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Forex Forum Archive for 02/05/2004

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Shelbyville MKT 23:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas: What forex broker would you recommend. I ready to switch my account. Maybe email me, Jay did have my email on file. I owe you some candy. thanks

Pecs Andras 23:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:48 GMT February 5, 2004
Good morning Paul
I am short AUD again from 7655
You do not see much downside?

beirut jb 23:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP 10x :)

Dallas GEP 23:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
12,26

Melbourne Qindex 23:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

melbourne farmacia 23:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 23:09 GMT February 5, 2004
I should be happy now as i was expecting 0.7675 to print, but missed my limit short by 1 pip..... might see 0.7628 again before 0.7596. GT

beirut jb 23:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP
Dallas GEP 23:01

wich parameters r u using for MACD??

Melbourne Qindex 23:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:41 GMT February 5, 2004
GBP/USD : ... // 1.8268 - 1.8298 - 1.8328 - 1.8359* - 1.8389 // ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 23:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!
nice eur/usd at 1.2644 (bid) as a top.
have a nice you who see this number.Fresh money flow to you LOL.

Ldn 23:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   



.

Reuters
Treasuries slip as Bernanke upbeat on jobs, growth
(Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices slid on Thursday after a top Federal Reserve official jolted the market with upbeat jobs and growth forecasts.
After trading flat for much of the session, bonds flinched when Fed Board Governor Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy should expand by 4 percent or more in 2004.
Even more worrying for bond bulls obsessing over Friday's January payrolls report, Bernanke said he was "pretty confident" the nation would soon see big numbers on employment.
Bernanke's optimism left the market wondering whether the central bank might be tempted to begin hiking interest rates sooner than is generally expected.
"You're seeing some good selling here and it's all based on Bernanke's comments," said Andrew Brenner, head of fixed income at Investec, Ernst & Co.
A jump in first-time jobless claims reported earlier put a floor on prices, heartening those worried that January payrolls would finally bring the burst of job creation that has so far eluded this economic recovery.
Jobless claims rose to 356,000 last week from a revised 339,000 the previous week, a surprise to analysts who had looked for a slight dip, offering some support to bonds.
Still, economists were sticking to their forecasts of around 150,000 new jobs in January after December's meager 1,000 addition to payrolls. Any surprises in either direction might wreak havoc on the market.
People are nervous," Brenner said. "You could get some really violent moves tomorrow."
Accustomed to surprises from the monthly employment figures, traders usually prefer not to make any drastic moves ahead of such data.But Bernanke's statements were tough to ignore, prompting a sell-off that left the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR) 13/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.17 percent from 4.12 percent late on Wednesday.
A Bloomberg story that was later retracted generated some confusion in the market when it suggested Bernanke had placed a specific time frame -- six months -- on the Fed's promise to be patient in removing policy accommodation.
Thirty-year bonds (US30YT=RR) lost 13/32, taking their yield to 4.99 percent from 4.96 percent.
Two-year notes (US2YT=RR) lost 4/32, leaving yields at 1.84 percent from 1.76 percent, while the five-year (US5YT=RR) lost 10/32 to yield 3.18 percent from 3.12 percent.
Treasuries had suffered in sympathy with euro zone debt after the Bank of England hiked interest rates 25 basis points to 4.0 percent.
Slower productivity could mean companies are closer to squeezing all they can out of their current work force and need to hire more. Anything that remotely supports the jobs outlook is seen bringing forward the day when the Fed might raise interest rates.


Melbourne Qindex 23:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 23:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD triple top between 0.7670/75 is a warning of
another dip any views on this scenario cheers

Ldn 23:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd erased its gain 02-05-04

The mkt seems to have used Bernake"s comments to unwind Usd shorts ahead of G7, though he said weak Usd helps exports and c/a deficits that is 5% of GDP is not sustainable, so the EUD/USD erased most of its gains. German name and Eur/Jpy & Eur/Chf led rally via the previous high of 1.2562 and 1.2600 offers were the highlight of the European session amidst Trichet"s unimpressive comments, but the rumor of c/bks" offers fueled unwinding for the rest of the session. Roughly it seems the pair"s ability to hold around 1.2500-1.2490 (Feb 04 low of 1.2492) would keep the upward scenario, though gold sluggishness looks a bit negative to the single currency.reutersnewsire

Dallas GEP 23:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Watch the MACD on CADDY, it is the more accurate of the indicators in regards to forecasting it's movements/

Dallas GEP 23:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Watch the MACD on CADDY, it is the more accurate of the indicators in regards to forecasting it's movements/

Dallas GEP 22:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
JON, I am not to sure how much gbp/usd is going to help you on going long with gbp/jpy because It may very well short itself. I am pretty sure we will see 106.00+ usd/jpy tonight though and that will help.

Tokyo Jon 22:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
morning all, what a dissappointment with my trade last night. It looks like it sat next to my S/R for a few hours, and then finally, giving way, reversing nicely, to be hit be MOF.

This has now put me into a bullish perspective, but waiting for the dust to settle.

Dallas GEP 22:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ML, the significance of this 105.70 level is this is the place where the MOF at least temprarily drew a line earlier and was defending it against shorters. THEN the piped it up to two higher levels before letting it now pip back down to this level. I beleive this may be the base level they wish to hold at this time but you know the MOF, it's like trying to find a corner in a round room.

GVI john 22:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2550…. $/yen 105.75
DJIA 10,496, +25 pts…NASDAQ 2,020, +5 pts
10-yr 4.18%, +5 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for more

ICT ML 22:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, there is another rising $Y intervention channel formed on hourly chart.....the bottom line is a good place to but limit buys IMHO.....don't know what would be significant about this level though...you know more about this pair than me though....

Dallas GEP 22:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
If BOJ is paying attention here, USD/JPY should bounce up from 105.70 area. WTH knows???

BEIRUT MK 22:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2475 is OK for me , else nothing to lose

thank you.

Nassau QF (newb) 22:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Stochs on 1 hour charts are starting to point up on Eur/Usd
I'm hoping that's a good sign.

BEIRUT MK 22:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
move stop loss on short usdchf at cost 1.2513

thank you.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 22:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
well theyre good for intraday , there s no othe r way
euro must go down, lets wirte down time and price and find out tomm
unless something happens, besides on cnn they said today job report 300k / january

gl gt

Porto Azarento 21:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Nassau if you are glad im glad too. lets close around 1.256x.

Melbourne Qindex 21:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 21:52 GMT - I have a feeling that position traders areaccumulating short positions.

Dallas GEP 21:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Didn't NY close about an hour ago????

Nassau QF (newb) 21:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Aren't 5 minute charts way to small a timeline?

Nassau QF (newb) 21:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm long EUR/USD also.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 21:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
porto i think quidex ir right euro is short emas crossed on 5min
change of trend

Melbourne Qindex 21:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still a good reference in the Asia Session :-

Melbourne Qindex 05:29 GMT February 5, 2004
EUR/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.2514. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2391 // 1.2422 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2637 // 1.2668. the odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 1.2391 // 1.2422 ... 1.2484 - 1.2514* - 1.2545 ... 1.2637 // 1.2668 ...

Porto Azarento 21:45 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
time to open long.
buy eurusd 1.2544

Ldn 21:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD dropped in line with Eur/Usd to current 0.7620 with many prop players sucked into longs on the false break above 0.7660.The major flow in the headline is still Aud/Nzd which is hitting levels under 1.1100. Major support at 1.1050-70 is drawing tech based accounts to buy, but a break opens the prospect of 1.0700. Aud/Usd stops seen below 0.7600, s/t sell rallies
MMs

Wiarton H 21:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 20:52 GMT February 5, 2004
FIB retrace target?

WASH DC SRQ 21:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GL mate.
TIA:-)

Nassau QF (newb) 21:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Looks like a reversal doji on EUR/USD 1 hour chart.

BEIRUT MK 21:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
SRQ, if usdchf would break 1.2525
it should load from lower levels,
anyways, it is a risky trade with small
loss i could pay from my today profit.


thank you.

WASH DC SRQ 20:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
short usd/chf.playing contra beirut or what?
TIA:-)

BEIRUT MK 20:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
short usdchf at 1.2513 stop 1.2530 target 1.2465

thank you.

New York Lev 20:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Seems no activity on jpy/usd field right now. If the BoJ is going to intervene again, IMHO it will do it after 7:00 PM EST, when the Japanese markets open. Any ideas or thoughts?

Dallas GEP 20:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Now that usd/jpy is resting, usd.cad has been going back long.

Dallas GEP 20:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Sid, once those stops start getting hit (if they do), the longing will accelerate due to the BUY stop orders on those short possies.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 20:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
was and am long usdchf but have a feeling usdchf up shall be some good points from here...

any views anyone,Q??
TIA:-)

LA Sid 20:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, hopefully they got a big apetite as plenty to eat above 106.15..........gl

LAX-LGB SNP 20:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP - no denying that its everyone's favourite CB @ work

on a side note, the mkt is still undecided about further gains since EURUSD is unable to close atop 1.257x ... or below 1.246x for losses - expecting the mkt to stay within these two till the G7 blows over. If we break lower, then 1.234x is not going to sustain another hit

Dallas GEP 20:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Sid I explained that scenario earlier but I beleive BOJ will drive USD/JPY long enough to eat up all the stops on these shorts.

LA SID 20:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:27 GMT February 5, 2004
Added more long USD/JPY here @ 105.90 (ask)

Ok, I'll (ask).......why?

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
SNP, great info but I think it is pretty clear this was and will continue to be BOJ's effort.

New York Lev 20:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Is it time to buy euro? the rate seems to be stabilizing adn bears should start taking profits. Am i right?

LAX-LGB SNP 20:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BoJ in action or ...
Japanese lawmakers are clearing the way for economic sanctions against North Korea, which could include an end to remittances and trade. The threat gives Tokyo leverage on the issue of abducted Japanese and the nuclear threat. Pyongyang says sanctions would amount to a declaration of WAR (!) and warns that Japan will reap what it sows (AsiaTimes)

Dallas GEP 20:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Added more long USD/JPY here @ 105.90 (ask)

london cam 20:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
k'la kl 20:11 GMT February 5, 2004
I'm sure most of us here (me included) have experienced aching positions in the past. GBPUSD fell so much - because it did - . Will it rise shortly? who knows, but many here will have views on it.

FWIW it is well worth having a plan (part of which should include your maximum acceptable loss) in place before entering any position and acting on it. It's not easy, but if you stick to your plan, you'll be around to trade another day.
GL, GT

GER ad 20:19 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
New York Lev 19:59,
EUR/USD yesterday close was 1.2535 (practical no change)
24 hours of stop hunting and profit taking. If you want you can find justifications for the movements: BOE rate hike, Trichet, Bernanke... but was nothing new (not expected). The USD look for the moment a little stronger because USD/JPY (For how long? Not clear). GT & GL

Livingston nh 20:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham - I think the President is the only one who gets Employment stats early (the night before) - the Fed may have early call on its own data (industrial production, cap utiliz, consumer credit and such)

OK SZ 20:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
possible...it should be an interesting morning...gl, gt

NYC NYC 20:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Bernanke said "fairly soon." Fed officials are careful not to leak data so assume he was talking about a longer timeframe than one day. IMHO

k'la kl 20:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys,
Thanks for your comments you keep posting BUT can anyone
plz tell me as to why GBPUSD fell so much i have an aching position.
Help & Thanks
LKH

Nottingham 20:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 20:02 GMT:

Since Fed officials are supposed to get data 24-48 hrs in advance, you would think Bernanke has had a sneek peek, otherwise his comments today will look rather follish tomorrow if payrolls disappoint (again)...yesterdays ISM employment index was down and that doesn't fill me with much confidence...I expect last month's payrolls might be revised higher but I won't be surprised if payrolls come in +50k or even less...gl gt

Dallas GEP 20:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Good Question!!!! Depends on how far they want to drive it 106.27 seems reasonable. Picked up a good amount of sellers @ 106.00 for sure. It will get progressively harder for them the higher they go UNLESS they take out the stops on the sell orders and I think they may do that.

