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Forex Forum Archive for 02/13/2004

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SD tht 23:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD still trading in the 200 pips rising channel after the 1.2325 low, expecting another attack on 1.29, LT tgt. 1.35.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 22:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hey GeP , whats the consensus on euro ? is it good for long ?
havent been here for while, i heard this move today was coused by the ECB intervention rumors

Gen dk 22:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona JP 22:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, GEP

Good night!!

Dallas GEP 22:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JP I don't follow their trades so I am not sure really. MY impression is though they are better than most

ICT ML 21:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
QF...hows the sailing in the EXUMAS been lately? God I love that place.........hope you are able to take full advantage of living in paradise...my goal is to be there when the kids are out of high school...

Nassau QF (newb) 21:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
OK John.
No problem.

Barcelona Tony 21:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
dalls, thank you, message sent

GVI john 21:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
QF -- I smypathize with your sentiments but we do not allow the posting of names of other websites. I hope you understand!

Have a nice weekend! I wish was in Nassau! ;-)

Barcelona JP 21:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP

How are fxguide performing?

Khobar maz 21:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello ppl ... What's the best broker for FOREX trading?

Dallas GEP 21:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Tony I have yahoo messenger .....dallasgep is my handle

Barcelona Tony 21:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, I wonder if you have MSN or something, if so, could I add you?

Dallas GEP 20:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
SNP, some platforms have automatic execution of orders and others force the trading desk to approve your order FIRST. Some platforms use BOTH (they can take you off automatic execution)

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
My last possie of the day will be EUR/GBP long from .6763. I will leave that open over the weekend. Have a great one guys!!!!!

LAX-LGB SNP 19:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
phils VL ... GEP
unsure if algorithms work against clients ... last yr i met a guy who was part of the prg team for UBS and spoke to him @ length re: their trading software. He said the prices are usually piped in from one common source but fills or slips depend on the broker staff

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Yep ML on THREE separate occassions last week they have hit mine EXACTLY but no further (stops)

ICT ML 19:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hey GEP...guess what the high was on that little bump up there.......bastards

phils VL 19:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad - limit buy entry 1.3125, s/l below today's low, target 1.3255 -1.3300

eur/usd - limit sell entry 1.2775, s/l well abv 1.2845, first target 1.2650

I'm shutting dwn.... great w/e to all.

Chief1Oar Colo 19:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I have been using their demo for quite some time now, and there are many good features...

downsides... close down 2 hours in front of the market... they will be closing down in about 15 minutes. Wont open again until about 2 hours after the market opens on Sunday...

If anyone is interested they might want to visit the forum and peruse it... http://www.metaquotes.net/cgi-bin/mfe.cgi

Good Weekend All
Chief

Wiarton H 19:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
There is no cost for metatrader,and I would not trade with them ,they are out of russia.I have nothing against Russia ,but is to far from Wiarton Canada.My trading acc is on the American continent

LAX-LGB SNP 19:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
might i add that after a demo copy expires, if uninstalling/reinstalling won't let you use it then all you have to do is delete all the entries it made within the system registry

london trout 19:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hi Wiarton,

what is the cost for the real thing? tia

Wiarton H 19:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The Metatrader demo has a month time limit ,but can be renewed every month and most of the time you can keep your settings

Wiarton H 18:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The last few years I have been trading with my trading platform in the left hand corner of the screen and Metatrader in the back ground with five currencies displayed.Metatrader charts are 2-3 seconds behind and sometimes ahead of my trading platform.Works great for me and am very pleased with this setup.

Dallas GEP 18:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
OK Marc, have good one, If I could pull up my charts I could see whether or not I want to take USD/CAD short

Dallas GEP 18:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Yep VL, and if you become TOO good at pip raiding they take you off automatic execution.

ICT ML 18:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
well....was wary and had reason to be....ema200 bounced it back in our face pretty hard.....I'm out of here soon....take care

ICT ML 16:48 GMT February 13, 2004
we are short LARGE gbp now....target open, and wary of bounce off 30 min ema200 at 1.8780

phils VL 18:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP
most e-paltforms gear up with algorithms to slow quotes as they like against selected accounts until rates become unfavouarble - dont know exactly the technical side of how it works but take it frm me that its happening...

eur/usd - ready for another short, but I see dwnside limited....

Dallas GEP 18:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well getting nearer again my last short entry on EUR/USD . Not sure I will take it this time . Will see.

Dallas GEP 18:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ML I showed that EXACT same thing RE: price feed on POUND earlier. Jumps 30 points LONG and WE don't see until 15-20 seconds AFTER it happens!!!!

Dallas GEP 18:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
See ya OMIL, we have AUTORAMA this weekend down in Dallas, a bunch of old classic and custom cars. Only thing is it might SNOW down here!!!!

Good WE!!!

ICT ML 18:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP...okay......agreed then

ICT ML 18:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
well friends...the Red Baron has gone and soiled what was a pretty good day..........which was not a big deal, had our trusty charts reflected the actual price action as it happened........I had flickers of 1.8795-99, so not in a hurry to close for 30 pip profit when 100 possible.....dealing station then showed 1.8835-39....our entry point....at same time charts were still at 1.8795....stopps not hit yet, but getting close.

Like to see an honest explanation about that one...ya right.

Miami OMIL 18:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well everyone have a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. (/;->

P.S. I hope that guy (joe) took his medication today hahaha later.

Dallas GEP 18:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AB, I am thinking about longing this eur/gbp What do you think about that???

Dallas GEP 18:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
my 18:22 was in response to you ML

ICT ML 18:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 18:20...agreed......monthly techs I use have not been in such extremes since before the 92' fall.....

I was just trying to eek out a last spike this week...but didn't happen...oh well..

Dallas GEP 18:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
That's basically what I was saying but you expressed it better. No need to bust it over 106.00 when dollar strength MAY take it there anyway over a period of time.

Nottingham 18:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
would add that only on one occasion has cable been as o/b as it was yesterday...this actually occurred last September as a result of the g7 yen move but prior to this nothing so o/b going back to mid 1990's...gl gt

Dublin Flip 18:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Euro is also down today because it makes sense.
Today we found out that europe was slowing down even more under the cumlative weight of the Eur$ two year 50% appreciation. We also found out today, that (despite what rip Van Greenspan said in testimony) US import prices have gone up 1.3% in a month yet the trade gap increased not decreased because easy Al's intrest rate policy undermine the dollars efforts to slow import demand.
The old outdated eighties ideas that highing intrest rates put pressure on consumers to reduce their import addiction and thereby reduce the trade deficit has been eschewed by Greenspan in his love affair with the neo-con supply side economics that growth cures all- it doesn’t.

Warwick Sat 18:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP, most obliged.. that's enough of a lead for now..Thnx

ICT ML 18:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP....re...Japs......I think they are playing to just absorb the offers without moving it up .......eventually they deny the opportunity to reload at higher levels, and it becomes obvious that trying to short $Y is a mis-use of capital that could be used to actually make $$$$ somewhere else......good plan actually..IMHO

Dallas GEP 18:14 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sat, you can determine them yourselves by pulling up charts and drawing horizontal lines through the points where price action tends to bottom out (support) or top out (resistance).

You can also go to sites like fxguide.net and they have them calculated on an on-going basis. Most people refer to them as R1 R2 R3 (resistance points) and S1 S2 S3 (support points).

QINDEX does a great job of resistance LEVELS and support LEVELS and there are certainly others here that are better than I at calculating these points. Once you work with a pair long enough you instinctly know the support and resistance points

USA Biscuit Boy 18:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I agree wholeheartedly Dallas. Im just tired of these bs rumors coming out whenever euro shorts.

The main concern would be eur/usd sustaining 1.35+. To me another dollar downleg is almost certain given the Fed's current position. If eur/usd holds this support at 1.2720/30 euro bulls are still firmly in control in my mind. GL and GT.

Nottingham 18:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Think intervention just an excuse or something for the journalists to use to explain the fall...imo too many people got long from Wednesday onwards and with lack of follow-thru plus fact that we were trading at week's high suggested that easy money was to raid stops below mid week low...also euro and especially cable were highly o/b

Dublin Flip 18:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Obviously if the ECB came in they would get an initial reaction. However, in the big picture they would be much better served for the market to naturally take the heat out of this market. The market is geared heavily via carry trades funded thorugh USD,Yen and some swissy into the others. It will unravel on it's own eventually and they would prefer not to be the instigators of such a messy event.
A close around here 1.2740 means for all the daily histrionics over the USD the Euro has actually fared better than most considering dec03 close of 1.2590 up only 150pips in 6 weeks.

San Diego JD 18:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone, I am very new and very intersested in Forex.
I am currently using a demo account with a censored(fxtrade.censored.com). Does anyone have any experience with this company or can anyone suggest a better company to get started with? Thanks.

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AB RE: BOJ, I think their intent very clearly is to hold usd/jpy at these levels and with it's narrow range it generally discourages traders from opening up possies either way really.

london p 18:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
negative tests on the white powder find cnbc

Warwick Sat 18:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP, a short time ago you mentioned Support and Resistance lines/area's... Hate to put you on the spot by saying you'er a recognised very good 'pip-raider'... Is there any chance you could find some time to post your thoughts on locating Sup/Res lines (in the Help Forum).. THNX

Dallas GEP 18:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
BB, you put a dress on a pig and you still have a pig. LOL Whether it is intervention or not it did indeed short.

Took +23 pips on euro short on that bounce off 1.2730. Should short some more me thinks tho.

Bris TW 18:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
It would be doubtful ECB did intervene. Just a few short yards added to protect options. Could have also been a joint exit of longs from larger players at a major resistance level at the same time as shorts were added.

phils VL 18:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - closed all remaining shorts at 44..

ICT ML 18:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
SK.....think about this though.....they don't have to intervene until March...the option guys will do it for them ....I don't expect to see them until the existing barriers are crushed.....fwiw

Van jv 18:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy ////I believe that they have adopted as line 1 the " gentle approach ' of Japan....will get idea from observation

Van jv 18:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy ////I believe that they have adopted as line 1 the " gentle approach ' of Japan....will get idea from observation

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 18:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
was just curious why BOJ didn't join the orchestra and blow this dlr/jpy upt to 107 area.......

HKG SK 17:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy

Opinion taken. But If they want to intervene I think this is a good time to do so because it will be very effective with the price action we have seen tonight.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
SK I doubt very much ECB will intervene at these levels. They haven't even begun the serious jawboning and that will precede intervention. Right now their best strategy would be to keep their mouths shut (which seems very difficult for them to do). When they intervene they will let the whole world know. you won't have to rely on rumors that go around every other day whenever there is a pullback. Just MO.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you are often the king of late Fri.
nice take on 1.2760.

Wien GD 17:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP: thx ... found it.
I'm also fx-student ... appreciate your comments very much!
gl, gt

Cairo Amgad 17:52 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I think next support for EUR/USD is 1.2655
However, i prefer sell EUR/USD at 1.2782, 1.2795
S/L: 1.2803

Madrid GLR 17:52 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP- Understood.

london ram 17:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep hello
the moves would be up or down

Dallas GEP 17:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GLR, I don't care what direction I go really on any of these currency pairs as long as I am going the RIGHT way!!!!! Pound is going to short down also. I have absolutely no currency loyalties.

HKG SK 17:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP

I really hope so too because I am still short at 1.2749 and will prepare to wait till next week.

HKG SK 17:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP

I really hope so too because I am still short at 1.2749 and will prepare to wait till next week.

Nottingham 17:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:44 GMT

trading at low for the day and also week...will trade above this week's low next week so i would guess not much downside and some may buy for test of 6812 next week...gl gt

phils VL 17:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - a break of 43 may test 20, and that would be it for today...imo

Dallas GEP 17:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
BS HK!!!! Late moves WILL happen.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hope that it would no tbe anotehr wrong singal on eur, outside day again.

Madrid GLR 17:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP,

I pay close attention to your comments and learn from them. Thx

However, I detect some emotion on your side about wanting to be long $/€. Could that be or do you see the signals?

HKG SK 17:44 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well, looking at the price action for the passed 1/2 hour, I doubt if there will be any more action tonight.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:44 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
wosh, eur/gbp wants to try another impt one? .6750?

Global-View 17:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
It is loonie and that is a pseudonym but seriously, the more professional you come across, the greater chance to get some professional interactions.

HKG SK 17:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
While the US market is having the long weekend mood, ECB might come in and that will be much easier to push the Euro down.

Wien GD 17:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP: broker? (usually software determines broker)

Barcelona JP 17:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
OK

What about loony?

Global-View 17:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Suggestion: Caddy is a nickname for a U.S. car and to keep our Forum langauage in line with market practices, please use USD/CAD or $/CAD. It makes you sound more professional and this will encourage some of our more seasoned members to respond to you in such a manner.

Wien GD 17:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP: which trading software do you use? (link?)

Barcelona JP 17:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Pivot of Caddy now: 1,3126

R3:1,3287
R2:1,3227
R1:1,3186

S1:1,3085
S2:1,3025
S3:1,2984

Dallas GEP 17:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1.2793

Dallas GEP 17:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Already read your mind and I concurr!!!! LOL

Gen dk 17:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HKG SK 17:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Just short at 1.2749, what is your s/l GEB?

Barcelona JP 17:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Range CADDY:

1,3167 - 1,3066

HKG SK 17:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I think GEB 1.2760 is a perfect price to go short or else we will miss another 100 pips. 1.2650 by closing tonight any thought?

Dallas GEP 17:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
A word of caution to the newbies. You have to be very familiar with both thesupport and resistance levels to play in this very quick market today

1.2760 short on Euro

SA Bok 17:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 17:23 - Ticker on Top ... MAIN liquidity supplier is DB = RB

GA TJ 17:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP, So its your turn to think out loud...LOL

1.2780 for me

Miami OMIL 17:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Good idea GEP I will join you on that short at around 1.2770-80 for eur/usd. (/;->

phils VL 17:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd is ready to short again...

