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Forex Forum Archive for 02/1/2004

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ICT ML 23:46 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP...better look to hedge that SB possie after halftime.......seems the confederate army hasn't showed up to fight yet today....LOL

what a SB scenario....North vs South.....civil war symbolism rampant all over this SB.....LOL

Melbourne Qindex 23:46 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Alb Emm 23:44 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
France FinMin Mer - EZ, ECB To Present FX Position At G7 EZ-ECB position on their economy ,Mr Mer adds that no one questions the fact that the USD is very weak compared to just a year ago and that it is not tolerable that the world finances U.S. economic development. By this, he is referring to the U.S. twin deficits. This must be addressed along with the sustainability of growth at the G7 according to the French FinMin There have been a number of analyst reports on the subject addressing exactly these questions over the course of the past week. One school of thought,possibly posited by noted economist Medley according to rumors, is that the EU and Japan will find common ground and that they will work together to find a way
to keep USD from weakening that much further. Japan is said to be going into the meeting with a high degree of confidence that its stance on the domestic economy
and FX will be accepted. Another school of thought, probably still the more ascendant and popular, believes China and Japan will both be criticized for their lack of flexibility. Japan announced late Friday that it had undertaken
intervention to the tune of Y7.1 trln in January, roughly a third of intervention taken in the whole of 2003.
Reuters report.

Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe I have 1.2465 - 1.2490 on my platform

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:23 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
can someone kindly tell me the high-&-low seen on euro so far on banko de censored's fx-ticker?


Dallas GEP 23:22 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Going to watch the SB now. I got Carolina +7. That should be a lock/

Alb emm 23:18 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
First batch of Australian real estate auction clearance data for 2004 look soft, continue trend for weaker outcomes set in place in 4Q. Data are anecdotal to degree but will nevertheless be part of RBA board discussions; suggest housing demand cooling as hoped without plunging. Fits with market view rates will be held steady in February

GVI john 23:16 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
As for the other CB's, the BOC cut and it looks like the BOE will hike. Tale your pick....

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:15 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2490 1.2505 1.2523 1.2538 1.2553 1.2571 1.2600
LOWER BANDS 1.2461 1.2446 1.2428 1.2413 1.2398 1.2380 1.2351

USD/CHF UPPER BANDS 1.2585 1.2600 1.2619 1.2633 1.2648 1.2667 1.2696
LOWER BANDS 1.2556 1.2541 1.2523 1.2508 1.2493 1.2475 1.2445

GBP/USD UPPER BANDS 1.8264 1.8286 1.8312 1.8334 1.8355 1.8382 1.8425
LOWER BANDS 1.8221 1.8199 1.8173 1.8151 1.8130 1.8103 1.8060

GBP/JPY UPPER BANDS 193.12 193.35 193.63 193.86 194.09 194.37 194.83
LOWER BANDS 192.67 192.44 192.16 191.93 191.70 191.42 190.97

Perth AS 23:13 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Some in Asia markets may fret a bit over latest turn taken by bird flu outbreak: WHO says two sisters who died in Vietnam 10 days ago now confirmed as having contracted bird flu, perhaps from their brother; if true, would be 1st cases of disease being passed from human to human,its biggest fear is flu mutates, starts jumping from human to human, making it far harder to contain

A worry.

GVI john 23:12 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Perth AS- I keep reading that analysts are increasingly saying that policy will be left unchanged this week, but I notice that bank deposit rates are still priced for a hike. I'm not sure how to reoncile the two. Any thoughts?

Perth AS 23:08 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Over the weekend hearing the Payroll figures Friday from the US can be as high as 200.000 , any higher then the USD will shoot up prior tothe G7 without a doubt

Perth AS 23:06 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Noticed that the AFR have run two articles by theRBA watcher and columnist with Australian Financial Review Alan Mitchell expecting central bank will leave rates on hold at tomorrow's policy meeting; in weekend news article, Mitchell says strength of AUD/USD is likely to have changed RBA views on inflation outlook and wait-and-see stance could be adopted

someone on High seems to be trying to get their point across before the meeting.

