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Forex Forum Archive for 02/15/2004

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Deauville Nico 23:46 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys, and don't worry about euro. It won't go down anymore i think. It started the consolidaiton already and it looks reasonnable to buy a batch here with a stop on a new down; first target 1.2770.

Pecs Andras 23:41 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Dont quite get you ML
Does that mean to you that EUR/USD will drop or go higher?

Atlanta. M 23:33 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD's sharp fall from 1.2895 late last week could lead to new decline if not reversed quickly, says CBA's John Gajewski. A drop through 1.2640 would raise odds for return to 1.2335, perhaps drop to 1.2100-2200. reuters

ICT ML 23:25 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
a genersal observation...the retail quotes are shifted biased USD long right bid quote is retail if going short say eur/ are being shafted 5 pips right now at entry....

gives a clue where they think eur/usd is going this session...

Moskow 23:16 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
ga Lee 23:01 GMT February 15, 2004
Thank's for a valuable suggestion, but this 'unauthorized ads' offering the FOREX data of highest quality is necessary on a forum, like this, I think.

ga Lee 23:12 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp seems to me to be in a .6790-.6640 channel now..looking at the weeklies fwiw..

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 23:03 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Something not sounds right --> Yen crosses!

Look how easy eur/gbp stay under .6760 now.

ga Lee 23:01 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Moskow 22:32 GMT February 15, 2004
you need to talk to Jay before you post stuff like that..unauthorized ads ya know..

WASH DC SRQ 22:46 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Moskow 22:32 GMT February 15, 2004
real data,and software to aalyze and generate signals?
any idea on that? just researching good ones here

Brisbane L 21:17 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Apart from deficit, US is in rude health
"If I have made myself clear, you must have misunderstood me," Federal Reserve chairman Dr Alan Greenspan once told a congressional inquisitor. But Greenspan's testimony to Congress last week about the state of the US economy was a clear thumbs-up for the sharemarket. It contained an obligatory warning about the medium and long-term risks raised by the Bush Administration's budget deficit.
But it was fundamentally positive about the recovery that is under way in the country that owns half of the global share-market's value. Here's some of the things Greenspan says are happening.  There is no longer any either/or question about US economic growth, as there was last year. Jobs are still at a premium in America but it now looks like last year "marked a transition from an extended period of sub-par economic performance to one of more vigorous expansion", including 4.5 to 5 per cent growth this year.  The economy has been posting what Greenspan described as "stunning" increases in productivity, as enterprises deploy improved systems and processes to meet demand and keep payrolls tight. Output per hour in America's non-farm sector jumped by 5.25 per cent last year. Job numbers have fallen sharply in recent years in industries that led the technology boom and this is obviously one reason why productivity numbers have been strong. But Greenspan believes that America is also harvesting late fruit from the 1990s technology boom, which predicted that new technologies, notably in information processing, would transform business processes and lower costs. He also says that companies cannot continue to rely on efficiency gains to keep up with the demand that is emerging. They will soon need to begin boosting employment, too - at a rate that in Greenspan's opinion makes President Bush's target of 2.6 million new jobs this calendar year achievable.  There is still spare capacity in the US after the spending binge in the 1990s but US companies are once again investing, funding their capital expenditure out of higher corporate earnings and not from additional borrowing. Industrial businesses in the US boosted borrowing by only 3.5 per cent in 2003. Business credit quality in America has actually improved substantially in the past few years, because many companies have restructured their balance sheets, Greenspan adds. Default rates on corporate bonds fell sharply last year and recovery rates on defaults improved. The result is that "financial conditions remain quite supportive of further gains in capital spending".  The huge liquidity injection produced by the big-spending Bush Administration and the Fed's maintenance of generation-low interest rates is apparently being absorbed without inflation. Although the US dollar has fallen by about 13 per cent since it peaked early in 2002, import prices have only edged up - because importers are absorbing the currency impact rather than lose price competitiveness in the huge US market. And the US itself is not awash with cash. The most common measure of money supply, the M2 aggregate, expanded by 5.25 per cent last year, slightly less than the pace of overall economic growth. It actually shrank in the final three months.Greenspan's conclusion is that the economy is travelling comfortably. He says interest rates must rise eventually but "with inflation very low and substantial slack in the economy, the Federal Reserve can be patient in removing its current policy accommodation".Greenspan's stable interest rate scenario was one of two key takeaways for the sharemarket last week and it pushed US shares sharply higher initially Share prices then eased as traders mulled over Greenspan's warnings about the US deficit, which is projected to rise from $US375 billion ($473 million) to $US521 billion this year. The deficit has grown because of tax cuts and spending aimed at boosting growth, big outlays on national security (including the Iraq invasion), and a fall in tax revenues caused by the economic slowdown that is now ending. But Greenspan says it also reflects"a tendency towards diminished restraint on discretionary spending" on the part of the Bush Administration. Interest rates are the price of money and the deficit raises the risk that that price will be forced higher if the Government's demand for capital to fund the deficit combines with private sector demand to swamp the available supply of funds. The rate increase would be an automatic response to excessive demand and, depending on when it occurred, it could undermine the economic recovery. Greenspan says there's a longer term risk too, because the Bush Administration has moved the Government into the red at a time when its revenue base is being squeezed by the retirement of the baby boom generation. If the deficit stays high for too long, it will eventually have to be funded by "debilitating" tax increases. But on balance his testimony underpins the sharemarket rally that began in mid-March last year. Wall Street's S&P index of 500 top American stocks has risen 43 per cent since then. But US corporate earnings have kept pace and the index is still reasonably valued, at about 18.5 times predicted earnings. The S&P 500 is still 25 per cent below the high it set early in 2000, at the end of the technology boom, and the Australian market is much closer to its previous top. The ASX 200 needs to rise only 4.9 per cent to hit its March 2002 peak of 3497.6. But here too, valuations look reasonable. The local market is trading at about 16 times estimated earnings for 2004 and at about 13 times estimated earnings in 2005. Commonwealth Securities analyst Craig James notes that the market's average price/earnings ratio here for the last decade is 17.2 times.
Local share valuations will be tested as the December half profit reporting season continues but, so far, so good.