Pecs Andras 17:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Don't think it is wise to enter any trade now.
Look at the ticker at the top, the spreads are sometimes very wide, signs of a nervious market

Livingston nh 17:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
A lot of outside day currencies because of such tight ranges so watching the close will be important (if you believe in such) - interesting that AUD/USD, EUR/CHF and USD/JPY are not in the mix yet but EUR/YEN and EUR/GBP are - I am watching for a CAD close towards yesterday levels

HKG SK 17:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas

Have you shorted Euro yet is getting to 1.2760.

Barcelona JP 17:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
New York, February 13: The Dollar
has fallen sharply on a rumor that a Senate building has been evacuated. No word
yet on whether white powder was involved, but it"s a good bet. The Dollar has
recovered as we"ve been through this drill so many times recently.

SA Bok 17:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 17:19 GMT - Was reported before last fall , maybe just hit traders radar screens .. and an excuse ... mad mad world

Barcelona JP 17:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Boston, February 13: While
USD/CAD has recouped its early losses, it has not been as badly whipsawed as the
EUR or GBP, which have each put in major reversals. USD/CAD has simply bounced
back toward opening levels. Supporting the Loony is upbeat trade and
manufacturing data, indicating that Canadian industry is beginning to cope with
the stronger exchange rate.
Buy stops are seen above the 1.3185 level while bids are seen now on dips to
the 1.3110/15 area.

SA Bok 17:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Mad Mad World ... JF seems the Red Baron .. DB having a ball on GBP ...

Pecs Andras 17:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Rumors of white powder again in Senate
Evacuation not confirmed yet.
That is the reason for this spikes

Barcelona JP 17:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
And then: 1,3103 - 1,3096 - 1.3073

S/L: 1,3175

Gen dk 17:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 17:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thinking about shorting EUR again from 1.2760 if seen again. I dunno yet

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Out on GBP short @ 1.8835; -35

HKG SK 17:14 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Are we done for the day or will we still see more movement tonight???

Barcelona JP 17:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
If Caddy loses 1.3135 will be down to 1,3115.

beijing road 17:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bloody and happy Friday again. Both bull and bear can make tons of easy money.

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
See you JFB!!!!

Dallas GEP 17:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
That's RIGHT on the money, Seems like they very eagerly take your EDIT on your stop if the REAL market is moving against you and you are trying to widen your stop; YET trying to protect profit and you are screwed!!!!

USA Biscuit Boy 17:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Regardless of ECB intervention or not I think we can be sure 1.29 will be tested again sometime soon. If it is intervention then the market would love to take them on IMO. But I still don't believe ECB would act here. That would be inviting 1.3+++ very quickly. Probably just some range players defending a double no touch IMO.

ICT ML 17:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
a heads up for those that use a data feed from F**M on their FXTrek charts...they like to put little 30 sec. pauses on their chart feed while they take the price back against you....so keep an eye on the deal station, not the charts...I speak from numerous experiences with it, a few minutes ago a good example.

Chambery FR JFB 17:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 17:05 GMT February 13, 2004
Thx :-)

Bye all, CU on Tuesday, have a wonderful week-end!! :-)

phils VL 17:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/ud - TP 2/3s possi at 1.2746(ask) frm 1.2872..

prauge viktor 17:06 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
thanks Gep I allways fied a wise answer by u,u tolde me it will not be so easy to watch the 1,3 uv got right once agian..

B.A. BOCA 17:06 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
for cable watch fib range 1,8770-1,8860 for some direction. above or below could see harsh moves.

GL!

sarasota jf 17:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
that is a german bank that makes u see red when they hit you - but today they suggest you join them - anyway see how it goes - gt

Gen dk 17:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saloniko nk 17:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thank u ab..


Rest time ..

Bye..
nk

Chambery FR JFB 17:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 16:57 GMT February 13, 2004
May I ask who's this red baron ? :-) tia

Dallas GEP 17:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
How about cooperation!!!!

Dallas GEP 16:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, I think it is coordiantion between Japan and ECB,

sarasota jf 16:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
red baron supporting pound at 1.8790-8800

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Wooo... Nasty little POUND bounce!!!!! LOL resistance here @ 1.8820/30 level now.

Gen dk 16:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

beirut jb 16:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
closed my remaining eur/short 135 pip,

will chase some long on 127/12710 if tested again

Chambery FR JFB 16:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 16:42 GMT February 13, 2004
Thx!! Was busy watching that beat, that gave me more than ever today... closed a long @1.8970 (from 1.8930) and took a short, just in case, closed it @1.8860 and sold another break @1.8845, already 50 pips behind!! WOW!!!! :-)

ICT ML 16:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA...Soros is ( think still) with us on long GBP this time...we're just playing this pull back ( much needed) for some quick pips

SA Bok 16:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
FX Markets never cease to amaze .. from bulls to bears in matter of hours ... got to love this ... LOL
See all u GBP shorts at 1.95+ ..

Have a good weekend all

london ram 16:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico
thanks a lot

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
now all pairs are synchronized, it's a USD fight.

nk, no worry, you are always the welcomed one.

Bring us many insights and good direction.

prauge viktor 16:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gep what do u think really happened is it profit taken or compenation betwen Boj and Ecb or its just a correction

Dallas GEP 16:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP @ 1.8800

B.A. BOCA 16:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hello all... censored of a week this one has been, and very good for my -follow the easy money- cable and gbpjpy yield overachievers. still hold cable from much lower, and like i said many times, happy to hold it longer. 1,90 was hit very soon, so correction will come. but the fact that the cable rise was so one-sided should tell you something about market sentiment. let's meet Soros again past 2!
always follow the easy money. it's easier!
GL GWeekend all..

ICT ML 16:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
we are short LARGE gbp now....target open, and wary of bounce off 30 min ema200 at 1.8780

Deauville Nico 16:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
london ram 16:40 GMT February 13, 2004

What happened today? profit taking, story of options, the holy 1.29 level touched or maybe an intervention of ECB,
but fundamentaly it's the same story, the same 5 points I explained you earlier. As long as an increase of interest rates is not on the table , or a magic phrase is not said euro is good to buy IMO

Deauville Nico 16:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
london ram 16:40 GMT February 13, 2004

I set a buy order at 1.2710, I really don't think euro worth less than 1.2690

GA TJ 16:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I am looking for EURO to take a breather here. Retrace 30 or so PIPs or take a sideways move. A little over done I believe.

HK Kevin 16:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, at some times before, the Goose always makes some dramatic moves at IMM after NY close.

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
pound just got +50 pips from 1.8850 level

Euro is finding more support

ICT ML 16:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JFB....1.8735-40..yes...in trend moves, the stair steps become as important as the diagonal lines.....

saloniko nk 16:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:35 GMT February 13, 2004

I always do ..;)

But my bad English dont help me offer my ideas better when asking or sharing my ideas...and sometimes many are censored with me...

Anyway thats life!

May be i have to learn Chinesse one day..

nk

Deauville Nico 16:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb 16:37 GMT February 13, 2004

Sure! trend is still long! I'm pretty sure we won't see a level inferior to the one we had before grandy Green talked.

london ram 16:40 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico hello.
are you still in your opinion that the eur/$ will rise again or you changed your previous view for rising
thanks

prauge viktor 16:40 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
thanks

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
in other words, the more the eur moves, the more the cad moves....

Melbourne PL 16:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Where can I get free realtime news

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, 1.2720 has some support for Euro but I beleive 1.2680 may be resting spot today.

beirut jb 16:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico,

Agree intraday basis,

on swing basis we have now 2 signals:

trend still long

129 rejection favorise ranging i.e more drop

GL GT

Gen dk 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, QIndex gave us hints already...

commod. will follow eur moves.
be a patient for a bit more seconds.

Dallas GEP 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Out at +35 pips on Eur/USD short

prauge viktor 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hello all I need help if there any one can say wher is the end of this move is 1,2645 or 1,215 thanks I think Gep maby I can fiend the answer by your help today is a black day 13,02,2004

SA Bok 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Paris JC 16:34 - What you see is correct

Deauville Nico 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1.2740

USA Biscuit Boy 16:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Good to finally see somee volatility returning. I personally don't believe ECB intervened, rather just profit taking ahead of long weekend in the US after we failed to make a new high for euro.

I would love to be buying euros here on any day except a Friday! Will wait till next week. Have a good one all :)

phils VL 16:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - 1.27 = key for today, below this = 1.2650 today..

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nk get it.

did you read bc post this morning?

I think similar idea to yours.

Keep 1 secret.

LAX-LGB SNP 16:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
buying USD finally worked out but only due to averaged trades but no complaints @ all :-) !!!

NT ... NH ... DAT ... JF - thanks for your views

ICT ML 16:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1.2727

Paris JC 16:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Excuse me people.. I might have some kind of a fluke on my terminal.. What's the Euro/USD trading at right now?

Deauville Nico 16:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
euro is good to buy from 1.2710

saloniko nk 16:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab,

Keep ur startegy secret always...

I dont feel coumfortable to open my cards...

I dint sent mail to my best frd here to cut anything..

Yeaa..im sensitive and thats why always i want help free even here sharing my thoughts but most times in General...

nk

HK Kevin 16:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I only gain very little profit after being stop out on short EUR/CHF. Hope the long USD/CAD position could be my profit driver, but it don't move even EUR/$ dive to 1.2728 now.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur s/l hit now.

come on, this stubborn dlr/jpy...

Gen dk 16:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 16:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1,2750 and 1.8850 on Euro and GBP are keys now. Break thru thses leve;sand we probably see 50 PIPS

Nottingham 16:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eurnzd...trendline 1.8130 last key low 1.8107
euraud...last key low 1.6127

but both some distance to go b4 o/s (sub 1.60/1.80)

beirut jb 16:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ still long on daily basis, also129 rejection can open the door to more ranging and consolidation period,

I m waiting 12730/127 to close my other half short position
lowered stop to 12810

Chambery FR JFB 16:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 16:22 GMT February 13, 2004
ML : sorry I think I found it : double top on 02/10 and 02/11 @1.8733 (bid)? am I right? :-)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nk, may I ask you a qns?

If you long usd, then, why don't you choose long chf lower and lower but short eur higher higher? TIA!

Miami OMIL 16:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 16:19 GMT February 13, 2004
Have fun and hope you recharge the batteries for next week. (/;->

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:25 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, it just helps me to cover some loss on nzd and aud.
Sometimes, timing is your greatest enemy GT.

HK Kevin 16:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Eur 1.2710 may worth a small intraday long if you are still flat.

Miami OMIL 16:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
We are still on Road until these numbers a cracked the market is still bullish IMHO.
Miami OMIL 09:32 GMT February 13, 2004
Interesting GEP I will buy that!! LOL
Boring session but maybe the US data will put a spark on the eur/usd pair to break either way. Right now technically eur/usd should short yesterday’s fib retracement are still valid. With supports in the same place 1.2780-90, 1.2750, 1.2680-90 and finally the last bottom formed at 1.2650. The resistance is well known by now at 1.2850 if that is taken then 1.2900 levels will be met. That is the level I see a lot of trouble cracking IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Miami OMIL 02:42 GMT February 12, 2004
The name of the game is still buy on dips on eur/usd looking to test 1.2900 area again as I said before. ML is right cable and eur/usd have not been retracing fully lately so I will be adding on any dips. Fib retracement for this past move (only estimate) 1.2775-70, 1.2750-45 and 1.2730-25

saloniko nk 16:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:12 GMT February 13, 2004

ab,

I think that will see a Brave bounch of Euro but may be frome lower levels like 1.2650 even 1.25

What im watching now is to sell on any Good bounch Euro..
and waiting and Selling higher and higher and higher..

Have a nice weekend!

nk

Athens 16:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
My model was right this week as to which direction the pressure would be, however my feeling also was right in that we have been too long on a very big trend and therefore chasing the USD downside is no longer a bargain trading case. Flat at present and watching the opposite market forces. Have a good weekend all.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Next surprise is on dlr/jpy.

HK Kevin 16:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, it's a profitable Fri for you.

phils VL 16:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - take it away babe... mama lervs ya...

Chambery FR JFB 16:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hi ML... I have the same t/l @1.8850, but can't find your 1.8740 one... Where does it come from if you don't mind :-) TIA

Nottingham 16:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Cable goes 900pts in 10 days...did this at the turn of the year then lost 2/3 of it before rallying...don't know it we'll repeat but certainly 1.85/6 is poss with 1.2650 on euro and aussie 7820...all as poss lows for next week...gl gt

GA TJ 16:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ML

GBPJPY: I got first possible entry at 197.63. If it gets run over then 194.90 is next. That should hold it if it even gets to that level. I might avoid this pair for a while but that addiction is hard to break.

sarasota jf 16:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
omil
some smart people here pointed out some big levels today gbpyen 200 gbp 1.9000 eur 1.29 - so today is not the last day of trading - personally more interested in the limo taking me to atlantic city but happy to see a gbp correction underway - to put in play on the blackjack table

Pecs Andras 16:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Looks like we are going to get Farmacia's 200+ range today on cable.
Only the low will be differnet from what most of us would have thought...

Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Both GBP and Euro look to me to both be dumpers. They are just barely holding on in my view.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
It matches the day very well ----Black Friday.

Pecs Andras 16:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Here comes the next leg ...

ICT ML 16:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
TJ....this is bloody Friday man...if it breaks this support....it will be worth sticking around for the free fall...300 pip fridays aren't that rare these days...

Miami OMIL 16:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
sarasota jf 16:08 GMT February 13, 2004
I think you might be right but what ever that was the market knows were the line on the sand is on eur/usd (1.2900) definitely. (/;->

Malaga boqueron 16:14 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, re create doubt and confusion. Totally agree, big boys trying to get the little guys to act on their emotions. Normally fatal.

