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Forex Forum Archive for 12/13/2004

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Atl TJ 23:35 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
I suppose that the lack of post today indicates the Euro and Cable moves up caught a few folks be surprise. I sure turned my system into a can of worms. Here is to hoping for a little movement before the Fed does its thing.

Syd 22:58 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading conditions for Australia's manufacturers weakened in the fourth quarter of 2004, with a rising Australian dollar putting a brake on exports The slowdown comes on top of a pullback in the third quarter, with small-to-medium sized firms taking the brunt of the retreat. The net balance of firms reporting higher production fell to a seasonally adjusted +10% in the fourth quarter from +14% in the previous three months, it said. Growth was held back by a contraction in exports reflecting changing global trading patterns and the impact of the strong Australian dollar. Output was also affected by import competition and continued cost pressures, the survey said. The Australian dollar climbed for most of the fourth quarter, at one point threatening to breach its year's high struck in February of US$0.8007. Manufacturing sales rose at their slowest pace in over three years in the December quarter, led by construction material products and wood, wood products and furniture, the survey said. The AIG survey is the largest private sector survey of industrial trends in Australia. Results are based on responses from over 700 firms with an annual turnover of A$50 billion. "This outlook may be tested in the new year if domestic demand continues to slow and exports fail to deliver a stronger boost to manufacturing growth," she warned.
Australian Industry Group
-PricewaterhouseCoopers quarterly survey

Syd 21:58 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
N.Z. Dollar May Rise Amid Speculation Retail Sales Climbed


New Zealand's retail sales rose in October, with the monthly trend continuing to increase - albeit at a slower pace - over the past six and a half years, according to official figures released Tuesday.

Statistics New Zealand said seasonally-adjusted October retail sales were up 0.4% from September, which was higher than the 0.2% rise forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 10 economists.

Excluding sales of motor vehicles and associated products, core retail sales in October were up 0.3% from September. This compares favorably to September and August, when core sales dropped 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively.

NYC ctb 21:57 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
FatGuy No. No chance.

MEDAN FATGUY 21:31 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Is it possible FOMC HOLD RATE UNCHANGE ?

Syd 21:20 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Cuba starts 'huge' military drill

there all at it

Auckland 21:14 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks mate...

kranj 21:12 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Auckland I will ask GV to forward my email to you.

Auckland 21:08 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Kranj... if you are still arround... do you mind if I ask Jay for your email... best regards from 64 dana slobodarskog...

NJ RT 20:49 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies: I aapreciate a lot your input. Had a lot to learn every time you post something. I close my short possie on EUR/USD @-8 pips and I am ready to go long from here on. Also, what is you view on AUD/CAD ? I went short @9328 looking for 9250. Thank you.

tk jf 20:43 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
when is a wedge a continuation pattern ? when its something else

NJ RT 20:39 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Lj gmc: where did u get this info ?

Lj gmc 20:32 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
I think test minimum 1,3000 eur/usd before new high
gpb/usd 1,8850

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:10 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 20:03 GMT December 13, 2004
I meant to say we are on the same direction VIIES long on eur/usd pair looking for 3445-50 too. GT

KL KL 20:08 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Well out usdcad at 1.2277 +23... will reshort again at 1.2288-94 area...hands on trigger now...in 1.2290 sl 13 above

Tallinn viies 20:03 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:00 GMT - which trade you mean?
I bought it under 1,32. no just moved my stop higher and after strong close today ready to cash in some bucks

Tallinn viies 20:00 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
max - wishful thinking?
no more corrections I think, 1,3140/50 was enough. if we will come under this level then no new highs during this year. imho

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:00 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Ok VIIES I am with you on that trade looking for 3445-50 as well GL to us then.

Syd 19:58 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD – Sell-off Precedes New Highs
by Max McKegg

December 13th - Having met my 1.3350 target, Euro/USD probably now corrects back to the 1.3000/1.2850 area over coming days. This would then set the scene for a resumption of the Euro’s Uptrend to new highs for the year and advance onto 1.3500 into the Year-End/New Year.

Tallinn viies 19:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
good evening,
daily close over 5 day ema would put yearly high quickly under fire again. will trail my stop down to previous day low.
target 1,3450 first

jkt-aye 19:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OMIL.

Gen dk 19:52 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:49 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye 19:27 GMT December 13, 2004
A correction period right now for the gbp/usd pair but intraday indicators are bullish for now. I have resistance (9280-9300) that must be taken out before another serious move to the top can continue. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:40 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 19:27 GMT December 13, 2004
You are welcome. I also have a buy signal coming up if resistance is broken later on the eur/usd pair.

