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Forex Forum Archive for 02/12/2004

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GVI john 23:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Australian rates....


Brisbane L 23:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GVI john Exactly NZ is now starting to suffer also I noticed the UK with their record borrowing levels still held off on rates and their housing market absolutly on fire but still 4% we may get one more but that will be it and still think they wont because they may run out of time before the election which could be held anytime after June.

GVI john 23:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Can't leave this up for long, but

GVI john 23:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Would make sense for the RBA to pause? The BOC was too aggressive last year and unnecessarily choked the Canadian economy. These are not "normal" times. I think there is an underlying fragility to all economies. The strong oz is restraint enough.

Urbana IL dsb 23:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Excellent forum, thx to all participants.
Newbie qstn: After a spike takes out stops, e.g. AUDUSD today, is it safer to put stops in that range? TIA

Brisbane L 23:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GVI john data just recently has all been on the soft side , rates are stil reletively low but creeping up . The economy is dependant on the housing market as is the UK economy and they havent gone crazy raising because they realize they dont want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg - think the election makes the situation tricky , and just lately the look on John Howards face is of a man that knows he has got a challenge

GVI john 23:32 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
That means no more RBA hikes???

Brisbane L 23:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Saw the word recession on here - well if he does too many of the hikes that ugly word may be sitting on his door step yet again problem is with bankers they overkill
and with an election coming the PM wont want to be landed wtih that

Brisbane L 23:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Perth same in Queensland market definitly on the down turn in Property too late if your just putting on the market to get a good price its a buyers market now

Perth 23:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Sorry mean Rate Hike Nov and Dec

Melbourne Qindex 23:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The congested area of my monthly cycle is projected at 0.7597 - 0.7908 and the mid-point reference is 0.7752.

Perth 23:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Property Market has come to a complete slow down since the rate cuts if they do anymore the bottom will fall out of it and that will ruin the retail side not to mention the employment , as most of it is buiilding . Now is not the time to be selling

Ldn 23:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab think the early bird was just stop hunting because aud hasnt done the stop run they had hoped obviously and some poor sod has been taken out of his or her option position

Ldn 23:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Perth It would but the stop on any more rate increases in fear of a collapse , which holds the economy together

Ldn 23:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Perth It would but the stop on any more rate increases in fear of a collapse , which holds the economy together

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 23:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
IMVHO, I think the early birds are telling that it isn't very bad.

Perth 23:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hearing Aussie housing data quite bad anyone else heard this

Brisbane L 22:59 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUSTRALIAN housing finance data is dues hortlyand is expected to fall for the third consecutive month as RBA rate hikes begin to bite

Melbourne Qindex 22:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 22:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:49 GMT February 12, 2004
GBP/USD : The market is still trapped in the range of 1.8869 - 1.8954 for the time being. Use the daily cycle for reference when the market is trading outside 1.8869 - 1.8954.

Melbourne Qindex 22:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

GVI john 22:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The key money market rate in Canada is the Banker's Acceptance rate not the Treasury Bill rate.
BA's
1mo 2.43%
2mo 2.35%
3mo 2.30%
6mo 2.23%
12mo 2.27%

The target on overnight money is 2.50%. A 50bp cut implies 2.00%.

Ldn Mvs 22:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Cheers mate - well tom will be an interesting day again for US$ as well as CAD at 13.30GMT as they will both be coming out with trade data...forecast for Canada is for yet another improvement from 4.3 bn CAD to 4.6 bn CAD in Dec., whereas US trade deficit expected to widen further from -38 bn US$ to -39.8 bn US$ - my bet is still on stronger CAD S/T - wud def be looking to sell USD/CAD rallies tom...fingers crossed - tks for feedback again!

London AR 22:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/EUR ticking upwards - anyone on ideas of support for $??

Brisbane L 22:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
[Daily bias  lower: 2.25%]
Next Rate Announcemt: Mar 2/Apr13. Speaking Circuit & Events: David Dodge,
Governor will speak to the Consejo Coordinador Empresarial on 'Policies for
Changing Times' at 9:50 a.m. (EST) in Mexico City. The speech will be published
on the Bank's Web site at 9:35 a.m. (EST). A press conference will be held at
15:40 a.m. (EST). The market continues to trade on the basis that 'no new news
is good news.' The money market is adamant in reaching a target on bills that
parallel their expectations of a 50 bp cut in rates by June
IFR

Brisbane L 22:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Mvs MMS have it

GVI john 22:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane-- I don't see that in Canadian money market rates. They are pricing in a 25bp cut before the risk turns in the direction of higher rates early next year. Personally, I feel that -50bps is POSSIBLE, but I am conflicted at ths point.

RIYAD 22:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello there ...Any suggestions about which pairs to trade?
Thank you

Ldn Mvs 22:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Looks like GBP getting small boost in thin mkt...............Brisbane, where did u hear this CAD info u mention there pls? cheers

Swiss DG 22:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Are we on for 1.2840. Any coments...

Brisbane L 22:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Anyone heard of this with the BOC
Market Expectations Back Working Toward 50 bp Cut

Brisbane L 22:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
US Fed custody holdings rose $8.598 bln in Feb 11 week
doesnt seem too bad does it

GVI john 22:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2810…. $/yen 105.40
DJIA 10,694, -44 pts…NASDAQ 2,074, -16 pts
10-yr 4.06%, +3 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI on...

Brisbane L 22:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning

London 22:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The chance of March hike not high. NAB given recent data

London 21:55 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
There is talk of stops belowEuro 1.2785 and a break of that
level could see gaps filled back towards 1.2710.

Eilat Dolphin 21:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Did Greeny say something new ? Did any Respectable Eurocrat yell anything since yesterday ?

If not, are the $ bears blemishing ?

Cairns aussie 21:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
dolphin..nice one, I'm looking for a charting system not a trading system...I trade with censored but the charts they supply are very poor..I have been with K..no thanks

Ldn 21:53 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
High rates taking their Toll and will do the same in Oz

Ldn 21:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, traditionally the busiest shopping month of the year, putting pressure on the country's central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at its March policy statement.
By region, seasonally adjusted sales fell 0.2% in the heavily populated Auckland region, fell 5.7% in the Waikato, a key farming region, and in the South Island region of Cantebury were down 1.1%.

Eilat Dolphin 21:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Aussie/ Draw a four centimeters line to the left of your post, find a four letter word in a euro country eight letters long, the last one being K.

Ldn 21:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUSTRALIAN housing finance data is due later at 00.30GMT and is expected to fall for the third consecutive month as RBA rate hikes begin to bite. The CB has already lifted rates on two occasions in November and December and this has added approximately A$66 a month in rapoyments to an A$200k mortgage over a 30 year repayment period.. Home loan approvals are expected to drop 2% in December this a median of 20 economists with a range of -6%-+1%. Approvals fell 3.9% in Nov
Rtrs

USA Biscuit Boy 21:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the advice Nottingham. Sounds like shorting mad cow :)

Cairns aussie 21:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
could any of you guy's tell me who supply's the best Forex charting system, or do any of you have a preference

Barcelona JP 21:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks a lot boys, I go to sleep.

Good luck to all!!!

Aden PK 21:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP, Cable is looking overbought some correction is required before it move higher.

Support 1.8892 hourly low, 1.8830 38.2% of 1.8940 to 1.8650

Nottingham 21:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
For carries consider audcad and nzdcad...neither experience the problematic dips associated with usd weakness vis a vie the chf (thru euro) or nzdjpy...gl gt

Barcelona JP 21:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
That's why I closed GBP. Looks like it need to retrace to 1,8866-1,8837-1,8802.

la gold 21:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
JP. or, if you want to sleep tight.
take profit on one(CAD), and keep the(GBP),because
it is interst positive overnight. Its a trade off- what's
the value of a good night sleep= priceless.

Aden PK 21:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Jp, Good decession considering risk reward ratio, you can always buy on dip again near 1.8880-85 short term for atleast 1.8950, Dlr/Cad I feel you can see again 1.31-13120 by tomorrow or early next week. Good Luck and nice sleep

Barcelona JP 21:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, Lahore!!!

USA Biscuit Boy 21:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Not really worried about the gain just the yield differential on those ones. The less volatile the better. With the SNB looking firm on keeping eur/chf in check while BOE and RBA not too concerned I'd like to have a punt. I'll just slowly build up a small possie over the next few months and see if it comes out net profitable by years end.

lahore FM 21:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona jp,keep both especially GBP.

Barcelona JP 20:58 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thaks, Aden.

I've closed GBP at 1,8913. Keep Caddy.

Aden PK 20:55 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP, You have good positions, I suggest keep it. USD/Cad I believe will not able to spike above 1.3240, GBP/USD slight tricky there is substantial demand at 1.8850 and then at 1.88

I feel it will be up tomorrow and then retrace. the right stop should be 1.8735 you can take decession in this scenioro, good luck and good trade

la gold 20:53 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
BB, if you think that the GBP and AUD will gain strenght.
Then, they will gain more against the USD, then the CHF.

Barcelona JP 20:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
To be or not to be

Should I go to sleep with my long GBP/USD at 1,8900 and my short Caddy at 1,3210 positions on or should I square them now?

USA Biscuit Boy 20:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Well with rates locked low in Switzerland and the SNB applying the brakes maybe it would pay to enter some longer term gbp/chf and aud/chf longs. I'll see how it goes for the next few months.

Dallas GEP 20:33 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Well intervention would be reported but MANIPULATION would not!!! LOL Yeah forgot that "C" . I get to typing fast and the letters come flying off the keyboard!!!!!

USD/JPY is pipping up

Barcelona JP 20:32 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
la gold 20:22 GMT February 12, 2004
buiscuit boy, swiss wil follow the euro,
with a slight increment differential.

But the other way.

la gold 20:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
buiscuit boy, swiss wil follow the euro,
with a slight increment differential.

USA Biscuit Boy 20:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanx Dallas. Is that overtly or covertly lol?? Haven't read any info on SNB intervention but maybe I missed it.

Paris JC 20:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thank you all for your help and good luck

Paris JC 20:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
EC Q4 GDP at 12:00 CET?

Swiss DG 20:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy,
Thanks for the message. Unfortunately, I am still novice in currency trading and can not advice you about reasons why swissy as softened. Maybe someone else can help! thanks.
Daniel

Johannesburg C 20:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Anybody in EUR long?

Moskow 20:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
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Warwick Sat 20:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Oui, 12 CET !

Dallas GEP 20:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
BB, I think SNB is overtly intervening in the market IMO.

Paris JC 20:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
so it's 12 o'clock CET?

Warwick Sat 20:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
EC, Q4, GDP @ 11:00 GMT

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 20:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Paris,

EC GDP is at 6.00EST

Paris JC 20:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello.. Does anyone know what time is the EC GDP coming out tomorrow?

USA Biscuit Boy 20:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Swiss I am personally waiting for a chance to buy eur/usd at lower levels closer to 1..2700. Do you have experience trading chf? Im starting to think yield players are selling chf in favor of selling dollars against the higher yielding currencies. Is this the reason swissy has softened? It would seem a smart play given the potential for rate rises sometime this year in the US. Any comments anyone? TIA.

Swiss DG 20:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD anyone can help? What's next...

Barcelona Tony 19:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
will usdchf break 60 min 50EMA overnight? wow..that would be ...;-) gt gl

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dropped in and picked up some usd/jpy long from 105.38. Will add more long if 105.25 is seen. Out again.

