Forex Forum Archive for 12/23/2004

Canberra 23:49 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd 23:28 GMT December 23, 2004

Wouldn't surprise me based on this:

gold coast martin 16:03 GMT December 1, 2004
This is the reason why I have been adding euro shorts since 129......g/t

ltn th 23:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Syd. How does this appeal to you?

worcester js 23:30 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
anyone have a list or know of any prop trading firms?

Syd 23:28 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   

Gold Coast Martin now what are you getting upto Bored again !!

GOLD COAST, Australia (AP)--A man who said he had hostages and explosives barricaded himself in a hotel room in a busy tourist resort on Australia's east coast,. Queensland state police said officers who made contact with the 43-year-old man hadn't been able to confirm whether he had hostages or explosives.
However, Gold Coast Inspector told Australian Broadcasting Corp. said officials were confident there were explosive devices in the room.The man sealed himself into a room on the 13th floor of an apartment block on Australia's popular Gold Coast resort strip Thursday night. Officers evacuated three floors above and below the room where the man was holed up and cordoned off streets around the building.

SAIHAT Right & happy new year & second 23:13 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
may work may not

1.3461 BUY
1.1474 SELL
0.7657 BUY
1.2359 SELL
1.9197 BUY
103.86 SELL

Syd 23:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
RBA will be erring on side of easing next year as shown by bond price action in the past few weeks with bond yields below cash. The first indication that RBA could ease would be a significant slowdown in job creation, currently running at reasonable 2.6% pace. "With household budgets overextended and accordingly low private sector savings, any signs that households' ability to service accrued debt will soften will probably encourage central bank to adopt an easing bias," with growth surprises next year likely to be to the downside, arguing for AUD underperform in 2005.
NAB Report.

Hard to take NAB seriously these days after there
$50m finale to annus horribilis

london tb 22:56 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
dollar will go lower against gbp wait till new year before you sell

Syd 22:31 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Talk from some Dollar Bears TD securities Stephen koukoules for one is hypercritical when you consider sterling /Aud/Kiwi is in the same situation with smaller economies, its obviously in the interest of these institutions to be bearish as they are positioned for it and until the Fed do something to knock them out they will just continue the media is feeding the frenzy for now

Bah Bahrain1 22:09 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London21.32GMT/// Yes mate very thin market, seems I have to close my book2 :-) Have a great night, bye for now.

London. 21:32 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Bah Bahrain1 The movement we are seeing is pure noise due to the thin market , virtually all books are closed

Ltn th 21:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC 20:28 GMT December 23, 2004 You said:-
"
GBP, AUD and NZD are between 10% to 20% overvalued against USD presently......"

What criteria are you using for this? Some forms of yield in m/t or something either more specialised or nebulous?
Not challenging your statement but genuinely interested because it conflicts with my assesment on m/t & l/t readily achievable returns.

San Diego DC 21:24 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco TG:

This is in regards to our recent discussion about the stock market and Nasdaq. Since the time cycle date of 25th is a holiday, looking at the chart of Nasdaq today, all indications are that this time cycle will be a continuing bullish cycle, unless Monday 27th NYClose shows reversal which is less likely at this point. The next time cycle to watch out is around Dec 30th followed by Jan3-4th.

Bah Bahrain1 21:22 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London, Iain15.26GMT///Hi...Yes agree with...I don't see much up for the euro from here(1.35s)...think top will be 1.3650 and the will see BIG correction.

TIP OF THE WEEK: Don't miss selling the euros if seen above 1.3600...this euro will move sharply lower within few days.

Good luck to u all and HAPPY NEW YEAR on advance.

Syd 21:08 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
In the last 4months the Dollar has fallen 11% against the Euro !!

Syd 21:05 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
FRANKFURT (AP)--The German soccer federation warned potential spectators Thursday against buying World Cup tickets from unauthorized agents, saying they could be prevented from entering stadiums for the matches.
The DFB, which is especially fearful of fraud on the Internet, won a court ruling Thursday that it hopes is the first step to limiting ticket problems for the 2006 World Cup, which Germany will host.

Not FX but worth a mention

Syd 21:03 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Enrico Caruso, chief dealer at Tempest Asset Management in Newport Beach, Calif. said Thursday's movement was clearly a technical drive by a group of investors to test the $1.35 level at a time when low liquidity meant resistance would be weaker. Still, he said there would be some caution among traders.
"Liquidity is key right now, and it's giving some guys more ammo to take the market where they want it to go," he said.

Mtl JP 20:52 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
ACC 20:28 / China says no change now in yuan policy (Reuters Wed December 22, 2004 01:35 AM ET)

"(Reuters) - China said on Wednesday that it is not changing its currency policy for now despite intensifying market speculation that it could do so before the end of the year.

"This is a market rumour," a central bank spokesman said when asked about the speculation in offshore currency markets. "At present there is no change in the exchange rate policy."

That should be re-assuring - at least at present and till year end . Or do you think the red-ones are up to something no-good ?

Hollywood Agent 20:49 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT December 23, 2004
Hmmm...well I wouldn't mind eating some underwear if Angela Jolie was wearing them at the time!!!!! LOL

Angie doesn't date paper traders!!

Antwerp Tom 20:43 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
ACC As far as i know Buffett shorted the USD against several currencies some months ago or has he reversed in the meantime?

Balzano PA 20:29 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Sterling has been weak not through poor fundamentals versus the US Dollar. The recent tuble is GBP, against the USD is due to the strenghtening of the Euro. The Source is long-term demand from Portofolio Diversification and thus the Euro's rise is not due to speculative trades. Going to be very hard stopping this higher move upwards.

Sydney ACC 20:28 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
It is my contention that we are living in dangerous times.
The Bush Administration is eager for the Chinese to float the reminibi. Diplomacy hasn't worked. So now they are using the markets.
The markets will force the Chinese to act.
Treasury Secretary Snow comes out with the line about respect for markets and the the ability of the aforementioned to accurately set values. What a load of codswallop!
Markets overshoot constantly on teh upside and downside.
FX markets will not singularly redress the US deficits.
GBP, AUD and NZD are between 10% to 20% overvalued against USD presently.
When China acts, watch out for the big fall in EUR and others as the hot money is repatriated.
Recall which way Buffet is sitting.

Until Chinese move enjoy the ride.

Syd 20:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps not such a "Gooday mate". The CRB Index has been showing increasingly volatile action of late, suggestive of a very real possibility that its three-year uptrend is in the throws of unraveling

London. 20:09 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC exactly right (buyer beware)

London. 20:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
mks london your talking cra.p

London. 20:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
mks london your talking cra.p

mks london 19:49 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
buy anything against $

mks london 19:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
after some days Eur13500 will be history & its not far eur & £ will be same value

San Diego DC 19:40 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:27 GMT December 23, 2004

willthe EUR/USD rise more or will slide down

Rise more.

