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Forex Forum Archive for 12/09/2004

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Sydney 23:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
hk ab I agree, he rides on his past glory

Halifax CB 23:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Re. Japan and Europe - take a look at this graph, from the Economist Uh-oh, look who's in trouble, Japan....

hk ab 23:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 22:17 GMT December 9, 2004
Dollar will fall more, expert says
December 10, 2004 ?ѠTOKYO ?? The dollar's fall is not over yet, according to former Finance Ministry official and Keio University professor Eisuke Sakakibara.


The same GUY, said in year 2002 beginning, dlr/jpy will hit the fan at 140-160 which is never reached.......

Ltn th 23:32 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
fxq// GL & GT. I dont trust data some times for a variety of reasons but I dont deny its ability and usefullness in moving s/t market.
nh// Interesting points you raise. Timing is key as is politics and positioning over GB and EMU. If GB does not commit very soon they may never get a better deal. They may end up with parity between pound and euro rather than between the ten bob and the euro.

prague jv 23:26 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Trade imbalance worries Costello

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Trade-imbalance-worries-Costellos/2004/12/09/1102182424865.html?oneclick=true

dc fxq 23:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 22:48 GMT

I go on actual reported data, not opinion of economists or FinMin, etc talking heads. That's the best I can do.

Good luck for your fiuture trades!

Livingston nh 23:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th - EUR is going up as a diversification by USD heavy asian countries not based on trade flows internal or external in the EU -- this movement may not be as bad as the hot money flows that wreaked havoc in 1997 but the EU could get whipsawed -- capital is leaving the core of the EU and being invested in some of the new members -- budget deficits in some of the larger EU members will probably hit 4% next year, trade levels are falling (in January textile agreements run out and even at $40 oil, energy imports are raising imports), Britain's current account deficit is over 5% and the overall debt levels rel. to GDP of France, Italy and Germany are equal or greater than the US

I think your optimism about the condition of the EU is misplaced

Halifax CB 22:59 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Atlanta-South. Doing this really helps me clarify my own thoughts; it's like playing an instrument (that one isn't very good at :) in public....

Atlanta-South 22:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB:Very interesting. Can't imagine anyone would mind this post. Keep up the GOOD POST. VERY HELPFUL & INFORMATIVE.

Ltn th 22:48 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
fxq// Fair enough. For l/t and riskier players players this can be usefull. Your strategy is undoubtedly better than the likes of NAB.
I am influenced by recent comments by Montier of DKW in lindon on equity valuations and momentum. Summary on Mauldins site at :-
www.investorsinsight.com

Halifax CB 22:48 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I was going to post this earlier, but as I was getting ready my network connection failed (thanks Aliant Nova Scotia)...

---old stuff----
Interesting numbers (non-techs please ignore, I'm workiing through some theory here...) from the EURUSD pennant mentionned earlier. I took the successive major lows on the 5 minute chart, at 13:45 yesterday,5:30 today, and 12:35 today. When the shanks formula is applies it gave the next low at 15:46. Not bad considering it happend at 1600 (all GMT). Using the current numbers gave the next low at 17:40 (real time at 17:30) - the break one way or the other should happen by 19:20. If it happens at all :) (PS Picking the lows once it gets weak like this is very subjective. I need to renormalize, but am not set up to do this yet. So it's all very handwavey...)

---new stuff---
On top of that, the demo prog I use to do my charts (MQ - really beautiful charts & connections) screwed up, so I had to use a live account (the no fail s/l guys, terrible charting service, buggy software) to update the chart. anyway, it's here; the times are eastern (grrrrrr). Obviously the break didn't occur (it would have gone out around the time the last uptrend ends.) But the top of the pennant held and there's a new downtrend (though not in very active markets). The Shanks formula can't be applied here because the wavelengths are increasing, but I am in a short EURUSD position from when I could get back online not that long ago. Not optimal, but the s/l is small. The breakout point is on the lower resistance line; it's intriguing how long it took to get back above the first resistance once it was broken earlier..
GL/GT, and I hope no one minds me taking up space like this. I just find it mathmatically interesting....

Atlanta-South 22:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell me what they adv on trading USD/JPY over the next 2-4 months? Who follows this pair & can adv the best way to trade in the future? Thanks in advance for any RESPONSE. Just trying to learn.

dc fxq 22:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
"EMU according to some important indicators is and will do a lot better than many think."

Not to be contenious but I wonder which indicators those are?
ZEW, DIW, domestic spending all are grim and exports are beginning to suffer.

it is frankly a moot point to since I do not take positions overnight and frankly see a 60 minute hold as long term. As you can see from a prior post I play both sides of EURUSD several times a dayn

Ltn th 22:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Sydney. I think I just agreed with you in justifying the wisdom of the CB's

vancouver 22:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
sdsdfgr

Ltn th 22:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps I put too much emphasis on equities and the prospects of genuine productivity and yields.

Sydney 22:31 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th the biggest problem is that the moves of late in the Euro have been CB shifting reserves to more Euro Base , and not so much speculative moves,

Ltn th 22:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
fxq// Yes and No in that order. I think Jpy exonomy is not performing as it should for a number of possible reasons, But I am not qualified to spout. EMU according to some important indicators is and will do a lot better than many think.

dc fxq 22:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
December 9, 2004
Sydney// It seems that the USDJPY is the key to current market instability and risks to global economies. Until we see those sorts of numbers there seems little chance of genuine US economic recovery.

You mean like the surging EMU and JPN economies?

dc fxq 22:24 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Don't you get just a little nervous when all the "experts" and analysts are in agreement that xyz is inevitable?

I distinctly remember the late Pierre Rinfret, choef economist at Rinfret-Boston Associates telling all my clients in TO and Montreal "there wasn't gonna be a recession". That was in 1970.

Guess what? Then came '72 and '73!

Ltn th 22:23 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Sydney// It seems that the USDJPY is the key to current market instability and risks to global economies. Until we see those sorts of numbers there seems little chance of genuine US economic recovery. The euro,despite its various states posturing, seems destined for much greater gains than any of us envisage. We all await a more holistic set of policies and maths from the MOF before serious economic recovery globally.

Sydney 22:17 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dollar will fall more, expert says
December 10, 2004 ?ѠTOKYO ?? The dollar's fall is not over yet, according to former Finance Ministry official and Keio University professor Eisuke Sakakibara.
In an interview with the JoongAng Ilbo, Mr. Sakakibara said on Wednesday that the Japanese yen will continue to rise until March or April of next year until it reaches 90 to 95 yen to the dollar. He added that the value of the yen will accelerate once the dollar hits the 100-yen mark.

Brisbane 22:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow suggested in an interview on Dec. 3 he wouldn't attempt to counter the dollar's slide. ``Markets can overshoot and undershoot, and they often do, but the virtue of markets is they're self correcting,'' he said. The White House yesterday said Snow will remain in his post as President George W. Bush begins his second term next month.
``He's been reappointed, so that tells us there's no confusion over the dollar policy'' in Bush's administration, said David Bloom, a currency strategist in London at HSBC Holdings Plc. ``Everyone is quite sure about the trend -- the dollar is going down and come the new year everybody will be fresh and ready to sell dollars.''

Bloom expects the U.S. currency to fall to $1.40 per euro and 98 yen by the end of next

bloomberg

dc fxq 22:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 21:34

Yes, long EURUSD @ 1140 ish at 13273 and out 14:10 ish at 13323

SYD Alex 21:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
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Good Luck,
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River Falls_USA_ PB 21:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
fxq I think we are talking about the same thing...so I assume you shorted the artificial $ smack as well. gt

Atlanta-South 21:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
The book "The Money Game" that was mention earlier is still avail if anyone is interested. GOOD reading for US TRADERS. Give it a look. Just thought someone might be interested. GOOD DAY TO ALL.

dc fxq 21:11 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 21:05 GMT

correction to this post the indirect's comprised 65.8% of the 5 yr issue, not 45+.

Ldn 21:07 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
MOSCOW — Russia’s Central Bank chief said yesterday that the volume of US dollars in Russia’s gold and foreign currency reserves may be reduced, a day after the dollar sank to a new all-time low against the euro.
‘‘We are thinking about possibly changing the structure of the gold and hard-currency...
US press



dc fxq 21:06 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
From Bloomberg:

"Lower demand from such investors was anticipated, said debt strategists including Alex Li at Credit Suisse First Boston. Those investors tend to be more active at quarterly refundings, when they typically have securities maturing, said Li, whose firm is one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that are obligated to bid at auctions."

dc fxq 21:05 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I read it as indirects were going for liquiduty and therefore shorter maturity 2's and specifically 5's where indirects were in the 45+ area.

The bid to cover was excellent and so was the yield. Just another example of taking one piece of an event or report have focusing on that solitary aspect rather than the overall result.

