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Forex Forum Archive for 12/21/2004

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Singapore Sfx 23:49 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
tg ... Good day ...

"2 - 4 trades a day of 5 - 25 pips each with rare misfires" ...

Curious about this .. whats your risk appetite on a trade where you are looking for 5 pips ? or 25 pips? not even taking into account bid/offer, to me getting such trades rite "with rare misfires" seems like a far tougher thing to do..

knoxville dan-k 23:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
thanks tg, hope it helps and im here to learn as well so if you or anyone else has helpful patterns, charts, indicators and so on put em on the board maby help all glgt

SanFrancisco TG 23:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
dan - very honest and helpful. for what its worth you've upped my respect for you. Lots of big guys like to make themselves feel important by jumping on the idea of smaller pip trades, but it adds up.

2 - 4 trades a day of 5 - 25 pips each with rare misfires is quite better than licking the wounds of a 60 pip loss bent on larger profit targets. If you can secure more than 25 pips than you have a bonus. I was in a trade competition once with the winner being the first to 200 pips. The conservative approach won with only 3 very small misfires, the looser approach ended in a 50/50 win-loss ratio.

knoxville dan-k 23:33 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
one last thing ill add, if u look at the clear crosses they happen in a tight time frame across the sma10,20 and ccy price line that is the stop and reverse signal, good luck and good trading hope this is helpful

Philadelphia Caba 23:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dan.

knoxville dan-k 23:25 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
yes, also use the sma10, sma20, watch the momentum, fxtrend, and cci and have the eur/usd up against the usd/jpy they seem to counter one another

Philadelphia Caba 23:22 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 22:57 GMT December 21, 2004
caba, yes close0,02,2

Dan, do you use any MA with sar?

knoxville dan-k 23:06 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
in my humble opnion only, the parabolic sar will not give u the big bottoms or big tops, but it pretty much gives u the middles of the trade, it has suprised me a few times but not often, kinda like a oreo cookie forget about the chocolate and get the cream in the middle = lol

knoxville dan-k 23:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
yea, look at the usd jpy on the 15 min, and follow the entry at 103.96 and exit at 104.54

im currently long on the reverse at 104.36 cross

knoxville dan-k 22:57 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
caba, yes close0,02,2

SanFrancisco TG 22:56 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - will do, top day to you. :)

A guy from Spain warned me recently as well there is a sea of them floating about without much sense. Helped my perspective a little. 100 situps, 100 pushups, 100 knee bends :)

lon jr 22:56 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
or does one bat on?

Philadelphia Caba 22:56 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
knoxville dan-k 22:48 GMT December 21, 2004
thats on a 15 min chart

May I ask you what is your SAR settings? 0.02;0.2 on a 15 min chart? Thanks.

knoxville dan-k 22:54 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
well im sure that some in here do, but keep in mind the biggest banks in the world trade this market,

put it this way bill gates, supposedly the richest man in usa could not control the direction in the forex for more than about hour of trading if he was using it all

lon jr 22:50 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
as someone whom trades for a living at home..good month 10-15k dolls.....but what i was getting at was ...do these guys say have 1 mio dlrs in it take 10 pips then walk away for te day??

dc fxq 22:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 22:31 GMT

I've found it to be endemic to every forex paltform I've visited.

Having lived ex-pat for more than 10 years I got very tired of hearing how horrid the US was and yet so many of the critics, if they were able to get a green card, were off to the land of the horrids.

Go figure why they'd want to do that!

ROTFLMAO

knoxville dan-k 22:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
thats on a 15 min chart

knoxville dan-k 22:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
jr, when u say size do u mean how many lots? -- really should not matter much unless u r trading in 100's of millions, my little ole trades wouldnt push a freight train,

however if u look at the parabolic sar on the usd jpy, from 103.96entry, and held it until the cross at 104.54 well u see what i mean, grabbing 10 pips should be pretty fair

lon jr 22:46 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
gudnite talin 125-35 the range for 1st 1/4

Ldn 22:45 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG just remember "sticks and stones "

Tallinn viies 22:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
good evening,
just poped in to check developments.
seems 1,3350/55 held again and people are buying in front of it. I guess most of them want to add near this week low 1,3295/00. of course some wnats to quite there :)
anyway, Im still buying on dips and selling out some overbought. 1,3500 target.
good night

lon jr 22:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
u talk 10 pips a day...what size guys for my info??

SanFrancisco TG 22:40 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Charles - I wish you were around to tell me that when I was just starting years ago lol. I practically took a year off recently with only limited activity about the scale you speak of just to stay fresh. Now I'm back to between 2 and 4 per day and don't look for much, but smaller pips with only occaisional loss and tight discipline really adds up quick. Adding lots is only a matter of selection.

SYD AD 22:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR-USD - Wary of further near term pressure to 1.3355. Clear break below there should be good for 25/50 pips - but lift above 1.3375 area would turn intraday (Asia session) focus back toward 1.3405/15.
----
FREE - FX-Risk Calculator - available from www.ForexFlows.com

knoxville dan-k 22:32 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
well i agree somewhat, but i look for at least 10 pips + per day-should be easy with usd/jpy, or the eru/usd, if u use just the parabolic sar, you should be able to pull that or more- imho

SanFrancisco TG 22:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Ldn, and doing well. I do know for a fact there are posters out there who agree with me 100% though who are remaining silent. Regardless, I sure would like to see a lot less of that shallow, dumb, anti America propoganda (Bush is really only a symbol) in here and a lot more actual trading/economic content. Have a good day.

Memphis Charles 22:24 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG, spending too much time here tends to make one believe that this forum IS the market. It's not.

Unless you are a bank trader, your trading activities ought to take only a few hours a day. Don't watch every pip change and read every piece of news that comes off the wire.

Put your positions on, put in a limit order to take your profit. Don't forget to take your profits when the market presents them to you. It's as important to designate a level in which you want to take profits as it is a level in which you want to bail.

You can't position trade without a seriously large account. Don't try. Your goal ought to be to open and close one winning trade a week. Do that for a couple of years then start trading for the big pull.

Syd 22:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
With interest rate convergence between U.S. and Australia/NZ taking place due to further FOMC rate hikes in 2005 against backdrop of steady to potentially lower cash rates in Australia and NZ, positive interest rate carry for both AUD and NZD will steadily dissipate "Against a backdrop of less tangible interest rate support, the near-record current account deficits in Australia and New Zealand and a stable to potentially lower terms-of-trade dynamic are likely to expose the AUD and the NZD to a significantly more hostile offshore funding environment in 2005 than has been the case in either 2003 or 2004,"
NAB report.

Ldn 22:08 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG your reading far to much into everything TG
shouldnt let it get to you , at least you know your right and thats all that matters . Try to stay cool its much better for your health words didnt kill anyone.

lon jr 22:08 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
forget it...everyone expects euro 140+....it is 125-135..that is a weak doll for cbanks...the last time every economist talked weaker doll (again 135-140) where did we go. This is not a free ticket...128 bfore 136....cable trust me will lead the way...euro yen 134 bfore 141.50

SanFrancisco TG 22:02 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Charles - they were trying to make us out to be the bad guy in 1930-1945 also. Its all shallow ideology and has little to do with trading.

Ldn 21:56 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th at least they got that right , would have ended the year on a bad note

Memphis Charles 21:53 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Hang in there TG, you will find that those who cheerlead for one currency or another epitomize the word "amateur."

Bringing that kind of bias to the forex market is a guaranteed path to disaster. I'll grant you that a lot of these blokes seem to have staying power but I think the advent of the 'mini' account has a lot to do with that. $300 gets you a chip in the big game.

That said, the dollar/U.S. bashing is usually why I can only take this place in very, very small doses. It is irksome to read and wade through anti-U.S. posts in the worst, most broken English one can imagine.



Ltn th 21:51 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Was going on the reported comments of police spokesman. But I believe you are rigfht. They have at least had a small win.

Ldn 21:50 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
More of a balanced view below.

Most investors have already closed their books on currency trading for 2004, with only some minor residual trading still taking place, said analysts. Positioning is returning to neutral in preparation for the new year.

The dollar looks likely to continue its long-term decline in 2005, but many see a gentler ride for the U.S. currency, particularly in the second half.

After three years of slipping and sliding, the dollar may regain some of its footing if, as expected, the U.S. economy outperforms most of its major rivals.

But dollar bulls, who were pushed to the verge of extinction in 2004, still remain an endangered species. Analysts generally expect the euro to trade between $1.35 and $1.40 in 12 months time.

"Our long-term forecasts remain (dollar) bearish and we keep our long-standing $1.40 twelve-month call on EUR/USD," wrote censored in a research note.

censored, one of the largest participants in the foreign exchange market, said it expects the dollar will need to fall further in the long term to help adjust the U.S. current account deficit. The dollar will also come under pressure as central banks continue to diversify their reserves out of the U.S. currency.

Concerns about financing the shortfalls resulting from structural imbalances in the U.S. economy have provided the rationale for much of the dollar's drop in recent years.

While these worries aren't about to disappear off the investment horizon, they may lose a lot of their impact. Traders may take the dollar lower during the early months of 2005, but it's no longer as good a bet that the greenback will continue to fall.

The economic picture for the U.S. next year is widely considered to be more promising than for the euro zone or Japan. The Federal Reserve "will be hiking interest rates more aggressively than other central banks in 2005," according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, an advisory group based in Valhalla, N.Y.

