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Forex Forum Archive for 12/20/2004

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Ldn 23:36 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Exaggerated Christmas effect of Japan exporter selling in EUR/JPY could risk Euro falling to 1.332 support in Asia according to Senior Japan dealer.

Syd 23:20 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
CNBC live squawkbox at the moment economists , saying C/A deficit in Australia poses a risk especially if there is a slow down in China , see 05 retail sales lower , say australian dollar having an effect on exports and its overvalued at present levels.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 23:18 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Doing this for a while

Curren Short Long Short _Stop Long_Stop TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3409 1.3362 1.3447 1.3318 Hold Hold
USDJPY 104.31 103.91 104.68 103.56 Sell Hold
GBPUSD 1.9480 1.9406 1.9538 1.9344 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1517 1.1468 1.1561 1.1429 Hold Hold
EURCHF 1.5397 1.5368 1.5418 1.5347 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7651 0.7615 0.7680 0.7581 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2321 1.2271 1.2373 1.2231 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7179 0.7142 0.7215 0.7108 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6892 0.6874 0.6904 0.6863 Hold Hold
EURJPY 139.60 139.18 139.91 138.89 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 202.82 202.14 203.36 201.66 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.72 90.39 90.95 90.18 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2379 2.2310 2.2430 2.2263 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7563 1.7492 1.7621 1.7444 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6492 1.6422 1.6552 1.6374 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9406 0.9356 0.9441 0.9320 Hold Buy
AUDJPY 79.66 79.28 79.90 78.99 Hold Hold

SAIHAT No_one_will_escape 23:17 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   

0.7698 0.7689 R4
0.7678 0.7674 R3
0.7666 0.7664 R2
0.7663 0.7662 R1

AUD
0.7637 0.7636
0.7638 0.7634

0.7613 0.7612 S1
0.7610 0.7609 S2
0.7598 0.7594 S3
0.7578 0.7569 S4

Sydney E.M 23:17 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
NZD down sharply from 0.7164 to 0.7127 after NZ's annual current account deficit widens to worse-than-expected 5.8% of GDP in 3Q Sellers have just come out in strength after that data, the risks are that we might fall further
ANZ Bank

Syd 22:35 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja if thats the case surely it should be in the around 1.70 area or under

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Syd 22:26 GMT December 20, 2004

unless everyone has gone long aud/eur??

I would be encouraged in my bearish view for aud if it breaks and holds below 0.7575 then I look for 0.7300-50

GL n GT

Ltn th 22:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Short AUD seems very courageous at present. Extreme volatility is probability for a number of reasons that may or may not be apparent to market. Worth looking at daily EURAUD over past 12 mo or so.

Syd 22:26 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja I am a little suprise by the IMM aud positions , considering the Euro now and yes the Aussie is around 6% of GDP also-

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
12/14/04 week 12/07/04 week
Long 29,627 35,652
Short 66 1,409
Net 29,561 34,243

Sydney ACC 22:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja 22:04 GMT December 20, 2004
And with the RBA an aggressive seller as well!

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:08 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
And while we are at it have a look at the 20 and 50 day moving averages for AUD, look to me like they are turning down for first time since 1 October

sydney gvm 22:05 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips

mate a newbie would be bankrupt if he listened/acted on the stuff you say...your comments yesterday re: collapse of the euro, said in such a convincing manner - were absolute rubbish ["euro WILL collapse in 2 hours"]

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:04 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Syd 21:47 GMT December 20, 2004

And what was Australia's 6.6%?? Its hard to see AUD n NZD joining the USD bashing party in the New Year (if there is actually one)

Sydney 21:58 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD (1.3379)
by J.P. Chorek
12/20/2004

Syd 21:47 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
NZ's FY Curr Acct Deficit 5.8% Of GDP; Consensus 5.1%

Halifax CB 21:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
mexico cl you could try this link for brent; if you need others try a google search on something like "crude oil historical prices" . GL.

Sydney 20:57 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Real money account sales, weigh on Aud

mexico CL 20:01 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
somebody can help me with the historical prices of crude oil?

SanFrancisco TG 20:00 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
I am hoping we are seeing one more little prod at the 3400 figure right now to clear the way for short Euro running the track without too much incentive for bulls to think they have enoiugh to work with.

Syd 19:52 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
CAD is bound to weaken in coming weeks as Canadian exports deteriorate on earlier CAD strength , recommends sell the C$ on its strong days, as it will cheapen up if, as we expect, the trade hit continues. CIBC forecasting USD C$1.2250 in 1Q and C$1.3000 in 4Q of 2005.