Ldn 19:50 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino if your around your take on the Aud would be helpful thanks

Ldn 19:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Also this end of year book closing for Japanese firms
AUD/JPY could suffer in Asia if the rumors of large JPY purchases in Tokyo are manifested

Ldn 19:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Chicago option I hear

Chicago 19:44 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham: This CTA is known for scaling out of trades. My guess is that he is lightening up ahead of the weekend.

Nottingham 19:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
one more thing on aud, cross action very supportive today particularly the carry culprits..gl gt

Nottingham 19:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
chicago: heard an exotic barrier there myself but nobody willing to stand up and confirm...interesting about your seller on upticks as it seem buyer on downticks also present but maybe not imm

Livingston nh 19:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
selling USD/JPY at 35 / s/l 105.55

Chicago 19:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldn: an IMM option or OTC????

Paris jony 19:30 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
is there is anyone can exiplan to me whats going on with EUR/USD AND USD/YEN is this a new way between boj and the ECB ton stop this move..thanks

Ldn 19:29 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Chicago option at 79 being protected talk of asia owner , Aud may drop back pre housing data in a few hours may be a bad number due to the two rate hikes

Chicago 19:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
IMM AUD: Same CTA is selling AD in small. Again he is only selling on upticks. FWIW.

Ldn 19:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Oz housing finance due today data is expected to fall once more in December thanks to the two RBA hikes at the end of 2003 bad number can squash thoughts of rate hike anytime soon

london p 19:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
just reported on cnbc bird flu is in north america no further news

Livingston nh 19:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP - how long are you going to ride in the CADDY - looks like it held again at the 55 da EMA

LAX-LGB SNP 19:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
JP dont let the Mrs hear you say that

Global-View 19:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENT

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Barcelona JP 19:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I love you, CADDY

Ldn 19:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
US GOVTS: Budget Deficit Smaller than Expected at $1.4 bln

Ldn 19:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
US GOVTS: Budget Deficit Posts Smaller Deficit than Expected

Chicago 19:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
IMM British Pound: Being told that there is a "black-box" CTA on the offer side. Same man as yesterday. Doesn't seem to be in any hurry, just slowly letting go of some paper on upticks.

Barcelona JP 19:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
[19:01 US GOVTS: Budget Deficit Posts Smaller Deficit than Expected]



[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]

To BA 19:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Treasury Budgets were suppose to come at 2:00 P.M. eastern. Does anyone know anything?

Chicago 18:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The negatives for gold are the divergences vs currencies and silver.

Chicago 18:55 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Re: Gold. Comex April contract resistance at 414.8-416.0. High today 414.4. Closed 414.2. Downtrend line created in January has been broken so s/t trend is bullish but resistance ahead.

Ldn 18:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY could suffer in Asia if the rumors of large JPY purchases in Tokyo are manifested

Deauville Nico 18:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
WARNING!!!!
GOLD TOUCHED A NEW HIGH.
hope this will give inspiration to euro buyers....

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 18:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hey guys,

tomorrow is the Eurozone GDP at 6.00EST
Does this will have any impact on the Euro?

Dallas GEP 18:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
back in Asia

Ldn 18:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
NZ PRESS: High NZD Blamed For Likely Job Cuts At Feltex

Barcelona JP 18:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Like my short caddy at 1,3210 and my long GBP/USD at
1,8900

Barcelona JP 18:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bristol - David -

You know, Gaudi was gorgeous. Good things take time to finish.

Ldn 18:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The RBA has sold Aud 1bln monthly rising to Aud 2bln recently to add to its foreign reserve

beijing road 18:02 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Trailed stop from 1.2630 to 1.2680, offline to bed. See u tomorrow.

Quezon Mailman 17:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
If eur 1.2820/25 holds, expect it to slide again towards the 1.2795/90 area. what's new anyway?

LAX-LGB SNP 17:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP - true that
yet i am leaning towards USD retracing its steps

UK/Bristol David 17:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:44 GMT - Hello JP. Was in Barca 2 weeks ago. Just off the Ramblas - Hotel Gaudi. Its abut tme you finished that Cathedral!

ICT ML 17:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
That mate in Aussie was lucky there weren't bigger carpet sharks around.....his bleeding leg might not have made it back to the beach....LOL

Tomorrow....we feed :->

london p 17:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
arent these consolidations at highs lows simply unwinding oversold over bought conditions ready to resume there origional directions.

Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SNP, it's like the cows provided the milk and butter for the thanksgiving dinner but the Turkey is FULLY committed.!!! LOL

Barcelona JP 17:44 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Time to dance?

Dallas GEP 17:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
As long as things are going to be this slow, you might as well long usd/jpy and wait around for 12 hours!!!!!

Dallas GEP 17:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Funny as helllll SNP. Irish, good article!!!!

LAX-LGB SNP 17:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
today's ranges've been tighter than dolly parton's trainer bra ... going to make for tres interesting fireworks on Friday

by this time tomorrow the bulls may or may not advance and the bears may or may not lose their grip but the pigs will definitely get gored ;-)

Ldn 17:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
thats it greenspan finished they dont half drag it out he was ready to go for a cupa tea

Chicago Irish 17:33 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP:Or you could also deal with it this way

Dallas GEP 17:33 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Resting for a bit here guys, I think we will have more of the same. This is too much like work!!!

Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
QIP, yes there are and if they manage to eat off one of our legs then we will just swim around in circles!!!!!

Nassau QF (newb) 17:28 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
1hr chart for me on Cable and Eur.

Barcelona JP 17:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
So, now it's flat. Are they happy then?

Nassau QF (newb) 17:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Those BB are tight on Cable also Sofia VKD.
Tighter than EUR/USD

Barcelona JP 17:26 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ECB more worried about EUR fluctuation than the rate itself.

Mersch dixit.

Chicago 17:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
If we do break to the downside then I think we could run into a bunch of trailing stops, especially in the euro and as we continue lower cable trailing stops will come into play.

Warwick Sat 17:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP, good call (short EUR), finally did reach your target..Keep upi the good work..

Paris jony 17:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hello stockholmza yeastrday uv got right with the eur /usd it just stoped on one place how do u you see it today thanks

Sofia QIP 17:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Any sharks in the pond... ? )

sf mike 17:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
down

Sofia VKD 17:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bolinger Bands are narrowing on 30 min chart EUR/USD.
Probably follow fast move, but which direction?

nyc mark 17:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thank Andres

Van jv 17:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Possibly forming double top

Chicago 17:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I'm sure this flat-lining has attracted a number of less-than-committed shorts. "Never sell a dull market"....where did I hear that?

Dallas GEP 17:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
MArk 1.2845 on my platform

Chicago 17:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I cannot remember when euro spent 24hrs stuck in a 50-75pip horizontal range.....

Dallas GEP 17:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Closed Euro short @ +15 pips.

This Euro reminds me of a duck on a pond. On the surface, he is very calm but you know just beneath the surface his feet are paddling like hellll but he ain't getting nowhere fast.!!! LOL

Pecs Andras 17:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
mark
44/49

Pecs Andras 17:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco, February 12th: Traders are eyeing closely Greenspan"s comment, that if foreign investment demand eases, US rates could rise. While he downplayed any impact from a cessation of massive intervention yesterday, today he acknowledges the likely risk to the market. There remain ongoing concerns that continuing to allow the USD to fall will sap investment demand from the overseas markets. The comment however has had little impact, with EUR/USD still holding above 1.2805, but under session highs. USD/JPY remains heavy, but supported by intervention, at 105.38.

nyc mark 17:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
euro hi today gang? tia

Ldn 17:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
How long does the Speach go on for?? anyone know

Swiss DG 17:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Any news from Mr. G.??? what effect on eur/usd

Pecs Andras 17:02 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys for the views on AUD.

nyc jk 17:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Andras - AUD maintaining a bid tone after a Medley Advisors report earlier today suggesting another RBA rate hike to come. Personally, I think his reports contain no special insight, but the market has reacted by selling AUD futures and buying spot AUD. Sellers have been capping it ahead of .7900 but I think just a matter of time before it works its way higher.

Bris TW 16:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD
R4 .8000
R3 .7935
R2 .7905
R1 .7894

S1 .7845
S2 .7836
S3 .7816
S4 .7804

beijing road 16:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sorry, stronger not strong.

beijing road 16:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras : I see aud is getting much strong after double tops have been taken out.Just a newbie's thought.

Helsinki iw 16:55 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Kerry, infidelity? The "family values" mudslinging must be pretty
much as per expectations, I guess. From a European stand-
point a boring discussion.

Stockholm za 16:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD...... For pipraders Only... lol
18965-18948
18931-18926
18904
18882-18877
18860-18843
Range ~8998-:-8822
When it`s lost - it`s lost....
Trade safe.....

Safes nonstop 16:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD On 5 minute chart MA 20 has crossed down over MA 50, but spot price rising above M 20.
On 30 minute chart, price has been rising and not able to cross for more than 3 hours, but now MA 20 and also spot price is crossing down over MA 50.

London 16:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The next move is up to the Bank of Canada to orchestrate rates lower.This is exactly the stance taken after the conclusion of the official Bank of Canada addresses yesterday. The money market is adamant in reaching a target on bills that parallel their expectations of a 50 bp cut in rates by June

Quezon Mailman 16:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
this market is extremely active - it makes us take a nap.

Miami OMIL 16:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I believe he (greenspan) is holding up pretty well for his age IMO. (/;->

Ldnn 16:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
usa monster eh I never thought of that , they will

Pecs Andras 16:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Guys
I repeat my Q. Any views on AUD now?
TIA

usa monster 16:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
they can clone new greenspan

Ldnn 16:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
usa monster by the look of him he may not last that long , you would think he would want to give it away before they put him away

Livingston nh 16:44 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I think G'span resigns by Summer to let Pres Bush name a successor

Ldnn 16:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
usa monster

I think they already did

London London 16:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
How long does Greenspan go on for ???

Livingston nh 16:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - the USD/JPY has been ignored in the last week - some mild criticism by G'span of the Japanese intervention practices might be enough to shake it loose - this was certainly discussed at G7 and he may take a shot at this

Shelbyville MKT 16:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Drudge report

usa monster 16:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
americans will freeze him when be dead

Shelbyville MKT 16:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Kerry, infidelity

Ldnn 16:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan doent look too well since the last time I saw him, is he 75yrs now .. it must be that wife of his killing him with Looove

Dallas GEP 16:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
CD, In have quite a few expessions regarding confusion!!! LOL

Joburg cd 16:29 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Gep, still builing your encyclopedia of southern expressions? Last time you were as confused as a puppy with two tails...

Think its time to close up shop on that eur short.

Dallas GEP 16:28 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I think BUY range on usd/cad is 1.3180 and sell range is 1.3220

Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ram, Who said anything about 1.60????? I am as confused as a siamese twin at suppertime.

USA Biscuit Boy 16:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. A nothing day so far. Still waiting for a break of 1.2780/90 in euro for a chance to buy on a dip closer to 1.2700. Hopefully volatility picks up soon :)

Sydney alimin 16:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
guys, when there is nothing to do, then do nothing :)

london ram 16:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
market closing in usa off course

Quezon Mailman 16:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sold eur 1.2826 earlier stop 1.2851. target 1.2790

london ram 16:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep..so after all that you expect eur/$ to go to 1.600 during the closing of markets for three days!!!!

Pecs Andras 16:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Guys
any views on AUD?
it looks pretty exhausted. Worth a quick short?

