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Forex Forum Archive for 12/15/2004

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dc fxq 23:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 23:44

you can lead a europhile to water but you can't make him/her think!

Upington kalahari 23:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
"gold coast martin 22:44 GMT December 15, 2004
Syd 22:20 GMT December 15, 2004
The best way to apply this economic jargon to trading is to adopt a fundamental long term position (12months} of a strong dollar bias and a weak euro bias..i call this a macro wave..divide the year into 12 months and based on short term sentiment trade accordingly(bull or bear}..i call this micro waves that are been attracted and repelled as they get close to the macrowave..which acts as a super magnet....g/t...this way you can have a different sentiment short term while maintaining the long term bias....enables you to trade within a trade.....g/t"


this is the biggest load of crap i have heard in a very long time...thanks for the laugh...it has been a very long time

gold coast martin 23:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 23:41 GMT December 15, 2004
lol...

dc fxq 23:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 22:56 GMT

[email protected]!!!!

Stockholm AGuy 23:30 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 23:15 GMT:

The difference between these cases is that while the EU and Japan are primarily borrowing from themselves, the US is borrowing from the rest of the world (currently absorbing something like 80% of the world's savings, if memory serves me right).

As for the Stability Pact, it's being disrespected but isn't gone (yet); and Japan's fiscal pressure has some way to go before reaching US levels. So all is not doom and gloom. :-)

Livingston nh 23:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
AGuy - Japan and EU have serious government fiscal policy problems for different reasons -- Japan has a much larger debt problem than other G-7 and will probably hike taxes at some point next year (they did this a few years ago with a sales tax hike)-- EU with the Stability Pact gone will probably have a budget deficit in excess of 4% next year (the mishmash of regulation and capital flight away frome the "core") // meanwhile the Fed is the only CB that maintains a negative real rate so investment almost by definition must exceed savings

I don't see how currency adjustments can ever overcome bad fiscal AND monetary policies

Stockholm AGuy 22:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 22:27 GMT:

The EU and Japanese economies have been growing slowly for structural reasons (euphemism for anti-market policies) which have caused their savings to be diverted to the US. Hence, the US did not have to pay for its own investments, freeing up incomes for consumption. This in turn got American consumers addicted to spending well beyond their means, while their European and Japanese counterparts got addicted to over-saving.

Now what? Building up US-style (read gargantuan, insane, absurd - insert favourite hyperbole here) deficits in the EU and Japan is no way out of this situation, for the simple reason that there is nobody left to borrow from in such vast amounts (no, China is nowhere rich enough yet).

This is crucial: savings, either your own or somebody else's, are a necessary prerequisite for investments. No investments, no growth. So the EU and Japan need to invest more at home, which will be facilitated by free market reforms.

That's the part which Americans seem to like. The part which is not so popular in the US, but every bit as necessary, is that Americans must be weened off their "free foreign money" addiction and start saving more of their own income, lest it become their turn to fall into a period of slow growth for lack of investment funds.

gold coast martin 22:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
...sorry..best way may need to be re-phrased to...one of the ways......

gold coast martin 22:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 22:20 GMT December 15, 2004
The best way to apply this economic jargon to trading is to adopt a fundamental long term position (12months} of a strong dollar bias and a weak euro bias..i call this a macro wave..divide the year into 12 months and based on short term sentiment trade accordingly(bull or bear}..i call this micro waves that are been attracted and repelled as they get close to the macrowave..which acts as a super magnet....g/t...this way you can have a different sentiment short term while maintaining the long term bias....enables you to trade within a trade.....g/t

dc fxq 22:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 21:59 GMT December 15, 2004
....as you see the yankee ingenuity of making asians addicted to dollars will rescue the greenback eventually.

it is precisely the size of US deficits that permits Jpn and Chn to put surplus funds to work in treasury securities that keeps them addicted. Without large deficits the need for treasury issuance would shrink dramatically.

Jpn. Chn and the EMU have no comparable size market in which to keep funds invested so the moral is that the EMU has to have some deficit financing to develop a solid market with depth for Euro denominated debt.

One further note on a slightly different topic, various an d sundry fin'l talking heads in the ENU have of late taekn to berating the US for a lack of savings. Has anyone else noted that the slowest growth economies around (EMU and Jpn) have the slowest economic growth among the majors? Perhaps it is time for other to berate them to get their money out of their mattresses and invest in their national economies.

Syd 22:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin , article below makes one doubt it will work, but recently Europe refused to help train the Iraq police and soldiers - which really upset C.Powell , so I cant see Bush lightening up on the dollar anytime soon.


Dollar Drop No Help for Record Deficit
LINK

gold coast martin 22:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
...back to the current scheme of things.....as i posted a few weeks back the, dollar should see support between the 16th -19th of december in the form of fund squaring of positions and profit taking before end of year..g/t

gold coast martin 22:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
,,,SYD..call it blackmail if you wish..abluff it is not....as the eurozone is finding out now...Bush is managing to cure the deficit by dollar devaluation,and effectively punishing EU economically by making euro exports to the states uncompetative via a higher euro..its as close to economic sanctions as you can get it....i actually feel for some of the EU members who are paying for the illusions of grandeur that france had displayed in the pre-iraq scenario..

Syd 22:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin a touch of economic blackmail or bluff

SanFrancisco TG 22:00 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
CB, SYD, Martin ... All so true guys. Results should be fascinating. You all have a great night/day.

gold coast martin 21:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
....as you see the yankee ingenuity of making asians addicted to dollars will rescue the greenback eventually....

gold coast martin 21:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   


Syd 21:47 GMT December 15, 2004
While China keeps buying American t-bonds that finance the deficit ,the US is not bullying china into revaluing the yuan...so naturally china will take its time to suit itself...and since china and japan are the main financiers of the deficit and will continue to do so(it will be to their great economic detriment if they dont),the US message to the eurozone is "..we have a problem that it is your problem...fix your problems domestically and our problem will disappear...please do as we ask because we are the 900 pound gorilla of the economic world...."....the ball is in the court of the dithering EU policy makers.....

Syd 21:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG the bottom line is china , everone is feeling the chill until they revalue and Europe are having to bear the brunt of it - due to their lack of cooperation over Iraq , I dont think Bush has any sleepless nights . In the end the dollar will come back it always does

GOES B747 21:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:38 GMT December 15, 2004

cheers; shape the metal while it's hot!

gt

Halifax CB 21:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TG - re the deficit, I remember seeing something similar re. the trade balance - that it took about 6 months for the effect of a big currency swing to bear fruit. Once that starts happening, you'll start seeing better press re. the US economy, simply because the talking heads who only seem to be able to focus on one thing at a time will move on to the next attraction. My hope though is that the States, unlike Canada, won't blow the opportunity afforded by an undervalued currency (it doesn't last long).

oslo oskar 21:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
GVI, could we have a new food fight or mud wrestling forum please?

Stockholm AGuy 21:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Sigh...

SanFrancisco TG 21:28 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I'm not innacurate. You are attacking me again.

Stockholm AGuy 21:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 21:03 GMT:
If a purported fact is inaccurate, it's inaccurate. If a chain of reasoning is fallacious, it's fallacious. (Dare I say "A is A"?). If somebody pointing out errors of fact or of logic in your posts automatically becomes your "enemy", and your response of choice is a personal attack, you have a serious problem.

SanFrancisco TG 21:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
On that note, Wells Capital Management has said that historically decline in the budget deficit typically begins to take effect around two years after the start of the weakening of the currency, and that we are now just entering that two year period. This should be something to really take note of one would think.

Vienna GD 21:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras ... pls search the web!
Also explained it once on this board ... search the archives.

Halifax CB 21:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
It appears to me that the GBPUSD has also been contained on the upside by it's day's high (and beyond that by it most recent peak above 1.95), so we are considering an overnight short with a s/l 50 pips above and a tp of 1.93 GL, GT.

Dublin Melody 21:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Or 1.3325 level

Dublin Melody 21:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I exit the EUR long position
just want to have a good sleep,

try to Buy @ 1.3368,
Stop @1.3340

FX-Apprentice

SanFrancisco TG 21:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hey I just posted positive sentiment shared by leading Fortune 500 executives. I spoke with a director of the GAO a while back who shared the same views.

Every time I make a post that points out positive US economic condition contrary to the doom and gloom crowd this guy from Stockholm is all over me like I'm an enemy.

Global-View 20:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Please take any further discussion on this to the Help Forum.but before that happens, I feel compelled to add that any professional trader uses stops directly or indirectly to establish his/her risk reward. You can get away without using stops when the market is trading ranges but will get wiped out if caught the wrong way in a trending market. There are many traders who are R.I.P. on Boot Hill who did not use stops.

Stockholm AGuy 20:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 20:29 GMT: "Tells me a lot about you"

Actually, it says a lot about you that you claim to speak "what America has to say" (how's that for megalomaniac delusion?), and even more that instead of debating the issues - a debate which you know that you can't win - you resort to the gutter level trick of guilt by association with a posting location. How relevant! I guess the good people at Timbro, whom you repeatedly quoted recently, are all Socialists too now? After all, they are in Stockholm too, you know.

KL KL 20:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ok out on my long term gbpusd play, 4 hours out at 25 shorted from 1.9445...let it run up and reshort again...+20...sheeze!!

Amman wfakhoury 20:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Vienna
I agree with you

Pecs Andras 20:46 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Vienna GD 20:41 GMT December 15, 2004
What do you mean by scale trading?

Amman wfakhoury 20:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC..stops should be used for short and long terms,you can use hedge,advance hedge ,and average in my case

Vienna GD 20:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC 20:29 .... don't agree - i almost never use stops (imho stops are for the brokers) and i'm highly profitable!!!

Because of scale trading --> "deep pockets" <<--> small positions ... f.e. no problem to follow usdjpy all the way from 115->95 or deeper.
Sideways trading ... best case for scale trading
Trending market like usd all the way down ... also easy.
If you are on the wrong side of a strong trend ... you could go broke without proper MM.

Message: the usage of stops depends on your trading strategy/style!

BUT: if you don't use scale trading ... RM of course is a MUST!

NYC 20:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Disciplined traders use stops.

Amman wfakhoury 20:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Nyc..I used stop when it is necessary...if you are using it blindly..then you can do what you want.

NYC 20:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman, this says more than enough. If you don't use stops, don't ask others to follow your lead.

Amman wfakhoury 20:20 GMT December 15, 2004
NYC....most of the time i dont use stop in my trading,
I am trying to pick profit then close my order .

Stockholm AGuy 20:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 20:24 GMT: "Stokholm - How's your unemployment? Under 10% yet?"

My location is Stockholm, not "Stokholm". And I'm rather more than 100% employed (not including the small amount of time I keep wasting trying to educate you).

SanFrancisco TG 20:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Reason I ask those questions is that logic dictates if the US economy is doubling the performance of Germany, France, or Russia, its people would be more interested in listening to what America has to say instead of abrasively attacking America with nothing but b.s. Tells me a lot about you.

Atlanta-South 20:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman: Just a thought mind you, but keep trading your way & get copies of your results, then you & the results attend the NEW YORK party that was mention earlier. Maybe, just maybe some on the forum might be in attendance & can view your results & verify such to other who may not attend. Of course this sounds like more that its worth. If your are successful with your method thats all that counts. AGAIN, JUST ANOTHER THOUGHT. YOU DON't NEED TO CONVIENCE ME. GL>.

Syd 20:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC thanks for noticing that little Gem

SanFrancisco TG 20:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Stokholm - How's your unemployment? Under 10% yet?

Amman wfakhoury 20:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC....most of the time i dont use stop in my trading,
I am trying to pick profit then close my order .

NYC 20:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Here is an update I saw last night that put me on alert. :et's call it a Gem in the Ocean. I believe $/yen was trading above 105.50 at the time.

Syd 02:26 GMT December 15, 2004
Claudio Piron Forex Research Head Jp Morgan says just now Live on Bloomberg sees Dlr/Yen coming under pressure later today FWIW.