River Falls_USA_ PB 20:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 20:38 GMT December 9, 2004 /// the treasury auction today shocked dealers to see that indirect bidders accounted for only 10% of today"s 10-year auction versus 65% of the 5-year auction yesterday afternoon. Lack of interest in US debt...i.e. bonds down, yields up, but dollar gets whacked. fwiw I already shorted the EUR/USD expecting the spike to subside. gt/gl

dc fxq 20:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 20:38 GMT

that kind of babble is just pure wire service nonsense. it's largely a bunch of b s sputed by a so called expert to some reporter who has to file a story.

how do I know this? I used to be a "key contact" on the 10 yr Tnote for one wire service guy. three calls a day and I always had some "wisdom" to impart (yeah right) no matter what was going on.

Dallas GEP 20:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Well GD missed the action the last couple of hours

Van jv 20:38 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 19:52
''''the rise in US yields is actually hurting the greenback """""
am not sure about that, would rather expect pos. correlation about 0.7///

dc fxq 20:31 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
no problem at all GD!

Wien GD 20:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ... and thx for the explanation!

River Falls_USA_ PB 20:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
just a note to us small-timers to widen our stops and lighten the load towards year end..."This afternoon"s messy price action, following on the heels of disorderly markets yesterday saw some of the big interbank liquidity providers widen spreads and in some cases offer only indicative prices. Look for liquidity issues to intensify as year-end approaches" gt/gl

Makassar Alimin 19:58 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
River Falls_USA_ PB 19:52 GMT December 9, 2004

Thanks a lot mate, very interesting info indeed. Now all I am waiting is next week's deficit data.

Rockford BDR 19:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
OK sz
On your KISS trading plan. Are you just buying on the dips with the EMA's or is that some kind of swing trading? Newbie here and not use to watching 4hr charts.
Thanks

Vienna GD 19:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ... will change my location to the english one
Now vienna - not Wien!

River Falls_USA_ PB 19:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:18 GMT December 9, 2004 ///hope this helps:
"After yesterday"s heavy official demand at the US 5-year note auction, traders assumed more of the same at today"s 10-year auction. It didn"t work out that way and the rise in US yields is actually hurting the greenback as demand for its assets declines."

Ldn 19:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 18:34 good call, is that perth Rick?

SanFrancisco TG 19:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
My 14:21 turned out accurate. Some pips available to the downside for Euro but cross current ends up with NY closing above the open. Euro upside is better for the coming sessions if there is no solid impetus for continued selling.

If nothing else, the strong amount of selling in prior sessions and a failure to continue the downside significantly says something usually I have found.

Toronto 19:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
BoC's Dodge says forex on January meeting agenda

TORONTO, Dec 9 (Reuters) - The issue of foreign exchange rates will be on the agenda of a Bank of International Settlements meeting for central bankers to be held in Switzerland on Jan. 10, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Thursday.

Dodge made the remarks at a news conference in Toronto.

dc fxq 19:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Wein GD

Back in my much younger days (the mid 1960's though early 1970's) when performance mutual funds were in their infancy, Adam Smith wrote a series of articles for the old NY Hearald Tribune which later became the book "The Money Game".

The term "guinslingers" evolved during that time period to reference the salaried and bonused trading portfolio managers who were simply running money (other peoples not their own) for fun and profit. The "establishment looked upon them as nothing more than "hired hands" or mercinaries, paid gunslingers if you will.

Makassar Alimin 19:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 19:10 GMT December 9, 2004

thanks GV, so what was expected out of the indirect bid? sorry, i am not too familiar with this event, anyone care to share some knowledge?TIA

Wien GD 19:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ... agree on the fight ... had something to do with treasuries and usdjpy imho ... but could you please further explain that ... "gunslingers"?!

Wien GD 19:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
hi GEP ... wasn't that a wonderful trip now ... woah!!!
What do you expect next from eurusd and ,,,, guess audusd?

Global-View 19:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL- check your email

Makassar Alimin 19:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
i have got upper bolinger band on daily exactly at 1.3533 now, that has been the target mentioned so often previously, maybe this is a sign that we will get there soon? 1.3250 has held again and we are now over 1.3285, looks like above 1.3270 closing price is on the menu barring any more surprises

Global-View 19:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, see Global-View 18:53 GMT December 9, 2004

dc fxq 19:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Wathcing and playing the action today it seems to me it is a clear cut case of the gunslingers (leveraged accounts) playing games.

Since it is a gunfight between the gunslingers one should always bear in mind the adage :

"Don't bring a knife to a gunfight".

Jkt Rick 19:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:04 GMT December 9, 2004


its on the way to 1.35 buy it now for the 200 points.

Makassar Alimin 19:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LOL, what was this sudden jump in euro and pound all about? i was out just for half an hour or so...any updates guys?

Eilat Dolphin 19:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GVI !

Global-View 18:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI john 18:13 GMT December 9, 2004
Ten-year went out at 4.150%. The bid-to-cover was a strong 2.68. Indirect bids were a meager 10%. No surprise.

GVI john 16:32 GMT December 9, 2004
There could be a short-lived dollar sell off when the results are announced

GVI john 16:30 GMT December 9, 2004
Treasury will sell $9lbn in 10-year notes at 18:00 GMT today. The current yield on the 10-year is 4.118%, vs., 4.13% on the close on Wednesday. Foreign central bank participation (indirect bids) will be wached closely as a measure of their interest in holding USD assets. In general, central banks have tended to avoid maturities of this length and beyond. We see no reason for that strategy to change today.

KL KL 18:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd seems to have come too far and fast too soon ....like asking me to knock it down now...looking and waiting....anytime I have to test this up trend...

perrie como 18:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
strong hands behind those flows It seems

r'n'roll or just the classic music

OK SZ 18:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KISS follow a 4h chart with 3,7, 21 ema and fibs..make money

OK SZ 18:40 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out gbp/usd from 19160 at 19225 have a good day all

Jkt Rick 18:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
The best short term opportunity now is to buy AUD/USD at market 0.7540.

NYC 18:31 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
US Treasuries fall further as auction disappoints

chicago joe 18:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Well maybe it has more to fall since it cannot stay above the 50 period sma on the daily.

lon jr 17:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
well usual crowd in f/east (buyers over last months) ..reputedly been on offer for euro today..stops on cable 19150 and below also think stops same llevel on euro

Wien GD 17:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 16:30 ... what does that mean for the buck? (selling 9lbn 10-y notes)... support ahead of 1 est?

sg kan 17:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
I just got into the US session and wondering if this is a good level to short euro. Kindly advise. TIA

Rivonia PipPirate 17:38 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
chicago joe 17:05 I agree, AUD does not have a big week like this every day.lol
In fact, a cursory glance back 10 yrs shows this week is in the top 5.

Makassar Alimin 17:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
lon jr 17:26 GMT December 9, 2004

yes, nervous time now for those defending 1.3250, 13 EMA on daily also happens to be around 1.3270, plus daily rsi pointing down, macd crosses over for first time after many weeks, but i suspect the stochs will play the trick here should we close above 1.3270 for tomorrow's action

should we close under 1.3250 however, all my hopes will be put for 20 EMA and that mighty 1.32/1.3180 area so far and any break back above 1.3285 will be very bullish targetting recent high

lon jr 17:26 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
hold on to ur hat alimin..cable stops below 50 might just help euro on its way

Makassar Alimin 17:24 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
i think it is running out of time, euro might test 1.3250 again and go up from there to close above 1.3270, friday as usual is rather suspicious for dollar selling, so i expect that scenario will continue, one thing that fellow traders may notice is that we have seen euro refused to close below 1.3270 for the last few trading days ever since we broke it from levels below and it was always followed by higher euro, so pay attention to today's closing price and compare it with last thursday for example

Makassar Alimin 17:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
euro looks rather heavy to me, if it doesn't go up past 1.3285 soon, i expect 1.3250 to be breached, but at this time of the day maybe it won't do that

Dallas GEP 17:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
You would think that Joe, but daily charts on MACD are still very bearish on AUSSIE

chicago joe 17:05 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Aussie lost 6 percent of its value in 2 weeks, imo it's oversold for now.

Paris MAXX 16:49 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP...True but sometimes what IS happening is very short term..

Dallas GEP 16:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
This AUSSIE, is a PERFECT example of how technicals followed blindly can cost you MONEY. I have a very good friend who is a SUPERB technical trader and AUSSIE has killed him today longing against technicals. He REFUSES to beleive that it WOn'T SHORT because the technicals told him it would SHORT. Don't trade on what SHOULD happen, trade on what IS happening.

Dallas GEP 16:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Euro is heavy. I agree with the view we MAY test that 1.3180 from the other day. It is pressing it's lows . GBP I think we be LESS bearish It has already moved alot already today. that 1.9140/50 MAY contain for USsession

Paris MAXX 16:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... good call on Aussie...any feelings on Euro or Crude?