Jeddah Elmeer 17:53 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb, are you there ?please can you contact me on msn?

phils VL 17:06 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw

your 50% R cud be correct if I also look at the hourly stox which is lingering at the oversold area and waiting to turn around up. In placing the 75 lvl I made a couple of assumptions -

. there was extended trading at the 68-76 lvl on Friday with 3-5 pip jerks, and it lasted sometime as support which cud now flip to be resistance
. 1.2650 = second wave down target before a meaningful retracement up
. 1.2775 = start of the second wave down to 1.2650, a 125 pip range which is a 61.8% fibo projection of the first wave down plus allowances for overshooting and/or testing of the previous 1.2768/75 support level

Anyway iw, all of these serve only as eye-openers. Our final action must still be confirmed by technical indicators.

I wish you a happy Sunday, and now say good nite as it is 1.03 am local time.


hong kong nt 16:41 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
GBP wave count

wave 1 is 1.5608 - 1.7076

wave 2 is 1.7076 - 1.6562

wave 3 is 1.6562 - 1.8984

wave 4 ~ 1.8984 - 1.8060* (50-day ma/38.2% retracement)

wave 5 ~ 1.8060 - 1.9750* (50% projection/wedge formation?)

Helsinki iw 15:54 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your views, VL. Agree pretty much with your
levels, however experience has shown that quite often on a
key reversal the retracement is to the midpoint of the reversal
range. I will however be selling before that to add to existing
position, as I too am playing a better top in place now.

Have a good week.

phils VL 15:27 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw

eur/usd - I left a week-end limit sell entry at 1.2775 with s/l abv 1.2848. The hourly and 4 hrly 20ema are at 83 and 70. Your 50%R wud be ard 1.2804, less aggressive but safer than my limit and it wud depend on your risk tolerance. There is of course the possibility it wud get up there when the US traders take profit and reload for shorts, which will mean a rather decent retracement from Friday's 1.2715 low.

