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Forex Forum Archive for 02/04/2004

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melbourne farmacia 23:59 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 23:29 GMT February 4, 2004
I was worried overnight regarding Cable as she came very close 2 making a reversal on my directional tool ( saved by a fib at 1.8281 ) The risk short term is @ 1.8280 breaking for another visit at 1.8080, but for today at least, gbp should range between 1.8280 and 1.8372. I would look to buy within the sub 1.8300 level only if indicators support a long etc.. looks like we need london zone for this 2 happen. GT

Dallas GEP 23:56 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP What I am looking for basically on a 1 hour chart is for the candle to go through the upper bollinger band and the stoch to have turned downward. If that matches up and MACD is neutral or sloping downward I will be in.

Dallas GEP 23:52 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Eur/GBP looks like a good SELL to me around .6855. Especially so if cable manages to stay bid compared to euro. Based on that I have a sell order @ .6855. May adjust later

Livingston nh 23:47 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Andras - at least we should get some action

Pecs Andras 23:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
nh
Thanks for your view.
I do remember though that at the last hike cable did not just spike and then pull back but rocketed like crazy.
So anything can happen tomorrow.

Livingston nh 23:37 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs andras - if MPC hikes I would fade the spike regardless of US claims (hikes are usually bad for consumer economies) - bad weekly employment figs may give the USD a bad ride into the next day's numbers and I think BoJ won't be around until Monday// EUR is bumping up against its 21 da mava again but may pop thru and Cable is still holding above its rising 21 da mva // G7 may be an excuse for a USD sell-off but probably no new highs for EUR and company -- new hi for Yen

Dallas GEP 23:36 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I may wait for usd/jpy to get down to 105.20 and then long it with a target of 105.60 with a stop above fig. Will see.

Dallas GEP 23:34 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I am out with 10 PIP gain on this EUR/USD short. This is frustrating I can make a WHOLE lot more money playing blackjack than I could today with all this NON-movement.

Pecs Andras 23:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Morning to you Paul
Yes, I did, with a 20 pip win. It did not go much further anyway.
How do you see cable for today and Friday?
Buy or sell?

melbourne farmacia 23:26 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 23:17 GMT February 4, 2004
Morning/ evening Andra, did you cover Aud/usd short ?

Pecs Andras 23:17 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 22:48 GMT February 4, 2004
Interesting comment.
So you would expect a slight spike up on cable if there is a hike, and then a pullback at the initial claims?
What if no hike?
And you expect a big seloff of the dollar on Friday after the jobs data?

Dallas GEP 23:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Don't expect usd/cad to have alot of movement in Asia. It has it's most movement in US sesssions normally.

Livingston nh 22:48 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
FWIW -- Well by this time Monday I dont' think anybody will be complaining about dull market -- MPC rate hike a 1/4 point is a given, right?? Gilts expect it and the perceived wisdom is a slight bounce in cable if there is a hike -- IMO no hike tomorrow, long rates are up a bit and CBs follow the market with a lag - bad political timing for a hike and too close to G-7 (if there is a hike I would fade the spike) - better to squeeze money a bit w/o a rate hike right now

Treas Sec Snow says he expects stronger employment figures - well tomorrow the weekly claims figures should show a big drop in extended claims as folks run out of benefits and drop off the rolls - the next day Monthly Employment figures should show a much more modest increase than the 150k expectation (and the rate should rise to 5.9% as the folks who disappeared last month come back into the Labor Force)

AND finally G-7 - what can they do? Japan wants a stronger USD but what more can they do and the EU (Germany) intervention would not work w/o US -- the 800 pound gorilla in the currency market won't be there so any statement is going to be ignored -- the USD should sell off

Alb Emma 22:47 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
State Street Global Investors cuts overweight AUD position to neutral in latest global currency portfolio as reflation trades are unwound as investors become more risk averse. However, maintain overweight ZAR position as long ZAR positions already unwound, making it less risky than AUD.
AFP

Any longer term traders with a view on the Aud . would like to share their views

Melbourne Qindex 22:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : 1.8314 - 1.8330 -----> 1.8259 - 1.8267

SNP 22:24 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEPster :-)
Congrats & GL big time 4 Jr's TN show ... i gotta check it out when i get home - the mkt is so flat today that I've practically sleep-watched it but expecting some movers-shakers to wakeup and makeup in the preG7 posturing

Re: the 9:2 ratio, well that's what the superbowl adtvg by the big 3 'disfunction'ers was all about. No kidding but when i heard the names Kyalis & Nitana(?) for the first time, i actually asked one of my black friends if he knew these 2 hotties

P.S. Thanks JB it seems that even if BoJ is not bigger than the mkt, it is a lot smarter ;-)

Dallas GEP 22:23 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I have a buy order now on USD/CHF @ 1.2490 (1.2485 BID)

Dallas GEP 22:18 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
TECHNICALLY speaking 1.3380 is reachable if we all live long enough!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 22:16 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
tell you what friends I am closing my usd.cad long from 1.3320 here @ 1.3340 for 20 pips. I might could get more but I don't trust continuation movements very much right now.

Dallas GEP 22:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
SNP that beer drinking will get you in trouble like when you go to bed with a 9 and you wake up with a 2!!!!! LOL

BTW My son is in Hot Rod Magazine's PUMP GAS DRAGS race which is a select group of 50 cars considered to be the fastest street driven cars in America as selected by the editors of Hot Rod Magazine. Race is May 1st in Memphis.

On the currency side, see how USD/CAD can long and Euro can long at same time???? Even with usd/chf shorting.

SNP is thankful for the cache mem 21:59 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Last time I heard ... a porpoise was something like a cross between a manatee and a sea lion, or was it a dolphin, no wait it was Shamu the killer whale from San Diego Sea World ! ;-)

GEP ... coldness can be cured by shiny, bright objects ;-) j/k esp. the De Beers kind

GVI john 21:59 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2545…. $/yen 105.50
DJIA 10,505, +6 pts…NASDAQ 2,066, +3 pts
10-yr 4.11%, -4 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
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beirut jb 21:56 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
SNP 21:40 GMT

well I think BOJ r only buying time,

they r thinking that european will start to fight euro strengh
and Fed should sooneror later revise higher their interest

so BOJ is just buying time and he did well so far,and BOJ certainely knows that he could not stand alone for ever

SNP 21:51 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
BTW the last post was mine - this baby comp is cookie-free for some reason

Dallas GEP 21:48 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
No JM, not really RE: usd.cad long. I think 1.3309 will hold it unless euro goes crazy and usd/chf dumps.

Dallas GEP 21:46 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
At this time it appears that Eur/USD may be destined to revist the 1.2550 area once again before shorting.

