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Forex Forum Archive for 12/05/2004

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KL KL 23:54 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Top of the day all, Short gbpusd 10 above...time for some retrace until 1 hr before London...imho of course. Make no mistake risk is on the long than short at this levels

Atlanta-South 23:49 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Don't follow USD/JPY, so if EUR/USD should continue up will your USD/JPY rise? I too am thinking of going long USD/JPY, but am long EUR/USD from 1.3439. Whats your thought on this? Maybe take current gains, then long USD/JPY. HELP would be appreciated.

Atl TJ 23:40 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone think we see some Fib retracement of last Fridays move or will we see only flat stuff before the trend continues. Personally I think a 38% is in the cards.

Dallas GEP 23:34 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Took USD/JPY long @ 101.95. Eur/Jpy should be able to hold 137.05 early. USD/JPY range will be tight more than likely I see 101.90 - 102.30 range perhaps in early ASIA

London. 23:22 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
ny amc Aud rising at such a rapid speed say to 80c plus would postpone any interest rate rises, , when and if Australia no longer looked such a greater destination for foreign capital.

ny amc 23:14 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
London. 22:56 GMT December 5, 2004
What was there reasoning for the mother of all corrections ?

John 23:09 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi thare,

I am beginner,is it good to take position during december,because i heard somebody say that market will b very volatile during this month.If so can anyone explain please.Thank u.

prague jv 23:04 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
PHILADELPHIA (Reuters) - The economy should grow about 4 percent next year, giving the Federal Reserve room to continue raising interest rates at a measured pace, Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero said Friday

London. 23:00 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
With the US complaceny regarding the Dollar, you have to wonder how far and fast they are considering raising rates .

London. 22:56 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Further rise in the Aud would certainly postpone any interest rate rises, it would also set the Aud up for the mother of all corrections, when and if we no longer looked such a greater destination for foreign capital. According to
Bridgewater Associates

prague jv 22:54 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
China looks set for a fresh bail-out of state banks ahead of privatisation.

prague jv 22:50 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
With OPEC set to meet this Friday, oil is poised to roil markets once again.

prague jv 22:48 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Price drop prompts oil quota call

Rising stocks are taking the heat out of the oil market
Members of the oil exporters' group Opec are pushing to cut back on rampant over-production to halt the fall of oil prices from their recent record levels.

Eilat Dolphin 22:39 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
CB 04:56/ Interesting and good!

prague jv 22:34 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply

Tokyo IM 22:29 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
gmorning all.

Moscow Hawk 22:21 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
It is really fun to look on how the euro does not want to give up. At least buck had good week against aussie and Friday did not bring new low in USD/JPY. In EUR/USD we again need to wait for intraday downside confirmation as it was after first bounce from 1.3385. So if going to play dollar from the long side the safest bet (as it could be in such situation) is longing it against JPY. Long possie with stop at 101.70 for the journey above 103.70 initially could work. Personally I had 101.90-10 as good zone for opening longs last Friday. Nothing has changed from this moment.

Good luck

London. 21:55 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar Has Weekly Loss; N.Z. Currency Strengthens

London. 21:46 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
NYC DJ, but not allowed to print article. go to the
website they have an english version

NYC 21:41 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
London, where did you see that headiline?

London. 21:07 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Top Economists ( Wise Men) Urge ECB Dlr Intervention ( magazine.)

Helsinki iw 20:29 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
The emergence of China may have something to do with keeping the price of the end-product, and thus measured inflation, low.

Livingston nh 20:20 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Juneau - Peterson seems more concerned over the last twenty years about budget deficits (especially Social Security/Medicare) rather than trade issue // Krugman, like a lot of economists, was predicting that the USD would fall in 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002 - there was some confusion in the ranks as the trade deficit widened (except 2001 when recession hit) and USD stayed "strong" // some folks argued that the inflation rate was restrained by 1% for every 10% appreciation in the USD - well, we have had a 30% adjustment but I don't see an additional 3% added to CPI (gov figures of course)

So I am wondering what do you think happens if our imports decline by 15% and our exports increase by 5%? Think everybody is going to be relieved we are making progress -- whose OX gets gored?

