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Forex Forum Archive for 12/29/2004

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SanFrancisco Analyst 23:47 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
I have been informed I have lost a friend in Taiwan from the Tsunami. Yet I know he has always been a positive soul. He once told me that "nature is more than man, but we must be good."

I understand now, he said it with a smile years ago as he tought me. I cannot post for a few days.

Mtl JP 23:44 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
valdez 15:59 / the linked piece talks in part about the reasons for usd decline. The days - the first 100yrs of what made America great - of American dollar exchangeable for gold or silver are now replaced by worried dollar holders who are eyballing the fed govt issuing more and more paper fiats as means to finance its outlandish promises and threatening people who hold dollars with "legal-tender laws", inspections and outright confiscations under guise of terror war. In the old days, people knew that while government could crankup the presses, the value of their real money – their gold and silver – would simply rise along with everything else relative to the falling value of the government’s debt instruments. They now know differently. That is why politicians hate gold as it is a very public signal of how much the government is debasing its fiats. Gold's price expressed in the number of dollars is simply an indication of how much their "currency" is dropping in value.

It will be interesting to listen - and probably more important to try to gage investor reaction - to Bush's upcoming speech for lies / truths / (about his intended spending) in an attempt to shore up peoples' willingness to continue to have confidence in the greenback.

Syd 23:31 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Its quite incredible , but from the time of the quake its sad that nobody realized , so many would have been saved , it took 2hrs to reach Sri Lanka's northern seaboard

"No elephants are dead, not even a dead hare or rabbit," he added. "I think animals can sense disaster. They have a sixth sense. They know when things are happening." LINK

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:28 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
If you had closed when I posted, you would have closed at the peak. Hope so.

Syd 23:27 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF December intervention data due this morning . any sign of MOF action may make speculators cautious testing USD/JPY's downside.

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:27 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 23:11 GMT December 29, 2004
In China, for many-many years they've used caged chickens to prewarn earthquakes. They get nervous and fidgety in a certain way know to the trained chicken watchers who check them constantly..this is true. The Chinese are amazing at noting simple organic agriculture and every day life things that if employed in the outside world would make it a much better place. What sounds funny sometimes is so basic that we skip over it. Ask Einstein. Why don't lions eat clowns? They taste funny.

Atlanta-South 23:25 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Quito_Ecuador_Valdez//Just closed & took the gains. Time to rest & get ready for another day.

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:14 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta, tks amigo..exit now..it's ready I think...hope I'm not stearing you wrong but it's leveled off a lot. Many who know much more than I do, ref USD drop..say 1st Q next year will see more drop..some say into 2nd Q. My model said that 6 months ago. My model is a modified sine wave curve of 10 years swissy history melded with the synthetic Euro/USD 10 year fxtrek chart (after all they had to morph it with some basis factors) plus a little hunch factor. We should see USD gain ground again starting late 2nd Q next year to 3rd Q...a little far off yet to see over the horizon but that's the general layout of my model. On help forum I've blogged over the months about why this sine wave occurs with majors..has to do with the general world wide plan everyone says I'm nuts to propose thinking I'm an Iluminati fighter. I don't fight them, I win because of them and their pattern. GT. HNY.

Syd 23:11 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   


Experts: Tsunami Kills Few Animals

Atlanta-South 22:49 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Quito_Ecuador_Valdez// Thanks for that response. I too am needing rest & will soon close my trade I mentioned. It is better to rest while ahead I agree. That 0230 time is a good time. I'd like to say several months back when you kept saying EURO would continue its climb til years end, I had alittle doubt. That goes to show not to doubt experience, but pay attention & see what happens. It is ALWAYS GOOD to get your thoughts & insights. Thanks from a TRADER still learning after 3+ years.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:45 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
I might add for new traders, I lost a few days of news so the news about Japan "might" sell some Yen over the New Year passed me by..how nice it would have been to cast a few lots into the E/Y pot today. Oh well..drop my guard and that's what I get..one of those fish that got away. Lesson to all. Although the soothsayers predict lots more USD fall 1st Q, this should be nearing or at peak...based on past peaks from 2002. Wouldn't be surprised at all if major correction didn't come like 5 cents before the final attack on 1.40. 10 year swissy chart indicates USD can fall 300-400 pips from present to still be within range...that takes us almost to 1.40.

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:37 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta, no, I didn't close because I figured the chart would descent..in fact I think likely it will keep its ascention mode albeit slower than from this AM's nice blocky predictable topography. It's because I am tired as hades, seeing double, satisfied w/ day's wins. If I over do it, I eat up profits..those "oh why the H didn't I just stop when I was ahead!" times have taught me a lesson. Tomorrow's another day..wana get shut eye to get online at 0200 EST before the first actions starts at 0230. Ever notice that?

Atlanta-South 22:26 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Quito_Ecuador_Valdez: By closing these are are you thinking down now for EUR/$? I'm still in a long EUR/$ from 1.3595 thinking 1.3635 might be hit. What are you thoughts please?

quito_ecuador_valdez 22:16 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Closed all E/$ layered possies put in at dip this AM..had to wait this one out but patience pays..played E/$ all the way back, in & out, to where it is. I am not bragging, making a point to new traders to be patient. 3 possies didn't t/p overnight..should have..email to platform provider..no response yet..goes to show, ain't a perfect world. Up 1/2% on acct today..can't complain. London, take this monkey.


quito_ecuador_valdez 21:59 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Rather than to post long articles it's a space saver to post a link to said material. I.E. good article on USD: HERE . In 2005 there will be a GV learning center with tips on lots of things, and how to do this.

