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Forex Forum Archive for 12/14/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:57 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
-9 on eur/jpy long and OUT

Dallas GEP 23:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
140.15 long on EUR/JPY

Syd 23:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Australian Leading Economic Index +4.9% In October
A leading index of the Australian economy was at +4.9% in October, up one point from +4.8% in September.
The index of where the economy is headed in the next six to nine months .A coincident index, which is a broad measure of current economic activity, rose 0.7 point to +4.7%, Westpac said Wednesday. Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist, said the index is indicating economic growth in the first half of 2005 will be above trend. "That is consistent with around a 4% annual pace, compared with the 3% we have experienced for most of 2004," he said. "In 2005, domestic demand will slow somewhat, due to a downturn in residential construction and some moderating in consumer spending, although the index is consistent with the slowdown being quite moderate. However, import growth will slow and exports will move to a generally higher trajectory," he said.
Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne University's Institute of Applied Economic & Social Research.

Dallas GEP 23:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
censored=SAXXXO

Dallas GEP 23:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Mike, I dunno really. What I do is I have three separate price feeds up with the censored feed being the quickest of the three. Sometimes the censored feed will take off in a direction and that will give me a slight clue as to the INTIAL movements on the pairs remembering of course sometimes price action will whip the wrong way FIRST and then go the ultimate direction later. It is safest to NOT trade on the intial annoucement. NOW....................there is a reason I think we have seen usd/jpy and eur/jpy and gbp/jpy have gone long today because I THINK expected number is anticipated to be WEAK.

Pecs Andras 23:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
CK
I would also be interested in that trading and money managment stuff of yours.

Antwerp Tom 23:05 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks CK for your concern, your program always welcome TIA

hk ab 22:59 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Ha, the carry side is now on USD/Eur not eur/usd.......

sf mike 22:57 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Up or down GEP? What's the indication for a likely move?

Dublin CK 22:56 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
No worries Tom,

Did i ever send you the real time money management spreadsheet and trading strategy?

I ve been working on them for a couple of months (various versions), ive been too busy at work with first time adoption of IAS/IFRS accounting standards adoption. But hopefully over xmas it will be finished.

How things are working well with you, good to see your still in the game.

Dallas GEP 22:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
OK TANKAN annoucement I guess here in 60 minutes. BAsed on this report the yen pairs could move 100-150 pips so be VERY cautious.

Antwerp Tom 22:50 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
CK, thanks again for all the valuable stuff you mailed me! :-))

SanFrancisco TG 22:47 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
See you all later, thanks. :)

Dublin CK 22:46 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Lads,

Ditto feel the same way, long time reader. Occasional poster - keep up the good work.

GL/GT

Rgds,

CK

Antwerp Tom 22:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
OMIL,TG and humourous Dolphin: i sometimes feel guilty enjoying your comments and insight 'cause i don't have them to share with ...OMIL keep posting your levels TIA guys and GL GT

SanFrancisco TG 22:33 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin - Definately appreciate his input and yours too. I'm trying to force myself to pay more attention to the nice people (who aren't obsessed with trying to claim the sky is falling in the US) with solid, valuable insight. Add what I can as well.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:33 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks TG just adding my 2 cents worth before it is worth nothing LOL. Thank you for your comments as well not a lot of GVI members comment on this side (that deal with the market anyway). GT

Eilat Dolphin 22:24 GMT December 14, 2004
Thank you for your kind words they are the ones that keep me coming back to contribute to this forex family.

Eilat Dolphin 22:24 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
TG/ Hi! I agree, OMIL is definitely a Wise One.

Syd 22:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand's economy is slowing after three years of strong growth. After estimated growth of about 5% in 2004, New Zealand's gross domestic product will slow to a 2%-2.5% expansion in 2005 before picking up somewhat the following year, economists predict. GDP grew 4.6% in 2002 and 3.4% in 2003. And commodity prices are close to peaking, economists say, after the ANZ Commodity Prices Index hit the highest level in its nearly 19-year history in November. These high prices have helped offset the effect of the rising New Zealand dollar - which hit a 16-year high of US$0.7269 in December. The country's biggest economic risks are external - further Kiwi rises, as well as slowdowns in Japan and the European Union - said Finance Minister Michael Cullen. And the country has two ready "shock absorbers" - an Official Cash Rate at 6.5% and a currency hovering above 70 U.S. cents, both with plenty of room to fall to buoy the economy. DJ

SanFrancisco TG 22:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Omil - valuable insights, thank you for the added perception.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
The eur/usd pair is in consolidation land with two days in a row with higher lows and basically the same high I have to keep in mind that the end of the year and holidays are almost upon us and that will affect the liquidity and movement in the market as well. Gold has reached support and eur/jpy has reached resistance respectively. The key here is who blinks first we have good support around the 3250 area and good resistance around the 3340 area. I will continue to monitor the market and get ready for a break of the resistance to buy eur/usd or wait till the correction is over to buy lower IMHO. GL GT

nyc sa 21:51 GMT December 14, 2004
I have 140.53

Syd 22:10 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Dollar down after RBA comments
LINK

Atlanta-South 21:57 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
NYC:I'm showing 140.54.

nyc sa 21:51 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
anyone has the euro/yen high for the day ?

SanFrancisco TG 21:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Short euros appears to be in vogue after NY from just above the figure. No idea if it sticks.

Syd 21:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
This is what you have to keep your eye on for 05 for a sustained Dollar Rally , but not yet maybe August

Stronger hiring seen
Manpower survey says employers are optimistic about their first-quarter work force plans.

FX market determined to see 140 and test the CBs

Livingston nh 21:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
CB - the idea of a "core" rate is irrelevant to real world contracts and costs - Wage contracts, divorce settlements (alimony and support) and social security etc are based on the CPI -- GDP and income stats are affected by inflation -- so costs and prices are adjusted accordingly // the Fed has been tight with money supply but it still pays to borrow at these low rates - in a sense it subsidizes the oil price and because cost of capital is cheap it penalizes labor (slow job growth)

Halifax CB 20:50 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh - Don't those numbers (for the purposes of the fed rate) have to be broken into those things that might be influenced by the fed rate, and those that aren't? The last inflation numbers ex food & fuel were on the monthly order of 0.2; the big rise was in food & fuel, but one is largely the result of the weather, and the other the result of the Arabs, neither of whom are particularly influenced by the Fed rate...GL/GT

Makassar Alimin 20:50 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
i am somewhat bullish on euro as well at current level, looking at daily chart, we are still above 13 EMA and never succesfully closed below 20 EMA on every past occasion when euro made dips, only a close below 20 EMA will make me rethink

Stuttgart HW 20:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sell USDJPY @ 23:30 if around level 105.34

Syd 20:47 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
US trade gap seen trumping dollar yield advantage
CAN HIGHER YIELDS RESCUE THE DOLLAR?
But would higher U.S. yields entice investors back into dollar assets? Analysts say yes, but only to a point.
"The rate hike and the prospects for further tightening in Q1 could generate more positive capital flows in the short end of the Treasury curve ... and that could generate temporary relief for those who are worried about the sustainability of the trade deficit financing," said Ashraf Laidi, chief currency analyst at censored Financial in New York.
"But while the yield story is advantageous to the dollar, the trade deficit picture in light of dubious foreign inflows into the U.S. is the issue on the table," he said.
Economists expect government data to show the deficit on the current account, the broadest measure of U.S. trade, because it includes investment flows, to have widened to $170 billion in the third quarter from a record $166 billion in the second quarter.To finance that gap, the United States needs to attract some $3 billion in capital every day, analysts said.For many years, central banks, particularly in Asia, have been a major force funding the deficit as they bought huge amounts of U.S. Treasuries with dollar reserves acquired to keep their own currencies weak and exports competitive.
But central banks are widely expected to diversify reserves out of dollars over time. Meanwhile, censored's Laidi notes U.S. equities, which once could be counted on to lure foreign investment, have become less attractive in the last few years.
Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in New York, said that at some point, the yield on U.S. bonds could be high enough to lure foreign investors.
"The question is: 'Are current yields attractive enough?' Probably not," said Franulovich, adding that yields cannot be isolated from the currency outlook.
At a certain point, the dollar may have fallen so far that U.S. assets are viewed as cheap by foreign investors, and flows will head toward the United States. More flows would help support the dollar.But for investors who own U.S. assets now, a falling dollar just erodes the value of their holdings.
"Short-term bond yields can jump another 50 basis points but if the dollar keeps falling it won't attract foreign investors," said Franulovich. "The dollar is just damaged goods and the current account is a major negative in investors' minds."

