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Forex Forum Archive for 02/08/2004

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sg spidey 23:43 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
i heard that euro bid isnt cb... was a us fund

sg day trader 23:35 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
to Hk, chinese
if what u say about the cb is true, then maybe we are back into last weeks trading ... sell in asia and buy in london?
so far i noticed we hv not been able to trade above 1.2640?

Bucharest Razvan 23:30 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
.

Bucharest Razvan 23:29 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Hmph.. All my pre 1.24 eur longs were closed friday on autopilot (i was away the whole day) at 1.2600. Waiting for clearer picture.

HK chinese 23:23 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
heard asian cb bidding for eur and he maybe one bidding at 1.2550 ... thats why euro cannot go down.
like what emperor said....'good names' bid hahaha

melbourne farmacia 23:11 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Aud/Usd - seems this 0.7710 - 0.7610 range will continue for the next few days. Assume stops above/below range. GT

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 23:11 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
close my chf here for 110 pips.

HK chinese 23:05 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
direct cross buying of euryen but euro hit offers above 1.2635 think can look to sell some there if we see another rally. direct $yen offers by japanese ... i think those guys bidding below on behalf of official now happy take profit near 106.
trade eur range 00-40 from here i think////

Toronto fxdc 23:03 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
buy Eur @1.2580 Stop 1.2520
buy Gbp @1.8390 stop 1.8330

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:58 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
am just interesting to see the development of e/j....

HK chinese 22:57 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Macro - Micro
emperor was rather confident $yen up on fri.... if he didnt sell his position, he is pork chop like a eunuch.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:54 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
nt, easy pips come from you again...

still holding long dlr/chf 1.2315

Macro Micro 22:53 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
USD buyers have been gentle, guess Snow's closing press conf about intervention has created a confusion. Everyone knows he paid lip-service on agreeing that USD weakness overdone.
US fund covering small shorts and busily paying USDYEN up to 105.95 but offers are clocked up to 106.50. Think we locked in a 105.50-106.50 range and could be good to sell short-dated vols.

PS To emperor - I sincerely hope you got out of your longs.

Colo Chief1Oar 22:43 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF (newb) 22:38 GMT February 8, 2004

Yeah !!! Also, they are based in Moscow..... I don't know if everything is converted to Rubles first or not...Communicating with them isn't real easy either...LOL
Chief

Melbourne Qindex 22:42 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Porto Azarento 22:41 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
ok melbourne. thanks

Nassau QF (newb) 22:38 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Colo, that sounds like one of those commercials that were running a couple of years ago. LOL.

Can't believe they're actually doing that.

melbourne farmacia 22:37 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Porto Azarento 22:35 GMT February 8, 2004
That was last week mate. GT

Porto Azarento 22:35 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
rba will decide about the rates? at what gmt time?

Colo Chief1Oar 22:34 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF (newb) 21:59 GMT February 8, 2004
I guess you and I have the same broker Colo Chief1oar.
Gee Cee Eye.

Mega Trader.....with a (T)...won't have them much longer....just learned over the weekend that the orders I input thru their platform are intercepted by an operator and entered into the market by hand.....!!!

Would gladly entertain opinions on a good, honest, straight broker.... if there is such a thing....

Good Trades...

Chief

boulder dat 22:31 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras...

i think the market knows the RBA will be on hold. not sure that it will be enough of an event to warrant a short.

Pecs Andras 22:24 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, it will be in 2 hours, at 00:30 GMT

Pecs Andras 22:22 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP
So you are out of the AUD short?
The RBA MPS is due in about an hour. They may say they will be on hold for some time, which may be AUD negative. Thinking about shorting the pair at this level.

Dallas GEP 22:18 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Andras, I do NOT think the gaps will be filled soon, no.

Pecs Andras 22:16 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP
On my platform 7633/38

Dallas GEP 22:16 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I had a TAKE PROFIT on Aussie short @ .7640 (ask) and it's low was .7638 ask. I lucked out on that one!!!!

Eilat Dolphin 22:16 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Gep/ .7650

Pecs Andras 22:15 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Do you thing that these huge gaps will be filled soon on EUR and cable?

Dallas GEP 22:13 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
What has been LOW on Aussie thus far guys????

ICT ML 22:05 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
that sucks...our broker that opened 4 minutes ago, and is flashing quotes, won't fill orders yet......thought I could arbitrage a few pips...but guess not

Johannesburg cd 22:01 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
my platform just opened eur/$ 1.2606 bid. Going long.

Nassau QF (newb) 21:59 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I guess you and I have the same broker Colo Chief1oar.
Gee Cee Eye.

Eilat Dolphin 21:59 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Sam/ I favor E at 1.24 before 1.28, but since what tfd I know, a 10 min stochs should guide in the coming hours and days.