Sydney ACC 19:31 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London. 19:19 GMT December 23, 2004
The fundamental concerns over Sterling are likely to increase slightly with the deteriorating current account trend adding to the concerns over the budget deficit - highest figure for over 5 years......

and Australia's C/A deficit is 6.5% of GDP while that of New Zealand is 7.2%.

Amman wfakhoury 19:27 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
willthe EUR/USD rise more or will slide down..

London. 19:19 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
The fundamental concerns over Sterling are likely to increase slightly with the deteriorating current account trend adding to the concerns over the budget deficit - highest figure for over 5 years LINK

London. 19:12 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
FRANCE
Dollar fall could turn 'catastrophic'
Posted Thu, 23 Dec 2004

French Finance Minister Herve Gaymard said on Thursday that the fall of the dollar could become "catastrophic" in world terms.

The United States "absolutely" had to understand at a G7 meeting of finance ministers from leading industrialised countries in February that "coordinated" international management was needed, he said during a visit to a General Motors factory here.

If we stay in the current situation, it's possible to imagine a catastrophic situation at world level, for the Europeans who have an over-valued currency, for the Asians who hold assets in dollars and for the Americans because long-term interest rates will rise," said Gaymard.

Referring to the "interpenetration" of economies, he said that "today many jobs in the United States depend on the good health of European groups".

Gaymard said that the G7 meeting in London in February was important. "It is absolutely necessary that at this meeting our American friends understand that coordinated management is needed at the international level," he said.

The minister said he hoped that the problem would be recognised more quickly than had been the case when the dollar slumped at the beginning of the 1980s.

"It is not possible to do something if the triangle of Europe, the United States and Asia does not act together in close coordination," he said.

A statement by the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers on exchange rate issues had been "very important", he said. "We are following the matter with great attention and concern."

The Eurogroup, in a statement at the beginning of December, had urged leading countries to take all "appropriate" measures to reduce those world economic imbalances which were causing the dollar to fall and the euro to rise.

Gaymard said that the French government was studying arrangements for French companies suffering from the currency situation.

He said that the biggest French companies had hedged their currency positions to reduce the effects of sharp exchange rates.

"But for smaller ones, we have to see what can be done in the way of a mechanism for mutualising risk. We are going to work on this in the next few weeks."

AFP

GER ad 18:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Matha 18:19 GMT
Eur/Usd,
"never" will be less than 10 days IMHO

Halifax CB 18:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Re USDCAD - my entry at 1.2315 didn't get filled, as I moved it down 30 pips (having to be away for awhile). If it had been filled, I'd probably close it, there still seems to be a significant downside to USDCAD, and given it's past behaviour it'll meander around for awhile before moving up again. GL/GT

Tokyo Matha 18:19 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd, you never come back to 1.33?

Los Angeles ss 18:12 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
TEST

Dallas GEP 17:35 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain I think that possie could work very well (CHF short from 1.1460,,,stop I think should be around 1.1475 ask. What is your view????

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:51 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW key target (3570) for eur/usd and main target (3760) are now in the radar for the bulls. These are targets crudely calculated from the triangle breakout. New motto for next year in the forex market is (ride the train (trend) till the wheels fall off).

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:38 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
chf shorting at 1.1460 pt 1.12

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:32 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd has reached the main target area (3500-30) now acting as resistance and holding there for now. Support will be found around the 3440-50 area for now. The indicators are in O/B area and a pull back is favored although I have no intraday sell signal in my system yet. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 16:30 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:30 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.3323 - 1.3510 and the mid-point reference is 1.3417.


... // {1.3323}* - 1.3370 - 1.3417 - 1.3463 - 1.3510* // ...

SanFrancisco Rudolf The Red Nosed Trader 16:30 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
st 16:22 - Putin is rumoured to have the same preference.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:23 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Next 24 Hours short 1.9412 for cable PT at 1.8850

houston st 16:22 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- my daughter worked on the film "Mr. and Mrs. Jones" and one of her errands while waiting around was to go and buy a particular pair of thong underwear for Ms. Jolie...she only wears a certain kind...lol...

mysore forexveda 16:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Bottom picking could be dangerous this month. I am selling my farm to buy dollar/swiss at 1.1200 if seen around 4 th jan 2005.

Antwerp Tom 16:20 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP the question is: where did Sharon Stone's underwear go?
Catherine Zeta-Jones says Michael Douglas doesn't have it.

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
ST. if euro breaks you may be right

Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm...well I wouldn't mind eating some underwear if Angela Jolie was wearing them at the time!!!!! LOL

houston st 16:17 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- think we might see the Jan04 high again on eurstg...pair still in 5day bull channel...good luck and good holiday to you.

Antwerp Tom 16:15 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
viies, congrats! and you won't have to eat your underwear...:-)

Hong Kong Qindex 16:12 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/USD : The kay quantized level (22/12) of 22-day cycle is located at 1.3599 and the 44-day cycle is positioning at 1.3404. The mid-point reference of 1.3404 and 1.3599 is 1.3502.

Dallas GEP 16:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Well as you know I have shorted twice already and I have 7022 average but if I was entering a NEW possie I would enter at 7038-7040 area with 15 pip stop

Philadelphia Caba 16:03 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, will you short eurgbp at 0.7030-0.7040? Thanks.

GOES B747 16:03 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
viies ... hats off !!!
one of the best I ever seen !!!
wish I was with your camp :)

now, keep us informed when you start pulling down !!!


g/t

Dallas GEP 16:01 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
took profit @ 1.3505 on 1.3485 longs for +20 on Euro

prague viktor 16:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies ....ur the man of the day mate G/T

HK Kevin 15:49 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
The t/p of this triangle breakout is 1.3550. Save your bullet here
Tallinn viies. your are wonderful. My short from 1.3384 covered half at 1.3368 and half stop loss at 1.3431.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
long euro now @ 1.3485

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:33 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Cable/yen might go up

jkt-aye 15:28 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Good call Viies re:EUR. just short at 1.3495 stp 1.3535 for 1.3455. If swept out, will re-enter at 1.3570 stp 1.3615 tgt open.