Link

Munich 20:43 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Thank you guys! I wish you a nice day. GL.

London Alex 20:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
geneva 20:32 - good luck trying to catch that top. Looks like we'll settle over $1.33s today. So much for a euro correction. We are one week into it, and we are only 1.5 cents off the highs...Either we will see another deeper correction like you gentlemen predict, or we've got a few more cents to go northward. In any case, I am glad there is so much dissent about this. If everyone was saying "buy euro" I'd be really worried! Good luck everyone and GT.

geneva 20:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Munich 20:34 GMT December 14, 2004

I agree with you, but must becarfull on a close above 1.3340!!!

Munich 20:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
All explanations are only justifications. Fact is, that the low of the nature intervens right now. The Dollar is waiting for the "right time to fly".

geneva 20:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 20:25 GMT December 14, 2004

The weekly trend started 2001 not yesterday. The momentum is showing a very big divergence with the price. its look very topish to me. Its diffecult to cacth a top but we are not far from. take care.

SanFrancisco TG 20:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Ok nh you win. Sky is falling.

nyc sa 20:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
could someone plz tell me what was the euro/yen high so far ? thnx .

geneva 20:29 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 20:23 GMT December 14, 2004

Its true, CBS are long term player, they can buy euros here
and keep buy more at 1.15, and in 2 years they will sell it at 1.50. If the euro will not fall here trust me, in europe its will be so bad that the euro will disapire by 2008!!!.

Stuttgart HW 20:29 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I did not mean to post twice, and a typo is, I mean that the Dollar will have an awful lot of upward potential!!

Stuttgart HW 20:28 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I agree as well, if the Dollar remains approx at this level during Asian-trade, the London trade session is going to have an awful lot of downward potential tomorrow!

Stuttgart HW 20:28 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I agree as well, if the Dollar remains approx at this level during Asian-trade, the London trade session is going to have an awful lot of downward potential tomorrow!

Livingston nh 20:26 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
TG - in case there is any doubt about inflation - from BLS- " The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 0.6 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment. The October level of 186.5 was 3.2 percent higher than in October 2003"

"During the first ten months of 2004, the CPI-U rose at a 3.9 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of 1.9 percent for all of 2003."

The US government will pay Social Security increases of 2.7% this coming year (based CPI-W) -- all of these figures are well in excess of the Fed Funds rate even with today's hike

London Alex 20:25 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
geneva 20:18 - have you taken a look at a weekly chart lately? FX is all about multi-year trends, and once a direction is established it takes about 2 years of consolidation before they change direction...But short term, perhaps you are right, but you are playing with fire in my view

Munich 20:25 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta: I think is batter to wait until things get more clarer.

London Alex 20:23 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Geneve 20:13 - Yes, but I am not pretending the CBDs are the smartest buyers. Just remember, that just like gold, they have more power than anyone because they have more dollars than anyone. And when the cbd's were selling gold, it crumbled. Likewise now that they are selling dollars, the dollar will crumble. $1.45 was the all-time low versus legacy euro currencies, and the US economy was in far better shape then in terms of deficits and external debt. We'll keep seeing the dollar go down, though I expect there will be a correction at $1.40, before another move lower towards $1.50s

Munich 20:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
The EURO will go up perhaps 50 or 60 points an then turn down in the next 2 to 5 days.

Atlanta-South 20:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Everyone: Lets wait & see.
MUNICH: I'm on the side for now & will be waiting with you. Just in the past EURO was better for me. I know history might not repeat itself in this case. If $ move I'll try & catch the train too. Thanks again.

KL KL 20:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for all the input...my view is that Fed will continue to raise rates till 3 max 3.25...to take care of deficit and trap some foreign funds from going out. I have just shorted some home builders cos that is what I think too. Slowing down in housing is a must...they had a good run ...far too good....not forgetting they are leading economic indicator. DOW have some room to run but I will be shorting them as well simply because everything is really a mess...each will run its course until someone is left holding the bomb...LOL..gl gt

btw my eurusd short still alive..likeholding a bomb after so long and not much movement...LOL

Munich 20:21 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Geneva: You have expressed what I thought.

geneva 20:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 20:15 GMT December 14, 2004

The trade on the euro is not any more up. many indicators are bullish dollar on daily chart. so a faling knife is the other way!!!!

Atlanta-South 20:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
London Alex: I've got to say your right. Over the last 2 months I've made more buying EURO. As it stand now the USD is a risk if buying. The "Falling Knife" is a bad catch. Thanks for your response. GL GT.

Geneve 20:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 20:09 GMT December 14, 2004

Just remmeber CB's sold golg at 270$ , it doesnt mean any thing. they can sell dollar and the dollar will get stronger.

London Alex 20:15 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Geneve 20:13 - you may be right that we won't see $1.40, but we'll get pretty close. I think we'll get into the low 1.39s, just like 1.2929 was the prior peak, this time it will be 1.3930s...

Munich 20:14 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta: do what you think and feel is right for you. I spend more then 12 Hours per day in front of the PC and I am waiting particularly for this movement, which will go down in the next days.

knoxville dan-k 20:14 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
what happens if the dollar keeps falling to a all time low and in the meantime the stockmarket rallies, interst rates rise and no one ownes many dollars except the fed! the dollar is now worth more than other ccys, then the forign banks/investors/speculators step in and start buying dollars in a frenzy to keep from getting left behind---lol

reminds me of the days of SDLI, QCOM, JDSU and many other stocks, get taken to kleeners,

if it works out that way will be a hoot! glgt

Geneve 20:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
detroit bubi 20:08 GMT December 14, 2004

Sell what?, I am a big time buyer of dollars, but I am not a day trader. I will keep then few months. There is a 55% chance that we saw the top, if not anther test , and a small new high. but the 1.40 is not any time soon.

SanFrancisco TG 20:12 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
This is really fun. I've checked some of your archives and see screams for out of control inflation a year ago or longer, its like a broken record. Maybe some day you'll get your wish.

London Alex 20:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South - You are trying to catch a falling knife by buying dollar. A dangerous strategy, especially when the CBDs of china, russia and india are all selling dollars on any rally...any dealers have confirmation on the china rumour?

detroit bubi 20:08 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Totaly agree with you Geneve, that is why I am looking to sell.

Atlanta-South 20:07 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Munich:are you that sure EUR/USD is headed down? I tend to AGREE, but I'm not sure. SEEMS to have up trend desire, but it just want define its direction. Just my observation.

Geneve 20:05 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Fed rise rate- bonds going higher????, stocks move higher???? and
dollar lower????. Franckly its the biggest manipulation I ever seen. or back to school.........

GOES B747 20:02 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
hope that mid air collision (if will happen) will take place above the sea to make sure that ATC will transform into sonars :)

gt

Colorado Chief1Oar 20:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
There are local differences throughout the west, as an an example, in Las Vegas right now, people are buying the home when it is only a hole in the ground and a promise that it will be built. As for California, Washington Oregon, I can't really say. I believe Southern California is still holding up.

Here in Colorado, we are still doing well, but slowing overall.
I wanted to add that interest rates affect more than the homebuyer... they affect the builders and land developers as well.. we all finance through the banks at construction loan rates which are higher than mortgage rates..that affects what we can borrower, and is factored into the price when we go to sell.

