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Forex Forum Archive for 12/28/2004

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Spotforex NY 23:59 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Charlie 23:50

The postings today have been very enlightening as the position vs daytrading conversation rolled on.....

as for courses or seminars, perhaps the webmaster [email protected] can aid you.

I am not a fan of giving my money away for insight of a seminar/ course or playing with a demo account.

books are a start and again see what the help forum can provide.



Dublin Charlie 23:50 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I am currently trying to research the pro's and con's of my involvement in fx trading on a daily basis ... I am thinking about doing a course with a company called MTI and then getting my feet wet ... hoping to learn whilst keeping risks low ..... any advice please for a novice ....

Cheers

lax-lgb SNP 23:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
£/¥ & €/¥ formations say that the shoguns are likely to push the contis' lower if today's levels hold ;-)

lax-lgb SNP 23:44 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
£/¥ & €/¥ formations say that the shoguns are likely to push the contis' lower if today's levels hold ;-)

London NR 23:40 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
There have been some crackin' posts tonite!! My tiny little brain is stuffed with fresh insights into the world of FX, I have been v lucky to find this forum.
Best of luck, GT.

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
bc/You score a perfect 10x on the last post.

shanghai bc 23:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

God created all sort of creatures to live and let live..That must apply to the forex trading community as well..It does not matter if one is a daytrader or position trader..I have seen traders who have been making money in their different trading styles..But they are all experienced traders with more than a decade long experience behind them..It is true that newbies with high leverages rarely survive more than a few years in this business..The importtant thing is to know how the market works and apply their trading style accordingly..We all have different temperament and personalities and that is reflected in trading styles as well..The trouble starts when a trader does not know how the forex market operates or when he starts forcing his trades or when he does not know what he is doing or what his odds are..If one has one of the above problems,he is a sure gonner in time..After all,this business, by its nature, does not like the majority..

NJ RT 23:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Gentlemen, any view on EUR/JPY? Thank you.

dc fxq 23:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Brussels ML 22:41 GMT

my apologies, there were two posts close together and I misread them.

mea culpa!

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 22:42 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
One thing that took me a while to come to terms with is to view my participation on a session basis as contributing to the underlying drivers (even fundamentals) of foreign exchange, even though this includes profiting.

Being able to determine what is a small profit taking flow or a non-session trend retracement is vital. Then you recognize but do not trade them, and only trade the true flows as much as possible.

Inevitably I have been forced to gain an understanding of economics and the rest and move beyond simply reacting to technical indications. In this fashion you are contributing to the larger market force and not being the little irritant the big money dispises and ultimately liquidates.

Brussels ML 22:41 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 22:18 GMT December 28, 2004
you must live in a very cloisterd spot then.

I was referring to the person stating:
"I've not met ONE person that has made money from day trading over a long period i.e. 1 year plus"

Me myself am a daytrader, and of course I'm a big fan of Larry Williams. I like his seminars, courses and systems :)


quito_ecuador_valdez 22:39 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Consumer confidence being best in 5 months lifted retail stocks today but did nothing for FX USD other than level off the $bear onslaught to crush range into a tirangle point which looks like a break out I assume in the Asian session if not the London Session. I'm long E/$ for the record but I am more of a position man, but day traders should check that E/$ triangle I posted below. Also note E/$ has touched down on the baseline formed from last week meaning it's time to go up.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:31 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
fxq//not ringing my bell but I've loggin in 8 years in position trading and have done well and until lately when I got a platform, the hard way with no leverage..spot. Literally all of the fund managers on this forum and the hosts of this forum itselfthemselves certainly have more than 5 years in forex. It is hogwash that day traders don't live longer than 5 years, and below it's said that the poster doesn't know any position traders who've been in this over 5 years...look around you on this lil blue screen. GT.

dc fxq 22:23 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, I didn't finish the previous post.

Any local on any fiutures exchange does it if hr/she is any good. And don't tell me they have an edge on the floor because of "no spreads". Ther are lots of loor traders who have migrated to terminal trading and done as well or better than on the floor. Of course some don't.

Just as you might say you've never met a day trader who made money over the "long term", I can just as easily say I don't personally know any forex position traders who made money over a five year period. My circle does not extend to position traders, good or b ad, ir is a fact.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Brussels//not ringing anyone's bell for any other reason than to support your post..take for example Dallas GEP did over 9% for his clients a week or so ago and he commonly logs in some 1% of amount invested on the average per day...he's traded for going on 6 years online. and manages 10's of millions of private bucks.

Again, not ringing anyone's bell but he's just one of many short term traders who've learned how to not only survive but make a decent living for themselves and their investors by day trading for the long haul. You could say the same for many here...from private managers such as mex sjs to biggies like Spotforex, Raven, Chicago Irish and the rest of the fund fellas. Although I don't particularly "like" day trading I do it and overall I win. I find the first 3 - 4 hours of trading is the best..dunno why...fresh mind maybe...after than I start burning up winnings.

As Spotforex said, risk management is the keyword in a business in which it is much easier to lose than win.

No views on that triangle I mentioned? BTW listening to Bloomberg radio online...USD is expected to fall by most experts into 2nd Q of 2005...obeying perfectly my model.

dc fxq 22:18 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Brussels ML 22:10 GMT

you must live in a very cloisterd spot then.

GOES B747 22:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Brussels ML 22:10 GMT // never got a bill regarding a dream or fantasy I had ... but sometimes following a dream or fantasy may cause a bill to arrive with clear signal that it goes about the last bill ... becareful and g/l to become the one out a million.

gt

Brussels ML 22:10 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
In reference to

I've not met ONE person that has made money from day trading over a long period i.e. 1 year plus

...

Brussels ML 22:09 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
In reference to
"I've not met ONE person that has made money from day trading over a long period i.e. 1 year plus"

Larry Williams (12000% in 1 year is not too shabby ;) )
His daughter (1000% in 1 year is still ok :) )
John Holsinger
Sakaeda
"Fairy"
etc..

Buenos Aires, Argentina NJP 22:04 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I participate in the market directly and I have a managed account. I am a bad trader and I trade for pleasure. The real money is made for my introducing broker in Panamá. They sustain long position for months and always trade with shared option that activate if the price hit the stop. The details are as follow:
Status: CLOSED POSITION EXOTIC OPTION SHARED CALL
Currency: EUR/USD
Price: 1.3500
Value Point:10
Numbers of tick: 13121966
Profit: 1097 ticks
Real Time Market Price: 1.3502
Prime Paid: 15% of profit
Hour: 16:29:00
Expiration: 2004-12-23
Date: 2004-12-23

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:03 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Anyone note an upward pointing triangle formed on E/$ 5 day chart..upper line from 12/27 and lower line also from 12/27? If it is, it is poised to break NOW.

dc fxq 22:02 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

Spotforex NY 21:56 GMT

your fine post underlines the importance of discipline whether trading intraday or position trading.

Spotforex NY 21:56 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I find that my 'style' with 5 minutes charts is breakeven at best in the short run.

but the bigger problem is trying to define oneself with only ONE account...are you a pip trader? trend trader??? channel trader....???

I feel that most people out there do not know what they are (in terms of trading style). They change whims and tools as often as socks. That is what contributes to big losses and burnout...a trade that originally was based upon a five minute chart to yield some 20 pips of profit all of a sudden morphs into a 'strategic' trade when 20/30 pips against oneself....and then is added on when it is 100 pips against the original entry point...

FWIW

My win ration is about 30-40 pct over time with trades, but it the ability to ride a trend that allows me to recover the funds lost in the 'chop-chop' trading sessions.

I do not preach any specific time period to watch, but I will preach risk management

dc fxq 21:51 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 21:42

my final comment on the topic - at least for today (LoL):

trading forex is not different than many other activities. Just as every golfer can not be Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh or Phil Mikkelson there are some who are quite competent and make a living at it whether on the Pro tour or not. The same is true of any other occupation, sport, etc. Some will stand out, some will flounder and give it up and others will go on day after day, week after week. In either case it takes practice, mental discipline and certain motor/intellectual skills to do well consistently.

London. 21:42 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Long-term investors have already closed their books on currency trading for the year, speculative accounts were able to exert much more influence on price levels than usual. The dollar's slide on Monday, when the euro gained nearly a cent, had been in large part attributable to exaggerated movements in thin market conditions according to analysts.
Enrico Caruso, chief dealer at Tempest Asset Management in Newport Beach, Calif., said the dollar's day-earlier fall was driven by a couple of larger hedge funds which placed big order for euros. Caruso said once they entered the market, there was "a panic" and smaller hedge funds rushed in to buy the single currency as well. A trader at a large Canadian bank gave a similar explanation, agreeing that almost all big institutions had stayed on the sidelines and that the euro buying was done by "many smaller funds." The trader said that the size and pace of the dollar's fall set off automatic buying from hedge funds which have models that trigger orders under certain circumstances. Dj

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 21:42 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Seriously, Spot speaks with wisdom, as do the others who profess widening one's trading approach. Certainly, the 5 minute variety is mathematically more prone to greater likelyhood of error as the larger wave can override your smaller wave.