London. 21:54 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
The euro's rise could not have come at a much worse time for euro-zone officials. Recent data for October showed the trade surplus narrowed to EUR5.5 billion versus EUR9.18 billion a year earlier, while EUR3.7 billion in capital flowed out the region. Early in December, the ECB downgraded its 2005 GDP forecast to 1.4%-2.4%, from 1.8%-2.8%, analysts say that while the euro may make further gains in the short term, there is probably some relief ahead. Euro-yen trading accounts for only around 3-4% of global foreign exchange trading, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements. That means the pair tends to track each currency's movements versus the dollar. The yen has lagged the euro's climb versus the dollar in recent weeks for two basic reasons, said Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. One is the market's belief that Japanese intervention to stem the dollar's climb is more likely and that it could have a major impact on short-term dollar/yen pairings. Investors don't want to get burnt on the wrong side. The other factor is that while investors are long accustomed to euro-zone economic weakness, the deteriorating macro picture in Japan in recent months has surprised some analysts and offered the dollar some support versus the yen. Some analysts said that euro purchases by central banks are also giving the single currency an extra step up. Yet with the concerns about Japanese growth largely priced in, analysts at Bank of America said in a research report Wednesday afternoon the "European currency outpeformance against the (yen) has hit its peak." The impact of dollar weakness on the euro zone means the region's economic outlook is unlikely to change much. And in a widely held view, they said that Asian countries will likely start to take more of the burden of dollar weakness in 2005, once the Chinese government moves ahead with some form of yuan revaluation. Rob Carnell, senior economist at Lehman Brothers, notes that the euro's rise versus the yen, while unwelcome, is not a fatal blow. Whereas the euro zone's trade with the U.S. makes up around 16% of its total, trade with Japan amounts to just 3%. The euro zone's leading trade partner is non-euro-zone E.U. countries, followed by Asia ex-Japan. Since many Asian countries keep their currencies linked with the dollar in one form or another, that means euro-zone officials will probably continue to worry more about euro strength versus the dollar than versus the yen. So many currencies sort of quasi dollar-pegged, causing a large chunk of the world that Europe is losing competitiveness with. dj/reuters

Memphis Charles 21:50 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Test

Syd 20:50 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Yen Drops to Record on Speculation Japan Will Sell Its Currency The yen fell to a record against the euro and dropped by the most in three weeks versus the dollar on speculation Japan will sell its currency during the New Year holiday.

CHICAGO (AFX) -- The dollar soared against the yen in early U.S. trade on thinking Japan would sell its currency during the country's coming holiday season. At 8:23 a.m. Eastern, the dollar was trading at 104.13 yen, up 1.07 percent from Tuesday

This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com

dc fxq 20:37 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Yes, certainly possible but with out any mention of such action on IFR, MNI, etc I'll remain a skeptic.

Thanks for your source info!

prague viktor 20:35 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
IMO..the Euro/yen will make the mega show with the help of the BOJ in the next weeks to come G/T all

Syd 20:35 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq (Dow Jones ) also with a thin market it is possible , BOJ have been as you know the most successful - and take advantage of the lack of participants in the market

ny amc 20:28 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
San Diego..........So you " day trade " more than position trade

dc fxq 20:24 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 19:58 GMT
Point is it has not been widely circulated aND WE HAVEN'T SEEN 10200 yet. What is the news source repoorting such? Neither IFR or MNI made any mention of this "rate checking" in the past few days.

Syd 20:04 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq if you check yesterdays Japanese dealers have seen BOJ checking prices and the post says December 03 if you Look , nothing to say they wont do the same if the Yen breaches 102

dc fxq 19:58 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Syd 19:36 GMT

That was last year, not this. If you inferring MoF intervened today you best believe it would have been on the news wires and not even a mention of "checking rates" was seen.

Syd 19:54 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Germany could be stripped of its triple-A credit rating if the government's reform drive comes to a standstill, two Standard & Poor's analysts warned Wednesday.
Speaking in an interview with German newspaper Boersen-Zeitung, Moritz Kraemer, S&P's director of sovereign ratings, and ratings analyst Kai Stuckenbrock said that although Germany's current ratings outlook is stable, the government should not get complacent with regard to structural and political reform. Low economic growth rates will make it difficult to shoulder the burden of an aging population.
Kraemer said that the euro zone could see "dramatic" ratings downgrades in the next five to ten years, if its twelve member states do not address the problem of low growth and negative demographics.
boersen-zeitung.de

San Diego bobl 19:51 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
NY amc...
My carry trades (not meant as true "carry" trade, but as winners end of day) are in 55-60% average. Sometimes better, sometimes worse. By exiting losers early however, I have found that I tend to trade less and avoid the big hits. Big hits are the number one account destroyer imho.

London. 19:45 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
GENEVA (AP)--The international Red Cross said Wednesday that it feared the death toll in Sunday's earthquake and tsunamis in the Indian Ocean could top 100,000.

"We're facing a disaster of unprecedented proportion in nature," said Simon Missiri, Asia Pacific chief at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. "We're talking about a staggering death toll."

ny amc 19:42 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
San Diego.........I was wondering if you dont mind what percentage of your trades are day trades versus position/medium term/long term trades . the latter trades all being grouped together versus the day ones. Thanks.

