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Forex Forum Archive for 12/16/2004

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Eilat Dolphin 23:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Syd/ Predicting the fall of an "unnamed company" reminds me of a famous French astrologer that predicts popes death with perfect accuracy...

What the story does not tell, is that she writes a daily letter (time stamped on arrival) to the Patent & Intellectual Property Office a year ahead.

Ltn th 23:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Interesting report in the Australian Breaking news section) where Kyriakopoulos of NAB suggests that market has already priced in a rate cut in Oz. What constitutes a neutral rate? Last time we had similar economic conditions in the country around 3.5% was considered normal. Kyriakopoulos suggests that if prospects of rate cut were unwound then audusd would receive a boost. What crap! A rare cut would offer vastly better returns to real money investors than any paltry intrest rate increase as investment is leveraged throught a buoyant and thriving economy. The conclusion that NAB portfolios and policies are still unbalanced seems inescapable and they are talking their book again.

Syd 23:18 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   

While we are at the doom and gloom reports, here is a beauty
but Bernstein always was another Mr. gloom

Merrill strategist Bernstein: 10 Surprises for '05
LInk
Richard Bernstein, chief U.S. strategist at Merrill Lynch, the largest U.S. stock broker, predicts an unidentified "major financial company" will be brought to its knees in 2005 by rising interest rates

Eilat Dolphin 23:17 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Syd: or be sued, so as to reimbourse a loosing position...

Eilat Dolphin 23:16 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London/ If a supertanker didn't sink in the Suez canal in the last four years, the odds of it happening next month are real low... especilly that "History Bin" has been begging "his people" to do his deeds every other month for the last three years.

It's funny that some media keep saying the "he may send secret codes of action in his tapes".
Since when does a beggar send a secret code ?

Syd 23:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
dolphin they should shoot the script writer :-)

oslo oskar 23:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Syd 22:54 GMT

accentuate the negative, ignore the positive

we shall see how the market really feels after Jan 1

Eilat Dolphin 23:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Syd 2254/ Interesting, but there is a mistake in the tenth paragraph when a "Stephanson BIG BANK BLOKE" says that the US imports 50% more than it imports. I think he meant 5%...

lj gmc 23:11 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
i ask my friend about that how can make a link.
must see live performance for that.
thanks for help.

London. 23:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Apparent Bin Laden Tape Urges Attacks Vs Oil Supplies-BBC
The speaker urged Islamic militants to stop Westerners from obtaining Middle Eastern oil, saying such a blow would be fatal to the West.

"Try your best to stop the biggest theft in history," the speaker said of the West's purchase of Arab oil.

He accused the West of buying the oil far too cheaply, saying the world price had fallen several times while the prices of other commodities had doubled.

"Today it's price should be at least $100" a barrel, he said.

"Go on and try to prevent them (Westerners) from getting oil," the speaker told militants. "Concentrate your operations on that, especially in Iraq and the Gulf."

The speaker didn't give specific targets in the oil industry.
Associated Press

Livingston nh 22:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
From the Help Forum ---

Mtl JP 18:03 GMT July 17, 2003
Spot / how to make LinK --
the link go to http://www.pagetutor.com/pagetutor/makapage/lesson12.html

Syd 22:54 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
For those who liked the look of the lower-than-expected third-quarter current account deficit, announced Thursday, look again.

The headline figure of a $164.7 billion deficit was certainly better than the expected $171 billion shortfall. Yet analysts say that while the data suggests the current account gap may not get much bigger, there's little to indicate it's set to shrink.

That's a clear negative for the dollar, which has fallen sharply in recent weeks because of deficit concerns. Data this week indicating the U.S. is finding it harder to finance the current account gap in the fourth quarter only add to a bearish picture for the currency.

Thursday's current account data did contain some good news for deficit hawks. The most important wads the upswing in net foreign direct investment into the U.S. FDI improved to $9.6 billion from a revised $22.7 billion deficit in the second quarter. That's the first net inflow since the first quarter of 2001. Foreigners invested $53.1 billion in the third quarter, from $32.6 billion in the second quarter.

There was a fall in net unilateral current transfers. These outflows, which include foreign aid and remittances, totaled $14.6 billion in the third quarter, from $18.3 billion the previous quarter.

The other positive was that exports of goods continued to grow, reaching $204.6 billion, from $199.3 billion the previous quarter. With the dollar falling sharply since Oct. 1, exports should carry on rising.

Yet these positives should be set in context. While the deficit was below expectations, it set a new record in dollar terms, topping the $164.4 billion second-quarter shortfall. The deficit represents 5.6% of gross domestic product. That's well above the 5% of GDP level that Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has cited as a danger zone triggering a current account readjustment in other countries and other periods of U.S. history.

It's also not clear how significant the third-quarter positive stories are. Kathleen Stephansen, director of global economics at CSFB in New York, says net FDI has shown steady growth since its "trough" of mid-2003. Yet Robert Mellman, senior U.S. economist at JP Morgan Chase, says the money flowing in is not new investments but foreign companies providing money for their subsidiaries in the U.S. It's unclear whether that is to expand activities or to help out troubled local units.

Mellman also says the reduction in net transfers was a one-off - a result of foreign insurance companies making payments to U.S. companies for damage caused by the hurricanes. Others note that the transfers tend to rise in the fourth quarter when foreigners send home savings to their families around Christmas.

The export increase is a plus, but CSFB's Stephansen points out that since the U.S. imports some 50% more than it exports, foreign sales must start to increase much more quickly than imports do for the trade gap to narrow. Imports of goods grew to $371.3 billion in the third quarter, from $362 billion.

Deficit May Steady, Won't Shrink
Looking to the fourth quarter, the deficit could well expand. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that the deficit hit a record $54.46 billion in October, as oil prices reached a high above $55 per barrel. Prices have since fallen, but the average spot price is about 10% higher higher in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Many analysts believe the deficit will stay around its current levels in 2005. The U.S. economy is expected to continue growing considerably faster than its Japanese and Euro zone counterparts. And no one can rule out a fresh spike in oil prices. Meanwhile, the dollar's decline may not chop much from the current account, as long as China maintains its effective currency peg. The U.S. bilateral deficit with China was $16.8 billion in October, almost a third of the month's total and analysts expect the U.S. to continue to run a big deficit as long as the yuan sticks to current values. Many other Asian countries are expected to continue holding down their currencies, as long as the Chinese yuan remains at current levels. In total, Asia makes up around 50% of the U.S. deficit.
As a result, says Stephansen, "I think it's fairly certain that the deficit will remain in the 5%-5.5% area as a percentage of GDP" next year. This means there is no end in sight to concerns that the current account deficit will cause the dollar to tank, converting an orderly decline into a disorderly one. In a worst case scenario, that could set off a selloff in bond and equity markets, push interest-rates higher and slow the economy. The key to avoiding this scenario is if investors from abroad continue to fund the current account deficit by lending freely to the U.S. government, corporates and consumers. That's where the data is starting to look worrying.
On Wednesday, Treasury International Capital system flow data showed foreigners recorded net purchases of U.S. securities totaling $48.1 billion in October. That's the smallest amount in a year. It was due in part to increased U.S. investment in foreign equities - a trend many analysts believe will continue - and partly to a fall in foreign purchases of U.S. corporate bonds. In addition, the previously massive purchases of U.S. assets by foreign central banks have slowed sharply. These purchases totaled $51.7 billion in the third quarter, compared with $117 billion in the first quarter. All this creates a nasty cocktail for the dollar.
"The TICS data is now below the level of the trade gap for the first time I can remember. This clearly blows an ill wind (for the dollar) as we head into 2005," said Andy Busch, global foreign exchange strategist at Harris Nesbitt

global economics at CSFB /DJ

Dublin ColumK 22:52 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 15:53 GMT March 30, 2004
How to post a link: here's the code:
easy as 1 2 3 4 5 6. Put each element right next to the other, NO spaces and don't put in the numbers or periods either. It should be one continuous string:

1. <
2. a href="http://www.put_rest_of_your_URL_here" target="_blank"
3. >
4. text link of your choice
5. <
6./a>

The good part about this link code is that it doesn't swap the page you're going to for the forum page you are on now...it pops up a new window t hanks to the target="_blank" code string.

Dublin ColumK 22:52 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Lads,

Do a search for Quito Valdez 15:53 GMT March 30, 2004 on the help forum, he has a great 1 to 6 step process for posting links. Very good examples.

Summary as follows:

text link here

Eilat Dolphin 22:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London 22:41/ Hi! Where did you find this SNB news ?

Dublin ColumK 22:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Melody 21:43 GMT December 16, 2004

Howdo Melody,

Sorry for the delay I was watching an old "Only Fools and Horses" ageless comedy.

Yep, im in Ireland. Stillorgan to be exact. I take it your a Paddy also. There are a token handful (which are either Irish or located in Ireland) on boths sides of this forum, giving valuable information.

wellington am 22:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
ok then:
<a href="foobar.com"> Link Name (i.e. Foobar) </a>

GVI john 22:44 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
if I type in the code it will turn into a link

wellington am 22:43 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
test >

London. 22:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
SNB said Thursday it had cut a share of its dollar reserves in favor of euros and pounds

lj gmc 22:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
thank you john i will try but not understand exactly

GVI john 22:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hard to explain without turning in to a link. But follow that code exactly, spacing quotes. etc.

GVI john 22:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Let me try this. The code for a link is:
bx xxxx="global-view.com"> Click here
where b= < and x xxxx = a href

PA MTD 22:28 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Melody

Thanks for that link, it was very informative. I already knew a little bit about moving averages, but now I can implement them into fx with better confidence. Also, I use them in the stock market, which has helped me out tremendously.

lj gmc 22:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Please someone explain me hove can make a LINK for
longer stories becouse i don t wan t take too much space
in the forum and i can give some fresh update data from
reuters thx.. I wiss nice and of the year to all..

Sydney 22:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Interesting read while its quiet

As dollar dives, Asian policy gains on power meter

REUTERS[ THURSDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2004 11:30:33 PM]
SINGAPORE: As China ascends and the dollar falls, the balance of power in global financial markets is destined to shift slowly but surely in Asia’s direction. Although loose currency and monetary co-ordination will condemn Asia to punch below its economic weight for a long time to come, traders’ obsession with the region’s $2.35 trillion pile of reserves is one indication of its influence. That influence grows in tandem with America’s current account deficit: Asia’s addiction to excess savings feeds America’s addiction to excess consumption. But Asia’s growing clout also reflects its success in dusting itself off after a 1997-98 crisis sent the region’s currencies toppling like dominoes, triggering a harrowing recession. Rob Subbaraman of Lehman Brothers in Tokyo says Asia, spurred by growing self-confidence, is emerging decisively from the shadow of the crisis: currencies will rise as much as 10-20%, domestic demand will bloom and non-Japan Asia’s current account surplus, now 4.1% of GDP, will shrink, he says. “Our outlook is that ’05 will be the biggest inflection point for the region since the Asian crisis — in various ways, it will be like the Asian crisis in reverse,” he wrote in a research report. Underscoring non-Japan Asia’s rapidly mounting importance for the rest of the world, Lehman expects its domestic demand in dollar terms will draw level with Japan’s in ’06. Where economics leads, politics follows.
Call it a coincidence, but days after 13 Asian leaders agreed to hold the first East Asian Summit – 13 years after Washington quashed the idea – a regional financial group that included the US decided to wind itself up. The Manila Framework Group was formed at the height of the Asian crisis to promote financial stability and exchange views between Asia and the West. “When the group was formed, I think US officials did not want Asian countries to decide everything without them knowing,” a source close to the group’s talks said. Asia wanted to put its own house in order and pushed for the creation of an Asian Monetary Fund to tackle the crisis. Washington again crushed the idea, fearing a loss of influence. Asia, dependent on emergency loans from the Western-dominated IMF, backed down. Now, the boot is on the other foot. Not only have the states bailed out by the IMF – Thailand, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines – repaid their loans and shown the fund the door, but Washington turned to China for help in reducing its trade deficit by inviting it in October to a meeting of of the Group of Seven rich nations. All the while, Asia has strengthened commercial ties, notably through a plan to slash tariffs between Southeast Asia and China by ’10 to create a 1.8bn-strong free trade area. It is easy to exaggerate Asia’s cohesion. Non-tariff barriers to regional trade remain daunting. Central banks are joining forces to develop Asia’s bond markets, but the drive for closer monetary co-operation, based on the ’00 Chiang Mai Initiative’s web of central bank currency swaps, has stalled. “The path to Asean economic integration has been strewn with good intentions that have not been fulfilled,” complains Rodolfo Severino, a former secretary-general of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Still, Asia’s growing economic confidence is stirring a heated policy debate among US academics.
Bernard Gordon, a professor at the University of New Hampshire, wrote in the Asian Wall Street Journal that, by excluding the United States and promoting a world divided into trade blocs, East Asian integration ran counter to US economic and strategic interests. But Francis Fukuyama, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, urged President George W Bush not to obstruct the evolution of new constellations of Asian countries. “Whether Washington likes it or not, the countries of eastern Asia will probably increase their formal multilateral economic co-operation without giving the US a seat at the table,” Mr Fukuyama wrote in the International Herald Tribune. This is the backdrop for another bubbling debate as to whether the dollar’s decline under the weight of America’s budget and trade deficits will eventually end its supremacy as the world’s undisputed reserve currency. Opinions inevitably differ. What is clear is that uncertainty over how to reduce global imbalances increases the risk of financial market accidents and of strains among policy makers. Washington is pressing China to let the yuan float higher, but Beijing is aware of the painful consequences for Japan after Tokyo acceded to a similar US demand for revaluation in the mid-1980s to help narrow the US current account deficit. Nearly 20 years after it signed the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan is still suffering from low growth and deflation that have their roots partly in the sharp yen rise initiated at the Plaza. Japan, then as now, was a close political ally of the US. China, despite thickening economic ties, is not. “I personally see more discord than accord,” said Stephen Jen, Morgan Stanley’s currency economist. “America’s desire to see a new Plaza Accord... will likely be resisted by the rest of the world.”