Chief

SanFrancisco TG 19:58 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
If the US stock market was as big a doom and gloom horn as some of you in here it would be down 800 points by now after the data. Comically, its up and gaining.

But I won't upset some of you and point out the economy is robust.

London Alex 19:57 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone else heard this rumour about Chinese CBD buying today at the lower levels?

London Alex 19:55 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Chief, thanks for that useful on-the ground feedback. Where was your 350K home located? I believe there are soem disparities between North and South areas on the west coast, is that correct?

Colorado Chief1Oar 19:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 19:48 GMT December 14, 2004

I am certain all of that has impact on the overall economic conditions in our country, I was referencing only the housing industry, particularly in my area of the nation.

I know that in the eastern half of the nation, the housing sales are very poor and have been for quite some time, with the loss of so many manufacturing jobs, and so many other jobs being moved out of the U.S.. Here in the west ,we have been fortunate to have a healthy market, but it is slowing down. (I just sold a $350,000 home that sat on the market for a year. It should have sold in 30 days.)

Chief

London Alex 19:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Given the vast selling euro has endured in the past week, I must admit I find the current euro bid quite surprising; am I alone in this? I was expecting more dollar strength as the Fed effectively affirmed that they think US economy is on track and is not worried about poor jobs creation...

Eilat Dolphin 19:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Carefull here, there is a risk of mid air collision of 747.
Please check ASAP with your ATC for your routing.

ICT ML 19:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 19:34 GMT December 14, 2004

KL.....what Chief said about home building is true.....IF long term rates start rising sharply next year, its over. Right now there should be a flurry of last minute new home buyers trying to get in on the historic low rates....whether or not there are I don't know, depends on the local economies more than anything.

Livingston nh 19:50 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Chief1Oar - home prices are up 8% over last year and rates are lower than June when the Fed started "tightening" -- "inflation is well contained" according to these meatballs // 2.25% is still below inflation

London Alex 19:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Chief - you reference interest rates creeping up, but 30 year's fixed rates remain stable and have even come down some in the past months. I would think that other factors are driving price weakness...such as deflation in the fixed asset money supply (ie, non-adjustable values such as real estate loans, residential and commercial) brought about by unsustainable price/income ratios...

GOES B747 19:44 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
good evening all,

was not 50bps raise, but only 25bps raise; today, FED rates are 125% higher then the lows of only few months ago.

further, do not matter if you buy or sell USD as in both cases you will make money...as long the leverage is not higher than 1:5...read/print Qindex's post of 15:59 GMT

gt all

Colorado Chief1Oar 19:43 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 19:34 GMT December 14, 2004

As a homebuilder, I can say that any rate hike hurts the market some, as the vast majority of buyers are first time homeowners and they are at the mercy of interest rates.

In the west we have had a great market, but we are beginning to see a slow down as the rates continue to creep upwards. This will only add to the slowdown in sales for us, as it means fewer buyers can now qualify for a loan.

Unfortunately, that also translates into a slowdown throughout the entire economy, as housing is the largest industry in the nation, with a rippling effect when sales slow. Lumber employement drops, retail and manufacturing employment drops, housing construction employment drops.. and it goes on and on.

hope that helps..

Chief

Hong Kong B747 19:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
good evening all,

was not 50bps raise, but only 25bps raise; today, FED rates are 125% higher then the lows of only few months ago.

further, do not matter if you buy or sell USD as in both cases you will make money...as long the leverage is not higher than 1:5...read/print Qindex's post of 15:59 GMT

gt all

KL KL 19:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
FATGUY, you think ringgit will unpeg anytime?? A lot of talk lately...I cannot wait to move my tons out once they do it..maybe waiting for KLSE for 1000....maybe I need to buy eurusd till 1.40....LOL

Munich 19:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
NJ: This few points is not what I call an UP movement. It can not frighten me and control my decisions! Stay calm and wait my friend!

dc fxq 19:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 19:34 GMT

by and large the 25 bps has been factored in for some time. also in the same way 3.00% is pretty well factored in.

some slow down in realestate in any case because of seasonal factors, we won't really know until spring I believe

slv sam 19:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 16:55 GMT December 14, 2004
cad getting stronger.. sign for sharply weaker us$ soon?GT

always watch cad for clue!

Los Angeles ss 19:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Views on cable for the rest of this session?

NJ RT 19:37 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Munich 19:31 Just a comment at the fact that EUR cannot go up anymore.

Makassar Alimin 19:36 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
rate hike is history, focus now on tomorrowś TIC data and thursdayś current account balance data

Munich 19:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Wait until tomorrow or Friday.

KL KL 19:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
now in short eurusd at 1.3307..this is the weaker one at the moment until chit chat trichit say up euro rates.

btw..GEP and those from US...does this rate rise put a damper on housing activity, retail spending...which will hurt more..??appreciate your comments

Munich 19:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Manila: That will not happen! And if it will, then only limited!

mamun london 19:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
euro++++++++++

London Alex 19:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Price action starting to look more encouraging for Euro, but selling waves need to be absorbed before move towards 1.3350, not sure if there's enough buying interest to do so...

MEDAN FATGUY 19:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sell all currency against the dollar. Fed hike rate because the US is in bad inflation. Widen gap twin trade deficit is the next top story.

Munich 19:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
NJ: What exactly do you mean?

manila stubbs 19:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Munich 19:21 GMT December 14, 2004

and what will you do for us if it breaks the high today?

Livingston nh 19:28 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
sending a signal? - Fed minutes will be released 3 weeks after the meeting - at least going into the next meeting we should have a better idea of where the members are

NJ RT 19:28 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Munich 19:21 It just DID !!!

London Alex 19:23 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Euro refusing to go down, but too much selling at 1.33s, perhaps we stay right here? Or absorb selling, and then +30 pips?

Pecs Andras 19:23 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
"The one change was that the statement noted, "Output
appears to be growing at a moderate pace, despite the earlier increase in energy
prices, and labor-market conditions continue to improve gradually"

London 19:23 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Munich seriously dont think interest rates are an issue at the moment

Vancouver BC WLV 19:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
On Fed's remarks: Market don't know where to go... probably nowhere.

KL KL 19:21 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Yep and I am out of short at 79 +13...waiting for stop hunt to start working now...I hope reshort higher around the 90//play it ....play it now and play it quick

Munich 19:21 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
There is no chance for the EURO to go up anymore!

London Alex 19:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Statement identical to last one right?

fairfax dlyz 19:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 19:15 GMT

you may be something but I won't say what! LoL

Pecs Andras 19:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
25 bp
same language used in statement

KL KL 19:15 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
dlyz, no for US...cannot wait for fed short eurusd 1.3292...don't care about Greenspan ..I am Greenspan...LOL

SanFrancisco TG 19:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 17:40 - Pretty good post. You touched on some ideas poking at my little mind.

fairfax dlyz 19:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 19:03 GMT December 14, 2004
INFLATION !!!

Do you mean as is UK CPI @ +1.5% this am?

London Alex 19:10 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Euro refuses to break down. On the other hand, looks weak on the upmoves and feels as if a cascade of selling will hit the market on Fed announcement. Still, spec longs in euro are far off the highs we saw weeks ago, and therefore any spec overhang alone cannot be the sole driver of this past week of euro weakness. There must be some real money buying dollars...

Munich 19:06 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
No matter how the FED will decide, the EURO will fall.

Makassar Alimin 19:04 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
it is the comment from FOMC about future plan that could influence the direction of the market, not the rate decision itself

Munich 19:04 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Los Angeles: You should not compare the situations.

sf mike 19:03 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Is there a chance the Feds will keep rates the same?

KL KL 19:03 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
INFLATION !!!

Munich 19:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Stuttgart: Do not jump on the wrong train. Stay calm!

Los Angeles ss 19:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Anyone recall what the USD did after the last fed rate increase for the day?