CIBC World Markets report.

Ldn 19:33 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Fed official warned that faster rate hikes might be needed if productivity growth slowed.

When the USD rate reaches 2.75% or higher Euro/Dlr wont be classed as carry trade, infact it isnt now- will be harder for specs to hold in large quantity

perrie como 18:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Also the vote settled for xmas to decide upon an Turkey european membership, might pose serius qeustions about the eu stability.

regards

g/l

perrie como 18:26 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Maybe you know It already, however the the currency futures pit on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange showed that speculators had shifted their net long euro positions to net short positions for the first time in three years.

SanFrancisco TG 18:21 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp - Thanks, but I am not short Euro yet. :)

Dallas GEP 18:13 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Yes I am CABA, that is still good IMO, although it did go longer than I anticipated because of the level that EUR/USD is at but I STILL think GBP is more bullish than euro

Philadelphia Caba 18:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:07 GMT December 20, 2004

GEP, r'u still in eurgbp short?

Dallas GEP 18:07 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Well eur/jpy shorts took my trailing stop @ 139.38 a little earlier so I an out on the second half of those shorts at +20. Usd/jpy longs still in play

spore dr 17:33 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
hi

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Yen shorting at 104.23 104.34 and 0.45

Antwerp Tom 17:27 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
TG 17:04 GMT nice call

Jakarta r4v3n 17:23 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain within 10 pips.... will take a look...tia

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:13 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Jakarta/
My Orders if U wanna take a look
http://www.geocities.com/kalzayani/MyOrders.htm

London NR 17:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Right click, view image?

Jakarta r4v3n 17:04 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain within 10 pips.... good call on the chf

SanFrancisco TG 17:04 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Ok I finally have my first indications of Euro bids running out of insentive. Not a "signal" of any sort, only a heads up near the projected 3380.

OK SZ 17:03 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 16:52 GMT December 20, 2004
OK SZ 16:51
Install Adobe Acrobat reader

I have 6.0 downloaded but that still x still comes up

NJ RT 16:52 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 16:51
Install Adobe Acrobat reader

OK SZ 16:51 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
ok any computer experts who can help me with a small problem. I am trying to open a pdf file but when I click on the link there is only a small box with a red x in the middle of it. can anyone tell me what the problem is? appreciate it

SanFrancisco TG 16:36 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Euronext is in the bidding conflict for the London Stock Exchange. Do not let it happen, you will be sorry.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:55 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
chf should go up I think

PAR 15:39 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Expectations of higher than expected UK house prices and still higher UK interest rates are supporting GBP.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:36 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
These could be used if in a harry to go into something

EURUSD 1.3407 1.3350 Hold Hold
USDJPY 104.3474 103.8575 Sell Hold
GBPUSD 1.9513 1.9424 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1530 1.1471 Hold Buy
EURCHF 1.5402 1.5369 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7655 0.7612 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2310 1.2251 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7194 0.7150 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6881 0.6861 Hold Hold
EURJPY 139.5714 139.0763 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.1249 202.3240 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.6844 90.3118 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2427 2.2347 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7560 1.7477 Hold Hold
EURCAD 1.6472 1.6389 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9399 0.9342 Hold Buy
AUDJPY 79.6735 79.2424 Hold Hold

Van jv 15:34 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
not much noticed
A key gauge of future U.S. economic growth turned higher in November, beating predictions and ending five months of declines.

For the month, the Conference Board's index of leading indicators advanced by 0.2 per cent, following a 0.4-per-cent decline in October.

Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
103.95 long on usd/jpy...15 pip stop

HK Kevin 15:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY below 139.10 could see 138.77

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:07 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Any comments anyone one?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:02 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Next 5 hours Levels

Currency Short Long TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3450 1.3300 Hold Hold
USDJPY 104.7650 103.4807 Sell Hold
GBPUSD 1.9576 1.9353 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1582 1.1428 Hold Buy
EURCHF 1.5426 1.5346 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7687 0.7574 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2369 1.2207 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7232 0.7112 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6894 0.6848 Hold Hold
EURJPY 139.9069 138.7638 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 203.7155 201.8017 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.9365 90.0709 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2484 2.2295 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7625 1.7424 Hold Hold
EURCAD 1.6538 1.6336 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9438 0.9302 Hold Buy
AUDJPY 79.9411 78.9280 Hold Hold

GOES B747 14:45 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:38 GMT // perfect, cheers mate!!!

gt @ cruise control

Hong Kong Qindex 14:41 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:40 GMT December 20, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.3115* - 1.3145 - 1.3176* // 1.3207 - 1.3238* - 1.3269 - 1.3300* - 1.3331 - 1.3362* - 1.3393 // 1.3420* ...