Sydney 22:08 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
May be able to get in that way

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/961410.censored

Philadelphia Caba 22:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
For GVI Forum:

F*X*C*M platform memo:
Please be advised that the trading desk will maintain the following hours in light of the forthcoming holidays:

Friday, December 24: Market closes at 4:00PM. The market will not reopen until Sunday, December 26, at 7:00 PM.

Friday, December 31: Market closes at 4:00PM. The market will not reopen until Monday, January 3, at 2:00 AM.

All times listed are Eastern Standard Time (time in New York).

Sydney 22:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
As dollar dives, Asian policy gains on power meter
LINK

interesting artilce here.

Dublin Melody 22:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

http://www.stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_movingAvg.html

PA MTD 21:58 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I see it now, thank you for helping me. two quick questions: is that the simple MA or exponential MA, and what does that tell me as a forex trader with the MA's?

Dublin Melody 21:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I mean Daily Chart,

I guess you are using 4H chart

PA MTD 21:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
even that it's nowhere close to 1.3165. Am I missing something? Could you type out how you have your chart set up?

Dublin Melody 21:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, 30 MA

PA MTD 21:52 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I know what it says, but how do you get that? On my chart it is at 1.3336

Dublin Melody 21:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Moving Average 60 of EURUSD is about 1.3165

PA MTD 21:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Melody

what does that mean or tell us?

Dublin Melody 21:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
1.3165 is the same as MA 60

Dublin Melody 21:43 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi ColumK ,

R U in Ireland ?

lj gmc 21:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
*Offshore range roughly $0.7530/7670
*The Australian dollar fell sharply in offshore trading,
dropping around a U.S. cent at one stage as the U.S. dollar
posted a relief rally after a feared sharp blow-out in the U.S.
current account deficit failed to materialise.
*At 7:51 a.m. (2051 GMT) the AUD was $0.7570/73
compared with $0.7642/47 late here on Thursday and dropped as low
as $0.7530 overnight according to Reuters data.
*The U.S. current account widened slightly in the third
quarter to a record $164.71 billion from a downward revised
$164.4 billion shortfall in the second quarter and after
forecasts had centred on a $170 billion gap.
*Other U.S. data also lent support to the USD with a jump in
business activity and jobless claims falling at their fastest
pace since December 2001.
*Against this backdrop the Aussie struggled after touching a
high for the week of 76.70 cents, but shy of a breach of 77
cents, which was seen by some strategists as putting a more
positive outlook on the currency.
*The Aussie had dropped to a six-week low of 74.42 cents last
week in the wake of a series of generally weak data, and a
blow-out in its own current account deficit.
*There is no major data due on Friday.

LA Fxnew 21:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
KL ...
seems today is a good trading day for you...

how many pips did u ride for cable?

Syd 21:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
The big news for the Australian Dollar is likely to be in the first half of 2005, when China is expected to ease currency controls - probably in the form of a band widening - providing another fillip "If the story of 2005 is reduced FX intervention and putting on the agenda a shift toward a currency basket system rather than single U.S. dollar pegs, then it means they (Asian central banks) have to diversify out of their U.S. dollars reserves and into other currencies, and the Australian dollar will be part of that basket," Schuman said.
At some stage next year China is expected to ease its rigid controls on the yuan exchange rate that keep daily trade in the currency within a very slender band around 8.277 to the U.S. dollar.

Alex Schuman, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank.
expects the Australian dollar to peak at US$0.8200 in the first half of 2005, before returning to US$0.7600 by the end of the year as slowing global growth leads to softer commodity prices.
DJ.

GOES B747 21:10 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
thanks alimin,
any idea for a range?

tia & gt

Makassar Alimin 21:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 21:00 GMT December 16, 2004

after what we have seen so far and being friday asian session, i dont expect much movement till london opens

KL KL 21:02 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
ok today TA charts maybe a bit helpful for entry exit for me...apart from that gbpusd almost retrace 300 pips from top and no charts would have gave you any warning either. If I were long long term from 1.925x to 1.955x..then back to start...I know I will be kicking my self silly...LOL..shut eyes now till Asia booring time. My long gbpusd letting it run from 1.93...tempted to take the 15 on offer and just sleep...ok lock in 3 pips and having a zzzzzzzz

GOES B747 21:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
yes alimin.
what is your forecast for EUR/USD regarding the next 3HRS?

tia & gt

Makassar Alimin 20:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
B747, are you still holding your euro short possies? how about the yen ones?

Makassar Alimin 20:39 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 20:29 GMT December 16, 2004

well KL, tech analysis of the chart is related to market psychology, if previous support has been working really well and then price breaks that support, thatś significant to those who follow the analysis
it might not make sense to you, but it makes sense to others like me
gt

sx ted 20:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well done KL

wellington am 20:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Gareth Morgan (NZ Economist) on NZ's growing current account deficit:

Dining out on the spoils

KL KL 20:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Come on, euro is not struggling, no currency is fighting to stay at certain level...the truth is we are the ones struggling and fighting to understand what on earth is the charts telling us. Today is make no sense day..My trades the short term also makes no sense but made me $$$ been a good day for me ..looking at bigger Turkey for Christmas...LOL

Makassar Alimin 20:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
B747, only if euro closes below the 20 MA mate which at the moment on my chart is 1.3237
looks like it is fighting for it now

GOES B747 20:11 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
hi alimin,

mate, did you flip to become a USD bull?

gt

Makassar Alimin 20:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
euro is struggling to regain the position above 20 MA on daily chart, it has proved to be a very good support so far since the rally started, so it will be very significant also should we close under the MA IMHO

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 20:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
ausiie short for 7480

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 19:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable short for 100 points

GER ad 19:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
Out at 1.3238
Will buy 1.3210 if seen

Dublin ColumK 19:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
From last night,

"Dublin ColumK 00:20 GMT December 16, 2004

.......Ive calculated some turning points using a COBWEB theory. All the indicators need to be confirmed for the pattern to be valid.......3 week time horizon.

EUR/USD 1ST Turning point 1.3165 (+/- 25) "On its way"
EUR/USD 2nd Turning point 1.3421 (+/- 25)

GBP/USD 1ST Turning point 1.9057 (+/- 40) "On its way"
GBP/USD 2nd Turning point 1.9425 (+/- 40)

USD/CHF 1ST Turning point 1.1620 (+/- 25) "Nearly there"
USD/CHF 2nd Turning point 1.1437 (+/- 25)

USD/CAD 1ST Turning point 1.1657 (+/- 33) "Ill call a golfing mulligans on this one - Ill strike another ball as provisional - heading off target"
USD/CAD 2nd Turning point 1.2473 (+/- 33)

6 WEEK HORIZON
EUR/AUD 1ST Turning point 1.6677 (+/- 180) "Early doors"
EUR/AUD 2nd Turning point 17613 (+/- 180)

Rgds,

CK

Tallinn viies 19:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 19:14 - at b/e didnt take hit

GER ad 19:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry,
R1 1.3270

GER ad 19:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
leeds jb 19:05,
Here are my number for EUR/USD
R4 1.3380
R3 1.3330
R2 1.3300
S1 1.3210
S2 1.3190
S3 1.3170
S4 1.3140
But check in archive Qindex (his number are mostly better)

GOES B747 19:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
viies; sorry to hear that you took a hit...I am sure that you will manage go over this hit mate.

gt

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 19:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hello All !!
Today is nice chart.see my post today. I hope you can get something from there to help your trade decision.
BTW.. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Welcome to the succes year 2005 for you.

Raden Mas
Ciaooooo.... :-)

Syd 19:10 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
FOMC Minutes: See Major Uncertainties On Energy, Budget
Underlying Inflation To Stay 'Contained'
Energy, Weak Dlr Cited As Inflation Risks
Policy 'Increasingly' Tied To Econ Data
Members Foresee 'Continued Solid Growth'
Hiring To Pick Up Amid Brisk Econ Growth
Dollar's Decline Seen Boosting US Exports
See Major Uncertainties On Energy, Budget

Tallinn viies 19:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
due to move under previous day low closed my short euro for a moment at 1,3222.
will buy at lower levels again near 1,3150. or if 1,3275 re gained

Makassar Alimin 19:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
re 18:57 GMT post, letś say the first target to be lower bollinger band, from there we will see how the momentum plays out, the key for me is closing price today but also bear in mind we still have friday to determine the weekly closing price, at the moment though weekly chart has started to give early sign of selling euro but whether this is just a correction or the start of new trend remains to be seen, good luck guys

Alicante RTN 19:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable is trying to retake the old support level at 1.9280. If this fails, cable may fall 100+ more pips rather quickly.

leeds jb 19:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
hi guys,m i`m new here. where can i get a list of support and resistance levels for the four majors, or how do you work them out. tia

Halifax CB 19:02 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dolphi - I think (as it's been beaten into me by a number of regular posters here) that the big flow that drove the USDCAD down was hedging from the states. Now they want to get out; it'll be intersting to see if it becomes a stampede. I hope so, I only deal on the US markets so every profit I've had gets eaten by the falling USD.....

London Alex 19:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC - you are right, it is the lack of liquidity driving this move. The real test will be if we take out last week's low of 1.3150ish. If that breaks, then we can see a rebound all the way down to 1.30, however, keep in mind, January will see the return of the real money funds esp CBD, and they are the ones who have been driving this euro, not the specs. The euro went up these past weeks even while spec euro long positions were being cut. so expect a sharp rebound in early Jan when shops reopen for business. For now, watch and see how many specs decide to bail so they can have a peaceful Xmas...

Halifax CB 18:58 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanksk you sf; I just wish I had made some money on it :)

Eilat Dolphin 18:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC/ But wait, don't they have books to square, up in Canada ?

Makassar Alimin 18:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
euro closing under 1.3237 means sell on rallies for me from now on, targetting 1.30 first

Eilat Dolphin 18:56 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
NYC/ Wise! Now it makes more sense, I didn't take that into account.

sf mike 18:54 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Halifax// good call yesterday on usdjpy.

NYC 18:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat - it has more to do with lack of liquidity at a time of year when traders are looking to square up for the holidays than the news.

Eilat Dolphin 18:52 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Victor/ true for the peace, I call it Bush' shadow.

As for the Euro, it's overplayed by the hours charts, as the Cad may hint, so I feel confident keeping on till Asia at least.
But then, tomorrow is another game which may continue on the 4H course for a while.

However that E fall is (was) remarkable.

Halifax CB 18:51 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
good luck ger ad; we are still getting strong sell signals on the euro, though I'm not going in again until it clears 1.3197, the open for the week. Then I think the bottom has a good chance of dropping right out.....