Dallas GEP 16:11 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Paul I am flat on Aussie, I WAS short from 7541 and I closed at +15. Aussie has been moving uncharacteristically fast

Dallas GEP 16:09 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
YEP GD and BTW..I am NOT short on Aussie because something untechnical is keeping it long. I don't get it EXPLAIN LUCY!!!! Lol

london paul 16:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
once Eur/A$ breaks the hrly uptrend line will fall at 1.7580 then its downhil ride to 1.7460 (if,if,if)

lgillingham Dwarf 16:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
wen yen test 05 lvl..prob have another headache like the one, i had this morning, from last nite..too many pole dancers..haha

london paul 16:06 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dallas there is a small uptrend on 15 mins from the failed attempt at 1.7600 which pushed it back to test 1.7700.

It should continue to fall, but with commodities weak perhaps A$ is clearly weaker than Eur$.

I too am short at 1.7650 and 'talking my book'- like you!

Wien GD 16:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 1.3175

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
technically there is NOT a good reason for AUSSIE to be above 1.75 at this time SHOULD be below 1.75 and heading for at least 1.7460.

Wien GD 16:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
hi GEP ... looks like usdjpy will push thru 105 and eurusd below 1.3250 and we will visit your 1.3275?!

hertford jr 16:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
1.9140 looks good lvl in cable

dc fxq 15:58 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
london jr 15:56 GMT

if triggered could we be looking at EURUSD sub 1.3200 again?

london jr 15:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
rumours of stops in yen @ 105.05

Halifax CB 15:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Made a little money on the pennant formation (see 14:15) and am now out; have moved the support line down acordingly & will wait to get in again....I probably got out too soon, but I have to head out for awhile, & this one will need a little TLC until fully underway (if ever...). BTW, USDCAD seems to establishing a nice uptrend, good for buying on dips (once this morning, & now closed..). Tight stops though, there's still plenty of room to fall...GL/GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:38 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
NZ Long at 48

dc fxq 15:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
interesting that USDJPY is knocking in the door of yesterday's high at 105.00 while EURUSD is still hanging around 1.3275-1.3280.

Could be interesting if USDJPY takes out 105

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:36 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Toronto...Your order is active for euro 67

Atl TJ 15:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 15:22 GMT December 9, 2004

Is a classic example of bad Karma. Euro peedled off 30 pips as I posted that. Crap. Missed it!

knoxville dan-k 15:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
well if they feel that way about it then men, we should get them all pregnent--lol they deserve it there women!! its what they do best -- rofl

Atlanta-South 15:23 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Global-View: is a password needed to view the news & analysis or any of the sections to the right? When I try to enter I can read the title of the article, but the body of the info want open. I'm sure its something I'm causing. Any adv. Thanks.

Atl TJ 15:22 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
While the markets are regrouping here are a couple of scary study results. Study done in UK on respones from women. Single Men pay attention!

1) Four out of ten (42%) would also lie about contraception in order to get pregnant, in spite of the wishes of their partner.
2) An alarming 31% of all women say they would not tell a future partner if they had a sexual disease. This rises for 65% for single women.
3) Nearly half (46%) fake orgasms and more than half (55%) make excuses such as tiredness to "get out of lovemaking".

Ldn pm 15:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ok noted.....thanks

KL rip vanwinkle 15:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   

back from a nap....oops.....no forex market around....see you in 2104...

Global-View 15:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ldn pm, we are already on top of this and have contacted him.

dc fxq 15:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
so long as he didn't lose his pipi as they say in Provence

Ldn pm 15:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Are you serious KL ?? Or are you just fooling with the forum...I don't think anyone has any interest whatsoever in where you have been whilst losing your 6 pips .....or maybe I'm wrong !!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Yes I am.

Philadelphia Caba 15:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:39 GMT December 9, 2004
any short Cad?

Bahrain, r'u in this short?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:59 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
After Greenie----> Int rates Increase---> $ Up ----> Less exports ---- Less Jobs ----- less growth....>
Greenies talks again....
Very normal too!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:55 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
US $ Weakens ----> Higher export and Less Imports ----> Higher Growth in Income ---- > Higher imployment---- > Inflation----> Geenie starts takling...
What's wrong with that?...this normal!!!

SanFrancisco TG 14:45 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
IW - True, but that doesnt mean the USD is going to gain on economic superiority. Its been weakening on the back of a strong economy for a while now. I'm talking about sessions not months also :)

Halifax CB 14:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Rockford - just very short term (though certainly longer than KL !). As for all the studies, I'm just a messy houskeeper. I like to pick one or two, but the others tend to hang around till I bother to remove them....

Dallas GEP 14:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed Aussie shorts @ +15

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
any short Cad?

Rockford BDR 14:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB
I know Im a newbie at this. But I've never seen so many studies going on a chart at once. What kind of trading do you do? Swing, Intraday? Confused minds want to know! lol

Halifax CB 14:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi nyc jk - Yes - It did come in; sorry about that (I'm really bad about checking e-mail) Sounds great, I'll gt in touch. GL...

Helsinki iw 14:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
What impetus do you need tg? There´s an army of socialists running Europe -it´s doomed. Buy dollars, wear diamonds.

nyc jk 14:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB - hey there, I sent you an email yesterday, just wanted to make sure you got it as have had a couple problems in the past with your ISP?

SanFrancisco TG 14:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Not expecting much more USD strength entering this session. Needs further impetus to gain from here significantly. These conditions have led me in the past to get caught in cross currents without much conviction. Sure, tradeable and pips are there but r/r questionable. Upside for Euro in coming sessions looks better.

Quebec Swap 14:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Looks like another range trading day(Consolidation). Well after a sudden jolt as we saw yesterday what are we to expect.

No market news until tomorrow.

Halifax CB 14:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Nice pennant formation on EURUSD shaping up. Looking to play this one as $ +ve, so will look for entry points once it solidly breaks below the bottom support, or starts showing toppish behavior near the resistance line. GL/GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (FX5M120909-Forum) 14:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
short cad...Just like the demo...lets see how well this thing does.

Jkt Rick 14:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 10:43 GMT December 7, 2004
Euro is ripe for a 200 points correction guaranteed.

euro dies an hour after the legendary post.

hk ab 14:09 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
nk,
may be I should wait at 1.2650 or 1.2930 to go long euro.
Cheers.

Philadelphia Caba 13:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone!
Out of eurjpy short & went long @ 139.00, sl 138.45.
GL,GT.

Dallas GEP 13:46 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
7541 short on Aussie

KL KL 13:38 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Nothing much so out at 1.9208 +14

Pecs Andras 13:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Initial claims rose to 357K

perrie como 13:31 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
data will be mixed as usual,,market players (except those euro smaller central bankers very stressed It seems) made already their games and will not change minds so ofteen as technical analysis might suggest

g/l now off my doggie

KL KL 13:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
US Data out in few minutes, take your position. I just shorted gbpusd 1.9222

prague jv 13:26 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
price action on intraday and crosses sudgesting usd positive movment upon news in couple min.

Helsinki iw 13:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Sammy, the equatorial sun has fried your brain. Get lost.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:23 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
gold might OK to buy 422 area

Paris MAXX 13:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Thanks viis...if we drop below 42 I may turn around...getting this wrong more often than not!

Paris MAXX 13:17 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Thank you martin...in other words it can go anywhere! I was long and wrong a couple of days ago and closed out a dollar lower than here....difficult market to trade,,,,

Tallinn viies 13:16 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Paris MAXX 13:04 GMT - went long at 41,50 .
hope to see at least 43,50 fwiw

Tallinn viies 13:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
sold half of my long euryen.
if this momentum holds up we may see over 140 today

perrie como 13:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
european politicians at the end do like very high euro, as It is offered as an excuse for cutting welfare and explaining the missing jobs from factories dispalcements globally...

very detroit 90s scenario, but there in US at that time where technologies coverig jobs...

gold coast martin 13:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   


Paris MAXX 13:04 GMT December 9, 2004
OPEC meeting today in Cairo is vital to your position....as some oil ministers favour a cut in the access production, they effectively want to put a floor under the price in view of recent drop in price...if this is correct oil may spike by $2.50...one thing to maintaining a short oil position is that Saudi Arabia which is the worlds largest oil producer, does not support a cut in production and has stated that a buffer should be established...as the saudis have a lot of leverage at OPEC, the statement may support their view and thereby oil dropping further....g/t

prague jv 13:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
it looks to me , it is jpy what makeing some movment , while the rest is only adjusting to jpy movment. eur/usd did not find where it wants to go and might last longer that way .