Miami OMIL 16:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Road 1.2780 is holding better than I expected and the data out of US that came out earlier did not help either. Greenspan’s questionnaire that is happening right now is not going to move the market IMO. I believe the market right now is searching for anything to push either way (1.2850 or 1.2780). I will wait for any moves from either support or resistance but it is hard to tell how far the market will take this dip IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AB thought about that myself re eUR/GBP BUT NOT MUCH RANGE!!!!!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
gd night, not much movement left.

may try short eur/gbp .6780.
limit on eur/chf placed as well as stops.

eur/aud can let it run, I think.

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I see no really thrilling possies right now. This euro short is LAZY and really has shown some slight bullishness by staying around this 1.2820/25 area. WIll close at BE soon if no movement.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
place one more limit at eur/chf 1.5730

beijing road 16:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : EUR 1h 50 and 100sma is at 1.2730-1.2750 level, maybe it indicates it is hard to see eur will go down there soon, any view abt this plz?

Quezon Mailman 16:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
fall of the eur slowly shaping up from current fig.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp cannot tackle .68 today is v. bearish...imvho.

Chambery FR JFB 16:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEp : thx...

sgp sp 16:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
congrats, good 4 u

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I had taken one long from 1.1250 to 1.1300 already.
Now keeping 1 lot at 1.1168 and limit at 1.1260 to long now.

think pair is ready to test those t/l on the top.

Dallas GEP 15:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
JFB, I try to determine bounce points and since I feel 1.2790 is bounce point , I simply add the spread to get my TP PLUS 1-2 pips so 1.2790 BID for me is 1.2795 ASK THEN When you add +1 you get 1.2796.

sgp sp 15:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I have a limit order placed at 1.1250 as well....what level r u looking at to t/p? noting what nottingham had pointed out to me..:)

Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
RAM, range on Euro right now in a general sense is 1.2820 to 1.2790 so you could go either way. For NOW, technically there is more support for SHORTING eur/usd. 1.2775 should hold the bottom and 1.2850 should contain the top so pick your poison!!!!

Chambery FR JFB 15:50 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP, may I ask how you determine this 1.2796 plz? t/l or what? really curious :-) TIA

SA Bok 15:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Seems to me the Market is taking it easy and now looking to Trade Balance Number tomorrow ..

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sp// I will add again if it retraces to 1.1250-70 area.

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
1.2796 BUT it will be very whippy.

sgp sp 15:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 15:40 GMT February 12, 2004, thank you, will take note of it.

gl & gt 2 u 2

Quezon Mailman 15:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas-GEP. just got back. My usd/chf 1.2291 is still floating. I don't know but I really have a feeling that USD has a mounting surprise after the sell out yesterday.

london ram 15:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep what,s your opinion now to buy the $ or should buy the eur?thanks

usa monster 15:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT February 12, 2004
1.2820 short
t/p?

Nottingham 15:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 15:37 GMT

50% retracement of fall at 1.1324 (1.1568/1.1080)...would expect sellers there...gl gt

Dallas GEP 15:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Nasty DOJI on euro candle

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
stop above 1.2850

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
1.2820 short

Belgrade Knez 15:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   

Can you please tell me who is good in fundamentals here?

beirut jb 15:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP Hi traders, U r right GEP grenspan good comment is already priced in the market only new bad comment by him could drop the market,

sgp sp 15:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, sorry took so long to reply, a bit of connection problem here. do not have any aud/nzd longs.....wanted to put in a limit order at your level but my connection was lost.....what do u think....1.14 & 1.15 in the horizon?

phils VL 15:33 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Greeny cant afford to be inconsistent with his lower dollar policy, but if ECB did complain strongly, he'll have to reinforce his dollar policy with further qualifications and explanations... may stabilise usd somewhat...?

Miami OMIL 15:32 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP you are the king pipraider. It will be very hard for the market to react like yesterday on old news IMHO. (/;->

london ram 15:29 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
thanks a lot dallas gep

Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ram, Greenspan will say holding interest rates can be held at these lower levels for some time JUST like he said yesterday. All this has already been priced in marketplace IMO. However if he brings up something NEW than that could me market moving but as far as which direction, I don't have a clue!!! LOL

Barcelona JP 15:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Mr Bubble faces Q&A now.
With the jobless higher he is not going to change what he said yesterday. I think.

Livingston nh 15:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
IMHO - G'span is in front of the Senate today - the questions tend to be a little more sophisticated and less parochial than the House -- currency questions will probably be related to foreign relations and trade with China and Japan getting more attention than EUR

london ram 15:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep.and what do you think that this twitching gonna be to up or down

Barcelona JP 15:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi!!

Shorted Caddy again at 1,3210.
S/L 1,3265
T/ 1,3075

Dallas GEP 15:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Regarding Greenspan, there will be a Q & A session at that meeting SO, we could see some twitching based on his responses to the committee.

Rivonia PipPirate 15:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP Haha, you could be right but, just outside Memphis, highway61, sleepy little town down by the Mississippi river, I'd be looking out for Pappa bears guarding their daughters with sawn off shotguns.
Those lazy yen trades of yours are good for some easy pips!!

Memphis Charles 15:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Competition Cams.... I know the company well. Good luck.

Sydney alimin 15:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
mr G could create some more volatility, imagine this 100 pips down straight on eur/usd hehe who knows...

GA TJ 15:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan"s monetary policy report to the Senate, which
begins at 15:00gmt;

london ram 15:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
in what time exactly will greenspan would talk??

Pecs Andras 15:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Is Greenpan going to talk soon?

Dallas GEP 15:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Not sure RAM. Lokks like dollar now tho is taking a hit

SA Bok 15:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Or just a dull repeat .....

london ram 15:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hello dallas gep.dont you think that greenspan would repeat now his previous talk yesterday

SA Bok 15:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Greenie Time ...round no 2 ... in the left corner we have the USD and in the right corner we have the Currencies ... Let the fight begin ... will it be a tough 12 rounder or a quick knock out ... Ding Dong ... LOL

madrd val 15:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Is grandapa G speaking?

Dallas GEP 14:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Pipirate, sounds like the NOTELL Motel!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 14:53 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Charles, my son and I will there in Memphis May 1st weekend for the Hot Rod Pump Gas Drags race. Comp Cams and Hot Rod co-sponsor that race. We will be the ones in a RED hot rod 2000SS Camaro (LOL).

CADDY bears watching. Don't quite have the handle on that yet.

Rivonia PipPirate 14:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:41 According to Tony Joe White you can get "anything you need at the Tunica Motel", just for future ref.

Chicago 14:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
What a difference a year makes. Just booked our annual trip to London. Nice hotel (off-season) GBP295. Last year the FX was around 1.60. Today around 1.90. 10 days trip.....you do the math....

Memphis Charles 14:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
It's a strange place. My parents are from the Miss. Delta, so as a child we grew up driving through Tunica to visit family. At that time, Tunica County was the poorest county in the U.S. The contrast between then and now is very profound.

OK SZ 14:44 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, Gep...:) I haven't seen that term used in a long time...BFE:)

Dallas GEP 14:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Charles, Tunica is in the middle of a dammmm corn field!!! LOL. We stopped there 2 years ago on the Hot Rod Power Tour and I thought we were in BFE!!!!!

Memphis Charles 14:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hey Sarasota... yep, we go to Tunica a few times a year.

London London 14:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Sentiment also goes down the drain when your currency is in it
so the Fed have to be careful of knocking the Dollar too low .

Dallas GEP 14:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
PK, you can usually tell (not always) by how fast and by how much the price action bounces off said proce point. So IE if we get to 1.2820 again and it IMMEDIATLEY bounces down to say 1.2813/14 then I would say there are still probably good size offers STILL at that level.

Chicago 14:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Most markets will be closed on Monday in the US. We saw some fireworks ahead and after Jan's long weekend- I don't expect the same, but you never know.

port jeff ac 14:32 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
i will call you later. thanks for the help

Dallas GEP 14:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Squared out @ 1.2810 on Euro long for +18. Technicals are short on Euro right now.

saloniko 2004 nk 14:26 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
PAR 14:15 GMT February 12, 2004

I think that Mr G. want to press ECB for action but frome the other side ECB think that if someone want action why not do it alone..

a simple thought

by nk

Global-View 14:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
port jeff ac 14:21 GMT February 12, 2004 - your questions are suited for our Help Forum, not the Forex Forum and I sent you an email offering help.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
add eur/aud long 1.6240 s/l 1.6223 now together with the one at 1.6250

Bucharest Razvan 14:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hey there dc...

What happened to Oilman? I miss his views and sense of humor :)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
citibank dot hk has a good explanaiton there.


port jeff ac 14:21 GMT February 12, 2004

ICT ML 14:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Morning JK....same tidbits I got then.......personally plan on gunning through the barriers Friday....but if that fails, we'll just play it as it lies....LOL

Van Gecko was dead on earlier with Gbp/Jpy 200 being a major point of concern.....but I'm thinking carry trades being re established after some book closing in December should help drive it through.....

But we'll see

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
lock in 50 pips from the long @ 1.1250 first.

port jeff ac 14:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Can someone explain to me what a " large vanilla option is " and also can anyone recommend some trtading software that helps you pick buy/sell points, turning points, breakouts, etc....Thanks for the help

Aden PK 14:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:14 GMT February 12, 2004
Hi, just curious. Say when 1.2820 is reached next and starts vibrating a few pips around, just how you decide that such vibration is a sign of NEW BUY ORDERS (a move towards 1.2839) or NOT? This has been my bggest problem! GL/GT

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
nt, I really hate these "mouthful" move.....

the aud/nzd makes me happier today.

added at daily low 1.1250
now have 1.1250, 1.1168

hong kong nt 14:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab -- feel Dr Green may say sthg trying to neutralise the effect of his last speech...

London 14:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD option barriers at 0.7900 are being heavily defended,

Bucharest Razvan 14:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Card counters should have a union and picket Vegas..

bucharest dc 14:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
salut

Bucharest Razvan 14:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
weird action on EUR.. still waiting 1.29 to be challenged one of these days...

You guys think ECB will endure 1.30+? Or, more importantly, will the FED give a crap about it and lend a hand to pull EUR down?

Also, why in the world are card counters banned from casinos? It's not illegal!! :)

nyc jk 14:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks for the EUR view GEP. re blackjack true you may not win many more hands, but your expected value is increased to slightly positive from negative because of those larger bets on high probability hands, at least until the casino catches on and bars you from playing there, lol.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
gd, aud/nzd moves on his way now. two trendlines right on 1.14 and 1.15 respectively in daily.

PAR 14:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
At his age Greenspan maybe doesnt remember what he said yesterday.

Dallas GEP 14:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
With next run to 1.2820, if NEW offers are found I will square out, if not I will try for 1.2839

Ldn 14:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Suspicious Bids In USD/JPY

Shelbyville MKT 14:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I was wondering about that post myself>>>>>>

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
There is an option defense @ 1.2850 apparently. I would expect the market to draw towards that. 1.2820 as I said is resistance fairly strong. High much earlier was 1.2849

sarasota jf 14:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ml- hi - nthg - some zar n mxp stuff but i dont follow those too much - systems traders - some people got buried in cad yesterday and the gbp buyers are so far away now - how can u be sure for todays range /? no ideas here today

LA saint3 14:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
so nobody knows the direction of gbp/usd yet?
TIA

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
bc, you need to work v. late today.

nyc jk 14:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hi ML , fwiw a couple of small snippets that were passed on to me, barriers in GBP at 1.9000 and in GBP/JPY 200.00. Also some talk about a channel top in GBP/JPY at that same level.

Chicago Irish 14:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Revdax.....it was USD so about 1360rmb

ICT ML 14:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Morning JF...any GBP levels of interest today?....my M.E. friends still long?

hk revdax 14:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 13:58//I don't believe you could hire anyone in Shanghai for rmb175 a month.