AMMAN WFAKHOURY 18:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
ok everyone..see you tmw
good luck
bye bye

Eilat Dolphin 18:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
fxq/ How many times a year do we see a 200 pips move on the type of news (mixed) we got ?

prague viktor 18:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 18:26 GMT December 16, 2004....can we ee another floor to fall or for today its okay at this level..btw mate seems ur lovely country will see the peace after long time of wars ..and this another reason to long the the usd for the long run..G/T

prague viktor 18:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 18:26 GMT December 16, 2004....can we ee another floor to fall or for today its okay at this level..btw mate seems ur lovely country will see the peace after long time of wars ..and this another reason to long the the usd for the long run..G/T

Ldn 18:44 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP)--The National Guard needs $20 billion in vehicles, radios and other equipment over the next three years to perform all the overseas and homeland security missions it's being assigned, the chief of the Guard said Thursday.

Lt. Gen. H. Steven Blum told reporters at the Pentagon that the Army Guard is seeking $7 billion in equipment in an emergency spending measure to pay for U.S. military operations overseas

Amman wfakhoury 18:43 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat
I am planning for that..ready to share you

dc fxq 18:42 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
From MNI:

"..major risk now is a break of 13200 which could trigger model fund sales ..."

Eilat Dolphin 18:40 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
wfakhouri/ I hope you made three tons of money!

Amman wfakhoury 18:39 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
you chk them all..they are six...all of them right
3 for today..and 3 for yestrday

Amman wfakhoury 18:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat
all my predict were right

GER ad 18:33 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD
long at 1.3216 tight S/L

Eilat Dolphin 18:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Amman/ This one you got right!

Eilat Dolphin 18:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
lon/Make it two floors...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
92 for cable

Eilat Dolphin 18:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
lon/ see, there was another floor to fall...

NYC Bud Fox 18:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hope you all sold the "dog with fleas" as suggested earlier

NYC Bud Fox 02:38 GMT December 16, 2004
euro top for this year is coming up at 1.3420. maximum at 1.3450 based on descending lines on 8 hr chart

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Might see it there soon
chf ok and yen need a little but cad..(?)

lon jr 18:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Ok thks dolph

Eilat Dolphin 18:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrein/ Cad sure does surprize. I shorted the $ a couple when it was going outrageously toon fast, but I expected to see the 24 figure printed much sooner...

Eilat Dolphin 18:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
lon/ No, the the E/$ will girate with an amplitude of +- 20 pips or so from 13260, and will search for its equilibrium around here with a tendency to lean/follow its 4H candel chart.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:08 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Cad...Funny...
Might go up

lon jr 18:08 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Which means what dolphin?? we stop here??

Eilat Dolphin 18:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
If I may predict too, we have just entered the flag formation of the end of day.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 18:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Selling $ Now

Eilat Dolphin 17:59 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Amman/ Cheers, I have seen both.

KL KL 17:59 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
sl taken long again at 1.9310 sl 11 below -7 now...have to take a possie...just have to in my trading style!!

Amman wfakhoury 17:59 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat
please see my 16:57

Amman wfakhoury 17:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD will proceed it move down this hour

Eilat Dolphin 17:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Amman/ In 15:57 you said the the euro will rise..

There used to be a Pitie in Delphy that used to make good predictions, but that was so long ago.
Let's ask Athens.

Halifax CB 17:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q - sometime I'd love to have a chat with you re. your system (or at least the non-proprietary part, I don't want to tread on your toes). But harmonic (cycle) analysis is very fascinating, and coming from a background in it as applied to other disciplines (ocean acoustics, electroquasistatics), it seems that in finance it is still a wide open subject. Maybe GV could use a tech talk board, so others wouldn't be bothered. Do you have any publications other than what's on your website? Anyway, GL -

Before I forget - for euro bulls - the euro has only a little ways to go to be below this week's open, and if that doesn't hold on friday it'll be the second euro down week. Pretty unusual behaviour...

Amman wfakhoury 17:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
As I predicted EUR moved down more than 30 pips

KL KL 17:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well i am out of the short from 64 at 1.9321...+43...sl 7 below - SAR and long here. Understand this is not a trending market...I do not have any long term bias position..I position trade biasly..very short term...LOL

Eilat Dolphin 17:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
spotforex:and When the moon "hits" Venus into the new dawn, shall they make kids (or Lesbians just can't), and if so, what influence will it have on Berlusconi/Bush ?

Hong Kong Qindex 17:42 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 17:38 GMT - EUR/USD : I can see it is very technical in my system.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 17:38 GMT - Cheers!

Spotforex NY 17:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
exactly Q....The three moon cross over seen on Jupiter this morning was a big give-a-way on the heaviness of the euro.

Eilat Dolphin 17:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Quindex/ True, at least these bodies aren't nervous. Sun is pretty close right now, 147M Km. Normal December, he is stable too. Need a graph ? ;^)

Hong Kong Qindex 17:33 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 17:15 GMT - When we examine the movement of celestial bodies and the half-life period of radioactive decay are all natural phenomenon in our universal.

Eilat Dolphin 17:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
KL/ Not to add your last one...

Eilat Dolphin 17:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
KLKL 15:07/ You just won the MAPD price! (Most Amusing Post of the Day.)

First you say you go flat throw all TA out because of the Nervous Nellies ( that means me and us guys) waiting for lower levels, and seven minutes later you are back long again.

KL KL 17:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I am out again at 1.9341 +20 short higher or long lower...I have no clue now..ok will short around 55-65...first take pips and run!!

lon jr 17:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
i mean they sold 134 20-30 earlier today

lon jr 17:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Usual asian guys 1.3260-70 buying euros (think 134.20-300 overnight and this morn in europe

Livingston nh 17:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
interesting that despite the near universal disdain for economists by traders so many folks rely on "economic truths" (in all cases if A then B) to try to explain the movement of the various currencies - interest rate effects, trade deficit/surplus, budgets - what really will happen if the world doesn't "fund" the profligate US? What if US cuts imports by 15% - is that really good? WHY can't Japan recover? Remember, Trichet and Greenspan are just government employees

Hong Kong Qindex 17:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 17:15 GMT - Determing the right rhythm is the primary role of my system. e.g. GBP/USD : The current market rhytm is represented by 150 pips; EUR/USD : The current market rhythm is represented by 189 pips.

Spotforex NY 17:17 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
FF members...please visit the GVI online store for your limited edition bungee cord.......

fits around either the ankle, wrist or neck!!!!!


Supplies are limited!!!!!!!!

KL KL 17:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I am long again at 1.9321...just using very short term charts...some distribution happening. This long may cause me to lose 7 pips...yet I need to take a position here since it is near the low...momentum is powerful now to see this gorilla around the 1.9260 area..lets see

Sofia NYK 17:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Quindex// "Taking a rythm" is not at all scientific term, even in TA, if it could be considered a science.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 17:04 GMT - It doesn't bother me at all as long as my system can find the right rhythm.

KL KL 17:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
out at 59 +20 from long at 1.9339...Throw all TA out now ...flat now looking ot long lower...lots of nervous nellies around!! Good trading day

dc fxq 17:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 17:04 GMT

what intervention? by whom?

no reports of it on any wire service I've seen.

Sofia NYK 17:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Qindex// Think during the times of intervention TA is not valid at all !!!

LA Fxnew 17:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
sofia:

still seeing your 50 pips?

KL KL 17:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
out again at 1.9339 +54 SAR and long here sl 10 below

London Alex 17:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
What a day. I've been long at 1.32/3 from earlier last week, but it just didn't feel comfortable above 1.34 this morning, so I sold 85% of my long, only to see it plummet not long thereafter. Talk about luck! Now seeking a reentry point after a retest of 1.3150s retracement last week. If it survives, then I'll re-enter on rebound from 1.3150, if not, I'll wait for some stabilization before moving back in. At the end of the day, the euro is losing buy flows as we head into Xmas, but I suspect major buying will recur in early Jan, and the big spark to a new round of dollar weakness will undoubtably be NFP again. So hoping to get back into euro long before NFP hits in Jan. GT all!

Hong Kong Qindex 17:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The mid-point reference of 19250 - 1.9399 is 1.9325.

Amman wfakhoury 16:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD prepare to move down during this hour

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:56 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks Like Cad Might have an attempt to rally maybe from 1.2240...Got some pips and out...Looks dangerous for short

Stuttgart HW 16:51 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
OMG, I just only saw right now what happened to EURUSD! I wouldnt have expected it this low but still the data released earlier seems to have given the dollar the break it needed.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
cad?..short??..I am not sure

Sofia NYK 16:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London iain// 50 pips in GBP! Only for a half an hour!!!

KL KL 16:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I am out at 1.9393 +30 is enough. SAR and short here sl 7 above

HK Kevin 16:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:36 GMT, thank you. Keep my short position overnight and strict to the rule of "less trade leads to bigger profit". Will keep in mind of 1.3067 as my ultimate t/p.
One interesting point is history repeat itself, Cable still has not made the high of this year.

Sofia NYK 16:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
KL// Nothing change !!! It depends only on somebody 's decisiveness intervene.

Philadelphia Caba 16:44 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Out of eurusd long at B/E.

KL KL 16:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
ok in long gbpusd 1.9359....very short term play. I don't trust longing this anymore now...something has changed!!

Sofia NYK 16:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
AS I said---30 pips on GBP!!!

Hong Kong Qindex 16:36 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:29 GMT : EUR/USD : We should be able to see 1.3067 within the remaining period of this month.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:34 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT December 16, 2004
GBP/USD : The market is pulling towards 1.9100.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT December 16, 2004
GBP/USD : Quantized levels of 44-Day Cycle Reference (10/12)


... 1.8950 // {1.9100}* - 1.9250 - 1.9399 - 1.9549 // 1.9699 ...

Eilat Dolphin 16:33 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Kevin/ Hi, my 4 H chart says:
"an exploding candel has no shadow!"

SanFrancisco TG 16:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
If anyone who has accurate (non politically biased) data regarding seasonality of housing starts at this time of year I'd appreciate the info. Certainly some of this housing start drop has to be seasonal, in the way the triple gains for Fedx shipping have to be. Housing permits remain quite strong, sending a clear message of caution to the doom and gloom crowd.

Ldn 16:30 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Nov Housing Starts Take Biggest Drop In 10 Yrs
Housing starts decreased 13.1% to a seasonally adjusted 1.771 million annual rate, the Commerce Department said. It was the sharpest fall since January 1994's 17.0%.

HK Kevin 16:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, Qindex. Just revisted the EUR 4-hr chart and foinf that if it break 1.3270, the downside t/p is approx 1.3120. Any significance of this t/p point in your chart? Many thanks

GER ad 16:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
Stopped at cost, the rebounds are lower and lower.
Look like we will test Qindex 1.3257 (may not hold this time caution)

Sofia NYK 16:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Level 1.9340 is a place for the first small long !!!

Ldn 16:23 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   

Dolphin
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4101021.stm

London. 16:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
China revised its official target for economic growth next year to 8% from 7%, a move that appears to reflect confidence that an overheating economy is being brought under control. Inflation for 2005 is targeted at 4% WSJ

Sofia NYK 16:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London iain// Artificially created trend iz not a trend !!!

Eilat Dolphin 16:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Ldn/ and what did the voice say ? "Please guys one more attack, even the tiniest one..."

lax-lgb SNP 16:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
think its conceivable to aim for €/¥ & £/¥ monthly opening levels ... any opinions/suggestions ?

lax-lgb SNP 07:06 GMT December 16, 2004
both conti-¥en charts could use a much-deserved correction with less than 15 days to go before last Q ends

JF - good call on €/¥ ;-)

Ldn 16:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO (AP)--U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell Thursday said the voice heard on a purported Osama bin Laden audiotape posted on an Islamist Web site "appears to be" that of bin Laden

london iain 16:17 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK - brave call. I saw alot of posts this morning talking about selling cable high 1.94's/ low 1.95's (wouldn't be surprised if alot of people were stopped and missed the turn). Now we're getting the opposite i.e. buying cable.

Point is, I am a firm believer of following trends and leaving corrections alone. Current short term cable trend is clearly down so I'd be more inclined to go with it until it turns - instead of trying to 'guess' the turning point... just an opinion.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:32 GMT - It is because there is no guarantee but the odds are good when the market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.3257.

