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Forex Forum Archive for 12/10/2004

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Global-View Suggestion Box 23:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
This LINK is to our bookstore. If you have any suggestions for books we should add, send us an EMAIL

GVI john 22:20 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Free forex history on the right sidebar to 1996 from GVI, or look for another link on the homepage.

LA Fxnew 21:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
helo everyone .....
does anybody know where to get a good history of forex data? ( high , low , and timing)

thanks

Gen dk 21:42 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ICT ML 21:41 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 16:54 GMT December 10, 2004
ICT > "THe nice thing is you have a good idea where to put a stop."

How so?

Well if you know historically that the 30 min EMA50 holds a pullback within 15-20 pips if the move continues, than you know that your stop can be 20 pips or so on the other side of that EMA50. IF a move breaks through the EMA50, it usually heads for the EMA200 in short order. So it gives yuo a visual rfference as to when to cut a loss or maybe to cut and reverse.

Read the "Random THoughts" , it explains some things about the EMA's in real world use.

have a good weekend all.

LA Ty 21:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
yeah, thas what I figured... anyway guys.. have a good weekend ! nice chattin wit ya

NYC 21:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LA, market is about shut.

lj, it may depend on what eur/jpy does but 1.30 appears to be a reach.

LA Ty 21:21 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
so still some action to bad had on EUR/USD or no ?

Seattle fj 21:11 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Great thanks for all the intelligent feedback! Finally a good place to post messages!

So what I take is that for sometime to come the $$ weakness will continue.

Now talking about ST techenicals. Does it look like that $$ will test 1.30 against euro before resuming its fall?

Dallas GEP 20:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well Stubbs, my mid-long term views are somewha less valuble than my short term views because I am simply BETTER short term than long term and that's why I day trade. So with that in mind I think we see 1.1800-1.1850 next week probably early in the week.

Gen dk 20:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manila stubbs 20:23 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:23 GMT December 3, 2004
Stubbs...YES I agree completely Will take CHF long from 1490 with 15 pip stop.....OUT before NFP tho

manila stubbs 10:18 GMT December 3, 2004

im thinking about longing $chf, but for the short run only - targetting 1.1820. from there i will start collecting shorts again - i think the 1.1000 level will be challenged by early 2005, possibly even breached. same with the euro - im looking for a bottom at 1.2850, if this is indeed the long-awaited correction.

Gep, do you still share this view with me? would like to know your longer term point of view.
TIA

Dallas GEP 20:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
30 minute and 1 hour for stoch, bollingers, and MACD 2 hours for moving averages

Quebec Swap 20:20 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

What time frame do you usually use for signals on charts?

Dallas GEP 20:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well AUSSIE in last 30 minutes made a nice little move from 7520 to 7505

SanFrancisco TG 20:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I posted the following in November and it will continue to remain the facts. The bottom line is the US deficit is more a matter of market psychology and political propoganda than a problem of potentially catastrophic proportion. Regardless, the "buzz" will continue to add to concern and markets will likely continue to react to an undetermined extent.

...

Although the US 2004 deficit would be a record in nominal dollars, it would represent a smaller share of the economy--4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) per the US Congressional Budget Office --than the deficits recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s.

For the 10 years from 2005 through 2014, CBO projects that current policies would produce a cumulative deficit of $1.9 trillion, or 1.3 percent of total GDP over that period.

There are also fundamental structural differences in what a deficit means to the EU economy vs the US economy, with the latter having certain advantages, fleximility among them.

LondonJoe 20:10 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Pumpkin, therefore normalisation of rates in the USA may be very hard to achieve for the reasons you mention,, additionally the level of household debt in many g7+commonwealth countries is staggering.. an incremental shift in rates has a multiplying effect on debt servicing at a household and national level..... every Central Bank that has been in a hiking cycle on the last year has stopped short of deliverying the "medicine" that they would want to deliver... RBA only 50bp... their smallest hiking cycle to date.. BOC & RBNZ , hands tied by currency.. BOE , the short sterling strip implied an additional 100bp of tightening 5-6 months ago... this wasnt delivered and the market is talking about rate cuts in the UK next year... and the FED... I think FF top out at 2.50pct max and stay there for a long while .. for the above mentioned reasons ... a lot less than what is priced in the eurodollar futures curve currently..3.00-3.50 next year..4.00 on 2006....

Tor Pumpkin 19:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Funny that you ask that Seattle. I was reading a report just as you posted your questions about rising int rates and the dollar: "Even if the trade deficit were to stabilize at a mere $626 bio annually, the cost of servicing the many trillions of outstanding debts will grow, through compound interest and rising interest rates when the Fed eventually returns rates toward normalcy." Implying the curr. acct balance will soar.

SanFrancisco TG 19:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
JF - I'm no true expert but I wonder if the idea of rate hikes are a bit premature, if anything it seems there could be one small one then a period of no action. US stocks are poised for a substantial move (not sure if up or down yet) so depending on outcome that should contribute to the logic of dollar movement to come. Fact is the US is in no way done with its weak dollar policy and rebalancing of the once overheated currency. Factor in the doomsayers, and the hype mongers, and the overblown deficit concerns and pressure remains on the currency. So one would think if it gains the gains have a limitation.

NYC 19:50 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
fj, That is the major question, which is at what interest rate differential does it become a dollar positive to compensate foreigners for the risk of holding dollars. I think it is wider than what we are seeing currently.

Memphis Charles 19:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
1. It depends

2. It depends.

LA Ty 19:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
k, big D... I'm waiting :) something is even on da move now it seems.

Seattle fj 19:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Inflation and Dollar.

Well seems like inflation might be on the rise. If this is true in coming CPI number then that could put pressure on the fed to raise rates.

1. If Feds are raising rates due to strong inflationarty pressures whould that be positive for dollar?

2. If the economy shows no weakness then feds might continue the rate hikes. Now Rate increases due to a positive economy is definately positive for $$. But in this case we still have the problem of huge deficits? So will the $ react positively or will it ignore rate hikes?

will be great to have some thoughts on this!

Dallas GEP 19:36 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
You might be surprised TY

Spotforex NY 19:36 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Let me look at my blotter......

euro 1.3250/70 area are the obvious ones.....

SanFrancisco TG 19:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I was quite surprised at the lack of euro buying since NY yesterday but fortunately do not trade on expectations. A reminder that technical "exhaustion" is in the eye of the market, not the beholder. Used to have a guy in a private firm a while back who traded on expectations and did very well temporarily. Then .. poof, and no adherence to risk management policy compounded the losses. Best to trade on a combination of fundamental understanding but dictated by responsible market timing/money management.

LA Ty 19:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
man, market seems dead till Monday. Guess everyone else has gone hey?

Memphis Charles 19:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot, where do you think the Jubbs stops are located at the moment?

Memphis Charles 19:31 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Consider it tuition...

Amazon has a nice feature allowing you to search the table of contents of a lot of books. Block some time and do a thorough search. Many of these books are available used as well.

Cheers.

Spotforex NY 19:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I am waiting for the "Memoirs of my trading decision by Nigel Jubb"


Wien GD 19:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles ... probably there are about 10000 - that's the problem!

Memphis Charles 19:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
There are lots of books available related to the economics of foreign exchange. Do a search on Amazon.

LA Ty 19:07 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
What about "Investing For Dummies" ? Has some good things in there. Mayeb not so much correlation, but still some good info.

Wien GD 18:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles ... thx

Memphis Charles 18:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Marcia Stigum's The Money Market touches on it a bit, but not as thoroughly as one would like.

Spotforex NY 18:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
No - I do not know of any books about the inter dependancies of markets.......If the forum knows of a few, please post them in the HELP forum.

KL KL 18:43 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ok, out everything...hava a good w'end, good stuff this week. Today turned out to be a fizzer. Fix for US deficit is to raise rates....so maybe more of this week trading next week...imo i hope

Wien GD 18:41 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY ... do you know a book regarding these topics:
treasuries - bonds - trade balance - stock market - gold ... the explanation of their relations and dependences?

Spotforex NY 18:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
wien,

The concept is so complex for the typical trader and timing when it will affect the currencies.....

Overall US budget deficit has had the most impact this past 18 months...New Fiscal year just started in Oct for the US, so comparision yr/yr should provide some light......

But it is the 'flow of funds' that is more important in the wake of these deficits.....funded deficits will aid the dollar, but the market is looking for clues that Fgn entities will no longer subsidize the US spending habits.....

LA Ty 18:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
i closed my trade , -9.. dont trust it.

Wien GD 18:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY ... thought so. but was wondering why their was no discussion about that ...
Which one is more important ... the trade or treasury budget/deficit?

LA Ty 18:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Communist? lol

LA Ty 18:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I see a couple hammers on 5 minute chart. Maybe its gonna reverse lol

Treblinka Vladimir 18:23 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Van JV

I am glad to see a fellow communist here.

Spotforex NY 18:21 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
yes wein,

This dollar story has been a deficit story......US budget will be important .

LA Ty 18:20 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Stifle?

btw I sold GBP @ 9134 to test. 20 s/l. Let's see what takes place.

Wien GD 18:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Folks ... would you agree that the treasury budget will give the markets a kick ... due at 2:00?!

Langly VA enforcer 18:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 18:08 GMT

STIFLE!

LA Ty 18:08 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
everyone is biding their time here mate in the last few minutes while we wait mate..relax. scroll down and youll see lots of other chat by all members.

LA Ty 18:07 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
oh !?

Van jv 18:07 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
seems that some of us treat this Forum as a chatline...which may be only occasionally ok--it may be a nuisance

LA Ty 18:05 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
we're still hovering @ 3230 here EUR. yawn

Cape Town 17:59 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The mighty, mighty ZAR seems to continue leaving everything else in its dust this year.

Dallas GEP 17:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I am speaking in terms of possibilities NOT probabilities RE: the possible gap down on the Euro. It probably WON'T gap down that much but it certainnly is posisble based on the DAILY chart. It is one of those things where you have to plan for the worst while still expecting the best.