Paris MAXX 13:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Also went short of US Crude last night at 42$ currentkt 42.35....think it may return to $41 or lower later today...hope so anyway?

perrie como 12:48 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
some smaller european cb's been trying to hold to down the euro again as covering the dollar bonds flows, but not enough for global standards....smells the IMM guys might be squeezed too.....It seems as the crisis is now after the wall collapse turning to the western world while the far eastern only sustaining global growth (and money)

but seemingly politicians here haven't realized what's going on as basically their school is still thinking of aseans as of the time of marco polo

Paris MAXX 12:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
oslo oskar 12:27 GMT December 9, 2004
I see the battle rages again.


I agree with you mate...I am long of Euro/$ @1.32.90 good size..currently trading 1.32 75....looking to tp and go short @ 1.33 30...played that range a few times..

Alicante RTN 12:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Both usdcad and usdjpy are testing the upper end of the ranges and could break resistances especially if jobless claims are a bit lower than the 349k last week and the 335k expected for this week.

If so, the moves can be swift and rather siable as many will be cought with weak USD shorts. However, it is still just a small correction to the overall trend.

oslo oskar 12:27 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I see the battle rages again.

Every few weeks or months we go through this routine of someone posting trades on a very short term and overly frequent basis.

It gets tedious to lots of forumites since they, the posts, do not point out, in advance what startegy the writer has in mind but only what he or she has done after the fact.

I am with those who see it as prideful boasting rather than constructive or instructive information.Enough is enough, save those posts for a chat room.

Lj gmc 12:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Maribor - be careful what is better? pay higher taxes
or loss all money in fx. good luck GT

prague jv 12:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
sorry to interupt , but ... hey KL , You asking for openiens , but you do not give any . So How can we use your commenting on "" taked 3 pips , will do it again , stop 7 and be positive for today "" , thats all I am getting from you , and it can be flustrating . So you have the right to post here as anybody , but GIVE with your post , not only say what you have done or wish you have done .

Pecs Andras 12:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
BOE unchanged
statement dec 22

Seoul 11:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
London I love to read KL's post too. He has the right to post, right? Take it easy, buddy

Budapest Daniel 11:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I love to read such a post London. Blaming the good guys means you're losing money and you want to blame them because of this... LOL

KL KL 11:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
london tony ...so what is YOUR analysis??? What possie have you got on or are you also a UN observer? Com'on share your wisdom!!

Maribor 11:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Shares of holding companies are stil cheap...It does not matter where you trade, it matters whether you make money. I am struggling with fx because of our taxes on capital gains.

london tony 11:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 11:39 GMT December 9, 2004
wut u want to show
do your trading and shut your mouth
just post ur analysis not trades
thx

KL KL 11:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out with +3 pips...maybe a long a little lower

KL KL 11:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
in long gbpusd at 1.9150..sl 10 below...2nd probe...down here either go thru or bounce up again

Lj gmc 11:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Maribor - No I m not interested for Slovenian market.
I think I now your story Slovenia is a small country.

Pecs Andras 11:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Babuyan Isl MGW 11:12 GMT December 9, 2004
friends, is there a BOE rate announcement today? what time? thanks all.

12:00 GMT, that is, is half an hour

Maribor 11:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ljubljana: ne. Si kdaj na Finance-on.net?

nyc droopy 11:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Who wants to be a demo millionaire?...Bahrain and his ten camels(,,wives) DO!!!

Here... mI 11:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
What soft do you use for
:FX5M120909
PW: Forum
i have some new idea to show it

NJ RT 11:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips : I will try that too ...sounds very interesting. Thank you

Lj gmc 11:24 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Maribor? You are been in a kviz who want s to be a MILIONAR with your girl friend? am I right?

Singapore 11:19 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Babuyan Isl MGW - 12 GMT / 7 am EST

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Yeah..I see it.
Thanks Toranto

Toronto Aviator 11:16 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 pips 10:42 GMT

Just tried your F*X*C*M* demo account.
Place order: EUR/USD Order # 6424726

Babuyan Isl MGW 11:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
friends, is there a BOE rate announcement today? what time? thanks all.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:11 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
EURAUD 1.7653 1.7493
as basic expectations

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:06 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Maribor;
Thanks...so I guess any can open that account at the same time

Maribor 11:02 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain: it works...you have lots of orders. My position today is sell EURAUD at market, stop above high.

dc fxq 11:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 10:50 GMT

335K

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 10:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
hello friends.. I have chart there.
please focuse on usd buying !

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
cad is close to sell

Atl TJ 10:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
What is the market prediction for todays Initial Claims?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
could some one Open it pls?

Budapest Daniel 10:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Geneva that would be just for the ones who are curious about how others trade and stuff like this similarly like here but in a more trackable way. If someone is not interested then do not register and do not use it...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (FX5M120909-Forum) 10:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Just did it with FXXCm Demo
U:FX5M120909
PW: Forum
I think U can open at the same time
I have it open with the levels I posted

Budapest Daniel 10:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
thanks for the ideas and your interests guys....

Bahrain, I'm not interested in making money with it, so there is no reason why I should give out demo accounts. One should register and he/she could use this right after registration.

Gen dk 10:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA FHR 10:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Do you really think that people trading all day long have the time
to trade a demo account for peanuts.Lets people trade their account with real money and not censored with a demo account.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 10:30 GMT December 9, 2004
Bahrain, thats what I'm thinking... Are you interested?///
Good idea...
maybe making a demo account with say about 20 accounts in it...each trader would assiganed one...that way it's very visial and the database is in the statment for each

U.K. J.B. 10:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 10:12

That could be a good idea, a league table of traders, but i would point out it should only apply to live accounts. At the end of the day its a great deal easier trading a demo account, would the same strategy be applied to a real live account when real emotion is experienced. Perhaps you would want to categorise the table short term pip raiders to med. term prop . trading. at the end of the day there ia a gr8 deal of b-s*it on this forum so i wish you luck taking on such a venture.

Rivonia PipPirate 10:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 09:48 GMT December 9, 2004
Little nastiness = short term, major nastiness = long term (daily chart). What a nice leading indicator.

LOL I call it trading........trading insults.

Budapest Daniel 10:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, thats what I'm thinking... Are you interested?

Dallas GEP 10:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
No biggie BAHRAIN No apologies necessary. FX is a VERY dynamic thing. Actually I was going to short around 6930 but like I was telling ML e/p looked BULLISH. Your levels are very useful. Keep posting them.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
EURGBP 0.6966 0.6819 Hold Buy
Dallas this was the mistake from yesterday...I lost too...I apologies for that

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY 203.58 198.56 Sell Buy
High Time series is sell and Low time series is Buy...
Maybe converging..
any comments from TA's?

Helsinki iw 10:17 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel, thanks for that link. Good post.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:16 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
seems that GBP is more of a buy then sell
from the levels

Sing GD 10:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Markets crazy tensions are high again and personal attacks again come to the fore ...

Guys this is a professional forum , lets all behave as such

All ideas from contributors welcome , guys you trade as you see it ...

KL KL 10:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd long at 1.9190 +40......get a life mate..that took care of -20 pips loss...+20 is still better than wasting time with those looney tunes!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 10:12 GMT December 9, 2004
Make a log web page with a database

perrie como 10:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
It seems to me the Eur/Usd is going wants to print out the following, around data release time:

Target 1.3375/55

g/l

Budapest Daniel 10:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Guys, I'm thinking about writing a program that could track everyone's positions who is interested in sharing his/her own positions (similar to trade blotters or trade history or whatever you call them). What do you think? Good or bad idea?

JHB AHG 10:11 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Noob,Capetown,Right = we love you on this forum. For us to make money we need you loosers.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Your comments are appreciated..
Dallas I am sorry about Eur/gbp

Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK Noob 10:05 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
No KL, I mean is there any way to filter out your useless bs posts from this forum.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:05 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dear Traders
I guess I should use this method for the auto system...
these are day trade levels but using daily data...
they will change on a daily basis but at least they will be able to get top and Low levels
These are the 95% confidence Interval for now...
Trends are Hold unless they more then 95% sure...so
Good Luck to all

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3506 1.3162 Sell Buy
USDJPY 105.23 102.74 Sell Hold
GBPUSD 1.9549 1.9127 Sell Buy
USDCHF 1.1643 1.1333 Sell Hold
EURCHF 1.5409 1.5228 Sell Hold
AUDUSD 0.7697 0.7460 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2260 1.2024 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7276 0.7048 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6966 0.6819 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.19 136.15 Sell Buy
GBPJPY 203.58 198.56 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.61 88.98 Hold Buy
GBPCHF 2.2474 2.1973 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7849 1.7300 Hold Hold
EURCAD 1.6398 1.5961 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9318 0.9059 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 80.05 77.33 Sell Buy

melbourne 2nite 10:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
DaLLAS GEP and others
any opinions re eurgbp daily candle chart? TIA

Atl TJ 10:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 09:53 GMT December 9, 2004
You should get your 20 to 40 Pip bounce right here. I would join you but I am going to run a couple of miles. Short should be ready by the time I get back

lon jr 09:59 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
any u guys tried censored london..had a few acc's for fx..1 pip slippage in positions or out

Manchester Daniel 09:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
WHY THE BUCK WILL REBOUND - Anatole Kaletsky

The rise of the pound to almost $2 has been driven entirely by bearish views on the dollar, rather than any particular enthusiasm for sterling

The dollar's collapse has all the characteristics of a financial speculation reaching its climax


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1061-1394830,00.html


My apologies for the late posting of this article - have had computer issues this morning and have had to trade the old fashioned way - teletext quotes on TV and telephone to broker. Slow, but profitable.