Juneau CAR 20:06 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Well, Halifax as Thomas Wolf said of Marshall Mcluen I think you hit a very big nail not quite on the head-grin. I agree that economics is as much a social science as a hard science, but you go too far in dismissing the science part, IMHO.

And one dismisses Peterson, Rubin and Krugman at their own peril. You don't think they are nuts do you -lol? Or just saying a bunch of stuff that is not true and they know nothing about? I mean Joe Blow from Kokomo cannot be treasury secretary-lol.

And I think the world intellect feels Rubin more or less knew what he was doing and Laffer had no idea what he was doing.

Last the great economist keynes who correctly predicted the great depression was put in the same box as Einstein as far as the intellect department goes and his ideas have stood the test of time.

The US dollar is not falling to just square some books. The dollar is falling because we have not managed our money well. The "reason" the dollar is falling makes a big difference and especially to traders. Our debts have passed 5% of GDP and that puts the worry in the red line area.


London. 19:50 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
During the 1920s, the cash-strapped German government acquired foreign capital through loans. Germany did not pay all of its loans back though, and the remaining bonds could be worth billions today. Now soldiers of fortune, speculators and lawyers are launching a money-hungry onslaught on Germany's central bank.
But taken together, these bonds could be worth around $500 billion today.

GVI john 18:51 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
MONDAY, December 6, 2004
09:30 GMT- UK- Oct Manufacturing Output: vs. +0.1% in Sept
09:30 GMT- UK- Oct Industrial Output: vs. -0.4% in Sept
11:00 GMT- GER- Oct Industrial Orders: vs. +0.8% in Sept
13:30 GMT- CDA- October Building Permits

TUESDAY, December 7, 2004
AUS- Reserve Bank Policy Board Meeting
23:30 GMT- JPN- November Forex Reserves
01:30 GMT- JPN- 10-yr Inflation-Linked Bonds Auction
05:00 GMT- JPN- October Leading Indicators
ECOFIN meeting
13:30 GMT- US- 3Q04 Productivity revision: vs. +1.9%
14:00 GMT- Bank of Canada Policy Decision
20:00 GMT- US- Oct Consumer Credit

WEDNESDAY, December 8, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- 3Q04 GDP revision, vs. +0.1% Q/Q
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Money Supply
00:30 GMT- AUS- Reserve Bank Policy Decision
00:30 GMT- AUS- December Consumer Sentiment
00:30 GMT- AUS- October Housing Finance
07:00 GMT- GER- Nov Wholesale Prices (date approx): vs. +0.8% in Oct
GER- Nov final CPI (date/time approx): vs. preliminary -0.4%, +1.8% y/y
UK- 2-day BOE MPC meeting begins
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:15 GMT- CDA- November Housing Starts
13:30 GMT- US- Nov Import Prices
15:30 GMT- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys

THURSDAY, December 9, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
23:50 GMT- JPN- October Current Account, vs. +Y1.744tln
00:30 GMT- AUS- November Employment
Jobs, vs. +43,700
Rate, vs. 5.3%
07:00 GMT- GER- Oct Trade Report: vs. +EUR12.0 bln in Sept
07:00 GMT- GER- Oct Current Account: vs. +EUR5.1 bln in Sept
09:30 GMT- UK- Oct Trade Report: vs. GBP4.5 bln in Sept
11:00 GMT- GER- Oct preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +0.1% in Sept
12:00 GMT- UK- BOE MPC decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims:
13:30 GMT- CDA- October New Housing Price Index