OK SZ 20:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
all about expectations on jobs data tomorrow and benvernackes remarks

LAX-LGB SNP 20:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Lev - BoJ @ work in thin conditions

New York Lev 19:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone explain what is going on with eur/usd? I do not fully understand why it usd would go high this much.

la saint3 19:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gep ....
where do you think usd/jpy will hit?
Thanks

Dallas GEP 19:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Now MOF will let additional sellers come in and PROBABLY will uptick the level once again to get a new level of sellers in and then when most are in, they may drive it longer so as to take out some of the stops. All conjecture of course!!!

Porto PJT 19:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy 19:35 , same boat but at higher level, gl to us.

Stockholm za 19:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY...... at the moment.....
8576-8545
8514-8504
8464
8423-8414
8383-8352
Key ~8437
Happy trades.....

OK SZ 19:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
cool..coming your way,thanks

USA Biscuit Boy 19:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
SZ its my handle at zappo.com.

OK SZ 19:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy, need your email address again..need to ask a question

USA Biscuit Boy 19:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
And sold kiwi at 0.6849. Didn't know they could fly hehehe.

Nassau QF (newb) 19:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I think the only thing that will force the US to adopt a strong dollar policy is inflation, if they see it.

The weak dollar has been too beneficial for the States for them to change it otherwise.

Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy @ 105.78. This is strictly based on the scenario I described (105.72 line in sand) AGGRESSIVE play.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:32 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Looks like I missed all the action. More euro shorts filled at 1.2579 and 1.2630. Nice to see some volatility again :)

boulder dat 19:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
some of Bernanke's comments to cement the idea of a long-term sell-off in the dollar.

Fed's Bernanke - Weak dollar not an inflation risk

Fed's Bernanke-US current acct gap not sustainable

Pecs Andras 19:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Hawk
I will do that

Dallas GEP 19:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Seems to me the MOF has drawn the line now around 105.72. Whether that is temp just for now I dunno. May still be a push up to take out these shorters, It wouldn't surprise me at all.

Moscow Hawk 19:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Andras, yes. At least keep part of your possie and add below 0.7600. There is a good chance you will ride the big wave. Move below 0.7600 will give confirmation.

Wash DC Tempus 19:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
think market players should be very careful shorting the US$ over the next few days. Mkt seems ripe for major correction. We all know that the improved jobs picture is right around teh corner. When non-farm payrolls start to register 150,000+, thsi euro will sink like a stone. Granted there is little agrrement on US$ direction, with Europe and Asia wanting a stronger buck and the US not so sure....
Think very dangerous markets to be involved in spot positiosn over next few days (or until Monday/Tuesday) next week. If you belive payrolls will be poor and G7 will fail to alter US$ policy then one should buy short-dated eur calls.
I favor a stronger US$ and have been engaing in a put related strategy vs. euro and yen. Simple but very unlikley o get caught up in expecetd volatility over next few days.

Watch for US$ turn I think we are upon it.....
Still targeting 1.1700-1.2000 by mid-April

Pecs Andras 19:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
HAWK
You think I should hang on to this trade.
I meant it only for a few pips.

LAX-LGB SNP 19:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
:-) patience and averages finally working out ... i feel better already

Moscow Hawk 19:08 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Andras, it could be much better soon. Below 0.7600 I expect waterfall in the pair. Target - 0.7440. Good trades.

Pecs Andras 19:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Whatever is going on here?
Anyway, my AUD short looks OK.

BEIRUT MK 18:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
short gbpusd at 1.8350 target 1.8170

thank you.

Dallas GEP 18:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I would NOT assume that the MOF is thru, THey may wish to take out the shorters at this 105.80 area ae well. If they decide to go this route, expect 106.30 to print but guessing what the MOF may do is normally DIFFICULT at best.

New York Lev 18:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Anybody has support for eur/usd to be cracked?

Moscow Hawk 18:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
should be

....and we have not to see EUR/JPY above 133.50.

boulder dat 18:53 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
seems Bernanke has given us another great dollar selling opportunity for today. not sure that we will see moves too much higher for today. but, these would be good levels to start positioning for tomorrow. we have unemployment coming out tomorrow. anything negative in the report tomorrow could sink the dollar.

Miami OMIL 18:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Out for some lunch for a while I believe some stops have been taken out on eur/usd that is why the lower move IMHO. (/;->

LA 7 18:45 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Is there any news out???

Van jv 18:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Bernake's comment on Inflation Risk confirms validity of concerns expressed by Morgan Stanley...see 16:21....would not be surprised to see Fed raising Rates in June...

Dallas GEP 18:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
CADDY long 1.3380

Dallas GEP 18:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
MOF in

Moscow Hawk 18:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD tested 1.2630-65 as expected and the zone has limited upside. Now it formed a perfect technical pattern on dailies. As I pointed yesterday while 1.2600-65 limits the upside I favour downside break of the range. Frankly speaking I think it is reversal pattern. To confirm the scenario I described earlier we need to see move below 1.25 in EUR/USD and we have not see EUR/USD above 133.50.

Good luck

New York Lev 18:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
How much more the Cad will go up? Any Ideas?

Dallas GEP 18:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I am RE: usd/cad

Dallas GEP 18:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Wooooo... that is a huge buy candle. that be a big boy me thinks. Sellers should come in now

Dallas GEP 18:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Andra. YES it is. Someone else is buying I suppose!!!!! Looking tho for possible short opp.

Miami OMIL 18:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
On the 15 min chart GEP you have the 50ma holding court right now and just below is the 100 ma at around 1.2565-60 area we will see what happens. (/;->

Nottingham 18:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham ds 18:14:

Ah another one of Robin Hood's merry men!!! :o) Nothing on my radar at present, but I tend to trade contra so no surprise really...gl gt

BEIRUT MK 18:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
close long eurusd from 1.2535 at 1.2625
wait to buy at 1.2450 or a break of 1.2665

thank you.

Miami OMIL 18:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP if it does not hold I will be selling eur/usd around 1.2550-40 area if everything looks good at the time. (/;->

Pecs Andras 18:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Is Caddy surging without you in?

Dallas GEP 18:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hey Arty, think this 1,2580 will hold???????

Miami OMIL 18:19 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
SNP, that is a scary picture LOL. (/;->

Dallas GEP 18:19 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ROLLBAR!!!!

Dallas GEP 18:18 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I agree with that Shelby. I think I am going to check on my son's car. They are putting a 10 point rollbat in it.

CADDY sure got long BTW!!!!!

Bucharest Razvan 18:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Bucharest dc

I got no mail from you.. Sure you sent it?

LAX-LGB SNP 18:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
OMIL yea man - the mkt's always gonna be there
saving grace is we lost less than we made this week and GEP's analogy of wearing milkbone underwear too ;-) haha

Nottingham ds 18:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
new to the forum - anyone trading EuroUSD

Shelbyville MKT 18:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas: It's time for lunch and a little break from all the markets.

Miami OMIL 18:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
It has not been the best week for trading SNP that is probably why the market has been so thin. If you were able to squeeze any pips out of the market you are either lucky or a miracle so don’t feel bad about it you will get it back. The R/R does not sound bad either lol. (/;->

hk ab 0.88 18:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt,

n.z.d. = nazdaq bubble....

runs like cad.

soon enough, RBNZ needs to face their problems......

Dallas GEP 18:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ARTY, I am devoid of news feeds today!!!!

LAX-LGB SNP 18:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 03:59 GMT February 5, 2004
little worked out excepting usdcad and gbpchf - now i finally have a reason to gonna go away this w/e and re-orient my head :-)

Hong Kong nt 18:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- i'm not brave enough to sell the strongest NZD, my favorite is selling chf at 1.2350/00, the next stop for NZD to taking a longer rest must be somewhere within 7000-7150...

LA ARTOFYEN 18:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
No MOF, Dallas........Mr "dove" Bernake speaking about inflation risks and that was all we needed to finalaly crack 1.2595-00 in euro....Now a move below 1.2560 would catch the next lot!!

Miami OMIL 18:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
If we have see the high for eur/usd then here are the fib retracement rough figures 1.2575-70, 1.2535-30, 1.2600-1.2595 and 1.2465-60. (/;->

hk ab 0.88 18:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I will exit the eur/chf at 1.5665 for a day run 32 pips first.

Dallas GEP 17:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Quite frankly, I can't tell My charts just CRASHED!!!!

Dallas GEP 17:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
WOW , a good dip on Euro!!! Maybe MOF bounce?????

Nassau QF (newb) 17:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Well, it looks like EUR/USD 1 hour SMA is getting broken on the downside.

sarasota jf 17:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
bernake comment

london p 17:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
isnt snow or someone talking about now anyone know

Dallas GEP 17:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OMIL. Yeah, you are correct my friend, it doesn't take long to make things right!!!!

Miami OMIL 17:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP don’t be so hard on your self. The way you play the market you can make up for it fast. (/;->

Miami OMIL 17:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF (newb) 17:41 GMT February 5, 2004
That is a good idea the market will tell us soon what course of action we must take IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 17:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
No Shelby, I am just a little miffed I miscalculated that eur/usd stop from earlier. Had it @ 1.2634 and it needed to be at 1.2641, should have known better and it's not like I didn't have the equity to hold it either. That was just flat STUPID!!!! Then I get out of the GBP/JPY long at BE that is 15 pips UP now. So nothing more than a few tactical errors, and my tolerance for my own mistakes is just about ZERO.

WHEW!!! Feel better now, pass the M&M's!!!!

Miami OMIL 17:45 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
london p 17:40 GMT February 5, 2004
We are on the same page but with the intervention looming in the air I don’t know if the market is ready to go against BOE in the near future. Like I said before these are going to be very turbulent times coming up. (/;->

Nassau QF (newb) 17:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Daily EUR/USD stochs are pointing up at a pretty high angle.
I already closed my long position though and don't want to open a new one until I get a really good sign.
I hate giving back profits.

london p 17:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
miami omil i make the top of the pennant roughly 2650 slightly under is this what you have on the euro
markets looks to be firming ready for an attack on this
gbp getting back its strength

)toronto( cntower 17:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
since the euro's moving daily aver about 117 pipos for the last year, 90 is fine with me

Miami OMIL 17:32 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
On eur/usd if the daily pennant is broken we could see (rough estimates) 1.3100-1.3160 for the mid term view on this pair IMHO. (/;->

Shelbyville MKT 17:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas: Maybe it's time for a little M & M's. You sound up tight.

SanFrancisco tg 17:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Just a sample of many micro effects I'm watching which run counter to the list of negative economic signs for the US and Japan.

Japan's Canon Inc. net profit rose 45 percent in 2003 on healthy demand for office copiers and booming digital cameras sales, and forecast its fifth straight record profit for 2004 (holds 20 percent of the global digital market roughly even with Sony for top seed).

Japan's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell tto 4.9% in December, core consumer prices were flat from y/y.

Foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks in the week ended Jan. 23 on the Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya bourses, for the sixth straight week of net buying, the Tokyo bourse said Thursday. Foreigners bought a net Y494.90 billion in the week, much higher than net purchases of Y127.89 billion in the previous week.