Mfld JM 21:44 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - Are you starting to re-think the USD/CAD long? (nice comeback)

beirut jb 21:42 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
$/cad is long on daily basis and need to close above 13164 friday to reverse to long also on weekly basis,

on the other hand it's obvious that $/cad need to break the ~ 3 months range hi at 13441 to clear the risk of pullback to 12X again

today caddy gains when almost all other currencie lost vs $
this event gave bearish some hope but IMO tomorrow will be decisive with all numbers and decisions and close friday whould
give confirmation for either way,

today cady stayed less than 2 minute exactly on the top wich is a tough rejection but later it hold ~13390 and made lower hi before droping when all other currencies poped!!!

so it's crasy a little bit But I will keep my long until $/cad close under 13164 on daily basis

GL for all

SNP 21:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
dear all
since the last couple of years, EurUsd has gained from the mid 80s to the high 1.20s, UsdChd has fallen from the low 1.70s to the low 1.20s - in the same amount of time UsdJpy went from 1.35 to 1.05 (courtesy of BoJ)
In Jan, the Japs threw a record 7.1 tr yen @ the Usd and continue to interfere or intervene with the natural order of flows.
If the Chf & Eur have gained 50 cents, I'm assuming that the real market price for Jpy would be near 85 cents and we are a good 20 cents away from that level.

Even if the Chf & Eur depreciate 20 odd cents, shouldn't Jpy still be stuck near the 105 handle since it never depreciated like the contis ?
Also if the market is bigger than all its participants how come the BoJ is still the only 'man standing' ?
I'd really appreciate your views & opinions

Dallas GEP 21:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD ...Yeah the thing did pop down there at 18, where it hasn't really been seen; thought for a minute it was a dream, but it was only that censored pip ticker machine!!!!!

Mfld JM 21:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I think the Cad was mad we were sad with its' fad, so it got rad for a tad!

Dallas GEP 21:15 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Guess we are pausing here for NY close!!!!!

Dallas GEP 21:13 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Does look frozen doesn't it????? RE: Caddy Reminds me of my first wife!!! LOL

Porto PJT 21:12 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
correction, last 10 days, not 14.

Mfld JM 21:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Did someone dump liquid Nitrogen on the Caddy?

Porto PJT 21:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw,Today, eur usd range 66 pips, against 179, eur jpy 63 pips range against 154, usd chf 74 against 159, all are daily averages from high to low made on the day, last 14 days.
gbp made 113 of 211.
Ratios long/short positions are interesting, only around 12/14% are long usd cad, usually a good contrarian indicator.

Dallas GEP 21:07 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
As a matter of fact, Jim Morrison is cranking up his tunes now!!! LOL

Joburg cd 21:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Calm down GEP you've got The Doors on way too loud. Patience, the break she's coming...

Dallas GEP 20:58 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
BREAK baby BREAK, I will put the MOJO on you!!!!

Dallas GEP 20:55 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, yeah perhaps you are right but where is the FUN in that??? LOL

Miami OMIL 20:49 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
The smart thing to do here is wait to see where the market is going first before running up the hill with out cover. I rather be the tail of a lion than the head of a mouse LOL. (/;->

Pecs Andras 20:46 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I mean a "porpoise" :-)
Maybe a dyslexic tortoise? LOL

BEIRUT MK 20:46 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, for me 1.344 is a clear top,
waiting a clear signal to short maybe at 1.3270

thank you.

MOW VD 20:46 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hihi
Yes, Dallas, today's high has been 1,3440... or the tech target of 60% fibo... so retracement on profit taking and long covering semms to be reasonable plus poor indexes today

Pecs Andras 20:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP
What the heck is a purpoise?
LOL

Dallas GEP 20:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I did that on porpoise!!!!!

Stockholm za 20:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw.. ....EUR/USD......
Today we had one of our typical
(triangle pivot) play = time decay factor at ~78,8 %
The inner spectrum was qualified..as noted
(At least for the time been) = ~[1,2560-: -1,2472]
Happy trades....

Dallas GEP 20:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dammmm it is 1.3441 isn't it???? Anyway I am long from 1.3320 so I really expect to see at least 30 pips.

Dallas GEP 20:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Sorry the high today on USD/CAD was 1.3341 so I meant it would at least break that. I am not sure yet about tonight.

Dallas GEP 20:37 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
MK it will short first

Pecs Andras 20:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
OK GEP, thanks.
So you think CAD may long to the 34xx tonight or in Asia?

Dallas GEP 20:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
YES Andras I did

Dallas GEP 20:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Andras, conservative stop could be 1.3309 or 1.3274 for more room.

BEIRUT MK 20:31 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
eurusd is building an inverse H&S on
the 30 min and soon it will break the 1.2565

thank you.

Pecs Andras 20:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
And GEP
Didn't you mean a high of 3441 on the CAD?

Pecs Andras 20:27 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP
What do you see as a good stop on a USD/CAD long now?
I am considering a wider stop, being afraif of whipsaws.

Dallas GEP 20:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I am starting to beleive there may be a decent chance to break BOTH the Eur/USD low today of 1.2495 and the usd/cad high of 1.3341. USD/CAD high is MORE likely.

London, I like that usd/chf long from about 1.2480 if seen.

london 20:15 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
i´m not realy a daytrader like GEP, but everyone to their own. however, with the market in its present state SAS style tactics i.e. quick in and out is the order of the day. if there are any short term players here, well, everything is setting its self up for some serious wonga. jack be nimbe jack be quick

Miami OMIL 20:13 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 19:52 GMT February 4, 2004
If I may be so bold as to ask if you are paying for the pci signal. Is the signal a proprietary signal using moving averages to confirm? (/;-> tia

london 20:12 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
a nice position would also be a usdchf long. again a tight stop should yield 100 to 250 pips over he next couple of days barring a jobs data catastrophe.

Dallas GEP 20:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
No cd:

Dummer than a box of rocks
As confused as a puppy with two tails
Face so ugly only a mother could love her

ALL those and many more are southern expressions supposedly.

Joburg cd 20:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
12546, sorry

Miami OMIL 20:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP not many people can squeeze what ever the market has as good as you and believe me the market does not have much right now lol. (/;->

Joburg cd 20:07 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the tip London, am in agreement here. GEP, is that your own cat metaphor LOL? re 20pts, sitting on 13 since 12446, 7 to go!

Dallas GEP 20:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
You assume wrong MB!!!! He is just like a bookie, he gets the juice whether you win; lose or draw!!!!

Dallas GEP 20:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
As a matter of fact, it is hard to even squeeze 20 pips out of these possies now. VERY VERY tight

malta mb 20:02 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
dallas

i assumed my beloved broker would give me zero spread on that for once :)

Dallas GEP 20:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I will second that London. Actually once 30 PIPS is seen I would start trail stop to assure yourself of 20 pips and then maybe try for 40 and close OR just close at 30 pips.Market is as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs!!!

Gen dk 19:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london 19:55 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
btw, don´t forget to cover and reload once 1.2510 is hit. this market is far too nervous to give a big wad all in one go.

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
MB, actually on that deal you would lose whatever the spread was every time you took a possie!!!!

