Forex Forum Archive for 12/19/2004

London. 23:54 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja agree, could mean a sharp pull back .
Would like Van Gecko view re: continued dollar rally.

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:52 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
London. 23:50 GMT December 19, 2004
Thanks very much, seems market still has some longs there, interestingly it is still very well bid

London. 23:50 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja sorry below aud

London. 23:49 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
12/14/04 week 12/07/04 week
Long 29,627 35,652
Short 66 1,409
Net 29,561 34,243

Syd 23:47 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Centro Agrees To Buy US$1.2B US REIT

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:39 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
London. 23:37 GMT December 19, 2004
what was the position for AUD may I ask please?

London. 23:37 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
JPY long non-commercial positions vs USD down to 21,401 contracts in week to Dec. 14 vs 37,323 contracts in week earlier, showing specs unwinding JPY long bets to lock in profits before closing financial books at year end

Syd 23:27 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   

Ltn Th.. we will also be seeing Costello giving his Midyear economic review later in the week for Aus, and talk is that they will revise down their 04/05 to 3.25% or 3%
from around 3.5% FWIW

Syd 23:07 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th we should be seeing a correction into the end of the year for the Dollar however the IFO on friday curtailed this . I agree, Dollar will be heading lower into next year , however feel that this time of the year intervention would be too easy to sway the market and cant see anyone in their right mind wanting to take on the CBs and wipe out any profit . therefore rally of the Dollar to under 132.00 euro is more than feasible , GBP is a different animal . Also a double top looks in for Euro !!

Ltn th 23:02 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Syd. Pardon my asking but have you written some serious USD calls recently. Whilst the l/t and m/t prognosis is not good the USD may get some terporary relief courtesy of Her Majesty. It is questionable that this will be able to head off a looming -ve yield curve.

Halifax CB 23:01 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Notice there's some fairly $-bukkish news floating around today; here's another, the COTS chart for the EUR. The others available on the site (see the bottom of the page) are also worth a look. GL this week...

Syd 22:47 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
The growth trends should offer some dollar support, especially as there is the potential for a further widening of interest rate differentials in the dollar's favour.

Syd 22:42 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
N.Z. Dollar May Drop Amid Speculation Economic Growth Slowing
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar may decline amid speculation a government report this week will show the pace of gross domestic product growth is slowing.

Manufacturing fell for the first time in five quarters in the three months ended Sept. 30, exports, which account for a third of the $79 billion economy, fell in the same period, and home building dropped, government reports this month showed, signaling a decline in gross domestic product.

``There are downside risks to the GDP number, so there will be downside risks to the New Zealand dollar,'' said Sue Trinh, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington.

The New Zealand currency bought 71.39 U.S. cents at 8:02 a.m. in Wellington compared with 71.38 cents in late New York trading on Dec. 17. It has dropped 1.8 percent from a 16-year high of 72.68 cents on Dec. 6.

New Zealand's economic growth rate probably slowed in the third quarter to 0.6 percent from 0.9 percent in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due on Dec. 22.

Ldn ;-) 22:18 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
US Data Week Ahead
Economists expect new orders for durable goods to show a modest rebound in November. estimates center on a 0.6% increase
GDP estimates focus on a 3.9% annual rate of increase for GDP and a 1.3% rate of increase for the chain-weighted price index.
Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, is expected to have improved further in late December, estimates an increase to 95.8, marginally above the preliminary December reading of 95.7, but well above the final November reading of 92.8.

Syd 22:06 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Major dealers will be closed Friday ahead of Saturday's Christmas holiday. With little significant economic data set for release and with many traders and strategists out for the holidays, market activity will be limited to year-end position squaring and a trickle of corporate transactions.
"Liquidity in the market is getting very poor as we head into the holidays," said Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. Elmer said that thin market conditions could exacerbate the effect of trading on prices, making for choppy, unpredictable movements. Still, "there's little likelihood that the market will actually move significantly before the new year," he added. Elmer and others say that the risks are skewed for a bit more dollar strengthening this week as traders holding short-dollar positions that have appreciated in recent months take profits.
"We can't rule out a further mild upside correction for the dollar ahead of year-end, particularly given investors apparent appetite to lock in profits on short positions," said Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London.
DJ

Sydney EM 21:57 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Any one remember who said , "what ever the move on open Monday morning the ccy's would go the opposit way the rest of the week ", recall the being said several years ago , but dont recall who said it.

Syd 21:47 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP
Actually this could be a market mover this week on Sterling
Euronext 'poised to make LSE bid'
LINK

GOES B747 21:47 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 21:42 GMT // good evening, just was busy with search for trades for the next week (i.e. the next 5 trading sessions).

EUR/GBP: it is a short until 0.6690 (at least!) during the next week; 0.6880/90 is SAR for 0.7090/7100

the a.m. is imo and fwiw ... :)

gt

Mtl JP 21:42 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:06 / the piece says nothing of GBP however saw postions rise. Hmm..

Any eurgbp trade ideas ?

Syd 21:16 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Posted it on Political Forum also in full incase problem opening

Syd 21:14 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Something to keep an eye on with China !!

China's Army May Respond if Taiwan Fully SecedesLINKChina's top leaders have said consistently that they would wage war against Taiwan if it were to declare itself an independent state, so the passage of such a law basically reiterates existing policy.

Syd 21:06 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Futures Traders Reverse Bets, Expect Euro Decline Vs Dollar
link

LA fxnew 21:01 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
gbp gap up 30 pips for a reason???

