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Forex Forum Archive for 12/12/2004

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Hong Kong Qindex 23:59 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:24 GMT - USD/CAD : This one could be very explosive, see details in my page.

Bruxville Jim 23:50 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Good night all... 1:49 AM EET

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:48 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
I think the euro is on the verg of crashing...max by tues

Tokyo IM 23:43 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Morning all.

Halifax CB 23:36 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain - my 0.02$ CAD tells me just to stay out till sometime tomorrow, at least until after NY opens (and probably later). Maybe last Monday's memory is still a little too fresh :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:24 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Yes Jim

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:24 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q...Mind me for asking...
U think Cad will go down to about 1.2216 tehn sharp up wards a figure or more?

Bruxville Jim 23:21 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
You mean buying USDCHF as well?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:15 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
The funny thing Jim...
I have chf the same...
I wonder why?

Hong Kong Qindex 23:02 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bruxville Jim 22:56 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain// To close the opening gaps?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 22:41 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone...
Just testing something here...any longing eruo till mid US session?...

Philadelphia Caba 22:34 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:30 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. For the eur/jpy pair I believe it is still in a bullish pattern with some retracement coming up on it as the indicators unwind. Immediate support for this pair is 139.00-10 and a key support is 137.50-60 with support T/L around the 137.00-10 area IMHO. GL GT

wellington am 22:23 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:13 GMT December 12, 2004

Hi Caba

Not sure about euro/yen, but I'm playing GBP/YEN from the short side - selling at 202.10 and buying back pull backs, waiting for a significant correction downwards. 202 area was last Oct high, and with heavy way cable looks on the 4 hour charts, I'm feel pretty relaxed. Stop above 202.60.

lon jr 22:19 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Eur/yen..stops friday were left 139.25...others around on break 139.00

Philadelphia Caba 22:13 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Good evening everyone!
Still long on eurjpy from friday last week (@139.55) but thinking about close & reverse if 138.50-139.00 will not hold. Any view appreciate. Thanks. GT!

NewYork frankie 22:04 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Early in today as I think we'll see some good moves this week to complete the dollar rebound before the selling continues. Cable and Euro on the 4hr charts loook like EXCELLENT sell positions. I think Cable could touch 1.89 today. I think Blair will have no other option but to push Blunket out the door for the sake of party unity and especially with a looming election in May next year. I'm very confident Cable will be hammered this week. So my strategy will be to sell every minor correction as I don't see any way back for cable based on tech and fundamentals. I think selling on rallies this week has to be the preferred strategy. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of volitilty with these thin market positions. All stops are placed at 1.9182 aimimg for something bigger by the end of the week. I will however, take a 150pip profit regardless of the time i.e. whether that be today or tomorrow. Gts this week to all.

lon jr 21:55 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
sold cable 19104...stop 04..profit 1.9039

london jr 20:46 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Well with plunkett appearing to eventually get pushed..thinkk cable cud get hit if we break below 05-10 lvl...still think its soft...sold at highs friday..but squared as had a good week on shorting..

Belfast JAO 20:04 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
What way is the GBP/$ expected to go on opening tonight and through tomorrow. Thanks

dc fxq 19:53 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: Wellington NZ is now 08:52 am and some stray changes are beginning to show up on my platform. Still and all, I wouldn't touch them with a 10m pole.

GVI john 19:47 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
MONDAY, December 13, 2004
04:30 GMT- JPN- October Industrial Production (rev.)
07:00 GMT- GER- Nov Producer Prices: vs. +0.9% in Oct
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov PPI:
Input PPI: vs. +1.8% in Oct
Output PPI: vs. +0.7% in Oct
11:00 GMT- UK- Dec CBI Industrial trends Survey
13:30 GMT- US- Nov Retail Sales: vs. +0.2%, +0.9% x-autos Oct, see +0.1%, +0.4%
13:30 GMT- US- Oct Business Inventories and Sales

TUESDAY, December 14, 2004
01:30 GMT- JPN- 20-yr JGB Auction
AUS- RBA Deputy Governor Stevens Speaks
00:30 GMT- AUS- November NAB Business Survey
09:30 GMT UK- Nov CPI: vs. +0.3%, +1.2% y/y in Oct
13:30 GMT- CDA- October Manufacturing Shipments
13:30 GMT- CDA- October Trade balance, vs. +C$5.06bln
13:30 GMT- US- Oct Trade report: vs. $51.6 bln in Sept, see $52.5 bln
14:15 GMT- US- Nov Industrial Production: vs. +0.7% in Oct, see +0.3%
14:15 GMT- US- Nov Capacity Utilization: vs. 77.7% in Oct, see 77.8%
19:15 GMT- US- FOMC decision

WEDNESDAY, December 15, 2004
23:50 JPN- BOJ Tankan Survey
00:30 GMT- AUS- December DEWR Skilled Vacancies
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov Unemployment: vs. +900 in Oct
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:30 GMT- US- Dec Empire State PMI: vs. 19.8 in Nov, see 20.0
14:00 GMT- Treasury International Capital System (TICS) Flows
15:30 GMT- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys

THURSDAY, December 16, 2004
BOJ Policy Meeting – Day 1 23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
00:30 GMT- AUS- 3Q04 Housing Starts
December RBA Bulletin
09:30 GMT- UK- Nov Retail Sales Volume: vs. +6.0% y/y in Oct
10:00 GMT- EUR- Nov final CPI: vs. preliminary +2.2% y/y
13:30 GMT- CDA- Net capital inflows
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims:
13:30 GMT- US- Nov Housing Starts: vs. 2.027 mln units in Oct, see 1.980 mln
17:00 GMT- US- Dec Philly Fed Survey: vs. 20.7 in Nov, see 21.0
US- FOMC minutes

FRIDAY, December 17, 2004
BOJ Policy Meeting – Day 2 09:00 GMT- GER- Dec IFO Business Survey: vs. 94.1 in Nov
10:00 GMT- EUR- Oct Industrial Output: vs. -0.5% in Sept
UK- BOE Quarterly Bulletin
12:00 GMT- CDA- November CPI
13:30 GMT- US- Nov CPI: vs. +0.6%, +0.2% ex-food & energy in Oct, see +0.2%, +0.2% ex-food & energy

Halifax CB 19:45 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, nh

London sj 19:25 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
If your broker lets you trade, then there is a market. Not a sensible market because there is no liquidity, quite pointless to trade really. If on the other hand you had very good intelligence about something occuring that would under normal trading conditions move a trading pair by say 300 pips, then unless you were on the right side of this trade anytime during the weekend before it happened you would not get the price previously quoited. Quite simply put the market will risk assess the events and adjust the prices accordingly.

Madrid Trading hoursNZSX & NZDX MARKETS: 18:46 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading hours NZSX & NZDX MARKETS:
Enquiry: 8.00am - 9.00am
Pre-open: 9.00am - 10.00am
Normal Trading: 10.00am - 5.00pm
Adjust: 5.00pm - 5.30pm
Enquiry: 5.30pm

Enquiry: 8.00am - 10.00am
Anonymous Call Auction: 10.00am - 11.00am
Normal Trading: 11.00am - 4.00pm
Anonymous Call Auction: 4.00pm - 4.30pm
Enquiry: 4.30pm

Antwerp Tom 18:45 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks CAB and Mike

Madrid CAB 18:42 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply

sf mike 18:37 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
19:00GMT will be 8:00AM in Wellington. What time do banks open there?

Madrid CAB 18:37 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply

Antwerp Tom 18:24 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
What GMT time is Wellington open? TIA

sydney ff 18:21 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
there is a very small localised fx market trading on saturday morning out of the middle east........essentially dealing with gold fixing.......never enough to move anything though. FX is not an exchange market, so if anyone is willing to show u a price at any point during the week then thats a tradeable market....its just that u wont get shown prices or liquidity in any amount from NY close on friday to wellington open on monday

Budapest Szeri 18:15 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Jim, Tom: If You want to see normative weekend quotes,
look at
S4xo will correct the prizes soon.

Bruxville Jim 18:07 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton, you're welcome to bring horses to water on why brokers show such surreal quotes over the weekend.

Of course those won't be the opening prices in the Monday morning in NZ, but the fact is they are quoted.

Bring them on!

Livingston nh 18:01 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
CB - Economist may have a new "cookies" policy for adverts - check your settings

Boca Raton 17:33 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki, you can bring a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. I little knowledge is a dangerous thing as witnessed here by many. I have mentioned in the past that there is no trading of FX after New York close, until Wellington open Monday, yet, the intellectual giants assure themselves that there is. It is no wonder why more experienced, market saavy traders get frustrated with the people here who pat themselves on the back all the time, stop viewing/posting.

Halifax CB 17:31 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Anybody else having trouble accessing the Economist website? I like to peruse it Sunday mornings, and it keeps giving me rather odd errors....

Helsinki iw 17:26 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
The discussion about weekend trading seems to pop up here on a regular basis, despite the fact that those more experienced members of the forum, most with a trading-room past, unanimously testify that there is no market between New York´s Friday close and the opening on Monday in Wellington. If your broker let´s you trade on weekends that is what he will make you -broker.

dc fxq 16:49 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
we are probably on the same platform Jim, (O....) I've seen mroe than a few spurious w/e quotes elsewhere in the past. I would sit tight.

Bruxville Jim 16:39 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom // Well, my broker gives me a tradable quote of 1.3219/29 at the moment. What I'm curious about is whether S..O fills clients' orders (be those stops, TP's, or entries) at these inflated prices...

Antwerp Tom 16:28 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Jim, note that GEP suggested last Friday a possible down gap after weekend of maybe 100 pips in €/$...if i have to chose between GEP and s..o-feed, GEP's my man so it doesn't make much sense to me.