By the way, if $/JY stays up today, what would the rest of the fx mkt do? Will come back to read your reply after a hard rub. TIA

Dallas GEP 14:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
JK, 1.2820 is definitely resistance but it PROBABLY will break. Regarding blackjack, card counting allows you to bet heavier on the hands you have a higher probability of winning. The house will still win more hands over a period of time.

Shelbyville MKT 14:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello Forum

Ldn 14:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
German Economics Minister Wolfgang Clement, who said Thursday that the euro "can't take the full burden of the dollar's decline."

sarasota jf 14:02 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
charles - where u live in memphis - i lived in cordova for a while - u tip toe down to the grand occassionally ?

Memphis Charles 14:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Certainly seems plausible that the ECB would complain. 'Ole Alan really greased them up and let them have in the bee-hee. I think the man is senile. May just be my book talking.

Nottingham 13:59 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I seem to remember that once he did change a few words or left something out, can't remember which...but anyway, we shall see

Ldn 13:58 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Wary going into the speech as can change his wordiing without difficulty

Chicago Irish 13:58 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
bc:Cracked up laughing when I heard that a Chinese manufacturer started outsourcing to N.Korea because he felt his monthly wage bill of $170 per month to his workers in Shanghai was too high.

Chicago Irish 13:55 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldn.....In any event,even if Greenspan moderates what he said the genie is out of the bottle.

shanghai bc 13:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   

But Sir Alan told China bashers (re Rmb and job issue) in US political circles that they are barking up the wrong tree..When he visits Beijing next time,he should be awarded a medal at the same level as knighthood in Britain for his fight against protectionism..

ldn 13:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Asked to tone done view or what he has been told to say.

Ldn 13:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh something i am hearing

Livingston nh 13:50 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - it would be very unusual for G'span to change the text of speech on back to back presentations

SA Bok 13:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 13:46 GMT - Good Rumour no base ..

Belgrade Knez 13:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Mishanya 13:46 GMT February 12, 2004

Thanks Misha.
I am on Yahoo messenger if you would like to talk.
Regards,
Pedja.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hm.. Can aud/nzd crack 1.13 tonight?.....

SBP Mike 13:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Green's @15gmt, right? And what time is Snow?

Ldn 13:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hearing Greenspan tone down his speech after ECB complained

Moscow Mishanya 13:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan speaks at 15GMT

nyc jk 13:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP - good purchase on the EUR , I think this 1.2780/90 area a key support for now, hold it and we could see at least 1.2845/50 again, any particular reason why you see 25 now as a resistance? also re the blackjack, card counters can hold a 0.2-0.5% edge over the house......

saloniko 2004 nk..1.2666-1.3058 13:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko 10:04 GMT February 12, 2004

Agree!

Good Morning..
Euro need another shake-shake close to 1.2666 to prove that the way for 1.30 is open..

Euro/gbp right now dont want to help Euro to crack 1.29 and might this Euro up move was a false break for another test of 1.2650

imho
nk

Ldn 13:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Wiith the housing market easing and the AUD rise curbing inflation,that bet may be a losing one. There is little risk to the economy of the RBAstanding pat and the market may be underestimating the likelihood of this event, favor selling the current rally in Aussie crosses.
AUD Rumors Of Option Barriers 79 IFR

Belgrade Knez 13:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   

Can anybody confirm that Greenspan is talking today at 15:00 GMT. No changes?

Thanks.

Dallas GEP 13:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Technicals are saying short Euro but data is worse than expected on JOBLESS claims and BETTER than expected on AUTO SALES. WTF????

Dallas GEP 13:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Longed @ 1.2792 Euro looking for 1.2825 BIAS tho IMO is SHORT

Ldn 13:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Canadian Dec, new motor vehicle sales was -9.5% vs -8.8% expected

Ldn 13:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
US Jobless Claims : Bad Weather In Southeast Is Blamed
US January Retail Sales Take Surprise Drop

US Retail & Food Sales Revised To +0.2% From +0.5%

US January Retail & Food Sales Ex-Autos +0.9%
US January Retail & Food Sales -0.3%; Consensus +0.1%

US Jan 31 Week Jobless Claims Revised To 357K From 356K
US Jan 31 Week Continuing Claims -23K to 3,083,000
US Jobless Claims +6K To 363K Feb 7 Week; Survey -11K

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
we have another greensy tonight.....might be he wants to add the fuel after this retracement.:)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:30 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
long eur/aud 1.6250 on limit.

Dallas GEP 13:30 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Closed Eur/JPY short for +35 pips

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sp, in aud/nzd trade yet?

Nottingham 13:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Big lvl for usdcad here...i would say needs to stay below 1.3215 to have chance of fresh lows...i reckon plenty of stops above 1.3215/20 which could take it to 1.3240/50 then 1.33 fig if builds a head of steam...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
cool, the aud/nzd is willing to move now.

Ldn 13:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the hourly charts, the consolidation in EUR/USD looks like it has gone on too long to have much legs to the upside in the near-term. A dips back below 1.2785/90
looks increasingly likely, as a result. Small stops are seen under that level. Good support is seen at 1.2710 on dips. One factor working against the EUR at the moment is the increasing likelihood that China will finally relent and engineer a small revaluation of the Yuan. This would be most welcomed by the ECB, and reduce the burden on the EUR to
accommodate adjustments in the US current account imbalance. There is also minorconcern that Greenspan may modify his rhetoric on the dollar a bit
AFt

phils VL 13:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AB

usd/jpy - unless your good friend comes in.... well then 106.60 is a possibility. Or unless you anticipate EZ CBs will retaliate and show their true colors to push euro dwn..dwn.. then yes,

Dallas GEP 13:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Mailman Euro should break down, bounces up from fig are getting shallower

phils VL 13:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AB

your 100 pip profit target = 106.40 right? maybe a bit tough...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
remove eru/aud order will do it on spot

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ok, VL, I longed 105.40

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
come on, eur/aud

phils VL 13:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AB

usd/jpy - I hv been long coupla days frm 42, although bias is up, may be tough to hit 106.60 today. As long as confident 105 wl be protected and mkt does not go there, anything abv 50 pips profit is good or easy money ...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
long little eur/chf 1.5765

chicago cal 13:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
cable players might want to buy or add to longs on a break above 1.8950 for 1.9050/1.9100 area

gl,gt

Quezon Mailman 12:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, what's your view for the eur/usd? I have been floating since yesterday usd/chf bought @1.2291. I will take a break after this for a short time travel. thanks.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Andras, long.

Pecs Andras 12:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ab
Are you short or long?
What level do you expect?

Ltn th 12:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Are others having trouble with kitco lg or is it just me? It usually means our finny friends are up to serious mischief when this happens!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
will exit with anything more than 100 pips today on dlr/jpy.

van Gecko 12:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY may had been a major contributing factor in GBP/USD's 33 figure bull run from Septrember & its subsequent break above the 1.70 decade long range cap..
GBP/USD bulls shooting for the 2.0000 moonscapes from here should watch GBP/JPY like a hawk as it approaches the multi-year 200 cap once again.. failure to sustain a weekly close above 200 would tilt the odds for a substantial retracement for both pairs..
the 1.8950/1.9050 100 pip band may be a bull trap zone for break-out artists & offer vely good risk/reward shorting opportunties for her majesty's brave m/t contarian soldiers.. fwiw..



ln 12:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Just to get a show of hands (or clicks). How many expect the ECB to intervene before 1.3000?

GVI john 12:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2820…$/yen 105.50
DJIA +2 pts… 10-yr 4.03%, 0 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
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sarasota jf 12:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ab - yes i posted a few days ago that there was a good sell order in this - it goes lower

beijing road 12:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
IMHO, following the trend
1)following the direction of price movement.
2) following the larger time frame once short time trade is established sucessfully (sometime need to reset the stoploss depend on personal risk management).

Quezon Mailman 12:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 12:10 GMT February 12, 2004. thanks, i appreciate the logic.

dallas, what you said is true. general direction comes from the 30min to 1hr chart. thanks for reiterating.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, I longed some dlr/jpy.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
jf, are you also watching eur/gbp now?

sarasota jf 12:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Quezon Mailman 12:03 GMT February 12, 2004
the one distinct advantge you have is that you can let your profits run while setting a loss point- perhaps you could do well with the 5 minute chart but you would have to let some run to cover a successive run of outs - otherwise you would blow up like most people do

Dallas GEP 12:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Mailman, the 5 minute chart is VERY good for determining entry and exit points AFTER you have confirmed direction using 30 and 1 hour charts. Playing the 5 minute charts by themselves is a mistake ESPECIALLY in a whippy market.

Helsinki iw 12:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/USD has been hugging the bollinger midpoint band
for the last few hours on the hourly studies (currently at
1,2814 rising some 5 pips/hour). An hourly close below should
see some rertacement at least toward 1,2750/60. On the
bigger picture largely agree with Athens et al. Looking for
spikes to enter m/t short euros. IMHO

Quezon Mailman 12:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, good friend. I saw comment that one does not (or would not) experience fortunes from forex if he is going to play the 5 minute chart. Is this a fact? Are there traders who had good equity performance history (successful) by just playing the 5-minute chart and be content at 10-15 pips profit? thanks for your comments.

Dallas GEP 12:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Well ZA the odds are better at gambling. The house has only a 4-5% advatage over a very good blackjack player!!! LOL

Stockholm za 11:58 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
There is a tin line between trading and gambling…
Or do I have it all mix up ???

Dallas GEP 11:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/jpy @ 135.25

Quezon Mailman 11:50 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
euro 1.2830 good selling at least before the us data with stop above the high.

Dallas GEP 11:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Adventurous trader could take POUND long at figure with 30 pip stop and have a decent chance at profit. Market moving data @ 13:30. BEST IMO probably NOT to trade until ranges become wider.

Melbourne Qindex 11:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Stockholm za 11:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.....
In as much as fundamentals may rule the market in terms of trend, direction & cycle it cannot over shadow the technical aspects of the market …. However it does grate damage to pipraders, scalpers & 5 minuets chart Profs.
Technicals keep us with in the reality of what is ….
Price at value – market profile – where & when – The time factor …..
Technicals always make sence => individual interpritation....
If not, then we can sit back and wait to buy at parity again …. AIMOHO….
Happy trades....

Melbourne Qindex 11:33 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment  . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Quezon Mailman 11:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi fellow traders!

Meantime, just want know your comments re: long congestion of usd/chf. Based on my studies, a long congestion after a strong move down will be followed by a correction upwards. In this case, if 1.2270/60 holds, i think we are looking at fresh rally from here. good r/r too. thanks

Melbourne Qindex 11:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 11:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. Took the session off so far due to the fact I thought we might have some consolidation. Looking at it now and the rnages do appear to be very tight.

Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Nottingham Daniel 11:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Interesting point follow Nottingham - I am looking for GBPUSD to drop around the same level - EUROUSD to follow down around1.277X
I hav a little problem with USDCHF - which was due to a mistake on my part - I am hoping that it will rise to around 1,2315 - this will rectify my mistake!

