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Forex Forum Archive for 12/17/2004

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Dublin ColumK 21:33 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
As they say around here.

Alrioght bud, have 'a gud wan.

Enjoy your weekend, good posts this week.

CK

Vilnius Val 20:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
KL, can you summarize what results you doing per day/week/month with such pipsing. Wish you good luch with it, my attempts to do similar work few years crashed few accounts, hope you doing well :)

Auckland NZ peat 20:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
KL
Eur/USD u mean 1.3284?

KL KL 19:56 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
ok long eurjpy 138.58 ..also eurusd 1.3484 ..both sl 11 below letting this one run///apart from gbpusd...what a boring day!!! Maybe Christmas party has started and corks popping...forex party ended...short term

NYC 19:48 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Lake Forest. Here is a tip. This is the thinnest period of the year and alot of traders have already closed theior books for the year. So be careful over the next two weeks as price action tends to be thin and choppy.

Lake Forest AU 19:47 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
This looks to be a great site! I'm new to forex trading, any tips?

dc fxq 19:31 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
shall do and you also, see you on the other side!

SanFrancisco TG 19:29 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
no problemo dc. have a good weekend.

dc fxq 19:11 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
thanks tg, I live just ober the river from DC on the VA side but hadn't heard or read anythimng about it in the WPost or WTimes.

Halifax CB 19:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
BTW, HK Kev - hope you didn't give up your USDCAD pos. You'd be sitting pretty now. I got back in after 1.223 held and we retraced back above my sl. so at least the effects of my idiocy hav been temporarily mitigated.

Sydney 19:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
traders also say the $A looks likely to encounter selling pressure for now on any move above US76.5.

Halifax CB 19:06 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Someone posted the other day a bit of an article from (China news?) about China's actions re. forex, in which china denied "speculating" (using words in a Mad Hatterish way, I suppose...). Anyway, there's a report in yesterday's National Post from Dow Jones (by Agnes Clark) , citing estimates from Merrill Lynch that of the approx. 150 billion $ increase in China's foregn reserves over the last year, only about 40 bil. has found it's way back into US markets. Merrill Lynch (Jason Daw) surmises the rest has been diversified into euro & yen instruments. ...
Alas the article is not on-line, unless some one has access to the text directly from DJ...

SanFrancisco TG 19:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
dc, sorry cant remember. Republican, but I caught a Democrat a few days ago with same basic message but didn't take it seriously.

Sydney 18:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Aussie is no longer flavour of the month (nor is Canadian
dollar) we may see a dip before year end with specs clearing out positions , also the Big Dollar looks like its got more upside in it Aussie struggled today around this level

dc fxq 18:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
tg, who is the congressman?

SanFrancisco TG 18:35 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
On the bright side maybe it means nothing happens since they are on top of it, and the US just uses the case to economically/politically strangle the bad guys instead of a strike. Had to expect this.

Ldn 18:34 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
AUDUSD
AUD/USD has avoided the 0.7550/40 level so fare, but if visited again, that support may not hold a third time around and the pair could go on to test the recent 0.7450 lows. 0.7620 is an upside swing level.
sexy bank

Atl TJ 18:23 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 18:08 GMT December 17, 2004

If true that is just friggen lovely. Kinda makes you wonder what other stupidity lurks in the future.

GER ad 18:22 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
CAD stronger today because Oil prices IMHO and USD crosses direction is not clear so I bought EUR/CAD at 1.6260 S/L (now) at 1.6240 T/P at 1.6320 if seen today.

Memphis Charles 18:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
John, not sure if problem is on my end but the 15th is still the last day that shows up.

Memphis Charles 18:17 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks John.

Tallinn viies 18:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:00 GMT - yes thin, thats what Im counting on :)

OK SZ 18:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 16:19 GMT December 17, 2004
system just gave buy signal on gbp/usd at 66

ok really done for the year out at 19430...good weekend all

SanFrancisco TG 18:08 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Congressman has disclosed on tv just now they are aware that Iran has been behind terror plans to attack US nuclear facilities. Lengthy intel being sited. This is very serious I would think.

Ldn 18:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD Slumps As Oil Gains

Halifax CB 18:06 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
RE USDCAD, secondary resistance has held in the 1.223 area, which we'll take as the bae of the triangle for now.

SanFrancisco TG 18:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OMIL. Problem is by the time it gets there the day will be done LOL with me sitting here with my finger stuck out for another hour over the keyboard haha.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:00 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
TG FWIW I believe the 3330-40 area for eur/usd pair should hold for today. It is a thin market and anything can happen LOL

Tallinn viies 18:00 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
wanna see close over 1,3335 to be honest.
or else this upside momentum may start to decline and ....

jkt-aye 17:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
any news/rumour behind this move on cable ?

NYC Bud Fox 17:56 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sell aussie here. top reached stop at 7655

SanFrancisco TG 17:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
looks like i should have actually picked up euros too, woops

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:44 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Well the eur/usd pair wiggled today for a range of 100 pips clearing some stops up and down the table (the usual virgin sacrificial ceremony for Friday). The market sets it self up now for the holidays, end of the year proceedings and the probable hibernation that follows. Still have the key support to take out and resistance to deal with but most important it is winter and I will have to concentrate my efforts now to a nice bottle of Brandy. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend see you on the other side. GL GT

Halifax CB 17:32 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Well, I'm out of that one. Ouch :)

Halifax CB 17:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin - good call, my entry was way to high (live & learn), though I have stayed in. Looks like the bottom resistance is of the triangle is holding for now, it just touched & reversed(when these things happen it always surprises me). GL...

HK Kevin 17:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 16:52 GMT, joined you at 1.2258 as USD/CAD has met my downside intraday target.

SanFrancisco TG 17:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hope my earlier comment prevented someone from entering short euros at 60 or so. Actually almost went long but havent liked the bid seeing how 3300 has been rejected.

GVI john 16:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Charles posted now. Thanks for reminding me. Old age setting in.

GENEVA FHR 16:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Crude Oil 46.10

Halifax CB 16:52 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
well, my $CAD long got picked up. Here's my support levels - 1.2275= worried,1.226= why the f*** did I buy that, 1.225=crackers for supper again....

Global-View 16:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Charlie. Thought we posted the data. Will look into it.

Memphis Charles 16:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
John, do you know when you'll post 12/16 data? Thanks.

SanFrancisco TG 16:31 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Market has been short for an hour. I wont short again unless it gets back up to roughly 3280. Entering a new short here at 60 could very well work but the risk is higher.

Key levels for me I have worked from are 3280, 3250, 3230 and 3200.

US inflation data was very mild.

sg tpe 16:28 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
euro downside seem ltd for today? me short since yest at 1.3294.

OK SZ 16:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
system just gave buy signal on gbp/usd at 66

Halifax CB 16:18 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - I closed the eurousd short, though I wouldn't be surprised to see it shortable again as the afternoon grinds on. GL...

HK Kevin 16:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:47 GMT 7 GMT, just back from a great bath. Sorry, it should be CAD short from 1.2354 and closed at 1.2327. Now at 1.2306.
Re EUR, took profit of ~200 pips before NY close. Miss the short from 1.33 earlier and now just watching. May short again near 1.2290/00 if seen again today.

slv sam 16:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
cad ccy is strong...imo us$will be heading lower toward the close!GT

manila stubbs 15:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
yes that is true for me as well, but specifically with usdchf.

