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Forex Forum Archive for 02/06/2004

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Texas(Jksn.) PNB 23:45 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I am taking a short eur/usd here and shall reverse on a break of 1.2730
TIA:-)

Nassau QF (newb) 22:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Porto Azarento.
Did you keep your long Euro position?

Porto Azarento 22:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ticka, cable is GBP

new york ticka 22:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hi,
what is cable?can any one explain please.i am new to 4x.

thanks

Porto Azarento 22:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Long on usdjpy waiting g7.

Ldn 21:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dow Jones quotes UK Chancellor Brown as stating that forex will be
on the menu along with the coffee, for Saturday morning discussions

Colo Chief1Oar 21:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
MOSCOW:

Can you tell me what time you have there? I've been demo trading with a platform that operates on Moscow time, and they close down trading at 11:00 (Moscow Time). I would like to know what time that translates into in Colo.... Looks like I would have missed the big move in NY this a.m.

Thanx... have a great Weekend everyone...

Chief

st. pete islander 21:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Yessirreee. For all the good it will do me. Ate a stupid pill about two hours ago and will punch out of my tiny short Eur in a few. I gotta quite doing Fridays. LOL

Dallas GEP 21:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
IF any of you guys have a different high than what's been posted, please post it up. I am fixin to jump through a T1 line and choke a board operator (LOL).

Dallas GEP 21:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
WEIRD. 45 more minutes then, I guess I lost track of that Islander.

st. pete islander 21:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nope.....not til 1700 est

Dallas GEP 21:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Islander, isn't GEEFFFTEE closed????

ny rm 21:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
re: AUD HIGH .7709(BID)

Dallas GEP 21:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks GEO I had .7709 on one platform and .7707 on another

st. pete islander 21:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, I have .7707 and still wiggling ....

Edi Geo 21:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
how many replies u had Moscow? no one cares

Edi Geo 21:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
7710 high I got and currently 7706 mid

Dallas GEP 21:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
What was HIGH today guys on AUSSIE and what did it close at please?????

Nassau QF (newb) 20:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I had taken a short position on EUR/USD at 1.2690.
Not based on charts but I just thought the climb was too fast and expected it to drop.
If it closes above 1.27 though, I'm not sure how likely a fall is.

I think I'll close that short with a loss now.
My profits from my long position from 1.2550 will more than cover it.

Alb Emm 20:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Monday the RBA's quarterly monetary policy statement is likely to contain wording suggesting the central bank has lower inflation concerns and will keep rates on hold with the softening housing sector

Gen dk 20:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Chicago 20:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Okay....I'm done with my prognostications (sp?). Have a good weekend all.

Chicago 20:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Scanning my quote board, SPOOs etc seem to be the only markets that are "mispriced". We may see a test the recent highs but I really do think the highs are in for a while. I think we back-n-fill down to 1090 before making a run at 1175-85.

Ldn 20:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BOJ Fukui is on the tape stating that the G7 must monitor forex to stem excessive moves.

Chicago 20:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Numbers? I am looking for cable to print 1.88 and eur/dlr to print 1.29. Look for sub 104.25 dlr/yen and I expect aud/usd to print 0.7750. Not sure about the loonie.

Chicago 20:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Speaking to some folks I get the feeling that there are a surprising number of long dollar positions going into G7. Given todays (unexpected?) breakdown, I think that the dollar is going to take a plunge Sunday night, monday morning before we see the 'genuine' start of a dollar retracement......Unfortunately most dollar longs (m/t specs) will have already been stopped out.

Ldn 19:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
The AFR speculates that the RBA will hold off on interest rates to allow the housing market a soft landing, and can maintain this approach all the time Aussie strength provides a favourable drag on inflation. The shift in thinking on Aussie rates combined with the shock NZ hike have already driven Aud/Nzd down from 1.15

USA Biscuit Boy 19:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Have a good weekend all. Sure to be a blockbuster next week. Cant wait!

Sydney alimin 19:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
that's it for me today :) see u next week raden, see you guys!
zzzzZZZZzzzz

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin.
like you too. I was in front of monitor since morning to morning. LOL crazy and too bad..but...love chart so much..
will sleep total today like snake after eat maybe can not see sunset (still sleep) LOL..LOL..
see you next week all my friends here. have a nice week end.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Ldn 19:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GREENSPAN"S TESTIMONY on monetary policy before Congress next Feb 11-12 will be key for the dollar
rts

BEIRUT MK 19:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
close long eur at 1.2695
and reverse short at 1.2695 ahead of G7

thank you.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sydney Alimin..
since 7 months ago. ok if you like Forex, sometime you comeback there we can meet. ok? ask to smart FM (broadcasting there). ask them with yustin.

Perth AS 19:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
market is quite long Euro so any nod toward European concerns could see a big shakeout talk in the market

Rivonia PipPirate 19:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
For sale: Euros, in good cond. willing to let them go for $1.3 ea., send self addressed email to apply Thank you

Ldn 19:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW The most powerful trend signal currently
active on all the currencies is the
bearish one on the [AUD/NZD]. The signal
has been fairly consistent during the
last few sessions while prices have been
persistently dropping. The current
reading of 22 suggests that the market
has plenty of room to continue on its
current path for several days

Ldn 19:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
With a few hours left until the NY close it is unlikely that we will see much further development with those who have a position once again overwhelmingly short of Usd"s. MMS

Shelbyville MKT 19:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Have a good weekend forum

Sydney alimin 19:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
i saw the sun set and now i see the sun rises....what a life!
woohooo saturday, sleeping all day, happy trading everyone, enjoy the weekend

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 19:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
no text, problems with conversion the message says

Sydney alimin 19:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden: oh really? wow that's a surprise to me that you know makassar so well...how long have u been in there? are you working there or just visiting?
are you trading from the hotel? :)
yes i was previously and still am and will still be an equity trader as well, i like forex too, basically i want to trade everything as long as i can make money haha

BEIRUT MK 18:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
cut loss short gbpusd at 1.8350 at 1.8383
short usdchf at 1.2513 close at 1.2490
still holding long eur at 1.2672

thank you.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Toronto DR Unken Kat.
I have sent you via e-mail, about eur/usd complete update view. clear?

sydney Alimin,
Now I am in MGH Losari. Mks golden Hotel. often fishing to bili-bili amd malino. LOL
are you forex trader?

Ldn 18:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
IMF ON THE US As was leaked yesterday, the IMF has booted its US GDP forecast for 2004 substantially, to 4.6% from the 3.9% forecast published in September
rts

Det tm 18:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
US$ Index was mostly above 90 in Nov. Trade Data, its Decembers Trade Data that ought to reflect the bigger recent break. That's 1 week from today. Is'nt that what triggered USD/CAD last month?

Quezon Mailman 18:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Stubborn euro, really testing my patience. At this point, some profit taking has to unfold. It should start to correct by now and slide towards 1.2670 area.

SanFrancisco tg 18:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Also regarding flows for next week, note the Gold and currency futures flows have been HEAVY, meaning mucho hedging going on ahead of G7. Initial adjusting will be necessary.

Sydney alimin 18:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden, r u still there? thanks for the long term strategy for my comparison and consideration
i am from makassar city, south sulawesi
i didnt do any university study in indonesia, i didnt even finish my high school, i skipped the final year of high school and went to sydney and took my foundation studies, graduated from unsw in sydney

Global-View 18:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GVI 18:14 GMT February 6, 2004
I think he (Bush) is going to announce setting up a commission on Iraq (intelligence)

Ldn 18:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
There is a perception building in the fund community that the Australian economy might have already peaked as the moribund global economy is showing strong signs of waking up. Some analysts compare the Australian economy with the Canadian economy in that both economies were strong and pushing interest rates higher when the major economies
were struggling and easing monetary policy. The Canadian economy has peaked and the BOC has taken on an easing bias. Certain funds are starting to anticipate a change in cycles and are selling out of long AUD positions.

was on IFR earlier today

Memphis Charles 18:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
The upper left hand corner of the Sexy Bank display needs to start flashing red and staying red....

Livingston nh 18:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I have to Aussies Anonymous at NAB -- I am overcome with a need to short AUD/USD here --

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
toronto( Dr Unken Kat 17:50 GMT February 6, 2004
why no text?
ok I will send again. today I send twice

Memphis Charles 18:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
He's set to announce a new policy of CB intervention targeting Euro at .85

Memphis Charles 18:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Good one, Irish.

Ldn 18:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
News Bush Announcement At 18:30

SanFrancisco tg 18:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
haha, such an optimist Ibiza.

(GEP) - This is a spot where widespread neutrality is being established ahead of the weekend in pairs right in the middle of flow ranges.

(NH) gave a good interpretation earlier I thought. It looks like its been a non greenback selling scenario with attempts to pull up meeting a heavier hand with positions being protected. The surprise I think would be a G7 stance on strengthening the greenback, which is not going to happen.

Logic dictates further Euro appreciation next week, but with the positions being protected I will stay out at first to avoid any head shaking knee jerk the other way.

Chicago Irish 18:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Agreed Charles..At least BOJ put their money where our mouth is :-)

Livingston nh 18:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
jk - that's it - WIM- maybe an interview would do the trick - see if he still has the magic touch

Memphis Charles 18:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I know, I know - gutless wonders the whole bunch of 'em. I'll take the BOJ any day!

LAX-LGB SNP 18:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
san francisco TG - you've got mail !

Nassau QF (newb) 18:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
mistype: 1.723 = 1.2723

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 18:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
don't mind to short some eur/gbp here .6883

nyc jk 18:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
the secret formula for the strong dollar is Wim Duisenberg, bring him back and EUR will be at 1.10 in a heartbeat!

Ldn 18:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Charles...The G7 source also said that euro zone countries would not seek bank intervention to support the dollar.

"(Intervention) is an instrument to use to maintain credibility and only if exchange rates are out of line with fundamentals," he said.

Nassau QF (newb) 18:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Slow stochs are starting to point down on EUR/USD.
Have we now seen the top at 1.723?

B.A. BOCA 18:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Gaza// i would rather be the guy calling the help line than the one answering phone....

great week this week, unless a really threatening communique comes out, we'll see what the ECB is hidding behind twe 1,30 curtain. smoke and mirrors...

GL

Nassau QF (newb) 18:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Without inflation I doubt they'll raise interest rates.

Memphis Charles 17:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
If that's true Ldn, I wish they would go ahead and start nipping.

Nassau QF (newb) 17:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think the secret formula is inflation.

Chicago 17:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Do tell Livingston.....

Gaza Ibiza 17:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tg... I dont trade fundamental....but if I was to trade fundamentals there is nothing I find healthy in the US economy. The vast explosion in telecomunication while a blessing for the dot com millionaires in the 90's has more or less destroyed the need for the debit ridden, consume till your credit card tops US employee! Pick up the phone and dial up your microsoft help line...thats and indian gentleman in India picking up the the line! Jobs are being created, but not in the US..and that is the beauty of globalization .. kind of like self cannabalization...but please dont misunderstand...everyone still wants to lend the Yanks money for reasons I have yet to comprehend! Anyway I really dont know much about all this stuff, but its my simpleton interpretation of the brave new world!

Livingston nh 17:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Chicago - the Secret Formula for the STRONG Dollar Policy is missing at Treasury

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 17:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hi raden i received ur email .but there s only picture of you in your office , no text

Ldn 17:48 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
New York Lev the fact that intervention is mentioned in the reports just put out says that they are ready to nip it in the bud .

Chicago 17:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Agree with you Irish about the probablle outcome(s) being bad for the dollar but I don't think any further weakness in the dollar is going to "payoff" intime for the runnup to Novemeber. So why would they risk overplaying their position and allow the dollar to fall further?

SanFrancisco tg 17:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Gotcha Ibiza. Japan has assisted in keeping the greenback rebalancing somewhat orderly, and I think it safe to project a somewhat orderly and slow adjustment the other way. Both the US and Japan are in strong cooperation and now, as I outlined some points the other day, Japanese economics are finally benefitting and the cross flow will continue. Europe and China played with fire and the benefit was temporary, now they are getting burned. Much better for all if they operate above board instead of through economic using and tampering with international currencies, governments, and economics. There would be more booming cities such as Hong Kong.

New York Lev 17:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
What do you think, will we see massive profit taking before the trading stops?

Alb emm 17:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
RBA may signal Monday at the quarterly policy statement that it has a lower propensity to raise interest rates given the cooling housing market and could signal that inflation risks are cooling. Aussie to soften on the crosses as interest rate expectations likely to ebb and some calling for the next rate hike in June or later.
age.news.

Chicago Irish 17:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Chicago:Think external level of dollar's value overseas is very low on the radar of most American voters while jobs and health care are very high on said radar.GWB has no intention of being a one-termer like his dad and recent polls show him trailing Kerry in a head to head contest,either way bad for dollar.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sydney alimin
btw where is location you from in INA? and from what's university in Indonesia?. I am from Ganesha 10 Bandung (ITB).
Long term trade :

If we see weekly candle there is bearish engulfing. That’s mean will down so far below 1.2000. But don’t forget that this move down so far is corection type of up movement from 1.1100 to 1.2910. We can play in this corection before get 1.3170. Ideal bottom before move up to get 1.3170 is from low 1.2210 or 1.1837 or 1.1737. You can try buy at that numbers with tight stp and if price still break 1.1760 that’s better wait and see to get confirmation again price will move down again or make swing only.

Trade Strategy :

• Buy at 1.2210 for target 1.3170 with stp 1.2190
• Buy at 1.1837 for target 1.3170 with stp 1.1817
• Buy at 1.1760 for target 1.2370 with stp 1.1740
• Sell at 1.3170 for target 1.2500 with stp 1.3190

Quezon Mailman 17:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I feel it is retracement time for the USD any moment from now, with some short covering for the greenbk.

Ldn 17:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Chicago true most on Bloomberg suggest the same thing .

Gaza Ibiza 17:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
On the other hand if the US wants the asian to keep picking up the tab! Then is it possible to let the $/Y higher and euro/usd lower! isnt it fun discussing such things even if we knew exactly what the statement would say..i doubt i would know what to do with it!

Sydney alimin 17:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden, what's your long term strategy again for eur/usd pair?TIA

Chicago 17:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think this G7 will be an anti-climax. The statement is not going to call for a dollar reversal but neither will it convey a benign neglect for the dollar. Regardless of what the pundits say I do not think the administration wants to see further dollar weakness -they do not want the level of the dollar to become an election issue. Regardless of the economic benefits of a gradually weakened dollar the I believe the electorate will equate a weaker dollar with a weakened nation. FWIW.

Ldn 17:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Market talk March rate cut is still on for the BOC

Ldn 17:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Aside
from the curious nature of two out of three wire services having a Rome dateline
on the G7 source story, another oddity is that the source blames Paul O'Neill
for muddling the message of the communique after the Dubai meeting
Ifr

Ldn 17:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Credibility Of G7 Source Questioned]

Gaza Ibiza 17:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
tg---I only read one thing in that statement if that is their stance and included in the statements..its a pretense for overt intervention if they consider it a problem! but Im sure im wrong as I dont know anything in general regarding such meetings except that the foooooooood is delicious!