Halifax CB 16:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, that should have been "Spot" not "Sot". No offence intended...

Halifax CB 16:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sot - I agree; on top of that possibility is always the possibility of getting locked out by network problems (which happened to me today). My only loss was that I missed out on some juicy trades; but someone without sl's would have been open to the wind. It's something to bear in mind - particularly in that it seems some retail dealers (and I'm not mentionning names, since it's a more general than specific problem) still don't have connections that can handle high volume. The situation is similar to many on-line stock brokerages in the 90's, when large numbers of retail investors suddenly would find themselves locked out on heavy days. GL/GT

HK Kevin 16:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Think Qindex,s 1.3257 is not a bad idea for covering short EUR position.

SG Kan 16:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Sofia NYK 16:07 GMT December 16, 2004
Any target for long GBP? What's your sl. Thanks

KL KL 16:10 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well not waiting to lose on winning trade out at 46 from 1.9336 long +10....wait now...could be turn day today..i mean gbpusd turn lower day!!

lon jr 16:08 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
large 4.00 pm gmt fix to sell euro dlr..2 us invest houses pushed the last move down

Sofia NYK 16:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Start buying GBP at 1.9340 level. Dont afraid at all !

Spotforex NY 16:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
****without any risk management.

Amman wfakhoury 16:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
london jr myname at hotmail

Spotforex NY 16:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:57

Since I was a bit hard on your post yesterday in relation to other who might blindly follow your trade rec.....I did see the euro move 15 pips higher after your post today....from 1.3286 to 1.3301 (which is in your parameters to take profit......


Note: The point I was making yesterday was very valid...the euro has fallen 120+ pips from that post and would be very detrimental is one entered that with any risk management.


Ldn 16:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Aussie buyers waiting in wings as sell off stalls

SanFrancisco TG 16:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
We're right in another downside euro flow here, maybe it will be the last one with any spark for the session as it moves on.

london jr 16:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
wfakoury...hi jr here wats ur e mail i forgt to respond to u

Tempe kbb 16:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
San Diego dc Thanks I tend to agree

KL KL 16:02 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
out gbpusd short from 1.9545 at 1.9336...+209 pips...I must admit this is a beauty. SAR and long here sl 12 below. Just as it went too high too fast now gone too low too fast too...whee TRADING DAY!! adjjust sl to lock in 1 pip gain...lets see

Philadelphia Caba 16:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Just bought eurusd @ 1.3285

SanFrancisco TG 15:59 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
For the upside play, 3330 should meet some congestion, 3350 intermediate target, 3370 could again meet with congestion.

Ldn 15:58 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
International Flows Fail to Cover US Deficit
http://www.forexnews.com/AI/defaultnew.asp?f=A20041215A.mgn

Amman wfakhoury 15:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi
EUR/USD will rise during this hour

dc fxq 15:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW:

Cdn equivalernt to US TIC was 2.2bln vs ext of 3.6bln. very dissapointing nyumber.

jkt-aye 15:54 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Gecko...even your whistle sound nice to me. lol

SanFrancisco TG 15:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well I was right on the money to begin Europe last night but in my style I took the pips long before it got down here.

Euro is either bottoming at/near the figure, or with one more push should stall at/near 3270. Both are repeated areas of consolidated range stopping/turning points.

SanFrancisco TG 09:05 GMT December 16, 2004
For the moment on a very session oriented basis I like the idea of selling Euro blips into 3420ish.

dc fxq 15:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 15:40 GMT

Jingling pockets, Jingling pockets,
All the way to the bank!

LoL

Atlanta-South 15:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies: I'm long EUR?USD from 1.3285 & holding. Do you see 1.3400 after this correction? Maybe 1.3445. Thanks for reply.

San Diego DC 15:48 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Tempe kbb ,

Even though I mentioned the possibility of both ways during minor time cycle 16-18, we are still under the umbrella of the larger sideways/bullish cycle so to speak, bullish side should be more dominant IMHO

Halifax CB 15:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
It just struck me that perhaps the traditional January bottom in the dollar is coming a couple of weeks early; from here (well I'd give it till after XMAS, at least) through May could be good for $ bulls,,,

Tallinn viies 15:44 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
this move down is a classical witch hunt,
took off my stop order to protect my time and nerves.
cu later near 1,34

van Gecko 15:40 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Jkt-aye.. tough to change tunes on a dime these days.. can't compete with all those virtual quick change disc jockeys.. whats your favorite Christmas carol?

Bruxville Jim 15:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
BTW, Albert, why do you use the term 'speculative'? (fwiw, it used to be a very bad word 10-50 yrs ago in my country) Aren't all reasons for trading speculative in some form?

San Diego DC 15:31 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Tempe kbb 15:15 GMT December 16, 2004
San Diego What do you think will happen to Euro then?

Last major time cycle was Dec10-12, when EUR made a bottom near the 1.3150 area. That was a reversal (bullish)/sideways change from there. We had sideways from there for the most part this week except yesterday. The minor cyles are between Dec16-18 , and so until the 18th we have the possibility of moving both ways while still holding the 1.3150 bottom. If EUR makes another bottom going into teh Dec19-20 then it will be bullish continuation. IF EUR makes a top going into the Dec19-20 cycle, then we could have reversal (Bearish)/sideways. We will let the market tell us.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:30 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
cad time
GBP/chf

aus/jpy

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3519 1.3243 Hold Hold
USDJPY 105.5110 103.1254 Hold Hold
GBPUSD 1.9615 1.9192 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1580 1.1271 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5361 1.5224 Sell Hold
AUDUSD 0.7729 0.7524 Hold Hold
USDCAD 1.2370 1.2118 Sell Hold
NZDUSD 0.7272 0.7064 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6963 0.6852 Sell Buy
EURJPY 140.7781 138.1195 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 204.3101 200.3370 Sell Buy
CHFJPY 92.0569 90.1959 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2348 2.1985 Sell Hold
EURAUD 1.7714 1.7354 Hold Buy
EURCAD 1.6534 1.6245 Sell Hold
AUDCAD 0.9444 0.9213 Sell Hold
AUDJPY 80.4268 78.6166 Sell Hold

dc fxq 15:28 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
the fed sale of eur/usd

FED does not act in FX market EXCEPT at the request of the Treasury Dpt.

dc fxq 15:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
BDI = German Industrial Association

NY NY 15:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Central Bank of India

London. 15:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Toronto YV not sure IFR have it as a header today

Toronto YV 15:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London , who is BDI ?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.3257.

Spotforex NY 15:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Lagos..there was NO Fed sales of Euro today (or any other day).

Year end, rumor filled market to make things choppy.

Congrats on your 100 pip profit. May you see many more of them type of trades.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:23 GMT December 16, 2004
EUR/USD : Current expected Trading Ranges from My 44-Day Cycle (10/12)


... 1.2689 // 1.2878* - 1.3067 - {1.3257} - 1.3446 // 1.3635* ...

lj gmc 15:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London 15.18 gmt is these a joke? good one....

Lagos BA 15:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Been trading since 98. made my first 100 pips today in one trade. I think the fed sale of eur/usd is really goin to bring uncertainty into the mkt. Thats the last CB u would expect o tdo that.....

any thoughts on this!

London 15:18 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
BDI Warns EUR could go to 1.50
IFR

Tempe kbb 15:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
San Diego What do you think will happen to Euro then? TIA

Jkt-aye 15:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Van Gecko ... I hear you still singing the same song recently. No ?

Bruxville Jim 15:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
What it probably boils down to really is a mere shakeout of weak longs (USD shorts that is).

Bruxville Jim 15:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Rumours of possible intervention are supposed to be the reason for the sudden drop. Volume is said to have been huge. (Trusted sources, officially unconfimed though)

Ldn 15:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
euro/yen that is

San Diego DC 15:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$

The down move today was only a minor time cycle, the major time cycle isn't due until Dec 19-20. So, basically until this time cycle comes in, EUR is sideways/bullish

Ldn 15:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
After hitting 18 month highs earlier this week, Year end profit taking by funds behind the move, traders

GER ad 15:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 15:00,
a digital only once ...
Long EUR/USD at 1.3297
S/L now at cost

van Gecko 15:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London.. a merry Christmas post for you.. 888 posts down at 07:19 GMT..:))

Phooey.. yep.. looks like Santa Claus is decending from the north pole with a nice blast of cold air here..
btw.. hows your fortune cookie studies coming along ?

leeds jb 15:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
where can i get support and resistance lvels for the 4 majors. tia

gold coast martin 15:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
JIM,.,,,,nice to see you too....good trades.....

Makassar Alimin 15:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
i still need the close below 20 MA on daily to be more confident with euro bearish scenario, maybe we will see it by the end of this week but maybe not as well, it seems like this is some more profit taking action towards the end of the year after euro failing to make new high given the data from US these last few days

Bruxville Jim 15:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
re: gold coast martin //
don't go too high on this.
even a broken clock shows precise time twice a day... ;)

sg kan 15:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP,
Are you still short on USD/GBP? What is your target and sl. Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 14:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

gold coast martin 14:51 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Tu ferry 14:30 GMT December 16, 2004
Nice to see here you again....the 16th is upon us and there is still the 17-18-19 to go......may see a shallow retracement of 40-60 pips in the interim.....g/t

Jkt Rick 14:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 14:17 GMT December 15, 2004
Time to sell the euro for 300 pips sell at market 1.34 for 1.31.

place stops at breakeven 1.34

GVI john 14:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Survey Analysis courtesy Cumino

COMMENT -- First number is the Index (previous in brackets) on a scale of 0-100%. The next three numbers are the subcomponents (strong bears, neutral, strong bulls).

EUR/$:
1) Short term: 35% (45%); 42%, 46%, 12% (43%, 25%, 32%).
Very bearish in absolute terms and very bearish in relative terms. While the strong bearish subcomponent of 42% was unchanged from 43%, the strong bulls fell to 12% from 32%. Most moved to the neutral camp now 46% from 25%.

Interesting also is that the weighted average forecast of all respondents is only a few pips above the level that defines a strong bear outlook.

2) 3months: 48% (45%); 36%, 39%, 25% (31%, 33%, 36%). Neutral-bearish in absolute terms, and bearish in components. The more the EUR rally solidifies, the more traders have become skeptical of the rally. The bull component fell from 36% to 25%, and bears increased from 31% to 36%.

$/JPY:
1) Short term: 41% (43%); 40%, 40%, 20% (35%, 43%, 22%). Bearish for $/yen in absolute terms and a greater USD bear subcomponent from 35% to 40%. The higher spot at forecast compared to previous low spot makes this reading less bearish than the simple numbers suggest.

2) 3 months: 32% (52%); 47%, 41%, 12% (29%, 38%, 33%). Very bearish for the $/yen in absolute and relative terms. USD strong bulls fell from 32% to 12% and they switched more or less directly to the bears, now 47% (29%).

Comparing EUR/$ and $/JPY readings the difference in sentiment is striking. Since the markets have been mainly trading a USD scenario (not EUR or JPY) the marked difference in the two results is surprising. Respondents appear to have mostly a relative growth outlook rather than an asset allocation-capital flow perspective, or even simply a technical view. This is somewhat confirmed by the interest rate forecasts. In other words they expect a stronger yen, but not a stronger euro, which is to say that they don’t feel a much weaker dollar is justified. Another possible explanation for the eur/$ is that perhaps many missed the recent move from 1.3150 or so. If that is true (and I suspect it is), traders will not be running a sell-strategy on EUR/$ spikes as one might have suspected by reading the sentiment figures alone.

OIL 3M: 46% (34%); 21%, 66%, 13% (40%, 51%, 9%). Slightly bearish in absolute terms and bullish relatively. While strong bullish only slightly improved, strong bearish capitulated. Respondents are now starting to think that the price of oil has structurally changed for the first time in the history of the Survey.