Stockholm AGuy 20:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 20:07 GMT: "Stokholm - How is your GDP these days?"

TG, you *really* need that Econ 101 class now. I'm an individual. Individuals don't have GDPs. Nations do.

NYC 20:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Going tor 5-15 anb risking 15-20 does not sound like a sound approach to me and if you are scoring 80-90%, you would be sitting on the beach in a resort on the Red Sea.

UK, JB. There is still a wealth of information here but like always, you have to sift through some of the bravado to find it. Like a treasure hunt.

lj gmc 20:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
todaj NY close above 1,3370 eur/usd

U.K. J.B. 20:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman i wish you every success, but trust me it is impossible. I am not offending you please don't take it that way. i used to post here on the Forum i have been trading for 23 years but i feel it is turning more into a gambling casino. There are still a few good guys i see that post, but it's not for me.

All the very best to all of you and i hope when i take another look in 3 months time Amman you are flying and proving me wrong.

grand forks can ska 20:07 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
test

SanFrancisco TG 20:07 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Stokholm - How is your GDP these days?

Halifax CB 20:05 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Re. EURUSD - Judging from the previous local peaks on the weeklies on this one, the price action in a week following the first close down week (like last week) is usually confined above by the peak of the last high week. With that, and today's EURUSD peak at 1.345 or so, we are taking a small short with a s/l slightly above the high with an initial target of 1.33 (the average for the period since the high.) Given talk about trading styles, my style is very risky I often ignore standard indicators, to my own detriment though right now they seem to agree on this one.)....GL...

Auckland NZ peat 20:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
of course everything said here should be taken with the proverbial grain of salt, that goes without saying, but , if someone can make useful predictions they shouldnt be chastised for it.

Syd 20:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Asia Trading are we going to see more dollar weakness or BOJ across the newswires express concern ?

Amman wfakhoury 19:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Nyc....my stop 15-20 pips..just in case

U.K. J.B. 19:55 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC 19:50

Stop is -50 could be more if he drops the Crystal ball

Spotforex NY 19:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thank you for taking the time to clarify your trading style.

Make lots of money so you can attend the Global-View NY Holiday party in 2005.

Rumor that Jay will have gift bags of Euros for all attendees.....

NYC 19:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman and where is your stop for this so called amazing accuracy. If you go for 5-15 pips each time.

oslo oskar 19:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:49

huzzah! huzzah!

whoopeee~!

Amman wfakhoury 19:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I am a daytrader ,trying to take quick profits,5-15pips each time with 5-10 lots.
my predict 80-90% are correct

Stockholm AGuy 19:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 19:35 GMT:
"Examples of the EU/China foul play is seen in pegged (leeching) currencies"

?!?

The EUR is not pegged to anything. The RMB has been pegged - by law, not "managed" by intervention, which in contrast would imply distortion of free market forces - to the USD since 1994, so how can it have become a problem now? That's like claiming that Chicago is leeching off New York by pegging its dollar to New York's. The claim makes no economic sense whatsoever. It's fast currency moves - competitive devaluation, in particular - that can constitute leeching.

Let's see now, which major currency has been undergoing a very fast, politically sponsored, competitive devaluation lately? Hmmmm...

"state sponsored bottom end export pricing undercutting free market conditions"

Really? Is that why the WTO ruled against the US on steel tariffs and ordered them removed? Or are you referring to the latest round of US agricultural subsidies?

"paying off politicians of another government to overheat their currency"

Would you mind providing some shred of evidence for this remarkable claim?

wellington am 19:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
bulls and bears fighting it out over the ozzy. looks like bulls may have sway

lj gmc 19:45 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
what is the forecast anybody have a view on tomorow
switzerland rate decision and what will be reaction
on usd/chf thx a lot for any view

Memphis Charles 19:40 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman, it's okay to take a flyer every now and then and play a 'hot-tip' you might hear on the forum. Just do so with a very small part of your trading capital and either watch the position like a hawk or enter stop loss orders.

Spotforex NY 19:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
so I too try to be careful when talking about views on the market.....

I do hear flak about this 'suggested' trade from oct.....but the guy failed to use proper risk management.

Summary....If you have a reason to enter a trade..then you must have an idea of where to take profit or exit.

An exit strategy is created at the same time a trade is created.

Amman wfakhoury 19:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Let me explain how my predict works :
when I say the EUR/USD will rose during this hour,
then you will buy immediatly , and try to take profit soon
when the market move.
if it moves down b4 it rise, then buy at low another
lot..so you can double your profit

SanFrancisco TG 19:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm ...

Examples of the EU/China foul play is seen in pegged (leeching) currencies and thus dragging on the US economy to their advantage, state sponsored bottom end export pricing undercutting free market conditions, paying off politicians of another government to overheat their currency knowing your economy will benefit, claiming foul play over tarrifs yet commanding state control of import/export conditions to the level of imbalance, claiming 50% or greater of import/export revenues for state expansion. Management is one thing, dictation is another.

Investment capital flow to Russia is drying up under Putin, Germany and France are at zero to negative performance at present because the rug has been pulled out from under the government market control and US economic leeching.

Spotforex NY 19:33 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
here is the followup to that post.....

from GVI

'Spotforex NY 14:30 GMT December 8, 2004
also 'kiss of death' sold dollar yen (yes his first FX trade in weeks since buying Dollar yen at 110.80) at 103.30 last night.......I am sure BOJ officials took note of his track record......'

Spotforex NY 19:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Just to give insight and example. Back on Oct 6th - I was very bullish Dollar yen above the 110.80 level. One of my close marklet friends noted my enthusiam and joined into the trade via his futures account. I provided a suggested stop at 110.60...he felt he did not need one....Below is a post when someone took my overall view but failed to use proper risk management....

from GVI

"Spotforex NY 13:41 GMT October 7, 2004

Nice observation it seems to be unfolding.....my 'kiss of death buddy' just sold yen because of the higher oil today.....

There goes my dollar longs......"

Amman wfakhoury 19:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta -south
ok..i will continue tmw...you can try my msg
then you can act accordingly

Spotforex NY 19:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta-South 19:11

well stated and agree.

Atlanta-South 19:11 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
AMMAN: No, do not stop because of this. As I said, each TRADER has a responsibility to his or herself to verify any & ALL INFO THEY READ OR HEAR. No on TRADER has ALL the answers. Keep you post coming. We can read them & decide to act or not. THIS IS JUST MY THOUGHTS, NOT TRYING TO OFFEND ANYONE.

Halifax CB 19:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
RE CAD - CAD is currently trading near the resistance in a channel that started back in the last week of November or so (we are using straight line LSQ fits to identify these) about +/- 150 pips on either side. If the support holds, it should continue to be profitable, at about 30 pips per day. I'm back in with a small trade, and will add on if the support holds.

Eurjpy continues to be well within the trend defined by a LSQ linear fit, with support & resistance +/- 75 pips; it came off the support earlier to today; it's averaging a little under 30 pips per day. I'm back in on this one.

A pennant formation seems to be taking shape in USDJPY, I intend to watch this for a good break to the upside over the next week, right now it's not well defined. But a further weakening of the Yen would be in line with the rise in Euro strength. In the longer term however, the similarity of the current situation of the Euro to it's last top can't be overlooked, so there's no long term plans here.

Spotforex NY 19:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:03

I am not asking you to stop posting. I am sure there is a following of you...I did see some nice comments about your views.

I just am throwing out a cautionary note that we have have good streaks and bad streaks in our FX views.

Just be careful in how you word a post/ view.

I have views in the market about the direction of the dollar (or whatever). Sometimes a person will follow a members post to the detriment of their capital. That is all I am noting.

We all have views, but different constraints on capital and time frames. Thats all!!!!

London 19:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
A lot of talk about intervention and strong Dollar - thin market conditions in the next week could help them get their point across with ease, especially with the Funds out .

Stockholm AGuy 19:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 18:39 GMT:

"regarding the politically motivated housing bubble concept"

What's "political" about it? American households keeping a negligible savings rate and borrowing money at record low interest rates to buy homes are a matter of fact. Rates going up are a fact. What's "political" about either?

"we have a weakening currency. When housing does really cool, a currency which can strengthen to provide growing purchasing power will be just one component to counter rising rates"

Ah, the TG theory of bubble deflation explained! "While it's true that we have a growing tumor, not to worry, cause we already have the bubbonic plague, which we'll recover from just in time so our overall condition won't worsen anyway."

Some of us might feel just a tad more comfortable with that view if you could at least explain why exactly the USD would strengthen if the US housing industry goes south, taking consumer spending and investment capacity with it.

"tarrifs against some nations over trade imbalances appropriately step on a stranglehold placed on the US economy"

Are you perchance referring to the neo-protectionist practices adopted by the US on steel and agriculture? You do of course realize that the net economic effect of those practices is a negative for the US economy? That they were adopted for political reasons in swing states, "saving" a few
thousand jobs at antiquated and uncompetitive plants which could not compete in a free market, at the cost of burdening every purchaser of steel - car and appliance makers, and ultimately all their customers - with artificially high costs?

It's protectionism - a traditional leftist practice - that's the
stranglehold on any economy.

"the US was getting screwed by EU and Chinese government manipulation"

What "manipulation"? Please do enlighten us.

"EU and China are going to have to learn to succeed with real free market cooperation"

Oh, so now imposing tariffs is a way to get "real free market"... uh, "cooperation"? Last time I checked, real free markets ran on the principle of *competition*. If imposing tariffs to "save" uncompetitive industries is your idea of a "free market", that explains a lot about your postings.

"White House a few years ago who enabled them to play with economic matches"

Ah yes, the "economic matches" known as free market competition. Terrible idea, that. Let's have a sensible state-run economy instead, with the government dictating who is to sell what at which price. That's what made the Soviet Union great!

Atlanta-South 19:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Spot: Well Said. Really if ANYONE believes 1/2 of what is said on this forum or any other forum & trades on it they need help. Myself I read all I can on this forum & elsewhere, act on none of it unless I can technically or some other way verify that info. Let everyone post what they think, read it or don't, thats each TRADERS choice. I have suvived 3 years by reading & then verifying. Just my thoughts. Thanks to everyone who takes the time to post.
HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL.

Amman wfakhoury 19:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
spotforex...thks for your caution...i just want to assist others according to my experience...any how I will stop my msg if that disturb you

Amman wfakhoury 18:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
GVI jay..ok..i did

Spotforex NY 18:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
amman

There is NO such thing as 100 pct accuracy, especially in FX forecasting.

I just want to caution those who may follow the 'advice' posted on this forum. Lots of new members come and go and some at times some may actually listen to a post like yours and invest their hard earned capital. Just a note that following another's FX advice can be outright hazardous to your own trading capital.

I am all for posting and generating trading ideas, but again the KEY to longevity is risk management.

That is my simply message.

Memphis Charles 18:54 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Spottie = Spotforex NY

Memphis Charles 18:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hey Syd... thanks for remembering. Hope you're doing well. Best wishes for a prosperous New Year.

GVI Jay 18:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
amman- please remove your emal address from your lcoation. TIA

amman wfakhouril 18:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
spotforex....are you looking for 100 pct accuracy in forex

SF zk 18:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Whats "spottie" slang for?

SanFrancisco TG 18:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
In addition to being to sound professional trader, Spot has a good heart and almost always looks to be helpful in my opion.

Syd 18:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles hi long time no see good to see you back

Memphis Charles 18:45 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Spottie is kicking A and taking names today.

Spotforex NY 18:43 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman

Thanks, but no thanks.
I hope you make lots of money in your trading,

but to others who blindly follow a fellow members post here in FF and actually tradeoff them - I just want to suggest that it is not whether the call is correct - BUT what are the RISK PARAMETERS involved. I am sure your advice record is not 100 pct in its accuracy.....

defining CLEAR risk/reward parameters are the key to longivity in this business.

SanFrancisco TG 18:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Flip I think you are absolutely correct as usual.