U.S. dollar interest rates will "continue to pull above those of much of the rest of the world," Weinberg wrote in an outlook for 2005. "This will make it increasingly expensive to short the U.S. dollar, a distinct change from 2004, when speculators were paid to bet the U.S. dollar would cheapen.

After the increase announced on Dec. 12, the Fed's benchmark rate stands at 2.25% against an equivalent euro-zone rate of 2.0% and near zero in Japan. Many analysts expect the key U.S. rate to reach between 3.0% and 4.0% by the end of 2005.

A return "to chase U.S. yield," coupled with the difficulty that major foreign exchange pairs face in breaking through historical highs or lows, "will restrain the underlying dollar bear next year," said Amarjit Sahota, chief currency strategist at the San Francisco office of London-based HIFX.

In fact, the dollar's losses during 2004 were modest compared with 2003. The U.S. currency is down about 6.3% this year versus the euro after a 20% drop in 2003.

Against the yen, the dollar faces a somewhat similar situation next year. Analysts are looking for a decrease for the dollar over the next 12 months to about Y102.50.

Although Japanese monetary authorities haven't intervened in markets to slow the yen's appreciation since March 2004, few observers doubt the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan will hesitate to use the intervention weapon again if the dollar dips below Y100 at any point.
dow jones

Ldn 21:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th didnt they just sell it

GOES B747 21:44 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 21:37 GMT // yesterday the value (in USD and or EUR)was much higher :)

gt

Ltn th 21:43 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 21:37 GMT. I hope the NAB is not insured with its own "totally owned subsidiary".

GOES B747 21:43 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 21:29 GMT // personally, I beleive it is the right call for 3-5 years time frame for +++35% y/y yield for that time frame ... if we start counting from 01/DEC/05 until 31/DEC/2009, I will not be surprised if EUR/USD average price for that period will be USD 0.85-090 for 1EUR

gt all

Ldn 21:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Probably easier than fx tradingGang in '£20m' bank raid

perrie como 21:36 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GBG



god bless gold

SanFrancisco TG 21:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Its been a somewhat rewarding day due to real market interaction, and somewhat amazingly comical day considering the various pitiful anti-US propoganda methods used in here. You all have a nice day.

Ldn 21:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 if there is a change in sentiment its a win win situation.

perrie como 21:29 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES 747
I heard several advisors from several european banks receiving the same order to promote USDs related investments to their customers

poor small investors

GOES B747 21:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
FORTIS bank (Benelux) advices the higher end of itís customers to buy stocks in USA to profit from rise in stocks and from stronger USD.

They are famous for their services among the deepest pockets of the Benelux.


gt all

SanFrancisco TG 21:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
th - lol. Seeing how US dollars are a scam then, does this mean I should deposit ink (or gold) into my dealers account to make sure there is a "real value"?

Amazing after all these years the USD has been just a scam.

perrie como 21:26 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco TG...guess is too wind down there at the bay...I said that you were too bold with those 300 years, since It's only 30 years now when gold reserves are not anymore requested to back a currency. So now playing huge debts, thats Fiat.

so please be cool now and good nite
maybe you deserve a rest

Ltn th 21:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG. Shame on you for suggesting USD's are worthless!
Why just yesterday I heard that murdock is setting up a new recycling plant to buy greenbacks straight of the presses. He plans to recycle them to recover the ink and paper components that he plans to re-sell to the mint for a clear $1 profit each.

Ldn 21:16 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th you know what they say ,that most speculative traders miss the first 10% of the move .

SanFrancisco TG 21:15 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I've had thoughts of saying something like .. I'll be back next year .. in light of the incredible propoganda in this place.

But because of it, I think I'll make sure I'm here every single day of every month of every year going forward. God bless America.

SanFrancisco TG 21:11 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
como - Oh God, you mean all my "FIAT" US dollars are worthless?!

I better run to the store and trade them for gold while I have a chance because they are surely an evil government plot of no value.

Ltn th 21:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn and NH. Just possibly we are looking for trouble in the wrong place. JIMHO the USD is at or a tad above safe levels compared with the likes of CHF or euro. Cable, being grossly overvalued together with ongoing -ve yield curve prospects could be real trigger for any disaster if unchecked.

perrie como 21:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
funny that Kuroda...not so clear what he says, but guess he is saying the yen will stenghten tomorrow

however I'll sleep on It

perrie como 21:02 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
gold 300 years..I thought It was 1974 when defined FIAT Dollar

Ldn 20:58 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh , well I think the fear of more of this will start to sink in their thick heads Weak dollar has Volvo considering moving more production to U.S. Swedish truck maker Volvo AB may shift its manufacturing expansion in Sweden to the United States to take advantage of the cheap dollar, its chief executive officer said Monday. LINK

Livingston nh 20:51 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps more than interventions or rate cuts by ECB a simple rumor might suffice -- The Return of WIM

Ldn 20:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
-Japan's Kuroda sees no reason for dlr to fall more

SanFrancisco TG 20:46 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The day Gold is "the only safe play" is the day the modern world reverts 300 years.

perrie gold 20:40 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
currencies might suffer serius contagion if hundreds of billions of global baskets have to be reduced.

gold maybe only safe play

or else vacations :)

happy chaos

Ldn 20:40 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Selling dollar no sure bet for hedge funds in 2005MARKETS WARY OF TAKING DOLLAR LOWER
"I think the edge of the cliff is coming, possibly in the first week of January, and we could see a dollar rally," said Taylor, whose fund manages assets of around $11 billion.

He said the dollar's prospects for 2005 could boil down to fundamentals, saying that the U.S. economy is faring much better than Europe's and should continue to do so, especially if sluggish euro zone performance forces the ECB to cut rates.

Higher rates tend to boost yields on some investment instruments, boosting their appeal to global investors.


Mtl JP 20:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn / well, eurobulls just may have to be humbled a bit. Market currently seems to greet positive usd news with scepticism, and as we know, no boat is safe with everyone piled to one side.

San Diego DC 20:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$ Last 3 sessions CLOSES:

Just an observation. If you noticed the last 3 session closes for EUR/$, Closing price happens to be a low as well. This type of synchronization points to an iminent upmove IMHO.

NY session close(EUR futures close) = 1.3355 which is a Low
Europe session close = 1.3355 which is a low as well
Asia session close (Last nite) = 1.3347 which is a low as well

Ldn 20:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP I agree entirely with your view the problem is the Euro Bulls market have to accept it
below is another nail in its coffin.


Ten of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks asked for a higher discount rate ahead of the Nov. 10 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to the Fed's discount rate minutes released Tuesday.

Mtl JP 20:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 19:58 / GBP registered a key reversal last Th and as such may be precursor to the next move in euro. As much as I hate calling tops, I hold a down bias for 1.3150/40 trgt as well. 1.3440 and 1.3469 (critical high) are R.

Ldn 19:58 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The rally in EUR not so impressive ,notes stalled ahead of 1.3430 resistance, and recommends caution over next few days. Warns a break below 1.3340 will trigger bearish signal suggesting corrective phase not yet complete and putting focus on 1.3205 and the 1.3145 corrective low. Piar now at 1.3356
BNP Paribas

Ldn 19:58 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The rally in EUR not so impressive ,notes stalled ahead of 1.3430 resistance, and recommends caution over next few days. Warns a break below 1.3340 will trigger bearish signal suggesting corrective phase not yet complete and putting focus on 1.3205 and the 1.3145 corrective low. Piar now at 1.3356
BNP Paribas

San Diego DC 19:18 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
San Fracisco TG,

I didn't know that when you mentioned the stock market, you meant S&P, sorry. I have not followed S&P and we will let the market tell us if it is time to turn or not.

SanFrancisco TG 19:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks DC, I'll watch that. I'm of course speaking more of s/p futures and when I say thats it for the upside i mean 1206 in a prior post and only for today. Who knows, maybe I'm totally wrong. Regardless, your input really has me curious as I've been wondering more about time cycles lately. Since November the s/p has seen any pull backs as shallow and met with a little more buying interest with rising bottoms. However, one might think at this stage those stoks need a little dip to create better pricing/liquidity.

San Diego DC 19:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG ,

Regarding your comments on stocks, I have a different opinion. I will speak specifically for NASDAQ because I position trade it. That's not it for today for the upside. The upside will continue atleast until the next time cycle of Dec25th. Since 25th is a holiday, I would watch for any changes in direction both the trading day before and trading day after tehe date.

SanFrancisco TG 18:54 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Speaking of such, thats it for the stock upside today in my opinion. USD in general been giving the old Missouri "show me" sign as well and floundering just short of some highs. Wonder if anyone else is getting the sense market makers are just testing waters/building liquidity on both ends at these levels.

Memphis Charles 18:44 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Two HUGELY different things....

Memphis Charles 18:43 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Transactional demand, not necessarily speculative demand.

Memphis Charles 18:41 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
c.p. = ceteris paribas

Memphis Charles 18:39 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I can tell I've been away too long... TG, believe me when I tell you that I understand that when the U.S. stock market is on a bull run that $ demand goes up, c.p.

Dublin Flip 18:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
LOL

Spotforex NY 18:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
exacty Flip...Once I recognize a correlation..it quickly mutants into another form for me to figure out......

SanFrancisco TG 18:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Charles - listen to Flip he knows what he's talking about. Only occaisionally do I correlate stock behavior with currencies intra day. I usually tend to glance on non-data days and if I see something screaming at me I might pay attention. However, foreigners (non-US) do need to convert their currency to USD to buy stocks in many cases and some days dicate that. So its not completely to be ignored. Also, the correllation of 10 year tsys to the USD in the NY session I have found to be fruitful often.