London Iain 15:26 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Bah Bahrain1 14:54 GMT December 23, 2004

i'm looking at the same wave count. i think 1.4000 might be seen jan/feb, then 1.1000 by year end and then higher into '06/'07. by then we'll probably be looking at 1.60odd, but it's too early to make specific predictions before we see a) this current top and b) next years forecasted low..

one hinderence to this tech analysis is concerted intervention (which would work - seen posts saying the opposite), which may come in the years ahead, but NOT this coming year IMO.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Barriers


... // 1.3500 - 1.3534 - 1.3577 // ...

Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
hmmm...Could be CABA I thoughyt 15:15 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 15:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
sg tpe 15:19 GMT - Not yet.

Tallinn viies 15:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
all right boyz n galz
leaving the building ...
left order to take half of my profits at 1,3509. its good only today. tommorow my target is 1,3560/70.
bi

sg tpe 15:19 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks. Mr Qindex.
So Sir, does that mean you are postphoning your euro tgt at 1.31++ tgt at end of mth. thanks

San Diego DC 15:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$

Measured move in Time:

On a 60 min chart if you count the # of bars in the accumulation pattern prior to the break out, ther are about 17 bars. So for a measured move, there is high probability for this trend to continue for atleast 17 bars after the break out. Right now, we have 12 bars after the breakout, so we have atleast 5 more hours for this to continue IMHO. At the end of the 17 bars usually there is either a distribution or a reaccumulation pattern which determines the next phase.

Measured move in Price:
The accumulation area mentioned above has a price range of about 70 pips (1.3410-1.3340). So, the estimated price projections (areas)would be
1.3410+ 70 pips = 1.3480
1.3480+ 70 pips = 1.3550 etc.

Sometimes half of 70 pips would also serve as price target. Time is more important than price.

This is all in the context of the bigger picture time cycle which is due Dec 25th where we figure if the direction is continuing or reverse/sideways.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:14 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
sg tpe 15:11 GMT - The bull has an upper hand at this moment. My weekly cycle is still holding 1.3500 barrier.

Philadelphia Caba 15:13 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:10 GMT December 23, 2004
OK guys that 1.35 option expires in 6 minutes...I think we may get a punch thru the 1.35 level THEN

I think that option expired at 15:00 GMT....

sg tpe 15:11 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
hi. Mr Qindex. is euro drawing nearer to your quantised level at 1.37 now with euro at 1.3485 abv yr mid pt. Thanks

Dallas GEP 15:10 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
OK guys that 1.35 option expires in 6 minutes...I think we may get a punch thru the 1.35 level THEN

Bah Bahrain1 15:06 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
tapsep.com (if this is easier).

Hong Kong Qindex 15:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:06 GMT December 19, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : There are two key quantized levels and are located at 1.3191 and 1.3705. The mid-point reference of 1.3191 - 1.3705 is 1.3448.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:57 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.2780* - 1.2883 // 1.2986 - 1.3089 - {1.3191}* - 1.3294 - 1.3397 - 1.3500 - 1.3602* - {1.3705} // 1.3808 - 1.3911 - 1.4013* ...

Bah Bahrain1 14:55 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
test

Bah Bahrain1 14:54 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi frnds, hope all fine with you,
Yesterday I saw a report saying that euro from 1.3500/1.3600 level will move down to 1.1500, maybe even1.100...and then next year(2006) this euro will move up again..they are targeting 1.7000???? Good luck to u all.

Rockford BDR 14:51 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London
Why would they take off a week day to celebrate a holiday thats already on a day they have off?

jkt-aye 14:51 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Thank you guys. GL & GT.

Van jv 14:50 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
U of Mich. 97.1/ 92.8/

Halifax CB 14:50 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP - USDCAD always seems to do this; spike way up, drift way down. It did this on the way down, and it'll probably do it on the way up & travelling sideways as well..I have a buy order in at 2315, which I put in once the spike had retraced maybe 30 pips; it wouldn't surprise me at all to have it picked up today or tomorrow...

London Iain 14:46 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
boxing day is sunday, but both monday and tuesday are bank holidays here to make up for xmas and b/day..

slv sam 14:45 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
I think we see 1.27..but sometime in 2005!

Mtl JP 14:35 /
Frankly I was not expecting such strong euro today so far...was expecting a touch of 1.3470 and imediate strong pull back. Now euro seems to be heading to high 30s and soon...accordingly and if so...cad most likely will loose 600-800 pips within short time..aimho!GT

dc fxq 14:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
In the US its the day you "box up" all that stuff you got and really hate to exchange for something you want.

London GLB 14:42 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
boxing day= St. Stephens day :->

jkt-aye 14:39 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
what is boxing day ???

Livingston nh 14:39 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanx fxq -

dc fxq 14:36 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
closed Monday for Christmas and Tuesday for Boxing day.

dc fxq 14:36 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:29 GMT

based on what? That sterling GDP number this am?

Livingston nh 14:36 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
IS London closed for Boxing Day on Monday?

Mtl JP 14:35 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
sam 14:29 / 1.27 now out of radar ?

Halifax CB 14:32 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Re eurousd - I think the best tech guidance is just the weeklies around this time last year; choppy action from the last week or two of December/2003 - including a number of new highs. The highest high before the decline occurred in the week immidialy prior to the decline, which lasted 4 months, and took 1200pips off the eurusd. There's a similar pattern in early summer of 2003. It took maybe five weeks from the first down week in mid December 2003 before a decline is definite, & i would expect about the same this time. So for me it's a good time to be patient, or sell off the new highs for small gains.
Out of curiosity, don't most big funds run their year-ends at the end of March, rather than December, like other companies do?
GL/GT

Dallas GEP 14:29 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
If Cable is going to long back up it will need to get above this 1.9190 area and that looks probable now

slv sam 14:29 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
already euro registering new high..it is only matter of short time when cad will follow...sell now for much lower $/cad...may be 1.15 from here!GT

dc fxq 14:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:23

impossible! US equities, along with everything else are CLOSED Friday. No more trading after 4:00 ET.

Jkt Rick 14:24 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
The time has come to sell the euro, sell at market 1.3468 hope hou have all sold your farms for this trade.

London Iain 14:23 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
i personally doubt cable's going much below 1.90, if at all. For me (m/t trader) it's close to a buy at these levels. will be looking at calls early next week...i would look at it as lagging the others, but a fast catch up should be seen come early '05.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:23 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dow red friday ---> not so good analyst will blame it on x-mas shoping (See it on bloomberg soon)

Dallas GEP 14:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Took some more eur/gbp short @ 7031. This one is a little tricky with gbp moving and euro not basically

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:19 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
I don't sugest any longs on cable
maybe heading to 1.87

London NR 14:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London GLB 14:15
Less of the techno-speak plse i am a newbie I cant keep up with "day jobber and trendie follower" :P merry crimble lol

London GLB 14:15 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
signal provider? are you a trendie follower or a daily jobber? need a system to suit your personality - i like dmi for trens and stochastics for jobbing - but need a good money mgt system to make any entry/exit system profitable - hope this helps :->

gold coast martin 14:14 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
cable is the star of the show ...again!...

worcester js 14:11 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
can anyone reccomend a signal provider with entry and exit points?