Quezon Mailman 17:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Bought USD/CHF at 1.2335. Stop 1.2300.

Livingston nh 17:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - maybe the EUR and even the JPY get a little help next week from the US bond market -- uncertainty about the election may start - (example - Persons employed under BUSH The First GREW by 1.106 mio from Nov '91 to election '92 but too slow for economy - the growth from Jan 2003 to today is only 1.119 mio) // the Fed follows the Bond Market so if rates start rising the Fed won't be too far behind

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 17:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Can I see 105.05? hahaha

USA Biscuit Boy 17:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Could be ML. They will have to use some pretty strong language or the dollar could fall another 10% rather quickly. However I think after the meeting the MOF will be in again with their fresh reserves waiting in the wings.

SanFrancisco tg 17:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Ibiza - clearly the European G7 position is one of complete B-S. The greenback has been far out of balance, drastically overheated, for way too long to the benefit and advantage of the Eurozone.

It is not only the right of the US to simply correct the imbalance, which was created prior to 2000, but a priority for global economics.

The economic warfare and propoganda coming out of the EU is incredibly transparent. In reality, the EU needs to fix its structural and political imbalances.

Moscow Hawk 17:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Just come back to see EUR/USD eventually break 1.2630-60. There was something in the air this morning. First good sign for the euro was EUR/JPY above 133.50 and the major that it hold pivotal 1.2500-20 zone I indicated this morning.

Next mid term target is 1.2850-00. I do not know whether we have seen the low for the year in EUR/USD (there is good chance) but currently euro looks strong mid term and preferred tactic is buying dips.

beirut jb 17:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Gaza Ibiza 17:13 GMT

tanks,

the reaction of the market on G7 statement is the only thing wich count

so we will know monday, but at least we will have less nervous and choppy market after it

GL GT

Bratislava MB 17:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Does somebody know when are the first oficial statements due from G7? thanks

ICT ML 17:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Looks like we see euro at 1.3000 monday and 1.3500 friday then if that is the extent of their message..

Ldn 17:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Speaking ahead of a meeting of G7 finance ministers, the source said euro zone countries were worried that fresh euro gains against the dollar would damage their economic recovery
"Europe will say that given the circumstances...a further appreciation of the euro would constitute a problem. Excessive movements create worries," he said, declining to be named

Gaza Ibiza 17:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Speaking ahead of a meeting of G7 finance ministers, the source said euro zone countries were worried that fresh euro gains against the dollar would damage their economic recovery.
"Europe will say that given the circumstances...a further appreciation of the euro would constitute a problem. Excessive movements create worries," he said, declining to be named.
European countries will therefore urge the United States to curtail its expansive monetary and budget policy and not rely on other countries to finance the U.S. deficits, the source said.
"The U.S. says that to reduce the U.S. imbalance there must be more growth in the rest of the world...We say yes, but this in itself won't reduce the U.S. imbalance," said the source.
"The U.S. imbalance is a U.S. problem. There must be policies to reduce the public debt and increase private savings. .. It is unthinkable that Europe should increase its internal demand to such a level as to compensate for U.S. imbalances."
Europe was also unhappy with developments in certain Asian countries, which failed to take on board the G7 finance ministers' call at their last meeting in Dubai in September for more currency flexibility, the source said.
G7 officials said the Dubai message was aimed at urging Asian economic powers China and South Korea to stop fixing their currencies so tightly to the falling U.S dollar.
"We wanted to widen the field of flexibility," said the source, adding that while the euro and sterling rose after the Dubai meet, the Bank of Japan continued to put a brake on the yen and the Chinese yuan remained steady.
"The problem we have is how to meet the Dubai objective given that with China the policy of public declarations does not work. Private conversations work," said the source.
"If (currency) adjustments are not happening on a widespread basis then the strategy of public appeals cannot carry on."
The source said the final G7 statement from Boca Raton would not give any indication of desired currency direction, but would be as unambiguous as possible.
Earlier on Friday, French Finance Minister Francis Mer said the markets had not understood the full Dubai message and added that G7 ministers would have to find a new wording to get their message across.
The G7 source also said that euro zone countries would not seek bank intervention to support the dollar.
"(Intervention) is an instrument to use to maintain credibility and only if exchange rates are out of line with fundamentals," he said.

Rivonia PipPirate 17:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Re my 17:08, sorry, just my third wife tossing a stale piece of KFC to the dog.

Quezon Mailman 17:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Fellow contributors, is it risky to have a floating position over the weekend considering the outcome of the G-7 meeting? Would you rather square or not take any position pending the conclusion of the meeting. thanks

Ldn 17:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate only if it lands on you the chicken not the sh..

Rivonia PipPirate 17:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
A chicken just flu passed my window, should I be worried? TIA

Ldn 17:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Chicago
drudge.com are doing an article on it very worrying now also BBC

SanFrancisco tg 17:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
The trend for US data in 2004 has been consistend with GDP expectations .. less than expected (or in comparison to 2003, but still good). Initial activity has been a knee jerk reaction to the expectation followed by confirmation of underlying result.

Ldn 17:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan, Trichet Seen Working On G-7 Statement
newswires

Chicago 17:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
This Avian Flu is getting alot of "air-time" in Asia and to some extent in Europe, but hardly any in the US. Given the jump from birds to pigs the next stage of a jump to humans is only a matter of time. Apparantly pig immunology is very similar to that of humans. Potentially more infectious than SARS.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd.. be carefull with this situation.
1.8491-1.8526 is very potential as top extreme area to get 1.7780. you can sell now with stp at 1.8546 to get 1.7780

Memphis Charles 17:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT.... it spewed all over me. Not doing that great.... been short EUR, but I've been slowly re-adjusting and almost have it worked out.

HK Kevin 17:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, just exchange ideas. sarasota jf is one of my respected participant in this forum and providing good market information for us.

Ldn 17:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HANOI (Reuters) - Two more people died in Vietnam of bird flu, taking Asia's death toll Friday to 18, as a U.N. agency said tests revealed the virus in pigs, a potentially disturbing development that highlights the risks to humans

A bit of a worry never mind the employment date , that cant kill you

Quezon Mailman 16:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Yen is as good as a guy who have taken in tranquilizer.

sarasota jf 16:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
kevin my saying that doesnt refer to you in anyway - it simply refers to them bringing their bat to the game monday - regardless of the outcome

Ldn 16:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent in January to the lowest level in more than two years as companies added just 112,000 new jobs
The jobless rate fell 0.1 percentage point last month to the lowest level since October 2001, when it was 5.4 percent, the Labor Department said Friday. January's rate matched the 5.6 percent posted in January 2002

not too bad when you look at it again

Shelbyville MKT 16:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dallas

HK Kevin 16:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 16:52 GMT, well said. China will probably be the target for not sharing the burden.

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
OK MKT. I requested your email from Jay. I guess he will send you an email so that you will have my email address.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I think jf meant MOF commit with their "intervention money"..... not challenging you. no worry.

HK Kevin 16:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 16:43 GMT, just my thinking. I am also trading with my real money.
Will cover my long USD/CAD from 1.3272 near 1.3330 if seen, s/l below today's low.

Livingston nh 16:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
G& meeting - Treas Sec Snow needs two heads - one for the media about the wonderful jobs number and one for his counterparts about a not too strong USD policy// Britain's rate hike means they can't cry about the Pound's level and the Canadians have seen some correction because they have cut rates - so the EUR guys and the Japanese want help but they don't want the US to reduce its imports // probably some flexibility language aimed at China and some stability language for the EUR and JPY // not USD positive given the market's reaction to such "good" employment figs

ICT ML 16:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Charles, you do any good today? is the Coke can shaken enough?!...LOL

Quezon Mailman 16:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
At this point, either buying USD/CHF 1.2320's or selling the EUR 1.2720's is not a risky trade.

PAR 16:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
High value of GBP and high UK interest rates will start to hurt UK economy. Car factories are getting already into trouble.

Sydney alimin 16:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
thx ML, that's understandable :) everyone just wants to have a break and enjoy their profit monies (hopefully :) )

Memphis Charles 16:48 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
It is open during the weekend.

Sydney alimin 16:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden: yup thief=pencuri
i havent gone home for over 2 years...have been staying in australia since my foundation studies year back in 1997

ICT ML 16:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin....yes, but few people hang out during weekends...but you might try...you never know

Sydney alimin 16:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
is this forum also open during the weekend? are there people discussing forex? sorry for these stupid sounded question, i just joined the forum about a week ago...nice forum btw...good on you people

sarasota jf 16:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
kevin - noone can predict that way too hard - mof/ boj will the first person to be awake and try to explain their opinion and what in their mind the statement says - then commit their real money at some point

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin.
sorry my vocab is poor.
about "tier" i mean "pencuri= tief (thief)?" what's in English? please corect me.

Sydney alimin 16:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden, i can understand your frustration...i am frustrated too sometimes with things going on over there, very complicated..oh well as long as i can trade happily and make money and be good that's enough

Chicago 16:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Indian central bank was a big buyer of sterling a few weeks ago. They were building FX reserves in order to get a favourable S&P debt rating. I think sterling topped the day before the debt rating announcement was made. Just a hunch, but with the profits they are sitting on, I would not be surprised if there are now sellers on any sterling rally. FWIW.

HK Kevin 16:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 16:29 GMT, what will be the price action of EUR next Mon after the G7 meeting. May be a spike up to take out weak short and Shanghai bc come in to contain the down trend. I still don't think those followers bought up EUR before the meeting will win so easily. (big traders bought options to protect their short spot positions in advance)

Shelbyville MKT 16:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas: are you happy with your forex dealer?? if so how about emailing me his name and number

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sydney Alimin.
they made me m_a_d !!! money people monsters. sorry..this is my emotion and not relevan with this forum content.

Ldn 16:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy over the newswire but thin it could be for real

Shelbyville MKT 16:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
SH: The current spot Can. price is .7535 My forex quote is 1.3285-1.3290

USA Biscuit Boy 16:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn is this ECB selling confirmed or just another rumor????? Didn't think they would be on til way above 1.3.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
nobody wants to risk yen crosses.....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin.
ya.. Iam pure indonesia (Jawa Solo).
about election I am more care of forex chart.
huh..many coruptors in my country. Too bad mentality. I think better as forex pips tier than coruptors. :-( RIGHT?
I must be pips forex tier than coruptor. sorry ya !!

Belgrade Knez 16:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 16:06 GMT February 6, 2004

Market open at 21:00 GMT on Sunday and closing at 21:00 GMT on Friday.

There are no closing in between those days/times.

Ldn 16:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
London dealers
note talk that the ECB sold EUR/USD at the 1.2720 level

ICT ML 16:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
JF.....Thanks very much...I KNEW it....it died too easy.

sarasota jf 16:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
u remember the day gbp topped at 22 or something like that few weeks ago- and some m.e sellers came in - same people back just above 1.85 and 1.2740 in eur - gl

ICT ML 16:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
JF....I'm here...you got something ?

slv sam 16:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
IMHO any dip in euro is good opportunity to buy and accunulate for next target 1.31 level.GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd when at 1.2701
Middle term trade :

For middle term trade , eur/usd test 1.2720-37 area as a extreme top after show you number 1.2655. Ideally from this level price move down so far and seen will get 1.2215-10. But please forget about 1.2215 if 1.2782 show you. hat number is potential as a top for minor cyclic and potential become top of corection for long term phase to get major corection of weekly chart at 1.2210 as a first target or 1.1837 is second target or 1.1760 as extreme target. But if 1.2930 be broken before get 1.2210 better wait to think for buy because strong up will come.

Until now price still no give me information will strong up, but now price is on the key level to get strong up for middle term or down trend for middle term too.

Trade Strategy :

• Sell at 1.2735 to get 1.2240 with stp at 1.2755
• Buy at 1.2215 to get 1.2300 with stp at 1.2200

For long term trade still not be changed (still valid).

Gen dk 16:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd when at 1.2701
Short term trade :

Because 1.2655 have shown that’s mean is confirmation to get 1.2735. Be carefull with 1.2735 because this number is very potetntial climax buying and can give move down so far. Now price is at the target resistant major for middle term trade. But for short term trade is no problem to get 40-50 pips from this number.

Be carefull if price show you 1.2757 that’s mean price will get 1.2782 as an ideal top, but if show you 1.2795 that’s mean we can forget number 1.2215 because if show you 1.2782 price will make new high at 1.2957 and 1.2997 as a resistant.


Trade Strategy :

• Sell at 1.2735 for target 1.2586 with stp at 1.2757
• Sell at 1.2782 for target 1.2630 with stp at 1.2802
• Sell at 1.2957 for target 1.2907 with stp at 1.2977
• Sell at 1.2997 for target 1.1940 with stp at 1.3017

Shelbyville MKT 16:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I did a quick price from memory. It might not be correct

la saint3 16:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden ...
what do you think of usd/jpy??

Shelbyville MKT 16:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
1.3335

sarasota jf 16:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ict-ml around?

Dallas GEP 16:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Aussie is starting to come my way!!!

Dallas GEP 16:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Alim. yes the market closes the same time each day BUT there are some platforms that close early on friday like GEEFEETEE @ 2:00 for example.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
oops, forgot to change the handle at home.

Fort Pierce SH 16:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trying to find out how to get the the inverse of a futures price. My sofware dnloads the futures price say for the Candian Dollar. I need to convert it to a FX price.
Say the quote for the CD IS 7499 what would that be in FX PIRCE..Something like 132.40..just throughing that figure out there so you know what I am trying to do..
Thanks...
Steve

Gen dk 16:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

london p 16:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks andras

HK Kevin 16:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Re: USD/CAD it looks an expanding traingle is forming in the hourly chart with breakour level at 1.3250 and 1.3440

HK Kevin 16:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong nt 16:01 GMT, how are you? Better level than my 1.331. Re: USD/CAD it looks an expanding traingle is forming in the hourly chart.

Hong Kong nt 16:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 16:05 GMT -- when? 1.2220?

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 16:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
joined you nt, 1.2315.

Pecs Andras 16:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
london p 16:09 GMT February 6, 2004
It is because of the heavy buying of EUR/GBP cross

Sydney alimin 16:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hi raden, sorry for getting back a bit long to you too...was finishing my laundry at 3 am sydney time :(
btw i am an indonesian too living in australia
are you in indonesia at the moment?
how are things going over there? people must be ready for the general election eh?

london p 16:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP USDdoesnt seem to be joining the others with new highs lows intraday wonder why

london p 16:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP USDdoesnt seem to be joining the others with new highs lows intraday wonder why

Sydney alimin 16:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
thx Knez and GEP, so it is just the usual closing time everyday right? i saw somewhere before about market closes at 2 pm EST...or maybe my eyesight was blurry for staring too long at the monitor :) or perhaps that was for futures

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 16:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, will join you later in the chf.

hk ab 0.88 eur/gbp 16:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I got a point at 1.1140 aud/nzd......

Ldn 16:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dovish Aussie rate outlook should weigh on Aud/Nzd

Hong Kong nt 16:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HK KEVIN -- re: USD/CAD, square my early short at 73 too...

Quezon Mailman 16:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Euro seems to be toppish now. 1.2730/40 may still be within reach but shorting before that point is not a bad entry.

