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Forex Forum Archive for 02/18/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The odds are against any short position for the next two days. See details in my page later.

Melbourne Qindex 23:07 GMT February 18, 2004
USD/JPY : We are now runningmore analyses on this pair in the next few hours.

Melbourne Qindex 23:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:03 GMT February - Trading against the major trend is always very dangerous.

Barcelona Tony 23:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
with the news due out tomorrow ... 1.25 sounds easy .... euro is dead and pound will follow (targets 1.15 - 1.70)

Ldn 23:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
The failure at a major technical and psychological level of
0.8000 on the AUD had traders nervously evaluating the wisdom of long positions.After Silver and Copper reversed after setting fresh multi-year highs, the focus turned to the left hand side of bid/ask spreads for Aussie. US, UK and Swiss
names were active sellers and after IMM buying near 0.7960 was overwhelmed, momentum sellers got active. Stops were triggered below 0.7940 and again under 0.7920 driving prices toward 0.7900. The rising Dollar left hopes for any Aussie
rally in shambles and prices slid to a session low at 0.7874. The outside key reversal session is major negative technical signal that can't be ignored. A fall to Fibo support at 0.7825/30 is ahead and traders are even talking about
the longer-term trend support at 0.7740 that may be the eventual target of this slide. Sellers at 0.7925 should cap any rise. RBA bulletin Thursday. Aussie crosses were mixed falling early on as Aussie led the Dollar decline, but rallying later as other majors played catch up. Most are nearly unchanged, but
should fall in the days ahead as the rally is all but finished.
AP

Melbourne Qindex 23:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Global-View 23:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

Re QIndex: 2-day special

We are offering a special offer (for new subscribers only), 2 months for the price of one to get you introduced to Qindex's service. The deadline is Friday to sign up for this special offer. No trials. To sign up or more information, CLICK HERE

Atlanta 23:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex yes I know, he is great and so are you (amazing I think the best word to describe you both)

Dublin CK 23:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
One word Dr Q "Exceptional", its only when u defended ur position after ur usual post that u got me thinking of the bigger picture.

Thk u for ur contribution.

GL/GT



Melbourne Qindex 23:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta. 22:52 GMT - You are welcome! Shanghai bc always give us information that money can't buy.

Sydney alimin 22:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
is this the dead of the bull for eur/usd? opinions please

Atlanta. 22:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Qindex I also have you to thank for your post yesterday stopping me from making bad decisions also the chatter between yourself and BC clinched it.

vancouver jpb 22:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
i'll check it, thx

ICT ML 22:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q...have to say, your post about 1.26XX area raised a bunch of eyebrows, but I knew where you were coming from, and it kept me from blindly buying GBP/USD at my planned support levels.......so I owe ya one!

Melbourne Qindex 22:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 21:55 GMT - You are welcome.

Melbourne Qindex 22:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 22:04 GMT - See details in my website (add dot com to qindex)

Melbourne Qindex 22:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 20:11 GMT - Thank you for your compliment.

Dallas DEW 22:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
It looks like the EUR/USD has reached a fairly strong bottom, at least for the time being. I have just bought EUR's for a target of 40 pips. The Aus. market has just kicked in and I hope the Asian will also help.

Chicago Irish 22:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Qindex....you are most welcome :-)

Melbourne Qindex 22:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles 20:04 GMT - You are welcome.

Melbourne Qindex 22:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 19:50 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

Melbourne Qindex 22:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:55 GMT - Thank you for compliment.

london cam 22:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Memphis Charles 20:58 GMT February 18, 2004
Thanks. I have my doubts too and will wait for US economic numbers to be release tomorrow before opening further positions. I want to sleep well tonight. Lol
GL GT

GVI john 22:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2695…. $/yen 106.70
DJIA 10,672, -43 pts…NASDAQ 2,076, -4 pts
10-yr 4.05%, +1 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI....

london cam 22:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 22:04 GMT February 18, 2004
Qindex is a trading advisory service. there's a link under marketplace to the right of this post

vancouver jpb 22:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me what the Qindex is?