Trading individual sessions can be done, and is done successfully. In my humble opinion, it simply requires the cultivation of different abilities than wider range trading, which require cultivation of their own skill sets.

jkt-aye 21:28 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
i'm not sure, is it a diamond pattern on eur 4H and gbp daily ?

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 21:27 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
By the way Spot, the fee to enroll for the future of your lifetime by joining my outfit happens to be, amazingly, $.37 !

Call me and the future is yours haha.

Ldn 21:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA (AP)--The death toll from the Asian tsunamis could eventually double due to the risk of disease, the World Health Organization said Tuesday. "There is certainly a chance that we could have as many dying from communicable diseases as from the tsunami," Dr. David Nabarro, a WHO expert, told a news conference.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 21:24 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Nice posts today Valdez, OK et al. Thanks.

Spot - That .37 is your cue, go get em man !

mks london 21:11 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
good luck every one

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:08 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Goes, if he did take credit he passed the media a note..his left arm is either prosthetic or paralysed and they found tooth and fingernail fragments of him in one of the caves they gas bombed some time ago.

GOES B747 21:02 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
when data is USD positive and some want USD down ...who comes to rescue EUR?!
the one and only, OBL ... the greatest USD shorter of all times :) ... by the way, did he claim responsibility about Tsunami?

gt all

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:59 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 20:38 GMT December 28, 2004
I like that (will and stamina). That sounds like some of the ingredients needed to succeed in FX (or in any business). Happy Holidays

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:55 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 20:29 GMT December 28, 2004

Thank you and I wish you the same.

dc fxq 20:47 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 20:35 GMT

but $.37 was REALLY $.37 is those days!

LoL

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex//any word on a big gala for us all in NY someday? You said you'd help Jay et al pull it off if indeed it goes to the planning room..never heard another word about it. Just a thought going into '05.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:38 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
The secret to success in anything is the will to excel and the stamina to support the will. Spotforex and the rest of the pros here reflect this determination to succeed. We're almost into a new year already..sheesh..flime ties.

Spotforex NY 20:35 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I have $0.37 left...so there is some hope for me

:-)

Happy holiday all!!!!!

Spotforex NY 20:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Yes, the library 5 city blocks down from my home was the FIRST Carnegie funded library in the nation (York Ave and 77th street NY City).

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:30 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Rudolf// There was a Scottish immigrant. He came with the equivalent of 37 cents in his pocket which was quickly spent. At his peak he was making some $32,000 a day some time later after he invented a process to blow sulphur out of molten iron to form steel. I did a term paper on him when I was in highschool using the references in the local Carnegie library. He was Andrew Carnegie. He died many years ago when 32k was a fortune of fortunes, let alone a daily income. He funded many libraries and the Carnegie instiute. He had a 5th grade education. Makes your point.

OK SZ 20:30 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
One more thing as in sports I will take a person with common sense and desire to learn over a person with a degree any day.

Syd 20:29 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Real estate industry braces for slump
Date: December 29 2004
Several real estate industry leaders have predicted mergers and redundancies next year after a correction in residential property prices and a 30 per cent slump in turnover this year.
Hocking Stuart managing director Greg Hocking said several high-profile mergers over the past three months were the tip of the iceberg of a major rationalisation of the industry, and he predicted many agencies would have to shed staff.
"With market turnover now around 70 per cent of what it was 12 months ago, we have more agents in the market than at the peak, so obviously something has to give," Mr Hocking said.
"The shake-out is going to be sudden and harsh."
The AGE

OK SZ 20:29 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco, now that is a good idea. These so called experts with degrees are useless (well most of them). Omil hope your having a good holiday season. Take care all and GT

Spotforex NY 20:28 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP

first step is trader education and due dillgence on platforms.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 20:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Let me provide an example. One guy who was turned down for numerous trading jobs due to lack of a higher degree and/or failing "profile testing" was hired in this firm and provided some fair support, and he really did excel. Seems to me if smaller fx firms focused on picking people with natural ability and supporting them the firms would end up with "athletes" per say, as opposed to high degreed water boys.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 20:12 GMT December 28, 2004
That is a nice though but it will be virtually impossible to get that done. Simply because there is money involved and when that is involved there is greed and ego. Maybe start off good but later it will disappear as everyone eventually will try to pull for his pocket. The company will then disappear with player hating each other IMHO. Happy Holidays

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq// Well put and I resemble that remark! LOL

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 20:12 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spot - when you say no one has gotten the formula right to set up a successful day trading shop, I have worked under a firm in SF very temporarily that was really just looking to attract capital via new reqruits and did not offer much in the way of support. Maybe if some smaller firms took on a more competitive mind set and brought in good minds without the mindfield of psychological and degree oriented hurdles of the larger firms that ultimately guarantee nothing, those smaller firms would put some coached and potent players on the field.

NYC 20:11 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GD. EBS is only for institutional (bank) traders

Vienna GD 20:10 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex ... ebs doesn't support minis - right?!

Mtl JP 20:08 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
NY 19:53 / ant bucket-shop activism.. care to expand on that plz: more govt rules/regilations or simple trader education about due dilligence and school of hard knocks ?

mks london 20:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
forget thats thing. sell £/$

Spotforex NY 19:57 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq

totally agree with the home office type.

dc fxq 19:55 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spot - the sort of peaople you describe are a far cry for the many who simply log on at their home or home office at no more cost than their own capital and an internet connection with no "seat" fees or pressure (from peers or managemtnt) to churn and burn.

I have personally known several futures traders who using and old fashioned ticker managed to earn a decent living and then some day trading.

Spotforex NY 19:53 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
yes - I am an anti-bucket shop activist in the FX world.

It is getting better on the retail front and I know there are some very good companies out there. They even advertise here! But bigger does not mean better in that formula!!!!

Spotforex NY 19:49 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
mks london

Yes, it can be done. You are an example of that. But they typical FX trader will put up a small amount at a retail shop, be overleveraged on losing trades and be forced to liquidate.

That is why a large amount fail...

dc fxq 19:47 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 19:45 GMT

the sort of place ou describe is nothing more than a later day bucket shop. not at all similar to sitting in front of your own screen away from the hype and hoorahs of one of those places.

dc fxq 19:47 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq, what time of the day (GMT) does censored trade at 2 to 3 pips? I know that when markets are dull, then the spread is like 10 pips and more for their currencies.
Thanks.

Spotforex NY 19:45 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
not polite (nor allowed) to ask or mention specific platforms since they do advertise on this site.

re: $200 per day

This sum is the daily commissions that the equity broker/dealers like to see EACH trader generate each day.

The FX shops I have seen in NY charge a monthly desk fee of $500 to have a physical location to sit (but please bring your own capital)......

No one has gotton the FX formula right to set up a successful 'day trading' shop.

mks london 19:42 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
i am living on day trading since three yrs. this is my job. i earn my wages from day trade. we all can do

dc fxq 19:42 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
my platform is o. a. n. d .a

Vienna GD 19:40 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ... which one do you use?

dc fxq 19:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 19:27 GMT

I agree the platform used is the critical element. Mine has a sub 2 pip spread for EURUSD and 3 for USDJPY. Orders execute in a flash and no re-quotes or sniping for stops either. Works for me.

Spotforex NY 19:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
and I would differenciate from prop trading and market making....totally difference mentality in place and advantages/disadvantages.

I had pals at a bank who would imply me that they are 'great' day traders...but they make their living off of reading customers and using the order book for protection....when it came to trade without an order book it was a whole new ball game.

Spotforex NY 19:27 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I am a small fish in this FX pond.....sort of like the nemo type. Always lost and tring to get home!

Spotforex NY 19:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
now there are a few that do very well in the short term scenario...but the trading platform would be key in that case......EBS is excellent for such a task and a matching type of system.....

the retail platforms - why that could be a different story and they will 'slow down' the execution process during the fast markets to 'protect' themselves from getting 'picked'.

praga jan 19:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
ny,fh:may i ask you in what ammounts are you trading?thank you for your kind!

dc fxq 19:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
"I've not met ONE person that has made money from day trading over a long period i.e. 1 year plus. To have 10 successful trades on the bounce scalping 10-20 pips is not too difficult. However, to win 10 trades (100-200pips) and then lose all of that plus some, is very demoralising for the pysche and of course your account balance."