Ldn Mvs 23:04 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
oops - "selling the rally" I mean of course :)

Ldn Mvs 23:03 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Wudn't get too excited about usdcad in Asia - most banks don't quote it in Asia - just too darn illiquid....personally prefer selling the dip on that one - if u look at dailies, have completed 5th upwave Friday...see 3 waves down from here to 1.3050'ish over coming days....who knows...M/T def a buy though!!

Ldn Mvs 23:01 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Cool - tks GEP - well kinda agree with ur view so was curious ...personally prefer the squaring of some shorts scenario ahead of G-7 as mkt heavily leaning one way, so if I was massively short wud wanna lock in some profit...couple that with BoJ danger + bird virus...well, I 'd rather be long usd/jpy fact I am haha Good luck anyway!

Dallas GEP 22:59 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
USd/CAD just had a small spurt up.

Dallas GEP 22:58 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
In my view, MOF is less likely to intervene prior to Asia session and thus price may tick down prior to that. Market action of course is light but this 105.50 area had provided good support in some of the other sessions. It's just my opinion of course but anyhting around 105.55 us a good buy in my book

Melbourne Qindex 22:53 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : ... // 1.8187 - 1.8225 - 1.8263* - 1.8302 // ...

Perth AS 22:51 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
WHO sees a possible case of person-to-person transmission of Bird Flu... China is running out of time to curb the spread of a deadly bird flu virus, the World Health Organisation has warned. The admonition came as the global body on Sunday reported the first suspected human-to-human transmission

Ldn Mvs 22:51 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP - why do u think that usd/jpy will prob hit it's low prior to Asia open? What is ur thinking on it....BoJ or just squaring up of some shorts or....?? cheers

Athens 22:40 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you traded nicely on Friday amd, very important, you were nimble and flexible. May I repeat that what I call an O/B territory doesn't mean that one can't make a profit if buying there but it does mean that the higher risk is on the other side. Well, to epeat what I always say, FX is the game of highest probabilities and least mistakes. Both these elements clearly rule out the word "certainty"...

Have a good trading week everyone.

Dallas GEP 22:40 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Hate to be redundant but watch usd/jpy carefully. Prior to Asia it will probably hit it's LOW for the day

Perth AS 22:39 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Howard told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio the major opposition's economic policies under new leader Mark Latham were regressive. "He'll be a fairly big spender and there's just a whiff of the cradle-to-grave state paternalism about some of the things he talks of," Howard said.
A Labor government would give preference to union-friendly companies when awarding taxpayer-funded procurement contracts, according to policy adopted by the center-left party at the weekend. Labor's government spending policy finalized on the last day of the party's national conference comes after it announced it would scrap Australian workplace agreements and beef up the powers of the Australian Industrial Relations Commission

not a good thing if Labour were to get in power in Aus bad for AUD.

Dallas GEP 22:38 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
To me USD/CAD can go long EVEN when usd is getting beat up with the other pairs. For example usd/chf has shorted about 14 pips since open BUT usd/cad is still around that 1,3244 area

Dallas GEP 22:35 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
OK my friend. I misunderstood because evrytime I took it long last week above 1.3280, you would comment that the 1.3280 area was OVERBOUGHT territory which I actually agreed with but I took it loong anyway and the finnaly short from 1.3275 and that lastly long from 1.3250.

