Forex Forum Archive for 12/08/2004

LA Ty 23:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
why would there be a new gold exchange when you can already trade gold?

Sapporo Koishi 23:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
CB, logic would dictate just that, however pushing the price down will loosen the weak hands and this will produce the physical supply in the near term. The supply situation according to the gold bugs is much tighter than most of us realise and there is a concerted effort to keep the price down as not to let everyone know the emperor is naked. next year in a further effort to distract the masses from reality, a new gold exchange will be set up where you can have the chance to buy/sell/hold gold. This should push the price down as everyone will be trading paper gold. Let's hope no-one asks for physical delivery, :) have a good night out

NJ RT 23:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd going down again ... I still believe that we are looking at a good long possie. Do you guys share the same opp. If yes, where do you see the resistance point here. Thank you.

tk jf 23:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
well got my euryen wrong moved thru 40 but being aware of what trends were coming in eur from trading euryen saved the day and eur punched back higher - hope everyone learnt some lessons o/n and gt today

Brisbane 23:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Talk That West Coast Fund Sold Bunds Bought Treasuries

KL KL 23:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
in gbpusd long 1.9349 sl 7 below

london paul 23:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
still short my cable and eur from 1.9382 and 1.3354. Missed sell of A$, so wait a bit.

orlando jcr 23:42 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   


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KL KL 23:35 GMT December 8, 2004

Well one more chance to exit at 77 if you want it...start with +ve...cannot emphasize how important even with that...getting greedy now 68....50 then 1.89....LOL!!

I agree with any ++ trade is a good trade...
Like you & GEP, I like faster 5-15PIP trades and move on.

On this trade, my fumbling fingers messed me up.
I "accidentily" sold some GBP as it was rising quickly - didn't mean to and I froze my computer, so had to exit and come back in. At that point I was a bit upside down. I bought more at 88 to average it up. Got out at 67 +10... Got lucky that I the trend was going to favor me. Unfortunately I was stuck in a position that got me less actual profit, but sticking with the trend worked on this one.

I too was worried at 79/77 that I would be exiting w/o profit (cutting loss), but I had a feel that it was going to cross the mid BB, and I would be okay. Even got out a bit early it looks like. Looks to have bottomed at 63.

I have to leave for now, back in a few hours.

Halifax CB 23:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Koishi - sorry for the delay (I'm just getting ready to head out for the evening romp :). I don't follow commodity markets at all; but from what you've said - wouldn't the tightness of supply drive up the price?

Syd 23:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia getting harder through the twilight hours keeping awake thanks

KL KL 23:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
jcr, I had a look at the 5,10 mins and it is close to MA + short candle + my +3 pip crap....so bearing this in mind I was happy with 3 was planning to get out at my standard 8-10...so I was close to exit once in +ve...+ price action if you notice stuck at 79 and maybe 78 and was just not going lower so I am happy to exit to reshort again higher...build your pips first then ride later!!

Well one more chance to exit at 77 if you want it...start with +ve...cannot emphasize how important even with that...getting greedy now 68....50 then 1.89....LOL!!

chicago joe 23:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
euro's headed back to 1.33 and gbp back to 1.93 imo.

melbourne farmacia 23:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd - Likely we test support once again.

Syd 23:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
This is part of an IFR article anyone got a view on this.
The AUD/USD may have commenced a reversal that targets sub 0.7000

orlando jcr 23:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL,

If you'll take a moment to show me your philosphy...
Are you out because you see a reversal, or out because you want to move on to something else...

Just wondering what you are seeing...

Brisbane 23:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
NZ Rate Cut By June Still Likely - WBC

KL KL 23:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well jcr,paul I am looking to exit...out 1.9379 +12...start the day +ve...gain your confidence

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
some good amount for R & R here today

chicago joe 23:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Could it be they brought the dollar lower again so players left out by last night move can still buy cheap dollars?

Sapporo Koishi 23:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
CB, interesting thoughts, how about this? december deliveries for physical gold are very soon and the actual supply is very tight, hence the expected thrashing.

Syd 23:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia missed it fell asleep, do you think we will see a low today or not

melbourne farmacia 23:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL - nice pip raiding overnight mate.. GT

Syd - u buy the Aud bounce ? ... important support zone 0.7520/30. Local fund i have dealings with bought X amount at 30 fwiw..

Halifax CB 22:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Random thoughts - One thing I haven't seen mentionned that probably has helped the dollar a good deal is the positive moves in Ukraine (as well as trashing gold) - that news was out early this morning EST, though I don't remember what time.
Re Cad - interesting that the real blow off started at a level around 1.2070 - approx, the same level as the largest (and final) peak on the opening triangle running from the tenth to the 18th of nov. Running and Andrew's Cross on the 30 minute plot gives an interesting view of the potential channel, which excludes the blowout.
Re USDJPY - there was a neat triangle formation last night that basically performed in textbook fashion - note that the rise on exiting is approximately equal to the rise in USDJPY just before entering the triangle...
Finally, a reason to worry if you are long EURUSD Note the faster RSI plot on the bottom of the image; that has gone into OS territory five times since the rise in the Euro began, and on each of the previous four (we are in the fifth) there has been a significant correction. Note the grids are approx 400 pips high, each....

GL/GT...

Sydney 22:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian November employment data at 0030 GMT critical for near-term market sentiment. Consensus is for 10,000 fall in employment, which would end recent period of strength. Some economists warn of risks to downside, with data likely to be dragged lower by electoral workers leaving workforce after October poll. A poor result could see AUD/USD slip as it would feed increasingly dovish interest rate speculation dj

dc fxq 22:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
BTW, the MoF could have d0one the same thing and really hit the FoG panic button.

dc fxq 22:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Topic for Discussion

Central bankers are not terribly bright!. This morning, after days and weeks of blather about bemoaning the valuation of the Euro, the ECB missed a golden opportunity to crush EURUSD.

Get consider what may have happened had the ECB stepped in and done a small sale near the lows on the first bounce up and then spread the word they had intervened.

Any guesses where EURUSD might have bottomed out then?

Food for thought.

Mfld JM 22:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Grabbed some GBP short at 9389 looking for 9365ish. SL @9405

KL KL 22:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
well jcr, paul...we are close to this short term exhaustion run IMHO...don't be afraid to reshort higher with less pips loss if that occurs...ok looking better now...breathing better also for me..hmmm...up again...oh well let see...1, 5 ,10 min showing lower low ...gl gt

KL KL 22:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
in short gbpusd 1.9391 sl 7 above.

jcr...the price above is the bid...+3 spread offer is 1.9394...i will be stopped out at 1.9401

london paul 22:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL I am short cable at 1.9382 and short eur at 1.3354. Lets see!!

orlando jcr 22:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL,

I'm shorting cable at 86

wellington am 22:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
We got the kiwi wrong. Bollard and his inevitable 'leave options open" created more of a stir that it should. AUD/NZD is just an even better buy at these levels, but hey, don't listen to me.

Brisbane 22:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian jobs growth likely reversed in November rise expectation of 10,000 fall in jobs, unemployment rate to tick up to 5.4%, participation rate to edge tad lower to 63.6%. After weak 3Q GDP number last week, some economists say strong jobs scene doesn't gel with softening economic growth, raising possibility that productivity levels are falling. November labor force report due today at 0030 GMT. dj

KL KL 22:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
jcr, No by default 10 pips...on fast moving days like yesterday 7 pips....if I dont put anything, it is always 10....I usually mention it when I move away from my standard default of 10 gl gt

Well my gbpusd short has been taken out again -10 perhaps something is telling me to rest!! Lost 20 so far on this and that silly nzdusd trade....looking also to short eurjpy and gbpusd...it is getting very close to my trigger again...wait...wait

After standing back and having a look BOJ looks like they found the password and like Stealth turned it on...400+ mega pips in 24 hour....suprise I did not pick it up

orlando jcr 22:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL,

Just a curiosity question...
If I remember correctly, you usually put a 7P SL on your positions... Is that including the spread (that would only allow 3P on some flatforms for GBP)...??

Atlanta-South 22:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Quebec Swap:sorry, to many ones. 1.3420 it should read.

Atlanta-South 22:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Quebec Swap:thanks for your thoughts. See ya @1.13420.

Quebec Swap 21:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 21:30 GMT

Well 1.3420 would be great! but not likely in next 2-4hrs. Asian session seems to hammer down the Euro and then European session picks it back up. To get to 1.34 area we would need big money so if we see that it'd be more likely during european session starting 9:00GMT about imho

KL KL 21:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd at 1.9349 ...cannot sleep...this is like Christmas!!

Syd 21:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty DJ

LA Ty 21:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd> where did you get that info on U.S. Treasurys ?

Atlanta-South 21:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Quebec Swap: 1.3420 would be great. It looks like that could be seen in next 2-4 hrs. What do you see?

Syd 21:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Aussie Dollar has additional risk in November jobs data at 0030 GMT. With risks to downside in employment growth, support for AUD/USD could crumble further if data disappoint. Advises waiting to see jobs report before picking point to enter AUD positions. ABN AMRO

sofia 100ikata 21:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
we see now

Quebec Swap 21:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 21:07 GMT

What price are you looking to get out at?

Atlanta-South 21:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Quebec: I too felt the pain. It is easing somewhat now. What a long ride.

NYCNYCNYC 21:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Perry Como,
You linked issues site is interesting.

One item it doesn't have is Global Cooling, which is as much a concern to some scientists as warming is to others.

World economic growth is running the highest in 30 years this year. Europe can't seem to grow with the rest of the world, yet the Euro booms, is that sustainable?

Quebec Swap 21:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well still holding those Eur/Usd longs, and my limit @ 1.34 or about is around the corner. It was quite a bit of pain that I had to endure on it.

NYCNYCNYC 21:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Today's Euro break, whether that was intervention or not, was a nice dent for a change, but the mkt swinging right back is saying > if you are really going to intervene, you better bring BIG Guns. IMO The mkt wants the CBs to spend some money.

lon jr 21:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
hI KL..BEEN READING U..UR MY STYLE...JUST BOUGHT DOLL CDA..LOOKING FOR 12250-80 AGAIN

KL KL 20:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
This is boring out at +2 earlier gbpusd short...must rest now for 2hrs...gl gt all

Syd 20:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como thanks for that

KL KL 20:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
That was a silly play lost 12 for nothing...rats...ok back to my hunting ground short gbpusd 1.9337 -7 sl

perrie como 20:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
More than bonds is this we are concerned with Syd:
http://www.globalissues.org/

Syd 20:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
-If there was any doubt in the bond market about foreigners' appetite for U.S. Treasurys, overwhelming demand for $15 billion of new five-year notes auctioned Wednesday put them to rest.

Indirect bidders, which include foreign central banks and large institutional investors, bought $9.7 billion of the new notes sold, or 66%, a record level for this category in a five-year note auction.
DJ

dc fxq 20:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Also on the NYT, Snow has aggreed to stay on.

dc fxq 20:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Re Snow: also on IFR.

KL KL 20:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.9339 +6 looking to short nzdusd

in short nzdusd .7135...sl 7147...this one pip spread a bit wider...for short play till gap is filled or I am "Filled out"

dc fxq 20:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
MNI recently reported the Reuters had poosted that TsySec Snow had been asked to stay on thew job. No confirmation though.

Brisbane 20:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Aussie fell sharply as the soft commodity markets and weaker
Aussie data weighed on prices. The slide below 0.7550 triggered large stopsfrom CTAs and prices fell to 0.7521, where corporate bids waited. Bounces were attempted but largely lacked longevity. The RBNZ statement suggest a hawkishstance and Aussie rallied back to 0.7565. Traders are waiting for Aussie unemployment data and could see a sharp slide if prices trigger large stopsbelow 0.7490. Target is now 0.7400

mamun london 20:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
sell $/£ any body advice

sofia 100ikata 20:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
this is joke

Syd 20:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
NZ's Central Bank Leaves Cash Rate Unchanged At 6.50%

Chicago Irish 19:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well done KL.....you da Man!

KL KL 19:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Cannot shut eyes... out gbpusd long at 1.9345 SAR here and short +39 sl 8 above...trading days like these don't come often....maybe 2 coffee can do the trick...LOL

Rats should have waited on gold...should have could have!#%#%...$1

NewYork frankie 19:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
buying euro's here for a test for of recent highs in the next 2 days. It seems almost everyone has fallen for the old one -two regarding this false dollar correction. Stop at 1.3300

Chicago Irish 19:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc....nah but Gamblers Anonymous should turn up here any second now.........

wellington am 19:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 19:40 GMT December 8, 2004

Morning Joe, yes good 9AM - 12 minutes to go. Good call on ozzy kiwi. Yesterday's rally and sell off disappointed, but the timing with this thing is usually a rally preceded by an RBNZ announcement.

Juneau CAR 19:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
syd the CRB is also following the dollar. Inasmuch as both gold and the CRB are correlated with the dollar one cannot expect either to do anything contrary to what the dollar does i.e. if the dollar falls the crb will rise and so will gold.

They are not mutally exclusive.

NYCNYCNYC 19:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Been away,
was there intervention overnight and or this am?

TIA.

LondonJoe 19:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Auckland - think the rbnz statement usually comes out ay 9am your time?..... nothing is priced in for a move hike or cut today , expect RBNZ to be hawkish on the strong domestic economy however like every other central bank , RBA , BOC , SNB comment on the "unwelcome strength" of their ccy,,, all in all in my mind chances are the kiwi sells off post the statement , i like to buy any dips in aud/nzd to 1.06 to target 1.10-12 again

Brisbane 19:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas thats where I thought many thanks

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane 19:31 GMT December 8, 2004
aud : 7494. you can use my support resistant there to guide you where will chart target will go.

Brisbane 19:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas ok

Brisbane 19:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Pecs it normally is 9.30 local time , so probably one hour from now

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane 19:25 GMT December 8, 2004
about aud.. you can open my chart forcast at fxtradercenter.com. I prefer help you with the chart there. free !!