Hong Kong nt 16:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF -- long at 1.2320...

Gen dk 15:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 15:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Long small USD/CAD at 1.3273 for a quick trade.

phils VL 15:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
correction
eur/usd - new ell at 1.2719, s/l well abv 1.2775

PAR 15:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
UK consumer bankruptcies up 12% . At an alltime high.

phils VL 15:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hellooo folks... volatility expected today

eur/usd - limit sell 1.26 stopped out at 1.2639. New sell at 1.2619, s/l well abv 1.2675

usd/jpy - limit long 105.57 triggered, wl add to long below 30 if seen, s/l sub 105

SanFrancisco tg 15:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML - understood. The US could well have added jobs on artificial basis at the detriment of the infastructure as was done prior to 2000, but that has shown to be a detriment to the infastructure. I think we are on a realistic and solidly based repair and recovery.

Alb emm 15:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
One The AFR speculates that the RBA will hold off on interest rates to allow the housing market a soft landing, and can maintain this approach all the time Aussie strength provides a favourable drag on inflation. One thing that could well throw a spanner in the works is another dovish Aussie press article.

Quezon Mailman 15:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
buy USD/YEN at 105.45/50 stop 105.15.

ICT ML 15:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
TG....so far so good....but I got burned once...not happening again....LOL...as far as the JOB issue, I have all kinds of views on that (speaking as an employer anyway).....but would offend a large portion of my fellow American forum friends....so I won't mention them here.:-) (we get what we deserve)

SanFrancisco tg 15:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML - that's the hope of a certain crowd out there but Gspan won't do it twice, especially considering the whole mix of international conditions and affairs Imho. The method of repair seen will continue to confound his opponents and stimulate gains, just not at the pace everyone would like to see. I don't think idea of a fast pace of recovery, especially in jobs in the environment since 2000 is realistic, but the gears are working regardless eh?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd .
sell at area 1.2720-37 with stp 1.2757 for target 1.2215

beijing road 15:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Maybe GBF/CHf got top at 2.30 level, it seems daily reversed.

Dallas GEP 15:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
OK TG

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I curious eur/usd still will get 1.2215-10 as a bottom. price have tried move from 1.2644 but false, I think price give higher level at 1.2720-37 to get 1.2215-10.

SanFrancisco tg 15:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Greg - Let me get back to you on that in just a little bit, I have a fair sense but want to see some things transpire in the day first. Why don't you get my email from Jay again, I lost yours a while ago when my system crashed like the Super Bowl halftime show.

ICT ML 15:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
tg...one thing we can count on......Greenspeak will do the usual, and put it off until it becomes a real obvious problem to every talking head on CNBC......than he'll play catch up and hit us with 14 rate hikes in a 8 month time frame, killing off business borrowing and expansion again......like Summer of 96' I think it was......banks tightened up on us after being loosy goosy with the $$$$ for an extended period....caught us borrowers off guard.

So when it looks like that is going to happen sooner than later, the dollar should get a serious boost from yield players......in my view anyway......

nyc jk 15:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sam - I bet you weren't saying that yesterday when you went long EUR @ 1.2620 and it proceeded to crap out to 1.2515 lol.

Belgrade Knez 15:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 15:15 GMT February 6, 2004

Market close at 21:00 GMT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think eur/usd have get top area at 1.2720-37.
sell !!

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ALIM, different playtforms close at different times. Mine IE closes at 4:00 EST

slv sam 15:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
the ease in which US$ falls and rather some hesitation when it goes up tell us too much about the market strong negative sentiment for US$..stay short $ and make money!.GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Alimin
I still here, just go for a while for late dinner. LOL

ldn 15:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Euro will finish weekend lower possible low 1.26 area anyone else got a view on that.

ZP Nemo 15:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, if USD will gaps - UP only!:))

Hong Kong nt 15:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- will give a big kiss to my wife tonight...

Hong Kong nt 09:34 GMT January 31, 2004
HK AB -- my wife and i have derived some weekly ranges, EURGBP 0.6810-0.6910, EURJPY 13000-13400, GBPJPY 19100-19550, DJI 10400-10600...

Hong Kong nt 05:58 GMT January 31, 2004
HK AB -- aussie weekly range .7550-.7750

SIN spidey 15:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
has anyone seen this? Is it old?
=============
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said he is giving up the leadership of his Social Democratic Party to focus on running Germany, entrusting Franz Muentefering with reversing the party's decline in opinion polls ahead of 14 elections this year.

Sydney alimin 15:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
market closes at 2 pm right?

Dallas GEP 15:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
TG, haven't asked you yet. USD gaps UP over the weekend or DOWN?????

london cam 15:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP & Nottingham - Thks for your views

SanFrancisco tg 15:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Overall US unemployment rate has dropped one notch on this report. The slow job growth continues to partly reflect the internationally stale pace of recovery. Perhaps we don't see solid gains until multinationals have warrant to spend and it trickles down, and it should coincide some with Fed rate increase.

Nottingham 15:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
london cam 15:01 GMT:

I have 1.2780-90 as first cloud cuckoo level, followed by 1.2820...for swissy it 1.2230 odd then just under 1.22...gl gt

NYC YIPPEE 15:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
No mercy.

Dallas GEP 15:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
CAM 1.2730/40 would be my guess for the high.

ICT ML 15:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
YIPPEE....I was waiting for you to say that....LOL

So, do you think it goes in stronger still into G7 or pulls back a bit?

Dallas GEP 15:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Best number since DEC 2000 and they say farm payroll numbers were BAD???? BS!!!!

london cam 15:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
My little Euro contra trade was stopped out for 38 pips. ouch!Anyone expecting EURO to test 1.2770 resistance?

Nottingham 15:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 14:57 GMT:

Mostly revolves around patience, but I have managed to quantify that and emotion into hard numbers...gl gt

NYC YIPPEE 15:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
No mercy.

Dallas GEP 15:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BC said something very interesting yesterday in that since AT THE TIME usd was showing some strength, the G7 meeting's purpose may have been moot. NOW with the dollar bear run we have had, G7's effect could be of a more dramatic nature. RE: Usd/jpy, IF the MOF does allow for penetration of 105.00, they could always say they tried but they can't hold off the dollar bears by themselves so they need more cooperation. WHO KNOWS???? I think tho that we will certainly close somewhere around 105.70/75 which is my WAG

HK Kevin 15:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I decided to keep my short EUR/CHF positions overnight for 1.5550 and 1.5350 (if you are long term trader)after studying the chartts again. I should put confidence on myself. Re: USD/CAD now at 1.5250 as I said last night.

Ldn 14:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Investors At Risk As Tide Turns In High-Yield Currencies
A bloody accident is looming large in global bond and currency markets.
For more than a year now, investors have made easy money by borrowing U.S. dollars, Swiss francs or yen on the cheap to buy debt and other assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, the Swedish krona and even the euro.
But now they'd better watch out. Analysts say this strategy, best known as "carry trade," has led to a bubble that looks ripe to burst. There are good reasons for concern. For one, currency strength is starting to slow growth in economies such as Sweden, Canada and the euro zone, and central banks are starting to cut rates to spur activity. The Riksbank may cut rates from 2.75% as soon as Friday;
By contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates from a 45-year low of 1% at some point this year as the U.S. economic recovery gains steam. This means investors may be about to face a double whammy of lower returns - as some central banks cut rates - and higher costs - as the Fed tightens monetary policy. That would mark the reversal of a large-scale trend in carry trades, and history suggests this kind of correction often leads to bloodshed: Investors rush to the exits all at the same time, currencies plunge and panic selling sets in.
It's also very tempting to stay in these markets as long as possible. Borrowing dollars at 1% to lend to Australian banks, for instance, resulted in a gain of at least 38% in 2003 - some 4% from net coupon payments plus 34% from the Australian dollar's appreciation versus the U.S. dollar.

But some investors are already preparing for the worst.

Nic Poole, a fund manager with Camomille Associates, a $125 million hedge fund in London, has been buying derivatives that protect his portfolio against a possible stampede of investors fleeing high-yielding currency markets. To him, the key warning signs that a correction may take place soon were Fed suggestions that it may raise rates this year.

"The recent Fed comments put you on alert for a real change in rhetoric and policy," said Poole, who is using mostly currency options to protect part of his global portfolio of bonds, stocks and currencies. "There's still some upside left in carry trades, but we've started buying downside protection."

The first Fed signal came in December, when it downplayed worries about deflation; last week, the Fed weakened its commitment to keeping rates at historic lows by retiring a previous statement that rates would be low for a "considerable period."

Yet activity in currency derivatives markets suggests few investors are taking precautionary steps like Poole's.

Giovanni Pilliteri, an options trader at Deutsche Bank, says there has been more demand for options to buy these high-yielding currencies than to sell them. "Most people don't think a correction is imminent," he said, explaining that people are waiting for this weekend's meeting in Florida of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations.

Deutsche Bank is recommending that clients buy derivatives that protect against potential losses in what are popular carry trades: the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar; the New Zealand dollar versus the yen; and the British pound against the Swiss franc.
The correction in carry trades can also be an opportunity to profit - even before it takes place. To differentiate between them, Jalinoos recommends looking at what central banks are doing. A shift to easing policy is a green light to sell. The rationale: Yield chasers don't want to invest in countries where interest rates may be cut, so the moment they see a risk of policy easing, they shift to currencies that still offer the prospect of rising rates. So as some central banks begin cutting rates, the odds grow that investors will further inflate the bubble in the remaining high-yielding currencies.


Pecs Andras 14:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 14:51 GMT February 6, 2004
And thanks for your views

Pecs Andras 14:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 14:51 GMT February 6, 2004
Your trading system sounds interesting.
I do not trade a lot either weekly

hk ab 0.88 14:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I meant the game is not finished yet today.

Gtg, see ya all after "G7".

beijing road 14:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
we will see eur at 12710 tonight?

hk ab 0.88 14:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
look for a break of 1.1140 for aud/nzd.

Quezon Mailman 14:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think the dlr/jpy has a long way to go...

Do you mean long way to go down more? Anybody thinking to go long from around 105.50's now? thanks.

Nottingham 14:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 14:44 GMT:

So far only nzdusd but as I have said earlier, it's a no trade due to g7, as I would need to look for 6875/80 and I'm not concern it will be seen today...but interesting to note that back testing up to 5 years indicates that this trade will make money either today Monday or Tuesday (with possibly suitable additions for each day)...if you are still with me, it points to any big move out of G7 being usd + or else no move...I don't know if all that makes sense to you...fwiw swissy gets contra sig in about another 100 pips or so...gl gt

hk ab 0.88 14:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
geez, look at the carrier nzd.

the MOF has a good question today to solve.

bye, leave the office now.

melbourne farmacia 14:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP - missed a few orders myself today..

AUS Trader 14:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
NZD..... now only 80 pips to .7000........


HK Kevin 14:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Just closed short USD/JPY from 106.62 at 105.53. Please don't fall after I closed the position.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I think the dlr/jpy has a long way to go...

I try some "high interest deposit" today... just want to know good how they work.

pity that I should make more in dlr/jpy.

FW CS 14:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
First Euro daily fractal cleared for now still needs to close above this point 1.2655 (1/27 high) and then the big fractal high at 1.2770 (the 1/23 high) before we can talk about another Euro bull. Closing above the 20 day MA (1.2566) will help the Euro bull case today. Also broke out of the daily wedge or triangle today so if 1.2655 can hold on a closing basis may leave that upper fractal exposed later next week.

Van jv 14:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
From Bloomberg:"...............
The increase in production and orders suggests that the recovery in Germany, which relies on exports for one third of gross domestic product, hasn't yet been harmed by the euro's 16 percent increase against the dollar in the past year.

Bargaining in Boca

The European currency rose as much as 0.7 percent to $1.2638 after the U.S. Labor Department said the world's biggest economy added a smaller-than-expected 112,000 jobs last month.

Today's report is at least the fifth this week to show that growth in the dozen euro nations is accelerating. That may make it harder for Europeans to argue for action to stem the dollar's slide when finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven nations meet in Boca Raton, Florida, from today.

``The concern of the Europeans is probably not as great anymore as it was a month ago,'' said Klaus Baader, Lehman Brothers Inc.'s senior European economist in London. ``I don't expect anything new'' from the G-7 meeting.

HK Kevin 14:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi hk ab. Trailing stop of USD/CAD at 1.3351 triggered last night. Short again today at 1.3402 and closed earlier at 1.3108, but it falls to 1.326? 2 mins after I closed the position. Aslo short USD/JP at 106.62 Qindex's level, ready to take profit now. May close half short EUR/CHF position today.

Pecs Andras 14:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry,
This question was meant for Nottingham


Do you see any good contra for today?

PAR 14:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Ultimately US job destruction is going to be very bad for US stock markets.

Quezon Mailman 14:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys! just booked 21pips (EUR 1.2667 after breakout, sold at 1.2688) just to be sure before it retraces.

Ldn 14:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Rally Extends But Risk Is To The Downside

slv sam 14:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
the break of 1.2350 in $/CHF is very very bad! euro is at 1.27 level today and new all time high next week? i hope.GT

Miami OMIL 14:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
This is interesting eur/usd daily pennant has been broken and holding pattern. This bolds well for Euro bulls but I was not expecting this until after the G7 meeting. After the smoke clears at the end of the day we will see if these gains by eur/usd can sustain the fear of the G7 meetings. (/;->

Livingston nh 14:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I'm listening to the Labor Secretary who is spinning this employment number - unbelievable //example - announcer says this 112k gain is the best in three years - well last Jan the number was 158k (of course tht's revised away today) // anybody trying to trade headlines must be psychic

Newcastle GH 14:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Fib traders should be very happy with a lot of the turning points today.

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia. you may be right RE: .7710. Today has not be a great day for me so far to say the least BUT I am very happy for those that were short USD.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
closed my eur/chf early again!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
My overbought levels don't come in till 7800...for some reason it has been left behind by nzd which does happen to be in overbought range...gl gt


Reason is: rate hike nzd but not aud. simple.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
MOF, if u dare, u should call for a join intervention now, otherwise, u can't hold this 105 for sure.

And what's more is NZD is DEFINITELY being carried up to here......

people short dlr/jpy wihile long nzd/jpy now
it tries to amaze all people.

Pecs Andras 14:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 14:36 GMT February 6, 2004
Do you see any good contra for today?

Sydney alimin 14:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
is raden still here?

Nottingham 14:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:34 GMT:

My overbought levels don't come in till 7800...for some reason it has been left behind by nzd which does happen to be in overbought range...gl gt

Pecs Andras 14:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ab
Nice short on cable it was!
Congrats

beijing road 14:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
famacia: you have always made the great calls on turning period......hats off to you.

Nottingham 14:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 14:28 GMT

Mostly I play contra based on daily prices so I don't trade as much as some, on average 1 trade per pair weekly/biweekly, though recently due to the volatility it has been a little more...I strongly feel that overtrading is the downfall of many of those that have lost on forex...the system I have suits me because it is stress free, though that probably comes from the fact that I know it works I suppose...gl gt

melbourne farmacia 14:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
have a feeling we might see 0.7710 ish Aud/Usd soon.