Halifax CB 15:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Kevin - did you mean 1.235x? (i.e CAD)... Thought you meant euro's. If so, good trade.

Halifax CB 15:53 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Actually manila, I don't think there's a pair I haven't impaled my account on. I even lose at monopoly when I'm the banker :)

manila stubbs 15:50 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:47 GMT December 17, 2004

funnily enough, i always get killed with that too.

Halifax CB 15:47 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks HK & Kevin - I am short on the EURUSD from just after 1500 GMT; I'll keep an eye on $CHF because that's one I always get murdered on....The $CAD I'm waiting with a buy order in the 1.2290's, and sl around 25p down (I would maybe move that as much as another 25p down, if I'm around when/if it gets picked up..)

HK Kevin 15:46 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Closed short USD/CAD at 1.2327.

HK Kevin 15:41 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:18 GMT , 4-hr chart tells me to sell. Previously short from 1.3254 for intraday trade.

Halifax CB 15:39 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Toronto - it's most clearly visible on my hourlies.

Toronto YV 15:39 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Toronto , H1 , H4 .

Toronto YV 15:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB , EUR/$ , $/CHF triangles forming as well .

Toronto 15:35 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
CB. What time frame chart is that on?

Halifax CB 15:18 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
FWIW there's a nice triangle forming on $CAD from 15:00 Dec 14th...

B.A. BOCA 15:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
dollar: wheels are spinning but the car is not going anywhere.

time to focus on the important things, like the barca-chelsea matchup.

GL

Jakarta r4v3n 15:00 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the info

Stockholm AGuy 14:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta r4v3n 14:45 GMT:

Bad news from Pfizer.

NYC 14:48 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta. it has to do with a Pfizer announcement about one of its products that has hit tis stock. A trade imbalance has kept Pfizer from opening on time. Once it opens, DOW will move lower.

Jakarta r4v3n 14:45 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Question: does anybody here watching the stock future??? I have been watching the dow future, 5 minutes before the spot index open, the future drop 60 points, and after the spot open it goes back up...why the sudden drop??? tia

perrie como 14:35 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
btw some brokers are organized electronically to show where the bunch of stops is too, so do not get surprised of those technical books not working anymore...market has changed

perrie como 14:31 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
am just bored of those tax su.....ers, and I tell you when they do need to work out you small fishes, the game is almost at the end

dc fxq 14:21 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 14:18 GMT

Lol, good on ya mate!

perrie como 14:18 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
dxq....am not trading those pairs where central banks playing...have some med term very far at present...sometimes I do enter short term but guess Is better to wait the big to kill between them...am becoming very chinese

Antwerp Tom 14:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
B747 9:45 GMT done (Jay) Went $ long now, so if hit ma'aser will be even bigger ;^)

prague viktor 14:13 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
B747..yes mate ....agree with u ..(about brave) and wish u good luck.. with ur long run..G/T

dc fxq 13:59 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 13:46 GMT

would you feel the same way if they were selling USD?

GOES B747 13:47 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
viktor,

the cemetry is full with brave people, I prefer to see myself as medium-long term (3YR-5YR yield bottom line oriented) investor.

cheers!

gt

perrie como 13:46 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
there were again those european smaller central banks squeezing today.....guess It's too easy with taxpayers money...then why to buy us bonds with our money....maybe we could sue them, as see who are them financing dmn

http://www.investigate911.com/bushfacts.htm

prague viktor 13:42 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 13:13 GMT December 17, 2004 ..G/T mate with the E/Y.. and ur a very brave trader..do u see the euro its like a dust in the wind..

Sing GD 13:41 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
But then lets look at this on a weekly basis , we are back at the all important 1.3230 area of last Friday , maybe a close below this week sees EUR weaker , USD stronger ...

Well stops run , now off for sure

gold coast martin 13:39 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   



Sing GD 13:37 GMT December 17, 2004
....IMO....Not confusing.....fund squaring=DOLLAR STRENGTH
...still having beers sounds good....g/t

Sing GD 13:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Well confused .. thats it for the week ...

Have fun later .. beer time

GL all

B.A. BOCA 13:33 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
seems like market not sure what to make of inflation data...fits this trading environment perfectly. be careful

RIYADH 13:30 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
TEST

GOES B747 13:13 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
caba,

"GOES B747 15:00 GMT December 14, 2004
viktor // I am not sure about 50bps, heard an Israeli banker saying in public that chances for 50bps hike were over 50%

not happy with the current EUR/JPY spot price, but do not see a problem for me as price of 170-175 will start to make me worry...my target for EUR/JPY is below 120/- and I will take the time to get there.

gt"

Philadelphia Caba 13:08 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 13:05 GMT December 17, 2004

Thanks, r'u already in short or still waiting?

GOES B747 13:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
caba,

imho:
after making the first 180pips, start openning new shorts and add s/l that blocks 50% of profits; personally, I use leverage ranging 1:3-8.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
OK Jay...No problem with that..Will do.. :)

Philadelphia Caba 12:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 12:50 GMT December 17, 2004

Thanks, I'm on your side, just looking for closing below 138.00 for opening position.

Ldn 12:57 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thu's below-consensus US 3Q current account numbers were a positive surprise for the dollar, but even after revisions the 3Q current account deficit is still 5.6% of nominal GDP This is a major problem and the bank sees the USD within half a standard deviation of fair value, so has no plans to change its bearish view. It still sees a EUR/USD move above 1.40 by late 2005 and USD/JPY around 95. ABN Amro

GOES B747 12:50 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 12:37 GMT // good afternoon, I am short minded and looking for price under 125/- during 2005

gt

Philadelphia Caba 12:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone!

GOES B747 , may I ask you on your eurjpy view? r'u already i short? thanks.

GT!

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:35 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Jay,
OK to post? TIA

GOES B747 12:33 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
for the smokers amons us:

http://www.no-smoking.org/nov04/11-08-04-4.html


gt

NJ RT 12:23 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips : Thank you .... got it

Madrid SH 12:20 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thks J.B. just made a cool 52 pips needed that post to get me going. Seen your posts before.

U.K. J.B. 10:54 GMT December 17, 2004
The negative move on cable when we hit 1.9445 indicates to me we are heading lower. My view is anything between here and 1.9450 where i have strong res is a sell looking for 1.9200 GL

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:16 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
the report icon will show the return

NJ RT 12:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips: I would like to try the demo account - that you've been talking couple days back - also. Can you please send me the info ? Thank you

dc fxq 12:08 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 12:03 GMT

CAD moving on +0.5% CPI number, wht's that to do with EURUSD?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Auckland,
What do think of the demo so far?

slv sam 12:03 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
euro weakness is false imho view cad is showing strenght! expecting euro to move strongly up later today!GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hello Traders

SanFrancisco TG 11:41 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Took the pips at 90. Don't normally post activity but thought I might contribute a little.

Sydney E.M. 11:38 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
"News Corp becomes less of an Australian company tonight," he said.

As a result Australian fund managers, who only deal with local companies, would be forced to sell their News Corp shares to offshore investors, Mr Bowmer said.