Auckland NZ peat 19:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
pecs
RBNZ statement sometime this morning, and its 8:30 AM here in NZ now-so, in the next few hours.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
good number of buying in gbp/usd chart is at 9147/34, maybe from here will up againn and then break that level for get 8953 as the extreme bottom.please thinking about buying level 8953 form now !!

Auckland peat 19:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I mean , is this sort of volatility normal in the Eur/US swap OR is this just skittishness due to these levels being historically high?

Brisbane 19:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas have you level for on the AUD tks.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
friends.. please focuse on ending phase of eur/usd at 3169/65 ,but if show you bid number 3155 thats mean ending phase is at 3119.

Auckland.NZ peat 19:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
me been asleep last 8 hours... wot a massive break down to 1.3190, pretty much wiping out a weeks worth of gains.
Tell me, is this sort of volatility normal in the Eur/US swap is this just skittishness due to these levels being historically high?

perrie como 19:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
most probably japan will continue to buy usd/jpy more than else

Pecs Andras 19:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Anybody knows when the RBNZ rate decision is announced? TIA

KL KL 19:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
fwiw I was out earlier on gbpusd short at 1.9192 from 1.9318. +126.. SAR there and out again at 1.9335 +143 and again SAR & short there....I cannot believe today...5 hours wait is like years to me....just INCREDIBLE...trading. Maybe juniors are still trading leaving it to computers to trade. Throw out TA as no corellation with Gold now....so music ended there now?? Don't be so sure...all a game just use momentum

ALso bought some Gold at 434...not sure why just felt it was cheap at that level sl 433.

ok out gbpusd short at 06 +29 out gold at 437 +3.0...maybe can buy gold lower again in Asian session at 434 again.

OK long again gbpusd at 1.9306 sl 12 below..11 pips sl is very generous for me....need some shut eyes..back in 3 hours...in auto pilot tp set at 1.9329. My sl is working again...yippie!!!

Atlanta-South 19:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep: Slow Stoch #'s you adv work much better. Have tried others before & these give a clearer signal.

LA Ty 19:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone think Asia will go short USD/CHF following todays pullback?

Syd 19:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Aud could run for 7490 in the twilight hours

Chicago CME 19:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Finished my sandwich. Now to get back to work. have a good day all!

Chicago CME 18:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wien. Yes, I probably should have worded my comment more carefully, but I think we are on the same page. no?

dc fxq 18:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
also this am in FT London there was an article regarding FRA and GER vs the EMU over exceeding budget deficit levels which weighed early in the day.

Wien GD 18:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME ... agree ... except: that bad sentiment is not caused by the war on terror! No one except the terrorists want terror. It was caused by the war on iraq (oil) and the related lies! That's not the same!

Syd 18:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
The CRB Index of 17 commodities futures market fell not quite three points, to as low as 276.36. traders say the technical damage has been done and expect the index to ultimately dip to 272.18 - 271.96 support. The signal for the move would be decisive trading below 277.35. DJ

dc fxq 18:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 18:50 GMT

WAG = Wild A$$ Guess.

Thanks for the info, I still have a best buddy whoi only trades IMM as he is also active in S&P and NDQ.

perrie como 18:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Guys....you seemingly are not considering Greenspans words, but those politicians only that have been elected with manufacturers support.

In fact having a low dollar wd be good for US exports, but will harm financial parameters and couse inflation to grow at least to levels seen in the 70s 80s, as Greenspan said.

Guess he (that after serving for 18 years is going to retiere by early 2006) knows much more about finance matters than any politician around.

Maybe for that time the only escape I see is a free floating Yuan and in between the total mess.

Inflations will rise globally and commodities are just half their long term started. Consder 6 bios consumers around the globe how much steel and copper and whatever else is needed to sustain growth.

There will be no growth or the commodity market and inflations will explode. This with a low or high dollar at this point makes no difference anymore.

Enjoy 2005

Dayton JAM 18:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
French PM [RAFFARIN] says domestic growth will be greater than 2% in 2004. However, in Q3 the economy grew at 0.1% q/q and 2.0% y/y. The last quarterly result was the slowest growth seen in a year despite government forecasts of 2.5% growth for the year. The PM's comments drew no reaction. There has been a Usd positive reaction, however, to the strong auction results. [EUR/USD] has returned to the 1.3300 handle, with contacts seeing smart names offering around the 1.3315/20 area just before the details were released. Spec and tech bids are expected to emerge around the 1.3275/80 area, while hedge funds were purportedly buyers on the break back above 1.3250 earlier.

there always has to be a reason, it could never be just plain old profit taking!

geneva 18:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dayton JAM 18:43 GMT December 8, 2004

No problem, I support Bush in many issue, but in the economics issue he is wrong, and His policy of a weak dollar to recovers on the back of the rest of the world will just isoliate the US. And trust me the is no more US cars in Europe street even with euro at 1.50.

Chicago CME 18:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
dc: W.A.G.????

Many CTA systems still derive their signals from futures rather than spot. The mid size CTA's can still trade 100% futures (even globex2 is deep and liquid). The larger CTA's will trade mainly spot. Some will trade both. As for %age split, i don't know.

MERC recently linked up with reuters enabling IMM prices to be quoted and dealt on a spot basis over the terminal.

Syd 18:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Factors which will affect commodity ccys going forward as in the article

YIELDS AND GROWTH
Those economies with a heavy commodities component, notably Canada, Australia and New Zealand, could suffer the most now that commodity prices have started to ease.
"If we're looking at the environment where commodities are no longer strong, these currencies lose their luster, ... and particularly with the Canadian dollar, if you are also missing the yield play, then it is not a place you want to be any more," said Wells Fargo's Beerling.
The Bank of Canada kept key interest rates steady at 2.50 percent on Tuesday, and on Wednesday The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.
The central banks of Britain, New Zealand and Sweden all meet this week, but all are expected to keep rates steady.
In Japan, the latest data showed the economy remains in slow-growth mode, suggesting the Bank of Japan was unlikely to change its super-easy monetary policy anytime soon.
In contrast, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point to 2.25 percent next Tuesday.

Atlanta-South 18:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dayton Jam: I agree. Can't they enter that forum just to the right. Everyone has a right to their view, we just don' t have to agree. GOOD JOB. Now lets TRADE.

dc fxq 18:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Chicago CME 17:52 GMT December 8, 2004
Saw some major liquidation by CTA's around the IMM open. Many were due to roll positions from Dec into Mar but instead elected to just unwind Dec

interesting post! what % of forex trade on IMM is ascribed to XTA activity?

When I was in a futures shop as a prop trader I knewq a number of CTA's who used the IMM for currency possies.

Any W.A.G. ?

Dayton JAM 18:43 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Geneva,
I misunderstood you're comments and apologies. there is no question that the weaker dollar is a positive for US on a short term basis; however, longer term the dollar will rebound as always

Syd 18:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
FOREX-Dollar gains as focus shifts to rates, growthThe dollar rallied forcefully on Wednesday as investors took a break from worrying about the U.S. current account deficit and focused on relative interest rate and growth differentials.

Chicago CME 18:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
US war on terror is a inextricably linked to a weaker dollar in so far as it results in anti-US sentiment abroad and a somewhat weaker demand for US goods/investments from Europe, Russia and Middle East. IMHO.

geneva 18:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dayton JAM 18:33 GMT December 8, 2004
I support 100% the us policy on terror, iS THE WEAKER DOLLAR IS A PART OF IT???. You can see the last night Japan GDP to see that there is no fundamental.

Chicago CME 18:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd: If the can$ continues to give back its recent gains then I would look for a rate hike to be back on the cards 1/25.

Chicago CME 18:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Chatter is that the strong indirect bid for the 5yr auction will probably help the dollar.

LA Ty 18:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone have any positions on USD/CHF?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CHF...2.24 + area sound like a good sell

Wien GD 18:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
geneva ... (1) what's the matter with you - you will end in guantanamo (2) this is a fx board - no politics (;)
gl, gt

dc fxq 18:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 18:24 GMT

the leopard has not changed its spots I see!

Syd 18:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Canada Monetary Conditions Seen Easing JP Morgan

Dayton JAM 18:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Geneva,
Then I guess we should have left terrorism alone? Obviously I disagree with you're political views; however, this is a trading forum and not one for political discussion!

Wien GD 18:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty ... in fact i trade cfds ... a lot easier than futures etc.
search for igindex (uk) or igmarkets (de).

LA Ty 18:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
US shoulda stuck to the Bretton Woods LOL

geneva 18:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
It isnt The current account deficit, its ONLY politique.
The world got ride of a small dictator(Sadam) and got a bigger one (Bush). All of us will pay the price of this unresonible politique.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I think 1.41 area

Syd 18:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Copper Sheds 3% On Profit Taking, Stronger Dlr
may see asia do the same today

LA Ty 18:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
wein> Hi, what broker/platform are you using to trade metals?

Amazing run yesturday. wow. That was due to someone dumping 15 tonnes of gold ? LOL

Philadelphia Caba 18:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:25 GMT December 8, 2004
GBP/YEn is a great short around 202 in general...should make it to 193 in the next 10 trading days...

May I ask you on your view on eurjpy, please?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/YEn is a great short around 202 in general...should make it to 193 in the next 10 trading days...
Should play around the figure 2 to 3 times...Might take a day or so...
Cad want's to visit 24 area then major drop I suggest You allow a few days for long term positions...
Cable will be strange for a few days

Wien GD 18:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
sorry ... choice

Wien GD 18:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ... all what counts are the deficits?! And the overall positive sentiment for the buck?
But we know ... all is well IN America, the superpower of choise!

Cape Town 18:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
$/ZAR been remarkably stable today.

dc fxq 18:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
compare economic fundame ntals between EMU & US pls

dc fxq 18:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
geneva 18:12 GM

yeah, right!

Makassar Alimin 18:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
well i think dollar will be sold again against euro and gbp after failing to keep its gain today, the break of 1.3280 is already bearish enough for dollar, the good thing is 1.3335 is still capping euro, interesting days to come

geneva 18:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
The US should start understand that Bush politique of a weak dollar, is a danger for the free world!!!!. Spaicaily when there is not clear fundamental.

Atl TJ 18:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP
61 - 1.9357
50 - 1.9323
38 - 1.9289

EUR
61 - 1.3339
50 - 1.3310
38 - 1.3280

Gep is getting lazy in his old age

Toronto Aviator 18:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:57 GMT
Hi GEP
I make the fibo for EUR/USD 15 min 1 day chart
38.2% = 1.3356
50.0% = 1.3373
61.8% = 1.3387
GL & GT

Chicago YM 18:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP for gbp i have 38.2 at 1.9366 and on euro the 38.2 at 1.3343

Wien GD 18:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... sorry i don't know how to do that ... anyone else pls?!

Philadelphia Caba 18:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eurjpy @ 138.96, s/l 139.16, any comment, please?

Wien GD 17:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... pls what's your take about usdcad in the near future?
I'm already nicely green & short ... but i don't know whether i should add some additional shorts?

Dallas GEP 17:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I am getting real lazy today, does anyone have the fib points calculated for GBP and EURO based on TODAY's range please???

Atlanta-South 17:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
If 1.3310 can hold is that enough to push it higher? Or it that just more correction before lower?

Chicago CME 17:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Saw some major liquidation by CTA's around the IMM open. Many were due to roll positions from Dec into Mar but instead elected to just unwind Dec. Remains to be seen if they will go long the Mar ccy's to get back into their short dollar possies. This runup in ccy's over the past couple of months has really saved their bacon. Their drawdowns were looking horrendous as of end Q3. Now many CTA's are flat to slightly higher for the year. A couple that I spoke with sound like they are pretty much done for the year. Year end parties begin this week and I think many of them just want to get pissed and put this stressful year behind them....

Atlanta-South 17:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD: Thanks for the response. I see the difference in gold & $ taking place now.

Juneau CAR 17:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
There is a 92% inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar.

Wien GD 17:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South ... gold goes the opposite direction the buck goes! Or similar: it move similar to eur.

Atlanta-South 17:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD: whats your call on GOLD near term? Thanks.

Cape Town 17:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
aas, one of the new U.S.-listed gold exchange-traded funds dumped 15 tonnes overnight.

Wien GD 17:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
london aas ... gold goes the opposite direction where the buck goes! (I'm also trading metals)

Dallas GEP 17:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ok then that gbp short out at -6 .

Wien GD 17:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I would say ... i love this market!

London Alex 17:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wow, what a trading range today. Someone buying euro bad at the moment and not letting up...

london aas 17:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold's taken a nosedive. Does anyone know why? Profit taking or is there something else?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp to pt at .6850

Ldn 17:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD Sellers emboldened, pushing for stops below 0.7510

Dallas GEP 17:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
K, Thanks!!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp from .6885

Wien GD 17:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... and IF ... only for your 1.3175!

chicago joe 17:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wien, I did notice the nice 600 pip move on the usd/cad, are you talking about that?

Dallas GEP 17:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Where from BAhrain???

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp and aus/yen...shorts...can't go wrong

Atlanta-South 16:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep: Thanks for those. What a day. GT GL.

Wien GD 16:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... no, no ... but that's simply a wild guess (;)
did you notice usdcad?!

Dallas GEP 16:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
15,3,3 12,26,9

Quebec Swap 16:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I'm going for the 1.3250 guys.

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Bailed on the euro long a little too early...OH well

Atlanta-South 16:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep: whats your adv for setting on MACD & STOCH.

Dallas GEP 16:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
WEll the 3250 guys are losing the battle I think Out at -7

chicago joe 16:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
on the other hand pound might come under heavy pressure due to gbp/jpy overbought conditions

manchester daniel 16:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
JF - in fact, been playing with VERY TIGHT stop losses for quite a while now - dont mind taking little hits to preserve the big wins.

For whatever reason, today the plan went pear shape - and was VEYR FORTUNATE to have recovered today. Still not quite sure myself why I allowed the position to go so bad - I am self analising now.

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well the 1.3250 EURO bidder boys are fighting hard!!! Need to have usd/jpy short some to provide some help to the guys sitting on 1.3250. Eur/Jpy will also need to stay bid at the same time

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
aussie/yen short...going for 78

manchester daniel 16:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Just taking a look at a GBP/YEN daily chart. A nice triangle pattern in play, off the March and August highs, the top coming in around 202.35.

