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Forex Forum Archive for 02/16/2004

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Global-View 23:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   

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Perth AS 23:49 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
This is something to keep an eye on incase the Labour government gain power in Australia very negative $A

Australian Business Grp Warns Labor On Workplace

One of Australia's major business groups on Tuesday criticized the major opposition Labor Party's industrial relations platform warning it would compromise the country's economic development. The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry, in a review of Labor's industrial relations policy adopted at the center-left party's national conference last month, said the package equates to a more centralized workplace relations system. "The additional costs it would impose on business through further regulation and heightened trade union activity would have significant implications for jobs and employment," the chamber said in a statement.
Labor, which has forged ahead of the ruling Liberal-National coalition government in recent voter opinion polls to be in an election-winning position, wants to abolish Australian Workplace Agreements and individual bargaining rights.
It also plans to expand the Australian Industrial Relations Commission's powers and awards regulation, and boost the rights of unions to enter workplaces. Further, Labor wants to give casual workers the right to convert to part-time employment, and would give preference to union-friendly companies when it comes to government procurement contracts. The chamber said Labor's broad economic objectives of its industrial relations platform - competitiveness, productivity, and full employment - are sound. But it argued the platform is more regulatory than when Labor was last in government between 1983 and 1996 and would compromise the party's own economic goals. The chamber said it is seeking further discussion between the business community and Labor.
The conservative government will be seeking a fourth consecutive term in office, while Labor wants to bring an end to eight years on the opposition benches

Dallas GEP 23:39 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
This KIWI short is VERY VERY slowly pipping it's way down.

Melbourne Qindex 22:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 1.2703 - 1.2740 - 1.2776 // ...

Melbourne Qindex 21:58 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:03 GMT February 14, 2004
EUR/USD : My 5-day cycle charts indicate that a projected resistant level is located at 1.2786 - 1.2792 .................................

Atlanta 21:55 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Rate rises trigger fall in Australian housing
17.02.2004
By MARION RAE IN SYDNEY
Australian residential property investment fell in December for the second consecutive month as borrowers reacted to rising interest rates. The fall adds to evidence that may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to pause on its rate increase track. The central bank, trying to rein in runaway credit growth, increased its official cash rate by a quarter-point in November and December, partly motivated by a red-hot property market as a five-year boom continued.But the lending figures suggest the borrowing binge may be easing, which may encourage the bank to hold rates steady at coming meetings as it did this month. The purchase of dwellings by individuals for rent and resale fell 3.8 per cent to A$5.53 billion, seasonally adjusted, in December, after declining 2.8 per cent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said. The falls ended six months of increases.This is exactly what Reserve Bank officials want to see," said J.P. Morgan senior economist Stephen Waters. "It was the inflated investor-populated apartment segment of the market that worried them most.
"Falling apartment prices, low rental yields and rising equity markets - the most liquid alternative investment for individual investors - also make investment in housing less attractive."
Higher interest rates appear to be curbing Australian consumers' appetite for borrowing, but not at a rate to suggest the Reserve Bank will hold off tightening monetary policy for a third time in coming months.
Personal borrowing fell 1.1 per cent in December, a second monthly fall after increases in the previous six months.

- REUTERS

Barcelona JR 21:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Yes JP

Barcelona JP 20:50 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JR

Are you here?

Gen dk 20:09 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 19:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, I am not really sure. The message I beleive is a mixed one. I fully expect to see alot of sellers upon approach of 1.29 again if seen. If 1.29 is broken then I see another barrage of sellers around 1.30. If it is a green light, I don't think there will be a huge rush to get across for fear of a tractor trailer coming around the corner, unseen; yet very deadly!! LOL

Barcelona JR 19:55 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP don't go to a.c.m . I have been there. MArtin Benschop from Forex Gestion is behind them and also they shift their quotes 2 pips against your opened position so you are trading with 5 pips spread.

Barcelona JP 19:53 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I think freedom is going to be an strange thing

GVI john 19:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Please do not refer to brokers by name here. Its not fair to anyone concerned. Thanks.

Barcelona JP 19:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
BB

I'm not scalping. But always 50$ will be more than 30$ and at the end of the year how much would it be?

USA Biscuit Boy 19:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
New York if I wanted to take them back then I guarantee I would be seeing 51/53 vs 48/53 lol

USA Biscuit Boy 19:12 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Well I suppose if you are trading for 5-10 pips then I will agree. Then go with oenda. But thee retail platforms really position their prices in an incanny manner so it is hard to realy get any advantage out of a 2 pip spread compared to 5 pip.

New York BS 19:12 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy, what about when you want to take em back later and you're seeing 48/50 vs. 48/53? I'd say that would matter to me. Further, with most of these platforms having one touch stops it makes a significant difference there as well as they can cut you out without it even dealing there on other platforms.

Dublin CK 19:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:04 GMT February 16, 2004

Gracias amigo

Barcelona JP 19:09 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
It's not the same start a trade with 50$ against you than 30$

Barcelona JP 19:08 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
BB

It makes a great difference. It does.

USA Biscuit Boy 19:05 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
JP I now believe the spread doesn't make a difference at all when choosing a broker. I don't think your trading performance will be any different between 2 or 5 pip spread.

E.g. if I want to sell eur/usd and sexo is quoting say 1.2765/70 while oenda is quoting 1.2765/67 then I still get filled at 65. No difference at all for the majority of my trades.

Now if a broker had a 10 or 20 pip spread in the majors I would change!

Dallas GEP 19:04 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
CK I use 12,26,9

JP NOBODY is always right!!!! LOL

Barcelona JP 19:03 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
For me, the dip in Cable today was at 1,8767

Barcelona JP 19:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
you see, a thin world like the market!!!

Kaunas DP 19:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP
from beast reaction to 1,888x dip your view is appreciated
GL

Barcelona JP 19:01 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you said that was snowing in Dallas.

Well, today is snowing near Barcelona.

Dublin CK 19:01 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:50 GMT February 16, 2004

Thanks Dallas, but what would be the ideal settings for the MACD? 12,26,9 - 19,39,9

I know this Q is for the help forum, but...............

Barcelona JP 19:00 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas

As always you are right GEP.

But today isn't a good day to trade.

Barcelona JP 18:56 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Made 5 pips in GBP/USD

Barcelona JP 18:53 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Nothing at all.

Now I trail my stop at 1,8897. So, at least I'll make 5 pips.

Dallas GEP 18:51 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
JP there is NOTHING wrong with 20 pips!!!!

Dallas GEP 18:50 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
To the newbies: the MACD will normally tell you whether a ccy pair is a BOD (buy on dips) or a SOR (sell on rallies). A very gradually upward sloping MACD then is BOD and a gradually downward sloping MACD is a SOR.

For example: look at one hour chart on GBP/USD and that would indicate a classic Buy on Dips scenario. So your chances are better if you wait on an entry to LONG rather than selling at this level GENERALLY speaking.

Barcelona JP 18:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
OK Dallas.

But today I'd have made 20 pips if I had square it at 1,8880.

Aden PK 18:46 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP, thank you for support, and good luck, I will leave the forum for a while to have a dinner, I am already late it is 18.45 GMT here, Good luck will be back in an hour.

Barcelona JP 18:44 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ADEN

The spread is not as good.

You get a better one with [email protected]@S or FX [email protected]@L

Dallas GEP 18:43 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
DP altough stochs are oversold and it is at upper bollinger band, the MACD is RISING which means to me we could very well see more longing. Playing it conservatively I wouldn't short from any level less than 1.8980. So I think I would be a buyer @ 1.8850 and a seller @ 1.8980 or 1.8950 if you wanted to be more aggressive

Aden PK 18:42 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, I trade with s#a#x#o# and believe they have one of the good trading system.

Barcelona JP 18:41 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
But, honestly, I'd not do it today. Thin market.

Barcelona JP 18:40 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
What I see in Kiwi is a ride of 40 pips.

