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Forex Forum Archive for 12/24/2004

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monteria,colombia juan david 22:29 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   

monteria,colombia juan david 22:09 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
hello can someone tell me for real how much percentage gain (%) in return of equity can a forex trader make every month on average?

Pecs Andras 21:33 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Merry Xmas to all Forum members and to the whole staff of GV

london rb 21:27 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
happy christmas all be well have good time, be good to your families and x wifes husbands, God Bless

Dallas GEP 19:42 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
well that was spiked into and stopped!!! Oh well. Have a good day guys!!!

Dallas Gep 19:41 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Here we go again, one more spin of the lucky die clutching my rabbit's foot for good luck with the image of a lucky shamrock printed on my y-fronts. Eyes closed, yes, that's it just shorted eurgbp aiming for 30pips before the close. Anyone, that doesn't think I'm gambling, better think again. Just out to buy some lucky lottery tickets then I'm off to the racetrack and Las Vegas for the weekend. I'll be back in time for the start of Asian trading on Sunday evening, you know how explosive trading can be at that time of day and at this time of year. |

Wish you all the same good luck with my dart throwing eyes closed technique for next year. Happy gambling folks. Oh! and remember, my system works well with 400:1 margin.

Dallas GEP 19:02 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Well Thought I was gone....GBP short here @ 1.9225 with 15 pip stop might work nicely

chania 17:54 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
where can i find reliable historical intraday forex data in order
to use them in metastock?

thanks in advance

Dallas GEP 17:29 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Ok guys I am leaving here but my last thought is GBP can go ALOT longer than euro presently so it WOULDN'T surprise be to see a 1.9260 gbp print prior to close FWIW.

Philadelphia Caba 17:22 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Eurgbp spike to 0.7017 on *netdania* charts!!

Colorado Chief1Oar 17:09 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
To all the great people here ...

May you have the most happy and joyous holidays and best wishes for a great New Year. Thank you all for so selflessly sharing your thoughts and advice throughout the year, it means so much to so many.

Praying for peace on this fragile world of ours...

Merry Christmas to all...

Dallas GEP 17:07 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Well guys, action pretty slow right now. Eur/GBP is at a curious level tho. here at 7035. Could be a VERY good short from .7035/40 area as mentioned earlier. Assumes that EURO won't break out real long

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:06 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT December 24, 2004
Bahrain I think you could with a stop under 103.30

Thanks...I think I will wait till next week

Dallas GEP 16:05 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Ok closed out my Euro longs at market

Dallas GEP 15:58 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
London closing push coming up on EURO

Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain I think you could with a stop under 103.30

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:54 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
any Longing Yen around here? TIA

Dallas GEP 15:36 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
One thing to remember is that before weekend lately euro has closed very near it's daily high. London will be closed in about 30 minutes and we may see some longing back up to those highs prior to them closing out. then with alot of US out or leaving early there will not be alot of a push back down IMO FWIW

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:19 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Longing euro around my Yesterday's levels 1.3490 area

Dallas GEP 15:11 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Good place to short CHF is here with 10 pip stop (1.1428/40)

Philadelphia Caba 15:04 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Sold eurgbp @ 0.7035

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:49 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD High Low Levels Equations in Excel
for this week and next


NYC Sid 14:05 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot, alwyas a good thing when we learn valuable lessons from other people's errors...Best to ya.........

Antwerp Tom 14:03 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Happy holidays and excellent 2005 to all!
Thanks for your input.

Dallas GEP 14:01 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
.7057 Caba

Philadelphia Caba 14:00 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP, may I ask you on your s/l on that shorts? Thanks.

Dallas GEP 13:58 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
YEP Caba I am

Philadelphia Caba 13:57 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
GEP, r'u still keeping short eurgbp from yesterday?

Philadelphia Caba 13:53 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Selling eurusd, av sell 1.3490 so far. Will add more higher.

Marry christmas & happy holiday to all !