The lower line of triangle off the march low and nov low.

A break of the top line, would give a measured move to around the 220 area. This would tie in with some research notes i have read indicating a target for GBP/$ in the 2.10 area.

Comments welcomed

manchester daniel 16:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Just taking a look at a GBP/YEN daily chart. A nice triangle pattern in play, off the March and August highs, the top coming in around 202.35.

The lower line of triangle off the march low and nov low.

A break of the top line, would give a measured move to around the 220 area. This would tie in with some research notes i have read indicating a target for GBP/$ in the 2.10 area.

Comments welcomed

tk jf 16:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
manchester daniel no s/l plan always been yr problem

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:43 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 16:38 GMT December 8, 2004
anyone has any opinion about gbp/jpy? TIA!

202 is critical...might wanna give time

Austin rb 16:42 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
can you post or give link to those macd stoch values thanks

Austin rb 16:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SW Florida

Can you post those macd stoch values or is there a way to find them

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thx Guido, I am HAPPY for u.

chicago joe 16:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone has any opinion about gbp/jpy? TIA!

Hong Kong Qindex 16:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is going to challenge the supporting strength of 0.7499.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:04 GMT December 2, 2004
AUD/USD : Current expected trading tradig ranges from my 44-day cycle reference (24/11).


... // 0.7499* - 0.7562 - 0.7625 - 0.7688 - {0.7751} - 0.7814 - 0.7877 - 0.7940 - 0.8002* // ...

SW FLA Fr_Guido 16:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP -- I've been using your MACD and Slow Stochastic you posted last week with my other tools and they work well. Thanks [I do use a shorter time period]

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1.3256 long now on EURO tight stop will see

lax-lgb SNP 16:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
€/¥ & £/¥ are higher (which will make for a good Xmas)
but €/$ & £/$ are not

which is going to pull the other ?

also
i followed JF 's cue (and loaded up on $/chf & $/¥) so how can all 4 views work my way pretty much @ the same time ?

hate to say it but when i'm good, i'm good and when i'm bad, i'm better ;-) haha

GL GT everyone :-)

Wien GD 16:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Also gold might start striking back ...

Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Closed rest or euro shorts at +20 @ 1.3260. Could be wrong but 1.3250 probably holds for this trip down

Makassar Alimin 16:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i think it will hold GEP, i expect closing price between 1.3250 and 1.3280

Wien GD 16:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP: imho the dollar-bloc and usdjpy start looking a bit tired ... bottom near or only a break?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy welcome to plan of top 105.14 or 104.34

see my chart !!

Hong Kong Qindex 16:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:20 GMT December 8, 2004
Spot Gold : Current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle reference (03/12) are as follow :-


... // 419.7* - 423.9 - 428.1 - 432.3 - 436.5* // 440.7 ...

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 16:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd welcome to 9133, eur/usd 3165, usd/chf 1776.
lets go to joint to that nice parade !!

Manchester Daniel 16:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon everyone - I would like to take this opportunity to thank ROUMELI ANKA who earlier posted a $/chf chart, which, helped me today ENORMOUSLY to get out of a very bad losing position.

Please refer to his earlier post and chart - in summary, he gave the idea that $/chf is in an EXPANDING TRIANGE in a 4th wave correction - this indicated an estimated top in the area of 1.1620. The idea seemed quite sensible, and gave me a chance to average out some ugly $/chf shorts from much lower.

My discipline was totally shot to censored today - and I am VERY LUCKY to have escaped today, even with a few ££ profit.

Of course, not every idea posted on forum is a good one - but that is up to each of us as traders to carefully select those posts which show the logic behind the suggestive play.

Just following someone who says LONG EURO or SHORT GBP is quite frankly, foolish. Please trade carefully (a classic case of "do as I say NOT as I do" - at least today).

I am in fact looking to get in on some short $/chf above 1.16 - that would correspond to long euro around 13220 or so. But I have also promised myself NOT to trade for the rest of the day as, while I have recovered my capital, I must also be 100% sure I have recovered my discipline - which was just TERRIBLE today. Good trades to all

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Jpy longs are keeping eur/usd up a little, probably only reasin we haven't see SUB 1.3250 but we will soon with usd/jpy longing

gold coast martin 16:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:03 GMT December 8, 2004
...Once aussie under 7483-89...you can forget about 79 for at least 8 months...be careful.....

Syd 16:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold may weight in Asia now down $435

Dallas GEP 16:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SS yes I am short from 1.9288, TP is 1.9260

Dallas GEP 16:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
OK actually 1/2 SHORT EURO lots out here at 1.3265 for +15, rest at BE at 1.3280, looking for break of level

Los Angeles ss 16:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP -- have a sell on cable at 1.9284, are you in short position as well with cable and what is your short term target?

Makassar Alimin 16:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
if euro 1.3250 holds again, i'll try some long from here and will see how i go before NY close

Dallas GEP 16:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Will take 1/2 the euro shorts out @ 1.3260, put sl on rest at 1.3280 and will see if 1.3250 breaks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Longing Aussie could be rewarding for 1.7950 area
Might need time to adjust for next rally if any

Syd 16:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London selling off before close, shows which way market thinking

Dallas GEP 16:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1.3297 is stop on Euro short BUT this will probably be quick +20 and out

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/Yen at 202...slighty risky to keep long

SG Kan 15:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
What is your s/l on the euro short. TIA

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
nice chart today :-).thanks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
been having some troubles with assuie...
Daily data sugest buy but hourly sell...
??
Maybe Hold..??

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1.3280 short on EURO

Syd 15:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Definitly Commodity Currencies on the Chopping Block

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3353 1.3123 Hold Hold
USDJPY 106.6121 102.8254 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9374 1.9097 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1702 1.1478 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5377 1.5315 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7682 0.7384 Sell Hold
USDCAD 1.2415 1.2165 Hold Hold
NZDUSD 0.7175 0.6906 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6897 0.6866 Sell Hold
EURJPY 139.1457 138.0509 Hold Buy
GBPJPY 202.2246 200.3605 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.5008 90.0347 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2380 2.2219 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7725 1.7389 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6322 1.6216 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9360 0.9149 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 79.5386 78.1528 Sell Hold

HK Kevin 15:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 15:34 GMT, many thanks. Will trade with great care on this pair. So far, technical readings doen't support my fundamental view that capital flow into Japan should be stronger than the EURO zone.

Syd 15:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUDUSD
AUD/USD dropped below all supports today aiming for 0.7520. If this level breaks we can move to 0.7435 as next level. Resistance to be found at 0.7700
sexy bank

perrie como 15:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
okidoki...personally think in some days we are going to se 1.3 eur/usd printed out...today might close higher or even lower, not yet clear so I ll not bother those guys adjusting from bond flows job next hours.

good dog

Brisbane 15:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
US Treasuries surge as short dlr positions unwind
NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A burst of foreign buying sent long-term Treasuries surging on Wednesday as the market showed considerable resilience heading into a $15 billion auction of new U.S. government debt later in the day.
Traders reported heavy buying of longer-dated debt rumored to be partly from central banks and partly from investors taking profits on short Treasury/long German bund positions. These positions have been all the rage during the dollar's decline, but a steep rally in the currency on Wednesday triggered a wave of book squaring At the same time, investors were piling back into curve flattening trades -- borrowing short and lending long on a bet short-term debt would underperform in an environment of rising official interest rates.The other feature this morning had been heavy foreign buying in the long end as hedge funds and the like take profits on short dollar/Treasury positions. That could also bode well for the five-year auction," added the dealer.
He noted a $3 billion five-year mortgage offering on Tuesday had been snapped with foreign investors taking a whopping 62 percent of the issue

perrie como 15:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin...tks not exactly the same, as thinking eur/jpy might go higher....note the USD/JPY stuff too glued for now, guess might drag the eur/jpy pair higher if recovers above 105

perrie como 15:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur bund bailout might be only if those prewar bund-gold related stuff cames out of courts. guess soon to call a bail-out but mostly all german gold reserves will be segragated, this yes might well be.

g/l

HK Kevin 15:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Last call to reload long USD/CAD near 1.2180 for 1.25

Atlanta-South 15:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw: Very well said. I totally agree. Much better to be in the money than GREAT. Always GOOD to get your comments. Thanks.

GVI john 15:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thaks all

HK Kevin 15:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 15:15 GMT, it's expected to test the 10-day ma again. Covered all my short from ~1.3440 at 1.3280 and 1.3230. Just short small again at 1.3280 for intraday.
Still hold some long USD/CAD
My short EUR/JPY from 138.60 still look OK.

Helsinki iw 15:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane, I´m hearing rumour of massive unwinding of Bund-Treasury 10y spread play unwinding. Prime suspect is Vega, but no confirmation.

Brisbane 15:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GVI john check IFR page header

Genoa nic 15:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
John, earlier on briefing.com was rumored "a cross-country switch between bunds and the US is going through." ,FWIW

Roumeli anka 15:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
usdchf : broadering wave-4 completed. I think next path is down to new lows.

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf812.gif

GVI john 15:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane do you have any details about the rumor? TIA

Brisbane 15:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Rumors Of EUR Bund Bail-out Heard

Syd 15:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Aussie not getting much reprieve wonder if London will sell before they close .

Halifax CB 15:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
And we are out again, a little wiser :( .Time to call it quits for a little while, since the market seems to be moving against the $ st, but I don't see any sign of a sustainable trend in either direction (within my stop loss tolerance) at the moment....

perrie como 15:15 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin ..basically I do agree...more $ appetite to come, my dog asked some for dinner too.

Makassar Alimin 15:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
agree there GEP, i think euro could go up again as long as 1.3250 is well bid

Dallas GEP 15:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1.9288 short GBP

Helsinki iw 15:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 14:29, No I didn´t, however I think whomever you are thinking about, he is not the only one. It´s a game of risk management in order to achieve returns that are sustainable over time. That is the hard part, not becoming famous for risk taking. Everybody can take risk, but not everybody can make that risk generate returns.

London. 15:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin your right

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Even EUR has formed a temp top, the pair can bounce back to 1.3320 level before saying goodbye to 1.3400 level. Sell here.

gold coast martin 15:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London 15:06 GMT December 8, 2004
The great cycle of forex..''yesterdays villains are todays heroes"...and it continues....g/t

Dallas GEP 15:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Oki eur/usd has established some support around 1.3250 so it looks BID at that level for now

London 15:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate He (Van Gecko) got some stick on here with his call, but knowing him from the past ,always correct even thought the market doesnt comply immediatly

Dallas GEP 15:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GD this is pip raiding while it is trying to make up it's mind LOL +9 OUT

Ldn pm 15:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 10:43 GMT December 7, 2004

Great call yesterday on Eur/$......presume you are out celebrating !!

Rivonia PipPirate 14:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London. 14:37 GMT December 8, 2004
... its two weeks overdue, but your timing excellent as always
I wonder if this sentence could be classed as an oxymoron?

Rivonia PipPirate 17:40 GMT October 22, 2004
Projected low 4 CAD today was 12345. Nice # .....
Projected high for today 12345. Still a nice #

Livingston nh 14:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane - RBA and BoE (MPC) have inverted their respective yield curves (with very little "official" inflation figs for support) - in consumer based economies that usually takes its toll

Wien GD 14:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... you still stick with it? ... usd will further long, means another xxxusd selling wave? I'm not sure yet.

Dallas GEP 14:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1.3263 short

Brisbane 14:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Cooling housing market keeps rates on hold
The end of the housing bubble has been underscored by a fresh plunge in lending to property investors.
The value of home lending fell 3 per cent in October, with investor lending plummeting 8 per cent.
Lending to housing investors has now fallen by almost a third in the past year, while new borrowing by owner-occupiers is down nearly 8 per cent.
The soft lending figures affirmed the Reserve Bank board's decision, announced yesterday, to leave official interest rates unchanged at 5.25 per cent
This means rates have been left on hold for a whole calendar year for the first time since 1995.
The cooling housing market may have taken a toll on consumer confidence, which fell 2.9 per cent this month, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index, released yesterday, showed.
ABC

perrie como 14:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
My sage dog says market is entering in mumbling moode, time to take for a walk.
Interesting market moves, however not so clear at present.

Halifax CB 14:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well, back after a shower & a shave, with more long$ positions right across the board. GL.GT...

Moscow Hawk 14:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ok guys. Have a good coming holidays. I hope 2004 was good for you. 2005 will be definitely better.

London. 14:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:35 btw good call, its two weeks overdue, but your timing excellent as always.

pakistan sajid 14:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:32 GMT December 8, 2004
you must be billionaire
as u can do 100 percent trades
if u want to do chairity some time
we people deserve it more(kidding)
thanks

Quebec Swap 14:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well still holding onto long Eur/Usd, and I have to admit that was extreme pain! I'm still anticipating for a 1.34 retracement. It seems like that push lower was trying to squeeze out a lot of small players imho.

Dallas GEP 14:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well 1.3273 short on euro should work GB

melbourne farmacia 14:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
OMIL – hi mate.. u caught me during a primal moment… fingers to slow covering positions.. hope your well too. GT

prague viktor 14:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 13:35..yeah mate MIB they just started the show.. they started it slowely and softly that is the first part from the show hopefully to the xmass we can see ur tgt 1,295-1,30 G/T G/L

Wien GD 14:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... aud and jpy already turned around ... now next wave?

Atlanta-South 14:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw: Thanks for the reponse. It is too early to tell. Some improvement is being made. W/O calling names, did you know who I was speaking of when I said GREAT TRADER? GL GT

Paris MAXX 14:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
dont think the down move is over for euro...think will will rest below 1.32 again today....

Moscow Hawk 14:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP, perhaps move s/l a bit higher could be better. 1.3260-00 in EUR/USD and 103.70-00 in USD/JPY could be good supportive zones for dollar intraday. Good trades.

Hong Kong B747 14:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
placed s/l @ ++100pips in total for the day...i went the wrong direction but lucky me that I do not use s/l.