SanFrancisco TG 18:39 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Also regarding the politically motivated housing bubble concept, I am surely not suggesting we wont at some point see some cooling of values and activity. Such cycles are inevitable in a dynamic economy.

I just don't see the "bubble" scenario taking place. If we had an overheated currency such as in the late 1990's the US would be wide open for such a demise. But we have a weakening currency. When housing does really cool, a currency which can strengthen to provide growing purchasing power will be just one component to counter rising rates and equity/value reduction.

Along with the forced USD decline, tarrifs against some nations over trade imbalances appropriately step on a stranglehold placed on the US economy which had served as a leech for EU economies and the Chinese economy.

Basically the US was getting screwed by EU and Chinese government manipulation (although the benefits of cheep imports were a plus temporarily) and now the damaging condition is being hit in the nose.

EU and China are going to have to learn to succeed with real free market cooperation now that they have lost a "partner" in the White House a few years ago who enabled them to play with economic matches.

London. 18:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko is you opinion Euro still in a correction mode - you may have finished for year already , but if your around appreciate your view .

dc fxq 18:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 18:22

I am with you on that oine spot, an awful lot of mindless posting lately.

Dublin Flip 18:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tg I agree. That's why I also think the Fed will pause sooner than most think. Fed funds has more than doubled in six months (1.00 to 2.25) and will have trebled within little over 10 months if the market consensus comes true of 25Bps each of the next three FOMC meetings (3rd being 2 May).
The US is nearer the end of the rate hike cycle than the beginning the multitudes of economist believe.
Then again we shouldn't be too harsh on them. 9 months ago most of these plonkers (including Bernanke I might add) were saying a defaltionary period was in the offing -LOL

Spotforex NY 18:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
The forum basic mission is to generate trading ideas....saying that the Euro will rise this hour is a nice opinion, but it is all about risk management. The wording of that 'call' is basically a coin toss in its statement.

12 pips or 9 pips immediate impact is nice, but where would you take profit????? If it falls by 100 pips in the next 30 minutes, would your 'prediction' have been fullfilled because of its initial 'pop' higher?

Happy Holidays,

spot

Stuttgart HW 18:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Went up 9 points directly after his posting! greetz HW

NY NY 18:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman

no it hasn't according to my system.....13-16 when you posted.......barely went higher.

Atlanta-South 18:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman:Thanks for that response. It sure appears that way.

Amman wfakhoury 18:00 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I predict the EUR/USD to rise againg during this hour
good luck

SanFrancisco TG 17:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Flip - Good point. I am betting the Fed is quite comfortable nursing recovery along and wont shock the system. They've made that mistake before, and that is part of what this dollar rebalancing is about. Plus the Aussie economic structure is a bit different than the US so I don't think the effects are as acute (not that I am a specialist on Aud economics). Have to admit good man, Steve Roach, Pimco, everybody who wants to see Bush fail has been calling for every conceivable demise at the turn of every single policy he's put in force since taking office and they've all been dead wrong. I'm sticking with my record. Seems more truthful. :)

Dublin Flip 17:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
re tg 17.26, I looks like your are hoping that Australia isn't a harbinger with regard to the US housing market. Australia didn't react to the first rate hike but now after some time of it coming "through the system" their real estate market has some real problems (at least that's the press talk the past few days). Given that Australia's intrest rates were never slashed to the "pallative care" levels of the US it also suggests the US may have more of a shock to come than if it's rate hike sequence began from a moderate level.

Atlanta-South 17:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Has the steam run out of EUR/USD for now? If not what next?

Dublin Melody 17:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
For the last 5 months,
I don't remember quite clear,
1. above 30%
2. above 20%
3. only 2 %

4. lose a lot for exciting mood :-(, I made this mistake 3 times this year
I want to find a Doctor to consult my psychology.

5. about 10 % at the moment

I wish to become a professionl Trader one day like most of you

Spotforex NY 17:36 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Melody 17:34

you are only as good as your last trade.

Amman wfakhoury 17:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Sanfransco..thks alot..and now too

Dublin Melody 17:34 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
My Friends,

How long is OK for a good Track Record
to Apply a Professional FX Trader Job ?
Half year or one year ?

SanFrancisco TG 17:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman - You really did make a solid Euro assessment last night.

SanFrancisco TG 17:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Lot of comments lately regarding a rise in rates a guaranteed death knell for the housing market. Housing sector stocks very strong today across the board. Is it possible that outside of the doom and gloom hopefuls some factors such as return on investment supporting activity, inherent market force for values settling to counter the rates and inviting buyers, return on personal investment from rising yields, still low inflation supporting purchasing power despite the weak dollar, and the employment rate consistent with the last 30 years average might just fly in the face of a .... warm up .....

Politically inspired Doom and Gloom Housing Bubble Catastrophe concept ?

I think so.

Amman [email protected] 17:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
As i perdicted eur/usd just moved up 22pips

Hong Kong Qindex 17:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:46 GMT December 15, 2004
EUR/USD : Weekly cycle barriers are located at 1.3412, 1.3424 and 1.3443

Tallinn viies 17:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 17:06 GMT - sell out of the money O/N puts if you dont kow where to buy. have been doing it for many many weeks and cant complain :)

Dublin Melody 17:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TKS, and merry Christmas

houston st 17:18 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

MELODY -- good luck/good trades...

Dublin Melody 17:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Sorry What means
"gl/gt" and
"KL KL"

houston st 17:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

MELODY 16:59 -- that's "music" to my ears...lol...gl/gt.

Rivonia PipPirate 17:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 16:56 GMT LOL

Amman [email protected] 17:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I predict eur/usd move up during this hour

Dublin Melody 17:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I wont take any cents for short even if I can
When 60 MA and 30 MA is Up

GOES B747 17:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
thank you viies...I do not mind to enter @ 1.3385...is that a sure print?

sorry, but I am not so good with charts..

tia & gt

SanFrancisco TG 17:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Viies - Yes, I was looking to short Euro last night and fortunately decided the momentum was lacking. Yesterday in NY the flows were supportive of taking short term retracements but in the following sessions they were definately not. The puzzle is sometimes in determining when which will dominate I have found.

U.K. J.B. 17:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
It does make me chuckle. There have been some significant dollar negative developments in the Forex market today and we are trying to pick the top of Euro and Stg for a few pips.At least the more particpants the better for liquidity I wish you all well- Happy Christmas-

Tallinn viies 17:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 16:56 GMT - 1,3370/75 we may see but not sure...
better buy it when stochastic will croiss higher

Dublin Melody 16:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EURO was bought @ 1.3236 (2 lots)
and again @ 1.3296 (3 lots)

will exit 3 lots @ 1.3450 level
another 2 lots, move S/L to 1.3350

KL KL 16:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
J.B., Nope just trading..some call it swing trading, some call it contra, some day trading,even some call it gambling...I call it short term positional trading. Who cares as long as one makes money in forex...this week not as good. greyhound is boring the dogs only run one direction..here I can try it going backwards....LOL...gl gt to you..

In again gbpusd short 1.9445 sl 1.9458...cos I want a break and have some shut eyes...maybe one eye only...LOL

GOES B747 16:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
viies, what will be a good entry point from your point of view for the 1.3550 ride?

tia & gt

Tallinn viies 16:55 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
too many scouts out there trying to sell the euro on every tick higher.
as market thin we may see 1,3550 within next 24 hours IMHO.
sharks getting some

U.K. J.B. 16:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL

Ever tried greyhound racing , i thought we were dealing in the Forex market on this forum

SAIHAT &_What_he_lost_when_he_found_you 16:43 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco

you... pointed to God .. The path of God

he ..pointed to humen

Gen dk 16:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 16:39 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
taking my 22 pips on gbpusd short from1.9451 at 29...still -5 on this hour. Reshort a bit higher again..come on eurusd you too go down a bit

KL KL 16:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Follow up with short eurusd 1.3425, gbpusd ...thank you BOE? intervention?

KL KL 16:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
looks like gbpusd is asking for it so short at 1.9451...and down now. It has to go down somwhere here

SanFrancisco TG 16:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
aggh, had a feeling I was lost.

SAIHAT What_he_found_when_he_lost _you 16:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
limit

sell

eur 1.3446

gbp 1.9456

for some pips

OK SZ 16:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Steve, that would be great and will look forward to having you here in the great state of OK:) please have a wonderful holiday season. will send you an email later.

OK SZ 16:16 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, I appreciate all your work you do for this forum and believe me I take to heart all of your posts. Have a Happy and safe holiday

houston st 16:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

nice trade OKIE...looks like I may be moving back to Tulsa after the first of the year...let's meet in Stroud for a hamburger...lol...way to end the year...good holidays to you and your family...

KL KL 16:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
haiya usdusd sl taken, somewhere here I am going to get bak my -26 pips...Took my +6 pips ...still -20 on gbpusd earlier short again - in short at 1.9438 sl 7 above

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SZ good for you I hope the same for you too. As I said before it was the first to blink that would suffer and it looks like the bulls have control once again for the eur/usd pair looking for my main number (3500-30) to hit before the year is over we will see now. GT

OK SZ 16:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
well I took my 20 pips x 5 so I am done for the year. Everyone have a great holiday and looking forward to a great 2005. GL, GT everyone

jkt-aye 16:05 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Taken a contra-trade ... short gbp 1.9436 stp 1.9466 tgt 1.9376.

Tobolsk JeanTr 16:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba

Buy eur/$ 1.3420!!!

Philadelphia Caba 16:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Sold eurusd @ 1.3420

Tobolsk JeanTr 15:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 15:54

Trend is UP, Hes sold... :((

KL KL 15:54 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ok trying again at 1.9432 short...not having now the power to go ...come on go down..pretty please.

Long usd cad at 1.2271 sl 1.2259

nyc grumpy 15:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
london sylhat, stop SHOUTING

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ooops I forgot about 9365. sorry for my often post today here..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I am thinking about 9335 bottom. let gbp/usd chart make sell pattern now.

KL KL 15:46 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
took the +1 on offer and now waiting to reshort a little higher...very soon...still some up momentum left.

Tobolsk JeanTr 15:39 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Mountly target gbd/usd is 1.9575

KL KL 15:36 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9419...time for some retrace....no reason just need to IMHO for some pips. Cannot wait for 1.9430 so trying now for 7 pips rsisk

slv sam 15:34 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
new euro high today? let us see!GT

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
london sylhet 15:23 GMT December 15, 2004
first step is at 3380 in short term trade.

Jakarta r4v3n 15:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Buying usdchf @1.1398....stop @1.1385
looking to exit around 1.1450

Philadelphia Caba 15:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks london iain.

london iain 15:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 15:18 GMT December 15, 2004

Yes and no. Euro came into effect in January 1999 and current levels are highest since then. However, synthetic highs (using DM, peseta etc) reached 1.4588 equivelent in September 1992..

london sylhet 15:23 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo

MY FRIEND, I WATCH ALWAYS YOUR COMMENTS, AND SOME TIME I FOLLOW YOU AS I AM A NEW IN THIS MARKET. MAY I KNOW WHAT IS YOUR NEXT ADVICE ON EURO/$

Helsinki iw 15:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Well, looks like the correction has failed and I was wrong. Last hurdle at 1,3475/85 and if that is broken as well we could well be entering conditions where liquidity is at a premium.

Tobolsk JeanTr 15:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd must re-test 1.95 today....

london iain 15:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
agreeing with a few comments. i don't trade corrections, but if i did, i'd be a cable and eurusd seller against the previous highs. As it is i'm looking for dips to buy them both. 1.89 and 1.300 would be golden tickets in my mind...

Philadelphia Caba 15:18 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone! GT!

Is 1.3470 all time high (from Dec 7) in eurusd? Thanks.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
friends..! in my system I get the strong concluson that gbp/usd have get extreme top at 9414-27 (ending phase) also eur have get ending phase at 3415, also usd/chf have get 1383, also usd/jpy have get 104.01. also gold have get 440. I detected maybe today chart will reversal. I hope your selling usd exit soon. not good hope too much in your profit. I think today is optimal profit from usd selling :-)
serious !!