Japan's index of leading economic indicators in December hit 70.0, well above the break even mark of 50.0 and well above the expected figure of 60.0..

Japan is very arguably the leading economic partner and/or financier of the US (and visa/versa) even though the trade volume of the EU is greater by default due to size.

Dallas GEP 17:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
It looks to me RIGHT now that eur/usd is a buy on dips back to 1.2600 but I don't know for how long.

Dallas GEP 17:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Look at the 1 hour eur/usd chart and tell me that is not a mixed bag of nuts. STOCHS are down and going down yet prove still stays up. MACD is rising

Dallas GEP 17:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Viewer, GBP/JPY is the most confusing pair you can work it. It defies logic, Charts show SHORT but it CAN go long as it is dong now right after I close at BE!!!!.

Newcastle GH 17:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dr Unken Kat

I have used similar methods before. Do you use a stop loss of 90 pips from the cross and hold that stop for the entire trade?

Do you exit on a final cross of the two for profit?

Dallas GEP 17:18 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I am out at BE on the LONG GBP/JPY I think it will short as well.

Nassau QF (newb) 17:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm waiting for it to fall through the 60 minute SMA before going short on EUR/USD.

Ldn Viewer 17:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon - That stop is only 2 spreads away from entry , and could be hit and then we see higher ..very close and you call it bid and then say favour lower confusing or just covering all bases .. I know you are off to bed but maybe could answer in morning so I can live and learn ...

To me GBP yeild will see it bid as well as more Asian CB's buy it ...

Miami OMIL 17:12 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hope everyone came out all right from last eur/usd move. The triangle that I was talking about was broken to the upside as I suspected but I still show room for a move higher to the 1.2650-60 area where the other daily pennant waits to be broken or rejected that will dictate if the $$$ correction is still alive IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 17:08 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
yes its EST , I cant figure the GMT
im too dumb i guess

london cam 17:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:44 GMT February 5, 2004
I was tring to figure out your signal and realised you're quoting 2:40hrs EST ie 5 hours behind GMT. Is that correct?
GL GT

Shelbyville MKT 16:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: Neutral option spread on the eur/usd. sell a 1.30 call and a 1.22 put for 1,075.00 per spread. The position will be profitable as long as the eur/usd stays between these strikes. Option expires 2/13.

bahdad Dr Unken Kat 16:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
some say buy stox in the year preceding the presidential erections

SanFrancisco tg 16:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I find it impossible to take Morgan Stanley or the BBC seriously anymore, same agenda. If I listened to Morgan Stanley's propoganda in the beginning of 2003 I would have sold stocks and done nothing else due to the "double dip recession" being trumpeted that never happened.

Tokyo Jon 16:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sorry, forgot to add, night all

Tokyo Jon 16:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Same spread same wild horses, but what concerns me is the bump and run forming on gbpjpy 1 hour. well all orders and stops in place, will see in the morning, but for me favoring the downside

slv sam 16:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
buying euro at 1.2605 filled! now fully loaded. will start to take profit from 1.2740.GT

Dallas GEP 16:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Correction: 194.01, This ride takes alot of coupons!!!!

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Jon, I like your long GBP/JPY possie LONG. I am in long from 194.00 (have 10 pip spread). Let's ride the wild horse.

Disclaimer: This is a WILD buckimg horse and can hurt you badly so proceed with caution!!! LOL

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
no good , euro gave long signal 2 40 am last nite
next time take 5min chart set EMA 50&200 , wait for the cross if after the cross 50 goes up its your long signal , if down its short , quite simple , limit 90 pipos from the cross
gl,gt

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 16:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Anybody has an idea how many pips up/down EUR can possibly move after G7 right after market opens at Sunday?

london cam 16:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon . Thks.
I've avoided this pair due to the high spread!
GL GT

Tokyo Jon 16:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sorry London cam was away, targeting 194.80, with stop and reverse 193.80 targeting 193.40

ICT ML 16:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone know the IMM spec open interests for cable and euro going into this weekwnd?

london cam 16:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 16:10 GMT February 5, 2004

Interesting position. What target and timeframe are you looking at?

Dallas GEP 16:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
No Dr. Kat, I didn't I made +25 pips on it which I guess more or less offsets te 36 pips I lost on my short this morning so I am -11 pips on the old euro meter I suppose!!! LOL

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gep did u keep ur eurp longs ? from yday?

Van jv 16:21 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Morgan Stanley
The Fed commitment to keeping interest rates low for ‘a considerable period of time’ fueled speculation in high-risk assets. The byproducts of this speculation are the wealth effect on consumption in the US and the cheap capital-fueled investment boom in China — the twin engines or bubbles, depending on your perspective, for the global economy today.

The cycle will end with either the Fed reversing its policy — we saw a glimpse of this in its decision last week — or a financial accident from the high leverage that has been built up in high-risk assets everywhere in the world. History would not be kind to the Fed; its accommodation and even encouragement of speculative excesses would be viewed as the primary cause of the massive bubble in the global economy today, the consequences of which are yet to show

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
That's good Shelby because I am a package shy after that eur/usd short (LOL)!!!!

Stategy (Very agressive):

Prior to platform close on Friday, you COULD open up TWO positions: One a eur/usd LONG with a 20 pip stop and two a usd/chf LONG with same 20 pip stop. NOTE: this will NOT work if your platform will not honor your stops if we gap over the weekend.

I beleive the G7 meeting WILL cause a gap in the market come opening on Sunday and so whatever way it goes your either IN long eur/usd (dollar negative) or IN long USD/CHF (dollar positive).

This IS very aggresive and DO NOT do it if your platform will not get you out at your stop price should we gap. MOST platforms will fill you at market and NOT your stop so check FIRST with them before doing this.

Tokyo Jon 16:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
After closing gbpjpy earlier at 194.10, its time to reload, direction is good and steady momentum indications. buying at now at 194.00

Sydney alimin 16:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, i agree with you too, have to wait a bit more

Shelbyville MKT 16:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hey Dallas; with the money I made in beans today. I could buy M & M's for everybody

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Alim, no I am still mixed about it. It did got hru the fib level around 1.2610 pretty easily but I think is has a good chance of longing up again

Sofiq Red 16:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Now the post-FOMC gapses are filled, but the possibility of a still forming descending/ascending triangle in the conties is still intact.

PAR 16:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BOE has been raising rates to offset high UK political risk of holding sterling. UK interest rates reflect more than 2% risk premium.

Warsaw Black Magic 15:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
something is wrong....
it drops about 30 pips...and i dont see any real buyers ...no correction ...hmmm

Porto PJT 15:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have any info why kiwi is helding so well ?

Sydney alimin 15:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, will you be convinced now with euro/usd short?

Warsaw Black Magic 15:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Some of us are afraid of g7 ...some not
stange movements

sarasota jf 15:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gbpusd some new stops at 10-15 maybe one blip up before next run down - gbpyen needs to overcome 194.30 level to inspire fresh gbp confidence

Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
The dollar is just like Jason in those ignorant Halloween movies, you think you have killed him but he always just keeps coming back!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 15:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Alim, Looks like MOF may have blipped usd/jpy up @ 105.37. Since Eur/USD may bounce UP from 1.2610 area, I will wait and see for now.

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Well friends, it seems I miscalculated my stop point on my EUR/USD short. I had 1.2634 and it SHOULD have been 1.2641.

Sydney alimin 15:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, dont forget euro/usd :) it is coming down

Porto PJT 15:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Shelbyville , hope you have a good rest from markets.Happy to see you back.Good trades.

Warsaw Black Magic 15:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
it looks that $ is still alive ?

WTF ?

Dallas GEP 15:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Does Shelbyville have those M&M's sprinkled all over the ground on the snow????

B.A. BOCA 15:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Selling $ into the G7 proved to be a good strategy...time to hold and place stops for tomorrow.

GL


B.A. BOCA 13:53 GMT January 30, 2004
got to love a market that leans hard one way....easy money done, off before mistakes begin to creep in.

by the way, these should be dream levels for those wanting to buy $ into the g7. personally, i'm positioned the other way..
GL

B.A. BOCA 16:15 GMT January 29, 2004
good, predictable moves for a change today! cash in hand never hurt

still looking to pick up some $ shorts for next week...GL

B.A. BOCA 20:34 GMT January 28, 2004
would be looking to sell usd going into next week.....and g7. if the dollar strengthens signifacntly before meeting, would make currency discussions a mute point..

Shelbyville MKT 15:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
It's a beautiful day here in shelbyville with snow and sleet on the ground and sand trucks passing the office spreading there loads. grains are paying me good today

HK Kevin 15:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT, exactly as what you predicted. Re-test 1.3330, now see what is next, trailing stop in place.

Dallas GEP 15:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Yeah ML. that gbp/jpy sometimes is like running into a pack of wild hungry dogs while wearing milk bone underwear.

NICE GBP/JPY trade BTW!!!!

FW CS 15:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Shelbyville
Cold as usual here 21 degrees F. I imagine its about that cold there as I am not too far from you.

ICT ML 15:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
jon..I entered earlier today after rate hike spike pulled back and target is 195 for start...trend line on hourlies...but this damnn pair sometimes burns me badly

HK Kevin 15:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Closed my long EUR at 1.2626.

Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe Alim!!!!

slv sam 15:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
had to buy at 1.2622 as 1.2605 looks wishful thinking!GT

Tokyo Jon 15:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, Good to see another gbpjpy trader, when did you enter, and what is your target.

Dallas GEP 15:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, you see what I mean about that crazy CADDY????

Sydney alimin 15:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
getting ready for another shot at shorting eur/usd GEP?

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Yeah ML, I think I will time another short on EUR?USD when we get down (if we do) to 105.30 on USD/JPY. That should be good for 30 pips anyway.

ICT ML 15:19 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP...bring on the MOF!......need a boost in my long GBP/JPY possie( whic I hope to be keeping for about 500 pips or do)

slv sam 15:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
shall buy more euro if i see 1.2605.GT

Chambery FR JFB 15:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 15:10 GMT February 5, 2004
OK... seems we are talking of the same line then... happily :-)

Dallas GEP 15:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Razvan, Thanks, new motor going in. 1/4 times, high 8's, 60 foot times 1.32 seconds, best 1/4 mile mph this far 148 MPH.

On a currency note, MOF watching hour!!!!

ICT ML 15:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
JFB...its the 1/12 to 1/23 on hourly...could be off a smidge on my lines...you know....LOL

Chambery FR JFB 15:08 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 15:05 GMT February 5, 2004
JFB...I have same for the 1.8460 TL area...so I think it is a good trade

Thx, but where does this 1.8460 t/l come from!!? :-) Mine is at 1.8447 bid right now... :-)

GT GL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
better exit your buy eur/usd at 1.2644, because i am worry price move down from there, but if you want to buy again better wait and see for a while.

Bucharest Razvan 15:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
London p

I'm a little worried about that trendline too.. I think there'll almost certainly be a bounce from it, and a retest of that level.. we'll see what happens there..

GEP: I read your post yesterday about your son and Hot Rod. I wish you both the BEST of luck!!! Let'em see nothing but his rear bumper! :) Can you share with other automotive freaks traders such as myself the bhp, 0-60 and quarter mile?

Dallas GEP 15:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Well I am out on this round on SHORT Eur/USD. FIBS simply did not hold.

hk ab 0.88 15:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, that eur/chf pain should be ok today.