"So there is going to be US dollars being handed to investors here who are selling their News Corp stake, and they will then have to turn that into Aussie dollars," he said.

Portland Neil 11:34 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 03:16 GMT December 17, 2004
NYC YIPPEE 02:48 GMT December 17, 2004
FWIW Buying EURUSD @ 1.3247 Stop 1.3180 Target 1.3460.
FWIW Buying AUDUSD @ .7590 Stop .7545 Target .7730.
FWIW Selling GBPJPY @ 202.05 Stop 202.80 Target 200.20

amman wfakhoury 11:33 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Fakhtani
we are doing 10-15 pips each time..and that already done

Stuttgart HW 11:31 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
In my opinion, it should go up. No Bank that holds Euro's has any incentive to sell below and at this level. I think we will be able to see them pushing up. GL/GT

Amm Fakhatni 11:28 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Amman , iam also from yr town , but euro going down now, do you still insist going up

Sing GD 11:27 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Cable right on 10 day MA support if holds and should see 1.9450 again , if breaks we see daily lows again ..

CPI holds key today , if does not excite market call it quits and go for beers ..

GL all

SanFrancisco TG 11:17 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Trailing the short Euro from 3310

Halifax CB 11:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Syd 10:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Your posting sparked me to check out the action on the pound. I don't know if you follow the EURGBP cross but seeing how the pound is strengthening against the euro since the end of November, and how the euro (I think) has topped against the dollar for the time being, tends to support that POV. At least enough to be cautious re. shorting the pound.Thanks...

Amman wfakhoury 10:57 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/Usd will continue rising this hour too

U.K. J.B. 10:54 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
The negative move on cable when we hit 1.9445 indicates to me we are heading lower. My view is anything between here and 1.9450 where i have strong res is a sell looking for 1.9200 GL

Minsk (Belarus) Eugene Pivnev 10:53 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Beforehand I ask to excuse me for my bad English

Minsk (Belarus) Eugene Pivnev 10:52 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
" Most likely, within day, speculative interest to actions of "YUKOS" will be kept, though their quotations cannot exceed $1. Additional demand for papers of "Surgutneftegaz" as the probability of its participation in auction on "Yuganskneftegaz" grows " also can appear. Actions of "Gazprom", on the contrary, can test some pressure which should not be strong. If papers of "Gazprom" will fall in price, it will be possible to take advantage of this opportunity for their purchase as on Monday, most likely, to actives of the company "Yuganskneftegaz" " nevertheless will join, are my assumptions, can lean{base} on them today..

Syd 10:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
U.K. Pound Heads for Weekly Gain; Speculation Bank May Lift Rate Next Year
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. pound is headed for its ninth weekly advance in 10 against the dollar as evidence of higher inflation stokes speculation the Bank of England may lift its benchmark interest rate next year.

Minsk (Belarus) Eugene Pivnev 10:47 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
In RTS all emitters trading at present fall. "Gazprom" has fallen in price on 2,52 %, "LUKOIL" - on 1,96 %, "Rostelecom" - on 0,29 %.

Minsk (Belarus) Eugene Pivnev 10:46 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Index of RTS as of 12:00 Moscow time. Fridays has decreased on 0,56 % to closing yesterday's tenders and has made 564,18 points.

GOES B747 10:46 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 10:42 GMT // true, but they will establish the power plants just cross the German border to save on labor costs; the largest buyer of the production is Germany.

in other words, jobless number going to sky rocket.

gt

Ldn 10:42 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Utility giant E.On AG (EON) Friday said it will invest some EUR18.7 billion between 2005 and 2007, mainly on power generation and gas and electricity infrastructure in its core Central European market unit.

gold coast martin 10:41 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....Good entry levels for yen at 10415-18...to t/p at 10527.....stop 10376...g/t

Ldn 10:31 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Euro US Investment interest keeping Dealers on their toes

slv sam 10:22 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
watching cad today i can predict us$ will be heading even lower imho.GT

SanFrancisco TG 10:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I see the bias having shifted to short from 3310 for a tight one to 3280. If there's more great, otherwise I'm locked in and ready to reverse higher.

Stuttgart HW 10:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sold USDCHF
Bought AUDUSD

Stuttgart HW 10:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Good morning @ everyone, for now:

Bought EURUSD
Bought

GOES B747 10:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 10:10 GMT // south-west of the Netherlands; just on the north sea.

gt

Eilat Dolphin 10:10 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
B747/ The mistype was acceptable, it's the correction that's not really oxfordian, but then who cares but me? ;^)

By the way where is Goes? Since you don't seem to live on the satellite.

Amman wfakhoury 10:10 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Goes..norisk on my call..just try them

GOES B747 10:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Amman Wfakhoury 10:05 GMT // I know and understand you, but such calls may bring people into huge risks; does 'hourly momentum calls' describe best your calls?

gt

Sing GD 10:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GBP quick ajustment lower , charts not even taking notice , still point to a buy .. GL all

amman wfakhoury 10:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
for example..it rises 12 pips till now

Amman Wfakhoury 10:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES ; I am giving if the market will be up and down..during the hour starting 00..such as 1200 1300 etc.
try to get the maximum.

GOES B747 10:02 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Amman // if it makes you a problem = if it makes you no problem ... sorry for the mistype.

gt

SanFrancisco TG 10:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I'm pretty confident Euro bias has shifted to sell after that bout of purchasing even if only for a little while.

GOES B747 09:59 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 09:57 GMT // if it makes you a problem, please mention the maximal rise in pips according to your forecast. I am sure that you don't want to make your calls to make people lose when market fills your calls but later changes.

tia & gt

Amman wfakhoury 09:57 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hi ,
EUR/USD will rise during this hour.

GOES B747 09:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:53 GMT // she she nie

gt

GOES B747 09:54 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 09:49 GMT // thank you and the very same to you; may you ask Jay to foward me your email address as I would like to ask some more questions that don't match the forum/site rules.

tia & gt

Hong Kong Qindex 09:53 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:49 GMT - Around 1.5 quantum step, i.e. 1.3458.

GOES B747 09:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
good morning Qindex,

which price will represent that the pulling power in gone/over?

tia & gt

Antwerp Tom 09:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
B747 9:32 GMT really don't know what rest of the day will bring, lost touch a little bit by being away couple of days and the people i talk to tell me they don't know: will we resume the $ downtrend right away or is some more $ bulishness in store before going up in again? Check with Viies (believer of the first) OMIL (observer first) and Alimin.
Some are looking for 13:30 GMT cpi number to answer that question. Be'hatzlacha

Ldn 09:48 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR / USD

riyadh 09:44 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
test

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:24 GMT December 14, 2004
EUR/USD : As shown in my 3-month projection profile the market is still under the sphere of pulling force from the "super magnet" located at 1.3067.


C) : ... // 1.2026* - 1.2286 - 1.2546 - 1.2807 - {1.3067}* - 1.3328 - 1.3588 - 1.3848 - 1.4108* // ...