Tallinn viies 14:39 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:31 GMT -yep, same here. at least 1,35 if not 1,45

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:38 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Of course this is only speculation folks and as we know very well we can all be correct. It all depends on the time frame used and style of trading.

GOES B747 14:20 GMT December 20, 2004
With pips in the bag and stop at entry point I have this one on cruise control from now on. I just need a good bottle of cognac to snuggle by the fire and let the festivities begin. No hurries mate ;-)

Atl TJ 14:24 GMT December 20, 2004
Ready to close the books for the year so it would be nice for this pair (eur/usd) to at least test the upper triangle early this week.

Dallas GEP 14:34 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
HAve lowered trailing stop on eur/jpy shorts to 139.38 to protect +20 pips on the second half of the eur/jpy short possie from 139.58

Hong Kong Qindex 14:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:31 GMT December 20, 2004
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels


... 1.9187* ... // 1.9251* - 1.9283 - 1.9315* - 1.9347 - 1.9378* - 1.9410 - 1.9441* - 1.9473 - 1.9504* // ... 1.9567* ...

HK Kevin 14:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi! Tallinn viies 14:14 GMT . For my long term view on EUR. I still think the pair has a leg to up to aroud 1.3530/50, may be in Jan before the actual correction.

Tallinn viies 14:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:22 GMT - aaa okay, just looked on the weekly euryen chart - move from 90 to 140 doesnt look like a down bias. personally I think more like up bias toward 155,00

NYC 14:30 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Pres Bush to hold a press conference at 15:30gmt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:28 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold has rallied from support 430-31 and is bullish last price at 442.80. Eur/jpy has hit a snag on the way and will trying to test the support (138.90-139.10). Overall bias on this pair is bullish with indicators bearish on a correction pattern at the moment. Support T/L (136.90-137) will be a good test for the bears on this pair IMHO. GL GT

Atl TJ 14:26 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
then = thin
I need more coffee

Atl TJ 14:24 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL
My stuff is predicting EURO 1.3410-30 should be the top for this leg. Then a down leg will follow. My numbers for the down leg are are not firm but looking in the 1.3340-60 area maybe by NY close. But with the markets being then WTF knows.

HK Kevin 14:22 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:14 GMT, I am trading this pair for short term only. Looking at the daily chart, it's still bullish unless cloase below 137.80. For short term, I see a consolidation between 138.80 and 139.60 before turning downside to test 138.00 level. My strategy is to take profit near 139 and sell again near 139.50 for today and tomorrow.

GOES B747 14:20 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:18 GMT // you got 40mins to arrange the print :)

gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:18 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Interesting contrast of emotions here in the FF and as we speak eur/usd pair is testing resistance (3400) with next T/L and resistance coming up around the (3430-40) area. I am still looking for 3400-10 to print on this bullish run. GL GT

Tallinn viies 14:14 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:57 GMT - how do you see euryen down bias?
I see it exactly opposite way :)

gold coast martin 14:10 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW..May be an examination of the CAD trading pattern will reveal the behaviour of the euro for the next week ...g/t

ny amc 14:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 14:01 GMT December 20, 2004 where is the easiest and best place to find that type of info

London Alex 14:03 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin - You tell me because I do believe we are up again today despite those biases...

Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Took half eur/jpy short out at profit @ 139.30 (+28) Put stop at BE on REST of eur/jpy shorts at 139.58 to see if we can get sub 139

Hong Kong Qindex 13:59 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

shanghai bc 13:58 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   

Blissful ignorance for the last three decades ..

HK Kevin 13:57 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 13:48 GMT, how could EUR rally when both EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP are downbias?

HK Kevin 13:57 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 13:48 GMT, how could EUR rally when both EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP are downbias?

London Alex 13:48 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Sydney. Shanghai, I disagree. My experience these past few year shows that tops are usually accompanied by record spec positions in the direction of the top. In this case, specs have been reducing euro longs for 4 weeks in a row now (is this right), and yet euro has gone up several cents during that time. IMM's therefore still serve as a proxy for the broader spec move.