BUT, if daily range passed 350pips per pair/cross I would gain some white hair...it did not....lucky day and I am off!

gt

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 14:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 13:42 GMT November 25, 2004
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088...Hi friend....!!!!

...It's posible we will see yours 1,4088 this year...!!!!

Im sure for that friend..
Kiss Gioyrka @ porto team frome me..

Cu all next year 200 5!
Wish all the Best and take care!

Cross my hurt!
nk

Hong Kong B747 14:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
just saw the 'stops' shark blowing due to over food :)


gt

NJ RT 14:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP thnx .... I think I better wait for a bit ... see where is going

Makassar Alimin 14:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
it looks well supported for the time being, snap back below 1.3250 will negate it somehow

Tallinn viies 14:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
DJ: Talk circulating that forex-related central bank buying in the long end may have caused the March bond futures contract to jump around eight ticks ahead of the start of the open outcry trading session

Chicago Irish 14:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Prague it is "brutal" and no doubt welcomed by Trichet's truffle buddies

prague jv 14:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I d like to know , if this move is in measured pace criteria for ECB and is anwelcomed as any other volatile day

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I have immediate resistance for eur/usd pair around the 3260-70 and 3300-10 area for now.

Dallas GEP 14:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Rt could try 60 but need 1.3290 stop

Makassar Alimin 14:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
euro is coming back, or is it? more than 50 pips bounce from low, second wave of selling coming?

NJ RT 14:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP what about now @ 60 ?

Dallas GEP 14:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
OK bullish spurt right now on EURO could long to 1.3280 first

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Big elephant is protecting this level (3170-80 for the eur/usd) or something to that effect as they did back in 11-26. Next retracement number is 3140-50. A close under the 3270-80 area will help the bears on this nice attack they have mounted in the eur/usd pair.

Dallas GEP 14:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
RT, YES that is good level 1.3245 is not bad either

ny amc 14:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
HOUSTON...ST...............WHERE are you buddy

Helsinki iw 14:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta, I don´t know at all, I think we are in for lower levels still. Should the euro turn up again from there, it is very possible that the recent top won´t hold, but it is far too early to tell. For me at least.

Halifax CB 14:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW- Gold also took a pounding against the $ last night, down 20$ against it's recent highs of around 455$.

NJ RT 14:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP absolutely right .... it did broke the 3220 barrier. I'm thinking to short it again @ 3247-50

Atlanta-South 14:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw: could 1.3450-70 EUR/USD be expected as it was just days ago? Or, is that over for 2004? Whats your thoughts on that possibility? Thanks.

Hong Kong B747 14:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
alimin, holds for today; but we have two days to go this week and next week is another line on the weekly charts.../- 1.29 is a sure thing!

gt all

Ldn 13:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold may be now helping aud drop with more fund probably cutting positions

Halifax CB 13:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Have to say nights like the one that just ended don't come my way often enough. I'm out now and am off to relax. But the fact that it was a buy-$'s-right-across-the-board night means something is afoot. CB's? Position Squaring? who knows. Time for a little research, perhaps...

Dallas GEP 13:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well usd bears are starting to fight back here a little. Close euro shorts 1.3195 manually and then euro jumped up. Still think we go lower tho. Wasn't smart enough to reverse and catch some on way up. Looking to short some more. Trying to find right level

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:46 GMT December 8, 2004
Hope you are well mate. Can I have your shrinks number I might need it too. LOL :-)

Makassar Alimin 13:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
looks like 1.3180 is holding well, no?

Tallinn viies 13:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Im out. siht happen.
classical stop hunt
cu tom.

Moscow Hawk 13:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
So we have seen EUR/USD below 1.32. Hope most of you were ready for corection and not burned.Now no need to hurry to catch the low.

Good luck

Helsinki iw 13:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Should read 1,3140/50 not 1,3440/50

Helsinki iw 13:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ First decent support at 1.3440/50 level, if broken expect sub 1.30 to be seen within the next few days. Again, EUR/USD is well o/s on intraday studies, so beware of snap-back action.

Makassar Alimin 13:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
lol get my position and lose it straightaway, flat now....waiting for dust to settle down first

Brisbane 13:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Comex February futures dropped over $15, or more than 3%, to below the $440 per ounce level and to three-week lows

pakistan sajid 13:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:46 GMT December 8, 2004
thanks

Dallas Mauricio 13:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Woke up, got my daughter to school & shorted cable @ 1.9275. Out of 2/3 of my position for + 27 pips average. Trailing stop on last 1/3. The beauty of this is that now I am fully rested instead of half awake!

prague jv 13:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
fxq , falling knife market good description .

Wien GD 13:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... 1.3175 will hold?... woah that's a day!!!

Ldn 13:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
The level most ananlyst have talked about on Euro 1.28 ish

melbourne farmacia 13:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
pakistan sajid - My psychologist doesn’t allow me to make comments anymore… after that primal scream episode GT

1.9173

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Next support for gold is 430-35. The pieces are in place as other pairs start the $ correction and I believe the eur/usd should follow soon.

Hong Kong B747 13:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
when the JPY sold all over the board, we see that USD hammers all...but funny to see EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.

I start thinking the FEC is located in Tokyo :)

gt

Brisbane 13:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Spot gold has broken through support at $440 a troy ounce and fallen to a 3-week low at $436.85/oz

Hong Kong B747 13:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
adding GBP/JPY USD/CHF GBP/JPY shorts here....looking to cool the potato :)

gt all

Ldn 13:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko if its anything like the duck poo we get around here, not a pretty sight

dc fxq 13:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 13:33 GMT

we are in a "catch a falling knife" scenario here for EURUSD. Like you I have some S/T scalping levels based on O/S readings but went long and then flat twice with minor losses. :)

Makassar Alimin 13:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
yeah take my limit entry if you want! 1.3253, stop loss below 1.3220

Syd 13:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Problem was most missed the run up on the Euro etc as it happened so fast caught many off guard,

van Gecko 13:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
G.day viktor 12:43.. indeed those MIB are doing their job frustrating the 1.35 pushers.. below 1.32 look for a 'throwing in my last towel scramble' down to 1.3000/1.2950 elevator shafts..

Ldn 12:35.. some well placed Goose dungs landing on whoopsy is not a pretty sight..

prague jv 13:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd . there are oversold levels on short and short scalping levels now , but for your view on couple week , we are still long way to oversold
we today break out of overbought

Brisbane 13:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Massive double-top on the longer term charts after the recent failure higher on Aud.

Budapest Daniel 13:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I'd like to join as well. LOL.
Bad market conditions + beginner = less money :)

Syd 13:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
prague jv more looking for an oversold entry for a bounce , however just a bit wary whether this dollar rally is for real

Dallas Mauricio 13:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
No. I am turning it around now.

Paris MAXX 13:23 GMT December 8, 2004
Well I can safely say that I have had an awful year in 2004 trading...am I alone?

Paris MAXX 13:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well I can safely say that I have had an awful year in 2004 trading...am I alone?

prague jv 13:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd , better levels to buy will come , but not today giving the time frime you provided imo .
The risk here is you will hold hot potato . Give it more time to find levels its self . all imho

pakistan sajid 13:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:10 GMT December 8, 2004
hi
any comments on cable
i do feel you are 100 percent ok on cable
but u do speak too less
tia

Brisbane 13:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Spot gold prices dropped from an early high of $450.65 to a three-week low of $443.85 overnight, and dealers have allowed for additional price slippage over the course of the day should fund players continue to bail out and potential buyers remain scarce rts.

Atlanta-South 13:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GOOD POINT. At one point he was GREAT, but your not great if you blow out. In his mind he probably didn't feel so GREAT. Thanks for your input YOUR SO RIGHT.

Syd 13:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia yes I was looking around that area
however, it really doesnt seem to want to stay above 76 really being wacked today

Helsinki iw 13:15 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
What makes a blown-up trader a great trader?

Syd 13:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
prague jv next two weeks

Atlanta-South 13:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Platform stop hunting is a great possibility. Wouldn't that be beneficial to those doing the hunting? One GREAT TRADER said he never sets a stop, only mental stop. But, he blew up @ one point.

prague jv 13:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd . What time frime You looking at for aud ??

gold coast martin 13:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....There is heavy duty resistance at 7489 for the aussie...it may take a few attempts to breach it after bouncing of it ...good for 30-40 pips to the upside....if this level is breached then its lighs out......g/t

Dallas GEP 13:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
CDB Well that's why on quick trades I work the stops with the close positon screen. THEY will stop hunt on you YES, some platforms worse than others,

melbourne farmacia 13:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd 13:02 GMT December 8, 2004
Next potential bounce level 0.7530 ish

pakistan sajid 13:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
seems like euro is set to touch 1.3240
and cable to 1.9205
gl and gt

Syd 13:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Looking for level to buy Aud, any views on that please

JHB CDB 12:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP, I was just wondering, a couple of traders I have spoken to reckon that the platform do some Stop hunting of their own. Taking out the small kids on the block.

In your years of experience, what do you think?

Halifax CB 12:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
RE. EURUSD, one of the indicators I use is a 13 period moving average. This indicator is well into the overbought range on the weeklies, which has happened 4 times since the start of the current bull run in EURUSD over 2 years ago. After each one of those, there was a significant retracement (although the one in March of 2003 is arguable...). The problem is that it seems to take from 2-5 weeks before the top is fully developed, which is plenty of time to lose lots of money. FWIW, I am short EURUSD (last night a bunch of different short $ S/L's got hit, so I figured with that kind of across the board mv't, it was worth going long $. Which I still am, though things have certainly slowed a bit...)

Makassar Alimin 12:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out for 25 pips and flat again, looks hard now to go beyond 1.3335
if those elephants gecko mentioned before find it hard to get out at their target 1.3370 then i think we are heading for lower euro maybe

Dallas GEP 12:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
CDB, most of the time yes, If doing very quick trades I will pull up the close position screen so I can close manually

Atlanta-South 12:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies: Thanks for response. I too agree, 1.3225 - 85 offers what now appears good support. I'm long just above that. Will try to hold. GT & GL

London 12:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
A trickle of EUR/USD sales were seen going through on break below 1.33, says trader, and this could become a rout if 1.3230 area is broken. That level has supported prices over the past week and he thinks technical stops will be posted around that area. Sees risk below to 1.31-1.30.
DJ.

Brisbane 12:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
A corrective tone is emerging in EUR/USD,. A slip below 1.3387 and 1.3335 after failing to overcome 1.3470 highs leaves 1.3280-75 vulnerable ahead of 1.3229. Break here, , targets 1.3160. Now at 1.3313. Monument Securities

JHB CDB 12:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP, do you put a SL order in on your platform when trading?

prague viktor 12:43 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko..G.day mate! ( men in black....) are doing there job by a great way ..step by step what the next level is 1,323?1,318???G/T

Tallinn viies 12:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 12:36 GMT - rock solid. area from 1,3225-1,3285 is huge buying area. where money seems to be in hand surely. at least today. tommorow maybe different story but today Im more than happy to buy euros down to 1,3230.
which is complicated at the moment due Im almost full of size

KL KL 12:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Alimin....Short gbpusd again at 1.9318 so + 20 sl 7 above.. reverse plug???LOL

KL KL 12:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Alimin...LOL...if I am running SOROS funds maybe I can help....now all of us are among sharks...my total funds available is like Soros 1 pip loss...ok for your sake I pull my hands off the plug at 1.9298 +10 and SAR & long here...sl 7 below...hopefully,...ready for the rocket...hey it works...LOL..this is magic!!!

Atlanta-South 12:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
To those who are still long EUR/USD as I am, what are the thoughts for direction in the next 4-8 hrs? It appears to keep pushing below 1.3300. Does 1.3250 offer solid support? So far it seems to. I to am feeling the pain from being long. Should we take pain medicine or "BEAR" the pain?

Ldn 12:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko well lets hope those elephants had dont their whoopsy first and it doesnt land on us.

van Gecko 12:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 11:25.. top heavy elephant bulls are looking to 'SOB' in front of 1.3350/70 before 1.3250.. still flying up here in the 1.22 skies with the $Goose?

Quebec Swap 12:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Good morning.

Well I'm still long Eur/Usd and feeling some pain. I averaged a little more expecting a rise toward 1.3400 level.

Tallinn viies 12:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
from DJ:
European international bond fund managers are slightly long EUR against USD, says DrKW. "After capitulating on the EUR downside, after the decisive break of 1.30, fund managers started building up EUR longs with estimated average price around 1.3150." Expects further closing out of small long EUR, but deems it neutral for EUR/USD.

Antwerp Tom 12:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Just a thought: market tends to inflict damage and going back to 1.29-1.32 will hurt more than going back to 1.34...imho

Makassar Alimin 12:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
haha ya this could turn out to be nasty with us shooting at each other LOL come on KL, go long gbp and help us here

JHB CDB 12:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP

I was Long EUR/USD just to be stopped out below 1.3290, funny the market retraced to that spot and came back, so I don't know if it was a platform thing or a market move, but I am sure getting tired of being on the wrong side of the trend.

gold coast martin 12:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:05 GMT December 8, 2004
LOL...You are been watched ......seriously ,if you are worried about that,play the aussie as the big boys are in exit mode..provided you follow their direction......g/t

Los Angeles ss 12:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts on cable at these levels?

KL KL 12:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9308

London Alex 12:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Makassar - The big guys themselves are trying to get in, as they have also missed the boat....

Makassar Alimin 12:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
with most of us trying to buy euro everytime it gets close to its day low, i am just a bit worried that some big players will notice this and take all our stops in one go, i hope they don't use the idea i put forward yesterday ;), mind your stops please guys

London Alex 12:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 11:56 - My guess is that there are many other like yourself who have missed teh boat, waiting for a retracement that wouldn't come. I think this may shape up like last thursday where there was a quick dip, and then back up. There are too many specs, especially large ones, who are just waiting to get in. And ofcourse, the seasonality in the euro has been quite constant these past 3 years - major strength nov/dec/jan. I was long from 1.20 and sold about a third of my position at 1.3440s, now repurchased that third at a lower level and looking for the next target 1.35 to break. The only question I have is what the trigger for a move through 1.35 will be.