ICT ML 15:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
JFB...I have same for the 1.8460 TL area...so I think it is a good trade

Toronto 15:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Jan Ivey PMI 53.8 v. 58.5 in dec

Chambery FR JFB 15:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi ML :-) I have a long GBP, t/p 1.8445... Does it look like a viable target to you? TIA

bucharest dc 15:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
razvan, I sent you a mail

Bucharest Razvan 15:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
longs.. i meant longs.. LOL

Bucharest Razvan 15:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
heh.. what can I say? sitting on those sub 1.24 shorts from friday and adding (a little, of course.. G7 looms) is quite entertaining.. :)

london p 15:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
euros down trend line coming in at 2650 on same time frame

Dallas GEP 14:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I agree Kevin. If anything I would establish a dollar bullish position just prior to close but that is very risky if your platform will not honor stops.

ICT ML 14:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
London p....the more eyes that see it the merrier mate! interesting to see what happens from here though...

beijing road 14:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trail stop of eur long to 12490.

london p 14:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ooops sorry ml looks like were looking at the same things but youve got a quicker finger on the trigger
respect

slv sam 14:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
if we trade 1.27 level this week then expect a challange to 1.2899 next week.GT

london p 14:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
usd chf sitting on an uptrend line on the hourly 20 days

hk ab 0.88 14:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ic.

Dallas GEP 14:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Raised stop by 5 pips but it looks bullish

jkt-aye 14:53 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
unchanged (but not sure) Mas

ICT ML 14:53 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
$swiss about to break out the bottom of its uptrend line on hourlies...fwiw 1.2405 goes the stops at 1.2375 are targets...

HK Kevin 14:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:40 GMT, we trade at different time frame. Let's both win.
The biggest question for trader who are long EUR is would you hold your position for the G7 meeting. I won't.

Ldn 14:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
risks which may impact foreign exchange rates ahead of the
weekend G7 meeting in Florida include: [USD] Fed Governor Bernanke's South
Carolina speech on monetary policy, which is slated for 1745gmt today;
tomorrow's 1330gmt release of January's employment report

Gen dk 14:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 14:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
just got confirmation my tgt done

jkt-aye 12:23 GMT February 3, 2004
EUR ... as it hit 1.2566 today, my signal pointed to target 1.2616. Happy hunting ALL.


Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hk ab,
just now my friend telp me ask about ECB meeting. because I don't know .I ask here for get help. I only look chart.

sarasota jf 14:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
some model driven gbpyen initiation with stops at 193.60 - supposed the buyer of gbpusd a couple weeks ago selling here - so we should get a signal soon as to top or firm break - gt

hk ab 0.88 14:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden, what did you mean by ECB meeting?

hk ab 0.88 14:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden, what did you mean by ECB meeting?

Shelbyville MKT 14:45 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Jon, I seen you on the forum last night. I been running a metal project since July. Now I'm back at the quote mchines again. Nice to see some of the same traders are still around.

Cairo Amgad 14:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Buy euro 1.2610(bid) target 1.2687(max)
S/L 1.2576

Tokyo Jon 14:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Shelbyville MKT, hows it going, long time no speak.

GBPJPY[194.03] is approaching first target 194.10 extending to 194.30, but the uptrend is still strong and have good direction from my indicators, so keeping it for atleast 194.80

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2629

Dallas GEP 14:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, as you know I think in terms of very short movements. USD/CAD probably will see at leats the 1.3320/30 area again first/

CT DB 14:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
where is your SL on eurusd short
TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd let's go!!

Gen dk 14:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
now we can hope gbp/usd to get 1.8490, be carefull with this number, maybe fall form here.

HK Kevin 14:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT, your suggestion last night to buy USD/CAD at 1.331? for 1.3350 looks great, but with MACD and Stoch at 8-hr, 4-hr, 2-hr, 1-hr all pointing downward, 1.3250 is not an unrealistic t/p for today.

Shelbyville MKT 14:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
FW: How's your weather this morning

sgp sp 14:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, ok....looks like it is trying very hard....I have a trailing stop in place.....thanks ab....

hk ab 0.88 14:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
after a dive to .6600......

FW CS 14:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Euro looks like its about to break out of daily triangle to the upside. If it can break the daily fractal highs one at 1.2655 (1/27 high) and then the bigger fractal high at 1.2770 (the 1/23 high) then things might get interesting on the upside. A close today above the 20 day Bollinger midpoint MA - 1.2576 may leave those tops in reach. On weekly can call this a bull penant. In terms of Elliot looks like a wave 4 down possibly turning into some type of wave 5 up. Fundamentally not sure if Europe wants it to go much higher from here though.

slv sam 14:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
i am surprised why e/$ is not at 1.27 level by now!GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
SBP Mike.
thanks.

phils VL 14:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - 1.2613 = 61.8% R from Jan 23 high and Jan 30 low, 1.2673 = 76.4%R

Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I think usd/cad will bounce UP soon.

AUS Trader 14:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
AUS Trader 10:11 GMT January 29, 2004
Nzd/Usd above .6730 is the highest monthly close since 1997........ combined with this month's 8 year high up at .6870 it's now too close for the big bull sharks not to finish the job prior to a retrace (only a paltry 130 pips up to the all time high .7000 zones)

................ 100 pips to .7000 ...............


SBP Mike 14:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
4 Raden
From UBS: ECB President Trichet says there is no fundamental change to the ECB's outlook for stable prices. Says policy stance remains appropriate at current low levels & ECB remains concerned about excessive forex moves

hk ab 0.88 14:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sp, my suggest to you is to exit that aud/nzd if it can't break 1.1100 (offer)

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
CD, It is risky but I think there will be some dollar buying prior to G7, I just don't know exactly WHEN!!!! LOL Sleep is overrated, I can sleep when I die!!! LOL

bucharest dc 14:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
kevin, what do you mean?

hk ab 0.88 14:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
50 pips stop sell place under eur.

hk ab 0.88 14:23 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden, ask jf....

Gen dk 14:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:21 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ECB meeting now. anyone help me about that info?

HK Kevin 14:21 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD 1.3250 in sight, if breaks 1.3150.

Johannesburg cd 14:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP that Eur short is brave, very brave, like looking into the barrel. What's your motivation? BTW when do you ever sleep??

hk ab 0.88 14:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ spends all they can spend on this 105.50 line before G7....

so, no more fear in jpy crosses now.

slv sam 14:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:50 GMT January 28, 2004
Those who are strongly bullish e/$ better to short $/CAD IMHO.GT


above is even more correct today!

Cairo Amgad 14:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd when at 1.2591 (bid)

wait and Buy at 1.2610(bid) target 1.2687(max)
S/L 1.2576

Dallas GEP 14:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
1.2598 sell order in place on Euro with fairly tight stop

beijing road 14:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
we will have another bloody day- Feb 6-famacia's turning period for eur/usd?

london cam 14:12 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Gold mid price $397.3

hk ab 0.88 14:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nzd = nazdaq.......

sgp sp 14:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
yes hk ab,......getting closer.....:)

hk ab 0.88 14:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
it needs aud to give up....

sarasota jf 14:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
we just need to grab a few stops on top of eurusd before reversing back to the 40-50 level

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
IMO.
seen eur/usd and gbp/usd buyers not be patience again.

Ldn 14:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Could someone give the Gold price Thank you

Cairo Amgad 14:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Cairo Amgad 01:37 GMT February 5, 2004
eur/usd when at 1.2540 (bid)
buy for 1.2571 (1st target) 1.2598 (2nd target) 1.2687(max)
S/L 1.2517

Sell eur/usd if reach 1.2490(bid)
Target 1.2373
S/L 1.2508


Thank you all, Espicially mr. radan, I have learned a lot from your views. wish you luck.

beijing road 14:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nzd made new high!!!!

bucharest dc 14:08 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab, what do you expect of nzd/usd?

hk ab 0.88 14:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sp, your t/p comes.

hk ab 0.88 14:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
the whole nzd move is well arranged:
aud/jpy intervention + aud/nzd longs liquidation?

brave heart take a break and see u all tomorrow, trail s/l on nzd. on the topside now.

chicago cal 14:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
i'm going to add to my cable longs if it breaks upwards

hk ab 0.88 14:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
filled .6870

nt, let's see this needs a brave heart.

phils VL 14:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - imo looking heavy, but has to trade below 1.2550 to get back to its base at 1.2510/20; extended lquidation later today cud move it lower to 1.2570/80 area.
Shorted at market 1.2582, limit sell triggered 1.2600

usd/jpy - still holding 4day long from 40, will liquidate somtime tomorrow..... mkt nowhere near s/l sub 105... BOJ intervention unlikely since market well behaved, but you'll never know ....few pips plus interest receivable so far ... big deal!!

slv sam 14:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
euro from here to new high? GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gold is good for buy now (have get 397.20). hope wake up from here.

bucharest dc 14:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi razvan :)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
prague mark 13:52 GMT February 5, 2004
yes. full confidence.

Tokyo Jon 13:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
just out of curiosity, has anyone come across a range/trend indicator that works, I have designed a dierctional indicator but lacks something. cheers

Ldn 13:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ECB/Forex Weak Dollar Likely Topic At Weekend G7The European Central Bank is still concerned about the euro's strengthening against the dollar, President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday DJ

Bucharest Razvan 13:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Bucharest dc..

Welcome.. not many of us here, mate.. :) Get my email from Jay ([email protected]) and drop a line..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
9,8,7,6,5..4..3..2.. :-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:53 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I mean not 1.8291 but 1.8391
I think now is good for start for up of eur/usd and gbp/usd seen confirmed 1.8391, and be carefull with 1.8391 maybe price move down from there. Now is on the way after get arround 1.8274 to get 1.8391 (ideal)

prague mark 13:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:51 GMT
do u suggest to long? - TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gold...at 397.40...be careful !!

hk ab 0.88 13:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, that pretty testing patience.

I opened one at 1.5697 and order at 1.5710 now.

Chicago Irish 13:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
VE:When you cut and paste you need to cite the source i.e. reuters etc.

Ldn 13:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
US Jan 24 Wk Jobless Claims Revised To 339K Vs 342K

Tokyo Jon 13:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, the gbpjpy on hourly, ignoring the spikes has a lovely upward channel for the past 7 hours

VE WJ 13:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
February 4: EUR/USD showed little reaction to the 17K jump in weekly jobless
claims. More focus is on the early Trichet comments pleading for FX stability.
He sees the external environment as favorable, as are financing conditions,
meaning no move in rates is expected any time soon.
German and central Asian selling is seen on rallies above 1.2600, helping keep a
lid on the pair. Options are set to roll off at 1.2600 later in the session.
Hope not illegal to paste from another news site

HK Kevin 13:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for typo, should read "Short USD/CAD yesterday from 1.3422 still look promising for a test of 1.3250."

NYC JC 13:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Where did you get ECB comments.LnD?

Thanks.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I think now is good for start for up of eur/usd and gbp/usd seen confirmed 1.8291, and be carefull with 1.8291 maybe price move down from there. Now is on the way after get arround 1.8274 to get n1.8291 (ideal)

Ldn 13:45 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ECB Q&A: Signs Point To Relatively Slow Econ Recovery

HK Kevin 13:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/CAD yesterday from 1.3422 still look promising for a test of 1.5250.
Long EUR/$ from 1.2532 is fine as expected .
Except this EUR/CHF short from 1.5632 and 1.5694, where is the waterfall?

hk ab 0.88 13:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
thanks jf. GT

sarasota jf 13:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab - they dont list it in their page but it would not surprise me that they have bought some gbp and aud and cad for that matter - dont think its too important - we do definately know they bought eur - gt

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
be carefull for gold when at 397.20 maybe wake up from there to get 411.15

Pecs Andras 13:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trichet offsetting the bad US jobs data?

