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Forex Forum Archive for 12/30/2004

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houston st 23:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

BC -- is the 1.3700 eur$ option still in play or has that expired?...tia and good trades...

dc fxq 23:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:30 GMT

is this company there is some misery, butt ...

rotflma

shanghai bc 23:19 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

JP 17:48 --When those underworld figures start getting into currency deals on a massive scale,that is a usual sign of medium-term to long-term change of that cycle..We had underworld figures of European extraction doing a massive selling of Euros towards .85-82 some years ago and that was it..Same for real estates.When underworld figures started masively investing into real estate in Tokyo,it collapsed in a year or so..These folks are the largest ultimate top or floor pickers of any market ,as far as I am concerned..By the way,millions of Chinese savers stopped lining up to buy Euros recently..Who else is there left to buy Euros now..Maybe the last hurrah by brave underworld figures before medium-term change starts..

Jakarta r4v3n 22:37 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Happy new year to all of u..... see u all next year....

austin edgy 22:32 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
jeez, I feel lucky. Holding at 103. Let's hope for a llittle lift eh?

Philadelphia Caba 22:30 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Me too, guys, av long @ 103.16

dc fxq 22:28 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 22:27 GMT

mine is at 10323. :) You have company at least! LoL

NJ RT 22:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I am still holding on usd/jpy long @ 103.28.

GER ad 21:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY,
Out at 103.11

Vienna GD 21:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez ... again: WHY should the buck rally???
And three years? I can't see the changes ahead, you?!? ... Maybe there's some hope ... but i also consider the "sentiment" toward the us(d) and i don't see that change in the coming years. Or do you think the us will stop buying chinese products? Or Dubya will start saving?
Imho it will get worse ... i expect usdx below 70 within the next (two) year(s). And i already posted my expection that eurusd wont go below 1.27 in the foreseeable future.

Simply because I don't see the "changes" ahead ... therefore WHY should the buck rally (more than a dead cat bounce)?

Ldn 21:23 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Possible Canada Mad Cow Case Fuels Industry Tension
http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7209847

dc fxq 21:22 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
**** 30 Dec 2004 : 19:11(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD Flow - EUR/USD being toyed with by dealers and new highs result

EUR/USD traders seem to be playing games in thin markets. With order flows at the barest of minimums, traders have been pushing EUR/USD higher. Their first target was the all time high of 1.3647, where they hoped to set off stops. Apparently there were minor stops which sent prices through resistance and possibly options interests at 1.3650. In any case, there game has set off stops, breached the options level and sent prices to an intraday high of 1.3667 so far. Levels that are already being dug up again include minor offers at 1.3675 followed by more significant interest at 1.3700. M.B.

**** 30 Dec 2004 : 18:38(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY Flow - JPY is the star performer so far today

JPY seems to be the best performing currency in the markets today. Considering that Japanese banks and corporations have closed down for the year, the guess is that funds are trying to get a jump on the New Year with modest JPY purchases. While USD is going to end the session as the worst performer, JPY's broad based advances, especially its rejection of the new high in EUR/JPY at 141.61, suggests it will end the session as the best performing currency on the day. M.B.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
only thing is, the dollar goes up so do the cars..interesting business philosophy..hedge a gogo.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Well Renault obviously knows something..goes right along with what I'm touting here..shorted E/$ again at 1.3640

Syd 20:59 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
France's auto-maker Renault (13190.FR) is to switch the prices of its cars in Russia from the euro to the U.S. dollar from January 1, 2005, Russian-French carmaker Avtoframos said Thursday, reports Prime-Tass.

dc fxq 20:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd 20:31 GMT

All the best to you and yours as well, SYD!

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:40 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
closed E/$ short at 1.3632..a 'few dollars more'.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Vienna GD 20:17 GMT December 30, 2004 // You're right, E/$ won't rally from here..exactly because we have a serious correction to sustain then we can form another large peak at or somewhat above 1.40. I funded an acct with USD simply because it's "close enough" for me and I make more than the loss of dollar value anyway. Really, check the 10 year chart of swissy here: HERE since swissy was one of the major influences on the synthetic 10 year Euro chart. We still have some 300 pips to go to reach the all time low of swissy so there's room to see 1.40 or higher...berfore the major rollback involving 3 years of gain for USD.

Syd 20:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq happy new year

dc fxq 20:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd 20:13 GMT

I am out the contests now

Syd 20:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
BERLIN, Dec. 30 (Xinhuanet) -- German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said on Thursday that the weakness of US dollar and high oil prices are threatening Germany's economic growth.
"The strongly fluctuating oil price and the weakness of the dollar are worrying," Schroeder wrote in an article for Thursday's Handelsblatt newspaper.
He said he will raise both issues at the next summit of the G8 countries.
"A stabilization of the exchange rate structure needs first of all a balance of existing economical imbalance in the world, the reason for which doesn't lie in Europe," he said.
The chancellor said action must be taken against "massive speculations" that push the oil price upward.

Vienna GD 20:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez .... "I've got dollars here..I don't mind at all if I can accumulate cheap dollars thru income then have them balloon in my pocket in 2 years..gradually of course. I just funded an acct with USD because it's just about time for it to turn around and evaluate..a double whammy."

Hopefully you won't loose your shirt! Do ya think that Warren Buffet is hoarding bucks??? Imho the only folks which are hoarding dollars are some CBs ... and of course maybe Martin.
WHY should the buck rallye from here???

London. 20:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
China has become a net exporter of steel, sparking concern over global oversupply and tougher times for steelmakers.WSJ

Syd 20:13 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 10:57 GMT December 30, 2004
this one is for SYD (yesterday afternoon):


If you took notice the post , I said December 03 , everyone knows they didnt intervene in December 04 .. they came in heavily during the last days of December 03 and early january 04 details below
LINk

Japanese authorities spent a record 20 trillion yen ($192.7 billion) on intervention in 2003 and another 15 trillion yen in the first three months of 2004 -- a huge amount that could offset the U.S. current account deficit of $164 billion in the July-September quarter.


quito_ecuador_valdez 20:13 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tks amigo..I* need serious HELP with my Deutsch. Shorted E/$ #1.3649 FWIW to provide desert for a good day. Now if we'd have retraced a bit today..sheesh, I'd have made the week's take in one move. Fish that got away but have some in the net.

San Diego DC 20:11 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye
You are quite welcome !

Vienna GD 20:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez ... Auf Wiedersehen!

jkt-aye 20:05 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks DC.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:58 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Karl, I sold those 12420 Euros some time ago at 1.31ish but have been trading in and out like a madman since. Doing OK actually. I try to add 1% to my account per day. Today was a gift but sustained stop losses to get it. See you next year amigo. Aufweiterzein! (spelling?)

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Ken, on a broader note, I agree with someone who posted..think it was ITC ML of makoforex...cheapening currency is a paper move by politicians many times..fiat money makes them look good. But it all cycles no matter who's the pres or who's not..it makes little difference..the cycle is the cycle. Check the 10 year swissy chart Ken..we're just fine..just the tail end of the devaluation cycle to permit the evaluation cycle. All's OK.

Bonn Karl 19:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 19:43 / hello friend. Hope you're still holding on to that long 1.24. At 1.40 .... psychological resistance .... 1.40 is only the start ... I'm sure 1.4730 will trade. Been in this business for long, I know lots about cycles.

P.S. I Hope Gold Coast Martin is doing fine ;).... seriously.

Take care friends ... see you mid-January.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Thats true Ken but on the other hand countries who are dollarized like Panama, Ecuador and partial Argentina are exporting countries. It really helps us to have a low buck. Remember when all those cheap dollars are in the pocket and the banks full of export money in 2006 when the USD will have recouped much of it's loses..it's like interest payments with evaluating currency..not to mention the exporters in the USA having a hayday right now. I've got dollars here..I don't mind at all if I can accumulate cheap dollars thru income then have them balloon in my pocket in 2 years..gradually of course. I just funded an acct with USD because it's just about time for it to turn around and evaluate..a double whammy. GT

San Diego DC 19:50 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
london 19:44 GMT December 30, 2004
San Diego DC 19:23 GMT Thank you very much, I pay attention to your following piece..

You are quite welcome. I also want to point out that I use technicals to confirm the cycle direction, so , in other words the final decision is based on technicals.

San Diego DC 19:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
jkt-aye 19:34 GMT December 30, 2004 ,

Unfortunately, I don't know a good source for time cycles, these time cycles are just something I have worked on out of the blue ocean, and used successfully for NASDAQ for more than a year or so, and now validaitng for EUR/$.
I am vaildating now for EUR, so far the record has been 5/5 for either continuation of trend or change in direction. There is always a plus or minus a day sometimes due to non-trading days etc. When I get to validate it for 20-30 trades, I will be more than glad to share with you the method I developed for free of course. So, hopefully by the end of Feb or so, I will have come close to my validation process.

houston ken 19:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cheap buck we have never had this policy before , lets just wait and see where it takes up lol. dont forget lots on countries depends on the power of dollar even america itself because it is a global economy -- what will happen to inflow of capital for corparations when this guys are cashing there i owe you from government bonds

london 19:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
San Diego DC 19:23 GMT Thank you very much, I pay attention to your following piece..

...that means this is a sign of bullish continuation for EUR/$ until the next minor cycle of 29th or so..

glgt

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tks ML, have a fine 05 amigo.
Bonn, things cycle..sheesh fella the buck was lower than it is now at the all time low with CHF some years back and nothing collapsed. It's a 10 year cycle about to repeat..strong dollar in 2006-7 and after 1.40 or so you'll see it reverse to slowly recoup. GT amigo.

Bonn Karl 19:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello friends. Hope everyone's enjoying themselves. You know it's now become official, the USD is The World's Toilet Paper Currency. Sell it big time .... 1.40 here we come ... hehehe.

Happy New Year.

ICT ML 19:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 19:15 GMT December 30, 2004
ICT ML...what's your take..short E/$ or leave it alone for now?

Haven't looked at a chart for a week or so, but I wouldn't sell euros yet, but then I wouldn't buy them here either for medium term stuff anyway. This price action is similar to what it did last year during the holiday weeks, just grinding higher bit by bit, then when the liquidity came back it went for an exhaustion spike and reversed. We'll see what gives next week.