BEIRUT MK 19:52 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
PCI signals to buy eur since 1.2460X stops at 1.2355
yesterday i closed a long pos from 1.2459 at 1.2570
and rebuy again at 1.2535.
today stops should be at 1.2363

thank you.

BEIRUT MK 19:44 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
cd, i work on PCI signals on daily chart
for i long time and it worked 75% very well.

malta mb 19:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
beirut

that's the safest pair usdusd...not much room for profit though either...

BEIRUT MK 19:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
sorry , usdcad

Joburg cd 19:36 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
This is interesting... Beirut can you give a bit more info on why you're long Eur, against what GEP & London suggests...

BEIRUT MK 19:33 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
close short usdusd at 1.3327
seams 1.3320 will hold
thank you.

Dallas GEP 19:20 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Charles, everyone would be required to take a stress test first!!!! LOL. Actually I learn something every day on this forum from someone else so that to me is one of it's purposes!!!!

You know if the earth was rotating on it's axis, some of these ccy's wouldn't be moving at all!!! LOL

london 19:18 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
the euro is hugging the upper 4 hour chart trendline. i profer my opinion that we have probably seen the high point for a while. selling at this level with a 50pip stop at 1.26 will yield at least 100pips minimum and anything up to 200pips over the next 2 DAYS. tia. never send a human to do a machine´s job. the system always prevails where our human emotions fail us.

BEIRUT MK 19:14 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
still long eurusd at 1.2535 target 1.26X
seams usdcad has topped at 1.34X
short at 1.3330 target 1.324X stop 1.3450
thank you.

Memphis Charles 18:55 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, Jay needs to sponsor a 'day of day trading with Dallas-GEP' I think we could all learn something.

Dallas GEP 18:42 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
ALMOST took 20 pips profit on usd/cad long but decided to leave it open. Looks to have more range really on the upside.

Porto PJT 18:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
usd mxn, what happen?

Dallas GEP 18:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hawk, this is a deal where I throw alot of lots at it with a tight stop and if it hits it I am out. So I risk 15 pips to get maybe 40-50 pips. That's the way I look at it.

london p 18:36 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
he didnt say how far above todays high lol

Dallas GEP 18:36 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
No Andras I was waiting for .6860 but it looked to me that eur/usd is topping out here so I took it short (eur/usd that is)

Moscow Hawk 18:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Once again EUR/USD bounced from 1.2300-50 to the upper part of the range and for sure market has given many opportunities to those who has played range. But now I want to remind my Jan 7 post.

«...But how it can happen that the major correction takes place in environment when almost everybody expect euro acts such way. I think market needs more time with intraday swings and routine range trading to make market participants disoriented and overall picture not so clear before the major move and probably major reversal...»

We have seen enough swings and range trading. Despite the range is still the name of the game I expect change to more trend market one or other side next few weeks. I also like that current sentiments are not so unanimous about EUR/USD direction.

I certainly favour downside break of the range while 1.2600-65 limits the upside. Clear break of indicated zone will change picture to neutral with upside risk.

Good luck

Moscow Hawk 18:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, it could be nice possie but your stop might be unsafe. GT

Pecs Andras 18:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Are you already in the EUR/GBP short?

Dallas GEP 18:24 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Just took Eur/USD short @ 1.2550. Stop above today's high

Dallas GEP 18:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
See ya BB. Probably not a bad idea. I think I can pip raid for @ 100 pips or so before G7 but because action is so slow I might not be able to make enough turns and it would take probably 4-5 positions at that.

london p 18:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
pound seems to be firming nicely against the dollar could lead the way up after leading the drop

Dallas GEP 17:55 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
AB, Oh no, I don't want expert tag!!! Experts tend to always be wrong in the end for some reason or other. LOL

hk ab 0.88 17:44 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, u are the expert of all those cad mini trade.

Gen dk 17:44 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.88 17:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
oh come on, don't lose those lines....
dlr/jpy 105,
aud/jpy 80
cad/jpy 78
eur/jpy 131

OK SZ 17:26 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
biscuitboy, need to ask you a question..can I get your email address again please..I lost it

hk ab 0.88 17:22 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, gold retreats a little today.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Well im off for a long weekend. Too narrow a range for me. Still short euro and have orders to sell more higher up. GL and GT.

hk ab 0.88 17:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
nt, is it the time on nzd yet?

Dallas GEP 16:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
The problem with eur/gbp is it doesn't react like you think it would alot of the time. It NORMALLY will tend to go the direction of the euro irregardless of the pound BUT I have seen eur short and pound long and eur/gbp go LONG so go fiigure. I think mainly you have to trade the ranges as they develop. The good news is it doesn't rapidly move in wild swings so stops can be kept reasonable.

HK Kevin 16:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 16:50 GMT, it's really a confused market. This afternoon, my chart reading has a sell signal of Aussie around 7616, but I didn't act on it.

hk ab 0.88 16:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GGEP, the eur/gbp is confusing me.

I think it's a big SELL time and .68 will finally opens for s/t.

However, the bottom formation in 4hrs couldn't be something ignored.

Dallas GEP 16:44 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Nice SAVE AB. Those are more impressive than the wins sometimes.

hk ab 0.88 16:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
close aud/nzd short from SAR 1.1188 at 1.1155

33 pips - 32 pips = 1 pip profit.... :(

Gen dk 16:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Will buy some USD/CAD here @ 1.3320, looking for just 1.3350. Buing in layers for now.

beijing road 16:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
sam: me too. tonight added new eur long positions, 8 lots now. Hope to take 1.26 soon.

HK Kevin 16:23 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 16:09 GMT Re: EUR/JPY: I am not surprise to see it re-test 133.60 (50 ma in the daily chart) again with the help of EUR to test 1.2620/40. Wait if you want to sell.

hk ab 0.88 16:14 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, good one.

slv sam 16:13 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
increased my long euro posie..it feels comfortable.GT

FRA 16:13 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trichet probably will give in to political pressure from France and lower EURO interest rates. France has a long history of currency devaluations.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
be carefull too if price can not wake up from 1.8274, you can buy more at 1.8225 (bid) because that level is cheapest if be shown you. but too difficult if sellers make down pressure since 1.8274 to get 1.8225.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Stockholm za 16:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY......... at the moment.....
8456-8446
8436-8433
8420
8407-8404
8394-8384
Range at the moment ~8471-:-8367
When it`s lost it`s lost......
Happy trades......

hk ab 0.88 16:09 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, what do you see on eur/jpy?

I think the pair is resembling its brother dlr/jpy and being flirted on the 130 line artificially.

HK Kevin 16:06 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 15:59 GMT, I think it's 1.3250 and 1.3450.