GA TJ 16:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

I am getting the number 1.8753 as the first Buy Entry (signal permitting) then 1.8631. Now the hard question is to Short down to that area or go fishin..... or golf.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nk, is your new handle ready yet????

nk 1.14?

Dallas GEP 16:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
This MAY be part of the Asian and ECB pact that has been alluded to to help the dollar. Be VERY VERY careful.

HK Kevin 16:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Still holding my long USD/CAD from 1.3072, it needs to break 1.3160 for challenging today's high. Funny, the 1st time sell EUR is better than the Goose.

Nottingham 16:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 16:05 GMT

Shed load of stop loss seling from specs countered the buying...these players aren't stupid, they will cover defensive shorts at such points to get the good levels on their greater volume

NYC JC 16:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
all right, i am out. have a good long weekend! :)

sarasota jf 16:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
its a ny holiday monday for the most part - market is thinner than usual and profit taking ahead of that pushed it lower - if the ecb intervened for the first time the market would be 300-500 points lower - each subsequent time the move would be less - trade as normal - imo

Dallas GEP 16:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I think market was hit with a stun gun. Used to create doubt and confusion, and thus far it has worked. Just look at us for example!!!!

Miami OMIL 16:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 15:56 GMT February 13, 2004
The supports are still in place and I still feel that the market is buying on dips. 1.2900 is a heavily protected area and that was expected in a way. (/;->

saloniko nk 16:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Simple ..

Check 1998,1999 weekly Euro/gbp @ 0.67+ and frome the other side Euro prices..


Somthing says Euro is close to the END @ least may be a last bounch...


nk

ICT ML 16:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
TJ...IF..I get some decent buy signals, and 1.8850 holds, I'll start accumulating again....if it doesn't hold, than 1.8740-35 is next real critical support...so I will sell it down to there if need be...

Gbp/Jpy...tath is a tough one..next support I have is WAY down there at 197...and I don't know if the carry boys will hold that long if it really dumps ....

beirut jb 16:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta, I hope u wasn't long eur/$ mate

Porto PJT 16:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Long gbp/usd at 77 stop at 45.

saloniko nk 16:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..


1998,1999 if history says somthing for those who believe it Euro maximum was @ 1.14

I was a Euro Bull frome 0.88 last years for those who rememper But im watching like a hawk to run away and Sell more on any Euro bounch cos i feel very cold here @ Everest..


nk

Pecs Andras 16:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I don't buy this option protection stuff. If these guys sell a lot in the 28 highs, they have to reload somewhere in the mid or low 28 to have amunition for further protection of the 29 level. Obviously they did not, or did not agressively do so, because EUR was falkling steadily under 2850

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well guys, I respectfully disagree. I believe it is Intervention. Could be wrong. It certainly wouldn't be the first time!!!!! (that I was wrong, I mean)

Bris TW 16:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg Terminal states ECB`s answer to the question was " No Comment"

SA Bok 16:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Is it HALF day in NY today or not any more ? TIA

GA TJ 16:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

Do you have a number in mind where you are going to start loading up on GBPUSD abd GBPJPY?

GA TJ 16:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Latest IFR rumor

Traders who say an Asian player protecting a large DNT option was responsible for the EUR selling are dismissing rumors of EUR intervention.

Malaga boqueron 16:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Agree with all those saying it's best to do nothing today. Probably nothing more than an attempt to shakeout USD shorts, but definitely doesn't change the longer term USD downtrend.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
add one more aud/nzd long 1.1245

warsaw mach 16:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
CBS is telling me that there is intervention by BoJ

Memphis Charles 16:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Then the shake out would open the way to 1.30++ We shall see.

ICT ML 15:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
cable stopped at my first major support area so far.....1.8860-50 area....so we will soon see if this is the end of the breakout or just a mmuch needed pull back to get a good running start at the barriers....

Paris JC 15:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Look at the GBP history people.. It always reaches this level before backing to the 1.70 range, then it jumps back to above 1.90 All within a 60 day frame

Nottingham 15:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
an hourly close at 86 or higher important for euro...bulls could do with that

boulder dat 15:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Livingston NH....

I couldn't agree more. this is a move, but nothing that substantial. I just bought more euro's.

Porto PJT 15:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd nice touch on uptrendline.

Ldn Mvs 15:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
For those who think this is CB intervention of some sort, think again - there is no way that they would intervene under present conditions - it would send out the wrong message - this move is all about option protection - 1.9000 on GBP and 1.2900 EUR & players getting caught into the move the wrong way, getting stopped out and then going the other way - CB's have no reason to step in at this juncture

beijing road 15:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : if eur can close above 1.2750, it is still ok to buy on dips.

hong kong nt 15:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab -- gold is beautiful, retrace exactly 62%, hit my order and fall...

Atlanta 15:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY: Cross Decline Could Add Pressure To Carry Trades

Deauville Nico 15:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
An other sell wave should occur around 1.2800 if seen stop 1.2815

Swiss DG 15:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Tried long on Eur. Will see..

beijing road 15:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : got it. thks.

Livingston nh 15:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I'd be surprised if there was any ECB involvement - EUR and cable overbought a bit on G'span and then we got giddy twice this morning but couldn't push thru 1.29 and 1.90 so folks started started dumping and rumors about ECB piled on - so now we are back to yesterday's lows// the trade figs with EU showed about a 15% increase in imports to US from EU which is about an exact match with the move in EUR/USD - this is not a big deal yet

Pecs Andras 15:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
SA Bok 15:52 GMT February 13, 2004
Yeah, they always say that is the only thing that they don't want, and that is what they always get LOL

Paris 15:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hi all..
Is there any possibility in censored this wasn't the ECB?

Memphis Charles 15:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
How about intervention by the U.S. to keep the dollar weak? Wouldn't that be rich - an intervention war.

Pecs Andras 15:52 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
phils VL 15:48 GMT February 13, 2004
Hats off to you mate
Enjoy your short!

SA Bok 15:52 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
So G7 statement "we dont want volatility " is put to shame ...LOL .. they really look stupid now ... useless bunch ..

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 15:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Tried a long again for EUR

Porto PJT 15:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gecko, nice call on gbp jpy.

Dallas GEP 15:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Euro @ 1.2770 Very Aggressive. Let's see what ECB has in mind.

GA TJ 15:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I see all this "Turning Point for the Dollar" post. I don't buy it. When I look at the euro Daily the area that stands out is 1.2400. You got big EMA's (50+), trend lines, previous lows, support, list goes on. 1.3000 will be taken out in do course. May take a while if the daily's start to range 1.2400- 2900. An that would be a good thing too from a trading perspective.

Memphis Charles 15:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
'twould take a lot of testosterone to go long in a big way at the present moment.

phils VL 15:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - the tickling ain't funny...lets go guys...!!

Sydney Alimin 15:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy is not following? hmm BOJ is sleeping at the moment...maybe next week

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf 1.58 breaks next.

Miami OMIL 15:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Road I still believe there are some barriers that the bears must break before this is considered a bear market but this is a good start for the bears. I had commented earlier about the 1.2900 barrier not going to be a easy to break but the charts where indicating it would be broken. Now we will see how far this bear sentiment will take us and keep your stop loss tight looks like we have heavy hitters in the ball park at the moment IMHO. (/;->

Memphis Charles 15:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I'd love to see the reaction to another run at 1.2850 or so.

Bris TW 15:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I must say if that was ECB then it was a perfect level to do so to achieve maximum effect.

singapore emperor 15:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp breaks 0.6760.. will sail to 0.6650-60....

Memphis Charles 15:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Could be.. I quit trading when it behaves like this.

Porto PJT 15:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 15:43 , mine too.

Ldn 15:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles this is a set up job trapping he market into self confidence and then they go chop chop

Nottingham 15:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
euro stops gone

Deauville Nico 15:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Next target 1.2700

Pecs Andras 15:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
My Caddy long looks good

Ldn 15:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
This is all the CB s together , and could be a turning point for the USD .

Memphis Charles 15:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I guess ECB told Greenie to cram it.

Pecs Andras 15:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Once we lose these levels, game over for today

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
so interesting, dlr/jpy pegged one side by BOJ the other side by spect and exporters.....


avalanche!

phils VL 15:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - some support seen ard 80... whats it gonna be.. recharge for another leg dwn or stagger for the nx session...?

Wien GD 15:40 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Joe - surprised by CB's intervention? Take it easy!
I'm not. Take a look at the USD ... would have gone to da censored.
Probably EZB and BOJ cause the reversal.

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
OK I feel ECB will try to drive through that 1.2775 level

Chicago 15:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Looks like topside stops were taken out now "they" will gun for the trailing stops below the mkt. This comment seems appropriate for euro, pound etc as well as gold, stocks etc. This could get nasty.

Deauville Nico 15:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1.2870 is gonna break....

beijing road 15:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : do you think eur/usd bullish trend has changed already?thks.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP, these people sell the rumour buy the fact...

warsaw mach 15:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
we will see. For sure this flow is going through big banks (we don't see any flow )

Bris TW 15:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
London Joe 15:31 GMT

Must be a Chelsea supporter...Nose in the air so high lucky they still are walking heh

Beware Joe you are only a small fish :-) Even the club owner is in this market

Dallas GEP 15:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
But just in case I did close out my Eur/uasd LONG LOL!!!!!

Porto PJT 15:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Any views on usd cad?seams bottom is in place.

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Tell you what, I sat *uck the sharks!!!! IFR says ECB is SELLLING euros on the market

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
think next interesting move will be on jpy. But could be both ways...

lodz andy 15:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
warsaw mach: disregarding the next several days action this intervention will more than surely help the large trend to reverse, cheers:)

Miami OMIL 15:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
London Joe 15:31 GMT February 13, 2004

Lighten up JOE or take your medication if you can’t take a joke than simply don’t read my comments. Hope that helps. (/;->

Atlanta 15:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham a dollar rally has been an accident waiting to happen you are right

hong kong nt 15:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab -- hope you may score some 500 pts on your long dlr/chf position...

Helsinki iw 15:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Re intervention: If the ECB was to conduct aggressive inter-
vention(through memeber banks), they would show their
name in the market for maximum effect. Suspect this is some-
thing else.

Miami OMIL 15:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Welcome to the turbulent times I feared would come. We are going to need a bigger boat. (/;->

Ldn 15:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Central Bank Finger Prints Becoming Clearer
European central banks let the market turn on its own before
giving it a shove to the down

London Joe 15:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 15:28 GMT February 13, 2004
The sharks are feeding so if you are a small fish stay out of the water. (/;->

You sir are an idiot. This is called foreign exchange.

warsaw mach 15:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
andy: i think the first was at 1.2890 (drop to 1.2820) second at 1.2830 (drop to 1.2780) waiting for next and the break of 1,2770

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
the move won't be effective if 300 pips are not SEEN.

GA TJ 15:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

Nice call. I thought this whole thing looked a little strange this morning. My gut was telling me not to get suckered into it. I had a bunch of open orders that I removed. Everyone of those things would have been hammered by now. Chalk one up to intuition (guess I'm in touch with my feminine side today).

So far my best guess today is that the range from the last few days has expanded a bit. If so it will carry over to next week.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nt, hope that my dlr/chf could be a good m/t trade now.

Miami OMIL 15:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The sharks are feeding so if you are a small fish stay out of the water. (/;->

Atlanta 15:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Heavy German Sales Spark Intervention Rumors

Joburg cd 15:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bok I'll paraphrase what you said to me in msg this morning: sell dollar, until mr g & co change their tune. Fundamentals haven't changed.

lodz andy 15:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
warsaw mach: the first intervention may not succeed tho if that is the case now, cheers:)

phils VL 15:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami Omil

eur/usd - reckon this pair is truly exhausted at the high. Wl watch to see if there is follow-thru on dwnside, as it cud be a 'failure' thing on first attempt. On the other and we will know later if the EZ have 'retaliated'....

GT GL

sf mike 15:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Taht was bloody, I got whipped.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nt, you and your wife have done a great job again!!!!

Dallas GEP 15:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
European CB intervention, NO DOUBT.

Geneva Alan 15:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1st good sup 1.2780 ...maybe chance for rebound...
2nd sup 1.2730 ...crucial

beirut jb 15:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ here is first taking profit level if 12780 break

we may have 12750, 12730

out half position here 100pip

lowering stop from 12920 to 12830

hong kong nt 15:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab -- see if long usd/chf at 1.225 may work again today...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
No doubts on intervention now????

warsaw mach 15:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
as i've sad 1.29 and massive drop. look at 1.2777 if broken prepare for 1.27... 1.26 ...

SA Bok 15:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Somebody is thumping the EUR ...1.2895 = Line in Sand ?
Double Top ? Thoughts ? TIA

Joburg cd 15:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
oh,I see you ARE riding a steer

AlexVA Dennis 15:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
can you say "implosion"?

ICT ML 15:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
And from Yesterday.......

ICT ML 17:46 GMT February 12, 2004
Tomorrow....we feed :->


Usa monster that is what I was alluding to..
Stop Running...Sucker em' into the water and then smack em' over the head and gobble up their positions.

Bucharest Razvan 15:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Out EUR long at 1.2850 on trailing stop.. I'm out.. Good luck everyone!

PS: Looks like a black week for eur next week.. we'll see

Pecs Andras 15:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I am long caddy from 3105

Nottingham 15:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Everyone and his taxi driver has been long euro...could be a lot of pain for ppl if my stops taken

Atlanta 15:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ALSO Intervention Rumors
Very heavy selling on the way back down by a German name
may be an official element to the swift pullback from 1.2895

Irish EU head Ahern was on the tape
over the strong EUR impact on exporters

Helsinki iw 15:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Buy dollars, wear diamonds.The guys at Marshalls were right.

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well USD/JPY is being jacked with it seems What a surprise.

Sydney Alimin 15:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
what a week of volatility eh? g7 dont want this and this is what they get..perfect

Joburg cd 15:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gep, what's the thinking behind the eur long, or are you just riding a steer?