Dallas GEP 13:44 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Ok as far a a new possie goes, I like eur/gbp short from .7037 with 20 pip stop. Euro right now is fairly indecisive but watch chf because It does still seem to be leading indicator. When usd/chf hits 1.1428-30 that should be a good time to long euro. This assumes we will stay in these tight ranges.

BTW Happy Holidays to you all

GOES B747 12:55 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot Merlin 12:49 GMT // my question is regarding the actual trading; do you see all running positions as combined position or each running position has it's s/l and t/p?

say that you have 20 running trades/positions and 10 are in red and 10 in black but total pips is +300; will you close all position with +++300 or you will take profit of 700pips amd will let the losing 400pips to keep floating?


Tallinn viies 12:55 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
merry christmas
leaving the building now :)
I will be back to see euro on monday at 1,3620/30.
have a nice one

Dallas GEP 12:49 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD should be BID ahead of 1.3520

Camelot Merlin 12:49 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   

I'm not sure if I understand correctly. All clients are in one single unitized managed account via a number of fund-of-fund products sold in Europe and the Far East.
We get buy / sell signals on our system which is updated every 6 hours, 24 hours a day. Each order has an OCO stop, which is progressive. All clients (the whole fund) is traded toghether as one single trade.

Does this answer your question?


GOES B747 12:43 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot Merlin 12:39 GMT // good afternoon, let's see if I get it right; you do not trade positions and etc.; you trade account and when you reach the whole number then you sell all running position in the account (does not matter what each position does as indevidual) ... did I get it right?


Camelot Merlin 12:42 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
And ofcourse:


Camelot Merlin 12:39 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
NYC Sid.

The difference between us and LTCM is that we run progressive stops on all positions, which is our acknowledgement that we are often wrong, in fact our success ratio is in the region of only about 45%.

And we don't predict anything. We simply do what the market is doing. Furthermore our exposure per trade per currency is incredibly low. (Hard lessons from the past!) :-)


Buenos Aires 12:38 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   

that is easier to say than to do... do you have any system or indicators thta want to share with less experienced traders?

Thanks in Advance and Merry Xmas to all

Camelot Merlin 12:35 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the responses guys.

However, just keep in mind that EVERYTHING could change in half-a-day or a few hours, then we simply trade according to that new intermediate trend. I am not married to a view or my positions, in fact have no view nor predict ANYTHING, we simply participate in any short / medium even long term trends if they exist at all.

Best to you all guys.

Calcutta Vikram 12:31 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Merry X'mas and a Happy New Year to all.
May 2005 be very good for you

dc fxq 12:27 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
... the flows have been one-way this week ....

and the reason for that is basic: most financial institutions have been in a "books closed" mode as they are every year at this time.

I'll also point out that given that virtually every print article I have seen of late is universally USD -tive, two in the NY Times on the web site front page today alone, tells me that the end is coming if not near.

I've been in the markets for more than 37 years in a porfessional capacity and any longer range movements based on year end market behavior are wspecious.

my $.02 worth.

NYC Sid 12:26 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot, you don't know of any reason, tech or fudamentally to be long USD. That should scare you in and of itself. Ask the tech wizards at Long Term Credit about one way, sure bets. Opps. they aren't around anymore.

P.S. censored is Union Bank of SwitzerLand, not united. You should see the gnomes fight!

GOES B747 12:21 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Wish you all great festive season......

Manama Manama Naf 12:18 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Merry christmas, happy new year to all .
With best of luck in 2005 .

San Diego DC 12:15 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot Merlin,

Good posts. Please post more often when you can.

gold coast martin 12:10 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot Merlin 12:02 GMT December 24, 2004
Merlin....flows going one way for a certain period of time tend to make funds change direction and re-position...this is what is happening at the moment with the way traffick in a two-way street....thanks for the input....Be like those fund managers that are always producing consistent results..think ahead of the market....and prosper.....g/t


oslo oskar 12:07 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Camelot Merlin 11:58 GMT

how great I am!