London. 14:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow reaffirmed the Bush administration's commitment to reducing the U.S. budget deficit and said the government should avoid off-budget financing for the transition costs of revamping Social Security. "The deficit is clearly going to be the centerpiece issue, it seems to me, for the second term. It's the linchpin of the second-term economic policies. The president is deeply committed to dealing with the issue," Snow told reporters. The administration's budget proposals due early next year will outline plans for reducing the deficit in the short term, while Social Security reform is targeted at addressing the government's long-term liabilities, he said. "We will be spending a lot of time building broad-based bipartisan support for Social Security reform," Snow said. Asked when details of the Social Security reform plan will be revealed, Snow said he expects an announcement to be made soon. The Bush administration has acknowledged that more borrowing would be needed to fund its plans to create personal investment accounts in Social Security. The White House has called such funding "upfront transition financing." Snow said it's too early to know just how much more U.S. debt the government will need to sell to finance reforms of Social Security, since a plan hasn't been finalized. "We'll come to what the dollar level is at some future point. We are not there," Snow told reporters.

dc fxq 14:39 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 14:38



??????????? later today or early tomorrow?

Dallas GEP 14:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
1.9397 short with 15 pipo stop

GVI john 14:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks to all who participated.

The BiWeekly Survey of professional forex traders on Global-View.com, the original forex forum, saw the mean forecast for the eur/$ for December 30, 2004 of 1.3275. The mean $/yen forecast for that same date was 104.08.

The mean three month forecast (previous 3mo forecasts in brackets) for the eur/$ as of March 18, 2005 was 1.3363 (1.3139). The mean $/yen forecast for the same date was 102.51 (102.89).

The forecast for Fed Funds at the end of 1Q05 was fairly evenly split between 2.50% (41%) and 2.75% (42%).

The mean Crude Oil price forecast for March 18, 2005 was $44.09 ($46.69).

In a special question, 78% said the odds of forex intervention were below 50% between now and the end of 1Q05.

For complete survey results go to:
CLICK TO VIEW

saloniko 2004 nk...1.4088 14:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

For those who want to sell Euro ...suggest to place a temporary stop above 1.4388
I will be a Euro bear above 1.40

Merry Merry Xmas!
and
a Happy New year!
nk...Cheers!

Hong Kong Qindex 14:30 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:30 GMT December 16, 2004
Spot Gold : Current expected trading range from my 10-day cycle (14/12)


... // 425.9* - 428.2 - 430.4 - 432.6 - {434.8} - 437.1 - 439.3 - 441.5 - 443.7* // ...

Tu ferry 14:30 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
@ Gold Coast Martin

December 16 and EUR/USD coming down a big figure!
Great forecast.
Is this just the beginning?

Atl TJ 14:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Cable was showing nice divergence on the Slow Stochs on the 2 Hr, 1 Hr and 30 min charts. I jumped on it from 1.9509. Thats the good news. Bad news is that I didn't use this signal to influence other trades. Cable has plenty of room to the downside but will not continue to travel in the current plumment mode. Look for some retrace coming up fairly soon and then make some decisions to square or add.

Sing GD 14:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Wow , go out for a bite and we are down a big figure , thk God for stops ..

9550 and 3430 must be tops for now , all news in the USD and we have broken lower ... best stay out for now

GL all

perrie como 14:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
from Bennie Babies to Bins Laden trading style...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7112123

I would really like to knwo the accuracy of such video tapes or do they sell them at the Soudi exchange to make up some more money trough roumors I guess

anyway so It is nowadays with mediatic mediocrazyness

OK SZ 14:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
done trading but looks like the gbp/usd is putting in a double top..gl, gt all

HK Kevin 14:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR is marching towards at least 1.3180. Move s/l of my short from 1.3412 to 1.3388 now.

Ldn pm 14:23 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 14:17 GMT December 15, 2004
Time to sell the euro for 300 pips sell at market 1.34 for 1.31.

I big figure so far, 2 more to go.....lol

Makassar Alimin 14:23 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
usd back with a vengeance, sit back and relax

nyc 14:23 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Book clearing - watch you’re shirt.

london mamun 14:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Immediate support is seen at 1.3370 and a break below this close level would signal a test at 1.3340. There is a sticky support at 1.3300, and then, there is the all-important 20-day moving average at around 1.3270. Only a close below this line would likely signal a powerful correction to the uptrend and euro/dollar would fall toward 1.3138

Tallinn viies 14:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
bought more euros at 1,3346.
first target 1,3425/30
stop all at 1,3251

Ldn 14:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Purported new bin Laden tape surfaces
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/12/16/bin.laden.tape/index.html

Hong Kong Phooey 14:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Feelin' teh squeeze there van Gecko san?

dc fxq 14:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 14:02 GMT

but they never listen to the likes of us! LoL

I've been saying the same thing for some time that a bigger bang for the buck can be had by selling weakness rather than strength.

Oh well, they are probably economists by trade.

van Gecko 14:02 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
a little nudge from BOJ & their cronies here would go a long way to finish off those determined but one dimensional euro pushers..

Dallas GEP 13:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Closed euro shorts @ 1.3380

lj gmc 13:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit widened slightly to a record $164.71 billion in the third quarter as the goods trade shortfall grew and the services surplus shrank, the government said on Thursday.

While it hit a record, the gap -- running at a hefty 5.6 percent of the size of the U.S. economy -- still came in a good bit below the $170 billion reading Wall Street had braced for.

The deficit in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of the nation's trade with the rest of the world since it includes investment flows, grew by just $318 million in the July-September period from a revised second-quarter reading of $164.39 billion, the Commerce Department said.

Since the third-quarter reading came in narrower than expectations and was slimmer than the previously reported second-quarter gap of $166.18 billion, the report could actually temper worries over the willingness of foreign investors to finance the huge U.S. trade shortfall.

The dollar has fallen roughly 5 percent against the euro this year and some 4 percent against a basket of major currencies in part on worries about the trade gap, and some economists have warned of the potential for a steep dollar drop if foreigners loose their appetite for U.S. assets.

The Commerce Department said the goods shortfall grew to a record $166.73 billion from $163.58 billion.

The department said the goods and services deficit grew by $4.26 billion in the third quarter to $155.34 billion. However, unilateral transfers, which largely track U.S. foreign aid payments and add to the trade shortfall, shrank by $3.70 billion.

The surplus in investment income grew by $244 million, the department said.

lj gmc 13:34 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - U.S. housing starts unexpectedly plummeted 13.1 percent last month, the biggest dive in nearly 11 years, as groundbreaking activity fell sharply across the nation, a government report showed on Thursday.

Housing starts slid to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.771 million units in November from an upwardly revised 2.039 million clip a month earlier, the Commerce Department said. Starts have not fallen so precipitously since they tumbled 17 percent in January 1994.

Wall Street economists had expected starts to ease only slightly to a 1.980 million unit pace from the 2.027 million rate initially reported for October.

Low mortgage lending rates, which averaged around 5.7 percent in November, had been supporting the housing sector despite five short-term interest-rate rises from the Federal Reserve this year.

Permits for future groundbreaking, an indicator of builder confidence, also proved disappointing, slipping 1.5 percent to a 1.988 million unit pace. Analysts had looked for a 2.000 million permit-issuing rate.

The department said starts fell 14.2 percent in the Northeast, 19.4 percent in the Midwest, 13.2 percent in the West and 10.4 percent in the South, the region that boasts the lion's share of housing activity. ((Reporting by Tim Ahmann, editing by Sarah Edmonds; Reuters

dc fxq 13:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
U.S. weekly jobless fall 43,000 to 317,000 By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Initial claims for state unemployment benefits plunged 43,000 to 317,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. This is the largest decline in jobless claims since Dec. 2001. The department could identify no special factors behind the decrease. Jobless claims are at their lowest level since the week ended July 3, 2004. Economists were expecting only a modest drop in initial claims to about 342,000. The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 4,500 to 337,750 in the week ending Dec. 11. The number of former workers receiving state unemployment checks fell by 50,000 to 2.74 million in the week ending Dec. 4. The four-week average of continuing claims dipped 11,000 to 2.75 million, the lowest level since May 2001.


Marketwatch

Halifax CB 13:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Next few minutes should be fun; I'm just going to have my coffee & think about what to do in 10-15 minutes time....

Livingston nh 13:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Flip - as in most market matters it is less the current reality than the future uncertainty that moves things -- ECB may or may not move

nyc grumpy 13:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
... and if it comes in higher or lower or at consensus it will be read as USD bearish just like every other data bit is USD bearish

Mtl JP 13:16 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
nh 13:07 / market expects 171 bios which, IF it prints, would make deficit = 5.8% of GDP. Structural $ bear.

Dublin Flip 13:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
nh there is no rate cut in the pipeline from the ECB currently. In fact, the contrary could be the case. When asked at the recent press conference whether a rate cut was discussed Trichet said no but the other alternative (a rate hike) was. The ECB won't make itself a hostage to the markets by cutting rates to ease the currency (it would be like a red rage to a bull). If inflation abates and the economy turns down over the next six months they may well cut rates for sound economic reasons not in some reactionary, myopic and politically inspired response to a specific currency level.

GOES B747 13:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
when out of the sudden all US top is verbaly talking USD positive makes me feel that data to come may be USD very bearish.

gt

Livingston nh 13:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
The US Q3 Current Account figures will be today's non-event unless it comes in under Q2 level -- seems trade is not the issue since all Bad News is expected -- interest rates may be the focus (SNB - no hike) for the next few weeks (ECB cut? US yield curve plays)

Dallas GEP 13:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
WELL B747, my rule of thumb is if you could have made MORE money going the opposite direction then you kind of missed on the trade. Sooner or later those will catch up to you IMO.

Mtl JP 13:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy / who cares about increasing GDP (i.e. work harder to produce more).. when you have such fabulous low Consumer Prices..(i.e. need to work less = increase in personal standard of living)
I note: CP down 0.6% in November, headline inflation at 0.5% and Net price Index at 0.2%.. yeah ! Hopefuly your country is a harbinger for things to come in Europe. Enjoy the weak dollar while it lasts :-)

Gen dk 13:02 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GOES B747 12:56 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:30 GMT December 16, 2004

lol...you make money and complain; losing on paper and cashing out profits but still complains :)

gl gt

Dallas GEP 12:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well Kan on Euro it is 1.3443. GBP I am not in right now so I have no stop there.

Philadelphia Caba 12:54 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone!

Guys, do you think today's US data will have impact to upside eurusd? Thanks.

sg kan 12:51 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP. what's your sl for euro and gbp.

Dallas GEP 12:51 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
that would be 1.3430!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 12:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well KAN, now 1.3417 short on Euro, think 1,3330 might hold. GBP PROBABLY has seen highs

melbourne farmacia 12:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram - hi mate.... my current Gbp points fwiw

1.9456 / 1.9495 / 1.9520 / 1.9540 / 1.9560 / 1.9585 / 1.9625

Upington kalahari 12:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
"Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:08 GMT December 16, 2004
I am short cable pt at 1.9360"

the major trend is up, good luck with this short , I hope you have a stop in somewhere

uk ross 12:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
it is topish gbp today

SG Kan 12:35 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hello GEP,
What's your view on euro and gbp against usd? Kindly advise
Thanks

Dallas GEP 12:31 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks MTD.

Dallas GEP 12:30 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
OUT on Eur/usd longs @ 1.3416 for +23. Not a particularly good risk reward possie howver as it hit a low of 1.3368 (-25 at that time).

KL KL 12:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9545

PA MTD 12:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS: if you're out there, I just woke up and got on here really quick. (I always wake up and get on my computer really quick and then go back to sleep). I checked out USD/CHF on the basis of what you predicted earlier, and I just have to say, "simply amazing." I guess it's nothing new and it's normal to you, but to me, it's fascinating. That is what gets me excited about forex. Have a good one, now it's time for me to go back to sleep. (college final at 12:30 EST)

Roumeli anka 12:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
chf update :http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf1612.gif

Calcutta Vikram 12:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
See 1.9561 as a possible Resistance in Cable today. Should that break (cannot bet on it), a further rise towards 1.9636 may be on hand

Sing GD 12:18 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well seems EURGBP order done and now EUR following USD movements again .. GBP is a steamtrain at the moment and charts confirming still a buy .. shorts beware IMVHO

My long just held at 1.3365 , 1.3368 low , close but still alive FWIW ... GL out there in FX world , it is tough in the trenches ..

1.3420 need to break I think then we are onside , Tallin good buy by yourself , made me hold mine appreciate

London NR 12:18 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
TY Halifax CB, it seems to be going a little nuts.