Please read the above article (interesting that although on page 21 of The Times today - the reference to this article appeared on PAGE 1 - no doubt it caught traders eyes in London as well, as Sterling been on the backfoot this AM.

KL KL 09:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
HK Noob, yep there is a way.

1. on top of this screen see the archive > click it
2. Next screen > next to Initials type Noob and click search......enjoy the filtered post!!

Budapest Daniel 09:55 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
So you're an other guy who is envious again. These types turn to be losers mainly...

ICT ML 09:55 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
well covering the long eur-gbp at 28 seemed like a brilliant move at the time.........have bout it after the break for .6950-.6995....no way the UK is raising rates with the numbers they put out lately.

Also sold gbp-usd at 91 after slippage yet again , may it continue south to 1.9100 or so.....to make up for a couple stupid moves earlier in session where I gave back perfectly good pips.

KL KL 09:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Talk less trade more...tell us where you are entering so we can decide to take the possie or not. Sometimes helpful sometimes not but a good trigger to tell us what else to look for....all this chit chat cost me now 20 pips...rats...thanks a lot...
ok again in long 1.9150...come on must be some support here...sl 15 below...getting angrily generous

HK Noob 09:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi, is there any way to filter out the crap that gets posted here every five minutes by Valdez GEP KL etc. TIA

Atl TJ 09:48 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Holy crap! I think I have discovered the Holy Grail of FX Trading. When the civility of this forum turns ugly we are at a turning point. Degree of nastiness is in direction relation to the time frame. Little nastiness = short term, major nastiness = long term (daily chart). What a nice leading indicator.

Los Angeles ss 09:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP and KL -- just keep on doing what you do, I for one find your input useful. Just like these forums were designed to do.

Dallas GEP 09:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
To each his own opinion, could care less really RIGHT.

KL KL 09:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
long again 1.9169 sl 10 below....

LDN Right.... 09:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP, jumping to the defense of KL makes your already shaky reputation look even more dodgy.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I like for the market to make the move first instead of guessing where it is going but maybe that is just my way of thinking. BTW eur/usd is creating a small bullish symmetrical triangle and as long as the support (3250-80) holds the bulls will mount an attack on the 3500 barrier IMHO. GL GT

KL KL 09:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
London Richie, I see you need some advise...well care to join me on this long gbpusd at 1.9193...sl 7 below...

Dallas GEP 09:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Right, ZYour Statement is totally inaccurate. I have repeatedly said I usually trade off 30 minute and 1 hour charts. KL uses a much quicker signaling system than I do but it works well for him apparently and that's great. The only thing I have been doing QUICKER lately is that I take profit quicker than I used to because of the volatility of the market. So inherently I am taking more trades but nowhere near as many as KL. I may take 5-6 per session and I am flat now and have been for some time.

BTW ML. e/p longed up just like we thought!!! LOL

Dallas Mauricio 09:32 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Testy today?

LDN Right.... 09:23 GMT December 9, 2004
Capetown, as someone mentioned earlier, KL and GEP appear to believe that "5-min chart trading" means posting some crap every 5 minutes or even more frequently, solely for their self amusement as clearly it has no value to anyone.

gold coast martin 09:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   


Paris A.J. 09:22 GMT December 9, 2004
We need Sammy to post some positions here so we can all see his trading style...then we can all send cheques......

london iain 09:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
come on guys, don't be so mean. You can't argue with guaranteed profits, after all.....

Paris MAXX 09:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
la so

Sure buddy where do I send the cheque? lol

LDN Right.... 09:23 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Capetown, as someone mentioned earlier, KL and GEP appear to believe that "5-min chart trading" means posting some crap every 5 minutes or even more frequently, solely for their self amusement as clearly it has no value to anyone.

Paris A.J. 09:22 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
La So

Please give people on this Forum some respect. Do you think any participant here would be stupid enough to do business with you a dodgey Nigerian.

Now clear off......

Helsinki iw 09:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Hey Sammy, long time no see. Which way round is your position now?

London Richie 09:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL KL // give us a break with your bs.

oh, by the way, forgot to mention that bought cable at the very low, and sold at the top * again*

u u 09:19 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
i

KL KL 09:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I must admit my hands are itchy to tp on my short earlier...but my ego is saying ride it down to 1.80...LOL..
ok out 1.9219 +59...pips in hand better than pips in air!!

Atl TJ 09:11 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
It looks to me like Euro might be heading south for the next few hours leading up to Claims Report.

Atl TJ 09:06 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town 08:57 GMT December 9, 2004
You are not stupid. But what you can do is go back and see where these folks are entering and exiting trades. You will get an idea of what they are doing.

ICT ML 08:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Biled on the eur-gbp GEP.........took too long to break 30

Cape Town 08:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I'm trying to work out the value of mentioning a trade (without any reasoning) taken 30 minutes before a post is made reporting the fact afterwards. Is there something else I'm missing, or am I just plain stupid?

Dallas GEP 08:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL in doing these QUICKIE trades I have to stop manually using either CLOSE position OR MARKET order going opposite direction. If I enter stop at time of trade it will ALMOST every time get stopped out EVEN if market DOESN't hit my stop on other feeds. STOP hunting at it's finest. So if market prints as close as 2-3 pips from my stop elsewhere, they WILL take it!!!

Dallas GEP 08:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
YEp ML, THX. It is looking still bullish Normally I would be shorting the shittt out of it here. But I am waiting to see if any signs of failure present themselves. ALMOST tempted to actually LONG it here but level is pretty high

KL KL 08:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I finally got to the bottom of those SL problems I have been experiencing. Apparently if the market price gaps by 2 pips or more over your sl level then it will not honour your sl. The solution is to have a few sl set and have whichever gets executed cancelled all other sl by linking them...like oco.....this is not good...imho....looks like in volitile time better watch like EAGLE EYE!!...I trust no systems...any of your platform/brokers have the same understanding??

btw shorted gbpusd at 1.9278...thinking of letting this one run even after BOE...but first there is more locking in 5 pips first...never want to lose!!!

B.A. BOCA 08:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
MOSCOW (Dow Jones)--Russian financial market regulator Oleg Vyugin has called for greater transparency in the Russian central bank's foreign exchange policies and for a floating rate regime for the Russian ruble, the news agency Prime-Tass reported late Wednesday.

The banking system was shaken earlier this year by the central bank's abrupt decision to stop the ruble appreciating, causing many banks foreign exchange losses.

"The (central bank) is leading (Russian) banks astray," Vyugin said. "It is strange that officials are playing this game."

SanFrancisco TG 08:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Sounds great JF, look forward to it. BTW, have locked in small corresponding gains those 3 pairs and just trailing (if they have anything to them). MOF mouthing off but if they havent intervened 2 figures below here I doubt they will for now at these levels. R/R is good for the 3 but who knows till its done eh. Enjoy the dinna

ICT ML 08:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP it seems to be absorbing all the range traders .6925-28 offers for the last 30 mins or so. I bot some earlier and think it just culd bust loose for .6950 at least.

Dallas GEP 08:26 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Well SIMPLY based on LEVEL, eur/gbp should be shorted HERE but from a chart standpoint it is still very bullish

tk jf 08:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
im going to dinner soon but will chat on messenger another time ill speak to jay later if thats ok

SanFrancisco TG 08:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Hi JF. The company does, my weekly forecasts used to be on it until I wanted a break from it. I will have my own as well by Monday hopefully. Anything I can do for you? :)

perrie como 08:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
interesting aseans buy on deep mentality as europeans buying usd bonds and waiting fridays ppi knocking on wood

funny global casino

tk jf 08:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
tg do u have website?

LA Ty 08:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
it REMAINS bull but it looks to be changing to bear. only for short term.

SanFrancisco TG 08:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd is long, $yen is short (near term intra day). $chf is short but allowing some bids to clear out for 15 min or so before hitting it.

B.A. BOCA 08:07 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
cable formed a rather ugly head and shoulders pattern on hourlies, neck line is 9190...

nothing is pretty these days on the charts.

tk jf 08:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
athens kos44 08:00 GMT December 9, 2004
for clarity turn it upside down

athens kos44 08:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   

LA Ty 07:56 GMT December 9, 2004
Hi.. Using daily charts the eurusd remains bull. Look for moving averages, indicators, osscilators, etc.