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Further to my comments yesterday, I think mkt is caught short USD. The short term traders who were trying to pick aud, gbp and eur tops have all been stopped at highs, taken profit or greatly reduced their risk, but the longs are still holidng. Event risk for this market is that now it responds to positive US news .. How many people were short USD/yen do you think looking for repatriation flows?

For AUD sell rallies now towards 0.7935-50 and look for test back towards 0.7650-0.7700

Be carfeul of a stop hunt in Asia today on Euro especially around Tokyo lunchtime when market very thin.

we are in for volatile times so plenty of chances to make cash, dont be stubborn.

Ldn 21:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD short-term outlook points down as pair in bearish engulfing pattern that suggests consolidation and further downside if 0.7860 support gives way, say National Australia Bank

ICT ML 21:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
okay, here's what I have now on cable..........had a weak 30 min sell on cable at 6:30 EST this morning...BUT...thought it would just unwind the OB status. I should have looked at the 4 hr chart at that time, because it logged a pretty strong short term sell sig at the same time...and that would have told me to short a break of the 1.9000 support had I been here.
It has broke the pattern for the move from 1.7800 now, so I don't know whether it stops here or heads south farther in the short term. I did tell an associate the other day that if a daily sell sig that was trying to complete made it, I'd expect it to bounce off 1.8500, its breakout level.....

It appears to have been a U$D story today, not a GBP, because the GBP/JPY has so far stayed above its support levels...

I'll look deeper into stuff in a bit....but have to say to Dr. Quindex.....GOOD STUFF last night on Euro....as a technician myself, sometimes we get a signal that is almost scary, and goes against what we "know" to be right, and I think Dr. Q maybe got one of those, and went ahead and shared it with us....thanks much for that.

Miami OMIL 21:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If eur/usd holds at 1.2660-55 then retracement would be 1.2765-70, 1.2795-1.2800 and 1.2825-30 with resistance at the moment in the 1.2715-20, 1.2750-55 and 1.2800-20 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

B.A. BOCA 21:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
the short-term buy on cable i mentioned below could see it retrace to 189,60 or so. still very fragile, though.

london 21:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hello all. i have my doubts about the dollar $correction$ today. my gut feeling tells me this will blow over very quickly, even though this morning i was bullish versus the CAD. But the CAD is in fact only trading within a well defined 4 hour channel as it has for the past several months. ok, we overshot the top of the descending channel this morning, but as you can see now it wants to get back in. the dollar might trade up there for a couple of days max., but after that it will be business as usual. gts

prauge viktor 21:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tony its a good idea but it will come on the level 1,425

Jakarta r4v3n 21:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi there, can anyone inform me what is the level of the usd index now??? tia

Moscow Hawk 21:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Think last few days EUR/USD market has made beautiful presentation of right timing in position opening. Some players who hurried to short euro yesterday were burned when jubbs were executed above 1.29 or squared the profitable position near the cost later on the bounce from the figure. Other who patiently wait for the downside confirmation and open the position on the break 1.2780 were almost no one minute underwater and have booked nice profits or have got nice possie now.

On the market note for the aussie I have the next target 0.7770-10 after 0.7920-50 break.
And the most important developments took place in USD/JPY today. USD/JPY is buying dips now.

Good luck.

Barcelona Tony 21:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
remember 1000 pips ago where ECB stopped the euro rise? wasn't it around 1930? mmmm wow .... did the same 1000 pips later ... fantastic ... so .. if euro rises again (not in the next years) ECB would stop it around 1.3930 .... good

Spotforex NY 21:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I did have a question about the Q&A session - but you have now answered it.

Global-View 21:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

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Memphis Charles 20:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Give it a whirl though; put your stops on.

Memphis Charles 20:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
2770? Tonight? I have my doubts.

london cam 20:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
good day for most even those like myself who were late to jump on the bandwagon.
Gut feeling tells me that asian trade may be quiet tonight. If EURUSD retraces during Asian session we could possibly see 1.2770. Any views?