There is a very major difference between day trading for 100-200 pips - virtually an impossibility given the average ranges for major's day in day out - and 10 - 20 or even a few more several times a day.

Your comparison is invalid since oriofessional day traders go for consistent singles and occasional doubles, noit for home runs every time in a psoition (or at bat).

London NR 19:24 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I think I got confused between "day trading " as a style of trading and " day trading " as a product that you have to pay thru the nose to enjoy, i was just thinking chronology.
I realise that every time you make a trade 3 or more pips go to the trading platform peeps and the less trades you make means its more economical for you, but i wasnt aware of some companies charging such fees as $200 a day!! Hey im new plse forgive :P
I'm just one of those poor shmoes that is fed up workin for some-one else all the time , lookin for a way out. Will it be possible for lil' 'ole me to make this pay or am I pi$$ing into the wind again?
If I can make it pay or not it is addictive.
GL GT

mks london 19:24 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
big fish wants to keep market under their control always. they don't like small fish like us making dirt their water. because some time we do. thats their ache

NY FH 19:17 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY - agreed. Turtle trading or channel trading using 4hr and 8hr charts are the best ways to go. I just can't see how anyone can make money by day trading. You have to be incredibly lucky to make money each month to pay the bills. I mean forget about any luxuries like buying a new car or taking a dream holiday. I've not met ONE person that has made money from day trading over a long period i.e. 1 year plus. To have 10 successful trades on the bounce scalping 10-20 pips is not too difficult. However, to win 10 trades (100-200pips) and then lose all of that plus some, is very demoralising for the pysche and of course your account balance. This is the reality of day trading please correct me if I'm wrong.

It has taken me x attempts to realise this and change my BAD habits, which means cutting out all day trades and only trading in the direction of the 4hr/8hr trend and for it to bounce off the channel lines. Risking 20-50 pips to make at least 100-150pips is far better than the emotional trauma that day trading puts you under. I now only have to be right 2 or 3 times a month to make my living expenses and extras. I can afford to lose 3 or 4 times each month and still be way ahead of the game.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 19:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Speaking of stocks, every US Index has hit 52 week highs today and some hit all time highs I'm told. A sure sign of poor US economics :)

london ross 19:09 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
mks london yes u are right

mks london 19:06 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dear day trader,
ignore all rubish talk about day trade. continue your trade. but becarefull

mks london 19:06 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dear day trader,
ignore all rubish talk about day trade. continue your trade. but becarefull

Spotforex NY 19:04 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I watch the FX markets every day but not a 'day trader' under such definitions. I do not like to be dictated the volume amount or suggested commissions per day from IBs and broker/dealer shops.

I do not like day trading customer funds.....

but if one is using their own money, then such type of trading could be fine. I find that overtrading tends to minimize the really big trend moves.

atl jacat 19:02 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I'm another one who visit all the time and make a very good living. during forex trading since 99. I agree about daytrading STOCKS, no clear pattern to follow. jmho

Lndn Frnd 19:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
i am reading global-forum since sept. 1999 every repeat every single post even on saturdays , sundays and holidays if time catch me i review current and NEXT PAGE until i stop at what last seen by me , never missed anything except to be correct 5 - 10 times per those 1999 till now, i get benefit and iam day and short term trader

dc fxq 18:53 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I am one, and have been doing so in forex since 2000 and prior to that since 1991 in index and debt futures.

Spotforex NY 18:40 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
NY FH

Totally agree with you on the day-trading scenario.....I was recently chatting with a broker/dealer about it and this entity wants a minimum of $200 per day per trader in commissions.....I can only see it ending up in tears for the end user. Chop-chop churn-churn.....

When will a place emerge that caters to the end users needs?

(e.g. coming home with profits by month emd to pay the bills).

I like the turtle concept and subscribe to that school of though

Spotforex NY 18:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 15:59

Sorry for the delay in replying...That was just a minor support level I threw out in the euro...it held thus far.

If it will break??? Jubbs only know.....

London NR 18:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
So how many day traders visit this forum and make their living from it? Genuine question. GL GT.

dc fxq 18:17 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Whatever NY FH, each to his own.

NY FH 18:07 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
why day trading will wipe you out.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/fool/20041227/bs_fool_fool/1104160020

It really is a fool's game to day trade anything, particularly forex!

GENEVA FHR 17:05 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Vienna OK

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 17:05 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf...24 hours
Tue 12/28/04 03:04 PM 1.5498 1.5400
Tue 12/28/04 06:04 PM 1.5502 1.5403
Tue 12/28/04 09:04 PM 1.5505 1.5406
Wed 12/29/04 12:04 AM 1.5509 1.5409
Wed 12/29/04 03:04 AM 1.5513 1.5413
Wed 12/29/04 06:04 AM 1.5516 1.5416
Wed 12/29/04 09:04 AM 1.5520 1.5419
Wed 12/29/04 12:04 PM 1.5524 1.5422
Wed 12/29/04 03:04 PM 1.5527 1.5426
Wed 12/29/04 06:04 PM 1.5531 1.5429
Wed 12/29/04 09:04 PM 1.5535 1.5432

GER ad 17:05 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:56 ,
Close all your Explorer frames and then reopen, it may help.
If not restart your computer.

Vienna GD 17:02 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Geneva FHR ... would be happy to met you offline f.e. via email ... may i ask jay for your email adress?

Bruxville Jim 17:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, it's OK at my end.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:56 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I'm not seeing the streaming prices on FX + ticker...anyone else having same prob?

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:55 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Paris// You mentioned that in a few years there would be less brokers. Could you explain that view for me (Help Forum please)?

Paris 16:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Geneva, if y are a retail trader who trades a couple of millions per day or less, then the price with 3 spread is really good one. if u trade like censored or others big players then u can ask for a choice price. Not so far ago, a very good quotation in the interbank markets was 2-3 pips of spread. Now u get the same for 50k eur!!! In my opinion brokers shud quote with 5 pips of spread for such amounts and probably in 2-3 years when will be only some brokers we ll come back to wider spreads. gl.

nyc grumpy 16:45 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:20 GMT December 28, 2004
Don't get mad at me...Just the output of my system

does anyone care?
lets take a vote.

LoL

GOES B747 16:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
MI Kanny 16:29 GMT // when 1.3650 taken and stays for 4 HRS above the rpice, your 1.3850 will reach you on red carpet ... it is the 1.3650 wall to smash.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
we are now above this coming thurs's High with 1:1000 odds

MI Kanny 16:29 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
It seems to be big delta to do at eur/usd 1,37.... if it breaks we'll see 1,3850 in secs

MI Kanny 16:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
this is a test..

Bkk cad 16:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
STG/YEN should head back to 200.00 for another test
Good night all

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:20 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Don't get mad at me...Just the output of my system

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 16:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Traders..I think it might be time to be carefull for kepping longs on euro
Tue 12/28/04 11:14 AM 1.3752 1.3481
Tue 12/28/04 02:14 PM 1.3740 1.3469
Tue 12/28/04 05:14 PM 1.3728 1.3456
Tue 12/28/04 08:14 PM 1.3716 1.3443
Tue 12/28/04 11:14 PM 1.3704 1.3430
Wed 12/29/04 02:14 AM 1.3691 1.3417
Wed 12/29/04 05:14 AM 1.3679 1.3404
Wed 12/29/04 08:14 AM 1.3667 1.3391
Wed 12/29/04 11:14 AM 1.3655 1.3378
Wed 12/29/04 02:14 PM 1.3642 1.3365
Wed 12/29/04 05:14 PM 1.3630 1.3352
Wed 12/29/04 08:14 PM 1.3618 1.3339
Wed 12/29/04 11:14 PM 1.3606 1.3327
Thu 12/30/04 02:14 AM 1.3593 1.3314
Thu 12/30/04 05:14 AM 1.3581 1.3301
Thu 12/30/04 08:14 AM 1.3569 1.3288
Thu 12/30/04 11:14 AM 1.3557 1.3275
Thu 12/30/04 02:14 PM 1.3545 1.3262
Thu 12/30/04 05:14 PM 1.3532 1.3249
Thu 12/30/04 08:14 PM 1.3520 1.3236
Thu 12/30/04 11:14 PM 1.3508 1.3223
Fri 12/31/04 02:14 AM 1.3496 1.3210
Fri 12/31/04 05:14 AM 1.3483 1.3197
Fri 12/31/04 08:14 AM 1.3471 1.3185

GOES B747 16:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
FHR // sorry, I cannot trace file ... by the way, one hand trading with Soros also mentioned.

your 1.45 target looks like sure thing :)

gt

jkt-aye 16:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
agree with u CAD, cable more promising than eur, imo