It's a buy until 3:00 GMT at 0,6975 and a sell at 0,7073

Aden PK 18:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, Thank you my freind for guidance and encouragement, you are right I have to be patient, and I will. noting this is my only 2nd trade in NZD/USD, therefore not having much experience how this pair normally move,

Barcelona JP 18:34 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
LAX

Once I shorted Cable at 1,2902, I'd had to trail at 1,8880. But I did not do it. I did not care about the thin market we have today and that was and still is an error.
But the best of all is that my (system?) begins to give me nice profits.

Kaunas DP 18:33 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
what is your view towards beast shorting assuming good odds for lower levels during Asia - TIA

Dallas GEP 18:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Got another false spike down to .7037 on KIWI. Plays havoc with charts!!!!

Dallas GEP 18:29 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
PK, You are going to need to be patient with KIWI. MACD hasn't turned down yet but IMO it looks promising. STOCHS have maxed out and it is near upper BB, Looks better than anything else I see right now although that probably isn't saying much!!! LOL

LAX DS 18:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP, I'd say a trailing stop but it depends on your objective. What was your plan after the entry? What did you end up doing?

Aden PK 18:20 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP. yes looking the cable chart I feel it do indicates that correction is on the down side. I wish you from my heart good luck in your trade.

Well I will wait a little more time and if kiwi will not drop with a fast pace I will close the position sooner than later. I wish I should have shorted Euro instead of kiwi but just greedy to short at 1.28. Any how hoping for the best.

Dallas GEP 18:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Yeah TJ, I could see that. I did a word association deal a long time ago and I am sure they are wondering WTF is wrong with me!!!! My wife who I was going with to marriage consueling with at the time was not amused!!! I got a kick out of it though.

Barcelona JP 18:09 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ADEN

Look at RSI (GBP/USD)
It couldn't go over the last high (1,8917)

About NZD. I did not trade it, but if you use PP and Hi/Lo system it was clear for me: short.

But now, it's over 0,7073 again. It's late and the market is thin. So better stay away.

USA Biscuit Boy 18:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
As I recall asian names went on a buying spree when euro gapped down after the G7 weekend. Same ones that sold at the top on Friday???

Dallas GEP 18:05 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I will be away for a while guys. Back in Asia more than likely. Will check here periodically.

GA TJ 18:03 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

You are one sick, demented puppy. If needed I can refer you to a shrink. Used to date her but she was always try to analyze me. I think it scared the censored out if her.

Aden PK 18:01 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barecelona, JP There are still some offers left in cable near 1.8815-20 but there after strong offers are only seen near the recent high 1.8895, substantial bids are now seen at 1.8800-1.8820

USA Biscuit Boy 17:59 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
NAB must be breathing a sigh of relief they cottoned on to those unauthorised trades when they did. Looks like 0.8 will be traded soon.

Dublin Flip 17:56 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona there was a hedge find selling from Asia into Ny friday. The rumours were who it was for????? ECB was the popular though unlikely noise that had people reaching for the trigger.

Dallas GEP 17:55 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
It;s funny guys,when things are slow and I don't see anything that excites me possie wise, I always look and see if usd/jpy is around 105.30 for a gut wrenching maybe 2-3 day long!!!! Is that sick or what???? LOL

Aden PK 17:54 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP, Well I believe you must have read my earlier post because of which I shorted kiwi, normally I dont trade this pair, but some how today after observing the monthly chart where RSI is almost 94 and long term resistance line now dropping near .7110 level encourage me to take short, I hope I will be right in analysing, my view is almost supported by Dublin, Flip too, lets hope for the best.

Frankly, your cable position is not looking me good convincingly I believe it should buy on dips near 1.8850-60 I wish you best of luck.

Dublin Flip 17:54 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona I'm not quite sure what you are asking but I surely don't have any problem with people running trailing stops or taking profit. If one was talented or lucky enough to be long from 1.2350 I'm not expecting him to run it all the way back down. What I'm talking about is whether the long term players have been in a distrbuition phase this past 6weeks.

Barcelona JP 17:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
The best trade ( I think ) in GBP/USD is a short one.

S/L 1,8938

USA Biscuit Boy 17:50 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
No doubt we will get to see if the sellers reappear at 1.2890/00 before too long.

Barcelona JP 17:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin

If you were long EUR/USD from 1,2350 and you saw that it could not go over 1,2900, what would you have done?

Dallas GEP 17:46 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I bailed out on that eur/gbp long @ .6760 for -3 pips. I don't like the fact the pound is showing more strength than the euro (what else is new???)

pd cumino 17:46 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Flip when i said lt seller I mean perhaps in the ECB interest.
Also I was noticed of some German and French names before interested in some short dated short ITM seagulls with KI in good size. A very good business.....

Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Well I saw that spike down on NZD on GGFFTT so it doesn't surprise me it wasn't real. LOL

Barcelona JP 17:41 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I thonk Kiwi was a short once it traded over 0,7073 and then went back to it.

Dublin Flip 17:40 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I'm not sure what sort of people sold friday Cumino. Being a long weekend for most I doubt the spec market was holding much as you say. It did appear there were some big volumes going through 1.2850/90 so maybe you are right and we are seeing some long termers take some risk of the table. I think the weak USD story is starting to lose some legs for the moment. Europe seem to get more sluggish by the data releases and to me the tick up in import prices is worrying. Friday's intial reaction was to the growing deficit but as I said friday on GVI it seems to imply that after two years of US devaluation the low intrest rates encourage more imports than the low USD can discourage. i.e. How can one have a policy where you want a lower currency to mute the trade position but at the same time give out cheap liquidty to consumers who just add to the beast. I personally think that the holes in US's deficit reduction plan are becoming self-evident and the surge in import prices were a big shot across the carry trade's bow. It's been back to business as usual today (buying anti-dollars and shares) but it's hard not to notice they are all riding on continuing the Fed funding @ 1%.

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 17:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I haven't seen this spike on my NZD chart

Aden PK 17:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, I believe just a bad feed, nothing seen such drop with my broker system, Kiwi is almost stand still at .7072/.7077

Dallas GEP 17:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I just saw a .7038 spike DOWN then up on NZD. Was that a bad feed or was that tradeable?????

Livingston nh 17:29 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino suppose you were buying EUR from parity and you were thinking of revaluing your currency against the USD but you already held a lot of USD assets (treasuries) -- you might want to take some profit in EUR to buy some treasuries to support your already large position

Barcelona JP 17:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Please, look at GBP/USD chart. 5', 10', 15'.

RSI. Look at the divergence from the high.

Dallas GEP 17:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Cumino, we have a diffrence of opinion her on the board but I think it was EU and Asian boys personally that SOLD euros.

Dallas GEP 17:26 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
JP, Pound is like a mistress, don't love her too much, she may try and take everything you own!!! LOL Happy you are doing well with it however!!!!

pd cumino 17:21 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Flip. I'm scratching my poor head around a question: who sold Friday for almost two big figures without buying back some.
Oh yes, I know, the magic words were "profit taking" but by who? Not specs, who were enough squared since Thursday, not surely medium term crowd, who absolutely aren't long and eventually instead sold on 1.2770 or so and was stopped out higher.
They were long termers sellers. Or, better, a long term seller, I suspect. Mmmmm.

Dublin Flip 17:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I thought it would be pretty dull to be honest. I think what we are seeing is a few who squared friday jumping back in once it appeared Trichet was not going to be drawn on FX. A few may have even been short expectinghim to exploit the thin liquidity with a euro gaffe. He's not that nieve and he he's not that short-sighted. I though he was pretty good. He seemed to make a pretty good explanation that real intrest rates are at zero (like the US) and even playfully joked that maybe the Americans "talk a good economy" (my words). He also kept pounding away that monetary policy is accomadative and stimulus needs to come from reform. I think you'd have to be a mischievous journalist or lazy FX dealer not to agree with him.
I think Asia is the key. Yesterday, they nibbled away on the lower Anti-dollars from their friday close without overplaying their hand. They have bought most days and have been giving a good lead but at the moment 1.28 looks expensive to me.

Oakland Daimyo 17:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
bid

Barcelona JP 17:08 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Oakland

bid or ask?