Another thing to keep in mind is that 1-15 January has been an up period for euro since 2000. Each year thereafter euro has come up during those first two weeks. So there is some seasonality that is clearly demonstrable

Finally, what Hong Kong is speaking of hits it spot on. Real money is not only "thinking" about fleeing the dollar, they ARE doing it as we have been speaking these past 2 months. I'm not sure if a dollar crisis will happen in 2005, because the Homeland investment act could support dollar if it really starts to melt down, but still. I would be very very careful if the market defies the specs, because it's always a sign of real money...

riyadh Ismael 13:48 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Minneapolis Hi doubble mACD let see if this negative divergence will prove us wrong this is always 100 % accurate it mean sell when there is negative divergence and also COT short the euro this is the 1st in 3yr they extremely shot the euro look out guys

Hong Kong Phooey 13:42 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Spelled capitulation wrong. My point is that probably the pros will be buying dollars as the man on the street sells sells sells...

Hong Kong Phooey 13:38 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
In the last week I have had people asking me if they should "get out" of dollars. These people included;

1. A high net worth, primarily equities investor
2. An Asia ex-Japan fund manager
3. An american retiree in SE Asia fearing his savings/SS will be worthless
4. Several strangers in casual conversations surprised me by bringing up the "is the dollar going to crash" issue

I tell them I'm no pro, and merely a speculator, and that they should seek professional advice if they wish to hedge any exposure they have. But one thing I gather from all this is the "fear factor". They read in the paper every day, and watch seenbeesee etc. and they are afraid that the dollar will crash and want to know what to do. Is this the capitualtion phase (or soon in early January after the holidays)? Has anyone else noticed this in the last week or two people talking about "getting out of dollars". TIA

lon jr 13:35 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi par..well i know how u feel abt stg...its on i think boe's underestimated strength of stg...higher inflation, higher rates etc etc..but waiting for market to realiise govt spending will eventually be viewed like us budget deficits...sell stg at some point ..might take the new year..

dc fxq 13:34 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
PAR 13:27 GMT

just mt own opinion of course but this market has nothing to do with fundamentals or technicals at all, it just just a toy being used by leveraged accounts to run prices whereever they will go.

SanFrancisco TG 13:29 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Nobody here is talking about a yearly cycle. We're talking intra day to days for the most part. That 2.5% contained a lot of good 40 to 100 pip fluctuations. I don't even focus on that much personally.

PAR 13:27 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
With UK posting highest deficit in history do not understand GBP strength given overbougth conditions.

sydney.. 13:24 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
London Alex 13:11 GMT December 20, 2004
Simple - Specs turn short, Euro rallies XX figures, Specs flip long at rally end, Real money turns south.

shanghai bc 13:17 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   

How large is IMM spec positions anyway?..A flee on the tail of an elephant?..GVI may be a better indicator ,if market sentiment is what we want to know..

HK Kevin 13:13 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Halifax CB, if my reading in the weekly is not wrong, both EUR and EUR/JPY may have made their weekly high. But the downside of EUR will be bottomed again nearly 1.3260. Currently I am short from 1.2368 and 139.56, 30 and 50 pips stops.

Tallinn viies 13:13 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
personally I think of course we need correction on eurusd but not just yet.
this year market will not start correction, in the beginning of next year please, be my guest.

now - too complicated ....

London Alex 13:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
I don't understand why you guys are talking about finding short entry points on euro. Look at IMM data, euro is net short for first time in ages! And yet, has the euro gone down? No more than 2.5 cent at its worst point, and now its only 1 cent below its high. Isn't this a pretty clear signal that real money buying of euro is massive? How else could the euro remain so strong in the face of so much spec selling? Anyone want to explain that to me? My suggestion: hold on for the ride, because this market is going to drive for 1.39, you'll see. Look for long entry's not the other way around.

Halifax CB 12:56 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Re. Eurusd - Working off the weekly charts, I'm going to start looking at long term shorts, especially if we get above 1.3450. The initial target is 1.30 with s/l above 1.357. As the last retracements have taken several months to unfold, the daily carrying charges become significant, so the longer I can put it off, the better. maybe. OTOH, I would expect the long term uptrend to be underway again by the end of the the next quarter, though that certainly isn't carved in stone...

Minneapolis DRS2 12:55 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
I'm tempted to short EUR/USD at this point. There is MACD divergence on the 15m chart, and what appears to be a railway track reversal on the 1145UTC bar...

Philadelphia Caba 12:48 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:45 GMT December 20, 2004

Thanks GEP.