Manchester Daniel 19:38 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Limit order set for 1.3360 with trail stop now set at 1.3305 - its moving like molasses so will leave it alone now and check back in a few hours.

BTW - GBP at 50% fibo level off 195+ high and just above the 100sma hourly. Not playing GBP at the moment, but an interesting res level here

jkt-aye 19:27 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, would be glad to hear your opinion abt gbp at this stage. my 4h reading find it will test friday's high. TIA

Manchester Daniel 19:27 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Omil - thanks for your reply. I also thought that this pattern was bearish. However the daily chart looks constructive - nice rejection on Friday of the daily 21ema and unless we get a late sell off in euro, eur/$ will close over the 13 ema which is a KEY MA I pay very close attention to.

I do note that $/CHF should close over its daily 13ema (unless a late sell off of $). So not quite as clear a picture as I would like to see, but as I am long euro at moment, still favouring a move to 13360 area (top of 4HR bollinger bands) - would prefer target to be met BEFORE FOMC decision tomorrow as I would prefer to be flat at that time. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:22 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
The key for this pattern to hold is that resistance (3300-20) holds. It may over shoot but the bulls must not take 3350 or they will mount an attack to test the top once again IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 18:45 GMT December 13, 2004

I will also add to my earlier comment as this pattern continues to unfold it should become a bearish rising wedge IMO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:03 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel 18:45 GMT December 13, 2004
I am looking at the pattern you just described and it looks like a flag. It reacts much like the triangle and that is usually a continuation pattern on the eur/usd pair. Here is a web site with the most popular patterns. I hope that helps
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/index.html

Manchester Daniel 18:45 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Hi - just moved offices and cant find the box with the big MURPHY technical book - so here's a question:

Eur/$ 15 min chart - there is a RISING wedge as follows:

top line: 10 Dec 13256 13 Dec 13288 13 Dec 13313

bottom line: 10 Dec 13138 13 Dec 13241

I believe that a rising wedge after a downleg is a consolidating pattern before another downleg - was wondering if someone could confirm - many thanks

knoxville dan-k 18:39 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
dead cat bounce, u have to ask this question

did it fall out of a car window
or did it fall out of a 747 and hit a trampoline

KL KL 18:29 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold is up a bit 5-6 bucks...wonder if this is a dead cat bounce or the resumption of rally....tomorrow figure will tell imho. Shorted usd cad 1.23 sl 13 above....today trading turned out to be a fizzer...imho...

berlin otto 17:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Good morning and good evening!

Yes, I must tell you - I will begin to trade tommorow
Dec 14 th, 2004 in my way.
My way is very specific - please, see the archive.

Ok, gt and gl.
Kind regards!

london sylhet 17:52 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Falls for First Day in Four; U.S. Deficits May Widen
http://www.global-view.com/beta/forums/forum_ticker.html?f=1

Stuttgart HW 17:30 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD seems to be firm right now around 13300, might show some more upwards pressure for the short term until it will fall back with small resistance around 13285, note that this is only my opinion!

Livingston nh 17:28 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Minneapolis SD 16:47 GMT December 13, 2004

Maybe oil price had something to with the spike - MACD crossed over last week so maybe some more USD strength after FOMC

london sylhet 17:23 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Stuttgart HW
I AM SHORT AS WELL. DO YOU HAVE ANY COMMENT ON £/$

london sylhet 17:23 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Stuttgart HW
I AM SHORT AS WELL. DO YOU HAVE ANY COMMENT ON £/$

Stuttgart HW 17:06 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURUSD @ 13304

london sylhet 17:03 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
DO ANY OF YOU THINK £/$ SHORT

Philadelphia Caba 16:59 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Closed longs on eurjpy @ 139.35. Will short if 139.50-140.00 fail.

Minneapolis SD 16:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have an idea on USD/MXN, I'm looking to short it but I'm a bit concerned about that spike into the mid 11.40's last week, what caused that ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:38 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
seems to me cable OK to short

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:35 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
I think In general for today

Currency Short Long
EURUSD 1.3293 1.3186
USDJPY 105.6884 104.7285
GBPUSD 1.9219 1.9064
USDCHF 1.1690 1.1572
EURCHF 1.5410 1.5351
AUDUSD 0.7613 0.7528
USDCAD 1.2387 1.2263
NZDUSD 0.7129 0.7038
EURGBP 0.6936 0.6902
EURJPY 139.8529 139.0262
GBPJPY 202.5745 201.0824
CHFJPY 91.0763 90.4689
GBPCHF 2.2319 2.2173
EURAUD 1.7697 1.7544
EURCAD 1.6367 1.6233
AUDCAD 0.9325 0.9231
AUDJPY 79.7896 79.1214