Melb mpfx 21:51 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw some eur/usd numbers that might be handy....gt
I use a close time of 3pm us

Eur/Usd
Previous weekly Close ~ 1.2690

Previous weekly High ~ 1.2722
Fib Retrace 25% ~ 1.2639
Fib Retrace 33.3% ~ 1.2611
Fib Retrace 38.2% ~ 1.2595
Fib / Pivot 50% ~ 1.2556
Fib Retrace 61.8% ~ 1.2516
Fib Retrace 66.6% ~ 1.2500
Fib Retrace 75% ~ 1.2472
Previous weekly Low ~ 1.2389

Colo Chief1oar 21:50 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Bangkok FBF 21:36 GMT February 8, 2004
GEP//God your platform opens late!

Mine doesn't open for another 2 hours...!!!!


Chief

BEIRUT MK 21:36 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
short eur on friday at 1.2695
move stop at break even
or close at 1.2590

think that eur is a buy around 1.25X for
a break of 1.2775

thank you.

Bangkok FBF 21:36 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
GEP//God your platform opens late!

Johannesburg cd 21:36 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
gep... do you have a strategy for the week or are you taking it day by day?

Dallas GEP 21:27 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
About an hour until my platform opens but unless something changes we will open up with a usd bulls making some noise over the weekend causing some gaps. Only possie I had left open was a n Aussie short which has currently gapped down about 35 pips from where it closed on Friday.

Ldn 21:25 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   

Anyone Got a view on
John Kerry was already the front-runner before the results in Washington and Michigan, but now he is even further out ahead.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3469729.stm

What affect it would have on the USD ?


Melbourne Qindex 20:51 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD  Weekly Cycle Analyses . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 20:50 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The folowing is still good for the early period of this week.

Melbourne Qindex 21:52 GMT January 31, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.2529. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2254 // 1.2345 and the mid-point reference is 1.2300. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2300, EUR/USD has a potential to tackle the extreme target at 1.1978. The upper barrier is located at 1.2621 // 1.2713 and the mid-point reference is 1.2667. The market rhythm is represented by 92 pips (k=0.00919) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2345 - 1.2713. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market is trading below the upper barrier at 1.2621 // 1.2713).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

1.1978 ... 1.2254 // 1.2345, 1.2437, 1.2529, 1.2621 // 1.2713 ...


prauge viktor 20:40 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
be cool,its just a matter of time and the effect of G7 well be done and the EUR/USD will be 1,3-1,35 after a corection to the 1,237 and all because of the BOJ intervetion.So all the traders will forget the G7 and what they said.

slv sam 20:33 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 19:49 /
buy it! you will not see the euro down before 1.31 level.GT

Alb em 20:02 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
G7 warns on currency volatility
The leading industrialised nations have moved to alleviate pressure on the surging euro, saying excess volatility in currencies would harm global growth. afr

HK 8888 20:00 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
The official mkt open in eur/usd was 1.2600/10 at 18.00 gmt.
It did deal down to 1.2565 prior to the mkt open though.

HK 8888 19:56 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
MKT OPENED AT 18.00GMT

Fairland RipVanVinkle 19:55 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
when FX starts...(hour)?

Ldn 19:52 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
LDN SR and fell further ..yes

Eilat Dolphin 19:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
sam : ""buy E now"" / I ain't buyin' nothin'.

London 19:48 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: There were leaks from EZ officials on Friday that the G7 would bring in
new language to clarify the Dubai statement. There were indications on Friday
that the European contingent would try and signal that they will not stand by
and see the EUR take the brunt of the USD adjustment and for that adjustment to
be precipitous and harm the EZ economy.

LDN SR 19:48 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
While different systems might show a lvls for eur/usd opening level, actually, the eur/usd opened about 1.2635 offered...

USA Biscuit Boy 19:45 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Took profits on euro shorts from higher up.

Ldn 19:43 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Is that right Euro dropped from 127 now 126 on Asia open ??

slv sam 19:43 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
buy the euro now if you can.GT

cairo hh 19:42 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks ger

USA Biscuit Boy 19:41 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
On my retail platform euro opened 1.2577 if that helps. Up to 1.2590's now.

Neuchatel DG 19:41 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
NZD at 0.6879

GER ad 19:40 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
cairo hh 19:36
0.6879/89 No idea if is tradable

cairo hh 19:36 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
any one knows what is the price of newzeland dollar now? tia

LDN SR 19:30 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd: opened at 1.2635...not 1.2700

syd 19:21 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston: Tokyo opens 21:00 GMT - lot of speculation amongst amateurs - not too much trading

Actually been large volume gone through in the EBS so far, all quiet now but dont think nothing has gone through so far.