Porto PJT 16:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Tonight 16:00 , ty, my platform show me 88.I doubt is low with reason.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
be carefull gbp/usd when at 1.8274 (bid). maybe move up from there. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

beirut jb 16:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
$/cad should clear 13370 and 134 to test recent hi

Nottingham 16:02 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
FRA 15:54 GMT:

If the US can handle it so can the UK...it's been over a decade since talk first started about how the huge US defecit would eventually weaken the dollar and only recently have we started to see it take effect...the UK would probably welcome such an event, only that a decade would be too long, rather have it in time for euro entry (god forbid imo)...gl gt

Melbourne Tonight 16:00 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
pjt
eurusd low 1.2495/99 censored

hk ab 0.88 15:59 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, we have a good fight between two barriers in cad 1.3350 and 1.3430 now.

Aden PK 15:56 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Stop at .6882 just above the resistance line

Porto PJT 15:55 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Need eur usd low, please last spike down after numbers.tia.

FRA 15:54 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
What will the impact of a UK interest rate hike be on the already huge UK trade and budget deficits?

Aden PK 15:54 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, sorry from .6860 or even at .6854 just below the previous high

Aden PK 15:52 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dalas GEP, I too intend to short EUR/GBP from .6660 with stop at 66.82 just above the resistance line, I wish you & myself goodluck for this trade if limit order filled. I must say your views I highly respect.

Melbourne DC 15:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
gep
reasonable to short 45-55 if it is just reflecting eur n gbp moves . GT n all the best . DC.

Dallas GEP 15:46 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
tonight I think I would short from .6860 level. It may not get there though.

Aden PK 15:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi Chicago CAL, Refer my earlier posts on EUR/USD & GBP/USD my targets acheived on my short positions in both pairs I am square now I hope you have not entered a long position in Cable, Good Luck and Good Trades.

As a courtesy you must acknowledge the post if it is adresssed to you. I have mentioned earlier these are personal views based on Market information and I never intend to hurt any one. Every one views I always respect.

Helsinki iw 15:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
While discussing the price of imports they might decide to
rename Bud to Freedom Brew and have one of those instead?

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, problem is eur was v. bid in that dived from foolnews source.

Ld 15:42 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
UK bids were seen just below the 1.2500 level, not surprising as EUR/GBP bounces sharply from below 0.6820 to 0.6840 now. Stops are still seen gathering below the 1.2490 level, down through 1.2475.

bucharest dc 15:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
good morning, guys

HK Kevin 15:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:23 GMT, thank you. GIve me USD/CAD 1.3250 and EUR/CHF 1.5660 today.

Mtl JP 15:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Irish / re Molsen: hope that spelling and pronunciation problems are not contagious, altho inbibing in Molson is known for that effect on accasion. Cheers

nyc jk 15:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
no problems, eh. now as long as they address how expensive a Molson is at a bar in NY...........

Chicago Irish 15:37 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
JK:Cardinal Sin ..but you get me meaning right?...My apologies eh? :-)

Melbourne Tonight 15:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
gep 1529
sad but true .. but still the financial rewards is very reasonable if one is conservative and not trying to go for home-runs all the time.
What would you do with eurgbp now given, as someone mentioned, its rising while eurusd is not (ie gbp weakness)?

nyc jk 15:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Irish, as a Canadian I take offense to your comments, it is spelled MOLSON lol.

Chicago Irish 15:33 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Panama: take the NYC close at 5 p.m. E.S.T.as the "close"

nyc tony 15:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
rate of the currency at nyc session close.

Panama City Beach Duuuude 15:30 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Determining the change of currency pairs:

Hey guys...I'm gradually making the transition form futures to Forex and I've got a general question. How is the change determined since the market doesn't close? For instance, if the EUR/USD is down .0015 today, is it down from the 'close' of 11:59:59pm from the previous day?

Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Tonight, the reality is most of us won't do well trading currencies, that's a fact. I truly beleive though this forum DOES help.

Chicago-Too close to Canada Irish 15:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
How much is a pint of Molsen in America eh?
How much is a pint of Molsen in Europe eh?
Really? Jeez.
OK dat takes care of dem currency discussions,What's next on the agenda eh?

Ldn 15:23 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Canadian Official Says G7 To Discuss Currencies

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:23 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, did you catch my post yesterday? I exit the short at 1.5660 as I lost my patience last night.

I think this pair needs a bit longer range trading for the coming months. However, my confidence is on the downside and would not mind to reshort again at those 1.57 margin with s/l above 1.5720.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:20 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
place exit order for aud/nzd short at 1.1460 if 1.1450 cannot be broken today.

Melbourne Tonight 15:20 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Gep 1510
tat sounds really gloomy , maybe i should quit while i still have my shirt on :))

Dallas GEP 15:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks JK I will do that!!!

HK Kevin 15:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp, anyy hints about EUR/CHF. I begin to loss patience.

Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I blew out my usd/jpy longs with a 6 pip loss. I did this MAINLY because while I have been holding this possie for days, there were other possies that I COULD have been in that would have made at least 80-100 pips so the opportunity costs are too high IMO to hold on to this possie. This 105.50/55 level that was bid up to by no doubt our BOJ boys and they are NOT getting any help at all pushing it so there it is. Of course I am sure now, it will probably long like there is no tommorrow!!!!

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:16 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
now we have eur/gbp up when eur drops.....

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:15 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
sell a little dlr/jpy 105.50 here.

nyc jk 15:13 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I'm not sure how clear that is but if you want more details GEP get my email from Jay.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 15:12 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
phew... tight SAR....
this nzd seems follow the path of cad few months ago when they hike the first 25 and then retreat back 2 x 25 later.

ldn 15:12 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
ISM Jan non-mfg business index rose to 65.7 vs Dec 58.0, suggesting a strong rebound in non-mfg activity. Employment was only 53.4 vs 54.0 in Dec, suggesting a slower rate of increase than a month ago. The non-mfg survey is not a composite index, so the biz activity index is a separate measure and represents strength in January

HK Kevin 15:12 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:48 GMT, don't trade EUR today. But short some USD/CAD at 1.3422, s/l above 1.3477, 200ma in the daily chart. Also keep short EUR/CHF from 1.5632 and 1.5694. The latter made me a little bit worry as it still refuse to drop.
I think EUR is a good buy intraday at 1.250? for 1.2620/40, s/l below 1.2480, good risk and reward.

Dallas GEP 15:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
YEah Tonight, seems like one big monopoly game to me!!! Difference being when you START the game someone already has Boardwalk and Park Place and has Hotels on them and you have to constantly avoid them while you are trying to build you own little nest egg!!!!

Gen dk 15:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc jk 15:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
they wouldn't know all the orders GEP, you are right they may only deal with 2 or 3 banks at a time. but those banks would match off any internal sellers they had and they would work the BOJ orders on the EBS machine, so all those other banks you are talking about getting given dollars would just clear them out by hitting the bids on the EBS and deal there with whatever counterparty bank is bidding on behalf of BOJ.

Melbourne Tonight 15:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Would your question be similar to how the entire forex market trades at the same price? i dunno the answer. DC.