Gen dk 11:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Stockholm za 11:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY.... today ..
8671-8637
8602-8592
8547
8502-8491
8457-8422
True at ~8712-:-8352
Happy trades

sarasota jf 11:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
bris tw- everytime i see someone point out a fibo level in usdyen it makes me laugh - they work ok in other markets - but in the mother of manipulation and coordination its a waste of brain power

London 11:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF Watanabe: Won't Rule Out Joint Intervention With ECB

Bris TW 11:01 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dont rule out MOF working with ECB at 1.30. Maybe ECB have already been in the market. (to my knowlege ) :-)

Nottingham 11:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
A word of warning to those long cable...only on one occasion in the last 7 years has cable failed at trade in a range which covered 2% above the 10 day sma and even on that day (23/0/03) it traded to within 10 pips of it and only made a higher high of 35 pips...so far today we have seen such a higher high and if events repeat we will see 1.8880...imo this would be the minimum retracement as although anything can happen, the fact that it has only happen once in thousands of trading days suggests counting on it happening again isn't the way to go...just my thoughts gl gt

Ldn 10:59 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Watanabe Provides Talking Point, ECB Set To Intervene?]

MOF Official Watanabe surprised some in the market by warning that that Japan is not ruling out the possibility of 'coordinated FX intervention EUR/USD is largely non-fussed by the comments, continuing to trade quietly around 1.2810/15. The 'no comment' is interesting for a number of reasons. It suggests that Japanese and Euro zone officials could have discussed such a move at the G7. Also, during the week beginning January 12, plenty of rumours hit the
market regarding ECB selling ahead of 1.2900 and at 1.2800, levels around the current price. A number of EU officials have warned that 1.30 is a 'threshold to a rather critical level' (Belgian Finance Minister Reynders). We are relatively
close to these levels. with the ECB'. An ECB official quickly replied with a 'no comment'.

It may be time for the late comers to the party to square !!!

Chambery FR JFB 10:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 10:45 GMT February 12, 2004
As far as I know (but I'm miles from being an expert!!), Japan is well known for its intervention policy, so JPY is artificially maintained at its current level, which (again in my knowledge) is not the case of other majors.
I would agree with you, Nottingham... my personal impatience often drives me to draw t/l, supports and resistance all over the place, which in the end, are just "decoration", as ML once stated :-)

hong kong nt 10:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab -- expecting some 1500 pts correction of hang seng, hope to see it soon...

Ldn 10:52 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
European bond prices a little too rich for some clients, says broker. View amongst investors is Greenspan's speech contained nothing new, beyond a few sentences on the USD, so limited value in buying at current levels
rtras

sarasota jf 10:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LDN MA 09:43 GMT February 12, 2004
thanks for that - ill be sure to throw anything from them in the bin as well

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:50 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
place limit on dlr/jpy 106.60 to exit and go for dinner now, see ya all later in NY.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
.6747 is the monthly sma 20 on eur/gbp.

may try a buy there with tight s/l underneath (20 pips)

Bris TW 10:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LDN MA 10:45 GMT
Are they? hmm maybe they use the same fib levels as I do.

hong kong nt 10:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab -- buying usd/chf at 1.22 several times maybe more fruitful than begging BOJ for some dessert...IMHO

Nottingham 10:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 10:40

Think "unimportant levels" of spt/res can break, but levels that would effect the bigger picture or even the smaller picture within the big picture (if u know what I mean) have a habit of holding...these levels tend to be further out and often make no difference in the end if the players position is well underwater/already taken out by the time it gets there and corrects...I think its really worthwhile spending some time on this as it can keep you out of the way of a moving fast train...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
nt, stock is too bullish imho.

nt, I think I Would like to trade more options in the future.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
JIMVHO, I felt that we will see some fireworks from MOF on dlr/jpy tonight, let's see.

hong kong nt 10:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab -- we may sell some euro at 1.280-1.290 and swiss at 1.220, we sell hang seng at 13660 today and hope it may work...

LDN MA 10:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW - Those levels are from the www.G7FOREX.com web site, are they not? Perhaps we should be fair and acknowledge the source.

Bris TW 10:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 10:40 GMT

Of course I expected to have a few bites to my concluding statement as you quoted me on in your previous message. It stopped because large buy orders ceased and players were taking profits. If I was to place 1 trill long euro right now do you seriously believe that technical levels will hold its rise?
The answer is no. Japan does it all the time technicals mean nothing in Yen. Technically us/yen should be 99 and lower.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
euraud orders remove. wait for new level.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
give me some meaningful move on dlr/jpy plz.....

Chambery FR JFB 10:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 10:23 GMT February 12, 2004
"Of course my technicals and most others however mean nothing when data is released from USA and most levels could be breached with relative ease."
With all due respect, I disagree with you... yday for example, the up move in EUR/USD died exactly on an ascending t/l... and even a second time a few hours later... Just to say that it was a bit optimistic to think this particular t/l was reachable in such a short timeframe, but it was a good resistance level :-) So maybe, we all need to look for support and resistance levels a bit further when numbers are about to come out, but it doesn't basically affects the way price are moving and our way of thinking... Just my two-cent-worth comment and of course imvho... GT GL

Nottingham 10:28 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
think consensus for jobs is about 346k and flat to mildly +ve retail sales

Bris TW 10:26 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Initial claims expected 340 from 356 previous

Bris TW 10:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
S2 = 1.2771

Brissy JM 10:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know the expectation for this weeks US initial claims? Thanks

Bris TW 10:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Along with eur/usd option protections at 1.2850 there is also the following resistance levels:
R1 1.2845 moderate Intraday high - Channel top at 1.2852
R2 1.2875 minor 2% moving average envelope around 10 day average
R3 1.2897 Major 06 January high
R4 1.2964 Minor January 1996 sythetic high

S1 1.2786 Minor with hourly support 1.2800
S2 Moderate 38.2% Fibo retrace of 1.2653-1.2845
S3 1.2749 Minor 50% retrace of 1.2653-1.2845
S4 1.2726 Moderate 61.8% Fibo of 1.2653-1.2845

Of course my technicals and most others however mean nothing when data is released from USA and most levels could be breached with relative ease.

Ldn 10:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko cheers

Nottingham 10:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
USDCAD...gd res at 1.3200/15...if any higher then much short covering imo...gl gt

Bris TW 10:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP major support level 1 is .6768 with 4 mth bear channel support at .6767
s2 .6753 minor 1% moving average envelope around 10 day average
s3 .6747 moderate 50% retrace of .6242-.7253
s4 minor march 03 low

Bris TW 10:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Several protection sales been made on euro around 1.2850 to help exotic option. Another is at 1.2875. It will take some bad US data to go through those levels. Expect to see the high 1.27s again.

Gen dk 10:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Madras KR 10:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:03 GMT .It can go to .6745/40 after which .6815 may be seen.GL.

van Gecko 10:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ldn.. near term, 1.2700/1,2650 should get tons of 'Buy On Dip for 1.30' support.. short term, range players will come in again ahead of 1.2350/00.. mid-term, 1.2000 should be tough to crack under the present dollar negative enviroment..
that said, the underlying dynamics of the eur/gbp & eur/jpy crosses are not m/t positive for euro..
road, nice to see your renaissance as a positional player with conviction..
cheerios



hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp a bottom or speedy dive?


.6750 door clicking....

still thinking what to do.
but seems bottom picking is easier, in terms of s/l and p/t

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
oops, just filled, 3 lots.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy looks fishy, seems some retracement could be done today or tom.

place order to long 105.40 now.

SA Bok 09:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 09:40
have to agree with your egg on face analogy and why not ? that is what salaried and cushy positions do to brilliant minds

Brilliant Minds , no just good brokers LOL ..

LDN MA 09:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Somebody asked a few weeks ago what had happened to the analysts from MMS since they were bought out last year...

At least some of them have ended up at a place called G7FOREX

www.G7FOREX.com

Nottingham 09:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
presiedent's day...dow closed but think bonds open, not sure

LDN LDN 09:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok: "Presidents Day"

SA Bok 09:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
May I ask what Holiday it is on Monday in US ... TIA

LAX-LGB SNP 09:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 05:34 GMT February 12, 2004
have to agree with your egg on face analogy and why not ? that is what salaried and cushy positions do to brilliant minds

dont wanna get into the mkt right now ... another 12-15 hours before NYC closes and then i'll be ready to lock and load on the contis

Ldn 09:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Geko whats you pull back level ?Euro

Ldn 09:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN
could see a bit of profit taking then

beijing road 09:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko : 0 or 100%.lol

SA Bok 09:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Stop missed by a pip ...

To me MACD on hourlies showing some weakness but then in this market techs in different zone .... to trend ...

LDN LDN 09:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
US markets close early on Friday and are closed Monday. What are views re: trend extention or reversal. Thx.

van Gecko 09:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
major monthly levels rarely get taken out on a 1st assult basis..
it took 5 months to take out 1.20.. so what are the odds for Euro taking out 1.29/30 on the 1st try ?

Ldn 09:28 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Large Asian option at 79 being protected at the moment hearing in the Market

SA Bok 09:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Joburg cd 09:14 - Could be but has licence and all the help to recover and grow , rest paying for it ...

SA Bok 09:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LDN LDN 09:13 - Basically very volatile on interest rate differentails , maybe wrong wrong terminolgy ... and if they the Brits want into EUR they are diverging rather than converging ...

Dont worry my stop will soon be hit and a top in place .. LOL

Ldn 09:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham same here

Nottingham 09:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 09:20 GMT

Agree...short and looking for same levels, where hope to reverse and long...gl gt

Athens 09:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Re US growth and the lower Dollar policy-- Apart from growth the US still has to finance its monstrous deficit and external debt. For several months the onlu (non US) big buyers of Treasuries are Japan and China. It is obvious (in my opinuion at least) that in return the US has allowed Japan to perform its continuous and beyond any historical limmits FX intervention in $/JPY (actually having Japan using the dollars they buy for more US bonds buying). No wonder why the Treasury has not objected MOF/BOJ action since last September. No wonder either that with the JPY out of the game, a market which wants to play the (US desired) weak Dollar policy, has no other alternatives than going through the EUR and the GBP (well, plus a few other smaller currencies like the AUD). As long as Snow/Greenspan can finance the deficits this way (and as ;ong as the stock and bond market are not at imminent risk in their opinion) the big picture can't change easily. The question is how the EZ will react when its limits are reached...

Deauville Nico 09:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ldn 09:11 GMT February 12, 2004
"ECB CONCERNED ABOUT EXCESSIVE FX MOVES "

So do I, but I think the expression "increase rates" is the only thing that can bring euro really lower.

I' ll buy some more at 1.2850

Ldn 09:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Aud see gaps filled towards 0.7815/30. to fill in.

phils VL 09:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP

short-term trade -- r/r 1:1.6, not a main menu trade...

Joburg cd 09:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
bok, agree with your bigger picture. The US scenario is all smoke and mirrors at present.

LDN LDN 09:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok: "GBP is a time bomb ..". Please elaborate. Thx.

Nottingham 09:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldon 09:09 GMT

If he's remembered for initiating a $ collapse I don't know if market will ask how high if he says jump...it will be interesting to see if he makes any changes in the second testimony...gl gt

phils VL 09:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
correction

eur/usd - short at 1.2820, not 1.2620...

ldn 09:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ECB CONCERNED ABOUT EXCESSIVE FX MOVES

Barcelona JP 09:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldon

Right!!!

SA Bok 09:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Ldon 09:09 GMT - Good Call , like a committee member stated y/day amazing words of one man can move markets so much ..
Agree they the US know they are calling the shots ...

Barcelona JP 09:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Phil

You are a brave man. Remember that: the trend is your friend.