Ldn Mvs 19:20 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Euro is 1.2582/87 now

Londonderry 19:18 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
ZP - where's your Eur/Usd in the window?

ZP Nemo 19:14 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Is quotes from censored in upper window right or wrong??

Londonderry 19:14 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston: Tokyo opens 21:00 GMT - lot of speculation amongst amateurs - not too much trading - clever orders already in.

syd 19:14 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston dc 19:11 GMT ,
markets been open officially since 18:00 gmt and trading
unofficially for a lot longer.

Livingston dc 19:11 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I think the ones who are trading are using spread betting. I thought the fx markets open with the Japan session.

Porto Azarento 19:10 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
just see the quotes here: http://w w w.forexdirectory.net/jpy.html

Eilat Dolphin 19:10 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
My guess is that it takes lots of guts to go E long here...

Londonderry 19:09 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Livingston : Mkts open 21:00 GMT - gap expected - followed by wave, then retracement.

Eilat Dolphin 19:08 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Sure seems trading goes on :E at 12575.

Nassau QF (newb) 19:07 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Depends on your Broker Livingston.
My broker doesn't open until 11:30GMT but others on this forum appear to be trading already.

prague mark 19:07 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
thebulliondesk.com is giving GOLD +2,2USD and SILVER +0,04USD - is it good indicator for rel market opening prices - TIA

Livingston dc 19:04 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
What time GMT do the markets open please?

HELSINKI JAK 18:57 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
read my comment about the G7 meeting.
market is to gap down following large banks as most of them are selling euros. but they aslo advice to be coutious.

Barcelona JP 18:54 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki:

If it does, I will be killed. I bought USD/CHF at 1,2346 last friday and I have a stop at 1,2335.

Barcelona JP 18:51 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
HELSINKI.

Why market is expected to open lower than friday close?

Market will open with a gap up in USD.

Porto Azarento 18:51 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
well well well, usdjpy will open above or under 105.90?
its 105.80 at this moment....

dc fxq 18:51 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Censored has it 1.3304/1.3314 and it is valid. Closed out a couple of positions at that level.

Sofia TNZ 18:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
o*anda i meant lol

Barcelona JP 18:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY 105,81

HELSINKI JAK 18:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
it is expected that market will open lower but then will gap up in a few secconds

Sofia TNZ 18:48 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Yes, censored rated this too...
Thank you very much, Barcelona

Barcelona JP 18:48 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Neuchatel: good question.
But why hasn't it gone up?
There is something in the kitchen.

Barcelona JP 18:46 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for those long in EUR. Trichet could not go back home without any move. For How long, that's the question!!!

Neuchatel DG 18:44 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have expectation of what willhappen to $/yen during next hours.... I thinking to long $/yen now as it`s one of the only crosses that haven`t moved much yet.

HELSINKI JAK 18:44 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
yes jp thats right

Barcelona JP 18:43 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Rates keep moving:

EUR/USD: 1,2584
USD/CHF: 1,2470

HELSINKI JAK 18:42 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
LONDON (AFX) - European finance officials were apparently successful in
bringing the US on board in the G7 communique released last night, as the group
gave warning about excessive moves in currency markets.
Analysts noted that European officials had sought such language in order to
bring international backing to their own calls for stability in exchange rates
in recent weeks.
As recently as Jan 14, the Financial Times reported that European officials
said the US and Europe held increasingly antagonistic views about the dollar,
with the US eager to avoid any statement that would spark a recovery in the US
currency.
The US probably agreed to the statement in the knowledge that without any
specific commitment to action, or expression of dissatisfaction with current
currency values, the dollar will continue to trend lower, some analysts said.
The Bush administration is widely believed to support the dollar's decline
against the euro, sterling, and yen in recent months, because of the positive
effects this has on US export growth and corporate profits.
The G7 statement is 'a surprise outcome', said David Gilmore,
partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics. 'Clearly Europe got what it wanted
out of the communique on FX'.
The communique issued yesterday by the G7 finance ministers and central bank
governors meeting in Boca Raton, Florida, said 'excess volatility and
disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic
growth.'
This language was not included in the previous communique, issued at the
meeting in Dubai last September. Since that meeting, the euro has risen 12 pct,
bringing its increase since the year 2000 lows against the dollar to 50 pct.
The euro's almost unbroken rise in the weeks since Christmas prompted a slew
of Europeans -- from industrialists and politicians to central bankers -- to
express varying degrees of concern about foreign exchange developments.
On the surface, the implication of the communique's wording this time is
that the G7 believe 'the speed of the rise in the euro was too fast and
currency adjustments to imbalances need to be concentrated in non-Japan
Asia,' said Marcel Kasumovich, head G10 currency strategist at Merrill
Lynch.
The dollar's continual depreciation against the euro is partly due to its
inability to decline against the currencies of China, South Korea, Taiwan, and
other Asian countries -- which have policies that prevent free floating.
The G7 in Boca Raton again put these countries on notice that greater
flexibility is expected: 'we emphasize that more flexibility in exchange
rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas that lack such
flexibility.'
This statement 'makes it clear it is China' that the G7 want to
see move towards a flexible exchange rate regime, said Stephen Lewis, chief
economist at London-based Monument Securities.
To the extent that the dollar can decline against the Chinese yuan and other
currencies, some pressure would be taken off the euro, some currency strategists
say.
European finance ministers said after the meeting that the statement was a
success from the euro zone's viewpoint.
The European distress about the euro's rise -- which economic theory says
will curtail exports, a key source of expansion for slow-growing Germany and
others -- is ironic, in that it should help to reduce the US current account
deficits which Europeans have repeatedly criticised, analysts said.
'There is some irony in their position,' said Lewis.
For the US, yesterday's statement shows that the Bush administration wants
to avoid a sharp dollar drop that could destabilise the US stock and bond
markets, analysts said.
This is all the more so in the context of 2004 being a presidential election
year, said Stephen Jen, chief currency economist at Morgan Stanley.
'The US has reasons to be marginally more concerned about a sell-off in
asset markets than it was last September,' Jen said.
In particular, the US job market has not responded in the way that many
expected in the wake of a sharp acceleration in GDP growth in the third quarter
last year.
Whereas some economists expected to see monthly payroll growth of as much as
200,000 by now, January only saw 112,000 new jobs, while payrolls rose only
16,000 in December.
This being the case, the administration will be eager to avoid upsetting
investors by appearing to endorse a sharp and destabilising fall in the dollar,
Jen said.
'No one, especially the US, wants a run on the dollar,' Gilmore
said.
The statement signed up to by US Treasury Secretary John Snow yesterday
'indicates that it is not US policy to go for a sharp depreciation of the
dollar,' Lewis said.
The fact that the statement does not indicate any willingness by the G7 to
take action to reverse the dollar's decline also makes it agreeable to the US
administration, analysts speculated.
Currency strategists stressed that the G7 statement will do little to alter
the underlying trends behind the dollar's decline. At the most, some observers
said, it will keep the market cautious about the pace of the decline.
'Markets are now on notice that disorderly conditions will not be
tolerated, and euro/dollar will likely approach the 1.30 (mark) ... with some
caution,' said Mansoor Mohi-uddin and Daniel Katzive at UBS.
Mohi-uddin and Katzive predicted that the euro would rise further tomorrow,
despite the G7 statement on volatility.
UBS strategists noted that while this was the first reference to volatility
in a communique by the G7 since 1999, the statement still lacked any new
language suggesting exchange rate moves are already inconsistent with
fundamentals.
Kasumovich agreed: 'exchange rate levels are not in question: there is
no indication that the G7 view the dollar's decline as being stretched'.
This is a far cry from the G7's commitment in 1987 to cap the dollar's
decline, which had accelerated in wake of a 1985 accord to drive the US currency
down from record levels.
In the so-called Louvre Accord of 1987, the G7 committed 'to cooperate
closely to foster stability of exchange rates around current levels.'
Some analysts said last September's G7 meeting evoked memories of the 1985
Plaza Accord, by identifying flexibility as a positive for currency markets.
Many traders took this statement as an endorsement of the dollar's decline.
Without any specific statement that current foreign exchange values are out
of whack, or that the G7 will act to stabilise rates at current levels, the
current bearish phase for the dollar is set to continue into next year,
Kasumovich concluded.

HELSINKI JAK 18:41 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
KANTONALBANK

EUR/USD..........1,2584
USD/CHF..........1,2459
GBP/USD..........1,8406
AUD/USD..........0,7653
EUR/JPY..........133,09
USD/JPY..........105,71

Barcelona JP 18:40 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I have an account with UBS Warburg, so I know what I'm posting!!!

HELSINKI JAK 18:40 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
GERMANY BANK SELLING EUROS

Barcelona JP 18:39 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
UBS warburg is not a broker: It's a bank, one of the big and best ones.
Brokers will open that way if there is not a gap down from now to 22:00 GMT.

Sofia TNZ 18:38 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 18:36 GMT February 8, 2004
where u saw these rates? GL GT

Paris 18:37 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
UK, agree with u, and other uk brokers open also at 22 cet, so i wud not believe this prices.