SanFrancisco TG 18:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Had some euro bids last half hour but market has turned soft again just bits and pieces before the fed. Very interested to see if it sticks.

Stuttgart HW 18:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I did @ 1.3292 but I am on the watch right now! Looks like mabey EUR might get a little more bullish towards 4 PM ET

Munich 18:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Stuttgart, did you sell the eur/usd?

Stuttgart HW 18:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Lets hope the resistance at 1.3297 helps!

Helsinki iw 18:21 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I hope so mate, although I must admit I have been wrong on a few occasions. But then, even the sun has it´s spots.

Munich G.C 18:19 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
HELSINKI you are on the right side. After the FED decision the $ will go up. I sold the EURO @ 1,3270 2 days ago.

Eilat Dolphin 18:15 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
HW/ Yup, but GVI is really getting good; that guy changes submarine every other day, but GVI just keeps blowing him out of the water.

Stuttgart HW 18:10 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I meant that 80% return per months posting...

Stuttgart HW 18:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
LOL, very very inprobable and if not, I want his mail!

KL KL 18:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
NYC, current spread on my various brokers are 3 pips...yes you are right that if it moves by those few pips I am stopped out. Don't forget I also take the few pips on offer quickly if things are not moving fast enough my way. Right now just shorted at 1.9263 out at 55..+8....everyone is still waiting for FOMCA..even though the rise is definite....my broker loves me I make a bit they make a ton on the spread sitting on bum...base on my trading style..gl gt

lon jr 17:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Highest bid ive seen cable is 62

NYC 17:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL. What type of spread do you trade> If it is 5 pips in gbp/usd, then if the bid moves 2 pips to 1.9263, you get stopped out at 1.9268.

Livingston nh 17:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD has flirted with the 21 da sma - if it closes below today (1.3228) it could move below 1.30 before any support shows up -- cable would be next to go

Jkt Rick 17:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
My friends who want to make money, buy euro at market right now 1.3282 for a guaranteed upmove to 1.35 in a few days.

NYC 17:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL. What type of spread do you trade> If it is 5 pips in gbp/usd, then if the bid moves 2 pips to 1.9268, you get stopped out at 1.9268.

KL KL 17:51 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
no way I am letting +2 pips get away..so...gbpusd want to play eh...ok waiting to reshort higher. Hurry up Mr. Span...get on with it or are you stuckin the lift??LOL

KL KL 17:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
shorted gbpusd 1.9261 sl 7 above...someone playing some stop hunt?? also some DOW short at 10636... sl 10651

Helsinki iw 17:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Looks to me that the dollar might strengthen after the FED announcement whatever comes out (25bps, 50 an outside bet). The price action from today indicates that there are still offers above 1,3300 and in good size. Most likely by players who haven´t had the chance to lighten up on their dollar shorts yet. The trade number should have seen the dollar weaken, but the flows are not that way now. Support at 1,3140/50 and resistance at 1,3345/55.

It is the market flows that determine the direction, not the news, eventhough sometimes news can generate flow. Unlikely today though.

IMHO

KL KL 17:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Was gold at 447 some few hours ago or is it my systems playing up?? So waitin for Mr. Greenspan...this is going to be interesting....out of both usdcad short at +2 and eurjpy short at +5....changed mind better wait after the release for some silly train ride both ways!!

Stuttgart HW 17:25 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Long around 1.3230 should be quite stable though for the moment provided that EUR does not show any bull

Dallas GEP 17:25 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Spain, I am not using charts with this right now, Longing and shorting on Euro based strictly on levels. Charts showing DEFINITE short tho so ANY long euro is contra trading

KL KL 17:24 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
short eurjpy 140.28

spain (now) enxorizo 17:23 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
if i'd waited five seconds more..... ;)

spain (now) enxorizo 17:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GEP// your long on €/$ is for wich frame? (because i'm playing shorts from 1.3296 and happy for now)

Dallas GEP 17:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Took the +10 pips on the eur/usd long and got out. Notice that while Euro has been making some new lows there has been little if ANY follow thru. That is why when new low 1.3260 was printed and it stayed there for a few minutes I longed it at that point.

Stuttgart HW 17:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
If the EUR bear doesnt seem to be fully over yet, if the fed raises then that might support it even more

KL KL 17:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
short usdcad 123.87

Amman wfakhoury 17:15 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
yes Lon..would you pls emailed me [email protected] alot

Amman wfakhoury 17:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
long eur/usd

lon jr 17:07 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Have interesting euro technical info (historical)..anyone need it e mailed?

Stuttgart HW 17:03 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Holding USDCAD long and short as of now, awaiting 7 o'clock results...

Dallas GEP 17:02 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Longed euro 1.3263

Halifax CB 17:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Though I've been strongly favoring EURJPY recently; I've close my long positions & think it best to wait to a consolidation, probably in the mid to low 139's, to get back in.
Similarly for CAD, I think it has 50-100 pips downside potential (but not enough for me to short it) from it's peak, maybe to the mid to low 1.23's; i.e back to it's trendline...

Stuttgart HW 16:59 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the Comments, theyll sure help me!

sofia anmart fx 16:58 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
10:38 GMT December 10, 2004
GBP/JPY-201.82. We buy for 203.85.

slv sam 16:55 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
cad getting stronger.. sign for sharply weaker us$ soon?GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
cable/yen short...Just a while ago from auto system

sofia anmart fx 16:51 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD-1.2382. Support at 1.2365 for 1.2475.

tk jf 16:49 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
its not so much eurusd trading as it is yen crosses right now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Leave cad short for a week...You will be happy man!!! ;)

Stuttgart HW 16:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have comments on USDCAD, I am short @1.2385

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:44 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I Guess Euro want's to drop for a while
then up throughout dec

sofia anmart fx 16:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP -0.6905. The pair is a sell for 0.6875 and 0.6860.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EurLongMom.gif
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EurShortMom.gif
50 day forecast for euro momentum

Gen dk 16:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sofia anmart fx 16:33 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD-1.3275. The pair is a sell for 1.3245 at least.

London Zappy 16:30 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
//sofia anmart fx 16:28 GMT
That makes no sense! Are you also on the "whacky backy" (as we used to call it) :)

GOES B747 16:29 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
sofia anmart fx 16:28 GMT December 14, 2004

imo, you would make more if you will sell @ 1.2750-1.2890
take the time for the 1.3575 ride...looks premature now.

gt

sofia anmart fx 16:29 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD-1.3275. The pair is a sell for 1.3245 at least.

sofia anmart fx 16:28 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD-1.3275. The pair is a sell for 1.3545 at least.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
nyc
Don't blow Your account to the wind dude...
I don't do drugs...maybe I should!! LOL

Hong Kong Qindex 16:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:10 GMT - Thank you!

Hong Kong Qindex 16:19 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 16:11 GMT - EUR/USD : It seems to me that the action is taking place now.

nyc j.holmes 16:17 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye 16:05 GMT December 14, 2004
Bahrain...re your chart, is it in gmt ?

...YES IT IS....GMT=GRASS MODE TIME!!!...I dont know what you are smoking Bahrain but it seems awfully good....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:17 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
what do u guys say?

Dallas GEP 16:15 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Well Eur/JPY short stop got taken -10

GOES B747 16:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex,

warm greetings to you from frozen Netherlands.
are we before actual execution of the spoken attack on the prices as mentioned?

tia and gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Time of the chart is NY EST

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:10 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q
The chart is for the p(t)/p(t-1) index
which is the the momentum index
when P(t)/P(t-1)...starts peaking...with lagging time series...means at that time it's a sell for sure without a price value..
That system tries to estimate the index change...rather the index it self

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
140.20 short on EUR/JPY

jkt-aye 16:05 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain...re your chart, is it in gmt ?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:04 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:58 GMT - I am not familiar with your series. It takes a long time before one can trust a system. One can easily see that a high statistical confidence can not easily apply to the forex market.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:04 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
15 more hours dudes...not now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
It will happen asian session

Hong Kong Qindex 15:59 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following series


... // 1.2836 - 1.3081* - 1.3327 // ...


can be expanded into the following :-


... // 1.2836 - 1.2959 - 1.3081* - 1.3204 - 1.3327 // ...