FRIDAY, December 10, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- Corp Goods Price Index, vs.-0.1%
00:30 GMT- AUS- October Trade Balance, vs. -A$2.11Bln
07:45 GMT- FRA- Nov preliminary CPI: vs. +0.3%, +2.1% y/y in Oct
OPEC meeting
13:30 GMT- CDA- 3Q04 Productivity/CU
13:30 GMT- US- Nov PPI: vs. +1.7%, +0.3% x-f&, see +0.6%, +0.4%
14:45 GMT- US- Dec Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment: vs. 92.9, see 95.1
19:00 GMT- US- Nov Treasury deficit

Budapest Szeri 18:47 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
About weekend quotes - You can follow the prizes (for example) at S4XO-HP, but it hasn't got much sense...

ny amc 18:46 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   

dc fxq 18:40 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
do you want int'l or us or both?


ny amc 18:37 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
GVI...John......can you post the calendar for the upcoming week. thanks

Makassar Alimin 17:40 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
mine is similar for other pairs except that usd /jpy is the same as the ticker above 102.60, in fact the last 5 min bar candle available was a big one from 102.08 to 102.60..hmm

FloridA vv 17:21 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
My tarde station is active, thugh I can not place trades it is still closed and will open in 2hours 12 min, Current quotes are gbp=1.9432, eur 1.3448, jpy 102.26 chf 1.1308, aud 7816 all bid prices

Pecs Andras 17:13 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Whatever is happenning over the weekend, the above tivker prices cannto be right.
Cable cannot have gapped down some 500 pips...

Bexhill Pas 16:36 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
The market is always open, providing of course that there is someone willing to trade. As there IS always operators willing to buy or sell, then the market is CLEARLY open. It all depends on where you choose to trade. Just because someone's own platform is not open for business, does not mean the market is closed.

If you can trade, it's open... just a great deal more risk at volatile times like this.

Sapporo Koishi 15:30 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Please correct me if this is wrong but I thought the market never closed, on Sunday mainly middle eastern banks tidied up their books. No-one else bothers to trade though as you have to take a day off sometime.

LDN 14:53 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   

Makassar Alimin 13:36 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
LOL, stupid ticker, almost give me a heart attack, it just cant be right: if euro is 1.3285 and gbp 1.8963, eur/gbp cannot be 0.6836; if euro and gbp are sold, how come aud goes to the moon? and if euro, gbp and eur/jpy go down how come gbp/jpy goes up...blah

Makassar Alimin 13:12 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone notice the censored ticker? just 5 minutes ago euro was 1.3450 and now it is 1.3285? usd/jpy 102.59, gbp 1.8963, usd/chf 1.1393 and aud 0.7895?
strange thing is eur/jpy 136.32 but gbp/jpy 199.35? i hope this is not true, if it is the opening price later, it is gonna be chaos

Hong Kong B747 12:36 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
to make it clear; it goes about EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY shorts.

gt all

Hong Kong B747 12:33 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
good evening to all,

going to use USD/NZD time deposits instrument to average the EUR/USD shorts; price of 1.43-1.47 is on cards during 2005/06 before the reversal towards 0.75-.0.78 around 2008/09.
EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY will take care of the yield with support of xxx/IDR/xxx (i.e. JPY, EUR & GBP) shorts (selling IDR big time!) for the money making factor.

it is going to be full of action; but using variety of tools is the key to maintain money making through the crazy fays to come.

gt all

San Diego DC 11:57 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin ,
For Monday there is also a remote possibility of not making a new top but just consolidate to make a lower top than the current one and then retest this lower top and get set for retracement.

Makassar Alimin 11:56 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 11:49 GMT December 5, 2004

thanks for the response mate, looking forward to your projection of retracement target before i put my entry limit order

San Diego DC 11:49 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin ,
EUR/$ for the week of Dec 6th based on time cycles:

12/6-12/7 a time cycle is due for most markets and the next one due 12/10-12/12 time frame

MY 2 cents on this is, Monday there are 2 possibilities

For both possibilities, there is a possibility first of some consolidation in the current price area and then

(1) Continuation of the upleg to make a top in the 1.3530-1.3550 area for a retracement due on Monday night or Tuesday till about the next time cycle mentioned above 12/10-12/12.
(2) Consolidation top in the area 1.3480-1.3500 area on Monday leading to the beginning of a retracement on Monday night/Tuesday until the next time cycle of 12/10-12/12 when the original trend (bullish) will continue.