Perth AS 22:33 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Noted RBA watcher and columnist with Australian Financial Review Alan Mitchell expects central bank will leave rates on hold at tomorrow's policy meeting. In weekend news article, Mitchell says strength of AUD/USD is likely to have changed RBA views on inflation outlook and wait-and-see stance could be adopted. Outcome of policy meeting to be made known at 2230 GMT Wednesday AUD bounce Friday night not enough to see pair trade back above September-January trendline now at 0.7650. NAB strategists say level has offered stern resistance and represents major impediment in near term. For now, pair on track to retest lows around 0.7530. Overall, bias remains for a push to 0.7450 view from the Dow J

Miami OMIL 22:30 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Interesting comments Athens and GEP as I am also going to sell the eur/usd on any failures of the resistance line. (/;->

Athens 22:26 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, medium term I am not bearish USD/CAD, rather the opposite, and still stick to what I said a couple of weeks ago, namely buying it on dips is the preferred tactic. However 1.33+ levels entered my short term O/B territoy on Friday and, again, this Monday the area 1.3310-50 remains mildly O/B. Needless to say that, barring a sharp and sustained downmove this wee, the O/B area will move higher as the week progresses.

Tony, a pleasure.

Dallas GEP 22:21 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
BTW Athens, I DO agree on your overall bearish view of USD/CAD. I am just playing the ranges here in the meantime. Looks like SAXXXXXOOO ir protecting the BUY price on USD/CHF with 1.3240/54 showing as the spread now with them.

nyc tony 22:17 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Athens..I for one greatly appreciate your insight.

The coming weeks or even months for range traders should be a delight. IMVHO I foresee some real ranges being played. I expect the euro break 1.23 in the next 2 weeks then back up to 1.26-1.28 then a downtrend for the rest of the year. FWIW. good luck to all

Dallas GEP 22:14 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
However my typing still sucks. THAT hasn't changed.

Dallas GEP 22:12 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
I have a USD/CAD long still open from last week from 1.3250. Market gapped down about 4 pips from that. Fairly neutral on thet possie. 1.3250 right now is resistance but if MOF comes in on USD/JPY we will see of course some dollar bullishness. I think procng action will be slow until perhaps Asia anyway. Can't see a whole lort wrong with a USD/JPY long with maybe a 30 pip stop.

Athens 22:06 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
An important question this week that cannot be answered so early is whether the market will go into the G-7 with an aggressive or a defensive attitude. Past history can't offer a rule of thumb in this case. With all input thus far pointing to a reference to currencies during the G-7, both cases are possible. Either the market will square to a large extent any sizable short USD positions prior to next weekend or will hand over to the policy makers the USD at low levels, practically challenging them to either show up their money or shut up (and this concerns more the ECB). Caution is advised.

Melbourne Qindex 22:01 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LAX DS 22:01 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   

st. pete islander 21:17 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
RTN & Webwolf .... Thanks. Yes, same error code. I'm sure they will fix it. gt

Brampton FF 21:05 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
UK ELC, Thanks! I will give that a shot for sure.


Sheffield Webwolf 20:54 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Alicante RTN
St Pete Islander

censored Failure

Are you getting error codes 10060 and/or 10061? If so it is their server connection problem.

Have emailed them and await their response

Alb emma 20:50 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Projects face a mid-year squeeze
By Florence Chong the australian
February 02, 2004
THE soaring Australian dollar could start to choke off business investment in the second half of the year, according to consultancy firm Access EconomicsThe latest quarterly Delta Electricity and Access Economics Investment Monitor, to be released today, says the value of commercial projects under way in Australia stood at $111.1 billion at the end of December, up 11 per cent on the same period last year.
Of that figure, $94.3 billion worth of work � on projects such as roads, gas pipelines, mines and office buildings � was already under construction with another $16.8 billion classified as "committed". However, the firm warned that a strong dollar could dampen growth in the second half of the year, with the value of proposed projects already down 5.2 per cent on a year ago at $11.2 billion. The December quarter saw the lowest level of new investment recorded in three years as the dollar rallied to close the year up 30 per cent on the US dollar. It closed on Saturday at US76.36c.
Access Economics said history suggested a low Australian dollar was an important factor in triggering surges in investment. While higher movements in the currency do not necessarily choke off investment straight away, a strong dollar could slow investment over the longer term. There is a lot of work at risk, with about $100 billion of projects listed by Access as "under consideration" and another $105.8 billion classed as "possible". Resource investment � which has most benefited Western Australia � has been a big part of Australia's investment strength of late, driven by Chinese demand for iron ore and to a lesser extent nickel. However, several larger projects will be completed in the coming months and the higher dollar may worsen a looming investment pause. Commercial building investment has also been strong of late, although several sectors may have peaked, including the retail sector, given the slowdown in consumer spending. Access Economics said the high dollar might encourage more investment in imported equipment or computer software investment. "All in all, there appears to be enough petrol in the tank for investment to get through the first half of 2004 in pretty good shape, although clearly there are now some macro risks to the outlook beyond that," it said