Ldn 13:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
TRICHET says the CB remains concerned by excessive FX moves,

Ldn 13:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ECB: Still Concerned About Excessive Forex Developments

Pecs Andras 13:32 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Initial claims 356K ???
Bad

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
be carefull eur/usd when at 1.2644.
confirmed go there or in counting down now..
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Dallas GEP 13:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Should have left an order to sell @ 1.2600 but I can't watch this stuff 24 hours a day!!! LOL

hk ab 0.88 13:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Jon, I saw the ones on eur from MOF site provided by.... jf?
someone anyway.

Jon, don't worry. it's not the main business and I am always amazed on your jpy signals!

Dallas GEP 13:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Well Friends Looks like the London boys longed the Euro. Last three days have been very tedious. I thought I might be able to pip raid a 100 pips or so prior to G7 but last three trades have been eur/usd long (+25), EUr/usd short (+10 Pips) and USD/CAD long (+20 pips). I think we may see better movement tonight in Asia and London but we will see.

Tokyo Jon 13:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gbpjpy was a little disappointing but the uptrend is still intact, atleast to 194.10.

hk ab, I cant find any figures for the interventions otherthan MOF site, but it doesnt show the interventions with buying euros. My info comes are wispers from various sources.

Sydney alimin 13:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ftse is positive now bouncing from day's low

nyc fxdh 13:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
thanks Belgrade

HK [email protected] 13:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold maY test the 394$ again; will look a little exhaustive there if reached for today.

B.A. BOCA 12:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab// just be carefull that gold is not leading the pack..

Belgrade Knez 12:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc fxdh 12:54 GMT February 5, 2004

15:00 GMT

PAR 12:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
One positive development of the hyperactivity of the BOE and the stability of the ECB is the divergence between the UKs monetary policy and Euro monetary policy which makes it virtually impossible fot the pound to join the EURO. So no more need for referendums on joining the Euro. The BOE made it clear a pound stays a pound and they do not want to join Europ. No more monetary convergence between the UK and Europ but divergence, and I think it is also a reflection of political divergence.

VE WJ 12:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
CAD Building [email protected] 13h30gmt, Cad Ivey PMI 15h00GMT

hk ab 0.88 12:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Andras, if 1.26 is taken out clean, I will wait for nt target mentioned.

Just wanna check whether nzd was used as carried or not.

london p 12:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
unchanged was expected though andras hence no drop

Pecs Andras 12:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I wil short the sh*t out of this pair from 2650/60

nyc fxdh 12:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know when cdn PMI comes out ?

hk ab 0.88 12:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Andras, in Chinese, we have an idiom,

If something gonna happen, it will eventually happen.
If it happens late, it will happen nastily.

GT.

for me, if I don't feel good with a pair, I just don't trade it.

And I haven't touched eur for long.

Pecs Andras 12:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
This EUR is crazy
Unch verdict would have sent the Pound much lower, as it did the AUD but for EUR nothing matters if it wants to go up

bucharest dc 12:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
what about eur/usd?

hk ab 0.88 12:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
bw, thanks.,


close eurgbp .6856.

direction uncertain happy with those 15 pips.

SA Bok 12:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
unchanged ... now wait for news conference ... in 45 minutes .. Then US numbers then G7

Pecs Andras 12:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ECB unch at 2%

Makati Obelix 12:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ECB left rates unchange.

Ldn 12:46 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
unchanged ECB

ThaiLand BW 12:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   

not prepared to be bullish GBP/USD just yet.

Gotta wait for that triangle to break...

la saint3 12:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
willl the next data good for US?
Thanks opinion pls

VE WJ 12:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I read that market will be more interested in post announcement conf with ECB Trichet comments at 13h30 GMT

hk ab 0.88 12:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
shorted 60 and 65 an hr ago.

bucharest dc 12:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab>short on eur/gbp?

hk ab 0.88 12:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
trail eur/gbp short at break even.

Sydney alimin 12:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
what's everyone thinking of the euro/usd after ecd announcement?

hk ab 0.88 12:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
dc, next play is in eur/gbp imvho.
7 mins to go.

hk ab 0.88 12:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi bw.
Mine one is ok, but the red packet monies are .... reduced.
hahaha

bd you are bullish on gbp?

however, I see a big hand on the topside.

if this big hand is removed, I don't mind to see 1.9.

Chambery FR JFB 12:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
PPT 12:30 GMT February 5, 2004
1.2449 bid here :-)

hk ab 0.88 12:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
bok, imvho, it should be short eur/gbp not buy gbp....

bucharest dc 12:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab>i closed at 79...now what?

ThaiLand BW 12:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   

Anyone else seeing triangles ??

I think I see one on GBP/USD that looks about to break out upwards...

Hi AB, how was your Lunar New Year ??

GVI john 12:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2585…$/yen 105.55
DJIA -43 pts… 10-yr 4.09%, -2bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for more...

hk ab 0.88 12:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
oops, too fast, gbp long exited at 1.8355.

SA Bok 12:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
If ECB cut buy GBP ... IMHO

hk ab 0.88 12:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BOCA...

yes.
I am waiting for a gd level to go long on that as well.

Know what, the DROP predicted that eur can't pass 1.21
and it surged to 1.29...

Now, he predicts gold will not dive thru 390.

don't know....

however he is not bad on aud and nzd.

PPT 12:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, what low for $/CHF do u have so far? TIA.

B.A. BOCA 12:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
good day all...gold is worth taking a look at....

Pecs Andras 12:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I meant
thanks WJ

Pecs Andras 12:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks wg

VE WJ 12:23 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
12h45GMT

Pecs Andras 12:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Whattime is the ECB release?

Melbourne Qindex 12:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.8179 // 1.8209 - 1.8240 - 1.8270* - (1.8300) - 1.8331 - 1.8361 // 1.8391 ...

hk ab 0.88 12:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
yes it should be :45 not :30

hk ab 0.88 12:13 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
last train
eur/chf short 1.5690 added.

bucharest dc 12:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
so you wait until 1230?

hk ab 0.88 12:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
put a trail on gbp long above 50

Pecs Andras 12:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Great
Managed to get in at 43
Got out at 91
Good pips in 4 minutes
reload again at lower level

hk ab 0.88 12:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
my dark wish ECB -0.25 but my brain tells me no move is more likely.

hk ab 0.88 12:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
dc, will decide after ECB decision.

hk ab 0.88 12:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Now I see my potential in the eur/gbp short.......
possibility now goes to break of .68.

bucharest dc 12:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab, when do you close position? gbp...

Ldn Mvs 12:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BOE: Household Borrowing Resilient
BOE: World Econ Recovery More Broadly Based
BOE: Further Pickup In UK Growth Seen In 1Q

were accompanying notes with 25bp hike

so not just a UK vison - GBP getting leap on this now
cud well see 1.8500 tdy...

hk ab 0.88 12:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, will keep your 1.27xx in mind.

my easy gbp trade eh?

lisbon 12:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
0.25 hike

phils VL 12:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - taken short at market 82, s/l abv 1.2600

hk ab 0.88 12:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gbp/nzd first pair bottom out, next coming.

hk ab 0.88 12:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
no hike?

Melbourne Qindex 12:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:14 GMT February 5, 2004
GBP/USD : the critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.8270. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.8331 // 1.8361 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.8179 // 1.8209. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 1.8179 // 1.8209 - 1.8240 - 1.8270* - (1.8300) - 1.8331 // 1.8361 ...

GENEVA FHR 12:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BOE + 0.25

sgp sp 11:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, thanks for the tip....will monitor it.....

hk ab 0.88 11:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sp, for intraday, if u see aud/nzd at 1.1050, u can exit first and wait to sell higher or play a tight sl SAR at 1.1050.

AUS Trader 11:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
NZD ....... .7000 soon.......

hk ab 0.88 11:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
anything under 1.56

hk ab 0.88 11:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, are you still holding your cad short?

Johannesburg cd 11:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry ab, on your eur/chf short at 5710, do you have a take profit point in mind?

hk ab 0.88 11:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
buy some easy gbp here for v. short run.

1.8337

Moscow Hawk 11:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Intraday EUR/USD looks strong. While above 1.2520 it is poised to test 1.2630-65. It is early to say whether it will hold upside. There is even a chance that the day will be very bloody for the dollar longs. Need move below 1.2520 to ease pressure upside. So be cautious.

hk ab 0.88 11:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
cd??

hk ab 0.88 11:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
very interesting.....
the last few days movement in jpy and jpy crosses are telling me that both ends put a line.
eur/jpy 133-131?
aud/jpy 80-81?
dlr/jpy105-106?
cad/jpy 78-80?

just food for thoughts. imvho.

Johannesburg cd 11:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab: eur/chf: Bulls eye! Take profit where?

sgp sp 11:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, thanks.....patience can be rewarding.......

hk ab 0.88 11:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sp, I think if you are patient enough, 1.10 should be feasible in about weeks.

Manchester Daniel 11:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab - OK - i suppose i understand - i see there are trades u give s/l (like your eur/chf) and perhaps others you cannot - maybe you have clients that pay you - I do not know your responsibilities - but if you cannot say - I will not ask again.

fwiw - note daily MACD about to cross over UP - will depend on how todays candle completes - so while I understand the double top play - maybe not just yet.

Belgrade Knez 11:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 11:33 GMT February 5, 2004

If you want me to give you tip about Phuket, drop me a mail at [email protected] and I will tell you BEST places to visit as I lived there for 6 years.

sgp sp 11:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I decided to follow you in aud/nzd short and limit order was filled at 1.1201.....may I know what px r u looking at to t/p?

Thanks....always on a lookout for your comments.

Tallinn viies 11:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 10:48 -phuket and koh samui

hk ab 0.88 11:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Daniel, this is a very impt trade on nzd, sorry.
Thanks for your comment.

hk ab 0.88 11:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy locked at 105.50 again.

Manchester Daniel 11:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ab - thanks for your post. I ask about the stop only because I am not as familiar with this pair. For other pairs I know how much room room to allow - thats why I ask for your helpfuul advice. Not that I wish to be rude - but to suggest a trade, without then giving a stop loss, does not really make that much sense. Again, I do not wish to offend - please do not misunderstand - but the whole purpose of a forum is to help each other, not keep secrets.

All the best - good luck and safe trades

hk ab 0.88 11:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
place order shrot eur/chf 1.5710 s/l 1.5738

hk ab 0.88 11:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nzd.... the bulls are hunting stops above previous top.
However, the spike only last up to .6865. and I suspect the mkt are heavily bought more than shorts. Otherwise, the effect should be huge with this spike....


s/l... hm... reserved, sorry, but the line .6870 is useful

Gen dk 11:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bucharest dc 11:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
what do you expect gbp to do after announcement?

Manchester Daniel 11:13 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - as you seem to be our "in house" expert on NZD - i too am watching the double top - but dont really trade this one often. Where would you place stop?
Thanks.

hk ab 0.88 11:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
try, not tried. that's an order.

SA Bok 11:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Heads up here comes the UK Clearers short squeeze before BOE ...

hk ab 0.88 11:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, I tried a double top.

short .6870. no stop.

phils VL 11:09 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - expect a bounce but may not detour much from 1.2600

JF - hi ... Philippines based but frm Sinagpore..how are you? still owe u a email reply. rgds

Tartu kuues 11:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 11:02 GMT - ironic int it

Pecs Andras 11:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR ECON: November Retail Sales -1.9% M/M, -1.6% Y/Y Vs +1.2% ]

USD would fall 200 pips after such numbers ...

sarasota jf 10:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
phils - vl - where are u from ?

hk ab 0.88 10:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, fwiw, my friend DROP sell nzd here. .6840. (many lots he trades).