The Asians have not yet shorted. Assuming the pull-up is shallow and its their turn to short, a break of key 1.2700 will print the next key lvl of 1.2650. If this cycle turns out, there will be a bounce up frm 1.2650 to 1.2740-1.2770 which will provide a good chance to short. Whatever the case, I suggest you watch the 30' and 60' stox and macd for the intraday flow, direction and reversal and 4 hrly for the 'bigger' intraday flow. I use stox 13,5,3 and 39,15,3(fast %K, fast %D, slow %D), and macd 19,39,9, and 57,117,9. Hope this helps.


Helsinki iw 13:35 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
How do yuo see it vl, Midpoint of Fridays range good place to
add to shorts?

phils VL 13:30 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD - the 1.1980 mid term target is a fibo retracement figure which also coincides with the last high before this current run-up leg...

phils VL 13:18 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
sorry folks - somehow the post was broken up - here's the full post.

EUR/USD - a 915 pip trading range opportunity

The sharp 179 pip drop frm the 1.2894 high in 2 hours last Friday and especially in a NY session, has done significant damage to non-commercial spec bulls who stuck to the 'straight-line up' wish list. From an already weak intraday (4hrly) position on 6th Feb Friday b4 the G7 meeting, it pushed 190 pips up in 2 hrs. And again on the following Monday, another aggressive push up of 158 pips from the week-end gap dwn. The market found another excuse to push up 168 pips in 1 hr in Ny session following Greeny's and usa's exposed weak dollar policy.

Only heavy weight commercial specs are capable of over- running, notwithstanding a top heavy euro and notwithstanding disapproval by EZ. The objective would either be to push up to a high enough lvl for dumping and bailing out of risky and diminishing value long positions, an intended bull trap for many many private and individual specs, or to over-run major stops below. I however maintained that euro was overstretched & looked tired over the last few weeks moreso with its recovery from the 1.2335 low. I took profitable advantage of the swings mainly frm the short side.

Technically, the daily candle now shows a bearish engulfing day reversal pattern. A double top formation at 1.2894 is in place and I shall continue to ride the swings both ways and overweight on shorts. The 4hrly indicators are showing the way. They crossed the 12 hrly, and the 12 hrly crossed the 24hrly which are also beginning to turn down.

From the time it reversed at the 1.2335 low, I found that the 1 and 4 hrly charts provided good direction, and the 10 and 30 min charts good for entries and exits, which captured reasonably accurately the numerous swings of 30-150 pips. Many cases of bearish and bullish divergence appeared in these charts which supported mainly my views from the short side.

The situation is now one of usa's open declaration for a lower dollar at least until 4thQ against EZ's wish to contain the euro. The Japs obviously want a stronger dollar. In between, China and M-E are not about to push euro higher when EZ's intentions are now well-known. The overall weight will therefore be in favour of a lower euro which should slide zig-zag to 1.1980 in the months to come.

This is a 915 pip range and will provide good swing trading opportunities, particularly from the short side.The caveat is above 1.2930 which cancels this strategy until 1.33 is seen. But can anyone truly see EZ sitting still doing nothing beyond 1.2894?? .... unless in the unlikely event a 1.30 line in the sand has been drawn!

imo. GT GL

Global-View 13:06 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   



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london 12:22 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
How Thin is the Ice? by Don Stott...

hong kong nt 11:45 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
ab -- my wife and i derived weekly range for GBP 1.8388-1.8888...good trades...

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 09:35 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Athens, the deficit might be due to the fast reducing Purchasing power which led to another higher debt.

I like your word, "ridiculous".

Athens 09:14 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
From today's Trendways weekend analysis:
"The funny thing (or not so funny) last week was that Greenspan's USD comments that led to a sell-off on that day were ridiculed on Friday by the US trade deficit figure for December, $42.5 billion, which is the second biggest monthly figure on record. I am saying "ridiculed" because following the September G-7 the US currency had already depreciated severely during the fourth quarter of 2003. And yet, its depreciation not only didn't help the US trade balance but led to yet another monstrous figure. Not to mention that it wasn't only a one quarter USD decline but a strong depreciation going back another two years. Hopefully we won't now see those theoreticians speaking again about the lagging effect on the J-curve, that myth had already been exposed in 1986."

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 09:02 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Anybody knows what time the Euroflash GDP is tomorrow?