Dallas GEP 14:10 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GLB I very much agree with your view. Eur/gbp longs are what is driving gbp short currently

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:09 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dow
Thu 12/23/04 09:07 AM 10,883.6051 10,692.9550
Thu 12/23/04 11:07 AM 10,882.2445 10,691.4890
Thu 12/23/04 01:07 PM 10,880.8840 10,690.0229
Thu 12/23/04 03:07 PM 10,879.5235 10,688.5568
Thu 12/23/04 05:07 PM 10,878.1630 10,687.0908
Thu 12/23/04 07:07 PM 10,876.8024 10,685.6247
Thu 12/23/04 09:07 PM 10,875.4419 10,684.1587
Thu 12/23/04 11:07 PM 10,874.0814 10,682.6926
Fri 12/24/04 01:07 AM 10,872.7209 10,681.2265
Fri 12/24/04 03:07 AM 10,871.3603 10,679.7604
Fri 12/24/04 05:07 AM 10,869.9998 10,678.2944
Fri 12/24/04 07:07 AM 10,868.6392 10,676.8283
Fri 12/24/04 09:07 AM 10,867.2787 10,675.3622
Fri 12/24/04 11:07 AM 10,865.9181 10,673.8961
Fri 12/24/04 01:07 PM 10,864.5576 10,672.4300
Fri 12/24/04 03:07 PM 10,863.1970 10,670.9639
Fri 12/24/04 05:07 PM 10,861.8365 10,669.4978
Fri 12/24/04 07:07 PM 10,860.4759 10,668.0317
Fri 12/24/04 09:07 PM 10,859.1153 10,666.5656
Fri 12/24/04 11:07 PM 10,857.7548 10,665.0995

London GLB 14:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
This eur looks frustrating probably because we are potentially forming a double top in it, lot of whipsaws, on a daily macd, we are very close to confirming a double top. seems like a good place to take profit on long eur/usd here, spike today has no momemtum.. get off the train at this stop is my advice

Van jv 14:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
lot buying, but at the same time failed, till now, break out...seems CBs in

Dallas GEP 13:59 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EURO very frustrating in it's lack of movement. With that in mind, I will close my EURO short at BE and play other pairs.

Dallas GEP 13:56 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Well Viies, it takes two views to make a market as youy know but the timing of the price action of course is what is important in relationship to your possie. So if your timing is off then YES your view is going to cost you money whether you are short or long.

nyc curious 13:56 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
PAR 13:45 GMT

where do you guys get this nonsense?

Tallinn viies 13:55 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 13:52 GMT - this wasnt the reason mate, just example how things influence...

been many years in the bank and gave prices to corporates.
I know what they are doing. sitting and hoping.-
and if deadline is over (year end) hadge funds back on business and give to euro real value :)

Tallinn viies 13:53 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP - isnt it costly to have opposite view ? :)))
anyway, keep sponsoring me and other fellas here,
before the year isnt over no correction at all.
this is my firm belief.
cu near 1,3510/15 before Ldn start tommorow morning

Stockholm AGuy 13:52 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:46 GMT:

But are you sure you aren't getting a distorted view due to the special circumstances of the Baltic countries? After all, they are a very small part of the world economy.

london MKS 13:52 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
£/$ WE WILL SEE 19000 LATER

Dallas GEP 13:50 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Viiies, we just have different views , that is all. Got stopped -15 on gbp long.

Tallinn viies 13:46 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:35 GMT - dont do that? you waisting your money. give it to me if you dont want it.

trust me there are many many many corporates who just staring at the screen and hoping to sell dollars better than current rate. and time is ticking. deadline is 31st of december.

for example Latvia our dear neighbours are switching their national currency peg from dollars to euros. at the moment theire currency is pegged to SDR from next year it is pegged to euros...
so basically all the corporates there want to sell their dollars and buy euros...
lot of them .....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:45 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 13:34 GMT December 23, 2004
Even Zorro takes a break. ;-)

PAR 13:45 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Us administration and US banks are just devalueing the dollar to boost the US stock market . Similar to what we saw in a lot of emerging markets.

Dallas GEP 13:43 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
1.9194 long agin on GBP with 15 pip stop

Antwerp Tom 13:42 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Viies, didn't know that one. Thanks. Hope we'll see 1.37 before yearend.

london MKS 13:39 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR WE WILL SEE 135+ TODAY

Tallinn viies 13:36 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 13:16 GMT - there is rule of thumb the on the first trading day of new year markets tend to move sharply against the prevailing movement.
usually it is 1-2%.
then I have time to reload my euro long positions :)
cu later near 1,35

Dallas GEP 13:35 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Shorted euro 1.3462

Stockholm AGuy 13:34 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EU ZORRO 13:32 GMT:

What? No "keep buying Euros"?!?

Dallas GEP 13:33 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Closed gbp longs @ 1.9223 for +28

EU ZORRO 13:32 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   

...HAPPY CHRISTMAS....!!!!

HK [email protected] 13:27 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
HYD Mally 13:21 GMT December 23, 2004

Follow the tech. and not your heart, as in all love affairs.
Euro goes to 1.39xx.

Mtl JP 13:23 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Coming up on the half-hour:

- Initial Jobless Claims. For Dec 18 Wk. Previous: -43K.
- November Personal Income. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: +0.6%.
- November Personal Spending. Consensus: +0.3%. Previous: +0.7%.
- November Durable Goods Orders. Consensus: +0.6%. Previous: -1.1%.

HYD Mally 13:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
My Christmas wish is that the dollar bears get lost, the high EUR is begining to become a nuisance for me! EUR/USD in my opinion is only good at 1.19!

hobart 13:20 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
bloody censored ,the censor is working overtime.

Dallas GEP 13:20 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
lONGED GBP FROM 1.9195 WITH 1.9180 stop

GENEVA FHR 13:19 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
my advice dont day trade FX trade futures.Daytrade FX is a rip-off.

hobart 13:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
censored

hobart 13:17 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
www.censored.com, use their demo account first.

Philadelphia Caba 13:17 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Expiry-wise: there is a 1.3135-1.3515 exotic Double No Touch option rolling off
at today"s NY cut (15:00GMT), alongside a large 1.3400 plain-vanilla strike.
Pre-1.3515 exotic barriers remain tipped at 1.3500.