Memphis Charles 18:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Or lack thereof depending on matters....

Memphis Charles 18:33 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Oh, I'm well aware of the correlation between the items you mentioned.

Dublin Flip 18:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
or the reader digest version.
no correlation tends to last much longer once it's been highlighted to the market talking heads-LOL

Dublin Flip 18:28 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Chuck though people like to draw correlations between instruments many prove to be fairly transitory relationships (that ebb between +ve and -ve correlations). e.g.1- Oil has been seen as dollar (and or Yen) +ve and -ve a few times this year already. The other favorite is the stocks/USD one. e.g.2-Stocks have actually had a -ve correlation with the dollar the past two years (i.e. stocks up and dollar down) but the ever popular knee-jerk reaction from the punters is actually the opposite (i.e. stocks up = dollar up and vice versa). So I guess the rule is correlations tend to work until they don't (which become expensive to realise) and then new ones do, repeat cycle-LOL
be lucky

Memphis Charles 18:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
... using one as a leading indicator for another and actually placing orders.....

Memphis Charles 18:26 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG, obviously it's difficult to trade markets that move simultaneously.


SF zk 18:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Any insights into GBP/USD?

SanFrancisco TG 18:19 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Charles - certain GVI members educated me long ago to the fact that stocks only sometimes move in symapthy with the USD. Today it just happens to be working that way to some degree I think. Perhaps its a matter of when data is lacking stock allocations can dictate to some degree thus creating somewhat more acute demand for dollars overriding other concerns. Regarding time frames, personally I tend to use shorter time frames with wider parameters for stock futures and wider time frames with shorter average parameters for currencies. JP will chastize me any minute of course for not profiding a pre-emptive recommentation now.

Memphis Charles 18:15 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
And how much time does one lag the other? If S&P futures move up do I have five minutes in which to long the dollar for a nice daytrade profit?

Mtl JP 18:13 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
NY 18:05 / I tot it had a time decay for the duration of the meeting and the drink-induced dellirium.

Memphis Charles 18:11 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Or maybe the better question, TG, is which one is leading which?

Memphis Charles 18:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG, by what time increment are you discovering that moves in the stock market are preceeding moves in the spot forex market?

Halifax CB 18:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
lol spot - that i can live with.....(fwiw, that bit of peace that broke out on the western front in 1914 is a fascinating bit of history. I think it's well described in Modris Ekstein's "Rites of Spring" (about culture & WWI) IIRC...

Spotforex NY 18:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
JP....

There was that famous PAT amendment added to GV NY convention back in the fall of '02

"WHEREAS MEMBERS MAY OCCASSIONALLY 'PAT' THEMESELVES ON THE BACK IN SELECTIVE POSTS WHEN RECENT TRADING ACTIVITY CORRESPONDS TO REALIZED PROFITS."

It pass by two-thirds vote after the fourth round (of drinks).

gold coast martin 18:03 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
;LOL/; SPOT...We cannot have everlasting peace in the FF....As you say ...different strokes for different folks ,,,,,while others prefer entry to exit....and then there is the subject of forex!!!!....

SanFrancisco TG 18:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Woops, again I appear to have said more than I should.

SanFrancisco TG 18:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 17:32 - Thanks, hadn't considered that. So far so good. Stocks rolling back up as we speak with hesitant symphony. S/P futures 1206 a barrier so USD upside could be limited if that ends up being a hurdle and the $ remains in concert today.

Mtl JP 18:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG 17:49 / I haven't decreed anything.

Are u blind ? From the signup:

GUIDELINES FOR THE FOREX FORUM

1 The forums are meant to be places where traders from around the globe can relay information and ideas. Their purpose is to GENERATE TRADING IDEAS.

Spotforex NY 17:58 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I did not say it would be a 'lasting' peace....

but volatility would still be around as gov't mismanged their economic policies...companies will add/subtract to their payrolls, consumers around the globe will spend/save, investors will look for yield....

Peace would not minimize the volatility. Humnas will continue to panic for whatever reasons (lunar/solar/aqua...whatever....)

Halifax CB 17:55 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Exactly JP, that's why someone posting an exit is an interesting bit of information; knowing when they were long or short at the time adds to it.

Jaundiced Trader 17:53 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I'm still wondering why Dallas's stop was not elected for a loss instead of the trailing stop elected for a gain...

Anyone, anyone, Buehler, Buehler?

Halifax CB 17:52 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Whoops - sorry, my last post should have been directed to Spot, not chester....

Mtl JP 17:51 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
CB 17:24 / Biiig big mistake. Entry and close are not equal. One could enter at any time. Entry is much much less important than knowing when to snatch the diamond before it becomes coal, or cut a loser before the market decides for you that IT is cutting it on your behalf. It is not knowing (or not having planned) when to get out that kills.

Jaundiced Trader 17:50 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Does anybody have any order flow or option defence info?

I can make twelve pips by trading the direction the flag in front of my office is flying.

(Don't know why GV deleted this)

SanFrancisco TG 17:49 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
By the way JP - If the forum followed your "decree" 100% of the posts here would give trade recommendations prior to entry and nothing else. Sounds a little nazi to me.

Halifax CB 17:46 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
chester wb - I do hope you realize that if peace broke out all over the world & we all understood each other then there would be no need for arbitrage, no inefficiencies in the markets, & hence no currency profits? Wishing every body a merry, but volatile, christmas :) (I could, of course, do without the losses...)

London NR 17:41 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Woot!

Antwerp Tom 17:39 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex 17:32 GMT LOL!

Jaundiced Trader 17:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow's range is likely to be 75 to 125 pips +/- than today's range.

There, I'm an expert. Go make some money.

SanFrancisco TG 17:33 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Spot - :). Never have I thought you to be anything but a good one.

gold coast martin 17:32 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco TG 17:27 GMT December 21, 2004
Just for christmas,trade observations using the macd on a five minute timeframe....sure to succeed...g/t

chester wb 17:32 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
with all the bickering going on it's either a full moon somewhere or else all the finger pointers have sold the bottom and bought the top

Spotforex NY 17:32 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps this forum would encounter a "Christmas truce"...just like the one that occurred in the trenches of France on Dec 25th, 1914.


I can see the headline now....."A strange silence overcame the Global-view FF today when the usual antagonists in the forum abruptly halted their aggressive criticism and hate tactics on other members and embraced them in a sign of good will"

"How can we achieve 'peace on earth' if we cannot even accomplish it in a virtual trading room?" cited one anonymous member.

"If we can achieve a lasting peace in FF, then perhaps its effects would ripple through the GV world and even into real places on this globe Ė Perhaps even the political forum would sub come to hope and love" cited another member.

SanFrancisco TG 17:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I would like to add, on that note, that stocks obviously regained their bid and thus the USD (today in NY) could well challange the highs. An observation. I have more I could add but don't. Tell you what, just to show you I don't care about what people think of my record, all of next week I will only trade observations and not be prcise, therefore diluting my input in the forum for your benefit. Big whoop.

Halifax CB 17:24 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Actually JP, knowing when to close a position is as important as knowing when to open one, and technically they both involve trades. Each to his own style, I don't know why there is such a raft of nannies cross-examining other people's trades about today.

manila stubbs 17:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
and a happy christmas to you!

SanFrancisco TG 17:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
JP - you need a good jacuzzi. My post are not self serving. If so I would say sold here, bought there, see I told you so. I'm only providing my thoughts and don't really feel my "real time entry/exits" are appropriate, though I may post one here and there.

Your too uptight man, take a break. Today I've basically posted ideas about how stocks and the USD are moving somewhat in sink and included a closure of a trade because of that. Big whoop.

Jaudiced Trader 17:21 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
And another thing - can I please be considered an expert if I post a trading range two standard deviations + or - from yesterday's high and low, dress it up with some bar graphs, and tell you to trade on it?

Boca Raton 17:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
manila stubbs 17:17

No nerves here pal. I am as cool as a cucumber. Merry New Year!

dc fxq 17:18 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I say:

"peas on earth
Gouda wheel to men"

Mtl JP 17:18 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG / the value of the forum is in posting trade-generating ideas before a price move happens.

Historical and un-substantiated "what I did / look at me I am good trader" serves nothing more than to self-flatter one's ego. It is also gutless.

manila stubbs 17:17 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP vs. San Francisco TG
Boca Raton vs. Dallas Gep
Zurich Picasso vs. Bahrain Within 10 pips

it looks like the thin market are getting to everyone's nerves.

Jaundiced Trader 17:17 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton - very well said.

SanFrancisco TG 17:08 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
JP - if I don't post my trades real time and you have a problem with that, its your problem. I thought my posts still had some real time value even if pointing out other considerations. Regarding pip cultivation, you are correct, in general my approach is not one that is designed to harvest considerable pips per trade, and is rather focused on greater percent of success from smaller actions. It is rare I "hold" a position.

Mtl JP 17:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
TG 15:54 / "closed .. a small Euro short from about 2 hours ago at a little more than my usual take"

Archive shows 15:52, 15:46, 15:07 and then 20:00GMT posts. NONE says you took out a short euro two hours ago... but assuming you did, two hours would have seen a maybe 25 pip gain..

Trading in hind-sight aren't we and for 10-15 pips is "little more than my usual take" ?

Boca Raton 17:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT December 21, 2004
Well my usd/jpy long caught my trailing stop earlier @ 104.25 for +29.