B.A. BOCA 15:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 15:05// it is a very slippery slope indeed..

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
lets see ..usd /jpy wil go to 104.86, with number must be looked at 104.54, 104.70 and 104.86. I prefer wait at 104.86 for sell again.

Spotforex NY 15:05 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Re: Real....

The CB better be careful if it mismanages at a critical area....

from GVI

Spotforex NY 19:38 GMT December 7, 2004
Brazilian Central Bank was in buying USD the past two days I am told.....Gov't officials have been verbally talking down the Real to no effect..now they have acted.......Not the scurry higher effect out of US dollar shorts...I am sure that ECB officials are taking notes.....

Spotforex NY 15:05 GMT December 5, 2004
The US Dollar /Brazilian Real held its weekly pivot point at 2.70...but just barely FWIW

Spotforex NY 14:28 GMT December 3, 2004
FWIW, the emerging mkt ccy Brazilian real is probing its pivotal weekly support at 2.70.......

dollar can't even find strength outside the G-7 ccys

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy move up after touch 104.01. I hope you see my post today about 104.01. I hope get profit fom there.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Positiion Traders need to look into eur/cad for 2000 point over a year

B.A. BOCA 14:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)--Traders said Brazil's central bank offered to buy dollars in the local foreign exchange market Wednesday morning.
The bank was offering to buy dollars at BRL2.754 per dollar, and traders said they were waiting for results of the auction but that at first glance it either bought very little or nothing at all.
The real normally weakens after the bank steps in, but at 1450 GMT, after the central bank offer, Brazil's real was trading at BRL2.751 per dollar, 0.5% stronger from Tuesday's close of BRL2.765.

OK SZ 14:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, well all we can do is follow our charts and act on what they tell us and run with it. hopefully they will take us the right way. But then again you just never know. Sometimes I just have to scratch my head and move on to the next trade. Good day all

HK Kevin 14:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 14:51 GMT, hope I am right. Loss 30 pips this Asian afternoon from short at 1.3332.

OK SZ 14:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:47 GMT December 15, 2

with you also in at 13420 this is my last trade of the year. GL, GT all

HK Kevin 14:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Large short EUR position entered at 1.3412, s/l above previous high . Looking at the weekly chart, the pair made an ugly ref candle last week, I think it wont' be able to make a new high at least this month. Otherwise, I need to take an tutorial on FOREX ABC.

Livingston nh 14:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
CHF has been strong against evrything today - a rate hike tomorrow?

GOES B747 14:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Tom, thank you very much; B'H' it will play good for my positions, I really want give away a wealthy ma'aser!!


gt

Antwerp Tom 14:23 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
B747 14:08 GMT// i doubt it, but then again things might move so fast to the upside that you will get the deep correction right after and within 45 days, so ironically if you're holding to those $ longs, you might hope for a quick and sharp rise in /$ to say 1.37... GL

Syd 14:21 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas close thaks

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
syd.. you got selling at .7642?

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 14:18 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
1383 have done.. = buyers level.

Jkt Rick 14:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Time to sell the euro for 300 pips sell at market 1.34 for 1.31.

Sing GD 14:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
london iain 14:12 GMT - Thks for info - Stop in the Money , may get done .. lets see .. keep up the posts , much appreciated , to be honest the way the USD was sold today tells me somebody knew something or just took one censored of a punt ... thks again

London. 14:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
DRW Trading startegist Lou Brien notes Treasury says that net foreign purchases of US securities was $48.1 billion in October. Brien says this is not enough to support the dollar based on the size of the current account. It is below the total for September which was $67.5 billion. "This is above all, a dollar negative," he says.dj

london iain 14:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Sing GD 14:06 GMT December 15, 200

Have already patted him on the back. I'm not 100% sure of this move, though, and still wouldn't be surprised to see 1.89 and 1.30 on cable and eurusd in the days/week ahead..then much higher into Q1..

Dublin Flip 14:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
thanks SYD.

GOES B747 14:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tom // not out, I can afford to keep it for 45days; do you see chance for price under 1.3180 during the next 45 days?

thanks!

gt

Antwerp Tom 14:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dramatic numbers, shorts fasten your seatbelts, test of previous high is imminent.
B747// i hope you're out of your $ longs, if not i'd consider going short GL GT

Sing GD 14:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Iain - you have a trusted source .. good call .. Poistion working just fine for now ..

GL all

Syd 14:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Net Foreign Buys In Sep Revised To $67.5B From $63.4B
Net Foreign Buys Of US Securities $48.1B In October

dc fxq 14:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Oct. capital flows $48.1 bln vs Sept. $67.5 bln By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Capital flows into the United States slowed in October, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. Private purchases of U.S. financial assets fell while purchases by foreign central banks rose slightly. Total net capital inflows fell to $48.1 billion in October from a revised $67.5 billion in September. Private net purchases fell to $49.1 billion in October from $51.7 billion in September. Foreign central banks bought $14.2 billion of U.S. assets, including $14.8 billion of Treasurys and $0.9 billion of corporate bonds. $800 million of agency bonds were sold.

CBS Marketwatch

manila stubbs 14:00 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
did tics come out?

Milan ISPAR 13:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
But creating the EUR as a reserve currency will mean deposing USD as the current reserve currency. If investors start liquidating their USD reserves and the money flows out of the US system too quickly, USD becomes worthless, and US recession (=world recession) is the result. Trichet has more in mind that just the "reserve tag" on his pet currency.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I think good level usd/usd is at 1419 (have done), to get range 1393-83...just for short term trade.

B.A. BOCA 13:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--While continuing to keep mum on where exactly he would like to see the dollar, Treasury Secretary John Snow told CNBC Wednesday that the Bush administration's dollar policy is "well known."

In his first interview since President George W. Bush asked him to stay on as Treasury Secretary, Snow said he never talks "about the level of the dollar, and our policy on the dollar is well known."

.....

good first quote to establish his second term. who needs credibility anyway?

Syd 13:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
http://www.fxstreet.com/buscador/buscar.asp

Dublin Flip 13:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
So tirchet is asking people not to hedge against further losses(i.e. a weakening USD). Sounds like a pretty strange request. "Please refrain from helping develop Euro in a soverign reserve currency alternative and continue to lose more of your country's money for the good of BMW" -LOL
Sounds like more a rumour to me.

Syd 13:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip I was passed a couple of his aud reports also you can sometime retrieve them on http://www.fxstreet.com/buscador/buscar.asp
f.xs.tr.eet

but it doesnt appear to be at present working, I alway had the feeling listening to him,( he is a regular on Bloomberg )that he would prefer a stronger USD.

dc fxq 13:45 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone elaborate on this from IFR? I just have the delayed "bullets".

13:27 EUR/USD: Trichet Discussed Asking Sovereigns To Trim Buys

Roumeli anka 13:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
usdchf update :http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf1512.gif

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
yes !!! my level usd/chf have broken after gave buying reaction when touch there. mean ?

GOES B747 13:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
is it possible that the Russians who buy EUR/USD big time since this morning are doing that as a counter to the Yukos filling in USA?

I wonder if geeting the protection from USA court means that the company will get protection also from the Russian taxmen according to the American law...can be that BIG story is developing!

gt all

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 13:31 GMT December 15, 2004
for short term.. please wait at 7641 and 7652, but for long term..topist at 7691

Dublin Flip 13:34 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd - where do you view FXmax's achirves???

I had heard he was an uber-bear on the Ozzie for a while now due to trade deficit. My experience has been that as a fundamentalist Clifford makes a very good chartist (his real skill).

Zuerich GLE 13:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 13:25 GMT

I am a subscriber to his service for nearly two years, and he is
a bear since EURUSD 1:1, and also in his recent analysis there
are only heavily bearish predictions.
He had a year end prediction of 1,34 since spring and further out 1,39. Not bad in my opinion.

Syd 13:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas whats you top for now on Aud cheers

Syd 13:30 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Aus/melb this is what the Bush administration are calling for Asian currencies especially Yuan higher - take pressure off european or should.

GOES B747 13:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
viies...hats off!
looks trades passing through your wires

gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:28 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
be carefull.. gbp/usd maybe wil go to 9415 (move from 9357).
about eur..please focuse on 3417 (top) adn usd/chf bottom at 1383 or little below.

Aus/melb 13:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd
Since 2002 the Dollar has lost almsot 60% of its value against the Euro. On balance aren't we about close to done on that, broadly speaking. On the other hand the yen has hardly appreciated despite the fact that Japan seems to have ended its 15 year holiday with recession. The economy in Japan does look like it has turned the corner. So on balance isn't there greater room for a serious bout of Yen appreciation , more so than Euro etc?

Ldn 13:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
AUD showing signs of significant bottom, Former weekly uptrend line near 0.7630 offers resistance but daily trend line near 0.7535 to hold. A break of 0.7630 could prompt rise toward 0.7700 (downtrend line, Fibonacci retracement, former support). Over coming weeks, pair to consolidate 0.7700-0.7350 before testing 0.8007

Tolhurst Noall

Syd 13:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Zuerich GLE I thought actually he was a USD bull reading his archives. I know he is a Aud Bear

Zuerich GLE 13:21 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 13:12 GMT

Clifford Bennett is a USD bear since he invented his service, and he was always right, the only problem until now was this
spring and summer the sideways action, he made losses, but who did not?
So, I think he is a very good analyst.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 13:21 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
see my post today.. I hope you able to be helped by that.

Atlanta-South 13:21 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Anyone:Has Global-View expanded the margin on the forum? I cannot view the icons on the right side w/o moving the margin bar on the bottom of the screen. Thanks for a response.

Livingston nh 13:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SYD - G'span has in previous 12 mo. tightening cycles taken Funds rate to 3% above inflation - maybe it's different this time (and maybe not)

London. 13:18 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Aus/melb got to make sure we are not being spoofed by the media

dc fxq 13:16 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
3.00% is already factored into the market through mid-2005.

dc fxq 13:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Aus/melb 13:10 GMT

firther to your comment:

the last round of 0's were a reopened issue (as opposed to a fresh issue). FCB's had enough of the issue being offered to not find it attractive. 2's and 5's got higher than expected interst from FCB's. It again is a mater of where traders, especially leveraged accounts (hedge funds, CTA's, prop traders,etc.) care to focus their attention.

Syd 13:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
This chap is quite radical in his thinking, anyone follow him

The Fed is likely to hike rates at every meeting to 3.00% or 3.50%
Implications going through next year are to add some stability to the USD, but this may not be enough to erode the looming panic psychology that could well beset the market through year end and early next year. Sharp falls, even total collapse are real possibilities now.

Clifford Bennett, FxMax

houston st 13:11 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

Dallas GEP 09:52 GMT December 15, 2004
BTW ST will ROCKET play next year???

GEP -- good question...we should know soon...gl/gt.

Aus/melb 13:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
London
One thing currency guys have not picked up on lately is that the US bond market has had really good interest from international buyers- read Asian central banks. The recent level of participation has surprised bond junkies. This doesn't mean there isn't any selling of exiting assets but it may be a pointer that as far as Asia goes ooficial interest in US assets has not fallen greatly.

Toronto Silverfox 13:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Article on Bloomberg Trichet to ask central banks to buy less euros.

Aus/melb 13:05 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
London:
My guess is that NAB will move the funds back home. Reading between the lines after the clippings they have had in the risk management area the board wants them to be closer to home. These guys will be less invoved internationally so I think that the money will be taken back into Aussie dolls.

London. 13:05 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
The greater-than-expected deterioration in the U.S. trade position in October makes it more difficult for U.S. Treasury flow data, due out later Wednesday, to provide any good news for the dollar.

It probably means that the country's current gap will turn out even larger than forecast and that attracting foreign investment will prove even more imperative.

"Structural concerns are not likely to go away quickly," said Mitul Kotecha, senior currency strategist with Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.

In fact, they are likely to become even more acute.