Dallas GEP 14:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Well that Aussie short seems a little ill timed to say the least. .7700 is a HARD level tho so we will see my friends.

Pecs Andras 14:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Any idea how far CAD will go?

Dallas GEP 14:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tell you what, the MOF boys are just uncanny in their ability to play the market. We saw yesterday how it looked like they wanted to establish that 105.70/80 level as a base. Then JUST prior to data release, they BID some it appears to get price up high enough so that when the dust clears it STILL is around this 105.70/80 base area. UNREAL!!!!!

ICT ML 14:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP....I hear you......get frustrated at times with her......(people say she acts like ME)........

anyone tempted to buy soem $Y for kicks?

And also, strange that euro has held its gain, while gbp is retracing a bunch of it.........go figure that one...

hk revdax 14:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 14:21//i am flat on my short $ and might even want to go long with a tight stop. However, my past experience, and very painful experience i would say, suggests one should not 'play around' in the mkt. Either you go in seriously or don;t play at all. GL and GT.

sarasota jf 14:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
for anyone interested ranges
eurusd 1.2512/1.2685
yen 105.57/106.80
cad 1.3275/1.3413

Hong Kong nt 14:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- guess GBP 1.850, CHF 1.235, EUR 1.270 may hold today...

melbourne farmacia 14:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Road - I won't take any credit for this 06/02 as the day is not over yet, plus monday should clear things up etc.. gt

PAR 14:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Result of BUSH corporate and dividend tax cuts is that US companies are only interested in profit maximisation and reduce headcount and/or sent jobs abroad. A lower dollar is not going to solve this problem.

Dallas GEP 14:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML. it may not seem like it at times, but your family is much more important than the money. You are a very good trader, you can always make money. A family is irreplaceable. Hold them close to you, they are the greatest gifts we could ever hope for.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
close gbp 1.8456 for 53 pips. decide next move later.

Nottingham 14:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 14:18 GMT:

I would guess so on all except yen maybe...using a system that has not failed me once in a couple of years now for aussie and applying it to nzdusd, this too has peaked (technically high can be just above 6950 somewhere but you would guess it would have been done during the panic)...the only reason I'm not short is due to day before G7 and since my target might not be hit today, I can't risk going in...gl gt

london cam 14:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:14 GMT February 6, 2004

Done that myself in the past. Sometimes it worked very well other times had both stops blown out, the latter being more common in my case. Its a reasonable strategy especially if you have the equity to enter both positions with good sized lots and react quickly when you have a good profit.

What I personally go for now is playing the overeaction. Doesn't always work but then again what does!?!?

GL GT

SA getFX 14:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Just a note - Euro retrace to triangle upper t/l...

ICT ML 14:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
well GEP, only reason I closed out my possies' is because my oldest kid missed her ride to school and I had to leave to take her......so that ride to school was worth the difference of 72 pip loss and a 100 pip gain on cable.......unreal.

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sold Aussie @ .7680 (sell order)

Nottingham 14:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 14:12 GMT

What I can't believe is that almost every economist on the planet predicted excellent numbers after last month's shock...you would think lessons would be learnt...clearly not it seems judging by the reaction, although the upcoming G7 clouds the issue as might factor into some trades made today and exaggerate moves...gl gt

hk revdax 14:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone could make an educated guess if $ has done all the ranges today?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
take my 24 pips in eur/chf first.

ZP Nemo 14:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
When started G7? May be, guys will say any words about movements before meeting?:)))

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
phew, the cable is ok now.

will take profit if it can reach 1.84 later.

Dallas GEP 14:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Just prior to data had I been thinking in addition to my eur/usd short (which stopped out @ -30), I should have taken a dollar negative possie with GBP/USD long so I could have been covered both ways. A 30 pip stop on both gbp.usd long and eur/usd would have allowed the pound possie to run and of course the eur/usd would have stopped out as it did. I had mentioned this before but now I feel like a DA for not doing it!!! LOL

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I said if we worked on m/t bc recommendation. not s/t.

sarasota jf 14:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
some stale long stops in usdyen thru 75 - this could very well end up where it all started on the day - and restart monday

Buenos Aires Argenfx 14:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
To DALLAS Gep: Any ideas on Eur ? TIA.

Sydney alimin 14:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
blah even he** is censored? :

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy almost succeed in trend reversal in 1 take.

Ldn 14:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab are you saying sell aud,

I have gold at 404

Sydney alimin 14:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
someone pls explain why usd is diving to the bottom of censored??
:) i am happy though, took long position on euro/usd 10 minutes before the party began

Livingston nh 14:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham - the payrolls aren't showing improvement - inside the data there are huge adjustments - the weekly unemployment claims in Jan showed high lay-offs in construction but BLS shows an increase in new jobs for construction and retail didn;t add as many jobs in Nov and Dec so the Jan fig shows positive cause the not hired didn't have to be fired// the trend is still very weak (oh yeah all the cheerleaders that saw gains in the Fall NFP had those gains revised away)

hk revdax 14:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 14:04 //Yes, i am closing out my short $/CHF before the end of today.

Ldn Mvs 14:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
revised number was from +1k ---> +16k

AlexVA Dennis 14:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
8:32am 02/06/04 U.S. PAYROLL REVISIONS SHOW 81,000 FEWER JOBS

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
if bc comment is concerned for m/t, this aud bounce is a golden chance.

Gold is still below 400...

ICT ML 14:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
no Road, I closed everything before the data time.....so I made good $$$ on gbp/jpy and lost some on cable still up a good return for week....could have been the other way......

Nottingham 14:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Jan Dec Nov
Nonfarm employment (000&aposs)130,155 130,043 130,027
Monthly Change (000&aposs) 112 16 83
Goods-producing 7 -16 12
Construction 24 13 17
Manufacturing -11 -27 -7
Service-providing 105 32 71
Retail trade 76 -41 -26
Professional/Business -22 45 44
Government -13 -5 -16

Seems that retail forms major part of number

Ldn 14:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone know the revised number from last month ????

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf go!!!

Kevin, want to close it tonight?!

Dallas GEP 14:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
out at BE on Pound

Nottingham 14:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 14:00 GMT:

Now that payrolls finally showing improvement, it could be clearout attempt by big guns prior to them moving usd higher from nxt week? ie get everyone stopped out before the real move up in usd?

beijing road 14:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML : you must have made tons of dollars on the cable, right?

london cam 14:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Shorted EURUSD to play the potential overeaction. However, not over confident given the disproportionate spike in gold

Ldn 14:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
G7 positioning now

Ldn 14:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Any view on G positioning now?

slv sam 14:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 13:59 /
good observation. me think below 105 today is a possibility.GT

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Revdax. how are you?
Are you kidding, or u really don't know?

How's the Macau index right now?

Dallas GEP 14:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
got 1.8480 long on GBP trying to scaplh back to 1.8510

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
cd, would like to put it in a m/t trade. but if it touches the breakeven stop by ?NY close,I will be flat.

hk revdax 14:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab//Why is the $ dropping?

ICT ML 13:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
well now we know why they bid $Y so high up there in ASIA don't we.....

USA Biscuit Boy 13:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Yay got all my euro shorts filled right up to 1.2663. GL and GT. Nice day :)

Chambery FR JFB 13:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:55 GMT February 6, 2004
Thx... Am even happier than that, as I also closed a short CHF from 1.2490 @1.2400. WOW again :-)

Joburg cd 13:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ab what's your target on the cable short?

Moskow 13:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
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slv sam 13:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
patience always pays!GT

Nottingham 13:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Max projected high today for nzdusd according to my new data :o) is between here and 6950...this is my first attempt using my sys so buyer beware...or seller in this case :o) gl gt

Dallas GEP 13:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Congrats JFB. very happy for you.

Van jv 13:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Traders expect the dollar to rise further after the U.S. Labor Department releases employment data at 1:30 p.m. London time. U.S. companies may have added 175,000 jobs last month, the most in three years, according to the median estimate of 69 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.......so , the believe in the strong growth is shattered , bonds are sharply up, possibility of FED raising rates in June remote and G7 may say nothing suportive for USD......Seems overdone, however...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
put all the things into m/t pocket.....

the eur is really my "not good" pair....

Chambery FR JFB 13:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed long gbp @1.8515, wow!! let's call it a day and a week!!! Have a nice week-end all :-) CU on Monday...

Livingston nh 13:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
The household survey numbers are all screwed up in the Release by DOL

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
short cable 1.8509

New York Lev 13:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
will euro break 1.2700?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Andras and Kevin, what worries many things are that ECB has the right reason to concern now over the weekend.
mkt is showing them what they want to "see".

beijing road 13:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras : For me, as long as EUR hold above 1.2490, it is positive.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I look eur/usd will get 1.2737 because 1.2655 have shown

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
many news are out,,,,,

HK Kevin 13:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, it's glad to see tht USD/JPY eventually responds to negative dlr news. 

Pecs Andras 13:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 13:45 GMT February 6, 2004
farmacia is very good, but nothing has changed as long as we are below 2660

beijing road 13:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Today must be my lucky day. 2/3 eur orders has been filled, at 12520 and 12515. Unbelievable , i got day low price.

Miami OMIL 13:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Let the smoke clear folks that is what I always say. (/;->

beijing road 13:45 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
famacia: nice call on Feb 6 as EUR turning period, hats off 2 you.

Dallas GEP 13:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML, hope u have cable long still my friend.

GA TJ 13:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think this NFP report induced spurt will be short lived. How many traders will be willing to enter new positions going into the this weekends clamjambake? For me, just sitting back watching things develop.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd 1.1100 protection is stronger than expected...

sideline.s

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden, do u think this spook an intervention now?

Lahore Rk 13:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Very Good session ahead of US
GL/GT

Dallas GEP 13:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Yep, that was actually good data, it was just worse than expected. Perceptions are REALITY!!!!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
yen will be a fun play now....

my eur/aud also looks good, couldn't imagine how easy all the orders can be filled wiht one spike.

Melbourne DC 13:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
high yielders coming to 1.8425 n 0.7675

SF MRZ 13:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dollar bought on rumor for good numbers, sold when facts are out. FWIW

syd al 13:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
thks to all for the updates

syd al 13:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sold oz 0.7650 s/l 0.7685 target 7565

Nottingham 13:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
After children done with panic euro goes back to mid 1.25...the numbers are afterall the best in a year even if worse than expected on side of payrolls (% actually better than expected) gl gt

Warwick Sat 13:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
syd al 13:33 GMT February 6, 2004 ... 07648-53

syd al 13:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
pecs thanks mate

RKG Bangalore 13:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
syd al - aud trading 0.7650/52 now

Ldn Cashman 13:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
al Aud is 0.76 49/52

New York Lev 13:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ooops

Dallas GEP 13:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Got stopped out on short EUR/USD with 30 pip loss

Pecs Andras 13:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
syd al 13:33 GMT February 6, 2004
7650/55

syd al 13:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
guys my ticker has crashed...any idea where aud/usd is?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
fill one more eur/aud short 1.6512

Dallas GEP 13:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
number 112 worse than expected

Pecs Andras 13:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
My god
what is going on here?

Pecs Andras 13:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
112K
5.6%

Belgrade Knez 13:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

5.6%
112k

GENEVA FHR 13:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
NFP + 112000

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
data....

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
filled short eur/aud 3 lots.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
number is out a bit early

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
changed order from 1.65 to 1.6480 short eur/aud.

New York Lev 13:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Is the numebr coming out at 8:30 EST? Which source is that fastest to deliver the number?

Helsinki iw 13:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Price action indicates market is positioned for a good number.
Path of least resistance may be for a softer dollar. Well, we´ll
know soon.

Dallas GEP 13:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
+150 K is probably neutral +200K or better and USD spurts probably below 150K and usd gets beat up probably.

New York Lev 13:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think that if the unemployment data is negative the dollar will fall to a much bigger extent compared to its pottential gain if the data is positive. What you think?

sing albert 13:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
it was quiet.....too quiet

Dallas GEP 13:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Well SOMEONE has decided to buy more USD/JPY

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
too bad.. they are still strangling the jpy crosses.

syd al 13:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
wots the view for eur on a number ard 200k?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
it's either preparing a precipitcious dive or strong rebounds.
both players have stand out on this .6830 line fight.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
yup for s/t.

Pecs Andras 13:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ab
what do you see in that pair now?

Dallas GEP 13:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
twitchy, twitchy!!! LOL

dubai j 13:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
that should be 365K

Melbourne DC 13:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi HK ab
Have you turned bull 0.88 to bear 0.66 on eurgbp?

Shelbyville MKT 13:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: Feb. scrap steel prices were posted up 35.00 a ton yesterday. In August I was selling #2 shearing for 78.00 a ton and glad to get that price. Today I can sell this item at 190.00 a ton. Stainless and copper have move also strongly. There's strong demand and heavy bidding for any scrap I own.

dubai j 13:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hearing rumour nfp +365

singapore roo 13:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
interbank s/l's below daily sppt of 7600 in aud/usd.....key lvl to watch is 7543....break here will see sharp decline towards 7500

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
just wonder why not many people eyeing the impt eur/gbp now

Pecs Andras 13:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Lunar
20 minutes

Dallas GEP 13:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
13:30

Bangalore RKG 13:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Unemployment numbers have been traditionally better in february over January and given this background, we could see the number today at 5.60% - which portends to be a dollar bullish factor!!!! FWIW

Belgrade Knez 13:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk lunar

13:30 GMT

cairo asamir 13:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
thks pecs andras , i think u might be right

hk lunar 13:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
guys, excuse the ignorance, how long till the NFP?

Pecs Andras 13:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
cairo asamir 13:03 GMT February 6, 2004
I think now the best trade is no trade before the jobs data.
But there are people around here who think otherwise :-)

cairo asamir 13:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hello every one ,, which transaction that seems to be safe for one to make now

Shelbyville MKT 13:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Good morning forum.

hk ab 0.88 13:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold keeps diving fwiw.....

cairo asamir 13:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
which transaction that seems to be safe for one to make now

Pecs Andras 13:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
You guys are brave with these shorts.
I think the will be a very important number, so even if it is good for you, the whipsaw at the announce ment will easily wipe out your 20 some stops
But it is your trade, good luck

Pecs Andras 13:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed the AUD short with 35 pips
Better be sidlined before the storm
I am up 170 pips for the week, so if nothing else comes in, it fine with me

Dallas GEP 12:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Seems like a place your bets time???? Well since this could swing pretty good on this number and there is no clear consensus on this I will go with current trend and short eur/usd here @ 1.2538 with stop above 1.2560 for the high 1.24's. Risk Reward on something like this is around 1:3 or maybe 1:2 so that is acceptable IMO.