Bkk cad 16:06 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Long cable here as I think STG/YEN is done for now. Long euro as well

GENEVA FHR 16:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Goes english

GOES B747 16:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
viies, is the meaning of viies in Estonian is EBS?! :)

gt

NJ RT 15:59 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY : Do you think eur/usd will go lower than 1.3595 before it will go long? Thank you

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:57 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Yen for a few days

Tue 12/28/04 04:56 PM 103.8528 102.3773
Tue 12/28/04 07:56 PM 103.8714 102.3916
Tue 12/28/04 10:56 PM 103.8900 102.4058
Wed 12/29/04 01:56 AM 103.9086 102.4201
Wed 12/29/04 04:56 AM 103.9272 102.4344
Wed 12/29/04 07:56 AM 103.9458 102.4487
Wed 12/29/04 10:56 AM 103.9644 102.4630
Wed 12/29/04 01:56 PM 103.9830 102.4773
Wed 12/29/04 04:56 PM 104.0016 102.4916
Wed 12/29/04 07:56 PM 104.0202 102.5059
Wed 12/29/04 10:56 PM 104.0388 102.5202
Thu 12/30/04 01:56 AM 104.0574 102.5345
Thu 12/30/04 04:56 AM 104.0760 102.5487
Thu 12/30/04 07:56 AM 104.0947 102.5630

Geneva 15:57 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
There was an artical in the Globes, De picciotto is very berish
dollar for 2005.

GOES B747 15:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 15:52 GMT // now I know that you are a shark in fish's suit ... ha ha ha !!!

which languages you read ???


gt

jkt-aye 15:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP ... breach 1.9330 negate $ bull move. imho

GENEVA FHR 15:52 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Goes What it his prevision pse.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:50 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
cable heading to 1.96

GOES B747 15:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
placed USD/JPY short order @ 103.42

gt all

Gothenburg XON 15:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out on my positions, look like it's time to buy dollars!

sf mike 15:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Is that consumer confidence kicking in?

mks london 15:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
buy £/$ 19290 for 19450

Bkk cad 15:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable broke 1.9320 support, now 1.9250-60

GOES B747 15:45 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
find Edgar de Picciotto's EUR/USD forecast for 2005 ... may bring into light better idea when the reversal will start taking place.

gt

HK Kevin 15:43 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Anyone watching at the 4-hr chart of USD/CAD. Look how the sloe stochastic holding very well. Above 1.2220 will tst 1.2280 again.

Spotforex NY 15:38 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
euro below 1.3590 lets out some of the air for the drive towards 1.38

and 'rick' then has a shot at his 'easy' money.

happy hunting all!

GOES B747 15:38 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
placed EUR/GBP short order @ 0.6959

gt all

Bkk cad 15:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
My target for cable done! now looking for long again with short stop.
Beware euro....euro/yen not dropping

gold coast martin 15:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 15:27 GMT December 28, 2004
If did not get out of corporate culture a while ago i would burn out.....
...looks like we are having another short and shallow retracemt on euro to the tune of 13554.....aussie back to 7748.....a good momentum for day trades....

Gothenburg XON 15:29 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Well, is Cable about to turn, target 1,9410 ?
I think so...

sydney gvm 15:27 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin sounds like you have been wedded to the mkts for a long while now - GL/GT

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 15:27 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
chf short

Bkk cad 15:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Sigh! if you put your entry 6 pips above/below the spot price, you'll still probably get done.

gold coast martin 15:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 15:12 GMT December 28, 2004
...uni at 16 is not much fun.....was lucky to finish the 3 years early and take further study after nab graduate in take...anyway in this business only as good as your last trade,so even a rhodes scholarship does not help!!!!...
btw...the period between now and the 10th of jan..is a period i dont take much notice of in relation to establishing any precedent for 2005...17.24% is a good return...keep it up...g/t

HK Kevin 15:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc. It seem someone is working hard than Chinese guys on forex front. Isn't this a clone of the Singapore China Aviation Oil event on oil trading?

Bruxville Jim 15:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:45 GMT // Come on, if the market moves by 50 pips you can make net 47 pips out of that with 3 pips spread. 1.3600/03 buy at 03, 1.3650/53 sell at 50. Where does the '10 pips' effective spread come in?

Fort L. 15:19 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Anyone here using 5Minute Forex and EX Trading Forex system from Beau Diamond?? Results???

bkk cad 15:17 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
STG/YEN is getting close, look for cable turn around when she turns.

Spotforex NY 15:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
yes you did Zorro.....

I remember your call quite well!!!!!.

EU ZORRO 15:12 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

GOES B747 15:07....Excelent observation...!!!!

....I said that when Euro was @ 0,82...!!!!!

sydney gvm 15:12 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:03 mate - still pretty amazing you started trading an FX fund at 19 - hats off to you - I was still studying econ 101 at that age

GOES B747 15:07 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
no way the markets manipulated ... lol !!!
EUR/USD needs to go 1.43-1.47 ... this is my only observation for the market action after the # ... maybe USA makes what ever they can (they can!) to bring money into their markets.

gt all

Bkk Thailand Cad 15:05 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney: let me update those for you:

Death toll
Sri Lanka: 17,640
India: 8523
Indonesia: 27,174
Thailand: 1439
Malaysia: 65
Burma: 90
Maldives: 55
Bangladesh: 2
Somalia 100
Tanzania 10

Total: 55,098


Lagos BA 15:05 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
It wont. sentiment is too much in favor of a weaker USD. Market will be volatile for a while though.

gold coast martin 15:03 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
sydney gvm 14:59 GMT December 28, 2004
LOL....sorry typo ...should be 15 years....wish i had started at 9.......

Spotforex NY 15:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
If the dollar cannot rally off this number...then it is off to 1.38 for the euro.

HK Kevin 15:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 14:54 GMT, yeah. There is no "easy money" in the dictionary of FX.

GENEVA FHR 15:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Consumer confidence 102.3

Spotforex NY 15:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
102 for US Consumer conf...much better....

sydney gvm 14:59 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:54

no need to disclose if you dont want

so you have been trading fx since you were 9 years old huh? - noted your earlier comment that you are 34 years old and this fund you have has a 25 year track record ? ;-)

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:59 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
intc is major sell

Spotforex NY 14:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I find that it is never 'easy' but there are days when the probability is weighted to one's style of trading.

FWIW - every trade that i put on always 'feels' the same during its initial entry period...and that is a quesiness in the stomach whether or not I am gonna be stopped out (JUBBed).

Whether it ends up being a 5 big figure winner or a 100 pip loser - they all feel initially the same at the beginning.

as I noted yesterday:

"the market can remain illogicial longer than one can remain solvent" as quoted in the Gartman Letter.

Risk management is the key to longevity.

I was referring to this post:

Jkt Rick 11:54 GMT December 28, 2004
for a short term trade and easy money, sell 1 million euro at market 1.3625 for atleast 1.3500

gold coast martin 14:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   


sydney gvm 14:45 GMT December 28, 2004
Remember,when calculating an annualised return for the fund, this long term strategy has been amalgamated with short and medium term trades....without disclosing confidential info in public all i can tell you is that it has yielded good results as it has over the last 25 years...if you wish get my email from Jay and i am happy to telll you the annualised return......g/t

rome mimmuz 14:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold dipping under 444 might be a valid early bird...

gt all, nice to be back here once in a while.

sydney gvm 14:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 14:48

'R' .... huh?

GENEVA FHR 14:52 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
That is not the point.I trade markets where the spreas is the smallest and this market let me put bids or offer.Thats all.It is a simple question of odds.If i had access to EBS i would day trade currencies.

GOES B747 14:50 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
".......Munich Re"s announcement that they estimate EUR 10
bln in exposure from the quake is a reminder that European insurers may be as much or more exposed than US firms."

gt

dc fxq 14:49 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:45 GMT

on that basis, why bother to trade at all?

gold coast martin 14:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   


sydney gvm 14:45 GMT December 28, 2004
R

sydney gvm 14:45 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:14 GMT December 28, 2004

So if I had given you US$100 Jan 1, 2004 whats it worth now? Whats your annualised return over the last 5 years using this 'long term strategy'? [mine is 17.24%]

My clients sitting only at $109 for calendar '04 so I am not dumping on you just interested in what your strategy has made (as is every g'censored allocator I meet)

GENEVA FHR 14:45 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Jim it is not a question of 10 pips spread.Take a simple deal
where you buy euro at 42 when quotes is 39-42 thats is already 3 pips then you resell it at 65 quote 62-65 thats is an another 3 pips = 6 pips.Then the price your broker quotes you is never the real price. So assume 2 more pips that is 8 pips.Euro is the smallest spread so other currencies will have
bigger spreads.Dont forget that through a broker you cannot bid or ask their prices.Do your calculation.