Barcelona JP 17:08 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Okcland

Barcelona JP 17:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Whi is going to win, longs or shorts?

Barcelona JP 17:06 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Ready for the fight ay 1.8867?

Oakland Daimyo 17:05 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
JP, I have EUR/USD high for today 1.2789 on one platform and 1.2790 on the other.

Barcelona JP 17:05 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I LOVE YOU GBP/USD.

st. pete islander 17:04 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
JP, I have 1.2789 ... you did better than mine. gt

Oakland Daimyo 17:03 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Pd cumino-- You are not alone. You will see. Be patient.

Barcelona JP 17:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Could you tell me your EUR/USD high today?

Mine is 1,2792

pd cumino 16:58 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Tks Flip. I always read you with attention.
I have a curiosity, today I thought to see another little dollar advance during London hours. Was I alone to think that?

Barcelona JP 16:53 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD target: 1,8828.

It will find some fight at 1,8867 in case it hits that level. It's the PP of today.

Dublin Flip 16:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks vm cumino (as always) for "putting some meat on the bones" on the repatriation story. As you suggest, I don't think the volume per se should be the main concern but it could work as a circuit breaker in market phycology and encourgage the (till now) latent merger/takeover business that has been awaiting cheaper value US assets.
Some European countries would be affected worse than others. Ireland for instance has a low company tax environment with heavy US invesntment and therefore would be worst affected. High tax economies like France and Germany are hardly tax shelters and therefore won't be affected except at the margins. Unfortunately one of the downsides is that it will encourage the tax harmonization that the bigger european countries aspire to. Personally I think that just further pushes competitive tax reform further back on the agenda but there you go.

Atlanta 16:44 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
IMM data released Friday shows the market’s positions on currency futures as of 10 February. The data shows the market pared back its JPY longs marginally to now post net long speculative positions of 76K contracts compared to a record high of 86K net speculative longs in the prior week. EUR net long positions, meanwhile, were built to 45K contracts compared to 36.7K contracts on the same day in the prior week. AUD longs continued to be built up, rising back to 41K contracts after having fallen to 35K net long speculative positions at the beginning of this month. As of last Tuesday AUD positions still look quite stretched by historical standards, CHF net speculative longs rose to 17.3K contracts from 13.7K contracts in the previous week. GBP net speculative longs rising to 37K net long speculative positions, posting the 4th consecutive week of a rise. Net speculative long positions on the CAD fell to historic low of 10K contracts market has already priced in rate cuts by the BoC in Q1 and Q2, Note net speculative positions as the sum of the net non-commercial and net non-reportable positions.(reuters)

Livingston nh 16:43 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW on a slow day from one with burned fingers - USD/MXN has been trending down on MACD since the end of Summer and price seems to have made an extended head and shoulders - 21 da sma broke below 55 da ema early in January but is now trying to rally back above while MACD has rolled over again// remember this is the currency that "made" Rubin -- if it went from 3 to 6 the world would end // spreads are a little rich if you trade it but if you catch the wave it can be quite a ride

Barcelona JP 16:42 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Well, as I said to you, shorting GBP/USD at 1,8898 it was a good idea.

I did not short EUR/USD as it did not trade over 1,2792. But I'm ready to do it in case it does.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:35 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nt, joined the camp on the fig and 1.8888

USA Biscuit Boy 16:30 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Very slow day as expected. Looking to snap up some euros around 1.2660/70 for 1.35 over the coming months unless Greenspan raises early (which I can't see happening with unemployment still a big concern). GL and Gt.

london cam 16:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta 16:24 GMT February 16, 2004
more $ to prop up the $/YEN. LOL

mex sjs 16:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
just longed usdchd here at 1.2320 s/l 1.2300 tgt 1.24's

Atlanta 16:24 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
A large U.S Treasury coupon payment is expected tomorrow in excess of USD 20
bln. USD 8 - 9 bln is expected to be paid out to Japanese investors

pd cumino 16:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
$300 billion was considered a conservative estimate of the likely amount of dollar repatriation. Events over the past several months point to a potentially much larger number.
An increase in business spending as large as $50 billion per year would provide a substantial boost to employment (a survey shows that 35% would be used for cap spending during 2 years). The proposed tax changes would result in a large flow of capital into the US. At first glance, potentially large oneoff flows might be expected to give a substantial lift to the dollar. However, any effects are likely to prove small because these cross-border flows are still very modest relative to the enormous size of normal flows in the FX market. In addition, a large portion of foreign earnings held abroad are already in US dollars.

Oakland Daimyo 16:11 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Flip. Nice to keep in context. I don't trade fundamentals but I keep them in mind as I know they are followed by many.

Dublin Flip 16:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo there are a couple of rumblings of repatriation.
The long mooted Homeland Investment act which would work like a tax amnesty has been kicking around washington for a while now. It was considered that with the economy rolling along it may be put on the back burner but it appears either way the ground is being laid to induce substantial US multinational billions back to further support the economy. I personally think this is one of the reasons that Snow and co can't wipe the grins off their faces. The weaker the USD the more the eventual surge will be. Still we'll see if it comes to pass. There have been a few false starts on the repatriation stories.

Oakland Daimyo 15:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Food for thought: "SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THE DOLLAR] with a potential boost lying in wait as the deadline of Mar 01 approaches for the US to abolish the loophole that grants tax breaks to US exporters. This rumbling friction has been ongoing between the EU and the US, with the WTO finally ruling that such "subsidies" were illegal. The abolition elimates the favourable treatment enjoyed by US exporters who hold their earnings offshore, and thus could lead to a substantial repatriation into USD." MMS
Not sure how much affect this will have, but it might be the excuse corporates need to re-adjust books. Plenty of money being held overseas by US companies. They will bring home if there is no advantage for keeping it over there. US corporates not interested in playing yield-differential more concerned w/ safety and trade.
Just something to keep in mind over the next few weeks.

Dublin Flip 15:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
no probs pk
be lucky

Aden PK 15:49 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip, I appreciate your comments, it looks me you are following kiwi very closely, any how freind I thank you for your such a convincing and a professional post. Good luck to you in your trades.

Nottingham 15:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
now or never for euro...little shs formation developed so top for day could be in place unless it makes new high soon...good res at 85/90 so I'd bet some stops sit above there...gl gt

hong kong nt 15:39 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ab -- guess aud, nzd may reach 0.815, 0.725 very soon before good correction set in...

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
NZD didn't like that .7083 level very much AT ALL. DOJI on that 30 minute SELL candle.

Aden PK 15:38 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Many thanks Notingham and Dublin, Flip, I gree with your comments, I sold basically considering overbought, secondly on the monthly charts the rally in NZD/USD is approaching towards.7170 high last seen in 1996. Plus if we see the other high at .7230 seen in 1988 and if we connect both tops the resistance is coming at .7115 and I expect that rally will fail in this resistance area.

I believe Flip I take your advice and add to short on further rallies with stop now at .7120

Dublin Flip 15:38 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
point being if you are a longer term punter sell away and hang tough. If you are a day trader, kiwi is a hard one to nail on the day due to it's small number of local players and huge interested observers. The fun happens on the rush for the door but picking that can be very expensive. As bc and co will attest the lack of liquidty has advantages (currently being exploited by bigger players) and disadvantages (when they all want to square). Kiwi is an up the stairs, down the lift well instrument with few peers.

Nottingham 15:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:31 GMT

something that may affect oceanics...ZAR has jus come up on my radar as far as breakout potential concerned...similar but opposite direction occurred mid December...a break of today's high tom will be the key and I bet it could do 6.78/80 easy by close tom...downside key would be holding today's low otherwise break of last week's low a given imo...gl gt

Dublin Flip 15:33 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
pk kiwi is currently running 15.7% above 200day MA @ .6125
That's very expensive in my book. I do believe that it's nearing a major trend high but the risk is where the overshoot can be. The next level of significance is nov 96 high @ .7159 and then june 88 high .7220- It is nosebleed territory for one buying a dairyfarm economy-LOL (apologies Kiwi cousins)

Nottingham 15:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip 15:27 GMT

My studies would agree with you - selling anything other than at o/b levels and you will have taken a hiding all this and last year...so the assumption must be that nothing changes until it changes, hence I would only short at o/b levels...gl gt

beijing road 15:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I was surprised to see the cable get above 1.89 level, it is a sign for it to take 1.90level soon? Any comment plz? thanks.