Auckland 12:04 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Good day and good trade to all of you guys in this forum... one last post for this year just to wish you merry christmas and happy new year, more prosperity and luck in new 2005...
all the best to all of you and many thanks...

Camelot Merlin 12:02 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
...and don't be scared of the Yen. The BOJ will NOT intervene.

Please listen to me, for once....

Dallas GEP 12:01 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
In at market long on euro

Camelot Merlin 12:00 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
cencored = United Bank of Switzerland (U*B*S)

Camelot Merlin 11:58 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
For the life of me I do not understand why you guys are shorting EUR or GBP etc.
I run a FX fund circa $75 million, we are pure system traders, and I have been researching systems for the last 9 years of my life full time, part time and in my free-time. I know of no system, fundamental, mathematical, or any other which will give a short signal here. Due to our relative size, I get updates of flows through Deutsche, censored and Citi, and the flows have been one-way this week, and lots of big guys are ready to go large even next week.

Except if you guys are using stomach-juices to trade...

Best of luck anyway,
Merry Christmas.

Tallinn viies 11:52 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 11:44 GMT - buy it here dont worry,
will sell it later at 1,3570/75

Dallas GEP 11:44 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
OK I would say 1.3525 EURO on the ASK would be an excellent entry LONG. Saw that about 15-20 minutes ago but wasn't quick enough to catch it.

Tallinn viies 11:37 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
bahrain I would say 1,3280 unreachable today

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:36 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
I hope that everyone has a happy and safe holidays. See you on the other side. GL GT

Buenos Aires 11:30 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Rick, and other Eur short, stop loss???

Jkt Rick 11:29 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
average shorts at 1.3500 target 1.30.

Jkt Rick 11:27 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
add more shorts at 1.3535. the reward for this trade is phenomenal.

GVI john 11:23 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
MONDAY, December 27, 2004
AUS, CDA, UK- Christmas observed

TUESDAY, December 28, 2004
AUS, CDA, UK- Boxing Day observed
23:30 GMT- JPN- November Unemployment, vs. 4.7%
23:30 GMT- JPN- December Tokyo-Area CPI. vs. -0.3% y/y
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Industrial Output (prelim.)
23:50 GMT- JPN- November Retail Sales, vs.-1.4% y/y
15:00 GMT- US- CB Consumer Confidence: vs. 90.5 in Nov, see 93.0

WEDNESDAY, December 29, 2004
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
15:00 GMT- US- Nov Existing Home Sales: vs. 6.750 mln units
15:30 GMT- API and DOE Energy Inventory Surveys

THURSDAY, December 30, 2004
08:00 GMT- EUR- Nov 3 mos. M3 (money supply): vs. +5.8% y/y in Oct
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims:
15:00 GMT- US- Dec Chicago PMI: vs. 65.2 in Nov, see 62.0

FRIDAY, December 31, 2004
AUS- Private Sector Credit
AUS- Half-day session
JPN- New Years Holiday
GER- markets closed
07:45 GMT- FRA- Nov Unemployment Rate: vs. 9.9% in Oct

slv sam 11:17 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 11:56 GMT December 23, 2004
$/cad: For short term selling now at 1.2360 is good way to make quick mid 1.22 imho.GT

target may be achieved today!GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:13 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
1.3488 is probably the low for today(Euro)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:07 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 11:05 GMT December 24, 2004
I think U are right

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:06 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
maybe for today's low

Tallinn viies 11:05 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Im more than sure that we dont see 1,3290 during this year anymore.....