Dallas GEP 20:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
BTW that 1,2680 took me out of my short. Square on Euro now,

Dallas GEP 20:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I am out for now guys.

Dallas GEP 20:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, some retracement is possible but in my view probably not more than 38%. (Euro and Pound)

USA Biscuit Boy 20:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Either way EC looks likely to get their 1.25-1.28 range.

Miami OMIL 20:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC NYC 20:30 GMT February 18, 2004

Some win, some loose that is part of this business. For the winners congratulations and for the losers get ready for another day because tomorrow brings another opportunity to win IMHO. (/;->

ICT ML 20:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
wow...went to sleep at 1.9060, wake up at 1.8860...........Be back in a bit to catch up on WTH happened today...looks interesting to say the least.....

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If this is a stop hunt then we have some serious stops below 1.2591 watch to see if market goes to that region then bounces quickly back and forth in 1-2 nano-seconds.

Dallas GEP 20:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
YQB, I think .6700 would be a better long but it of course would need to get there.

SA getFX 20:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro > 1.2652 was calculated S5 for today...

prauge viktor 20:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep how do you see it for tonight I mean the eur/usd ..

Dallas GEP 20:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Took USD/JPY short @ 106.80. Looking for 106.50 or lower

USA Biscuit Boy 20:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Rafe just a guess but I think there must have been some official selling above 1.29 and the rest was just a stop hunt. Would love to have some confirmation tho.

Dallas GEP 20:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC, the fact that stops were taken out is part of the game isn't it??? No doubt movement has been abnormal though caused by those stops being run.

london cam 20:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC NYC 20:35 GMT February 18, 2004
True - and a nice impact on many forum members' bottom line which is what its all about!?
GL GT

Quebec YQB 20:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
No comments on my EUR/GBP long? @0.6720

sarasota jf 20:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
my 1.2550/1.2850 wasnt such a fantasy after all just an extra 24 hours

B.A. BOCA 20:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
from a long (or longer, anyway) point of view, USD fall will not switch directions until the FED hints at an imminent rate hike. although today's moves should be a nice warning shot. still think eur 1.30 will be printed, sooner or later. the market needs it.

technical trading has officially begun, buying blind is not longer a safe bet (it seems). let's see follow-through.

Oakland Daimyo 20:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP--The water is muddy at this point. I'm out EUR/USD short +30 I need to review my statements, plenty of action today.

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
would love to know who is behind the selling. this is surely not ECB intervention...IMO, we would surely miss half the move already because of the fast pace of their actions.

it's probably is some big fund or group of funds.

dunno for sure can anyone shed some light on this matter?

Dallas GEP 20:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Short may be running out of steam here (heard that before)

NYC NYC 20:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP. Alot of stops run today.

USA Biscuit Boy 20:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Think Qindex may have been right about intervention today as well above 1.29. Follow thru buying was absorbed very quickly and easily.

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC what do you mean???

NYC NYC 20:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Reading all the bravado here, one would think everyone had a banner day today. Reality check. Market does not move this way when it catches it right.

Dallas GEP 20:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Have a 1.2631 TP on Short MAY close sooner depending on 1.2650 area

Eastbourne PJ 20:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed my short Eur out a little too early at 1.2734 from 1.2910, decided to short again at 1.2677

B.A. BOCA 20:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hello guys, censored of a day today. cable is coming into a short-term buy zone, maybe to catch some retracement. scary one, though. GL

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
euro. 1.2647 (almost there) if that cannot be contained then 1.2591 is the next target.