Further expansion can be carried out as follow :-


... // 1.2836 - 1.2898 - 1.2959 - 1.3020 - 1.3081* - 1.3143 - 1.3204 - 1.3266 - 1.3327 // ...








Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:58 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q
Could U see this?
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EurMomentum.gif
I think the sell off is even further then last stated

Hong Kong Qindex 15:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:54 GMT December 14, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle (13/12) are as follow :-


... // 1.2836 - 1.3081* - 1.3327 // ...

slv sam 15:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:19 GMT December 13, 2004
minimum target for cad is 1.2440/80.GT

short term traders advised to sell at above level for quick profits...but longer term we have cad reversal for sure (almost!).GT

hk ab 15:51 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
cad breaks 1.24..
gd night.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:44 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
sell euro there...pleanty of time
Tue 12/14 08:30 PM
Tue 12/14 09:00 PM
Tue 12/14 09:30 PM
Tue 12/14 10:00 PM
Tue 12/14 10:30 PM
Tue 12/14 11:00 PM

tk jf 15:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
syd - yr tokyo earthquake story killing 16-18 k not inspiring sound sleep tonight -- think audcad>9400=sell personally

Hong Kong Qindex 15:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
DJIA : The market is negative if it is trading below 10600.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:26 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Might be the one intended for the account equity

HK Kevin 15:24 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 15:17 GMT, thank you.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:24 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
fxtrader20004
U have an extra zero there!!!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:09 GMT December 14, 2004
I thought that was not permitted in your country ...lol////
LOL..they think it's not...
I bet everyone here...has that correlation...
wives/ Husbands can smell money through that...LOL

Next might be Viagra for Traders (only when lossing)
Don't use if made money!!
Might be very dangerous to your health

GOES B747 15:17 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Kevin // currently I am standing below 1:3...saod enough?!

gt

HK Kevin 15:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747, just a curosity. Are you trading on margin?

gold coast martin 15:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:09 GMT December 14, 2004
I thought that was not permitted in your country ...lol////

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Highest selling book...Might have a title..
"How to keep sex going with trading anything"...

vienna big al 15:12 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:26 GMT December 14, 2004
slv sam 14:21 GMT December 14, 2004

within less then 5HRS will will know; do you think that FED hike of 50bps may put 1.3360/70 under fire?

its good to now some many non-us sources have such privy information into the Fed or have they been talking to John Berry?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
High correlation between sex and Profits...
Sex Frequency=f(Profits)

Dallas GEP 15:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Got out at +10 on eur/jpy SHORTS. Don't trust jpy pairs much today!!! All are bullish

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:06 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
sleep time audio might a good idea...with REM chart
show the video + Multi media...etc...for school kids
"see this what trading does"

GOES B747 15:05 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Tom // I see EUR/USD breaking over 1.35/36 only during the first 2-3 months of 2005; frankly speaking, I cannot wait till ECB/FED/BOJ will make money for us somewhere between 1.43-1.47...real and big money.

regarding the meder in Antwerp, I understood that the dead guy had friends that were not part of the 36 and he was not a 613 filler :)

gt

Chicago Irish 15:03 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Martin:To be fair Otto was very good in A Fish called Wanda.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Have dube it with some stuff
...Like a chart of the pair (right side of screen) + PL Statments (Left)
Maybe a chart of heart Beat Per second...some place...

Dallas GEP 15:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
140.08 short on eur/jpy

GOES B747 15:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
viktor // I am not sure about 50bps, heard an Israeli banker saying in public that chances for 50bps hike were over 50%

not happy with the current EUR/JPY spot price, but do not see a problem for me as price of 170-175 will start to make me worry...my target for EUR/JPY is below 120/- and I will take the time to get there.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:56 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Home Movie...documentray Purposes sort of Video

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
if U have a web cam...I sugest U video Yourself on this day (Just Your face)...for future traders...play that video for classes in Trading..LOL

prague viktor 14:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 ..dear mate why ur so sure from the 0,5rate hike if will be so IMO only 0,25..and what usay about eur/yen 140 long time no seen ..G/T

Antwerp Tom 14:50 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
B747, this 50 bps hike story is there to create some movement, it's not very conceivable for the FED to do this (not a measured pace and definitely no Xmas present for the consumer), so imho since 25bps already factored in you need a new story to make the announcement somehow interesting, hence the 50 bps hike tale... GL GT

praga jan 14:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
was there any stops cleaning?what do you think guys?thanx.

slv sam 14:36 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 14:26 GMT /
I agree!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:36 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
auto orders
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3437 1.3168 Hold Hold
USDJPY 106.0104 103.6991 Sell Hold
GBPUSD 1.9431 1.9030 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1689 1.1389 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5420 1.5287 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7687 0.7480 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2390 1.2146 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7196 0.6994 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6964 0.6871 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.4475 137.9958 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.5821 199.6881 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.5907 89.7586 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2378 2.2019 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7718 1.7355 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6460 1.6175 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9402 0.9171 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 80.3385 78.5412 Sell Buy

gold coast martin 14:33 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 14:31 GMT December 14, 2004
lol...the way to where irish?..the soup kitchen perhaps//////

Paris MAXX 14:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Just gone long Euro/yen at 139.95...bit toppish?

Chicago Irish 14:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Waiting for Berlin Otto to show us the way .......

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:27 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
wow lot of positions went through..
Short cad, Aus/Cad, Eur/cad,Aus/Yen..
I guess the auto system likes cad cad these days

GOES B747 14:26 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:21 GMT December 14, 2004

within less then 5HRS will will know; do you think that FED hike of 50bps may put 1.3360/70 under fire?

gt

Atl TJ 14:25 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:09 GMT December 14, 2004

I am sitting here trying to decide wether to play the range game or the breakout game or Euro and Cable. Tough call. Read some where (don't recall) this morning that a US Name took a large position pre-report, got the number they were expecting, but not the reaction. Been there - done that. Now I try to avoid it. If this is true they may square that thing if it does not perform for them.

slv sam 14:21 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
if euro/$ can not reach 1.3350/60 and close there today ...we may see 1.31 level tomorrow imho.GT

Tallinn viies 14:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
as I said earlier levels 1,3275-95 offers great opportunity to add long positions. imho

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 13:59 GMT December 14, 2004
That is how I feel about it too and the market is still wanting the $ stronger for now. Need to see how far the push goes after the smoke clears IMO.

Atl TJ 13:59 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sometimes the key thing to watch is not the report numbers or the expectations but instead watch the reaction to the expectations. It will show what the mood of the market. Over the next few hours as traders take and square positions will be intersting to watch. Same with post fed reaction.

Minnesota U-Genius 13:59 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 13:57 , thanks a lot,
I got stopped out on my possie,
So mad at myself now. Should've had my stop higher.
GT to all

Pecs Andras 13:57 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Minnesota U-Genius 13:55 GMT December 14, 2004
9287/92 on my platform

GOES B747 13:55 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
deficit: countries that widened the trade deficit with USA are actually the countries that received huge investments from US names during the recent years; Japan from other hand has a narrowing trade deficit with USA.

when profits from those investments calculated the deficit actually went down (US investments in S-Korea's automobile industry bringing serious profits for the moment!), will this $$$ return to USA is another story but bottom line is that US names are the biggest profit makers out the deficit.

this is how I understood the news after reading them.

gt all

Sing GD 13:55 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Microsoft is nearly 300 Bio USD , so they can fund it for a few quarters LOL ...