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 11:04 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Cable is right on next week's low

Tallinn viies 11:04 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
pa - why not 1,4?

last year as I remember december High low difference was over 700 points.
so far this year it close to 400 points.
additional 300 points may come very easily during the last trading days. 1,3550+300 = 1,3850
why not 1,4000?
you never know but if we see it during the 1st week I wouldnt mine
anyway, keep buying on corrections as long as year still spurtting toward the end

tehran- iran amir reza kazemi 10:52 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
hello dear trader. and good gbpusd trade this day.
(1.9210 my think to buy and writing now 1.9283)
my friends i hope happy holiday with your family.
and i think next christmas market to up trend .
what u think?:)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:46 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
There was an error in my post earlier as the key retracement number has changed now to 3380-90 area. Eur/usd pair is challenging the key target without a significant pullback (reminiscence of the last 2 years). The aud/usd is in the mist of breaking the resistance (7690-7700) with enough momentum at snailís pace this pair looks to soon print the 7720-30 area IMHO. GL GT
Looks like one more bonus coming up for us Farmacia. ;-)

Dallas GEP 10:16 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahtrain, not until 4PM eastern time

PA dessi 10:13 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 09:45 GMT
1.40 within a week. This is too much.
On my radar, with eur/gbp unable to overcome 0.7050, aussie well below its high of the year, usd/cad above 1.22, eur/usd seems to me as the perfect sell from now till 1.37/1.38.
Sure, a positional play, but the reward will be worth it. Talking about 7/10 figures on the run. GL+GT

Tallinn viies 09:45 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
good day all!
as you may see its aint over yet.
like every year end market wants to see where extremes are?
personally I keep buying if opportunities pops up.
today I see 1,3485/1,3510 area as a perfect short term level to grab more cheap euros.

target at least 1,3580 today.
with building momentum I think even 1,4000 is not impossible during next week. good luck all. keep squeezing ...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:33 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CHF 2.2090 2.1798 nice short

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 09:07 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
1.2369 1.2230

LDN LDN 08:59 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Forex Focus: Dollar Bears May Be Advised To Cool It
With speculators already preparing for a slide in the U.S. currency in 2005, dollar bears may be gearing up for a swift decline at the start of the new year. But the bears might be well advised to cool it. All in all, the prospects for the U.S. currency can hardly be said to be bright.
However, evidence of improvements on the cyclical side continues to increase, ensuring that expectations of further rises in Fed rates remain high
This means that if investors refocus on yield differentials, the dollar shouldn't do so badly after all.
Tom Levinson, an international economist at ING Financial Markets in London, predicts that soft areas in some parts of the U.S. economy won't be enough to stop the climb in rates.
"We continue to expect private consumption, helped by lower energy prices, to drive growth over the coming months," he said "This, alongside the Fed's desire for more 'neutral' rates, will in our view continue to be the main driving force behind rising Treasury yields," he added. The "neutral" rates to which the Fed aspires are levels closer in line with the country's 3.5% inflation rate. The Fed funds rate is currently 2.25%.
For the moment, the dollar is showing little sign of attracting much support. Ashley Davies, a currency strategist at censored in Singapore, noted, for example, the U.S. currency's failure to rise on this week's news that U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product was revised up slightly to 4% or that oil prices had continued to decline after an unexpectedly large rise in distillate stocks. "The dollar showed little reaction to the data, exhibiting its now characteristic disregard for positive U.S. cyclical news, even as one-year Treasury yields ticked back over 4%," Davies said. it was the same with other recent data, with the dollar falling to its new low against the euro Thursday after an unexpectedly large 1.6% rise in U.S. durable goods orders. All the same, Davies suggests, caution could prevail early in the new year, given the number of key events taking place over the next few weeks.
At the end of January, U.S. President George Bush makes his State of the Union address. This is followed by the administration's 2006 budget proposals, as well as a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations in the first week of February. May provide a certain degree of event risk even for those convinced of the structural arguments for further dollar weakness," Davies warned. Dollar bears could well find they have got ahead of themselves, as well as the market, especially if signs of an improved economy boost foreign interest in U.S. assets, and fears over the consequences of a large current account deficit start to dwindle once again.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:57 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
1.9342 1.9104