1.2704
1.2647
*1.2591*
1.2535
1.2479 (full tilt! selling panic IMO)

Miami OMIL 20:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
That is a tough short their GEP you sure are fast and furious lol. (/;->

Miami OMIL 20:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
One of them is bound to hit the mark!!! That is the funniest joke for the day GEP LOL. (/;->

Dallas GEP 20:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Patience and Q's 1.2609 is possible IMO or at least OMIL's figure!! LOL

Nottingham 20:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro...first support at 1.2645/55, low pre Greenspan rap...should hold for at least a bounce (and poss mark low for today) unless panic ensues, where you would look at 1.255 and 1.25...1st o/s at 1.2453

Dallas GEP 20:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Short from 1.2671 now.

Miami OMIL 20:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP this puppy is going down the next stop is 1.2645-55 area IMHO. Can’t take a break today. (/;->

Dallas GEP 20:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I tell you what SCREW this long Euro for now GO SHORT

Miami OMIL 20:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Qindex has my deepest respect as a great analyst here thanks for sharing your comments with us Q. (/;->

Global-View 20:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Note this heads up warning from QIndex. Way ahead of the pack today.

Melbourne Qindex 23:56 GMT February 17, 2004
Dallas GEP 23:44 GMT - There is an unusual high probability value associated with my daily cycle quantised level at 1.2609. This would happen only if someone is planning to set it up for an action today.

Dallas GEP 20:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Just put stop in on long @ 1.2675

Memphis Charles 20:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
My thx. to QIndex as well.

Dallas GEP 20:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that was marked @ 1.2689 (ASK)

Dallas GEP 20:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
DAP if you were short on your Position, then you STOP would have needed to be 2.3461 or HIGHER (I have 15 pip spread)

1.2685 LONG on EURO

Quebec YQB 20:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Going long EUR/GBP. any comments on this pair?

Oakland Daimyo 20:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NY afternoon could go dead on us, but I think everyone is still on alert wishing for this thing to stop. It will stop when it stops. No need to guess.

forestville jd 19:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
williams% at 100 be careful

Oakland Daimyo 19:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
No time for meditation. Time for action. Mo Chi Chu Joining you on EUR/USD short from here. 1.2638 next stop.

LAX-LGB SNP 19:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP ... you should go buy that fighter jet on ebay ;-)

forestville jd 19:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
next low on gbp 1.8843 if 1.8870 breaks cover 1.8849 to cover spread

Miami OMIL 19:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo black crows bearish reversal on the horizon on the 4hr chart is confirmed. 7 inning stretch time for me since I missed my lunch. (/;->

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
YEah IRISH, I agree Q was RIGHT ON.

Moscow Dap 19:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Dallas. I have s/l executed at 2.3455.
Is it possible?

Dallas GEP 19:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Bye JB Looks like MO FUN in store!!!

Dallas GEP 19:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Yeah DAIMYO, I usually just go out and race cars!!!! LOL

beirut jb 19:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ok guys done for today

godd night

Atlanta 19:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD break of trendline support at 1.2765 is "very significant," says chief dealer at German bank in NY. "Technically, today's a very bullish day for the dollar," he adds. Next big support for EUR/USD lies in 1.2630-60 range. Now at 1.2715. USD/CHF at 1.2400, now eyeing 1.2440. USD buying Wed broad based, with funds particularly active
rts.

Dallas GEP 19:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
More surprises in store???? Dollar was just resting??? LOL

Chicago Irish 19:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
For myself I must tip my hat to Qindex whose unusually strident warning on Euro last night tipped me off to the correction potential today.....U-Da-Man now replaced by Q-Da-Man in my book :-)

Oakland Daimyo 19:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I gotta get up and move around. Leaving sell stops just in case. Going for a walk, my therapist says that people who work on computers for long periods of time must take frequent breaks, stretch, and do breathing exercises. Learning Tai Chi It helps w/ balance and focus.

Dallas GEP 19:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
2.3445 BID on GBP/CHF high

Dallas GEP 19:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SNP. until today they haven't really gone down

Dallas GEP 19:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Ok We got TWEENERS now guys. Prices are between a good short and a good long!!!!