Dallas GEP 14:45 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
From my perspective, day traders are best served the less exposed from the standpoint of time they are in a positon, This is particularly true of pairs like gbp/usd and gbp/jpy. Other pairs like eur/gbp and eur/chf can be safely held for longer periods of time tho.

Lagos BA 14:43 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Any body know when the eur call will finish playing out
?

Dallas GEP 14:40 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF longs were closed.

GOES B747 14:39 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:26 GMT // about your calculation, you are right; day traders cannot afford to hold positions due to simple fact that account will blow when market goes 0.5% against their call.

gt

Bruxville Jim 14:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:26 GMT// 10 pips average spread? You must be skewing your figures...

According to your logic, the ideal trade would be a buy&hold for a decade, so that it only costs 10 pips (your spread) in total or only 10$ per year per lot. LOL

Using business terminology, who cares about costs anyway if they are consistently exceeded by revenues?

Dallas GEP 14:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Took profit on last eur short...not much there...+6 pips

london ross 14:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
thank u :)

GOES B747 14:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA FHR 14:26 GMT // do you really think that most of people use $100K and above as initial deposit?

gt

GENEVA FHR 14:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Paris whatever the broker you have the result will be the same

Paris 14:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Geneva, change yr broker will be the best advice for u.

london ross 14:29 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
sell mor gbp

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
C ya later Valdez

GENEVA FHR 14:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
People don't realise the cost of day trading. just do a little math. Imagine a day trader doing 5 deal a day 200 day a year.Spread and slippage cost him around 50 pips per day x 200 days = 10'000 pips for one year = 100 big figure.

OK SZ 14:25 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Good day to all, I just posted a good article which I get each morning from the daily pfenning in the Help forum. You might find it interesting. GL, GT everyone

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:23 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor//TKS amigo. E/$ peak to me has topped out if you go by past peaks for the last couple years. This one has me puzzled. To me it has to correct big time about now to see 1.40s. If you look at 10 year Swissy chart the all time low some years back was still some 300 pips lower than today..so if you go by "range", then USD still has at least 300 pips yet to go making this one mutha of a peak. If you go by the synthetic E/$ chart, ditto as OMIL pointed out yesterday. I'm long E/$ at this point with tp at only 10 pips and have no long term plays active. Day trading only as much as I hate it. Gone, bye, GT all.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:17 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 14:06 GMT December 28, 2004
I didn't mean to offend you amigo, of course you're perfectly correct. Myself, I gained some 1.5% yesterday in day trading alone, that makes your point. However I'm on pins and needles all day as a payoff too. I guess it's whatever comfort zone one wishes to nest in. GT amigo, kick some butt these last few days of 2005!!!

I only tout longer term trading because I feel there is too much posting for day trades here in proportion to swing and longer position trading such as Martin and BC and I tend to do. Lack of longer term posts doesn't mean however everyone here who day trades does not do medium trades and I know that..just trying to encourage pros to post their long term moves. Out for the day...must attend other stuff. GT all. Was in and out this AM..how was the Red Book Report? (appropriations)

prague viktor 14:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez..Hi amigo..nice to see on line again its seems the euro is not ready to short it yet...ur input is very wellcome G/T

bkk cad 14:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I see no signal to sell Euro yet. euro/yen also holding up.
EUR/YEN support is building at the 1.40 level on the back of a weekly breakout from an elongated ascending triangle, so perhaps it would be a nice long term trade to pick it up at 1.40 as one can use a very short stop at that level. imho

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Data out in 1 hour. I look for some squaring out of dollar shorts prior to then. USD/CHF while it DOES look bearish seems to short term have stabilized at 1.1315/20 area. GBP also has turned down and euro probably will follow although not at the same rate of course.

Bkk Cad 14:11 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
cable/yen is tanking now so you'll see cable a little softer here. Best to try and pick up longs again toward 1.93 for 1.95 with very short stop is doable.

Bkk Cad 14:09 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Took profits on cable long and now short for 1.9320 but best to close profits on cable shorts WHEN GBP/YEN get to 1.99 imho

Bruxville Jim 14:06 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, you know very well that decent returns can be obtained by trading intraday (even intra-hour). One gets more trading instances that way, so equity curve can be either smoothened or made steeper. jmho.

Sydney.. 14:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Tsunami Death toll

Sri Lanka: 12,909
India: 8523
Indonesia: 21,000
Thailand: 1439
Malaysia: 65
Burma: 90
Maldives: 55
Bangladesh: 2
Somalia 100
Tanzania 10


Total: 44,193

Dallas GEP 14:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd @ market

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 14:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable/yen and Euro/yen
both going up
198.5 to 199
and 139.4 to 139.8
Might be good entry

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 13:14 GMT December 28, 2004
That's my philosophy too. Patience and conviction one's position was placed correctly to me is the gold of FX. Where so many people lose is the skittishness displayed by some here..the longer term you trade the less your risk and you can't go into this with $50 and a small 7 Up.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:44 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I would short Nasdaq any time these days

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:42 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Nasdaq...Sorry for the mess

Tue 12/28/04 08:41 AM 2,363.94 1,882.57
Tue 12/28/04 11:41 AM 2,363.60 1,882.22
Tue 12/28/04 02:41 PM 2,363.25 1,881.87
Tue 12/28/04 05:41 PM 2,362.90 1,881.52
Tue 12/28/04 08:41 PM 2,362.55 1,881.17
Tue 12/28/04 11:41 PM 2,362.20 1,880.81
Wed 12/29/04 02:41 AM 2,361.84 1,880.45
Wed 12/29/04 05:41 AM 2,361.48 1,880.08
Wed 12/29/04 08:41 AM 2,361.12 1,879.72
Wed 12/29/04 11:41 AM 2,360.76 1,879.35
Wed 12/29/04 02:41 PM 2,360.39 1,878.98
Wed 12/29/04 05:41 PM 2,360.02 1,878.60
Wed 12/29/04 08:41 PM 2,359.65 1,878.22
Wed 12/29/04 11:41 PM 2,359.27 1,877.84
Thu 12/30/04 02:41 AM 2,358.89 1,877.46
Thu 12/30/04 05:41 AM 2,358.51 1,877.07
Thu 12/30/04 08:41 AM 2,358.12 1,876.68
Thu 12/30/04 11:41 AM 2,357.74 1,876.29
Thu 12/30/04 02:41 PM 2,357.35 1,875.90
Thu 12/30/04 05:41 PM 2,356.95 1,875.50
Thu 12/30/04 08:41 PM 2,356.56 1,875.10
Thu 12/30/04 11:41 PM 2,356.16 1,874.69
Fri 12/31/04 02:41 AM 2,355.76 1,874.29
Fri 12/31/04 05:41 AM 2,355.35 1,873.88
Fri 12/31/04 08:41 AM 2,354.94 1,873.47
Fri 12/31/04 11:41 AM 2,354.53 1,873.05
Fri 12/31/04 02:41 PM 2,354.12 1,872.63
Fri 12/31/04 05:41 PM 2,353.70 1,872.21
Fri 12/31/04 08:41 PM 2,353.28 1,871.79
Fri 12/31/04 11:41 PM 2,352.86 1,871.36
Sat 1/1/05 02:41 AM 2,352.44 1,870.93
Sat 1/1/05 05:41 AM 2,352.01 1,870.50
Sat 1/1/05 08:41 AM 2,351.58 1,870.06
Sat 1/1/05 11:41 AM 2,351.15 1,869.63
Sat 1/1/05 02:41 PM 2,350.71 1,869.19
Sat 1/1/05 05:41 PM 2,350.27 1,868.74
Sat 1/1/05 08:41 PM 2,349.83 1,868.29
Sat 1/1/05 11:41 PM 2,349.39 1,867.84
Sun 1/2/05 02:41 AM 2,348.94 1,867.39
Sun 1/2/05 05:41 AM 2,348.49 1,866.94
Sun 1/2/05 08:41 AM 2,348.03 1,866.48
Sun 1/2/05 11:41 AM 2,347.58 1,866.02
Sun 1/2/05 02:41 PM 2,347.12 1,865.55
Sun 1/2/05 05:41 PM 2,346.6580 1,865.0862
Sun 1/2/05 08:41 PM 2,346.1934 1,864.6164
Sun 1/2/05 11:41 PM 2,345.7259 1,864.1437
Mon 1/3/05 02:41 AM 2,345.2556 1,863.6682
Mon 1/3/05 05:41 AM 2,344.7824 1,863.1897
Mon 1/3/05 08:41 AM 2,344.3064 1,862.7084
Mon 1/3/05 11:41 AM 2,343.8275 1,862.2242
Mon 1/3/05 02:41 PM 2,343.3458 1,861.7371
Mon 1/3/05 05:41 PM 2,342.8612 1,861.2472
Mon 1/3/05 08:41 PM 2,342.3738 1,860.7543
Mon 1/3/05 11:41 PM 2,341.8835 1,860.2586
Tue 1/4/05 02:41 AM 2,341.3903 1,859.7601
Tue 1/4/05 05:41 AM 2,340.8943 1,859.2586
Tue 1/4/05 08:41 AM 2,340.3955 1,858.7543
Tue 1/4/05 11:41 AM 2,339.8938 1,858.2471
Tue 1/4/05 02:41 PM 2,339.3892 1,857.7370
Tue 1/4/05 05:41 PM 2,338.8818 1,857.2241
Tue 1/4/05 08:41 PM 2,338.3715 1,856.7082
Tue 1/4/05 11:41 PM 2,337.8584 1,856.1895
Wed 1/5/05 02:41 AM 2,337.3425 1,855.6680
Wed 1/5/05 05:41 AM 2,336.8236 1,855.1435
Wed 1/5/05 08:41 AM 2,336.3020 1,854.6162
Wed 1/5/05 11:41 AM 2,335.7774 1,854.0860
Wed 1/5/05 02:41 PM 2,335.2500 1,853.5529
Wed 1/5/05 05:41 PM 2,334.7198 1,853.0169
Wed 1/5/05 08:41 PM 2,334.1867 1,852.4781
Wed 1/5/05 11:41 PM 2,333.6508 1,851.9364
Thu 1/6/05 02:41 AM 2,333.1120 1,851.3918