As the trade numbers showed, instead of widening to around $53.6 billion as forecast, the deficit expanded to $55.46 billion.

At the same time, the Treasury data are expected to show that the net inflow of funds to U.S. asset markets continues to shrink.

In other words, as the funding hole gets bigger, the less there is to fill it.

Some, like Thomas Stolper, a currency strategist with Goldman Sachs in London, expect inflows to remain fairly static. He predicts October's inflow will total $65 billion, hardly changed from September's $63.4 billion.

However, others expect a further deterioration as both official and private demand for U.S. assets continues to slide.

Kristjan Kasikov, a Calyon economist, reckons that the inflow will actually fall to $56 billion October.

He notes that while the combined foreign exchange reserves of Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan may have increased by $39 billion that month, the majority of the increase came from the People's Bank of China as it continues to protect its yuan peg against the dollar.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan buying, which had averaged $17 billion a month during the first three quarters of the year, fell back to only $7 billion.
dj

Calcutta Vikram 13:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi there Sfx.....would think Q1-05 or max H1-05 could give us some good gains in the Dow. I don't know about the fundamentals, but the charts look decently good.

Ldn 13:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
2005: Year of the weak dollar

London. 12:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Denmark's Danske Bank has acquired the National Australia Bank's (NAB) Irish assets for $A2.5 billion. The NAB will make a profit of approximately $A1.1 billion on the sale of Northern Bank and of the National Irish Bank. Danske Bank has been described as a "surprise bidder" for the assets. Earlier bids by HBOS and Lloyds were abandoned following disagreements on price. Danske's acquisition is due to be completed in the first quarter of calendar 2005. The NAB will retain profits from the two banks until after the deal is finalised. The Australian bank's CEO, John Stewart, says the NAB will decide how to spend the funds once there is "greater clarity" on various issues that could have an impact on its capital position

Aus/Melb 12:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hey Vienna
Last ight around this time I posted a comment discussing
selling doll/yen as I thought it would be vulnerable with Euro/yen so high.
You advised me that for some reason(unexplained) that it was the same thing as buying tech stocks during the 90/s and If I followed that course I would go bust. Do you mind elaborating on that a little with doll yen here. I am interested in your thoughts again (not).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
=-3233691+84.50546*NOW()

equation for the balance of the demo account
copy into excel
and change now to a future date of choice

Calcutta Vikram 12:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thks nh....in the coming months, therefore TIC could be positive. The October report becomes a little dated

Singapore Sfx 12:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi Vikram .. Hope you've been well ... May I ask what sort of time frame you have for that 15% appreciation on the Dow ? And where you reckon downside risks are ? tia ..

Livingston nh 12:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Vik - TICS shows equities (private and official) --- http://www.treas.gov/tic/

Calcutta Vikram 12:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
QUESTION.....The TIC data tracks investment in US Securities....does that include investment in Equities? Or is it only Treasuries? I ask because the Dow certainly looks very bullish now (see at least 15% upside in the coming months)

Livingston nh 12:46 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
FXq and Flip - thanx for comment

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:46 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
https://secure4.fxcorporate.com/fxpa/reports/intermediate.jsp?interval=12&crdID=100d6c0eb7c&url=http://localhost:8880/xservlet/censored/QcAxYN6OLuEw35VQNphKzx6E_t0_v80vkzVjeGsrQHA=/customer_account_statement_12-15-2004_12-15-2004.customer_account_statement-html-web?locale=en_USA&created=Dec%2015,%202004%2007:43:15&expires=Dec%2015,%202004%2019:43:15

sorry for the mess
I think the report can be viewed

dc fxq 12:40 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MFR (Maria Ramierez & Co) are among the better bond sourses and they show:

15-Dec 9:00 AM Oct Forgn Purch US Secs --- $63.4B(prev)

Calcutta Vikram 12:40 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, San Diego. Appreciate it.

FWIW......Think EURGBP is finding some significant Support, so it may be better to buy EURUSD than GBPUSD, if you are so inclined.

dc fxq 12:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 12:27

as stated - no est. or consensus est. however.

Dublin Flip 12:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Given, the weakening USD, is a function of a lack of appetitte foreigners for US assets which is (in lieu of US savings i.e. < 0.2%) needed to plug the funding holes of the double deficit, TIC data is a litmus test for US Asset "desireabilty". That funding gap has been met by Asian CBs recycling their trade surpluses while there has been a dearth of interest in US equities for a couple of years (no wonder as in Euro terms the US stock market is on it's lows still). Any moderation of intrest from Asian CBs is the risk furthermost in the markets mind that we may be nearing an inflection point.

San Diego DC 12:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram,

A link on TIC..
http://www.dailyfx.com/article_rr_070.html

Calcutta Vikram 12:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thks again, fxq....was beginning to feel like an idiot for not knowing about it

dc fxq 12:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 12:17

no, none of the major forecasting sites like Briefing.com even show it as a report (which gives you some idea of its magnitude in the grand scale of things). 4Cast however indicates it but gives no estimate or consensus number.

KL KL 12:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Not very good fishing today...all small fishes and only only one squid....sheeze.....so going to have a nap and up again in 2 hours for empire state fizzer....LOL

GOES B747 12:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
"Dutch Central Bank comments are on the wires as they scale back their forecasts for 2005 GDP from 2.0% to 1.7% because of the High EUR FX rate and oil."


gt all

Calcutta Vikram 12:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thks fxq.....any idea of the expectation etc?

dc fxq 12:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TIC, like the Empire Satae index have been puffed into a role of major importance by fx types in recent months. long time bond players consider many of the reports and data fx traders harp on as minor secondary or even tertiary data.

I guess anything or obscure number to justify a USD bearish posture is all thats need now to make a report or data bit critical.

dc fxq 12:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Vikram

TIC = Net Foreign Security Purchase

dc fxq 12:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 12:10

in certain peopless minds USD hasn't been marked down enough until EURUSD is at 2.00 and USDJPY at .75 or so.

Calcutta Vikram 12:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Silly question probably....but, what is the TICs figure everyone has been talking about?

ZH 12:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tks manila sry delay was off

Livingston nh 12:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
seen some comments here about TICS figure for Oct - wouldn't the interest rate action since October reflect the fact that the figure isn't that important? USD has been marked down already

Jkt Rick 12:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd 1.3367 30 mins charts negative sell signal negates long trade, therefore take profits of 90 pips from yesterday at market. no more euro longs at the mom. hourly still bullish but sell signal may develop in a while.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Cad should do something here!!

azarento com 11:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
short eurusd 1.3375

NJ RT 11:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all ..... my charts shows resistance @ 1.3468. Let see if it goes there. I will go short at that point or around.

Syd 11:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
BOJ Have Been Calling Banks, Asking Usual Questions

Ldn 11:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Yukos Files For Bankruptcy Protection In US

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 11:12 GMT December 15, 2004 //
Yeah...OK
I sort of Designed this so can Trade without watching it all the time..
I just enter the these daily...Keeping the Orders< .01* equity in USD...(Ie.5,000 $ = Maximum of 50 orders with one lot each)...
I Long or short only at the levels and Trend...if Hold I don't enter them.
but 5 minutes a day doing this is better then spending many hours waiting.
so...I just will do this for sometime...works...Great..Then OK...
If it doesn't...oh well...I Guess it's OK too.. LOL

Syd 11:36 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
large Swiss bank said to be USD/Yen seller triggred stops in EUR/USD and cable to 1.3370 and 1.9360 respectively traders are saying.

Sing GD 11:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
london iain 11:24 - Your source may be right , maybe given price action in last hour some thing is up or known ..

Sing GD 11:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Well Stop entry done

Long EUR at 1.3372 ,stop below 1.3330 and look for 1.3465+

Lets see TIC data , thats event risk , charts say in long here
Once 1.3400 trades stops to ATM ..

GL all

london iain 11:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
There's no market consensus for TICS today, but one source I regard reckons on a very dissapointing 50bn from 63.4 last month..

Sing GD 11:18 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Mine heard on Bloombergs from one analyst ...

manila stubbs 11:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ZH 11:14 GMT December 15, 2004

Informa global markets

ZH 11:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tks sing

tks manila, whoms estimation is it, if may ask?

Auckland 11:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain I'm in and waching looks good but too much to me. I've got on everage 3-5 trades per day per currency but higher pip x5 or 8/10

manila stubbs 11:11 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ZH 11:03 GMT December 15, 2004

$67.0B

KL KL 11:07 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ok time for all currency to fall just collect at each extreme retracement on 10-15 mins charts...Can say today trading is o.k not great....

Sing GD 11:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I have heard maybe USD 70 Bio odd , last month was only USD 53 Bio if i remember correctly .. anything in the USD 60 Bio + range should be USD supportive ..

SOFIA NYK 11:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Closed all the GBP, will buy later -on the next dip.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


ZH 11:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
hi, has anyone seen any expectations for TICS today?
couldnt find any, last was 63.4

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland//
:)...Thanks

Dallas Mauricio 11:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP

Dallas GEP 11:00 GMT December 15, 2004
Well Dallas M had pound pegged to go long GREAT call

Dallas GEP 11:00 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Well Dallas M had pound pegged to go long GREAT call

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 10:55 GMT December 15, 2004 /
says everything in the report icon.
Account Statments are there

Jkt Rick 10:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 17:52 GMT December 14, 2004
My friends who want to make money, buy euro at market right now 1.3282 for a guaranteed upmove to 1.35 in a few days.

there is no stopping the euro, buy it now even at 1.3370 for 130 pips.

Auckland 10:55 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain - it might take time to look all closed, open and open orders but tell me how much did you start with and when or everage daily pips

Hong Kong Qindex 10:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


azarento om 10:46 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP is loosing weekly momentum....almost negative!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 10:42 GMT December 15, 2004 ///
anyways Let me know...

Stuttgart HW 10:43 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Watch USDCAD.... GBPUSD loosing momentum.

KL KL 10:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
out previous gbpusd short +2 ...reshort 1.9351..sl 7 above...you know my style...take the pips quickly if it goes in your direction and if it start to come back get out always with at least 1 pip profit for the effort and to make your brokers 1 pip happier...LOL

Auckland 10:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I've got some money sitting et Your broker in UK office.
I didn't log for while and I just updated platform. It took me time...
I usualy use S..O bank

azarento com 10:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
trichet is speaking now?

slv sam 10:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
euro is a strong buy imo for new all time high soon...never late to buy..won't be surprised to see 1.38+ by 31/Dec.GT

Hong Kong Qindex 10:40 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Nice...Right?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 10:35 GMT December 15, 2004
I didn't know You did.

PA MTD 10:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas you can ignore this, but I'm going to ask anyways.

What is a good time frame to pick out resistance and support? I did notice there was some support coming at the 1.3300 level, but wasn't sure if it was too soon to call.

Auckland 10:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips
How did you know I loged in you trading platform

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland/
Demo's Return OK By You?
IF You need the code to input the trades...let me know..
all have to do is copy the posting into excel then run a macro...
will do the order's input for You in 1 Minute.

sg 10:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Can someone post GBPJPY low traded within last 30 mins please. TIA

Eilat Dolphin 10:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MTD/ Yes, I am shorting it some, with a time span of a couple of hours if need be.

Dayton Jam 10:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA draw a horizontal line on the 60mn chart at 1.3300 and you will see this level has been previous resistance

Dayton Jam 10:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA draw a horizontal line on the 60mn chart at 1.3300 and you will see this level has been previous resistance

Stuttgart HW 10:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
KLI was just going to do that

Dallas Mauricio 10:28 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
These are the type of postings that are designed for THIS board!

KL KL 10:25 GMT December 15, 2004
Time to make some trade known...short gbpusd 1.9332...still a USD dollar bull short term until US economy tells otherwise

PA MTD 10:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
any ideas on the big jump in the EUR/USD?

KL KL 10:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Time to make some trade known...short gbpusd 1.9332...still a USD dollar bull short term until US economy tells otherwise

PA MTD 10:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I want to do this right so I will start with one thing at a time. I've been jumping into too many indicators at once and don't take the time to learn one that works for me. But eventually, I'll surely get there. Thanks.