LAX-LGB SNP 19:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP i heard about your connectivity issues earlier ... consider a directv dish yet ? my only backup are the phones

beirut jb 19:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
10x dublin

Miami OMIL 19:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP look at it this way you left a tip lol. (/;->

Moscow Dap 19:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
What was high on GBP/CHF, pls?

Dallas GEP 19:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Actually I got slipped a pip so I am a -1. bastads!!! Yeah Daimyo, I was watching that USD/JPY also plus POUND is pipping up.

Dallas GEP 19:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD now looks a little tired. Got out of EUR short at BE

Dublin CK 19:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Id would like to thank everyone for there postings over the last couple of days, especially to all the regular contributors. UR wisdom is to acknowledged.

Today has been one censored of a ride.

I have learnt alot, more than any book could describe.

Hats off to those who have had a good day.

And there is always tmw for those who had not a so good day.

GL/GT

Ps:I Hope Ireland perform as well tonight against Brazil.

Oakland Daimyo 19:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP be careful---USD/JPY falling back pretty hard. Huge candle wick on 4HR

NYC NYC 19:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Viktor. Shows you how much they know. Catalyst was the BOJ and whoever put a halt to the eur/usd move above 1.29. Big time stop hunt today.

OK SZ 19:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SGP, who's site?

Miami OMIL 19:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP you are right like I said before there is some more room (not much) to short. GEP you are the king pip raider here but I play the position that is why the support I posted is a reference to see how far it bounces from there and how the indicators react after the bounce (if any). The bulls are still in control but loosing ground fast IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 19:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Moved stop to 1.2748

prauge viktor 19:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
when Im watching cnbc there is only one reason for the usd strength is Mr Chirac coment about the eur level..

beirut jb 19:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
exactly I lock on profit

beirut jb 19:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
cliped 30 pip on this euro long ans $/yen short

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sold Euro @ 1,2720 Stop 1.2738 WILL MOVE

Caribbean! Rafe... 19:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SNP//check your mail in about 3 minutes.

sgp sp 19:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Athens,

I signed up on your website once on Monday and again yesterday as I had yet to received a reply.

Still nothing so far.....do u need to to try again?

Oakland Daimyo 19:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone else see the potential of "Three Black Crows reversal pattern"--- 4hr Candles?

LAX-LGB SNP 19:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
World Economic Confidence Rises for Third Quarter, Survey Finds (Bloomberg)

Dollar Rises on Signs Japan, Europe Want to Curb Currencies (Bloomberg)

Athens 19:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
As expected, the break od the support line 1.2775 accelerated the EUR/$ decline. Cable has a first support line at 1.8865.

HKG SK 19:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
We still have 30 mins before closing. I will not buy Euro yet we might see more selling when Asia comes in.

Dallas GEP 19:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1,2685 level I mean OMIL

nyc jk 19:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
yeah Biscuit Boy, that was a great call by Q, he should have mentioned he meant 1.26 by today though haha

Dallas GEP 19:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
OMIL I think you could play a long off those levels on Euro but maybe not more than once of twice before it would give IMO

Dallas GEP 19:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Not yet Viktor. I would be inclined to SELL again on a rally

prauge viktor 19:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep what u think plz long EUR or not yet..

USA Biscuit Boy 19:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Lets all remember 1.2609 I think it was posted by Qindex last night. Unusually high probability that level will be seen according to the model. GL and GT.

slv sam 19:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
i do not normally subscripe to conspiracy theory. however, anybody shares with me that todays european mini summet has anything to do with $ recovery, some strategic compromises??GT

Miami OMIL 19:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Rough numbers for eur/usd are 1.2645-50 and 1.2575-80 but I see support right now at 1.2685-80 IMHO. (/;->

beirut jb 19:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
sell $/yen here

Oakland Daimyo 19:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Jb- I'd wait till 1.2713 re taken from below. I have to agree w/ GEP. This move is stronger than you might think.

GER ad 19:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Once again BOJ made some money...

nyc jk 19:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
out of the long for 25 pip loss, gave back a little of the winnings from earlier, wow what a move!