Pal, I have been watching this here. When you got in, it was the absolute low given at the time. (hmmmm). And you said you had a 15 point stop loss on it. That would make the stop at 103.80. The low was 68 given, how can you then get CAUGHT on a trailing stop at 104.25? Could it be that you just got CAUGHT doing your usual antics? Somehow, the NEWBIES as you like to call them, still think you are a trading guru. The more seasoned chaps here see right through it. Trading Commandment #4, Though shall not fabricate. Learn it, love it, live it.

London GLB 16:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
had enough of this long eur/jpy stopped out at 139.50
-35pts ouch

orlando jcr 16:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dr. Q.

I guess I was looking at a high of ~1.9490 this AM, and your next target at 1.9177 and thought that was a little much for a direct line, but cable can be a big mover, so I guess that can actually happen.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:26 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
orlando jcr 16:23 GMT - I guess the market is building up its downward trending momentum.

orlando jcr 16:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q.

Interested in your view on cable...
You're looking for sub-1.92 on your trend...
Are you seeing this as coming directly, or will there be more test of 1.93 first...???

Makati Obelix 16:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
All-righty Dr Q. Take it easy. :)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:06 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Longed Cable/yen
for 201.87

Hong Kong Qindex 16:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Makati Obelix 16:00 GMT - I guess it will follow GBP/USD.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:04 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Makati Obelix 16:00 GMT - I am lazy and havn't updated my analysis on this pair.

Makati Obelix 16:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q, what's your comment of GBP/YEN.

HK Kevin 16:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
EUU bear, don't lose your patience. Hold your short. Short EUR/GBP at 6936 with tight dstop above 6945

SanFrancisco TG 15:54 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
On that note, I have closed my only trade for the morning, a small Euro short from about 2 hours ago at a little more than my usual take.

SanFrancisco TG 15:52 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ordinarilly I don't consider stocks to USD flows but today the (especially lacking other catalysts) there has been some relationship.

SanFrancisco TG 15:46 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Stocks stalled and so has the USD, I'd be apprehensive about holding them for further gains the rest of the morning especially considering certain levels approaching.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:45 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-


... // 1.7427 - 1.7799 - 1.8132 - 1.8853 - 1.9144 - 1.9466 // ...

Hong Kong Qindex 15:43 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : 1.9144 is the short term target.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:57 GMT December 20, 2004
GBP/USD : Negative if the market is trading below 1.9466.


... // {1.9466} - 1.9505 - 1.9543 // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 09:49 GMT December 20, 2004
GBP/USD : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-


... // 1.8132 - 1.8853 - 1.7427 - 1.7799 - 1.9144 - 1.9466 // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 15:40 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.3350.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:39 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:48 GMT December 19, 2004
EUR/USD : Key quantized levels of 3-day, 5-day, 10-day, 22-day and 44-day cycle (16/12 and 17/12) are located at the following :-


... // 1.2756 - 1.3016 - 1.3101 - 1.3128 - 1.3205 - 1.3250 - 1.3276 - 1.3350 - 1.3420 - 1.3548 // ...


knoxville dan-k 15:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
is anyone lacking news feed -- tia

HK Kevin 15:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
1.3360 is the real test of EUR, please break lower.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:33 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Next 4 hours trade plan
CURREN Short Long Short _Stop Long_Stop TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3452 1.3334 1.3523 1.3252 Hold Buy
USDJPY 104.76 103.71 105.45 103.05 Sell Buy
GBPUSD 1.9444 1.9259 1.9552 1.9139 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1562 1.1440 1.1646 1.1367 Hold Buy
EURCHF 1.5434 1.5369 1.5473 1.5330 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7704 0.7610 0.7760 0.7545 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2313 1.2180 1.2412 1.2103 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7179 0.7074 0.7247 0.7008 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6940 0.6902 0.6963 0.6880 Hold Hold
EURJPY 140.32 139.35 140.86 138.78 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 202.86 201.23 203.83 200.28 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 91.13 90.40 91.55 89.97 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2322 2.2167 2.2418 2.2076 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7581 1.7410 1.7692 1.7317 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6495 1.6327 1.6608 1.6236 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9428 0.9314 0.9494 0.9246 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 80.29 79.45 80.75 78.90 Hold Hold

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Not a Problem
These are the ratios I work with
The trade GBPJPY is over with profit take at 1/3 of posted ranges..
ie Short USDJPY 104.76 PT at 104.76-1/3*(104.76-103.71)
GT
Currency Short Long
EURUSD 1.3452 1.3334
USDJPY 104.76 103.71
GBPUSD 1.9444 1.9259
USDCHF 1.1562 1.1440
EURCHF 1.5434 1.5369
AUDUSD 0.7704 0.7610
USDCAD 1.2313 1.2180
NZDUSD 0.7179 0.7074
EURGBP 0.6940 0.6902
EURJPY 140.32 139.35
GBPJPY 202.86 201.23
CHFJPY 91.13 90.40
GBPCHF 2.2322 2.2167
EURAUD 1.7581 1.7410
EURCAD 1.6495 1.6327
AUDCAD 0.9428 0.9314
AUDJPY 80.29 79.45

beirut jb 15:29 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
hi

should strong hand holding this euro up, amazing how it's holding up so far,

the Question is : will euro catch sterling and yen down or

they will catch it up?

London GLB 15:26 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
usd finding a bid tone, some real money selling 300+eurusd moving it 20 pips lower (ie fairly thin), same theme in gbp/usd - its all about the usd this afternoon .

London Iain 15:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:13 GMT December 21, 2004

Don't mean anything by this, just for your own information. Cable is sterling v's us dollar.
You were long sterling v's yen or gbpjpy originally, which means you were already short jpy (and long gbp).
You're now short gbpjpy or long jpy...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:13 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Out Cable/yen
Now short yen

SanFrancisco TG 15:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
$ is moving in tandem fairly well with stocks today. Stocks are currently being sold after opeining strong and $ pulling back on bids in unison. If the stocks hold upside for $ could very well set in more solid throughout the morning.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Cable/yen long

London.. 15:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
THE Pentagon said 22 people were killed in a blast at a US military base in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul today, CNN reported.

orlando jcr 14:44 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
What does it mean that cable hit 1.9300...
Is that a down signal, up signal, or neutral...??

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:38 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Zzzzzzz

manila stubbs 14:36 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Sing GD 14:25 GMT December 21, 2004

sorry im not that familiar with how options work yet.

Sing GD 14:25 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Manila Stubbs - As soon as they are triggered - Sorry just for a laugh ..

manila stubbs 14:03 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
par 14:00 GMT December 21, 2004

when do these expire. TIA

par 14:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
1.93000 GBP option being protected all day.

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Well my usd/jpy long caught my trailing stop earlier @ 104.25 for +29. Flat now. Missed the short euro @ 1.3400. That was a nice one.

sofia 100ikata 13:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES we see man

Dallas GEP 13:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GD

GOES B747 13:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
sofia 100ikata 13:20 GMT // I am not saying the guy is posting wrong call; I do say that he may using sick sense of humor ... be careful !!!

gt

dc fxq 13:28 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Boca Raton 13:14 GMT December 21, 2004
E F Hutton said the Great British Pound is going lower.

did everyone listen?

LoL

sofia 100ikata 13:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
sell euro now

Boca Raton 13:14 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
E F Hutton said the Great British Pound is going lower.

nyc sa 13:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
hi shanghai, well said , any view on euro/yen ?

shanghai bc 12:57 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

VIIES -- Good evening..They should be Merrily lynched for saying that..No revaluataion next year..Good trades.

Tallinn viies 12:52 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
bc - what do you think about this story?
DJ: Considering bearish risks for EMU fixed income over the coming two thin weeks, Merrill Lynch suggests the biggest threat is a Chinese revaluation between Christmas and New Year. This is a heavy non-consensus trade, but Merrill notes China revalued on New Year's Day 1994.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:36 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Test

CURREN Short Long Short _Stop Long_Stop TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3438 1.3350 1.3471 1.3311 Hold Buy
USDJPY 104.63 103.83 104.95 103.52 Sell Buy
GBPUSD 1.9423 1.9282 1.9474 1.9226 Hold Hold

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
using these today...I don't think there is a problem using them

Curren Short Long Short _Stop Long_Stop TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3438 1.3350 1.3471 1.3311 Hold Buy
USDJPY 104.63 103.83 104.95 103.52 Sell Buy
GBPUSD 1.9423 1.9282 1.9474 1.9226 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1546 1.1454 1.1585 1.1419 Hold Buy
EURCHF 1.5426 1.5376 1.5445 1.5358 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7693 0.7623 0.7719 0.7592 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2294 1.2195 1.2340 1.2159 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7166 0.7087 0.7198 0.7056 Hold Buy
EURGBP 0.6935 0.6906 0.6946 0.6896 Hold Hold
EURJPY 140.21 139.46 140.47 139.20 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 202.67 201.42 203.13 200.97 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 91.05 90.48 91.25 90.28 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2303 2.2184 2.2348 2.2141 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7559 1.7429 1.7612 1.7385 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6474 1.6345 1.6527 1.6302 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9415 0.9327 0.9446 0.9295 Hold Hold
AUDJPY 80.20 79.56 80.42 79.30 Hold Hold

GOES B747 12:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
"EUR/USD: Leveraged Accounts Looking For New Historic Highs"; whne such an accouns will not have the $$$ to fight it will bring 400-500pips drop.

imo gt

London GLB 12:08 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY bullish on hourly chart, 140.10 achievable today, Macd looking quite bullish also, stop going in at 139.50

KL KL 11:53 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
OUT gbpusd +3...seems like hard day to play long term ...oh well try again lower if seen.

riyadh 11:39 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
negative divergence on 1hr on euro mean sell watch it for a next for a next hr or so

Bkk bounbough 11:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Euro DLY: Is that a diamond formation?