Roumeli anka 12:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
usdchf : i was expecting a flat correction as wave-4 (white line) , but we see an expanding triangle instead (black line).

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chfd2711iii.gif

KL KL 11:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out long gbpusd at 1.9293 +20. 104.20 looks good for some shorts IMHO for usdjpy...so waiting...in eurjpy short again at 138.55 sl 10 above...out 138.42 +13...flat now!!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Helping in the aid of the bulls for the eur/usd pair is the eur/jpy cross which is bullish at the moment with resistance around the 138.70-80 area. If support (137.70-80) is taken out then the bears will have the wind to their backs and the assault on the bulls will continue IMHO. GT

Tallinn viies 11:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 11:50 GMT - iyessss :)
uuahh. I have been waiting for opportunity for weeks. first time during couple of weeks euro made somekind of correction!
bought a lot. up to my neck.
perfect opportuny as stop put under previous week low which was only 60 points away. nice r/r ratio if target still at 1,3475/1,3500.
here we go now...
cheers

Makassar Alimin 11:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i mean my main limit entry 1.3253 was not reached...stop loss for this long 1.3290 is just below 1.3280, should this be breached then opens gate for my 1.3253

Tom, if you got it right, then we will meet again down there at 1.325x

Antwerp Tom 11:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Viies, how come you're so sure that this correction/retracement will not take us to 1.3250 or 1.3180, it's the first time since long we are having a more substantial correction (which is overdue anyway) and 1.3330 seemed very heavy this morning short 1.3312 fwiw (target 1.3250) GL GT

London Alex 11:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Talinn, you are the man - nice call.

Tallinn viies 11:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
did you see?
held again.
move over 1,3335 would indicate downside test is over and 1,3400/05 will touched again before NYC close imiho

Makassar Alimin 11:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
this is c.r.a.p, main target is not reached! long again euro 1.3290

London Alex 11:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 11:41 - I think you are right. Too much buying interest at these lower levels providing support...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
My two cents worth on the eur/usd pair although the support is holding for now what once was support (3320-30) is forming a resistance for now. I do have some more room for the down side so if the bears decide to take out the key support (3250-80) there should be more down side and 3170-80 will play a crucial support for the bulls IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 11:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
didn't see post RT, out at -7

Paris MAXX 11:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Went long of Euro/$ @ 1.3295.........

KL KL 11:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long at 1.9319 +13 out eurjpy +4 at 45.

short gbpusd 1.9312 ...wow ...dropping like fly...locking in 3 pips out 1.9273 +39...SAR long here sl 8 below...Maybe Managers have come in now. Looks like everybody forgot about BOJ these days...must be sleeping soundly now after months of observing the markets...LOL

Tallinn viies 11:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
support at 1,3280/85 should hold I think.
offers great opportunities to go long here and stop under 1,3220. target 1,3500

Hong Kong B747 11:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
the moment of true for JPY pairs/crosses just began; if they will not go 20pips over the current prices than we (the shorts) will collect some pips; if not, than we donated some :)

gt all

prague jv 11:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I have reasentli reseived 3 attempt from someone to send me a virus . messige ( information , stolen and fake )

it is in official hands and it has been investigated .

Just letting somebody here to know , thats all .

I did not meant anythink personl como .

Brisbane 11:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Best to own short-dated euro puts compared with cable puts as it's not convinced cable will retrace as much to the downside if the USD decides to rally. Euro implied 1-mo vol around 9.45%, cable at 9.10%
Bank of America

Dallas GEP 11:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Closed out -7 on eur/jpy short...looks bullish

perrie como 11:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
prague jv ...It's an university official website....no harm from serius guys around

Ldn 11:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Break in EUR/USD below 1.3370 is bearish, and signs are that a temporary top is in place. A daily close below 1.3350 will further bolster this view.
HSBC,

prague jv 11:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Carefull with virusses below

KL KL 11:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
in short eurjpy 138.49

perrie como 11:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
It might well be that humans are originating from the following basic specie.

How we were: http://www.science.psu.edu/iceworms/smallbwworm.gif

LA Ty 11:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
tx guys

Syd 11:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty http://quotes.ino.com/chart/

NJ RT 11:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP what's your s/l @ eur/jpy ?

Wien GD 11:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty ... free realtime quotes: search for igindex (uk), gold and silver at netdania

LA Ty 11:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
omg, booring.. ZZzzz maybe I should sleep for a few hrs.

Halifax CB 10:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Some China/EU background.

Dallas GEP 10:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Short eur/jpy 138.37

LA Ty 10:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
may i ask where you guys get your gold and oil prices?

Brisbane 10:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London AM Gold Fixing $445.75 (Prev. PM $451.80)

Brisbane 10:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Poor performing Aud taking a big US-Dollar hit

Hong Kong B747 10:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
if you think that the war in Iraq may influence FX trading, then read the following link:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/12/07/iraq/main659664.shtml

gt

KL KL 10:43 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.9306 sl 10 below...maybe show have ended juniors managers have taken dealing desk...LOL

KL KL 10:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
What do you mean quiet...so quiet that my sl did not trigger while I ran out to get some munchie...now that is quiet...rats...now I have to stay up to nurse all my possie...on th e positive side out gbpusd at 1.9305 +22....who is complaining...2nd life given, taken, and thank you broker!...err broken??!!

Makassar Alimin 10:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
maybe we have seen today's range? aud got to 0.7584 but quickly bought back, usd/cad went to above 1.22 but also sold, euro is still well off its low for today same to gbp...i think only further move in gold, should it drop, will move euro

Dublin Flip 10:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
FYI, Eur has risen over 5% against Ozz in the past 2 weeks.

Gen dk 10:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brisbane 10:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro May Rise 1.8 Percent Versus Australian Dollar, Technical Chart Shows

Hong Kong Qindex 10:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Helsinki iw 10:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ The dollar seems a touch overbought on intraday studies, so we may need to rangetrade for a while, at least until NY comes in, but the correction from 1,3475/85 could very well have abit more to run imho.

Hong Kong B747 10:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
alimin,

maybe we all will find that the storm is only within a cup of tea; looks like JPY lows for the day already set.

the a.m. imo only and gt

LA Ty 10:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
yes, quiet...ZZzzzz

Makassar Alimin 10:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
vely vely quiet, calm before the storm

B.A. BOCA 10:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London. now that some sanctions have been lifted, Lybians are going on shopping sprees in the US with their oil dollars...

london iain 10:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 09:56 GMT December 8, 2004

Couldn't agree more. It is a very serious point to note. This market may not, in fact, self correct - at least from current levels. Usually spec driven markets are fairly easy to predict, but the problem is that structured money is the driver at the moment. Indicators continue to suggest that usd are oversold, but these don't take the above into account. Like you, i believe that until imm positions are much higher there is only one way for the dollar to go.

KL KL 10:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
shorted gbpusd 1.9427 sl 7 above...lets see

London. 10:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA there is someone with a bit of sense

LDN LDN 10:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ldn pm ( -reuters.

B.A. BOCA 10:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
TRIPOLI (Dow Jones)--The government of oil-rich Libya is not moving toward favoring Euros over the U.S. dollar, despite the recent devaluation in the U.S. currency, the country's Finance Minister Mohammed el-Huwej said Tuesday.

"There is no particular policy," he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in the Libyan capital. "We look at exchange rates and interest rates and what we need to import and then make a decision." He added that although
strong, the euro could well fall in the future.

"What we're trying to do is to strike a balance between our purchases and our sales," he said.

El-Huwej's comments follow a report by the Bank for International Settlements over the weekend that there is a "subtle but notable" drop in dollar-denominated deposits held by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

These deposits were run down to 61.5% of the total in the second quarter of 2004 from as much as 75% in the third quarter of 2001, the BIS said.

Ldn pm 10:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN 09:50 GMT December 8, 2004
Should you not indicate your source for this comment ??

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Day trade
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3388 1.3239 Hold Hold
USDJPY 104.4698 103.2025 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9375 1.9189 Hold Buy
USDCHF 1.1589 1.1434 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5359 1.5299 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7701 0.7488 Hold Hold
USDCAD 1.2277 1.2045 Hold Hold
NZDUSD 0.7185 0.7031 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6914 0.6889 Sell Hold
EURJPY 138.5953 137.9577 Hold Buy
GBPJPY 200.8397 199.7137 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.3826 89.9392 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2277 2.2140 Hold Hold
EURAUD 1.7661 1.7364 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6302 1.6088 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9326 0.9166 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 79.6074 78.2021 Sell Hold

KL KL 09:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP...ha ha ha...speaking from experience it seems....LOL...I have made that error especially when you have 3-4 open position that are short and long...and the finger just trigger the wrong buy sell....that is why I try to play one currency at a time...easy no brainer trigger...no need to double or triple check...5 seconds can mean 20-30 pips sometimes in fast moving days like today....even worst on data release day.. GL GT

London Alex 09:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN 09:50 GMT - Thanks for your posting. It is a very interesting debate, however, surely every investor worth his salt already realizes that the EU will enter recession again in 2005? This is unavoidable with a $1.33 on euro. However, despite this widely held belief, euro has soared in recent weeks. This follows the almost exact same pattern of the past two years, when november/dec/Ja were very strong for the euro. One of the key overlooked drivers in european repatriation flows, and forward hedging requirements. This time you also have asian CB diversification fueling the move. In fact, the greatest argument for a higher euro is the fact that new highs have been made on declining spec positions; usually specs lead the way. Thsi time real moeny is leading the way and the specs are looking to catch up. That's why any serious retracement on eur/usd remains out of the question until spec longs return to the higher levels of a few weeks ago.

London. 09:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
When you consider most of the Central Banks off loaded their Gold Reserves around $250. it shows what mistakes can be made by the so call knowledgable ones. The same goes for all this tallk against the USD once the US economy has fully recovered the ones who jumped ship will be paying the highest to get back on board.

Hong Kong B747 09:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
*** must read ***

EUR/JPY above 138.40...sorry for the mistype!
also, USD/JPY above 103.80 is good for 30-40pips



gt all

Hong Kong B747 09:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF: above 1.15 is a good short for 30-40pips
EUR/JPY: above 137.40 is a good short for 50-60pips
GBP/JPY: above 200.60 is a good short for 90-100pips

if works good; here are daily 170-200pips

gt all

LDN LDN 09:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Despite its recent record highs there's still plenty of uncertainty about where the euro is heading in 2005. EUR/USD is seen closing 2005 at $1.2930; but estimates range widely between $1.15 to $1.39 potential euro weakness include a widening Fed/ECB interest rate differential and consistently disappointing European growth, coupled with eroding surpluses

Makassar Alimin 09:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
ok closed the small long possie at 1.3328 for 30 pips, will be flat if main order is not taken today

manila stubbs 09:42 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 09:27 GMT December 8, 2004

i think thats kuala lumpur, malaysia

Singapore 09:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
sage dog followed by an echo dog LOL

Tallinn viies 09:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
planning to cover some of my longs near 1,3360/65 fwiw

Dallas Mauricio 09:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I have made that mistake.

Dallas GEP 09:30 GMT December 8, 2004
SAR is correct KL. Some platforms make it difficult to MANUALLY stop and reverse tho because they will only let you manually close the same number of lots you opened with. In THIS case, a market order has to be done at twice the number of lots as the original order going the opposite direction of course. CAREFUL tho because you can inadvertantly go the SAME direction as the original order resulting in tripleling up your lots!!!!

perrie como 09:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
My sage dog says an optimal day for intervention matters

Dallas GEP 09:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SAR is correct KL. Some platforms make it difficult to MANUALLY stop and reverse tho because they will only let you manually close the same number of lots you opened with. In THIS case, a market order has to be done at twice the number of lots as the original order going the opposite direction of course. CAREFUL tho because you can inadvertantly go the SAME direction as the original order resulting in tripleling up your lots!!!!

Dallas Mauricio 09:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I'm going back to bed for a nap. 2 Cable shorts for +47 pips.

Ldn 09:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
European bank trader says after 4-5 weeks of constantly being on the bid, Asian accounts and Far East CB bids are absent from EUR/USD this session.

Dallas Mauricio 09:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks KL KL. Where do you trade from (KL doesn't ring a bell for me geographically).

Dallas GEP 09:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LOL M, i have done the same thing many times

Dallas Mauricio 09:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
You're right! My bad, it's tomorrow. I hate getting up @ 2AM!

Dallas GEP 09:21 GMT December 8, 2004
Dallas M I don't see UK data out today???

KL KL 09:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Mauricio, SAR is a term I use to close and reverse the position I was previously in, doubling the previous entry lots...maybe should use CAR....eh...heard or Wooloomooloo??

Makassar Alimin 09:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
have faith, but stupid gold is not helping, it is dancing around 445, if it falls again then i am looking to sacrifice that 1.3298 position and regroup for main 1.3253

Dallas GEP 09:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
M my schedule doesn't show UK data is out. What report is it my friend???

Auckland peat 09:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
a couple of quick rather desparate shorts on Eur/$ recoverd 16 pips , so I will live to trade another day! As I said I'm new to this and its all very exciting (tho I know I am meant to remain impassionate haha)

Dallas Mauricio 09:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I'm flat before UK Data.

Dallas GEP 09:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas M I don't see UK data out today???

london paul 09:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i just closed a dec short position which i had bene running since 444 at 445 much better than it was last week at 457!!
Must learn the lesson of firm stops!

Dallas Mauricio 09:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
UK data in 22 minutes.

Tallinn viies 09:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1,3280/85 very strong support.
lot guys plan to buy above this support and stops and last week low apprx 1,3220 zone

Syd 09:15 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Paul thanks for that thought i had a miss reading again. cant believe the drop in such a short time

london paul 09:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
spot gold is 444.69/445.24 Feb 446.8/447.6

Hong Kong B747 09:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: first place to long from my point view is 1.2880-1.2920 when wild markets can bring us even towards 1.2710/50 within the next 10days.

gt all

LA Ty 09:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
dang, lost some money.. i think ill stay out for a while until we have some better movement.