Stuttgart HW 16:34 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
I agree with dallas, recent events have shown again and again that the market is controlled by these events for only a short period of time, later on there are gonna some big fishes eating up such easy money

Syd 16:32 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Honeywell CFO said to possibly Repatriate Up To $2.6B Intl Profit

Los Angeles ss 16:24 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- what is your view now on cable?

london sylhet 16:21 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK may i have your advice on eur/usd i am [email protected] 13298

Gen dk 15:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Some good R & B is coming up now

Sofia NYK 15:38 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Dont make the same mistake as on Friday , friend! Euro and GBP should be up again to the end of the session!

jkt-aye 15:33 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP what do you think of placing stp at 1.3315 on eur short ?

jkt-aye 15:28 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
thought usjy is sell from here tgt 104.25 stp 105.10 or long from 104.25 stp 104.00 tgt 104.90. GL

Dallas GEP 15:23 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Ranges generally are quite narrow right now but a sell on the EURO around the 1.3285 level shouild work OK. GBP is a little more bullish so shorts on that should be around 1.9200/05 but quite frankly might not quite get there

Quebec Swap 15:17 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Anyone gone long Usd/Jpy?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:12 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd A 15:04 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR-USD - hhmmm - What to do? Caught in an intraday band of 1.3245 to 1.3300. Tone of dailies & weeklies is heavy and last week saw the first black candle for 12-weeks... My bias favours selling in the upper end of the 1.3245 to 1.3300 band... but while above 1.3245 I'll be nervous of a sharp probe toward 1.3345/60.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:49 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:45 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
aussie might go to .7430 area

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:40 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
maybe 250 points for cad from 1.2350

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:38 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
aus/cad should do a 200 point drop

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:29 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
aussie cad short

HK Kevin 14:28 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, how explosive the USD/CAD would be if the top 1.2320 is taken out?

Gen dk 14:25 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:24 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:19 GMT December 13, 2004
minimum target for cad is 1.2440/80.GT

could be right...I am Just not sure!!

slv sam 14:19 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
minimum target for cad is 1.2440/80.GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:16 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Cad Must be a sell at 1.2350 area

Hong Kong Qindex 14:08 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Consolidate between 1.3241 - 1.3281 for the time being. The odds are in favour of taking short position.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:01 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Looking a lot like the market is holding this consolidation pattern for later data. On eur/usd pair the resistance (3300-20) has held so far giving the intraday indicators a chance to unwind from the O/S area. No buying on my system until this correction is over IMHO. GL GT

dc fxq 13:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
and maybe ...

It seems all economic data are showing an extremely positive economic development for EMU into the next year???

Pecs Andras 13:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 13:44 GMT December 13, 2004
What specific data do you see as extremely negative for the US?

perrie como 13:44 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for my bad english gramma as learning chinese :)

perrie como 13:42 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
It seems all economic data are showing an extremely negative economic development for US into the next year, as underlining the budget tax cuts have done by the Bush government had already lost their effect.

Tomorrows Trade deficit will then show if there will, the US Gov, attain It's desired effect to lower It trough an general US$ depreciation.

If trade deficit will continue to stay this high, say above 50 bios. (note forecasted is 53 vs prior at 51) There will be high likely another sharp round of general US$ cross global selling.

Tallinn viies 13:41 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
downside more favoured if 1,3240/45 doesnt hold.
which I doubt happens.

dc fxq 13:37 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Nov. retail sales up 0.1%; Oct. sales revised up By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. retail sales rose 0.1 percent in November, Commerce Department figures show Monday. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.5 percent. The gains are slightly firmer than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for November retail sales to be flat and for ex-auto sales to increase 0.3 percent. Sales for October were revised higher than initially forecast. Sales rose a revised 0.8 percent in October, much stronger than the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent increase.

Philadelphia Caba 13:32 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Retail Sales Up Slightly in NOv +0.1%, +0.5% Ex Auto

Dallas GEP 13:21 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Still in 6930 Eur/Gbp shorts

Dallas GEP 13:20 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Cloase last half of euro shorts @ 1.3275 for +20

Frankfurt 13:20 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
What do you think about the EURO/USD today?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP/Yen must wana go to 203 + from 200 area

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:11 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
what U guys think?
I wana put these orders in real account...I did for demo.