Dallas GEP 15:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks NOTTY RE: NZD, I knew I took it a little early but I was going to be away from board a few so I didn't want to miss it if it shorted down from .7070

Dublin Flip 15:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
pk both AUD and NZD have had enormous support from Asia but primarily Japan over the past two weeks. Absolute uridashi zillions are currently being bought. While that continues it makes it difficult to fight the tape. If of the toppicking disposition it might be best to layer into a position gradually. I agree both look very overbought and have been slowly selling myself but it's best not to put all ones' eggs in one basket or at one level. Then again maybe you could be the straw that breaks the camels back-LOL

Nottingham 15:26 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Aden PK 15:17 GMT

See my o/b levels a few posts down...selling somewhere between those has allowed you to take profit same day or following day, or follwoing plus additional sales between that day's o/b levels...gl gt

Sydney Alimin 15:25 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Tomorrow will be a very interesting day to trade..we have mixed bag of actions

Nottingham 15:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 15:14 GMT

Instead of stating prediction is foolhardy and leaving it at that, he went on to quote Greenspan in such a way to discredit him, since being the Fed chairman he ought to have some idea of where the US dollar was going, or at least not imply that he was clueless...even in that case, if clueless then you have no leg to stand on by trying to influence market...bottom line is I think Greenspans comments will have put a bigger wedge between US European relations as it clearly highlighted that US happy to grow at expense of Europe, where before the idea (in public if not privately) was to grow in tandem

slv sam 15:21 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
the second trade which can create your wealth is selling $/y all the way target 90, but this one requires deep pocket just in case BOJ wins!GT

Oakland Daimyo 15:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
The "plunge protection team" is trying hard. Let's see if they got the ammo.

Aden PK 15:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Freinds, any comment on Nzd/USd, I believe it look sell on hourly charts as well as Aus/Nzd looks buy on the hourly charts, your comments will be appreciated

Sydney Alimin 15:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trichet will not be stupid, he will have to use some shock therapy if he has to break the eur/usd rally

Eilat Dolphin 15:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham/ Strange... I had the feeling his joke was at my/our expense, not Greenspan's.

Sydney Alimin 15:12 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I think Trichet is playing mind games here and just when everyone is starting to feel comfortable with long position again, he will drop his 300 pips bomb

Oakland Daimyo 15:12 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Holiday trading takes longer but the result is still the same.

slv sam 15:11 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
There is only one way to be really rich and that is to buy e/$ and stick to it or accumulate , sell for at least 150-200pips profits..e/$ will see 1.40+ longer term imho.GT

Aden PK 15:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi freinds, short Nzd/USD @ .7070 stop .7090 as I feel break will see at least .7115 Target .6970

Looking to seel USD/Cad @1.3210 or 1.3235 stop over 1.3265

Nottingham 15:08 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 15:02 GMT

Trichet comments could be regarded as a well embedded joke at the expense of Greenspan following the Fed chairman's blatant disregard towards euro with his comments about dollar weakness last week

Nottingham 15:06 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:52 GMT

nzdusd 1st o/b 7080 2nd 7110...pays to short above my 1st o/b lately...both aud and nzd crosses are either o/b or almost there (certainly none or fair or o/s), so initially selling prssure might come from crosses, particularly cad, as cad strength in usdcad (expected to attempt lower following break lower friday) is expected to help cad in its own crosses and at present aud and nzd crosses offer best value...gl gt

GENEVA ALAN 15:03 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
1.2790 provides good selling opportunity with stops right over the figure 1.2805.
If We don t break up, tomorow would open the door for 1.2640.

Cheers, ALL

Barcelona JP 15:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP/USD. S/L 1,8945
Target: 1,8830

Eilat Dolphin 15:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Boca/ But how deep a thought! " Use any set of systems and indicators you want, it's still like tossing a coin".

What a lesson for us people...

What I sense is that he is telling us that the E is too high, much too fast.

Deauville Nico 15:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ok, for me, Trichet doesn't give a censored about the current level of eur/usd and we're going to test 1.29 again. So far, the reaction on the chart is positive, if we keep this cap till the end of his intervention, then the next target is 1.2810
GT

B.A. BOCA 14:58 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
trichet quoting greenspan. this is a problem..

Eilat Dolphin 14:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trichet translation from French: Four of us CB signed the text.

Dallas GEP 14:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Sold NZD/USD @ .7069, put stop ABOVE fig. May be a bit premature but good trade anyway IMO

Oakland Daimyo 14:51 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
If we're gonna move higher, Cable should take the lead. If not, we get a good short from 1.8900 failure.

Oakland Daimyo 14:46 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
looks like GBP/USD is bid. Will wait to short later.

HK [email protected] 14:45 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
1.2893 Prev. high is to be tested if excitement will continue. If the news do not worth the emotions it created; double top may form at that level.

Barcelona JP 14:42 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Wait for GBP/USD to go over 1,8898. And then, when it returns to it, short it.

GA TJ 14:41 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GEP, I am thinking more along the lines of 1.2800. Want to see what it does at that level. Will Short it on weakness. My WAG for today is range b/t 1.2800ish and 12750ish. tradable I believe , if patient.

slv sam 14:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
hrading=heading

slv sam 14:35 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
inho we are hrading to 1.30-1.31 this week.GT

Barcelona JP 14:35 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
But let it go over 1,2792 and then when it returns short it.

Swiss DG 14:34 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trichet is repeating volatility concerns and G7-communique, but overall happy with eurodollar levels. Strange....

HK Kevin 14:33 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Very boring market. Long EUR from 1.2728 this Asian morning and covered at 1.2662. Then turn short cable from 1.8878. Hong Kong nt, I like your wave count.

Barcelona JP 14:33 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Agree with you GEP.

Dallas GEP 14:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
OK guys, the way I see it, if 1.2780/85 area holds this would be a good short to 1.2730 area. I don't think I would try a LONG from here because it is kind of in no-man's land.

Vilnius george 14:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
when Trichet is saying
":FX Rates Should Reflect Fundamentals".
for me it's an old story as it was with Japan.
It can only mean one : direction eur/usd - UP.

Barcelona JP 14:30 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Pivot point of EUR/USD today:
1,2771

R1 1,2822
R2 1,2982

S1 1,2672
S2 1,2621

warsaw mach 14:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
LATEST COMMENTS:
On the recovery, Trichet said: "When we last met in December economic indicators and financial market developments were already supporting our view that a gradual economic recovery had started in the euro area in the second half of 2003.
"The evidence that has since then been available has made us more confident that the recovery did indeed begin in the second half of 2003 and has strengthend our expectation of upswing in economic activity.
"On a global level this view was shared by all participants at the recent g7 meeting in Florida. The robust real GDP growth in the economies of the euro area's major trading partners over the past few months can be expected to support foreign demand for euro area goods and services.
"Looking ahead the external environment of the euro area should continue to develop favourably and broadly based global economic recovery should gain further momentum."

Oakland Daimyo 14:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Watch for behavior/energy clues. We should see motive soon.

warsaw mach 14:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
HIGHLIGHTS-ECB's Trichet in European Parliament

BRUSSELS, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of comments by European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet as he appeared before the European Parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee on Monday.
LATEST COMMENTS:
On financing conditions, he said:
"While domestic demand remained subdued in 2003, the conditions for some improvement are now in place. Investment activity, in particular, should profit not only from strengthening global demand but also from companies' earlier efforts to enhance productivity and profitability from the historically low levels of interest rates and from the favourable financing conditions that are prevailing in the euro area."

Kaunas DP 14:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
do we have any advertised stops for eur/usd on the upside - TIA

Barcelona JP 14:22 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
A trading idea for today (it's not mine):

Buy EUR/USD at 1,2662.
S/L 1,2627
Target: to start, 50 pips and then we'll see.