Bne Cad (bounbough) 17:49 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
At this time yesterday 10 min from now, cable squared North 100 pips. If nothing happens in the next 15 min i'm off to bed Zzzzzzzz.

Chicago YM 17:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GEP, what makes you think euro will gap down that much?

Atlanta-South 17:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep You just confimed what I know I should do. Will close & rest better over the weekend. Again, THANKS for your valued thoughts & advice. GL GT.

LA Ty 17:41 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I keep forgetting to set my dealer station so that it sends a SMS price alert to my mobile phone (incase I'm sleeping or something). Do any of you have alerts like this in your software?

Dallas GEP 17:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I would not hold a euro possie open over the weekend!!! I beleive Euro May even gap 100-150 pips DOWN over the weekend but even if you are SHORT I would close because the risk is just too high IMO.

Makassar Alimin 17:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
would be interesting to see if euro can go beyond 1.3250, my range for this us session has been 1.3150 to 1.3250

LA Ty 17:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
i hate the word C E N S O R E D

LA Ty 17:37 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
censored, I'm trying to place two SLOW STACHS in ONE channel (overlapping) and my dealer station won't let me. It only puts one ontop of the other. Hmmmm

LA Ty 17:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
5th element was great.... those space age flight attendants were censored fine

Hong Kong Qindex 17:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Hang Seng Index : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my  page.

Atlanta-South 17:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep Should I close that long EUR/USD I just mentioned. I think I know what to do, just seeking a more experienced traders view. I would like to see if a new high could be tested by Monday, but seems to risky to hold. What is a reasonable hight to be expected. Thanks & sorry to ask so much.

LA Ty 17:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
eenie meenie miny moo

LA Ty 17:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
do we see EUR going long now here now ..... Hmmmmm

LA Ty 17:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
anyone be willing to share their SAR values on a 15 minute chart? How about .02 + .2 ?

LA Ty 17:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Think that range is definitely possible. Either direction actually has a range of 100 pips.

Dallas GEP 17:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ok Corbin Dallas was the chraracter Bruce Willis played in the FIFTH ELEMENT. Pretty good SCI FI flick. I liked the part about how to NEGOTIATE!!!! LOL

LA Ty 17:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Thats what happens when the bed and Discovery Channel are right beside the trading desk lol

Dallas GEP 17:23 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Ok that 1.3150 to 1.3250 range that was mentioned on EUR seems to be pretty accurate. I would even say that 1.3140 - 1.3240 is perhaps the trading range for now.

knoxville dan-k 17:23 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
what we really need is LeLu -- supreme being !!!

knoxville dan-k 17:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
corbin dallas is already aboard

LA Ty 17:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
2 days in a row.. it was calm like this so I went to lie down and fell asleep and woke up to big surprises and missed opportunity to play the zero-sum game. I will not do that again today LOL

LA Ty 17:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Corbin Dallas

LA Ty 17:18 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
are you spamming Dallas? lol I saw that already :)

Dallas Mauricio 17:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Late posting. I have decided to concentrate on the first 3 hours of the London session to trade Cable & pretty much not trading the New York session as I have been making $ in London & giving back in New York.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT December 10, 2004
TY, my analysis is typical US session choppiness!!! You have to be VERY VERY quick for US. I THINK 1.3230 will hold.



Halifax CB 17:11 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot, you forgot to include "Survivor" in your line-up, with a cast of the entire Republican Guard, with George the Iraqi Minister if Defense as host. And how about a new version of "The Fugitive", where OldSlimey Bin Hidin' gets to play both the Fugitive & the One Armed Man at the same time?

Tallinn viies 17:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I think we havnt seen it all yet.
waiting for the close over 1,3275....
we may see it or else weekly charts may turn very ugly

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
As we close down for the day this week reminds me of the star wars movie The Empire Strikes Back (The Bears Strike Back) for the eur/usd pair. Over all sentiment is bearish on this pair even if this intraday bullish bounce is not through yet. This is only a correction at this time and a well need it one too. I believe next week will show us how deep of a correction it will become IMHO. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. GL GT

Sing GD 17:06 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Last post before some shut eye ..

MACD on EUR and GBP starting to show prelim buy signals ..
Could be a right old bear/bull battle in the US session around the 1.3230 handle .. GL all ... sq and see you Monday

Atlanta-South 17:04 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep OK thanks for that. What about 1.3500, is that out for near term. Seems this could be consolidation for another run up. If the longer term view is up, is that view as strong as last weeks view? I'm long from 1.3202 @ this time. Is it time to close or hold for say 1.3300 or higher. Charts saying to me down in near term. Thanks.

Spotforex NY 17:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Hi FF

Time to post some classic 'spots' since it will slow down as the year end approaches.....

Here is a classic

'Spotforex NY 20:30 GMT February 7, 2003
well I am done for the week....I just setup my new dish for the TV....The Iraqi channels seems to be ready to win the February ratings sweep....enclosed below

> IRAQI TV GUIDE
> > ------------------------------------
> >
> > SUNDAY:
> > 8:00 - My 33 Sons
> > 8:30 - Osama Knows Best
> > 9:30 - Let's Mecca Deal
> > 10:00 - The Kabul Hillbillies
> >
> > MONDAY:
> > 8:00 - Husseinfeld
> > 9:00 - Mad About Everything
> > 9:30 - Monday Night Stoning
> > 10:00 - Win Bin Laden's Money
> >
> > TUESDAY:
> > 8:00 - Wheel of Terror
> > 8:30 - The Price is Right if Osama Says it's Right
> > 9:00 - Children are Forbidden from Saying the Darndest Things
9:30
> > - Taliban's Wackiest Public Execution Bloopers 10:00 - Buffy the
> > Yankee Slayer
> >
> > WEDNESDAY:
> > 8:00 - Beat the Press
> > 8:30 - When Kurds Attack
> > 9:00 - Two Guys, a Girl, and Pita Bread
> > 9:30 - Just Shoot Everyone
> > 10:00 - Veilwatch
> >
> > THURSDAY:
> > 8:00 - Fatima Loves Chachi
> > 8:30 - M*U*S*T*A*S*H
> > 9:00 - Veronica's Closet Full of Long, Black, Shapeless Dresses
and
> >
> > Veils 9:30 - Married with 139 Children
> > 10:00 - Eye for an Eye Witness News
> >
> > FRIDAY:
> > 8:00 - Judge Saddam
> > 8:30 - Suddenly Sanctions
> > 9:00 - Who Wants to Marry a Terrorist Millionaire?
> > 9:30 - Cave and Garden Television
> > 10:00 - No-Witness News
> >
> > SATURDAY:
> > 8:00 - Sponge Bob Square Turban
> > 9:00 - Teletalibans
> > 9:30 - Camel 54, Where Are You?

Halifax CB 17:00 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
BNE CAD - Never say never, especially on a Friday. Lot's of squaring yet to do (But I agree re. the uptrend...)

Hong Kong Qindex 16:59 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dow Jones Index : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LA Ty 16:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
your EMA theory also works on a 15 minute chart with a 100 EMA...

LA Ty 16:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ICT > "THe nice thing is you have a good idea where to put a stop."

How so?

Bne Cad (bounbough) 16:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
CAD 8th hourly candle chart: Minus the tails, have you ever seen a more perfect ascending triangle? Its perfect! If the triangle holds true, 1.2250 will not be seen again.
Good night.

Atl TJ 16:53 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 16:47 GMT December 10, 2004

Also the slow Stoch are in O/B or O/S Zone. Will probably let it go for the reason ML mentioned.

LA Ty 16:49 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
3230 is also previous strong support so might wanna wait until it breaks strong.

Helsinki iw 16:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Most of todays price action is probably seen already. A point of interest may be the closing level as below 1,3225 would mean a weekly key reversal. Personally still like the dollar for now. Nice w/e all.

ICT ML 16:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The USD pairs have all found their ways to the 30 min EMA 50 at the same time. This EMA is a good area to enter fresh long U$D trades if it holds the pull back. THe nice thing is you have a good idea where to put a stop.

We'll probably pass until Sunday though as Friday close is coming fast and the market gets strange sometimes with poor liquidity.

knoxville dan-k 16:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
sar on 5 and 15 crossing now caution if short imho

LA Ty 16:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
here we go boys and girls

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Actually Atlanta Euro/USD looks to visit 3250/60 Soon and then back down short

knoxville dan-k 16:37 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
jcr, im watching the usd/jpy on the 5min/15min/30min i have no sar signal yet, keep your stops tho imho

LA Ty 16:31 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
what is "short term O/B territory"? over bought?

orlando jcr 16:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Anyone watching $/Y...
Does it look like turn up here or close....
I would have thought good news from Michigan would have done more to support

Athens 16:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
From this morning:
Athens 10:55 GMT December 10, 2004
...Here we are then, a USD recovery but some caution is needed now as the Dollar has or is reaching short term O/B territory and some retracements cannot be ruled out. Have a good weekend.

Atlanta-South 16:21 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin: Thanks for the reply. I read the same, but never hurts to have someone else to verify. Have GREAT weekend.

HK Kevin 16:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 16:01 GMT, if my chart reading not wrong, EUR/$ may consolidate around 1.3150 and 1.3250 for 1or 2 day, then test again 1.3320/50 before further downmove. Range trade around 1.3150 and 1.3250 may work for some time

Hong Kong Qindex 16:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Nikkei-225 (NK, CME) : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Atlanta-South 16:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep: If EUR/USD closes above 1.3230 what do you see for next week? Could 1.3250-60 be visited again. Seems to be BULLISH again. Thanks for reply.

HK Kevin 15:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Closed all my short USD/JPY from 106.10 at 105.36. Let's how EUR/JPY work out .