I won't be in the market again until next week. Eur-Gbp seems to be the key from what I've been seeing just from glancing at the ticker every few hours or so the past weeks.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Ken, I for one am not crying..the USA needs a cheap buck. I see nothing wrong with it.

austin edgy 19:37 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
good point houston- buy dips

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:36 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
What I can't understand is all the hype about the US econ..what's so bad about it? It's shear paranoia that is doing this OR the U.S. Treasury helping along. I can safely say the MOF is not going to do a thing nor the ECB after today. Remember all the gripe about pain threshold at 1.32? pah!

houston ken 19:34 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
to all you guys crying about euro highs , just wait till the usa sumits it burget with iraqs bill on it . this guys are not going to get rid of the deficit . you think that euro is high just wait and see. catipulation has not occured yet. like one guy said in this room 3 months ago. keeping buying euro on the dip. censored i love that guy.

jkt-aye 19:34 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
DC ... i'm interest to know more abt time cycles. what's your suggestion on a good source ? TIA

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:34 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Omil..well put! I can't think of any better advice. GT, Hpy New Yr amigo.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 19:21 GMT December 30, 2004
By nature I am mostly technical and I try not to think to far ahead of what is happening. As long as the eur/usd pair does not take out key and major support I will keep buying on dips. As far as January goes that will be another month so we shall see how far this train goes. My new motto for next year is “ride the train (trend) until the wheels fall off)”. Happy Holidays

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Interesting Dolphin! Of course the higher the chart climbs the more probable it has to retrace. Question is when. With the end of year garage sale going on it's hard to analyse, I know that, and wasn't pouncing on Dr. Q. He faithfully posts GOOD STUFF often. In fact it's been said of him he gives too much away.

San Diego DC 19:28 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez ,

Thank you.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
DC..excellent post..you're a thought meister.

Eilat Dolphin 19:26 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez/ Sure, but a look on the weekly (with trend lines) show that we are at one of the major excesses of the last years, even for the best andinists climbers.
Thus the odds are for consolidation.
Remember that out of the 1000 people or so that climbed the Everest, some 200 didn't make it back. And they all died above 8000 meters...

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:23 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I guess Dr. Q's assesment earlier of a dollar revival by closing was believed by many by the tone on the forum today. Not attacking but I hope it didn't cost too many folks too much money.

San Diego DC 19:23 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
london 15:11 GMT December 30, 2004
New Eur Highs later today maybe? TIA

Todays extreme Eur high will be in place for next few days, maybe?(anyone using time cycles on daily?) TIA

I use time cycles.. From my Dec 27th post....

However, there are 2 minor cycle dates before Jan3-4th time, on Dec25th and Dec29-30th. The minor cycle of Dec25th has begun with a low in the area of 1.3510 area, that means this is a sign of bullish continuation for EUR/$ until the next minor cycle of 29th or so. So, give plus or minus 1 day there is a possibility of retracement for EUR from 28th to 30th or so and then bullish continuation until the major cycle date of Jan3-4.

Today's thoughts/ Dec30th:

The above mentioned scenario is still the high probbaility scenario. So, today we will be coming to the near end of the retracement mode and go to a more bullish mode until the next major cycle of Jan3-4. The probability of making a new highs going into the major cycle on Jan3-4 is very high IMHO.

What is even more important is that Euros making new highs going into a major cycle marks a significant point in time for short-term position trading. (Short -term = Cycle to Cycle, could be about aweek to 2 weeks). So, until the next time EUR makes a low going in to a major cycle, the preferred direction will be the change in direction set by the Jan 3-4 th cycle.

austin edgy 19:23 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
thx all- just wanted some feedback. Will peruse the charts again

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OMIL...what think about that pair in January? Consolidation-retrace or just a boom up to 1.40?

Budapest Daniel 19:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I'm expecting the same Omil, holding my long possie since 1.3580

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:19 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
For what it's worth...E/$ is a longing chart right now and no indication of stopping AT THIS POINT if you look at it coldly unbiased.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
The bulls for the eur/usd pair are testing resistance at this point while the pair rides the bullish channel and breaks new highs yet another day. Intraday have turned bullish and are headed back up. I will be looking for 3740-50 to print to close the year on a good note. Happy Holidays

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:15 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML...what's your take..short E/$ or leave it alone for now?

Roumeli anka 19:14 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli anka 13:27 GMT December 28, 2004
Here is my update for usdchf. I expect a new low this week as wave-3 of 5. After that a multimonth revovery of usd as wave-4 of 5 before the bear usd market resumes for the final leg.
Happy new year and good trades for all

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/charts/contrarian/chf2812.gif

venezia cb 19:14 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
if you are looking on the weekly chart,eur/usd is in an overbought situation.i don't believe in a strong rally up before a corection or consolidation is made.happy new year at all!

austin edgy 19:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
eur looks more like a sell? Doesn't look like it will make it up much more

austin edgy 19:05 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
would anyone buy eur/usd now?

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
No comment?

GER ad 19:01 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Long USD/JPY at 102.90 S/L under 102.60

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
btw it isn't just a Euro high...cable is about equal..it's a falling USD.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
GVI John, we'd like your comments sir on what you feel about this USD plunge. TIA

london 18:50 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
london 15:11 GMT December 30, 2004
New Eur Highs later today maybe? TIA


Todays extreme Eur high will be in place for next few days, maybe?(anyone using time cycles on daily?) TIA

glgt

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
OK, where's the MoF now?

lax-lgb SNP 18:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
$/¥ ... $/chf look supported and aud/$ has also tried all week to get past 0.78 while £/$ doesnt look well-supported either
with 24 hrs to go
expecting US$ to bounce back
happy new yr !

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I just logged back on..what a mishmash of crude and irrelevant remarks on this forum today. Can't we follow GVI John's advice please amigos and gobble up some moves here? TIA.

gold coast martin 18:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
San Diego bobl 17:26 GMT December 30, 2004
Get your facts right before you post anything with my name on it....no need o reply....


HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL ....


NY FH 18:23 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Forecasters See Slower Growth in 2005

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/economic_outlook

However, I firmly believe that if we see 3 consecutive months of new jobs being created, then the dollar could/may/will begin its long awaited recovery. This will also have to be in tandem with the trade deficit showing signs of shrinking at the same time at perhaps between 5-10%. Also, the Bush administration will have to reform its fiscal deficit which will probably happen at the beginning of the 2Q.

So, when can we expect a turnaround in the dollar? I think this could happen around the summertime. Again, to add more creedence to this belief one could look at how cyclical the forex market is to know that this current cycle is now reaching a peak. The market works in a channeling pattern. Inside a larger channel we have smaller channels and this is how we should play this market. A classic example would be the Aussie that yesterday gave a buy signal at .7702 (4hr chart) having touched the bottom line of its well defined upward channel that began on Dec 13. Current price .7780. Not bad for a day's work, right?

Anyway, wishing all you traders the best for 2005, whether you are day traders, turtle traders, fib traders, S/R traders, candlestickers, 5minuters, Alexander 3 monitor traders, or just plain "this is what I fancy right now" traders.

GVI john 18:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Can we confine political discussions to the political forum? That is why it exists.

Stockholm AGuy 18:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst 18:08 GMT: "blind anti-amricanism and negativity here"

Where? I see no such thing in this forum.

"I did not make the first such post in here today, I only responded when amazed by the blind negativity."

You responded to a SARCASTIC post which was caricaturing a hypothetical US-bearish stance - and an economic one at that, not a political one. Everybody got that. Except, of course, you...

Sigh.

SanFrancisco Analyst 18:08 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
On second thought, witnessing such mindsets of such blind anti-amricanism and negativity here I wonder if I should be helping at all with my market comments, or anyone else from this country for that matter. Some of you people don't deserve the help.

Regarding trolling with political content .. lets be straight, I did not make the first such post in here today, I only responded when amazed by the blind negativity.

San Diego bobl 18:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Back from break to find I was stopped on cable sell for 20 pips loss and morning trade of gbp/jpy right back to entry level sell.
That is only trade on for me and will square by US close. The new year typically begins a bit slow, but feel by mid-Jan we should have some trading patterns to sink our teeth in.
gl/gt

Stockholm AGuy 18:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst 17:54 GMT: "Why don't we stick to trading ideas."

Why, I don't know, might it be because somebody suffering from an evident case of multiple personality disorder (TG = "Raindeer" = "Analyst" ...) keeps trolling the forum with reeking political BS?

Just a thought.

SanFrancisco Analyst 17:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Why don't we stick to trading ideas. Obviously there is a difference of mindset by eras not years, and in economic and other beliefs.

dc fxq 17:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I think its time to end this series of jibes

not further comments

SanFrancisco Analyst 17:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
JP - "Almost 2/3 of European and Canadian consumers also said they believe U.S. foreign policy is guided primarily by self-interest and empire-building" ?

Those ideas are so pathetic. Come out of the stone age folks.

Balzano PA 17:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 17:42 GMT // Personal attacks?? Are you a patriot or not?

Mtl JP 17:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Analyst 17:21 / usualy giant timber's fall starts out slowly before a heaping collapse. (Yes, it can take a while) Signs of secular trend begining ?

- Almost 2/3 of European and Canadian consumers also said they believe U.S. foreign policy is guided primarily by self-interest and empire-building, while only 17 percent believe that the defense of freedom and democracy is its guiding principle.

- Half of the entire sample said they distrusted U.S. companies, at least in part because of the U.S. foreign policy. Seventy-nine percent said they distrusted the U.S. government for the same reason, while 39 percent said they distrusted the American public.

- 87 percent of German, 84 percent of French, and 71 percent of British respondents have negative feelings toward Bush himself.

- British, French and German consumers all felt that the cultural values of the other two countries were closer to their own than "American values."

GMI World Poll results

ouch ouch: Euro Trash
Even drug dealers are giving up on the dollar

spain (now) enxorizo 17:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
analyst//
yes, comments like that maybe grossly inacurate, but they carry a lot of power to the corral, uh... the market. ;)
With the "democratization" of FX, lot's of people are playing without the faintest idea of what's going on (like me!!). So, they just want some gurus to tell them goin'up!! goin'down!!

And that's why these things actually work... keep hammering the lies, and they will become the truth...

I'm a newbie on FX, but i remember the good ol' days in the 90's with the first online brokers. Heck, i helped the development of the first online broker in my little corner of the world. Did anyone ever even looked at stock analysis, fundamentals, whatever? naa, everybody just bought on rumour, and all the rumours just told you one thing, it's going up. Very easy to trade, those days.......

so, never forget the power of the (sheep)mind..... ;)

and a happy new year!!!!

SanFrancisco Analyst 17:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
My style of trading is likely fairly different than most but I don't see $jpy as a safe purchase yet even though it has not shown signs of agressively dipping under 103 to this point. May need to wait until Asia although it makes a good amount of technical sense to pick it up here. I say this with a notation that I tend to be a somewhat apprehensive trader to begin with.

dc fxq 17:42 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Balzano:

"... the difference between us is that you're a patriot and buying the USD is the right path to follow .... oh sure."

why don't you go back to lurking, first time out in hopw long and into personal attacks?