Sell EUR/USD at 1,2792
S/L 1,2827
Target: to start, 50 pips

Barcelona JP 14:22 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Algarve Box

Your firewall will always alert you when a net work wants to connect to you

SA Bok 14:18 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Maybe does not want to create Volatilty and they realised they would ... with US Holiday ... EUR Fin Min's ... we wonder what the powers to be are up to ...

Barcelona JP 14:18 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trichet can hit your stops, obviously. But who is charge here?

The owner of the tide: USA

Livingston nh 14:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Johannesburg cd - if Fed looks to raise earlier because of stronger utilization figures some might see that as USD positive short term

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Ah ok, thanks guys.
Looks like the market is waiting for Trichet.
Hourly chart is still forming a doji

Swiss DG 14:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Sorry. Trichet speech starting right now...

Barcelona JP 14:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Tichet is not Mr. Bubble. We should not forget that.

USA it's a nation with a goverment an army and so on.

EU is 25 countries, 25 armies, 25 goverments and so on.

EU is a mess and USA is a block.

Eilat Dolphin 14:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
On now!

slv sam 14:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 14:10 /
if you mean as a L/T target then consider 140-145 please!GT

SA Bok 14:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Swiss DG 14:14 - Thks... Interested to know why .... Hmmmm

GER ad 14:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
bloomberg (UK),
Trichet delayed

Eilat Dolphin 14:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
5 minutes ago Tri-Chat wasn't yet in the room, as per CNBC images.

Swiss DG 14:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trichet speech postponed. New time not known now.
DG

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 14:11 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Looks like the world is ignoring Trichet at the moment?

Barcelona JP 14:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
USA needs $ down. We are in a tide and tides take time to finish. So we'll see EUR/USD + 1,3000.

SA Bok 14:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Networks are amazing .. Bloombergs says all day will show speech.. now Q and A on Stock Market from NY ... so if anybody can see the speech please post .. TIA

SA Bok 13:58 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Boys heads up .. this market is thin with US out ... if Trichet does say something out of context or expected but unexpected , prices will be hard to hit ... Take care out there

Johannesburg cd 13:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Livingston I see the predictions are 76.2-76.4 so that will probably be the expected figures.... any correlation with fx markets? Will lower numbers have a negative impact?

OK SZ 13:51 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
thanks

Moscow Mishanya 13:50 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
He speaks in 10 minutes

makati boobah 13:49 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
10 pm philippine time

OK SZ 13:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
anyone know what time he speaks?

makati boobah 13:45 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
hi all. good evening....any view on euro tonight after Trichet's speech? thanks

Livingston nh 13:43 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
tomorrow will be the first market test of the Fed's new benchmark for monetary policy - capacity utilization// the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization figure for January is a Fed developed statistic and at the last meeting the Fed announced that its patience is now tied to this figure// the figure stalled at 75.8% in December after some modest gains - a 1% jump might trigger a reaction in the bond market

Dallas GEP 13:30 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
SK, no I don't know the man, WHY???? ONLY thing still open is EUR/GBP long and I am getting pretty bored with that!!! LOL

Barcelona JP 13:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham:

Well, they say they offer interbank rates. Their spread is 2 pips in majors and their platform is Commerce Bank one.
The problem is that their web site seems secretism.
JP

chicago cal 13:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
euro is also a good buy around 1.2600 but that may be wishfull thinking at this point

Algarve Box 13:25 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 13:02 GMT February 16, 2004
Warning: when I try the access to the demo account my Norton firewall give me an High-Risk alert:
"A computer with the IP address 64.247.48.194 sent information that is characteristic of the Altavista_Traversal attack."

chicago cal 13:25 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
i feel that euro is a decent buy above 1.2800 for 1.2900 that is the only trade i'll attemt today

gl,gt

Nottingham 13:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 13:02 GMT

if they can't get their site to run properly i fear for their trading sofytware...bargepole comes to mind...go for the biggest most reputable names imo as you don't want to be let down

Barcelona JP 13:18 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
A trading idea for today (it's not mine):

Buy EUR/USD at 1,2662.
S/L 1,2627
Target: to start, 50 pips and then we'll see.

Sell EUR/USD at 1,2792
S/L 1,2827
Target: to start, 50 pips

Stockholm za 13:13 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY >> R & S zoans ...... This Week
8717-8665
8614-8598
8531
8464-8449
8397-8346
True ~8815-:-8279

"" And Do Remember
3 ways to lose money quickly in this type of market :-
1. No patience to wait for setups
2. Trade the setup horribly
3. Market hop from setup to setup constantly looking selling right before the market takes off or covering right before the market tanks to play the next "hot news tip".

So what can change that behavior? Not charts, not setups and not knowing market direction it has everything to do with discipline. Discipline you can't find in a chart you have to find that within yours ""
Have a Happy trading week every one.........

Barcelona JP 13:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Do you know anything about www.BankForexTrading.com?
Thank you!!

hk ab 0.66 13:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
brewing brewing.....

How long did it take for nzd to jump from the diving board in 1997?

Lagos Styrax 12:58 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Oboro hope you are keeping up to the rules...

Kaunas DP 12:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
looks like eur/usd 1,28 is pending over the next 6h

Moskow 12:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
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Belgrade Knez 12:53 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Mishanya 12:48 GMT February 16, 2004

Misha I just did.

HKG SK 12:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nk

su

Moscow Mishanya 12:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
mine YIM id is mishanya_fx dot yahoo dot com

feel free to cantact me

saloniko nk 12:45 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Frome now on 1.2650-1.2850 will be the borders for above 1.2850 trgt 1.35 and below 1.2650 for 1.2350 max 1.2250

Both sides Bulls and Beers need to keep a tight tactick and better once market prove them wrong ...hmm better cut one finger than all the arm..


Have a nice day!

By nk

hk ab 0.66 12:34 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
stinky things will be revealed soon.

hk ab 0.66 12:34 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Notting ham, I have a schedule to buy aud/nzd from here till 1.1000 and last s/l will be under the big fig.
Let's see.
Just added one at 1.12

Nottingham 12:32 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 12:28 GMT

fun is only just beginning if audnzd takes out supports just below 1.12...fwiw my o/b for nzdusd today are 7080 and 7110...seeling over 1st o/b level has worked well recently...gl gt

hk ab 0.66 12:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Look how far could this nzd overshoot.

Seems many funds still couldn't find a way out.

Belgrade Knez 12:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Mishanya 12:19 GMT February 16, 2004

Thanks for your reply, I cannot see your name on my yahoo messenger, can you contact me please. You know mine already, don't you?


Cheers.

Nottingham 12:22 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab:

As long as there are dodgy deals/tax-evaders/mafia, then chf will continue to see support...the rate of the currency is largely a side issue

hk ab 0.66 12:20 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Anyone got impt data from aud and nz this week?

Moscow Mishanya 12:19 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
Please ask your question in a help forum.

Or contact me thru YIM. I can help you.

UK/Bristol David 12:19 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
PAR 11:49 GMT February 16, 2004
hello Par - Why so anti GBP?

Belgrade Knez 12:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   

Can anybody teach me how to calculate pivot points, please?

Thank you.

Melbourne Qindex 11:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:57 GMT February 16, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle Reference

... // 1.2629* - 1.2692 - (1.2755) - 1.2818 - 1.2881* // ...

hk ab 0.66 11:56 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, I am still holding dlr/jpy long at 105.40

hk ab 0.66 11:54 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
PAR, I would agree that they have surplus....

but fundamentals...... seems too fragile to say that.

In fact, curr in switz and Britain now seems erratic and discouraging all forms of business inflow.


Imagine how much you spend on the living a month in these countries and in US. Simple.

PAR 11:49 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
JPY, CHF , EUR have sound fundamentals and huge surplusses , so contrary to GBP they can perform without drugs.

Manchester Daniel 11:35 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning everyone. Its been a while since my last post, so comments greatly appreciated on the following observation.