Gd

LA Ty 07:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I was looking at the daily chart and it looks like the EUR/USD downtrend should continue even more. More mid term, not intraday. Does anyone else agree or disagree?

Dallas GEP 07:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I hate to keep harping on this but this eur/gbp action is VERY unusual Could BE heading up to 7000 area those 6930 folks will not be able to hold this back BOE rate decision may be causing eur/gbp to short as well with long gbp positions being perhaps liquidated prior to annoucement

lon jr 07:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Cable bids 10-20 asia...good stops below (192)

B.A. BOCA 07:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dutch gov. lowers economic forcasts...blaiming it on oil, euro..

orlando jcr 07:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I must get rest....

Missed many opportunities today for large PIP gain, but made some decent small trades, survived a bad upside down trap by cable, and exeeded my daily goal, so I guess it was a good night.

I'm tempted to do one more trade, but that is the one that always is a loser for me, so I will just call it quits - even though there is good movement.

Hopefully the AM will have some good movement too.
GL & GT to all... and to all a good night.

lon jr 07:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP STOPS 6930 EURO/STG FYI

Dallas GEP 07:41 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
The 30 minute candle pattern is a stange on EUR/GBP Thta doesn't seem quite natural to me.

Dallas GEP 07:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I tell you the ccy that presently VERY surprisingly active because it is moving unchracteristically fast is EUR/GBP. Looking at levels now. May be getting getting to go into higher tarding channel

sofia anmart fx 07:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD is a buy for 1.3470
USD/JPY sell for 101.90 ?

KL KL 07:32 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
jcr, look at the shorter time frame to get out. If you are shorting and the bar is extended from ma...take it and run...sooner or later it will move back near the MA....I don't think I pick top or bottom well...just make the 3 or 4 pips and tally up end of day! I am flat now and waiting ..looking at other currency like eurjpy, usdchf, audusd, eurusd...gold

Tallinn viies 07:27 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
yesterday wasnt too nice day for some of us....
anyway. out of my long euro but still keeping long euryen.
bought more sec ago at 138,59 and will keep buying it on corrections.
first target 139,10/15. will sell there half. to buy later again.
euryen looks increasingly bullish on hourly and daily charts

KL KL 07:27 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out long at 64 +8.....just take the pips...re short higher

KL KL 07:24 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9288...out 56 +32....SAR and long here sl 7 below

orlando jcr 07:23 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I must admit, I am NOWHERE near as good at finding the tops & bottoms as GEP & KL.
I got out much to early on cable short. Looks like I missed out on about 25PIP+

Keep repeating to myself..... "any +PIP is a good PIP"

orlando jcr 07:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
that was 2nd short from 1.9204.
First one was out at 1.9294

orlando jcr 07:18 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Out cable short 1.9288

lax-lgb SNP 07:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
one peak does not a top make ... or does it ? ;-) haha
GL GT everyone !

lax-lgb SNP 07:13 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
mid-0.75 ought to hold for aud$ to retrace but $cad remains safely above 1.2170 ... considering a hedge with a quick SAR short on $cad

wellington am 07:07 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY put in a top yet perhaps ...? Long way back down.

KL KL 07:02 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
short cable at 1.9315....sl 9 above...due to inflation...good...working nicely...locking in 2 pips....hmm ...hope it goes down now & fast..tempted to take at 01...99...97...but feeling greedy..ok out 97 that took care of my -17, +1 now...phew..will reshort a bit higher

hong kong nt 06:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
BC -- your EUR/JPY range 134-139 works magic, top trades to you...

orlando jcr 06:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Trying a cable short at 1.9304
SL at 10 this time...
Don't have a TP yet.

chicago joe 06:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL just no luck for you tonight, lol. Hope ur persistence pays off though.

KL KL 06:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out 1.9280...-4 a bit too early...very soon now -17 now

KL KL 06:36 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9276 sl 7 above

orlando jcr 06:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   

Well, contrary to KL's regular advise, I didn't have my SL placed when the GBP tanked...

I was able to 'double-up' a couple of times to pull out a ++ trade....!!! I was a bit worried at 9228 that it would lose it's handle.

Out at 9268 (a little early, but I was happy for positive trade) with +7PIP. I should have had a trailing stop rather than a TP as it has passed my exit by a few points now...

KL KL 06:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, thanks for info ..well my loss is now back to -13..since the last boo boo....should have could have... BOE Rate decision today may help the slide.....then again it could have been factored in...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Day trade
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3330 1.3204 Hold Hold
USDJPY 104.9074 103.8242 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9314 1.9168 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1607 1.1492 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5349 1.5302 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7626 0.7533 Hold Hold
USDCAD 1.2278 1.2134 Hold Hold
NZDUSD 0.7185 0.7056 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6907 0.6881 Sell Hold
EURJPY 138.8978 138.1141 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 201.5213 199.9491 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.5984 90.0581 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2285 2.2166 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7586 1.7430 Hold Hold
EURCAD 1.6254 1.6147 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9286 0.9199 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 79.3426 78.8159 Sell Hold

Brisbane L 06:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc for the big picture
( complete its last leg of downside first..
Usd/Chf 1.12 as the next downside target first..)

what sort of time scale are you thinking of , or is that too difficult to envisage in this type os a market.

shanghai bc 06:09 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   

L 05:11 --Good afternoon..Dollar never staged any decent bounce for a long time and commodity market's downturn provided a good reason for Dollar bounce after making a new low only two days ago..Guess Dollar may consolidate for a while and make the next move.。And it may complete its last leg of downside first..Usd/Chf 1.12 as the next downside target first..Imho..Good trades.

Makassar Alimin 06:07 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
for bulls, pray that 1.3250 will hold at least for today, if successfully defended will give another lifeline to attack 1.3450 starting friday tomorrow to next week with plenty of us data releases as potential triggers but remember also that all negative stories have been priced in so far, will take much much worse data to bring euro higher than the recent high we have seen

Ltn th 06:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Poachers after ivory will start lying in wait for elephants now 5y T sales winding down and poor equity fundamentals weigh on both yen and USD. Euro and GBP equities looking positive.

melbourne farmacia 05:58 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL - sorry 1.9190 / 1.9142 & 1.9090 if slide continues...
gota go.. Thunder storms about.

Makassar Alimin 05:51 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
if the same elephants as yesterday decide to hunt more stops in euro, we might see 1.3083 traded, but it is probably too early to say this
i must admit very surprising though looking at the chart where i left it 10 hours ago, a lot has happened, and i missed all of them LOL
1.3350 was taken but falling back to under 1.3280, bears are in control

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
106 for yen would be it for 100

Ldn 05:38 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
DJ.)Technical signals from NY BOT's USD Index which now around 82.04 suggest longer term USD downtrend intact, no strong basis to push USD up sharply from current levels, says technical analyst Andrew Torchia. Sees strong underlying resistance at January-February lows of 84.56-80 as attractive place to sell index on rally. If index breaks April 1995 low of 80.05, expect fall to stronger support on August 1992 low of 78.19 .

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GM all..
GBP/CHF longing at drops around 2.2190 area

melbourne farmacia 05:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL - watch yourself mate.. could slide to 1.9090

KL KL 05:25 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
in long gbpusd 1.9250

Mfld JM 05:19 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed gbp short 9258 getting sleepy - good night!

Brisbane L 05:11 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC, not seen you around recently, would like your view on this USD rally and what time scale do you see it lasting . Do you see the Aud hitting 80 before 70 also sorry to ask so much thanks

LA Fxnew 04:55 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
gep:
whats ur view on usd/jpy?
thanks

Sydney 04:38 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
A surprise increase in employment sent Australia's jobless rate to a new 27-year low in November, reinvigorating expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to raise interest rates next year and destabilizing minority calls for rate cuts. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in November from 5.3% in October as the number of employed rose 24,500, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.
The unemployment rate is now at its lowest since the monthly series began in February 1978, and matches the February 1977 reading from the old quarterly series. Economists said the jobs data implies the economy hasn't slowed as much as official statistics suggest.
"This will put the cat among the pigeons,"
BT Financial Group.

tk jf 04:36 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
jv- i still think eur/gbp goes down but i dont watch it intraday to know wht the swings wud be

KL KL 04:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short 1.9278 out 1.9292 +14...still looking for 3 more

Mfld JM 04:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Okay - that was 9277 not 9377 Anyway will add to short posi at 9295 if seen soon

Mfld JM 04:12 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed 2/3 of posi at 9377

KL KL 04:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
-17 so far on my down trend...long again 1.9278 sl 10

NYCNYCNYC 04:06 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
sensing sentiment remains pretty bullish eur/usd.
too much so, maybe.