Tallinn viies 13:03 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
support at 1,3240/45 held.
now need to take out 1,3295/00 for further gains...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:02 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
aussie looks good too for short

Livingston nh 12:59 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
A December move by Fed is not a usual practice but tomorrow looks like a lock - a 1/2 point move is not on the radar screen but it might be a good time for the Fed to build the cushion a little faster -- G'span attributed "soft patch" to high oil (that disappeared last meeting) so does the Fed see the recent drop in price as restoring consumer buying power? - the 10 yr and 5 yr yields are lower than when the Fed started so the Fed needs to move those rates back up a little bit

The October trade deficit may be the peak for this cycle on oil and jump in prev reported import prices - overall trade is slowing (watch business inventory figure)

A weaker USD Tuesday Morning and a stronger USD by afternoon

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:58 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
short term trading levels and Trend.. 60 mintes Data

chf is good for long

Currency Short Long
EURUSD 1.3288 1.3213 Hold Hold
USDJPY 105.2878 104.6297 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9202 1.9094 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1620 1.1545 Hold Buy
EURCHF 1.5370 1.5330 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7591 0.7531 Sell Hold
USDCAD 1.2296 1.2223 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7123 0.7060 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6929 0.6905 Hold Hold
EURJPY 139.4103 138.8462 Hold Buy
GBPJPY 201.5268 200.5922 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.7909 90.3673 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2229 2.2136 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7560 1.7470 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6289 1.6204 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9301 0.9234 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 79.5729 79.1008 Sell Hold

Philadelphia Caba 12:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone!
Still keeping long eurjpy, bought more @ 139.05 for another test 140.00.

Munich 12:07 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD!!!

BRISBANE PCD 12:05 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Long usd/jpy 104.94. Stop 104.84.

Gen dk 11:49 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 11:36 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Well a new week and the music has not stop yet for my style of trade.....tug of war now happening between dollar bull and bear. I really don't care who is right or wrong, I just play the trend...like now long gbpusd from 1.9131 waiting to have my 10-15 pips before I decide to collect or let it run...ok out at 1.9161...+30...more than I expect and possibly short a bit higher soon...this is a trading day!! Tonight the music may also up a notch. Still not much earth shattering data to knock the USD for 6....risk is still on the long for other currency..imvho of course..but then I have been saying for 2 weeks....Great 2 weeks...now 3rd great week ????

Eilat Dolphin 11:31 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Martin/ Thanks, I'll check the 4H candels of the Kiwi and see how its stocks matures.

BTW, this formula might interest some around:

EUR/USD - 4 H candels- the last six tousand hours- stoch set at 14,4,4.

Once the trend gets above 33 or below 66, the same trend will continue twice more often than reverse... (without taking any news into account!)
Corrolary: this takes some wind out of a linear reading of the 2 hours charts, imo.

BRISBANE PCD 11:09 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Aussie short stopped at .7582. Re-enter, short AUD/USD .7574. Stop .7582

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:01 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
gbp/yen...will be the test today...;)

gold coast martin 10:52 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 10:46 GMT December 13, 2004
lol....word mastery has always been one of your strongest traits....btw....kiwi will do a volta south by thursday ......g/t

Budapest Daniel 10:49 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Just sent it out... Can you check pls.?

Budapest Daniel 10:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, I've sent you a mail on Saturday. So you didn't get it... :-/

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Dan...No email...
Can U send again pls..
Thanks

Eilat Dolphin 10:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Within 10 Pips Yes your 09:59 does make sense...

Let me see: a statistical box with the higest probability (when published) in a given timeframe to be mathematically correct, taking into account the most average waves of the FX seas.

Now is this true ?

Your work has some similitude to Quindex' postings, but for the fact that you only publish the sea level and the sky, while he has layers of clouds ?

Dallas GEP 10:43 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd shorts stop is now at BE at 1.3295 on HALF the lots and I TP on the other half at +25

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:35 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Budapest Daniel 10:30 GMT December 13, 2004
//???

Hong Kong Qindex 10:31 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 10:31 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Is Poised to Extend Rebound, Survey Shows

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aTBh9EHrTm78

Budapest Daniel 10:30 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain, did you check your mail?

BRISBANE PCD 10:24 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Short AUD/USD .7575. Stop .7582.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:22 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
fxxcm demo
FX5M120909
Pass:Forum
20% in a week
using the levels
Sure is tempting

Dallas Mauricio 10:17 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
I am done for the day after making my daily goal. Good luck to all & I will see you tomorrow.

beirut jb 10:16 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:59 GMT

hi mate,

well all major currecies but gbp turned down friday and they r
in correction mode now, weekly trend still up for all of them

so we may c consolidation here with south bias until euro hit 12970, jpy 107 etc....then pairs should resume up unless weekly reverse too to south

FWIW

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Last week the dail gave me a figure 106.3 for Yen...
if it's a buy at weekly at 102.20...then maybe do what is lower in time vale if (Buy / Sell)
then PT at least redundent..ie 102.2 area
Maybe...not sure

SAIHAT What_he_found_when_he_lost _you 10:09 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
1.3512 1.3601 R4
1.3418 1.3462 R3
1.3359 1.3376 R2
1.3345 1.3356 R1

EUR
1.3231 1.3232
1.3229 1.3273

1.3112 1.3122 S1
1.3098 1.3115 S2
1.3040 1.3084 S3
1.2945 1.3034 S4

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:08 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
for example cad...
weekly say Hold ...Daily says sell
I guess makes the weekly redundent...something like that..I think!!