I guess if I don't think like you I have to be an evel red stater or some such.

austin edgy 17:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
oops- pardon- Dolphin

austin edgy 17:37 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
eliat doplhin- sure looks that way.

Balzano PA 17:35 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 17:16 GMT // Sure US fundamentals are much better than that of Europe or Japan, but, who cares? The current eur/usd rate speaks for itself. And now with US rates poised to rise further, will that make the USD strengthen? ... take a good look at the current usd/jpy and usd/chf levels.

The only way the US is going to trim the C/A deficit is by weaking the USD further. My prerogative ... when 1.40/1.50 on eur/usd is seen, I'll consider switching into USD ... the difference between us is that you're a patriot and buying the USD is the right path to follow .... oh sure.

Eilat Dolphin 17:28 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
edgy/ hmm... three stars to the North, 364 days... and tomorrow possibly a forth star for last day.
Let me think...

Oh yes: Lucky in the Sky with Diamonds!

San Diego bobl 17:26 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Sold cable here @ 1.922; believe this is trade level posted by gold coast martin last couple days; risking 20 pips for 40 pips in daytrade mode. Hard to commit to any bigger trade during US market hours.

SanFrancisco Analyst 17:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Regarding ... "Yep, the US is the only country/curr5ency with problems. Japan, the EMU, Canada, Australia, etc will continue their economic boom times without a worry or care because of their thriving domestic economies."

The only thing more comical than such an amazingly innacurate assessment is the negative/ego driven mindset that drives it. I am finding those with such a view will deny reality without bounds.

In your mind negative French industrial production becomes positive, the record US stock levels are a mirage, the US deficit being a mechanism of economics is considered a western capitalisic death knell, the euro being propped up by the US economic agenda is comically seen as rising on its own merits in an EU "economic boom" hahaha.

Oh boy.

dc fxq 17:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
16:41 USD/JPY: Little Bounce; Some Forecasters Eye 88 in 2005

dc fxq 17:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Balzano PA 17:01 GMT

my perogative just as yours is yours!

austin edgy 17:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd has been making evening stars on the daily for 3 days at 364ish.

Van jv 17:12 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
deficit as such is a problem; imo critical one only when it can not be financed, in the absence of better opportunities to invest

Stockholm AGuy 17:11 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cannes fr 17:08 GMT : "respect other people thinking"

I do. What does astrology have to do with thinking?

Brussels ML 17:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Indeed fr,

it's sometimes strange that ppl firmly believe in fibonacci/gann/EW/cycles etc.. but then are very cynical when someone mentions astrological charts or natal forecasts.
Cuz all are based on the same principals.

austin edgy 17:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cannes fr- keeping it simple usually works best (in most things)

cannes fr 17:08 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm AGuy 17:04

is just for information. you do not have to buy it, but respect other people thinking

Eilat Dolphin 17:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
fr/ Don't tell me Greenspan looks at astrolnonlogical charts too, cause if he does, my brother will short his legs to up to Sirius.

Stockholm AGuy 17:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cannes fr 17:00 GMT: "financial astrology"

Oh dear...

Balzano PA 17:01 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 16:53 GMT // Hmmm .... the sarcasm is interesting, but, as I recall you've been dishing out the same rhetroic when the eur/usd was well below parity and here you are preaching the same stuff ... obviously with little effect.

cannes fr 17:00 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
austin
in addition to my simple thinking
last week i have got a visite of my very old friend who is working since many many years in wall street and is doing a very nice job on financial astrology and e see a positive trend for the us$ at least untill august-september 2005. i assure you he has a very good record on his forecasts

dc fxq 16:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

Balzano PA 16:44 GMT

Yep, the US is the only country/curr5ency with problems. Japan, the EMU, Canada, Australia, etc will continue their economic boom times without a worry or care because of their thriving domestic economies and robust export markets.

I've been around long enough tio have seen the invincible European miracle, the overwhelming dominance of Japan acquistion of everything and of course the Asian tiger group (Malaysia, et al).

Guess I shoiuld just pack up and move to some Euroland (where alles is sehr, sehr gut and not have to wory about it,

Geneve 16:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Your mother in law or your brother without hands, the euro should go from here down!!!.

Happy new year to all.

San Diego bobl 16:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry...1st target of 197.7800

San Diego bobl 16:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Range break test on GBP/JPY...
offered another entry; missed first by 5 pips on first drop; be nice to pick it up on this time.

Balzano PA 16:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 16:35 GMT // I agree friend. We need people to believe that the US C/A deficit is going to shrink out of thin air (lol) and buy the USD, in the hope that they shall sell at the top. Yes indeed we need this type of people, because that's how we (the USD bears) are going to keep on making money selling the US dollar. Long term demand will easily soak up the offers. GL mate.

cannes fr 16:42 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
tks austin for your support

Eilat Dolphin 16:42 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
fr/ Strange, you "mother in low" and my "brother without arms" have the same philosophical worries.

Is the Boheme II in the harbour these days ?

gold coast martin 16:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw..taking another gbp short at 1923o to leverage first cable short...stops at 19258.....t/p...19161.....

austin edgy 16:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cannes fr- I think your theory may be sound- when news trickles down to everyday person, those not in the business of money or markets, makes me think we have reached the peak ( in this case).

dc fxq 16:35 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Balzano PA 16:33 GM

thats what makes a market - buyers and sellers.

GL>

cannes fr 16:34 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
to confirm my theory:
this mornig i was asked by my mother in low, for the first time in my live, if is not the case to sell us$ and buy euro. very bad sign

Balzano PA 16:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Sell the USD and keep on selling into 2005, because the USD has a lot of downside left in it. USD/JPY sell into strength and don't worry about the BOJ, the last time they were active was back in April and ever since that it's been verbal intervention. The minimum target for 2005 is 95.00. GL all Happy New Year.

dc fxq 16:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cannes fr 16:21 GMT

You are absolutely correct. Few analysts, MM's or traders interviewd of late have anything positive to say about USD or negative about EUR.

They will not all be right in the long or even medium term.

austin edgy 16:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cannes fr- sage advice

Philadelphia Caba 16:22 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Longed usdjpy too, but put s/l at 102.65

sofia 100ikata 16:22 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
everyone

cannes fr 16:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
my suggestion for 2005 (ancient rule)
wen everybody like somthing (euro) sell it
when everybdy dislike somthing (us$) buy it

you will never be wrong

austin edgy 16:19 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone selling euros?

jkt-aye 16:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
i'm in too

dc fxq 16:12 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
10331 first lresistance, then 10350 next on that trade

NJ RT 16:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Me too, me too ... Let's have a party ... I've been following Martin since forever ...seems to be ... God Bless

gold coast martin 16:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 16:07 GMT December 30, 2004
may the gods of forex smile upon us.....g/l

dc fxq 16:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 16:02

you have company on that play martin, I'm in and hvae a similar stop.

gold coast martin 16:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW..LONG YEN AGAIN....10301...T/P 10378...STOP..10272...G/T

San Diego bobl 16:00 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY on 198.3600 sell...
1st target...197.7800 ; s/l is 199.2200
have buy on 1/3 of position @ first target;
if elected, will post second target level

NJ RT 15:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
no problem ... thank you

gold coast martin 15:50 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   


NJ RT 15:47 GMT December 30, 2004
Sorry rt...tired......t/p 19161.....(reviewable of course}....g/t

NJ RT 15:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
didn't mean s/l

gold coast martin 15:46 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   


NJ RT 15:44 GMT December 30, 2004
19258...again....g/t

NJ RT 15:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:22 GMT December 30, 2004 ..... man ... you're a GD genius ..... where is your t/p @ gbpusd

Gothenburg XON 15:40 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, looks like EUR/USD is ending the year with a dimond !

Happy new year to you all !

Paris insider 15:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
euro heading to 1.3486

GENEVA FHR 15:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL OF YOU.
BEST WISHES FOR 2005.
HOPE FOR PROFITABLE TRADES.

dc fxq 15:36 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
From IFR:

15:11 EUR/USD: EUR Bulls Cheered By Drop In Employment Index
15:07 AUD/USD: Hits Session Highs After Data, Option Expirations
15:01 US ECON: Chicago PMI falls to 61.2 vs. 65.2 in Nov
15:03 USD/JPY: Chicago Data Weak But Better Than Whisper Number
15:01 EUR/USD: Chicago PMI Better Than Feared, Worse Than Forecasted


I suppose EURO bulls might be cheered by just about anything these days. :)

london ross 15:30 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Viies BRAVO !




Where we are ?

I`m waiting for 1.31..u can bay mor now:)

San Diego bobl 15:30 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Sold GBP/JPY 198.3600

prague viktor 15:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies ...G/T mate..when the 1,4++will print Happay new year

gold coast martin 15:22 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
YEN...entry 10319....t/p 10378....stop at 10296......fwiw...g/t

Israel Alex 15:19 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Viies BRAVO !

Paldies !

What you think about -100 and +400 pips and -400 +100?

Where we are ?

I`m waiting for 1.4 to sell my EUR.

gold coast martin 15:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....looks like euro is in a daily holding pattern of 13620-25 and holding....should this be true cable shorts and euro shorts should work well until end of NY session....pmi data has not given euro enough steam to breach daily holding pattern....in fact a yen long at 10318-20 level looks good as well....g/t

Tallinn viies 15:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
1,3650 under havey fire soon.
24 hours to go and 1,3750 still my target for this year

San Diego DC 15:15 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez

I thought you were only a position trader, for heaven sakes don;t short Eur/$, long it on dips and you will be richly rewarded IMHO.

San Diego bobl 15:13 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Watching GBP/JPY here for hourly close <198.5000. Not convinced this recent news movements anything more than noise accross the board. Still flat.

gold coast martin 15:12 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   


NJ RT 15:10 GMT December 30, 2004
19258 again.....

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:12 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

sheesh..the alarm went off on this one! This is one of the first days in a long time when funnymentals actually worked. I'm shorting euro/usd at this point..uh...this has got to be one very thin market. Must ber something like 50 traders in FX today..lol.