Miami OMIL 15:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
phils VL 15:17 GMT February 13, 2004
One more good thing that eur/usd short has is that it did not break the almighty 1.2900 barrier. (/;->

Geneva Alan 15:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ATLANTA
Right, to much long positions with ectic market coming up in
NY seesion
Let s see >>>>>

singapore emperor 15:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
what happen to eur? rmr intervention ?

SA Bok 15:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP stays under MACD on Hourlies .. bearish ..

Atlanta 15:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
also holiday on Monday market will close earlier or wind down

Dallas GEP 15:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Longed Euro @ 1.2820

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
the eur/chf limit is too greedy, otherwise, the 1.5755 should be filled instead.

Sydney Alimin 15:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
woohooo rollercoaster ride on eur/usd anyone? :)

Atlanta 15:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Euro coming back a lot probably a buy under 128 what a crazy situation.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
thought the cad hurts, the chf is pretty good now!

phils VL 15:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
st. pete Islander

tks - it has to get dwn below 1.2770 today, to do damage..imo better than average chance it will get this done. All 2 hrly indicators -- macd, roc, stox etc are showing bearish divergence since coupla hours ago...

GT GL

Dublin CK 15:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta. 15:07 GMT February 13, 2004

FX - friday profit taking

Equities - Int rates staying low, plus more and more money from funds and pensions entering the market buying shares to improve their portfolio.

LDN SAM 15:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I think it's bullsh*** but anybody hearg ECB intervention?

iom stan 15:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Yes atlanta they are all nutty. We are back in the USA and are astounded by the high prices and inflation since last year and we earn Sterling so what it would be like if the pound was still @ 1.50 to the $ one can only wonder. One thing for sure I just do not believe the inflation figures that this lot are putting out.

Atlanta 15:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD easing back . "The real danger here is that everyone gets caught long," dealer

thanks found some info

Cairns aussie 15:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
wow.."what a ride..

Helsinki iw 15:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Oh my, failed to take out the top and now a daily reversal
in the making? If so watch the market head alot lower.
Eraly days yet though, back on Monday to check the damage.

st. pete islander 15:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
VL .... Hats off. Well done.

Dublin Flip 15:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
No probs Chicago.
Yeah I was long from Iraq2 and tax cuts for most of the year.
I've been short this year giving a bit back but thanks to trading ranges not too bad at this stage -touch wood.
I think big picture I think this anti-dollar thing is a huge carry trade that will fall over. Now whether we turn around from ciric eur 1.29, ozz 80 or >5% higher is the difference.
This Euro selling is looking a bit surreal......

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
woosh.....

Geneva alan 15:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
After this BIG news, Euro/usd seems topish on 1.2870.
RSI divergence and momentum show good selling opportunity;

Atlanta. 15:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Totally lost stocks are up dollar up on bad numbers plese would someone explain this phenomenom

sarasota jf 15:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ml 90 high in gbp

Nottingham 15:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
post greeny low for euro is 1.2786...below there and every short-term spec account is losing...stops for many at 1.2785/75...gl gt

st. pete islander 15:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
OMIL .... well maybe not their life .. but they sure have been using some large money. 2 way market this day, at least. gt

Chicago 15:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dublin: I was 'lucky' enough to have caught most of last years uptrend in SP and RL......But dumb enough to sell out at the end of December.....No doubt when I pull the trigger and get back in we'll print the highs....

beirut jb 15:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
yes atlanta

Barcelona JP 15:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I think they are for another run today.

I they can not trade over .2900 and .8900, time to close.

Miami OMIL 15:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Maybe some one is protecting the 1.2900 barrier with their life. (/;->

Atlanta 15:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb
you are shorting the Euro ??

HK [email protected] 15:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 2
I am not trading really for such short term, but I use pipsology for my general orientation.
So let us think common sense.
If gold entered the daily channel again I think the way up is open. Watch silver too if it breaks higher than the highest high.
Daily indicators for euro look good. Still no immunity for short teerm setback.

Dublin Flip 15:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Chicago, the stock market is up because crap numbers mean low intrest rates. The stock market is one big carry trade (like everything else). When we had fears of higher USD rates we bought USD and sold the equities.
It's not about economics but cashflow these days regretably.

ICT ML 15:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Anyone with EBS see 1.8988 bid trade?

Chicago 15:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
April gold holding above 416 resistance, but still 3% off its Jan highs.

GA TJ 15:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP I think you were thinking what I am thinking. That is this moves looks a little suspecious. I am not ready to fade it but I do have my doubts that it will continue. Take this with a grain of salt because I was the nimrod who bailed out the other day before Uncle Al spoke and left a Bunch-O-PIPs on the table.

Barcelona JP 14:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well:
Eur/usd 1,2897
GBP/USD 1,8991

beirut jb 14:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
added more short eur/$ at 12886

Atlanta 14:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Why did the dollar strength on the last number was it profit taking ??

Miami OMIL 14:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Interesting that with all this data against the dollar the eur/usd has not broken 1.2900. Maybe this is a good sign that dollar will begin to get stronger after all. (/;->

Chicago 14:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Wow, these stocks just will not stay down! 1162+ SP target?

Sydney2 14:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected], I placed to take profit at 1.2915, what is your view? tia

Dallas GEP 14:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well that last usd.cad long possie was dumber than a bag of rocks!!!! Not sure WTF I was thinking!!!!!

HK [email protected] 14:52 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
With the value of gold....Read again please. maybe I am right.

HK [email protected] 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004
EURO: 1.2893 is already very possible.... If you see that number good chances you see also 1.2915


AlexVA Dennis 14:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
That was the "whisper" number noted earlier.

GENEVA FHR 14:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
UOM 93.1

Dallas GEP 14:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Closed long USD/CAD @ 1.3095

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thumbs up nh,

thanks a lot for the links ! ;-)

Livingston nh 14:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Belgium -http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ - this is the site - use Public Access

Livingston nh 14:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
PAr - US consumers don't know about USD value - they know about jobs and outsourcing and politics

phils VL 14:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - TP at 1.2799 (ask) frm 1.2820. Second short at 1.2830 stopped out at 1.2859. Third short frm 1.2872, s/l abv 1.2900

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Ah Livingston nh,

any idea how to subscribe? :-)

Dublin Flip 14:40 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
no worries mate.
Today's Michigan feelgood number might keep the USD on the back foot. When sentiment is lined up the risk from the data seems to be in the same direction.
i.e. crap number USD urs, good number no reaction

Livingston nh 14:40 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The sentiment index is released to subscribers early and then is published to the world the leaks from subscribers start between 15 and 10 mins before the hour - watch the market - by the time the number is OUT it will be old news

hong kong nt 14:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab -- 1.3000/50 may provide good sup for dlr/cad...

Chicago 14:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thx for your views Dublin. Agree that a slow grind higher would seems to be the outlook for today. If I were short dollars (well I am long metals) I wouldn't be closing unless the trade stopped working, and as you say euro,pound etc are close to their highs.

PAR 14:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
A weakening dollar is extremely bad for US consumer sentiment as is Friday the 13th.

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I've got 14.50GMT in my agenda. Should it be 14.45GMT?

Brisbane 14:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
expiries USD/JPY 500mln+ at 105.00 15gmt

Dublin Flip 14:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I am also long Gold to mute the Eur$ move but it's been a bit of dud hedge. I'm a bit more medium/long term but with a long history of day trading nonetheless.

Dublin Flip 14:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Chicago there has been a lot of two way business going through. I assure you this isn't thin price pushing going on. I'm sure we are seeing some heavy distribuition but you would expect some people will be sell 25pips below the old high and bang a stop above 1.29
I'm not saying I'm dollar bearish at these levels but being friday, being the 13th and being a long weekend as we test new highs across the board I'd be thinking some further cathartic topside is on the cards. Believe me I'm not talking my book. I'm short Eur/jpy and that's the same as being short Eur with a pegged $jpy.

Sydney2 14:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Livingston, GMT?

Nottingham 14:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
closed cad trade...will buy again if goes lower afta sentiment number/euro thru 1.29...ideally to buy 1.30/1.2985 but not sure I'll see it...may buy half at 1.3030 if seen and add more lower...we shall see...for now 50% retracement holding...gl gt

HK [email protected] 14:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Just for Ref. it is good to watch gold. a break above 416,mentioned in (HK [email protected] 10:31 GMT February) , is food for Euro thinking.

Livingston nh 14:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
UoM 14:45

Sydney2 14:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks to those friends here for giving their euro target.
Livingston, when does the Prelimin Univ of Mich sentiment number comes out?

Miami OMIL 14:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks islander I guess the little fish will always have the disadvantage. (/;->

Bris TW 14:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well it looked like cable passed R2 and euro passed my R1 levels as noted previously by figures that would not be considerd a break and should stay range bound between S1 and R1 for the rest of the session. The Goose could not break R3 and was a very good sell at that figure to target S3.
Good Trades

Chicago 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
For example, I am short cable from 1.8950. My stop is above 1.9000. Regardless I will close by Chicago close unless mkt ends 1.8850 or better.

st. pete islander 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
OMIL .... We all have those days!

Dallas GEP 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Some buyers just now on Eur/cad

nyc jk 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JP, I agree with your view, but nothing is for "sure" in this business. gl

HK [email protected] 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EURO: 1.2893 is already very possible.... If you see that number good chances you see also 1.2915

BCN JR 14:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I talk about censored

Barcelona JP 14:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold is up

Manama MT 14:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Guys just be careful of your trades and remeber it is Friday. Anything unexpected could happen. Watch your profit.

Barcelona JP 14:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR is goin to hit 1,2900 today. Sure.

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks nh (Livingston)

BCN JR 14:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I suffered stop hunting from censored some days ago 25 pips over the market, and today they don't work at news. A lot of warning signs ! Be careful I'll close soon the acount.

Miami OMIL 14:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sorry should have not asked that. Just frustrated with my broker. (/;->

Barcelona JP 14:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
If Michigan sentiment comes below expect. will see EUR/USD 1,2900 and GBP/USD 1,8900

PAR 14:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
With higher US interest rates Japanese could start to consume again and buy products instead of US treasuries.

GVI Jay 14:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GVI 13:36 GMT February 13, 2004
Dec trade deficit $42.48 bln, Nov revised to $38.35 bln vs. preliminary $38.01 bln. Exports -0.2%, Imports +3.0%

Canadian Dec trade surplus C5.43 bln vs. C4.45 bln in Nov

Chicago 14:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dublin: Are their really specs out there who are adding to long dollar positions given the move we've had?? I can understand taking intra-day $ longs but then not carrying them overnight unless they are in the money by a comfortable cushion.

SA Bok 14:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Seems GBPJPY sellers holding back GBPUSD on first attempt ...only a matter of time

Miami OMIL 14:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Any hints at least? I would appreciated.

sarasota jf 14:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
tw- dont ruin a good thing

Bris TW 14:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 14:12 GMT

The answer would be deleted by greedy admins of this forum as they receive no funding from advertising heh :)

beirut jb 14:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
short euro/$ stop 12920

To BA 14:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ok my data feed is down (of course) I'm long on eur/usd. I checked some other charting source - it looks like euro went up - am I right?...thanks

Livingston nh 14:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Belgium - TRADE
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/press.html

Miami OMIL 14:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 14:08 GMT February 13, 2004
Who is your broker?

SA Bok 14:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
PAR 14:09 GMT - Could be an answer for US , for the rest would mean more trouble as US consumer is only big buyer ...of the worlds products ... IMHO ...

mex sjs 14:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
sydney2, my tgt is between 1.2970-1.3020 area, if it extends a lot more, i will be liquid or start shorting above 1.3200 gl & gt

PAR 14:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Best way to reduce US trade deficit is to raise US interest rates to a more appropriate level to reduce the unbearable demand of US consumers for credit and imported goods.

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Can anybody tell me what the USA trade balance reported or where I can find the report?

Thanks

Dallas GEP 14:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JP, yeah mine does the same thing. You have to have orders waiting or they won't get executed sometimes

Livingston nh 14:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Prelimin Univ of Mich sentiment number (Feb) is likely to show a weaker than expected number - probably under 100// this is a "soft" statistic which is generally meaningless but it might be enough to push 1.29 EUR and Cable 1.90

Bris TW 14:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
My broker was actually up to 5 pips lower from EBS and 2-4 secs lagged behind actual figures and accepted the orders without any issue. I dont see why others use small broker firms IMO

Dublin Flip 14:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Look this is definately not book talking I can painfully assure you but...
the Anti-dollars aren't showing any weakening signs just now.
Eur and stelring re ten pips from their highs and ozz,kiwi and cad on theirs. The averages have added and cross their fingers for a get of jail free card. Being NY long weekend friday I woldn't be too cute. If nothing comes into this we will take out the last, desperate remaining dollar bulls at some stage this afternoon. As I said I'd love to be wrong but the "risks" are firmly to the USD downside for the moment.

Nottingham 14:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:05 GMT

just have...first wave should be over...if not then 1.3030/1.300/1.2985

Barcelona JP 14:06 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP.

We could see USD/CAD at 1.2950.

Need help. I had enough with censored, my broker.
You never can jump in when there is a data. Their platform rejects your order.
Same to you?

SA Bok 14:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 -Try the national debt of the Third World and Asia ..

HK Kevin 14:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 13:55 GMT, buy USD/CAD at 1.3060, stop under 1.3030. Does it worth a try?

Eilat Dolphin 14:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sydney 2/ They all seem overbought, tired of climbing on the $, sort of. Not a reason to risk $ long imo, but some correction could start today from these levels or hardly above.

Dallas GEP 14:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Michigan Sentiment is @ 14:45

SA Bok 14:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Any Signs of Official Sales up here in EUR , GBP ?

GBPJPY 200 , one battle MOF is winnining indirectly ..LOL

Dallas GEP 14:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
That USD.CAD long is taking a double hit right now with both US data being bad and CAD data being good. I thought CAD data being good was already priced in the market but apprarently not.