Tallinn viies 09:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
this comment from MNI should support euro for all day I think:
EURO-DOLLAR: One trader calls in to say that market talk mentions E2bln to be bought at the London 'fix' (1300gmt), suggests that this has provided the bullish undertone in European morning trade, the release of better than expected Ifo providing an added boost to take rate up to a high around $1.3315. Rate currently trades around $1.3302. Also in the
background, the mentioned large amount of option expiries with a $1.3250 strike suggested to attract rate toward this level into the expiry. Amount of expiries mentioned to be in the region of E10bln.
re installed euro long again at 1,3274
target 1,3460/65
cu later

GOES B747 09:32 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 08:49 GMT // good morning, actually I got some fear and did not took more shorts above 1.3420+++ that day (many people talked about spike towards 1.36+++ and I did not followed my plan (again!!! :)), but I well managed to go back towards better floating position.

B'H' it will go fine and I will fill my wish and duty about the ma'sser...what it is your view for the rest of the day?

tia & gt

perrie como 09:31 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
US CPI will be very likely above expectations as the deficit showed yesterday increase given particurlarly by Oil supplies

g/l inflation

Sing GD 09:29 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD could see 1.3350 resistance tested FWIW , remember
US CPI data tonight as well 8.30 am EST

Good luck all

lLdn 09:27 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: Edges Lower As Dollar Loses Shine

Syd 09:23 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
MOF Gyohten: Lower US Current Account Deficit Unlikely

Hong Kong Qindex 09:22 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas Mauricio 09:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone. I managed to catch the Cable rocket @ 1.9368. Have 1/3 of my position still open.

London 09:13 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD and EUR/JPY buying by CTA accounts.

perrie como 09:10 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Reading yesterday's Bush on debt related social security and other matters, now have no doubts that US Bonds will crash with the USD togheter

g/l

WASHINGTON - President Bush declared Thursday that the Social Security system has already reached a "crisis" stage as he made the case for an expansive second-term domestic agenda that would dramatically restructure the nation's retirement program, tax code and legal liability system.

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/10436420.htm

"One of my charges," Bush said in a 39-minute speech at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, "is to explain to Congress as clearly as I can: 'The crisis is now. You may not feel it, your constituents may not be overwhelming you with letters demanding a fix now, but the crisis is now.'

London. 09:08 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
UR/USD edges up and March bunds dip on a firmer German Dec Ifo of 96.2 vs 93.8 expected.

Syd 09:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
German Dec Ifo Current Conditions Highest Since Mar 2001

Sing GD 09:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
IFO - EUR positive up to 96.2

Hong Kong Qindex 09:03 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Antwerp Tom 09:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 7:15 GMT join the minyan! After the services we all expect you to offer us your delicious falafel :-)

Antwerp Tom 08:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
B747 14:08 GMT December 15: chance for price under 1.3180 during the next 45 days?
You must have meant 45 hours...LOL
Was away travelling yesterday and missed the whole action.
i think a lot of Tsedaka money is shaping up for those you want to help! GL GT

Sing GD 08:40 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Well back to GBP pop around London open , 1 hour charts looking bid , and buy signals on GBP and EUR - FWIW

Plovdiv Gotin 08:30 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hi mates. Where cud I find corporite bond prices?TIA.

perrie como 08:24 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
tks 747...I see the russian concept of auctions, but guess the american one is the same,....they are just smarter in not showing out so clearly that moeny flows to swissie

perrie como 08:22 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd seemingly wants to print out again the 1.33 and funny this levele means nothing technically

GOES B747 08:20 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
como, in Russian aution Aeroflot sold for $9.99; steel factories sold for $4.99 and so on; it will go to china name only if gazprom top will allow that (while making some $$$).


gt

perrie como 08:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
747

well hard to say in an auction who whill get yukos before the auction ended..

however the bigger bidders were Chinese Petroleum...or else is not an auction

gold coast martin 08:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:11 GMT December 17, 2004
AC....we had some very good laughs during the year...may we have many more next year....as i value your posts, more forex input from you in the forum is always appreciated... .g/t

perrie como 08:13 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
more an impression than anything else

but smells the dollar might be slammered again heavily today...do not have a clue from were or how, maybe against all

at the end in history central bank interventions had usually a very negative effect the day after

g/l

enough for me too here...demo guess has to be talked on the help forum

SanFrancisco TG 08:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Martin. I've been long twice, once near end of NY and once just a bit ago near 50 once the only real retrace failed to clear under 40. Looking for 80 challenge to TP or hold. Enough from me too.

Good luck PA

Haifa ac 08:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 07:19 GMT December 17, 2004
i haven't been able to find a strategy that works for me// You must try the Kamma Sutra then.

GOES B747 08:11 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 08:07 GMT December 17, 2004 // gazprom gets yukos, it is actually a done deal.
Putin must give yukos to gazprom as by not doing that he will risk losing his 'krisha'.

gt

gold coast martin 08:11 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Singapore 08:07 GMT December 17, 2004
Coming up to 15 years this january the 1st(full time managing and trading forex}...g/t

Haifa ac 08:11 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:28 GMT December 17, 2004
"good luck for the rest of the year......"//That's it? I get 14 days?

PA MTD 08:10 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb

thanks for the information and timelines :-) I have a long way to go! I'll check out those readings and possibly pick a few to read. I have some coming on technical analysis, and candlesticks. So I need to really get through them first.

And to everyone else who helped me, thanks....i'll be here often to watch and learn and still burn! j/k Thanks! :-)

gold coast martin 08:08 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 08:01 GMT December 17, 2004
That is propably a safe strategy ..waiting for confirmation of certian levels...i am short due to my long term short positions from 134+..if i was contemplating going short at current levels i would most certainly wait for breach of 13187 and 13156 all within a space of 3 hours...then i would short at 13148 level...and let it run until end of year with an 80 pip stop.....thats enough from me today...too much posting and taking space.............g/t

Singapore 08:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin - how long u trade FX ?

perrie como 08:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Seemingly Bush is trying to stop the Chinese to buy Yukos, but without international poltical agreements the judge in nyc might have hard times to act in siberia

g/l


Judge Blocks Auction of Yukos' Subsidiary
Fri 2:06AM ET - Associated Press
A U.S. bankruptcy judge has granted Russian oil giant Yukos' request for a temporary injunction to block this weekend's auction of its main production subsidiary in Moscow, but an official with the Kremlin-backed buyer says the sale will go on as planned.

SanFrancisco TG 08:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sounds like the bulls are just taking a breath Martin.

beirut jb 08:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 07:53 GMT

hi mate

this business need at least 3 years , forget about all advertizing saying 3 days and 3 months,

to learn technical analysis and trading method and to be
able to read what chart say u need 1 year , six months at least if u have mentor,

to be able to beat ur psycho and ur ego u need at least 2 years , 1 year with a mentor and u should know that 90% of traders loss all their money before acheaving this goal

Luca's book will fefinitly give u an idea about forex but will never teach u trading

beleive me u have to be patient and offcorse u have to read a lot, start with classical such murphy and pring and other stuff and read marc douglas for psycho

GL GT

gold coast martin 08:02 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
couresse=of course..

SanFrancisco TG 08:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Martin - I'm not short yet however haha.

gold coast martin 08:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 07:51 GMT December 17, 2004
..Very true TG...the moment you feel you stop learning in forex ,thats the moment you start to lose, and that is A good indicator telling you to start learning again.....
As far as euro is concerned..lets not forget that we are still over 130...which is still top heavy(fundamentally for the euro}..as i said 3 weeks ago,unless we see the 13085 barrier breached we are still in the euro lovers side of the fence..these corrections are what is needed to effectively shake the market and get the market to re-focus on the EU FUNDAMENTALS..which of courese can be more euro negative than euro positive..given the so-called twin deficit,,,,,,,,g.t

nyc sa 07:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Jay , would u be kind enough to update forex-history ?