Barcelona JP 18:36 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Prices at UBS Warburg:

EUR/USD..........1,2584
USD/CHF..........1,2459
GBP/USD..........1,8406
AUD/USD..........0,7653
EUR/JPY..........133,09
USD/JPY..........105,71

18:35 GMT

UK ELC 18:35 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 23.30

UK ELC 18:33 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Paris

Nobody can trade IG untill 11.30 GMT (as far as I know)

Neuchatel DG 18:32 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Anybody have a idea of cad now ?

seychelles rm 18:29 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Netdania.com on quotelist is giving live GOLD and indication from a dealer gave me heads up on pre market outlook for dollar.

fla 18:29 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I was wondering I dont get a good feed on aussie now . Is it trading and what is the level pls?

dc fxq 18:25 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF (newb) 18:22 GMT

censored is the source and those are tradeable prices.

Eilat Dolphin 18:23 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the numbers. Happy Sunday all...or what's left.

Paris 18:22 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Eastbourne or others. Is anyone was able to trade at the prices shown by IG??

Nassau QF (newb) 18:22 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
What charts are you using to see the current prices?
G C I and S A X O are showing Friday's closing prices.

seychelles rm 18:15 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Getting feed of Gold trading up

seychelles rm 18:06 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Funny, I am getting indication for a down open for dollar

ny 18:06 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
thanks for the aussie level appreciate it

Chicago Irish 18:05 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Thin out there....currently 1.2613-16 Euro and 1.2427-32 Usd/Chf

cannes od 18:03 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
aussi 76.51-53

cannes od 17:56 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
please reed 1.8398-1.8402

Eastbourne PJ 17:56 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Seems that many players must beleive there is going to be some $ strength.

ny 17:55 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
anybody have a idea of aussie ,where it might be now ?

Geneva DC 17:53 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, here is eur$ recap so far:
opened at 1.2700, went offered to 1.2690, 80, down to 50, up to 70, down to 50, 20/30, interim low to 1.2610, back up to 40, then straight down to 1.2560/70
now 1.2565/75 at DB

cannes od 17:53 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
gbp$ 1.8389-1.8402

Eastbourne PJ 17:52 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Cable now following in the drop. Just above 1.84

UK ELC 17:52 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
IG Index US/CH 1.2481

Chicago Irish 17:52 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
PJ currently 1.2480-87

Eastbourne PJ 17:51 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Chicago, are u sure? 1.2462-69, would be nice cos I went long Fri pm..!

Eastbourne PJ 17:46 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Paris, for FX I use censored. For better indication check out www igindex co uk.

london p 17:45 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
ig index euro dollar 581-586
gold down 3.6 dollars 399.2-400
havent got prices for anything else

Chicago Irish 17:44 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Dont know about IG but for your guide I am seeing 1.2462-69 on Usd/Chf,1.2582-85 on Euro.

cannes od 17:44 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
$chf ubs warburg 1.2460-66

derby dj 17:43 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
£$ looks like a top to me... take a look at this chart

http://www.forex-city.com/pic/ewa_gbp_D1_v1.gif

Paris 17:42 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Eastbourne, from where u take yr prices pls???, behind each fx broker u fine a bank,

Eastbourne PJ 17:40 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Derby, no movement to speak of in Cable. Would be interested to know what IG are quoting for USD/CHF...?

HKG SK 17:39 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Conclusions of G7 meeting, Fla.

Traders are still doubtful of the wordings coming out from the officials at the end of the meeting, and they might not believe that Dollar will strenghten too much afterward.

Don't bet on it. With all thes strong words from G7 officials, they have the power and heart to halt the dollar slide this time. There will be a long and deep correction for the dollar this time. Euro-1.16-1.18 and Yen-113-115 level within a month.



derby dj 17:38 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone think a short term dollar rally will help equities???

derby dj 17:37 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
300 pip fall over next 24hrs anyone??? got any cable prices Eastbourne??

london p 17:36 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
seems the uk spreadbet companies that are open for trading all have the euro down at least 100 pips gbp usd not open yet on any off them

Eastbourne PJ 17:29 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
igindex.co.uk currently quoting 12590/95 on Eur/Usd.

derby dj 17:26 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
BOCA RATON, Fla., Feb 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar could enjoy a relief rally as foreign exchange markets open on Monday after the Group of Seven rich economies warned over the weekend that "excess volatility" and "disorderly movements" in exchange rates could hobble world economic growth.

"The market will start by taking it down to $1.26 or $1.25 and see how much support euro/dollar gets there," he said.

Eastbourne PJ 17:20 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
paris 17:06 GMT February 8, 2004

You know not what you talk about. If there is someone willing to buy or sell there is a market, like now. Current pre-market price if I wanted to trade EUR/USD is 1.2640/65.

Officially, the London Stock market opens at 0800 gmt. Like FX, I often trade pre-market prior to open if I feel it's right.

derby dj 17:16 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
€$ -80 with igindex in uk... 12620 level and dropping... no cable figures yet...

paris 17:06 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
safes, there is no prices in fx during the w/e. market is closed from friday 23 cet and re opne at 20 cet on sunday. the last price we saw on friday was 1,2702/06, since ntg new.