KL KL 04:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
ha ha eat my dust gbpusd out +2 at 1.93...long again 1.9288...sl 7 below

Mfld JM 04:02 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP 9289 looking for 9250ish, SL @ 9307

prague jv 03:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
morning JF ,good day for you as well .

KL KL 03:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
long again gbpusd 1.9298...no more shut eyes

van Gecko 03:48 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
London 15:06.. exact market turning points are only evident in hindsight after the market had moved long past the previous tops & bottoms.. anyone who tells you they can consistently pin point the exact market swings in advance are born again Houdini wannabees.. one of the many tricks of the trade in this biz is to follow the market after it had taken out some major levels from a previous major or intermediate tops/bottoms (ie. turtles).. another trick is in applying good sound analytics to identify market reactions at/near major market levels or inflection points and scale in positions in anticipation of a directional change.. both methods (or any methods) requires sound risk & positional trade management tactics within the traders comfort zones in-order to enhanced ones longevity & make real money consistently in this biz..
as for 'quick change artists' who thinks they can beat the market trading micro noise swings.. while some of those rare breed may indeed exist in real life, had never meet any who can consistently make real money & survive over the long haul.. imo successful 'low risk' short term noise swing trading myths exist only in books & subscriptions hypes..

ICT ML 03:00.. cheers.. gl with your possies..

Hong Kong Qindex 03:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Sydney 03:46 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Treasurer Expects Strong Retail Sales In Dec

nyc Joel 03:42 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA TY
Why do you talk in riddles time and time again
If you have something to say -SAY IT
I am sure you are a very astute trader
So throw your stuff out there for everyone to comprehend

tk jf 03:36 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
ml-jv-im gd morning - gt today-

Halifax CB 03:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Just remembered what a problem 1.333 was in EURUSD not that long ago, going the other direction. Discretion being the better part of valour, I think I'm going to go read a book & have a glass of pinot noir until well after 1.330 is broken. Later...GL/GT...

Halifax CB 03:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
In my more cynical moods, I wonder whether things like the EU ban on exporting arms to China (current talks) affects forex. Funny how the pressure on a stronger euro lightened up once the talks started going harmoniously. Certainly China has the financial muscle to wage war through forex....

prague jv 03:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp ready to go back higher . daily mixt , so for now calling 0.6970 and then we will see where to next .

ICT ML 03:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 02:00 GMT December 9, 2004
right on mate, just have to let all the die hards and jonny come lates buy back in:-) we shall see what happens in a few hours.

we're short cable and long $Yen right now and look to sell into aussie blip adn maybe buy more $cad. Aussie gave a daily sell signal last week and don't think its done selling off just yet myself. Not ready to pronounce the euro bulls dead yet, but it shuldn't have fallen so low so fast if there was real $$$$ buying interest at these levels I think. Cuold be wrong though......

Yday in Ldn session was talking to JF and after selling euro, gbp, aud and cad vs $$$ for a nice little run down, I proudly announced that "I was done for the day, its just giong to bounce around a bit in NY session", took the good pips and went to bed......to wake up to see that they all fell another 100 pips or so........what a way to start the day...Hahaha

Halifax CB 02:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
More thoughts - Noticed that EURUSD has completed a 618 retracement of the fall from its peak, as has GBPUSD, and both seem to be continuing the down trend. So it's a good time to look for confirmation for more shorts USDCAD is also looking like a buy (RSI(13), P-SAR) on the 30 min & under charts, which a bit risky...

LA Ty 02:19 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
wow.... EUR/CHF/GBP dead.....

KL KL 02:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...I mean too busy collecting pips until no time for self maintenance....LOL

KL KL 02:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez...I thought GEP needed those large shoes for his long toe nails....LOL

Dallas GEP 02:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Aussie and usd/cad MOST of the time move pretty much in opposite directions. Fairly good relationship.

Dallas GEP 02:07 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LOL, Valdez, I wish!!! C ya later

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
With the aud/usd I have next support key 7510-20, 7420-30 and 7350-60. This pair has turned the signals bearish and looking for a deeper correction as long as it stays under 7590-7600 and 7660-80 it will seek to take out the support lines IMHO. GL GT

LA Ty 02:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
one of these candles is going to blow its load. lol

LA Ty 02:02 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
or wasn't it "Buckle up Dorothy ...cause Kansas is going bye bye.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:02 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I heard GEP wears size 15 western boots but his true size is a 10..needs all that extra space for all those bloomin' pips. LOL..hasta la outahere.

Dallas GEP 02:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Thnx, Valdez....!!!

LA Ty 02:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Buckle up...cause Dorothy is going bye bye.

van Gecko 02:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
its was around the same time yesterday the Dollar got rolling in Asia.. major sentiment shifts in the minds of market moving elephants usually don't change over-night..
cheerios..

Dallas GEP 01:59 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
OK then,,,, Aussie has shown us I THINK it is a SELL on RALLIES. Out at 7568 -17, can't win them all!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:59 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Tell U what GEP, for every bonehead move you make you score 50 good ones. But then again, you are a Texan.

LA Ty 01:58 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
wow.. Ive never seen a mixture of 10 hammers, dojis and gravestones side by side on a 5 minute chart before.

Dallas GEP 01:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Gracias, Este es Mi' primero rodeo!!!!

just kidding!!!!

Dallas GEP 01:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I dunno WTH I was thinking when I with that manual stop @ 7575 on Aussie. Clearly the support IS and HAS been at 7570. I guess I was thinking in terms of a 10 pip stop. LOL What a bonehead move!!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I bet you are, GEP buddy. Put me in your wallet! Your clients must be awsomely happy...I'd estimate way over 700 pips in last 10 days for U w/ increase of >1M in cap overall. You're way too modest ("Downtown Dallas."..remember??? LOL). Kick butt big guy.

gold coast martin 01:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP...If there is any going to be any meaningful support for the ozzie short term it is the 7556 level,,,,fwiw....

gold coast martin 01:52 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
...LOL...I was reffering to..if you exit you can always enter again actually..lol.....

LA Ty 01:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
here we go.. some bids being placed, some panic lol lets see where this takes us.

Dallas GEP 01:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ok this 7570 is support on AUSSIE. If it doesn't hold I am OUT on these AUSSIE longs

LA Ty 01:49 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
gold coast > HaHA I didn't mean "if in doubt, stay out" (of the hoe) , but that will do lol. Its my motto for FX. lol

prague jv 01:49 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd has no direction , till belowe 1.9400 and above 1.9320 . gl

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:49 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I wanted to find out how much of a dent the bears would make on the bulls armor and I did. A valid effort by the bears in the eur/usd pair but they came shy at the end of the day. A close under the 3280-3300 area would have put more pressure on the bulls but as suspected eur/jpy did not sympathize with the bears this time as it reached the resistance (139.00-10) without many problems. With immediate resistance around the 3360-70 area I will wait to see how high this bounce goes while the indicators are finally turning bearish. I have no buy signal at this time so the bears might not be finished yet with this move.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3380-3400, 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3550-60, 3400-10 and 3370-80 Support T/L 3020-30.
Support is around the 3300-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80 and 3040-60 for now key support is around the 3170-80 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 01:47 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Well Mi' amigo. I haven't been counting but I am very happy with it for sure!!!!

gold coast martin 01:46 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:44 GMT December 9, 2004
LOL...This applies to forex as well......

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:46 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
ty// No, sorry, we've derailed in communication here...sorry...not talking short term nor equating today with 1 year ago..only saying long term it's typical of €/$ to peak after 1,000-1,500 pip upsurges, reverse, peak again about the same value as prev peak, reverse again..cycling 2-4 times like this in 450-500 pip quick sudden range jumps, forming more or less a double or quadrupple peak, then a 1,000-1,200 pip decline equal but mirror image of the incline which formed the peak in the first place. Since this pair is nearing the end of an incline from 2002, we'll see some real volitility & t/p hunting grounds well into Q1 05, hopefully into Q2 05. Great time to trade in my op. GT all..signing off 'til maybe Fri. New 'puter, broadband connection & platform all next week...fritz city.

Dallas GEP 01:46 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I am working the stops on some of these quick possies with the close position screen because platform providers are stop hunting. I would have been already OUT on that AUSSIE short but I am working it manually.

LA Ty 01:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
oh, well. nothing wrong with exiting and re-entering. If in doubt, stay out.

LA Ty 01:43 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF has 3 gravestones and 2 dojis in a row... HaHa

dc fxq 01:41 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:35 GMT

it feels that way to me.

LA Ty 01:40 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I closed my short position.... im not comfortable with it. I'll re-enter once I see something interesting. Watch me miss a huge spike LOL

LA Ty 01:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD + GBP/USD + USD/CHF all very indecisive

Toronto Aviator 01:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:32 GMT

Which chart are you referring to??
Many thanks in anticipation

LA Fxnew 01:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
can anyone advise a direction for cable pls?
thanks

LA Ty 01:36 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
but Valdez, Im talking short term / intraday like now. Are you saying there was a reversal at this time last year too ?

sg kan 01:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
what's your view on eur and gbp.