GOES B747 11:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Tony Blair arrived in Iraq ... GBP positive or negative?! :)

gt

Syd 11:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 no worries.

Syd 11:21 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Aud could pullback to 7441 area before weekend if the profit taking sets in. JIMHO

KL KL 11:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
in long gbpusd 1.9352 sl 1.933...things have changed a bit so sl now a bit more. The market is thin and both ways the train will move. I have no idea this eoy trading .... like a lull before storm in stocks as well!!!careful trading and discipline....

Ldn 11:19 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Flows - Cable nervous after RICS now eyes -Brown meeting with US trasury Snow and Greenspan , he said before leavig for US that the USD fall a worry , stoploss likely to build given that market player may close some long positions towards the year end .

GOES B747 11:16 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
deeply sorry ... I mean US ... US ... all of us !!!
sorry again guys !!!

cheers :)

London NR 11:11 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Breaking news...New trading tips revealed...have a look at what I am doing then do exactly the opposite! You Will be rich!!
Throw me a bone!! LOL GL GT

Syd 11:11 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc i think he means us :-)

GOES B747 11:09 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:48 GMT // hats off Sir, knowledge through expirience seems to be your asset ... use it and if you do not mind please share that with me :)

gl gt

Tallinn viies 11:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
buying even at here 1,3390/00 level isnt bad idea at all I think.
as there is suitable place to leave stop order under 1,3350...

all rioght going out for lunch cu later near 1,3470/80

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:48 GMT December 21, 2004
And you have not grown a year old since then BC. :-) Have a great holiday.

Stockholm AGuy 10:53 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 10:47 GMT:

How about this? "Breaking news: White House declares budget deficit a Weapon of Mass Destruction, orders Congress invaded". :-O

shanghai bc 10:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

AMC 01:27-- When I started my first phone call to trade forex,there was a guy called Jimmy Carter just arriving at the Whitehouse to collect his keys..

Ltn th 10:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Flip. Due to the internaional situation and the probable danger to homeland, the next presidential elections will need to be deferred indefinitely.

Stockholm AGuy 10:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:41 GMT:

More. Second term begins in January.

myc grumpy 10:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 10:41 GMT December 21, 2004
Five!!!! He's only in for less than another four isn't he???

actually he is having the two term limit removed just as Clinton wished for

Ldn 10:46 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Concern about the U.K.'s growing current account deficit is set to create the same problem for the pound that the U.S. deficit has been creating for the dollar. With British interest rates still offering a considerably large premium relative to those in the U.S., sterling shouldn't be quite as vulnerable as the greenback. However, this has hasn't stopped analysts turning sour on sterling only days after it was hitting 12-year highs against the dollar. "We expect sterling to weaken on a trade-weighted basis by 6% over the next year," wrote economists at Goldman Sachs in their response to news Thursday that Britain's trade deficit with the rest of the world had widened unexpectedly to GBP5.3 billion. That's its highest level since January and triggers fears that similar expansion in the country's current account deficit will follow.
"Should we worry about a catastrophic collapse of the pound, analogous to what some analysts promise us for the U.S. dollar?" queried Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics in New York. The problem is that the deterioration in the U.K. trade balance comes when the British economy is already starting to show signs of a slowdown.
Paul Dales, U.K. economist with Capital Economics in London, pointed out that the trade deficit widened from GBP4.4 billion September, even though trade in oil alone recorded a surplus of GBP0.2 billion in October compared with a deficit of GBP0.1 billion in September. "Overall the trend in the goods deficit is still widening and this has not been offset by any improvement on the services side," he said. He said that investors now need to be braced for widening in the country's current account gap as well. The current account includes services as well investment flows alongside the actual trade in goods. "We would not rule out blow out current account figures in the next few quarters that could put significant pressure on the exchange rate," added Alan Castle, U.K. economist with Lehman Brothers in London.
He noted that at current levels, the trade gap is already up at 5.5% of GDP, nearly as high as the trade deficit to GDP ratio in the U.S. This expansion in the trade deficit has come just as the Bank of England is indicating that U.K. interest rates may have peaked, with the bank leaving rates unchanged at 4.75% after its last policy meeting finished on Thursday. The last time the bank raised rates was back in August, just before strong evidence of a slowdown in the U.K. housing market had started to show through.
After years of strong house price rises, this slowdown has damaged consumer activity. James Knightley, an economist with ING Financial Markets in London, reckons consumer demand could fall even more in coming months as about 5% of mortgage borrowers will come off fixed-rate deals in the first half of 2005 and find their mortgage bills rising substantially. Taken alongside suggestions that the government will be forced to raise taxes for the Treasury to achieve its "Golden Rule" of balanced budgets and consumer gloom could get even worse in 2006, Knightley warned.
With price pressures remaining in check and inflation down at 1.2%, well under the official target of 2%, there remains little reason for the Bank of England to continue tightening rates at this stage. "Interest rates have peaked in the U.K. and the next move will be downwards in the spring of 2005," Knightley said. f so, this provides another excuse for investors who might have once found sterling attractive on a yield basis to stop buying. Economists at BNP Paribas believe the currency's recent break down against the dollar may well be just the start of a more serious decline. "We now expect further weakness against the dollar to target the $1.9075 area," they say. DJ



Dublin Flip 10:41 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Five!!!! He's only in for less than another four isn't he???
GWB making promises everything will be fixed during the next guys term already-LOL

Ldn 10:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush said Monday he will submit a federal budget that will cut the deficit in half in five years and maintain strict spending discipline.

"We will provide every tool and resource for our military, we will protect the homeland," Bush said. He said he would "maintain strict discipline in spending tax dollars."

Syd 10:03 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1.31-1.35 Expires Tomorrow - Sinn on ECB

Tallinn viies 10:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
basically what Im saying is keep selling out of the money O/N puts and collect the money.
this stratgey good at least until year end

Tallinn viies 09:58 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
I guess interbank boyz just realized which way it is easier to push,
no need to wonder what happens if 1,3470/80 taken out :)

panic is my middle name

Hong Kong Qindex 09:57 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

PAR 09:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Rumor of 1.9300 option protection in GBP.

Halifax CB 09:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
There's some rather nice oscillations happening on the eurusd on the 4 hourlies. For fun (not profit) I ran a convergence test on the peaks which indicates that the next peak should occur in another 16 hours or so at about the level we are now (1.3367), & 24 hours after that in the low 1.33 area; after which it's all downhill. (or at least the model breaks down there...) FWIW, these things don't ever work too well....

Ldn 09:46 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
UK Clearer & US Investment House Selling GBP

GOES B747 09:44 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 09:38 GMT // maybe you are right, but when you eating underwear comes on stake, it changes the whole picture ... do not forget that the sitting guys do not own the money they play with and somehow they will realize that ride towards 1.43-1.47 pays better from 1.2750-1.3000 ... imho

the current play is towards EUR/USD @ 1:1 and the need is to c/a and deficit numbers improving for 4 months in a row ... I think this will start taking place second half of 2005 and on; second QTR/06 will be the actual drop point of EUR/USD.

gt

SH cv 09:41 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
sorry, first time of net short for many months

SH cv 09:39 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747:
If sharks want to play today, they would rather bring EUR to 1.3580 instead. The IMM commitments show a net short EUR for many months. GT

Tallinn viies 09:38 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:35 GMT - so you think that market will drop more than 200 points during holiday lull? LOL
there are thousands of stressed corporate treasurers sitting fingers crossed just to buy euros 10 ticks under current price and 10 pips lower and 10 pips lower and so on and so on.
no way we are going to see even 1,32.
imho of course

perrie como 09:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
viis you said to eat whereever on up at near todays highs today...my was just a suggestion and the complete quote was to go below this week and under certain condition might be today too

that's all
good appetite :)

Hong Kong Qindex 09:36 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

GOES B747 09:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 09:29 GMT // sharks may bring it even lower than 1.3180 today just to see you eating the underwear of OBL, may do some TNT effect on you :)

gt

Vienna GD 09:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GEP: post your question in the forum of the gold-eagle website - lots of gold and silver bugs there - i know what i'm talking of. Or if i can get an email adress i'll post it for you.
Bat have to leave soon.

Tallinn viies 09:29 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:23 GMT - doesnt matter, mail with DHL and TNT accepted :)

Ldn 09:29 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
German think-tank IfoTuesday lowered its economic growth outlook for 2005, as exports are expected to slow and domestic demand to rise only moderately.

The Munich-based think-tank, which is one of Germany's six major research institutes, forecast real gross domestic product growth of 1.2% for 2005, after expected 1.7% GDP growth in 2004.
reuters.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:25 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The intraday indicators are unwinding from O/B area for the eur/usd pair for now look out for the 3310-20 area if support is taken then this bullish move is over for now. The 3400-10 area printed yesterday and the cycle is done for this move once that support (3310-20) is taken out the bears will be looking to test the bottom of the triangle IMHO.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3380-3400, 3440-50, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3430-40 (top of the triangle) and Support T/L 3250-60 (this is the bottom of the triangle forming)
Support is around the 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3060-80 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Syd 09:25 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
With an election coming up maybe in May, the last thing Labour want is a collapsed housing market to upset their chances for another term, and it certainly will if the Electorate find their homes 25% less in Value , even though they are that much over valued to start with !!