Thanks in advance.

belden mb 08:41 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab: euro/gbp should get strong support .6680/85.

Khobar 08:14 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
Thank you so much

Melbourne Qindex 08:01 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Khobar 07:42 GMT - I just sent an e-mail to you.

Khobar 07:42 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex Thank you very much.
I'll appriciate it if you add me to your mailing list: [email protected]

Melbourne Qindex 07:36 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Khobar 07:24 GMT - You can find details in my website (add dot com to qindex) or simply send an e-mail to me.

Khobar 07:24 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex Where can I find that regular services?is it in that link?
(Sorry for asking you many questions).

Melbourne Qindex 07:08 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Khobar 06:04 GMT - My monthly cycle analysis is currently available in our regular service.

Melbourne Qindex 07:01 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Khobar 06:04 GMT - I will post them here in an appropriate time this month. If there is a general interest I guess Jay can arrange another page for me.

Khobar 06:04 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex Thank you.
Are those cycle analysis for public? If yes,how may I get?

Melbourne Qindex 05:59 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Khobar 05:47 GMT - You can get some idea about cycle analysis from the following link : Quantum Index Analysis

Melbourne Qindex 05:59 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Jay!

Melbourne Qindex 05:57 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Khobar 05:47 GMT - You can get some idea about cycle analysis from the following link : Quantum Index Analysis

Khobar 05:47 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
I want to know about cycles;how?
Thank you

Melbourne Qindex 05:18 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
If there is a general interest among viewers, we are going to run a similar monthly cycle analyses on other 9 items. This would include Spot Gold, EUR/JPY, EURCHF. GBP/JPY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT February 11, 2004
GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 1.8522* - 1.8679* - 1.8835* - 1.8991* // ...

After Expansion

... // 1.8522* -1.8600 - 1.8679* - 1.8757 - 1.8835 - 1.8913 - 1.8991* // ...

phils VL 04:26 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD - a 915 pip trading range opportunity

The sharp 179 pip drop frm the 1.2894 high in 2 hours last Friday and especially in a NY session has done significant damage to non-commercial spec bulls who stuck to the 'straight line up' wish list.
From an already weak intraday (4hrly) position on 6th Feb Friday b4 the G7 meeting, it pushed 190 pips up in 2 hours. And again

HK [email protected] 03:51 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Looking on her face; Alex polier; Looks like a good Mama’s Jewish girl from Minsk.

Search on Google , finds Polier family name in Jewish women’s archive.

Add on that she is now in Nairobi…Miss Polier and her fiance were believed to be hiding yesterday at the Nairobi home of Mr Schwartzman's parents, who moved to Kenya from Israel.

And we have a new MONICA LEWINSKI.


HK [email protected] 03:19 GMT February 15, 2004 Reply   
Weekend is a time for serious gossips….I think this guy Kerry is in trouble.
What is a bigger trouble for an American man, than falling in the hands of an American woman???? Hahahahahahahaha

'This won't go away. What happened is much nastier than is being reported'
By Adrian Blomfeld in Nairobi and Andrew Alderson
(Filed: 15/02/2004)

Alex Polier, the twenty-four year old journalist who could end Senator John Kerry's hopes of becoming the next president of the United States is alleged to have had a two-year affair with the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Last night the rumours were in danger of becoming a full-blown scandal.

"This is not going to go away," one American friend of Miss Polier said yesterday. "What actually happened is much nastier than is being reported."
The allegations come at a crucial time for the senator. Polls showed him leading Mr Bush by 52 per cent to 42 per cent, and aides will be anxious to see if the apparent scandal affects his standing among voters……

…..Miss Polier's parents, Terry and Donna, from Malvern, Pennsylvania, added fuel to the fire by claiming that Mr Kerry did pursue their daughter.
"I think he's a sleazeball. I did wonder if she didn't get that feeling herself," said Mr Polier. "He's not the sort of guy I'd choose to be with my daughter.
"John Kerry called my daughter and invited her to be on his re-election committee. She talked to him and decided against it."
The Drudge website also quoted retired Gen Wesley Clark, one of Mr Kerry's rivals for the nomination, as having told journalists off the record: "Kerry will implode over an intern issue."



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