Guys, what it does mean "plain-vanilla strike"?? Thanks.

Antwerp Tom 13:16 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi Viies, why would you close everything before yearend if you're with the trend? Do you expect a massive reversal from January on? GT

London new 13:15 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
hi, am new here, what is the best platform for a day trader with a £5,000 margin account to start trading fx? have market experience but no day-trade exp .. tks

Philadelphia Caba 13:15 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP, with eurgbp staying aside for now.

Dallas GEP 13:13 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Caba, I have already shorted it at 7000 much earlier when it looked like euro might short back but since that didn't happen, that entry was ill timed it appears. So the 7010 area does seem like good short but I am a little leery that EUR MIGHT try to be pushed thru it's highs during thin trading

Philadelphia Caba 13:11 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
For short eurusd put s/l at 1.3515. Option barrier above 1.3500.

Dallas GEP 13:09 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Viies, well if you look at last few releases there is at least some reaction to the news and then generally price action reverts back to technicals.

gold coast martin 13:09 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   


Tallinn viies 13:07 GMT December 23, 2004
In one sense we are all still working ...we all contribute to the market..we are all part of it....G/T

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
cad
Thu 12/23/04 08:06 AM 1.2507 1.2194
Thu 12/23/04 10:06 AM 1.2496 1.2182
Thu 12/23/04 12:06 PM 1.2485 1.2171
Thu 12/23/04 02:06 PM 1.2474 1.2160
Thu 12/23/04 04:06 PM 1.2463 1.2149
Thu 12/23/04 06:06 PM 1.2453 1.2138
Thu 12/23/04 08:06 PM 1.2442 1.2127
Thu 12/23/04 10:06 PM 1.2431 1.2116
Fri 12/24/04 12:06 AM 1.2420 1.2105
Fri 12/24/04 02:06 AM 1.2409 1.2094
Fri 12/24/04 04:06 AM 1.2399 1.2082
Fri 12/24/04 06:06 AM 1.2388 1.2071
Fri 12/24/04 08:06 AM 1.2377 1.2060
Fri 12/24/04 10:06 AM 1.2366 1.2049
Fri 12/24/04 12:06 PM 1.2356 1.2038

Tallinn viies 13:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:05 GMT - no reaction mate! who react if no one is working?

gold coast martin 13:05 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   


Tallinn viies 13:00 GMT December 23, 2004
what he means is market reaction.....

Tallinn viies 13:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 12:28 GMT December 23 - if you havnt noticed yet it is nothing to do with data at this time of the year.
there is nobody out there to react to data.
are you really think that corporate treasurers looking at news?

Philadelphia Caba 13:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Memo from F*X*C*M:
Please be advised that the trading desk will maintain the following hours in light of the forthcoming holidays:

Friday, December 24:

Sales/Customer Service: Will close at 4:00 PM. Will not re-open until Sunday, December 26th, at 4:00 PM.


Dealing: Market closes at 4:00PM. The market will not reopen until Sunday, December 26th, at 7:00 PM.
Friday, December 31:
Sales/Customer Service: Will close at 4:00 PM. Will not re-open until Sunday, January 2nd, at 4:00 PM.


Dealing: Market closes at 4:00PM. The market will not reopen until Sunday, January 2nd, at 2:00 AM.
All times listed are Eastern Standard Time (time in New York).

London.. 12:59 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
from one broker...
Friday, December 24:
Dealing: Market closes at 4:00PM. The market will not reopen until Sunday, December 26th, at 7:00 PM.

Friday, December 31:
Dealing: Market closes at 4:00PM. The market will not reopen until Sunday, January 2nd, at 2:00 AM.

dc fxq 12:57 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
US closes at 1800 officially.

manila stubbs 12:52 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me exactly what time in gmt will the markets be closed? also for new year? TIA

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:45 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP
Thu 12/23/04 07:44 AM 0.7074 0.6936
Thu 12/23/04 09:44 AM 0.7078 0.6940
Thu 12/23/04 11:44 AM 0.7082 0.6944
Thu 12/23/04 01:44 PM 0.7086 0.6949
Thu 12/23/04 03:44 PM 0.7091 0.6953
Thu 12/23/04 05:44 PM 0.7095 0.6957
Thu 12/23/04 07:44 PM 0.7099 0.6961
Thu 12/23/04 09:44 PM 0.7103 0.6965
Thu 12/23/04 11:44 PM 0.7107 0.6970
Fri 12/24/04 01:44 AM 0.7111 0.6974
Fri 12/24/04 03:44 AM 0.7115 0.6978
Fri 12/24/04 05:44 AM 0.7119 0.6982
Fri 12/24/04 07:44 AM 0.7123 0.6987
Fri 12/24/04 09:44 AM 0.7128 0.6991
Fri 12/24/04 11:44 AM 0.7132 0.6995

SAIHAT Right & happy new year & second 12:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
may hgih/low target

1.3322 1.3525
1.1375 1.1630

0.7556 0.7751
1.2235 1.2532

102.95 105.13
1.8998 1.9380

gold coast martin 12:41 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Tonites data represents a final major move before markets close....look for 13338 for euro ...10465 for yen....19126 for cable......good trades......

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 12:41 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Euro 2 hour Forecast
Trade the channel

Thu 12/23/04 07:37 AM 1.3537 1.3379
Thu 12/23/04 09:37 AM 1.3545 1.3387
Thu 12/23/04 11:37 AM 1.3553 1.3395
Thu 12/23/04 01:37 PM 1.3561 1.3404
Thu 12/23/04 03:37 PM 1.3569 1.3412
Thu 12/23/04 05:37 PM 1.3577 1.3420
Thu 12/23/04 07:37 PM 1.3584 1.3429
Thu 12/23/04 09:37 PM 1.3592 1.3437
Thu 12/23/04 11:37 PM 1.3600 1.3445
Fri 12/24/04 01:37 AM 1.3608 1.3453
Fri 12/24/04 03:37 AM 1.3616 1.3462
Fri 12/24/04 05:37 AM 1.3624 1.3470
Fri 12/24/04 07:37 AM 1.3631 1.3478
Fri 12/24/04 09:37 AM 1.3639 1.3486
Fri 12/24/04 11:37 AM 1.3647 1.3495

Philadelphia Caba 12:33 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GEP, r'u shorting eurgbp?

Dallas GEP 12:28 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
US data in 1 hour, BEWARE

Mtl JP 12:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
sam 12:03 / that would be approx 1.2475ish give/take a pip. Would that make u turn towards 1.27 ?

guangzhou jianzhu 12:18 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
I think,thistime is so good to sell EUR.