istanbul e.t 13:41 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GOOD DAY FELLOW TRADERS... AFTER FAIRLY GOOD RESULTS SO FAR FOR THIS YEAR I AM ON A WRONG LEG WITH EURO/USD SHORTS AT 1.33 WITH MATURITY MID FEB. ANY SUGGESTIONS MOST WELCOME. THANKS.

GOES B747 13:39 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
closed EUR/USD shorts at b/e ... corrently, market does not willing to price the positive USD data from recent weeks.

gt

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
NZ Range
Tue 12/28/04 08:36 AM 0.7282 0.7185
Tue 12/28/04 11:36 AM 0.7279 0.7182
Tue 12/28/04 02:36 PM 0.7277 0.7180
Tue 12/28/04 05:36 PM 0.7275 0.7177
Tue 12/28/04 08:36 PM 0.7272 0.7175
Tue 12/28/04 11:36 PM 0.7270 0.7172
Wed 12/29/04 02:36 AM 0.7267 0.7170
Wed 12/29/04 05:36 AM 0.7265 0.7168
Wed 12/29/04 08:36 AM 0.7263 0.7165
Wed 12/29/04 11:36 AM 0.7260 0.7163
Wed 12/29/04 02:36 PM 0.7258 0.7160
Wed 12/29/04 05:36 PM 0.7255 0.7158
Wed 12/29/04 08:36 PM 0.7253 0.7155
Wed 12/29/04 11:36 PM 0.7251 0.7153
Thu 12/30/04 02:36 AM 0.7248 0.7151
Thu 12/30/04 05:36 AM 0.7246 0.7148
Thu 12/30/04 08:36 AM 0.7243 0.7146
Thu 12/30/04 11:36 AM 0.7241 0.7143
Thu 12/30/04 02:36 PM 0.7238 0.7141
Thu 12/30/04 05:36 PM 0.7236 0.7138

GOES B747 13:35 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bahrain Within 10 Pips // may you call NASDAQ's range for 2005 (also feedback about 1920-2450 range)?
what you think about 2350 as closing for 2005?

gt

dc fxq 13:35 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
LONDON e 13:12 GMT

while I perosnally use that platform, I find the data you referred to somewhat suspect and prefer the IMM CoT report as an indicator.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:33 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable forecast
Tue 12/28/04 08:33 AM 1.9502 1.9293
Tue 12/28/04 11:33 AM 1.9522 1.9313
Tue 12/28/04 02:33 PM 1.9542 1.9333
Tue 12/28/04 05:33 PM 1.9562 1.9352
Tue 12/28/04 08:33 PM 1.9582 1.9372
Tue 12/28/04 11:33 PM 1.9602 1.9392
Wed 12/29/04 02:33 AM 1.9622 1.9412
Wed 12/29/04 05:33 AM 1.9642 1.9432
Wed 12/29/04 08:33 AM 1.9661 1.9452
Wed 12/29/04 11:33 AM 1.9681 1.9472
Wed 12/29/04 02:33 PM 1.9701 1.9492
Wed 12/29/04 05:33 PM 1.9721 1.9512

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:29 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable 1.9325

Roumeli anka 13:27 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Here is my update for usdchf. I expect a new low this week as wave-3 of 5. After that a multimonth revovery of usd as wave-4 of 5 before the bear usd market resumes for the final leg.
Happy new year and good trades for all

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf2812.gif

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:23 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Yen 102.35 area?

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 13:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
NZ?

Dallas GEP 13:17 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Your welcome Jake. Quite frankly last 2 days have been pretty uneventful for me. London bring out I guess has put a damper on things for the time being.

gold coast martin 13:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   



Bruxville Jim 13:01 GMT December 28, 2004
Jim...i have posted this before....i establish an overall yearly position...a quarterly position and a monthly position and trade daily within these directional perimeters....when market permitting....it is a pre-requisite of the fund....this years yearly direction was correct for 6-7 months after which it turned the other way....to capital preserve,i liquidated my long term shorts and re-built when market has been going north...in between there have been daily trades with the retracements....in forex conviction to stick to your position and the ability to fund the conviction are essential to a long term trader waiting for the direction to turn..you cannot have one without the other....unfortunately.....good luck whichever side of the fence you are on....

LONDON e 13:12 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
http://fxtrade.censored.com/resources/trastats/entrysummary.shtml#
censored = o a n d a /// o&a

LONDON e 13:11 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Im wrong http://fxtrade.censored.com/resources/trastats/entrysummary.shtml# shows the majority of traders long USD.

Bruxville Jim 13:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Martin, you should admit that both of you have the style of sticking to your opinion (i.e. being dollar bullish) no matter what happens. This doesn't necessarily make one a good long-term trader.
I understand you have a different style - you try to profit from counter moves as well. In effect, by holding long term Aussie shorts and playing short term longs, you continuously cover your shorts and reopen them at better levels. This of course sounds wiser than just doubling up as the market goes against you, which is what Rick is doing...

oslo oskar 12:52 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bkk Cad 12:36 GMT December 28, 2004
Why are you all so positive USD?

then why are u so dollar negative, the indicators say oversold

GOES B747 12:47 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
taking EUR/USD shorts with 1.3664 as s/l

gt all

gold coast martin 12:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 12:41 GMT December 28, 2004
LEAVE ME OUT OF IT ....a TRADER WITH DEEP POCKETS WHO TRADES MEDIUM TO LONG TERM INSTEAD OF WORRYING ABOUT daily swings is always in front consistently in the long term.....btw..i am in front for the year.......g/t....

Bruxville Jim 12:41 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Rick, it seems to me there are basically two options - either you are a millionaire (deep pockets) who doesn't care about losing huge amounts of money or you are demoing. Not very relevant to FX Forum either way...

Reminds me of Gold Coast Martin somewhat:)

Gothenburg XON 12:38 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
My view is still that EUR/USD vill print 1,3750 before this week has ended. A break above 1,3640 will confirm this to me...

Lets see..

Bkk Cad 12:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Why are you all so positive USD? the USD index tells another story

Cbj Jake 12:07 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning Gep - Nice call on chf. I laughed! You caught me completely hypnotized by another currency. You woke me up - as is your wont. You often show me a bend in the road my "peanut" would never have thought of. Thanks

GOES B747 12:05 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 11:54 GMT // better to play for 50% @ 1.3585/90 and place there s/l for the other 50% @ 1.3611 ... imo

gt

Bruxville Jim 12:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 11:54 GMT // There's no easy money...

Jkt Rick 11:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
for a short term trade and easy money, sell 1 million euro at market 1.3625 for atleast 1.3500

LONDON e 11:53 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Long USD/CHF at 1.1334. BUY USD.

HK [email protected] 11:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
HI to all.

I think trader should refer to the USDX as a compass(kind of a grail) in this market, for target hunting.
Though the Euro has the largest weight in that index, targets should be based on that parameters, as it brings the weights of the crossings too.