House prices fell at their fastest pace for 12 years in November but there are signs that potential buyers are regaining interest in the property market, a survey will say today.


GOES B747 09:23 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 09:20 GMT // the underwear on you or one from the drying machine?

gt

Tallinn viies 09:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 08:10 GMT - hahaha wishful thinking mate.
Im ready to eat my underware if we see under 1,3180 TODAY.

LDN LDN 09:18 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
UK Election Speculation GBP/USD: Breaks Below 1.9400

perrie como 09:13 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
regarding gbp/usd reversal I do see only the housing bubble exploding up there in UK showing 8 pct less in housing values and then on to loans applications calling for margins.

g/l

Ldn 09:12 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
JPMorgan believes EUR/USD will develop a 1.3470-1.3140 range this week and potentially into the new year, before the underlying bull-trend reaserts itself. However, the bank says risk at this stage is that a larger washout of positions occurs and a pullback to 1.30-1.2850 is seen, if it is, then use this to rebuild longs for a move toward 1.40-1.45 in 2005. Now at 1.3360 dj

perrie como 09:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Also both US and Europe will get slammerd heavily on stocks markets, since heard around even multinational have hard times in selling their products, as an unprecedented consumption crisis has arise. Worst than the post war one.

The number of people eating at chartities rising exponentially, while many are not anymore looking for unfindable jobs.

guess we here posting are lucky ones, even if is sad

perrie como 09:02 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
sgd seemingly the mountain is moving late

big funds are goin to cash heavily on dow, by so letting the chinese and japanese bank repartriating their equities (since they have mixed bond and equities assets with all those billions $ bought)

at extremely lower prices

maybe will be not the classic year end market

again bi

Dallas GEP 09:02 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Well eur/gbp shorts stop got snagged earlier at 6885 off a 6870 short entry for -15 but usd/jpy longs starting to work (+36) although stop had to be lowered as eur/usd was still being bullish to around that 1.3390 area. Trailing stop now at 104.25 Unable to post earlier due to an ISP problem. I have a question for you gold coin guys on the help forum when you have time.

SG 08:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
RMR of Chinese Yuan revaluation as early as Jan 2005. If so, could be bad news for the greenback, as Asian CBs are likely to unload U.S Treasuries they bought previously to support the USD.

perrie como 08:32 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
It takes some time but at the end people get smarter, so bad It happens always after elections:

Editor & Publisher - 4 hours ago
NEW YORK A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that, for the first, a majority of America have concluded that, given its costs, the conflict in Iraq is "not worth fighting.

perrie como 08:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
okidoki if not back best 2005

find me under bahrain perrie

g/l

Helsinki iw 08:25 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Agree with you como on equities to a certain degree: the volatilities there are at an extremly low level, so the market is set up for a rollercoaster ride in case it starts sliding.

perrie como 08:21 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The dollar will gain on the euro for some 4 months at least.

The Dow 10700/11000 might drop sharply ...end of year profit and smaller crash can flow only to the lowest appreciated currency we can trade, this is yen

Helsinki iw 08:17 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Even though the major resistance at 1,3475/85 is still holding, the lack of progress on the downside is disappointing.While a move lower is still quite possible, it would be a serious warning to the bears if we break the triangle resistance at 1,3430/40 and could mean that the upper resistance will not hold anymore. A clean break above 1,35 would target levels close to 1,40. In order to take some pressure of the dollar we would need to trade below the 1,3140/50 bottom from a few weeks ago. For now, I canīt see a low-risk enough trade to enter. Sights on 2005 already. IMHO.

perrie como 08:12 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
last weeks and the last one in particular big guys exhchged long term positions in between complex tradings for many billions

g/l

perrie como 08:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Tallin
wd suggest we are going much lower that 13180 e/$ within the week, maybe today already

Tallinn viies 08:08 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
buying the euros only option again to earn
as long as 1,3180 contains, I would be happy to buy on dips.
sell out some near the highs of current year.
good luck and keep buying the euro :)

perrie como 08:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
however letting away those problems regaring soul fascination..the market finally made a decent move

$ seemingly strenghtening agianst euro and some on gbp..not sure on the latter It's strenght against the euro is ended + if euro stocks would buy the london stock exchange they need to buy pounds. so do fovour euro dips against dollar and yen...

have also sought that the dow jones is fighting with It's february yearly top, and smells me if It is going to touch It or slightly break It the Dow Jones might collapse heavily and if such the case the room to strenghten I do see as an escape currency is YEN ONLY.

g/l and g/t

ps + guess if euro bunch nations will have different sights on turkey the european union might enter heavy times and so the currency

have a jazzy 2005

perrie como 07:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Aguy :) funny but guess bahrain is a sunny nice island, never been there but guess worthwhile looking...even moving might be good

regarding religions well we have in euorope problems between catholic, protestans and orthodox since the 4th crusades some 800 years ago and yet not solved..guess is not in their interest since to me seems so easily...maybe they do need little younger primates that are capabel to see in future more than into past

personally I do still miss the ancient politheism and am afraind those dictatorship gods have taken place thousands of years ago

Stockholm AGuy 07:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
perrie como 07:31 GMT:

Como, before you move to Bahrain in order to escape that dreaded influx of Muslim immigrants, you may want to look it up in a geography book... ;^)

perrie como 07:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain ...maybe I'll escape this european experiment by moving there too


Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Pres Clinton is here in Bahrain

perrie como 07:26 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
sry for posting so long but since market's so sleepy

this is somehowe old news but also in italy the northern legue protested heavily and the vote is seemingly coming on by xmax...guess euro has been sold heavily against dollar last week at chigaco futures long term players for first time since 3 years becouse of this more than that 0.25 pct the fed might increase

Turkish workers a mistake, claims Schmidt
By Hannah Cleaver in Berlin
(Filed: 25/11/2004)

Helmut Schmidt, the former German chancellor, has inflamed the country's

debate on immigration by saying that multiculturalism can only work
under
authoritarian regimes, and that bringing millions of Turkish guest
workers
to Germany was a mistake.

"The concept of multiculturalism is difficult to make fit with a
democratic
society," he told the Hamburger Abendblatt newspaper.

He added that it had been a mistake that during "the early 1960s we
brought
guest workers from foreign cultures into the country".

Mr Schmidt, 85, who was the Social Democratic chancellor from 1974 until

1982, said that the problems resulting from the influx of mostly Turkish

Gastarbeiter, or guest workers, had been neglected in Germany and the
rest
of Europe. They could be overcome only by authoritarian governments, he
added, naming Singapore as an example.

Yet many would suggest that Mr Schmidt himself was at least partly to
blame
for the problems he was raising.

Safter Cinar, a spokesman for Berlin and Brandenburg's Turkish
Association,
said that bringing people into Germany was not the mistake, but refusing
to
call it immigration and failing to implement the necessary policies was.
He
said these errors were made during Mr Schmidt's chancellorship.

"When he is talking about mistakes, he is talking about his own
mistakes,"
Mr Cinar said.

"They did not bring in the Gastarbeiter because they were feeling
generous,
it was an economic necessity.

"They may argue it was a mistake in 1973 when they put a halt on more
Gastarbeiter coming in and another in 1974 when they allowed wives and
families to join those who were here. It would have been possible, and
legally feasible, to reduce numbers, to send back those who no longer
had
work.

"But if they are allowed to bring their families, that is immigration -
and
they didn't develop policies for that. And this was when Mr Schmidt was
chancellor."

The Turkish population in Germany is the biggest outside of Turkey,
numbering 2.3 million among Germany's 82 million population. There are a

further 500,000 former Turkish citizens who have taken German
citizenship.
Germany is home to five million other non-Germans.

Mr Cinar gave warning that the discussion on integration and
multiculturalism sparked in Europe by the murder in Holland of Theo van
Gogh, and the resulting deterioration in community relations, was being
carried out in a manner likely to alienate young Muslims more than ever.

"The way that people are talking about it could well encourage young
migrants to embrace Turkish nationalism and even Islamic extremism - or
worse, both at the same time," he said.

"These are people who are born in Germany and only know Turkey from a
couple
of weeks holiday there, but are regarded in Germany as foreigners and
disruptive elements. If they are assumed to be that way they will
eventually
decide to embrace it.

"Multiculturalism is not an option, it's not an ideology or a concept,
it is
a reality. We have many different cultures living in the same society
and we
have to do that with mutual respect."

Mr Cinar said that there were some values and concepts which should be
taken
as universal, and there were some people and groups which did not
respect
them.

"But not respecting those universal values is not a result of a
multicultural society," he said.

Syd 07:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Dollar May End Drop; Lacker Suggests Interest Rates to Increase Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may halt yesterday's drop to near the lowest in a week versus the euro after Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said tame inflation may not stop the bank raising interest rates.

``We may still need to move the fed funds rate fairly often,'' Lacker said yesterday, signaling the benchmark rate may rise further next year above its European counterpart. President George W. Bush said he's serious about cutting the fiscal deficit, pledging a ``tough budget'' to send a signal to financial markets that sold the dollar to a record low on Dec. 7.

``Extended gains in U.S. rates may well put a brake on the dollar's weakness,'' said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of the treasury and foreign exchange division in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Securities Co. ``As Bush shows his increased determination to tackle the deficits, that also undermines confidence in selling the dollar -- a strategy that has proved successful these days.''

Against the euro, the dollar was unchanged at $1.3395 at 8:38 a.m. in Tokyo from late yesterday in New York, according to EBS, an electronic foreign-exchange dealing system. The U.S. currency was at 104.12 yen from 104.10.