Syd 19:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Japan
Bank of Japan intervention totalled USD 23 billion in December 2003 virtually all in the last days of December

San Diego bobl 19:25 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Unfortunately missed yesterday's exchanges on day versus position trading, however I can share one piece of advice for beginning and/or struggling traders. That is, don't take home a loser. Whenever you are "done" for the day, if your trade is in the red, dump it and you have no baggage to bear. I still adhere to this simple rule after many years in the battlefield. Thus, my daytrades are the losers.
Note: on larger accounts/trades legging into a level is normal

San Diego bobl 19:09 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Euro/Pound/Yen...may try lows before US close; I'm sure everyone aware of year end squaring, however if not, consider that large specs tend to capture profits for year/quarter results and also "dress" portfolio's to conform to best appearance for client reviews. This often leads to spikes in markets not necessarily in line with spec opinions. It's not unusual to see countertrend movements.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 18:38 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
In conjunction with Euro figure previously posted, the USd upside has yet to really show conviction to charge upward through previous days highs. Time now becomes a factor.

NY NY 18:34 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Jkt Rick 15:29

poor taste in words in your euro scenario. some 100,000+ dead from a real one.

Cbj Jake 18:26 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Good question JV - I've owned au stks for a while and Yes! they play me like a fiddle! I practice non-resistence and do all right, Ah! the games they play. Have to keep an eye on dxy as you say - goes below .8000 it will not stairstep eh?

mks london 18:24 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
this is time to turn back, since yesterday buy$. do it before big fish start. ?? becarefull......

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 18:24 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
It is appearing the challenge is wether or not Euro bears are really going to challenge 1.3550. If not, a prime time to buy.

Van jv 18:04 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold, DX. Inflation//
possibly EU and US much more concerned about inflation than EUR/USD levels at this time. Thus control /intervention in gold may be more effective on both fronts......can "they" do it?

Cbj Jake 17:46 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold down -$8.00 and usually the au stks would have panicked. Today,Newmont down -1%, Goldcorp -.7% etc.
So far, nothing serious is happening according to stocks.
Great discussion last night on day/position trading - the Forum at its best:contrary, spirited but polte and respectful.
Many thanks -

San Diego bobl 17:37 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Euro support at 12/24 and 12/26 highs 1.3550 area tested today; Cable support levels established 12/09 and 12/10 reverse H and S shoulders and retest 12/22. Technically, these levels fall we should see some follow-through pressure to downside (suspect lots of retail stops there). We'll see, but sets up nice opportunity.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
NT I hope you are having a good holiday. Intraday indicators are unwinding from O/B levels so I would not rule out a test or a break of the T/L again. I have no buying signal on my system for gold either so that means it is still trying to find a support. We are in a correction mode right now and buying on dips is still the mood for the market until the major supports are taken out. I posted this before about this pair.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:08 GMT December 27, 2004
Gold has reached key target 443.60-70 and also running on the bullish channel to test the main target (466.95) for this bullish move. The key target for gold in the long run still remains (468.91) with main target at (493.50-60) IMHO. Happy Holidays

oslo oskar 17:27 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
and is AUD support at 7740?

hong kong nt 17:21 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
OMIL -- guess spot gold may hold above 430 and start an upleg to 465-470...

gold coast martin 17:21 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL...FOR AUD....7678....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:09 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
As suspected eur/usd bears were not thru yet and are testing the T/L once again if broken then we shall see the next support tested.
Gold has come down hard today and bounced from the T/L (433.20-30) area. Next key support is around 427.50-60 and 422.50-60. Bottom support (429.40-50) should hold for now IMHO. GT

dc fxq 17:00 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
iIt looks as though some of the small leveraged accounts who played yesterday and Monday have een spoofed today. Perhaps they'll have another shot at it Friday and next Monday. Euro looking heavier than GBP right now.

HK Kevin 16:56 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the EUR 8-hr chart, the last 2 candle is making a higher high and lower low, which indicate big guys is distributing at the high. It's likely the market is about to turn.

San Diego bobl 16:50 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
SF Rudolf...
Of greater significance is the movement in gold. The recent fallout in gold ($15 daily move) and resulting large gap in futures predicated failures in major crossess to dollar (euro/cable/yen). Today's gold fallout, currently over $9 basis feb futures, suggests further failure in majors against buck. Also of note, in the pound the failure comes off technically perfect diamond pattern ( almost identical to S and P diamond formed 99-mid 2000). I believe lower levels coming.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 16:43 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Well first real challenge of US stock futures upside rejected. Off to greener pastures for a bit. Heartfelft condolences to those in Asia effected by the tsunami.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 16:15 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
If anyone is monitoring US stocks as a barometer for the USD today (bearing in mind the correlation is hit and miss), S&P Futures are challenging an upside break as I type after an initial selloff. Perhaps this would add weight to USD longs considering USD longs did not react to initial US stock weakness.

Atlanta-South 16:12 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Just signed in. Can anyone adv what possibly next for EUR/$? Thanks.

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 15:54 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
I've seen no evidence of Euro longs being built agressively. Euro is still short in my view, although destined to change at some point coming up. I'm out here on a EurGbp long @ 7088 from about 20 lower however from the Asian session which doesn't seem to want to go any further. Downside accelleration below Euro 3550 clearly an issue being tossed around.

Jkt Rick 15:29 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
euro/usd 1.3585 can everyone smell a tsunami coming up in this pair.