Belgrade Knez 10:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:33 GMT February 5, 2004

WHICH PART OF THAILAND?

mex sjs 10:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
prague jv, just shorted usdcad here at 1.3360 s/l 1.3390 tgt 1.3260-80 area, good entry advice gt

SA Bok 10:44 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Viies - Also stay away from the Chickens ... Bird Flu etc ..

sarasota jf 10:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
viies
estonia to thailand now theres a holiday !

phils VL 10:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Andras - Officio's range comments 1.10 -1.20 actaually means a fair price target of 1.15 which is the target i'm aiming at next few weeks.

Viies - may be better off missing the fx fireworks Friday 2moro.... enjoy your holidays ... fresh fruits aplenty, bargain shopping, and of course a good massage

malta mb 10:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
it is natural to have contradictory information on different time frames, a movement in the short term may be oppisite to that of the longer term....it is a question of whether you intend to raid some pips or establish a position for longer term.
ideally you would also pip trade in favour of the longer term so that if something goes wrong you can wait out the storm, (if you have enough cash in the kitty, that is)

Tallinn viies 10:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ooooohhh,
last day in the office.... warm Thailand is waiting for me. yippeee

Pecs Andras 10:32 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Interesting ... from IFR

Comments from a European Investment Bank official could have inspired the move higher in EUR/USD. The official suggested a number of large investors, i.e. Asian central banks and Middle East names, have been diversifying assets into the euro. Further, the BDI believes EUR/USD could rise towards 1.40 if there is no G7 agreement on forex, according to Reuters. The official is hoping that finance ministers will agree to a statement desiring a stable 1.10 - 1.20 rate. EUR/USD currently trades just off the 1.2594 European session highs

phils VL 10:22 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - Limit sell entry at 1.2600 missed by a coupla pips... still waiting. stox and macd beginning to show - var

Sydney alimin 10:18 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
mb, in the case where you have contradictory information from those charts, do you have any particular chart to base your decision upon?
i sometimes have that feeling and have to look at other currencies as well
has anybody ever felt that too much info from charts can badly influence the decision making?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I hope can help you.
Short term trade :

Eur/usd still give energy for move up to get arround 1.2644 or 1.2737, but signal to get 1.2737 still no seen on the short term trade. Be carefull if price get 1.2644 because this level is potential give selling reaction.

if price show 1.2650 that’s mean will up again to get 1.2637 but ussually before go there price move down for a while but not for down trend. You can wait at lower for buying placement again. Be carefull when at 1.2737 because this level is more potential give you selling reaction. Better focuse on buying for short term trade.

Trade Strategy :

• Buy at 1.2536 for target 1.2640 with stp 1.2380
• If 1.2655 show you , wait at 1.2600 for buy for target 1.2735 with stp at 1.2501
• Sell at 1.2644 for target 30 pips with stp at 1.2665
• Sell at 1.2735 for target 60 pips with stp at 1.2755
Middle term trade :

For middle term trade , eur/usd seen will up for a while to finish short term cyclic at 1.2644 or 1.2737. That number is potential as a top for minor cyclic and potential become top of corection for long term phase to get major corection of weekly chart at 1.2210 as a first target or 1.1837 is second target or 1.1760 as extreme target.
But if 1.2930 be broken before get 1.2210 better wait to think for buy because strong up will come. Confirmation to get 1.2210 is if 1.2332 be broken , but ussually if price get confirmation for down, price move againts that confirmation to make swing. Hope not thinking buy if like that but better wait for sell at higher (sell on up rally).

Trade Strategy :

• Sell at 1.2644 to get 1.2240 with stp at 1.2660
• Sell at 1.2735 to get 1.2240 with stp at 1.2755
• Buy at 1.2215 to get 1.2300 with stp at 1.2200
Long term trade :

If we see weekly candle there is bearish engulfing. That’s mean will down so far below 1.2000. But don’t forget that this move down so far is corection type of up movement from 1.1100 to 1.2910. We can play in this corection before get 1.3170. Ideal bottom before move up to get 1.3170 is from low 1.2210 or 1.1837 or 1.1737. You can try buy at that numbers with tight stp and if price still break 1.1760 that’s better wait and see to get confirmation again price will move down again or make swing only.

Trade Strategy :

• Buy at 1.2210 for target 1.3170 with stp 1.2190
• Buy at 1.1837 for target 1.3170 with stp 1.1817
• Buy at 1.1760 for target 1.2370 with stp 1.1740
• Sell at 1.3170 for target 1.2500 with stp 1.3190

Helsinki iw 10:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Story going round that Mick Deadly will come out with
a dollar bullish report. No knowledge as to accuracy of this.

Gen dk 10:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

prague jv 10:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
seems to me , usd/jpy is buy from 105.45 level for short to mid timefrime players .

malta mb 10:12 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sydney i would use as any time frames as possible..i sometimes even use tic...you cna never have enough information

hk ab 0.88 10:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
will close eur/gbp short soon after BOE anouncement. no matter which direction it goes.

hk ab 0.88 10:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, do u still envision the double top/triple top in nzd?

Sydney alimin 10:08 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
what sort of chart are you guys normaly use to make your day trading entry/exit decisions? 5 min?10 min? 30 min?

Hong Kong nt 10:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- EUR 1.2700/50, CHF 1.2300/50, GBP 1.8500/50, AUD 0.7700/50, CAD 1.3200/50, sell...

hk ab 0.88 09:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, even in this session? :)

SA Bok 09:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
May I please ask the low offered USDJPY in the last 3 hours please ?
Seems brokers are fading prices again ...

TIA

Hong Kong nt 09:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- in very short term, we guess euro may peak at 1.2777...

hk ab 0.88 09:51 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, joined u first short eur/chf 1.5697

mex sjs 09:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
thanx prague jv.....will be watching it....gt

malta mb 09:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
imho eur/usd spike is a feint and should bounce off 1.26 res more than once

hk ab 0.88 09:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
one more eur/gbp at .6864 same SAR.

la saint3 09:48 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sell gbp sell !!! ^_^

hk ab 0.88 09:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/aud is about to break the daily bollinger range to the topside.

prague jv 09:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
sjs
I do expect usd/cad around 1.3360 B4 next sell of , if lucky enuf . take care , trade safe .

mex sjs 09:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
am about to short usdcad at 1.3341 s/l above today's high +10 pips tgt 1.3280, any opinion welcome

hk ab 0.88 09:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
the s/l is a SAR order.

hk ab 0.88 09:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, small try eur/gbp short .6860 tight s/l. 80.

Prague JV 09:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
closed usd/cad short 1.3348 . sidelined for now , thinking of resell later , when more clear.

hk ab 0.88 09:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
it's an early eur/jpy intervention?

beijing road 09:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
patience always pays well.

hk ab 0.88 09:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, thanks. Let's see if we are lucky enough to get the spike 1.85.

Nassau QF (newb) 09:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Closed EUR/USD too early GEP :)
I was getting tired of waiting too.
Luckily I held my position.

slv sam 09:32 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
higher euro higher...

Vilnius george 09:32 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
do we got anything on front?

beijing road 09:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
haha,eur !

Hong Kong nt 09:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 08:29 GMT -- my wife and i guess a range of 1.79-1.84 with downside bias...

Melbourne DC 09:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hello GEP
How's your eurgbp plan ? eurgbp has a lot of wood to chop 0.6845-55/65-75 ... but maybe buying dip around 0.6800 is also attractive. GT n all the best . DC

London L 09:18 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
A curious question:

How many people read two currency chart (e.g. EUR/USD, USD/CHF) for trading cross?

How many people read a cross chart instead (e.g. EUR/CHF) for trading cross?

OR both?

I read both

Hong Kong nt 09:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:13 GMT -- reverse to long at 12980. wave count, wave A- 13820-12825, wave B(a) 13160, wave B(b) 12965, wave B(c) 13300, wave C 12300...

hk ab 0.88 09:12 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/aud is v. nervous now......

London L 09:12 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
It is my habit to buy "dear" for pivot point proving. Although it always cost more but it is more profitable in long term.

beirut jb 09:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
London L 09:03 GMT

yes mate in condition to clear 13380 level, good entry was on 13320 hold as yesteday disccussion here

Dallas GEP 09:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Closed Eur/USD long from 1.2525 @ 1.2550

London L 09:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi, good to buy CAD now, for a 50 pips profit!?

Manchester Daniel 08:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
missed a word - should read FASTEST rise in 15 months

Manchester Daniel 08:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
News from todays UK Times:

An unexpected rise in house prices last month will lend weight to the BoE widely expected decsion to raise base rates by at least 1/4 point today.

House prices lept 2.2% in January, the fastest rise in 15 months.

There is then a further article titled: Average price of first home hits £100,000.

Looking at the current 5 year fixed mortgage rate schemes being offerred at the moment, rising rates have most certainly already been factored into the mortgage market, as the best (lowest) fixed rate schemes (at one point just under 5%) have vanished.

One more note: Mortgage payments for average family account for 13% of gross earnings and would only increase to 15% if the base rate moved up 0.5%. Therefore the BoE would consider a rate rise as "affordable" to most homeowners.

For those unaware, the ONLY reason BoE considering rate rise is due to UK housing market - people here keep re-mortgaging their houses as a way of releasing ££ in the bricks. In turn, the now ££ laden consumer goes out and spends, spends, spends.

While good for the retailers, UK consumers sitting on HUGE amount of debt (a la their American cousins). So BoE must try and calm down the mad spending consumer.

Perhaps someone from OZ could confirm: I am told Aussie housing market is also very hot - like in UK. HOwever, note no rate hike by RBA this week - food for thought.

Safe trades everyone

Bratislava chylo 08:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
OK Prague JV

Prague JV 08:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Chylo
I have no info about ECB at the moment
vlado , ja mel velke problemy s pocitacem a stratil jsem hodne informaci i msn . ozvi se mi emailem

Nassau QF (newb) 08:45 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Big news day.
From Forex News
Times are EST

7:00:00 AM UK Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (Base Rate)
7:45:00 AM E-12 European Central Bank Rate Decision (Repo Rate)
8:30:00 AM US Q4 Productivity (Prelim)
8:30:00 AM US Q4 Labor Costs
8:30:00 AM US Weekly Jobless Claims 342K 342K
8:30:00 AM E-12 ECB Monthly Press Conference
10:00:00 AM CAN Jan IVEY PMI

Ldn 08:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--The number of unemployed people in Germany fell by 81,000 in seasonally adjusted terms in January from December, a source with access to the official German Labor Office data said Thursday.
The German Labor Office uses a new method of calculating jobless figures as of January. It will now exclude some 80,000 jobseekers who are currently in job training programs.

Under the old method, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed would have risen by close to 30,000 on the month in January, another source told German newswire VWD.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected this number to have dropped by 15,000 in January from December.

Chambery FR JFB 08:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 08:29 GMT February 5, 2004
I think placing a sell stop (a bit deeper underneath) prior to rate decision could be workable.
fwiw, I have a sell order @1.8285, s/l 1.8370, tp 1.8120... GT

Bratislava Chylo 08:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Prague JV
Is it true that there are rumors about ECB intervention?