As far as the down side targets for retracement go, I will be able to assess them only after this temporary top is made.

Makassar Alimin 11:40 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 12:27 GMT December 4, 2004

nk, another possibility, what do you suggest in case of usd/chf reaches 1.10 but euro hasn't reached 1.4088? which one is the leading indicator here? TIA

Makassar Alimin 11:00 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone think we are gonna visit euro 1.3230 next week? i am looking for long entry as i believe euro could still rise further or at least some consolidation in the upper range, been waiting for 1.3180/1.32 to be filled the whole of last week but obviously didn't happen, so i was just thinking whether i should lift the entry level as well to around 1.3230

if we gap up and rise further on monday, then i think i have missed the bull train completely, i also know there is a risk that the tide could turn should euro fall from the price now or higher to 1.3230, that's a dillema but as long as the sentiment is still dollar negative i am willing to take the risk at 1.3230 if seen with stop below 1.3180, important question though is that are we gonna see 1.3230 since every dips from now on will be bought by euro bulls? what do you guys think?

London. 10:12 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Schroeder says dlr fall could hurt world economy -paper German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said U.S., European and Asian economies would remain on a strong recovery track in 2005, but growth could be hurt by a sharp fall in the dollar, a Japanese newspaper said on Saturday.

Halifax CB 04:56 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Juneau CAR - 2 points:
1) Please don't use Canada as an example of good fiscal management; that is one thing it certainly is not. For example, a good deal is made of the fact that our federal government is currently running a surplus; what isn't mentioned are aspects like the fact it does so by off-loading a large anmount of it's deficit to the provinces (only three of which are in reasonable financial shape, and only one, I believe, is debt free. Most others have a per capita debt equal to or greater than Ottawa's). We also live through the largesse of Americans - from protecting our country to looking the other way when our pharmaceutical industry rips off American R&D to produce generic meds without any prior investment, and then sells it back to Americans. To say nothing of the the excessively cheap CAD, which has allowed Canada to get away with economic murder. I could go on, but the fact that Canada won't be able to Walmart it's currency anymore means this country is going to have to take on some level of self-responsibility (which I think is a good thing). But that's for the PF.

2)The markets are not yet in a panic. Maybe someday they will be, but right now the fall of the USD is quite orderly and controlled. Plot out EURUSD since mid 2001, you'll see it's essentially a straight line, with a couple of large bumps (we are in the middle of one now). When that goes very volatile, and perhaps supra-exponential, *then* we'll be in panic mode. But not right now.

3) There is nothing wrong about the dollar weakening relative to other currencies. America is trimming the fat so to speak, and making itself once again competitive. Although it is still the one world power, I think it is perfectly ready to step aside from the role of having to babysit Europe and Asia through their various identity crises, and let them both take on their full burden (including providing an equal share of reserve currency responsibility). Personally, I don't think Europe is up to the task, but we'll see.

4) There are no economic experts, really. It's not a hard science, it's somewhere between voodoo and sophmore psychology, complete with it's own self-sustaining sub-culture. I guess more or less like religion. But a science it is not (despite the inane mathematization of large tracts of it..) It can't predict, and it can't really be tested; and as for applicability, LTC put that one to bed quite awhile ago....Cheers.

Juneau CAR 03:30 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
Well, I'll tell you dc, Pete Peterson is a conservative and was Reagan's commerace secretary, Rubin a moderate and is revered (and trusted)by the whole financial world (except you-lol) as a great economic thinker and Krugman is a liberal many respect.

So you do not like world recoginzed economic thinkers either conservative, moderate or liberal, so just exactly who do you listen to-lol?

hk ab 00:27 GMT December 5, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 12:27 GMT December 4, 2004

Good morning nk.

Your "jump of" is "jump off" right? :D


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