Vilnius Val 15:12 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies, it looks market confirming your words !

london 15:11 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
New Eur Highs later today maybe? TIA

NJ RT 15:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 15:07 GMT December 30, 2004 where is your s/l @ cable?

gold coast martin 15:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
shorting CABLE AT 19224...REPEATING TODAYS DOSE....chicago pmi provided the momentum..g/t

Vilnius Val 15:05 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies, I saw your posts, they was excellent in results, congratulations ! Wish you all the best in new year, and lets Euro growth as I'm out of the market now :)

gold coast martin 15:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW...adjusted stops to 13638 on euro short....g/t

GENEVA FHR 15:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Employment Index 49.1 vs 60.8

Eilat Dolphin 14:59 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
61.2

Tallinn viies 14:59 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius Val 14:48 - I have exactly opposite view.
short term strong buy.
long term I would rather be a euro seller if 1,4 touched.

Dallas GEP 14:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Take care guys. Out for a while.

Eilat Dolphin 14:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I dunno Viies... feels kind of expansive to spend the night with a Euroie tonight, lest the Sylvester night.
I admit that the next few hours should be good company...

Vilnius Val 14:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 14:43 GMT December 30, 2004
Dallas GEP 14:28 GMT - dont sell euros...
buy them

For long term - YES, but for short term (or pipsing :)) till end on CY2004 it looks better to Sell. And buy somewhere in 1,3500 area.

Tallinn viies 14:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:28 GMT - dont sell euros...
buy them

Atlanta-South 14:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez & Martin/// Valdez ref 12:44gmt Martin was the man on gbp call. I must admit, I too rode the back seat on that one. That is something I will seldom do, unless I am sure of the advice givers ability. In this case you & Martin are both very learned TRADERS & your advice I read & respect. VALDEZ your #1 rule is one I adhere to. Kept me positive more times than not. After trading 3+ years I am still learning & you guys along with everyone else on this forum provide a new TRADER with a world of trading knowledge. Again, THANKS to the BOTH of YOU. Sorry for LONG post. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE.

Dallas GEP 14:28 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Actually this would be the first selling spot for potential shorts on the EURO @ 1.3598-1.3600. Could of course long past this and next level then would be 1.3630

austin edgy 14:19 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
riding the eur/usd range. looking for big short at .3630 down to ?

Tallinn viies 14:13 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
euro just touched hourly trendline and bounced away.
there is chance that diamond is forming on hourly but stochastic crossed higher from oversold levels and this should boost it up again
imho

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Although the intraday indicators are still unwinding from O/B levels for the eur/usd pair 3520-40 should be a good support there are many stops probably under this spot IMHO.

Dallas GEP 14:00 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Euro buying pretty relentless even in the face of good US data. The BUY on all DIPS mentality still in play. 3555 area on EURO still looks to hold for the short term IMO

San Diego bobl 13:55 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
My morning scans/system run does not have me taking any new positions thus far. However, the euro/usd is clearly range trading the 1.3550-1.3650 band. I will be working these level breaks in direction of trade. The most interesting chart with a coiling spring is the GBP/JPY with 7 days of range trade 198.5000-200.0000. I am looking to take that break when it occurs. After entry, my strategy after original position is stop and reverse on other side of range if it's a "fake-out breakout". I double up on the flip side. Bottom line for me is that it's a waiting game today so far.

Gothenburg XON 13:46 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
My view has changed, Im in for EUR/USD targeting 1,3350...

cannes fr 13:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
i cannot understand why peoples is gettin sa made about euro.euro is=nothing and united europe = less than nothin .
50% or a bit less of the european population is agaist euro and united europ. northern italy is agaist the south, spain is divided between madrid, barcellona and the basque, belgium is also wery deeply diveded, greece and turkey do not like each either, germany would like to win the third world war and france as allways is against usa. one day the situation will explode and every country will return to the original souvereign and original currency. europe or euro is just a dreem of chirac-schroeder and (joghybear) prodi. smart peaples (like UK) keep theyr finger out.




quito_ecuador_valdez 13:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gep..me 2..darnit..flubbed 1/3 of that E/$ downspike. But I got 2/3. Out of here..enough profit for one all nighter. Flat n happy. See you all in a few hours when I get my brain restored.

Boca Raton 13:37 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Imagine if it was real money you were playing with!

Dallas GEP 13:34 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
CLOSED too early (eur/jpy)

dc fxq 13:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Next up Chi PMI at 1000 ET/1500 GNT:

Dec 30 10:00 Chicago PMI Dec 63.0e 65.2p

Dallas GEP 13:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
YES Valdez, I agree, Japan won't be shy about intervention when time comes. I am thinking tho not before 102.50 area as a wild asssssed guess

gold coast martin 13:30 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

- US- Weekly Jobless Claims:326000.....positive....

Dallas GEP 13:26 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Closed eur/jpy shorts

gold coast martin 13:24 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 13:14 GMT December 30, 200
I am short euro at 13622...re-adjusted stop to 13622 from 13658.....if i was shortin at 3605 my stop would be at 13622 with a target of 13547-52...day trade only.....
beware that data is coming out in 7 minutes....g/t

perrie como 13:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
The Year in Pictures
A look back at the large and small events of 2004, as captured by Times photographers.
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/photo/20041227_YIP_FEATURE/blocker.html?th

perrie como 13:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd morning scenario ive printed was short 1.362 +/-
Stops 1.3640/70 ..this last one is more considering those, not very usual but risky pre-emptive counter moves before the trend starts.

Target as I said is hundreds of pips lower say between 1.34 adn 1.35, but given the tiny markets might be even touch the range 1.33++

But also soon...am forecasting some shapr moves in 1-2 hours...

g/l

NJ RT 13:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry .... meant 3605

gold coast martin 13:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 11:05 GMT November 10, 2004
TG...HOPE THIS HELPS..AS MUCH I WOULD LIKE THE BIG GUN TO FIRE AROUND 10520 LEVEL...Exporters have finished fixing forward contracts mostly above 105 for this FY. GDP growth around 2% and favorable companies" business results do not justify intervention. FB issuance margin of about Y50tln will be filled quickly if mega interventions resume, and increase of Yen denominated debt will not be welcomed by the nation. Intervened funds will concentrate in banks used for intervention, and BOJ has to adjust such biased funds flow for proper monetary policy. BOJ's further quantitative easing will not be consistent with the view economy is recovering. Only smoothing action is possible. .

Reason why i dug out this post out of the gvi archives is i think it is relevant at to why the BOJ has not intervened in a major way and will not i think in a way we are used to seeing ...as stated above "smoothing "action may only be observed for now unless yen hits 99....g/t

NJ RT 13:14 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin: I did short eurusd @3805 .... If you don't mind where is your s/l on this possie? Thank you

perrie como 13:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq ....am not viis...a
m not so enthusiastic anymore from years now :)) maybe growing smart and sad, maybe better be lucky and enough...maybe Bush at the end was right God bless Forex.


london...berlusconi has no impact on forex markets, call It just a personal opinion ...or his companies are long dollars from 1.32?

not our problem...

The main thing would like to underline is that The Market Speaks for Itself, while the others even if big guys are to consider just speculators

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
DC fxq//Everyone says Japan won't intervene but if they can buffer the dollar fall to help save their own economy, I feel they'll do it..prob is they talk about it too much..then I'd bet my shorts they'll stop saber rattling and start shooting..something tells me if they are about to do that if the USD doesn't start up, it will be soon that they act..before there's a larger percieved problem. Personally anyone long on USD had best get out..for now..even in the face of predicted 1.40..that's for much later...if the powers to be want it...and we don't know that...it isn't worth the risk to "see" 1.3650 either as someone posted earlier this morning. And you know this or should, since we're at a peak, it's time for USD to short 300-500 pips..crystal ball be hanged..it's time to roll.

dc fxq 12:59 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
sorry that was to perrie not viies

dc fxq 12:58 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
viies - you are correct. There is so much blather on the news services from junior (who are only talking to juniors).

I actually posted that article as "bait" to counter some posts made yesterday afternoon which stated BoJ (sic) intervened this week.

My evil mind at work, mostly out of boredom with this faux truce/range trade we have in very slow markets.

Ldn 12:58 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Berlusconi says EUR strength "Absolutely Worrying" - Rtrs

perrie como 12:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
You know what folks...

I will wish you a happy new year
by forecasting for today a late market fall of the euro against the dollar by some 150/200 points somewhere 1.33

bi bi
kill the sharks move

NJ RT 12:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like 1.3620-25 gives a pretty good resistance ... I will short it again if gets there

perrie como 12:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq...I suggest that bloomerg junior journalist to work a little bit more...since the particularity of Japanese interventions is made by different institutions.

This is Boj Mof and Jatra...Mof been buying Us bonds and Boj has bought equities and bonds too in US recently.

However strange is from august this year that they deleted public informations about the equities held abroad.

More complex and also Tanigaki to resign in couple of months too.

g/l

Dallas GEP 12:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
been dosing a little myself!!! LOL well eur/jpy has been pulsating from about 141,27/28 to 141.16

NJ RT 12:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:44 GMT December 30, 2004
Hehe ...true... I was there with you my friend ... we got the right ride.

gold coast martin 12:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
QUITO...market always drives all of us...just have to say stop when we can.....g/t

dc fxq 12:46 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
"Tanigaki Watching

Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki on Dec. 28 said Japan ``will closely watch the exchange rate'' during the holidays. Bond and stock markets in Tokyo closed for the year after morning trading today, and Japan has holidays tomorrow and Jan. 3.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose for a second year, gaining 7.6 percent, raising speculation overseas investors will add to their holdings of Japanese shares. Investors based outside Japan have been net buyers of stocks in all but nine weeks this year.

A weaker local currency inflates the value of exporters' dollar-denominated sales. Japan sells more of its exports to the U.S., the world's largest economy, than any other country. Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd., the maker of Subaru-brand vehicles, last month said it had a 43 percent decline in second-quarter net income in part from the yen's rise against the dollar.

The Bank of Japan, at the behest of the Ministry of Finance, sold 14.8 trillion yen ($142.6 billion) from January to March and hasn't sold since, according to Ministry of Finance figures released today. "

Bloomberg

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, ya gotta sleep amigo..tks tho..but I have to hand the gbp move to good ole marty 100%..was riding in his back seat while he drove the car.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:42 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FRANKFURT (AFX) - German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said the strong fluctuations in oil prices are a cause for concern for the German economy. "...the strongly fluctuating price of oil...a cause for concern," he said.