Nottingham 14:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sydney2 13:56 GMT

Needs to take 1.29 otherwise traders may call it a week...still US confidence might give another leg as priced in for good numbers as far as expectations go so any surprise will be felt most if number disappoints imo

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
stops @73 seems endangered.

Nottingham 13:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
gbp crosses starting to roll over and to lesser extent euro crosses too, tho not sure what this means as its poss for $ weakness to occur when gbp crosses go down (usddem gbpdem)...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
am really interested how much jpy MOF need to spend on pegging like this.

Sydney2 13:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
any view on euro target please? tia

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
long small dlr/chf 1.2265.

Helsinki iw 13:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trade gap rise largely due to higher energy prices and US
demand for machine tools. Fed director Poole commenting
that FED must pre-empt rise in inflation. Can´t see dollar
dumping on this. IMHO

Pecs Andras 13:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
anybody got the Canada data?
My news plugin is frozen

Nottingham 13:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
cad spt at 1.3060/70 (retracement) 1st o/s 1.2985 2nd 1.2925

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
wow, this dlr/jpy is amazing. made me want to watch the show before home.

melbourne farmacia 13:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab - yen 105.33 - peg at 105.30 -

Pecs Andras 13:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Caddy under 3100
Not a good omen for the dollar

Dallas GEP 13:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bought this CADDY long off the 1.3120 support level but as a short term trade, it looks to be a mistake

SA Bok 13:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
105.32-37

BOJ and MOF just soaking up supply ... and maybe offer some to the few buyers hehe

Porto Azarento 13:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The best buy? (i think so)

buy usd/jpy 105.36 ....

SA Bok 13:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
wow again 13:47 - get all your Money out , see the warning signs ...

Same for other account holders

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
can someone give a valid quote on dlr/jpy now?

or MOF declare to peg it there

Chicago 13:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Definately a muted reaction. FX aside, bonds had already made their move prior to the number and stocks were only knocked down a tad and are still up from the close.

Dublin Flip 13:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The RBNZ have not intervened at least since the 1980s. I'm pretty sure they have never intervened. It's not in their policies.

Nottingham 13:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Pair o/b 1 o/b 2
Euro 1.2922 1.2987
Aussie - 0.7928
NZD$ 0.7049 0.7075

(pays to sell oceanic above 1st o/b lately)

Deauville Nico 13:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Yeah good week end Hk!!!

SA Bok 13:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Seems Mr G has as always the most effect in the market ...

Chicago 13:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/DLR and cable just can't seem to get out of their own way. I wonder if we try to run stops both on the upside and the downside before the session is out. That would certainly inflict the most pain.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
oops, sorry, erratic chart.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
is that nzd intervention now???

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
break even (-5) stop on eur/gbp long and good weekend everyone.

put a buy limit 1.5735 beofre leaving on eur/chf.

Nottingham 13:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
cad trade better than expected + last month bal revised higher

PAR 13:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan sees no inflation but import prices are up 1.3 % in ONE MONTH.

PBoro JC 13:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
For cable, watching GBP/JPY 200 level. If no resistance then Gbp clear to breeze through 1.89...1.90... but I'd expect some pchycological play aound there

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmm,,,testing fig on CADDY Bounced hard up the first time. BAck there again. I THINK it will hold

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ball is sent back to ECB now....

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
wow, the dlr/jpy dead again....
all the strength sheds to other majors?

but gbp/jpy is on the fire now... 200 coming soon?

Pecs Andras 13:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Any Cad data out?

Pecs Andras 13:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Long cable from 50 stop under 8900

Dallas GEP 13:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Also long CADDY 1.3122

Deauville Nico 13:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Took gain at 1.2862 doesn't seem to be so powerful this trend....

Sydney2 13:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Data shout be out, why no movement?

usa monster 13:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML
pliz explain when u get time
stop running

Nottingham 13:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
cad makies new low against $ but watch for follow thru as could bounce if none...personally just covered gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
heavy one and stops under fig.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
long cad 1.3125.

SA Bok 13:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Guys most brokers do the same on numbers and events .. find a new one thats been around a while ...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
MOF no action in Asian.....

they want to break 105?

SA Bok 13:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
SELL THE USD = 42 Billion and revised up November ...

ICT ML 13:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
usa monster...today is STOP running day

GENEVA FHR 13:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
42.8bio off we go

usa monster 13:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

hi
any views on cable after data
where it will go
tia

ICT ML 13:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JF...thanks, I have gbp pairs all on do or die RSI trend line supports right now....and not sure that they hold today..so FLEXIBILITY is todays plan...

Barcelona Tony 13:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Tu ferry .... yes I do

Barcelona Tony 13:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
us trade deficit expecte to be $-39bln

Tu ferry 13:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
@barcelona tony

do still hold your view that EUR/USD will come down under 1,20 medium term?

warsaw mach 13:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
data won't add anything new. we can see spike to 1.29 but then we go down. If 1.2770 is broken i would say that it was double top and we should go down

Barcelona Tony 13:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
guess $ will explode to the upside like 250/350 pips today... cover $ shorts

sarasota jf 13:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ict/ml - i hear now the gbp demand from asia was to roll into bonds we probably have done this now given the price action - possibly some correction can begin - but with all these large orders it takes a few days to get the real news and you need blind faith in the early stages

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 06:53 GMT February 13, 2004

When the first liners which have been leading the pack slows down and the second liners beome the leading sleigh dogs,that is a sign of rally without much liquidity before a good correction sets in on all fronts soon..Fwiw..



bc// If you don't mind, would like to seek your generous elaboration.

Sydney2 13:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Buy or sell or reversal?

Porto PJT 13:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
at 13,30 gmt

Barcelona Tony 13:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
in 25 mins

Barcelona JP 13:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Tony

Sí, és difícil. Molts encara no han descobert el Forex.

Waiting USD/JPY at 104,80.

Sydney2 13:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
when USA trade data come out?

Barcelona Tony 12:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP ...Morgan? LOL home un altre de bcn per aqui... encantat ... (sorry for speaking in mother language, but not easy to find a trader mate here) ... usd/jpy seems nice nice here huh?

Barcelona JP 12:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Madras

Waiting USD/JPY at 104.80

Barcelona JP 12:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
We'll know it at 13:30 GMT; in 33'

london ram 12:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico
thanks a lot

Barcelona JP 12:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
This afternoon"s US
trade data, expected to show a deterioration in December, will serve to remind
the market of the deficit funding issue and will also explain the US apathy
towards the weak dollar scenario.

london ram 12:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hello all ,did us data released or not yet,and what do you expect for eur/$ runing? thanks

Deauville Nico 12:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello ram,
well, I've got several elements that let me think euro is going to break 1.2850 today.
1: Greenspan words
2: the very strong 1.2790 support ( has resisted to 7 attacks since the rally)
3: for many analysts, euro/dol is very high but not too high, and the european economy depends on american economy. A weak dollar is favoring the economic growth , both sides.
4 : the twin deficit in the usa and the bad unemployement datas.
5: ECB won't move a finger till 1.30

Only good (very good) us datas could inverse the trend today IMO

May the trend be with you all.

Madras KR 12:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 12:51 GMT .Buy here.Excellent Risk/Reward.Stop at 105.15.GL.

Barcelona JP 12:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
International US trade over -40 should take EUR/USD to 1,2900 and GBP/USD to 1,9000.

Barcelona JP 12:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY seems dead

warsaw mach 12:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
traders on eur/$ has taken one week off after Greenspan testimony as there is no volatility.

Sydney bl 12:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius george 12:41
thanks

london ram 12:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico hello,and do you think also that we could reach 1.29 acoording to eur/$ at tuesday?..thanks

Vilnius george 12:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 12:36
just buy , buy, if it goes down buy one's more and take a pale beer.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
bought some eur/gbp at .6779 eventually.

Porto PJT 12:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Last big move on gbp and eur have preceded by a fast move other way, so be aware that could happen today too.The small ranges, like 67 pips on usd chf in 2 days are in huge contrast with is average daily that are 148 daily, from high to low, so like farmacia points a nice move can be expected.gl and gt to all.

GVI john 12:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2815…$/yen 105.35
DJIA +21 pts… 10-yr 4.04%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI...

Sydney bl 12:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hello everyone any comment for AUD/USD

Barcelona JP 12:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Closed my caddy short opened yesterday at 1,3210 for a 31 pips gain.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
and we should bear in mind that Jap repat. is coming soon.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nt, I have a feeling that this dlr/cad will play 1.3-1.35 for few more months.

Nottingham 12:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
CAD pop there on Canary Wharf news...will be change to bid structure...essentially means Brascan in with a shout...potential 1.5-2bn heading out of Canada into UK...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
1 more hr...

Nottingham 12:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
not sure about audnzd...has made lower daily low (just) and so far lower high, also lower peaks on shorter charts...however, it got to within a whisker of 50% retracement of big 1586/1080 move so due a breather...would like to see it stay about 1.12 today otherwise major threat of retest of lows imo...gl gt

Deauville Nico 12:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Welcome on board of the Eurodol compagny. We are going to pass through a turbulence zone localized above 1.2850 feets, so please, hang your belt, finish your cigarette and have your parachute ready.Tickets will not be refunded in case of crash. Thank you for your attention.

london ram 12:25 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hello hk,what,s your opinion in eur/$ going for the rest of the day ..thanks

melbourne farmacia 12:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 12:12 GMT February 13, 2004
We read it the first time. gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
wait for a small dip to buy eur/gbp retracement.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd is interesting here.
many different smas are above and below this 1.1250 line.

in the daily, weekly and monthly chart.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
btw, my first option trade on cad is a green one.
it cuts this afternoon.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
nt// I have an idea in my mind right now...

Did someone lift up gbp/jpy high and then, flush it down to crash BOJ?....

I think from the momentum view, this is quite probable.

Nottingham 12:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:09

Expect so as it made hard work of getting over it this week...gap to fill on intraday to 7923 but will have its work cut out to do it prior to data imo...after the release it will be slave to the figs so may not get filled if US surprises...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, seems someone sells aud sharp when we entered US session.....

hong kong nt 12:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab -- gbp's triangle upside break obj at 1.9100, not sure if gbp can finish this last 1% gain...

Gold Coast martin 12:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AS I HAVE STATED BEFORE AUD WILL RETRACE TO .7850 BY THE END OF NEW YORK TRADING TODAY

melbourne farmacia 12:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Waiting to see if Aud/usd bounces of 0.7895 ...

Bris TW 12:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 12:04 GMT
Yes the days of freak ranges 99% of the time occur when Fundamental events have had an impact on the market. Other than terrorist events most others can be planned for.

Nottingham 12:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 11:50 GMT:

imo that particluar system only useful when daily range is over extended...a modal range might work better there...one or two days of freak ranges will not affect an underlying average much so its open to inaccuracy and tops/bottoms often have large daily ranges so it may be worth having a primary system to identify potential exhaustions on a daily chart basis and then try to calculate average ranges during those time periods...just my thoughts, good luck with it!!!

Bris TW 11:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I am however in the process of developing the average pip movement on a daily basis to give a more precise forcast which will also include effects of Fundamental data on a particular day.

AlexVA Dennis 11:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Another variable is of course the selection of "open" and "close" time period. eg Asian, European of North American market time frame.

Bris TW 11:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EG: The difference is these figures are only a few pips from mine. A simple fact of this is the difference in Market Feeds. The same feeds will bring the same results time after time.
:... 0.7756 ... // 0.7882

brisbane sunstate 11:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 11:39
ok thanks

Bris TW 11:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The source is from opening, closing levels, high/lows and fibonacci

brisbane sunstate 11:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 11:30 GMT
you should acknowledge the source jmo

hk ab 11:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Vilnius george 11:09 GMT February 13, 2004

Thanks

nt// I am sorry,my computer sucks very bad today. and I may post delayed.

For those levels, what I think we need to watch is the canon hidden.

Think aud and nzd FM are selling the rumour, buy the fact and allow the aud and nzd to fly, however, my view is the high value will crash the econ. by no doubt.

HK once has a high dollar together with USD, then, property bubble bursts and then, the dlr also devalued.

cycles are cycles maybe some bigger players want to see some longer term high for both pairs first before next move.

GL and GT

Nottingham 11:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
warsaw mach 11:27 GMT

will take a look thanks...anything you've got would be appreciated...email is [email protected]

warsaw mach 11:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EURPLN RSI at 65 - if broken we can see massive drop.

Bris TW 11:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD

R4 .8048
R3 .8000
R2 .7985
R1 .7925

.7927

S1 .7877
S2 .7858
S3 .7858
S4 .7836

Bris TW 11:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
US/CHF

R4 1.2429
R3 1.2397
R2 1.2369
R1 1.2338

1.2307

S1 1.2273
S2 1.2263
S3 1.2213
S4 1.2164

Melbourne Qindex 11:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:55 GMT February 13, 2004
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 0.7756 ... // 0.7882 - 0.7914 - 0.7945 // ... 0.8008 ...

warsaw mach 11:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
pls check www.tms.com.pl. i can give you info from reuters but only for 2004

hong kong nt 11:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ab -- 1.29 EUR, 1.22 CHF, 1.90 GBP, 0.80 AUD, 0.71 NZD maybe good level for reversal

Nottingham 11:25 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
warsaw mach 11:24:

Maybe u can help me...i need high low and close data for eurpln and usdpln going back at least a year...do u know of any website where i can download this?