Dallas GEP 12:45 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Caba, at this point in time I would wait for a better entry short on eur/jpy

Riyadh Ismael 12:43 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Guys there was and MACD negative divergence on EURO/USD 15 min chart at 133.84 and it went down to 133.59 it has more to go MACD negative divergence is powerful also this morning positve divergence on 15min chart and it did put in a 100 pips also there was
look and see euro goes at least 50-60 pips from 133.84
remember Positive divergence = buy (plenty)
Negative divergence = sell (plenty) Just closed your eyes and pull the triger

Dallas GEP 12:42 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/gbp .6869 stop loss 15 pips. Stop loss on eur/jpy short is 140.10.

Philadelphia Caba 12:39 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Good morning everyone! GT!

Dallas GEP 12:09 GMT December 20, 2004
Shorted eur/jpy 139.58

GEP, may I ask you on your s/l? Thanks.

SanFrancisco TG 12:32 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Maybe Euro 3380 roughly is the exhaustion area (intra day) Euro has indeed been bid but its been bid since Friday NY open .. time will tell :)

Malaga boqueron 12:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747
re EUR/JPY will print below 136.50 before 31/DEC/2004 close

I'll have to assume you are either a very big player or have access to such circles to make a statement like that.

My lowly charts tell me the odds of seeing anything below 138,00 in the near future ( < 1 month ) are rather slim. Matter of fact, good odds we will not see 136,50 before 150,00.

The trade on this pair is long with S/L below 138,25

Dallas GEP 12:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/jpy 139.58

SanFrancisco TG 12:03 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Viies - You may well be correct. My idea is only bases on mathematical probability, and thus is of course not absolute. Shifts have indeed only been minor so far and overrun in the end. But as always, that too changes. :)

GOES B747 12:00 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw: EUR/JPY will print below 136.50 before 31/DEC/2004 close

gt all

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:57 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW $ weakness is not the one pushing eur/usd pair for now. It has been the eur/jpy pair that has been doing most of the work so far. While the aud/usd pair stalls around the resistance (7650) level IMHO. GL GT

Ldn 11:55 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies
gold hasnt moved so far, it normally impacts the commodity currencies , will have to see how it plays out in NY session

London 11:52 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
U.S. November Leading Indicators Index Seen Rising, Survey Says
Link
The index of leading U.S. economic indicators may have risen for the first time in six months in November, as fewer people sought unemployment benefits, economists said in advance of today's report

SanFrancisco TG 11:49 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw mach 10:35 - Just my opinion. While many participants may be effectively playing darts, the market is not most of the time. It makes moves, then little counter moves (sometimes resulting from profit taking or innacurate assessments or other circumstances) which create liquidity for continuation. The little guy often gets hit being sucked into the limited counter move which gets reversed shortly by the market. Further, prices move in boxes of distance, with smaller boxes contained within. The puzzle is determining which is which, and when.

Tallinn viies 11:45 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 11:40 GMT - I really doubt

look at the strenght at the moment. now corrections at all.
indicates clearly buyers want to buy big time

SanFrancisco TG 11:40 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
The way I see it the Euro has had 4 true bid moves since the NY open Friday. Probabilities mount for exhaustion at this stage.

Tallinn viies 11:33 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 10:46 GMT December 20 - yes I saw that headline also.
wondering how this can affect euro after all.

bc, you are the man who always has seen connection between eurusd and gold. what do you think about such headline?

jeddah jed 11:13 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
La fxt let me try your system i sent you an email

Ldn 11:03 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
The European Union Commission Monday said the euro zone's gross domestic product had grown by 0.3% in the third quarter, lower than its previous forecast of around 0.4%.
The Commission said in its quarterly report that declining business confidence will lead to "soft growth" of around 0.5% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. GDP growth was 0.7% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second. The Commission's report also said the euro's strength against the dollar, which is hurting European exports by making them more expensive for U.S., "is essentially the result" of the greenback's weakness. reuters.


Auckland NZ peat 11:00 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
re Triangle could be Terminative pattern link
ok - I re(a)d that
am i just a cynic , or did he say "if it goes lower it will go lower unless of course if it goes higher and then it will go higher."

Sydney 10:56 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Euro triangle could be a terminative pattern

Ldn 10:46 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Bundesbank Confirms Will Use Option To Sell Gold
German Fin Min says will sell 8 tons of Gold

Warsaw mach 10:35 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
If all traders are palying darts (like many do) we won't see any move.
I think traders would be inteested to buy euro at the beginning of each sesion before they start the darts championships.