Halifax CB 12:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London NR - I for one have closed all my trades (including GBPUSD) since there appears to be something afoot & I have no interest in getting run over pip-raiding. I think GBPUSD is still a short, but it's better to wait for things to calm down a little, especially this time of year. GL though if you do go in.

London NR 12:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone going to go short on £/$ very soon?

chicago cal 12:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
break out types like myself bot above 1.9500 btw

dc fxq 11:52 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Mauricio 11:44

I had it above 19500 recently

Bruxville Jim 11:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
viies// Where do you plan to cut your loss in case Euro goes against you? below 1.3330?

Dallas Mauricio 11:44 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
prints

Dallas Mauricio 11:44 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Has anybody been getting some weird prins on cable? I had a spike @ 9490.

Dallas Mauricio 11:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Cable has resistance @ 1.9487

Tallinn viies 11:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
bought more euros at 1,3376. target still 1,3455/60 today before NYC close

Sing GD 11:35 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Rather confusing Picture out there at Mo :

USD down - GBP and JPY

USD up - EUR and CHF

Go figure .. some nice cross flows going through

Well position still open , come on Current account number

GL all

Auckland 11:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:25 GMT December 16, 2004 6895

GOES B747 11:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Auchland, which price you take as short entry?

gl gt

SanFrancisco TG 11:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I've found one of the most difficult things to conquer in trading is the psychological effect of having a losing string that follows the confidence of a winning string. You have to de-personalise it, approach it from as much a logic standpoint as possible and be careful and patient while you figure it out. You really do have to become educated.

Auckland 11:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 11:07 GMT December 16, 2004
Yes I'm shorting EUR/GBP profit target 6850

Auckland 11:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:08 GMT December 16, 2004
hello mate; current cabel price 1,9480 and you entered short at 1,9360 you must be far from price - negative other words

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
short aussie for 1.7609

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:08 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I am short cable pt at 1.9360

GOES B747 11:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 11:00 GMT December 16, 2004

cheers mate!; sounds like story of Moses in the desert!

I used the term 'looks easy'...I agree that losing money is FX is easier than making it :)
re EUR/GBP: I think that UK will enter the EUR with fixed rate of EUR/GBP @ 0.75...imo and fwiw
are you short with this relaxed, time eating pair?

gt

Auckland 11:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 10:33 GMT December 16, 2004
Nothing is easy in FOREX mate; if you are doing as pro- bit higher money will be involved and stress.Allmost like fishing pro.Friend of mine had father- fisherman pro. After 8 hours struggling, he was not able to take fish out of river (he had fish on hook and other people pulled fish out later).Fish was 48 kg and he had hart attack; he didn't survive...
Not much different in FOREX.
G/L

SanFrancisco TG 10:56 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Locking in gains from short Euros in the 3420ish area looks like a fair move here @3390 or just flat taking the profits. No indication to me yet of bid bias overall.

Dallas Mauricio 10:56 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Covered Cable short @ 1.9455 for + 15 pips.

Dallas GEP 10:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Long at 1.3393 on EURo tight stop Will see

GER 10:43 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
short GBP/CHF at 2.2288
50 pips S/L
T/P under 2.22

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 10:40 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I think MKT is biding the $ for a day or two

London NR 10:36 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
:P top tip dublin lol

GOES B747 10:33 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 10:19 GMT December 16, 2004

it looks too easy; I think that 06865/70 will trap lot of people shorting and will bring a move to 0.6940/45

but, maybe I am wrong.

gt

Dallas Mauricio 10:31 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Short GBP/USD @ 1.9470. 11 Pip SL

Dublin Melody 10:28 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I find a way to help emotion,
Watch yourself,
just put a mirror along the Price Screen,
and look at your face in the mirror,
ask the guy in the mirror to smile, to be relax!!

FX-Apprentice (just about 1 years parttime trading history)

London NR 10:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
TY Aukland :P

Auckland 10:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good day traders...
Good trades...
wach EUR/GBP- seems to go another 30-40 pips,6840/50 area
Good luck to all (demo accounts included)

Dallas Mauricio 10:11 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Way to go!

KL KL 09:50 GMT December 16, 2004
I am out gbpusd 1.9470 from 08 +62....good start for me. Now looking to short!!

Dallas Mauricio 10:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I caught some of that too! Way to go!

Halifax CB 10:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Got stopped out on trailing stops Eurjpy long & GBPUSD short from loast night at break-even; picked up the eurjpy again right away & looks like the GBPUSD is shortable, stop above 1.3510. and trailing.. GL/GT

London NR 09:59 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
yeah top one KL!

Sing GD 09:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
My Mistake GBP up as Figs already out sorry ... GBP bullish , well done KL

Gen dk 09:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 09:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I am out gbpusd 1.9470 from 08 +62....good start for me. Now looking to short!!

Sing GD 09:43 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD moving up in similar fasion to yday .. figs coming maybe very bullish and clearer knows something...

Long EUR as lagging stops below 1.3370 for now

Data tonight USD negative and USD greenlight for sell still from authorities

GL all

Syd 09:26 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
AUD / USD
AUDUSD is back to its up trend and entry at retracement level (0.7602) will be a very good one. Its RSI has taken a breather and is currently around 50 in 4 hour, daily and weekly charts indicating that it is all set to move to its target at 0.7826.
Entry with a tight stop is strongly recommended. A 30 points trailing stop is suggested for maximizing the profits.

Recommendation
Buy AUDUSD at 0.7602 with stop of 30 pips (0.7572) and take profit at 60 pips (0.7662). Target is 0.7826
Daily Report
By FortKnox Trading

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
BTW VIIES hope you are well. Looking back at my comments they do not seem to be as clear as they should be. Have a great week. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
VIIES it all depends on what time frame you are talking about. You have answered the question yourself. You are talking in days when I was talking about hours. GL GT

Dallas Mauricio 09:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP Retail Sales Data in 17 minutes. How important is this report? TIA

KL KL 09:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Long gbpusd at 1.9408 this is the long on dips I have been saying and going against charts, signal etc...but when you play short term like me it does not matter

sofia mile 09:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will probably retrace a bit,considering that 8h and 4h charts are overbought.

NJ RT 09:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd too quiet .... any thoughts where this is heading. Thnx

SanFrancisco TG 09:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
For the moment on a very session oriented basis I like the idea of selling Euro blips into 3420ish.

Tallinn viies 08:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:55 GMT - I wouldnt call it consolidation. 300 up with 2 trading days and consolidation?

Melb mpfx 08:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg Merlin 08:22 // Thanks, my post in help forum basically says the same, r/r ratio is an average of all trades, not a set in concrete formula.. gt...

Indonesia - Solo Raden Mas 08:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
hello !!
GBP/usd
Level buy : 1.9324 – 1.9270 – 1.9237 – 1.9147 – 1.9117
Level sell : 1.9457 (done) – 1.9473 – 1.9489 – 1.9511 – 1.9550 – 1.9628 – 1.9661 – 1.9678

Eur/usd
Level buy : 1.3427 – 1.3452/57 – 1.3477/87 – 1.3539
Level sell : 1.3427 – 1.3380 – 1.3347 – 1.3312 – 1.3289 – 1.3263 – 1.3231

Aud/usd
Level buy : 0.7660 – 0.7571 – 0.7537 – 0.7515 – 0.7454
Level sell : 0.7660 – 0.7691 – 0.7730/47 – 0.7770 – 0.7798

Usd/jpy
Level buy : 104.01 (done) – 103.84 – 103.30
Level sell : 104.91 – 105.26/33 – 105.48 – 105.84/88 – 106.16 – 106.57

Usd/Chf
Level buy : 1.1383 (done) – 1.1340 – 1.1304 – 1.1239 – 1.1206 – 1.1117
Level sell : 1.1449 – 1.1470/76 – 1.1512 – 1.1540/50 – 1.1574 – 1.1601 – 1.1635 – 1.1724

Gold
Level buy : 430.31 – 429.68 – 424.96 – 422.00 – 429.05 – 415.85
Level sell : 443.60 – 448.15 – 449.88 – 451.17 – 452.15

raden mas

IST Sez 08:34 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
SNB:Rates unchanged...

Johannesburg Merlin 08:25 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London, NR: You are overtrading!! Your exposure is too high per trade!!!!!!!

Best regards, will help where I can.

London NR 08:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanx,
Sorry for taking up so much space in this forum I didnt realise there was a help forum (slightly embarrased here).
Thanx again guys GL GT.

Johannesburg Merlin 08:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Melb,
here's my two cents, try not to limit your reward:risk, rather use a good trailing (progressive) stop, DON"T use a profit-target. You may find a reward: risk as high as 3 or 4:1, trading is DEFINETELY not about success ratio. A profit target makes you just feel good and may work in the short term, but over a period of a year, those "home run" profits really make a difference.

GLGT, best wishes.

Melb mpfx 08:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London NR
I will reply in the help forum..

London NR 08:18 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx.thankyou.When you and Bris talk of larger time frames are you talking about leaving a position to make gains over the day and or week with a target ending price prediction (or trend)in mind?
I am doing ,what probably alot of newbies do , alot of screen staring at the moment and its taking up alot of my days and nights and mornings.Would you mind explaing the "reward / risk ratio of 2:1". Please forgive all these,probably bumb, questions I am desperate to make this thing work for me.
Thanx again.

Dallas Mauricio 08:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone. GL/GT.

Melb mpfx 07:58 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London NR // I also agree with Bris th, larger time frames are the go :))
Learn to follow the markets instead of trying to predicting them, use a reward / risk ratio of 2:1 and you only have to be right 50% of the time to make $$..
Of course this is just mvho..
GL & GT...

Syd 07:54 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY's drop to 104.00 has eased the overbought condition considerably. For this morning, consolidation above 104.00, but no higher than 105.00. Outside these parameters, below 103.85 things get messy toward 103.00 and 102.50 and she will not rule out a brief dip to new 2004 lows and test of key support at 101.25. Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott

London NR 07:36 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanyou Bris th,
I have been trading demo for about 3 weeks now and have made some good gains right up until yesterday when the $ weakend again and the 48% gains I had made then turned into a 40% loss on my starting balance,whoops.Note to self, use stops lol.
Stuttgart HW,
that is a very good point,it did occur to me the other day while I was musing over the psychlogy of trading (fear and greed) that while I am dealing with virtual money it is going to be totaly different to when I am dealing with cold hard cash.
It will be a bit more exciting thats for sure, losing all that virtual cash was upsetting enough lol.Emotional intelligence eh?
Great I will look it up thankyou.


van Gecko,
Thankyou for your advice.I am new to all this so it will take me a little time to digest that information, some of the terminology in forex is all new to me and a bit confusing.

Thankyou all for taking the time to reply to my post and thankyou for advice,Neil

PA MTD 07:29 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I should say support at 1.3408. sorry bout that

KL KL 07:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
For today I am buying the dips...for obvious reasons it worked and I think tonight will be decisive for the USD bull/bears. However in this funnynomics where big deficits means higher interest rates which can spur dollar bull....Apart from that with this year coming to an end...need to still play the ninja style..cos train will go both ways collecting stop losses. GL GT all

PA MTD 07:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Anybody else agree? Short term support at 1.3405 EUR/USD?

Bris th 07:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb ..I only use daily and weekly now because I don't really day trade ..So not uncommon to use 100 pip plus stop..Trick is in my opinion is to let time do the work ..and not stare at the screen 16 hrs a day which I have done of course ..It has taken me 4 years to come to this opinion and is only my personal view...Thing is to make money ..If you just want a rush Jump out of a plane etc etc..

Stuttgart HW 07:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
LONDON NR
And get yourself a book on emotional intelligence, it wont be an investment that you'll regret!

PA MTD 07:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I'm new also, but I have the slight basics down. I work on support and resistance. I just took +1 pip on .1 unit because I'm not sure where the EUR/USD is heading. I'll take $1, it's better than a loss.

van Gecko 07:19 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London.. major tops & bottoms are usually form in December & January for the following year or m/t period..
after climbing 5000+ pips over the last 4 years & 1200+ pips during the last 2 months the bookie odds are for some real money market moving elephants to place their m/t Euro bets next year on a major correction (or even a mult-year inflection slide) vs climbing another 700 pips up to 1.40 from here despite the latest screams & sensationalism over those 'triple deficit/dollar devaluation' stories..
for Euro to continue on a sustained m/t up move from here, it must have support from gold & its crosses.. a tough bull job under the present inter-market dynamics with eur/gbp already in a side to down correction, eur/jpy showing signs of retreat infront of a multi-year top, & gold in the middle of doing a Olympic medal size dive after failing to take out 455..

heres a neat snozzing idea for some sleepless traders :))
merry Christmas..