Makassar Alimin 09:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
euro is ready to go up now? no? got small long at 1.3298
main possie is still waiting 1.3253

Syd 09:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Anyone got the right price of gold , I have $444 is that correct
seems a bit low

Dallas Mauricio 09:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL KL, please define SAR and from what part of the world do you trade from? TIA

KL KL 08:48 GMT December 8, 2004
out gbpusd 1.9417 +28 SAR and short here sl 7 above.

Sing GD 09:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Sam - From IFR fyg

EUR/USD: 1.3290 Found As Sell-Off Shows No Sign Of Abating] London, December 8:

[EUR/USD] hit 1.3290 as the sell-off take took root in Asia shows nosign of abating. Buyers have now pushed a slight bounce into spot but dealers are now eyeing 1.3240 support as a short-term target. USD short covering is being cited as no one singular name moves trading. Dealers are now looking to book their profits ahead of the key event risk of US FOMC and US trade data due next week, where a good number could see the slight USD bounce turn into a full
correction if a strong trade number is released.

KL KL 09:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out long -4 at 1.9299...I am a miser today...flat and seems music is stopping

Genoa nic 09:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, I misread your previous post

Sing GD 08:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well done brave Currency shorters yesterday , sometimes we get lucky and make a few pennies to buy a few cold ones ..

Canada Wootbear 08:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Genoa: Simple moving averages 7/11 day for USD/JPY and 9/18 day for USD/CAD.

ldn SAM 08:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys...Any specific flows/news behind $ recovery??? Thx to whoever takes time to answer...Good day to everyone

London Alex 08:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Looks like eur/usd has seen its bottom for now, no will to go lower. Bought at 1,3295, holding for 1,346

KL KL 08:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out short +16 at 1.9301...maybe trying to consolidate here...not waiting and taking my pips thank you...SAR long at 1.9303 sl 7 below

Tallinn viies 08:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
bought more euros at 1,3295 just to lower b/e.
will liquidate it near 1,3400/05

KL KL 08:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd 1.9417 +28 SAR and short here sl 7 above.

Melb mpfx 08:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw // Usd/Chf.. If swissy can get through 1.1555/60, which is last weeks high, it will be the first time in 7 weeks it has been able to break the previous weeks high...........
GT....

LA Ty 08:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
lol, i scalped 30 pips

KL KL 08:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
long gbpusd 1.9389 sl 7 below...maybe madness not over yet

B.A. BOCA 08:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
for cable watch 9264 as gateway for 9170-90..

Genoa nic 08:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Wootbear, what MAS are you talking about?

KL KL 08:42 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out 1.9292..+29 -10 that took care of previous loss..short usdjpy 103.97 as well...out at 91 +6...flat now...some how the madness has ended...sigh

Canada Wootbear 08:39 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
9/18 daily MA bullish crossover happening in USD/CAD FWIW
7/11 daily MA bullish crossover happening in USD/JPY FWIW

Dallas Mauricio 08:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone! I didn't have time to post. Shorted Cable @ 1.9326 out with 2/3 of my possie for +30 pips avg. Still short with 1/3 of possie. GL/GT everyone.

London. 08:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
The growth in China's industrial output likely slowed further in November, economists said, as factories started to feel the impact of the country's recent interest-rate hike.
China's central bank raised lending and deposit rates on Oct. 28, so the industrial output data for November will be the first full-month figures to reflect the impact of that new tightening measure. "We look for China's industrial output growth to weaken further in November...because of the government's tighter policies, the squeeze on profit margins, and the rapid growth in inventories," Lehman Brothers economists wrote in a research note.
Reuters.

LA Ty 08:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
wow, just made 30 pips selling both EUR + GBP...

KL KL 08:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
whoops sl taken relong again 1.9263 lets see

LA Ty 08:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I already went short EUR + GBP. couldnt resist.

KL KL 08:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9340 out usdjpy at 81 + 8....amazing trading day...what is happening..i dont know...amazing that both usdjpy and gbpusd went down together...someone is getting cross line.

locking in 5, 10, 20....wow...out 1.9282 SAR and long here +58

LA Ty 08:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
man, GBP/USD just spiked. hitting support

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 08:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Expecting a little more bounch of $ vs euro and vs chf..BUT THEN......a further fall of $ vs euro and vs..chf

Simple $ will fall further and that bounch was a confirmation in my opinion.
USD/CHF for me is a sell around 1.17/1.18 for target 1.07 and lower

Thats all i think..
have a nice morning..

nk

Brisbane 08:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Offers At 103.80 Filled As Dollar Extends Gains

LA Ty 08:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone going short EUR ?

London Alex 08:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD - Also, remember it is repatriation and hedging season starting now for the euro multinationals. Apparently (although this is unconfirmed), most major multi's have done very little hedging and are over-exposed to the dollar. Expect multinational buying, combined with continued CBD panic buying from Asia to contain any southbound move at 1.32s....agree short term the pair is looking shaky and I won't think of reentry until stabilization at lower levels.

LA Ty 08:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
see, some EUR support @ 3306 area. The wick just hit it and formed a hammer. (5 min chart) I dont see a definite sign of the Eur/USD going short yet. BUT, maybe soon :)

honolulu Byron 08:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ideal top of GBPJPY may be 201.70~80 from my chart reading:
http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopicp-209.html

KL KL 08:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
short usdjpy 103.89 sl 10 above

Genoa nic 08:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Ah, 200 h ma breaks while I’m typing, let’s see where it ends. BTW , on 9 GMT ends the bar on my 4 hour chart (eye on 50 ma at 1,3340)

London. 08:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Trader says liquidity starting to be a problem in FX mkt, sights cables 80 tick move in a matter of minutes earlier this morning. He says if EUR/USD can't make it back above 1.34 pretty sharpish, those short-term players sitting long may get a bit jittery and offload some of their positions which could cause a sizable slide.

KL KL 08:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
ok out at 1.9328 +43 from 1.9371 short...this is good...I mean Great trading day!!

Makassar Alimin 08:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 08:12 GMT December 8, 2004

you maybe right, let's see if this is a preparation for friday tradition lately of selling usd even on good news

Haifa ac 08:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Seems like Gecko was only a few days premature.

LA Ty 08:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
correction.. i cancelled the order.. dont trust the market yet.

KL KL 08:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
some major banks have KO options in cable at 1.9250 and 1.92 for today.

locking in my 1 pip gain at 1.9370...hope it runs down to KO those options....locking in now my 10....15...wow 20 ...wheee!!

Won't be suprise to see gold at 429 and still uptrend still intact...may or may not have influence on currency at these levels...I am sure quite a few hedge fundies are realising their $$$ now ...maybe this is the take profit week...who forgot to announce this fact....WHO!!!!??? ...LOL

LA Ty 08:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i sold EUR/USD at 3323. see what happens

Genoa nic 08:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all
Euro/$ on 200 ma again on the hourly chart, which contained every dip since early November… too early to be exited, but a with clear hourly close below the pair could a test low 1,32’s, IMVHO (key support pre NFP 1,3235)

London Alex 08:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Let's not forget how far Eur/usd has come in this past week, some retracement is not ony inevitable, but necessary. I sold a large chunk of my position at 1.3440s and now looking for reentry around 1.31/1.32. Remember, there is no US news until Friday, so specs may take some money off the table until then. But the most important reality to keep in mind is that eur-usd has rallied these past few weeks despite a substantial cut in spec positions. This suggests real money has driven the move, not the specs. Many specs are kicking themselves for missing this move and will surely try to get back on the bandwagon on any 1-2 cent retracement. When specs decide to jump back on the eur-usd bandwagon, then this buying, along with continued CBD buying from Asia, is sure to push Euro to $1.40 during January.

Makassar Alimin 08:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 08:03 GMT December 8, 2004

yes, bulls look desperate to regain 1.3350, maybe they should retreat first and regroup with me in 1.32 level today to launch some counter attack
but should gold take more dive, i dunno what else to say

gold coast martin 08:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:48 GMT December 8, 2004
.fwiw///..the current direction of the caddie may be indeed confirming the future direction of the euro..g/t

,kk Bolshevik 08:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 08:04 GMT December 8, 2004
I am getting ready to short gbpusd

how do you prerare yourself for that?

Canada WootBear 08:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Cable broke 100 hour MA, but bounced off hourly TL from Nov. 23. Sell blip mode now unless you think we are going to 2.00 GBP/USD.

London. 08:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Trader says cable looks vulnerable at current levels with talk of a large sell order in the wings in excess of GBP 2B.

KL KL 08:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9371 sl 7 above

B.A. BOCA 08:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
gold taking a beating...444.95

tk jf 08:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
la so 08:04 GMT December 8, 2004
moron

KL KL 08:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I am getting ready to short gbpusd

LA Ty 08:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmm a lot of bear pressure on Eur/USD. Only time will tell.

Sydney 08:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
$A losing its grip
Analysts say if the Canadians are worried about the impact their strong currency is having on growth there, the central banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to be harbouring similar concerns.

"The same argument used by the Bank of Canada in keeping rates unchanged can be applied to the other two dollar bloc currencies," said National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos.

The stalling of dollar bloc currencies is seen as related to an apparent peaking out of global growth assets generally, with commodity prices, mining and materials stocks all in retreat in recent days. This in turn reflects a fall in global leading indicators.
afr

china qq 08:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
..not really sure, ...1.3330-40 this area already hitten 5 times, but broken..if broke this area.. 1.3280-1.3300 will next stronge surport area.. i believe...just watch.... however, no really good reasons to push eur down so fast...there r tons of people still wanna buy eur since days ago...

Makassar Alimin 07:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i think so too, the drop is too quick in asian session as well, will see how other sessions think, i dont think euro bulls will give up easily, maybe fast down and fast up today

B.A. BOCA 07:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China's accumulated foreign reserves exceeded $540 billion at the end of October, a People's Bank of China source told Dow Jones Newswires on Wednesday.

The continued rise in the hard currency reserves to a record high comes amid pressure on China to relax its tightly anaged exchange rate regime to allow the yuan to strengthen against the U.S. dollar.

The central bank source didn't provide a specific figure for China's total reserves.

China's foreign reserves, the second largest in the world after Japan, previously rose to $514.5 billion at the end of September.

London. 07:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Traders say overbsold technical signals and increasing verbal intervention from European and Japanese officials are beginning to rattle the market triggering profit taking and reduction of exposure.

gold coast martin 07:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
As posted before,until we see the 13085 level breached on the euro,we are still in a dollar weakness mode....g/t

sg kan 07:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Do you see further retracement on this pair before moving up? Please advise. Thanks

china qq 07:46 GMT December 8, 2004
good to buy eur at this level... hehe

B.A. BOCA 07:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
good day all....commodities are screaming dollar correction, but reversal is too big of a word to use now. too many deep pockets out there, even under eur 132.

Ldn 07:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Mark Smith Corporate FX on CNBCeurope live say that CB may assist on the way down !!

china qq 07:46 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
good to buy eur at this level... hehe

Sydney 07:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD being dragged lower by weaker commodity prices, compressing yield spreads with the U.S. and sympathy with the collapse of the CAD. Analysts were a bit surprised how well the AUD/USD had held up considering the negative factors. The buoyancy wasn't to last very long. Around mid-morning a hedge fund sold the AUD/USD through 0.7725 prompting a few more funds to join in and stops below 0.7695 were triggered before a brief pause at 0.7680. More heavy fund buying of USD against the AUD, NZD and a few Asian currencies resulted in more stops below 0.7680 getting triggered to a low around 0.7645. The USD strength against peripheral currencies eventually spread to the EUR and JPY and the AUD/USD remained heavy as a result. It appears that funds have decided to take profit ahead of year-end and they were seen selling shares in Australian blue chips that they have held for much of the year. If this is end of year squaring up the AUD/USD could slide a lot deeper. A natural resting point would be the 38.2 fibo of the 0.6850/0.7945 move at 0.7530. IFR

gold coast martin 07:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 07:20 GMT December 8, 2004
your estimation is correct..low 75s is a reasonable level to expect in the next 4-5 days....bear in mind that as we get closer to the 16-19th of december(dates that there will be a mass exodus of fund and spec. money from the aussie and kiwi) the de-acceleration of both these 2 currencies will increase......g/t

Syd 07:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
What is a concern is China with the currency being floated and or intererst rates being raised their exports will be hit causing a slow down over there.

gold coast martin 07:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 07:11 GMT December 8, 2004
SYD...Agree with your line of thinking in relation to interest rate differentials been a -ve for the aussie....an even more worrying thing for the aussie is the drop in commodities due to a world wide slowdown....should we see funds exiting, the commodoties price index correcting further and a fear of interest rate cuts all within the same timeframe than i think we will see the poor kangaroo slaughtered with a 10 big figure knife.....For now as i posted previously 7620 is immediate resistance and if breached 7578 is the next brick in the wall....g/t

Makassar Alimin 07:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
looking at the price action, 1.3280/1.3290 euro is worth a try long if seen later, keep the stops in place, could turn nasty if london and new york boys decide something different

Syd 07:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk many thanks for that advise Employment out tomorrow is said to be on the soft side which also will cause a bit of stress to the Aud

sydney gvm 07:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
hi martin - I had to change a bunch of aussie to USD a week or so back @ 78.50 - now deal has fallen through so I will be buying back aussie before xmas - whaddya reckon? Low 75ish a reasonable level? dont wanna get greedy - TIA

Moscow Hawk 07:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd, inability of AUD/USD to hold 0.7600-30 will open 0.7480-10 for a test. Personally think that taking profits on aussie 0.7600-30 from higher up and opening fresh shorts in EUR/USD is not a bad way. Good trades.