HK Kevin 15:36 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
It's a purely technical market. Charts back to work.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
TY, my analysis is typical US session choppiness!!! You have to be VERY VERY quick for US. I THINK 1.3230 will hold.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
A close under the 3220-30 area will go a long way for the eur/usd bears today IMO.

B.A. BOCA 15:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
good day all....usd/cad painting a double top at 2330s.

could be significant for s/t-m/t direction.

Quebec Swap 15:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
All these S/R levels have some gravitational pull to them, they attract price to them and then it becomes toss up on where it can go.

Syd A 15:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Agreed 1.3255/60 area important for EUR-USD with clear break to open up 1.3340/60 - but while below there the broader outlook remains weak with the weekly candle for this week set to become the first black candle for 12-weeks.

----
FREE "FX-Risk Calculator" available from >> www.ForexFlows.com
----

houston st 15:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

SWAP -- sorry to hear that...I was hoping eur$ wouldn't challenge the 1.3190 level but they spanked it good overnight...players are trying to take it higher but $ seems to have the upper hand for now...gl/gt.

Dallas GEP 15:16 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE @ 7498

Quebec Swap 15:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd will probably come around 1.3260 area because a lot of stops are there for those that went short.

by the way, I've posted that I was long Eur/Usd and I still am, but I got destroyed somewhat already, I'm just trying to minimize losses now.

Sing GD 15:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Key Area EURUSD being tested now FWIW .. 1.3230 hold key to higher or lower on weekly close ... IMVHO

LA Ty 15:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS, I agree however, how would one sumize that it would fall again and not continue up? What analysis ?

mysore forexveda 15:11 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Typical Friday market. Won't be surprised if euro breaks the day high. Closed my 1.3160 buy at 1.3220.

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
YEs, NYK, I think it is POSSIBLE.

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
1.3230 is the level to short on EURO according to the DAILY charts

Sofia NYK 15:08 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Closed all the GBP for today!!!

Tallinn viies 14:57 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
good day all,
after extremly nice profits from euryen decided to try eurusd again,
bought euros at 1,3179.
stop at 1,3129
fwiw

Sofia NYK 14:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Gep// Are you still looking for a move to 3120.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Michigan Sentiment Improved to 95.7. We shall see how the market reacts to this piece of data.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
FWIW eur/jpy is on its marry way looking for the next resistance to eat up IMO.
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:54 GMT December 7, 2004
FWIW eur/jpy has broken the asymmetric bullish triangle formed over the 1 past years and most important has finally closed above it (137.00-10). Next resistance here will be met around the 139.00-10, 140.20-30 and the top for 2003 140.90-141. Main target for this pair in the long run will be around the 153.80-90 area.

Halifax CB 14:42 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I've tried using the same analysis of convergence on the current USD cad values - starting with the low values off the 15 minute charts (121.28,121.86,122.33), they gave the following:122.7, 123.01,123.2698,123.47,123.63,123.77,123.8780,123.96 (with successively closer points, ending at 124.35 or so). That point just means the theoretical validity of the model ends there.; and FWIW, though it got the 1.227 level bang on, it is significantly off right now., unless USDCAD oscillates around 1.23 for awhile. And sh**, forgot about the survey out soon. Interesting :)

perrie como 14:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
there's another round on up for eur/jpy

do not know if will impact usd/jpy or eur/usd on up
maybe both maybe just one of them

but theres some 30-40 pips to catch in such a machanical game

melbourne farmacia 14:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
KL - yeah great run this week. The old pound is back..
Working Gbp both sides. Interesting set up developing.. if my indicators read correctly.. will evaluate next week.
No flooding around, just few thunder storms challenging my techo ports. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Gold is reacting too as one of the supports hits and bounces from that area. Gold has good support right now around the 431.60-70 area if that goes than you can see a deeper correction IMO. Next up is in the 423 area but my numbers change every day so it will be a different support by next week IMHO. GL GT

dc fxq 14:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 14:26

Nice talk

perrie como 14:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Just for your convenience

might be also Usd to be supported trough yen sellings

this will mean instead of a higher eur/usd gbp/usd and the other bunch of baskets

expectionally higher usd/jpy and eur/usd even below 1.31

as to print out that 140 on eur/jpy is seemingly an easy game now, but wd not bet on It if intraday trading

HK Kevin 14:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 14:14 GMT, agree with you. But I am short USD/JPY and it's Fri. Dont' like to take too much position.

NewYork frankie 14:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Hey Oskar,
When I', wrong I admit it. I use stops as well. So go suck an egg mate.

perrie como 14:21 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
sorry
ref eur/sud....read pls

if yen selling trough nyc sessions wd support eur/usd trough eur/jpy (instead of eur/sud)

PS
might be I was thing to the LATAM dollar ("SUD souther united dollar " yet to born next decade most probably :)

g/l anyway

perrie como 14:18 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Yes overseas frns...if yen selling steps into the nyc forex session, It might well support the eur/usd trough eur/sud most expecting above 140 today.

not sure will happen, as the move might be more extreme than expectatins if happens later on

tough games around, also big guys around suffering (some many hedge funds have also broke up)

oslo oskar 14:18 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
NewYork frankie 14:14 GMT December 10, 2004
The Euro is looking like a good buy here judged by the 8 hour channel. Support is at 1.3175. A long here targeting 1.3250 looks like a good risk reward!

NewYork frankie 19:49 GMT December 8, 2004
buying euro's here for a test for of recent highs in the next 2 days. It seems almost everyone has fallen for the old one -two regarding this false dollar correction. Stop at 1.3300

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
A typical Friday is shaping up in the Forex forum aka FF(FOOD FIGHT) as the bears are turning things around in the eur/usd pair (no more who let the bulls out song for this Friday). Although the sacrificing of the virgin traders is still alive and well. This bearish move is not over yet just taking a break as my daily indicators are finally seeing the light and turning bearish too. What once was support now look for it to be resistance at least that is what the pair is reacting to. Now that support retracement hit on the money we can concentrate on the next support level I have commented about. The aud/usd is following the bearish tone as it also tested the support on my earlier comments IMHO. GL GT

NewYork frankie 14:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The Euro is looking like a good buy here judged by the 8 hour channel. Support is at 1.3175. A long here targeting 1.3250 looks like a good risk reward!

perrie como 14:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
those long oil from yesterday better take half profits on todays closings or significat top level

the 1mio barrels cutted by Opec is so meaningful

just a political play to me for gaining some words around those roundtables

Global-View 14:08 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GV survey is conducted bi-weekly, next one comes out next week.

perrie como 14:06 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Let alone surveys...I do not believe in democracy on markets

Surabaya Medallion 14:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
When will the GVI has survey on the future of EUR and Yen perhaps at the end of March/June 2005? Thanks.

brussel jc 14:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
next week big chance /$ @ 1.3000 completing correction and a good buy opportunity

Sofia NYK 14:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GEP// You have said in your post " will print" !!!

HK Kevin 14:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 13:58 GMT, still busy in your bloody work.

perrie como 14:00 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Might well be this long friday closing will be focused more on the yen side....other games on majors (exept some crosses) are mostly done...

might be the dollar might strenght up into late closing too.....

btw as said is a long term game more than intraday suggested levels which were all broken, from what I see around

g/l

Dallas GEP 13:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
NYK, NEVER say never. I said it COULD happen

hk ab 13:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Gecko// Congratulations on the 2nd streak m/t prediction.

Sofia NYK 13:57 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Gep ?? think today it will never happen!!!

Dallas GEP 13:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
KAN, YES I do think 1.3120 will print today.

prague viktor 13:53 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
pakistan sajid ...oh man ur the forex God(if that is true)

HK Kevin 13:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY is capped under 50-day ma in the daily chart. Stll hold some short from 106.10.

Helsinki iw 13:51 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Cool trading there sajid, wheres your target?

pakistan sajid 13:50 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
even kl cant tell a big lie than mee
hahahaha

pakistan sajid 13:49 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
i was long cable from 1.4126 closed it at 1.9510 and shorted cable at 1.9510 now sleeping for year or 2

Dallas GEP 13:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
OK 20 period MA on EURO is 1.3213 so stop readjusted now to 1.3223

Boca Raton 13:44 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Au contraire, same old BS from you. I will hand it to you, at least you are consistant.

KL KL 13:43 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
out of my gbpusd short at 69 +16...forgot one more figure to be released later....so I expect some USD weakness now till consumer sentiment that can give those dollar bears a nice whack!!!...imho of course

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Raton, same old BS from you as usual. Keep up the constructive posts/ LOL!!!!

BTW stop on euro short is at BE

knoxville dan-k 13:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
well im longing the shorts and shorting the longs at this rate ill go back to bed soon

sg kan 13:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,

Do you think euro is still going to print 1.3120 today?

Boca Raton 13:37 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, why not post 1.3220? May as well.

Dallas GEP 13:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
TOO quick!!!

Dallas GEP 13:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURo @ 1.3212

Sofia NYK 13:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I should add to my GBP lower, if the US data turns better!

KL KL 13:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, top of the night ...must be flooded where you are. What's the story...still longing the pound? Any possie still open...this run rather fast too. 300 pips run rather common these days!! I smell some change coming...just smell...LOL..gl gt..btw what is your fibo that you have??TIA

Dallas GEP 13:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
YEP RT, I do believe in it.

Sofia NYK 13:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw// Thank you for your suggestions.

melbourne farmacia 13:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 05:14 GMT December 10, 2004
Missed your Question.. Still in corrective phase, buying off fibs seem ideal intraday play for now 1.9018 / 1.8900 & selling into down channel lines..etc.. GT

Warsaw mach 13:10 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Today we will have Monthly Budget Statement in US at 1900GMT so I expect to see some Eurusd buying on US sesion and I'm afraid we won't see weekly close below 1,3220. Remember also about US Trade Balance on Monday.

That's my view although I'd like to see eurusd going lower.