Bris TW 11:25 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
US/CAD

R4 1.3283
R3 1.3260
R2 1.3234
R1 1.3200

1.3163

S1 1.3144
S2 1.3123
S3 1.3078
S4 1.3045

warsaw mach 11:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
that could be an intervention. it's cheeper to do it at 1.2820 that at 1.29 (as per BoJ information from yesterday)

Bris TW 11:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD

R4 1.9043
R3 1.9010
R2 1.8970
R1 1.8945

1.8924

S1 1.8883
S2 1.8845
S3 1.8806
S4 1.8767

warsaw sewl 11:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eurusd now @ 1,2822 / 1,2824 us seleeeerrrrr

Bris TW 11:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD
R4 1.2910
R3 1.2897
R2 1.2845
R1 1.2835

1.2827

S1 1.2786
S2 1.2750
S3 1.2725
S4 1.2695

Sofia VKD 11:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Statement from Microsoft Regarding Illegal Posting of Windows Source Code

REDMOND, Wash., Feb. 12, 2004 -- On Thursday, Microsoft became aware that portions of the Microsoft Windows 2000 and Windows NT 4.0 source code were illegally made available on the Internet. It’s illegal for third parties to post Microsoft source code, and we take such activity very seriously.

We are currently investigating these postings and are working with the appropriate law-enforcement authorities.

At this point it does not appear that this is the result of any breach of Microsoft’s corporate network or internal security.

At this time there is no known impact on customers. We will continue to monitor the situation.

Nottingham 11:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 11:09 GMT:

Since Wednesday, everyone and their taxi driver have been long and will be concerned by lack of follow thru...is goes below 1.2775 on US data then I think we will see a sharp run lower as people get caught long...however, while it's still up here traders are willing to sit it out...a 75-100 pip move from current levels will happen today imo and 1.2845/50 and 1.2775 will be the barriers...gl gt

Bris TW 11:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 11:09 GMT
LOL..IMO

Vilnius george 11:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
VE 11:09 GMT
I guess we have the same sore of news lol

Vilnius george 11:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 11:05
EZ Q4 GDP Rises 0.3% Q/Q, Below Exp

VE 11:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EZ Q4 GDP rises 0.3%Q/Q Below Exp

Gold Coast martin 11:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/ will retrace to 1265o by the end of trading today according to my computer calculations

hk ab 0.66 11:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
anyone got eur data?

hk ab 0.66 11:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
.8 prints tonight, JIMVHO.

but what develops afterwards is another story.

Gold Coast martin 10:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD trying to break 7930 barrier with no luck.Should retrace back to 7875 by end of new york trading today.

Gen dk 10:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.88 10:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
but from last week experience, the data should not be too bad, otherwise, the MOF should have pushed the pair a bit higher first.

hk ab 0.88 10:44 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD and NZD are flying without any worries as the FM just eat all their words along the trips.

hk ab 0.88 10:44 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
the USD still cannot benefit from a 25% devaluation.......
maybe a more effective way is to rate hike to stop the big spender to continue to spend......

tonight fig. above 40 can send the eur above the 1.3 sky.

hk ab 0.88 10:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
my two eurchf trailed at 1.5790 now flat on this pair. The computer has some problem today.

HK [email protected] 10:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas DP 10:06

I made a little fibonacica indeed 6.7 area for silver looks little exhaustive, a parallel stiffy for gold shows to the break through the 61.8% Ret. of [430.5-HI-394-LO] which is 416.56 and the lower daily channel line currently at 416 .

But for the gold chances have increased for a break through that Res. as an extended congestion period at this level took already place.

I think that if you look at short-time charts you see sudden raids to crash gold prices. Someone by this time must be too worried.

Barcelona JP 10:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thank you to all.

I keep my caddy short at 1,321.
S/L 1,3265
T/ 1,3070

Dallas GEP 10:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
TJ, you were quicker than me. I was merely following your lead!!!! You were thinking too loud!!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 10:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Well AB, as you know I think usd/cad has been on the brink med. term of dumping 150-200 pips. This data IMO no doubt will move it. I think you could play it short from here with a 1.3170 stop OR you could try LONG from 1.3100/20 area. I am trying to decide which way myself OF whether or not to play it BOTH ways.

GA TJ 10:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP, My only contribution in the last 48 hours and you step on it....like a raw nerve. :)

hk ab 0.88 10:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP are u interested on the long side?

Dallas GEP 10:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmmmm.....RE: USD/CAD might be able to pick up some cheap USD/CAD close to fig if data is really good.

Dallas GEP 10:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
BD, no one buys usd/jpy for quick profit!!!! Might as well have a fixed exchange rate on it which do doubt the Japenese would LOVE. You buy it when no other possies look worth taking like earlier today when I took it!!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 10:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
How's that for thinking alike!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 10:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Courtesy IFR:
Candian data

12Feb 13:30 New Auto Sales
13Feb 13:30 Trade Balance
13Feb 13:30 Exports
13Feb 13:30 Imports
13Feb 13:30 Mfg Shipments
13Feb 13:30 Inventories (%)
13Feb 13:30 Unfilled Orders
13Feb 13:30 New Orders
13Feb 13:30 Invent/Shipments

nyc beyonding_destiny 10:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
this dlr/yen is lifeless, anyone buys it for quick profit?

GA TJ 10:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JP

Your CAD news

13Feb 13:30 CAD Trade Balance $blns
13Feb 13:30 CAD Exports
13Feb 13:30 CAD Imports
13Feb 13:30 CAD Mfg Shipments (%)
13Feb 13:30 CAD Inventories (%)
13Feb 13:30 CAD Unfilled Orders (%)
13Feb 13:30 CAD New Orders (%)
13Feb 13:30 CAD Invent/Shipments

Chambery FR JFB 10:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Going long GBP @ 1.8915 traded s/l @1.8890 for a few pips b4 13:30 news :-)

Nottingham 10:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Canadian trade figs due today...expected to show improvement but don't hold me to that as I'm yet to get consensus est.

WASH DC SRQ 10:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ikabod_25
ok Mister elliott waves.gl

Dallas GEP 10:06 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Yes JP. I beleive @ 13:30 we have CADDY news

Kaunas DP 10:06 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 09:52 GMT
correct and to me as of now it looks like 2x top at 6.7
todays close will be driven by USD, gold not silver itself - IMO

Dallas GEP 10:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JP I concurr with Notty on USD/CAD levels (LOW). You may wish to take profit on short caddy fairly soon or run a trailing stop

Barcelona JP 10:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

Gep, I'm not at home and I do no remember if there are Caddy news today. Are there?

ikabod_25 10:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
imho i expect eurusd to be minimum 1.4310 and maximum 1.5407 by mid of next month hoever the best entry point would be after the jan 12 high gets violated. gt

hk ab 0.88 10:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
take the profit from the long @ 1.5760 at 1.5796
keeping 1.5750 and 1.5738 longs.

Nottingham 10:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:39

Yep thats right 1.3140/45...sorry GEP, trying to juggle a few things while its quiet

For those playing %rate diffs take a look at usdzar...not without its political risk but recent price action (bounce then failure) is, so far, mirror image of what took place last spring/summer - on top of the yield we could see 5.5 from this

gl gt

HK [email protected] 10:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Talking about tamed inflation, I bet that people world wide may see for their own eyes prices of many products rising by 2 figure percentage rates.

Ok! what will happen if the Fed. for example will decide to hike because of excess devaluation in the $$$ or inflation.
I think that will result in additional $$$ drop. This year anyway $$$ has the potential to drop to 1.56 Euro.

Miami OMIL 09:58 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
BTW I forgot to mention that a flag has formed on the 1hr chart. Something else to think about but all this technicall talk won't mean a thing if the market reacts to the news strongly IMHO.

hk ab 0.88 09:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
jf, it looks really a bit odd as we expected the pair eur/chf to run down but eventually it made new high.

hk ab 0.88 09:54 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
may take profit at 1.5795 if it fail to attack 3 times.

HK [email protected] 09:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
read 6.4 not 8.4

HK [email protected] 09:52 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
In principle 8.4 may appear during the trade, but a close today at 6.4 or below may not be too encouraging.

Brisbane L 09:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
After a couple of days of silence, ECB"S MERSCH raised his own concerns over f/x mkt volatility explaining that it is the magnitude of recent moves rather than the actual Eur/Dlr that the ECB is worried about at present. Speaking to AFP newswire yest he said ccy moves are one of the risks which can affect the ECB"s outlook for a gradual economic recovery, while reiterating that the G7 is committed to monitoring f/x mkts "closely" and cooperating as appropriate. Separately, head of Germany"s DIW institute ZIMMERMAN says its 2004 GDP f/c of 1.4% if Eur/Dlr exceeds 1.3500 on a l/t basis,

Kaunas DP 09:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 09:39 GMT
dont u think we still need to see 6.4 test before as long as it was strong resistance and now should act as support
GL

Barcelona JP 09:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Going down to 1,3070?

Barcelona JP 09:44 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!!

My short Caddy yesterday at 1,3210 is still alive. Great!!

saloniko 2004 nk 09:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Euro always on Friday 13 goes higher..

I t/p my long USD/CHF ....(sniff!!)


and always 13 is my Lacky numper...will buy again 1.2222-1.1888 if (seen)

Have a nice day...!

nk

Dallas GEP 09:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Notty, I assume you mean 1.3140???

HK [email protected] 09:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
HI to all !

I suggest you may have a look at daily Silver chart.
A break-up on daily flag is something really of significance.
That commodity is like gearing up for a move above 7$/Oz., may serve as a clue to other related instruments.

GL/GT to all

Nottingham 09:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
CAD really winning on the crosses too but usdcad should hold ranges pre data all the same...so expect 1.3440/45 no lower...gl gt

Miami OMIL 09:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Interesting GEP I will buy that!! LOL
Boring session but maybe the US data will put a spark on the eur/usd pair to break either way. Right now technically eur/usd should short yesterday’s fib retracement are still valid. With supports in the same place 1.2780-90, 1.2750, 1.2680-90 and finally the last bottom formed at 1.2650. The resistance is well known by now at 1.2850 if that is taken then 1.2900 levels will be met. That is the level I see a lot of trouble cracking IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Dallas GEP 09:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
NO JFB, I took it as a joke as well. I was just in one of my philosophical moods!!! LOL

hk ab 0.88 09:27 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, will you like to long dlr/cad at your previous mentioned target, I have some interest on the 1.3150 with a tight SAR underneath.

Chambery FR JFB 09:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:20 GMT February 13, 2004
Sorry GEP it was just a joke... was opening a chart with USD/CAD, EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD right now :-) You certainly will make the 21st century more profitable for many(including me!) than any previous one :-) Thanx for sharing!

hk ab 0.88 09:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
give me cheaper aud/nzd please under 1.1250.

hk ab 0.88 09:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf potentially stops at the 1.61-1.62 area.

Gold Coast martin 09:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD looks like it will retrace back to .7920 and if no support it will fall back further to 7875.

Dallas GEP 09:20 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Nope just the opposite JFB, as we rely and learn from each other, comprehension accelerates expotentially, For example, the technological advancement during the 20th century far surpasses all of recorded history prior to that. WHY???? Well IMO it is because the ability to share ideas with each other beacame so much better in the 20th century. You take someone's idea and you make it BETTER but in order to do that you have to become AWARE of what that idea was.

Brisbane L 09:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
BC notice you post below , do I detect in it we may be getting close to the Bottom for now on the USD .

Chambery FR JFB 09:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:01 GMT February 13, 2004
Thx... so your advise is more to read your comments rather than try to figure it out myself right?... lol

Ga Lee 09:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Good analogy there GEP, seems gbp/cad also plays well with usd/cad imo...on some occasions anyway :-)

Dallas GEP 09:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
JFB, It's a matter of knowing the inter-relationships of the pairs and SPECIFICALLY at any point in time which pair appears to be leading the charge so to speak in regards to the other pairs.

For example: As far as USD/CAD goes, Eur/Cad was the leading indicator as to where USD/CAD would go so as it was shorting significantly it was having a direct effect on USD/cAD. When eur/cad stopped moving and was at support, that put the brakes on usd/cad as well.

The most difficult part is the relationships CHANGE as far as which one leads and which one follows and what SIDE of the pair has more effect at the time.

Brisbane L 08:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin Hi, well what i am looking for today, going to pick some up under 78 if possible and sell if we get to 80 however there is said to be an option at 7950 being protected , but if its anything like the one at 79 it will be a pushover so we could see it reaching the top today, along with the Euro 129. Good luck

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 08:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone. is Raden Mas in the house?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 08:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Chamb...
appreciate the insight.gl and GT to you too.
TIA:-)

Chambery FR JFB 08:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 08:45 GMT February 13, 2004
Just imvho : the 200 EMA (30 min) is @1.2338, and then a descending t/l @1.2357 and an ascending t/l @1.2339... so I'll wait a little more... If they break, which should coincide roughly with EUR breaking the 1.2790 barrier, you'll be a few pips ahead of many :-) GT

Gold Coast martin 08:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I would appreciate the short term movement comments you care to make on the $AUD/USD.

Chambery FR JFB 08:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico 08:38 GMT February 13, 2004
Hi GEP : a (not that simple) question. I am always surprised how you (among a few others) can associate the timing of a cross to the major...deducting that a cross moves a major or vice versa... Is it "only" a chronologyy matter, or is there more in depth reasons? TIA

Ldn Mvs 08:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Also worth noting re. CAD - O/N we retraced exactly 50% of the pre-Greenspan drop to 1.3232 - a much awaited correction & now a grt place to leave stop for those going short tdy+

Dallas GEP 08:48 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Cable exhibited the delphi effect where it longed significantly against a declining MACD and THEN went short.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 08:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
i am going long usdchf now.
anyone with me
TIA:-)

Chambery FR JFB 08:45 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico 08:38 GMT February 13, 2004
Thx... check your mail :-)

Dallas GEP 08:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CAD going back short so I closed USD/CAD long at BE

Deauville Nico 08:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Ok , no problem, it's [email protected]

Deauville Nico 08:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I think euro is good to buy as long as 1.2790 holds and this level won't break before Us datas IMO. Market always needs to eat news, events and comments. And those datas will be the pretext to get higher if there are worst than expected.