Ldn 15:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
US Factory Orders Rose 1.1% In Dec
US Factory Orders Rise Higher Than Expected

Riga Nick 15:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Re: Dallas; Ger
Compleetly agree with you. Even if somebody somehow got to know where big orders are placed now, to amend or cancel those orders is just matter of seconds. So I don't really think there can be relyable information.

Dallas GEP 15:02 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
JK, how would they be aware of ALL the orders coming into the various banks??? Maybe in reality there are only 2-3 banks that the majority of all the currency transactions are cleared through, I dunno. It would almost HAVE to work that way because the MOF BOJ folks couldn't be in constant contact with say 50-60 banks????

Ldn pm 15:02 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
$/Cad might not be the one to follow for Eur/$ direction today. I saw on a site earlier that Canada has a C$ 2.3 bln, 10-year bond auction today with result due ard 18.00 gmt. Perhaps Cad$ buying on the back of this ?

Ldn 15:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
US ISM Jan Non-Mfg Business Index 65.7 Vs Dec 58.0

ICT ML 15:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP...I dunno man..thougth it was a long at London opening....but NO.....signals are AFU right now

nyc jk 14:59 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I have even known of the odd instance as well where they may say something like "105.30..just buy and keep me posted" or whatever the Japanese translation is of that lol.

Dallas GEP 14:58 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Well ML It is better than watching cement dry!!! LOL I thought you might be all over this pound long?????

nyc jk 14:58 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - you are right they don't know in advance how much will be sold, but they will start by leaving a couple large orders with some banks, say buy a yard at 32 and another yard at 31 and then they will be on the phone with the bank sales person as the order is getting done, once it gets done or close to done, they will just leave more orders at the same level if that is the level that they are trying to support, repeat if necessary etc.

slv sam 14:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
buying euro 1.2505 filled!GT

ICT ML 14:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
too much excitement for my taste...LOL I'm out of here for awhile.

Dallas GEP 14:53 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Always wondered EXACTLY how one would know if you were MOF for instance, it would take to keep to keep price levels above a specific level. You would almost have to know ACROSS the board how many sell usd/jpy orders there were so you could IMMEDIATELY counteract those with buy orders. All these transactions ceratinly are not cleared thru ONE source so how does that work exactly. Anyone got any inside knowledge on this????

slv sam 14:48 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:40 /
indeed! will be happier thou when euro regain 1.26 level.GT

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
VL, you have a swiss possie now????

HK Kevin 14:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:16 GMT, right. EUR ready for fly again.

phils VL 14:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
watch out for the Swiss acrobatics going into Zurich close

melbourne farmacia 14:30 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Kia Ora - What's up with the NZD rocket tonight ?

phils VL 14:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
chance for usd/jpy - very short term mom osc turning up for both swissy and chf/jpy - if oscs continue up usd/jpy may visit 106

CT DB 14:26 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
fastest euro move of the day!

phils VL 14:25 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - I'm with you, long usd/jpy from 40, and of course looking for BOJ. My only strategy is to ride on BOJ going into g7, as my s/l is sub 105.

Cheers and GL

slv sam 14:24 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP/
watching this line!

Dallas GEP 14:21 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Sam USD/CAD will probably bounce from 1.3340

slv sam 14:16 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
$/CAD price action tells me strongly to buy the euro/$ immediately!GT

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
VL, I am looking for this USD/JPY to long enough for me to at least get out on this set of lots @ BE @ 106.63. IF not then so be it. While I don't necessarily agree with your percentages, BIAS is definitely down. BOJ WILL come in tho IMO. Their resolve is relentless in my view.

phils VL 14:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - usd/jpy - forget about the 1. & 2. ...purely academic.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 14:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
last line b4 my dinner.

I believe the truth telling line in aud/jpy is at 78 not 79.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 14:02 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Make a guess, which currencies would BOJ likes to put in their pockets? hm... many attempts to push the jpy crosses above lines over the last week. eur/jpy 130, aud/jpy 80 and cad/jpy 78. Now let those players let us know the truth.

phils VL 14:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - agree with you and A of Y, if talking about general direction, but consider this -

1. 90% chance it will drop from 60 (if it gets there) to 25, OR
2. 10% chance it will bounce to 85 from 25, with BOJ

which will you choose?

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 14:00 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
filled first long aud/nzd

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 13:55 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
order at 1.1220 long aud/nzd tight SAR under fig. 1.1188

Dallas GEP 13:53 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
ARTY, the easier play is to go short NO DOUBT. I wouldn't from here however from 105.70/80 seems like a good spot. MOF didn't really react with the force thus far that I thought they would (either that or the yen bulls were very STORNG)and they were beaten back down fairly quickly. I think the high we saw over the last couple of days was 106.61. Of course "nothing worthwhile is EVER very easy", so we will see my friend.

phils VL 13:49 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP - hope so.... but as long as abv 20, and it drops slowly at 2 pips per hour, unlikely they will object until maybe 10 or 20, IF they have to protect 105.00. The big Toyota guy has given fair warning that below 105 is unacceptable, and if this holds, it would mean that BOJ has to take action at the 10 -20 lvl.

LA ARTOFYEN 13:44 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
What's easier play Dallas? Buying usdyen infront of the BOJ bids here at 105 or selling below 106 in face of all these yards being bought? The specs are mroe on the side of buyiing usd yen as the sellers have the greater need to do so for natural flow purposes....but that is just my bias...gl matey

Dallas GEP 13:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
VL. I think market will test BOJ again.

phils VL 13:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy - market appears well behaved and cautious of BOJ presence. Under this scenario, unlikely that BOJ wud offer head. Will therefore just wait and see, and hope market tempted to pull a trick and pump a BOJ response.... whence yours truly will TP....

Dallas GEP 13:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Arty, so the bears need to back off eh???? You may be right but it seems to me the thiness in the market has more bulls sidelined than bears but I could be wrong.

beijing road 13:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
After eur took out 12490 level, it has hold above that level for one day. Still holding eur long position for the next push up.

Nottingham 13:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 13:26 GMT:

Might be some truth in that as I understand 103.80 is a significant level

LA ARTOFYEN 13:31 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, think you need more help from the usd bears than the dollar bulls on that one. The bulls have been doing everything in their power to stay afloat but if they can't back the bears off, then look for all those option strikes and stops below 105 to be run big time....First crack in armor would be 105.75 business now...gl

Helsinki iw 13:30 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Andras, I think the world is buying OTM yen calls over the
G7 weekend, just in case the US gets their way. Volatilty is
cheap: a few days ago 2w 103 yen calls were 20 pips. Some
risks you want to take.

Gen dk 13:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Pecs Andras 13:26 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I am reading now of a large 103.90 Yen call option having been bought recently (2 yards).

Dallas GEP 13:24 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
SLC I am already in USD/JPY long from a couple days ago from traded now @ 105.63. I have Another limit buy @ 105.25. MOF may not push price too far above 105.80/85 UNLESS dollar bulls help and then 106.00 will be pierced on the way up.