Prague pleace kontact MSN

Ldn Mvs 08:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF Hayashi: Will Take Action Vs FX Speculation
MOF Hayashi: Can't Comment On Snow FX Remarks
Japan To Reiterate FX Stance
09:28
Japan MOF Hayashi: Expect G7 To Discuss FX

Sydney alimin 08:38 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
thx Plovdiv

Ldn Mvs 08:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
German Jan Jobless -81K Vs Dec -13K Revised

SA getFX 08:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 08:25 GMT > I have consensus fig 240k - hardly changed.

Plovdiv Gotin 08:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
to alimin/1.8483/93.

hk ab 0.88 08:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I am ready to open new eur/chf short if this animal doesn't climb above 1.5730.

hk ab 0.88 08:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, what's your strategy on gbp at the moment?

seems many of our friends here perfer to buy the hike.

I think placing a sell stop (a bit deeper underneath) prior to rate decision could be workable.

Sydney alimin 08:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
if i go long on gbp/usd, what would be the target? any suggestion?TIA

Prague JV 08:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad 1.3370 , short taken .

hk ab 0.88 08:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, eur/aud big move is coming.

aud/nzd can be sold at previous support which is 1.12 -1.1220 for a run down to 1.10 area.

hk ab 0.88 08:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Jon, thanks very much!

Tokyo Jon 08:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I will find some dates for you, just one moment

Tokyo Jon 08:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have a forecast for the US weekly jobless claim. I see it is reported as being the same 342K.

I must also agree with the BOE raising 50bps. with this inmind and not seeing my drop to 192.70 as expected, will be buying one lot of gbpjpy in an hours time, with a very tight stop, if it goes against.

hk ab 0.88 08:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 03:41 GMT February 5, 2004
GEP, just perusing the forum and would like to make an observation. One reason there is more demand for gbp over eur is to do with MOF, the have been and probably continue using the gbp with their interventions. The gbpjpy is currently in a downward motion where I am going to load up with a buy, ready for the interest rate data



Jon, didn't some of our friends here have mentioned that MOF has never used gbp/jpy in intervention?
Just want to check it up.
I thought it was from jf, right? TIA.

There's a site mentioning all the ex-intervention data and couldn't find gbp there at all. (at least till Nov 2003)

PAR 08:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Buy GBP. Expect BOE to raise rates, maybe even with 50 basis points. BOE being an hyperactive central bank and UK a smaller mostly consumption oriented economy warrants higher rates despite - UK low inflation, already very high real UK interest rates, an incredible strong sterling, very low salaries for lower class workers, an always growing trade and budget deficit, moderate economic growth, a war stimulated economy and a big inflow of Russian money looking for investment in UK football teams.

Brissy JM 08:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Alicante RTN - thanks

Alicante RTN 08:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
UK rate decision at 12:00 GMT

sarasota jf 08:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
jv - not in short term - im sorry

Brissy JM 08:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone - does anyone have the time that MPC announce their interest rate decision in the UK? Thanks

Prague JV 08:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
JF Sarasota
Hi there ,
Have you got eny info about usd/cad please ?
On my charts is deeloping opp. to go short . THX and GL

Miami OMIL 07:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
From 1-27-04 I have a bigger range on this triangle for eur/usd decreasing roughly 2 pips every 4 hours. It is at the moment at around 1.2580-75. I am still favoring the long euro for the moment but the market has not decided yet IMHO. (/;->

Miami OMIL 07:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW eur/usd has been bouncing of 50ma on 1hr chart for a couple of days. I have a triangle forming too with channels at around 1.2480-2500 and 1.2545-50 area the 50ma is keeping support for the moment at roughly 1.2530-35. Something has to give soon IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Melb mpfx 07:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 07:28 // Yes, very sure...........

London L 07:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Reply UK: I can't have detail explain as I am a chartist. However, from my experience it always has "anti-expect" moving before major event then another "reverse" movement again after the announcement. It generally applies in interest, stock and currency market.

SA Bok 07:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
UK Proteus 07:28 -

Market already LONG GBP
Expected is .25bp already factored in
Buy the Rumour Sell the Fact

Now if we get 50 bp well

Longs will make more

Will be like a Yo To this pair as UK clearers will run the show ...

GL All

HK 88 Hope you did not Long USDZAR ?

UK Proteus 07:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Good morning. Could someone please explain to me (4x innocent) why the general view is for GBP/USD to fall today when the BOE is expected to raise interest rates by .25%? Tks.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 07:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
melb , concords r fluing to Bahdad from To
are u sure about the euro count

sarasota jf 07:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
germans trying to take eur up a little but citi group offering gbpusd slowing any momentum - if u can call 10 points anything - gbp above 25 might push things under that its slow work

London L 07:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Actually, I sold some gold call at 400.

Nassau QF (newb) 07:21 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Ah. Movement on Cable and EUR/USD.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
IMO.
gold 411.20

Singapore Pilot 07:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm still holding on to my long Gold....conviction man... I see 500 this year and don't think we get very much below 390

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:13 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
HK nt.
If you are here we must say thanks to Mr. Hang Seng..handsome.LOL

London L 07:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I don't think gold price will rise.

Melb mpfx 07:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs 06:57 // Also 52 week weekly av = 254 pips

Singapore toto 07:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ok apologies to Dr Unken Kat....

Melb mpfx 07:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs 06:57 // Eur/usd weekly since 4-1-1999 = 229 pips

QF // :))

mex sjs 06:57 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
melb mpfx, by any chance do you have the avg trading range for euro since its inception in weekly basis? TIA

Nassau QF (newb) 06:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe one pipo = 1.7 pips :)

Melb mpfx 06:50 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
bahdad Dr Unken Kat // I think you will find that the 52 week av daily trading range for eur/usd at present is 117 pips, the historic av from 4-1-1999 is 97 pips.....
Also how did u get from torronto to bahdad ??

bahdad Dr Unken Kat 06:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EURO IS CLEARLy headed for north 1H shows stox up and EMA 50&200 cross as well as MACD
since euros average dayly trading range is 66 pipos
and we ve been 2 nd day in the tight range , i think its gonna xplode north soon

Stockholm za 06:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY... at the moment ..
8484-8469
8453-8449
8429
8409-8404
8389-8373
TR = ~8634-8505-:-8345-8212
outer spectrum ~8567-:-8261
Happy trades.......

Ldn 06:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Number of Australian gold producers (at the smaller end of town) looking to sell gold forward if price gets back up toward A$550/oz, says head of privately held mining investment company in Australia. Price now A$526 with AUD/USD at 0.7600 and gold trading around US$400/oz. "Whether it's optimism or not, they will be happy to lock in there for a while as people forget that local producers' benefits from gold price rise have been limited to some degree by the rise in AUD," he says
reuters

Nassau QF (newb) 06:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Unken Kat has been here a while.
He's not spamming the forum for Citibank.

I appreciate it when people include links when they post information because we can judge the validity of that info based on the source or we can go there for more indepth information if it's available.

It was a little dated but sometimes we miss certain news items.

Melbourne Qindex 06:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 06:06 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
not behind the market toto lotto but under the desk , we ll see tommorow

Melbourne Qindex 05:53 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2496 - 1.2521 - 1.2545* - 1.2569

Singapore toto 05:52 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hahah yeah whoever that is marketing for citibank must be some 'investment' officer who is normally behind the market.
Throw him out!!

Miami OMIL 05:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks JF that info and the eur/usd riding the 20ma gives the % to an upside breakout IMHO. (/;->

ICT ML 05:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
You guys think he wanted one of those chat rooms where there are 30 idiotic posts every minute and you can't keep track of anything....?....I'll take these quality conversations and trade ideas over quantity any day......LOL...but that is just me....

sarasota jf 05:42 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
theres an asian cb bidding for eurusd under here - buba offer at 60 stops at 70 then buba at 1.2600
usdyen theres offers on top above here european orders to buy yen call strikes - some fixing demand today was the bid

Miami OMIL 05:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 05:31 GMT February 5, 2004
I will agree with that but sometimes it is hard to wait. (/;->

London L 05:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I don't think there is any real trend until EUR break through 1.3 or 1.23. So, I will keep out from EUR except some small day trade.

Macro Micro 05:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
This guy Toronto is marketing for Citibank? That news is 24 hours old!!

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 05:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPSIDE TESTING
TRADING RANGE USD1.2460 - 1.2600
U.S. raised terrorist concern. Market also believed G7 will not have major impact on the market. The sentiment of Euro improved yesterday. Keep Euro long opened at 1.2500USD with stop at entry level.

http://www1.citibank.com.hk/cgi-bin/bv.cgi/eng/investments/iv_fxd.jsp

Singapore Pilot 05:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
ok glad to be in the hotest 'real time' FX chat room....
this is the calm b4 the storm........

Melbourne Qindex 05:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2483 - 1.2501 - 1.2518 - 1.2536

Dallas GEP 05:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Actually Dr. Kat, I allow for 5-7 pips run through before I consider the bias to have turned. 1.2519 -7 = 1.2512. So I consider 1.2512 to be ACTUAL pivot although from a pure technical standpoint 1,2519 is the correct point.

This 5-7 pip allowance decreases the chance of their being a false break.

beijing road 05:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I will hold bullish EUR view for med-term until 1.23 is take out.

beijing road 05:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : I like this kind of rangy market. The longer consolidation, the stronger break-out. Still expect EUR rises much higher as long as 1.2480 is not printed (my stoploss).Patience often pays well. GL.

Ldn 05:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
London L your in it

Melbourne Qindex 05:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Singapore Pilot 05:25 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thot this was 'real time' enuff..... if not looks like i am in the wrong place

Melbourne Qindex 05:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2484 - 1.2514 - 1.2545

London L 05:16 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know any hot FX "real time" chat room?

Melbourne Qindex 05:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

London L 05:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
The fundemental of a strong NZD is a large pool of "school fee" wiring from Chinese and Korean immigrant.

Nassau QF (newb) 05:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I guess everyone else is waiting for the market to move too ML.

Maybe in the next two hours things will pick up.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 05:05 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gep , 12 you got as the PIvot point ? someone else got 19 or 27 , i have 12 and im not sure

Singapore Pilot 05:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
The NZD has been supported by real money pouring into New Zealand especially from all over Asia .It is not as speculative as say ccys like Eur and Gbp...
In my view if you are bearish Usd$, buy the Nzd... if bullish Usd$, sell Gbp...So ..sell Gbp/nzd cross and maybe buy some short dated Usd$ puts yen calls to hedge that...

sarasota jf 05:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
u shud be watching my old school beat louisville on espn 2- fx is slow

ICT ML 04:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Something don't move soon, I'm going to have to turn off these high doller LCD screens so the pixels don't burn permanent charts into the screen.....ridiculus

Macro Micro 04:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
The Kiwi has never been the leadfer for directions, so why should it be now?
Dont look into direct NzdUsd.... there are tonnes of cross plays.
Good luck pal...

Singapore Pilot 04:54 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc ..i'm with you..have the same view on that .. unless we cross and close abv 1.8410.. stay short...

London L 04:49 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
NZD seems relatively strong thses days, it is showing a sign of falling USD ?

Macro Micro 04:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Majority thinks BoE will move 25bp today with minor calling 50. Yes, recent data supports but watch the public borrowing rate. Click up and will trigger delinquents and probably property crash.
G7 - might about Euro strength and not dollar weakness. They might not touch on Asian CB's.
Japan - US wants a weaker USD, Japan wants a weaker Yen...so? Stock mkt is doing well but exporters are hurt by lower UsdYen especially those who used exotic options to hedge monthly exposures. Only problem here lies with BoJ's intervention fund.... its running very very low.

Good luck to all - be agile and prudent.