Cape Town 07:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
martin 7:11, don't forget ZAR.

gold coast martin 07:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
For those traders that think beyond the next 24 hours ,nzd is stil a good shorting opportunity for a 2 week timeframe....since nz is way ahead on top of the interest rate tree it will be the first central bank to start cutting interest rates...nzs domestic woes are similar to australias but at a more advanced stage.....since the kiwi has been an outstanding performer in attracting foreign flows due to interest differentials,it will shed a lot more thaan others as funds and specs. exit the market before the festive season....g/t

Sydney 07:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin one of the worries re- aud if the US are putting rates higher early next year , can see the differential suffering considerably being a real negative for the Aud especially if Japan look like they are headed for recession

Brisbane 07:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australia's economy is heading for a soft patch, giving the Reserve Bank few reasons to retain any suggestion of a tightening bias. decision this week to keep rates on hold at 5.25% comes as the growth engines of recent years, housing and consumption, now splutter and gasp. The slowing of these two drivers also sits uneasily alongside an export sector which isn't firing up as policy-makers had expected. Economic growth in Australia over the next six months and longer appears well and truly skewed to the downside. The economy carved out growth of just 0.3% in the third quarter cutting annual growth from 4.1% to just 3.0%.
Add into the mix the high Australian dollar and it becomes clear the Reserve Bank would scratch to find any justification for a rise in interest rates in early 2005. Housing finance fell 0.2% in October, to be 16.5% below its level a year ago. Meanwhile, finance to property investors was down a massive 8.1% in the month, or down 32% from a year ago.
If Stevens delivers in his speech to the Australian Business Economists annual forecasting conference, he'll bring the central bank more into step with the money markets which have been pricing in a rate cut for many months. If it is possible for doves to crow, it will be loudest from Stephen Koukoulas, chief strategist at TD Securities and Kieran Davies, chief economist at ABN AMRO. Both hold the view that the next move in interest rates will be down. Neither have been proven right, but sentiment is shifting toward them and the money market has been supportive for months. In the wake of the latest housing data, Davies predicted the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates in 2005 as residential house prices weaken, sapping confidence and demand. Koukoulas said the markets have had to swallow the fact that 2004 was the year that the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged. dj

lon jr 06:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
theres something up at 70..and cable at 65-70..my guess is that we gonna dump again...aussie just offered so far just like yesterday..sold cable up here looking for 20's again stop 75

KL KL 06:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
out Short at 1.9360 +12...best watch a bit more...

KL KL 06:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well that was a nice run on gbpusd long from 1.93 +72 SAR short 1.9372 sl 13 above...a bit generous with sl today...a bit coocky too...must be the food..this IS trading day my type!!

Ldn 06:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Aussie cracks lower Fund selling

singapore 06:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Asian CB on bid 1.9300 Gbp fwiw.

Syd 06:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
BOJ may be already doing their part ??

Syd 06:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Could get the CB coming in on this move and giving it a push

London. 06:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LME Copper Falls On SHFE, Weak Yen

Syd 06:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk and Aud canyou give your view plese

Sydney 06:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Down, Talk Schroeder To Talk Currencies

Moscow Hawk 06:37 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY has met my first target 103.70-00 and there is still more upside for the pair in sight.

"Moscow Hawk 22:21 GMT December 5, 2004
It is really fun to look on how the euro does not want to give up. At least buck had good week against aussie and Friday did not bring new low in USD/JPY. In EUR/USD we again need to wait for intraday downside confirmation as it was after first bounce from 1.3385. So if going to play dollar from the long side the safest bet (as it could be in such situation) is longing it against JPY. Long possie with stop at 101.70 for the journey above 103.70 initially could work. Personally I had 101.90-10 as good zone for opening longs last Friday. Nothing has changed from this moment."


Now we have also got downside confirmation in EUR/USD and I think pair is ready to go below 1.32 in coming days.

Action on majors and exotics definitely shows that we are currently in dollar positive environment. So take care with the dollar shorts.

Good luck

tk jf 06:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 06:33 GMT December 8, 2004
hahahahahahahahah thats a good one

Ldn 06:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD continues to fall; dips below 0.7650 to 0.7644 session low. ABN AMRO's David Mozina says getting "clobbered" by commodity price weakness, relatively poor performance by local equities, dovish BOC tone overnight, expectations of steady RBNZ tomorrow. Hold off on AUD until local jobs data tomorrow; data has potential for downside as election-related jobs drop out, he says. Pair last at 0.7659
dj

chicago joe 06:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
None may hit :P

SAIHAT What_he_found_when_he_lost _you 03:20 GMT December 8, 2004
one indicator said to me....WILL HIT

EUR 1.3460

AUD .7800

CHF 1.1349

GBP 1.9480

JPY 102.51

CAD 1.2033

time will tell...some may hit some not

Brisbane 06:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian Leading Employment Indicator Falls In Dec
AUSTRALIAN businesses expect a slow start to the new year despite an anticipated spike in sales and profit for the December quarter.
The Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) business expectations survey, released today, showed the outlook for sales, profits, employment and inventory growth in the March quarter was well down on the previous corresponding period.
D&B Australia and New Zealand chief executive Christine Christian said the increased momentum expected for the December quarter was not forecast to continue into the new year. She said recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which showed a cooling economy, was a wake-up call to many people who expected the economic good times to continue unabated.

Syd 06:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUSTRALIA WATCH: RBA Stance May Be About To Shift
Australia's economy is heading for a soft patch, giving the Reserve Bank few reasons to retain any suggestion of a tightening bias.

Syd :-( 06:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dlr Tumbles On Commodity Prices, Rates View

HK JR 06:22 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
ah , finally a chance to buy cheaper A$ . Mid 75's will start to buy again ....IMHO of course !

Makassar Alimin 06:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i hope they dont use the idea i posted yesterday to trap poor fresh buyers like me though -_-
it could be that they will bring it down to 1.32xx area to attract new buyers and then hammer us down immediately 100 pips or so to trigger all fresh stops...arghh can't imagine if that happens but hey i have to try something

KL KL 06:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
ok i am out eurusd long at 48...+5 pips ...maybe this one like to go lower...for fun!!

Hong Kong Qindex 06:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:17 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
IMHO We need to see London boyz opinion. 2 Fast & 2Asian move yet.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for the error on my last post but it should read like this.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.

Makassar Alimin 06:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 06:02 GMT December 8, 2004

ya, i had 1.3285 here, i think i'll try 1 small long position there if seen, the big one remains 1.3250, if 1.32 is taken today which i think is unlikely (never say never though) then change strategy sell on rallies, but as long as 1.32 hold, that's still buy on dips for me

tk jf 06:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
tk im - i hope you followed the early direction this morning

LA Ty 06:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD strong resistance @ 3466

Syd 06:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
tk jf yep

LA Ty 06:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hi Makassar ! Wow is right. I just rode Euro down from 3434 to 3443. lol I made 80ish pips during dinner time LOL

Current support around 3330. Next around 3280 ?? You agree?

Makassar Alimin 06:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
holy euro! just logged in, what was the trigger of this move?
ok, determined today, will buy on dips limit entry 1.3250 if seen, stop under 1.3220, hopefully will get it filled

tk jf 05:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
syd did u cash out of aud ?

KL KL 05:57 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
whoops I meant 1.3343...so used to euro at 1.34...still in and looking good...locking in 1 pip now...FLY NOW!!..LOL

chicago joe 05:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
closed gbp reshort at 1.94 or lower.

KL KL 05:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
ok been busy busy collecting pips ...isn't it obvious ... profit taking and nervous nellies, stop hunt, short covering...everything under the sun..LOL...My last trade was short gbpusd 1.9393 out 1.9353...+40.

Long eurusd 1.3443 sl 7 below...for quick play

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW the eur/usd bears take a shot at putting a dent on the bullish armor but the retracement and support numbers hold their ground for now as the indicators unwind to possibly take one more shot at the top resistance. We shall see how deep this dent will be when the bears are through with their motion IMHO. GL GT

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3380-3400, 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3055.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3260-3270.
Resistance T/L 3500-10 and 3380-3400 Support T/L is around 3330-40 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3320-30, 3280-3300, 3210-30, 3170-80 and 3040-60 for now key support is around the 3250-80 area IMHO. GL GT

chicago joe 05:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Looks like some patience will be needed on the gbp.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

tk jf 05:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
peat dont worry stick ard for a while

LA Ty 05:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
yeah I posted a loss the other night :( 26 pips..small though. Earlier I said that EUR/USD support was @ 3385. It definitley was that mark because the big drop started at 3385. Luckily I was still short and gained 50 pips more. Thanks to info on this forum I saw a signal from the EUR/JPY chart. Whoever that was , thanks !

SA Pat 05:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd 50 ma on 4 hour charts has acted as support for the last 4 weeks, could be a nice dip to long...fwiw

gl & gt

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 05:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all! What next? Back to 1.35?
And back to 102? TIA

Auckland peat 05:28 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
as a newbie I will state what I learned from this Eur/Usd correction.
Dont Ever ride out a bad position.... take the loss and live with it. on this occasion I lots 30 pips , but better than 100 if I had held.
also, some of u post your good trades and smile, do u also post it when u screw up ;+)

Dallas GEP 05:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
My 1.3405 short limited out at 1.3350. FLAT looking for possies

Halifax CB 05:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty - Hope you got your Euro shorts filled....I had to S&R at 3378, but it still made a nice profit. Re Euro though - it did something very similar to this on the 2nd, it shows up pretty clearly on the hourlies. A steep drop, then a total lack of follow-up. So if this carries flat for 10-15 hours, a long might be in order. Of course, if it drops again, that's all off....

gold coast martin 05:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 22:42 GMT December 5, 2004
11380=11318....

gold coast martin 22:38 GMT December 5, 2004
Concentrating on swiss today and this week mainly......taking early position on USD/CHF ...1138....TARGET 11451...STOP AT 11274....Swissie may go later after wednesday as euro finds new breath for a push to 135 but for now we may see euro down to 13370 levels with swissie up to 11450....position reviewed wed..g/t

Above post still applies for this week...extended target for chf to 11528 ......

Calabash TarHeel 05:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
st. pete islander 05:05 GMT December 8, 2004
I don't doubt that I might have left some money on the table with the Aud and Euro, but still a very strong day, pips booked and as you have said, one can sleep well. See what is out there after London has had it's shot. If I have anything working, will probably be posting, if not, I'm flat.
Take Care Friend.

LA Ty 05:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
hey, just curious.. in the past months there hasnt been much volatility around 2am-5am GMT (Asian session). But lately like in the past few hours it has been very busy. Is it always this busy around this time and I have just been missing it ?

Hong Kong Qindex 05:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
44-Day Cycle Analysis

Most of the major currencies and thier crosses are available in my page. Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

st. pete islander 05:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, TarHeel .... it was a quiet one. Looks like you may have gotten out a bit early .... they seemed to have burned up some stops and maybe looking for more. 10-4 on the katnaps. Expect more excitement over coming days .... will look for you. gt.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:48 GMT December 7, 2004
EUR/USD : The neutral zone of my daily cycle is 1.3370 - 1.3473 and the key quantized level is positioning at 1.3424. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.3279 - 1.3300 and a projected resistant level is located at 1.3521 - 1.3533.


A) : ... 1.3269* // 1.3300 - 1.3331* - 1.3363 - 1.3393 - {1.3425} - 1.3456* - 1.3487 - 1.3518* // 1.3549 - 1.3580* ...


B) : ... 1.3230* // 1.3279 - 133.27* - 1.3376 - {1.3424}* - 1.3473 - 1.3521 // 1.3570 - 1.3618* ...


C) : ... 1.3243* // 1.3279 - 1.3315* - 1.3352 - 1.3388* - {1.3424} - 1.3461* - 1.3497 - 1.3533* // 1.3570 - 1.3606* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 09:02 GMT December 2, 2004
EUR/USD : Current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle reference (24/11).


... 1.2743* ... // 1.3001 - 1.3130 - (1.3259) - 1.3388 - 1.3517 // ... 1.3775 ...

chicago joe 05:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
short gbp/jpy here anyone? TIA

Calabash TarHeel 05:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hey Islander.
Good to see you too. Trust all is well with you and yours. When you get as old as I am, can't remember whether it's night or day anymore. Have gotten like my cat now, just flop and sleep whenever the mood strikes. Hope you had a very good Thanksgiving. I certainly did.

st. pete islander 04:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
TarHeel .... kind of early for a young man like you, isn't it?

LA Ty 04:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i closed as well.. 3330 ish is support. made another 50 pips ontop of 30 pips a couple hrs ago. total 80 pips in two hrs. pretty nice dinner time $$ :P

Calabash TarHeel 04:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 04:48 GMT December 8, 2004
Hello Ab, been awhile, good to see you again.

Calabash TarHeel 04:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well Guys and Gals. I'm done, just closed Euro short from this am. Sleep time.
Happy Trades

hk ab 04:48 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Can we start to have the word "cap......"?

LA Ty 04:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF resistance at 1460 or 1515

LA Ty 04:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
support at EUR 3330

orlando jcr 04:42 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
So break happened on Euro...
Where do we see asian session now...???
Is this a whole new ballgame...???
Picking up some nice pips on the downside here.

LA Ty 04:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
nice, I've made another 30 pips already. thats 60 pips since 6:30pm. Dinner time FUN :P

chicago joe 04:39 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
bye bye euro

Syd 04:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Looks like US investment funds are lightening their Euro and GBP longs today..

LA Ty 04:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
wow..this forum is COBRANDED. I was chatting to you guys through the censored website forum. my page was totally different LOL !

Calabash TarHeel 04:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
houston st 04:34 GMT December 8, 2004
Thanks St. We have had a very pleasant fall/winter so far. Think I'll let you keep the rain this time. A very nice and enjoyable holidays to you and yours.

NJ TnT 04:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 04:34 GMT

Select "Analysis & News", then select "Analysis"

Syd 04:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty sign into that .

http://www.global-view.com/beta/login.html?r=%2Fbeta%2Fforums%2Fforum_ticker.html%3Ff%3D1

LA Ty 04:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
yeah, weird , I dont have that.. Illl look into it.. mayeb my popup blocker

houston st 04:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   

TARHEEL -- good to see you around too...agree, a break lower through 50 would most likely see 25, and perhaps as low as 1.3290ish level...standing aside tonight watching the games...too many assassins in Asia...waiting for London/NY sessions...on another subject I've had to get my Ark plans out again...monsoon season this past month in Houston...can I send it your way?...good trades/holidays to you and yours....back for Europe...