``Real, inflation-adjusted, interest rates must vary over time as economic fundamentals change, even without visible perturbations in inflation prospects,'' Lacker told the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce yesterday.



Bahrain Within 10 Pips 07:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
doing this for a while

Curren Short Long Short _Stop Long_Stop TrendShort TrendLong
EURUSD 1.3415 1.3366 1.3450 1.3325 Hold Hold
USDJPY 104.08 103.65 104.42 103.33 Sell Buy
GBPUSD 1.9493 1.9415 1.9546 1.9357 Hold Hold
USDCHF 1.1516 1.1463 1.1557 1.1427 Hold Buy
EURCHF 1.5400 1.5369 1.5419 1.5350 Hold Buy
AUDUSD 0.7692 0.7654 0.7720 0.7622 Hold Buy
USDCAD 1.2302 1.2248 1.2350 1.2211 Hold Buy
NZDUSD 0.7157 0.7113 0.7190 0.7080 Hold Hold
EURGBP 0.6891 0.6873 0.6902 0.6862 Sell Hold
EURJPY 139.34 138.88 139.61 138.60 Hold Hold
GBPJPY 202.50 201.77 202.98 201.32 Hold Buy
CHFJPY 90.55 90.20 90.75 89.99 Hold Hold
GBPCHF 2.2388 2.2314 2.2435 2.2271 Hold Buy
EURAUD 1.7483 1.7406 1.7537 1.7361 Sell Hold
EURCAD 1.6474 1.6398 1.6530 1.6355 Hold Buy
AUDCAD 0.9439 0.9382 0.9471 0.9348 Hold Buy
AUDJPY 79.89 79.48 80.11 79.21 Hold Hold

lon jr 07:06 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Re cable...there buying interest every day this week for good amount at midday fix..however, shud the euro find a top, feel cable cud come down a long long way...looks like brown has struggled to get taxes in, there appears to be a hole...and with the rise in public spending, rumours of further tax rises, i think the cable can struggle (in effect just as the doll has) for the same reasons..public wont spend, debt linked to house valuations, uk govt debt..short term we need another break 19350 to gain momentum

London 07:06 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Why bargain-hunters can smell blood
SHOPPERS are scenting blood as desperate stores brought forward their January sales yesterday in the hope of heading off a disastrous Christmas slump
http://www.thisislondon.com/news/business/articles/timid396529?source=

LA fxnew 06:59 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
hi all ...
any idea about gbp/usd today?

Thank u!

London. 06:53 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
House prices drop again
House prices in the UK fell further last month as interest rate hikes took their toll.
About 48% more chartered surveyors reported lower rather than higher prices in the three months to November according to the latest housing market survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors It represented the biggest number reporting falls in 12 years, the RICS said.
LES

London. 06:18 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
No seasonal lift for house market
Fewer people are venturing onto the property market, data shows
A swathe of figures have provided further evidence of a slowdown in the UK property market.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML), British Bankers Association (BBA) and Building Societies Association (BSA) all said mortgage lending was slowing.
CML figures showed gross lending fell by 4% in November as the number of people buying new homes fell.
Elsewhere, the BBA added underlying mortgage lending rose by £4m in November, compared to October's £4.29m.
The CML said that loans for new property purchases fell 25% year-on-year to 85,000 - the lowest total seen since February 2003.
LINK

la fxt 06:07 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
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Ldn 05:49 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Japan exporters unlikely active sellers at current USD/JPY levels as many have offers lined up in 105s, 106s, says non-Japan bank trader,there's no rush to sell in the 104s its likely to find support from importer dj

Ldn 05:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
censored Picks Currencies of Taiwan, Singapore and India as Favorites for 2005

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies_asia.html

Sydney 05:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The Australian government Tuesday slashed its economic growth forecast out to next June, blaming sluggish exports and a cooling housing sector. Releasing the government's midyear economic outlook review, Treasurer Peter Costello also signalled a benign outlook for inflation and wages growth, an environment likely to take pressure off interest rates.
Costello said the economy is now on target to grow by 3.0% in the year to June 30, 2005, well down from a forecast 3.5% issued as recently as September just as the national election was getting underway. Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan noted that Treasury's inflation forecasts are now below the Reserve Bank's forecast, suggesting interest rates may remain on hold at 5.25% well into 2005.
ABC

Sydney 05:01 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The Australian government Tuesday slashed its economic growth forecast out to next June, blaming sluggish exports and a cooling housing sector. Releasing the government's midyear economic outlook review, Treasurer Peter Costello also signalled a benign outlook for inflation and wages growth, an environment likely to take pressure off interest rates.
Costello said the economy is now on target to grow by 3.0% in the year to June 30, 2005, well down from a forecast 3.5% issued as recently as September just as the national election was getting underway. Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan noted that Treasury's inflation forecasts are now below the Reserve Bank's forecast, suggesting interest rates may remain on hold at 5.25% well into 2005.
ABC

wellington am 04:36 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
hi all. nice to see my call on ozzy/kiwi finally coming together. long way further to go on this pair. i'm no trained economist, but there's noway our wee currency can beat the ozzy given we have to repatriate millions of dollars in profits and interest rates to their corporations and banks.

Let me see now: The 4 big banks (ASB, NAB, BNZ, ANZ), most private power companies, our railway and ferry services, a large chunk of telecommunications, our major papers and tv companies (ok ozzy or us owned) - and the list goes on.

staying long ozzy/kiwi.

gold coast martin 04:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 04:22 GMT December 21, 2004
Good afternoon/goodmorning..fwiw....aud has reached the end of the catch up run to the euro....fundamentally the aussie has been capped to stay under 7750-78...look for a top of 7714 with a bottom of 7447 prior to the end of the silly season...medium to long term term aud like the kiwi has a downward bias....g/t

...GOOD TRADES TO EVERYONE

Sing GD 04:11 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP finding some resistance above 1.95 many repeated failures.

But dips getting shallower so suggests breakout imment ..

Merry Christmas eveyone and a Happy New Tear ..

Sydney E.M. 03:50 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino not sure if your around, do you have any info on the IMM aud longs curious if profit taking will take place pre xmas with this run up taking on more longs.

Syd 03:40 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
AUD slightly firmer in afternoon, but trying to find fundamental reasons for move in pre-holiday environment not easy. underperformed overnight, perhaps playing catch up today, AUD/USD wedged in 0.7600-0.7700 range for rest of week probably .
Deutsche Bank.

gold coast martin 03:37 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
melbourne 2nite 03:16 GMT December 21, 2004
gold coast Martin 0309
Thanks for the reminder - 'since the beginning of 2003' - that the forex ship turns slowly. after 2 years would be reasonable for the aud bears to have their day too. symphathy to some of our comrades at NAB who couldn't last that long. GT

...Sympathy to the nab guys is long overdue...more than people know....classic case of scapegoat syndrome used by large company in order to limit damage control and preserve share value...but thats for another time...true storry will be publicly revealed one day.....g/t

Ldn 03:24 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Anyone CBs in if currencies get unorderly near xmas, a few checking of prices can cause a whole lot of damage

Syd 03:22 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
(AP)New Zealand's current-account deficit ballooned to its widest in at least 17 years in the 12 months through September, stoking worries that the local dollar will fall and the central bank will be forced to keep interest rates high, the current-account gap expanded to 5.8% of gross domestic product in the period from a revised 4.8% of GDP for the 12 months through June,the gap could widen to 7% or even 8% of GDP in the coming year, economists said.

Atl TJ 03:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: A little divergence is creeping in the USDJPY. Not very strong thogh. Waiting for confirmation

melbourne 2nite 03:16 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
gold coast Martin 0309
Thanks for the reminder - 'since the beginning of 2003' - that the forex ship turns slowly. after 2 years would be reasonable for the aud bears to have their day too. symphathy to some of our comrades at NAB who couldn't last that long. GT

sing s 03:13 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin tks

gold coast martin 03:09 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
sing s 03:00 GMT December 21, 2004
Good post Sing....this has been the scenario since the beginning of 2003....hope it opens the eyes of traders who still hold a view of the aud at 80 levels (non-sustainable)...g/t

sing s 03:00 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The Australian Economy Is In Trouble
The run of economic data of late is confirming the long held contrarian view here that the domestic economy is vulnerable, and that high commodity prices and an end to the drought would do little to improve the trade deficit.

The housing boom is long gone, property values are on the way down, retail sales are softening quickly, and still credit is increasing. This increase in credit will probably be seen in hindsight at some point as the last hurrah, just before quite a significant economic slow down, and crash for the currency.

There is no doubt the RBA will have to cut rates next year. Their ridiculous policy, and no that is not too harsh a term, is causing the trade deficit by attracting speculative foreign capital driving our currency beyond all reasonable estimates of correct fundamental value which is probably 64 cents, and at the same time triggering a hard landing for the housing industry and property prices. The risk is that property prices begin to accelerate downwards in coming months. The impact on consumption is already starting, but is only embryonic compared to what is to come.

All this driven by what are extraordinarily high rates by global central bank standards, and at a time when inflation, the supposed reason for high rates is at historic lows. One might ask if the central bank knows what it is doing. This is not a function of hindsight. There are a few of us in the Australian market who have been suggesting this is what will happen all year.

The broader market seems more interested in staying on the RBA?s good list. This may be a function of the Australian market still being quite small by global standards and the interest major banks have in the business that can be done with the RBA, or not. In any case few economists in Australia have been willing to highlight the ridiculously high domestic rate settings. This lack of robust debate regarding RBA policy is a significant danger.