Dallas GEP 04:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Actually Dr. Kat, I feel 1.2512 is the make or break point.

nyc 04:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gbp, buy the rumour sell the fact, can happen and despite that, a rate hike is already priced in.If no hike happen, big selloff, imo.

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 04:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
the bias will change for short if euro crosses 2519

Dallas GEP 04:33 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Well Omil RE: Euro/USD. I may be nuts here but I am going LONG on Eur/USD from 1.2525 with fairly tight stop although I think the bias is DOWN. I got 10 pips out of my earlier eur/usd short.

Warning: this could very easily go either way.

Tokyo Jon 04:31 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry GEP, was just cleaning the house. This and that may sound strange, but I am looking at buying one lot gbpjpy 192.70, but will open one position about half hour before data release, if it has not reached 192.70. This level has a highl probabilty factor and should see a sell off in the next few hours

Miami OMIL 04:29 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP the market is like a dog chasing his tail going nowhere slow LOL. As I have said before we are going to have to wait for the market to show us the way there is no need in guessing where is going when it will tell us later IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 04:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, new JAVA installed and running. THANKS!!!

Dallas GEP 04:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
YEN outlook IMO. I think at this time it is best to be a seller of USD/JPY rather than a buyer. As long as YEN remains at this 105.50 level, I don't see that the mOF will be all that excited. So IF that is true the only thing that would push usd/jpy long would be NEW buyers and at 105.50/60 that probability is not all that probable. Before G7 then, I say range is probably 105.65 to 105.30. IF the market decides to test BOJ again, I say range could then be 105.15 to 105.75.

Sydney alimin 04:23 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
i agree with you GEP
i am thinking of buying some gbp/usd ahead of the interest rate hike
but then there is G7 meeting ahead too, not sure about the direction

Miami OMIL 04:21 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
There is no fun in that GEP lol. Incase you did not get you latest java here is the site: http://www.java.com/en/index.jsp
What do you think about the pennant forming on the eur/usd GEP? (/;->

Dallas GEP 04:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, this is VERY difficult trading here presently because we have so little movement. I think it's best to watch until a definite trend develops.

Mumbai Sachin Z. 04:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
BOE may hike the rate today

Dallas GEP 04:15 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
JON, where is you buy point on GBP/JPY????

Dallas GEP 04:14 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Good post Jon, that makes sense RE: more demand for pound.

LAX-LGB SNP 03:59 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
if EZ open cannot change current picture then
buy usdchf ahead of 1.2488-1.2506
buy usdcad ahead of 1.3330
sell gbpusd below 1.8332
sell gbpjpy below 193.24
sell gbpchf below 2.2954
sell eurusd below 1.2536
sell eurjpy below 132.54
sell eurgbp below 0.6850
sell audusd below 0.7617

GL GT everyone :-) have fun

Mumbai S.A.Z. 03:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
So whats the view on euro now???

DO u think 1.2640 will break or the target still remains 1.2140 on break of 1.2320

Sydney alimin 03:43 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
hi people
i am new here
any recommendation or thoughts for my consideration?

Tokyo Jon 03:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP, just perusing the forum and would like to make an observation. One reason there is more demand for gbp over eur is to do with MOF, the have been and probably continue using the gbp with their interventions. The gbpjpy is currently in a downward motion where I am going to load up with a buy, ready for the interest rate data

Philippines newtrader 03:12 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
good morning raden... any outlook for YEN? whats the best position for short term trading for today?.....

Melbourne Qindex 03:08 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:42 GMT February 4, 2004
GBP/USD : 1.8314 - 1.8330 -----> 1.8259 - 1.8267 -----> 1.8179 - 1.8197


Van jv 02:58 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
February 4, 2004 by the lndependent/UK
Intelligence Chief's Bombshell: 'We Were Overruled on Dossier'
by Paul Waugh

"The intelligence official whose revelations stunned the Hutton inquiry into the death of government scientist David Kelly has suggested that not a single defense intelligence expert backed Tony Blair's most contentious claims on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction."




Gen dk 02:55 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney2 02:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Will a strong employment figure on Friday be a very bad news to stock market? comments please

singapore emperor 02:36 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Daily USD Index is on the verge going towards positive region.Need to break 87.60 then we see USD sentiment
change ... so watch it...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Frankfurt H Tietmayer
yes..right. for that case-1 strategy I count about probability and still seen objective stp in that current price.

Frankfurt H. Tietmeyer 02:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:11,

To be concise, strategy 1, risk 156 points to make 104 points correct? TIA

singapore emperor 02:28 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
is a range mkt.
1.2510-1.2560...... break either way... will be ugly.
If NY nver take EUR back to 1.2610, we see EUR to 1.2330

LAX-LGB SNP 02:27 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
doing a quick run of the charts here and scenarios over the last 24 hours are not too supportive for the conti-majors, will be back around EZ to see what the markets decide about their fate :-)

Singapore Pilot 02:23 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Eur looking heavy here...selling orders at 1.2550 likely to cap this ahead of G7 meeting... shud see 1.2480 then 1.2330 again pre G7

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:11 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Frankfurt Tietmeyer.
Eur/usd still give energy for move up to get arround 1.2644 or 1.2737, but signal to get 1.2737 still no seen on the short term trade. Be carefull if price get 1.2644 because this level is potential give selling reaction.

if price show 1.2650 that’s mean will up again to get 1.2637 but ussually before go there price move down for a while but not for down trend. You can wait at lower for buying placement again. Be carefull when at 1.2737 because this level is more potential give you selling reaction. Better focuse on buying for short term trade.

Trade Strategy :

• Buy at 1.2536 for target 1.2640 with stp 1.2380
• If 1.2655 show you , wait at 1.2600 for buy for target 1.2735 with stp at 1.2501
• Sell at 1.2644 for target 30 pips with stp at 1.2665
• Sell at 1.2735 for target 60 pips with stp at 1.2755

Dallas GEP 02:03 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks GV, Jay I persume!!!

nyc jk 02:01 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888 01:41 GMT February 5, 2004
RBNZ have never, in the their history, intervened in the currency mkts

Not true. In 1987 when Andy Krieger launched a speculative selling attack on the NZD the RBNZ intervened, quite unsucessfully I may add. They learned their lesson then for the reasons you suggest.

Singapore Pilot 01:56 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
nions demand action on runaway euro
Telegraph

Europe's trade union movement called yesterday for concerted action by the EU institutions to flood the world markets with euros and drive down the exchange rate.

Warning that the sharp rise in the euro had reached "alarming" levels, the unions demanded that the European Central Bank intervene by all possible means to "eliminate the possibility of speculative currency attacks".

The report, written by the European Trade Union Confederation, predicted that eurozone growth would barely reach 1pc in 2004, prolonging a "four-year slump".

The shrill language is part of the growing pressure on Europe's leaders to adopt a policy of competitive devaluation to counter the weak-dollar policy of the Bush administration.

ETUC called for a halving of interest rates to US levels of 1pc and massive purchases of foreign currencies along the lines of the Japanese and Chinese central banks.

"The ECB, the Commission and European finance ministers must be ready to buy up foreign currency in order to stabilise the euro's exchange rate. Since the ECB is the central bank that 'prints' euros, there is no technical constraint to building up foreign currency reserves," said the report.

HK 8888 01:41 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
RBNZ have never, in the their history, intervened in the currency mkts. The main reason being that their reserves are simply too small to withstand a concerted attack by speculators. Highly unlikely they would intervene, particulalrly in AUD/NZD.
If they were to intervene, they should look back at the RBA's successful interventions in AUD/USD below 0.5000 a few years back. They predominantly used ccy options.

Houston KC 01:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:17 GMT February 5, 2004
Yep Pilot, it seemed like me and the BOJ were the only ones long!!!!!

Make that 3 of us GEP. I have been playing the long usd/jpy game for about a month now making pretty decent money on it. I split my trade up into about 5 seperate trades spaced 10 pips apart in the BOJ defense zone as I call it. Wait for an intervention and sell and then reload in the zone again. The usd/jpy at times seems like a normal currency and actually reacts to the USD movements, like it is doing now. My guess is that BOJ has some good connections and knows when they need to intervene. So in a way this weeks low intervention is good from my perspective. Means maybe they know something about the general usd direction this week. Or they could be just laying low before G-7. Either way I view this trade as low risk as I don't think they will let 105 slip by just yet. Plus draw a little bit in interest while waiting...lol

SF MRZ 01:39 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
If short $/Jpy, then short Eur/Jpy and Long Eur/$.

Livingston nh 01:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 - strong employment on Friday (better than 150 K) probably rally the USD but the post G7 meeting should put it on the skids again -- I'm trying to imagine a G7 announcement that would weaken the EUR and I can't

Cairo Amgad 01:37 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd when at 1.2540 (bid)
buy for 1.2571 (1st target) 1.2598 (2nd target) 1.2687(max)
S/L 1.2517

Sell eur/usd if reach 1.2490(bid)
Target 1.2373
S/L 1.2508

hk ab 0.88 01:34 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
we have heard about RBNZ / NZ fin. PM saying they will intervene.

IF they do so, I suspect that they will do it via aud/nzd.

Cairo Amgad 01:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello All;

eur/usd when at 1.2540 (bid)
buy for 1.2571
S/L 1.2517

Global-View 01:30 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP. I received an email from one of our members suggesting downloading the lastest version of java and the ticker should work well afterwards.

Sydney2 01:18 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh,
a stronger empolyment figure on Friday should favor a stronger USA$, and a euro selloff, right?

Dallas GEP 01:17 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Yep Pilot, it seemed like me and the BOJ were the only ones long!!!!!

Dallas GEP 01:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I have to keep looking because the ticker looks like it is locked up. This sucks!!!!

Singapore Pilot 00:47 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
judging from the orders on the order board ..mkt seems more short usd jpy than long....

Singapore Pilot 00:40 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
gooooood morning all......another zzzzzzz day in far east? sell gbp near 1.8340 50....s/l 1.8410 still intact.... buy usd yen 105.40 s/l 105.20 .....what we need is some breaking news in far east for a change

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:35 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Frankfurt H. Tietmeyer 00:26 GMT February 5, 2004
fro today I prefer talking of daytrade only except when price at 1.2210 or 1.1837 or 1.1760 we can talk for longterm up move. I can not say anything today for long term based on current price today.
okay.. for day trade I will give you analysis (TA)..but wait... because still little busy here keep my staff trade in Nikkei and Hang Seng focuse on sell .

Frankfurt H. Tietmeyer 00:26 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi , Sir, where does Euro/USD go from here at 1.2533? Do you feel it will go up, or down from 1.2533, and by how much?

Dallas GEP 00:24 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
On Eur/GBP R1=.6843 R2=.6872 S1=.6798 S2=.6782

Gen dk 00:20 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:19 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
London Zak
I look Snow comment is the key for eur/usd.
sign of eur/usd strong for long term. 1.3633 but maybe move from 1.2210 or 1.1837 or 1.1760.

Ga Lee 00:13 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
I would say it depends on which economy is now, or do you expect to outperform in the future...the eurozone, or the british..

Dallas GEP 00:10 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Unless I am reading something wrong here, there seems to be more demand for pounds than for euros at this time.

Anybody else have a view on this????

Frankfurt H. Tietmeyer 00:07 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Z candlesticks are for z oragami player. Demand on z open vill prevail.

Dallas GEP 00:04 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Frankfurt, what makes you think it could get there?????

Frankfurt H. Tietmeyer 00:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Selling Euro/Pound at 0.6886 is viser.

London ZaK 00:02 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
Good morning raden any thoughts on eur/usd tia

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:00 GMT February 5, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!!

 




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