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:47 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Seems Like a bad trade...but I am short euro now

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:45 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
1.3560 is OK for next 12 Hours

Hong Kong Qindex 08:40 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 16:06 GMT December 19, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : There are two key quantized levels and are located at 1.3191 and 1.3705. The mid-point reference of 1.3191 - 1.3705 is 1.3448. The neutral zone is 1.3191 - 1.3362. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.2934 - 1.2986. A projected resistant level is located at 1.3705. (Suggestion Maintain a short position when the market is trading below 1.3577)

Weekly Cycle Quantized Levels

Curve A : ... 1.2780* - 1.2883 // 1.2986 - 1.3089 - {1.3191}* - 1.3294 - 1.3397 - 1.3500 - 1.3602* - {1.3705} // 1.3808 - 1.3911 - 1.4013* ...

Curve B : ... 1.2934* // 1.3063 - {1.3191} - 1.3320 - 1.3448* - 1.3577 - {1.3705} // 1.3834 - 1.3962* ...

Curve C : ... // 1.3019* - 1.3105 - {1.3191} - 1.3277 - 1.3362* - 1.3448 - 1.3534 - 1.3620 - {1.3705} // ...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:39 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Closing soon? trading I mean?

Hong Kong Qindex 08:38 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:29 GMT - We have to wait and see how it goes.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:37 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 08:23 GMT - WE have to monitor the market movement and adjust our position. EUR/USD : It is challenging my weekly cycle barriers.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:29 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q...
I think U are right!!

Mon 12/27/04 01:28 AM 1.3580 1.3400
Mon 12/27/04 03:28 AM 1.3580 1.3400
Mon 12/27/04 05:28 AM 1.3580 1.3400
Mon 12/27/04 07:28 AM 1.3580 1.3399
Mon 12/27/04 09:28 AM 1.3579 1.3399
Mon 12/27/04 11:28 AM 1.3579 1.3398
Mon 12/27/04 01:28 PM 1.3579 1.3398
Mon 12/27/04 03:28 PM 1.3579 1.3397
Mon 12/27/04 05:28 PM 1.3579 1.3397
Mon 12/27/04 07:28 PM 1.3578 1.3396
Mon 12/27/04 09:28 PM 1.3578 1.3396
Mon 12/27/04 11:28 PM 1.3578 1.3396
Tue 12/28/04 01:28 AM 1.3578 1.3395
Tue 12/28/04 03:28 AM 1.3578 1.3395
Tue 12/28/04 05:28 AM 1.3577 1.3394
Tue 12/28/04 07:28 AM 1.3577 1.3394
Tue 12/28/04 09:28 AM 1.3577 1.3393
Tue 12/28/04 11:28 AM 1.3577 1.3393
Tue 12/28/04 01:28 PM 1.3577 1.3392
Tue 12/28/04 03:28 PM 1.3576 1.3392
Tue 12/28/04 05:28 PM 1.3576 1.3391
Tue 12/28/04 07:28 PM 1.3576 1.3391
Tue 12/28/04 09:28 PM 1.3576 1.3391
Tue 12/28/04 11:28 PM 1.3576 1.3390

GOES B747 08:23 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:20 GMT /// oops; this bit alot different than the initial idea ... 1.3284, any time frame for this price?
1.3614: please don't.. :)


Hong Kong Qindex 08:20 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Quarterly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 08:18 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 07:56 GMT - EUR/USD : I prefer to see 1.3228 - 1.3294 first instead of 1.3614.

GOES B747 07:56 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
good morning Qindex,

hope everything is well with you; does your calls about EUR/USD are in place? ... I am hesitating about the price you told me, I am in deep red as I followed and still holding (oouuch) ... please let me know.

tia and gt

tehran- iran gbp/usd 07:46 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
hello to all of dear trader in world.
buy 1.00 lot gbp/usd at 1.9210
res: 1.9220-5.19245-1.9265-70.1.9299
sup: 1.9210.19200.1.9190.19160-50. 1.9100
happy haliday
[email protected]

Hong Kong Qindex 07:27 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:17 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/JPY : Quantized Levels of Weekly Cycle

... // 138.06* - 138.59 - 139.12 - 139.65 - (140.17) - 140.70 - 141.23 - 141.76 - {142.28} // ...