The Euro is just plain week, not soley because of Germany, they're tough enough when they have to be, albeit excuse givers, they can handle things..it's the whole mess of trying to get all those countries with all those self interests and different ways of thinking to chase the same rabbit. That is the Euro's uncurable illness. It will show up for all the Euro horders to ponder when their cache of asset reduces considerably including all those who are gulping up Euros now in an insatiable hunger.

gold coast martin 12:42 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
NJ RT 12:38 GMT December 30, 2004
..You did well RT...in view of the thin liquidity.....small profits are sweet and you will not go broke out of making a profit....g/t

NJ RT 12:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Fell asleep with my head on the desk ... :) Got out of my possies @ 1.9190 & @1.3602 ... could of done better but the night was too long. Anyway, I was + in both of my possies and I am happy. Thank you Martin and Vladez ... I watched you closely (till I fell :)). g/t

perrie como 12:35 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Think the previously morning view might be correct...there might be a smaller upturn for tight stops upper test again on Eur/Usd...

The move might then become extremely fast after some 2 or 3 hours. Might be only extremely explosive dollar correction move, but correction only It seems yet for months to come.

Tallinn viies 12:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
good day all,
less than 48 hours till year is over.
still no reason to liquidate euro longs as buyers are still out there and they want our euros....
better to wait and see up to which level they ready to bid it up.
for the bigger picture bulls want to see 1,44-1,45 in the first quarter of 2005. from there 1,29 seen again.
good luck and dont give your euros them yet :)

London GLB 12:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
porto pjt - tku! i agree with the rsi topping which is a v strong indicator used in conjunction with the macd, also agree that r/r is to downside, probably because it is counter-trend ( as you point out ) that it is an uncomfortable trade, out of interest .. how did you calculate the 138.70 target?
tks

Dallas GEP 12:15 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
glb eur/jpy good short from 141,27

Porto PJT 12:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
London GLB 11:49, RSI divergence on daily + channel top ~141,60 tell me is a short until a close above 141,60/80, possible target 138,70 till 137~ is a possibility.good r/r but against the trend.

London GLB 11:49 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
any views on eur/jpy?, feels quite heavy up here, got a double top on the hourly charts- daily chart posting new highs, which confuses me, head says stay long , but heart not in it...

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
know whacha mean maty..pulled an allnighter raiding..whew. But it paid off.

gold coast martin 11:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW...out of both cable positions @19182.......too tired to maintain constant risk managememt practice on a daily possie....only have euro short from this morning....g/t

Dallas GEP 11:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad longs from 1,2100 are decent

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:01 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
your author is entirelly correct. That is changing rapidly however. Look at Nazi Germany 1 year after the end of WWII..what a turn around compared to what it was in the war years. Things change..they are not always the same. Right? As I said, Latin Am is fed up with being behind when our resources are so great and profuse. Japanese techlonogists are working now with Ec agriculture and civic projects..they see the light..they saw it in China..teams of German and Japanese technology outfits are roaming around here and other Latin countries. What do they know? Think about it..timei is on our side amigo.

Closed shorts for gain, reentered better 1.36075

Dallas GEP 10:58 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
hmmmm... out on GBP shorts now @ 1.9200

Dallas GEP 10:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
trailiong stop on short gbp now to protect +20 pips at 1.9200

dc fxq 10:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
this one is for SYD (yesterday afternoon):


10:07 USD/JPY: Japan Did Not Intervene In The Forex Market - MOF

IFR & 4CAST

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
shorted E/$ 1.36160 tgt 1.3560..near Dr. Q's suggestion below. Another "old" short 1.36028

perrie como 10:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I stick to his view.

Regards
Perrie

Latin American has never experienced individual freedom. Alvaro Vargas Llosa, in his new book "Liberty for Latin America: How to Undo 500 Years of State Oppression" (Farrar, Straus & Giroux), blames the Latin tragedy on government coercion, mercantilism, special privileges, redistribution of wealth and politicized laws. What is urgently required south of the border is individual freedom, respect for private property, rule of law, and limited governments.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/122904I.html

Dallas GEP 10:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
shorted gbp/usd at market

perrie como 10:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito
I wish you all the best

but am not changing my macro opinion based only on personal consumption.

g/l

Hong Kong Qindex 10:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.3553 is likely to be challenged later today.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:35 GMT December 28, 2004
EUR/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle (27/12)


... 1.3053* - 1.3178 - // 1.3303 - 1.3428 - {1.3553} - 1.3678 - 1.3803 // 1.3928 - 1.4053* ...

HK [email protected] 10:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Cando tries the property of the H&S on 5Min.chart

Sydney 10:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD .7750 +1,041 pts
Getting the preferred downside break. It looks like it will continue lower with this a bounce to be sold. The only problem is again that the USD could outpace the AUD to the downside. So trickier than usual, but favour the downside while very immediate resistance at .7780 contains. Market remains offere while .7780 holds, and aggressively so below .7760. The fundamental outlook remains decidedly bearish.

Today .7680 .7850 wide, .7750 .7820
narrow. Aggressive .7775 .7805.
Still bid while .7775 holds.

fxmax

Helsinki iw 10:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 10:09 GMT December 30, 2004
HK [email protected] 10:06 GMT December 30, 2004
Gold IS given out to department stores essentially...you can buy gold bars, bullion coins galore in any free state worldwide.

quito, according to San Fran tg, that would amount to the USA and Iraq ?

Just kidding.

HK [email protected] 10:14 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Indeed gold is given outin stores , on top of the bullion bank holding the rest so that price will not come down.

And by the way... JAKARTA, Dec. 30 (Xinhuanet) -- An earthquake measuring 4.8 on the Richter scale shook Indonesia's easternmost province of Papua Thursday, but no report of damages and casualties.

"The low-scale tremor lasted for about three seconds," meteorology and geophysics agency official Dr Fauzi was quoted by the official Antara news agency as saying.

The quake occurred at 11:00 a.m. local time (02:00 GMT) but the location of its epicenter could not be detected, he said.


..............Mamamia the Aussie plate is moving!!!!!!!!!!!

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 10:06 GMT December 30, 2004
Gold IS given out to department stores essentially...you can buy gold bars, bullion coins galore in any free state worldwide.

HK [email protected] 10:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

gold coast martin 09:54 GMT December 30, 2004

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:53 GMT December 30, 2004

About the Euro it is nice to keep things Tech. as I try to do most, just not to ask myself why the market acts irrationally.

About gold, I think it should be given for public sale to some department stores as any useless commodity(like diamonds), to see what market price will come out, as all end of the season products.

quito_ecuador_valdez 10:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Perrie, you're right on some points..bad admin is one of them. Ecuador however has oil as does Nicaraugua..that's good when it's over $40 clams a barrel...oil leases have given us new roads in the last year and infrastructure and government loans to private businesses like no tomorrow. Banking is doing very well with the flow of cash coming in to feed the need for loans...everyone owns a new car it seems now where as 8 years ago the streets..you could throw a bowling ball down some of them and never hit a car. True. Construction here is booming, each block is dotted with new projects and homes...office buildings, huge shopping malls going up in all major cities..things are changing here Perrie..big time. How does this affect FX? Well, South Am is going to shortly be a powerful consuming force and import duties are going to be lessened soon...more sales taxes to take up the slack for less import duty but cash flow enhancement like crazy. The US is poised to export..we're poised to import. Get it?

perrie como 09:56 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito tks for your info..I now about those flows, but compared to the overindebetd national ratios and interests in US$ mostly, those debts grown from the whole series of bad politicians and too old bureucrathic and costly administations. Those some tens of billions are being constantly eated. Also know you have growing problems in agriculture and food supplies.

However what I saw from south america people living abroad is just they send partial money to relatives an some to buy real eastate at unbelivably cheap prices. The rests stays abroad.

Nice Continent and People Quito, bad historically one of the worst administrations.

gold coast martin 09:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 09:45 GMT December 30, 2004
Agree with your gold post.....in addition as well as gold been a commodity it has also assumed the role of pseudo-currency...and as such it will be dictated by the same forex principles as other major currencies......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 09:45 GMT December 30, 2004// Thanks for responding. Au is like any commod supply & demand moved. With the incredible gold mining that will be going forth in 2005-6 the supply will be enormous..driving the price down so PEOPLE CAN AFFORD gold products once again..it cycles, we know that. I look into 2006 for the effect to start, just about the time the USD gains lots of strength. Well, the ground work, excuse the pun, is starting now.

Dallas GEP 09:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
7094 very good short on EUR/gbp

gold coast martin 09:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
ICT OMIL.....Great post of interest on the help forum.....even up to today have employed the "blitzing" principle ...i called it "blitzkrieg" instead.....have applied today to cable using daily trading parameters.....working so far.......will end it tomorrow......g/t and happy new year........

Phuket Waverider 09:50 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 09:39 GMT December 30, 2004

Interesting, thanks.

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Perrie, in total respect for your contributions South America is poised to flower. I live here and observe constantly the real ground level economy. In our province alone comes over 5M USD a day from workers who work in the USA and Europe..they send the money BACK..almost all their earnings. That is just one province. Mexico, Central America and the rest of South America are getting cash like a river full of it flowing into the coffers. It is almost all going to the banks..savings is enormous..Latins are frugal like the Japanese and Chinese. So what the rah dee dah economists are saying is out of textbook and office memos..not anything to do with here. Believe me.

HK [email protected] 09:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 09:39 GMT December 30, 2004

About gold.
Just remember that gold is a commodity too.
People just do not have that enough money to buy gold product at the current price, unless discounted like all other items.

Rockford BDR 09:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Great article valdez. Where do you find this stuff>?

perrie como 09:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito....with all due respect, next year could bring the true financial burden to all of South America. As the FED hikes money to pey just interests and not debt is missing more and more. Economy is not going anywhere, well some interesting changes in politics yes, but too late now.

Argentina was just the aperitive of what has to show up next years.

g/l anyway and take care

Hong Kong Qindex 09:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Since Au is connected to FX, the high price of Au is spurring many gold prospect companies (big ones from Canana, Norway, USA, Africa, Russia) to start prospecting and drill sampling many places in South America..Ecuador being one. 2005 will see gold mining as a boom worldwide, and it's USD positive.

You wouldn't believe the action here...and this is just one small country..think of the millions of ounces which will soon be taken from the world's newly discovered gold fields. With a flood like this Au is certain to make weak countries stronger with the mining business and spin off businesses.

I see this as very USD positive in that as supplies override demand, Au will go down as the USD demand therefore goes up..controversial approach but mine anyway...great for Ecuador, Argentina & Panama who need to bolster their gold reserves with expensive dollars and cheaper gold. As 2005 goes into Q3 you will see the start of a gold rush and prosperity in dollar using countries.