PA MTD 07:53 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I like to think of myself as a "quick learner." I am getting a book next week called "Trading in the Global Currency Markets" By Cornelius Luca so maybe that will help me out. I've been doing a lot of reading off the the internet too. I am willing to dedicate myself.

lax-lgb SNP 07:52 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
ML & TG - trust all's well ... i gotta go - long day tomm - cya laterz pplz

lax-lgb SNP 07:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
FWiW its one thing to make $ 91k in profits and another to keep it ;-)

p.s. both / and / weeklies are hanging men but lets wait to see where the mkt closes

SanFrancisco TG 07:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Martin, on Euro thats obviously been bouncing around in my little bean too. Upside has that running out of time feel to it intra day.

PA - 3 months is just dipping your toe in the water. This is going to require major dedication and years to learn, never to be totally mastered in likelyhood. I hear guys who've been at this 20 years say they still learn.

PA MTD 07:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Portland Neil

no i don't use real money. I would be broke if I did that.

I don't have much experience in FX, but i'll be more than glad to talk about it in the help forum.

GOES B747 07:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:45 GMT // thank you for sharing, toda and spassibba...le'chaim!!

if it makes no problem for you, please ask Jay to forward me your email address, thank you in advance!
btw, realistic is very dangerous in FX sometimes :)

gl & gt

perrie como 07:49 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Have a happy friday 17

seemingly yesterday's market was enough messy as I see here talks about demo accounts :))

guess It was messy also for those smaller european central banks too.....the market is to quiet to be true at present

g/day

Portland Neil 07:48 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 07:42// Is he now trading with real money??? Are you using a demo account? Do you want to have a chat in the help forums because I am new to this too and perhaps we can bounce some ideas of each other?

gold coast martin 07:45 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 06:30 GMT December 17, 2004

You are obvious wanting what i want.....another euro sell feast tonite induced by funds....efectivelly more profit taking should be seen tonite as the ballance of propabilities that the euro will breach the 13368 tonite are very low... there is only another direction ...down to 13167...your stops are ok...
With the Yen an exit level of 10527+ is very realistic .....one thing to be aware of is that due to chopiness as soon as it gets to your t/p figure ...exit...dont push fot extra pips..you may give back more than what you stand to gain....
FWIW...crude has got some downside tonite ...at 44 it looks heavy...42.80 is a good tatger with a 44 entry....good trades ..

PA MTD 07:45 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Never..i wouldn't throw my real money into forex yet. I've been using a demo account off and on for about 3 months. I have only recently started using it regularly for about 2 nights now, for at least 7-8 hours at a time. I invest in the stock market too, so alot of my day is concentrated into that, and forex is usually at night. USA(EST)

SanFrancisco TG 07:43 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
How long have you been using real money PA?

PA MTD 07:42 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
a couple months ago my friend was using a demo account and made 91,000 trading the EUR/USD

PA MTD 07:38 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Portland Neil 07:34

There is definitely potential in Forex, and I can see it happening all the time, I just can't figure it out. :-

PA MTD 07:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I always ask a lot of questions because I like to understand things. I feel hesistant to ask questions because this forum is very experienced; there is a help forum, but that doesn't move very much. And so I don't get that opportunity to ask questions that much because I feel like someone out there is going to get on me and then I feel dumb.

I have been working solely with the EUR/USD for the past couple of nights. My best run was 11pips and so far I can't do anything else than that.

Portland Neil 07:34 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 07:32 GMT// I know how you feel!! I'm sure its voodoo or something.Its just amazing.

ICT ML 07:33 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 07:19 GMT December 17, 2004
i haven't been able to find a strategy that works for me

One observation, you are trying to trade in a very dangerous time of year with liquidity issues. A major part of the game is to know when to just watch and when to jump in. That takes some hard lessons being learned. Right now I doubt we'll take any more trades until after the holidays unless I see something that looks like a sustained move just getting started. GBP-USD move Thurs US session is prime example of what can happen when market is thin.

We make the $$$$ off getting in on good runs then try like helll to give it all back in the consolidation choppiness that follows. Eventually I hope to get away from the giving it all back effort :-)

gold coast martin 07:33 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   


SanFrancisco TG 07:30 GMT December 17, 2004
Solid post TG......Also Fwiw try to learn a lot more about one currency and to start off with trade only one pair....will give you a lot of confidence and you can expand your pair dealings as you learn more.....g/t

GOES B747 07:32 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 07:28 GMT // lol...good one; minyet get lead to finish as pizdetz :)

may you pay attention for my post of 06:30GMT, please.



tia & gt

PA MTD 07:32 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
thanks for the advice. I usually watch the 1hr, 2hr, and daily. I still dont understand how some of these people predict large price moves...i need someone to take me under their wing, and work with me. :-)

SanFrancisco TG 07:30 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I guarantee you there are far more mistakes being made than publicized here. One thing I might suggest is to consider looking outside the box, meaning look outside the 5 minute chart and such. Currencies tend to actually move in cycles of greater time frames intra day. Don't get caught up in the posts of 75 trades a day for 5 pips each.

gold coast martin 07:28 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:15 GMT December 17, 2004
GOES B747 07:13 GMT // I saw your shmooze with Antwerp and I almost invited a few to minyan.

lol..haifa.....its ok to minyan but do not offer minyet to russians!!!...good luck for the rest of the year......

PA MTD 07:25 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I understand it is going to take time. I can barely make a profit, ever. Then I see you people on here predicting things left and right and making 200 pips at a time. I can't even get 5! lol

SanFrancisco TG 07:23 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA - It takes years to learn any craft requiring skill.

PA MTD 07:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
i haven't been able to find a strategy that works for me

GOES B747 07:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:15 GMT // there is no problem to get minyan @ global-view :) ... it is about what you feel, not about about see/show (i.e. ma'asser and emuna).

gt

Haifa ac 07:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 07:13 GMT // I saw your shmooze with Antwerp and I almost invited a few to minyan.

PA MTD 07:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
ahhh...ok. thanks. i suck at this game.

Haifa ac 07:14 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 07:10 GMT //t/p=taking profit

GOES B747 07:13 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
le'chaim ac...nice one!

gt

PA MTD 07:10 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
and turning pale means...

SanFrancisco TG 07:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
In my view Euro 3300 has been disregarded in recent sessions trading. 3320 and 3280 have held more congestion, so either of these points could serve as potential reversal points intra day. TP on the long some time ago from NY call.

Syd 07:03 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Australian Shares End At Record, Index Just Shy Of 4000-

Haifa ac 07:03 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
turning pale!

PA MTD 07:02 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
GOES what is t/p?