Tokyo IM 07:18 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Stuttgart HW & Bris th both have points and even if you can not make money on demo then don't bother with real money.

Stuttgart HW 07:13 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I dont agree with that, never start on a demo account start on a 10k account!
There is a lot of psychology involved as everyone knows, with a demo account your not going to be as careful as with real money!
I made averaging 15-20% on a demo acc. when I went real I lost all my money twice. Only after that I started to learn!

beirut jb 07:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Bris th 07:04 GMT

well said mate, may i ask u how wide u put ur stop if u use 4h and up?

GL GT

lax-lgb SNP 07:06 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
both conti-¥en charts could use a much-deserved correction with less than 15 days to go before last Q ends

SH cv 07:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
riding on the EUR/JPY horse, heading for new high

HK JR 07:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Hey Sing GD . The bloke who bought his Euro @ 0.85 is very much in love with his position right now :-)

Bris th 07:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
London NR ..Hi mate ..Trade a demo for at least 6 mths ..If you can't make money on demo ...don't go live..Start on mini account 10k lots if you do go live.... Don't try to trade 5 mins charts ..It's a mugs game ..90% of people on this forum will lose every cent in thier account..Regardless of how much they talk themsleves up...Trade 4 hrs up in my opinion....Get a good mentor if you can..Good luck..

London NR 06:56 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GM everyone. I'm new here and new to forex but already addicted.
I would realy apreciate any hints or tips for trading before I lose the shirt off my back :)
Happy trading.

Sing GD 06:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well while its quiet , just have to say I amazed at this market and how it manages to focus the US and its Twin Deficits problem and that alone ...

The ECB speaks , dont listen , the ECB Gov apprently asks some countries to refrain from buying EUR , they buy = all have no respect for ECB yet we buy thier currency like no tomorrow ...

Mr G speaks the market listens and does as he requests , so the power in the market is still with the US and always will be ..

They want a weaker currency and they will get it to where they want without spending a cent , then on a whim change direction and we all run for cover ..

Happy hunting Guys and girls , remember be nimble be quick and dont fall in love with a position ...

GL all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 06:27 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
GM All :)

Syd 06:11 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
NAB isn't bullish on the Australian dollar and won't be until a close above US$0.7700, the bank recommends buying the unit on dips because of the U.S. dollar's renewed weakness

kwt muzainiali 05:59 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
KUWAIT CITY - The US warned that "terrorist groups" are preparing to carry out attacks in the Gulf Arab state of Kuwait in the near future. The US embassy has "credible information that terrorist groups are developing near-term plans for attacks against unspecified targets in Kuwait," the embassy said in a warden message circulated to US nationals in the emirate. The message urged Americans to exercise caution, maintain a low profile and avoid areas where Westerners are known to congregate. Some 12,000 American civilians live in Kuwait, where about 25,000 US troops are stationed. The soldiers are deployed at one major base in Arifjan, about 70 kilometers (45 miles) south of Kuwait City, and several desert camps in the north and northwest of the country, near the border with Iraq. Kuwait is used as a transit point for US and other coalition troops coming in and out of Iraq.

PA MTD 05:57 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
why are those resistance levels so high!? I don't get it

PA MTD 05:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I see what you mean. I had some open orders earlier as you might have seen and none of those are even close now. The closest I came to making a trade tonight was that 1.3402 support level that I missed out on because I'm still not sure of my confidence. So it looks like i'm going to sit out tonight without making a trade.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
We are still in the consolidation period (range) for the eur/usd pair as the market decides on what to do next. Bulls in the mean time have retaken the command on this pair and are trying to push to test the top before the year is over. Here are the numbers for this pair for today.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3460-70, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3480-90 Support T/L 3120-30 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3380-3400, 3330-40, 3250-3270, 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3060-80 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 05:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
One last word..it seems lately that usd tends to get SHORTER as we approach and are in the LONDON session so watch for that.

OUT till London.

Dallas GEP 05:51 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
NP....the other thing is lately the pairs have been playing off their fib points. So look at those also. the 38% ones particularly.

PA MTD 05:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
that makes sense. Thanks for sharing that with me...

Dallas GEP 05:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
2 hour 20 period moving average is 1.1478. That's why.

PA MTD 05:42 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
you said it might be good for 60-70 pips. If it is at 1.1405, 60 pips is 1.1465. And there is nothing on the chart to give it that rise...

Van jv 05:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 02:09 BTW:"""" how many US citizens have left the US to find their fortunes in the EMU or Jpn? Instead, where do EMU and Jpn corps and enterpreneurs go to seek growth, why of course, the US.

Think about it.""""
Was recently in Prague , was told about 40,000 USA citizens ???enjoying life there----there is more than $ in life//for some at least/

Dallas GEP 05:40 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
What do you mean MTD??? I don't understand your question.

U.K. J.B. 05:39 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Chf 1.1385 //1.1485 range for me

PA MTD 05:37 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS: I have a question...How can you predict a 60-70 pip move when there is really nothing above it?

Dallas GEP 05:34 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
One of the better plays I see is a usd/chf long from around the 1.1405 area with a 1.1375 stop. Might be good for 60-70 pips

PA MTD 05:28 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
short term play, it did hit my predicted 1.3402 support....oh well.

Dallas GEP 05:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Well both GBP and EURO are looking a little heavy now. Seems GBP more so than Euro. Aussie was being supported somewhat by AUD/JPY longs but that is pulling back a little now. Look GBP to break down short FIRST and then EURO unless we have some eur/gbp longs come into play.

PA MTD 05:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
that is quite the range....figuring I'm new, where did you come up with those levels?

U.K. J.B. 05:11 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I have no special supp at that level. The market to me feels very quiet and lacking direction. So i would look to play the 1.3345//1.3470 range. I would stay neutral at current levels.

PA MTD 04:58 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
anyone see support at 1.3402 EURUSD?

U.K. J.B. 04:58 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD

Good post, and i wish you every success for the future.

PA MTD 04:49 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I agree U.K.! Alot of people are out there looking for the easy way out...I did it too, and still do. But with FX, I've finally taken a step back and realized that the only way I can win is by being patient and playing it like it is supposed to be played. Programs don't care and discipline is not a factor. The human mind is the most powerful system in the world and the real winners are the people who can use it right. :-)

U.K. J.B. 04:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Greenfield JB

Don't waste your money. I have studied many systems over a good 20 year period none of them make money consistantly. You will lose more than you can make. You need a great deal of skill,experience to trade in the Financial markets,that why i get rather annoyed by these clowns that treat it like a casino. i have many successful years as a trader and to this day i am still learning thats the beauty of this profession.save your money. read the books,do your own analysis, open your demo account see how you go it takes many years of research before you pull the trigger for your first trade . Forex is not a get rich quick alternative good luck

GreenField JB 04:31 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
i normally only trade the payroll numbers (and make good money) but i am very bord with no trading to do until
first friday in jan 05 at 8:30 est, so i am thinking
about being what some of you would call a sucker.
let me know if you used these guys, ..thanks,

http://www.fx-review.com/ has them down as being
good..he says he is not paid by winningforex.com

need info on http://www.winningforex.com

if you have any input i would like to here it,

Thanks

Sydney 04:22 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Australian dollar predicted to fall
In finance news, the higher Australian dollar hurt returns for wheat, cotton and canola during November.The Westpac-NFF commodity index fell by 2.3 per cent for the month, due to easing prices for barley, wool and sugar, although beef rose slightly.Justin Smirk from Westpac says while the dollar will be volatile for the next six months, it should be below US 70 cents this time next year.
"The forces are in play for that.
"We've got the current account, which is growing in Australia at the moment, with a strong level of imports and exports being restricted; that will be a weight on the Aussie [dollar].

"Also we believe that a correction in the US dollar is coming to an end in some stage through next year; that again will be a weight on the Aussie as the US dollar starts to strengthen again.

"So all together that's why we think the Aussie will be heading south in 2005."

ABC.

Syd 04:05 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
The Reserve Bank of Australia sold a net A$524 million in the spot foreign exchange market in November, according to figures issued Thursday.

.

PA MTD 03:54 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I have Eur/Usd orders in for:

Sell Limit @ 1.3430, [email protected]
Buy Limit @ 1.3391, [email protected]

Also have a Sell Limit @1.3468 for whenever it gets back up there.

Philadelphia Caba 03:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:45 GMT December 16, 2004

Thanks GEP, but that sl + tp mean no good r/r for my entry, so thinking about wider sl over night, no sure what will bring european session...

Dallas GEP 03:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
CABA, I think 30 tops but 1.3463 stop SHOULD be safe. Tight range for now target 1.3380

Philadelphia Caba 03:41 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good evening!
GEP, may I ask you on your eur/usd view? I'm already short at av. 1.3410. Thank you.

Dallas GEP 03:36 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
short AUSSIE @ .7645 with 20 pip stop I will short euro when and IF 1.3417 is seen

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:08 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your response Farmacia. I will send you another email with more detail. GT

melbourne farmacia 03:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL - Evening mate.. Can u provide some more detail regarding email Question... GT

Stockholm AGuy 02:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 02:09 GMT: "the "savings" they are absorbing are not from the mom's and pop's of this world but rather from the slackard types like Trichet"

I sure wish it really was his own money! We all know it's not.

"who bemoan US being profligate while maintaining a state that whille refusing to acknowledge a lack of dmosestic growth"

But that's what I wrote! There is plenty of blame to go round here. The current situation is one of codependence, contributed to by both parties. Inefficient, overregulated, statist economies feeding an irresponsibly overspending and undersaving one, with both sides blaming the other while refusing to change their own ways.

"how many US citizens have left the US to find their fortunes in the EMU or Jpn?"

This question has the very character of "national contest" displayed by *both* sides when their own shortcomings are brought up: instead of addressing their problems, they switch subject to their strengths. As long as this denial goes on, we'll get nowhere (other than deeper in our respective holes).

BTW, a quick Google search tells me that the number of Americans living overseas is currently estimated to 4.1 million, so something like 1.5% of all US citizens.

"Think about it."

I wonder how many times I'll have to bash statists, protectionists and other enemies of free market economies around here - whatever they may call themselves, wherever they may be - before it dawns upon you that I have thought about it, long and hard, and that this is not the issue.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:46 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
I have been reading some of the comments in the FF and I am compelled once again to talk about Money Management. I believe that with out this tool in the trader’s arsenal the chances of succeeding are very poor at best. Stop’s and R/R are part of the MM philosophy and I live by it to fight another day when things don’t look good for me. Believe me it has happened to every trader I know. There are good times and there are bad times. In the long run the bad times usually outweigh the good times that is when good MM can help you retain your capital to fight another day IMHO. GL GT

NYC Bud Fox 02:38 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
euro top for this year is coming up at 1.3420. maximum at 1.3450 based on descending lines on 8 hr chart

dc fxq 02:09 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
"... (currently absorbing something like 80% of the world's savings, if memory serves me right).

the "savings" they are absorbing are not from the mom's and pop's of this world but rather from the slackard types like Trichet, etc. who bemoan US being profligate while maintaining a state that whille refusing to acknowledge a lack of dmosestic growth while fostering a dismal economic cscenario at home, prefer to place the blame where it belongs.

BTW: how many US citizens have left the US to find their fortunes in the EMU or Jpn? Instead, where do EMU and Jpn corps and enterpreneurs go to seek growth, why of course, the US.

Think about it.