Ltn th 20:27 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 07:33 GMT // I dont understand your comment about NAB being vulnerable to falling AUD. Or have they reversed their short positions to loose on the roundabouts after the swings? Today will be interesting for AUD. It has nor yet really gone below its channel on the 8hr and daily charts with its consolidation. Except for very short day trades I dont see it as tradeable untill after G7.

UK ELC 19:51 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Brampton FF

You should try METATRADER free charts/datafeeds


Sofia QIP 19:43 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Islander// Today/ tonight one may expect net problems as it is the attack day of MyDoomA. Tuesday is the D Day of MyDoomB, FWIW

Alicante RTN 19:25 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
St Pete islander -

I cannot get in either - seems like their problem.

st. pete islander 19:08 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone that uses geee F teee tell me if they are able to log on to the system. I don't know if I have a computer problem or they do. tia

GVI john 18:30 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
We just read a survey indicating that 25 of 25 economists expect a BOE rate hike. For more Previews see GVI. Contact [email protected] for access.

GVI john 18:26 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Meeting: February 4/5
Repo Rate: 3.75%
Last 3 mo: 4.15%

Implied Futures:
MAR04: 4.260%
JUN04: 4.500%
SEP04: 4.730%
The Bank of England is now very likely to raise its repo rate by 25bp's on February 5. the common view now is that the central bank has turned to targeting "asset inflation" in the U.K. and has set aside any concerns about the low level of HICP inflation (+1.3% y/y in December). Both rising housing and stock prices have been a growing concern. The U.K. employment picture is robust as well.

prauge viktor 17:24 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
hello all:
I think there will be a very big move on the Yen/usd tonight in cet! and that because the BOJ will make a very agrrisve intervention to rise the yen to 106,8or 107 and it will try to hold it till friday,and I dont think that the yen is going to be 103 or 100 in the short time and theer will be anther move on the eur/usd to the level1,233 or 1,225during the next 14 days so goodluck for all traders.

Mtl JP 12:03 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 00:44 / amongst the many reasons, one that stands near the top is that US would have to raise rates in an environment that consisted of an alternative.

Global-View 11:08 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   


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Melbourne Qindex 10:55 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : It is going to be okay as long as the Swiss/Gold is trading above the 500 Mark.

Melbourne Qindex 10:35 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : On Monday, January 21 1980, spot gold hit the historical high in London afternoon fix at US$850. However at the end of that month the price of gold dropped by 23% and closed around US$650. Any gold bugs of my age would remmember that day. On Monday , January 12, 2004, spot gold reached the high around US$430 and at the end of this month it closed around US$402. Only time would tell for sure whether gold will consolidate between 340 - 370 in coming months.

italy 10:24 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
the risk of terroristic attacks,the buget presented tomorrow and the g7 ahead,next week dollar to resume his downtrend

hk ab 0.88 10:14 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Athens, what do you see your dlr/cad proposal?

nt// Thanks and will bear the range in mind.

Aussie is a very wild play now.
Summo wrestler strangle them every asian session while those yield chasers are still chasing for 0.8.

My view is that a no hike and a failure of a fall will be the signal to buy. a hike and a failure of a spike up will be a BIG sell.

Sure, syd will be keeping an eye on this animal as well. right?