Warwick Sat 12:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Raden_masandi, "zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz" means you are asleep, yet now you are awake again... ! GL>GT.. lol

hk ab 0.88 12:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
joined one lot with Raden 1.2537....
seldom trade eur these days.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sorry I have get mistake in typing in short term strategy :
Trade Strategy :

• Buy at 1.2437 to get 60 pips with stp at 1.2410

not sell at 1.2437 to get...

hk ab 0.88 12:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think if FED could surprise us by a 50 bp cut, then in the same way, they can surprise us by a 50 bp hike in the future.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sell eur/usd again at 1.2532

NYC NYC 12:48 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Good # would be no less than +150K.

nyc fxdh 12:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
If it is a good number ...125-300k the stock market could very well go down because the view the fed may tighten.. if small flat or down the dollar should get hit hard initially... either way doesnt look that good to me for the dollar

london p 12:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
thanks dallas schroder has just resigned as leader of his party still the leader of germany thoiough

Dallas GEP 12:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I believe data is out 13:30

Sydney2 12:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
how long for the data to come out?

Dallas GEP 12:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GOT my +20 PIPS on USD/CAD short and got out.

london p 12:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
what time are the numbers today please GMT thanks

Sydney bl 12:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex thanks

GVI john 12:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2520…$/yen 106.65
DJIA +24 pts… 10-yr 4.09%, -2bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
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Nottingham 12:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
You know, we still haven't filled the gap that happened after the last G7 last September (yen;114-111 or something lyk that)

Dallas GEP 12:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmmm....My mistake RE: USD/CAD it is actually moving right now. (LOL)

hk ab 0.88 12:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
If I am a jap exporter, will I risk not to short jpy here if a gap is possible on Monday?
....

may be MOF is confident that the gap will not be lowered than 105.

hk ab 0.88 12:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, Nope.

'cos when I was kid, my parents brainwash me that "playing stocks" in the young age make you commit suicide..... Thus, I was refrained from stocks.

hk ab 0.88 12:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, OIC....

That's why she has enough time to drill many skills in fx.....COOL.

Hong Kong nt 12:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- do you trade HS future/option?

Hong Kong nt 12:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 12:13 GMT -- she is a nothing-to-do accountant in a nothing-much-to-do department within a larger framework of nothing-good-to-do government...

Dallas GEP 12:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Just shorted uad/cad @ 1.3397. This is a techical trade based on over bought stochs. This is first layer. CADDY may still long howver BUT this is a good pivot point. It will move more during US session

hk ab 0.88 12:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Now I know why people always said that usually 90% people loses and those who can survive more than 3 years can usually continue with this business.

The trick is you need to gain "enough" experience to survive at least 2 m/t.

many got killed in between s/t's....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd flight will landing at 1.2499-85 and take passengers there to take off again to another numbers.
be carefull with 1.2499-85 maybe will get the battle there.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Belgrade Knez 12:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 11:35 GMT February 6, 2004

Thanks for the info. Sorry for late reply, was disconnected.
Can you just tell me what do you mean when you said "pans out"?

Thanks.

Livingston nh 12:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - for all the talk about weak vs. strong US employment figures consider that the "strong" employment figures of last Fall into the early December period did nothing to help the USD which fell consistently after Labor Day into the "surprise" weak employment figures on January 9 (exp +150k vs reality +1k) - the USD has not weakened // Conclusion - a strong employment number may not be USD positive

hk ab 0.88 12:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Note: it's "1.10000" not "1.11000"

hk ab 0.88 12:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I have placed an order at aud/nzd 1.1000 for massive buys.

Think the Rumour sale should be over and short term retracement is due.

hk ab 0.88 12:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
what's her original job?

Is she a banker? LOL

Hong Kong nt 12:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- last week, my wife did a good job on deriving the weekly range, very helpful indeed...

hk ab 0.88 12:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, some delayed move could be seen on aud/gbp..
Take a short when it's near .42 mark again.

hk ab 0.88 12:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
nt, any posiitons u r willing to hold over weekend?

BC gave a hint that it will not be as volatile as we thought.

Hong Kong nt 12:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:04 GMT -- wave approach works well in this round, we are now betting for wave C to 12300 using a combination of future and option...

Dallas GEP 12:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Andras, I did not get in last round of USD/JPY longs. I had a buy order @ 105.85 but it never got that low at the time. It is a matter of poor execution because I posted this earlier. (Just goes to show you, your view can be right and you still miss the opportunity!!! LOL)

Dallas GEP 02:57 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/JPY 106.20 is the number to work with for TP on longs for now. I would try and buy on dips back to the 105.90 area. If 106.30 is seen then a quick long should work as well. I beleive 106.60 to 106.80 is very possuble before G7 and this is being conservative.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hongkong nt.
I will flat for a while. Hang Seng is very volatile

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hongkong nt.
I flat on the second session, but :-( , no get mentality for buy. uch.. only get small today in Hand seng short at 13280 (15 pips)

hk ab 0.88 12:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
all the crosses are twisted together then, Raden.

Hong Kong nt 11:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:16 GMT -- re: hang seng, reverse short at 13300 (50% retracement). good trades...

melbourne farmacia 11:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Yen - 106.70 ( bid ) is a 0.50% fib of 107.90 / 105.45 - fwiw

Melbourne Qindex 11:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:27 GMT February 5, 2004
AUD/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 0.7603. The lower barrier is expected at 0.7514 // 0.7532 and the upper barrier is located at 0.7656 // 0.7674.


... 0.7514 // 0.7532 ... 0.7585, 0.7603, 0.7621 ... 0.7656 // 0.7674 ...

Melbourne Qindex 11:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 11:55 GMT - AUD/USD : It is waiting EUR/USD to make the move.

hk ab 0.88 11:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
148--> 129-->138 --> 112 dlr/jpy

142--> 125 -->138 --> ??? eur/jpy......

Sydney bl 11:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex Any comment on AUD/USD

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sorry about my impolite conversation, hope we can smile for a while. :-)
Mr. eur/usd chart say,"let me take my number 1.2499-85.., but Mr. GBP/usd chart say" hey..don't influence me because I must takemy number 1.8491 and Mr. Usd/jpy say" excuse me let me go to take my number 106.87 early.
And then they get agreement okay.. we will finish each homework and then meet together here again to play together and laugh together.

Melbourne Qindex 11:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Swiss/Gold : It is trading at 496. Anything below the 500 Mark is no good!

hk ab 0.88 11:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
IF G7 doesn't press Jap, I think it's meaningless.....

So, MOF make use of the last chance (day) to build up a bigger cushion for all jpy pairs.

Otherwise, "Dubai" move will be back.

Lahore Rk 11:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham i just read your comment . your view is 50 k so we will wait for couple of hours and see how traders react may be high voltaility then normal

Thnx

GL/GT

Lahore Rk 11:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham i just read your comment . your view is 50 k so we will wait for couple of ours and see how traders react may be high voltaaility then normal

Thnx

GL/GT

Pecs Andras 11:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Patience pays a few pips, right? :-)
You still in the dollar/yen long?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:45 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
seen gbp/usd still will finish "it's homework" to get 1.8491 and seen wait eur/usd get 1.2499-85 as a bottom.
eur/usd chart... please do that soon !!. I have not be patient again to see that numbers in my monitor..

hk ab 0.88 11:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
May be all ECB needs to do is to open the .68 gate for eur/gbp, and things will pan out.

Moskow 11:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
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hk ab 0.88 11:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I think the closing number is far more impt than what ever high/low made today.

Dallas GEP 11:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed 1.3380 usd/cad long @ 1.3400

hk ab 0.88 11:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
oh come on, fill my eur/chf plz......

Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:40 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/CHF : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2431 // 1.2468 and the upper barrier is expected at 1.2578 // 1.2615. The critical point is located at 1.2505.


... 1.2358 ... 1.2431 // 1.2468, 1.2505, 1.2542, 1.2578 // 1.2615 ... 1.2726 ... 1.2799 ...

hk ab 0.88 11:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
we are now at the 38.2 of 137.40 to 130.80 low......fwiw.

ICT ML 11:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
AB....you are right it appears.....we need to do something about that.

Auckland KK 11:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Good evening everyone!

I have to sleep la , today is enough for my little pocket.

Bye~

hk ab 0.88 11:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
and it's time to see whether DROP is a real player or loser.....

Nottingham 11:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Lahore Rk 11:32:

I made a comment about this during US session yest...sorry don't know how to copy it to here

Pecs Andras 11:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 11:27 GMT February 6, 2004
The range expected is very wide, upt to 300K
I have just read a very conservative but realistic estimate around 75k
If it pans out, the market may react to it as bad, though it would be a strong number

Aden PK 11:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HK AB, Euro/Yen should be a sell near 134-05 with a stop 134.25 bid, I feel we will see these levels before it turn down for a shallow correction upto 133.35-40

hk ab 0.88 11:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML, I think the cable is sold via eur/gbp...

someone is protecting that .6830 big time?

Lahore Rk 11:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
If below 120 k may be near to 100 k . hmm them USA session will be very intersting
Any opinion would be of great help
GL/GT

hk ab 0.88 11:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Knez, that was an understated number definitely.

hk ab 0.88 11:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
over few years of manipulation on eur/jpy, I think it's enough and the egg is hatched........

ICT ML 11:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
would the dumbass who insists on selling cable in the middle of the range please cut it out......we'll get you a better level if you work with us....

Belgrade Knez 11:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

Regarding today Nonfarm Payrolls:
Forecast 150-180k
Previous 1K

this is like 150 times better, would $ then go to parity? LOL

Please comments.

hk ab 0.88 11:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy stops if dlr/jpy upside triggered.....

hk ab 0.88 11:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Daniel, thanks.

Actually I track their reports as well.

Know what, they are good at trending mkt more than range mkt.

And the one they are very good is euro.

Dublin CK 11:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Buenos Aires Argenfx 11:09

At 13:30 GMT

hk ab 0.88 11:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sell eur/jpy 133.55.

Gen dk 11:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 11:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:35 GMT January 31, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 105.66. The lower barrier is positioning at 104.44 // 105.05 and the mid-point reference is 104.75. The upper barrier is expected at 106.27 // 106.88 and the mid-point reference is 106.58. The market rhythm is represented by 61 pips (k=0.6117) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 104.44 - 106.88 (Suggestion : Buy on dip when the market is pulling towards 105.05 - 105.66).

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 104.44 // 105.05, 105.66, 106.27 // 106.88...


USD/JPY : Weekly Cycle Charts

Auckland KK 11:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tonight I think I will try to sell JPY when the price fall below the pivot point of 5-min chart. Any comment?

Manchester Daniel 11:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ab - I ran a test on Commerzbank recommends from mid Oct to mid Dec - rather inconsistent: some weeks excellent, other weeks so/so, and some weeks terrible.

To my suprise - the one pair they were rather consistent with was: EURO/CHF.

I dont tend to read the reports each day now so cannot tell you how they have been since mid December. But as I see you like to play the EURO/CHF pair, keep this in mind. GL GT

hk ab 0.88 11:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ZAR 2nd wave is coming.....

Buenos Aires Argenfx 11:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dear friends...at what time we will know the report of G7 meeting ? TIA.

hk ab 0.88 10:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Aden, May I have one as well? TIA.

Auckland KK 10:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hello!

I have some fun with the YEN this morning. How are you doing?

hk ab 0.88 10:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Daniel.

It looks to me now the aggressive bulls were trapped now in the .6850-90 region.......

I am still holding shorts .6840, .6870.
eurchf channel still has a long way to go.

1.57 and 1.53

GL and GT.

My thought was G meeting should press jap not to intervene so much.

Wonder what is the meaning of the word "competitiveness" in Europe mean.

I personally never visit Europe and buy very few Eu goods 'cos of the high costs.

Japs goods are more reliable and cheaper.

Buenos Aires Argenfx 10:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
To DALLAS Gep: Hello, friend...which´s your strategy on JPY for the next US session ? Tks. & GT.

Melbourne Qindex 10:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Buy on dip is still the preferred trading strategy.

Manchester Daniel 10:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Aden - if possible - I would appreciate a copy of the Commerzbank report in english - a bit of a pain to translate it from the German all the time.

Please ask Jay at GV for my email as I know he prefers that we dont post email addresses on the forum.

Many thanks - safe trades

Melbourne Qindex 10:45 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 106.27 - 106.38 is the projected supporting level.

Melbourne Qindex 10:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : After 106.67 - 106.88, the next barrier is 107.62 - 107.65.

Aden PK 10:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez, I have access to them against pasword free of charge as the Bank in which I am working are the client of Commerzbank, as well myself have an account with them also.

Sorry for delayed reply as I was away for Friday prayers,

Manchester Daniel 10:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ab - good morning. Just wondering if you still in your NZD short. I decided to take a shot at 6899 yday - still holding position. Comments appreciated.

I agree with your euro/chf view - must admit i am a bit confused with the CHF selling. With G7 meeting coming up there is always a risk that some "catastrophe" could occur - what a way for the bad guys to grab the headlines. Please - I hope this should not happen. But as there is always this risk, why is market selling the safe haven ccy??

bucharest dc 10:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
please tell me the trading hours of JSE (in gmt)

Gen dk 10:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.88 10:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
add another short eur/chf 1.5702.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd.
keep seriously 1.2499-85.
sell on up rally . that's only swing, hope not nerveous in selling (IMO)

PAR 10:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Expect disappointing US unemployment figures. Bushes corporate and dividend tax cuts have encouraged US companies to maximize profits,dividends and as a consequece reduce headcount, sent jobs abroad, reduce depreciation and investments. Despite being positive for US financial markets those policies have been and are a disaster for the US jobmarket with more than 2.5 million jobs destroyed.

hk ab 0.88 10:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
if aud/nzd doesn't pass 1.1140 (bid) then the d/t will be maintained.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy thinking for 106.87

hk ab 0.88 10:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
thanks Raden, do u have any number in the head on eur?

What I get from u is that you meant big sharks moved earlier than the CBs right?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 10:01 GMT February 6, 2004
especially for eur/usd.
I have noted them for several action in manipulating price emotion. too danger for them actually. (subjective analysis..who knows? this is only the game)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
we have seen nice building in usd/jpy until get 106.71.
step by step follow my plan number. LOL hats off usd/jpy for its struggle. passing many key numbers.

AUS Trader 10:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jap looks like a baby bull targeting 1.08

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I mean like this :
my subjective opinion. I have detected there is conspiration "joint intervention". ha..ha.. you get ignore when at 1.2566 area . hope not repeat again. today for your lesson.
big sharks have come when you act to manipulate. LOL

hk ab 0.88 10:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Raden, which pair will they work on?
dlrjpy?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
my subjective opinion. I have detected there is conspiration "joint intervention". ha..ha.. you get ignore when at 1.2466 area . hope not repeat again. today for your lesson.
big sharks have come when you act. LOL

Belgrade Knez 09:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Aden PK

Received it. Thank you.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy and eur/usd. hmmmm

hk ab 0.88 09:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP do u have umber above 106.65?

hk ab 0.88 09:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
anyone shorted eur/gbp yesterday?!

prague mark 09:48 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
shall we start shorting usd/jpy - TIA

hk ab 0.88 09:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, rejoin u again 1.57 sell eurchf

Belgrade Knez 09:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Aden PK

Thanks Aden,
If you are memebr of Commerzbank, how much does it cost their membership?
Thanks.

hk ab 0.88 09:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
moment of truth?
106.60 so early?

hk ab 0.88 09:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/aud turns bearish for s/t.

will sell on touching the 1.65 line again.

Melbourne DC 09:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
MSN messenger back in business .

hk ab 0.88 09:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, would like to know if u are still holding eur/chf shorts.