Stuttgart HW 10:29 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
If were not below 13330 between 1-2 than thats not going to change anything!

innsbruck KM 10:27 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
[email protected]

Hong Kong Qindex 10:23 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is not good when the market is retreating from 1.9466.

zurich mik 10:20 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
klaus, yes. please pass me your email adress through jay at [email protected]

Tallinn viies 10:19 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
innsbruck KM 10:09 GMT - long long.
14 days money back qurantee.

innsbruck KM 10:13 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
zürich ????

Hong Kong Qindex 10:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

innsbruck KM 10:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
has anybocy an idea for eur/usd ? long or short ?

Helsinki iw 10:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Nicht mehr brief ! Only english allowed on the forum Innsbruck, at least so I´m told.

zurich mik 10:08 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
klaus? na, nit wirklich..wie gehts?

innsbruck KM 10:04 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
is anybody here who want speak in german about forex-markets ?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:57 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Negative if the market is trading below 1.9466.


... // {1.9466} - 1.9505 - 1.9543 // ...

Dallas Fundamental Trader 09:55 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GBPUSD approaching historic levels again.

Ldn 09:53 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
The U.K.'s total net debt has now reached GBP401.9 billion, its highest ever level, and the first time it has tipped over GBP400 billion. Public sector net debt stood at 33.9% of gross domestic product, compared with a full-year target of 34.4%.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/

Hong Kong Qindex 09:49 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Stuttgart HW 09:24 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Excuse me for that, this seems to be because of my connection I have no Idea why I always double post.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:24 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Stuttgart HW 09:23 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Collected long AUDUSD @ market +43
Collected short USDCHF @ market +40


In for EURUSD awaiting 1.3460 SL @1.3325

Stuttgart HW 09:23 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Collected long AUDUSD @ market +43
Collected short USDCHF @ market +40


In for EURUSD awaiting 1.3460 SL @1.3325

Stuttgart HW 09:23 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Collected long AUDUSD @ market +43
Collected short USDCHF @ market +40


In for EURUSD awaiting 1.3460 SL @1.3325

Gen dk 09:19 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK JR 09:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
la fxt , do you agree to pay me back 35% of my losses as well ?

Ldn 09:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Large 0.7625 Strike Expires Today

Milan LM 09:08 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
la fxt 09:06 GMT December 20, 2004

get lost!!!

la fxt 09:06 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
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GOES B747 09:06 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Stuttgart HW 08:16 GMT // good one, hats off; you did it just on time for the cold wave startted, I guess home is warmer now :)

gt

Tallinn viies 08:29 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
those days like today I call "trading with closed eyes".
it is clearly surely in one way....
personally Im long close to 1,32sh.
now if you dont have position I suggest to buy at 1,3340/50 and stop at 1,3290 (although I see this area also as a buying area.)

Hong Kong Qindex 08:18 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:17 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Looking for eur/usd pair to print 3400-10 area before the bulls get through with this pair. A close above the 3380 resistance for the bulls today and they will have control once again IMHO.

Stuttgart HW 08:16 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
First one for the day, out EURUSD @ 1.3352 took home 100 pips from friday.

Tallinn viies 08:12 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
we have entered to the final game of the year.
to make money big time we dont need to do anything - just to keep our long euro positions.
to maximize profits I sold euro puts under 1,3130.
better would be sell no touch under 1,3130.
target 1,35000 at least.
cu there and have a profitable last 2 weeks

Sydney E.M. 07:58 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Grenade found near Hilton Hotel in Jakarta, days after foreign govts had warned terrorists preparing to launch attacks against Western targets ahead of Christmas. No one hurt and authorities still unable to say who might have planted grenade. Finding likely to fuel concerns over terrorist attacks after police last week found explosives in a bus in West Java, which were allegedly meant to be used to attack churches on Christmas eve. (AP)

Lagos spa 07:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Watch very well is the rule of the game

Dallas dh 06:54 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Consolidation huh!!!

lax-lgb SNP 06:50 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
weekly charts show $$$ looking fairly mixed so far since $/chf is below 1.158x but $/cad is above 1.226x

if €/¥ cannot break above 139.36 then i suspect €/$ will lose its 1.328x base and trap some late-buyers

KL MYR 06:30 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
"Silence PartY" 2004.......gonna last till early 2005....tight range will persist cos' big guns not around....,use 5-15 min charts to trade for small movements....don't hurry in getting in...move in only when "real qualified" signals show up...."Merry X'mas 2004 and Happy New Year 2005" ! Gonna get some sun............!

Dallas dh 06:14 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Expecting bulls to begin assault on $ this morning thru new years.