Bruxville Jim 16:11 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
For reference later - prices shown on SAXXXXO feed at the moment (16:09 GMT):

EUR/USD 1.3297/01(!)
USD/JPY 104.52/56(!)
USD/CHF 1.1532/38(!)
GBP/USD 1.9144/48
USD/CAD 1.2252/58
AUD/USD 0.7506/12
EUR/JPY 138.99/04
EUR/CHF 1.5338/44
EUR/GBP 0.6944/48(!)
GBP/JPY 200.10/18(!)

Are they running clients' stops or what?

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
bc 00:25 / why should it be sensible for others to accept us paper fiats (usdcad 2002: 1.60 -> 2003: 1.45 -> 2004: 1.30-> current 1.1750/1.22 trend) for "land with mineral deposite underneath" ??..

It is not easy for foreigners to acquire large Canadian companies. SOE is no exception. The Minister of Industry has a say in proposals over Cad$237mio. How would an acquisition by SOE provide a net benefit to Canadians on the basis of improved productivity, efficiency, innovation, competition and Canadian participation, as outlined in s20 of the Invest Canada Act? In the end, the acquisition may not be rejected, but approval is not an automatic conclusion and can take a long time. By then, using "Dollar as a medium.. and a good bargain as far as China sees it" may change somewhat.

wellington, fl cso 14:41 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Be on the lookout for possible disguised intervention as the Euro approaches the physcological barrier of 130. It is to nobody's interest (except short term US) that the Euro remains above the 130 level. As it approaches what better way than to give it an extra push to keep down below 130.If it does break that level I would not wanna be long Euro.On Dec 04 I stated that a 300-500- pip correction was in the works, we are half way there. That was 134.60. The faster it goes up the more likely the harder it will drop!

Hong Kong Qindex 13:31 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

SAIHAT What_he_lost_when_he_found_you 10:31 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
0.7675 0.7727 R4
0.7618 0.7644 R3
0.7582 0.7592 R2
0.7574 0.7580 R1

0.7506 0.7507
0.7503 0.7529

0.7431 0.7438 S1
0.7423 0.7433 S2
0.7388 0.7414 S3
0.7330 0.7382 S4

Hong Kong Qindex 10:12 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

London Alex 10:11 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the comments. Actually, I saw a one-week old report in the economist about China dumping dollars and that's probably one of the sources they were referring is interesting they felt they needed to deny it, suggests that China probably IS dumping dollars!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:49 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

BJ TEST 08:49 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   

Hong Kong Qindex 08:01 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:41 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
A similar format of series will be constructed for other major currencies and crosses. Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:28 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT December 12, 2004
EUR/USD : The neutral zone of my 3-month projection profile is located at 1.3067 - 1.3179. A projected resistant barrier has been established at 1.3341 - 1.3397 and the market is heading towards the neutral zone at 1.3067 - 1.3179.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:17 GMT December 12, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of 3-Month Projection Profiles

A) : ... // 1.2416 - 1.2579 - 1.2741* - 1.2904 - {1.3067} - 1.3230 - 1.3392* - 1.3555 - 1.3718 // ...

B) : ... // 1.2323* - 1.2509 - 1.2695 - 1.2881 - {1.3067}* - 1.3253 - 1.3439 - 1.3625 - 1.3811* // ...

C) : ... // 1.2026* - 1.2286 - 1.2546 - 1.2807 - {1.3067}* - 1.3328 - 1.3588 - 1.3848 - 1.4108* // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:13 GMT December 12, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of Quarterly Cycle

A) : ... // {1.2012}* - 1.2241 - 1.2470 - 1.2699 - 1.2928* - 1.3157 - 1.3386 - 1.3615 - 1.3844* // ...

B) : ... // {12012} - 1.2212 - 1.2412* - 1.2413 - 1.2813 - 1.3014 - 1.3214* - 1.3415 - 1.3615 // ...

C) : ... // {1.2012} - 1.2172 - 1.2332* - 1.2493 - 1.2653 - 1.2813 - 1.2973* - 1.3134 - 1.3294 // (1.3455) - 1.3615* ...

The common factor(s) of the series are 1.2012 and 1.3615. The mid-point reference of 1.2012 - 1.3615 is 1.2813.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:02 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
10-Yr Bond (TY, CBOT) : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:10 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   
CRB Index : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

shanghai bc 00:25 GMT December 12, 2004 Reply   

China's Dollars is the direct result of RMB's peg to Dollar..A man brings his Dollar to buy a piece of land near a cliff in remote village and China's CB gives the man RMB and in order to maintain the peg,China uses that Dollar to buy US bond..And this recycling will go on till the peg is severed..On that China reducing Dollar piles story,that is like saying China is trying to shoot his foot with a Magnum ..The only sensible solution for China may be to use those Dollars to buy the land with mineral deposite underneath in foreign countries..In aother words,China is exchanging a piece of land in China with that of a piece of Land in foreign country using Dollar as a medium..That is ,till the RMB peg is gone..A good bargain as far as China sees it.


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