I am bias on the downside as long as the market is trading below 140.17.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:15 GMT December 23, 2004
EUR/JPY : The key quantized levels of my weekly, monthly and 3-month projection are located at the following :-

... // 124.95 - 129.50 - 133.16 - 140.38 - 142.28 // ...

The mid-point reference of 133.16 and 140.38 is 136.77.

philadelphia 24kt 05:01 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
China and Russia appear to be creating a marriage of convenience, and China has no intention of depegging. Meanwhile, Putin is giving Bush the finger, lol. The same guy that looked in Pooty's eyes and saw his soul, at least Putin has one!

Syd 05:01 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
tor China will take their time to revalue would imagine waiting until the spot light is off, Bush made the big mistake by trying to bully .

FW CS 04:48 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
But does any G-7 Country have a strong economy now? ECB, BOJ, and Fed are printing paper like crazy so all relative.

Sydney ACC 04:41 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Syd 04:30 GMT December 24, 2004
Agree on both your counts.
1. It really has the look of 0.7300 about it then a further fall tio the 0.6900 to 0.7300 range.
2. Fundamentals are terrible.
C/A deficit 6.5% when metal prices are trading at 15/20 year highs, too many BMW's and Mercs in the Eastern Suburbs.
3. Interest rate outlook flat to down at a time US rates increasing. I think maybe 3% by June 3.5% by November. Differential has the ability to contract to 1.5% from current 3% level.
4. manufacturing exports have been decimated by China and the high currency.
5. Property market and Govt giveaways which propped up consumer spending this year - gone.
I could add a few more but why bore you.

tor 04:40 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai, BC...true comments, but, speculators, by default, need to have a position and, to justify their positions, clutch at whatever seems fashionably reasonable. This, of course, you already know.
As for those who trumpet the revaluation of the reminbi ? China overtly succumbing to market economics ? Unless I have misunderstod Chinese history and its culture.....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:39 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Gbp/usd continues struggle inside the triangle with a double top around the 9550 area. Top T/L is around 9570-80 and bottom T/L is 9110-20 and 9050-60. Look for 9280-9310 area as good resistance for now. Intraday indicators are a mix bag and unwinding. Daily indicators are still in a correction mode (bearish). Support 9110-20 defines this pair if broken then look for further correction but a bounce will produce a good buy as well as the break of the resistance to test the top. My style of trading is still buying on a confirmed bounce for this pair with stops under the support and add positions to a break of the resistance or sell on a failure of the resistance IMHO. GL GT

San Diego DC 04:33 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Matha 03:23 GMT December 24, 2004
not long but short

I don't know what your exit strategy is, nor can I recommend where to cut your losses, but if it was me I would cut my losses now and buy Euros @ dips.

Syd 04:32 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC there are a few analysts out there more negative for the coming year on aud

Syd 04:30 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ACC we will just have to see but think you can dismiss the moves of the last two days, also got to wait and see what the Fed do next meeting

Sydney ACC 04:24 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Syd 04:09 GMT December 24, 2004
Big call by Citigroup after what we've seen over the last 48 hours.
If this transpires these guys would qaualify for the Forex Hall of Fame.