SA Bok 09:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY will go up now as I just sold some USD .. LOL ..All Sq and off for Golf weekend .. enjoy all and good luck ...

Aden PK 09:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Belgrade, Kenz, I have mailed you the Commerz Technicals for 6th Feb 2004. These are in English, I wish you best of luck, please confirm receipt.

Wiarton H 09:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
KNEZ
You could also go to "commerzbank.com" it is english

Dublin Flip 09:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for that Daniel.
That translation site will come in very handy.
cheers and be lucky

Belgrade Knez 09:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Manchester Daniel

This translation could be very interesting. Who knows what at the end can come up. Instead of sell, they translate buy. LOL LOL

Bratislava JT 09:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
when do you expect usd/jpy to move up again to hit your targets?
thanks

Manchester Daniel 09:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
knez - if you get German Commerzbank report, you can use www.freetranslation.com to translate from German to English.

You must do each page separately. It takes a few minutes, and while the english translation at times can be quite funny, it is understandable.

For example, once it translated from the German "break in" resistance line as "burglary" of the resistance line. LOL

Good luck

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 09:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I see a short term sell sign on cable. Am shorting at 1.8360 for 1.8305. my s/l at 1.8425. Anyone seeing the same?

hk ab 0.88 09:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Seems yesterday delayed eur/gbp move happens on today.

Manchester Daniel 09:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ml - put a tight trail on your gbp/yen - u can always re-enter - but lock in profits - especially before THIS weekend.

BTW - msn now working - come on board

Belgrade Knez 09:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Madrid CAB

I know that site. Visiting every day, but there are no good comments as on their site.
Cheers.

hk ab 0.88 09:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
anyone want to sell a boat of eur/jpy?

Madrid CAB 09:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 08:56 GMT February 6, 2004
Take a look here
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/5954/content.asp?banner=commerzbank&menu=market
GL/GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
my message :
seen is on the way to go 1.2499-85 and be carefull for eur/usd when at 1.2499-85.

Belgrade Knez 09:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

Thanks guys.

Aden PK,
my e-mail: [email protected]
TIA

Tokyo Jon 09:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, I am waiting for 195.10 to enter long, target 195.60

ICT ML 09:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
well gbp/jpy stopped dead at 195.49...jon's target and also an up channel line on hourly chart.....there is still some room left in my techies for it to run, so still have it, moved tgt to 195.82 now, and keep raising it as it moves

brisbane sunstate 09:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
not sure how to do that, it is the only site I know, sorry you might have to take a crash course in german
gl

Aden PK 09:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade, Knez, site is updated regularly but acessable against password only, let me know your email address I will forward you right now todays daily technicals.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy have confirmed to get 106.57(minor) . you can buy here(106.35) for short term trade. this manuver is built to break 106.78, seen price will move to get 106.87 as top.

Belgrade Knez 08:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

Also, comments are in german lenguage, how to change to english.
Thanks.

ICT ML 08:56 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
jon, think I can squeeze 196.50 out of this today?

Belgrade Knez 08:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

Thanks guys for your help.


brisbane sunstate,
is that site updated automaticaly for free, as I have that chart and comments already two days ago?
TIA

Tokyo Jon 08:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB, thanks mate, but I missed both of my entrys, never use Yahoo BB

Chambery FR JFB 08:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon : whatever the spread/stop is, very good call on gbp/jpy :-) Hats off :-)

brisbane sunstate 08:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
try this but 1-2 day old
https://www.commerzbank.de/research/devisen_strategie/tech_analyse/index.html

Wiarton H 08:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 08:41 GMT February 6, 2004
Try FXSTREET.COM

Aden PK 08:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Belgrade, Kenez, Commerzbank daily technicals are acessable with password only.

Belgrade Knez 08:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

Hi to all.
Can anybody tell me site where I can find daily trading recommandation from COMMERZBANK.
TIA.

Moscow Hawk 08:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I still expect to see aussie below 0.7600 later today and then run to 0.7450 target but reasonable stop for that is 0.77.

Good luck

ICT ML 08:39 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Thaks Danielstill holding aTURD of a long cable, that if it weren't for that possies, I'd be up a HUGE ammount this week already.

Manchester Daniel 08:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML - lovely call on my "forbidden pair" - note the trend line RES on daily broke this morning - so i think your position looks great.

SA Bok 08:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 08:31 - 106.60 would suit and call it a week ...

GENEVA FHR 08:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Riksbank cut repo rate 0.25%

hk ab 0.88 08:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
MOF may want to prepare a higher cushion for G7.....

ICT ML 08:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
jon, no, moved it up a bit but will if it don't break 195 bid on this surge

sarasota jf 08:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ml - nothing really all japs focus on yen n euryen today not much flow for gbp today - nomura quite strong short term but we will hit a brick wall at some level in usdyen 106.65 maybe the spot - gbp yesterday was afraid of some top if we not break up this bis was heavy seller and they were the large buyer little while ago at lower price - gbp cant get stuff everyday if anything comes along will give u a shout - gt today

Tokyo Jon 08:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, did you take profit yet

singapore emperor 08:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Interesting USDJPY continues....
good names sharp...... tkvm MARCO MICRO

Tokyo Jon 08:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
oh why, does the market not give second chances.

SA Bok 08:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
okay lets see at least 106.60 USDJPY .. please LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
first confirmation for eur/usd to go 1.2499 havebe get.
okay.

ICT ML 08:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
JF...anything on GBP today?

Tokyo Jon 08:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ldn viewer, yes you are right, it was my mistake in that last message. I work on bid prices as it is universal but sometimes confussing

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dc 07:41 GMT February 6, 2004
yes..from 1.2644 make bearsih divergence

PAR 08:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dont think todays dollar yen rise is BOJ intervention but US investment banks getting out of japanese markets before they collapse again.

sarasota jf 08:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
nomura buyer of usdyen and euryen - bk china buyer of audyen however jap exporters lining up to sell usdyen - eur ms and commerz heavy sellers of eur - imm name selling at 60 now and a model bidding 40 - seems rangey short term - more eurusd stops on downside under an asian cb bid - euryen will be the key determinant until end of trading today

Ina* mr.co'z 08:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd resistance at 1.2620, support : 1.2480-1.2460-1.2440
gl/gt..!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Johanesburg.
yes.

Stockholm za 08:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY....... Today.....
8584-8553
8522-8513
8472
8432-8422
8391-8360
TR ~8669-8625-:-8301-8249
ema [ 55 + 233 ] = RIS 14
Happy trades.....

SA Bok 08:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
MSN is down for maintainence

Ldn Viewer 08:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon - Sorry another question , if you use bid prices and you say buy at 194.30 bid so basically thats buys at 194.40 offer (give or take a few pips) and then this is done and you say stop at 194.10 (BID ?) so to me when price is 194.10 - 20 stop is done on the spread and loss is 30 pips ?

Your input and thoughts appreciated TIA

Moscow Hawk 08:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
While 1.2500-20 limits downside EUR/USD is still strong intraday and another attempt to test 1.2630-65 is possible. Need to move below 1.25 to almost eliminate such possibility. If we see test of 1.2630-65 again I will not be a seller there this time (high risk it will be broken).

Inability of aussie to capitalize on yesterday late evening downside move is worrisome. While above 0.7600 another test of 0.7670-00 is possible.

Good luck

Tokyo Jon 07:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR, sorry, all my entrys are based on bid prices, So a buy entry of 194.30 is actually, 194.40 if you have a 10 pip spread like mine, or 194.38 if you use others. The target and stop would also be based on the bid price, so I actualy have a 20 pip stop.

FWIW, I went to enter my long trade and the system crashed, but not to worry, there`s always a second chance in the forex.

ICT ML 07:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
all we need now is another blast from our Japanese friends to kick this gbp/jpy through the next level.....

Johannesburg cd 07:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Oy Raden, still counting down?

Ldn 07:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I am also having problems with it

Chambery FR JFB 07:48 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Btw - is it just me or are others having problems with MSN?
MSN is down here as well :-(

ICT ML 07:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
dan...msn is down for maintenance for a bit

Manchester Daniel 07:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
CT db - good morning. Sorry to use forum for personal message - but cant seem to log onto MSN messenger this morning. If you want to, please do a quick install of AOL Instant Messenger which seems to be working OK.

Btw - is it just me or are others having problems with MSN?

Seems we need euro to break out of 1.2535-65 range to give us a bit of direction on the day. Potential double bottom formed on 15 min chart at 1.243x area. GBP also appears to have made double bottom at 1.831x area.

Of course our "friends" at the BoJ at it again yday - seems they would like to go into the G7 a full figure over the "105" doomsday line.

AS A REMINDER: To those who are brave enough to leave positions open over the weekend - please confirm with your broker what their policy is regrading stops should market GAP over the weekend. Some will honour stop at exact level you set. Others will only close you out at "first available price" when they open, which, in a GAP market after some "suit" has opened his mouth, can easily be 100 pips away from your stop.

Safe trades to all today.

beijing road 07:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Will add eur long positions below 12530-12500, stop at 12480.

bucharest dc 07:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
solo, yesterday did you see the divergence with rsi 14? on the 15 min chart eur/usd?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
let's look 15 minutes chart with indicator Accumulation Distribution if you have for eur/usd.
you will see nice bearish divergence. I have test that signal not often show, but if show.ussually right.

Ldn 07:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BERNANKE"s comments have provided additional interest for today"s key payrolls release as his comments on the jobs market have been taken in the spot market as a heads up for the Jan figure. He said he was "pretty confident" the US will see some big numbers on jobs growth "pretty soon". This was countered however by his expectations on growth as while he expects 4%+ this year he added that the jobs market would only improve slowly as businesses have shown a remarkable ability to meet rising demand without the need to hire. rts

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hello.. repeat again with "joint intervention". I prefer againts them. they will not always winn.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sorry.. this is not my joke. I am serious .
9..8..7..6..
it's time..

LDn 07:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Moscow metro blast kills at least 22
Explosion during Friday rush hour injured another 30

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4187981/

ICT ML 07:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Jon, mine is 194.90 area now, a falling trend line...and then will reload on a break if it keeps running thru.....not liking what I see right now though

Chambery FR JFB 07:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon 07:23 GMT February 6, 2004
Hi Jon, do you mean buy @194.30 bid or ask? with a stop @194.10 and a spread of 10, the "real" stop is only 10 pips away... A stop just under the figure wouldn't it be more realistic? TIA GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
IMO.
eur/usd at 1.2550 now is on the counting down for down move. let's see 1.2499 -85 soon and bbe carefull if price get that number especially 1.2485 maybe wake up from there.
I think sellers eur/usd emotion have ready now.let's go !!

Ldn 07:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
According to a copy obtained by Italian media and in line with yest"s leak, IMF"s latest forecasts to be presented at this w/e G7 project the world economy to grow 4.5% in 2004, vs its previous estimate of 4.1% released in Sep, reflecting a sharp upward revision to US real GDP from 3.9% to 4.6% & a marginal change to eurozone growth from 1.9% to 2%. The report sees ECB policy as appropriate, but says further EUR rise would damage eurozone"s competitiveness & job market and ECB should prepare itself for rate cut should a stronger EUR pose risk to inflation target. It also suggests the need for the Fed to prepare for an eventual change in current loose monetary policy to prevent a crisis in the financial mkt beforehand
rts

Tokyo Jon 07:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, sorry I forgot to ask, what is your TP. I Would like to know for comparison and may even reconsider mine. thanks

bucharest dc 07:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
razvan>your mail address is [email protected]?

Tokyo Jon 07:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
my targets are calculated on probabilty with formulas that I have spent a long time developing and improving. The figures are based on 4 and 6 hour charts and I verify all my expectations against charts, using eurusd, gbpusd and usdjpy. The later two are more for figures, but interesting to see what the impact the eurusd has on gbpjpy`s movement.

I will be returning to london on monday, although I will be around, I wont be able to participate as much as I would like to, so I wish everyone the best of luck.

prague mark 07:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
is current level good to short eur/usd - TIA

Rivonia PipPirate 07:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 06:54 'Gday, Chinese might say it is the year of the metal monkey? With wireless broardband you can trade from the beach now you lucky bugger:-) GL

Miami OMIL 07:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Interesting on those dates Farmacia it will be an interesting Friday if not bloody. It is nice to see a lot of good information on this forum. Thanks to everyone for the time and effort you give. Watch your backs and keep those stops tight so you can live another day to fight. (/;-> GL GT

Singapore Pilot 07:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Db.... no basis mate...if you believe in astrology..then just buy gold mate..

ICT ML 07:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
jon....how did you decide on your target on gbp/jpy?....might raise my TP limit if you have good reason ...

Singapore Spidey 07:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
YEN - Think we'll see a pullback to 105.80 for tonights NYC expiry before resume up to take out stops at 106.30.

SA Bok 06:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 06:54 - Hello Boet ... Rand at those levels and Exporters and all will shut up shop and the only engine to drive growth besides lower interest rates are gone ... and we can close up .. Gold at those USD 500 up levels the good old SARB should just continue to use the golden opportunity to buy the USD and build reserves ... just like the Asian CB's are doing now ... AIMHO

Macro Micro 06:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
80 percent of the forum contributers come from banks and institutions. To term the big boys (banks) with bsd, as "good name" is a worship.
If the "good name" refers to a market mover will pull effect, then that deserves a tap and hats off.
Anyway, we'll see how sharp emperor is....

Thanks for your comments and thoughts guys.

melbourne farmacia 06:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 06:17 GMT February 6, 2004
Yeah 06 Feb refers to a possible turning period for Eur/Usd. At this stage, i can't tell you what will happen as such, but expect the start of a new run for yealy highs or a drop to sub 1.2200 levels etc.. point is anything could play out today.

The following dates relate to possible turning periods for EUR/USD:
01 May 2003
20 May 2003
30 May 2003
18 June 2003
17 July 2003
03 September 2003*
02 October 2003
19 November 2003
06 February 2004

* Euro made new reversal low at 1.0760.

Melbourne Qindex 06:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 10:35 GMT February 1, 2004
Spot Gold : On Monday, January 21 1980, spot gold hit the historical high in London afternoon fix at US$850. However at the end of that month the price of gold dropped by 23% and closed around US$650. Any gold bugs of my age would remember that day. On Monday , January 12, 2004, spot gold reached the high around US$430 and at the end of this month it closed around US$402. Only time would tell for sure whether gold will consolidate between 340 - 370 in coming months.

Tokyo Jon 06:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ldn Viewer, a well placed stop only needs 20 pips, but with the gbpjpy, a wide stop is required, and sometimes I leave positions without it. for example, the market can react tonight and return back to the high 193`s before proceeding up.

CT DB 06:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Pilot 05:59,
interesting view!. if your view is that gold is at $500 - $800, then Rand is at +/- 5.60 - 3.50. How do u position the euro in light of this and what is your basis for this being "year of the metal". TIA

Singapore Pilot 06:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I guess these so called 'good names 'which emperor is refering to are those banks who run for the major hedge funds.. they may or may not be directional, depending on whether these hedge funds want to spoof the market or are doing some serious portfolio shift...

hk ab 0.88 06:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
cad looks fatique....