Please note for the EURO/GBP and GBP/CHF pairs - daily chart - slow stochastics 50,3,3. Both pairs are at EXTREME levels.

The Euro/gbp currently is 2 and the gbp/chf is currently 98.

IMO, we will see some retracement this week on these pairs.

GBP/CHF has tried several times to break the 2.2350 area and so far this has held. This corresponds to around 6750 area for EURO/GBP.

I also have 2 different channel projections coming in around the 2.2350 area (+/- 20 pips).

And on a long term chart, the downleg from 2.7229 to 2.0940, the 38.2% retrace would be 2.3342.

I have taken a short from 2.3340 - and see a retrace back to 2.31 area sometime this week, prior to resuming its uptrend.

Your comments appreciated - good luck to all.

hk ab 0.66 11:25 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
PAR 10:44 GMT February 16, 2004
GBP is drugged by high interest rates. High interest rates are a powerfull performance enhancing steroid. Buy GBP on any dip


Does that mean, jpy, chf, hkd should go to helll?

Melbourne Qindex 11:21 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:23 GMT February 16, 2004
EUR/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : The pattern of my monthly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 128.28 - 135.90. The upper barrier of the cycle is positioning at 135.90 // 137.43 and the market rhythm is represented by 152 pips. It is likely that the market has hit the monthly cycle high on last Friday at 135.80. Apparently the market is pulling back in full gear and retreats one quantised step from around 135.90 to 134.38. It is now heading towards 132.86. The lower barrier of my monthly cycle is expected at 126.76 // 128.28


EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Vilnius george 11:20 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta M 11:17
the same I would say for US , and japan.

Bris TW 11:18 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
IMHO Euro has more chance of falling below my lower wall of 1.2700 then it does climbing above 1.2790-1.2800 in the next 12 hours.

Gen dk 11:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Atlanta M 11:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
BUBA MONTHLY REPORT The Euro-dollar exchange rate is the biggest risk to the German economy

Melbourne Qindex 11:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:33 GMT February 16, 2004
GBP/USD (3-Day Cycle) : My 3-day cycle charts indicate that the market is likely to consolidate between 1.8821 - 1.8882 for the time being.

Saudi Arabia Gamber 11:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW
Thank u for the reply. But, I think if he disliked the strength of the Eur then teh $ will rise. IMHO

Atlanta M 11:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Large U.S Treasury coupon payment is expected tomorrow in excess of USD 20
bln. USD 8 - 9 bln is expected to be paid out to Japanese investors, which might
weigh on the dollar in the near term. Option triggers remain in play at 105.00
with protection buying anticipated ahead of them
rts

Warwick Sat 11:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Riyadh Amg.... Raden is off for a couple of weeks..

Bris TW 10:58 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia Gamber 10:52 GMT

It will be unlikely his speach will have any effect on the market at all. He is definately no Greenspan. Expect him to say not much about the euro value except maybe a comment regarding it is undesirable to have large movements in the value of the euro in a short period of time. But it would not surprise me if he makes no comment about euro at all.

Riyadh Amg 10:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Where is Raden Today ?

Saudi Arabia Gamber 10:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
any comments on ECB president speech today? what is the effect if he appreciate the storng Eur?

Alicante RTN 10:50 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Usdcad took out minor res at 1.3184 - may put some s/t downward pressure on euro and cable

Nottingham 10:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
AUDNZD approaching 10 day sma at 1.1192...1.1195 50% retracement of recent bounce (which itself was a 50% retracement of fall from 1.1568)...so hold/break here should be significant...gl gt

Bris TW 10:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Top range for Cable today is 1.8895-1.8910
Support level is located at 1.8794

Bris TW 10:44 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Good resistance for Euro is found at 1.2790
Support range for Euro is 1.2700-1.2720

PAR 10:44 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP is drugged by high interest rates. High interest rates are a powerfull performance enhancing steroid. Buy GBP on any dip.

Bris TW 10:39 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
FWIW EUR/GBP has good channel support at .6747
Top of channel located at .6785

UK/Bristol David 10:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ondon cam 10:07 GMT
TKS for rply.

HKG SK 10:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
To trade in currency market, you need to have continunity. Shorting Euro at 1.2760 on Friday night and now you are long Euro/GBp What is the continunity on that. Please advice??

Belgium (Gent) Sidekick 10:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Guys, any idea if the Euroflash GDP will have an impact today?
(within 30minutes)

Or do you rather think the Trichet testimony will cause some havoc today?

HKG SK 10:31 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Do you know a guy named Neil Kinnon from ECB Group??

HKG SK 10:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEB
Are you still short Euro at 1.2760???
What is your plan next???

Dallas GEP 10:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Yeah NOTTY I am still long Eur/GBP from .6753. It has been pressing the upper BB. I think it has a decent chance of a breakout. It IS and will always be SLOW moving. I took possie originally on premise that euro would short at a SLOWER rate than GBP plus I think M/T players are fighting to keep it above .6750 but WTH knows. It may just pip back from here.

hk ab 0.66 10:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
seems eur/jpy is moving towards daily sma 20 as recommended by bc.

Deauville Nico 10:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys,
Euro found a support at 1.2720, a little bit above the level we had before grandy Green intervention. Euro is now above the hourly 50 ema and this ema is heading north. Aud/usd broke its downtrend, usd/jpy just passed under its hourly 50 ema. There are some signs that show dollar is good to sell. As I never sell an uptrend and because the trend is your friend, I suggest to buy eur/usd, stop 1.2740
GT

london cam 10:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
UK/Bristol David 09:26 GMT February 16, 2004
what will happen to EURUSD today is more difficult to forecast due to holiday in US and thin markets. Additionally, Mondays are trickier to forecast direction.
On the positive side, you have a well thought out plan with stops in place to manage the risk nicely which is more than most do. It certainly doesn't look like a beginners plan to me. If you can handle the risk then go for it.
GL GT

HKG SK 09:59 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEB

still sitting on your short Euro at 1.2760???
I am still sitting on my short t 1.2749. Don't know what to do with it. Any comment???

hk ab 0.66 09:59 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nt, I will send you an email on that.

hk ab 0.66 09:59 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nt, u r so lucky to catch that.

hong kong nt 09:55 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ab--best wishes to your new adventure in lion city, 1st time station overseas?

Nottingham 09:54 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT

You still in that long eurgbp? Minimum trade in previous weeks range, bar once, has been 22 pips, making 6775 for current week...the one week when it didn't was 12/08/01 where it only traded 4 pips in previous range, but worth noting that that week marked the reversal point of that particular move anyway (following theory that fastest part of move is always at the end)...gl gt

hk ab 0.66 09:49 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nt, depends whether the new company likes me or not, earliest will be mid-Apr

hong kong nt 09:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ab -- we short some GBP at 1.888, when will you move to Sing? i miss the dried beef and chicken rice there...

saloniko nk 09:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..
Euro need another shake-shake close to 1.2666 to prove that the way for 1.30 is open..

Euro/gbp right now dont want to help Euro to crack 1.29 and might this Euro up move was a false break for another test of 1.2650

imho
nk

hk ab 0.66 09:46 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
bought a put option on nzd .7000

Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
PipPirate.

I don't think I will need that snowmobile. The snow melted off here in Dallas after one day!!! LOL

Nottingham 09:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Agree wholeheartedly with Athens comments over the weekend re Greenspan...I wonder how long it will be before the market realises that what comes out Greenspans mouth isn't the holy grail...I expect that many believe that the US could arrest the dollar slide if they really wanted...at this stage maybe so, but imo we are approaching the point of no return, after which no amount of intervention will be enough since the market will have lost faith in the insitution doing the intervening, due to the dollar freefall which I expect will happen if the US doesn't pull it's head out of the sand before the end of this year (the Fed)...gl gt

UK/Bristol David 09:26 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning. Im fairly new to this so I would be grateful of any comments on my sytategy for todays trades. My view is that today will be bearish and accordingly I have placed sell orders at 10 pip intervals from 12760 to 12710. My pip target per contract is 25 with a stop loss of 20 pips. TKS and GL

My data calculations are as follows:
EUR/USD Monday 16 Feb 04

dr3 13074
dr2 12964
dr1 12855

50ema 12780
30ema 12767
20ema 12756
200ema 12755
10ema 12743
5ema 12741

ds1 12676
ds2 12606
ds3 12537

hk ab 0.66 09:25 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
oops, couldn't catch the gbp sell order at 1.8888

Dublin Flip 09:18 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Considering AG’s testimony was made largely irrelevant and laughable by Friday’s data, to me the weeks main revelations were evidenced on Friday. European Growth further deteriorated under the strain of a strong Eur$, Import prices rose 1.3% in the month of December and fiscal deficit continues to deteriorate despite two years of extensive USD devaluation.