Gen dk 01:53 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 01:31 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Bush dollar comments raise more questions than answers
WASHINGTON (AFX) - Shortly before noon on Wednesday, the president's economic forum was underway at the newest government office building in town. It was a carefully orchestrated event where participants echoed White House views on tort reform, tax policy and partial privatization of Social Security
But two blocks away, the president was having trouble with the message
In a photo-opportunity with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, President Bush wandered where politicians fear to tread - openly discussing the dollar's foreign exchange value against the euro and dragging the Federal Reserve into the fray
His comments left analysts grasping at straws to explain the intent behind his comments
"It is unusual to see the president say anything about the currency. Today he seemed to have a lot to say," said David Gilmore, currency analysts with Foreign Exchange Analytics
Seated in front of the Oval Office fireplace, Bush noted that Berlusconi was concerned about the dollar's recent fall. Bush said the "best thing that we can do from the executive branch of government in America is to work with Congress to deal with out deficits." He said the "world financiers can take comfort" by his plan to shore-up Social Security
Asked for clarification of his remarks, Bush repeated the usual assertion from many senior Bush administration officials that the White House has a strong dollar policy
"The policy of my government is a strong dollar policy," Bush said
Ok so far
Then Bush went on to repeat the phrase that markets have come to believe signals the policy of benign neglect
"We believe that the markets should make the decision about the relationship between the dollar and the euro," he said
If it had ended there, Bush's comments would not have been provocative
But the president continued:
"Therefore, to the extent that the federal government is involved with strengthening -- making the conditions such that a strong dollar will emerge, we'll do everything we can in the upcoming legislative session to send a signal to the markets that we'll deal with our deficit, which, hopefully, will cause people to want to buy dollars," Bush said
"Independently, the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, raised the interest rates yet again, a signal to the world markets that the Chairman is also aware of the relative currency valuations between the euro and the dollar," he concluded
Analysts were puzzled by Bush's comments about Greenspan, particularly when Fed officials go to great lengths to distance their recent policy of gradual tightening from the dollar
"I think his Greenspan reference is a little confusing. Nobody should believe for a minute that Greenspan raised interest rates because the dollar was weak," Gilmore said
By saying that Greenspan is aware of the falling dollar, Bush was really saying that the market should be aware that the Fed is on a path of gradually higher rates, which will keep the dollar from falling, Gilmore said"Essentially I think he is trying to answer his (European) critics who were demanding some kind of government currency intervention," to stem the dollar's decline, Gilmore saidThe U.S. is not close to intervening, Gilmore sad
Treasury Secretary John Snow, seeking to clarify Bush's comments to reporters, sidestepped Bush's comments on the Fed"I think what the president did today was re-affirm the strong dollar policy," Snow said, adding that Bush "noted that exchange values are best set in markets." "And he said he wants to focus on the things that will make the American economy strong, namely, good fiscal policy to restrain deficits, both short-term and long," Snow said, adding "fiscal policy, along with monetary policy and regulatory policy provide the foundation for a well-functioning economy." All in all, it was not a promising beginning for a White House that is seeking to convince the financial markets and the public of the wisdom of significant changes to Social Security
"It was mis-speak. It may have been that somewhere, somebody thought the dollar had fallen enough for now and there could be a pause. But it is a very hard signal to give," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics
"And it is not right to try to play it with the president as spokesman because typically the president, whoever he is, doesn't really have the sophistication to talk on this issue," he said

Stockholm AGuy 01:28 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 01:16 GMT:

I have no problem agreeing with just about all of that. Unfortunately, that means that I don't see how it contradicts what I wrote in Stockholm AGuy 22:56 GMT, nor how it motivates the "[email protected]!!!!" of dc fxq 23:41 GMT. Puzzled...

lj gmc 01:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The dollar was feeling the heat on Thursday as concerns about the U.S. trade and current account deficits hardened the market's view that the currency's downward spiral would continue.

The dollar suffered considerable losses on Wednesday after data showed that portfolio inflows into the United States in October fell short of covering the country's record trade deficit for the same month.

U.S. data showed that portfolio inflows into the country fell to $48.1 billion in October, the lowest level in a year.

But while market participants acknowledged the data had pressured the dollar, some said the currency's losses stemmed partly from position adjustments. Many admitted that with trading volume slowing to a trickle ahead of the year-end, there was no telling how currencies would move.

"Trading is thin, so even the smallest flows will move the market," an analyst at a foreign bank said.

The dollar was trading at 104.33 yen at 0031 GMT, little changed from New York levels but losing sight of a one-month high around 106.20 yen hit less than a week ago.

It tumbled around 1.7 percent against the Japanese currency on Wednesday after a Bank of Japan survey suggested that sentiment among Japanese companies was better than some had feared following a string of weak economic data.

The euro was trading at $1.3402 , also near late levels after the dollar sank to $1.3444 in New York, close to a record low of $1.3470 hit earlier in the month.

While many in the market were happy to continue shunning the dollar in the longer term, some traders expected selling to pause leading into the holiday season.

"The dollar is looking bearish but I expect it to trade in tight ranges until traders return from the Christmas holidays, when they are likely to resume full-fledged dollar-selling," said a trader at a Japanese trust bank.

The market will be watching out for U.S. current account data for the third quarter, to be released later in the day. Economists expect a deficit of $170 billion, wider than the $166.2 billion in the second quarter. ((Reporting by Naomi Tajitsu, editing by Dale Hudson;

dc fxq 01:16 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Aguy:

I am not a "trained" economist (although I have had more than my share of the theoretical, claas room type silliness), but instead have been a practicing trader since 1968. I do however understand quite a bit about real economic fact rather than the babble that permeats the investment scene. I too am a "oneyphile" BUT I also was a moneyphile rather than a "dot.com o'pjile in the late 1990's into early 2000.

What I am slluding to is the near univeriality of opinion regarding the worthlessness of USD and the all conquering power of EUR.

In the very early 1990 area JPN was buying everything in sight in terms of US assets and had nowhere to go but up. The Nikkei was the only market to buy and prediction of 100,000 were floating around like soot on a busy London street.

We know hat happened from ther. In the same way the Asian tigers, Singapore, Malaysia, et al., would conquer the world in only a few years later in the time period. We saw what happened to that theory.

Today all is the omnisiecent CHN syndrome. Sorry, I remeber the days of Gerry Tsai when at Fidelity Funds cou;ld move the markets with rumours of "Gerry is buying". He bought Manhattan Fund and everyone who followed him found its was a major flop.

Since taking the lead as the international unit of exchange USD has constantly been under pressure and criticism for failure to do whatever happened to be the bete' noir of the moment.

I for one, would love to see the Euro adop[ted as the replacement for USD as the international exhange standard. They deserve that fate.

Frankly, I am a trader and what happens in the next 5 to 15 minutes is far more important to me than the idea of where something (EUR, X dot,com, etc) is foolish.

As John maynard Keynes stated "in the long run we are all dead".

NJ RT 01:12 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 00:50 I always take your advice ... I went short on eur/usd @1.3410 with a s/l @ 1.3510. I see you are talking about 1.37. I just heard Bush talking about strong $$$ etc. Any specific reasons to beleive that will go that high? Thank you

Dublin Melody 01:07 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Night,

Dublin Melody 01:00 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks AGuy, I will try

gold coast martin 00:55 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Melody 00:47 GMT December 16, 2004
Think of eurozone unemployment and growth numbers....that always slows me down.....g/t

Stockholm AGuy 00:52 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Melody 00:47 GMT:

Add more indicators to your trading screen. That way you will almost always have a few contradicting the others, throwing you into a semi-permanent state of indecision. :-)

Tallinn viies 00:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
london 00:36 GMT - I really doubt. 1,3700 screaming loudly on the screen want to reach during next 48 hours.

knoxville dan-k 00:50 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
no problem, take xanax and drink martini's

Dublin Melody 00:47 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Dear FX-Traders,

I am a Apprentice on FX Market,
Could you tell me how to control one's mood,

I tend to enter the marker too often.

london 00:45 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
AGuy Thanks, re USD/JPY not sure, more of a longer term player, mostly europeans.

Stockholm AGuy 00:40 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
london 00:36 GMT:

I'm all for that! Acually my MEM projections are still pushing the top forward (some to next week) but essentially they all point down from here all the way through Q1. (So much for "Europhile" - I'm a moneyphile!)

Supporting observation: 30 minute USD/JPY chart. Would youi say that qualifies as a cup with handle formation, starting December 10?

london 00:36 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Euro topping out around these levels for a few weeks? TIA

Syd 00:34 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Australian Housing Starts -5.8% In 3Q Vs 2Q

San Diego DC 00:32 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Mertin,

OK thanks, I understand now from ur post that you are trading with a combination of fundamental and technical. I thought you were trading only with all fundamanetal info., that is why I asked. This is all I needed to know.

gold coast martin 00:24 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
San diego...sorry i cannot be more precise as the system i use has taken lots of years to develop which cannot possibly be put into simple paragraphs in this forum.....

gold coast martin 00:21 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 00:14 GMT December 16, 2004
I think may be you misread my post.....what the essence of the post is that i place great emphasis on fundamentalss when taking a long position which when combined with techs gives me a timeframe upon which i can risk manage those positions....i apply the same principle to medium and short positions as well although short positions tend to be more harder to risk manage using this application..that is why a flexible timeframe is required to enable the direction to mature.......g/t

Dublin ColumK 00:20 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Howdo,

Ive calculated some turning points using a COBWEB theory. All the indicators need to be confirmed for the pattern to be valid. But the current targets are as follows as long as the pattern holds. Both turning points to occur prior within 3 weeks for all of the below apart from EUR/AUD 6 - 8 week time horizon.

EUR/USD 1ST Turning point 1.3165 (+/- 25)
EUR/USD 2nd Turning point 1.3421 (+/- 25)

GBP/USD 1ST Turning point 1.9057 (+/- 40)
GBP/USD 2nd Turning point 1.9425 (+/- 40)

USD/CHF 1ST Turning point 1.1620 (+/- 25)
USD/CHF 2nd Turning point 1.1437 (+/- 25)

USD/CAD 1ST Turning point 1.1657 (+/- 33)
USD/CAD 2nd Turning point 1.2473 (+/- 33)

6 WEEK HORIZON
EUR/AUD 1ST Turning point 1.6677 (+/- 180)
EUR/AUD 2nd Turning point 17613 (+/- 180)

Nite now,

Rgds,

CK

dc fxq 00:16 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 00:03 GMT

certainly I will, but since it is now my dinner hour I'll defer until later tonight or early in the morning.

There are some elemental facts of international liquidity that I think many peopke miss, eg, the role of Gilts when Sterling was the international standard for settlement that many today miss.

I WILL explain my thesis in detail later.

LONDON BREDA 00:15 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
ROSTOM I LOVE YOU

San Diego DC 00:14 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin,

Regarding your post, I was going to ask you myself before someone else asked you as to how the information you provided you use to time entries and exits. I am not a fundamental trader, just technical but I pay attention to only the report release times. I am yet to meet anyone who can show me how to enter/exit trades with fundamentals. I am not a sacastic person, I truly am interested in how you do it, if you are willing to share.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

gold coast martin 00:04 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Upington kalahari 23:49 GMT December 15, 2004
Good morning and good bye.....the kalahari handle best describes your position..desolate and isolated....

Stockholm AGuy 00:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 23:41 GMT: "[email protected]!!!!"

Would you mind explaining why?

Syd 00:03 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   
Beware worm disguised as Christmas e-card

Internet security experts warned of a new virulent e-mail worm particularly successful in infecting computers as it is disguised as a multilingual electronic Christmas card.

"We think this worm will be big, because of its timing and the fact that it comes in 15 different European languages," Mikko Hyppoenen, head of anti-virus research at Finnish firm F-Secure, said.

The virus, dubbed Zafi.D, is a traditional internet worm infecting computers by e-mail and distributes itself by using e-mail lists on contaminated personal computers.

Its Christmas greeting is in the language of the recipient, decided by the country code -- like ".fi" or ".fr" -- at the end of the e-mail address, making it all the more dangerous, Hyppoenen pointed out.

It also opens a back door on infected PCs, making it possible for outsiders to use them to distribute unsolicited bulk e-mail advertisements, or spam, and launch malicious attacks to close down web sites, he added.

The earlier variants of the Zafi internet worm family were highly dangerous viruses, with the B variant still among the top 10 most virulent bugs several months after it was launched, he said.

While this is the first Zafi worm disguised as a Christmas card, the phenomenon is not new, Hyppoenen said.

"We have seen these hoaxes for several Christmases already, and personally I prefer traditional pen and paper cards, and we recommend this to all our clients too

gold coast martin 00:01 GMT December 16, 2004 Reply   


dc fxq 23:51 GMT December 15, 2004
lol...its ok..perhaps their leaders will make them drink it....out of necessity......g/t

 




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