Minnesota U-Genius 13:55 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone pls tell what was the high on GBP/USD this morning, asap,
TIA

Dublin Flip 13:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Kingpin I would have thought that actually highlights how bad it is.
55Bio is a half a percent of the 11trillion dollar stock market every month.
ie a third of the stock market over five years.
Microsoft one quarter. GE the next-LOL

vienna big al 13:49 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
AUS/Melb 13:35 GMT

keep on selling my friend, you will becoime a latter day dot com millionaire if you follow that philosophy

sofia anmart-fx 13:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY-105.05. the pair is a buy for 105.40 at least.

GOES B747 13:47 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
kingpin // taking down company valued as microsoft every month seems to be a good idea to wipe the deficit :)

gt all

Gen dk 13:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore Kingpin 13:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
what is 55 billion, microsoft is worth three times more than that..lol.

GOES B747 13:43 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
ab // singing birds do not fight.

Sing GD 13:38 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Seems from reaction , mkt maybe looking at Fed and saying increase in interest rates will affect mkt and maybe Carry trades.

USD above EUR , would be cost to carry EUR long and mkt is long ...

Interesting , well will lose my 10 pips or so , so be it .. look again .. GL all

hk ab 13:37 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
747//It's hard for me to believe there're no early birds fighting for a piece 50 bps news.

AUS/Melb 13:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
This number just out is pretty horrendous for the dollar
FOr all the Doll bulls- why the Euro very only 130 points or so away from its highs despite the hit it took? Is the DOll yen going to take a big dive soon seeing where Euro yen and the Euro are sitting? My guess Doll yen is close to another sell again.

hk ab 13:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Watch the dancing goose.

Syd 13:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sep Trade Gap Revised To $50.93B From $51.56B

US Posts $55.46B Oct Trade Deficit; Consensus $53.60B

Sing GD 13:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
USD 55.5 Bio , new record ...sell USD ? Reaction muted
Stop to 10 pips below entry .. GL all

GOES B747 13:27 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
senior aid of Al-Zarqawi will not plan/take out terrorist attacks in this world; he was not brave enough to stand some bullets.

Source: Iraq's PM in charge

gt all

Ltn th 13:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
IMHO the RBA statement makes for a secure climate for real money equity investment that likes the idea of a growing business and profits rather than an issusionary inflation based profit that is a prime consequence of a high interest rate regieme. The only losers are those pirates who rely on inflation to repay their working equity capital. Seems like the notice has been hung out. Real business welcome enrons not!

Ltn th 13:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Straight from the horses mouth!
"If the pressure increases then I would imagine you could expect us to, in due course, and in a measured way, one day do as you would expect (raise interest rates presumably)," Mr Stevens said. accorsing to breaking news in www.theaustralian.news.com breaking news.
Apparently the market is being warnes that the RBA might well consider, in the fullness of time, raising rates again in the next year or two. Seems their last effort rattled their teeth a bit.

Livingston nh 13:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
G'span is a lame duck and some of the FOMC folks might consider 50bps - inflation was 2.7% into OCT (soc sec increase and wage contracts) so Fed is still behind - in a normal business cycle (or LTCM emergency) the Fed should have at least a 2% cushion of cuts available - G'span recent tightening pattern has been 12 mos ('94 and '99) so 1/4 point moves only get us to 3% in May (still cheap) // so today would be a good day for 50 bps or a much harsher statement

lon jr 12:37 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sorry not a hells chance on 50 bps...controlled or gradual increase only

GOES B747 12:06 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
just heard a banker (Israel's second largest bank) claiming that 50bps hike tonight has chances higher than 50%; any ideas if his words based on insight or just blah...blah?

gt all

Eilat Dolphin 11:58 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Within 10 pips/ 53/ We are not used to see the Euro swimming away from the Mid Atlantic Ridge before big news are due, and right now, the Ridge is 53 pips below, so imo, since we are in a correction mode, that is far enough.

NJ RT 11:56 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin: Thank you. However, I have no ideea why my mortgage banker is expecting a reducing on the rates today ...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I am comfortable shorting aus/yen and aus/cad now...so

Eilat Dolphin 11:50 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
RT/ As of my best guess, if the Feds do raise a quarter, first a descent of up to fifty pips max, then an attack by the bulls that want to squeeze hm yours.
An attack that will not succeed.

Pleas pick this alalysis with a good wooden fork, because it's easie'r to drink soup with a fork than to know what will happen later.

But then if the Ussies have eaten their + fifty billions $ Chinese cookies, then forgret them Ussies.
For the day at least.

Food for thought, hé ?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
seems that the euro want's to correct from there to at best 1.3150...then up again IMO

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Not sure Traders...
I think to short euro...might best after US Close...3-4 hours
around 1.3360 area

NJ RT 11:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,afternoon & evening everybody ....so if the feds are raising the rates, what to expect on eur/usd pair? Thank you.

Sing GD 11:26 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
TelAviv DOR 10:56 GMT - No wucking Forries mate .. lots help me here without even knowing it ..

Sing GD 11:25 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
BCN Cat 10:45 GMT - Appreciate that trading around Data releases has become rather difficult but todays US trade number and tomorrows TIC data are key elements of where the US deficit may head and these deficits are the reason/ driver behind current USD weakness , thus a number out of expectations may/will move the USD IMVHO .

Play is nice size and will look to protect before numbers I hope .

Thinking move stop to just below 1.3275 anyway ... Lets see

Charts are flat and BB narrowing so breakout may come ..

Double no touch options may be good after these numbers come out ..

Anyway GL all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:07 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
What's at these times...anyone have a clue?
NY Time..
Tue 12/14/2004 5:00 PM
Tue 12/14/2004 6:00 PM
Tue 12/14/2004 7:00 PM
Tue 12/14/2004 8:00 PM
Tue 12/14/2004 9:00 PM

TelAviv DOR 10:56 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GD , thank you for your patience .

TelAviv DOR 10:49 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Thank you GD , My mistake because I had the impresion that you are talking about bilions traded in FX market not about trading balance . Sorry & TIA

BCN Cat 10:46 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 10:44 GMT December 14, 2004
CAT// Have a feeling this December will be, on the contrary, a good time to trade...

Could be, could be, Sofia.

BCN Cat 10:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sing GD 10:42 GMT December 14, 2004
Post-UK CPI: attention now turns to the 13:30GMT(8.30am EST) unveiling of the size of October"s US trade deficit. This is forecast to widen to $53.0bn, from $51.6bn in September. A bigger-than-expected deficit could spur fresh selling of the USD.

You couldn't be more right. But I want to stress that trading data lately has become a sort of nightmare.

Sofia NYK 10:44 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
CAT// Have a feeling this December will be, on the contrary, a good time to trade...

Sing GD 10:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Post-UK CPI: attention now turns to the 13:30GMT(8.30am EST) unveiling of the size of October"s US trade deficit. This is forecast to widen to $53.0bn, from $51.6bn in September. A bigger-than-expected deficit could spur fresh selling of the USD.

Tel Aviv read above may help you - From IFR

Sing GD 10:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
TelAviv DOR 10:31 - Mate clearly you are very new to this business. Best you watch and learn tonight .
Dont have or take a position with real money , paper trade it yes .
US twin deficits are the reason why the USD is so weak .

Mate my advise watch the number watch the reaction , what whats posted here and = learn ... GL

BCN Cat 10:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 10:24 GMT December 14, 2004
CAT// Think the same about cable! Turn it south could only the selling of EUR...

Hi, Sofia!

We are in waiting mode. When we face situations like this, we'd better listen to music, read or whatever you want.

December is a bad month to trade.

Sing GD 10:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Tel Aviv - Number out at 8.30am EST , my numbers come from various estimates coming from many sources.
If the talk of USD 56 Bio from Bloombergs is coming its bye bye USD and 1.34+ will be printed ...

TelAviv DOR 10:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GD , ... and another question : if people buy 53 bio E/$ other buy 70 bio $/E & if people buy 50 bio $/E other buy 37.5 bio E/$ . Where you see the surplus in any direction ? TIA

Sofia NYK 10:24 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
CAT// Think the same about cable! Turn it south could only the selling of EUR...