GT to all.

flattened my audjpy positions and kept the aud shorts from .78 area .7785 and .7777.won't mind to trail it and wait to short higher after spike.

HONG KONG RAYLI 09:30 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   

Athens 09:25 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Some food for thought this Sunday, this is the opening paragraph of this week's Trendways Weekend Analysis:

Not unrightfully there are two dominant opinions in the market concerning January and the theories go a long way back in FX history. The first has it that this month sets the trend for the rest of the year. The second believes that January marks a medium or long term top or bottom for an already established trend. Personally I don't think that FX history supports one more than the other, however I can say that there have been cases where January was the odd month which either set a trend or marked the top/bottom level of a major reversal. The most typical case of such a major reversal I remember was that of January 1988 (the first trading day of that year in particular which I remember very well since I was lucky to trade that major low). The market was coming from the largest downtrend it had seen, a move which in $/DEM had started at 3.4780 in late February 1985 and reached 1.5610 on January 2 1988. That major bottom was the start of a long term corrective USD uptrend which ended at 2.0470 in June 1989. That was a 34 month Dollar downtrend (orchestrated by the then Treasury Secretary James Baker and implemented through Plaza and Louvre by concerted G-5 action) during which $/DEM depreciated by 55%. Do we have any similarities with that at present? Politically a difference is that in that old case the USD downtrend came to an end with Reagan having just been re-elected while now we still are at the start of an election year and with employment doing very poorly and growth not so strong as expected it is questionable whether the US Administration would really call for an end to the USD downtrend. In terms of similarities and courting EUR/$ from its 0.8350 major bottom seen in June 2001 (the 0.8225 historical bottom was marked in October 2000), we have a 32 month USD downtrend (or EUR uptrend if you prefer) in which EUR/$ has appreciated by 54% (39 months and 56% if the starting point is set at 0.8225). The similarity of these two huge trends is striking. Of course, 1.5610 ws not the end of the very long downtrend given that $/DEM fell to 1.3440 in 1995 to complete a 10 year downtrend, but it wouldn't be prudent to ignore an 18 month and 31% correction in the meantime. By no means am I implying that we are set for a repetition right now, however I believe it could be useful to keep the proportions in the back of our head.

Note: Please don't use these thoughts as a short term trading suggestion.

Melbourne Qindex 09:24 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD :  Trading strategy on Monday . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 07:44 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Expect the RBA to stand firm
It is now widely expected that the Reserve Bank will decide to leave interest rates on hold next Tuesday, despite the evidence of a strong rebound in economic growth .RBA watcher Alan Mitchell wrote in the Weekend AFR that despite evidence of a
strong rebound in economic growth, it is now widely believed that the RBA will leave interest rates on hold next Tuesday. The strong AUD and anecdotal evidence
that the property market is cooling off gives the RBA time to assess. The AUD/USD lost ground late last week after the FOMC statement sparke speculation that the Fed might be priming the market for a rate hike later this year. Analysts feel that if the RBA does hold off we could see the AUD weaken
against both the USD and the NZD. Only a week ago the speculation was that the Fed was on hold for a long time (maybe not), the RBNZ would hold off due to
concerns over the strong Kiwi (they tightened 25 bps) and the RBA was likely to go another 25 bps (recent polls show only 25% believe they will go next week).
House sales cool as silly season ends
The summer break is over . . . and property sellers are starting to sweat,
Melbourne property prices stall
The Melbourne property market appears to have stalled. By Nicole Lindsay

Ldn 07:33 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Falling dollar could blow out NAB losses

After news that National Australia Bank is still exposed to currency options, the local foreign exchange market is pondering the possibility of more losses for the bank if the Australian dollar takes a tumble. afr.

Hong Kong nt 05:53 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
New England JSB 21:38 GMT -- 1.815 is a possibility. Good trades...

Hong Kong nt 05:43 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
Ga Lee 12:59 GMT -- Thanks. Good trades to you...

tassie judda 02:35 GMT February 1, 2004 Reply   
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