Chambery FR JFB 08:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004
Forgot... do you mind if I ask for your e-mail to Jay? Just a simple question... :-) TIA

Ldn Mvs 08:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Also, don't 4get we hv trade data tdy , both at 13.30GMT from both USA & Canada: Canadian surplus forecast to improve from 4.3 bn CAD to 4.6 bn CAD for Dec., whereas the US deficit forecast to deteriorate from -38 bn US$ to -39.8 bn US$......yet another reason to sell USD/CAD rallies tdy - gd luck+

Chambery FR JFB 08:33 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004
For once I'm right about s'thing on this forum... lol

Dallas GEP 08:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 1.3166 (ASK)

Dallas GEP 08:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
LONG caddy 1.3162 with tight stop NOIW

Deauville Nico 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 08:19 GMT February 13, 2004

Riiiigt, that's right! 13:30 GMT! sorry about that.
(yes, Normandie)

Alicante RTN 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I might be wet, but believe the breakdown of supports in usdcad will translate into a new attempt higher in both cable and eurusd.

Kaunas DP 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
any ideas re AUD/USD - shall we wait 0.8print or can start shorting right now - TIA

trailing beast short from 1,8962

Ldn Mvs 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Watch CAD; AUD; NZD seem to be picking up steam here - cud well be precursor for general US$ weakness tdy, as they hv many times in the past - time to hop on the bandwagon? Hring gd bids Eur 1.2800 area now

Lsdn 08:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Euro under pressure in morning session, slipping to 1.2803 from 1.2829 in Asian trade. Failure to take 1.29 level suggests mkt overbought, says DrKW, sees possible break of Thu's 1.2785 low on pre-weekend pft-taking. Adds mkt looking to US deficit numbers, USD to get short-term boost if data comes in below $40B expectations. Due 1330 GMT. reuters

Dallas GEP 08:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Closed USD/CAD @ 1.3180 for +40. Think euro/usd WILL break DOWN thru 1.2790 and dollar will rebound PLUS usd/cad on support anyway. CADDY MAY short so more but can't get greedy

Gold Coast martin 08:22 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the information NOTTINGHAM.It was very analytical and direct.Much appreciated

Chambery FR JFB 08:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Deauville Nico 07:30 GMT February 13, 2004
Hi Nico :-) think you definitely need to adjust your watch : numbers are out at 13:30 gmt :-) GL GT (btw, are you in Deauville, France?)

Dallas GEP 08:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trailing stop now @ 1.3185. Eur/CAD went short a BUNCH.

hk ab 0.88 08:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd limit at 1.1250 almost hit.

Dallas GEP 08:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trailing stop on CADDY short now @ 1.3195

Watch EURO, break below 1.2790 is SIGNIFICANT

hk ab 0.88 08:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
the eur/chf is so cool now, wonder how high it can go.

long 1.5760 and added 1.5750.

Dallas GEP 08:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY still laboring (long from 105.38)

Dallas GEP 08:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
CADDY short from 1.3220 now has trailing stop @ 1.3200

MONACO OGA 08:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 13/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2810), same as Thursday opening. As expected, the pair spent the day consolidating inside 1,2790-1,2840. Mr Greenspan talked again but made no specific adjustment to his Wednesday's speech that triggered a USD sell off. For today, ahead of a long week end, we favour a break of 1,2840 and a test of critical 1,2900 resistance. A weekly close above 1,2900 would be very bullish. If 1,2900 taken, many stops could trigger a 500 pips run to 1,3400.
Our medium target remains at 1,3500.

Data out today:
EZ GDP flash Q4 expected 0,4% 11.00 GMT
US international trade December expected -40Bio 13.30 GMT
CA trade balance December expected 4,5Bio 13.30 GMT
US Michigan preliminary Feb expected 103,30 14.45 GMT

Gold around 412,50 , with WTI March at 33,90.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 105,35) still supported by the BOJ, purchasing round 2 Bio USD to counter some coupon and treasury payments . We still like to sell upticks (105,50/60) for a retest and break of 105,30 as we cannot see how the japanese authorities can keep the pair from falling below 100 in the medium term. A sharp move is expected at one point.
EUR/JPY (currently 135,00) following EUR/USD price action. Still looking to challenge previous highs at 135,50 (next one being 137,50).

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8930) printed a new 11 years high earlier today above 1,8970. Supports for the day around 1,8870 then 1,8820. 1,90 target is almost done, next big level to watch 1,93.
EURGBP (0,6765). We still favour the downside for the medium term with a lower bearish channel barrier around 0,6750, today we'll sell 0,6790 if seen for a 0,6750-60 target.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Nottingham 07:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin:

Within euro close to all time highs there is a real risk of a break to the upside, prompting further $ weakness...aud would no doubt follow euro and quick likely outperform it...so there may be further to go before any daily correction...one thing to remember is that its Friday and that we are going to have to trade into this week's ranges next week...so you will see good pullback from today's closes if they are at or near week highs...the pullbacks won't necessarily come on Monday or even Tuesday as the currencies have all week to fill the ranges, but it is likely that failure to trade in the range early on in the week points to a sharpish decline mid to late week as the pairs then head into previous week ranges...this creates poor sentiment and could be the start of something bigger so often ranges are filled Monday 9 out of 10 times...gl gt

Gold Coast martin 07:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
just getting frustrated in relation to the current rapid rise of the australian against the usd.Is the likelihood of a pullback likely in the short term and how much of a retracement will there be?I am just getting confused every day reading conflicting reports.Your comment will be appreciated.

Melbourne Qindex 07:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:45 GMT February 13, 2004
EUR/USD : the critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.2780. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2719 // 1.2750 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2902 // 1.2932.


... 1.2618 ... 1.2719 // 1.2750 - 1.2780* - 1.2811 - 1.2841 - 1.2872 - 1.2902 // 1.2932 ...

Deauville Nico 07:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
Euro opens in the green today and may hit a new monthly high. The 1.2800 area hold after the rally, confirming that the trend is clearly up on the long term. I suggest to buy on the hourly 50 ema. Stop 1.2785. Watch out for statistics (around 15:30 GMT)that could boost the trend if badly surprising

London London 07:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Found it this is it:-

USD/JPY may have again been in a straitjacket during Asian hours but the pressure is building up on the BoJ who have again supported the pairing around the 105.30 level with heavy volumes reported. Much of the selling today has been linked to coupon payments and redemption of US Treasuries - up to $2yards allegedly. Weekly MoF data also showed net inflows into Tokyo from foreign accounts. Both the FT & WSJ have reports on the Chinese authorities preparing the groundwork for a possible yuan revaluation although nothing is imminent. The Evening NKS reported that the Japanese govt sold the BoJ about Y10tln worth of US Treasuries through to 10-Feb to finance intervention.

MMS

London London 07:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Did quite catch the whole story but on CNBCeurpe squawkbox they were saying something about the BOJ having it work cut out today due to Coupon expiring and people repatriating Yen later today would cause a rally in the yen , does anyone understand that.

Ldn 07:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Wlith the view that the Liberal Party will not get back in Power what affect will this have on the Australian Dollar , bearing in mind financial markets do not like the uncertain especially after years of a stable government which have put the economy on the mend. . BC what would the chiinese ladies you mentioned the other day think about that .

HK 8888 07:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Agreed.
Howard, for the first time in years needs to pay attention to the efforts of the opposition leader. Latham skinned him on the politicians super issue. Agree as well, howard will not be returned to govt this time around, regardless of the timing of the election.

Melbourne Qindex 07:17 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : ... // 1.8907 - 1.8922 - 1.8937 - 1.8953 - 1.8968 // ...

Adelaide albbar 07:13 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia
May your political insights be as good as your technical analysis!

Agree that an election announcement would be followed by an election within weeks as is the custom in Oz. But although Johnnie seems a bit rattled by his new opposition I don't think he'll call an election before mid year hoping that Latham will hang himself in rhetoric.

SA Bok 07:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Does this GBP beast want to see 1.9000 print ? TIA

Ldn 07:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc me again, your saying the Euro was the leader of the pack and now passing it over to the GBP Aud kiwi .. meaning we are now getting close to a reverse. I was talking to my broker today he is Chinese gentleman and was saying he is expecting the Aussie dollar once it reaches the desired 80 area many in long positions from way back will take profits kicking it down some 300 pts .

shanghai bc 07:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX -- Good afternoon..Hope the summer is treating you well..Good trades and forecasts..

melbourne farmacia 07:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 05:29 GMT February 13, 2004
As Qindex said Howards under pressure, if he called an election on monday, i would say no more than 5 weeks to the polls. In regards to the aud dollar , not much. As i posted last year, Howard will be dumped this year IMO.

Adelaide albbar 06:23 GMT February 13, 2004
Ok, yeah 41 in melb tomorrow.

Euro is under pressure from Eur/Gbp ( read BC's post from last week )
Gbp/Usd - my current cycle from base 1.6565 completes at 1.9053, i can't see any signs of retracements as yet. At this stage i would be sitting on the fence if you have no open trades. Maybe try selling under 1.8880 if you think something has to give. Cable might take a break if euro can overcome 1.2850 - 1.2900. I still see at least 200 +odd pip range today on gbp. GT

Adelaide albbar 06:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 06:53 GMT

Thank you, as always much appreciated that you share your insights and assist us to see our way clear!

Kaunas DP 06:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
cable looks shortish to me

Melbourne Qindex 06:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 06:53 GMT - Good Afternoon!

shanghai bc 06:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   

When the first liners which have been leading the pack slows down and the second liners beome the leading sleigh dogs,that is a sign of rally without much liquidity before a good correction sets in on all fronts soon..Fwiw..

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Adelaide albbar 06:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Cad also sitting on the fence!

SA Bok 06:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Guys it seems EUR will become the lagger on back of lower interest rate to GBP.. AUD..NZD ??

Thoughts ... TIA

London London 06:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex hope so because its been painful today in Asia thanks

SA Bok 06:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Joburg cd 06:19 - My Friend sell USD .. and keep till we see a change or ECB or Mr G or Mr.Snow says anything for the USD ...

Now that I have said this they will ... GL all

Melbourne Qindex 06:25 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
London London 06:04 GMT - I am expecting some good action in New York session.

Adelaide albbar 06:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:41 GMT February 13, 2004

Sorry, been away from screen, yes Adelaide SA. Very hot and more to come, 43 tomorrow.

Re cable, could the latest hike have been a taking out of stops and we might see some retracement as eur still not following?

Joburg cd 06:19 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Bok good selling opportunity if the eur pulls back... or... is it the leading signal for the day?

SA Bok 06:16 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Good Day all - May I ask who is buy the Cable .. jumping UP TIA ...

London London 06:04 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex do you see a volitile day today
my last question

Melbourne Qindex 05:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
London London 05:55 GMT - AUD/USD : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is the short term target.

London London 05:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex so you see it pullback from there to the lower levels you show.

Melbourne Qindex 05:53 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
London London 05:51 GMT - Basically AUD/USD has reached my weekly target.

London London 05:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Qindex is your view on the Aud Bearish for today ?? notice on one of you post

Ldn 05:44 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
thanks for your view Qindex

Melbourne Qindex 05:37 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 05:29 GMT - I guess he is under pressure and would like to have the election as late as possible. Anyway AUD/USD would follow the general direction of EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

Melbourne Qindex 05:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is trading at the extreme end and it may pullback and test the barrier at 0.7827 // 0.7875.

Melbourne Qindex 05:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:28 GMT February 8, 2004
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 0.7779. The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 0.7683 - 0.7779 initially. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 0.7635 // 0.7683 and the mid-point reference is 0.7659. The upper barrier is located at 0.7827 // 0.7875 and the mid-point reference is 0.7851. The market rhythm is represented by 48 pips (k=0.004798) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.7635 - 0.7875. (Suggestion : maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7779)


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 0.7635 // 0.7683, 0.7731, 0.7779, 0.7827 // 0.7875, 0.7923 ...

Ldn 05:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne farmacia Melbourne Qindex

What would happen on Monday morning if the Prime Minister John Howard said he was setting a date for an election mid year ?? appreciate you views on this or any other Person living in Aus

Melbourne Qindex 05:23 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:22 GMT February 13, 2004
EUR/GBP : The lower barrier of my daily cycle is expected at 0.6714 // 0.6730 and the upper barrier is located at 0.6792 // 0.6808.


... 0.6699, 0.6714 // 0.6730 - (0.6745) - 0.6761 - 0.6776 - 0.6792 // 0.6808.

phils VL 05:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - extended constriction of bollingers on the 1 & 2 hr charts will lead to classic panic selling or buying in the europ session, as mkt moves out of the comfort zone....

downside visit = test of 1.2750/60, if broken then a test about 100 pips lower ard 1.2650, in NY session

upside visit = test of 1.2845, if broken then test 1.2900 high, which shud contain up moves in the near future.

I'm short as said earlier with s/l abv 1.2855.

GL

Saihat 05:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
USDCHF, GBPUSD
for test only

sell at 1.2360 ....stop at 1.2375

buy at 1.8850 .... stop at 1.8830

Melbourne Qindex 05:12 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Lndn . 05:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Take profit on GBP/USD longs, says Robert Sinche, Citibank's head of global currency strategy, in research report; with GBP/USD having exceeded its target of 1.8900 in just 2 weeks since Citibank went long GBP/USD at 1.8090, it has opted to close position and take profit at 1.8915. U.S. bank now neutral on pair, which last at 1.8920.

AFT

beijing road 05:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia : great ! !!

Melbourne Qindex 04:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 04:42 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:17 GMT February 13, 2004
AUD/USD : A projected resistant level has been established at 0.7908 - 0.7917.

Alb 04:40 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD testing resistance around 0.7915 but daily technical studies now well overbought. DJ.

London 04:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
ECB expected to mull intervention if EUR/USD rises well beyond 1.30 in future, writes NikkoCitigroup. Says ECB highly likely to intervene alone before requesting joint aid.