Bkk Cad 15:24 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Cable longs beware here, stg/yen may take another shot at 1.9850

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:21 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
So far this bounce for eur/usd pair is sustained mostly by the crosses eur/jpy and eur/gbp.

dc fxq 15:18 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
wellington am - you could be right of course but MoF/BoJ are usually not very subtle. Generally they like their moves well publicized.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:17 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
It should read Gbp/usd bounced from the T/L not testing.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:16 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Gbp/usd is testing T/L at 9110-20 area next support if broken is around the 9040-50 area.
Eur/usd bounce from T/L at 3550-60 area next support if broken is around the 3520-40 area. With intraday indicators unwinding from O/B levels there is still some room for another test at the support for the bears IMHO. Happy Holidays

wellington am 15:10 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Well, I'm no expert, but to me the recent sell off across eur/cable/ozzy/kiwi etc. looked like it was fueled by some BOJ buying - $/yen ran up to resistance at ~104.20, before running out of puff, and is now back down below 104 as the weight of usd selling continues.

gold coast martin 15:08 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 14:57 GMT December 29, 2004
....true..i posted earlier on today on the other side that the euro at 135+ has got the smell of crude at 55......

Livingston nh 15:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - Cable looks to be in most trouble here as it approaches last week's low around 1.91 - it's rally attempt to get back above 21 da sma failed and daily MACD has been down mid month move towards 1.96 - next stop 55 da ema?
USD/CAD is clinging to a rising 21 da sma after failing to stay above the 55 da ema breakout - MACD is poised to rollover so maybe some short term weakness BUT the rising 21 da sma should cross 55 ema for the first time since Fed started hiking rates - this looks bullish if the averages cross
USD/CHF needs to clear 1.15 level to turn bullish but there is some room for pips between here and there even if it fails at 21 da sma
Surprise may be the USD/JPY which has just crossed back above 21 da sma - if it can close above we may see the 1.06 level challenged again
AUD/USD has daily MACD trying to rise again but the declining 21 da sma is stabilizing after the mid month fast drop below .75 - maybe some short term strength but looks poised to test the 21 da line again under .77
EUR is spiking against sterling and the yen -- EUR/USD is not being supported by MACD on this last run so at least a test of 1.34 (~21 da sma) seems likely -- next week flows may throw all of the above into the digital shredder

Tallinn viies 15:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
hourly stochastic crossed higher from oversold area.
stop sign just turned off.
go sign turned on.

Auckland 14:57 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin thanks mate... something smells to me in this pair...

gold coast martin 14:51 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Auckland 14:47 GMT December 29, 2004
Sorry i dont trade it....got smoked 4 years ago trying to master it...at the end i stopped trying....

Tallinn viies 14:48 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
and if you dont know what to do, just sell O/N eurusd out the money puts. at least something in your pocket and if you are lucky you get cheap euros under market

Auckland 14:47 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin tell me please are you trading EUR/GBP and if yes do you have 0.7112 pivot

Atl TJ 14:40 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: I you believe that history is likely to repeat itself here are some numbers for EURUSD for the month of January. Data covers 30 years. Up means Close > Open

Up 9
Down 21
Up Percent 30%
Down Percent 70%
Avg Up 206
Avg Down -384
Max Up 455
Max Down -1024

IF Dec closes Up then:
Dec Up and Jan Up 6
Dec Up and Jan Down 11
So 65% of the time if Dec closes Up then Jan wil close Down.

So for the month of January I will be looking to trade the Short side Heavy and the Long side Light.






Tallinn viies 14:18 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
hourly trendline comes in at 1,3535/55 area. suggesting try longs from there...

oslo oskar 14:15 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
and all along i thought that it was called support and resistance not reistance and resistance but then i call a spade a spade by saying buying not longing - i suppose terminology doesn't matter that much but it sure as h&ll is confusing

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:15 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
..E/$ fall stopped just after it punctured the Dec 16 resistance line...am longing it.

gold coast martin 14:09 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD res. at 7708....

gold coast martin 14:08 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
..next point of resistance for cable 19124....

Andorra Qwerty 14:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
"Contrarian Work System" trades :
- Sold Eur/Usd 1.3621 ... target 1.3 at least
- Bought Usd/Chf 1.1325 .... target 1.2 at least
- Holding Sell on Gbp/Usd from 1.945 .... target 1.87 at least

Next move should yield at least 2k pips.

Good trading to all

dc fxq 13:57 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
very plausible scenario viies, it is what I would look (and hope) for as well.

Tallinn viies 13:55 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq - from last year I remember 1st of jan hedge funds pushed it down 100 pips, then late comers ( corporates) pushed euro toward new highs.
31 dec 1,2575 close
low on first trading day 1,2475
during next 2 weeks up 400 pips.

this is exactly the scenario this year. depends of course where we start this game
first down 100 and then up or opposite :) first up 100 and then down 400.

dc fxq 13:42 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
agreed viies, that is where things stand. I wonder how aggressive any fresh positioning will be. From what I saw in the past few days the action looked like relatively small fish leveraged accounts were "playing" in a virtual vacuum.

Tallinn viies 13:39 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 13:31 GMT - what do you think they do?
big guys short already. small fishes still long. corporates almost done for dollar selling.

rome mimmuz 13:38 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
eyes on XAU attempting 442 support, and JPY @ 103.60

gt

dc fxq 13:31 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
viies: just pulling your leg, sorry if I offended you. I'm impatiently waiting for the new year to see what real money is going to do after the holidays are over. :)

Tallinn viies 13:24 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 13:02 GMT - you know as well as I do that rates may derail long time from macro numbers. one day they react on it and probably even over react to other "nonsense" area... and rates will move again :)
like we like it to do

Spotforex NY 13:06 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   

Tsunami videos and pic


I am just saddened by this event and even outraged by the comments in one of blogs in the photo gallery area (Hullmet Issels area).




dc fxq 13:02 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
"coconut butter doesnt support eurusd strenght also"

neother do EZ fundamentals

Spotforex NY 13:01 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:11

That is amazing about NO animal carcasses found in the Tsunami hit areas.