LA Fxnew 06:59 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
any thought for cable now?
Thanks

Ldn 06:56 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
INTRA-DAY PROFITABLE FX MOVESLILNK

GOES B747 06:30 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
good morning all,

wondering if it worth yo enter the following for day trades, many many thanks for you comments and remarks:

EUR/USD:
sell @ 1.3273 (50%) 1.3294 (50%)
s/l 1.3325/30
t/p @ 1.3185/90

USD/JPY:
buy @ 104.23
s/l @ 103.75
t/p @ 105.30

gt

Minsk E.P. 06:29 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
. . !!

riyadh 06:23 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
WF pull up a 5min euro/usd chart look at the 2 high and also look at macd indicator look at the two wave the 1st one is higher than the last one

London NR 06:21 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone.Anything exciting about to happen? :)

riyadh 06:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
sell both on gbp and euro when there is negative divergence on MACD on any time frame 5min 15 or 1hr just pull the triger SELL opposite for positive diverg BUY

Amman wfakhoury 06:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Riyadh...10 pips already sell or buy

Syd 06:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
SYDNEY (AFX) - Share prices closed higher, propelling the key market indices to record levels as investors bought resources stocks and News Corp's ordinary stock, dealers said.

riyadh 06:08 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Same happen on euro/usd MACD - dirv easy 10 pips already

riyadh 06:06 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
There you go guys MACD +and - work look on gbp/usd 10 pips already

London. 06:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Japanese firms scramble for steel supply as carmakers slash output
December 16, 2004

Tokyo - Japanese industry is rushing to ensure stable supplies of steel from South Korea and Australia as a global shortage, caused largely by China's booming economy, leads to further production cuts by automakers.



LINK

riyadh Ismael 06:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Look guy on gbp/usd negative MACD on 5 min chart time to gram 10-20 pip

wellington am 05:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Well, nice to see the Roo finding it's stride. For any bearish doubters still in our midst, pull up a daily chart of EUR/AUD or AUD/NZD - this budding marsupial's got a long way further to jump.

LDN. 05:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
JPY holding near 104.43 low of the day traders say Dollar heavy.

riyadh 05:56 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
[email protected] here you go Amman

Sydney 05:52 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
whats the saying never go into the weekend short aud

Amman wfakhoury 05:52 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Riyadh..what is your email to send you some useful tips on eur/usd

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:48 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:58 GMT December 17, 2004
I agree it sure is great to have BC on our side of the pond once in a while. Thanks for all the great calls BC and better yet for the advice throughout the year. Farmacia dont forget to include yourself in there too thanks for the time, effort and ideas mate. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:39 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Good to see some of the more experienced participants from GVI grazing the FF pastures. Another year is about to close on us all and time to reflect at the past year (the good, the bad, and the ugly). For the eur/usd pair the market cannot break the top and cannot over take the key support for now. The $ bears have dominated for a while now and do not want to let go of the controls that easily yet. The $ bulls have many good points on why this $ correction must take place immediately. Both sides have good arguments as we can see by the swings lately on this pair. I will sit back for now and let the market decide and go with the flow. Here are the latest numbers for eur/usd pair, as the market could not break the retracement support (3200-10) yesterday.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3250-3280, 3340-50, 3380-3400, 3440-50, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3370-80 Support T/L 3050-60 and 3020-30.
Support is around the 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3060-80 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Ldn 05:36 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
The dollar fell against the yen in a quiet pre-holiday Asian session Friday, dragged down by Japanese exporter selling and speculative buying of the yen

Syd 05:35 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Foreign banks in Shanghai lend more in Renminbi



Foreign banking institutions witnessed a faster growth in Renminbi-denominated loans in November in this city, China's largest financial hub.

According to the Shanghai Branch of the People's Bank of China,by the end of November loans outstanding in local currency at foreign financial institutions totaled 43.92 billion yuan (5.3 billion US dollars) in Shanghai.

The increment in the loans outstanding in November was 2.23 billion yuan (268.7 million US dollars).

Of the total loans made in November, 1.79 billion yuan (215.7 million US dollars), or 80.4 percent, were short-term loans.

Source: Xinhua

riyadh 05:30 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
anyone have any trading strategy on euro/usd and gbp/usd I try to used +/_ MACD on 15min and 1 hr chart and pivot points also 5 min chart As you see so far on both euro/usd and gbp/usd 5 min chart we had positive divergence on MACD both both in a easy 30-40 pips
on 15min and 1hr put more pips on the table

Sydney ACC 05:27 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM 05:25 GMT December 17, 2004
This is the best comment I have seen on the AUD/USD in a long time. Congratulations I believe you have succinctly described the issues facing teh Aussie and the likely path.
Others may disagree, but then we have a market.

Riyadh 05:26 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hey Anyone heard about this website genuinefxoline.com there areselling this software for 3000 usd it really work fine

Sydney EM 05:25 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
St George forecasts increase in home lending
Australia's fifth-biggest bank still expects double-digit growth in home lending over the year ahead.
Saint George Bank has been holding its annual general meeting in Sydney.
Outgoing chairman Frank Conroy says that while economic growth has slowed recently, the outlook is for continued growth through 2005.

ABCnews.

gold coast martin 05:12 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 12:25 GMT November 23, 2004


Calabash TarHeel 12:15 GMT November 23, 2004
A repeat of last years action....aussie gets up to late 70s and exporter lobby lean on govnt to voice its cause...also RBA at these levels always come out and sell aussie with the pretense of balancing the treasure when in fact it is a jap style intervention...they only act when aussie is at these levels....i see aussie at these present levels as just about the top for the year... i kind of hope it gets to 80 though in the next 7 days as the fall will be greater and a better entry level will be on offer....g/t and good thanksgiving....


Reason for re-posting the above is to attempt to give traders a clearer picture of the short and medium direction of the dollar......the above was confirmed with the recent sales of currency by the RBA in november(as posted by a trader in this forum earlier on today)...also what is still applicable is my previous post od a week ago that stated that once the aud had broken the 7483 barrier we would not see levels of 78+ again for 8 months....the reasons are obvious...fundamentally at 78+ the aussie becomes a burden on the economy and the government does not want it at that level..combine this with fund exit flows from the euro betw,16-19 of december and the short picture smells of 73 with further medium downside to to 69-70.....good trades and trade safe....

SanFrancisco TG 05:11 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Trembles? Most here are glad to see the growth of western democracy and economics (albeit slow developing in some parts, especially the EU). I think China is outpacing the progress in relative terms, Chinese GDP squashing EU GDP is an example. Its a good thing.

NYC YIPPEE 04:53 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Not really that sure to be honest. Figure if we see another 5%-10% for eur and gbp should start looking the other direction.

London. 04:36 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Now AUD/USD has cleared 0.7575 pair's expected to target 7640, before was being viewed as short term sell
Westpac chartist

Syd 04:28 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
WHEN China moves, the US trembles. But it is not just the US that trembles, the ripples are felt all over the globe. Now that the "Sleeping Giant" has awakened, it is being courted, admonished and feared, all at the same time.
The world's most populous country is making rapid economic advances and this has given rise to concerns as well as admiration and unease among many worldwide.

China factor behind US dollar woes

Syd 04:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
AUD Outlook: Rallies On Inv Bank & Japanese Demand- - See 2348

Sydney EM 04:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
AUD Breaks Above 0.7600 On US Investment Bank Buying

London 04:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
So Yippee ; do you think there is MUCH more sustainable USD downside from here in the years to come? And in the next year ?