Syd 21:00 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Don't write off the dollar
However, several leading brokerages believe sterling is near its peak. John Norman of JP Morgan in London and Yianos Kontopoulos at Merrill Lynch see the pound respectively at $1.86 and $1.79 by the end of 2005. “The dollar has been oversold on both a medium and long-term term basis,” says Philip Roth, chief technical analyst at brokers Miller Tabak in New York. “However, being oversold doesn't mean the downtrend is over.” For that to occur, Roth says that the market will demonstrate increased price volatility, where intraday spreads will increase from one to two cents to four to five cents, coupled with more frequent rallies. “That's usually an indication that the market is forming a base,” Roth explains. Less than three years ago the euro was trading at $0.83. Only a few shrewd analysts and money managers were suggesting then that US-based investors should start shifting dollars into a currency that had showed no ability to sustain its value since its inception in 1999. Just as with the dollar today, analysts attributed the euro's collapse to structural deficiencies in the eurozone which made it a less desirable place to buy assets than the US

Juneau CAR 20:57 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Halifax: I am always amused when people put forth laissez-faire theory, take a swipe at the NY Times, but somehow never seen to mention other by products of laissez-faire like child sweat shops or the tyranny big business lorded over people for much of the early part of this century.

The truth is, PURE laissez -faire theory is socio pathic in its nature; society has to fine tune it, humanize it and regulate it.

The dollar is falling for different reasons now than during Reagan's era. Our twin deficits are being caused by irresponsible economic policies and comparing the the 80's to the present is like comparing apples and oranges.

Peterson, Krugman and Rubin agree with me on this.

Halifax you get Laffer, O'neil and Snow-grin.

Happy Holidays.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:27 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Halifax CB 15:56 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay - a good article, but one of the first paragraphs says it all

"In 1985, President Ronald Reagan managed to avert a storm. When he started his second term, a large budget deficit and high interest rates were fueling a relentless climb in the dollar, opening a huge gap in the trade balance. Yet by 1989 the dollar had fallen 50 percent against the Japanese yen and more than 40 percent against the West German mark, without prompting runaway inflation. And the current account deficit - the broad gap between exports and imports of goods and services - had finally begun to close. "

That's what's happening again, without extensive government interference; the dollar is falling, the CA gap if not yet falling (& look at the time frames in the Reagan era - these things take awhile) is at least braking; and as far as potential runs on the dollar - while it's probably useful to bear in mind gloom & doom scenarios, I don't think worrying about "The Day after Tomorrow" scenarios re. currencies is too productive (unless one happens to be a journalist, or a fan of big government, like the NYTimes is..). Here's to laissez-faire government....

GVI Jay 15:35 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
This article from the Sunday NYT business section is suggested reading, especially for those with little knowledge of the history of the forex market.

Whoops! It's 1985 All Over Again (NYT) LINK

GOES B747 15:06 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Baikal = the old good soviet guardia :)
price agreed @ $9.3B ... somehow, we will never get prove for actual payment ... follow/invastigate deeply this story and you will learn how BILLIONS can go into the deepest pockets.

actually, this is very bad news for the people invested money in Russia ... eat the rich ... lol

gt all

GOES B747 15:01 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
Baikal Finance Group = YUKOS

GVI john 13:12 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   

CALENDAR MONDAY, December 20, 2004 AUS- Mid-Year Budget Review 07:00 GMT- GER- Nov Producer Prices (date approx): vs. +0.9% in Oct GER- Dec preliminary CPI (date approx): vs. +0.4%, +1.8% y/y Nov 13:30 GMT- October Wholesale Trade 13:30 GMT- US- Nov lead Indicators: vs. -0.3% in Oct, see -0.2% TUESDAY, December 21, 2004 JPN- Monthly Economic Report 13:30 GMT- CDA- November Leading Indicators 13:30 GMT- CDA- October Retail Sales WEDNESDAY, December 22, 2004 04:00 GMT- JPN- 2-year JGB Auction 23:50 GMT- JPN- Tertiary Activity Index 07:50 GMT- FRA- Nov final CPI: vs. preliminary 0.0%, +2.0% y/y 09:30 GMT- UK- Minutes from Dec 8-9 BOE MPC meeting 12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index 13:30 GMT- US- 3Q04 GDP: vs. preliminary +3.9%, see +3.9% 15:30 GMT- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys THURSDAY, December 23, 2004 JPN- Holiday- Emperors Birthday 09:30 GMT- UK- 3Q04 current account: vs. -GBP6.4 bln in 2Q04 13:30 GMT- CDA- October GDP 13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims: 13:30 GMT- US- Nov Personal Income: vs. +0.6% in Oct, see +0.3% 13:30 GMT- US- Nov Personal Consumption Exp: vs. +0.7% in Oct, see +0.2% 13:30 GMT- US- Nov Durable Goods Orders: vs. -1.1% in Oct 13:45 GMT- US- Dec U.of Mich Cons Sent: vs. 95.7 in early-Dec, see 95.4 15:00 GMT- US- Nov New Home Sales: vs. 1.226mln units, see 1.2mln US markets close early for the Christmas holiday FRIDAY, December 24, 2004 23:50 GMT- JPN- Trade/Current Account data AUS- Half-day session U.S. and European markets close for Christmas

Hong Kong Qindex 10:49 GMT December 19, 2004 Reply   
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