By the way did any one of you took care, that the earthquake took place on full moon, when the pull of the moon on the tectonic plates reaches maximum, and may have acted as a trigger.

Now scientists are discussing what effects will that quake and the Tsunami will have on the rotation of earth.

Likely it will affect the nutation of the rotating axe of the earth, a phenomena called Chandler_wobbling (with a harmonics of 433 days).

Commodity traders of tropical oils (Coconut copra and Palm oil ), have to notice that this calamity likely will result in reduction of supply.

I have a different view for what has caused that mass mortality, so please do not be in a hurry to blame God, it is largely a political problem and human error too. So I shall post it on weekend. GL/GT


london e 11:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Buy USD here. Low of USD for the year just printed. Buy here.

Lagos BA 11:39 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
My suspicion is that this might help the gbp/usd up beyond 1.94 to 9450. Given the average correlation b/w the pairs

Lagos BA 11:37 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Some eur/usd 1.3650 options expiringat 13650. Anyone know when they are to be triggered?

GOES B747 11:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bruxville Jim 11:13 GMT // good afternoon Jim, no s/l for my JPY positions due to the fact that BOJ/MOF control the timetable of bringing the true out ... when looking on the multi-year charts a miscalculation of few weeks/months is possible so I will not try to say that I am right while markets judge me for the opposite.

let's meet when GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY print below 120/175 as first leg ... somewhere during 2005 and before 2008 sub 100/150 at least ... did you see the digital 3D maps of Tokyo?

gt all

Bruxville Jim 11:13 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:41 GMT // Still expecting 136.50 this year? S/L above 141.00/50?

Brussels ML 10:49 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi viies,

I hope you will keep posting your excellent market views :)

Tallinn viies 10:40 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
good day all, hope u r doing fine.
euro has moved nicely toward my/our direction during last 24 hours.
4 days to go and 350 pips away from magical 1,4000.
keep buying the euro and enjoy the sweet taste of money :)
and dont forget to get out of long euros on 31st.
best level to go long today would be area near 1,3550/55 but probably we dont reach there today. even 1,3595/00 seems to be out of touch today.
personally planning to take some profits today near 1,3695/1,3715 area...
take care

Hong Kong Qindex 09:53 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

prague viktor 09:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:41 GMT December 28, 2004..no mate isnt the case..but its good to understand the BOJ.and how they will play the game IMO they are the mkt maker...and BTW ur calls for the long run are just great..G/T and a happay new year..

GOES B747 09:41 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 09:26 GMT // if you tried to remind my call for EUR/JPY below 136.50 still this month ... I will tell you that your reminders have no need, everytime I see the equity balance of my account I can see the same time that I was wrong :)

gt

GOES B747 09:35 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 09:26 GMT // simple rule says that factory must always make money; if the money will not come from USD/JPY then the factory will make it from EUR/JPY.

EUR/JPY between 145-150 will serve Japan to cover the fall of USD for a while ... any price above 137/- is great short ... IMO

it looks that very soon European govts. will import vehicles for their ministers from USA ... think about that :)

gt all

cambridge HC 09:32 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Hi friends, does anyone know of a FX Trading or Info platform that will allow me to access live feeds of data, both intraday and historical into an excel spreadsheet? For instance what was the OHLC for 23rd Dec. I know bloomberg does, but that is too costly, esignal does intraday, but does not provide historical data.

prague viktor 09:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 09:14 GMT December 28, 2004..g.day mate do u see it as a factor to drive the eur/yen to 145-150level..TiA.G/T

Dallas GEP 09:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/chf at market

GOES B747 09:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
good morning all,

does changing the brand name BMW to BBQ (first, only in China) have in impact on FX markets?

gt all

Ldn 09:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Italian business sentiment falls to 88.9 in Dec from 90.1 in Nov, lowest since March, research center Isae says.

perrie como 08:43 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
anyone heard about free tax billionairs centers with massive leveraged sht term to long term spread p-folios, have already been cought on marging short term so have to liquidate long term bonds US pfolio.

as a result It seems strong flows on euro and gbp hitting as a tsunami options volatility

Hong Kong Qindex 08:14 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment    Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Syd :-( 07:35 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
12/28 10:00 US Dec Consumer Confidence 94.0 90.5
12/28 10:00 US Nov Existing Home Sales 6.75 mln 6.75 mln

Hong Kong Qindex 07:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Colorado Chief 07:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening everyone... Here's a question for someone...

I am watching the GBPCHF as it is channeling sideways, while the GPBUSD is rising and USDCHF is dropping.

The question: Where is there a relationship to correlate the movements of the GPBCHF with? Example: EURUSD rises & USDCHF drops. Is there any such relationship for the GBPCHF, or any way to correlate it to any other currency pair? or, is does it move "on its own" without any correlations?

Appreciate the help... THanx
Chief

Helsinki iw 07:15 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Good morning, I hope everybody celebrating had a good Christmas. After the EUR/USD broke the resistance at 1,3475/85 it has moved strongly higher. The next point is at 1,3895/05, so there is still room on the upside even though we are trading at overbought levels most of the time. Appreciate your comments Shanghai bc, and agree with you.

Bkk Cad 06:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Honestly, the biggest problem is that some traders are always looking for the top or bottom to enter a position instead of just taking a position on the bottom or top of a channel or trend line and ride the wave. Once I made 10 losses in a row trying to sell into a cable top with bear traps.
Trade of the day: Take a look at the CAD 8th hourly candlestick chart, as you can see, CAD has taken out stops on the up side and is now ready for a move down within the next 12 hours. 1.2110 should be an easy target.
But then nothing is written in stone (as my old broker used to say to me fairly often).

Bkk Cad 06:07 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Cable: I'm using the weekly ascending wedge and looking for a top of 1.95 in the next two days, will take half profits at 1.94 (with trailing stop of course). I also got some CAD and will try for the 1.2050 level tonight, although I'd be happy with 1.21.
(Note: Nothing is written in stone and this is not a safe time of year to trade in are volume is thin).

LA fxnew 05:56 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
hi ..
anyone still trade today???
I need an advice on cable pls ..

Thank you..

Sydney 05:24 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg Live now -- prediction on currencies etc for 05 now

toronto dr unken kat 05:10 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
nostradamus predictions

EUR/USD Bid Predictions
Range, Date, Start, End, High, Low
2 Hour ,12-28-04,04:00,06:00,1.3614,1.3626
8 Hour ,12-28-04,00:00,08:00,1.3692,1.3602

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:34 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Back 2 U GEP, I just closed several E/$ shorts as of seconds ago for meager gain..tired tonite..am tempted to overnight short E/$ to 1.3550 but something says no..frankly I don't feel confidence in what it'll do.These days funnymentals don't count nor threats of intervention, & virgin territory emerges for this pair every time we turn around...so am flat 4 the night happy w/ trades today. Tomorrow hopfully Valdez's broadband wireless connection emerges- but here..what they promise is usually not what is delivered..wish me luck.

If we look at 3 year E/$ chart, compare this peak from 10-13 (now) to past peaks (11-7-03 to 4-27-04 ~AND~ 3-28-02 to 8-12-02) to get an idea of where we may be heading. Appears to me that the pair has topped out again & needs to correct before advancing to proverbial 1.40s. Say down to 1.29-1.28. That's if past history counts any more, which I think it does.

BC..noting your posts below, is this about the way you see it also since you and I are medium term traders? Your coments would be most appreciated.

Dallas GEP 04:12 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Well Valdez, I have a short order waiting on EUR @ 1.3605 with 1,3615 stop. That is all currently mi amigo.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:00 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
GEP//howdy amigo..have U any trades active right now?

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:48 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Hola all...hope all like the holiday volitility as I am. Heart goes out for Asian disater. Am on live platform finally, welcome Valdez-aroo to 21st century! Omil, glad to see you & others using synthetic E/$ model I've touted the last 6 months, will make U some $$. Swissy has 300+ pips to go to equal the all time low btw..that much is real..so I suspect 1.38 easy money..if factoring in Euro's pounding of CHF, yet more to 1.40. Intervention as I stated 1 month ago is a null. Spec is all the way to E/$ 1.60 according to Gilmore I see on the Analysis link although that looks a bit rad to me. Did my damage for today..1.52% increase in my acct...sleep beckons. GT all.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.3553 - 1.3678 is 1.3616.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 28, 2004
EUR/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle (27/12)


... 1.3053* - 1.3178 - // 1.3303 - 1.3428 - {1.3553} - 1.3678 - 1.3803 // 1.3928 - 1.4053* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:33 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The sentiment may change if the market is trading below 1.3553.

gz jianzhu 03:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I sold EUR on 1.3595,who can tell me how to do?