Maribor 12:51 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Well, I will think about it...

:-))

Tallinn viies 12:46 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
coconut butter doesnt support eurusd strenght also

Maribor 12:37 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD strengh is not confirmed in the price of gold, so as bulish at it seems, correction is expected down to ~1,30

Dallas GEP 11:52 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/gbp shorts at -11 pips too bullish at this time

Haifa ac 11:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
We have only two possible scenarios. 2 days to Year's end. Funds who have been long (Stocks or euros) either lock in profits, or believe there will be another Rush (Not libmbaugh) first 3 days of year with new asset allocations mgrs. Right now it seems the second option is stronger.

Dallas GEP 10:29 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Data out shortly

Tallinn viies 10:01 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
I share your view Athens about correction possibilities but Im still convinced it can not happen before this year is over.
so basically during the next 3 days we will see move higher OR standing at the same level and then on the first trading day everything is possible 1,4 or 1,35

london ross 09:56 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
eur=virgins first sex night

Haifa ac 09:53 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 09:45 // Yup. Nothing like a nude broker! (Sharon Stone!)

Stockholm AGuy 09:45 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
london ross 09:42 GMT:

Being located in decadent Scandinavia, I for one favour topless trading. ;^)

london ross 09:42 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
I think We are the top :)

Haifa ac 09:38 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Athens 09:30 GMT // Good post. Add to that 34 months and you can have a deadly combination.

Geneva 09:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Athens- I 100% agrea with u. We are near the top. looking
at monthly chart its so over bought, we have the perfect conditions for mega correction.

Happy new year.

Athens 09:30 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Is the market trying to close the year with EUR/$ around its highest levels whichever they might be this week?

Here's an interesting historical case which I described again a long time ago. It refers to the huge USD decline during 1985-87 when $/DEM collapsed by more than 19,000 pips. On December 31 1987 $/DEM posted the year low at 1.5670. On the first trading day of 1988 and shortly after opening in Asia it dipped to 1.5610 for a new low of the gigantic downtrend and on the same day it rallied to 1.5895. The next day it surged to 1.6335 and a day later to 1.6700. That was the beginning of the long term corrective USD uptrend which lasted 1 1/2 years and brought $/DEM to the major top 2.0470 in June 1989. Next we saw the new megacycle of USD weakness which brought $/DEM down to 1.34 in 1995 before correcting up again. I am not saying that we shall see the same picture but it may be worth keeping a few historical long term major market movements in mind. PS I traded at 1.5615 that night long $/DEM as a broker friend of mine called me on the phone from the Far East, so I hit the absolute bottom, but unfortunately I took my profit in the mid 1.57s shortly after...

A Happy and Prosperous New Year to everyone here.

gold coast martin 09:27 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:21 GMT December 29, 2004
LOL...That accounts why there are always tremours coming from new zealand....it is caused by sheep who tremble, every time they are told it is for seismic purposes only by the locals....

.btw..The cable is ready to move to the 19167 side during the course of ny trading......

Dallas GEP 09:21 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
YES AC, could be. There are some eartquake watchers that use goats as a early warning to a pending quake. The goats react quicker than the seismic equipment in most cases.

Haifa ac 09:21 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Singapore 09:16 GMT //Retest of 66 area in '05

Singapore 09:16 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:02 GMT December 29, 2004
your EUR/GBP target?

Dallas GEP 09:14 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
BIG SWISS data out at 10:30 could be VERY market moving

mks london 09:11 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
hello mr nigerian
la fxt 08:19 GMT December 29, 2004
try to do something inplace of doing fraud with people.

Haifa ac 09:11 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
One amazing thing about the tsunami is that NO ANIMAL Carcasses are found. COuld it be they sensed the Tremor and fled?!

Haifa ac 09:10 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:36 GMT December 29, 2004
Earthquake death toll hits 68,000// The numbers grow by the hour. So many bodies are burried hurriedly to prevent deadly epidemic--that we will never know the real toll. They throw figures bigger than 100k now! even double!

prague viktor 09:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:46 GMT December 29, 2004..thank u mate for this good advice ..yes .that it will be the big story for this century G/T and a happay new year(hopfully very peacfull year)

Haifa ac 09:02 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP is about to have a small tsunami.

Dallas GEP 09:01 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
closed usd/cad longs....1.2160 may hold for time being

Dallas GEP 08:46 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/gbp at market 20 pip stop

Ldn 08:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Earthquake death toll hits 68,000

The death toll from Sunday’s Indian Ocean earthquake rose sharply to 68,000 as officials in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand and India made contact with remote regions and sharply raised their estimates of the number of dead. Dec 29 2004 | Read
http://news.ft.com/world/asiapacific

la fxt 08:19 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
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SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 08:13 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Yes, it would appear the Reuters data I reviewed has been overlapped now noted by Reuters by a new pledge of the EU being "ready to release up to $30mil" up from the original $4mil. Thats more how it should be at this stage. Regarding my intentions, you're still wrong.

Q : Will this amount cause any further economic tightening in the EU, or would more be required ?