Los Angeles ss 10:07 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP, looking at it that way as well. Think it may even break low of London session at some point.

Dallas GEP 10:04 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
1.3295 short with 1.3317 stop EURO

Dallas GEP 10:04 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
1.3295 short with 1.3317 stop EURO

Dallas GEP 10:03 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
well it bounced ppretty good DOWN from it's highs. I am thinking it has made high for London already

Los Angeles ss 10:01 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP -- what is your take on cable for the short term from these levels?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:59 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Traders...does this make sence to any on?
Daily and weekly analysis. TIA

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3437 1.3171 Hold Hold
USDJPY 105.8424 103.5410 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9436 1.9037 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1650 1.1350 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5370 1.5236 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7641 0.7437 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2347 1.2102 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7183 0.6983 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6960 0.6869 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.0897 137.5161 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.3440 199.4092 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.7287 89.8424 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2315 2.1947 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7811 1.7435 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6399 1.6118 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9316 0.9089 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 79.7515 77.9611 Sell Buy


EURUSD 1.3502 1.2899 Hold Hold
USDJPY 107.9751 102.6053 Hold BUY
GBPUSD 1.9499 1.8606 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.2019 1.1260 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5508 1.5181 Hold BUY
AUDUSD 0.7698 0.7269 Hold Hold
USDCAD 1.2546 1.2022 Hold Hold
NZDUSD 0.7214 0.6803 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.7035 0.6789 Hold BUY
EURJPY 142.2824 134.9281 Hold BUY
GBPJPY 206.0368 195.7320 Hold BUY
CHFJPY 92.4949 87.8894 Hold BUY
GBPCHF 2.2707 2.1715 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.8115 1.7240 Hold BUY
EURCAD 1.6615 1.5863 Sell BUY
AUDCAD 0.9407 0.8980 Hold BUY
AUDJPY 80.9097 76.6079 Hold BUY

Hong Kong Qindex 09:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my Quarterly Cycle is 1.3134 - 1.3294 and the mid-point reference is 1.3214. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of Quarterly Cycle


A) : ... // {1.2012} - 1.2172 - 1.2332* - 1.2493 - 1.2653 - 1.2813 - 1.2973* - 1.3134 - 1.3294 // (1.3455) - 1.3615* ...

B.A. BOCA 09:38 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The rise in prices at the U.K.'s factory gates slowed in November, while falling oil prices led to a decline in manufacturers' costs. However, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will be concerned by a strong rise in core factory-gate prices, which rose at their fastest rate since March 1996.

According to figures published by National Statistics Monday, output producer prices rose by 0.1% from October and were up 3.5% from the same month last year.

The annual rate of inflation was unchanged from October, and slightly below expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones last week estimated prices rose by 0.2% on the month and 3.6% on the year.

Dallas GEP 09:34 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
6930 short now on Eur/gbp

B.A. BOCA 09:33 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
not brilliant numbers for the pound..

gold coast martin 09:32 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
wellington am 09:28 GMT December 13, 2004
..yes i have...but in the scheme of things in december ...with funds squaring up,profit taking and further dollar strength ,you will find the correlation between the gold and aussie not as supportive as it is traditionally....g/t

wellington am 09:28 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 09:15 GMT December 13, 2004

Martin, I was thinking the same about the ozzy too, esp. buying against the kiwi. But as for AUD/USD, have you seen the gold chart? If this support lasts, the things coiled up for a potentially huge rally.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:26 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Auckland NZ peat 09:23 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
amazing the variety of opinons
some saying Eur is about to flop
others buying.....
at the moment I'm unclear and on sidelines.
looks kinda bearish to me tho , when it peaked wasnt that a double-top??? they are evil.

gold coast martin 09:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
seel=sell

gold coast martin 09:14 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
HK JR 08:58 GMT December 13, 2004
..In this choppy market aud is a good seel at 7580-90 levels....as well....g/t

Syd 09:04 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
HK JR should see Dollar strength into Monday and early Tuesday thats said anything is possible in this market before christmas.

HK JR 08:58 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
I'm thinking last week was the only time we'll see $ being bid , for a while . The $ bears are back in town . A$ was a good buy this morning , in the low 75's

london sylhet 08:56 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
any body have any comments on $/yen please

Dallas Mauricio 08:55 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Everyone! GL/GT.