KL KL 13:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I am in short gbpusd 1.9085 ...hopefully this one will run down this time. sl is 12 above....Oil up, gold down its Friday and I don't like the current position of all the charts...so tight sl is the way to go.

Halifax CB 13:05 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LOL - re my last post; just checked the calendar, 13:30 is the time of the PPI releases. Good idea to stay out of USD trades until that's decided. GL...

Sing GD 13:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Key to EURUSD cross is 1.3230 , last week and most of this week , huge support , weekly close (NY Time around 5pm EST) below 1.3230 would be bearish - well known out there - FWIW ...GL all

NJ RT 13:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Yeah too tight ..... but ...still believe on the short ?

Halifax CB 12:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
USDCAD - nice trend line forming from 21:30 GMT on the 8th.
On the trendline, using the 15 minute chart (which is moderately inaccurate for calculating these things), a shanks transform gives the next low as occuring around 9:30 eastern, i.e 13:30 GMT. If the trendline holds, then I'll look for entry point. But I'm getting very conflicting results re the possibility of a significant regime break (e.g. a big break one way or another), so I'll just keep it as a trending long. GL/GT

sg kan 12:56 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
Do you think the trend is reversing now for euro long. Kindly advise. Thanks

Makassar Alimin 12:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
us session range for me today is euro 1.3150-1.3250, will try to trade with range, stops outside those range and if hit that means flat till i see the range again

Dallas GEP 12:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well got my stop 1.3207 . Little too tight probably. Oh well. Plenty of OPPS today tho. data out 7:30

Sofia NYK 12:51 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LDN// Agree with you!

Paris MAXX 12:51 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I went long Euro/$ @ 1.3200 earlier fwiw...

Sofia NYK 12:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Closed part long GBP--40 pips!

Dallas GEP 12:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy 105.70 stop 105.40

Dallas GEP 12:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
YEP still short EURO

Ldn 12:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The recent volatile moves in cable suggest a more two-sided bias, potential for a test of 1.90-1.89 pullbacks should be viewed as a buying opportunity for the next leg toward 2.00. Now at 1.9050.
JP Morgan

NJ RT 12:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP still on for short eur/usd ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
check what will happen to chf/yen from the same high 91.22

Makassar Alimin 12:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
last few days, dollar buying has been happening from asian session till mid london session, during us session though dollar selling is the theme, let's see if that is going to happen today as well, remember too this is friday
good luck

knoxville dan-k 12:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
its not the moonshine!! its the olives!!! fer sure

Sofia NYK 12:11 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
KL forget 1.9070 even after good US data at 13.30 GMT.

gold coast martin 12:10 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 12:03 GMT December 10, 2004
lol.....moonshine does strange things dan/k.....g/t

KL KL 12:06 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well well well...my ton of $$$ is waiting to either short usdjpy or long gbpusd much much further than what I see now. For usdjpy perhaps around 106.50 and gbpusd 1.8850...maybe euro to0 at 1.3020...and gold at 425-28. Today is Extremist day in trading so watch for roller coster come the Yankee time...flat now...but still playing the gbpusd long short around 1.9020-1.9070.....collect, collect...still Christmas for me...maybe music may stop dead on its track today or monday...Make no mistake risk is still on the long side for those against USD....all currency have come a long way and forgot where home is....this is the fear that creates the trading conditions I like...US Data out in 1.5 hours....still can play the pips...gl gt all...how can I sleep on nights like this!!!

knoxville dan-k 12:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
well if i would have heard the piggy squeel last night i would have called the vet right away and put him down!! but guess the stop loss did that was short at 105.25 stop at 105.50 lol -25 pips 2 lots that little piggy was playing with matches around the fireworks lit the wrong candle

Dallas GEP 11:59 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
KAN, SL on Eur/USD is 1.3207

Sofia NYK 11:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dan-k// dont you think you need clinic?

LA Ty 11:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ah ic.. thanks for info...

knoxville dan-k 11:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
yea what i thought last night,
this little piggy went to market,
this little piggy stayed home,
this little piggy went we we we, as he go shot to the moon!!

gold coast martin 11:50 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 11:45 GMT December 10, 2004
SYD> the daily chart looks like a retracement heading North is due then a slide back down , dont you think ?

The last 3 candles are 3 bears.

...lol..The fourth one may be goldilocks....be careful.....seriously,technicals when funds are exiting and squaring such as in december, may not give you a complete trading picture on which to form trading decisions.....pay a little more to fundamentals....g/t

LA Ty 11:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
has to retrace first...and then we'll see what New York has in store for it :P

LA Ty 11:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
SYD> the daily chart looks like a retracement heading North is due then a slide back down , dont you think ?

The last 3 candles are 3 bears.

Sofia NYK 11:42 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
20 pips already!!!

knoxville dan-k 11:42 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
WOW!! went to bed riding a choo choo train on the usd/jpy short 2 lots, with stop loss at -20 the train swapped tracks looks like its climbing the rocky mtns.

Sofia NYK 11:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Buy GBP now as much as you can!!!

sg kan 11:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
What is your sl on the eur short. TIA

LA Ty 11:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
doesnt that spammer realize that no one listens to him in here? I mean, get real. Like I would let someone manage my fx acct.

LA Ty 11:31 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
whats the difference in the FREE version to paid version of the money management software?

kolkata 11:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
hallo

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Sofia NYK 11:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Seems to me quiet intervention is carried on!!!

Malaga boqueron 11:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Not sure about EUUS and USJY, but sure does look like EUJY is going to hit 140 very soon. A clear break should signal a strong move up before end of year.

EU ZORRO 11:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

....BTW...Hat's off to Van Gecko....!!!!

...I will try to replace half of my long EUROS here.....

...IMO...below 1,30 it's a bargain for next year...

Syd A 11:20 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR-USD - Obviously, the week isn't quite over yet, but the weekly candle for this week looks very nasty - and - this looks like being the first black weekly candle for 12-weeks. There's an awful lot stacked against this puppy. Attempts to bounce likely to struggle in the 1.3225/50 region with lift above 1.3340/60 needed to seriously bring the 1.3470 peak back into view.

----
FREE - "FX-Risk Calculator" available from >> www.ForexFlows.com
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Haifa ac 11:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 11:13 GMT //Ooops!

Sofia NYK 11:18 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR will end at 1.32 level today. GBP --above 1.91.

EU ZORRO 11:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Morning all....

...Haifa ac 10:57....That Dip was for EURJPY...!!!!...Do you catch it?

...and...I'm buying EUROS here....!!!!

ICT ML 11:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
noticing that $CAD which lead this $$$ comeback, has failed to break its previous spike high.......maybe that will change soon. If not, I start to think abuot what ATHENS pointed out and maybe not get too greedy with the U$D buying from here on out.....

Dallas GEP 11:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
YES KAN, Euro should print 1.3120 IMO Today or LOWER

gold coast martin 11:06 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 03:54 GMT December 1, 2004
Brisbane L 03:41 GMT December 1, 2004
fwiw...I have divided december into three phases:
december 1-9, aud target 74.90-75.85
december 10-17, aud target 75.50-73.85
december 18-22, aud target 73.50-71.85
post 23 december volatility to the down side will increase.....expecting sub-70 with ultimate long target of 62.....on 62 target have not determinedtimeframe yet....hopes this helps....g/t


gold coast martin

Above still applies....g/t to everyone....

sg kan 11:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Do you see euro falling further below 1.3150? any support level?

L.A. 11:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Athens 10:55 GMT is that with all currencies Dlr o.b tia

LA Ty 11:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
so you think because it hit 3150 the EURO will head back up ?

Haifa ac 10:57 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
MUST REPEAT A FEW van Gecko recent Pearls:

1.
van Gecko 10:02 GMT November 25, 2004
from a historical prespective, anytime the Dollar had penetrated Dollar Index 85-80 after a Long term down trend offers very good odd for a potential sharp long to medium term trend change..
on each of the past 4 L/T trend reversals, the Dollar climbed at least 1800 basis points over the subsequent L/M/T periods.. the 1995-2001 L/T up trend reversed near index 80..
in 1988 the Dollar reversed the 4000 basis point L/T downtrend after the '85 Plaza accord near index 85.. it is now at index 82 after declining 4000 basis points for the last 4 years..fwiw..
2.van Gecko 10:11 GMT November 26, 2004
sa.. a close below 1.3150 would suggest euro may had seen a blow-off top for the rest of the year.. so instead of the recent one way play from 1.25, December could turn out to be a nice & friendly Jingle Bell month with both camps ringing each other's X'mas bells between the ranges 1.33 <->1.29 -> 1.29<->1.25..
3.van Gecko 22:28 GMT December 1, 2004
"08:13 GMT October 15, 2004

"This is the end, Beautiful friend
This is the end, My only friend, the end
Of our elaborate plans, the end.."

getting close again friends...
enjoy "American bye" while it last..
4.van Gecko 09:39 GMT December 3, 2004
"08:27 GMT December 1, 2004
the little dollar setting up for a 2 figure blast to start the month.."

another blast up to 1.1630 to end the week with a bang..
should some of those DBB members start doing SAR.. 1.1830 is within max weekly ATR..
Cheerios..
5.Van jv 17:27 GMT December 6, 2004
EU ZORRO ///
How much dip is your dip?

Sic transit....

Dallas GEP 10:57 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more euro @ 1.3155

ICT ML 10:56 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Phooey 10:25 GMT December 10, 2004
I hear that...I need to put a more recent sample chart up, one thaqt is relevant to recent market activity anyway.......

Athens 10:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Last week I said here, even if the currencies post new highs this week (last week), prepare to kiss them good bye. Here we are then, a USD recovery but some caution is needed now as the Dollar has or is reaching short term O/B territory and some retracements cannot be ruled out. Have a good weekend.

prague jv 10:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
and what a nice christmas pressent from a market . Thank you very much . It is time to call it of and spend some time with family and doing some nice thinks .It has been plesure to meeting you here guys . Have safe one and Happy holidays .
JF , sapan and the rest , will see you next year .