Ldn 04:02 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Oil Headed for Biggest Weekly Gain Since March 2003 on Demand

Syd 04:00 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
CommSec's Craig James says Treasury has consistently underestimated size of surplus, with actual result last year almost 4 times original estimate at Budget time, so expect upward revision to May budget's A$2.4 billion projected 2004/05 surplus; in year to October surplus was A$9.1 billion, there is speculation mounting Australian Treasury's Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook likely released Tuesday

London. 03:52 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY second that

Syd 03:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Telstra cuts all about profit: Latham
The job cuts come as the Government pushes ahead with plans to fully privatise Australia's largest telecommunications company.


Opposition upset because they cant do a thing to stop it just
whine

Spotforex NY 03:39 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
FF members...YIPPEE is a legend....read him and take notes.


A happy holiday to all!!!!!!!

Syd 03:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Moving Higher On "Newscorp" Related Buying

Breaks Above On US Investment Bank Buying

NYC YIPPEE 03:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Spot 'tis the season LOL

London. 03:32 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Atl TJ wht you say is true I agree, but the Aussie can be a nice little earner if you can catch the wave the right way, and understand its quirky ways

Spotforex NY 03:27 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Lots of familar posters here tonight...


Did everyone lose their login for GVI side?????

Atl TJ 03:27 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
London. 03:15 GMT December 17, 2004
Agree that EURO and Aussie heading higher at some point. But the profit taking, year end squaring...... Q is how much is done and how much is left to be done. Thin holiday markets have the potential to be skewed. My plan is to SOR for the next few days and keepthe dogs on a short leash. Would not be surprise to see another session or two like todays US session.

Still holding the Cable Short from 1.9500 this morning. Also threw in some Short Euro. Waiting for Aussie to flash Sell to enter.

SanFrancisco TG 03:23 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
In my opinion the "true bias" has been short euro since the week of 12/10 after a one way trip since the week of 9/10. Has me wondering if 3000 isn't in the cards after such powerful gains.

NYC YIPPEE 03:16 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 02:48 GMT December 17, 2004
FWIW Buying EURUSD @ 1.3247 Stop 1.3180 Target 1.3460.
FWIW Buying AUDUSD @ .7590 Stop .7545 Target .7730.
FWIW Selling GBPJPY @ 202.05 Stop 202.80 Target 200.20.

London. 03:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 03:05 agree, because there is no reason to sell the AUD only Profit taking the Aud has a habit of rushing higher once you have sold GT.

NYC YIPPEE 03:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 12:05 GMT May 15, 2002

This IMHO is going to be a long lasting down trend for the USD.. USD/CHF the leader of the pack.. And possibility for all those levels that currently seem impossible

melbourne farmacia 02:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Time for reflection.... another exceptional year BC.

shanghai bc 23:22 GMT July 25, 2004

Do not want to sound like a broken record..But for the whole year,buying anything below Eur/usd 1.20,Usd/Jpy 110 and Aud/Usd .70 may be as good as money in the bank..Dollar needs more than just verbal WMD from Sir Alan to head forward in any meaningful way while non-Dollar camp is not a screaming buy either at high altitude..On balance, holding Dollar on long-term basis means one has to believe mountains of Dollar debts will disappear one sunny day by a miracle of faith..Move of 400 pips in a week may be a tidal wave for day-traders,but nothing more than frequent market noises to real money folks in a skinny summer market..

SanFrancisco TG 02:43 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Original idea posted around 3210.

SanFrancisco TG 02:42 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
In reference to my idea from the NY session where I said ....

(SanFrancisco TG 15:59 GMT December 16, 2004
For the upside play, 3330 should meet some congestion, 3350 intermediate target, 3370 could again meet with congestion.)

I meant 3230/3250/3270 (was very busy). Here we are in the 3250 zone. This is where it gets a little tricky with eyes on 3270. Although showing very moderate signs of hesitancy to continue up I have it still bid at the moment. Probabilities are that at least a temporary shift of parameters has transpired to a range below 3300 and see considerable pressure to perform if we approach 3360 at some point. Lots of qualified people have the Euro upside due for another run up looking forward and I'm not discounting it either, but thats medium term.

Syd 02:32 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Australia Police: Have Foiled Terror Attacks In Indonesia
SYDNEY (AP)--Australian police and intelligence agents have helped foil a number of terror attacks in neighboring Indonesia, the country's top police officer said Friday.

gold coast martin 02:28 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:05 GMT December 17, 2004
Welcome to my side of the fence.......g/t

Sydney EM 02:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th Telstra to Cut Middle-Management Jobs as Government Readies to Sell Stake

All guns at the ready !!

Sydney ACC 02:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Just an old cuddly bear.

Ltn th 02:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Telstra to Cut Middle-Management Jobs as Government Readies to Sell Stake

All guns at the ready !!

Sydney EM 02:16 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain as Coal Price Doubles
Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar headed for its first weekly gain in three amid optimism gains in the price of coal, the country's biggest export, will trigger increased demand for the local currency to buy the fuel.

Australia is the world's largest producer of coal. Japanese steelmakers agreed this week to pay more than twice as much for a metric ton of coking coal in 2005-2006 than it currently does to Melbourne-based BHP Billiton
This is a very large increase in the price of Australia's single largest export,'' said Alex Schuman, manager of foreign- exchange strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``This provides another reason to expect the currency to rise over the coming six months''

The Australian dollar bought 75.96 U.S. cents at 12:47 p.m. in Sydney from 74.7 cents a week ago. The currency fell 0.5 percent from yesterday after the U.S. current account grew less than many economists forecast in the third quarter.

The Australian dollar will rise to 80 cents by the end of the first quarter and 82 cents by the middle of next year, said Schuman. Commonwealth Bank is the nation's second-biggest lender
LINK

Ltn th 02:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM. Interesting. Thanks. I cant help wondering if the marketing side of Telstra divorced from basic infrastructure obligations would be a far more attractive proposition, particularly as technology changes. After all, the name of the game is public risk and private profit.

Syd 02:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Japanese bank trader say that USD/JPY may be positioned for sharp move down to 104 during Asian session as few stop-loss triggers, options barriers in market; strong Nikkei Stock Average, now +1.79%, makes it easier to bid JPY many stop-losses were wiped out overnight and some exporters are interested in selling the dollar, so there is potential for yen strength,"

Sydney EM 02:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th Now they will have total control in the House (Liberals) any of the issues relating to the sale of Telstra will be done behind close doors , their objective is to get it sold
and to lay the thing to rest.

Ldn 01:58 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Turmoil at Fannie, how it may affect $8 trillion U.S. mortgage market, is hot topic for mortgage lenders: Experts tip little short-term harm to lenders' ability to originate mortgages, move them off books into securitization market; but SEC ruling raises concerns for big mortgage lenders, along with prospect of benefits to Fannie rivals. "Fannie and Freddie underpin the whole mortgage market. To the extent there is a risk, that isn't a good thing for mortgage lenders

reuters.

Ltn th 01:57 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney EM. How do you seee chances of a split between marketing and basic infrastructure being revisited. The Powers that be were indecently quick to deny this before the elections but moves and results since then say the opposite?