We see further evidence that “the negligible interest rate policy” is currently far more successful encouraging the US consumer’s insatiable appetite for imports than any weakening US dollar has to effect a moderation in the trade position. Al’s “over easy” monetary policy gusher and the US’s Government “Atkins diet of fiscal indiscipline” show that the current US policies are making the double deficits far, far worse by the quarter. Quite simply there is no desire to oversee any responsible policies that doesn’t dovetail into Asset price reflation. Growth is the main objective yet surely the cost of an ever spiraling mountain of debt should be something of a mitigating factor, apparently not. Currently the US seems to be run by the same “grow or implode” psychology of 1980’s takeover entrepreneurs who are one stalled deal from the poor house.

hk ab 0.66 09:12 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
so quiet mkt.
No liquidity to long eur?

. 09:09 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
.

Gen dk 09:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia VKD 08:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin
1.8988

Melbourne Qindex 08:33 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 08:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : A projected barrier is located at 1.8869 - 1.8882.

hk ab 0.66 08:24 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
really tempting to short eur here.

Plovdiv Gotin 08:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Friday Cable Hi pls?TIA.

Melbourne Qindex 07:49 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

MONACO OGA 07:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 16/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2740), 70 pips lower than last Friday. On weak US, data EUR/USD tested 1,29 again (high 1,2895) before some middle east offers and some profit taking/book squaring sent the pair back down to 1,2720.As long as we don't penetrate 1,2300 we'll stick to our bullish view. A break of latter level could confirm the formation of a double top at 1,29 and would imply a retracement to 1,18 / 1,20. For today, with the US markets closed, we favour purchases around 1,2680-90 (posible extention to 1,2660) for a retest of 1,2800.
Our medium target remains at 1,3500.

No Data out today
Gold around 410,00 , with WTI March at 34,48.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 105,45) still supported by the BOJ, but unable to rise from current levels . We still like to sell upticks (105,50/60) for a retest and break of 105,30 as we cannot see how the japanese authorities can keep the pair from falling below 100 in the medium term. A sharp move is expected at one point.
EUR/JPY (currently 134,40) following EUR/USD price action. Was rejected friday at 135,70. Support today at 133,50-60 and resistance at 135,00.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8860) printed a new 11 years high last friday at 1,8990 before dipping down to 1,8785. Supports for the day around 1,8790-1,8810. 1,90 target was almost done but seems to find fierce resistance up there. Former level should be retested, before next big level at 1,93.
EURGBP (0,6755) currently sitting on our support around 0,6750. We have now turned neutral on the cross and wait for further development.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

. 07:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
.

sgp sp 07:03 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab,

I am not holding any aud/nzd.....just nzd/usd.....looking at aud/nzd......to long if lower levels are revisisted. am patient.
gl & gt

Melbourne Qindex 06:50 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Miami OMIL 06:30 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Ga Lee 01:45 GMT February 16, 2004
If it is all right with you I will ask jay for your email too. (/;->

Eilat Dolphin 06:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Thanks!

Singapore Sfx 06:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Sry .. Eilat Dolphin Trichet 14 gmt

Singapore Sfx 06:15 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
14 gmt

Miami OMIL 06:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Great comments shanghai bc as usual. The market will be quiet so we probably won’t see a move until tomorrow. Now the alarms are up even though I am bullish until other wise proven bearish on the eur/usd. When we have (bc), (athens), (farmacia), and others saying that this eur/usd rally is over then that makes me think twice about putting a mid term position for the 1.30’s. With the reaction that 1.2900 level had on the eur/usd that also raises another flag. Right now I am short from Friday looking for 1.2660-50 and also cautious about this because we are still in the bull’s territory. So at this point until we have established where the market really goes I suggest to pip raid as best as you can with good r/r and great money management which is the key to the whole strategy IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Eilat Dolphin 06:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi Earlybirds! At what time does Trichet speaks ?

hk ab 0.66 06:07 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy likes to move when nobody awares.

hk ab 0.66 06:06 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
sp// are you holding aud/nzd positions?

to me, 1.1310 daily sma 20 is a point to capture and stay above to start the new rally.

now price could go both ways and the 1.1150 bottom could be revisited again.

I hold 1.1250, 1.1280 and 1.1168 longs right now.

HK [email protected] 06:01 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Bearish Euro spirits are creeping into the markets; So I may add too to that mood. We all know that this market may turn irrational at any time. So we may get A Euro reversal to low prices from the range [1.3000-1.3150]. So we have to begin counting on if and if and if... Somehow all are infected by the Elliot syndrom God forbids. Gl/GT

Oakland Daimyo 06:00 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Careful w/ this one as bull pain threshold is high. Sell upticks into 1.8880, if seen, stop/reverse everything over 1.8960. We may get failure before 1.8880 so be ready.

Melbourne Qindex 05:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Oakland Daimyo 05:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
sorry, weak-handed longs not shorts come into focus

Oakland Daimyo 05:32 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Good day everyone. EUR/USD: I sat out last week as I felt the mkt was being “manipulated” by large operators for the purpose of supply distribution not the accumulation of new positions. EUR/USD moved up sharply(Result) last week on unimpressive volume(Effort). Sellers came in strong on the 1.29 level similar to the way they came in on 10/24/03 (defending the 1.1862 level set on 10/08/03) Rumors of European banks on the offer yesterday confirmed scenario. As I have been saying all year. Large operators are holding huge inventory and are happy to unload on the over-anxious public, for this in the only way to readjust such a situation. The smart money has left the building and is now looking to start next campaign. Selling upticks into 1.29 looking to play range (1.2900-1.2330) Last sell signal came in at 1.2780, 1.2685 is key support for bulls, if they do not hold, weak-handed shorts become next target before real money folks come in again. GT to all.

Melbourne Qindex 05:32 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 05:28 GMT - See details in my page on weekly cycle analysis and 5-day cycle analysis. I will run the daily and 3-day cycle tomorrow and will post them in my page.



EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.





)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 05:28 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Mr Quindex , whats ur take on euro s next move TIA

Melbourne Qindex 05:14 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:14 GMT February 16, 2004
EUR/GBP : The upper barrier of my weekly cycle is positioning at 0.6773 // 0.6804 and the lower barrier is expected at 0.6680 // 0.6711*. If the downward trending momentum of the market is strong enough to penetrate through 0.6680, the next targeting point is 0.6618.


... 0.6618 ... 0.6680 // 0.6711 - 0.6742 - 0.6773 // 0.6804 ...

shanghai bc 05:10 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   

RYE 03:54 -- Good morning..Nasdaq bubble burst forced investors to flee Dollar assets and the natural consequences have been falling Dollar on all fronts especially against Gold,Aud and Euro fronts..The question is how much is the fair value of US assets for international investors at a given time..I guess when folks sense the fair value of Dollar assets at a given time,they may start bidding up Dollar again..After some 3 years of run on Dollar, the next question for real money folks must be "what is the fair value of Euro assets"..Personally,I do not see much value above 1.20 for the next several years..But big liner like forex market takes months to reach consensus on the inflexion point usually aided by relevant cb interventions..Imho..Good trades..

PJT -- Good morning..20 dma,20 wma and 20 mma directional bias is not a bad indicators of what the market is doing in short-term,medium-term,and long-term time frame..Imho..Good trades..