Makassar Alimin 10:51 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 10:46 GMT December 10, 2004

maybe we should wait if 1.25 happens to be printed, like gecko said and it will be very interesting :)
i still hold the view of dollar bearish until 1.3080 euro is taken and hopefully that also corresponds to 1.8950 gbp
nk mentioned 1.17/1.18 usd/chf too, so expect a little bit more usd run and we will see from there

ICT ML 10:50 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Big question is if cable will stop at its daily EMA 20 here at 1.9025 or will it break it like all the other pairs have now.....

Maybe we see euro at 1.3050 soon? that wuold be fine with me ;-)

prague viktor 10:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
the euro is like a dust in the wind and the big Q after 200pips what we will see befor the 1,1488 or the 1,488..G/T G/L

Makassar Alimin 10:43 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
i think this is more brutal then what had been complained in the opposite direction, all those gains for weeks are erased in a matter of few days LOL

if 1.3150 euro also gone then back to drawing board

ICT ML 10:41 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well GEP truth is I've taken 12 trades in London so far and only one has been a loser of 4 pips...very unusual level activity for me, I usually don't take more than a dozen in a week...must have caught the "Need good bonus for Xmas bug"...Hahahaa

Ldn pm 10:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Stair Burns the big buyer of $/Jpy this morning, apparently.

sofia anmart fx 10:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY-201.82. We buy for 203.85.

perrie como 10:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
also this Usd/Jpy seems high enough, but can't exclude higher
if capable to stay above 106.25...but his would mean big players to be cought for stops too

big games behind here take care

okidoki now go

Makassar Alimin 10:36 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
1.3180 was opened as well, that's rather easy i would say, which means 100 pips lower from now could be the next minimal target

Dallas GEP 10:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Nice job ML !!! Got short off an order 3179 on EURO/USD (below previuos low)

Helsinki iw 10:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
como, thats why you need discretionary overlay.

LA Ty 10:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
if GBP or EUR slides even more Ill be very shocked...

ICT ML 10:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
wel I finally timed something dead on and sold crap load of aussie at 90..about time

Cape Town 10:31 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
'brutal moves" in the other direction obviously not a problem!

LA Ty 10:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP hit 9050.. its bottom..

LA Ty 10:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
where's the end guys?

Helsinki iw 10:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well the dollar is much stronger than I thought

LA Ty 10:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
i meant G F T.. holy cow! look at the EUR tumble and GBP

LA Ty 10:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
thanks ,I use censored censored.. best software Ive seen. SMS alerts to my phone if I'm sleeping and stuff like that. Thas cool that your website mentions it. On my end it is the furthest thing from being a hog.

Hong Kong Phooey 10:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML: Wow that looks like my parents stereo after I dissected it as a kid!

perrie como 10:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
No news prague - It's just I used to be a developr of a private system years ago and know that those for commercial use are used by big players to squeeze short termers

Helsinki iw...all long terms are clear (the difficulty stays in mangment), but It is strange enough that your 1.25 short ...for which there are several types of systems showing that short signal ranging 2-3 pct up or down (It deepence on the nature of the system itself) now has not showed the correction from 1.13....this is the trick of a commercial system

g/l

ICT ML 10:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LA Ty 10:12 GMT December 10, 2004
This is our technical setup and has been for a few years now. Works well for us.

Technical tools and indicators

perrie como 10:18 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
It is noose diving for the eur/usd since 1.3280/13245
yestarday that drags down the top on weeklies showing potential for sub 1.3 by next week...sizeable amounts in play...

some basic targets (for what targets are useful in such a market) are 1.3150 to 1.3100 at least....

short termers in such a markets are likely to be squeeezed several times

walk my dog

Helsinki iw 10:18 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
como, if your comment was directed to me, please note Im talking of a medium-term trend follower. Actually current position in USD/CHF is short since Oct 11 at 1,2502. I do not have access to any high-frequency trading system.

prague jv 10:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
como . It is exelent news . Can you pass on more info about comers. ??? tia

perrie como 10:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
guess those who follow a system that was wrong yesterday have better stay flat today....

else do not come here print in capital letters your concerns

tks

LA Ty 10:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
question: what SMA. EMA and WMA values do you usually use and for what time frame charts?

perrie como 10:10 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
most commercial systems are in loss now couple of days...

mysore forexveda 10:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Lon Jr you are right to some extent. But, whatever happens in the market is under Federal banks knowledge and control. They may not intervene in day today's market. but euro's 5000 pips upmove is deffineely orchestrated by the US Govt and FB. Thats what I feel. Is dollar really weak now? euro (synthetic) was above 1.3750 in 1995 and yen was at 80. Comapred to those prices dollar is still strong

Gen dk 10:07 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

perrie como 10:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
tks tanigaki

Helsinki iw 10:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The 21day moving average seems to have held for now. Probably some ranging until NY, but the dollar is still on the move. A medium-term trendfollowing model I know of, will buy USD/CHF today if it trades above 1,1560 at 13:15 GMT. I expect other similar type models to be active around the same timeframe and levels, so there could be a market impact.
USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD have turned previously in the week, it is still short USD ag EUR and GBP with turning levels slightly off still. fwiw.

Makassar Alimin 10:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
lon jr 09:56 GMT December 10, 2004

turn the caps off mate, two reasons:
1. i am not blind
2. that implies shouting or being aggresive

HK 09:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Please do not yell.

perrie como 09:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
eur.usd special ready to print out 1.31 later on.....good luck

lon jr 09:56 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
SO YOU ARE SAYING US WILL INTERVENE WITH DOLL PURCHASES IF THEY ARE NOT HAPPY...DONT THINK THEY WILL..THEY CANNOT RUN THE ROOST..ALL I WAS SUGGESTING WAS THE DOLL IS STILL WEAK AT 103-106 EURO 127-35...THE ONLY THING WHICH HAS MOVED DOLL DOWN IS RESERVE SWITCHING...ITS IN THE INTERESTS OF CBK'S TO PUCHASE GRADUALLY, AND NOT IN THIER INTEREST TO SEE DOLL COLLAPSE, THESE SWITCHES CAN BE DONE OVER YEARS.....

Antwerp Tom 09:56 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Ty 9:46 too early to say imo, reaction here less forceful than two days ago where it bounced back to 1.3250 in no time

Dallas Mauricio 09:53 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I caught it too. Calling it a week as I like to go out on a good note. I've been giving back my profits lately & I am determined to break this habit.

Atl TJ 09:40 GMT December 10, 2004
Dallas Mauricio 09:32 GMT December 10, 2004
I caught that one. I have been having a hard time timing thsees trades over the last couple of days. Too many volatile moves and counter moves for my comfort zone.


mysore forexveda 09:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Lon Jr If BOJ doesnt protect 100 level, we may be seeing Yen fall below 100. If this happens along with euro 1000 pips correction, US will not be unhappy as dollar gains againt all other currencies. GBP/JPY is due for a 300 pips fall and that shoudl come from dollar/yen IMHO. I am going long euro at 1.3160.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
These levels / Trend are for day Trading while having Over bought / Over sold not to allow the the trade to happen (i.e Hold)
so if say sell or Buy and Level is reached...it should make a return...Might say why not euro or Cable...(Simply over bought)...> Not normal Variation for day trading

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3457 1.3156 Hold Hold
USDJPY 105.7412 103.5687 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9424 1.9058 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1638 1.1363 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5384 1.5226 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7652 0.7444 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2329 1.2117 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7190 0.6991 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6975 0.6849 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.5105 137.0318 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.5912 199.2207 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.8996 89.6048 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2363 2.1919 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7847 1.7363 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6444 1.6068 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9327 0.9099 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 82.1783 76.2480 Sell Buy

Bkk bounbough 09:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
According to weekly candles, this little geese party rocks on until 1.26 (with momma morning star to back them up).

LA Ty 09:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I think EUR has bottomed @ 3190 and GBP @ 9050

LA Ty 09:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
might squeeze a few tiny pips in but otherwise, looks like bottom no? time to buy? or do u you think a MASSIVE slide is in place?

LA Ty 09:44 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP and EUR just bottomed out

Bkk bounbough 09:43 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
CAD hourly: That little buying climax was so strong, it make a 5 pip gap. (between 1.2265 and 1.2270). Fly geese fly!

Atl TJ 09:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 09:32 GMT December 10, 2004
I caught that one. I have been having a hard time timing thsees trades over the last couple of days. Too many volatile moves and counter moves for my comfort zone.

Bkk bounbough 09:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
and being the greedy beast cable is, she'll drop to daily support 1.8945-55 for a stop feast before slinging back to 1.90
GN

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
CAd shorting at 1.2328

Antwerp Tom 09:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
/$ longs, including myself until half an hour ago, fasten your seatbelts, we're heading much lower imho GL GT

Bkk bounbough 09:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Fxnew: imho it would be 'better' to long cable at 1.9090 minor support, and even then, its not safe as that support is just going now as i am typing this so perhaps 1.90 would be a better level. (Psychological support at that level as well).

Dallas Mauricio 09:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Cable also rejected 1.9151 high which makes me believe that a new low is more probable.

Atl TJ 09:09 GMT December 10, 2004
Well, Cable obviously rejected the idea of make a new daily low. Anyone think it might go the other way and challenge the daily high? Crap, it's hard to trade 40+ pip moves over 5 minutes

Bne Cad (bounbough) 09:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys, get a load of the CAD 8th hourly chart. Is that a beautiful ascending triangle or what! seems we ought to be zooming to 1.24 in no time. and the geese go 'squark' 'squark'. Happy Trades.

Sydney ACC 09:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Watch out, the market may be setting itself up for classic buy the rumour sell the fact over Fed tightening.
Could we be seeing a firm dollar leading into next week's decision with reversal of the trend thereafter.