Tallinn viies 08:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
keep buying the euro is only idea I have.
first support at 1,3245/50. target first 1,3360/65
cu later

Munich 08:30 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta South: my day just begins. good nicht.

Atlanta-South 08:26 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Munich: Tks, that the first right in several days. Time for sleep. GL.

Munich 08:23 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta South: Very goog decision!

Atlanta-South 08:20 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Munich: I just closed a small long from 1.3261 @ 1.3282 & will stay flat unless down movement continues. Tks for your thoughts. GL GT.

Antwerp Tom 08:18 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello GEP! GL and good trades today
What you make out of the lack of down gap in €/$?

Munich 08:18 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   

EURO/USD 3 Years trend SECOND RESIST at 1,3470-1,3500
3 Years trend FIRST RESIST at 1,45xx
The EURO will go to 1,3100and then to 1,2850. In the next 2 to 4
weeks we`ll see a side trend.

Dallas GEP 08:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends.

Munich 08:11 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South! I am short at 1.3269, after the EURO touched the resist at 1,3290.
I am sure, the currency will go down in the next 2 or 3 days. Perhaps after the
economy news on thursday and wednesday.

Atlanta-South 08:00 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Munich:@ 1.3270 do u think its down again to 1.3100 or what do you see. thks

Bruxville Jim 07:58 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
"GBP positive news coming out today"

???

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:56 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 07:15 GMT December 13, 2004
better we chat in yahoo messenger now. I am waiting you now.

B.A. BOCA 07:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss // can't predict the future, mate. just trade reaction.

GBP positive news coming out today, though, so upside looks better bet for now.

gl

Munich 07:50 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD Sell at 1,3260 - 1,3280.

manila stubbs 07:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA 07:44 GMT December 13, 2004

a break of which will target what in your point of view? TIA

Los Angeles ss 07:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Boca -- do you think cable will break up, or reject for this next attempt in the 9180 area?

B.A. BOCA 07:44 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
watch the break in cable carefully.

B.A. BOCA 07:25 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
hourly downtrend resistance line on cable rejected another stab at it today, now sitting around 9180...

got to love her majesty, has been perfectly tradable so far...

gl

B.A. BOCA 07:17 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
good day all..

Honeywell (NYSE: HON) today announced that it has reached agreement with the board of directors of Novar plc on the terms of recommended Offers for the entire issued ordinary and preference share capital of Novar.

The Offers will be made on the basis of 185 pence per Novar ordinary share and 103.625 pence per Novar convertible preference share. In addition, holders of Novar ordinary shares will be entitled to retain a final 2004 dividend of
6.6 pence per share. The aggregate value of the Offers is GBP 1.2 billion (US $2.4 billion) fully diluted for the exercise of all outstanding options, including the assumption of approximately GBP 300 million (US $580 million) of outstanding debt, net of cash. The Novar board has unanimously recommended the Offers.

Los Angeles ss 07:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Raden -- last chart you posted was not too clear, can't quite make it out.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:07 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Just added the posted levels in the demo account...
might think that there are many orders in there...
(40 now with 1 lot each)...with 5000$?...Might think I crazy with the margin...
No so..
if the invetory of orders are kept < .01* equity...then used margin will never be less then 90%..
I got up to 52 orders in there in total.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 07:04 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles ss 06:47 GMT December 13, 2004
please remember my chart !! how my line work for you. you will get the answer why gbp/usd buyers action at level 9133 now?.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:59 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Sing //
I think You are perfectly right!!

Singapore Kingpin 06:57 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
The euro is gearing itself for the most staggering decline since its conception. the current 1.32xx will soon be history for a few years. join the dollar train.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:55 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
euro is sell for a couple of days for sure...most likely this is the top level

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:51 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
www.fxxcm.com
remove one x

Hong Kong Qindex 06:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Los Angeles ss 06:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
raden -- how about gbpusd?

ca zk 06:43 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
bahrain,

what is the website address? for fxxcm. thanks

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:42 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
SG Kan 05:56 GMT December 13, 2004
my resistant is my sell level .
1.3289

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:39 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
houston st 06:37 GMT December 13, 2004 /
Yes I do...and I do the same in the live one.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:37 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
BKK/
Those levels are for the auto system
FX5M120909
pass:forum
in fxxcm demo
the auto system has to have these conditions depending on the level (General)...those orders stay in
as far as day trading it is a sell here with me here

houston st 06:37 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   

BAHRAIN -- do you trade a live acct too?...gl/gt.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:36 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Usd/chf
Level buy : 1.1536 – 1.1501 – 1.1469
Level sell : `1.1789 – 1.1871 – 1.2149 – 1.2237 – 1.2293


raden mas

BKK Umm 06:32 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain you just said EUR is a very strong short, then you say hold or sell @1.3437 I'm a bit confused what do you mean sell now or sell 1.3487.