Geneva DC 16:39 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
eur$ 1.2640/50
$yen 105.90

Geneva DC 16:37 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
some major banks came in early to cover their risks following G7
eur$ at 126.10/30

Safes nonstop 16:14 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Sofia, There are at least 2 internet brokers with live prices through the weekend. In the last few minutes Eur/Cable has already dropped 7 pips: I wonder to also sell Eur/Yen. The market is extremely thin, but there may be a few easy pips here.

beijing road 16:03 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Just find some interesting prediction on EUR/USD translated from Chinese:
In the next week, trending range is 230-260pips. It is certain that EUR will go to 1.2786-1.2830. At the begining of next week, EUR will go to 1.2744-1.2780, then retrace to 1.2677(test 1.2646-1.2590 support) .Finally EUR will test1.2786-1.2830, even 1.2925.
未来一周欧元趋向1.2786-1.2830是确定性的。周初冲高1.2744-1.2780、回调1.2677(考验1.2646-1.2590);中后期再逐级上攻1.2786-1.2830、甚至1.2925; 振荡空间230-260点

ankara 15:55 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
hello all ,i wish that you spent a nice weekend,i would like to ask a question but plz answer me quiclky before monday comes,im a beginner here and i woyld like to ask should i sell amout of euros i have or wait till monday,,to not had a gig loose ,plz advis me ,thanks

Moscow Hawk 15:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex, 1.2750 is the upper border of mid term range I pointed here before. Move above will probably open 1.2850-00 for a test but in my opinion only new highs for the year will open levels above 1.30. Good trades.

Spotforex NY 15:30 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I am watching the 1.2750 level for any catalyst on the dollar's medium term sentiment against the Euro...

above that level suggests a target of 1.3150....any failure to hold above it would suggest further consolidation in the ccy markets.....

1.2350 is support and 1.2200 area is the Q4 uptrend support (aka zorro zone)....

At this point in time the CBs would like to see consolidation...but the market should 'determine' FX rates.....

Sofia TNZ 15:23 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
hello ab, wish u a great week :)

Sofia TNZ 15:22 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Safes nonstop 15:15 GMT February 8, 2004

where u saw that? thanks in advance

boulder dat 15:16 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
bangkok sun...

thanks... i just logged on to their fx game. they are showing 1.2669 - 1.2714. sunday morning spreads i guess. (assuming the game is the same data as the realtime).

Safes nonstop 15:15 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD has dropped 50 pips and Cable only a few pips. May be worthwhile to try a Eur/ Cable short, which has not moved at all.

hk ab 15:15 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Athens, quick question.

Did last week break down of USD change your m/t picture on cad and eur?

Sofia TNZ 15:12 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
london 14:44 GMT February 8, 2004

where u saw that rate? thanks in advance
GL and GT all this week

LondonJoe 15:04 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
anyone care to predict open-hi-low-close on the day for eur/usd and usd/jpy today post g7..
ill go with eur
1.2670 open - 1.2750 hi - 1.26000 low - 1.2650 close
and usdyen
105.50 open - 106.30 hi 105.20 low - 105.70 close..(post BOJ viagra)
...so all in all same old same old nothing has really changed in my mind....

bangkok Sun 15:01 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
dat i see the same...1.2665/40

boulder dat 14:54 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
london 14:44...

i'm looking at their site right now. it's showing 1.2701. up from 1.2696 a few moments ago. how accurate is your last statement?

GVI Jay 14:54 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   

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london 14:44 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
ok. euro with O is currently at 1.2640/65. no bull

Moscow Hawk 14:39 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD managed to break 1.2630-65 on Friday and picture changed to neutral with upside risk for the pair. But I won’t buy such a break. I can not see so far resumption of uptrend while 1.2850-00 limit upside. Inability of EUR/USD to hold 1.2520-50 put again downside pressure on the pair and confirm false break.

Good luck

hk ab 14:31 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
nt, please send her my greetings and blessing to her. Many GT to your couples.

It's really a very wonderful job from your couple!

hong kong nt 13:14 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- my wife and i derived the following weekly ranges, euro 12400-12800, yen 10500-10700, cable 18100-18550, swiss 12250-12600, aud 7550-7750, nzd 6800-7050, cad 13150-13400, eur/gbp 6800-6900, eur/yen 13100-13500, dji 10550-10750, hsi 13200-13800. good trades...

ottawa GL 12:27 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20040207_1179.html

"The G-7 endorsement of flexibility has been interpreted by currency traders as giving them a green light to push the exchange value of the dollar lower without fear that the United States or other members of the G-7 would try to fight the moves with massive government intervention to brake the dollar's decline"


I am reading alot of views regarding the outcome of the G7 summit....seems to be as clear as mud. I think I'm sticking to the current fundamentals with Friday's actions (dollar down/gold up) as the current & correct trend. Someone duly noted that it is an election year, must create jobs, stock market must go up, debt must be inflated away and the only way that I'm aware of is a 'smaller' dollar.