Juneau CAR 13:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dollar is in classic wedge with regard to euro. Which way does it break?

Bordeaux SLC 13:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: Do you have a limit sell order on the yen in case of MOF action and if so may I ask where? Thanks

I was thinking of placing mine around 105.70 to be safe...

Dallas GEP 13:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Very quick today as usual Jay!!!

Dallas GEP 12:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
MOF dance my be starting up soon.

GVI john 12:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2540…$/yen 105.35
DJIA -43 pts… 10-yr 4.09%, -2bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for report..

Aden PK 12:07 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago, cal, I wish you good luck but I must says there are sizeable bids around 1.2430-40 area and apparently will remain very bid prior to G7 meeting, so take care. I am not intending to annoy you but tjust mentioning here the market information what I have.

Helsinki iw 12:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Stops in CAD above triple top 1,3430/40. Fwiw

chicago cal 12:00 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
if eur/usd hits 1.2470 i'll short it for 1.2400ish

Aden PK 11:58 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Further, I heard that there is large option epiry at New York cut off time in Euro/Dlr strike 1.25 probably this will also bring Euro/Dlr down and may be drag Cable GBP/USd with it towards the down side. Good luck and good trades to every one.

Aden PK 11:52 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Similarly, a failure to break clearly 1.2560 resistance in Euro/Dlr will also fading momentum and apparently it should get support near 1.2475-80 the level though good size bids are awaiting around 1.2510 just ababove the Asia's low

Aden PK 11:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Chicago, your view can be right but I must say failure to move above 1.84 clearly will fade momentum further, and thus can bring cable down to 1.8270 which is 5 day moving average

saloniko 2004 nk..1.43 11:49 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

All the World is looking for 1.19/1.20 on Euro, all the World is Bull USD/CAD and GBP/CHF..


That means ALL the World will winn and me lose..cos still think the money is frome the other way..

Will be one of the little time..

[email protected][email protected]

chicago cal 11:47 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
however, if cable breaks below 1.8250; shorts will be in play we'll just have to wait and see what happens

chicago cal 11:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
cable is a good buy at 1.8440 for 1.8500ish

london cam 11:39 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
FRA 11:29 GMT February 4, 2004
I see your point. A rise in rate would seem illogical. However, two core issues the UK has to tackle is asset inflation and the level of consumer credit. These reasons support the majority of economists' views that BOE will raise rates tom.
FWIW I have a hunch that cable will drop after BOE announcement

Nottingham 11:33 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
FRA 11:29 GMT:

Consumer borrowing is out of hand and MPC nervous about bubble-like housing market...UK public needs to realise that there is consequence t taking on debt and that house prices don go up infinitely...problem is how to deflate gradually and not bankcrupt people in the process

london p 11:33 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
what do you see happpening tommorow then fra with a raise allmost a done deal .
i think the pound will rally into the news then sell of along with everything else in the run up to g7
markets are ranging because of interset rate descisions tomorrow i think

FRA 11:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Why would BOE raise rates with GBP at multiyear high, UK inflation at multiyear lows, UK real interest rates at multiyear highs and UK economy doing quiet well. To help people do carry trades ? GBP is best currency to buy to take advantage of interest rate differentials which works extremely well in trading range markets.

Gen dk 10:54 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn pm 10:52 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam - Re ECB - personally I think there is only an outside chance around 15-20% for a cut ..... could be an interesting G7 though if they did cut, as it would put strong pressure on the US to arrest the Usd decline.... in my humble opinion. I would add here I have no positions in fx - only write about it now....unfortunately.....having traded interbank for almost 20 yrs.

Melbourne Qindex 10:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 10:26 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

slv sam 10:20 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn pm 10:19 /
ya sorry i meant tom Thursday. What do you think pm?

Ldn pm 10:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 10:11 GMT
ECB announcement tomorrow 1245GMT

Tu ferry 10:15 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
@barcelona tony

do you still see EUR/USD coming down direction 1,1950?

slv sam 10:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I want to predict that ECB will cut rate today! so expect high volatility later today!GT

beijing road 10:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
ML: your EMA 50 works very well for eur and gbp now.

hk ab 0.88 09:58 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
See ya all NY.

Paint hasn't dried yet.

Nottingham 09:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
re cad...think it's no longer overbought and would now need to move above 1.35 to begin to be so...thus scope for upside/continuation of trend...caveat here is that 1.3425/35 is key resistance which has capped the pair for a couple of days, thus if not taken today probably means 1.30-1.32 (in next few days) if not the start of a new (downtrend) trend...gl gt

Texas(Jskn.) PNB 09:31 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Almost every stuff is moving in range.wonder when the magic level breaks on eur/usd on the downside-just food for thought.
TIA:-) u doing fine GEP?

Dallas GEP 09:30 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
PNB I was going to short from 1.3420 but my alarm didn't go off on it. I don't think it has much range but 1.3360 MAY be bottom or 1.3350.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 09:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I would however wait ccouple of hours before i get into the CAD short.any view GEP?

TIA:-)

Dallas GEP 09:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Looks like eur/aud and aud/cad have had most movement in ranges but I rarely trade them myself

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 09:26 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
None but USD/CAD IMHO has the potential for some movement.eur/usd,usdchf gave some pips,caddy yet to deliver.i agree GEP.How far do you expect the down movemnt though if caddy breaks downside here and what sl level are you using yourself?


TIA:-)

Dallas GEP 09:23 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
That 1.3410 area looks like a good short now on CADDY. Looks like we had some good size selling off 1.3408.

Antybody particulalry excited about ANY of these pais right now. I hace alarma set but NONE of them went off in the last 8 hours.

Dallas GEP 09:17 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
RE; JPY options, probabilities I think are fairly low for a 105.00, but I COULD it being much higher in regards to us seeing the 106.25 sometime in the next few days.

SA Bok 09:15 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
MACD hourlies EURUSD , GBPUSD looks offered even though price looks bid ... IMHO

Could be clue to USD bid tone today and be seen later

GL all

hk ab 0.88 09:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
maybe...

Ldn 09:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
LDN SAM sorry I dont.

LDN SAM 09:09 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08H54 & 08h59 : Any idea of the size of options expirg? Thx

Ldn 08:59 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
There seems to be a large option being protected at 1.2500 a plain-vanilla strike rolling off at today's NY cut 1500gmt

Ldn 08:54 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
105.00 barriers include a reverse knockout on a large and deeply ITM JPYcall option slated to expire tomorrow (Thursday). Large plain-vanilla 105.00 JPY call strikes also roll off at today's NY cut (1500gmt), and tomorrow. Vanilla 105.80 and 106.25 strikes additionally expire today.