EURUSD 1.3437 1.3171 Hold Hold

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:27 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
doing these orders today
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3437 1.3171 Hold Hold
USDJPY 105.8424 103.5410 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9436 1.9037 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1650 1.1350 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5370 1.5236 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7641 0.7437 Hold BUY
USDCAD 1.2347 1.2102 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7183 0.6983 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6960 0.6869 Hold BUY
EURJPY 140.0897 137.5161 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.3440 199.4092 Sell BUY
CHFJPY 91.7287 89.8424 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2315 2.1947 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7811 1.7435 Hold BUY
EURCAD 1.6399 1.6118 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9316 0.9089 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 79.7515 77.9611 Sell BUY

manila stubbs 06:25 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
We have seen similar pattern of the DLR/YEN"s movements in the past. MOF could be using some devoted fund accounts to buy the pair, and this time to stabilize the pair above 105, like it tried at 112/115. Usually the mkt gives up after failure to recover thru the key level (eg 105), but then the authority stand firm to eventually clear the level. In such actions the mkt needs to be surprised by the move, thus forcible rally always takes place. This usually has 2-3 days or a week impact. There seems to be few short positions left in the mkt regarding this pair. Watch out for next collapse.

-Informa Global Markets

anyone want to comment on this?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:11 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Now euro is a sell...very strong

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:05 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
checkout the return on FXXCM account (demo)
FX5M120909
Pass: forum
Now that's an automtic trading system

SG Kan 05:56 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas
Do you see euro gaining further in the euro session? what are your resistance level for euro/us for today? TIA

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 05:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
hello..
Level Teknikal 13 Desember 2004
Eur/usd
Level buy : 1.3117 – 1.2993 – 1.2814 – 1.2686
Level sell : 1.3289 – 1.3314 – 1.3354 – 1.3418

GBP/usd
Level buy : 1.8966 – 1.8860
Level sell : 1.9210 – 1.9254 – 1.9295 – 1.9365 – 1.9423

Aud /usd
Level buy : 0.7355 – 0.7301 – 0.7257 – 0.7154
Level sell : 0.7570 – 0.7593 – 0.7652 – 0.7689

Usd/jpy :
Level buy : 104.71 – 104.10
Level sell : 106.29 – 106.89 – 107.44 – 108.29 – 109.44

Gold :
Level buy : 430.88 – 422.39 – 419.20
Level sell : 443.66 – 447.66 – 450.49

raden mas

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:43 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
BTW so far the resistance is holding for eur/usd as the resistance (3300-20) has held off the intraday bullish move so far. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:40 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
tk jf 04:34 GMT December 13, 2004
Could care less about playing roulette but I like to have the % on my side when I invest my money.

San Diego DC 04:57 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Springdale BDH ,
Thanks.

tk jf 04:46 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
1.3265-70 was bit of a level so some buying now its broken up to that 1.3310 level but dont particularly want to buy eur for long posn into fed rate hike personally

Syd 04:39 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
tk jf problem is BOE have been shooting their mouths off again, and putting fear into the market.

tk jf 04:34 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
omil i cudnt take you to roulette table as there wudnt be enuff numbers for you to bet on

tk jf 04:31 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
syd seems to be a day by day flow thing - not sure you can get a really good view from this sort of activity

honolulu Byron 04:29 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Short term EURUSD, short @ 1.2380, target for 1.30xx... stop loss @ 1.3310 and reverse long for 1.35. my 2cents view. :)
http://fxtradercenter.com/ftopicp-226.html#226

Springdale BDH 03:47 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 02:57
Concur with your bullish shortterm EUR/USD viewpoint.

houston st 03:13 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   

SWAP -- if you're around tonite it's good to see the eur$ giving you some relief...now need a clear break of 1.3350/60 area to give a retest of the high...good trades this week...