As to why the Euro is horded so much and the USD has seen its sell-of this year is actually beyond me other than artificial manipulation..not intervention. The EZ will eventually either have to deal with the real world outside Frankfurt or get into serious trouble.

perrie como 09:30 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Regarding markets, there might be a move leter on to show where the sharks have been last days squeezing up and down.
But in such a dull market might also be better to think to start to kill this ugly 2004.

Hope nothing for 2005, since there's nothing to hope for in such a crazy world

enjoy and relax..

btw eur/usd might be a good sellpoint here for huge pippos southern....but difficult to be confident in so tiny markets

perrie como 09:26 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Funny now all releasing quake/tsunamis warnings ...where they have been a week ago?

Also all that goodwill printed makes just pharma more happy so they can send stockpiles of out of date medicinals down there sparing sizeble amounts needed to destroy em

Also just after happened, a series of organizations, coming on TV asking you money. While we know, to be optimistic, just a 10 pct is getting to the poor people while the rest is being eated towards the road to homeless

gold coast martin 09:26 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW..for those lucky enough to grab cable at 19240 level will be well rewarded in the later part of the trading session....g/t

HK [email protected] 09:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
With the instability and the shock in Asia seems the Cad is moving soon below 1.2050.

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:19 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
ross//sorry..don't understand trine...not to offend..repost pls.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:54 GMT December 30, 2004
Spot Gold : Basically the market is trading between key quantized levels, namely 429 and 446.5. The mid-point reference of 429 - 446.5 is 437.75.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:50 GMT December 30, 2004
Hong Kong Qindex 13:05 GMT December 11, 2004
Spot Gold : The market is negative if it is trading below 429. The mid-point reference of 429 - 446.5 is 437.8. The next target is 407.9 if the market can penetrate through 429. The mid-point reference of 407.9 and 429 is 418.5.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:03 GMT December 11, 2004
Spot Gold : Quantized Levels of 3-Month Projection


A) : ... 407.3* // 417.1 - 426.9 - 436.7 - {446.5}* - 456.3 // 466.1 ...


B) : ... // 422.0* - 428.2 - 434.3 - 440.4 - {446.5} - 452.7 - 458.8 // 464.9 - 471.0* ...


C) : ... 397.5* - 405.7 // 413.9 - 422.1 - 430.2 - 438.4 - {446.5} - 454.7 // 462.9* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 12:59 GMT December 11, 2004
Spot Gold : Quantized levels of Quarterly Cycle


A) : ... 390.2* - 399.9 // 409.6 - 419.3 - {429.0}* - 438.7 - 448.4 - 458.1 // .467.8* ...


B) : ... // 404.8* - 410.9 - 417 - 423 - {429.0} - 435.1 - 441.2 - 447.3 - 453.3* // ...


C) : ... // 412.9* - 421 - {429.0} - 437.2 - 445.2 - 453.3 // 461.4 ...


The market is heading towards 429.

Syd 09:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] hopefully the analyst are correct in saying that now the shift has happened it has released much of the pressure built up over time, therefore we shouldnt be getting another as great for some time to come in that particular hot spot

london ross 09:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez ----- trine is ready

HK [email protected] 09:15 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd 09:10 GMT December 30, 2004

For general knowledge.

Hope we are not into Armageddon.

The India plate begins its descent into the mantle at the Sunda trench, which lies to the west of the earthquake's epicenter. The trench is the surface expression of the plate interface between the Australia and India plates.

quito_ecuador_valdez 09:11 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Ah, the Andes night air is refreshing..nice stroll. For those still interested in FX, I could not agree more with this article written by Mr. John Blundell, Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs of Scotland. Frankly, the next 6 months will be the Euro's make it or break it period. The author starts out soft but gets down and dirty as the article reads on.

Syd 09:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] yes I did notice that

Hong Kong Qindex 09:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at  [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

EDINBURGH RP 09:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Gentlemen, this is supposed to be a FX forum for posting views on the same. Your points are all relevant and important, but have no place in this forum. Please refrain from further such content - you will never agree anyway; so agree to disagree and get on with your trading, leaving us others to do the same without your unecessary diatribe.....

HK [email protected] 08:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd 08:44 GMT December 30, 2004

That should worry you more...The reason for the evacuation notice was not clear. Sources said the ministry received information from foreign governments regarding tectonic plate shifting near Australia.

Tectonic plates get loose under our feet.

Ldn 08:50 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Early data on Asian quake went unnoticed in Vienna

Eilat Dolphin 08:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
ac/ Yea, heavy cross; concentrate on the fx cross harder.;^)

Syd 08:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
New Tsunami warning in India

Helsinki iw 08:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
According to reports on the wires there has been an aftershock off 5 Richters in magnitude and a warning of new waves has been issued.

lax-lgb SNP 08:40 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
cancel that ... it seems to be aftershocks and the authorities are pretending to be aware for a change

Syd 08:40 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> true

lax-lgb SNP 08:36 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
am hearing rumors of another tsunami developing in the indian ocean ... heading the same route

Eilat Dolphin 08:29 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Happy times, OMIL!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
No need to treat each other like this death is death and when it comes for us it does not have a face only a purpose. We cannot even imagine the suffering until it comes for us in what ever disguise it chooses. Live and let live (or let die) let’s try to keep it civilized and focus on what good we have (or could have) and not the bad IMHO. Happy Holidays to everyone

HK [email protected] 08:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

Phuket... hope you are from Thailand Indonesia Sri Lanka or the Philippines!!!

Do not be angry of what I tell you.
In majority of cases people were killed NOTt because of Tsunami ,but because they are poor.

Corrupt regimes in Asia in which few people concentrate ,most of the lands in their hands, leave no choice for the poor , but to live near rivers waterways, landslide prone areas and near the seas .
I say Booo,BOOOOO... to these corrupt goverments and YOU A.HOLES transfer the your poor to higher grounds!!!

London. 08:24 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
.UK. annual house price inflation slipped further in December, with the annual rate now at the lowest level since January 2002, a survey published Thursday by the Nationwide Building Society

prague viktor 08:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez..amigo our friends still looking to 1,425-1,45 in few weeks to come...if they right I dont know but as u know till now they were right..now Im using Mr OILMAN system Hit and run (happay new year oil man whereever u are)..G/T

Syd 08:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez hi, expecting some upside in the USD within the month (Jan) possible 10% correction or there abouts in first part of 05

Haifa ac 08:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
GBP//an interesting battle with the 19098 (Last month close). They will battle around this bone of contention all day long. My guess they will close a trifle above it so as to NOT create a monthly reversal. If they give up--then BP is a sell! (for many months to come!)

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez signs off..am short E/$ various levels of last dipseydoodle...tgt=1.3575..conservative but it works..s/l=1.3665..way up there. GT. have fun insulting each other.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
The Schroeder comments from a German Newspaper and the WSJ overnight have the usual feel about them. He claimed overnight that the German economy was showing signs of steadying but that the current high level of the EUR was
"holding the country back". [EUR/USD] is still holding sub 1.3650 but intraday we could now see the pair move higher once the slated half-a-yard of 1.3650 strikes, roll off after the NY cut (15:00 GMT). (IFR)

HK [email protected] 08:12 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:00 GMT December 30, 2004

Now my advice for you that you are so scientific.

1) Do not go to swin in any seas at full moon and when the earth is near it's Perihelion.(as happened on Dec 26 2004)

2) Beware of illicit sex, as after the disaster Aids will spread faster

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Can we please limit this to trade posts before FF becomes FPF..Forex political forum & amusement park? Thanks fellas...

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:08 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
More Like Bugwaan is freezen...UAE is 95% Indians

quito_ecuador_valdez 08:07 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Syd// to me that indicates more interst in USD..what think?

Phuket Waverider 08:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Haifa AC: One involves VOLUNTARY RISKY BEHAVIOR.

Do you actually beleive this is the only way HIV is spread? Nonsense. Thankfully, not everyone is as stupid as you.

Syd 08:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Indicators are negative for Aud calling for further downside.
below 7762 targets 7704 and 7675.

Bahrain Within 10 Pips 08:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
0.9615 0.9391 Buy AUDCAD

Hong Kong Qindex 08:01 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with Jay at [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 08:01 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
SNOW has fallen over the United Arab Emirates for the first time ever, leaving a white blanket over the mountains of Ras al-Khaimah

Haifa ac 08:00 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town 07:54 GMT //No comparison. One is Spread over 30 years. One happened OVER NIGHT!

One involves VOLUNTARY RISKY BEHAVIOR. The other is totally innocent.
Both involve liquid transfromation--but the Water is the biggest killer of all times. Shore people are going to pay dearly next 30 years as World warms up. It involves MAJOR strategic changes to deal with all Shore dwellers in the world (Blue States BEWARE!)

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:59 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
This looks like a stop wash to me on usd...just ride it out...place your bets.

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi Victor amigo!! Have been working cable and E/$..short city.

gold coast martin 07:55 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw....a bit more grinding ,a bit more back lashing..and cable will grind lower with euro following.....pattern of the day.....g/t

Cape Town 07:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
ac, I think that the AIDS catastrophe is a lot worse.

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
that was it..E/$ was driven by cable.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Aud/usd has good support around the 7680-7700 area with the T/L (7620-30) defined for now. This pair has the intraday indicators also unwinding and trying to find support as well. Eur/usd has respected it’s T/L (3580-90) boundaries too for the time being here are the new numbers for that pair. Happy Holidays

Resistance for eur/usd pair stands now at 3650-70, 3700-10, 3750-60 and 3800-10. Key target 3560-70 and main target is in the 3750-60 area.
Retracement numbers from bullish channel are 3600-10, 3580-90, 3560-70, 3540-50 and 3515-25.
Immediate retracement numbers are 3565-75, 3525-35, 3485-95, 3445-55 and 3405-15.
Retracement numbers are 3520-30, 3445-55, 3385-95, 3325-35 and 3250-60.
Second wave retracement numbers are 3475-85, 3370-80, 3290-3300, 3205-15, and 3100-10 for now key retracement number is 3445-55.
Support T/L 3580-90, 3400-10 and 3370-80.
Support is around the 3580-3600, 3520-40, 3480-90, 3440-50, 3380-3400, 3340-50, 3310-20, 3250-3280, 3210-30, 3170-80, and 3130-40 for now key support is around the 3380-3400 area IMHO. GL GT

Haifa ac 07:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Fundamentals. Jesse Livermore said nothing can stop a trend, not even a World war. Here we have over 100K dead and 5 Mil homeless--the WORST DISASTER in MOdern History and the markets don't budge!
Goes to show you --the market is NOT a human thingy!