Syd 04:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Forum Webstie .. its at the side you right

Syd 04:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
You should have.

anyone know why he hasnt.

LA Ty 04:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SYD> Are you talking about the censored homepage or forum web page? Because on the forum web page I dont have a sidebar.

London. 04:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
US Says Iraqi Rebels Being Aided By Syria - WP

LA Ty 04:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Going for a nice ride South I hope ;)

Calabash TarHeel 04:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
houston st 04:19 GMT December 8, 2004
Hello st
Trust all is well with you these days.
Think 1.3380 is the key, break there "might" open up 1.3320. Imho.
gt

Syd 04:25 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
TY go to the side bar under home and press on analysis you will get this...IFR Markets for real time headlines.---->>>>

LA Ty 04:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SYD> IfR ?

Syd 04:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD Treads Water, Large 1.3380, 1.3430 Expiries

Syd 04:21 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty if you look at the header for Ifr down side --->>

LA Ty 04:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SYD> where did you hear of this option?

houston st 04:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   

80/90 range is key support...lose it and you could see 50 or lower in eur$...good trades...

LA Ty 04:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
im thinking a hold at 3385... that was a support level forsure.

Syd 04:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Talk of big option 1.3380

Atlanta-South 04:16 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
will 3385 HOLD? Any thoughts?

LA Ty 04:15 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
was there just an announcement i missed or something?

LA Ty 04:14 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD just hit support of 3385

LA Ty 04:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
woah.. look at GBP go.

LA Ty 04:13 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i entered EUR/USD @ 3390...

LA Ty 04:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
makes me wish I had stayed short on EUR/USD instaed of closing the trade early. oh, well 30 pips is better than nothing.

LA Ty 04:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
That was a huge test of suuport for the EUR/JPY just now. 137.96. Lets see if it breaks.

Calabash TarHeel 04:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
syd 04:06 GMT December 8, 2004
My concern now is if my Euro short can take out 1.3380 before London opens. If not, squeaky tight trailing stop.

syd 04:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel har call but looking at the hourly and may bounce

Calabash TarHeel 04:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd 03:59 GMT December 8, 2004
No argument here. Closed short from this am at .7670. See if we get a good bounce to sell it again. Too early to call now.
gl,gt

Syd 03:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel where from here its abit oversold at the moment

Calabash TarHeel 03:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Calabash TarHeel 18:18 GMT November 30, 2004
Aud/Usd: When .7710 gives way, think .7660 will come pretty quickly. Imho.
gl,gt

Yo Martin!

Took a little while!
gl,gt

LA Ty 03:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
indeed, ther is major pressure building for some move.

LA Ty 03:53 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
strange, GBP has bull pressure and EURO/USD has bear pressure

Halifax CB 03:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - just close USDJPY shorts at a few pips loss; I think the pressure is building on EUR/JPY to pop up, and I don't want to be in the way....

Hong Kong Qindex 03:49 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:48 GMT December 7, 2004
AUD/USD : The neutral zone of my daily cycle is located at 0.7718 - 0.7783 and the key quantized level is positioning at 0.7750. A projected suppprting level is expected at 0.7594 - 0.7601 and a projected resistant level is located at 0.7848 - 0.7855.


A) : ... 0..7587* // 0.7620 - 0.7653* - 0.7686 - 0.7718 - {0.7750} - 0.7783* - 0.7816 // 0.7848* ...


B) : ... 0.7542* // 0.7594 - 0.7646* - 0.7698 - {0.7750}* - 0.7803 // 0.7855* ...


C) : ... 0.7601* // 0.7639 - 0.7676* - 0.7713 - {0.7750}* - 0.7788 - 0.7825* - // 0.7862 - 0.7899* ...


Hong Kong Qindex 03:04 GMT December 2, 2004
AUD/USD : Current expected trading tradig ranges from my 44-day cycle reference (24/11).


... // 0.7499* - 0.7562 - 0.7625 - 0.7688 - {0.7751} - 0.7814 - 0.7877 - 0.7940 - 0.8002* // ...

Calabash TarHeel 03:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
AUD likely to resume uptrend vs soft USD. Deutsche's 3-month AUD/USD target 0.7900, 6-month 0.8100;

That's a censored of a call, already broken .7900. He gets paid for this?

Halifax CB 03:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty - cool; I've never been to Vancouver, but I do love LA...

LA Ty 03:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
lots of bear pressure on EUR, GBP + EUR/JPY.

Brisbane 03:41 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australia November jobs report due tomorrow at 0030 GMT, today's AUD weakness due to technical factors positioning ' AUD likely to resume uptrend vs soft USD. Deutsche's 3-month AUD/USD target 0.7900, 6-month 0.8100;

chicago joe 03:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
bye bye aud, see you at 0.75

LA Ty 03:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
maybe a crushing break through EUR support

LA Ty 03:40 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
on Euro

LA Ty 03:39 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I am still thinking sell.

Halifax CB 03:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SG Kan - I'm staying away from it. There do seem to be lots of buy signals on it, but right now, I don't trust it very much....

LA Ty 03:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
but still too soon yet for confirmation.

LA Ty 03:35 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
MACD looks good for EUR long.

LA Ty 03:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I'm from Vancouver btw.

LA Ty 03:31 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Canuck (Halifax).... Only immediate market orders for me during December. Yeah maybe I'll go long in a few minutes.

SG Kan 03:29 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB
what's your view on USD/CAD? TIA

Halifax CB 03:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA TY - if you are leaving a sell order in for that, you might want to lower it a little - The support for the Euro from about a week ago seems to be around 1.3388. GL....(FWIW, I'm long on the euro, with the s/l right now at 1.3380...)

SAIHAT What_he_found_when_he_lost _you 03:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
one indicator said to me....WILL HIT

EUR 1.3460

AUD .7800

CHF 1.1349

GBP 1.9480

JPY 102.51

CAD 1.2033

time will tell...some may hit some not

honolulu Byron 03:09 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Buy AUDUSD @ 0.7690, stop loss @ 0.7676, target for 0.7750 or above!
Here is my chart reason:http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopicp-206.html
Your view is appeciated!

LA Ty 03:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
wow, that EUR/JPY has climbed a lot. Now I'm REALLY glad I closed at 3395 on the EUR.

new jersey z 03:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
seems like cable has great support at 9410

LA Ty 02:52 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
It looks as though this is the point where the EUR will complete its retracement and fall past 3395 or bounce back up to 3435. If it breaks 3390 I'm in again.

Dallas GEP 02:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
1.3405 short on EURO now

LA Ty 02:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
30 pips was a nice bonus for 6pm dinner time :)

LA Ty 02:43 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
glad I closed that trade :)

LA Ty 02:39 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dalls, I agree on those #s

Halifax CB 02:39 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Nice triangle formation with some very pretty oscillations on the hourlies in USDJPY. Being near the resistance, we've taken a short, with a best case completion in around 8 hours around 102.6 with a small s/l GL/GT

LA Ty 02:39 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I hate it when you sleep through a run. I did that last night by mistake LOL GGrrrrrr. Now I have a SMS alert sent to my cell phone LOL

Dallas GEP 02:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Well these are key levels: euro 1.3390, gbp/usd 1.9410 and eur/jpy 137.90. One breaks they probably all break

Syd 02:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
aussie needs to retrieve 77 otherwise short term bearish mode view of Westpac's FX strategist Robert Rennie

LA Ty 02:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, thanks for input.

Dallas GEP 02:32 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
TY That sometimes is session dependent, Right now Eur/JPY shorts ARE what is primarily taking eur/usd down

LA Ty 02:30 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I closed my trade. If GBP breaks 9400 I'm back in.

tk jf 02:27 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
ty - normally $yen drives euryen however today i feel eurusd will the ranges seem to be clear 137.40-137.90-138.40
so we can move quite easily between these levels i think - just depends each currency movement at the time

Brisbane L 02:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Talk of large 7675 option expiry underpinning Aussie

LA Ty 02:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
not really it seems... looking at their history

LA Ty 02:23 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
do the EUR/JPY & EUR/USD usually correlate?

tk jf 02:12 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
one thing on eur depending long or short is euryen 137.90 if that level breks then we can see 137.42 so above or below 137.90 is importnt for the posn you hold fwiw -gt-

LA Ty 02:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Balzano, youre right.. technically only 50 pips from entry... I'll hang in there till 3380 ish anyway.

Syd 02:08 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Expiring today NY

AUD 0.7790(lge).
AUD 0.7675(lge).
CAD 1.1900
EUR1.3300,30,80
JPY 103.40(lge).
JPY 103.30(lge).
PY 103.00(lge).
JPY*102.85(lge).
JPY 102.80(lge).
JPY 102.00(lge).

Balzano PA 02:07 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
At 1.3400 I thought you were already up 30 pips? so it's a 50 pips stop, take partial profits and wait for a break of 1.3365. Anyway your money, your choice.

LA Ty 02:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
well I think the gernal consensus is anywhere between 3370-3380 is a good area.

Quebec Swap 02:05 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD from here.

LA Ty 02:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
i dont agree with 3365...

Balzano PA 02:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:56 GMT ... if your scared of an 80 pip stop, cut your exposure and use the 80 pip to square off at cost if 1.3480 is hit?

LA Ty 02:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
I'm also actually experimenting. I'm using bars instead of candles for a few days. Candles have a tendancy to visually psych you out. Same info different visual.

Balzano PA 02:00 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:54 GMT .... no 1.3365 and after watch and see if 1.3310 holds. trail your stop as it drifts downwards.

LA Ty 01:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
besides, does one qualify as an expert because he consistently makes 30-80 pip profit taking? There are lots of bad experts out there ;)

LA Ty 01:58 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
nyc, lol... its been proven that the difference between a novice and expert trader is a longer track record of luck. lol

LA Ty 01:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
stop loss of 80? thas a bit larger than I'm used to. I'm more of a scalper cause of smaller equity at first.

ICT ML 01:56 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 00:34 GMT December 8, 2004
"eur/gbp can be the card to play for ECB , if they disaided to takenin on some type of intervention ."

I had that thought as a scenario myself. But it needs to go much farther south to make it a reality.

nyc grumpy 01:55 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
geez la ty, and we all thought you were the expert from the other day.

LA Ty 01:54 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
dont you mean 1.3385 ?

Balzano PA 01:51 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:44 GMT .... wait and see if 1.3365 can be broken ...s/l 1.3480

LA Ty 01:45 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
looks like it will go lower, but who knows for sure..no one.

LA Ty 01:44 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
just made 30 pips on EUR to 1.3400... wondering if I should close the trade or hold on

ny amc 01:36 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
GOLD COAST......Where do you see aud/usd in 3 ,6 and 12 months. Thanks

chicago joe 01:33 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
sell gbp/usd 1.9415

Gen dk 01:26 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

gold coast martin 01:20 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 01:56 GMT December 6, 2004
...With a plethora of australian data been released this week ,we could see the aussie trading on its own steam,rather than strictly in correlation with the euro.....indicators for the aussie this week suggest the resistance level of 7688 to be challenged with further downward bias developing to 7620 if 7688 breached,,,,the odds this week are much higher of the aussie challenging 7688 than the 7956 level.....

Above post still applies....g/t

prague jv 01:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy pivot level 102.50 for direction . see you all later london .

Syd 01:06 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
http://biz.yahoo.com/censored/041207/1102432685_88108_1.html

change ( censored ) as above

Syd 01:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Hope this worksWeekly Analysis of the Majors: Trade or Fade?

prague jv 01:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
SYD , I do not have targets , so none . am going where markert going 24/7

prague jv 01:01 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
aud goes , gbp follows , eur joins jpy enjoys .

Syd 00:59 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
prague jv whats your target on Aud downside ? thanks

prague jv 00:50 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
aud is near acceleretion downside level

Sydney 00:47 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Mizuho Securities is saying that the Japan economy in near-recession phase - GDP shrank by real 0.1% in 2Q, grew 0.1% in 3Q ,income growth to restrict consumption also strong yen, weaker global growth will hurt exports. There is a great concern that firms will fail to increasing investment when rest of economy is weakening , with this in mind cant see the BOJ letting the Yen fall below 100 without some serious thought

Syd 00:38 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Australian Oct Housing Finance -0.2% Vs -1.0% Consensus

prague jv 00:34 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp can be the card to play for ECB , if they disaided to takenin on some type of intervention .

Stockholm AGuy 00:24 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:19 GMT:

Not a very convincing argument. CBs know that if they mention specific levels, that's seen as an all clear until those levels are touched, i.e. an open invitation to go ahead and challenge them. So when they have their wits about them, they always try be nebulous about levels.

Syd 00:19 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
BNP put out a report this morning saying they think because the ECB wont mention levels of intervention they are setting up a trap.. Bloomberg live.

SAIHAT What_he_found_when_he_lost _you 00:18 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
eur

1.3403 1.3451


could be for 6 hours

Dallas GEP 00:11 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
JV, more than that but rather not say.

Eur/gbp seesaws back and forth probably more than any other pair. Generally goes long or short with EUR/USD unless their is a significant difference between the rate of decline or ascent of the GBP vs. the Euro. So if Both euro and gbp short then GBP will probably short harder which in turn longs eur/gbp EVEN if eur/usd is shorting at the time. Some people have GBP/EUR as a pair instead of Eur/GBP

Stockholm AGuy 00:10 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius georgas 00:04 GMT: "aren't you going for a sleep?"

Sooner or later. I must be careful not to get too much sleep though, lest I risk loosing my trademark Sleepy & Grumpy posting style...

Vilnius georgas 00:04 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy
aren't you going for a sleep? I just looked around everywere darkness, and quiet street seems to be soo empty . good night AGuy , goodnight
;}

Syd 00:03 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
JPN ECON: Nov Total Bank Loans -2.9% y/y
JPN ECON: Nov Money Supply M2+CDs +2.1% y/y
JPN ECON: Q3 GDP Unrevised, +0.1% Q/Q, +0.2% Annualized

Tokyo IM 00:02 GMT December 8, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 23:56 GMT December 7, 2004// Yen has the only way and it is to the long way to the skyes.