Atl TJ 09:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well, Cable obviously rejected the idea of make a new daily low. Anyone think it might go the other way and challenge the daily high? Crap, it's hard to trade 40+ pip moves over 5 minutes.

Makassar Alimin 08:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I personally think euro is at the crossroad, looking at the daily chart I want to short it to 1.30 handle at least, but going long is not a bad choice either with 20 EMA contains it well now (going long with stop under the MA especially if daily close below the MA), at some point i think it will retrace to 1.30 handle but it won't take the simple route IMHO

Other than charts, I think picture is less clear as well. I know dollar has its own problem but other major currencies also have more or less similar economic problem. Besides, all the negative news about dollar so far is already priced in well, we need something fresh to determine next direction. Maybe we will range for months again to see who wins the tug of war in the end.

Syd A 08:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
USD-JPY - Room for modest dip before extending bounce toward 106.75-107.30 zone.

EUR-USD - Significant downside risks. Won't be impressed by bounce attempts while remaining below 1.3360/90.
----
FREE - "FX-Risk Calculator" available from >> www.ForexFlows.com
----

LA Fxnew 08:46 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
long cable .. target 9320..

Dallas Mauricio 08:37 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Good Trading Day everyone.

Ldn 08:36 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The market has viewed USD rallies as opportunities to add to shorts, suggesting that any positive dollar reponses to Fri's US PPI and Michigan data may be short-lived. Given perceived policymaker comfort with the weaker greenback, it may be difficult for it to extend gains
BarCap

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
As the bears try to make their move it does not come easy for them. The key support for eur/usd still stands and support 3220-30 has been a good barrier this time around for the bears. Well here are my numbers for this pair better late then never.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3250-3280, 3300-20, 3350-60, 3380-3400, 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3400-30 and 3370-80 Support T/L 3020-30.
Support is around the 3210-30, 3170-80 and 3040-60 for now key support is around the 3170-80 area IMHO. GL GT

gold coast martin 08:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Sammy ...lol....i can do with some humor during this flat period....post some trades so we can all see how proficient you are..

la fx 08:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
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Makassar Alimin 08:11 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
for gbp i favour trading below 1.91 first and try some long there, only direct break into 1.89 handle (1.8950ish) i would then consider bearish

Makassar Alimin 08:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
since the plug at euro 1.3250 is open now, i favour the downside first, looks like we have some defending at 1.3220, but i expect 1.3180/1.32 to be tested again

overall just got the feeling the range going into next week will become narrower, coiling up for deficit data

lon jr 07:56 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
i READ UR COMMENTS FOREXVEDA..HOWEVER, RESERVE SWITCHING CAN TAKE PLACE OVER MANY YEARS..ITS IN CBKS INTEREST TO DO THAT...ALSO SHRODER IN JAPAN...HEH ITS NOT THAT EASY...THE STATES CANNOT HAVE IT THEIR WAY, ALSO MASIVE JAPAN TRADE SURPLUSES..AND WEAK YEN? MANIPULATED? YES...SO LETS FACE IT THE US HAVE HAD THIER RIDE FROM 120 PLUS, ENUF IS ENUF..THOUGHT J

mysore forexveda 07:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Only reason to call euro buy today at 1.3160 is 'today is friday' and 'all fridays are euro days' In last few months everytime euro fell, it bounced back on fridays and many times it broke day high in US session. Just an obeservation. Technically speaking, I expect all currencies to consolidate and start moving higher during month end. My expected target is 1.3720/50

Ldn 07:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Talk end of the year buying of cable by companies on the 31st December could give it a lift

KL KL 07:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
jcr....must be smiling your way to bed...eh..maybe floating...LOL...why so soon...just getting exciting now?? Simple isn't it...little pips make a mountain of pips...Well done and be aware this style may not work next week ....maybe faster..like Charlie Chaplin...LOL

Syd 07:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Emailed from a trader in NY .. put it in the financial forum too long for here
DJ FOCUS: Central Banks Find 50 Ways To Leave The Dollar

When Russia added its name to the list of dollar-wary central banks Wednesday, it highlighted a range of reasons why the greenback is getting a bashing from its former friends.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dear Traders
I think this chi squared Test for variance...might be of some importance...if the Number is higher then 95% or below 5%...might have strong suprise
anything can happen

Currency chi Test Trend
EURUSD 58.6%
USDJPY 0.0%
GBPUSD 62.1%
USDCHF 0.6%
EURCHF 17.9%
AUDUSD 79.8%
USDCAD 0.0%
NZDUSD 79.7%
EURGBP 58.4%
EURJPY 65.6%
GBPJPY 47.2%
CHFJPY 98.7%
GBPCHF 0.0%
EURAUD 40.3%
EURCAD 0.0%
AUDCAD 0.0%
AUDJPY 19.2%

orlando jcr 07:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GBP short 9188-9168... +20
grtting some shut eye now

KL KL 07:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Did you catch some gbpusd short again at 1.9189....today is a different day ... I feel a bit cautious taking position...gold is really troubling me a lot

Helsinki iw 07:21 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The corrective move in EUR/USD is still firmly on track. There could be some support at the 1,3190/00 level today, as it is the midpoint in the daily bollinger bands (21period), but stronger support is expected only at 1,3140/50. If broken we should trade sub 1.30 within next week. IMHO.

lon jr 07:07 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Expect sf to play catch up today...Ist turn on my trends since 8th oct...expect sf selling on x's and lr sf edging higher.

KL KL 06:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well did you catch some gbpusd shorts at 1.9161...some how this may not run as low as I expect it ..so I will be doing my customary take the pips as it can still climb a bit higher short term in next 15-25 minutes..imho...locking in 3 pips now..well I am out and taking the +11 on offer at 50....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (FX5M120909-Forum) 06:50 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The Demo now in positi sshort yen...must be close to short it

ICT ML 06:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
We will consider buying Aussie if it can break through .7550 30 min EMA50 clean with good volume. .7500 should be support if the dollar bear move is just in retrace mode and not dead for now. Daily and weekly studies don't look good for .7500 to hold right now though but that can all change.

Right now just short $CAD for intraday dealer picking from 1.2254 and on it too looking to see if it can break under 30min EMA50 1.2230 cleanly. Techs say it might so we'll do one of Athens famous "profit or money back" stops on it for now.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (FX5M120909-Forum) 06:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
check out the return on above demo

Hong Kong Qindex 06:44 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN 05:27 GMT - Certainly, keep an eye on Gold!

Hong Kong Qindex 06:43 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Sorry...Omit last post
these are for today

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3457 1.3156 Sell Buy
USDJPY 105.7412 103.5687 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9424 1.9058 Sell Buy
USDCHF 1.1638 1.1363 Sell Hold
EURCHF 1.5384 1.5226 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7652 0.7444 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2329 1.2117 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7190 0.6991 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6975 0.6849 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.5105 137.0318 Sell Buy
GBPJPY 203.5912 199.2207 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.8996 89.6048 Hold Buy
GBPCHF 2.2363 2.1919 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7847 1.7363 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6444 1.6068 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9327 0.9099 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 82.1783 76.2480 Sell Buy

Zaporozhye, UA Nemo 06:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Hi, guyz! Somebody know, when SNB will due press-conference? TIA

Atl TJ 06:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 06:16 GMT December 10, 2004
GEP, was that a 20 SMA or EMA? The reason I am asking is that I am showing 1.9251 as the 20 SMA for GBPUSD. I am not sure where your 1.9229 comes from.

Clarification please?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips (FX5M120909-Forum) 06:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
My Orders for today

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3457 1.3156 Sell Buy
USDJPY 105.7412 103.5687 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9424 1.9058 Sell Buy
USDCHF 1.1638 1.1363 Sell Hold
EURCHF 1.5384 1.5226 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7652 0.7444 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2329 1.2117 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7190 0.6991 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6975 0.6849 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.5105 137.0318 Sell Buy
GBPJPY 203.5912 199.2207 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.8996 89.6048 Hold Buy
GBPCHF 2.2363 2.1919 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7847 1.7363 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6444 1.6068 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9327 0.9099 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 82.1783 76.2480 Sell Buy

Hong Kong Qindex 06:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN 05:27 GMT - Certainly, keep an on Gold!

Jkt Rick 06:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The ausi is currently a buy at 0.754 as mentioned last night, s/l at 7360 targets are 0.80, break of the support and failure of uptrend will bring it down to 0.66 very quickly.

Syd A 06:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Bull divergence noted on AUD-USD (60 + 120 min). Worth considering buy in the 0.7520 region for 0.7620, stop just below 0.7500... but might have missed it already...

Free "FX-Risk Calculator" at www.ForexFlows.com

Dallas GEP 06:16 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
OK...This may help. Set up a 20 period moving average line and pull up a 2 hour chart on the GBP. Notice how USUALLY within a 24 hour period of time price action will at least touch or go thru that 20 period MA which is at 1.9229. Generally the within 10-12 hours 1.9220-1.9230 SHOULD print.

orlando jcr 06:08 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
KL / GEP (et al),

Oringal estimate from KL was that short would happen at 1.9160 for next leg of GBP.

It seems to be hovering at 45... Still thinking it will climb or is this a good entry...??

orlando jcr 06:06 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
GEP,

I had my usual fixed SL 10 below initial but when it started climbing I put in a new SL as trailing when it went +7.

orlando jcr 06:05 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Trailing SL hit on cable long at 1.9142 for a +19 start of the evening...

Dallas GEP 06:04 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
JCR, A trailing stop loss on a LONG should be BELOW the entry price NOT above it.

Dallas GEP 06:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
In my view it is SIGNIFICANT that the MACD's on the EURO has crossed down on the DAILY charts. This means IMO that the EURO is NOW becoming a SELL on Rallies INSTEAD of the BUY on DIPS it has been for months. The WEEKLYS and the MONTHLYS have NOT turned down yet but the thought that you should just blindly BUY EURO on all dips IMO needs to be rethought.

orlando jcr 06:00 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Nice long GBP to open the night...
entered at 1.9123 with a trailing SL at 1.9238...
We'll see if it rides up any more...!!
Nice start for the night.