London 04:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
WSJ today speculates that domestic considerations may prompt China to revalue. Cash and private deposits surged 20% last year, leading to a sharp rise in lending and a surge in Dec of previously dormant inflation; prompting one economist from a US Investment House to suggest that the "the monetary authorities are losing control of the economy

Ldn 04:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
China Animal Import Ban Due To Foot & Mouth Disease Fear

along with bird flu what next

MTL Cain 04:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Yea, I agree. It's 50/50 from my sig. Hard to tell. Well, wanted to grab some for a nice weeknd. Cross finger...

btw, anybody who's using Gen dk's sig? How do you find it?

a 04:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
sure mate, just kidding, really dificult to trade, gl & gt.

Kamensk Andy 04:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
a 03:56 GMT February 13, 2004
lol, just not sure about euro movements today - from my point of view - 50/50 up and down :) that's why...and friday 13 - may just add surprises today. GL.

a 03:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy 03:49 ????when you leave bed you put your right foot first, otherwise you dont leave home?fullmoon days you dont trade also?lol

Perth 03:56 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Home loans down again
New housing loans have fallen for a third consecutive month, providing further evidence that rising mortgage rates are starting to bite.
AFR

Kamensk Andy 03:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Today is FRIDAY 13....Not going to trade today at all :)
Good Luck to those who brave enough...

phils VL 03:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne farmacia 2.03 gmt

eur/usd - gud a.m. I see this pair as profitable for range trading, with bias to short on rallies particularly frm the 1.2815-1.2845 area aiming at 1.2790 or below. S/l also is a no brainer if we target well abv 1.2855 which provides gud r/r .

On a bigger picture, when the mkt trades below 1.2650, itwill signal me to overweight on shorts as this wud mean sharper downside risks to the 1.24 -1.2350 lvls.

I was short at 1.2820 y/day and TP at 1.2796. Shorted again at 1.2820 this morning, and may add at the lvls indicated above.

GT GL

hk ab 0.88 03:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
got in aud/nzd new long at 1.1280

Ldn 02:55 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Beijing and US to hold talks on renminbi


LiNK

China has agreed to receive a delegation of US Treasury officials within weeks to discuss how Beijing might inject flexibility into its rigid exchange rate system. The meeting comes as speculation over the future of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, intensifies.


Caribbean! Rafe... 02:50 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I'm off too tired to do any more work see you guys tomorrow and have a great weekend all.


EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2822 1.2837 1.2856 1.2871 1.2886 1.2905 1.2935
LOWER BANDS 1.2792 1.2777 1.2758 1.2743 1.2728 1.2709 1.2679

ldn 02:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
34 AUD/USD: Profit Taking Sets In Ahead Of Weekend

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:49 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
QF//thanks very much.

Calabash TarHeel 02:47 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Mabwe woem ahass turnrfnnf gig maglim bopmrs outy yoo

Nassau QF (newb) 02:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Converting 850.00 Australian Dollars to
U.S. Dollars will yield
660.96 U.S. Dollars.
(Derived rate = 0.7776)

Rate on my charts is 0.7882

melbourne farmacia 02:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Adelaide albbar 02:11 GMT February 13, 2004
Adelaide South Aus ?

melbourne farmacia 02:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Adelaide albbar 02:11 GMT February 13, 2004
We need a few more hours to see what pans out. Agree regarding s & r levels on euro / cad.

Pecs Andras 02:10 GMT February 13, 2004
Evening mate, After such a small range thursday, i expect cable to move 200 + pips from l/h. 1.8880 still holding up and would buy around level if indicators suggest. But with euro's early sell signal, cable could follow. Because i'm still holding longs from 1.8100 area, i've let slip my daily readings and only looking for possible retracement signals etc. Will be happy around 1.9053 to cover and a quick sell. gt

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:35 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
QF.. 669 USD for 850 aud dollars? forgive me i have had a bad day brain is too fizzled to use it for now. just help me out.

TIA.

Gen dk 02:29 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nassau QF (newb) 02:28 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, it's $660.96 according to Royal Bank of Canada
and $669.38 according to Yahoo finance.

http://www.rbcroyalbank.com/cgi-bin/travel/fxconvert.pl
http://finance.yahoo.com/m3?u

MTL Cain 02:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Evening guys,

Is it a good time to short Euro at 1.2801 right now? My sig is kinda confusing.

Thx for input

Ldn 02:24 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Pulls Back To 0.7880/85, Asian Names Selling

Ldn 02:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Quite a bit of repatriation interest is seen in the wings with roughly US$20 bln in coupon payments scheduled for Tuesday of which some US$8-9 bln are said to be going to
Japanese investors. Bond principal will continue to be re-invested but coupons likely brought back if only because the fiscal year-end is nigh. Expectations of a lower USD are also a major factor. BoJ intervention to support USD/JPY above 105.00 has been aggressive so far. However, in the face of these fresh flows, the job will be very difficult. Importer settlements ahead of the long U.S.weekend and on the 15th falling on a Sunday helped to support USD/JPY in Asia
today. That said, Japanese exporters have large offers above 105.50 stretching up to 105.80 and beyond, effectively capping the upside. Weak longs have some stops above 105.80 mixed in. Japanese exporter sales also helped cap other crosses

rts

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Can someone kindly tell me what 850 australian dollars is in US dollars? the buying selling bank rate on the local market... not the spot fx like what we got.

TIA.

Ldn 02:14 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Morgan Stanley writes there's still scope for USD/JPY to squeeze lower, to 101-102 area

Adelaide albbar 02:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:03
Tks and good warning sign, but appears to me that cad is bouncing off resistance at 3220/30 what was previous fairly strong support and eur appears to be bouncing off 80/90 support. Your signal maybe for the eur session?
GT and GL

Pecs Andras 02:10 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Morning Paul
What is your take on cable for this Friday? (Its the 13th!)

melbourne farmacia 02:03 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
This maybe a bit early, but euro has given a sell signal, cad also a buy signal, both based on hourly charts. GT

Gen dk 02:02 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 02:01 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Risk As Tide Turns In High-Yield Currencies

AP) Bloody accident is looming large in global bond and currency markets. For more than a year now, investors have made easy money by borrowing U.S. dollars, Swiss francs or yen on the cheap to buy debt and other assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, the Swedish krona and even the euro. But now they'd better watch out. Analysts say this strategy, best known as "carry trade," has led to a bubble that looks ripe to burst.
There are good reasons for concern. For one, currency strength is starting to slow growth in economies such as Sweden, Canada and the euro zone, and central banks are starting to cut rates to spur activity. The Riksbank may cut rates from 2.75% as soon as Friday; the European Central Bank is expected to leave rates at 2% Thursday, but a growing number of economists think it may have no choice in the coming months but to cut rates if the euro continues to rise. By contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates from a 45-year low of 1% at some point this year as the U.S. economic recovery gains steam.
This means investors may be about to face a double whammy of lower returns - as some central banks cut rates - and higher costs - as the Fed tightens monetary policy.
That would mark the reversal of a large-scale trend in carry trades, and history suggests this kind of correction often leads to bloodshed: Investors rush to the exits all at the same time, currencies plunge and panic selling sets in.
The most notorious carry trade accident was the dollar's collapse versus the yen in 1998, triggered by the Russian debt default; a less extreme example was the Australian dollar's 20% decline versus the greenback in 2000.
Hedge Fund Managers Buy Protection
It's also very tempting to stay in these markets as long as possible. Borrowing dollars at 1% to lend to Australian banks, for instance, resulted in a gain of at least 38% in 2003 - some 4% from net coupon payments plus 34% from the Australian dollar's appreciation versus the U.S. dollar.
But some investors are already preparing for the worst.
Nic Poole, a fund manager with Camomille Associates, a $125 million hedge fund in London, has been buying derivatives that protect his portfolio against a possible stampede of investors fleeing high-yielding currency markets. To him, the key warning signs that a correction may take place soon were Fed suggestions that it may raise rates this year.
"The recent Fed comments put you on alert for a real change in rhetoric and policy," said Poole, who is using mostly currency options to protect part of his global portfolio of bonds, stocks and currencies. "There's still some upside left in carry trades, but we've started buying downside protection."
The first Fed signal came in December, when it downplayed worries about deflation; last week, the Fed weakened its commitment to keeping rates at historic lows by retiring a previous statement that rates would be low for a "considerable period." Yet activity in currency derivatives markets suggests few investors are taking precautionary steps like Poole's. Giovanni Pilliteri, an options trader at Deutsche Bank, says there has been more demand for options to buy these high-yielding currencies than to sell them. "Most people don't think a correction is imminent," he said, explaining that people are waiting for this weekend's meeting in Florida of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations. Deutsche Bank is recommending that clients buy derivatives that protect against potential losses in what are popular carry trades: the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar; the New Zealand dollar versus the yen; and the British pound against the Swiss franc. Near-Term Profit Opportunities
The correction in carry trades can also be an opportunity to profit - even before it takes place.
hahab Jalinoos, a strategist at ABN Amro, believes there will be clear winners and losers in the coming months, until the Fed raises interest rates and triggers a major turnaround in high-yielding currencies.
To differentiate between them, Jalinoos recommends looking at what central banks are doing. A shift to easing policy is a green light to sell. The rationale: Yield chasers don't want to invest in countries where interest rates may be cut, so the moment they see a risk of policy easing, they shift to currencies that still offer the prospect of rising rates. So as some central banks begin cutting rates, the odds grow that investors will further inflate the bubble in the remaining high-yielding currencies. The euro, meanwhile, weakened slightly amid growing political calls for rate cuts.

Article was on last week veryinteresting re: carry trades

Ldn 01:51 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Van jv This site may be the first place where the change in trend is recognized its always the smaller guys that normally the ones that miss out at the start but reading FX concept today they are also seeing it commodities and their currencies peaking

ldn 01:46 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
All signs now point to fact that housing lending cycle in Australia is rolling over, Michael Blythe, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank says steam is coming out of the sector and the trend will become clearer when January and February data published
ABC

Philippines newtrader 01:43 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
good morning to all............................

byron 01:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Black Friday, these markets smell quite funny, could be a bit of blood letting today I think.

Van jv 01:39 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Re Key Int. Rates , Compliment of Jay,: are the rates for UK and Australia topping to indicate that yield game may be soon over? Will we still reach/ aim at 2.oo for BP? and .80 AUD? Assume not before int. rise is on horizon in US...

Dallas GEP 01:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I am short CADDY @ 1.3220 and long USD/JPY @ 105.38. CADDY executes offf a standing order I had ans I took USD/JPY long during US session.

Dallas GEP 01:30 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
I am short CADDY @ 1.3220 and long USD/JPY @ 105.38. CADDY executes offf a standing order I had ans I took USD/JPY long during US session.

hk ab 0.88 01:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
did anyone short eur/gbp at .6780?

I am still holding dlr/jpy long from 105.40
and I have an option at 105.90 as well.

now, just the eur/chf is flat like a line.

hk ab 0.88 01:21 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
The eur/aud can do some meaningful move now.

Makati Obelix 01:09 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GVI John, thanks for the charts. Glad I was able to login early.

hk ab 0.88 01:08 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
As I expected, some early birds pushed them. Now, they are running out liquidity at all.

Ldn 01:05 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Citigroup now expects RBNZ to leave cash rate unchanged at 5.25% at March policy statement, partly because December, 4Q retail sales data today softer than expected;a slump from department stores, plus housing-related retail sales "ground to a halt." NZP

ny rm 00:59 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GVI john,
Thanks a lot for the charts

Ldn 00:57 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD remains unchanged following the better then expected data. After an earlier push above 0.7900, the upside momentum seems to have been exhausted for now, while bid interest is reported into mid-0.78"s. Stops are also heard below 0.7850, but good support should come in around 0.7840.
reuters

Brisbane L 00:41 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Mizoguchi:No Comment On Possible ECB Joint Intervention

typical politician double talk

Brisbane L 00:38 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Australian housing finance falls 0.8% in December from November,market consensus for fall of 2.5%. However, fall does add to view housing finance now in downtrend, albeit housing market cooling,

Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT February 13, 2004
AUD/USD : If the market can penetrate through 0.7882, the supporting point at 0.7849 is likely to be tested.


GVI john 00:36 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Central Bank Monetary Policy forecasts, Month ahead Currency forecasts, Charts and more available on GVI Prefessional Forum. Contact [email protected] for a free trial!

Melbourne Qindex 00:34 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : If the market can penetrate through 0.7782, the supporting point at 0.7849 is likely to be tested.

GVI john 00:32 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Australia- Decenber Housing Finance -0.8% vs. -2.5% expected.

Melbourne Qindex 00:31 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is going to pullback and test the quantised level at 0.7885.

Melb 00:26 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Media reporting of foreign exchange market intervention by the Bank of Japan is often inaccurate, according to an article comparing media reports to actual intervention data for the period 1995 to 1999 (Frenkel et al (2004) Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 14:25-36). The authors find that the probability of an intervention report being accurate is only 60%. The probability of an intervention report appearing in the press given that intervention actually occurred is only 45%. The majority of the interventions conducted by the BoJ were not reported in the press, while the press frequently report intervention that never takes place. I think this partly reflects on the nature of financial market journalism. Journalists are required to report on markets on a daily basis, regardless of whether there is an interesting story to tell. They are also called upon to account for market moves for which there may be no obvious explanation. Reporting market intervention rumours is an obvious way to fill the page and explain market moves that cannot be rationalised otherwise.

http://www.institutional-economics.com/

Melbourne Qindex 00:18 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:17 GMT February 13, 2004
AUD/USD : A projected resistant level has been established at 0.7908 - 0.7917.

Spr NoodyG 00:15 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
good stuff !

GVI john 00:11 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
U.K .rates

GVI john 00:07 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
My pleassure. Thought they might be helpful. Still trying to load the UK rates. I can't leave them up for long because they slow down the forum.

Brisbane L 00:00 GMT February 13, 2004 Reply   
GVI john thank you for the charts

 




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