Ldon 09:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok

I think the Fed Greenspan is confident enough about the recovery to risk suggesting the dollar lower , knowing fully he can turn it around by a statement, otherwise he would not have made the remarks he did out of hand.

phils VL 09:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi folks - just as well I missed all the action y/day. Flat since then except for long usd/jpy. As said y/day even if 1.2790 high was broken, it wud not substantially change my view that the push-ups thus far are overstretched and heavy- specs driven. Now that Greeny has taken an unusual fx pitch for a softer dollar, specs are taking another excuse to move the euro further up.

Unless the 1.2900 is broken with capitulation to 1.30-1.33, we will see an extended period of tussle, and range trading, between 1.2900 lvl (representing usa's undercover but now exposed weak dollar policy) and 1.2335 lvl (representing EZ's foreseeale comfort zone.

I'm short eur/usd earlier at 1.2620 with the normal s/l well abv y/day's high. Interested to see how market uses liquidity in today's NY session to move euro higher, or to liquidate.

Barcelona JP 09:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!!

I don't know if eur/usd is going to correct down to 1,2740/1,2700, but what I think to know is that in order to keep feeding US economic recovery the $ must go down.
So, we could go down but at the end we'll see eur/usd at 1,30/1,35.

SA Bok 09:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The bigger picture is the US growth and Mr G has basically ensure and underwritten this .. Jobs growth and his job will be complete ..

In contrast EUR zone will suffer , GBP is a time bomb ..
AUD and NZD have risks to local economy with high currency .. exporters and tourism for both ..

Tick .. Tick

GL luck all

Nottingham 08:58 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Athens 08:49 GMT

Have found that my primary o/b levels are being reached more and more often and on occasion the secondary o/b levels are breached by some pips...I don't know if this increased volatility is a signal for a top or just a sign of changing times ie. high volatility the norm, but the almost carefree approach to $ fall (by US) leads me to think a move in the order of what took place in $jpy a few years ago is required to gain their attention...gl gt

SA Bok 08:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Athens 08:49 GMT - Good Article ... appreciate ...

Given the recent history of comments from various CB Members all around the world.

The market still only respects Mr G in my view and the market has Banked upon the others to make gaffs for trading opportunities ..

IMHO ...

Miami OMIL 08:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
That is right Athens that is why I take it one step at a time. Even if my views are now bullish with eur/usd until the bearish hand is shown. I have to be flexible to be able to deal with the constant changing trend in the market (survive). Thanks for your valuable comments that brings the matter down to earth. (/;-> GT

Athens 08:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I would also like to remind an oldr posting (not mine but very much in line with my thoughts all this time, the reason why I didn't hold positions but followed hit and run tactics):

melbourne farmacia 10:07 GMT February 2, 2004
Seems the Euro debate has surfaced once again -IMO, only euro below 1.2100 would suggest a bigger correction, until then just follow the flow. I think after such a long period of buying on dips, one must sit back and wait for this correction / consolidation to finish before taking any longer term positions etc.. still lots of good pips to be made intraday.

Ldn 08:53 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
RBA chances of a March rate hike appear to be ebbing slowly back towards unchanged policy. Aussie employment data was marginaly below median expectations

beijing road 08:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Athen:, thanks.

Athens 08:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Something I wrote a little earlier on my page re my thoughts in the market:

I haven't changed my view that all these weeks we are near the end of a very big trend but a view is not enough to trade successfully or, more important, defend successfully (preservation of capital is a higher priority than profits). I mean to say that 1.2895 could stay as a top but equally an extension could be seen (stop hunting could do the job). I don't want to contradict the model, hence my suggestin to sell contras only around the O/B area (note: it is well above 1.29 now) and I also don't wish to have the market putting me under water by 100, 200 or more pips while at the same time cursing myself for trading against my own model. Whethe the market turns from these levels or higher (e.g. 1.30, 1.31 or 1.32, in the end we will all say that 1.30ish is toppish. However, even though academically that would be right to say, the P/L could show a very different picture.

Good luck all.

Miami OMIL 08:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
FWIW eur/usd needs to take out 1.2850 barrier to get to 1.2900 area (obvious) but with the 15 min chart riding under the 55 ma, stochs headed south the force for selling will continue. Like I said before this will probably range for now until the US news later today. Of course this is only IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

SA Bok 08:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
To me make this call correct and you will be in the money

Question
Do we run stops above 1.2900
or
Flush weak longs and trigger more Profit take stops below and then long at lower levels for higher ...

Everbody think Green light has been given so higher seems logical but then bigger players look at this and go Yummy ..
False break up and then lower ...

Tough call right here... GL all

Ldn 08:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Fighting a losing battle as the cards stack up against the JPY. Pressure is likely to remain for a break of USD-JPY 105, targeting the key support level just ahead of 100 at 101.23. So far, the BoJ has been active again overnight in what appears to be virtually the only bids in the 105.10/15 area. Nonetheless, the MoF/BoJ are slowly lowering the threshold against the weight of evidence stacking up against the pairing. The current account surplus continues to expand, by almost two-fifths compared to a year ago, while official capital account data continues to show strong net inflows. MMS

hk ab 0.88 08:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
wait for a retracement to buy eur/chf again.

1.5730-50 should hold for a bounce.

plovdiv joyrex 08:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
yeah, i have already BUY signal on EUR/USD, stop 1.2793

MONACO OGA 08:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 12/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2810), 130 pips higher than Tuesday opening. 1,2780 finally cracked yesterday after Mr Greenspan's speech in which he favoured a continuous weakening of the US currency, and he also expressed some worries about the widening US deficit. The market interpreted this speech as a signal US rates would stay stable, taking the pair to 1,2846. Since yesterday, EUR/USD has been consolidating inside 1,2800-40. For today we favour a consolidation pattern (possible retracements to 1,2740) before a crucial test of 1,2900 ideally tomorrow. However we are a bit concerned by the lack of follow-through overnight as we would have expected to find the market trading around 1,2870 this morning.
If 1,2900 taken, many stops could trigger a 500 pips run to 1,3400.
Our medium target remains at 1,3500.

Data out today:
US jobless claims expected 345K 13.30 GMT
US retail sales Jan expected 0,5% 13.30 GMT
US Fed budget Jan expected 75Bio 19.00 GMT

Gold around 412,00 , with WTI March at 33,90.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 105,35) literally under artificial life support by the BOJ. The pair dipped briefly below 105,20 yesterday before regaining 105,30. We still like to sell upticks (105,50/60) for a retest and break of 105,30 as we cannot see how the japanese authorities can keep the pair from falling below 100 in the medium term. Asharp move is expected at one point.
EUR/JPY (currently 135,00) following EUR/USD price action. Still looking to challenge previous highs at 135,50 (next one being 137,50).

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8910) printed a new 11 years high yesterday above 1,8940. Supports for the day around 1,8870 then 1,8820. 1,90 target is almost done so we need to reasses objective to the upsides.
EURGBP (0,6775). We still favour the downside for the medium term with a lower bearish channel barrier around 0,6750, today we'll sell 0,6790 if seen for a 0,6750-60 target.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Miami OMIL 08:37 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Road I hope we get those levels to load up on it would nice. Like you said ride the trend until you can’t ride it no more. We are on the same page on this one. (/;-> GL GT

hk ab 0.88 08:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I only long aud/nzd now. Wait for the bursting of this bubble to enter.

No way to believe the setting can send the aud and nzd by 1000 pips more each.

Yes, aud and nzd are not as overvalued as eur but it doesn't mean the effect of an 80% of its currencies could be ignored by the globe.

The key is the setting is not right for such bullish view.

melbourne 08:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUS Trader, nice AUD & NZD calls.
agree with your 07:13 GMT January 30, 2004
GT

beijing road 08:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : yes, agree with you. maybe 1.2700-50, even below 1.2700.lol

London London 08:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 Hi, you seem extremely bearish aud , dont you go long Aud now ? just curious thanks and good trades

Miami OMIL 08:29 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
US news coming up later will either push eur/usd higher or bring it down a bit we will see later today. For now I will wait for a dip to be confirmed to buy eur/usd IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

hk ab 0.88 08:28 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
put a small entry on euraud 1.6250 long order.

hk ab 0.88 08:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Indeed, I have a little worry on my option at 1.3388 dlrcad

Ldn 08:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Below Forecast French GDP Sends Euro Touch Lower

Deauville Nico 08:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
OMIL; that's right but the rally we saw yesterday gave a strong support at 1.2800. Above 1.2800 the long term trend is clearly up.

GENEVA FHR 08:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
HIGH AUD FEB 1989 0.8931 DEC 96 0.8212

plovdiv joyrex 08:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
IMO no sign the 23.6% fibo retr. of the move 1.2647-1.2849 on EUR/USD will hold, i will wait for reversal arround 1.2770-38.2% fibo to buy.

What you think?

TIA

hk ab 0.88 08:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
only thing attractive is short eur/gbp.

hk ab 0.88 08:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
only thing attractive is short eur/gbp.

Miami OMIL 08:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Eur/usd has more room for correction IMHO. (/;->

Deauville Nico 08:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
bought euro/usd at 1.2805 s:l 1.2780

hk ab 0.88 08:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
when is .79 done? 10 years ago?

hk ab 0.88 08:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
just like people seeing dlr/jpy rising from 100 to 135. In fact, I read many articles in the past stating how yen will sink, will sink and will sink to 140-160 but ......

Chinese old wisdom, Tai Ji.

AUS Trader 08:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bingo!!
AUD/USD .7900 done...... on way to .8000......

HK 8888 08:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
FX concepts trade of the day is to sell USDCHF here at 1.2315, s/l 1.2355 1.2235 t/p.
He has had euro on a string this week.

HK 8888 08:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
FX concepts trade of the day is to sell USDCHF here at 1.2315, s/l 1.2355 1.2235 t/p.
He has had euro on a string this week.

Deauville Nico 07:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Yes Cd, I think the houly 50 ema is an exellent entry point for gbp and eur. I don't think we will see a return on this level for gbp ( good unemployement number, interest rates increased) and the up move on gbp has been stronger than the one on euro. I bought a lot of gbp/usd at 1.8910 s/l 1.8880 . Let's see...

hk ab 0.88 07:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The last post was regarded to bc.

Ldn 07:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
BC many thanks for you posting earlier

hk ab 0.88 07:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Does it look likely, we have entered the last leg on eur earlier than expected? and the next move is canon from ECB?

Thought MOF, BOJ and ECB members break all their glasses when Green did his speech.

It looks like a currency depreciation war soon.

From your last post, does it mean we should short dlr/RMB once it floats in the future?

Joburg cd 07:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Deauville, I presume your comments regarding banco also goes for the GBP trade you mention ;)

Deauville Nico 07:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/usd seems interesting to buy with a s/l under 1.8888

hk ab 0.88 07:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
added one long aud/nzd 1.1250.

Deauville Nico 07:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Cd, I won't buy a big quantity on a break of 1.2840 but I will play banco on the 50 ema.

Joburg cd 07:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Deauville, good strategy, I've got my orders in round the levels you mention. Direction is in the heavens, but one can at least prepare well!

Bdg Dewan 07:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Raden Masandi,
have any predict for mr. Isk?
Thanks

Bris TW 07:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Targeting Cable 1.9050-1.9140 shortly after 13.30 GMT from a low of approx 1.8870-1.8910

hk ab 0.88 07:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
very quiet.

Sydney2 07:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Tbilisi GT , thanks a lot.

Deauville Nico 06:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
Euro hold above 1.2800, the bulls are here and ready for a new offensive. I suggest to buy a return on 1.2800 (50 days ema) or above 1.2840
May the trend be with you!

Tbilisi GT 06:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2: I think E-signal provides those. Check the pricing may not be the cheapest one.

hk ab 0.88 06:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
syd, join together to long aud/nzd?

waiting 1.1250 again to fill.