Ldn 07:42 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Sterling suffering as economic indicators suggest Uk rates hikes are over and even lower rates can be expected,also the UK is experiencing widening trade deficits (like the US) and we expect eur/gbp to move towards.7150-75 in the coming weeks
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102990/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis

prague viktor 07:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez..Hi I amigo are u daily trader now ....whats up u were a position one mate..nice profits..G/T

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
wth happened..suddenly I'm richer..what a drop on xxx/usd charts! Good ole E/$ came thru again..

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:30 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
la fxt..no ads here..besides there are managers on this forum who offer 20%. You're outclassed.

quito_ecuador_valdez 07:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
hey no prob atlanta.. a man's gotta sleep sometime..there's always more pips to grap later..you made profit, that's all that counts.

Atlanta-South 07:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez--After looking, your right. Should fall more. I guess I'm too tired. As ALWAYS thanks for the help.

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta, there's nothing wrong with profit..but look!

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:55 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
if you look, see the double peaks on E/$ diminishing in the 2nd peak..same with cable...indicates a fast fall.

Atlanta-South 06:55 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez-- I'm out @ 1.9209 with my pips. Tired, will get rest now. GL GT

mex sjs 06:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito, doing just fine and waiting to collect some pips from last trades for the year.....still have some presents to buy...saludos...

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
altanta..wait off a bit..this is falling fast..I think E/$ is powering it or vice versa..who knoz at this point.

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
words eaten..happy now...I agree with mex sjs..just about any XXX/usd short would work or any usd/XXX long.

Atlanta-South 06:50 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez//I'm short from 1.9221, but looks like time to close.

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:49 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
mex! como le va amigo?!! As my dogs say, fleas navidad.

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:48 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta, I originally entered with martin at the top in 1.9217, rode it down, then it backlashed on me..took profit, re entered a moment ago at 1.9209...now I wish I'd held off just a bit more before re entering.

mex sjs 06:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
longing usdchf here at 1.1325 might be a good trade, especially if you consider only a 40 pip stoploss, and tgt 1.1500+....same thing regarding euro,, 1.3650 all week as a top, also a good trade to short it, SAR at 1.3655 for tgt 100 pips...129 pip range current week, so expect a nice move before yearend, good luck and have a happy new year...

london... 06:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez - buy her mate

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta..yes.

Atlanta-South 06:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez:u entered short cable?

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:36 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
re entered cable at 1.9209..maybe it's done playing

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
closed sterling at 19201..waiting for this to stop shredding itself.

Singapore Sfx 06:22 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

14:02 30Dec2004 RTRS-INDIA ISSUES TSUNAMI ALERT, WARNS PEOPLE TO LEAVE COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
14:09 30Dec2004 RTRS-India's Tamil Nadu state issues tsunami alert

NEW DELHI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The state government in India's Tamil Nadu state, which bore the brunt of the Indian Ocean tsunami, on Thursday issued a tsunami alert and warned people to leave coastal areas.
Police said aftershocks in the Andaman and Nicobar islands, near the centre of the huge earthquake that caused Sunday's tsunami, were "likely" to cause high waves.
Witnesses said police sirens were blaring on beaches in Tamil Nadu and residents were running away.

Ldn 06:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. all mega dollar Bears anyway

quito_ecuador_valdez 06:08 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
mks london 06:00 GMT December 30, 2004
Quite a difference between "happy with" (now) and Bush's "we wanna strong dollar" (3 months ago). I knew GWB was just appeasing the EZ in a stall off til they came to their senses. Afterall there is some benefit for the EZ with a strong Euro, weak USD which perhaps now they are beginning to see. I'd say in 2007 you'll see close to Euro/dollar parity as the 10 year cycle goes on. Laugh if you want.

gold coast martin 06:01 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
fwiw....kiwi has developed same correlation as aud....grinding to 7087 for today......

mks london 06:00 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
U.S. policy makers ``are perfectly happy with the dollar declining,'' said Kenneth Landon at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``They're very happy with the current trend.''

Against the yen, the dollar fell to 103.68 at 2:26 p.m. in Tokyo from 103.86 in New York yesterday, according to electronic currency trading system EBS. The dollar was at $1.3628 per euro, from $1.3608, having yesterday fallen to a record for a fifth day, weakening as low as $1.3647.

The dollar may fall to $1.40 per euro and 93 yen in the first six months of 2005, Landon said.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
those USDs to dump definitely are waiting for the big dip to power E/$ up to 1.40 in my book. I think marty pegged this right..Jan 5-15 is when the action will take place.

gold coast martin 05:51 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 05:46 GMT December 30, 2004
My t/p on cable is 19147 right now(reviewable)....for today and tommorrow ....i am not a subscriber to the 300+ pip club on the cable right now...in view of the time of year that would be a very dangerous position to take..after the 5th of january i will have a medium term opinion on the cable...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:46 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
what is your t/p on cable, marty? I've tentitively got 1.9170...movable of course...do you hail to the 300 pip dip mongers or not?

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:44 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
btw martin, dam good calls...within a few pips on the dollar, right on with sterling. You're somthin'. Wish I'd have put that E/$ short on sterling..sheesh..

gold coast martin 05:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
sttic=static

gold coast martin 05:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
A correlation between yen and aud has developed in the last 1 hour.....aud was sttic waiting for yen to move....yen should grind to 10435 with aussie down to 7703-07...just for today....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
tks martin..will du.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
HKG fei 05:29 GMT December 30, 2004
Actually that would agree with my model which has been so faithful this year. Let's hope my model flies instead of crashes in the dirt. Like you I wouldn't be surprised at all if 1.3650 prints..I'll just move my s/l...

gold coast martin 05:35 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 05:33 GMT December 30, 2004
19168 is ok....if you entered at 19217 may be right now move your stops to your entry....at least you dont lose...g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks..you've more experience with cable than I'll ever have...doing good so far..tgt 1.9168..what think? s/l same as yours..reconsidered..1.9258

E/$ short is hanging fire a bit...hope the euro bulls were finished...tgt 1.35827. s/l 1.3650

HKG fei 05:29 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
sell Sfr now, hope eur 1.3650 should be the top
and start correction from now target 300-500 pips

gold coast martin 05:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito......while the cable has a habit of making villains out of us all in a short timeframe,in the absence of real liquidity it may behave in an orderly manner as it is now....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I haven't placed any s/l yet..just figuring on that. Since the high lately was just 1.364+ and in view of marty's ceiling..I'll place a rather close stop on E/$ maybe 1.3650 because if it breaks that, watch out. On cable I'll put it at 1.3240ish..a bit under marty's. In a wee bit soon as I study things a bit more.

NJ RT 05:23 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Short GBP/USD @1.9217
still keep my short E/$ @ 1.3614
g/l & g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
The only thing is, every mother's son has just done what we did...hoping we don't get as marty said in gvi...a nasty present from the fx gods.

Philadelphia Caba 05:17 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 05:14 GMT December 30, 2004
shorted E/$ 1.3624

May I ask you on your s/l? Thanks.

GER ad 05:16 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
After stalling for 3 days at 1.3645 EUR/USD need to make a move IMHO. Now because already over 1.3625/30 I suspect follow scenario:
First higher 1.3680 (or 1.3720) then lower maybe 1.3580 at close (if will stay all the day under yesterday high we may close lower). Much depends on USD/JPY; will 103.50 or 103.25 hold and we will see again 104.25?
Because this situation I am not willing to sell EUR/USD right now despite the prognosis that will close lower.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:14 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
shorted E/$ 1.3624

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Thus far E/$ shows an almost straight line from 1.3512 to present..still is a longing chart regardless of cable's move to level off.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Redid my E/$ longs t/p's..now have 1.3645, 10 pips higher than this high.

NJ RT 05:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 04:57 GMT December 30, 2004

Thank you GT & GL

gold coast martin 04:57 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   


NJ RT 04:54 GMT December 30, 2004
s/l on cable is 19258...g/t

NJ RT 04:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin: question ...where is your s/l on the cable ? Thank you

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
shorted cable @ 1.9217...E/$ in sights but waiting...the euro bull hasn't quit fighting yet.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:49 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
MARTY I saw 1.927 print on fxtrek charts.

gold coast martin 04:46 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 04:45 GMT December 30, 2004
YES......

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
marty..think you're right..leveling off...did you place a short yet?

gold coast martin 04:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 04:38 GMT December 30, 2004
As gbp has already printed 19225 i have a shot at it already...fwiw...as per my earlier post of today i have traded it both ways so far....

gold coast martin 04:41 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 02:54 GMT December 30, 2004
Eilat Dolphin 02:43 GMT December 30, 2004
Hello my finely-worded friend........dollar wise not much action.....for today dollar up to 13620 max. and down to 1355-65,using yesterdays posted resistance of 13554 as a guide.....i dont expect this res. to be breached today or tomorrow....for the day before 2005, same trading pattern emerging unless 13554 breached...in such a case dollar up from 13620 down to 13478......
NJ.....My possie fot today and tomorrow for euro.....After new years different ball game..g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
marty & DC, say when you'd shoot...OK men?

NJ RT 04:38 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
eurusd didn't retrace from 3620-30. Martin what do u think will happen. I am on a tight s/l here. Thnx

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
One more healthy punch and I wanna short cable.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:29 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tks marty...I want this short bad..willing to wait for it. GT amigo..I owe you a pint.

gold coast martin 04:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin 02:27 GMT December 30, 2004
FWIW....for those trading daily.....look for cable to reach 19225-35 after which it will descend back down to the 19130-35 level...yesterdays posted resistance on cable of 19124(which did hold),still applies for today.....g/t

Quito ...thats my position still on cable......g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
That's it, throw an add in when we're white knuckled about this move..knuckle head.

New York FNS 04:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
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quito_ecuador_valdez 04:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I don't think the extra USD some entities want to dump are showing up here..this is pattern...dumping means dumping to seek 1.37..I think they're waiting..way too high yet to dump..and certainly not on a peak. Cable and swissy are behaving calmer..it's the Euro that's on fire here. Valdez rule # 1..never short a longing chart, never long a shorting chart.

San Diego DC 04:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 04:06 GMT December 30, 2004

I agree with your assessment of long now, and when your crystall ball tells to short it, we will do so at the right TIME :)

shanghai bc 04:08 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   

Basically an attempt to break that euro 1.37 option while the chaps who own it are trying to push the market away from their option..Highly likely to touch it today or tomorrow though before it comes off..

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Yep DC, it's got new wind. At the peak we'll be short city..agreed amigo? Sure would follow the pattern of late.

