Forex Forum Archive for 12/11/2004

Mtl JP 23:48 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
Alex 17:51 / there really are only two, three maybe four news services that carry weight. On Friday, Reuters said: "China has not reduced holdings of U.S. dollar assets in its foreign currency reserves, the country's forex regulator said on Friday. Sooooo.. that would exonerate at least one reputable one news purveyor. The Q then is... WHY would the Chinese feel compelled (are they sensitive perhaps?) to make any "corrections" to the floated story. Could it be that they are worried about the mountainous heap of fiats (to put it politely) that they are holding and worried that the market could reduce its so-called worth before they are surreptiously able to shovel themselves out from beneath it ?

London Alex 17:51 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone seen this denial? What "foreign press" are they referring to?

BEIJING, Dec. 10 (Xinhuanet) -- A spokesman for China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange Friday denied reports by foreign press that China has reduced large amounts of its foreign exchange reserves in the US dollar, saying that the reports are totally groundless.

In response to questions from the press, the spokesman said that the currency structure of China's foreign exchange reserves and the management of it are based on a scientific foundation, with consideration given to the actual conditions of the country's economic development, foreign trade payment and foreign debt makeup, as well as the situation of the capital market.

"We pay high attention to the changing trend in the international foreign exchange market, but we will not readjust the currency makeup of the foreign exchange reserves simply because of short-term market fluctuations," said the spokesman.

As a highly responsible investor in the international market, China always works consciously to maintain the safety and stability of the international market and it's definitely impossible for China to participate in foreign exchange rate speculation, he added.

Livingston nh 17:15 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 20:10 GMT December 10, 2004
Pumpkin, therefore normalisation of rates in the USA may be very hard to achieve for the reasons you mention,, additionally the level of household debt in many g7+commonwealth countries is staggering.. an incremental shift in rates has a multiplying effect on debt servicing at a household and national level..... every Central Bank that has been in a hiking cycle on the last year has stopped short of deliverying the "medicine" that they would want to deliver... RBA only 50bp... their smallest hiking cycle to date.. BOC & RBNZ , hands tied by currency.. BOE , the short sterling strip implied an additional 100bp of tightening 5-6 months ago... this wasnt delivered and the market is talking about rate cuts in the UK next year... and the FED... I think FF top out at 2.50pct max and stay there for a long while .. for the above mentioned reasons ... a lot less than what is priced in the eurodollar futures curve currently..3.00-3.50 next year..4.00 on 2006....

Tor Pumpkin 19:54 GMT December 10, 2004

Joe - RBA and BoE are both operating with negative yield curves so I'm not sure further tightening would serve much purpose - the Fed has been surprisingly tight w/ money supply the last year - and I think the Fed will move well beyond the 2.5% level but flood of dollars into the world over the last four years has kept interest rates low as the search for diversification has raised the demand for non-US fixed income // much has been made about the BoJ holdings remaining stable since the end of Q1 but the point Pumpkin makes about the interest payments seems to indicate that BoJ has diverted the periodic interest on 3/4 trio away from further US assets -- makes it easier for the EU (and others) to fund its budget deficits at much lower interest rates than might be called for without the dollar flood -- eventually (even w/o China demand) we should see more inflation in commodities, real estate and equities which will devalue all fixed income assets

Will China follow Japan or will it devalue to avoid marking down its reserves?

Odessa GM 14:56 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
Good day! On technical signals I agree, and from the point of view of calculations of forthcoming economic news too.... The First stop before correction on euro, in my opinion - 1.3115

Lj gmc 14:49 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
I think for next week eur usd will be 1,3
gpb usd 1,88
Hope not be too much different from friday close and
before station open in Sunday.
These is just my opinium. GT to all.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:43 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
USD Index (DX, NYBOT) : Current Comment. Register with Jay at >[email protected] you have no access to my page.

SPORE 13:17 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
Anybody has any views on the malaysia and indonesia market?
I think is a good time to buy ringgit now.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:07 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
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Taiwan 12:16 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
The pro-independence coalition conceded defeat in the nartional election.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:56 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
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Hong Kong Qindex 08:36 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
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Hong Kong Qindex 06:36 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
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Hong Kong Qindex 06:33 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
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Hong Kong Qindex 06:32 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
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Wien GD 00:18 GMT December 11, 2004 Reply   
Thx for the book /bookslinks!
Have a nice weekend!