Ldn 05:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
The greenback's recovery, doesn't mean that the dollar-bearish sentiment in the mid- to long-term has been reversed, dealers said. The huge U.S. current account and budget deficits - the primary factors for the dollar's recent decline - still loom large, and the dollar will likely resume its descent before the end of this year, dealers said. "Along with this strong dollar-bearish sentiment, there are many Japanese exporters who still hold dollars that they must sell. That selling has a big impact because they don't buy back dollars for exchange gains, like fund players do," said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of foreign exchange at Mitsubishi Securities
( AP )

Dallas GEP 05:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Well that short usd/jpy got stopped at -9 pips while I was away. No biggie but I missed out on some early ASIAN action.

Syd 05:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Squeeze between China's falling consumer prices and still higher producer prices might convince government to widen forex trading band, Bank of America's Parpart says; higher world oil and commodity prices have helped keep PPI above 8% in November while CPI has slumped to 2.8%; Parpart said 3% widening of yuan trading band might be option to take pressure off producers
reuters .

LDN LDN 05:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Qindex do you think something is in the wind

KL KL 05:23 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Last 3 days trading ...one word FUNTASTIC...just collect both ways. I am neither bull or bear just following the short term trend!! Just long cable earlier at 1.9110 and will be out near 1.9160 or there abouts..play the retrace then the up from 1.9080 to 1.9290 -1.9320 then short again from there...Today or Monday the mood MAY change...IMHO...gl gt all.

Sydney 05:16 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Edgy market with thin conditions positon squaring etc.

Brisbane 05:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Go long AUD/NZD as short-term trading strategy, as it managed to hold above major support at 1.0564, writes Citigroup; says it put on this position yesterday at 1.0630, targeting 1.0831; says it'll cut losses if pair falls below major support at 1.0507; Reuters.

nyc sa 05:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia , if u r around , plz tell us what's ur view on cable ,is it a buy here ? what would be a good entry point ? thnx .

LDN LDN 05:13 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
PM Koizumi late yesterday that he believed markets should determine FX levels, from METI's Nakagawa today that the USD/JPY move down to the 100-105 level would not
seriously affect Japanese exporters and ex-MoF vice minister Sakakibara calling for 90-95 by March-end had little effect. Dealers

part of a IFR transcript.

chicago joe 05:10 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
bye bye gbp/jpy

wellington am 04:58 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
LA Fxnew 04:41 GMT December 10, 2004

Sentiment is $ bullish, becareful.

LA Fxnew 04:41 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
hi , just wondering if anyone long cable from here ?????
thankss

Syd 04:36 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
A widening Australian trade deficit in October reflects an increase in the import of capital goods, acting Trade Minister Alexander Downer said Friday.
"While Australian imports remain strong, reflecting the strength of the Australian economy, the increases over the past year have focussed on the capital goods we need for investing in Australia's future," he said
ABC

Hong Kong Qindex 04:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:15 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 04:09 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
United Tech CEO says yuan sharply undervalued
BOSTON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - United Technologies Corp.
Chief Executive George David said on Thursday that China's currency was trading at only around half its real value against the U.S. dollar, and that a revaluation would sharply boost the company's sales.

U.S. diversified manufacturer United Technologies, whose products range from Pratt & Whitney jet engines to Otis elevators, said it expected China's construction boom to be a catalyst in driving earnings growth of 10 percent to 15 percent in 2005.

The yuan is pegged at about 8.28 to the dollar. Many U.S. leaders argue that the fixed rate is artificially low and makes Chinese goods unfairly cheap on world markets.

Asked how the company could boost revenue in China, David said, "The short answer is to revalue the renminbi, because what's wrong with all the numbers in China is that the renminbi, in my judgment, is down by a factor of two. It's two times undervalued."

David, during a question and answer session at an investor meeting in New York that was carried on the Web, said the peg for the Chinese currency deflated how much business the company was actually doing in the world's seventh-largest economy.

United Technologies has revenue of $1.5 billion in China, but the figure would be about $3 billion if the currency were more accurately valued, David said.

"The renminbi revaluation is coming," David said. "There is a lot of pressure for that to happen -- this currency is way undervalued -- and when it does, it will change our numbers a fair amount."

The company, based in Hartford, Connecticut, already commands a significant presence in China.

Its Otis elevators hold the top market share in China with 28 percent, ahead of Japan's Mitsubishi Electric Corp.
at 20 percent to 21 percent, according to David.

United Technologies is aggressively targeting acquisitions in China with what David described as a "ready, fire, aim" policy.

"We will do acquisitions in China at a moment's notice," David said. "We want these deals to get done."

Ldn 04:04 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Japan's Tanigaki says fx market pausing for now

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh05623_2004-12-10_03-13-43_t127040_newsml

houston st 04:03 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

SWAP -- the magic & pain of price action can be very tricky @ times...hopefully your pain will lead to profits soon...much luck to you...

Quebec Swap 03:57 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
houston st 03:30 GMT

Yeah, it kind of sucks though, cause I'm still long Eur/Usd.

Halifax CB 03:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - the Economist on-line is out & it is probably just getting read in Asia. It's not very favourable to Japan this week (for example, reminders of low growth for 2005, Japan's big budget deficit re. GDP, etc..) Plus it's been building for awhile; every technical factor on various charts points towards a weaker yen. Even I'm making money.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK Kevin 03:52 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 03:40 GMT, I think USD/JPY is due for a correction back to 103.50/80.

LA Ty 03:49 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
van Geko > what do you mean? Did he say something?

prague viktor 03:47 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 01:38 GMT December 10, 2004..G.day mate! the 2 part from the MIB show...great point with the gold..for the long run do u still see 1,14888 ..as Mr Snow is back to the game once again..TIA..G/T

van Gecko 03:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 03.28.. Tanigaki is preparing a yummy pre Christmas Teriyaki steak dinner for those hungry $bears.. :))

NYCNYCNYC 03:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
"slattered"
Is 25bp that much difference?
Sentiment here seems dominant bearish the USD.
The Euro is a buy and lower for sure?

I think eur/usd is very vulnerable overnight and generally.

Trendfollowing operations are cooling with yr end approaching and if their stops start getting tripped, it could snoball.

knoxville dan-k 03:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
hummm, usd/jpy not giving up the ghost yet, took puppy short for 10 pips, and stopped out now wondering maby 106

Providence, RI JHF 03:32 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
By the way, is anyone else seeing what I'm seeing: EUR/JPY looking at a test of 2003 highs near 141 in the very near future, with real good prospects for gains well beyond that going forward?

houston st 03:31 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

JHF -- someone attacking yen pairs...just typical Asia account wiper tactics...gl/gt.

houston st 03:30 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

SWAP -- I think you hit the nail on the head this week when you stated that Jap session seems to hammer down the euro and then London session picks it back up...I'm concerned $ will now be supported into next week's FOMC shindig due to booksquaring...if nothing else it's a cheaper level to buy eur$...time will tell...good trades

Hong Kong Qindex 03:29 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane 03:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Japan Nakagawa Comments Confirm PM Koizumi Talk, No FX Action

Providence, RI JHF 03:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
What just caused the USD pop? I turned away for a second and looked back to see EUR/JPY spiked up to new highs.

Ldn 03:28 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Never seen such rapid movement anyone know what it its
its similar to a NY open or european open

Halifax CB 03:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - I agree, but I wouldn't get too bearish. I think (from the past) we'll probably have a couple weaks of ups & downs - maybe even new highs - before a real correction takes place (say, to the 1.26 area.) GT...

Quebec Swap 03:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I'm not too concerned right now about Eur/Usd. The time zone is not in sync with what the big money wants. European session will give clearer picture leading towards US session.

Ldn 03:25 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
What the censored going on

houston st 03:20 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

we needed to stay above 1.3250ish on eur$...thinking we'll see 1.3185/90 @ some point now...

ICT ML 03:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
well just an observation, but for something that is still "bullish" to many, eur-usd is sure spending the majority of its recent time at the extreme low end of its range and making lower highs intraday to boot........there are many ways to kill a cat, and I believe dumping gold to do it could have been an ingenious tactic used :-)

wellington am 03:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
out usd/chf even.

Halifax CB 03:16 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
I seem to have pennant on the brain these days - is this something to do with my activities in the 60's and 70's? oh well - in any case it looks like EURJPY is breaking out of a big slowly evolving onethat has been forming since last year. If so, it could be a big one, as the run-up was really quite long.
here's a plot of the weekly chart where the formation is clear; on the daily chart the breakout is more obvious (as is my bad drawing ability with a mouse). There is a pretty clear trend on the half hours (of around +2 pips per hour, right now, which is too fast to be sustained. And we are in a sideways movement with a bit of down drift. To every silver lining there is a dark cloud....). I'm in on this, though with medium (~75p) s'ls as the events happen on long time scales, & I wanna go to bed ....

In the long run I think that weakness will catch up with the yen more than the euro, so I have closed my eurusd short from earlier at a small profit.
GL/GT....