Tallinn viies 08:06 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
GOES B747 07:48 GMT - no its not. as easy as earlier,
watch only and u see. 3days to go

GOES B747 07:57 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:46 GMT // good morning, maybe this time taking a black spider for a ride on your back will not prove as deadly chance taking.

the problem is that most people see reform in islam as western people drinking alcohol middle of countries with religious islamic majority, seeing woman walking half naked in the mosque's garden, or making porno film inside a mosque.

real estate: I am in since 6 months ago; will not for 30yrs but only for 3-5 ... I do not see this 'peace' keep on going after the donation funds will find their ways to 'safe heavens' far-far away from the middle east.

gt all



Phuket Waverider 07:52 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 07:48 GMT December 29, 2004

Yes, I am in Patong.

Tallinn viies 07:52 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 07:47 GMT - means now correction done.

Phuket Waverider 07:48 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Your facts are wrong and your sources are innacurate, and the post which you mirrored in the political forum was clearly intended to make a political statement of; USA good - countries at bottom of this list - bad

Do you really think people outside America are so stupid they cannot see through such transparent crap that you post here?

Stockholm AGuy 07:48 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 07:36 GMT: "they were posted for factual content"

Yeah, right. The quality of your "facts" is well known to all here by now, San Francisco.
Just to show how off you are: the EU commission alone pledged more than 40 million USD
already two days ago. That's just from the common EU budget (1% of Euroland GDP), i.e. it
doesn't include contribution from individual EU countries and organizations:

http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/041227122358.st7i9bdx

And I must concur with Waverider that you've definitely crossed a line now. You were bad
enough as a rabid political kook. Now you're just plain indecent.

Go away.

GOES B747 07:48 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:36 GMT // good morning viies ... looks like your 1.37xx target is more difficult to take then initially planned.
with $25M you can make sure that junior traders by the BIG names will make mistakes during this season :)


gt all

Haifa ac 07:48 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Phuket Waverider 07:30 GMT // Are you REALLY in Phuket?!

sf mike 07:47 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
viies// can you explain this please? "no correction done already in my view"

Correction done? or Correction not done?

Haifa ac 07:46 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 06:26 /// Actually I see the Shekel as floorish around 4.30. More likely to seek resistance at 5 (shekels per 1 dollar) in the next year. But buying property anywhere in the MIDDLE EAST is the SMARTEST INVESTEMENT for the next 30 years. Once Islam reforms--it will be again the CRADLE of Civilization and the potential for growth here will dwarf Eastern Europe!

Tallinn viies 07:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
LA fxnew 07:16 GMT - trend is up, just thought correction may be bit deeper than previously thought. no correction done already in my view

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 07:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Actually my condolence is sincere, the figures are from international government sources including USAID, and something tells me if the figures were reversed you would not be upset. Regardless, they were posted for factual content.

Plovdiv Gotin 07:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi mates/ Pls E/$ 2003 Hi/Low?TIA.

Phuket Waverider 07:30 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
San Fransico: You just couldnt resist the desire to spread additional political crap disguised as sincere concern for the people suffering and actually trying to make a difference. Not only is your post pathetic but it is innacurate, as for one example Canada offered $3M within 24 hours of the disaster. This is in addition to $40M Baht( approx $1M USD) announced within hours of the disaster by Canadian officials in Thailand. So please do all of us a favor, and keep your sincere bs to yourself in future. KKTHX

Caracas 07:26 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
thanks LA... my problem is more the SL than the target (my initial target is 1.9400), looks like there are not too many experienced traders with us...

GOES B747 07:23 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
2005 range: 1.26xx-1.47xx ... gt all

LA fxnew 07:21 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
caracas:

I am long cable ..
target--> probably yesterday high at 9420

Caracas 07:16 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
any other trader long gbp now?? TP? SL? Thanks

LA fxnew 07:16 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
viies:

so you are saying euro will go up instead of down / retracement like your previous msg?

Thanks

Syd 07:09 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
UK house prices fall for sixth month
House prices in England and Wales have fallen for a sixth consecutive month, research company Hometrack says, adding to mounting evidence that the property boom has ended
http://news.ft.com/censored/s/84227e52-5805-11d9-9940-00000e2511c8.html

what tight arses some of them below.

Tallinn viies 07:06 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Caracas 07:05 GMT - no, dont follow this pair

SanFrancisco Rudolf the Red Eyed Raindeer 07:05 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Waverider - My sincerest condolence regarding this tragedy, glad you are going to be alright. I also feel Unicef is a good donation option.

To date pledges for aid :

US $ 35 Million
JAPAN $ 30 Million
AUSTRALIA $ 7.6 Million
ENTIRE EU $ 4 Million
CHINA $ 2.6 Million
BRITAIN $ 1 Million
CANADA $ 814 Thousand
FRANCE $ 136 Thousand

Caracas 07:05 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn,

do you have also a view on gbp? I am long but worried...

Syd 07:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Overseas investors warned on UK tax regime
Tax advisers are warning multinationals against locating their headquarters in the UK, in a move that could erode its status as Europe's top destination for inward investment.


Tallinn viies 07:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!

euro has survived S&P stories about german ratings.
this also helped to fulfill long waitied correction on hourly charts. would like to see 1,3695/00 and 1,3740/45 within next 24 hours...
good trades. buying favoured

Caracas... 07:00 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
London, do you mind to explain?

Where GBP is heading now??

london.. 06:59 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Caracas - Performance anxiety

Caracas 06:51 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
why gbp is not performing like eur right now??