Sydney 03:10 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Can see the USD struggling now into the year

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:00 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:45 GMT December 13, 2004
For eur/jpy the indicators on the dailies are turning bearish but long term I see this pair bullish until key and main supports are taken out by the bears. Intraday indicators are in a correction pattern for now and this is what I wrote earlier about the pair so as along as we are in the correction I would wait to buy to see how far the correction goes. Now it all depends on what trading style you have that will dictate the positions you will take. We are in the mist of a correction and I don’t usually like the contra trading although if done correctly can yield good pips IMHO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:30 GMT December 12, 2004
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. For the eur/jpy pair I believe it is still in a bullish pattern with some retracement coming up on it as the indicators unwind. Immediate support for this pair is 139.00-10 and a key support is 137.50-60 with support T/L around the 137.00-10 area IMHO. GL GT

San Diego DC 02:57 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$
It is bullish not bearish for short-term position trading IMHO, a bottom was made in EUR during the Dec10-12 time cycle on Friday.

nyc sa 02:45 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Hi Omil ,could u plz give ur view on eur/jpy ? is it time to short or buy the dips ? thnx

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
toronto drunken kat 02:08 GMT December 13, 2004
We are still in a bullish trend and holding pattern there are some key and main supports that must be taken out before the trend changes for the eur/usd pair. I believe we are in a correction phase for the $ and until those key and main supports are taken out we will see the bulls in control again for a test of the 3500-30 (my main target) IMHO. GL GT

toronto drunken kat 02:08 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:30
hi there ]
OMIL do u think euro will make another top?

sg kan 02:01 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips
Do you see Euro a good short at this level? Please advise. Thanks

Tokyo IM 01:53 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
KL KL// I think BOJ finaly knocked down the gates of the Emperor palace, so he gave them other (secret) password. It was a very smooth turn, I liked it a lot. GL GT

Syd 01:48 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD has been weakest of all dollar bloc currencies in USD short-covering rally . Expect ongoing test to downside near term with target of 0.7400 in first instance; if breaks, could move toward 0.7250-7350. In this environment, prefers selling rallies; will take close above 0.7700 to alleviate downside bias
NAB

Syd 01:35 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar May Fall on Concern Price of Gold Will Extend Its Slide...bloomberg

KL KL 01:34 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
IM - Looks like BOJ somehow found the password and tricked the world that it was lost. So nice the trick that no many noticed the interventioned...very smooth and orderly...no sudden spike...very cooly the type the magic word which by now should be rather familiar to BOJ.. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:32 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Key support for eur/usd has changed from 3170-80 to 3140-50 for now.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:30 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
The eur/usd pair is ranging for now around the resistance (3250-80) and support (3170-80) as the intraday indicators unwind and turn bullish. The daily’s have turned bearish giving this pair a bearish sentiment and as long as resistance (3300-20) holds the bears will be compelled to at least test the key support. Here are the updated numbers on my charts.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3250-3280, 3300-20, 3350-60, 3380-3400, 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3400-30 and 3290-3300 Support T/L 3020-30.
Support is around the 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3040-60 for now key support is around the 3170-80 area IMHO. GL GT

SAIHAT What_he_lost_when_he_found_you 01:29 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR

May see 1.3280 or 1.3310 as high

and may not

Ldn 01:15 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD retains soft bias this week after last week's break below uptrend line from September; drop to 0.7402 support (50% retracement of rise from September low) wouldn't be surprising, and in coming weeks fall as far as uptrend line from August 2002 (now 0.7050) conceivable
rts.

Atlanta-South 01:10 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Is the EURO about to start that turn SOUTH we are all expecting? Seems 1.3250 is a strong resistance. Any other thoughts?

SAIHAT What_he_lost_when_he_found_you 00:56 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP

may see high...1.9182 or 1.9244

Syd 00:23 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Tanigaki says will act against 'strange' fx moves
(Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki reiterated on Sunday that authorities would take action against irregular moves in the currency market.
"If there are some strange movements, we will act promptly," he told a television programme.

The ministry, which controls currency policy, has repeatedly said that it was ready to act as needed against sudden and speculative movements.

The yen touched a five-year high of 101.83 yen per dollar last week and was last at around 104.98 yen.

Japanese authorities have refrained of late from the active intervention to weaken the yen that saw them spend some 35 trillion yen ($334 billion) between January 2003 and March this year, but have kept up their verbal warnings of possible action.

Tanigaki added that he believed the U.S. economy was faring well relative to the economies of Japan and Europe, despite the United States having problems such as the size of its fiscal and current account deficits.

He also said he was not too pessimistic about the Japanese economy, despite growth virtually halting in the July-September quarter.

Revised gross domestic product rose just 0.1 percent in real price adjusted terms from the previous quarter. ($1=104.61 Yen)



Rockford BDR 00:22 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello
Newbie here and just wanted some input about developing a day-intraday trading strategy. What do you guys think is the right way to go?
Thanks in advance!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:19 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
might see euro 1.28 this week

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:03 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Yes Dr. Q I see it..
I think Dr. That the crash is euro is already starting

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:00 GMT December 13, 2004 Reply   
Maybe from 1.3250 where the real crash is gonna happen

 




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