Tokyo Jon 06:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
gbpjpy[194.55] order placed. buy at 194.30 with second order 194.75, target 195.46, with full stop 194.10. Hoping to ride this dog till US close. if target not reached by this time, will close 30 minutes before end of day trading. Not keeping any over the weekend, Japan has invested largely today and must be fearful of the outcome from the G7 meeting.

SA Bok 06:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Macro Micro 06:44 - Good names = Banks , institutions that buy/sell in large amounts normally meaning they have large client orders to execute and they will drive the market until order is filled ... and they have taken profit behind the order

Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/JPY : Expansion from 22-day cycle reference

... // 105.98 - 106.18 - 106.38 - 106.58 - 106.77 // ...

Ldn Viewer 06:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon - Thanks for answer ... appreciate ..

Mate my point is is a 20 pip stop to little for this pair ? with 10 pip spreads ...

TIA

singapore t c s s 06:45 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Simply means that if usdyen falls from here, these guys will be bad names....

Macro Micro 06:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Can someone enlighten me.... what is the term "good name"?
I have seen this chap emperor using this term so often, does it mean these "good names" are directional or ?
Or is this some term that "blind leading the blind"?

Tokyo Jon 06:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer, sorry, got stopped and all positions closed. waiting for another buy signal shortly on gbpjpy

Singapore Pilot 06:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
More stops going thru' at 106.20 ..got more abv 106.30 and 106.50

hk ab 0.88 06:34 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Kevin,

the cad, I guess you have taken profit already.

Its weekly chart is interesting, depends on the closing today. The cad might have its s/t sma crossing 20 sma in weekly.

GT and GL.

Singapore Pilot 06:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
middle eastern names selling gbp from 1.8340 45...

hk ab 0.88 06:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, could you update your view on 6 Feb today? u mentioned it's a kind of trend change right?

Melbourne Qindex 06:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 106.27 - 106.31.


Melbourne Qindex 02:38 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/JPY : The market is trying to anchor itself at 105.79 - 106.00.

Melbourne Qindex 23:14 GMT February 5, 2004
USD/JPY : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 105.86. The lower barrier is positioning at 105.39 // 105.55 and the upper barrier is expected at 106.47 // 106.63. Use weekly cycle for reference at the same time.

... 105.39 // 105.55 ... 105.70, 105.86, 106.01 ... 106.32, 106.47 // 106.63 ...


Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 22-day cycle is 105.59 - 107.16 and the mid-point reference is 106.38. After expansion the trading reference is as follow :-


... // 105.59* - 105.98 - 106.38 - 106.77 - 107.16* // ...


Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Philiphine New Trader.
Actually to detect up to 106.26 is not difficult today..but I forgot usd/jpy. LOL because not interested chart at present.
Too many key numbers after get 106.26. These numbers are : 106.39 - 106.47 -106.57 and 106.71. Interested gain after leave 106.71, seen 107.16, . Now is hard battle to break 106.71. I think not interested now to look for gain from this chart. I am still not sure to break 106.26 so easy..why.. because this number is extreme top but for minor cyclic.
my suggest is better wait after 107.71.

Singapore Pilot 05:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold will be buy on dips still..its the only thing with Intrinsic value left.....apart from IOUs otherwise known as currency.. longer term targets $500-$800 ...Its going to be the year of the metal !!!

singapore emperor 05:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
THATS WHY, AUD and cross... very heavy.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
for middle term gold will go 382.00 and be carefull with this number as very potential as bottom. Ideally move from 411 before go there.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:45 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
gold will down 394.10 and be carefull with this number. maybe try move up from this number area.

phils VL 05:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy - limit buy 105.57

eur/usd - TP 1.2552 frm 1.26. Limit sell order again at 1.26

back in a few hours..

Singapore Pilot 05:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
kiss..ever since the Dubai meeting in Sept last year....now i know the end is near cos my grand mother and grand aunt also think $ yen shud be at 100

Philippines newtrader 05:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
raden, whats your forcast for the yen?

glasgow kiss 05:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
asia is now long and if we slip 20-30 pips will be spewing

glasgow kiss 05:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
pilot when was it a no brainer to be short usd jpy

glasgow kiss 05:25 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
why are u so convinced usd jpy is going to rally today

singapore emperor 05:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
saw gd names bgt USDJPY.... which will see higher lter.

Singapore Pilot 05:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
open positions out there points to a further spike up in usd$yen later on in London and NY time ...looks like its been a no brainer to short usd$...

Dallas GEP 05:01 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Farmacia. I will edit order

singapore emperor 04:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Agree Daily major support for EUR is at 1.2460-70.
Daily downward trendline resistance is at 1.2646, MACD in negative region. So worth sell towards 1.2646 again.

Melb mpfx 04:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw// Eur/Usd on weekly chart is heading for its second successive inside week. ( Range inside last weeks hi and lo )
I personally am waiting for a break of either last weeks hi or lo b4 re-entering eur....... gt

Eur/Usd
Previous weekly Close ~ 1.2462

Previous weekly High ~ 1.2662
Fib Retrace 25% ~ 1.2584
Fib Retrace 33.3% ~ 1.2557
Fib Retrace 38.2% ~ 1.2542
Fib / Pivot 50% ~ 1.2505
Fib Retrace 61.8% ~ 1.2468
Fib Retrace 66.6% ~ 1.2453
Fib Retrace 75% ~ 1.2427
Previous weekly Low ~ 1.2348

melbourne farmacia 04:51 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP - just had another look at Aussie, could go as high as 7648 ish this round, Will wait bit longer for entry.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sydney2
wow..DJI will be bearish strong.
be carefull with 10338 (maybe wake up again from here) and price seen will get 10045 area as bottom bottom.

Dallas GEP 04:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Great point BC. But certainly they can't depend upon Japan to hold the dollar up by themselves.

NYC YIPPEE 04:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi

I normally have no trouble following you and your ideas. But I must say tonight, I am lost. I do not commit capital to your ideas, but like to see your views. I have found that you are better when selling dollars vs buying dollars. Just an observation. Good trades.

FWIW I fancy the dollar goes down.. Without mercy.
Good trades to you friend.

Dallas GEP 04:27 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, I will be with you on that one as well.

shanghai bc 04:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

GEP 03:58 -- Maybe G-7 is a non-event for Dollar move given BoJ being busy whole day today unlike pre-Dubai yen moves..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sydney2
because American people still sleep now. better wait DJI for a while. I will look chart DJI.

Dalas GEP.
ya..maybe not good r/r, but don't forget with high probability touching. LOL

Dallas GEP 04:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas I am referring to SHORT term Euro rades

melbourne farmacia 04:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 04:15 GMT February 6, 2004
GEP - would like 2 know myself... had a short from 7630 and covered as someone's buying at 7615..!! will try another short again on 7638/40 line. GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Long term trade :

If we see weekly candle there is bearish engulfing. That’s mean will down so far below 1.2000. But don’t forget that this move down so far is corection type of up movement from 1.1100 to 1.2910. We can play in this corection before get 1.3170. Ideal bottom before move up to get 1.3170 is from low 1.2210 or 1.1837 or 1.1737. You can try buy at that numbers with tight stp and if price still break 1.1760 that’s better wait and see to get confirmation again price will move down again or make swing only.

Trade Strategy :

• Buy at 1.2210 for target 1.3170 with stp 1.2190
• Buy at 1.1837 for target 1.3170 with stp 1.1817
• Buy at 1.1760 for target 1.2370 with stp 1.1740
• Sell at 1.3170 for target 1.2500 with stp 1.3190

Dallas GEP 04:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Raden MAS that first scenario with a 100 pip stop would kill most of the people here!!! LOL Other 3 scenarios tho have good R/R

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Middle term trade :

For middle term trade , eur/usd have finished at 1.2644, but still valid too if price make top at 1.2737 but now to get 1.2737 still not get confirmation because 1.2655 not yet be shown. That number is potential as a top for minor cyclic and potential become top of corection for long term phase to get major corection of weekly chart at 1.2210 as a first target or 1.1837 is second target or 1.1760 as extreme target.
But if 1.2930 be broken before get 1.2210 better wait to think for buy because strong up will come. Confirmation to get 1.2210 is if 1.2332 be broken , but ussually if price get confirmation for down, price move againts that confirmation to make swing. Hope not thinking buy if like that but better wait for sell at higher (sell on up rally).

Trade Strategy :

• Sell at 1.2644 to get 1.2240 with stp at 1.2660.(was activated selling)
• Sell at 1.2735 to get 1.2240 with stp at 1.2755
• Buy at 1.2215 to get 1.2300 with stp at 1.2200

Sydney2 04:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi,
what is your view on DJI when usa employment figure comes out later today? Thanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Short term trade :

After get top number at 1.2644 give reaction down move so far. Actually short term trade still no get confirmation for sell, but if I see middle term cyclic, is very ideal 1.2644 as a top awing before move down to finish middle term target at 1.2210. For short term trade price give sign is on the way to get 1.2385 and extreme target at 1.2437. Be carefull with number 1.2485 and 1.2437. These numbers are very potential give buy reaction.

Because 1.2655 still not yet show, that’s’ mean we still can not hope to get 1.2737. we can forget this number for a while but this target 1.2737 still valid to hope although price get extreme number at 1.2437. The reason is because there are two numbers that ideal as the top before go down to 1.2215. These numbers are 1.2644 or 1.2737.
Trade Strategy :

• Sell at 1.2550 to get 1.2485 with stp at 1.2650
• Sell at 1.2616 to get 1.2485 with stp at 1.2650
• Buy at 1.2485 to get 30 pips with stp at 1.2465
• Sell at 1.2437 to get 60 pips with stp at 1.2410

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hey friends who trade Hang Seng Index.
be carefull with price 13282, maybe price move down from here. better exit your buy position.

Dallas GEP 04:15 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
You Aussie watchers, Is there any reason to think that the AUSSIE WON'T short down to figure (.7600) from here????

SA Bok 04:14 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP - THKS for advise .. small trades lots and hedged ...thats my game plan

phils VL 04:13 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BC

hello BC, long time no see....trust the Emperor's court is treating you royally...

Equally interested in Gep's 3.58 gmt question re usd gap up/down sunday nite NY time.. could be fascinated by your views..

eur/usd - still recall your 1.25-1.30 target for correction made last year, and your indication of 1.15 as fair value. Re latter - is market currently still in correction mode until 1.15?

tia, GT to you

ICT ML 04:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
well right now I'm only net down 20 bpips on all possies today..so as long as gbp/jpy keeps climbing and cable holds it here or climbs a bit more...I'm fine

Dallas GEP 04:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
ML, had I done that I couldn't have taken all those usd/jpy longs!!!! PLUS, that pig costs me 10 pips to play and at times it as unpredictable as the MOF himself!!!!

You need 1.8380 to bail out of GBP longs????

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 04:02 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Bionic Bunny

ICT ML 03:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you should have held in there on our GBP/JPY long .......looking pretty good for 195 plus I think..missed my TP limit earlier, had it @ 194.92 bid......5 pips off...bummer

Dallas GEP 03:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BC, in your view, do you see us opening Sunday night gaped up in FAVOR of USD or gaped down AGAINST USD compared to NY close on Friday????

Dallas GEP 03:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Yes Q, I am bionic, I do not need sleep!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 03:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Bok, this reminds me of something. I remember one March a few years ago where usd/jpy was pressing 135.00 and it fell over 3 figures in less than 20 minutes. UNFORTUNATELY I knew a couple of traders who were long WITHOUT stops and there were basically instantly margined out. This G7 meeting could be REALLY market moving so DO NOT enter possies without some sort of stop. Also stop and reverses are NOT reccomended in situations like this because there may be swings BOTH ways and you simply could be stopped out twice. If you are use to running possies without stops, still put a stop in SOMEWHERE in case we have a huge swing. Better to be stopped out than wiped out!!!

SA Bok 03:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:11 - Thks GEP , thats what I am looking for as had a TP order at 60 and was not done by my Broker ... same old fading of prices it seems .. Got to love them .. TIA

Ldn Viewer 03:47 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon - Do you still hold your GBPJPY long position ? TIA
Seems to me stop may have been done as spread is so wide ?
Appreciate your input as I try this pair ...TIA

shanghai bc 03:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX -- Good morning..Good forecasts and trades..

Perth AS 03:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC appreciate your reply thanks

AB time will tell.

Melbourne Qindex 03:44 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:37 GMT - I don't know the odds but I would say it is very likely before the New York session. Stay up all night!

shanghai bc 03:43 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

AB 03:26 -- Good morning..With all due respect,NZD is too small a sized currency for any good sized real money folks to worry about as an indicator of a sort and Aud has almost all advantages or disadvantages Nzd has too..Aud and Gold are preferred by international investors in terms of liquidiy..Of course,No.1 choice is Euro thanks to its liquidity..

SA Bok 03:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Guys .. its seems the forum now has changed its view on USDJPY ? This am ... I think we see a break below 105.00 many real sellers out there and we are now coming into prime repatriation period .. BOJ is just holding up market ..

To me real sellers will sell even one month out if levels are good ...

G7 last time also saw JPY fall 3 yen ... maybe a last shot from BOJ giving guys opportunity to sell above 106.00 and the leave it ... AIMHO

phils VL 03:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP

you are doing fine... I trade your way too from time to time on side orders.... but bacon for me are the main menu limit and stop orders...

Cud be a volatile liquidation day later on....

USA Biscuit Boy 03:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Took profit on euro shorts from higher up. Will sell again at 1.26 and above if seen. GL and GT.

Dallas GEP 03:41 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Thanks DC, it certainly is more visual I think.

Melbourne DC 03:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
HI GEP
That's a better analogy than the monopoly one before :) GT.

Dallas GEP 03:37 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
QINDEX my friend, how would you rank the probability that we will see 106.60 BEFORE asia closes????

Dallas GEP 03:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hey VL, I am just happy you made a killing of your longs. My method is to take many small bites to make a meal. That way I can eat quickly out of the big dog's bowl while he is off sleeping or doing whatever!!! LOL

mex sjs 03:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
longed gbpusd here at 1.8331 s/l 1.8300 tgt above 1.8400, shorted usdchf here at 1.2493 s/l 1.2525 tgt below 1.2400 gt & gl, any opinion is welcome

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF (newb) 02:30 GMT February 6, 2004
Thanks for your care about us.

I am here okay. I hope there is "big chartquake" soon and not damage chart equity . Sorry.. just a joke. :-)

Melbourne Qindex 03:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The mid-point reference between 105.98 and 106.38 is 106.18.

phils VL 03:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GEP//

usd/jpy- you r probably right that 105.40 may be an extreme low for today. But after carrying 3 bundles of longs since Monday and profiting frm it without too much stress, I'm not in a hurry to risk longs again at too muc higher lvls from my sub 105 s/l strategy....maybe at 105.55 at best will long again for today.
I also agree that the bias is more clearly up today having seen 106 and still staying abv for some time. As said Monday, the prospect is actually 107

GL GT

Dallas GEP 03:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Obviously the market is a little thinner right now because everyone is trying to figure out WTF to do?????

Melbourne Qindex 03:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:23 GMT - Good Morning!