Tallinn viies 12:16 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
for the records.... :)
so called "closed eyes" trade take profit at years high wouldnt be stupid.
personally Im selling half of my long euros at 1,3485-1,3505 area. and all at 31st of december no matter what the level is at that time. maybe 1,3750 maybe not :)
cu

San Diego DC 12:14 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
london mks ,
Cable's direction is up with technical indicators on a 60 min chart.

slv sam 12:03 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:00 GMT /
yesterday high if you can afford! if not 1.2420.GT

Mtl JP 12:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
with what sl sam ?

slv sam 11:56 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
$/cad: For short term selling now at 1.2360 is good way to make quick profits...target mid 1.22 imho.GT

dc fxq 11:53 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
A couple of points to consider today and Friday:

1). An early closing in NY today (1300 ET - 1800 GMT) ands 2). NY trading will be closed Friday.

Given the already low level of counter-party traders active, if, as and when leveraged accounts want to take EURUSD through the prior high at 13470, they can do so with ease as evidenced by the spike higher last night at about the time Tokyo would have come on line (but didn't as markets were closed ther for Emporers Birthday).

Syd 11:32 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Excellent opportunity to short Euro on these rallies fwiw

Eastbourne pj 11:26 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London. 10:06 GMT December 23, 2004

I suppose everyone has their Xmas wish list

Los Angeles ss 11:08 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
MKS -- cable could very well test the asian session low in the 1.9140's at this rate, especially if us data in a couple of hours is good. 30 min chart still looks to have some room for the downside, movin in that direction.

london mks 11:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
any body have comments on £/$

Lndn Frnd 10:26 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
every one bullish euro, then expect retracement below 1.34

Bah Bahrain1 10:22 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
PAR09.47GMT// Thanks,looks heavy mate, think we see it lower, take care and good luck to every one. Bye now

London. 10:06 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD may have punctured $1.34 but according to tech analysis by Investors Bank & Trust it won't break above $1.35 until Jan. Bank says it's all part of head & shoulders that will have euro correcting significantly before resuming uptrend for the rest of 2005 and then completing the pattern in 06 and 07
Dj

Hong Kong Qindex 09:48 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:48 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/CHF : The market is heading towards the upper barrier at 1.5531 - 1.5550.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:45 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/CHF : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-


... // 1.5101 - 1.5309 - 1.5332 - 1.5352 - 1.5476 - 1.5550 - 1.5791 // ...


Hong Kong Qindex 09:03 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/CHF : Quantized Levels of Weekly Cycle


... // 1.5352 - 1.5397 - 1.5442 - 1.5487 - 1.5531* // ...

PAR 09:47 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GBP will move higher. Forget about the UK deficit and look at better than expected growth figures.

Bah Bahrain1 09:37 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
soon we will see cable near the low of the day. take care and good luck...its year end and thin market...anything can happen. GL.

Dallas GEP 09:37 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
1.9190 to 1.9200 good level to BUY GBP imo with stop around 1.9175

PAR 09:36 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
UK current account deficit almost 3% of GDP and growth mostly fueled by borrowing increasing the already big UK budget deficit. UK has same twin deficit problem as Blairs american friends.

Bah Bahrain1 09:34 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hi,
UK C/A Deficit GBP 8.7Bln ....Highest since Q1 1999.

Dallas GEP 09:34 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Well eur/gbp stop got snagged on data release at breakeven BUT I reshorted at 7000

PAR 09:32 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
UK current account deficit 8.8 billion pound and GDP up 0.5

Ldn 09:14 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
PAR 09:10 actually just been listening to Barclays on CNBC saying that UK at end of rate cycle with possible one more , which will be negative going into 05

PAR 09:10 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
UK data should be very positive. Current account deficit will be lower than expected due to lower oil prices and a higher GBP exchange rate used in calculations. UK GDP growth will be much stronger than expected fueled - as in the USA- by incredibel government borrowing and spending.So all in all expect amazingly positive figures which will sent GBP back to 1.9500 in an already dollar negative environment.

Dallas GEP 09:05 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok stop on eur/gbp short is now at entry 7005.

HK [email protected] 09:01 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Medium terms investors may expect USDX to move to about =77.5, B4 any significant rebound.
You may find euro by that time near 1.42.
This opinion may be negated if USDX will rebound above about 83.5.

For the to time being a near target for Euro=1.39xx is still intact.

World Merlin 09:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Ok, here are my Christmas giftS to everybody here:

1. Go long everything against the dollar, use progressive stops. Don't counter-trend trade with shorts, the movements will be too small.

2. Keep trading through next-week. Don't miss the train.

3. NEITHER THE BOJ OR JAP FINMIN WILL INTERVENE IN THE FX MARKETS.


Merry Christmas all.

Dallas GEP 08:57 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
With key UK data out in 33 minutes, not sure I want to be in any GBP possies when that data is release. Just a suggestion

Dallas GEP 08:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Well, for those that are more tolerant of wider stop loss a SHORT eur/usd here with stop at 1.35 could work very well indeed or wait until 1.3470 and do same thing. Only possie I am in still is that eur/gbp short from 7005

North Pole Santa Claus 08:39 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
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mysore forexveda 08:33 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Euro is moving towards my target towards 1.3480 today and 1.37** next week.

London. 08:31 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
The chances of an intervention exercise being launched this side of New Year are probably quite slim but it can't be ruled out.

A new resilience in the yen as foreign interest in Japanese assets rebounds, thin year-end trading conditions, fear that the dollar might come under even more selling pressure next year, plus the need for senior finance ministry official Hiroshi Watanabe to prove himself - are all reasons for action now rather than later.

And, noted Simon Derrick, currency strategist with Bank of New York in London, there wouldn't be any precedent in launching intervention at this time of year.

Back in 1987, when the slide in the dollar was causing similar concern, a coordinated exercise involving the world's major central banks over the Christmas period managed to help turn the U.S. currency by the New Year.
dow jones

HK JR 08:22 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
looks like those stops are being hit on the Euro shorts

prague viktor 08:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:16 GMT December 23, 2004....G.call and G.work mate..merry xmas..

Hong Kong Qindex 08:17 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:17 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/JPY : Quantized Levels of Weekly Cycle



... // 138.06* - 138.59 - 139.12 - 139.65 - (140.17) - 140.70 - 141.23 - 141.76 - {142.28} // ...


I am bias on the downside as long as the market is trading below 140.17.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:15 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/JPY : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-


... // 124.95 - 129.50 - 133.16 - 140.38 - 142.28 // ...


The mid-point reference of 133.16 and 140.38 is 136.77.