Gen dk 10:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

BCN Cat 09:58 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Cable's high till now: 1.9273. Just 5 pips shy to my 1.9278. Till now, of course.

Auckland 09:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Good morning to all...
Good luck and good trade

BCN Cat 09:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I think we'll see 1.9278 printed in cable. Once there, we'll see what happens.

Anyway, I think we are in waiting mode.

Syd 09:31 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Australia's deputy Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said Tuesday that recent central bank statements about the likelihood of higher interest rates remain appropriate.

But the bank also signaled inflation remains benign, suggesting there remains no pressing need to hike rates from the current 5.25% cash rate.

Syd 09:27 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
RBA: 2004 GDP Growth Likely Below 3% Unless Revisions
A$ Could Fall If Current Acct Concerns Mount
Clearest Capacity Constraints On Export Side
Serious Shock From Oil Less Likely Than Month Ago

TelAviv DOR 09:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GD , ... and what is the number now pls ?

BCN Cat 09:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
USDCHF

This pair has a strong barrier at 1.1579 and a strong support at 1.1480.

If it breaks 1.1579, it will go to 1.1643. And it it breaks 1.1480, it will go to 1.1417.

GOES B747 09:17 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
good morning all,

averaged EUR/USD shorts @ 1.3250; looking for a touch below 1.2950 within this week.

gt all

BCN Cat 09:14 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 09:03 GMT December 14, 2004
Cat:
I think we notice that..
but are u in position yet for cable?

which direction did u take?

No possie taken yet. Data is due in 17 minutes.

Need to see one of levels posted broken.

Syd 09:08 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Bear Stearns Steve Barrow says they are looking for $56bln bloomberg tv

Tallinn viies 09:07 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
DJ:
Trader says liquidity 'has almost gone' in the FX market and the man with the orders rules. For this morning, he notes someone is sitting on top of cable at 1.9250, likewise EUR/GBP at 0.6925. For EUR/USD, he looks for 1.3250-1.3350 range, says looking at a 1.32-1.34 double-no-touch option might be profitable.

LA fxnew 09:03 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Cat:
I think we notice that..
but are u in position yet for cable?

which direction did u take?

BCN Cat 09:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD has a strong barrier at 1.3338. If it breaks it firmly, it will go to 1.3405 and there it will take a breath.

TelAviv DOR 08:56 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GD , thank you , where you get those numbers ( 53bio , 50 bio ) ?

BCN Cat 08:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!!

GBPUSD has two important levels. Up, 1.9278. Down, 1.9213. If it trades below 1.9172, it will touch 1.9116 and there will see what will be going on. If it trades above 1.9320, it will go to 1.9375 and there we'll see.

Sing GD 08:27 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
TelAviv DOR 08:19 - Buy EUR sell USD on a Trade figure above USD 53 Billion , this shows trade gap is widening and is USD negative

Buy USD sell EUR on Figure below USD 50 Billion as this would indicate opposite to the above , but would need to be confirmed with higher TIC numbers tomorrow ..

Note FED on later ... hope this helps

Going with trend in trade .. is my choice for the day .. lets see .. win some lose some but need to be in it to win it ..

Hopefully win more but always manage risk ..

Syd 08:23 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD / USD

Sing GD 08:22 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - 1.3270-80 Looks well bid , being well reported good names buying lower in 1.3250-60 region.
US trade number above 53 Bio USD and 1.3350 barriers talked about are gone and 1.34+ beckons , it is the weak side after all.

Play for the day here:
Long EUR at 1.3314 TP at 1.34+ will move up if strong move , Stop 1.3245.

Once 1.3350 trades will take all risk out of trade and move stop to beer money stop at 1.3325.

GL all

TelAviv DOR 08:19 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GD , Pls explain the one before last sentence : " As for the trade ..." ??? TIA

Ltn th 08:19 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Syd. Any idea what stevens is likely to talk about?
ABARE numbers seem odd with reduced quantities but increased values of many export items.

Dallas Mauricio 08:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Good Day everyone. GL/GT.

SanFrancisco TG 08:08 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
At least opening the session here I think Euro should be buy dips for a bit in probability. Was under pressure all of asia and no real takers.

tk jf 07:56 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
syd - exactly just need some patience for now

Syd 07:52 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
tk jf selling is risky I agree, may be around 7665/70 but it it breaks 77 its off to the races.

tk jf 07:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
syd- the aud pattern shows no signs of stopping just yet - i really want to sell but need some signal thats its safe to do so - just cant see that yet ----- maybe the key is the fed wording --- tankan yen cross provides some play tho

lax-lgb SNP 07:41 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
considering €/¥ & £/¥ shorts if EU cant go higher ...

Syd 07:38 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
tk jf sitting here trying to work out the Aud think we may see it run up and back down again before the Fed , unless the RBA bloke is very bullish

Syd 07:37 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
tk jf I thought that , some happy soul just new how to cheer us up for Xmas.

Tallinn viies 07:36 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
buying the euro only option todqy again,
stop under previous day low should be safe today.
target 1,3455/60
good luck
try to buy near 1,3275/95 range

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:30 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
^n225 Day 10,850 10,728
almost every index is going east these days + Coverging ---> variations getting less and less...maybe for x-mass

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:19 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
I wish GVI would put a streamer intsead of the one adds..

tk jf 07:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Syd 07:11 GMT December 14, 2004
thanks for that comforting thought , -1 tk jf

Syd 07:11 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO (AP)--An estimated 13,000 people would die and 800,000 homes could be destroyed if a severe earthquake strikes directly underneath Japan's densely populated capital, a newspaper reported Tuesday.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
aus/yen and aus/cad recommended sells for some time

Sing GD 06:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
hk jc 06:46 GMT - .25bps already well known and priced in , Fed has made sure the market knows this .. everyone looking for wording in statement to further rates hikes , many see this cycle of tightening to see at least 1.25bps higher at 3.5%.

More key tonight and tomorrow is US deficit and Trade numbers and TIC data will help give the market an idea on that front

Everyone keen to just sell USD but as can be seen last week many took pain in the choppy correction ..

Euro land is by no means doing great either , nor are others and some saying now USD devaluation not best way to fix deficit ...

Key level Friday 1.3230 is still the key to downside , we closed Friday around the number and indicators were pointing higher hence yesterdays bounce ..

AIMVHO

As for a trade sell USD on Trade fig above USD 53 Bio , buy it below USD 50 Bio ..

One hour charts looking for lower currencies EUR, GBP , but price ticks higher ..

GL all

LA fxnew 06:51 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
yes.... how many hours till FOMC ??? ?
thanks

hk jc 06:46 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
just want to ask, what are the expectations of FOMC tonight?

DF Bob 06:46 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
SELL YOUR DOLLARS!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:28 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
System Out put for auto orders Daily

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3437 1.3168 Hold Hold
USDJPY 106.0104 103.6991 Sell Hold
GBPUSD 1.9431 1.9030 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1689 1.1389 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5420 1.5287 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7687 0.7480 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2390 1.2146 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7196 0.6994 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6964 0.6871 Hold Buy
EURJPY 140.4475 137.9958 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.5821 199.6881 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 91.5907 89.7586 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2378 2.2019 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7718 1.7355 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6460 1.6175 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9402 0.9171 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 80.3385 78.5412 Sell Buy

tk jf 06:10 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
im - better practice - u got to get 500 this time

Calcutta Vikram 06:00 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
'Morning Friends.
Expect most pairs to move sideways for 1-3 days now. $-Yen could range as narrow as 104.60-105.00, Swissy may see 1.15-1.16, Euro-Dollar 1.3330-1.3230 and Cable between 1.91-1.93 (relatively wide). Good time for Range trading rather than Trend trading. Cheers

LA fxnew 05:53 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
does anyone short cable now?

thanks!