Dayton Jam 10:23 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA

Do not worry about it, If you would like anymore recomendations just ask as well as for any other assistance.
It is not worth getting into a debate with anyone over this issue.

Dayton Jam 10:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I have both books that you have mentioned, and both the first will give you a good basic understanding of Technical analysis and Nison's book is one that I will be studying for the CMT level II exam. I use very little in either to trade with; however, it is good knowledge to understand what others are looking at. A lot of traders use Elliott and Gann levels in this market so do not overlook these.

PA MTD 10:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas - I haven't been looking for help. I don't remember asking for it? Did I miss something? I know it's late and all, but I'm not getting delirious. Dayton has just started talking to me and recommending a book. I know that I noted I was a beginner, but I didn't imply I wanted help.

Dallas Mauricio 10:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA, Please log into the HELP forum as this forum is more dedicated to active traders. Thanks.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:16 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Check the demo's Return from auto system
FX5M120909
pass:forum
FXXCM
I think OK.

PA MTD 10:15 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the recommendation Dayton. I will check it out. I am getting a book by Cornelius Luca called "Trading in the global currency markets." I'm also getting Steve Nison's "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. Anymore recommendations, just let me know.

slv sam 10:11 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 08:31 GMT December 15, 2004
cad looks stronger today...indicating weak us ccy today imho! so for short term buy cad and sell us$!GT

cad never lies..it is the most sensitive indicator for immediate future us$ move imho...watch 1.23 level if punctured then I expect new euro high soon!GT

Dayton Jam 10:11 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA
Fibonacci for the active trader by Derrik Hobbs is a great book with easy to understand rules for trading. There are many others; however, they will overwhelm you at first. In the end, it is you and only you that will win or lose. Keep you're losses small and study everything that you can so that you will understand why others are taking trades. Understanding why the pro's are taking trades or where stops are building alone can keep you profitable with a good trading plan.

The book can be bought through Traders Press

PA MTD 10:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
As far as the stops, I was watching that entire position that I just had. I haven't figured out where I'm going to place them, I still have a lot to learn. I've been looking for a good place to learn/get a forex education (for free).

PA MTD 10:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
actually no, I'm only using the charts right now. I have two lines drawn on the chart (60 minute). One for resistance, and one for support. That is all. I don't completely understand the fibonacci retracement, haven't researched it much either. I've heard of pivot points, but haven't been able to see how those work just yet.

Dayton Jam 10:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA

Are you keeping a log of all you're trades including the set up as well as the trigger and placing a manual stop that you will never, and I meen never override (quickest way to lose is to hope)?

Also, it can be very helpfull to keep a daily check list with important numbers that the pro's use to trade with.
3,2,1 day ranges with the highs and lows for those days, 50% retracement levels (Fib numbers are important as well) and major and minor support and resistant levels.

Tallinn viies 10:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
bids have crawled slowly up to the level 1,33.
which indicates nice move higher got to be on the cards.
1,3455/60 target 48 hours.
stop at 1,3244.
keep buying!

PA MTD 09:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I'm trying to keep this as real as possible so I only traded .2 units. Small gain, but better than a loss.

Dayton Jam 09:54 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
My hold time was approximately 10 minutes

PA MTD 09:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Daton - I shorted at 1.3320 and held it for about 2 hours

Eilat Dolphin 09:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Martin/ In astrology, you can say anything you want, no one can contradict you; while in FX the market can say anything it wants, you can't contradict it.

True that both markets are higly emotional, even hysterical at times.

Dallas GEP 09:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
BTW ST will ROCKET play next year???

PA MTD 09:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
the next classes to take within the science w/ lab for the geoscience department is either the Dynamic Earth, or Exploring the Universe. I'm more interested in the Universe and so I will wait until it is available to take it. Supposedly there are two nights they go out to look through telescopes, should be interesting.

Daton Jam 09:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTA
We must have taken the same trade. That was a high probability scalp with the exit just above 1.3300

Great scalp

tk jf 09:47 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
pa- id sign up for science with lab- testing water temperature at daytona beach during spring break - maybe a subsised trip - gl with f/x

gold coast martin 09:45 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 09:37 GMT December 15, 2004
LOL...astrology a bit like forex dolphin.....looking at the currency board is like looking at the stars in the sky...always hoping one day that you will conquer them...btw...we are in for beginning of some dollar support in tonites ny session...due to funds squaring and exiting long euro positions..i posted this a week ago as the dates of 16-19th of december will see this intensify....the kiwi is still a short for thursday...g/t

PA MTD 09:45 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat - I've noticed that haha. We learned about warm and cold fronts, how to predict them, and how to tell them apart. Very good information and everything I learned in that class was interesting. However, 1 hour and 30 minutes of straight notes can really make you sleepy.

PA MTD 09:43 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Just took an 11 pip profit, i'm new. Happy with green for once :-)

Eilat Dolphin 09:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MTD/ Weather pattern are a hundred times easier to predict than FX weather...

PA MTD 09:40 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Astrology, astronomy. lol In fact, the class isn't called either of them. I couldn't think of the name. I just looked it up and it's called "Exploring the Universe."

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:39 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 09:26 GMT December 15, 2004
I think OK to short Eur/Yen...(Generally)
maybe a good level is today's High...
I think the euro will drop for more then 24 Hours at least
Maybe a pick Up point 1.3124...Maybe by Friday

PA MTD 09:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SYD - thanks. In fact, if it goes as planned I will be scuba diving in the great barrier reef. I am really looking forward to that.

Eilat Dolphin 09:37 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MTD/ You did write "astrology", the taboo word!

Hong Kong Qindex 09:36 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd 09:35 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD Just one more place then no more from me
Great Barrier Reef and Islands

houston st 09:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- looks like someone's trying to hit the stops below 115.00 but running out of steam @ the moment...good luck w/ that trade.

PA MTD 09:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat - that is way over my head. I'm just taking this Oceans and Atmospheres class because I had to take a science w/ lab and I didn't want to take biology, chemistry, or physics. The next chance I get, probably the Fall '05, I am going to take Astrology w/ lab so I'll be learning about both, and much better than the hard sciences I just mentioned.

houston st 09:28 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- mkt is like the weather in Texas...if you don't like it just wait an hour and it will change to the next extreme...gl/gt.

Dallas GEP 09:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Well ST, I was in and out pretty quick on those EUR/JPY trades. Did wind up positive on that pair but did notice that NEW lows that printed DIDN'T have any follow thru. That BTW is also why I am long on usd/chf now with fairly tight stop. We are not getting much continuation on the lows

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi Auckland/
Sort doing this
Day Trade auto system
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3419 1.3153 Hold Hold
USDJPY 106.7388 104.4413 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9457 1.9057 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1693 1.1395 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5407 1.5275 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7666 0.7460 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2483 1.2240 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7190 0.6989 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6955 0.6852 Hold Buy
EURJPY 141.2672 138.7917 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 205.2301 201.2823 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 92.2080 90.2787 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2419 2.2059 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7740 1.7375 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6566 1.6279 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9449 0.9216 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 80.6855 78.8797 Sell Buy

gold coast martin 09:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 09:21 GMT December 15, 2004
Continuous mild weather in the 22-28c can get monotonous but overall it agrees well with trading.....g/t

sydney gvm 09:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain - what is your view on $/ ? Looks bearish to me - maybe your euro bearish view could come about via a major move down in Euro/Yen ?

Eilat Dolphin 09:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MTD/ The satellite Goes give you constant pictures of all weather systems and different water wavelenghts,... half the planet, animations;

Color on the Madison server, with color codes of total planet: ground, sea and could tops temperatures accurate to 1C and sun's distance to 1 Km etc.

PA MTD 09:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Auckland, thanks for your response. I did not know SYD was on here, otherwise, I would have directed it towards him/her. I am going with a volunteer program and so I don't have a choice as to where I go, all I know is that I'm going to Australia. New Zealand was my 2nd choice. :-)

Auckland 09:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips
Hello Bahrain, Where are your levels and pivot points...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/EurMomentum.gif
Eur/usd lossing momentum for more then a day...wow

houston st 09:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- you weren't alone on your euryen short yesterday...had a fundy friend who had the same trade, only earlier, and got run over just to see the price come back to earth...price action is a bitch @ times...good trades

Auckland 09:21 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 08:48 GMT December 15, 2004
SYD gave you better answer where to go - Gold coast, Sunshine coast that is place to go...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hello Everyone.. :)

PA MTD 09:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat - did I miss something?

Auckland 09:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 08:48 GMT December 15, 2004
What do you want me to tell you ? "nice" - I would be liar Summer should come to sothern hemisphere but I just wach how ugly weather is at the moment in Auckland (rain). I have been living in Auckland for 6 years and winters are sometime nice (We had just 2) dry and warm but sometime rainy and ...
next winter I believe will be dry.Otherwise, bucket of water from sky...
Good trade

Eilat Dolphin 09:14 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MTD/ GOES, the satellite... will hand you all...

PA MTD 09:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I'm actually studying Business/Finance.

And to tell you the truth, I have an Oceans and Atmospheres class and we learned about the weather patterns, but mostly over the US. The Pacific is getting smaller so sometime in the future, Alaska and Russia might be touching. Maybe someday Australia and the US will be closer, that would be neat.

Anyways, Finance...that is why I'm looking at FX. :-) Makes sense!

tk jf 09:07 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
dolphin - gd point -

tk jf 09:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
astronomy sorry japanese keyboards

Eilat Dolphin 09:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
jf/ If it were astronomy, he'd know the weather patterns over Australia... must be medicine.

Syd 09:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD totally different climate tropical and the South its like Europe Melbourne wet. Gold Coast is Great around 25-30 degrees all year round and sunshine coast , not been to Perth so cant comment.

tk jf 09:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
pa
finals week = twice normal beer allowance than usual
what are you studying ? hopefully something like astonomy

PA MTD 09:00 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TK - ??

Syd 08:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
CANBERRA (AP)--Terrorists are ready to carry out an attack in Indonesia, possibly targeting a Hilton hotel, Australia said Wednesday.
"We have received credible new information suggesting terrorists are ready to carry out an attack shortly in Indonesia, possibly targeting a Hilton hotel," the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said in a statement. "Other targets cannot be ruled out." The statement didn't elaborate on where the information came from. The government warned Australians in Indonesia to avoid all international hotels and other places where foreigners gather. it also again advised Australians to defer all nonessential travel to Indonesia, while Australians already there who fear for their safety should consider leaving the country. "In the lead-up to the Christmas and New Year holiday period, we continue to receive reports that terrorists in the region are planning attacks against a range of targets," the foreign ministry said in a travel advisory for Indonesia. Terrorist attacks could occur at any time, anywhere in Indonesia and could be directed against any locations known to be frequented by foreigners," it warned.

PA MTD 08:59 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco - I'm watching a 60 minute chart.

Dallas Mauricio 08:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
GEP answered my question.

PA MTD 08:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks SYD, I knew it was the opposite of the US, but I didn't know about the differences in north and south. I thought it was all the same. I hope to be going to the north then!

tk jf 08:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
pa
does that = more beer ?

SanFrancisco TG 08:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA - I am not the best in the business, but I will tell you I feel it is a major mistake to look at any time frame under 30 minutes for currency trading. Futures, stocks, and currencies all have their own relative time frames.

Dallas Mauricio 08:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Good Day Everyone. I am currently long GBP/USD @ 1.9284. Any views would be appreciated. TIA

Dallas GEP 08:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SS UK labor report in 40 minutes so I would stay off that one for a while Normally I would short @ 1.9290 or 1.9300

Syd 08:55 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Australia is like the US large so the weather is different in each state June July is the start of winter so the South is cold and snowy North is warm tropical SE Queensland similar to San Diego also the weather very much the same

SanFrancisco TG 08:55 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Aud is still bid so shorting euro is tenuous at the moment

PA MTD 08:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA - Pennsylvania 3:50AM, during finals week in college. :-/

SanFrancisco TG 08:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Took small profits earlier on $chf long and re-entering shortly. Eur 3330 obvious level of contest. What bank is feeling like crossing its border right now? I wonder.