Tallinn viies 08:16 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
one of those days again where it is almost impossible to make loss.
trade with closed eyes and take your profit out later.
buying the euro on dips.

1,3180 is the level where Im ready to eat my pants if know what I mean :)

SanFrancisco Rudolf The Red Nosed Trader 08:10 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
There I like this handle better.

Tallinn viies 08:08 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
GOOD MORNING WORLD!
nice day today ah?
how are you? fine, good.
as things developed in the same way as they always do during the christmas time ( I mean crawling in direction of the trend and making new extremes) we must be happy and celebrate.
my traget for the next 48 hours is 1,3500!!!! and this one is long waited and targeted from the beginning of the year.
MNI reports there are couple huge Double no touch option structures which should help us to get up there. fwiw:
EURO-DOLLAR: Rate extended the late Asian rally to pressure reported
offers around $1.3440, the upside momentum earlier boosted on the breaks
above $1.3410 and $1.3420 with market conditions described as very thin
(Japan holiday, Emperor's birthday). A break above $1.3440 seen opening
a move up to retest life time highs at $1.3470 (Dec7), a break above
here then placing reported option barriers at $1.3500 and $1.3515 in
focus. A $1.3000/1.3500 dnt option structure is set to run off Dec28,
while a $1.3135/1.3515 dnt structure runs off at the today's NY cut.
Expected offers to emerge on any approach to $1.3500, one trader
suggests, but in these thin markets the barriers are expected to be
targeted. Trader adds that we could see a push up to take out these
levels with profit take sales to follow and correct rate lower. A break
and build above $1.3520 seen opening a move up to $1.3550/60. Bids seen
placed back at the broken resistance at $1.3410, the interest extending
down to $1.3400, with key support noted between $1.3385/75.

Helsinki iw 07:59 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
The euro has broken the resistance at 1,3435/45 and this could mean that the strong medium term resistance at 1,3475/85 won´t hold amymore. In such a case, the target will be close to 1,4000. But this is a low liquidity Christmas market so beware of sudden bursts of activity. IMHO

SanFrancisco Rudolf The One Eyed Rain Deer 07:48 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
I'll be lit up well Santa :)

Syd Santa. 07:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Rudolf The One Eyed Rain Deer

just make sure your ready tomorrow night to pull my sledge

SanFrancisco Rudolf The One Eyed Rain Deer 07:11 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Well after a good break I return to find Euro has indeed seen the level targeted by viies, just a little later than one might have thought it would after pulling back from the figure as I suspected it might in NY. Nice work again viies.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:47 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:46 GMT December 23, 2004
GBP/JPY : Quantized Levels of Weekly Cycle


... // {196.40} - 197.41 - 198.41 - 199.41 - (200.41) - 201.41 - 202.41 - 203.41 // 204.41* ...


The market is pulling towards 196.40.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:43 GMT December 23, 2004
GBP/JPY : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-



... // 182.17 - 185.54 - 190.04 - 191.81 - 196.40 - 199.86 // ...

NYC YIPPEE 06:08 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Cheers GEP. Good luck.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:50 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Gold is also trying to break the triangle with top (442.50-60) and bottom (438.70-80) forming a tighter formation at the moment.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:43 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Aud/usd is moving at a snail’s pace but moving along the bullish channel. I have bottom T/L at 7620-30 and resistance is still solid around the 7680-7700 area IMHO. GL GT

Hong Kong Qindex 05:37 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:36 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/GBP : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-


... // 0.6795 - 0.6868 - 0.6880 - 0.6971 - 0.7117 // ...


The mid-point reference of 0.6971 and 0.7117 is 0.7044.

london tony 05:27 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
thank you both of you

melbourne farmacia 05:17 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
london tony 04:57 GMT - if cable remains above 1.9130... expect some retrace 1.92 / 1.9224 etc..

Dallas GEP 05:15 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
On 2 hour chart 20 period moving average on GBP/USD is 1.9207. I think we see that either just before london or during London at least

london tony 05:15 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
pliz some one speak on cable

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:07 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW top of the triangle being tested for the eur/usd pair with intraday indicators in O/B area. I don’t believe this is a breakout yet but immediate support is found at 3410-20 (the top triangle area) for now. Bulls are making a move now but I would not be surprised if they fail to completely break the triangle this time. Bottom of the triangle is at 3280-90 now.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3440-50, 3500-10 and 3530-40. Main objective is still around the 3500-30 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3400-10, 3350-60, 3320-30, 3290-3300 and 3245-3255.
Retracement numbers are 3340-50, 3260-70, 3200-10, 3140-50 and 3060-70.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3260-70, 3150-60, 3050-60, 2950-60, and 2830-40 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Resistance T/L 3425-35 and Support T/L 3280-90 (this is the triangle forming)
Support is around the 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, 3130-40 and 3060-80 for now key support is around the 3130-40 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 05:04 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
This 1.3425 area is acting as minor support right now on EURO, if broken thjen next support seen is around the 1.3410 area

Hong Kong Qindex 05:03 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:02 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/GBP : Quantized Levels of Weekly Cycle


... // {0.6868} - 0.6888 - 0.6907* - 0.6927 - 0.6946 - 0.6966 - 0.6985* - 0.7005 // 0.7024 ...

Dallas GEP 05:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
BTW Yippee, nice trade on the euro long.

london tony 04:57 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 04:19 GMT December 23, 2004
pliz speak on cable

Dallas GEP 04:46 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
LOL....well YIPPE....newbies actually at times seem to make less mistakes. Nothing wrong with being a newbie. I am not a cagey old war veteran like some here so in that context I am a newbie also I suppose

Dallas GEP 04:43 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
BTW if EURO does break 1.3440, then we will see 1.3470 area

NYC YIPPEE 04:42 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Are you a NEWBIE GEP? When did you get promoted?

Dallas GEP 04:41 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks AM....

NEWBIES....lots of times price action will take pairs outside their technical ranges. That has happened tonight with EURO IMO. 1.3410 really SHOULD have held but when it didn't stop because stops were hit and caused euro to surge. Now for euro to get past 1.3440 (looks like a double top on 30 minute chart) we will need some MORE buyers. Are they there???? Perhaps....but more EASILY IMO at this time, is the SHORT direction IF euro holds here under 1.3440 for the next few hours

Ldn 04:37 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
MPC hints at cut in interest rates
http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/30323.html

wellington am 04:29 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 04:20 GMT December 23, 2004
Good luck - though I reckon your tp's a bit miserly. I'll be holding out for a wee bit more (he says now).

Dallas GEP 04:28 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
7017...that's pretty tight I know but if eur/usd breaks 1.3440 then eur/gbp will long as well if GBP doesn't also start to break long at a faster rate than euro is longing now.