Syd 01:56 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Gold strong in Asia, buying by Japanese dealers/public, physical players around region, traders say ,physical buying a case of bargain hunting. Ellison Chu at Standard Bk London in HK says physical sector buying prevalent of late on dips toward $435-$436, where yellow metal bottomed overnight. Initial resistance $440

Sydney EM 01:51 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC Telstra float will be one of the largest floats ever $30bln and the Government are now trying to find ways of doing it all at once - could be next year

PA MTD 01:44 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
can anyone give me some insight on their prediction between the Daily and 8hr chart on the EURUSD? 25 SMA. Thanks.

Syd 01:41 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Actually the high aussie is a blessing it keeps rates low and helps the housing market rebound.

Syd 01:39 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC sounds like you got a few shorts mate in the wrong place - Ask Shanghai Bc about the Aud and its Commodities that only a couple of other countries in the world own

lj gmc 01:29 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   

Gold opens up in Asia, palladium hits 16-month low


* Gold rose in early trading on Friday, tracking a slight
rebound in the euro against the U.S. dollar. Gold may try to
regain $440 but weakness in Tokyo gold futures would limit gains.


Ltn th 01:29 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:05 GMT . Thank you for your valued comments. To put another perspective on the points you raise.
1&2. The bullishness in property and housing was a worry and constrained conditions to economic growth. Now these have moderated excessive tightening is no longer mandated.
3&4. The key word is value rather than volume. In such a situation then higher AUDUSD is usefull.
5,6&7. ??
7. Effective wasnt he. ABARE is remarkably good with their modelling.
8. I thought that these were contra indicators?
9. AGREED!

PA MTD 01:28 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
i've been playing the eur/usd bounces for the past hour or so. I'm up to .5 units, at an average of 1.3249. hoping it keeps going up. (DEMO account-and also I'm new to take any profit I can get)

wellington am 01:20 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:05 GMT December 17, 2004
ACC, just post a contrary view - not to say you could be right, all good points.

As for your first 5 points, these are true of pretty much most Western Democracys - NZ, UK, US even. So what will the ozzy be bearish against?

China ? who knows. The Olympics are coming up.
Japan ? does a basket always stay a basket?

The recent sell off was partly due to the RBA selling some 7 billion odd, and a whole lot of Asian selling. Now the selling's done ...

I don't know mate - except to say I'm long ozzy/kiwi and getting impatient. GL/GT.


lj gmc 01:20 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
*Australian dollar just short of 76 U.S. cents at midday
after falling about one cent offshore.
*U.S. dollar posted a relief rally after the U.S. current
account widened only slightly in the third quarter to $164.71
billion, below forecasts centred on a $170 billion gap.
*Other U.S. data also lent support to the USD with a jump in
business activity and jobless claims falling at their fastest
pace since December 2001.
*Aussie struggling after touching a high for the week of
76.70 cents, off a six-week low of 74.42 cents hit last week.
*Bond futures retreated by noon, led lower by U.S.
Treasuries, after strong U.S. economic numbers drew attention to
high and perhaps unsustainable price levels on bond markets.
*Australia's three-year contract peaked at 95.12 on Dec. 9,
when speculation about an interest rate cut was at its height,
but key support is now seen around 94.96-94.97 with the central
bank expected to make no change to rates throughout 2005.
*There is no major economic data due in Australia on Friday.
*Federal government's mid-year budget review to be released
next week, updating forecasts issued in May. The review will
include forecasts of the underlying budget surplus, economic
growth, inflation and the current account position for 2004/05
and 2005/06. The date of its release has not yet been announced

eire mick zorro 01:19 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
up the EURO

PA MTD 01:15 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   


I'm not familiar with the AUS at all. In fact, the demo account I use doesn't even have the EUR/AUS. But on AUS/USD there seems to be room for a runup around 100pips, given that it can break that .618.

I'd just like to note also, that I'm not that experienced with fx, but I have been learning alot the past few days being on this forum. thx.

wellington am 01:10 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 01:07 GMT December 17, 2004
I've not familiar with trading eur/aud, but use a 20 period MA on the ozzy/usd chart. Welcome your thoughts on this pair.

Chicago YM 01:09 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   

PA MTD 01:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
wellington, may I ask, are you using a moving average? And if so, SMA/EMA and what time period? thx.

Sydney ACC 01:05 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
AUD may be setting up a huge trap for the bulls.
1. The property market is declining at accelerating rate.
2. The building industry is declining.
3. The value of manufactured exports is declining.
4. Imports are increasing.
5. It is becoming increasing uncertain whether China will have a soft landing next year.
6. Japan, well Japan is abasket case.
7. Costello warned yesterday about economic conditions next year - refer http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Economy-off-the-boil-as-record-deficit-looms/2004/12/16/1102787217936.html
8. Look at the yield curve - Ban Bill Futures are 5.32% for the whole of next year. Thats only seven cents above the cash rate. The 3 year bond contract is 5% 25 cents below the cash rate. The Aussie market is still factoring in a cut, although now only slightly, while the US is factoring in increases. By the end of next year the Fed Funds rate will be 3.5% so the offer rate will be 3.75% compared to the cash rate of 5.25% or maybe, just maybe 5% or 4.75%.
9. Beware as always teh AUD goes up the stairs and takes the elevator on the way down. Sometimes it doesnt wait for the elevator.

dc fxq 01:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
singapore 00:31 GMT

wrote Colin Asher, an economist at Nomura in London,


yes, I am quite sure he has excellent vontcts in the MoF and BoJ who confide in him regularly

wellington am 01:04 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
PA MTD 01:01 GMT December 17, 2004
Thanks. I've got entry points 1.75 and 1.7550. Hope i get picked up. GL/GT.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:03 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:53 GMT December 16, 2004
EUR/USD : Projected barriers from my 3-month projection profiles :-


... // {1.3067} - 1.3157 - 1.3179 - 1.3214 - 1.3230 - 1.3253 - 1.3294 - 1.3328 // ...

PA MTD 01:01 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
I think i'm getting confused with your sentences that don't have punctuation..no offense. It can be read different ways if you think about it hard enough, that is why I didn't understand where your retrace points were. But overall, that looks like a good play

wellington am 00:57 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
1.6520 -> 1.7650 21-Nov to 21-Dec or there abouts

PA MTD 00:55 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
may I ask what points you used for the retracement?

wellington am 00:50 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
sorry, to enlighten further - there's a positive carry trade, there's strong bearish divergence on the 4 hourly chart, and even 0.38 fibo from the move up from 1.6580 will give over 200 pips. welcome a critique

wellington am 00:40 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
hmmm, i haven't been paying attention. checkout EUR/AUD time to sell euros and buy ozzys (imvho).

Syd 00:37 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Telstra to drive sale process
TELSTRA'S increasingly bold board is expected to break with tradition and appoint its own investment banking advisers for the looming $30 billion full privatisation of the company.
HS.

London. 00:13 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Traders noted various negative rumors during EUR/USD's fall last night, including Fed preparing EUR-selling intervention and ECB checking rates - but these rumors almost certainly false, few paying them much attention. Basic reason for EUR/USD pull-back appears to be view that options positions at 1.35 will be defended strongly and this defense unlikely to break before new year.

dc fxq 00:07 GMT December 17, 2004 Reply   
Let me be the prophet here:

its trading symbol on the NYSE is FNM.

Bernstein is another pseudo-economist! take that Livingston nh!

 




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