Sydney2 06:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
HI, friends here, does anyone know where I can find real time option quotes (currencies and stock indices)? Thanks.

prauge viktor 06:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I think the 1,3 befor if Mr:Trichet will say nothing..about this wild move good luck

hyderabad rakesh 06:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hello ICT ML ....
nice posts really appreciate ur views...so what do u think 1.2900 taken out first or again 1.2700 will be tested enroute to 1.3000 in euro post ur views..thx n regards....rakesh

HKG SK 06:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Greeny's statement will disrupt the market again, this is an order from his Boss. His Boss have told him to say things that will make the US$ much much lower. See for yourself.

Aden PK 05:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hi,
regarding the continuation of greenspsn statement today. what do you think? any more abrupt movement expected on eur/usd, either prior to that or during that event?

HKG SK 05:53 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The whole world is expecting a pullback on GBP. If this is what everyone expected then the market usually go the different way. I expected to see Gpb to hit 1.92 before any meaningful correction will set in.

SA Bok 05:45 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone out there expect a pull back on GBPUSD ...

TIA ...

Ldn 05:39 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD offers ahead of 0.7900, possibly defensive sales
ahead of a 7900 option barrier. Large stops eyed above

SA Bok 05:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 05:09 - Appreciate .. yip EUR Ministers have plenty egg on thier face ..

They must love it as they continue with stupid policies and statements ...

ZP Nemo 05:31 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Shalom! Any views about ECB actions today... May be , they can use at least verbal interv?????? :))

hyderabad rakesh 05:30 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
HK hello
hello well ur comments on gold r really bullish and i do agree with u..which part of the world r u from...msg bk...

LAX-LGB SNP 05:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 04:56 GMT February 12, 2004

G-7 `Volatility' Statement Fails to Slow Euro's Rise VS Dollar

A John Kerry Win May Unnerve Japan's Economy: William Pesek Jr. ... All roads toward getting China to scrap the yuan's peg with the dollar may run through Tokyo. Only when Japan stops spending the equivalent of entire Asian economies to weaken the yen will China take seriously Washington's desire for a stronger yuan. If Kerry can bring a fresh approach to all this, the global economy may be better off.

syd 05:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
far greater probability of nz recession than in aus.....the ccy is that much more important relatively to nz than aus, and the export/agri sector there is getting hammered by not only the rallying kiwi, but its speed. With the impulse form net inward migration fading, and the possibility of higher rates slowing housing, nz is vulnerable.

think the kicker aus will get in growth terms this year form the break of the drought will be enough to keep that possibility at bay, and the seemingly insatiable demand from china for aus resources that will keep exporters going despite the rising aud......interesting to have a look at the coal industry as a proxy for the aus primary export sector, tells a story that is widely applicable.

aud/nzd is one of my favourite trades for this coming year....but it will be a real medium term patience trade for 1.20 plus

hk ab 0.88 05:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Bok, what I wanted to point out is, this thing can come really faster than anyone expected.

In chinese terms, we say that turning something bad is always easier and faster than turing something good.

GT.

hk ab 0.88 04:59 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
No matter how, superheat candidate oftens retreat doubly fast.

Gbp told us once upon a time, Nasdog told us once upon a time.

Since no easy tools to compare the cost and valuation of curr. let's take a simpler one (which is the one of the last resort) BM index.....

buying a big mac in british is.......

wonder how people can support their living in the country.

And if you look at the growing number of deficit, british should not be refrained from what US "is" experiencing.......

GL.

SA Bok 04:56 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 04:40 - could you paste link ? TIA

SA Bok 04:55 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.88 04:26 AUD recession .. wow ... I think RBA not even thing that extreme , but plauseable ... Food for thought

LAX-LGB SNP 04:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
interesting article about PRC against US-BoJ @ Bloomberg's website
also some post G-7 views on the rising of the euro which some believe will touch 1.38+ by year end

Melbourne Qindex 04:38 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Use the daily cycle for reference when the market is trading outside the range 1.8869 - 1.8954.

Melbourne Qindex 04:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:20 GMT February 12, 2004
GBP/USD : the market is going to consolidate between 1.8869 - 1.8954 for the time being.

hk ab 0.88 04:26 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 02:10 GMT February 12, 2004
Guys note that since 0830 EST just before US numbers last Friday GBP was trading just about 1.8300 handle , besides small dip post G7 , we are now trading on the 1.8900 handle High 1.8940-50 level.
Thats 6.5 cents in a week ...
Talk about speed and Volatilty that our G7 friends said they dont need ...
It seems to me High Yeild will win .. EUR may falter a bit as yeild in comparision to others low ...

Poor GBP and AUD exporters dead in thier tracks with no end in sight ...

US again laughing at how easy it is to get thier way in the FX markets while other bamble on with no effect ... ECB, BOJ etc ...

Agree with Dallas comment earlier



Usually, recession comes more sudden than expected.
Indeed, with high aud and retreat of Chinese investment, seeing a possibility of aussie and nz to go into recession again fast near the end of year.

shanghai bc 04:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   

LDN 00:23 -- Good morning..China is having a conference of bank bosses in Beijing these few days and cb boss said Rmb would be gradually floated per WTO committment..Not sure where Nekkei boys got the words of imminent Rmb appreciation this year..People tend to believe what they want to believe even in financial market..Fixing banking problems is more of a burning issue for Chinese cb at present..But once floated sometime in the future,we may add some ten yards of Usd/Cny in Asian market each day, for a start, making Asian market more liquid and tradable..

On Asian currencies and Rmb,I tend to agree that Rmb has a potential to rise in coming years..Then again,timing is everything in our business and the last thing Chinese cb will do is letting specs run wild in Rmb market now or in the future..Maybe one can sit on some real estate or buy some shares in a business to capitalize on Rmb appreciation in that time frame..Imho..

PORTO PJT -- Good morning..Thanks for your kind words..I am still a learner in this ever-changing environment..Good trades..

hk ab 0.88 04:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
tony, I have an option cut on tomorrow on 1.3388.....fwiw.

nyc tony 04:20 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
i am adding pretty heavy to my long $/cad here. fwiw

hiltonhead Island RH 04:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
does any one of you know why r e f c ofx took the double no touch option from its option platform?

Melbourne Qindex 04:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:08 GMT February 12, 2004
EUR/GBP : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 0.6741 // 0.6759 and the upper barrier is positioning at 0.6795 // 0.6813. The market rhythm of my daily cycle is represented by 18 pips.


... 0.6741 // 0.6759 - 0.6777 - 0.6795 // 0.6813 ...

Nassau QF (newb) 03:48 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   



Opinions needed on Cable.




Slow stochs on 1hr charts are pointing down but the price isn't falling.

Is that a good indication that the price will go up?

nyc sa 03:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
good evening all, Farmacia ,do u have levels for swiss/yen , would appreciate help . thnx

Nassau QF (newb) 03:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
My charts say 105.19 on USD/JPY.

Miami OMIL 03:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Later ML. (/;->

Adelaide albbar 03:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
and 105.15 on s.a.x.o

ICT ML 03:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Be back in London time...take care

Adelaide albbar 03:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Brissy JM 03:29
It touched 105.16 on my charts. GT and GL

Brissy JM 03:29 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have the low offered on USD/JPY? I had a limit order @105.20 which wasn't filled. Thanks

melbourne farmacia 03:28 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Tech wise, usd/jpy should break out of this hourly tri, but with boj around you knows..

LAX-LGB SNP 03:26 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
port jeff ac
welcome ... btw if you are interested i have the Long Beach bridge for sale here ... j/k

trading is like chess & you'll get better with time. since you are starting on a fresh page i suggest you demo-trade as much as possible & follow all pairs and charts. don't be in a hurry to jump in with real funds. take your time and follow all kinds of markets, bull, bear and 'rangey' till you can see numbers in your sleep

also be realistic in your profit making goals. some trade once a week and net a cool cent while some trade everyday make 10-20 bps daily and still net the same cent in profits. it all depends on how much risk you are willing to carry. GL

HK [email protected] 03:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Euro has to complete a move to about 1.2890 (little exhaustive for short term) B4 a move to break all time Euro-HI.
Better if going-congestion in the present range, will continue up to Euro-time. GL/GT.

Nassau QF (newb) 03:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Thx

Sydney Ge11Ja 03:21 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
nassau

yesterday

Nassau QF (newb) 03:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Is it a market holiday in Japan today or was that yesterday?

nyc Joel 03:17 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Japanese have only 5 weeks to defend doll/yen gang
They will win the battle ( DEFENDING 100 YEN )
but come April and beyond WATCH OUT

Adelaide albbar 03:16 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 03:09 GMT February 12, 2004
Still see $/jpy as a lazy trade for few pips to 45 - 50 or if lucky a big bang intervention from BoJ! Gl and GT

port jeff ac 03:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT THANK YOU

Saihat 03:13 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
sell usdchf at 1.2330 sl at 1.2350

Saihat 03:12 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
for test only

buy gbpusd at 1.8840 sl at 1.8820

sell usdchf at 1.2230 sl at 1.2350

Sydney2 03:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Hi, Friends here, any views on $/jpy?

Tbilisi GT 03:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
whcih time zone?

ICT ML 03:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AC..read about George Soros and the 92' Brittish Pound conquest....and read about Bill Lipschutz in the New Market Wizards.......to get an idea about the Bigger players and their tactics, etc....

And then some basic tech analysis chart pattern books...and then search the GV archives for tips from guys that seem to know what they are doing....you'll figure that out in due time....

Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : A projected barrier is located at 1.8954 - 1.8961.

port jeff ac 03:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
180k into 30k and yes he is still my friend..its only money. One question for anyone out there is this...i found out that at 6:30am est time usually gives you a good entry point for most currencies to trade for a quick turn up. is it just luck or is 6;30 a meaningful timeframe?

Nassau QF (newb) 03:00 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Is he still your friend after turning 180K into 30k?
Or did you mean 18K into 30K?

ICT ML 02:59 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
to add to that, as of right now, the channel top it barely broke through today, has supported it........next move could be brutal.

I still need to think about GBP/JPY, 197 held perfectly as I posted past few days, so I ned to find its breakout point and that will become major support for the time being.....

AC>...pairs that offer the best bang for buck in any time frame, are in order, GBP/USD , GBP/JPY, and GBP/CHF.....which is why I seem to be a one pair trader to a lot of folks here........But these pairs also are the hardest to trade, and require either incredible LUCK, perfect timed entries, or wide stops and pain threshold......have to be willing to eat 70 to 100 pip losses if you want to stay in the game on these pairs...(with my style anyway)

port jeff ac 02:57 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT Thank You for answering. Any books,courses,websites,etc.. you recommend to help speed up the learning curve. Reason i ask this is that I let a friend manage 180k for me and in 3 months he turned it into 30k. The whole time I watched and realized the tremendous potential this market gives to you and I had to get involved so any tips/hellp is appreciated.

SA Bok 02:50 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 02:40 GMT - Good Post , just I get the feeling GBP will not follow a EUR lower as Interest rate now double for GBP to EUR ... also equals no GBP into EUR soon ...

I hope to see a pull back given the move up this week and will also be a buyer with you on dips ..

GL all out there Helmets on and make money ...

ICT ML 02:49 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
port jeff ac 02:25 : welcome AC, that depends on the entry levels and intent of the trade....If I get in at bottoms or tops ( which I am pretty decent at picking) I try to hold them for the 200-400 pip runs then TP and play the next move out of the consolidation or retracement.