KL KL 04:48 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
jcr, i suggest have a nap for 2 hours then perhaps some action during near the London open time. So you have been +ve so far...which is good...tonight there will be more fireworks....I only hope cos this is not my trading day...BOO-ring...boo to the big boys...maybe they have started Christmas party...gl gt

orlando jcr 04:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Is the market going to be this quiet until FMOC...???
What a waste of the past three hours...
Took a $Y short for +1 and a $E long for +1.
The only real action was when I logged on and wasn't ready to jump in - and then nothing...

Anyone see some movement to follow that I'm missing?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:09 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Long taken on the eur/usd pair was not able to flourish as the resistance has held this pair in a range for now until the release of the data later helps to fuel the market’s fire one way or the other. I am flat now looking for another break that will have more follow thru than this one. Numbers have not changed much but I will present what I have as long as nobody minds.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3330-40, 3380-3400, 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3470-80 Support T/L 3220-30 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3250-3270, 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3040-60 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

perrie como 03:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
lj gmc

guess you still sitting short eur/usd's


ps not helpful to your possy to posting helpful thougts
g/l anyway
lahkonoc

perrie como 03:14 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
funny
all those currency forecasters around saying if that if this the dollar will go up or down

guess this is just a dull market and those guys just writing to get the salary

boh call It a job ..but guess potatos trading

KL KL 02:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Out eurjpy at 139.45 +1 what a boring pair to play..ok back to gbpusd ...looking looking ...so all waiting for Tankan, FOMCA, rain, hail, shine...LOL

Hong Kong Qindex 02:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:28 GMT December 12, 2004
Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT December 12, 2004
EUR/USD : The neutral zone of my 3-month projection profile is located at 1.3067 - 1.3179. A projected resistant barrier has been established at 1.3341 - 1.3397 and the market is heading towards the neutral zone at 1.3067 - 1.3179.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:17 GMT December 12, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of 3-Month Projection Profiles


A) : ... // 1.2416 - 1.2579 - 1.2741* - 1.2904 - {1.3067} - 1.3230 - 1.3392* - 1.3555 - 1.3718 // ...


B) : ... // 1.2323* - 1.2509 - 1.2695 - 1.2881 - {1.3067}* - 1.3253 - 1.3439 - 1.3625 - 1.3811* // ...


C) : ... // 1.2026* - 1.2286 - 1.2546 - 1.2807 - {1.3067}* - 1.3328 - 1.3588 - 1.3848 - 1.4108* // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:13 GMT December 12, 2004
EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of Quarterly Cycle


A) : ... // {1.2012}* - 1.2241 - 1.2470 - 1.2699 - 1.2928* - 1.3157 - 1.3386 - 1.3615 - 1.3844* // ...


B) : ... // {12012} - 1.2212 - 1.2412* - 1.2413 - 1.2813 - 1.3014 - 1.3214* - 1.3415 - 1.3615 // ...


C) : ... // {1.2012} - 1.2172 - 1.2332* - 1.2493 - 1.2653 - 1.2813 - 1.2973* - 1.3134 - 1.3294 // (1.3455) - 1.3615* ...


The common factor(s) of the series are 1.2012 and 1.3615. The mid-point reference of 1.2012 - 1.3615 is 1.2813.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:37 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : We have to keep an eye on the 3-month projection series when the market is trading below 1.3294.


Hong Kong Qindex 09:47 GMT December 13, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my Quarterly Cycle is 1.3134 - 1.3294 and the mid-point reference is 1.3214. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


EUR/USD : Quantized Levels of Quarterly Cycle


C) : ... // {1.2012} - 1.2172 - 1.2332* - 1.2493 - 1.2653 - 1.2813 - 1.2973* - 1.3134 - 1.3294 // (1.3455) - 1.3615* ...

Tokyo IM 02:35 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 02:17 GMT December 14, 2004// I took it for a ride up couple of times but that is it. Waiting for it to move further after EUR makes-up it`s minds.

Halifax CB 02:17 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo IM - Are you trading the cross eurjpy then? it's been making a very respectable 30p/day since it broke out of the pennant formation, and is still performing in a textbook fashion, and hasn't broken 100pips down from the trend yet...

San Diego DC 02:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$
My 2 cents...
For short-term position trading, EUR continues to be bullish and the bullish leg has just barely begun (tech) on 2 h and 60 min charts. Minor time cycles are due 16-17 with major time cycle around Dec 19-20. The cycle dates mentioned above are significant points in time which could lead to change in direction or continuation in the same direction.

Tokyo IM 01:54 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
KL KL// PSP was sold out in a day. One of my friends got one and it looks totaly fun to play with. MY views are simple. $/Yen to the skyes as well as EUR/$.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:49 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 01:45 GMT - We have to wait and see with an opened mind.

KL KL 01:47 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Top of the day IM.....1 word - TANKAN!! You can fill us with your view...if based on the PS2 new digital toy...business must be booming...LOL

Antwerp Tom 01:45 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, i've seen your "super magnet" performance twice before and i must say i was quite impressed because when you first mentioned it it looked so far away, so i said to myself: watch Qindex and his super magnet! :-)

Tokyo IM 01:40 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
G`morning all. tk jf, kl kl morning.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 01:32 GMT - It is very likely.

dc fxq 01:34 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ 00:16 GMT

no need being snide.

look at the calendar and figure it out yourself.


Antwerp Tom 01:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, are you saying we will soon see your super magnet?

Lj gmc 01:26 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT why? I think eur usd 1,3000 before new high
if we look overall picture USA have
better economic data then other country except deficit!
some voices from EU and JAPAN tell us here is
no more big room for usd slides. Big fishes plays for big
pips and we need pretty nice correction to min 1,3000 these is minimum i prefer 1,2850 or 1,2600 here in these
levels are good start for next down trend i think max 1,3700
for eur usd. These is only opinium from small fish
GT to all

Hong Kong Qindex 01:24 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:24 GMT December 14, 2004
EUR/USD : As shown in my 3-month projection profile the market is still under the sphere of pulling force from the "super magnet" located at 1.3067.


C) : ... // 1.2026* - 1.2286 - 1.2546 - 1.2807 - {1.3067}* - 1.3328 - 1.3588 - 1.3848 - 1.4108* // ...



SAIHAT What_he_found_when_he_lost _you 01:01 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
0.7729 0.7750 R4
0.7666 0.7677 R3
0.7627 0.7631 R2
0.7618 0.7620 R1

AUD
0.7556 0.7565
0.7540 0.7551

0.7462 0.7465 S1
0.7453 0.7457 S2
0.7414 0.7425 S3
0.7351 0.7372 S4

Syd 00:42 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
wellington am sounds like the UK most of theirs are owned by the Arabs.

wellington am 00:39 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Syd 00:32 GMT December 14, 2004

Thanks for posts. Have to say tho that most of this news has already been "over" factored into current move between ozzy/kiwi, and a correction back to more normal levels for ozzy/kiwi - 112+ is pending.

LOL, a lot of NZ's best assets are owned by ozzies anyway!

Syd 00:32 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Australian business confidence fell sharply in November in the wake of oil price rises and amid weaker trading conditions in the retail and wholesaling sectors, suggesting economic growth will slow next year. The NAB business conditions index was at +20 points in November, unchanged from October, however the bank's confidence index fell to 6.5 points from 10 points.
National Australia Bank survey

Gen dk 00:20 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 00:18 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
what do you think of longing gbp here for 1.9295 with stp 1.9175 ? thanks

Atl TJ 00:16 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 00:13 GMT December 14, 2004

Not sure of the point of your post. Or maybe its the Gamay Beaujolais. Probably the latter. Care to explain?

dc fxq 00:13 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
lack of posts also may be indicative of the depth of this market

KL KL 00:03 GMT December 14, 2004 Reply   
OUT OF USDCAD SHORT at 1.2281 +9....attention turned to gbpusd...this is good also looking at eurusd and especially eurjpy gbpjpy...I think lots of action here....just watch

in short eurjpy 139.46 sl 10 above

 




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