Melbourne Qindex 04:52 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:51 GMT February 16, 2004
EUR/GBP : As shown in my monthly cycle the market is going to tackle the supporting strength of the lower barrier at 0.6650 // 0.6713. A projected resistant point is located at 0.6775.


... // 0.6650* - 0.6682 - 0.6713* - 0.6744 - 0.6775* // ...

hk ab 0.66 04:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
thanks in advance sp.

Melbourne Qindex 04:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:47 GMT February 16, 2004
EUR/GBP : My 3-month projection profiles indicate that 2 set of curves are governing the downward movement of the market.

Set A : 0.6666* - 0.6693 - 0.6719 - 0.6745 - 0.6771*

Set B : 0.6607* - 0.6659 - 0.6710* - 0.6762 - 0.6813*

Brisbane L 04:44 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Costello maintains not-so-subtle message rates don't need to go higher, saying latest lending finance data signal housing sector moving to more sustainable footing. Effervescent property market has been major area of concern for RBA, which lifted cash rate twice in late 2003. But Costello argues 3.9% on-month fall in December housing finance, combined with decrease in building approvals, lower auction clearance rates, and slower growth in house prices, means sector is cooling

ABC

sgp sp 04:43 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
hk ab,

It would lovely if u move to Singapore.....I would love to welcome u to my country.

hk ab 0.66 04:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nt, GT.

actually I may have a chance to move to Singapore now.

Porto PJT 03:57 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
BC, good morning/evening, from your latest statements seams the daily 20 dma have great importance to long term traders, are you expecting the same for gbp and aud?
gbp/jpy 200 level seams a important level too, are you expecting this level to be a top or not?thank you and good trades.

Rye, NY et 03:54 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:12 GMT February 16, 2004
I'd like to take this opportunity, in this quiet moment, to thank you for sharing your insights with us here. As to the EUR/USD, do you agree that inasmuch as politics and policies have changed since "$.82" that it would be very much in the interest of some large traders to test the political will of the ECB before a major change of direction? TIA.....................

hong kong nt 03:53 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ab -- sold hang seng at 13845 this morning...

shanghai bc 03:47 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   

L -- Good morning..Good trades..

Brisbane L 03:27 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
IFO president Sinn repeats his call for ECB INTERVENTION to push the Eur rate to below 1.20 vs the USD. In an interview with a Swiss paper, Sinn says it is possible for the ECB to bring down Eur/Usd rate by 100 points by buying $30bln dollars in the market, adding that pushing EUR rate to 1.10 is the most ideal. He also says the IFO"s survey showed that 90% of companies suggested difficulties if Eur/Usd rises above 1.30

(AP)

Brisbane L 03:21 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:12 Good Morning I hope you are well , reading your post below and coming from someone such as yourself is quite a statement - the newcomers on the forum should take heed

shanghai bc 03:12 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   

AB 02:23 -- Good morning..Not a very good news for sustainable rise of Eur/Usd, if Eur/Gbp fails to stabilize above 20 dma..Once we see Eur/Jpy starts running under 20 dma too,it is a reasonably safe bet that Eur/Usd has seen its top for many months to come..Still,the Dollar bears may try one more go at another down leg before the above happens..Imho..

phils VL 02:39 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd

asian mkt lacks liquidity...action muted... u.s. on holidays...

reckon 1.2700 should hold, and retracement up to 60/75 area ... today's range betwn 1.2700 -1.2775. Expect 1.2700 to be given tmrw, then 1.2650 and below....

eur/gbp - euro still softer than sterling, although expect a mini technical rebound later today...

hk ab 0.66 02:34 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
nzd over shoot by the fig. line .4000 by 105 pips 3 years ago.

How many pips can this nzd fly above .7000 line?

hk ab 0.66 02:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
bc//Do you think the eur/gbp can still have a chance to station itself above 20 dma? seems it snaps down every time touches it now.

hk ab 0.66 02:19 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Heat, overheat, superheat, ultraheat........

With a high value of commod. curr, the price of the housing sectors will not be sustained very soon.

Atlanta M 02:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Further evidence Australia housing sector cooling off emerges with ABS data showing purchases of dwellings by individuals for rent and resale down 3.8% by value in December. ICAP senior economist Michael Thomas says data supports anecdotal signs of slowdown in housing ..

hk ab 0.66 01:59 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Expect first wave of eur reversal begins with a reversal in eur/gbp.

Ga Lee 01:45 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
cool TJ, it's alot of work keeping up with data..these guys do a heckuva job here..i don't imagine their hands could be any more full..

GA TJ 01:38 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
ga Lee

Thanks. I just sent Jay a request for your email.

Gen dk 01:37 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View 01:26 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   

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ga Lee 01:23 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
I know a place you can get that TJ :-), for free..email if interested..

hk ab 0.66 01:19 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
The divergence cannot stand any longer.

GA TJ 01:17 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
GVI john

It would be nice to have lots of 30 min data history......Hint. Hint...........

hk ab 0.66 01:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
the crosses are tiding up the majors tight.

Look at the gbp!

I remember the movie I watched last Sat.

"Something gotta to give"

eur/gbp? or eur?

brisbane sunstate 01:16 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 00:48
imo aud is a sell at 0.7920-30 target 0.7850 st above 0.7950
gl

GVI john 01:02 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Those looking for free and accurate forex history can find it on the Global-View homepage. Updated daily.

Atlanta M 00:53 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
House prices have hit their highest levels relative to incomes since records began two decades ago. The average home now costs 5.09 times the buyer’s annual salary, according to Halifax. When a similar level was reached in 1989 it was followed by a crash that wiped 12% off average values and plunged tens of thousands of borrowers into negative equity

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8209-992674,00.html

Gold Coast martin 00:48 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
what are your thoughts on the short term price of the AUD?Has anyone got any figure projections?

Atalant M 00:38 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL think your correct looks like we may see shortterm correction of the USD due to the rapid rejection from the high Friday in NY

Atalant M 00:38 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL think your correct looks like we may see shortterm correction of the USD due to the rapid rejection from the high Friday in NY

ATlanta M 00:36 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Vodafone in $35bn fight for AT&T Wireless
VODAFONE, the mobile phone group, was last night locked in a $35 billion (£18.6 billion) bid battle for control of AT&T Wireless, America’s third largest mobile operator.
UK press

Miami OMIL 00:33 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta M 00:05 GMT February 16, 2004
Sounds about right here are the complete rough fibo retracement numbers for eur/usd 1.2685-90, 1.2625-30 and 1.2550-60. Support for now is at 1.2700-05, 1.2655-50 and 1.2530-35 and bottom is at 1.2350. The 1hr stocks are turning up and this is what I am interested in the strength of the bounce that it is about to give. FWIW if 1.2780-90, 1.2805-10 and 1.2830-35 hold than eur/usd is headed down again with the fib retracement IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

ga Lee 00:32 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Moskow 23:16 GMT February 15, 2004
fair enuff Moskow, but if you really feel it's that valuable then it should be no problem to pay for the right to advertise here, like everyone else..bandwidth isn't free afterall :-)

beijing road 00:11 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
Hi,all,still working hard?lol

Atlanta M 00:05 GMT February 16, 2004 Reply   
There are 2 distinctly divergent views emerging in the wake of the sharp EUR/USD fall from 1.2895 on Friday. The fundamental view is that the correction of Friday was due to a squaring of excess longs ahead of a U.S. long weekend. The big jump in the U.S. trade deficit followed by the slump in the
Univ. of Mich. data should underpin the EUR/USD in the days ahead and the fall to 1.2715 was mere gap filling after the Greenspan inspired rally on Wednesday Technical analysts warn that a break below 1.2690 could result in a much deeper correction towards 1.2550 or even 1.2350. A break of 1.2690 would take out the 38.2 fibo of the 1.2355/1.2895 move and also take out a short-term trendline that is drawn from the 1.2355 low that connects again at 1.2515 on Feb 6. Throw in the fact that Friday was an outside key reversal lower from a significant double top at 1.2895 and you can see the case for a bearish technical view. Some analysts point to the double top made in October at 1.1855 that resulted in a slide to 1.1380 for a comparison.
IFR

 




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