LA Ty 01:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
5 minute charts

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA ty// Why do I feel a reversal? Check 3 year €/$ chart..pick any of the 5 major peaks you want..superimpose this peak (from 1.22) over any of them..see the correlations?

Dallas GEP// Congrats amigo on last week's & this weeks trades thus far..you flat tear it up, bubba! Well done. What's your pip net last 10 days? Just curious...you're amazing.

LA Ty 01:35 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
theres somethin major goin on.... anyone get that feeling?

Chicago Irish 01:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA ty.............What timeframe are you looking at ?

LA Ty 01:32 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
double hammers then a doji THEN a potential gravestone? ...market is very odd right now....

Tokyo IM 01:31 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.

LA Ty 01:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
lol

LA Ty 01:30 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Why do I feel a reversal? Because Im inexperienced?

LA Ty 01:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
fxtrek blacks out sometimes.

LA Ty 01:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
i have some minor support at 3270 if I stay in, but price action is strange right now.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:29 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Any reason my free fxtrek charts aren't online?

Dallas GEP 01:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
long AUSSIE 7585 10 pip stop

van Gecko 01:28 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 22:56.. i think after letting the bulls blow past 1.30 & blew their chance in putting out the fire at the bud..the market dynamics of the last few days suggest they had adopted a psycho/passive 'get more bang for bucks spent' tactic instead of the reactive 'in you face' style of the past..
realizing time & money is on their side, they may be content with covert massaging of certain lines in the sand and let the mounting psychological pressures to play its tricks in the mind of the bulls for an orderly natural turn..
some objective thinking seasoned bulls will see the underlying writings on the wall and get out while the going is good.. where as the more subjective types & late comers joining the party will always add some last minute liquidity near the end of all trends..

Los Angeles ss 01:27 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Anyone care to venture a guess on the low for EURUSD for the Asian session???

LA Ty 01:27 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
hmm i dont like whats happening here.. seems odd.

sg kan 01:26 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty
what is your support level for EUR and GBP. TIA

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:26 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
See my post on Financial Forum.
Expect (but not a prediction!) €/$ 1.3000-1.3100 correction bottom (if this is indeed a "correction move" for €/$) because since 2002 has dipped 450-500 pips quick after forming a peak (as we just did shy of 1.35 since 1.22). Expect quick 450-500 pip ranges..2 to 4 of them culminating in a double peakish formation before a true decline in this pair's chart (based on history from 2002). Don't worry about grabbing all the pips..get what you're comfortable with, but don't get on the "wrong side" either...wait it out a bit when you close to make sure range move has maxed. Bias to swing trading & patience next 2 weeks to limit risk, maximize t/p's.

melbourne farmacia 01:22 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
KL – Until 1.9020/50 breaks, I’ll continue buying off channel supports & dumping top end… 3 odd figure swing range.. GT

Fwiw – Internal Centrelink memo dated 26th august 04, outlines new government requirements for classification of unemployed… ( long history both sides of government ) but this document is a ripping read. Expect 5.1 % early 05…

Dallas GEP 01:22 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Closed AUSSIE 7595 +19. This 7590 is short term support

LA Ty 01:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
should tumble now.

Syd 01:16 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP I will remind you when it does so hang on to them

London 01:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Australia's jobless rate hit a new 27-year low in November

KL KL 01:15 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
in gbpusd long 1.9341...

LA Ty 01:14 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
thanks fxq.

Philadelphia Caba 01:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy 139.00-10 still holds...it's just matter of time for eur to broke up?

Dallas GEP 01:09 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
OK They will some bids at 7600 on AUSSIE

dc fxq 01:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
MARTINized

haven't heard that phrase in a coon's age

dc fxq 01:08 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 01:01 GMT

EUR/GBP

LA Ty 01:05 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
EUR and GBP might take a tumble again

Dallas GEP 01:04 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
OK this AUSSIE needs to be MARTINized SHORT,

Gen dk 01:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 01:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Well SYD, I better hang on to my gold bars then!!! LOL

LA Ty 01:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
the EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY have some good positive correlation... what is the negative pair of those two charts?

gold coast martin 01:00 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
SYD GVM......The dates to keep in mind is between the 16th-19th of december as these are dates where funds exiting will reach a climax...will give you extra reaso to celebrate on a friday....g/t

Syd 00:57 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP Gold is said to be going to $500 next year

sydney gvm 00:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Martin - thks for your comments on AUD yesterday bought my aussie back @ 7555 last night

NJ RT 00:56 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
thank you Dallas

KL KL 00:54 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
GEP, aud not bolted due to gold...keep an eye on it. was yesterday mega move on gold one off or is there follow thru tonight/later...some US data out as well! This week trading is like tornada, hurricane, earth quake, flood, snow, rain, hail, shine...all in one area...LOL

btw out short gbpusd at 1.9370 +8

Dallas GEP 00:53 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Well RT...I may try a short from 1.3380

Philadelphia Caba 00:50 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy heading again close to 139.00-10 barrier.

gold coast martin 00:49 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:39 GMT December 9, 2004
This employment data is seasonal gep..as i posted before the shacles of a high trade deficit , the threat of the burst of the assett bubble and the passing of the peak of the commodity cycle,are long term factors that in the short term have prevented the aussie to reach yearly highs....in the short term expect some action in the mid 7550s-76....i refer again to the crucial resistance level of 7483-89...if this one is breached no hope of seeing 78 again for at least 8 months......g/t

Brisbane L 00:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Really good numbers AUD Data, we may get a dip if the Euro and GBP take another hit lower, so really it has to be on my XMas list

NJ RT 00:44 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP : where do you see eurusd next? Appreciate your input. Thank you

Dallas GEP 00:39 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Aussis should have bolted long on data but did not.....looking SLIGHTLY bearish but could be delayed reaction THEN long Stop is at 7629 now

LA Ty 00:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
that EUR resistance is at about the same place as GBP/USD resistance @ 9410.

NJ RT 00:37 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
guys ...where I can get a GOOD news site. The one provided by my broker sucks

LA Ty 00:36 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
So are you guys expecting Asia to follow USA ? Don't forget EUR/USD resistance @ 3384.

Dallas GEP 00:34 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
7614 short AUSSIE 50/50 chance

Syd 00:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
DJ Australian Nov Employment +24,500; Consensus -10,000
Australian Full-Time Employment +28,900
Australian Participation Rate 63.7%; Consensus 63.6%
SNAP: Australian Nov Unemployment Rate 5.2%

KL KL 00:33 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9379

Top of the day Farmacia...where were you giving me the guidance yesterday in matters of support or resistance...LOL
Was trading like a mad man. So has the trend changed yet or just profit taking week??

LA Ty 00:32 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
koishi > wakatta. domo. omoshiroi desu

Pecs Andras 00:32 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Aussie job up 24K, top of the wide exp range

Toronto YV 00:31 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
AUS Nov Unempl 5.2 , 5.4 consensus

Sapporo Koishi 00:24 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Ty, sorry I got that story alittle mixed up, i found the article again, A exchange traded fund that specialises in gold bullion will open next yr on the Dow. article

chicago joe 00:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
I don't see how euro could make new highs this week given the fed meets on tuesday, if anything market should try to price a rate hike in.

Sydney 00:21 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
.JP. Morgan recommends unwinding USD/JPY short positions as sell-signal on technical charts disappeared after pair's overnight rise. "We may have underestimated the risk of speculators' unwinding of dollar shorts." Notes USD's rise also due to renewed attention to interest rates, as seen in USD/CAD's rise after Tuesday's BOC announcement suggesting may keep rates steady for some time. "The dollar may get temporary support if prospects of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed heighten," on next week's FOMC statement, Fed officials' remarks
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank

Dallas GEP 00:20 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Aussie data in 10 minutes. In meantime AUSSIE is longing to daily high

Sapporo Koishi 00:10 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
TY, Ohaiyoo, Watshi wa Nihonjin dewa arimasen. Igirisujin desu.

KL KL 00:03 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd at 65 +16...flat now

Brisbane 00:02 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Australia Inflation Expectations At One-Year Low In Dec
survey of inflationary expectations in December shows Australian consumers expect prices to rise 3.5% over the next 12 months, down sharply from 4.5% in November. inflation expectations are at their lowest level since December 2003

The Melbourne University's Institute of Applied Economic & Social Research

LA Ty 00:01 GMT December 9, 2004 Reply   
Koishi san> nihonjin desu ka? mae ni watashi wa tokyo ni sunde imashita. Mitaka shi shiteru?watashi wa kanadajin desu ga vancouver to LA ni sunde imasu.

 




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