Ldn 05:46 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
( Citigroup ) technicals view short term EUR/USD's bearish weekly reversal posted in week ended Dec. 10 remains intact, suggesting retest of 1.2930 in short term, retest of recent high of 1.3470 at year-end or early 2005 can't be ruled out but a weekly close below 1.3140 would reduce this likelihood and imply sharp fall to 1.2850-1.2930
Also they write.
USD/JPY's good support at 103.40 short-term bias for move higher remains, target remains 107.00-107.30 area, with possibility of 108.55 (200-week moving average)

Sydney 05:37 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Robert Rennie, senior strategist at Westpac says Australian dollar could come under pressure if Australia's current account woes worsen Equilibrium for the Australian dollar in a trade sense is probably is around US$0.6500

Ldn 05:05 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
According to DJ- Morgan Stanley still expects more USD weakness in 2005 but thinning liquidity before year-end, light data calendar suggest caution in coming weeks; says take profits on USD shorts (via EUR/USD, USD/SEK and GBP/USD) in model portfolio

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:52 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
I hope everyone enjoyed his or her weekend and holidays coming up. I am looking at a bullish pattern forming on the eur/usd pair but as I said before the thin markets cannot be trusted as it whips one way or the other with easy. I have resistance number around the 3340-50 area that must be taken out before any further bullish movement can continue. I also have new numbers for eur/usd pair for now.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3340-50, 3380-3400, 3440-50, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3430-40 and Support T/L 3220-30 (this is the triangle forming)
Support is around the 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3060-80 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:19 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
I will be a believer with the aud/usd pair if it breaks resistance (7680-90) IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:08 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Thank you mate I appreciate it. FWIW I have the aud/usd breaking the triangle over 7630-50 looking bullish here but I cannot put a lot of faith on the formation breaking with this thin market IMHO. GT

melbourne farmacia 04:00 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL -cheers, will pop you an email later today.

Syd 03:54 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:31 yes as OMIL says triangle forming with Aud/USD. Qindex has a call on 130.00 area Euro !!

Hong Kong Qindex 03:52 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:47 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:31 GMT December 20, 2004
Hope you had a good weekend. Good observation there is also a triangle forming in the aud/usd pair we shall see how the slice goes thru their. Something else to note and I think I have said it before but this is the time in the season the $ has gotten hammered for the last two years so we will see if that habit has been broken this year. GL GT

London. 03:37 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Huge unapproved investments in new Chinese power plants are prompting a crackdown by Beijing and raising concerns state-owned banks could be saddled with a fresh wave of bad debt.wsj

melbourne farmacia 03:30 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Syd 02:40 - We need to watch this triangle formation on Euro daily… good time of year to slice thru this formation without much trouble. GT

Syd 03:29 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Defense Department has signed a A$1.4 billion contract with European Aeronautic Defense & Space Co. (5730.FR) for five new air-to-air refueling aircraft, Defense Minister Robert Hill said Monday. depending on when they are purchased may be aud negative also to C/A. if classed as imports. Farmacia whats your view on that











PAT 02:59 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
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Syd 02:50 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Jim Walker CLSA talking live HK Bloomberg says interest rates rises will surprise on the upside in the USA in 05 , possiblity of change in stance to 50bps moves.

Syd 02:40 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia Thanks for that

melbourne farmacia 02:31 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Simple Euro assessment – play the potential swings between 1.3427 & 1.3233… compressed intraday activity between 1.3272 / 95 & 1.3337 / 65.
Euro below 1.3395 should contain sideways consolidation with downside bias. Odds are high for account whacking this week, so run tight stops GT

wellington 02:30 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand's economy is expecting broad-based decline with growth in the third quarter likely to soften, economists forecast GDP to grow 4.6% slower than 5.7% in the second quarter. The NZD appreciated more than 70% against the U.S. dollar in the past three years'
REUTERS

Syd 02:18 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Lee Wai Tuck forecast Economics says 101 next year , however they see says BOJ intervention before --Live bloomberg.

London. 02:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
oslo oskar thats up to ones own common sense and ability

oslo oskar 02:09 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
ah yes, could you asshgn relevancy ratings perhaps

Ldn 02:03 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Euro

Tokyo IM 02:01 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
GM all.

London. 01:55 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
oslo oskar the trick is picking what is and isnt, the relevant and irrelevant. JIMHO

oslo oskar 01:43 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
London. 00:24 GMT et al:

you read too much into reading too much

most of these guys are hacks just filling space on the wire or page

London. 01:43 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
IMF urges ECB to keep relaxed monetary stance-Rato
MADRID, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund is urging the European Central Bank to keep interest rates low unless it sees clear signs of rises in inflation, IMF chief Rodrigo Rato said in an interview published on Sunday.
Rato also told Spain's La Vanguardia newspaper that the euro was close to its "equilibrium point", apparently against the dollar. He said the dollar's correction should be against more currencies and not just against the euro.