Syd 08:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD where are you from

PA MTD 08:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
MUNICH - Thank You. Little by little I am learning. :-)

Los Angeles ss 08:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Gep -- any thoughts on cable?

Munich 08:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
PA: Good morning! Wish you luck for the future.

PA MTD 08:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
AUCKLAND - how is the weather down there during June and July? I'm going to be travelling to Australia around that time...

Dallas GEP 08:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Well SWISS is being bought acroos the board now against all currencies BUT reversals APPEAR to be imminent. LONGED usd/chf @ 1.1508 with 20 pip stop

Auckland 08:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Good morning world and
Good trade

GOES B747 08:39 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tom // thanks, taase vetatzliach!!

gt

Antwerp Tom 08:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
B747 OK got you, we're in the same business, i love to give ma'aser too, it sometimes gives me more satisfaction than the actual deal itself. Tizkeh le'mitsvot.

PA MTD 08:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I'm new here, first time post-er. I'm still learning about the FX market, concentrating on the EUR/USD. I'm playing the resistance at 1.3330 and so far it is working well.

I'm only using a demo account...

GOES B747 08:33 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Tom // very confusing markets; I am EUR/USD short and taking the time for a touch under 1.2950; I hope this will happen still this week or early next week.

in case you get a feeling regarding the markets or hear something from trusted source; I ask you to share with me as I want to have some profits to give some 'ma'asser' for goede doelen...so I thank in advance for helping me to make mitzvaas...it will be also yours!

gt

vancouver johnny_wet_nine 08:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I'm hoping the 1.3330 resistance holds up on the euro.

Still a boat load of bids @ 1.3260. Soooo.....

We shall soon see.

Good luck to all.

slv sam 08:31 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
cad looks stronger today...indicating weak us ccy today imho! so for short term buy cad and sell us$!GT

Antwerp Tom 08:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
B747 Sorry read 1.3318 instead of 1.3218

Antwerp Tom 08:16 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
B747 7:51 GMT LOL, i have no insight for /$ for this week as in these thin market and end of year conditions you get crazy jumps and false breaks all over. Got beaten up several times recently for thinking "welcome correction" and longing $. I capitulated yesterday, took losses before data at 1.3218 (much too early) and reversed for end of January thinking now "the trend is your friend" and don't try to outsmart the trend...hope you're doing well GL

Syd 08:10 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Triple-Day Top Now In Play At 1.3330, Bids 1.3300

SanFrancisco TG 08:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
hahaha, and I thought I was the only one left to step in the pile that never dries in here.

perrie como 08:07 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
seen around some North Korea war threats around during the asean session

maybe just political calls in tension or do you think more behind?

tia

tk jf 08:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
when is a hedge not a hedge ? when a wedge becomes a continuation pattern

gold coast martin 07:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TG...He has got an interesting handle...reminds of a true story ....in an arabic market an arab was standing outside a stall yelling.."hurry,hurry,come and get your fakhari..."...western tourists were of course shocked and astonished at such profanities ,only to be told later by their guide that the arab trader was just a mere rug salesman and he he just wanted to sell his rugs to the tourists!!!!....

KL KL 07:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
ok out gbpusd short at 77 +22 that took care of previous loss. risk still on long still imvho

GOES B747 07:51 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tom // having the truth (of het waarheid) from Belgian police equals for having a singing fish.

what is insight for EUR/USD for the rest of the week?

gt

SanFrancisco TG 07:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hey now, I'd be the first person to pour Amman a cup of beer, all in good flavor and he made a good assessment. On the chf idea, alread long where suggested and in the money so as much money where the mouth is. Smile Stokholm, it prevents wrinkles.

Eilat Dolphin 07:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Aguy/ LOL!

Stockholm AGuy 07:39 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 07:21 GMT:

Regardless of assessment, solid attitude by TG. ;^)

Antwerp Tom 07:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
B747, good morning, sorry missed your post yesterday. You are right, he was no 36 but tried to keep 613, it's still not clear what happened, lots of rumours and fantasies and police not telling what they know so far GL GT

GOES B747 07:33 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
good morning all, hope all will enjoy profitful day and night!

Dolphin, ATC told me to ask you when S/E 1.3120 will show on your sonar screens?....tia.

gt all

SanFrancisco TG 07:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Ok heres one, $chf 1515 probabilities stacked for stalling of downside momentum so if developed lead to longs.

Tallinn viies 07:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
important to see new high. 1,3335 previous day high.
if taken out we can see easily 1,3365

KL KL 07:23 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9299

SanFrancisco TG 07:21 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Regardless of attitude, solid assessment by Amman.

SanFrancisco TG 07:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin - good point, waaay too many hours. Problem is if I provide trading or accurate economic sentiment they are always shot down from overseas. Lately I just slip in observations to avoid the assault of the possessed. Maybe if the conditions change I will provide real time trading recommendations (with disclaimer) :)

Sing GD 07:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Holiday market conditions are starting to kick and the whippy, directionless performance of the USD in Asia today is a good example. The EUR/USD is back close to opening levels after looking very offered down at yesterday"s low around 1.3260. Traders say that it doesn"t take large volumes to move the EUR/USD 20 pips and it will probably get worse as we head into the Christmas/NewYear period. The bounce off of 1.3260 validates the level as key support and there is talk of stops below 1.3250.

From IFR

Be Nimble be quick ..

Sing GD 07:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Now testing BB higher Band EURUSD , first resistance level , also held after US trade numbers last night .. 1.3350 behind ..

If BB hold true we will track lower from here , if not play break at 1.3335 and look to see if 1.3350 barriers get taken out then higher .. may also lead to false break then lower ..

No real trend at moment , just stop hunting and running ..

No position for me today for now ... GL all

Syd 07:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
LA Igrok I would appreciate your view on the Euro if possible are you bearish

SH cv 07:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 06:38 GMT

Thanks, my city is ShangHai

KL KL 07:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin...yep...sometimes 0.0001...LOL...SL taken...if I don't mention it is always 10 pips...rats...reshort higher...hmmm

Eilat Dolphin 07:06 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TG/ Right now, as the only poster from the Western hemisphere, you ought to show greatness!

Gaza Ibiza 07:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
why cant you explain here?

SanFrancisco TG 06:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 06:53 - you are my master. What greatness.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
the dive in euro could happen soon

Eilat Dolphin 06:57 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
KL/ With a pip and a half stop ?

mex sjs 06:56 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
LA Igrok, what is your view for usdchf coming months? TIA

KL KL 06:54 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
fwiw i just shorted eurusd at 133.14...

Amman wfakhoury 06:53 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
As I predifcted eur/usd rised during this hour

Eilat Dolphin 06:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
wfakhouri/ We did get the idea. ;^)

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 06:50 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
hello...
15 Des-04
Eur/usd
Level buy : 1.3125 - 1.3107 – 1.2993 – 1.2964 – 1.2879
Level sell : 1.3343 – 1.3354 – 1.3417 -1.3455 – 1.3477
GBP/usd
Level buy : 1.9147 – 1.9117 - 1.8966 – 1.8949 - 1.8860
Level sell : 1.9357 – 1.9374 – 1.9415 - 1.9423 – 1.9478
Usd/jpy :
Level buy : 104.441 – 104.18 – 104.01- 103.84
Level sell : 106.29 – 106.57 -106.89 – 107.44 – 108.29 – 109.44
Usd/chf
Level buy : 1.1501 – 1.1469- 1.1419 – 1.1407 – 1.1383
Level sell : 1.1724 -1.177- 1.1826 – 1.1868 – 1.1915
Aud /usd
Level buy : 0.7520 – 0.7483 – 0.7454 – 0.7395
Level sell : 0.7691 – 0.7737 – 0.7778
Gold :
Level buy : 430.88 – 430.30 – 433.10 – 434.10
Level sell : 440.70 - 443.66 – 448.10 – 449.88 – 451.17-452.15

Raden Mas

Eilat Dolphin 06:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
sh, Haifa/ Hi! If I may add, there is no way that fx company can gather 130K $ of profit from commision as they do have to take into account that they'll bust all their customers accounts 8 or 9 times out of 10, every month.

Thus they permanently need new customers.

amman wfakhoury 06:45 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Gaza..send me an email..i will explain to u [email protected]

Haifa ac 06:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SH cv 04:44 GMT // Very good response. Must be HAMMERED into suckers head again and again!
Where is SH? South Hampton?

Gaza Ibiza 06:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
how is that a hedge?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:36 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Daily auto orders
Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3419 1.3153 Hold Hold
USDJPY 106.7388 104.4413 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9457 1.9057 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1693 1.1395 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5407 1.5275 Hold Hold
AUDUSD 0.7666 0.7460 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2483 1.2240 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7190 0.6989 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6955 0.6852 Hold Buy
EURJPY 141.2672 138.7917 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 205.2301 201.2823 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 92.2080 90.2787 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2419 2.2059 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7740 1.7375 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6566 1.6279 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9449 0.9216 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 80.6855 78.8797 Sell Buy

Amman wfakhoury 06:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Gaza...you hedge your short buy buy the same currency..or you can short usd/chf

Eilat Dolphin 06:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Happy morning to those 30 to the east of Greenwhich.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Goom Morning all.. :)

Gaza Ibiza 06:09 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
amman wfakhoury 06:03 GMT December 15, 2004
....how did you hedged your short?

Tallinn viies 06:05 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
goodmorning world!
time to move trailing stop to 1,3244 and keep buying euros on downticks (of course selling them out near the highs :)
still believe 1,3455/65 reachable in near future, 48 hours max
good luck and dont miss the euryen train

amman wfakhoury 06:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I predict a rise on EUR/USD during this hour
so I hedged my previous short

Amman wfakhoury 05:54 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
I shorted EUR/USD at 1.3308 take profit 1.3290

SanFrancisco TG 05:41 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Upside for euro and sterling looking tepid here at current levels to me for the moment as noted earlier.

Surabaya Medallion 05:38 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Which mean I hold 50-50 AUD and USD and go on holiday. What do people here think? :)

Surabaya Medallion 05:29 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
So EUR/USD go to 1.30 or 1.35 again? In my opinion, Speculate like this in December is useless.

San Diego DC 05:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$

EUR is poised to retest old high 1.3469 and make new high likely this week or next

Syd 05:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tk jf probably asleep on the keyboard

tk jf 05:17 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
syd think u were out but audcad was the easier one o/n actually 9400 plus was gd resistance and some nice dips in the meantime

Syd 05:08 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD quiet in afternoon trade, muted response to RBA deputy Governor Stevens speech, FOMC, U.S. trade data with market likely to trade current range 'till year end .7500/0.7620, with USD weakness to resume in 2005

Deutsche Bank.

SanFrancisco TG 05:01 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SH cv 04:44 - They advertise because they know there is a sucker born every minute. Same as the 80% return ads I've seen sneeking in here. If you can generate that you are in no way interested in tiny fees for a lot of hastle.

SanFrancisco TG 04:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
1.93 gbp and 1.3320 (+/-) are areas which have held during the week for good short entries.

SH cv 04:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
GreenField JB

if winningforex is real, say 200 pips a week, the fee is 50$.

let's have a look.
now they open an account with 10000$.
keep leverage as 20

first week, they earn 20x200 = 4000, account = 14000
In the second week, they earn 24x200 = 4800 account=18800
....
N weeks later, their account = 10000*(1+40%)^N

N=4, 4 weeks later their account = 3,8416$
N=8, two months later their account = 14,758$
N=12, three months later their account = 56,694$
....
N=26, half year later, their account = 62,998,000$

for half year, they can get the fees for each person 50$*26 = 1300. Assume they have 100 clients, 1300*100 = 130,000

So, why should they spend time to advertise for a little service fee instead of becoming a billionair by themselves???