As someone correctly noted, "...the masses aren't concerned about the value of the dollar, just how many they have (or don'y have)....."



Singapore Sfx 12:25 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Shud be seeing first official interbank prices about 5 & 1/2 hours from now.. with possibility of some trades a bit sooner...

derby dj 12:25 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
from reuters

But analysts said while the statement may give pause to markets in the short term, it will not change a longer term downward trend for the dollar stemming in part from record U.S. budget deficits.

"I think we are much closer to intervention," said Marcel Kasumovich, a foreign-exchange strategist with Merrill Lynch in New York, referring to the possibility that a continued appreciation in the euro's value could lead Europe to counter it by selling the currency and buying dollars.

ottawa GL 12:16 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
ELC,

Heard on another forum at 20:00 GMT. I believe that's in a little less than 8 hrs? 3:00pm eastern?

UK ELC 12:12 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
What time sun night do we first start to see currency movement?

ottawa GL 12:02 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Please excuse a newbie question.

How does a country 'declare' that its currency is 'pegged' to the dollar? Japan is fighting tooth-and-nail to stem the Yen's rise while China sits back and watches the fighting.

Why doesn't Japan 'peg' its currency?

TIA

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:19 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
bc, though I didn't anticipate another leg down of USD. However, seems too many dreams on a quick, immediate turn of USD. So, I think let's celebrate the last leg. GT as always.

We really need more support from you.

derby dj 10:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
looks like a triple top to me on £$ and €$. All dollar rally would complete the top nicely. 1.70 £$ does not look unlikely over the next few months imho.... we went up quick so can reverse just as quick if sentiment changes.... am i way off the mark??? If we gap down later today, we should get at least a few hundred pips to 180 area on £$.

HK Chinese 10:47 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Is the emporer an eunuch now?

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:42 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
nt, very good for you.
yo picked the bottom. I guessed.

Hong Kong nt 10:34 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
HK AB -- my wife and i bought a apartment in southern horizon last june at 2mio, this weekend, property agents keep to call us to sell at 3mio, we refuse and ask them to call back when price reaches 4.5mio. a good sign for local economy and stock mkt...

derby dj 10:33 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
TOKYO (AFX) -- Deutsche Bank said in a note that it expects the euro to fall against the dollar and the dollar to climb against the yen following the conclusion of the Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting in Boca Raton. Deutsche Bank currency strategists say they expect an initial decline for the euro to $1.25 or $1.24 with the possibility of a slide all the way to to "$1.20 over the next few weeks." They also expect the dollar to climb "well back towards the 106.00 level." They said that while the G7 communique kept the spirit of the last Dubai meeting, the group may have felt that the euro's appeciation may have "gone too far." This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

empoli (italy) ab 08:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all my frds, reading the newspaper this morning about the agreement reached in Boca Raton on fx seems that many are on the line that the right interpretation of the G7 words is that Euro is too high agst Usd (i think just an interpretation because reading the exact words i dont find anything of this, i can interprete it like an usual G7 statement warning abt eccessive volatility and promising cooperate intervention, and furthermore referring to more flexibility is a direct critic to country which are involved in intervetion..) so
everybody is cliaming a victory; Europeans, Americans and Japanese seems having found the correct formula to solve the same problem: their willingness to depreciate their own currency. So my question is: how do u think we have the open in the fx tonite and in case of a spoff towards a new Dollar weakness, (why not a test at 1,30 and or sub 104 in EurUsd and UsdYen? in OZ time everything is possible) do u think we will see a coordinate intervention?, in an affermative case i think we can say that a real agreement has been reached but sincerelhy i have some doubts on this.
Thanks in advance for ur reply best regards and good luck to all.

Melbourne Qindex 07:46 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD :  Trading strategy on Monday . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

prauge viktor 07:31 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Hello all:
G7 will offer nothing and the usd is going to be
about 1,425 during the 2-3Q 2004,it is helpfull
for all.when usa good all the world will be good
and fro the yen I belive so the 100 and mabyth
e 95 it will be to the end of the 3Q 2004.
good luck all

Livingston nh 04:56 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
I think if you trade Monday you trade the charts - some follow thru weakness in USD in Asia and London but correction in US (subject to Pres Bush performance on Sunday Morning) - the fundamentals haven't changed and there is no signal that intervention is even a remote possibility

The Chinese actions don't constitute intervention but the Japanese actions do - the Chinese will subsidize the USD until interest rates rise in the US// the EUR is only 7% cheaper than what ECB thought it was worth in 1999 so no big deal - rate of change is important for businesses to adjust but both Japan in a Big way and Euro-zone to a lesser extent need to increase domestic aggregate demand -- Japan needs higher interest rates and ECB needs to cut to at least 1.25% - so fundamentals stay out of whack

Until China changes policy or the G7 coordinates a couple of major interventions the fundamentals stay the same

HK [email protected] 03:49 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
It is an election year in the USA.