SA Bok 08:48 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 08 - Honestly mate do your selve a favour dont trade the RAND off charts .. IMHO ... Its a demand and supply currency that moves quickly on small volume ... take care in trading it ....Been there done that got the tee shirt ... many times

hk ab 0.88 08:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
sma 10 and 18,20 are v. close now in daily for rand.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:43 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hk nt.
LOL, close only at 13036. exit 13050.. can not get 13000. LOL

hk ab 0.88 08:42 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:34 GMT February 4, 2004
hk ab 0.88 RBA will hike next month

certain?

Hm....

If what bc mentioned happened, I think the demand of aussie goods will have a dramatic "down". in the coming months. Let's see.


CT DB 08:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab
I believe that the Rand is currency that has to be traded based on fundementals, historically the Rand has been vulnerable to intervention, manipulation and poor political moves. The Rands strength is very closely linked to dollar weakness and is a bone of contention amongst exporters and the reserve bank policy.

SA Bok 08:29

Im inclined to agree with your assesment (expat does good)
STD Bank are talking 6.60 - but who really knows?

aimho of course

SA Bok 08:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Also story in FX week , SA Authorities running out of options to stop strength .. I know they should just buy USD but they dont .. also interest rates should be lower but again they dont seem keen to lower to much ...

SA Bok 08:37 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 08:30 - Beware yeild players ... also I hear exporters have plenty offers around as they missed the boat above 7 ... IMHO ...

Ldn 08:34 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 RBA will hike next month

hk ab 0.88 08:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
the dive of eur/gbp to .681x area is also alerting.

hk ab 0.88 08:31 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
things could be simple in this and next week.
RBA no hike means Japs can take back their bets earlier than expected.

from 60 area to 80 area....... in 2 years. (actually I think less than 2 years.)

hk ab 0.88 08:30 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I meant buy usd/rand.

SA Bok 08:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Cape Town DB - To me based on comeback and weak USD and people again looking for Interest rate plays ... I read somewhere no interest rate cuts this year ... = many sellers of USD and buyers of ZAR .. imho

hk ab 0.88 08:29 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
DB, chartwise.

Look at the daily and 4hr chart.

CT DB 08:25 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 07:50 GMT February 4, 2004
Rand looks likea good buy (bye) here.

Based on what?

hk ab 0.88 08:20 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
too many carry trades to unwind......

How far could this aud/jpy go?

After the bottom is found, I am interested in long aud heavy.

ICT ML 08:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
well now, the London opening moves have thrown me for a loop.....guess I'll wait to see what develops from here

Lancaster DH 08:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD and GBPUSD may cool down tonight.

Melbourne Qindex 07:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab 0.88 07:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Rand looks likea good buy (bye) here.

hk ab 0.88 07:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
athens, May I ask your view on dlr/cad today?

I think the pair might give us some little surprise.

Kevin, maybe we are not lucky enough to get the long at 1.31xx area.

vienna polly 07:40 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Is it time to see usdyen's rally??

Melbourne Qindex 07:36 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
London 07:34 GMT - I do not follow NZD/USD

London 07:34 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, NZD/USD up or down?

hk ab 0.88 07:32 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
the last post was refering to aud/nzd.

Melbourne Qindex 07:23 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:22 GMT February 4, 2004
EUR/USD : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is located at 1.2574 // 1.2604 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.2421 // 1.2451. The recent high in Asia session is 1.2559 which is the mid-point reference of 1.2543 - 1.2574.

... 1.2421 // 1.2451 - 1.2482 - (1.2512) - 1.2543 - 1.2574 // 1.2604 ... 1.2665 ...

Philippines newtrader 07:22 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
raden....
thanks...
till then . .. . . . . . .

beijing road 07:04 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
the day low of eur and gbp has been seen already?

Melbourne Qindex 06:57 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:51 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Philiphine new trader
you can contact [email protected] may Mr. Jay can help you. not polite if i write my e-mail here.

beijing road 06:51 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Heavily bought EUR/USD at 12530-40 level toaday and yesterday with stop at 12480, hope it will take out 12600.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:47 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hongkong Nt.
yes..sold at the first top at 13150 and still hold until second session. I will exit at 13000. I hope will get today.

Philippines newtrader 06:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
thank you very much raden for the info....by the way, how can i contact u thru messenger?as u told me.

hk ab 06:35 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
we have seen aud/seller short on news and expectation of aud not hike over the past week.

Now, I expect this pair to do some retracement and if a double bottom is formed, it will be a good move to 1.18-1.2.

Intersting thing is: will aud move up or nzd move down to generate this retracement? All will be informed on the 1.12 attack answer.

Miami OMIL 06:34 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Beijng Damang 06:16 GMT February 4, 2004

FWIW I have money on the long side of eur/usd. At this point the market may give false signals and breakouts. The market will decide after the G7 meeting IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

brisbane sunstate 06:25 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Beijng Damang 06:16
long term yes short term I think there is a risk of a pullback to 1.2420-50 but raden seems to be bullish and he is right more often than me, so who knows
gl gt

Nassau QF (newb) 06:25 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
It looks like EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in an uptrend.
They both penetrated 60 min SMA.

They're stalling now though.
Don't know if it's anything to worry about.

Hong Kong nt 06:24 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:50 -- sold Hang Seng at 13150/60?

Beijng Damang 06:16 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Do you all think eurusd in uptrend?

Tokyo Jon 06:13 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
the gbpjpy has been nice, letting me out of my short, just nicely. the tied is turning and once we clear 193.80 its a buy, however, full of confidence I am, I will be placing my buy order now for 193.60(bid) targeting 194.60

Melbourne Qindex 06:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : ... 1.2481 - 1.2506 - 1.2531 - 1.2556 ...

Ldn 06:09 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
BOJ normally hit the Yen just coming into Europe trading on the Asia close

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
philiphine newtrader
about usd/jpy..be carefull when at 104.67 maybe will up again from there.
also for gbp/usd 1.8491 maybe pullback form there.

To PDI :
hallo Bandung !! Panca = 5 ,dana = money ..
message from bang napi just now..."waspadalah..waspadalah !!" mean : be carefull !!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:54 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Philiphine New Trader.
better contact me on my messenger.
about eur/usd hope to 1.2644 (pullback) and if 1.2650 be shown let's hope to get 1.2737 (top extreme).
now is cheap level.

PANCA DI 05:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
PANCA DI 05:18 GMT February 4, 2004

GBP/USD daily top at 1.8519...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Philiphine Newtrader
hey.. sorry for my late reply.
good evening here.. LOL
little bussy here today with my selling of Hang Seng and Selling of Nikkei
okay.. I will see that chart maybe get something for you..

Ldn 05:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY saw downmove from 28-Jan"s high pausing within last 3 days of consolidation and this is slowly unfolding a bear-flag with slippage belo 79.85 to trigger another bearish leg towards 78.80 target
rtss.