SG Kan 04:26 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
May I please know what's your sl for the short EUR/GBP order.
Thank you sir

Hong Kong Qindex 04:22 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
SG Kan 04:13 GMT - EUR/USD : Unlikely, the potential of going higher is very limited.

Dallas GEP 04:20 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Well that 7005 short eur/gbp order is in play now

melbourne farmacia 04:19 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 04:06 GMT - Trend line Resistance (1.3442 ) might cap for now. But note break above triangle formation. GT

SG Kan 04:13 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex
What's your view on the current surge in EURO? Do you see it going further north? TIA

NJ RT 04:06 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia : where do you think EUR will stop ... I am in the other side of the camp .. waiting for 3180. thank you

NYC YIPPEE 04:03 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
FWIW Not being greedy taking my EURUSD profit at 1.3433.

melbourne farmacia 03:54 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Middle Eastern accounts driving Euro fwiw

philadelphia 24kt 03:48 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
70 would be a free fall, I think USD may gain some momentum anticipating some fuzzy fiscal magic by Bush in the New year. All the hype on Social Security must be a distraction from the 17 trillion medicare nightmare looming....thanks and happy holidays, I'll pare back positions and take some losses tomorrow for year end, think gold could retest a low, chart looks weak.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:43 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
philadelphia 24kt 03:13 GMT - It is possible but unlikely to see USD Index at 70.(X).

Spotforex NY 03:27 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
If I could I would have a bid at $410 in cash gold....that is my uptrend support at this time (I may be dreaming in owning them there, but hey - what the heck........)

Spotforex NY 03:25 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
philadelphia 24kt

I see the dollar entering a consolidation phase at this time (see my archives).

The 1.3440 area is a pivot point and a break may suggest a test of 1.38, but the oil retracement suggests to me that perhaps 1.25 is in the cards for the euro.

Gold above $445 in the cash market would ignite some upside momentum...but the technicals indicate some additional time for retracement/consolidation.

Happy holidays.

spot

philadelphia 24kt 03:13 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
I am not a currency trader however I follow currencies because I have large positions in precious metals. Gold has been moving inversely to the dollar yet it doesn't appear to be moving higher on recent dollar weakness, therefore I am considering selling off positions before years end and looking for re entry in new year. My question is, does anyone experienced in currency trading thinks there is a high probability for the dollar index dropping under 80 in near term, ie, 3 months out? Thanks

Ldn 02:16 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Dollar May Gain on Speculation Durable Goods Orders Increased
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aDVlKVKtdAig

Syd 02:00 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq I dont know about that, you take away the cushion of the rate differentials and their isnt much to hold it up there, people class New Zealand as a speculative currency in a far way place without that much substance and would take a hit on any world shattering event.

Auckland peat 01:48 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
The US$ err, could go down - or up
by Gerard Minack (ABN AMro)

I started this week by asserting that most of the big market calls for 2005 will depend on the economic cycle. The outlook for the US$, however, may be an exception. Of course, everyone knows the main reason to be bearish the US$ is because of America's large external deficit. This is a good point. It's particularly pertinent when you consider that everyone seems to be dollar bearish. Usually in a market if everyone is leaning one way the risk-reward is to go the other way. That's not always true in currency markets
because there are very large non-commercial participants. Now, for example, Joe Sixpack is selling US$600bn of dollars a year, because he's importing US$600bn more than he's exporting. That flow will persist regardless of interest rate differentials, regardless of relative growth, regardless of positioning. Every market participant can be short dollars and there will be someone still selling. This is one reason currency markets tend to trend. But there are semi-natural portfolio flows coming the other way, so the balance between the buyers and sellers of dollars is finer than suggested by only looking at the trade deficit.
There are two scenarios for how this balancing act moves, and
they have very different outcomes for the dollar. Under the first scenario, US growth slows because consumers slow, even as the rest of the world continues to buy US$ assets. This is my scenario:a domestically-led slowdown, where growth slows, equities fall, bonds rally and short rates come down. But it's also a scenario where Americans sell fewer dollars. If the rest of the world remains a buyer, then the dollar could go up - or at least remain far more resilient than most expect. Compared to where the consensus view was at the start of 2004, this is almost what happened for the first 10 months of the year, where the dollar moved sideways (and
long-end yields fell). This scenario is the Japan-style work-out. The second scenario is an externally-imposed slowdown, where dollar demand falls short of America's natural selling. The clearest sign of this will be a combination of rising bond yields and a sharply falling dollar. This is an ugly scenario, where the withdrawal of foreign financing forces America to slow. This is what I call the Asia-style work-out, as in the Asian crisis of the late 1990s. The point to the two scenarios is that under both US growth seems set to slow (and, I'd argue, Wall Street to weaken). But the outlook for the dollar is almost 180° different. The one dollar view that may not be that different under either scenario is that the so-far lopsided
dollar adjustment - with the euro bearing the brunt of the
dollar's weakness, but Asia very little - may change in 2005. But if the dollar proves to be only modestly weak, then that call is not so much a dollar call, as a Europe-Asia call. In other words, it may be that if Asia (including Japan) can economically-disconnect from a slowing US, while Europe stumbles and the ECB starts cutting rates, the big currency call for 2005 will be EUR/JPY, not the major dollar crosses.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:45 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is going to tackle a projected resistant level at 1.2523 - 1.2550. The mid-point reference of 1.2153 - 1.2523 is 1.2338.


Hong Kong Qindex 07:40 GMT December 22, 2004
USD/CAD : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-


... // 1.1125 - 1.1191 - 1.1903 - 1.2153 - 1.2523 - 1.2550 - 1.2617 - 1.4110 // ...

dc fxq 01:44 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   

Syd 01:31 GMT

Nah, the only C/A deficit that counts is the US one. LoL

Syd 01:31 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Hk ab hi wondering where you had got to, just noticed this report about the Kiwii Goldman Sachs saying its likely to fall to 6600 next year 05 think they are looking at the C/A deficit like everyone else quite a shocker in the scheme of things

hk ab 01:21 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
Maybe a quick sudden crash of euro to 1.26 area will tell more truths if it happens then, it can change someone's mindset here.

The only thing arguing that is the strength of eur crosses.

SanFrancisco Rudolf The One Eyed Rain Deer 00:51 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
London - Suggestion appreciated, will do.

Ldn 00:37 GMT December 23, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD close yesterday above 1.2408 (Dec. 14 high) opens way for rise to 1.2680 area (lows Jan. 9, Jan. 12-13, high on Oct. 13), based on technical analysis
Citigroup