The IMF was telling European governments that with the strong currency giving them stability it was time to carry out reforms, Rato said, noting that Europe's growth potential was below 2 percent.

"We also tell the European Central Bank that unless it sees clear signs of inflation increases due to the effects of the oil price rise it should keep an accommodative policy," he said.

Annual euro zone inflation fell to 2.2 percent in November from 2.4 percent in October.

The world economy had absorbed the recent oil price rise "without great traumas" and raw material prices were tending to moderate, said Rato, who was interviewed in Washington.

The euro has surged against the dollar in recent months, hitting a record high of $1.3470 last week. It most recently traded around $1.33.

Asked if the euro exchange rate corresponded to the economic reality of the euro zone, Rato said: "With respect to the last 10 or 12 years, it (the euro) is not at its dearest point, although we are getting close to it."

"The euro is approximately at its equilibrium point."

"The relationship between the dollar and the euro is more in line than it was two years ago. But the correction of the dollar must be more global, not just with the euro, but with more currencies," Rato said.

China is under pressure from the U.S. and other Western governments to allow its yuan currency to rise. These governments say the currency is undervalued, giving Chinese exporters an unfair advantage in world markets.

Asked if more pressure should be placed on China to agree to a rise in the yuan, Rato said: "I don't think it's a problem of pressure ... We think it's in China's interest to have an open exchange rate system that allows it to face external shocks."

"They accept that they must move towards that opening. The problem is one of timetable. They are in a process of change in the financial sector, of banking restructuring. There is no contrary position."

Rato said the markets needed clarity about the Bush administration's "maximum political commitment" to reduce the U.S. budget deficit.

The United States also had an external deficit of 5.5-6.0 percent of GDP that it might not be able to finance in the medium term, at least at current prices, he said.

"They don't have the problem that other economies do of not obtaining financing, but the price of that financing can vary. And that has effects. If you have to pay more, and cheapening the currency is one way of paying more, that pushes interest rates and other variables higher," he said

Ldn 01:33 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Canadian Dollar Falls for 4th Week in 5 as Trade Surplus Drops
Canada's dollar fell for the fourth week in five, reaching its lowest in almost two months, as a drop in the trade surplus and lower factory shipments suggested the Bank of Canada will refrain from raising interest rates in the first half of 2005. (Bloomberg)

SG Kan 01:23 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips
What's your Euro short target within the next 24 hours? Thanks

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 01:04 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Some Profit Take on euro short late Tues...then Short again on wed

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:55 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Longed Yen at MKT

Hong Kong Qindex 00:54 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 00:52 GMT - No change in my view.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:53 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Yen Rally till late tuesday

Antwerp Tom 00:52 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, you still see a possibility of reaching your super magnet (1.3067 €/$) in coming days? TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:43 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Buy Euro at the end of friday only...sell for the whole week Traders

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 00:41 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Euro Heavy Selling in two hours...for the rest of the week...
Eur/Aus Specially

Syd 00:34 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
A non-Japanese bank traderin Asia says EURO slipping lower, support at 1.3280 now focus with a break below to signal change in sentiment and bring 1.3200 in sight. IMM data show speculators sentiment turning against EUR for now
newswire reports

Sydney E.M 00:30 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
US rates could edge higher next year possible 100bps above Euro , any Guru view on the affect with Euro

London. 00:24 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
The rise in U.S. inflation vs year-ago starting to worry some economists As such, time may be near for Fed to note inflation in rates stance ,it is difficult to see how the (FOMC) can continue to maintain that the risks associated with inflation are evenly balanced when these year-on-year rates have climbed so much this year
Insight Economics

Sydney E.M 00:19 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Japan's central bank downgraded its assessment of the country's economy. The government said its main budget for the year starting April 1 will total $787.16 billion and allow it to reduce new bond issues. wsj.com

London. 00:11 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja wide swings anything is possible but within ranges 7550 -7650 would imagine with nobody wanting to take on new large positions into this weekend short week also

Sydney EM 00:08 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
Talk of early tokyo buying of USD/YEN bring euro down a fraction

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:05 GMT December 20, 2004 Reply   
London. 23:54 GMT December 19, 2004
Someone heard you! Seems to have found supply above 0.7650 for the moment

 




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