Melbourne Qindex 05:34 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2482 - 1.2512 - 1.2543

Ldn 05:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Washington Post also picks up on story that letter sent to White House last November contained low-potency ricin; quotes law enforcement sources as saying matter was kept quiet, with Secret Service not even telling FBI, other agencies for while. Says letter signed "Fallen Angel" contained complaints about trucking regulations, was similar to one found late October at South Carolina mail-sorting facility. May be some criticism over level of secrecy over White House letter, but fact ricin was low potency suggests no major cause for alarm

Well my , what a sham

PANCA DI 05:18 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
hello !!

Buy gbp/usd target 1.8385 (minor) 1.8485(mayor)
Buy eur/usd target 1.2582 (minor) 1.2620/60(mayor)

support GBP/USD 1.8320-1.8289-1.8260*
support EUR/USD 1.2480

good luck !!

HK [email protected] 05:16 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Gold !!! Looks like the Cabals are back preparing to charge into the market. Possibly to crack today the 394$

Aden PK 04:53 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Euro/dlr probably holds 1.2490, buy 1.2510 stop 1.2480 for inital test of 1.2550/55 break of this level will take this upto 1,2600/10-20
GBP/USD probably hold the support level of 1.8340 for now, buy 1.8350 stop 1.8325 for initial test of 1.8420-30 which expected to hold today break of this level can take market upto 1.8465-75
Good luck and good trades.

Melbourne Qindex 04:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The level at 1.2481 - 1.2488 is going to be challenged later.

beijing road 04:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hope eur can hold 1.2500 level .

phils VL 04:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy - stll holding longs from y/day weighted avg at 40. wl TP on bounce if seen at btween 105.85 -106.05.

s/l sub 105, and market is most welcome to take it, before I close position with or witout profit going into g7. This will mean time-wise, BOJ has mis-calculated, if market is able to push below 105, b4 g7

Sydney2 04:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GER ad, thanks a lot.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 04:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
anyone sees a usd/cad short building up?
TIA:-)

Brissy JM 03:56 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras, HK 8888: Thanks, unfortunately I got stopped at 7668..... thats life!

GER ad 03:48 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 03:45
no change

Sydney2 03:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know the outcome of RBA's interest decision?

Philippines newtrader 03:28 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
good morning raden! thank you for your interesting forecast,
I want you to know that I always read your forecast every morning. Do you have studies for Euro and Yen today?

Miami OMIL 02:27 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Jon and if or when intervention happens the dollar should get a bigger push. Fib retracement (give or take some pips for correction)is at 1.2505, 1.2475 and 1.2450-45 IMHO. (/;->

melbourne farmacia 02:25 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Anyone thinking BOJ might try a push from 105.20 back @ 105.80 ?

singapore emperor 02:17 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hi Pilot, you bearish EURJPY >

Tokyo Jon 02:10 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL, with the system, it works realtime and response with the market. but my first level the system suggests is 1.2460

Philippines newtrader 02:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
good am my friend raden.. may i know whats your forecast for the day? Salamat po!

Tokyo Jon 02:07 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
going to take measle profit for the short gbpjpy at 193.30(bid), to close for the possible intervention.

Miami OMIL 02:06 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Jon do you have a target for the eur/usd short in mind? (/;-> tia

Tokyo Jon 01:50 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
according to the system, eurusd sold at 1.2532

Tokyo Jon 01:45 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
GEP, my gbpjpy is off to a nice start, and giving me some pleasure while I reinstall windows on one of the laptops, EURUSD is giving a sell signal with my directional indicator now in sell territory. I am ofcourse concerned with the threats of MOF. Watching the market closely.

So far I am only testing the system with eurusd and gbpjpy, but the results seem to be paying off for the many years of hard lessons and statistical development.

Singapore Pilot 01:42 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
daimler-chrysler increasing stake in mitsubishi motors... selling interest in the eur/yen becos of that

Dallas GEP 01:37 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Jon, what does that wonderful signaling system tell you presently????

Tokyo Jon 01:18 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:01, agree with MOF, expecting the annoucement that they are watching the market closely around 105.40, with verbals again around 105.30 and a yard or 2 being fired near 105.10. look at buying around low 105's for a quick pop to 105.80

GA TJ 01:16 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
I think my torid affair with the CAD for the past 2 weeks may be over I'm sad to say. It was a very nice run, easy pickins. Will not enter any more longs until 1.3440 is soundly penetrated. This is third time up at this level.

Dallas GEP 01:06 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, I wish I could tune it in at will but I can't LOL. I have mixed feelings on it really RE: Eur/USD . I will study it for a while and post back.

Gen dk 01:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ga Lee 01:03 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
eur/$-Nice little channel on the 4 hr with the 50/100 sma's..

Dallas GEP 01:01 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Andras, thing is I really don't have much patience. That's why I daytrade!!!! LOL

I am fairly certain however that we certainly will see BOJ in before FRIDAY.

Ldn 00:58 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
AUS ECON: Dec Retail Trade Eases, Q4 Points To Solid GDP Gain

Melbourne Qindex 00:49 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : ... 1.2481 - 1.2506 - 1.2531 ...

Pecs Andras 00:48 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:41 GMT February 4, 2004
The expectation was -0.1% and the range -1.8 to +1.0%, so the actual number -0.6 is a bit worse than exp.

Ldn 00:41 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
The Retail sale came in better than I expected especially after the hype of the Rugby World cup so the number of 0.6 is not bad not sure how low it will go on a sell

HK 8888 00:38 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
high bid this am was 0.7672
high paid was 0.7674
high in london last nite was 0.7675

Pecs Andras 00:37 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Brissy JM 00:33 GMT February 4, 2004
0,7670 on my platform

Brissy JM 00:33 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
does anybody have the high bid on AUD this morning? Thanks

Belgrade Knez 00:20 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   

Thanks Dennis.

AlexVA Dennis 00:19 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 00:00 GMT

Not GEP but that is correct.

Miami OMIL 00:11 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:05 GMT February 4, 2004
Sometimes things are not what they seem to be. Like my views for eur/usd going long and in reality it goes short (lol). (/;->

Ga Lee 00:08 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
No stage grander than politics..

Ldn 00:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
This Ricin affair , you have to ask yourself is it a put up job, strange it came about when Bush was pushing his defense budget through the roof and listening to the CNBC Press conference was pushing great job done so far protecting the nation and the White house.
All seems to be a bit of theatre

Miami OMIL 00:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone good to see Jon’s comments again. GEP (Jedi Master) what is you sixth sense telling you about eur/usd? FWIW I am looking at the eur/usd 1hr chart riding the 20ma and stochs are turning up giving me an idea that eur/usd is about to turn north again today to test 1.2620-25 area IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

melbourne farmacia 00:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
AB - flipped Aud long to short this morning. GT

Melbourne Qindex 00:05 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Belgrade Knez 00:00 GMT February 4, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

Hi mate,
Can you tell me is this correct working time of NYSE:
opening at 9:30
closing at 16:00
Thanks.

 




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