LA fxnew 04:11 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
whats ur view on cable pls


Syd 04:09 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
AUD still close to major pivot point at 0.7695 (corrective high on Apr. 7, low on Dec. 1, 50% retracement of fall from Nov. 26 high of 0.7947), based on technical analysis, if this resistance holds, pair likely to fall to at least recent 7442 low (Dec. 10 low) and possibly to good support in 7350-0.7370 area also . EUR needs to hold above previous all-time high of 1.3470 on daily/weekly close basis, alarm bells should start ringing, based on technical analysis if like in past a new high can't be sustained on weekly close basis, then double top pattern could once again be in prospect that would target 1.2800
some views from. Citigroup

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:46 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd pair was no exception with the triangle breakout and so the little train that could not has reached the main goal (3500-30) in my system (now time to make a new one). Something to note that BC said earlier it is impossible to catch the tops and bottoms all the time. The best thing you can do is to ride the train (trend) till the wheels fall off.

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3520-40 and 3580-3600. Key target 3560-70 and main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3470-80, 3450-60, 3425-35, 3400-3410 and 3375-3385.
Retracement numbers are 3430-40, 3370-80, 3325-35, 3280-90 and 3225-35.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3380-90, 3290-3300, 3230-40, 3155-65, and 3075-85 for now key retracement number is 3140-50.
Support T/L 3410-20 and 3300-10.
Support is around the 3480-90, 3440-50, 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3340-50 area IMHO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:36 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia looks like aud/usd pair is moving at a snailís pace but it is moving up the now defined T/L. I have good support around the 7620-30 area for now. I am still waiting for the resistance (7690-7700) to break. Number waiting to print is 7710-30 area for this pair. GL GT

SAIHAT Right & happy new year & second 03:32 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
eur may go dwon 1.3470/75 and may not

Tokyo Matha 03:23 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
not long but short

Tokyo Matha 03:23 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
I have Eur/Usd 1.3456 long position.
Anyone please tell me the loss cutting point.

melbourne farmacia 03:16 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL - Someone noted that 0.7635 trend support OMIL.. good for us. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:46 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Triangle breakouts seem to be the theme for this fall/winter and if you follow the market technically you can see them work to a thing of beauty (like the text book shows us). I have some calculated targets from these breakouts and I will share them in the FF with your permission.

Eur/jpy= key target 142.80-90 main target 150.30-40, 152.70-80, and 153.80-90

Aud/usd= key target (7735-45) main target (8140-50)

Juneau CAR 02:27 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
The 1980 inflation and 20% interest rates were due to the costs of Viet Nam. The US has a much more serious problem in Iraq. It is going to cost us a zillion dollars over 20 years to deal with that fiasco and our twin deficts have already passed the redline deficit warning of 5% GDP and are quickkly moving to 6% GDP.

The world knows this. What will it cost when the mideast devolves into a civil war. And on top of that our economy is slowing down, so we cannot raise rates.

And people wonder why the dollar is falling-lol?

We are doomed and the world knows it-lol.

gold coast martin 01:18 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   

Canberra 00:55 GMT December 24, 2004
LOL...been doing this for a living for 15 years....hasnt let me down yet...the best you can do is learn to listen.....look at my last 3 days posts on the cable it will tell you why i dont have to look for a summer job....advising corporate multi-nationals does not leave me time to look for a summer job!!!!...

Canberra 00:55 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin
What ever mate - maybe u could pick up a dish washing job over Summer until they mature.

shanghai bc 00:47 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   

The tops and floors of any market are all in the past..It is just human curiosity which strives to predict tops and floors of any market despite the well-known fact that predicting the tops and floors of any market is a futile excercise..In the long run,a trader's life will be much easier and more profitable if he just follows the market flow rather than indulging in a mission impossible..

london rb 00:36 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
keep long on dollar close 15th jan 2005

ltn th 00:27 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
Any EURAUD officionados around?
Is it time to short for big pips?

gold coast martin 00:24 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
SYD AND CANBERRA....LOL.....i am not 43 ...iam 34 years old...i have been adding euro shorts and re-positioning for nexr year,,,merry christmas and happynew year to both....

london rb 00:15 GMT December 24, 2004 Reply   
ldn stocks closed they finnish happy christmas all traders, close pos


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