Surabaya Medallion 04:05 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone play EUR/AUD cross? Lately, the cross 1.74x - 1.76x seems pretty good for me.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:04 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
correction, cable and euro don't look like shorts any more..sheesh, they're going for broke...fine with me for a real decent short when it runs out of frejoles.

San Diego DC 04:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$

EUR is poised to break the 1.3647 barrier to make new highs as we speak.. Should this change, I wil post it here.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:56 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Am dozing..I trade in a custom made recliner which serves as a bed for catnapping...cable looks like it wants to short at this time..what say marty?

Hong Kong Qindex 03:55 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:54 GMT December 30, 2004
Spot Gold : Basically the market is trading between key quantized levels, namely 429 and 446.5. The mid-point reference of 429 - 446.5 is 437.75.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:49 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:05 GMT December 11, 2004
Spot Gold : The market is negative if it is trading below 429. The mid-point reference of 429 - 446.5 is 437.8. The next target is 407.9 if the market can penetrate through 429. The mid-point reference of 407.9 and 429 is 418.5.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:03 GMT December 11, 2004
Spot Gold : Quantized Levels of 3-Month Projection


A) : ... 407.3* // 417.1 - 426.9 - 436.7 - {446.5}* - 456.3 // 466.1 ...


B) : ... // 422.0* - 428.2 - 434.3 - 440.4 - {446.5} - 452.7 - 458.8 // 464.9 - 471.0* ...


C) : ... 397.5* - 405.7 // 413.9 - 422.1 - 430.2 - 438.4 - {446.5} - 454.7 // 462.9* ...

Hong Kong Qindex 12:59 GMT December 11, 2004
Spot Gold : Quantized levels of Quarterly Cycle


A) : ... 390.2* - 399.9 // 409.6 - 419.3 - {429.0}* - 438.7 - 448.4 - 458.1 // .467.8* ...


B) : ... // 404.8* - 410.9 - 417 - 423 - {429.0} - 435.1 - 441.2 - 447.3 - 453.3* // ...


C) : ... // 412.9* - 421 - {429.0} - 437.2 - 445.2 - 453.3 // 461.4 ...


The market is heading towards 429.


quito_ecuador_valdez 03:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I assume the US mkt is open New Year's Eve..is U.S. mkt closed then New Year's Day?

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
gotcha marty..tks

gold coast martin 03:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   


quito_ecuador_valdez 02:58 GMT December 30, 2004
I am only referring to its peak for the next 2 days....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:58 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Marty, E/$ has already touched 1.3615..ya mean it's about peaked there, amigo? Sure doesn't look like it's backing down to me...who gnoz these dayz.

gold coast martin 02:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 02:43 GMT December 30, 2004
Hello my finely-worded friend........dollar wise not much action.....for today dollar up to 13620 max. and down to 1355-65,using yesterdays posted resistance of 13554 as a guide.....i dont expect this res. to be breached today or tomorrow....for the day before 2005, same trading pattern emerging unless 13554 breached...in such a case dollar up from 13620 down to 13478......
Should you want to consider Kiwi for next 2 days only,max.upside 7175 with minimum doownside of 7082....g/t and may you have many more profitable years ahead......

Eilat Dolphin 02:43 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi Martin! What your take on the coming day and the next one, $wise ?

And since you are among the very first ones to touch, kiss 2005 hello, have a lovefulll and pipfull year!!!

gold coast martin 02:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW....for those trading daily.....look for cable to reach 19225-35 after which it will descend back down to the 19130-35 level...yesterdays posted resistance on cable of 19124(which did hold),still applies for today.....g/t

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:15 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
...and tks Analyst for changing your handle..much more swave.

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:14 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Tks Dolfin, marty.

Eilat Dolphin 02:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez/ Hi Amigo Gringo (LTNS)! My guess for the next days is:
Tomorrow is $ up day because this thin market is going to think twice about the Very Big Boys coming back from vacation on monday and erasing their excesses flat.

And Monday-Tuesday, the Banker Boys should let the $ pip a hundred to the F.....nFat Euro.

Thus I see 1.3333 out there.
We'll see...

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:10 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc, thanks 4 the advice. Trolling HERE produces emails to my website address which THEN I engulf; you'd be surprised as to from whom. The hosts of this forum in fact have handles onto sources which aren't to be underestimated. So trolling doesn't always produce FF results..but it produces results. We should get to know each other better. Buenos nachos. (Valdez slides a cold pint down to dc) :^)

Bkk Cad 02:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Happy New Year All! God bless you all!
GB

gold coast martin 02:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 01:52 GMT December 30, 2004
Position squaring and re-positioning by small players in a thin liquidity driven market, produces the volatility that we see on both sides of the ledger...in such a market we cannot read anything into it...any major moves to either side canbe taken seriously after the 5th or 15th of january when market assumes normality....for now trade the ranges that show neither wekness or strength in the dollar...the overall trend of dollar weakness still prevails ....for now, until the silly season is over....re-asess trend and and flows after market resumes normality....g/t and happy new year to all......

SanFrancisco Analyst 02:03 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Ok focusing on the market. I've met people who egotistically claim the market moves merely at the rumor they are in the market in a particular direction. And nothing happens as I stand there as they enter orders, and a co-operative takes a 40 pip loss before my eyes.

Good men on a personal level, the kind I would defend, but who drives the market?

I think to anticipate is to pre-determine, which carries an inherent degree of success and failure. I tend to succeed while not determining expectations but confirming them.

dc fxq 02:02 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito - you must be really bored to troll for that kind of info on this (or any other board) at this time of year.

Kick back and rlax until the real money returns after Jan 2.

Just a well meant suggestion.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:54 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
dx..I'm seriously digging. I do check the mainstream news..what info I need is that which doesn't appear there. I have such but wanted to confirm it. Have a mint.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Oslo..I like your writing style but please don't refer to "us" i.e. me as a minnow. I am a mere protozoan, much in envy of minnows.

dc fxq 01:52 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Let me throw my $.02 worth in here:

I don't know whether you are bored and trolling Quito, but if you are seriously digging for info in this mareket you are wasting yor tiime.

Just check out IFR, MNI or any other serious FX oriented news service and the message repeats itself day after day of late: thin order driven markets.

Thus endeth the sermon.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:47 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Actually I heard the mkt is pretty thin right now..that's one reason for all the chop...I think the funds have already done what the're gonna do..it is entities smaller than medium and large funds which are batting the pingpong ball around. Remember funds now engage something like 35% of FX but banks and CBs still get most of the rest of the 1.2-1.3 trillion dollars a day volume. I'm flat..just curious as to what's happened since I closed out. Glad I did when I did!

oslo oskar 01:45 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
celieve what you will quito, believe what you wil and live your dream

since the night is dark and i have so long to go i am sure your contacts are among the best minds in the universe and I wish you well but you are deluded seeking help of the kind you wish on any public forum

true professionals only use these venues to spread disinformation not to provide minnows like us precious pearls of priviledged inormation elsehise they could not be bothered except to sneer

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Oslo, I don't want to get into forum tennis but the pros who post here are an outstanding source of information..they..or some of them, have contact God would envy. I respectfully disagree with you..no more from me on that.

oslo oskar 01:36 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
i can't divulge ,y sources either but the "pro's" that visit here are either not very major players ot are trolling for suckers dribbling their chum or bait

Bkk Cad 01:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Amigo: I have no idea, but it is clear that some money went into cross buying on eur/stg and eur/yen yesterday, which looks good for euro into the new year and is probably holding the euro up right now.


(stg/yen has just turned on the 15 min chart)
(you will at least see cable at 1.9090 today)

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:31 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Of course it could be a semi secret..afterall I can't divulge my sources either.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:25 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I know fund managers know this..they post here frequently...begging to pick their brains on this to see if they've heard the same thing or opposite. C'mon GVI guys...lend me a hand amigos ---->

dc fxq 01:21 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:18 GMT

Could be real or just folks talking their books, you know what I mean?

Bkk Cad 01:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
SAM cable ere

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I can't believe no one wants to respond to my post below..such an important issue. C'mon guys..what have you heard/read?

Ldn 01:18 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
U.S. Dollar Mixed As Gold Plunges
LINK

Bkk Cad 01:05 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Watch stg/yen here, if it can't take stops at 1.9970-80 level, it will zoom back to 1.9900 taking cable for the ride.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:53 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
For what it's worth I've read from sources I shall not mention that in this year end currency garage sale going on that there is a squaring of funds of course..we know that..but that there is a surplus of USD about to hit and a demand for Euros to fill the holes. Has anyone heard this or to the contrary? Important those with knowledge on this replies.

Bkk Cad 00:49 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
I should make myself more clear on that: Stg/yen wants 1.9850 for a stop feast to 1.94-1.96. A break of 1.9850 will push cable toward the 1.90 level.

(Yes, the Americans did not know 'when', but 'after' the 9.0 R quake 'happened', everybody knew that day! and so the TTA was alerted by the Americans, so they had at least 2 and a half hours to WARN of a possible tidal surge. which was a 20 foot wave moving at at 400 miles per hour, but they did not to 'save face'.

Bangkok Cad 00:40 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Day 6 of stg/yen range, still looking for a break of the 1.9850 level for another move toward 1.90 The last two tries have been ping-pong with slightly lower lows and lower highs tested on the band. The stg/yen weekly range does not do cable justice as there is still room for a move to 1.94 - 1.96 area imho

london rb 00:39 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
all my life i saw killed in one moment, i cry cry cry

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:34 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
hi folks it's been a long time since i have not posted been busy, and am very sad about the tsunami that hit and the lives that have been lost as a result. my heart goes out to them .

for those that are concerned, here is a blog.

http://tsunamihelp.blogspot.com/

GL GT

london rb 00:33 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
yes they knew it was going to happen, but they did not now when

bkk Thailand Cad 00:28 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
One local newspaper here is saying that the Thai Tourism Authority (TTA) knew about the quake and was warned of a possible tidal wave, but do not alert anyone as they were afraid it would hurt tourism.
My friend down in Phuket was caught in it. The next day he took a cab to the bus stop and the driver charged him over $50 US for the ride.

london rb 00:27 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
i cant understand why Tony Blaire hasnt said , a tv message, very wrong

Sydney 00:20 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Any one know if Indonesia Solo Raden Mas is safe

Atlanta-South 00:11 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco Analyst: Not to worry, YOUR concern is understood. May your friend & many others be found safe.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:09 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 23:44 GMT December 29, 2004
Excellent post.

SanFrancisco Analyst 00:06 GMT December 30, 2004 Reply   
My apology, now I am informed they "havent heard from him". No conclusion. Yet I understand their anxiety. My apology for standing out in the forum over the catastrophe. Onward ho.

 




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