The rest of the world learnt several years ago that inflation does not operate in the same way as it did in the last century. The RBA still seems to function on previous century beliefs. Well the world is round, and inflation is dead.

That is why when the US had an 8% plus quarter it still maintained historically low rates, and is only now about to get back to 2%. Why are Australian rates so high? Only out of old world false fears about inflation, and only out of a late attempt to moderate the housing boom. Too much too late, and now property prices are at significant risk.

A grim picture perhaps, but it can be surprising how fast an economy can turn, and this RBA has set us up for quite a quick down turn.


Australian Dollar Break Down
The US dollar continues to consolidate, and today is probably the last day of the USD upward correction. If against the Yen it can get back above 103.70 it may see 104.20 104.50 the next 24 hours, before falling back to new lows. Against Europe the USD bounce is less firm, and more likely a sideways consolidation rather than further USD bounce. By the end of the week fresh USD lows are quite possible.

Meanwhile the AUD is showing signs of the real fundamental picture coming back into play. The weight of the current account and trade deficits really is unbearable as it has proved to be the case for the US dollar.

The confusion or challenge on the AUD comes from the likely continued weakness of the USD. Previously in this falling US dollar environment the AUD was a stand out beneficiary due to the attractiveness of high yields. That is not going to last much longer however. Expect rate cuts in 2005. This would be an obvious signal to all those global longs to start selling, but they probably will not wait for that.

There are already price action signs as we alluded to yesterday that are suggesting the AUD linkage to the major currencies, Euro and Yen, may already be fracturing. In which case when the world which is busy selling the USD for its high current account deficit, takes a look at the Australian dollar where the situation is arguably worse, and where foreign policy has made just as many friends as the US has of late, well to put it simply the selling could be phenomenal.

The Australian dollar is at the edge of the most significant collapse of its history. The speed could be astonishing. This is because there is only one fundamental factor that is bullish, overly high rates. Everything else is bearish, especially the dismal trade performance in dare I say a target rich environment.

The AUD may hold in there, but if it does not rally in the next couple of days as the USD falls again as is expected, then the AUD could become the world?s weakest currency for quite a while.

Technically the early warning has already been triggered by the move below 78 cents. Unless it recovers resistance at .7825 by the end of the week, it is going south in a big way. The medium term target over 3-6 months would be 62 cents.

The AUD at the moment is a little like the foal that has wandered from the herd. The predators are stalking. Will it realise its mistake and run back to the safety of the herd, or will it linger just that moment too long,

Three cheers for independent commentators, some one has to say it!
Clifford Bennett, FxMax

London... 02:52 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Former National Australia Bank currency options desk trader David Bullen said he will defend himself against charges laid by the corporate regulator.

Mr Bullen said he is facing 20 charges, including one of obtaining financial advantage by deception, following the $360 million rogue trading scandal at NAB in January.
( AAP )

melbourne farmacia 02:48 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT - no view.

melbourne farmacia 02:39 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney E.M. - Yeah.. Thatís my point; don't expect much counter rally strength until 83.50 +

Singapore Sfx 02:38 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

Cheers OMIL. And all the best to you this festive season and always.

Sydney E.M. 02:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
pity censored dont have the index on the ticker

NJ RT 02:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
No problem. Thanks. melbourne farmacia, any thoughts?

Sydney E.M. 02:28 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT not watching it at moment sorry.

NJ RT 02:25 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney E.M.: Any thoughts about AUD/CAD ? Thank you.

Sydney E.M. 02:21 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia we are at about 81.67 at the moment I think thats correct . thanks

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:20 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Aud/usd resistance extends from 7680 to 7700 area. Hello Farmacia I am sure we will find out how the market feels about it if resistance holds for the next day. Thanks for the information mate hope you are well. GT

melbourne farmacia 02:16 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney E.M. - Break above 83.50 index should encourage a respectable short covering rally IMO. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:15 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Aud/usd is testing the resistance (7680-90) now if broken will add to the position as the triangle is being defined in this thin market conditions. Eur/usd printed and tested the 3400-10 area but the bulls are not thru with this pair yet as the intraday indicators go into the O/B levels in my charts IMHO. GL GT

SFX good to have you back hope you had a great vacation.

Singapore Sfx 02:11 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Cheers fxq. I tried checking a few sites as well. Cudnt find the dates. And the words "State of the Union" on Google only get mention of the movie and its box office collections...

Think as EM mentioned though, might be when the market tries to take a look at what GWB has to say about the deficits and in turn the USD.

Good luck.

dc fxq 02:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Actually it will probably be Jan 25th, screwed up getting the 2004 date NOT 2005. Cud be 17th also but I am not sure as it is not on the WH website as a fixed engagment.

Apologies!

Syd 01:57 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
(AP)China's High-Octane Economy Shifts Into Slower Gear

Syd 01:54 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
NZD positions said to be reduced due to worsening data.

Singapore Sfx 01:47 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, fxq. appreciate.

btw, any tips for the oscars then ?

Sydney E.M. 01:44 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 01:31 btw have not got a clue

SH cv 01:43 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi ShangHai bc,

I read some of your posts, you look like professional player. I am quite new, also live in SH, wish I could learn from you someday.

what's your view on USD/JPY?

TIA

Sydney E.M 01:43 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq look again

dc fxq 01:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Oops, got it wrong, Singapore asking Sydney. But hte primciple is the same.

dc fxq 01:42 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Interesting that someone in Sydney would ask someone in Shanghia when the US President makes his State of the Union address.

I might well ask a Serbian who will be on the Queen's honor list this year.

FWIW probably Jan 27th,

LoL

Sydney E.M. 01:35 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc I would like your advice , some in the market are calling for a dollar rally near term but many say its already happened , I wonder what camp you are in ?

Singapore Sfx 01:31 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Sydney E.M. 01:14 - Hi, Could you or anyone else tell me when the State of the Union address is pls ? tia

shanghai bc 01:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

EM -- Good morning..I guess Oil is building a medium-term floor and commodities will follow too..There is no way we can solve this Oil crisis unless we find an alternative or China and India stops industrialization..For the foresseable future,betting on commodities on decent dips is still a money making bet of the decade..Good trades..

Ldn 01:30 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
below USD/CAD bullish

Ldn 01:29 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
CAD short-term bullish, targeting at least 1.2682, based on technical analysis , continues to look constructive after recent break above 55-day moving average
Citigroup

Ldn 01:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Citigroup- short-term bullish held good support at 103.40, though there's resistance at 105.86-105.90 area ,clear break would imply further rise above 108.00
Citigroup

ny amc 01:27 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai...........i was just curious. How long have you been trading forex ? Thanks for answering and the best of luck to you and your family in the coming new year.

shanghai bc 01:24 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

AMC -- Good morning..I make a living by buying low and sellling high most curencies..And by collecting rents from tenants..Sounds like a rotten capitalist..Season's greetings to you..

ny amc 01:17 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai........If you dont mind me asking I was wondering what is it that you do for a living. I read and learn quite a bit from your posts so I would like to say Thanks and please keep them coming.

Sydney E.M. 01:14 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
JPY may rise as high as 107 by Jan. 31, key factors include whether President Bush pledges to reduce U.S. budget deficit in State of Union, budget addresses early next year. Hedge funds will likely resume USD selling after Christmas holidays, but players become more wary of yen selling interventions and increasingly aware of outlook for further U.S. rate hikes vs Japan's inability to end zero interest rate policy anytime soon.Mitsuru Sahara UFJ Bank;

Shanghai BC do where do you see commodity currencies with that view in mind thank you.

shanghai bc 01:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   

China has slowed down to 9% GDP this year and likely to slow down to the same level next year as well..The targeted 7% GDP may not be met next year either..With eventual big correction to come before the decade is over..

Ltn th 01:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Report of Costellos speech is worth a carefull read and archiving. As developments and new policy announcements are made during the year it can be re-read.
Suspect that policies to do with petroleum royalties that were proposed for election time, but not needed are still in reserve for later. So some of the extra in the 6.2 bi surplus up by 900 mi from election time is likely to be spent to further improve competitiveness of fuel dependant sectors as well as appeasing the environmentally concerned and farm sector.

wellington 01:05 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
WELLINGTON (AP)--Islamic extremists with links to international terror groups are believed to be using New Zealand as a safe haven, the nation's top spy agency warned Tuesday

Syd 00:56 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
Size of speculative JPY shorts in market now largest among major currencies (1.7 times bigger than daily average of past year) risks of short-covering rebound in JPY vs other units. Market has USD shorts 1.3 times larger than part year average. Mirroring its recent resurgence, EUR "longs" 0.8 times larger.
JPMorgan report

Sydney E.M. 00:45 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
AUS ECON: Nov New Car Sales Slide 3.1%, Worst Since Dec 03

Ldn 00:34 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
U.K. house prices slumped again in November as the number of estate agents reporting a fall reached its lowest level for 12 years,
The RICS survey house price balance in the three months to November fell to -48, from -41 in October, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The fall in prices was much larger than expected by economists predictions of -37.5
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

Syd 00:10 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
The Australian government expects gross domestic product to grow 3.0% in the year ending June 30, 2005, compared with its forecast of 3.5% given in September,
outlook for inflation is benign and that unemployment is likely to flatten out around 5.5% over the medium term ,data
closely aligned with market view that growth slowing, suggesting rates will remain on hold for some time in 2005.

mongolia fakkim 00:08 GMT December 21, 2004 Reply   
DON'T DO ANYTHING

 




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