Hong Kong Qindex 03:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

perrie como 03:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
that Tanigaki seemingly the Japanese Duisenberg equivalente...when he speeks the yen - the yen is in disaster mood :(

Syd 03:08 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank says Data should removing what we see as an unreasonable pricing of rate cut risk by the RBA. 3-year bond futures last at 94.98, down 6 bps

wellington am 03:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
shorted usd/chf 1.1550

Brisbane 02:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
With the margin of New Zealand bond yields over their equivalent Australian credits unlikely to widen further as the Australian economy recovers, RBC Capital Markets believes the Australian dollar can rise from a near nine-year low against its commodity currency cousin. At 0245 GMT Friday the Australian dollar was at NZ$1.0640, having traded down NZ$1.0568 earlier this week. This was its lowest point in a couple of months, and placed it within striking distance of the NZ$1.0507 low made in July 1995. RBC currency strategist Greg Gibbs says stronger-than-expected employment numbers issued Thursday are symptomatic of an economy that is rebounding well from a soft patch in the third quarter. Gibbs says the jobs data reinforce evidence of a "strong economic pulse" in business surveys, consumer confidence, and import growth. Australia's jobless rate fell to 5.2% in November from 5.3% in October as the number of employed rose 24,500, outpacing analysts' estimates of a 10,000 gain. The unemployment rate is at its lowest since the monthly series began in February 1978, and matches the February 1977 reading from the old quarterly series. These types of upbeat numbers mean there is "little reason for Australian yields to continue to fall relative to those in New Zealand," says Gibbs.
This prompted Gibbs to recommend to his clients to unwind option protection on a long Australian dollar position, and set a stop-loss on this at NZ$1.0515 and a take-profit order at NZ$1.1200. The protection he had had in place on this position was an Australian dollar put with a NZ$1.0950 strike, expiring Dec. 29 that was purchased Nov. 25. New Zealand rate margin over Australia in the two-year note began to widen from mid-November and is now at its broadest level in the current cycle. Employment numbers pushed up Australian yields eight basis points. "Interest rate futures markets still have a slight bias toward expecting a rate cut in the year ahead," says Gibbs. "But the jobs data could be the first step toward shifting expectations back toward a neutral outlook or even a risk of rate hikes," he says. The strategist says the "robust state of employment and broad economic confidence gives reason to believe retailing and capital expenditure data have under represented the strength of the economy." And if this is true then the period of relative weakness in Australian yields might have passed.
BP DJ.

Tokyo IM 02:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
tk jf// how about next thursday, will need clear head saturday ? Today I am kind of busy as well, birthday party (not mine).

SAIHAT What_he_lost_when_he_found_you 02:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
0.7747 0.7738 R4
0.7685 0.7680 R3
0.7646 0.7644 R2
0.7637 0.7636 R1

AUDUSD
0.7555 0.7552
0.7560 0.7555

0.7482 0.7481 S1
0.7473 0.7471 S2
0.7435 0.7430 S3
0.7372 0.7363 S4

Sydney 02:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
If no rates Hike next week USD will be slattered across the trading floors

tk jf 02:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
nice w/e gl.gt -- tokyo im next friday ok - got hammered last night all the best

knoxville dan-k 02:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
anyone? what is current ccy bid/ask on eur/usd?

chicago joe 02:35 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Wellington agreed, all depends on the fed statement and the tone it carrys. That might entail the last leg of the dollar fall and maybe aud can rally back.

KL KL 02:34 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Ha ha ha after long "heated"discussion with moderator....must be sleeping so I shoot a note now before he wakes up..LOL.... Been enjoying the ride in gbpusd from 1.9151 to 1.9330 and down and up and down...and now up - recent long at 1.9177.......shhhh...for trading before London this is about Asian support...for London lower...high will probably be around 1.9250....so been pip winning and losing ...more wins of course...I think this volitile nature will continue for a few more trading days...so IMHO don't trade long term. Use ninja style that I patented...LOL...shhh...hush hush probably .....get out near 1.92 or earlier....pips in hand better than pips in air.

Will also be buying some gold near 428...so hope that helps you make tons......ok out gbpusd long at 1.9206...and don't accuse me of picking tops..it is top base on 15 mins but can go higher on 30 mins...pips in hand better than pips in air...+29..... .shhhh gl gt all

Ldn 02:24 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Tanigaki: FX Mkt Moves Seem To Be Taking Breather Now

he may be speaking a little too soon

Syd 02:19 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ECB likely to intervene if EUR/USD approaches 1.4000, based on econometric relationship between Eurozone PMI and EUR FX rate, writes Goldman Sachs; but even then ECB may only act with support from U.S., as solo intervention considered ineffective because FX move always involves two countries or areas; tips pair at 1.3500 in 3 and 6 months, though doesn't rule out possibility of temporary rise towards 1.4000 DJ

Syd 02:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Might try long EUR-USD in this region, stop below 1.3255

Free "FX-Risk Calculator" at www.ForexFlows.com

wellington am 02:08 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
ok, ozzy/usd bounced off a higher low 0.7505 (10 pips above last low). If tonight is a $/bear, this one's been way oversold and should rally hard. should.

wellington am 02:04 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Syd 02:02 GMT December 10, 2004

You don't say. lol.

Syd 02:02 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Just heard some banks put out a recommendation to buy Aud/Nzd at these levels.. FWIW

LA Ty 01:51 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD has taken 3 stabs at 3360 resistance the past couple of days so I'm thinking a slide below 3250 or a climb to 3468 is coming for intraday.

Tokyo IM 01:50 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Goodmorning all.
I hope this friday will be frutfull. Lets see how this week will finish - US$ bull or bear.

Dallas GEP 01:48 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
104.97 short on usd/jpy 10 pip stop

wellington am 01:44 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
hmmm, $/yen hourlys looks bullish - penetrate 105???

Brisbane 01:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Australia's export performance relative to the third quarter average actually looks slightly better, but imports are up 3% on the same measure
censored

van Gecko 01:38 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
gold bugs are now in a near panic 'Dump it on any Blip' p/t mode.. liquidity is near non-existent.. pandemonium could set in if theres no late comers to buy it down at the $425/30 panic station..
a great market for those Men in Black to do their shadowy tricks..
cheerios..

dc fxq 01:26 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
MOW, if the ECB and MoF wanted to get real bang for the buck in the market, would be the time to buy $ and sell Eur and Yen --- put a real fear of gods factor into the market for several days if not more.

Ldn 01:21 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Go long basket of BRICs currencies (BRL, RUB, INR and CNY) vs USD, says Goldman Sachs; it continues to believe CNY revaluation could happen "any time;" thinks there's potential for substantial rise of RUB and INR, as both Russian, Indian authorities adopt view that strong FX is one of most efficient ways to fight inflation; in Brazil, very high carry should still generate healthy overall returns. Brazil has proposed an FTA with India as part of Brazil's so-called BRIC strategy of tying together Brazil, Russia, India, China
dj

shanghai bc 01:14 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   

They have some 100 billion Dollars as reserves..More phychological than real effct..But their receipts from Oil sales could be a very large sum in the long run and if they recieve in Euro,that could have a real effect on Eur/Usd in the long run too..

NYCNYCNYC 01:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Russia's CB may reduce USD portion of reserves.
Here, at 1.33? Not 82 4 years ago, or do they want to do it at 1. 50, if we get there?

dc fxq 00:55 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 00:40 GMT

Witness the "doom and gloom" articles in virtually every print/internet media of the daily variety (NYT, WP, etc.) this week going on about EMU tourons "sc opping up" bargains in the US and "Ami" tourons in the EMU bewailing the weak $,

Now if Time and Newsweek have cover stories on the "plinging$" we will have a bottom in place shortly,

Brisbane 00:54 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
anyone on the Aud at the moment
looks like it could break 75 v

prague jv 00:45 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
to add to my last two post , the levels belowe are strong support and ress. levels , combinated with cyclical movment and diverging mini cycles in it , is good level to end this corrective movment .

Atl TJ 00:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
London. 00:22 GMT December 10, 2004
No sign of U.S. plan on dollar

Reporters and the news sometimes really amuse me. There is a plan for the Dollar. The plan is to let the markets be free.

dc fxq 00:40 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
London. 00:22 GMT

Here I go again.

I think the White House invitatio to TsySe Snow to remain on the job answers the "policy: question.

Its pretty clear cut for me.

NYCNYCNYC 00:39 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Vs the Irish minister, IMO The US has goven clear indications of its USD policy.

Foreign consumpton needs to rise and US savings rates need to rise, a lower US dollar can help that along.

Treasury, the Fed and the administration are happy with the falling dollar.

I think they are leaving in ECB hands, do they want to start spending $$$$ to support the USD?

Syd 00:33 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Goldman Sachs recommends buying call on basket of 4 currencies (CHF, EUR, JPY and TWD) vs USD, as it expects further USD fall in 2005; says it will index option premium to initial value of 100; says investment horizon is 1 year, though expiration will be 18 months to benefit from expected rise in volatility; adds strike should be close to possible profit-taking FX levels - its 12-month forecasts of 1.09 for USD/CHF, 1.4000 for EUR/USD, 95 for USD/JPY and 31.50 for USD/TWD
Dj

prague jv 00:27 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
for eur/jpy to get 139.70/80 , usd/jpy =105.55 and eur/usd holds 1.3240 support is very likely for next movment

London. 00:22 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
No sign of U.S. plan on dollar
LINKDUBLIN (Reuters) - Europe has received no indication of a U.S. plan to tackle dollar weakness and is in wait-and-see mode until there is a clear direction on the exchange rate policy from Washington, Ireland's finance minister says.

prague jv 00:17 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd puling towards 1.3243 . eur/gbp cycle positive + taked 0.6930 res. b4 and after intraday pullback is on way to 0.6970 next directional crossroad . gbp/usd cycle negative and providing the above levels are posible to achieve within next 12 hr , wud projected target for gbo 1.9000 level.

LA Ty 00:12 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
regarding MAs - could anyone shed some light as to how do you know what values to use when using SMA,EMA, or WMA ? On what time frames are these MAs commonly used on and what values are normally used by most fx traders? I use SMA and EMA of 9 & 18 respectively for intraday.

Ldn 00:05 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Goldman Says the Dollar Will Extend Its Drop in 2005, Mostly Against Yen
L I N K

dc fxq 00:01 GMT December 10, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 23:32 GMT December 9, 2004
fxq// GL & GT. I dont trust data some times for a variety of reasons but I dont deny its ability and usefullness in moving s/t market.

All that counts for me + a large degree of anticipation of how it will affect prices. :)

Some days I win!
LoL

 




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