Dallas GEP 03:20 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I think there is SOME significance to the fact that the last 7 or 8 15 minute candles have had no print higher vthan 1.3603 on Euro. There seems to be a base developing here. Longs could be tired IMO with a stop @ 1.3585. Or conversely SHORTS with a stop @ 1.3615.

Syd 03:08 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
BANDA ACEH, Indonesia (AP)--Emergency teams attempted to reach remote areas in Indonesia's quake and tsunami-devastated Sumatra Island Tuesday as the government estimated that up to 25,000 people on the island alone had been killed.

"We don't have confirmed data, but I think between 21,000 and 25,000 people (have died)," Vice President Yusuf Kalla was quoted by state news agency Antara as saying late Monday in Medan city, where he stopped after making a trip to coordinate relief efforts on the effected island of Sumatra.

Rio 03:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Sao Paulo, could you tell me the source of your information and the full name of tha fund?

Obrigado

SAIHAT Right & happy new year & second 02:38 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
0.7909 0.7912 R4
0.7852 0.7854 R3
0.7817 0.7817 R2
0.7808 0.7809 R1

BUY 0.7747
Stop 0.7733

0.7752 0.7759
0.7738 0.7740

0.7668 0.7668 S1
0.7659 0.7660 S2
0.7624 0.7626 S3
0.7567 0.7570 S4

May work may not

shanghai bc 02:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

AMC -- I am a medium-term trader..What I mean is,once the medium-term trend is set,I tend to trade in that direction till the medium-term trend chages..And that includes many short-term and medium-term trades in the direction of medium-term trend..As you will have noticed,forex market has recognizable medium-term trends lasting two to six months in any given time..And trading with medium-term trend gives a trader a much better odds in the long-run..

Atlanta-South 02:28 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc// Thanks for your response. Not Day Trading @ this time, but have in the past. More of a Short-Medium Term Postion Trader. 1.40 does look more promising @ this time, but need to watch for a sudden change. I'm saying 1.40 1st, then things could change. GL GT.

ny amc 02:21 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai.BC.....I was curious as to whether you were always just a medium/long term trader

San Pablo, Brazil 02:13 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
the hedge fund C&A has entered long in the market at 1.3585
This found is integrated for more than 3000 (people) and is operating + 500000 lots.
The effect will be apreciated tomorrow.

shanghai bc 02:04 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

MIAMI OMIL--Good morning..A tragic event for many in south east Asia..China is lucky this year with not many natural disasters except some minor earthquakes in Taiwan and China's west..Some folks seem to work harder than Chinese even on forex front even during the holidays..Good trades.

shanghai bc 01:58 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

ATLANTA -- Good morning..We can only bet on odds in this game..For medium-term players aiming for 1,000 pips or more,the odds are moving in favour of Dollar as Euro moves deeper and deeper into overbought territory..But they need a decent room to turn around too..For short-term,the odds are, it will enter 1.38--1.40 region with not much problem..Of course,I am not addressing day traders..Good trades.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:52 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I hope you are having a Happy Holidays BC in the mist of the catastrophe on your side of the world. I was thinking this could of happened before the 140’s would hit this pair but with out the intervention from the banks I think this pair might overshoot the O/B levels and actually hit the synthetic targets in the 140’s before any real correction may set in. I will take it one step at a time and I will let the price action tell me when this will start happening in the mean time tight stops on the orders and we shall see when the wheels come off this train (trend) IMHO. Happy Holidays

Atlanta-South 01:44 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc// ref 1:33 are you saying Option players could be getting ready for the ultimate reversal of $? Not an Option player, so I'm just trying to make sure I understand. For what I know it sounds like a plan. What are your near term thoughts for EUR/USD direction? Seems to want to test 1.3550.

Sydney 01:41 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Magic

Sydney 01:39 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc your last post was a touch of majic as usual. many thanks

shanghai bc 01:33 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   

The thing to notice is all the pairs, except Eur/Usd and Eur/Jpy,are still below this year's high or low..And Eur/usd is obviously in medium-term overbought territory, with eaxtremely overbought area only in a few hundreds pips distance..For good sized Euro bulls who can send Euro several hundred pips in any direction at their whims,it is already a time to start medium-term bear campaign on Option front while still pretending a die-hard loyalty to Euro on Spot front.. Fwiw..

Global-View Research 01:30 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Bearish Dollar In 2004, Bearish In 2005 (FXA)

It is usually unwise to read much into thin year-end markets, but the new high in euro/dollar reached Monday in the Americas' session is surely symptomatic of growing consensus that the dollar downtrend has months more to play out. Record US external imbalances require record lows for the dollar...and with just 5% above the record low (euro high) hit in February, plenty more new dollar lows can be expected. This is especially so when one considers what little is being done to address low US savings and high foreign savings that drives the US current account deficit... See full update on. Click Here

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:11 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Another day of $ bashings brings new highs for the eur/usd pair. Here are the latest numbers I could crunch on my system. The retracement has been shallow so I will throw this numbers in as well. These are the retracement numbers from last week’s bullish channel 3600-10, 3580-90, 3560-70, 3540-50 and 3515-25. Happy Holidays

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Key target 3560-70 and main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3565-75, 3525-35, 3485-95, 3445-55 and 3405-15.
Retracement numbers are 3520-30, 3445-55, 3385-95, 3325-35 and 3250-60.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3475-85, 3370-80, 3290-3300, 3205-15, and 3100-10 for now key retracement number is 3445-55.
Support T/L 3400-10 and 3330-40.
Support is around the 3580-3600, 3520-40, 3480-90, 3440-50, 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3380-3400 area IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 01:01 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
OK well real short term shorts from 1.3610 should net 10-15 pips

Atlanta-South 00:56 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep-Thanks for that. Watching & standing aside now. Caught 12 pips of that last EUR/$ move.

Dallas GEP 00:55 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Trader, need to look at 2 hour 20 period moving averages. Price action will normally makes us touch that line within 12 hours.

Notice eur/jpy longs

Syd 00:55 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Talking live on Bloomberg Asia

Syd 00:54 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Stephen Green Seniour Economist Standard Charter see China raising interest rates 60-100bpt next year "05

Dallas GEP 00:52 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Good night RB, take care

Ldn 00:52 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia VP
Up To 25,000 May Have Died In Quake, Floods

london rb 00:51 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
good night all i need go my baby is ill .

Syd 00:47 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY Offers Weigh on Aud/USD

Dallas GEP 00:46 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta South I don't expect much of a dip on EUR/USD. I think during Asia we MAY see 1.3560 but no LOWER IMO. Watch the yen pairs they will determine eur/usd level. USD/JPY will probably need to print 103.40/50 for euro to get to 1.3560. EUR/JPY longs will support eur/usd to a certain extent. GBP will move more and to the 1.9250 level IF 1.93 is broken

london rb 00:36 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
i have noticed traders like me look at charts, but i also look at governments and what there planning this year ive won $20,000 dollars not bad, tony blair will not win next election, he does not listen to us.

Sydney 00:33 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC yes I would appreciate that thank you - I have been hearing this around the market over the Christmas break with some good analysts again thanks

San Diego DC 00:30 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 23:21 GMT December 27, 2004
San Diego DC according the cycle you mention , we should see the Dollar low in this cycle on Monday 3rd jan or there abouts ?

For the major cycle due on Jan3-4, plus or minus a day, when going into this time period if EUR/$ makes a high, then there is high probability to see change in direction (retracement/reversal). If on the other hand, EUR/$ makes a low goinginto this time cycle then it will be bullish continuation. The market will tell us the right direction at that time. I will keep you posted if you are interested.

Syd 00:28 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   


JPN ECON: Nov Industrial Output Up 1.5%, Retail Sales Up 0.7%
Nov Retail Sales +0.7% y/y, -0.6% Eyed
Nov IP +1.5% m/m, +1.9% Eyed, +2.8% Seen In Jan -METI
Nov Employment Slumps, Dec Tokyo Core CPI Down 0.4%
USD/JPY Down To 102.84, Unemployment Surprisingly Down
Nov Wage Earner Household Spending -0.7% y/y Nov Unemployment 4.5%, An Unchanged 4.7% Eyed
Tokyo Dec Core CPI -0.4% y/y, -0.3% Eyed

Atlanta-South 00:27 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dallas Gep: what low do you see for EURO/$? What about 1.3560 or LOWER? Thanks.

london rb 00:26 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
dollar will go low usa love it export good for them, i watched that film the day after tomorrow, bit like seing real life in Asia scary

Dallas GEP 00:22 GMT December 28, 2004 Reply   
I think jpy pairs will go long again tonight so look for EURO to print lower GBP also

 




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Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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