Calcutta Vikram 06:45 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Oxfam, Americare, Unicef, Network for Good are calling for contributions on YAHOO

Calcutta Vikram 06:37 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
PLEASE, do not for a moment think I am saying those affected in Thailand, Maldives, even Kenya, and ALL the other countries can be ignored. This is an international, shared tragedy. Lets hope 2005 brings peace, goodwill and wellbeing for all.

Calcutta Vikram 06:31 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
kfar saba.....as Waverider suggested, UNICEF might be the best. They reach children directly. Thank you so much for your concern.

Already more than 63,000 are dead and the toll is likely to rise further still

prague viktor 06:26 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac..G.day mate! Im thinking about ur shekel..its seems to be very good invest.for the next years to come ..peace ..is coming..hopfully..and Im hearing about alot who wana to buy somthing in ur nice country..G/T

kfar saba zp 06:26 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
waverider and vikram, hello, please take a look at my post on the political forum and let me know what you think regarding giving to relief organiations. thks.

Dallas GEP 06:20 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/cad at market with 30 pip stop

Calcutta Vikram 06:15 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia, Sri Lanka and India have been the worst hit. As far as I can see EVERYBODY in India is donating liberally, including most politicians who are donating a month of their salaries. Individuals, corporates and state and central governments are chipping in very handsomely.

Phuket Waverider 06:09 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Please consider donating to a charity like UNICEF or ANY charity to prevent further loss of life in this catastrophe, as always it is children that are most at risk from disease and poverty in the aftermath.

Haifa ac 06:07 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
London NR 23:40 GMT December 28, 2004
There have been some crackin' posts tonite!! //
And they dare say the ain't no Santa Clause. The fools!

Dallas GEP 05:51 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
This 1.3630 area decent resistance on Euro. 1.1310 is also support for usd/chf. 140.90-141 also decent resistance on Eur/jpy

Dallas GEP 05:48 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURO at market with 30 pip stop

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:38 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast ///
I don't why and when...But I think 1.37 area today is a little dangerous...Might wanna PT there then pick up at 1.35

Gold Coast 05:34 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
eur correction today? when? why? to me eur looks testing highs again soon

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:34 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
1.3685 area might ok to short for 100 points

Syd 05:29 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Look for Chinks in the Euros Armour eg. S&P if they do go ahead and downgrade Germany's rating , US interest rates go up to 3.75bp ,employment get a boost with over 200.000 jobs etc etc, you many start to see the Titanic USD changing course. If I recall correctly the Aussie had numerous attempts to rally on outstanding data until the markets eventually seccumbed to the inevitable.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:25 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
I think Traders should be aware of major correction in euro today

Singapore 05:14 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast 04:54 GMT - It's a buy on dip market mate.. as many have pointed out.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:13 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
euro is at tommorow's high right now
Longing it 1.3485 today if seen

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 05:07 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
GM...
Longing Cad around 1.2130

Gold Coast 04:54 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Eur & GBp going up again??

gold coast martin 04:18 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
retracement=correction....

gold coast martin 03:50 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:34 GMT December 28, 2004

...looks like we are having another short and shallow retracemt on euro to the tune of 13554.....aussie back to 7748.....a good momentum for day trades....

Above post still applies....g/t

bkk cad 03:49 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Correction: 1.9190 from here, NOT 1.9290 (on the back of stg/yen weakness).
Good day to you all!

bkk cad 03:40 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Yawn! that is to say that the evening star on euro would not be confirmed unless a close below 1.3520 were seen.

bkk cad 03:38 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Euro DLY: Candlesticks seem to be forming an evening star until 1.3510-20 is reached, but then euro has kicked these formations before in a bull market.
GBP: GPB/YEN may keep the buying climax on hold and if
198.50 breaks, then cable can get 1.9290 and then some more.
Short cable/yen, cable, and eur/chf

Buddha said before he died: "I know not where I go", (unlike the said positions i hope)

Syd 02:46 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Death Toll in Indonesia alone risen to 32500

London. 02:31 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
USD rally vs majors runs out of steam, dealers say; but pair likely to hold above yesterday's low of 1.6325 amid concerns that USD may encounter fresh short-covering when London markets, which have been closed so far this week, open later today; dealer says London-based players may take profit on USD shorts vs EUR, other currencies, given talk of possible S&P downgrade of Germany.dj

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:44 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
th// I hadn't thought of that AT ALL..interesting point.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:42 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
FWIW resistance (3580-3600) for eur/usd pair should hold for now. Intraday indicators are unwinding as they were in O/B area. We shall see how deep this correction goes IMHO. Happy Holidays

Hong Kong Qindex 01:42 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Keep an eye on 1.3553!

Hong Kong Qindex 01:42 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Keep an on 1.3553!


Hong Kong Qindex 03:36 GMT December 28, 2004
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.3553 - 1.3678 is 1.3616.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 28, 2004
Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 28, 2004
EUR/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle (27/12)


... 1.3053* - 1.3178 - // 1.3303 - 1.3428 - {1.3553} - 1.3678 - 1.3803 // 1.3928 - 1.4053* ...



Hong Kong Qindex 03:33 GMT December 28, 2004
EUR/USD : The sentiment may change if the market is trading below 1.3553.

Ltn th 01:41 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Valdez. Europe in parlous situation. If US defaults on Treasury redemptions to them they may be caught a little short for month.

Rockford BDR 01:40 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Great point quito. Utopia's look good in print.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:36 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Well, the Euro to me is like a plate of spagetti. You just can't control that many economies and that many ways of thinking without problems. Frankly, Greeks and Italians don't think like Germans or French..not an insult..just a fact..oil and water don't mix. So it is no wonder the Euro is shakey. And I think it is. A single currency is a good idea on paper but like communism, it just doesn't take in the human factor...and this will be born out in the next 5 years. Now as to how Europe will get it's tail out of this mess is to be seen.