Hong Kong Qindex 04:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:26 GMT December 15, 2004
EUR/USD : My daily cycle charts indicate that the market is going to vibrate around 1.3296 with an expected magnitude of 1.3246 - 1.3347 for the time being.


... // 1.3246* - 1.3271 - {1.3296} - 1.3322 - 1.3347* // ...

SanFrancisco TG 04:20 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
$chf 1.1500 or slightly under has held all week on many tests.

London. 04:16 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Japan counts on cool culture

Japan's traditional culture may prove key to a dynamic future
The Japanese, according to one of their proverbs, reckon that "bad and good are intertwined like rope
LINK

GreenField JB 04:03 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
the guys at http://www.fx-review.com/
say that http://www.winningforex.com/
is a good fx site

if you follow them you make 200 pips a week,

just want to know if anybody knows them,

thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 04:02 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Sing GD 03:43 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Guys - FWIW - Ranges defined (double no touch mention 1.3200/1.3400 yesterday may have been done and player willing to play ranges) 1.3220/30 and 1.3250/60 well supported , 1.3335 and 1.3350 good solid resistance.

Trading choppy and staying in one hour BB Bands ...

Weaker USD will look to Tic Data tonight ...

No trade for now , question is do you play the range or wait for the break ? TIA

lj gmc 03:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Confidence among Japan's big manufacturers deteriorated for the first time in seven quarters, although their capital spending plans were revised higher, the Bank of Japan's "tankan" survey for December showed on Wednesday.

Suggesting Japan's economic recovery is losing steam amid slower demand for high-tech goods, a strong yen and high oil prices, the survey's headline diffusion index (DI) for big manufacturers slipped to plus 22 from September's plus 26, which was the highest reading since the early 1990s.

It was a touch below a consensus forecast for plus 23 and follows a series of downbeat indicators in the last few months.

Still, economists noted that upward revisions to companies' capital spending plans were good news, and the yen rose more than a quarter percent against the dollar immediately after the data's release.

"The numbers show that the economy is slowing but should not be a surprise as they were within expectations," said Soichi Okuda, a senior economist at Sumitomo Shoji Research Institute.

"We shouldn't be overly pessimistic about the economy. Capex has been revised upward so the economic slowdown isn't having an effect on corporate planning."

Big firms, including non-manufacturers, now expect their capital spending in the business year to March 31 to grow 7.7 percent, rather than by 6.1 percent as they thought in September.

Big manufacturers alone planned to boost spending by 23.4 percent, up from 20.7 percent in September. If realised, that would be the strongest spending since 1988.


SLOWING DOWN

Worries about weaker exports and risks for a stronger yen after a recent climb to five-year highs against the dollar were making companies slightly cautious for now.

The survey showed a further decline in big manufacturers' confidence about the first quarter of 2005, producing an expectation DI of plus 15 for March.

A sentiment DI above zero, on a scale of minus 100 to plus 100, shows more companies felt good about their business than those who felt otherwise.

Economists said steps by China's government to prevent its economy from overheating were gradually dampening Chinese imports of Japanese products -- one of the main drivers of Japan's economic revival of the last few years.

"A year ago we had export growth to China at nearly 40 percent and now it's down to the 10 percent level. That's quite a significant difference in growth," said Uwe Parpart, a senior market strategist at Bank of America in Hong Kong.

All in all, most economists said growth was likely to be slower in the new year.

Japan's top government spokesman admitted the economy was slowing, although it was still seen recovering longer-term.

"We may be at a downturn in the economic cycle, but the overall trend is strong," Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Hosoda told a news conference.

The survey, which covered 10,227 companies, showed that confidence had yet to deteriorate as much as the worst fears.

The December DI for large non-manufacturers was plus 11, unchanged from September and slightly stronger than the median forecast of plus 10. The non-manufacturers' expectation DI for March was plus 10.

The DI for small manufacturers was unchanged in December at plus 5, slightly better than a consensus forecast for plus 3. The index for small non-manufacturers improved to minus 14 from minus 17, defying a forecast for a drop to minus 18.

"The recovery seems to be broadening out nicely to smaller firms, mainly because the banking sector has gotten healthier and their lending has become more accommodative," said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JP Morgan.

The tankan also showed employment improving and expected to improve further in the coming months, which economists said could support domestic consumption -- the biggest chunk of Japan's economy.

The tankan was being watched closely in financial markets for clues on the state of Japan's economy after data earlier this month showed GDP grew only 0.1 percent in July-September compared with the preceding three months.

Tokyo's stock market took relief that the tankan survey came within expectations and the Nikkei average <.N225> was up 0.26 percent at 10,943.52, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds <0#JPTSY=JBTC> was 0.010 percentage point higher at 1.370 percent.

The tankan indices measure sentiment by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting unfavourable conditions from those that say they are favourable. (Additional

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Some small momentum is building here for the bears for the eur/usd pair to try to take out the 3250 support and try to test the key support for now. The numbers have not changed much but here they are with your permission.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3330-40, 3380-3400, 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3480-90 Support T/L 3180-70 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3250-3270, 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3060-80 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Syd 02:44 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Fed funds pricing in about 100% chance of 25bp rate hike in February

Think the Fed will wait to see what the other hikes have done first.

Syd 02:26 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Claudio Piron Forex Research Head Jp Morgan says just now Live on Bloomberg sees Dlr/Yen coming under pressure later today FWIW.

Tokyo IM 01:49 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
G`morning all,tk jf, kl kl.

Los Angeles ss 01:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Gep, your thoughts on cable?

Philadelphia Caba 01:42 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Good evening everyone!

GEP, r'u still short on eurgbp?

KL KL 01:30 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
OUT short eurusd at 1.3307 at 1.3291..+16...what a waste of my time , stress and energy. Ok back to my short term pip trading...that was for almost 8 wasted hours to bear a big mama tasty mango and I got a cherry...taste sour too...sheeze.....waste of time. I think trading may start soon on jpy crosses...all eur and gbp jpy crosses looks so juicy to pluck them...yum....waiting ...waiting

Syd 01:28 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tk jf earth quake special

Syd 01:27 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

GEORGETOWN, Cayman Islands (AP)--An earthquake struck the Cayman Islands on Tuesday - the strongest since 1900 - rattling windows and sending residents fleeing into the streets, according to islanders and the U.S. Geological Survey.

The tremor registered 6.7 on the Richter scale, according to Kathleen Gohn, a spokeswoman for the U.S. Geological Survey based in Golden, Colo.

"I got out of my house as fast as I could. I thought a plane was coming at us," said Maxine Drake from Hallifax, Nova Scotia, who resides part time in Grand Cayman.

The initial quake lasted about 10 seconds, and small shock waves were felt for more than a half-hour, residents said. No serious damage or injuries had been reported.

The epicenter of the earthquake was located 20 miles south-southeast of Georgetown. It was the strongest tremor to hit the Cayman Islands since 1900, Gohn said.

It was also one of several to strike the region in the last month, but Gohn said the tremors were unrelated. Activity in the Caribbean, however, has been high, she said.

A tremor with a magnitude of 5.7 jolted the British Virgin Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. No injuries were reported and there was little damage.

Another earthquake with a magnitude of 5.4, however, caused at least 90 aftershocks on Dec. 3 in Trinidad, leaving at least one woman dead and damaging several buildings and houses.

Last month, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake on the Caribbean island of Dominica caused an estimated US$20 million worth of damages.

The Cayman Islands has been plagued with disaster this year, recently releasing an estimate of hurricane damage caused by Hurricane Ivan at more than US$3 billion.

The storm tore through the wealthy U.K. territory in September, destroying 70% of buildings and damaging many hotels. Many residents were forced to move to Grand Cayman's sister islands -Little Cayman and Cayman Brac -which received little damage.

Syd 01:25 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tk jf posted it on the Financial Page --->>>

tk jf 01:22 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
syd- i cant go in there except to use atm - slight language problem

Syd 01:16 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
tk jf well I think if Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has its way with the Post Office privatisation , it will feel like they are having one, apparently the whole of the workforce are against it

tk jf 01:13 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Syd 01:12 GMT December 15, 2004
no more earthquake ones

Syd 01:12 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Huge amounts of money will be diverted into other investments .. if this goes ahead
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has described the establishment of Japan Post as the "first step toward privatization of the postal services
Launching of Japan Post Heralds Change in Status of Postal Services from State-Run to State-Owned

lon jr 01:04 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
my trend watcher..long doll yen..long doll sf...long cable..long euro'..it feels like crossover. (last time doll sf lead move). theres plenty stops now 13250...think we see new range nxt week for a good 2-3 big figs, somethings sure building up here for creshendo

SH cv 00:58 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ

total agree, if 1.3399-3400 get through, we may see 1.3570

Atl TJ 00:52 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
SH cv

IMO if the Euro gets t 1.3400 then this minature correction will be over. Look for new highs at that point.

SH cv 00:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD may go up for a spike in european session before going down, 1.3380

Syd 00:48 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Aussie lower on Aud/Yen sales in Asia

lj gmc 00:46 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
i think and HOPE eur/usd must go down.......

Springdale BDH 00:32 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GMC :)

sf mike 00:24 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

lj gmc 00:19 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   

FOREX-Dollar's gains cut as Fed signals gradual rate hikes


(Updates prices, adds comment)

By Gertrude Chavez

NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The dollar's gains were clipped on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the fifth time this year, as expected, but quashed hopes for more aggressive rate tightening.

Higher or more rapidly rising interest rates tend to support the dollar, since they boost yields for some U.S.-based assets such as short-term debt, enhancing their appeal to global investors.

In lifting interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 2.25 percent, the Fed said in a statement after its meeting that U.S. monetary policy remains accommodative and that the stimulus to the economy provided can be removed at a "measured" pace. It also said that while robust underlying growth in productivity is supporting U.S. economic activity, inflation expectations "remain well-contained."

"There was no hint of a more aggressive Fed here," said Firas Askari, head of foreign exchange trading at BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto.

"They didn't really inject any risk about inflation. I think the Fed was a little wary of adding fuel to the dollar's rally," he added.

By late afternoon in New York, the euro traded nearly flat at $1.3300 , after being on the defensive virtually all morning.

Against the yen, the dollar trimmed its gains, trading at 105.51 yen , up 0.6 percent, after rising above 106 yen last week from a five-year trough near 101.80 yen set earlier this month. "The market got exactly what it wanted from the Fed announcement. It reacted the way it was supposed to given the expectations built in, which was nothing," said Joe Francomano, director of foreign exchange at Erste Bank in New York.

"The dollar was still well within the day's ranges. So really from a foreign exchange standpoint, today's (Fed) decision was a big non-event," he added.

The euro rose to an 18-month high above 140.0 yen , according to Reuters data, as traders took out options barriers at that level. Traders said the currency pair could surpass a record high of around 140.91 before year-end.

Recent soft Japanese data, as well as a forecast drop in the December Tankan survey of businesses, due on Wednesday, have sapped investor appetite for the yen, dealers said.

The dollar was also little changed against the Swiss franc at 1.1539 francs . Sterling rose to $1.9286 .

Earlier on Tuesday the dollar escaped a battering after news the U.S. trade deficit widened in October to a record $55.5 billion from a downwardly revised $50.9 billion in September.

The dollar also reacted little to news that U.S. industrial output rose 0.3 percent in November, in line with market expectations, following a surge in mining production.

On Wednesday, the market will focus on the Treasury's report on capital inflows to the United States. Concern that the U.S. economy might fail to attract sufficient funds to cover its current account gap has knocked the dollar hard in recent weeks.

September's data showed net capital inflows of $63.4 billion.

"Now that (the FOMC) is out of the way, people will come back to the structural headwinds for the dollar," said Paresh Upadhyaya, portfolio manager at Putnam Investments in Boston. "We need more and more foreign inflows to continue to finance our current account deficit."


Springdale BDH 00:00 GMT December 15, 2004 Reply   
What's going on with the EUR/USD?

 




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