Pro voters actions must be taken by the administration

1) Produce enough Jaabs (I mean Jobs).

2) Inflate the valuation of the retirement funds to the hapiness of the citizenry.

**********Mundus vult decipe, ergo decipiatur**********

******The world wants to be cheated so...CHEAT THEM!!!

It is not important for the common masses(at least for the short term) how much their dollar value, but how many dollars they do have.

So expect devaluation of the $$$$ to continue during the year!!!

Hong Kong VS 03:24 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
After those vague comments nothing much will happen on Monday but the medium term trend of the USD will be down further

London 03:15 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
-7 Statement Signals Worry About Dollar
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

Published: February 8, 2004


OCA RATON, Fla., Feb. 7 — Hoping to assuage widespread international alarm about the sinking value of the American dollar, the United States and other members of the Group of 7 industrialized countries declared Saturday that "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth."

Advertisement


The statement, issued by finance ministers of the member countries, represented at least a tepid acknowledgment by the United States that the dollar's rapid decline and the euro's rise could jeopardize the exports of European nations even as American exports receive a lift.

By expanding on earlier calls for flexibility in exchange rates, the statement implied sharper criticism of Asian governments, notably China and Japan, that have actively worked to keep their own currencies from rising in value,
strong euro is causing problems for European exporters by making their products more expensive in the United States. International anxieties about the United States' plunging currency and massive borrowing needs were higher at this Group of 7 meeting than in years.


NYT

london 02:50 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Careful not to read into this G7 statement want you want to want it to say rather than what it actually says

nyc sa 02:42 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
GV or any of our respected traders and economists , could u give us a practical interpretation of those G7 expressions such as "excessive volatility " "disorderly movement " as applied to the euro and the yen and what would be their implications on trading as of monday ? They said currency moves " should reflect fundamentals " , is the US trade deficit already completely priced in the dollar decline so far ? if not, then the dollar should have further room to go down . Also , is the japaneese economy in a much better shape than the US so as to allow the yen to appreciate to near parity with the dollar ? Are the EU fundamentals getting much better by the day to justify this 30% rise against the dollar ? I personally believe we will be trading ranges during the 1st quarter of the year until they break one way or another , the question is how and where these ranges will be established as of now, bottom and top ?

shanghai bc 02:11 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   

GVM 00:06 -- Good morning..For the main down-move of Dollar which started in early 2001,I am almost certain we have not seen the floor of the Dollar yet with one more possible leg to the down side..For the correctional up-move of Dollar which started in mid-Jan this year,I feel we are almost approaching the end of that correctional phase..For next Monday and next week,we may see slow weakening bias of Dollar within this year's range..Imho..

Ldn 02:01 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable.

The sub-text of this last assertion is that there is behind-the-scenes agreement that the dollar has fallen enough against the pound, the yen and the euro but that the Chinese currency should be allowed to move more freely.

The Chinese Government currently intervenes so it shadows the dollar.
extracts from script

Lancaster dh 01:10 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
The European ministers have been desiring to ease the euro's surge against the dollar. Sunday's action will be monitored close by many, including myself.

boulder dat 00:14 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc...
i just may agree with you on the lack of suprises. the statement itself has changed very little. however, all the talk surounding the statement from the G7 may actually move the markets initially. all of europe is claiming a victory in the continued rise in the euro. but the statement itself is too bland to come out and say enough of the dollar slide.

Sydney GVM 00:06 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC - no surprises in FX world' - so you dont agree with other posters here that we will see a gap down in Euro first thing Sunday night? TIA

shanghai bc 00:02 GMT February 8, 2004 Reply   

AB 17:11 -- Good morning..What is the chance of China's cb following HK radio broadcasts on RMB issue..Still,RMB has 50/50 chance of broadening its band up to extra 1-2% from the existing band sometime this year depending on capital flow situation inside Mainland..Then,HK folks brought in tens of billions of Dollars into Mainland in their suit cases to speculate on RMB rise..Not sure of their chance of making any money on their bet..I would rather use those tens of billions of Dollars to make some money growing fruit trees and raising cattles..

On G-7,everyone at the party got what they wanted..So,no surprise there for forex world..

 




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