Syd 01:32 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Also

U.S. investment banks heavily selling Euros pushing it down 50 pips to 1.3568 on media reports of possible S&P downgrade of Germany's sovereign rating, speculation has been rife S&P may downgrade Germany owing to lack of progress on reforms

Syd 01:30 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
German newspaper Boersen Zeiting will Wednesday carry interview with S&P specialists who say country could well face ratings downgrade if current fiscal reforms aren't carried through. S&P has already downgraded Italy, Greece, and prospect of similar action facing Europe's economic powerhouse likely to at least give those exiting USD for EUR pause
Wire report



quito_ecuador_valdez 01:16 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
El correction may be done correcting?

nyc grumpy 01:03 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   

London. 00:56 GMT

glad i saved my confederate dollars, now that the SOUTH has risen again.

London. 00:56 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Germans Still Holding on to Deutsche Marks
Almost three years after the introduction of the euro, German citizens still seem to have large hoards of Deutsche Marks, their old currency. Branches of the German Federal Bank or Bundesbank still record between 50 and 100 Deutsche Mark payments a day, a spokesman for the bank in Hamburg said. He added that Hamburg alone recorded exchanges of around 50,000 Deutsche Marks in the new currency daily. According to Johannes Korz, spokesman for the Bundesbank, around 8.1 billion Deutsche Marks (€4.1 billion) in notes as well as coins worth €7.3 billion Deutsche Marks were circulating by the end of August 2004. The Bundesbank in Hamburg said that the bank counted more than 3,000 customers in the month of August alone who exchanged around 1.5 million Deutsche Marks. The Bundesbank allows German citizens who still have Deutsche Marks at home to exchange these for free into euros at their branches throughout Germany.


NJ RT 00:40 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Hopefully left a big hole behind ;)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:39 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
All I can say at this point for eur/usd pair is to buy on dips that is what I will do until the wheels fall off this train (trend). Happy Holidays

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Key target 3560-70 and main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Retracement numbers from bullish channel are 3600-10, 3580-90, 3560-70, 3540-50 and 3515-25.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3565-75, 3525-35, 3485-95, 3445-55 and 3405-15.
Retracement numbers are 3520-30, 3445-55, 3385-95, 3325-35 and 3250-60.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3475-85, 3370-80, 3290-3300, 3205-15, and 3100-10 for now key retracement number is 3445-55.
Support T/L 3530-40, 3405-15 and 3350-60.
Support is around the 3580-3600, 3520-40, 3480-90, 3440-50, 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3380-3400 area IMHO. GL GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:37 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
OK, that support line was just punctured.

Tallinn viies 00:34 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
gutten aben
whats up?
poped in to see the closing rates...
seems we may see a bit deeper correction down today toward first retracement level.
max 1,3485/95.
but basically still no serious threat on the horizont....
´good night
cu tommorow.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:31 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
What's it gonna do? Support line could be drawn on the 30 day chart for E/$ from low of 12/16 to present. We've just touched down on the support line. MACD on that chart indicates it hasn't stopped. If we do keep going down then a slight retracement is in store. In light of null effect of consumer confidence positivity today and no interventions thus far (at least as far as I can percieve) then 1.3550 -1.3530 look to me as support possibilities. But that's IF that support line is punctured which at this point it is not quite yet...just touching.

NJ RT 00:29 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : More likely ....thank you

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:28 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Key support to this bullish channel move for the eur/usd pair since 12-24-04 is in the 3520-40 IMHO. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:24 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 00:10 GMT December 29, 2004
Next immediate retracement number for eur/usd pair is (3560-70) and support (3600-3580 and 3520-40) IMHO. Happy Holidays

Sydney 00:23 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
U.N. Undersecretary-General and humanitarian chief Jan Egeland says U.N. hasn't yet put number on funding appeal, but it'll be its largest ever for a humanitarian emergency; "I have made big appeals in the past but this is unprecedented because very many countries are involved Billions of dollars needed to rebuild tsunami-shattered countries "

lomdon ross 00:15 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
1.3514

NJ RT 00:10 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Guys ...seems that eur/usd is heading lower ....where is the next support ? Thank you

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:09 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Charlie 23:50 GMT December 28, 2004
I have posted this before on the help forum but since it is a bit slow I don’t think Jay minds if I put it here for now. First you have to find out if you like this business first do not think that this will be easy money at all. If you do then you will not make it. Everything takes effort and time nothing in this life is easy at all. Learn the technical part of the business that is the easy part of it then you have to learn the physiological part of it that is the part most of us fail and takes more time. Use the archives in the FF and Help forum they should be very helpful. I have talked about many ideas too so you can look me up in the archives as well. It takes time and patience so you MUST LIKE THE BUSINESS to endure the pain you are about to begin IMHO. Welcome and I hope you succeed in your quest. Happy Holidays


Good post as usual BC

Sydney 00:07 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo trader cites talk of MOF checking rates since yesterday's Tokyo hours.
"I don't know whether they actually taken action, but I heard they were checking prices. U.S. hedge funds quite eager to test USD/JPY's downside, they've been ready to sell dollars ever since they came back from their Christmas holidays." trader

Dublin Charlie 00:06 GMT December 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for that , I shall keep an eye on the forum ... tis a good read.

I will put a good deal of reading in before I leap anywhere :-)

have a good one !

 




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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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