Melbourne Qindex 03:29 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/JPY : The market rhythm of my current 22-day cycle is represented by 157 pips.

Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT February 6, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range from my 22-day cycle is 105.59 - 107.16 and the mid-point reference is 106.38. After expansion the trading reference is as follow :-


... // 105.59* - 105.98 - 106.38 - 106.77 - 107.16* // ...

Dallas GEP 03:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Shelby, be sure and come back for London!!!

Dallas GEP 03:28 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
AB, what are you doing on your eur/gbp possie????

Shelbyville MKT 03:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Goodnight forum

hk ab 0.88 03:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
bc, gd morning.

will nzd move alone, leaving aud and eur?

shanghai bc 03:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

AS 02:46 -- Good morning..As far as medium-term traders go,the distribution of their non-Dollar longs since the middle of last month is not over yet with selling on bounce still being a preferred strategy for them..Gold,Aud and Euro are still their main target assets and Gold leads them somehow..Gold is likely to find some support in 395-375 region for a good bounce or another upmove for medium-term traders with Aud and Eur largely following Gold's lead..Imho..

Ina* mr.co'z 03:23 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hello all !
Nassau QF (newb) 02:30 GMT February 6, 2004
lol..:)) i'm here...so far well ! :) ya ..heard that too..!

Dallas GEP 03:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD Yeah I have been LONG on it from early this morning from 1.3380. I think it sees maybe 1.3420. Charts don't really support that tho.

hk ab 0.88 03:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
AS, Ihold short on nzd.

I shifted it from aud to nzd. which seemed now not a wise move.

Dallas GEP 03:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Very nice VL on your longs, chances of seeing 105.40 again before G7 are probably NIL.

We are starting to see higher lows on the retracements on this usd/jpy.

hk ab 0.88 03:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
anyone has a view on dlr/cad at the moment?

phils VL 03:16 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy - TP all longs at 106.08, frm 105.40. wl probably long again frm 105.40 if seen for today only.

eur/usd - main menu limit sell 1.2600 frm overnite going great guns, and still holding. Side sell at market at 1.2582 stopped out at 1.2619

Perth AS 03:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab are you still short ?

Melbourne Qindex 03:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 03:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Bok - 105.59 was the low offered AFTER MOF had temporarily drew that 105.72 in the sand during US session. Is that what you are referring to????

Perth AS 03:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
CNBC asia analyst saying market pricing in 75% chance of a 50 bpt Fed rate rise in August if not before. as the Bernanke, normally dovish in his stance , however this time rather bullish

Shelbyville MKT 03:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
my trailing stop got hit

hk ab 0.88 03:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
AS, share the same view.

Dallas GEP 03:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Shelby, you get your long usd/jpy closed out??????

SA Bok 03:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning All

May I ask the low offered after the first round of BOJ intervention this am ... appreciate

SanFrancisco tg 03:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Greg - agreed, anything above 106.20 may well validate a shift in overall bias. Therefore, it must be convincing throughout crosses and majors, otherwise, retracement.

Perth AS 02:58 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab I feel because The RBA started increasing rates early n the cycle the housing boom has had a chance to gradually deflate it is noticable every where with no bust his slowly slowly approach is why the economy is still strong my feeling is we will see a range of say 72 -79 in the next 12 months unless the risk element raises its ugly head , then we could see the Aud back below 70 . Fed are in need of a rate rise be it only a small one as the UK have just done , whether we like it or not higher interest rates are on the menu across the globe. good trades

Dallas GEP 02:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY 106.20 is the number to work with for TP on longs for now. I would try and buy on dips back to the 105.90 area. If 106.30 is seen then a quick long should work as well. I beleive 106.60 to 106.80 is very possuble before G7 and this is being conservative.

Melbourne Qindex 02:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Anyting above this level 106.53 - 106.88 is very positive for the market. (106.53 is a quantised level in my 44-day cycle chart)


USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : ...............The upper barrier is expected at 106.27 // 106.88 and the mid-point reference is 106.58.....

Perth AS 02:53 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Bird flu could be '1000 times worse' than SARS
THE Australian scientist who led the World Health Organisation fight against SARS in China warned yesterday that Asian bird flu was "1000 times worse" than that deadly outbreak."Whereas SARS was a wake-up call as to what could happen with influenza, the worries about avian influenza and the worries about new pandemic influenza are a thousand times worse than considering SARS," Professor McKenzie told The Australian.SARS was just a kind of minor thing compared to what a new pandemic of influenza would be." That pneumonia-like virus has killed more than 700 people so far -- mainly in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Canada -- and created financial havoc, especially with tourism. It is estimated to have cost the world economy $80billion. But Professor McKenzie warned that SARS, a coronavirus, was far less infectious than the avian flu that had apparently crossed over to the human population in Southeast Asia.
Professor McKenzie said the outbreak was far more extensive than previous eruptions of avian flu, which had claimed six lives in Hong Kong in 1997 and one in the Netherlands last year. This was "incredibly worrying", because it significantly increased the risk of a human influenza pandemic, "which we are due for".We have been waiting for a new pandemic strain for the last 40 years or so now," he said. "They occur normally every 10 to 30 years with varying degrees of severity, so we have been waiting for a new pandemic strain to arrive. "And I think this is the worst scenario possible that could presage one. It does concern me enormously."
The last influenza pandemic was the Hong Kong flu outbreak in 1968, suspected to have originated from a cross-infection of human N2N2 and avian H3Nx virus strains in Asia.
Spanish flu, believed to have emerged from a swine or avian host, claimed up to 40million lives when it swept the world in 1918-19 in the aftermath of World War I.
Spokesman Chris Prideaux said that even if development of the vaccine was too late to help curb the current outbreak, it would provide a good base from which to develop other vaccines to treat future outbreaks. Professor McKenzie said although the chance of a human flu pandemic was greater than at any time in the past 30 years, the overall risk of such an international outbreak remained small. But no country, including Australia, would be spared. "Every country would get it," he said. "We would be equally susceptible as anywhere else." Auspress




Dallas GEP 02:52 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Got my 106.20 on this set of usd/jpy longs. DO NOT TAKE IT SHORT. Buy on DIPS ONLY for now.

hk ab 0.88 02:50 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
AS, aud is far far too overstretched togetther with nzd. No economy can sustain this drastic increase especially they are exporting countries.

AS, hk has overcome an property, stock bubbles and the price of those property in aussie is another indication.

I would not mind to buy aud, but could not buy them blindly here.

Melbourne Qindex 02:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 106.53 is a good short term target.

Perth AS 02:46 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc good day, what is your view at present on the Euro and Aud market seems confused this week but are you seeing any turn int the USD fortunes as yet . many thanks for you views.

HK ab you seem mighty negative the AUD any special reason behind it. tks

Melbourne Qindex 02:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is trying to anchor itself at 105.79 - 106.00.

Melbourne Qindex 02:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is trying to anchore itself at 105.79 - 106.00.

Nassau QF (newb) 02:32 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
JAKARTA, Feb 6 (Reuters) -- A strong earthquake that struck Indonesia's Papua province early on Friday killed at least seven people and damaged houses and roads, an official at the earthquake department said.

A number of people were also injured in the quake, which measured 6.9 on the Richter scale.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/JAK76482.htm

Nassau QF (newb) 02:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Eathquake in Indonesia?

Raden and Qo'z, are you guys OK?

Sydney2 02:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
does anyone plan to sell $/jep around 107 areas?

Dallas GEP 02:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
IN @ 105.99 traded on USD/JPY looking for 106.20

Singapore Pilot 02:20 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Don't reckon its tag team intervention..This China guy is just another big time spec using his muscle cos he's just jobbing for the 40 to 50 pips..not 'keeping it in the drawer' type of player.....reckon will be prudent to sell back around cuurent lvls and wait to get in again at 105.70

singapore emperor 02:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hrly euryen double top worth to t/p and see back to 132.40-50....... heavy

Dallas GEP 02:12 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY might wish to consider TP @ 106.20 THEN get back in on DIP

Melbourne Qindex 02:09 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : This is still a good reference in Asia Session.

Melbourne Qindex 05:14 GMT February 5, 2004
GBP/USD : the critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.8270. The upper barrier is positioning at 1.8331 // 1.8361 and the lower barrier is expected at 1.8179 // 1.8209. The odds are in favour of taking short position.


... 1.8179 // 1.8209 - 1.8240 - 1.8270* - (1.8300) - 1.8331 // 1.8361 ...

ICT ML 02:08 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
You guys saying China is bidding now up above 106? might be a tag team intervention here...

Melbourne Qindex 02:07 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 106.88 + 61 pips = 107.49

Melbourne Qindex 02:06 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : 106.88 - 61 pips = 107.49

singapore emperor 02:05 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
decent offers in euryen ...... abv 133.45-55 region...

hk ab 0.88 02:00 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, very much appreciated.

Singapore Pilot 01:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
More stops building up abv 106.30 now

Melbourne Qindex 01:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:35 GMT January 31, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 105.66. The lower barrier is positioning at 104.44 // 105.05 and the mid-point reference is 104.75. The upper barrier is expected at 106.27 // 106.88 and the mid-point reference is 106.58. The market rhythm is represented by 61 pips (k=0.6117) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 104.44 - 106.88 (Suggestion : Buy on dip when the market is pulling towards 105.05 - 105.66).

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 104.44 // 105.05, 105.66, 106.27 // 106.88...

singapore emperor 01:59 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
REALLY......... !
THEY ARE ABV 106.10

Singapore Pilot 01:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
China party buying usd yen this morning....

Melbourne Qindex 01:57 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 01:55 GMT - EUR/JPY : 133.06 is a neutral position. The odds are even and it is better to short EUR/USD.

hk ab 0.88 01:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, do you have a bias on eur/jpy?

To me, no matter how, one ingredient this Sat. will be Jap should take upsome burden from Eu and other nations. So, expect a slip on eur/jpy in the coming months.

Dallas GEP 01:55 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Posted earlier today:

Dallas GEP 20:02 GMT February 5, 2004
Good Question!!!! Depends on how far they want to drive it 106.27 seems reasonable. Picked up a good amount of sellers @ 106.00 for sure. It will get progressively harder for them the higher they go UNLESS they take out the stops on the sell orders and I think they may do that.

ICT ML 01:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Nice plays on the $Y GEPPER........

I need to see GBP/JPY back up there around 195 to get my asss out of a hurtful long cable possie now........

Shelbyville MKT 01:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: went long the usd/jpy at 105.90.

singapore emperor 01:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Looking at Daily chart JPY, the momentum is picking up for higher usdjpy...... Pilot, u must be a happy man

Melbourne Qindex 01:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : the market is trying to tackle the barrier at 106.27 // 106.88 and this is good until the end of this week.

Dallas GEP 01:49 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BTW CS, this is EXACTLY why I took a set of lots long @ 105.90 earlier.

Melbourne Qindex 01:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : A projected supporting level has been established at 105.01 - 105.12 and a projected resistant level is expected at 107.62 - 107.65. This range 105.01 - 107.65 should be good for several trading days.

Nassau QF (newb) 01:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
la saint3 01:26 GMT February 6, 2004
qf: you caught that?

I watched it happen but didn't chase it.
I had no yen positions open.
I didn't short at the top in case it was going to be a 100 pip move like they sometimes do.

Dallas GEP 01:36 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Out on USD/JPY longs on a tp @ 106.10

Melbourne Qindex 01:35 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:14 GMT February 5, 2004
USD/JPY : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 105.86. The lower barrier is positioning at 105.39 // 105.55 and the upper barrier is expected at 106.47 // 106.63. Use weekly cycle for reference at the same time.

... 105.39 // 105.55 ... 105.70, 105.86, 106.01 ... 106.32, 106.47 // 106.63 ...

Singapore Pilot 01:33 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Looks like a lot of willing sellers up at 106.10 20.... bids now at 105.70 80 region...G& jitters forcing some short covering ... reckon sellers must be jap exporters

Philippines newtrader 01:31 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
gud morning mr raden.. your forcAST yesterday was amazing... i thank you very much...your studies are great. ...

Singapore Pilot 01:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - All currency market intervention by Japan in the October-December quarter was carried out by Japan alone, a senior Finance Ministry official said on Friday.
Earlier, the ministry said it had stepped into the market on 26 days between October 1 and December 31, spending 5.8755 trillion yen ($55.55 billion) to stem the yen's rise, seen as a threat to the country's export-led economy.

singapore emperor 01:30 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
managed to see jap sold abv 106.10

singapore emperor 01:29 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Market go for stops... in USDJPY. All filled 106.04-10 region.
Asian touched usyen and euryen higher than NY ....
be careful... break 105.30-40 usyen .. no good.

la saint3 01:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
qf: you caught that?

Singapore Pilot 01:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
cud be...All Japanese names buying ...had to trigger some specs stops abv 106.05 10....no confrimation if its indeed BOJ or not... will come back with more info...what a spoof... back down to 105.80 again

ICT ML 01:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Goddammit...that spike missed my TP limit on the gbp/jpy long by 5 measly pips.....

Dublin CK 01:26 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BOJ are up early it seems. Maybe they see the writing on the wall for the weak dollar after todays comments and tmw's strong employment data?

Nassau QF (newb) 01:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Big move from 105.73 to 106.19

Nassau QF (newb) 01:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
BOJ/MOF intervention?

Belgrade Knez 01:17 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Global-View 01:11 GMT February 6, 2004

Would that presentation will be video or forum presentation like this one we have now?

Thanks.

Global-View 01:11 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   

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Gen dk 01:04 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Singapore Pilot 00:54 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
This is the sched from the U.S. side.
Friday: John Snow will hold bilateral meetings from 12:45 local time with U.K., ECB, Canada, France and Germany.
Saturday: Japan-U.S. meeting at 7:30 local time.
Communique due 5:00 p.m. local time, followed by press conferences by Snow and then individual member nations.

Houston KC 00:42 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Closed out my previous set of usd/jpy longs @ 105.93 for modest gain. Short small amount from 105.76 target 105.30 From 105.25 down to 104.75 have staggered Buy orders for the next ride up on the MOF express. My feeling is that 105 will be tested. I believe MOF will show they mean business @ 105. The last couple of interventions were mild. I think 107 might be possible on the MOF express from 105. GL & GT to all.

Ldn 00:38 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Anyone shorting Aud or waiting for a llittle higher if seen??

Singapore FHO 00:24 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Got it. Tks for the info guys.

Spore Mal 00:22 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY high 106.04

la saint3 00:21 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
sg. it was 106.07

Singapore FHO 00:19 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys. Can someone tell me whats the Hi in USD/YEN during NY session pls. Tks.

Gen dk 00:18 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

melbourne farmacia 00:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 23:52 GMT February 5, 2004
hello mate - can't see anything below 0.7596 at this stage, oz might short again within 0.7628/35 zone. Might be worth a short limit order under 0.7590 going into G7 etc.. GT

Ldn 00:10 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino how close are we to your prediction of the AUD reverse

Nassau QF (newb) 00:03 GMT February 6, 2004 Reply   
I hour SMA on EUR/USD breaking. Already broken on GBP/USD.
Stochs pointing up on both.

Did you keep your long position Porto Azarento?

 




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