If I see a pip raid waiting to happen, its 20-50 pips and out usually. It all depends on what is going on and time of day, etc..

And once you get the hang of this, you will probably NEVER look at securities again, as it is a complete waste of time compared... for ME anyway.

Adelaide albbar 02:46 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 02:40 GMT

Tks for your detailed clarification, much appreciated as always with your sharing. Was wondering where you got 8860 from but understand now.
GL and GT!

Miami OMIL 02:42 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The name of the game is still buy on dips on eur/usd looking to test 1.2900 area again as I said before. ML is right cable and eur/usd have not been retracing fully lately so I will be adding on any dips. Fib retracement for this past move (only estimate) 1.2775-70, 1.2750-45 and 1.2730-25 with support at the moment in 1.2730-25 and 1.2650-45 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

ICT ML 02:40 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Adelaide albbar 02:27: to clarify my earlier cable post, I have these levels as support...minor support is 1.8890 channel top, then 1.8880 30 min ema20, ...major support is the 1.8860 breakout of the flag pole, then 1.8806 30 min ema50, and finally 1.8735 breakout level.

So I ama buyer on dips all the way to 1.8735 for 1.92XX , a fib projection that I had after 1.8505 projection.......than to 2.1XXX top.

I am also a buyer on breaks upwards at this point as I'm flat..

Still only concern is ath euro drags us down, like last summer....

nyc jk 02:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GEP good posts.

Shelbyville MKT 02:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
AC: When I was new to the forum I would pick out names and go to the archives and read postings going back six months to a year. Reading so many postings would help me with the lingo and ideas, trading styles. You might be able to answer some of your questions that way.

HK [email protected] 02:30 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
A rising daily channel in Gold Puts up a Res. Currently at 415.40, simultaneously 414.95 is the high of Jan/27/2004.
A back-break into the channel can crash the dreams of retesting 394 in the near future and even bring prices to the other side of it; currently at about 444$/Oz.
Is that possible??? Looks like the answer is yes. Daily indicators have just crossed the equator to the upside and price move has still a large up-potential.
Long term target for gold is at least 525, so 444 is less than midway to it.
So now as the famous maxim says…Be right and sit tight!!!

Gl/GT to all

Adelaide albbar 02:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Tks farmacia
Agree with 8880 and next s at about 8840.

port jeff ac 02:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
melbourne, when you are saying that you are running some numbers and 1.880 looks important, what numbers are you actually running? I hope these idiotic questions dont bother too many people.

port jeff ac 02:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
How long do most of you people hold positions when trading this market? Are there correlations between one pair going up and another going down? Which ones provide the best intra-day swings to make money on? Once again in advance Thank You for answering my very basic questions I am a newbie to this type of trading.

melbourne farmacia 02:22 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Adelaide albbar 01:43 GMT February 12, 2004
Will get back to you later as i'm just running some numbers now. But 1.8880 looks important. gt

Wiarton H 02:19 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:08 GMT February 12, 2004
Great post Gep,if all posters would keep to that we can all make money and have some fun as well.
Thanks for all your posts they are great help.

Adelaide albbar 02:18 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Gep, any further comment?

BTW WATCH USD/JPY carefully!!!

Steady around 30 mark. Do you think we might get stronger intervention to drive down eur? Or is BoJ ready to let it slip to about 105?

Shelbyville MKT 02:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
The pound was at a 1.5 year IV High. Tuesday on my option sheets.

HK [email protected] 02:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:08 GMT How about: Best friends best enemies??? LOL

Gen dk 02:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SA Bok 02:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Guys note that since 0830 EST just before US numbers last Friday GBP was trading just about 1.8300 handle , besides small dip post G7 , we are now trading on the 1.8900 handle High 1.8940-50 level.
Thats 6.5 cents in a week ...
Talk about speed and Volatilty that our G7 friends said they dont need ...
It seems to me High Yeild will win .. EUR may falter a bit as yeild in comparision to others low ...

Poor GBP and AUD exporters dead in thier tracks with no end in sight ...

US again laughing at how easy it is to get thier way in the FX markets while other bamble on with no effect ... ECB, BOJ etc ...

Agree with Dallas comment earlier

Shelbyville MKT 02:10 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas: That's the one

Dallas GEP 02:08 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
And also:

Two are better than one, because they sharpen and improve each other in several ways (Eccl 4:9-12). They can share successes of labor, help each other up when they fall, find complementary abilities, and defend against mutual enemies. What a great blessing!

BTW WATCH USD/JPY carefully!!!

Dallas GEP 02:05 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   

27:17

Iron sharpeneth iron; so a man sharpeneth the countenance of his friend.

HK [email protected] 02:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Gold is KING, cause if EBC will use interest rate-cut to curb the Euro rise, gold will respond with additional gains.

A break of 316.5 is crucial for no return below 394.

HK [email protected] 01:58 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Really T.A was Y.day a big fiasco, where many great and bright failed. But I guessed Greeny's mind; cause if he brought the Dollar up he could not return home last night, as Bush and snow will be waiting near his house with a baseball bat to club him.

Once Greeny said:If you think you understand what I am about to say, you have misunderstood.

This time about 24 Hrs ago I guessed by using common sense psychology which I put it as follows:

HK [email protected] 02:50 GMT February 11, 2004
Do not worry about Green's testimony!!! Why???

Low interest rates must be kept down to let the industries grow, even up to overheating the economy (when you are on a race for election, you may sacrifice few engine parts to be ahead, repairs will be left for the next president), stock market must rise, and of course to let the housing bubble go on and on (on low interest rates) to the satisfaction of the citizenry.
If Greeny will be just predictable (and it looks like he has nothing to add for all what we know) what do you expect to happen to the Dollar???

Yers there were agonizing hours B4 the big price change, but that is what the market usually dose to you, B4 it will give you a windfall profits.


Shelbyville MKT 01:54 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas: Your post reminds me of a quote from proverbs. Something about two men sharpen one another like steel striking against steel. Well you get the idea.

Cairo MDR 01:53 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
exited my long position in euro and waiting to renter at a lower level...
expected levels for entry is 2770 (38.2%) and i am going to average it @ 2730(61.8%) if it still goes down.
I hope don't miss the nest upmove towards 2890

Adelaide albbar 01:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, good morning
earler comment was that cable might retrace to about 8860 and good level to get on board. Any comments where you see initial support and new resistance for today and tomorrow?
Tks, gt and gl

OK SZ 01:43 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, Gep...nice post and I totally agree..everyone have a good evening, morning

Dallas GEP 01:34 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
You make a good point CK. The way I look at it if I get beat up on a possie, the thing that actually makes me feel a WHOLE lot better if if I see that someone on this board makes money going the opposite way from me. What bothers me most is when it seems everybody got beat up. I mean someone has to be on the winning side of these things and I would much rather see it be one of us. Collectively we are MUCH better at this than individually. I think the key is to recognize who has a strength you don't and then try to capitalize on their view. Basically I don't care whose view is right as long as it makes us money.

Porto PJT 01:27 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, i know that, but usually you dont have full time to came here explaining all, and many others dont know that, just in case people start to realize the excellence of your calls and start followig them blindly.
Congrats on gbp and aud calls.GT.

MKT, thank you, i have something for you.

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:01 GMT February 11, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range from my weekly cycle is 1.2757 - 1.2939 and the mid-point reference is 1.2848.

Dublin CK 01:15 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Nite all, been good talking.

Thanks

GL/GT

melbourne farmacia 01:14 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT - yes i do make bad readings too, but always have s/r orders above / below just in case. GT

Dublin CK 01:11 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dont get me wrong, i hold him and others in the highest regards, I value their insight, sometimes its just uncanny the way they can read the market.

However, I was disturbed today by all the negative comments that emerged after Greenspan rocked the markets.

It seemed some people were gloating, which is unfair, especially when it hits u in the wallet.

Anyway, im off to bed, its dead late

Slan

CK

Shelbyville MKT 01:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
PORTO: I sent Jay an email.

melbourne farmacia 01:09 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 00:36 GMT February 12, 2004
Thanks for that email - interesting

Dublin CK - I play both long and intraday, Cable long term, aud, euro on signals, etc.. see GEP's post on chart time frames, cable's the best for day trading with nice 100 + pip swings within london/new york period. GT

Porto PJT 01:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
MKT , yes i want please.Will ask Jay by messenger.

Porto PJT 01:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 00:47 , well for me he is the best i have seen here in more than 2 years, he usually play what market offers, range markets, trend markets, and of coarse sometimes could be wrong.
Others posts i never want to miss is from bc, a gentleman and the most experienced trader posting overall big pictures and "small" important details.
Many others are good too but from this 2 i have learned a lot.

Melbourne Qindex 01:03 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Shelbyville MKT 00:51 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Porto: If you want my email I'll tell Jay

Dublin CK 00:47 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT - sorry, true ur right, i too got my fingers burnt today.

Radan the poor fella, didnt get it completely right.

I should read farmacia's comments more closely, isnt he a medium term player tho?

Ldn 00:41 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Australia's unemployment rate rose to a slightly-than-expected seasonally adjusted 5.7% in January from 5.6% in December. The number of employed rose 13,900, slightly below expectations, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Porto PJT 00:36 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 00:25 , think you are wrong on that, "people who solely depend on technicals sometimes get caught out like today" look farmacia posts for example, there is a diference between a good tech like farmacia and a bad tech- like me , lol.

Dublin CK 00:35 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Would anybody rate, recommend the qualification and education from the Society of Technical Analysts, similar to the The International Federation of Technical Analysts in the US.

Im considering applying to do the courses and do the exams

Ldn 00:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
BC also lots of talk on Bloomberg CNBC about going long on Asia currencies is the trade of the future --Won Yen Sing Dollar would like to know what you think about this again thanks

Dublin CK 00:25 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
port jeff ac 00:07 GMT February 12, 2004

Best place are the links to the right, this is an exceptional website, full of free education in the forums and the links are very good also.

Im very new to this as well and ive been doing alot of my own study, reading and analysis.

Here are some site and books which i have found helpful

Other FX forums - for a broader range of opinions - if they all say down, then the market will probably be down - however - people who solely depend on technicals sometimes get caught out like today

For educational material, learning what indicators are and how to interpret them is how ive been going about it. usefull sites are:

I dont know who the genius behind this first one is, but i found it very useful.I thk he visits this forum, he should do on line tutorials.

http://www.stideas.com/Technical%20Analysis.htm
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/121702.asp


Actually Jeff, get Jay to send u on my email and i can send u on a good few of my links if u want.

Global-View 00:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
ac. check your email

Porto PJT 00:24 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
go there, is the main indicators used http://www.stideas.com/Technical%20Analysis.htm

Ldn 00:23 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC

Nikkei front-pager suggests China is moving CNY away from its current 'hard'
peg to the U.S. dollar, an attempt to take the air out of criticism that it is
exporting deflation on a global scale.

How will affect the Euro GBP Aud etc would really appreciate you view on this topic as its getting louder thanks

port jeff ac 00:07 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I'm new to this type of trading. What can anyone recommend to read, study, courses,etc... to learn. I was a successful stockbroker for 9 years and I would love to be able to really understand/learn this market because the potential is absolutely amazing. Thank you to all that answer in advance.

Dublin CK 00:06 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
I guess its a "lets buy all things British" since they helped out for the war effort. Some of those contracts must be massive.

Should is a good word, it seems to be buy the rumour and sell the dollar down down d..o...w....n

I still think some sort of accommodating agreement was reached in Boca at the G7. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but they have something up their sleeves to hold the dollar back.

Melbourne Qindex 00:04 GMT February 12, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment . Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

 




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