Oakland Daimyo 19:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Bulls are trapped. No relief in sight. How much does it take for them to fold up shop?

beirut jb 19:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
long euro here

Oakland Daimyo 19:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
We will see FX reversal day. Breathe baby breathe.

Miami OMIL 19:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I will second that Daimyo. Out for lunch now and I will keep an eye on the eur/usd, which the bulls are loosing control of IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Dallas GEP 19:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I would NOT look for a place to sell dollars here yet. This MOVE is VERY strong.

forestville jd 19:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
be carefull very oversold but looks like stop are triggered

LAX-LGB SNP 19:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
expect tomorrow to retrace @ least a 1/3rd after today's 2 cent moves and friday to cement the fall

Oakland Daimyo 19:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I can see 1.2638 (50% fibo retrace of 1.2248 to 1.2928 upmove) on break of 1.2706 (38.2% fibo of same move) also, mkt decision makers have shifted @ under the 1.2713 Fractal Low.

Caribbean! Rafe... 19:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
stops located at 1.2675-47 1.2591(deep stops.)

UK ELC 19:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Its not over till its over!

Dallas GEP 19:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Ain't that a fact DAIMYO!!!! More shorting now on EURO

Oakland Daimyo 19:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Excellent work guys. C what can be accomplished when we work "together"

beirut jb 19:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
closed $/cad at 13250 +150 pip

Dallas GEP 19:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OMIL There you go JB!!!

Dallas GEP 19:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Think that Euro longs are not a bad idea. I would TP maybe at that 1.2750 level though.

Caribbean! Rafe... 19:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro// hope 1.2704 holds if not then we see 1.2647 easily.

beirut jb 19:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
closed eur/$ at 12730 +124 pip

nyc jk 19:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
long EUR 1.2725, will sl on break of figure

Miami OMIL 19:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
It has been a pleasure riding with you GEP my number printed so I am out and will see what reaction eur/usd will take from here. There is still room to short but I believe the bulls are lurking around will see if there is a good place to long eur/usd. I see 1.2820-25 as good resistance if broken then the bull will take it higher again to test the 1.29’s IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

beirut jb 19:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
$ sqweeeeeze mode,

but that's it for today

Dallas GEP 19:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1,2720 now has printed on EURO Run trailing stops on that as well now on SHORTS

Mtl JP 19:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
** KUDOS ** on a gutsy call and a great trade
Dallas GEP 16:36 GMT February 18, 2004
Shorted fron 1.2792

LA saint3 19:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
crazy pound is moving down fast ..

prauge viktor 19:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep its sems to be that there is a very good work with the BOJ and ECB Mr Chirac dosent like the eur level ....

Atlanta 19:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro seems to be slipping away now below 1.2760 , does anyone have a level to watch on the downsid for the Aud today

beirut jb 19:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 18:57

c my 18:43 post

Oakland Daimyo 19:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
My phone is ringing off the hook. You know what that means. Not answering it because I don't want to hear the pleas.

Gen dk 18:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

vancouver jpb 18:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
how much further can the EUR/USD go?

Dallas GEP 18:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
There's that 1.8930 print on Cable. Cable shorters need to at least run trailing stops now IMO. Could go MORE. 1.2720 print should be next on Euro. DAIMYO, Good suggestion my friend.

forestville jd 18:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
if broken next support at1.8869

Oakland Daimyo 18:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
It's not over.

Dallas GEP 18:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
There you go!!!

forestville jd 18:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
the key is can the gbp break 1.8920 which took over 18 hrs to break up if broken should open up the down side

Dallas GEP 18:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed GBP short @ +10 BUT If Euro shorts down past 1.2750 area, both will go some more,

Dallas GEP 18:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
yeah it could but not in one movement RE: Pound shorting

mex sjs 18:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
dallas gep, dont u think gbpo can go all the way to 1.8890/1.89 area, .764 fib from week range, am holding shorts gbp from 1.8960

Oakland Daimyo 18:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP--It's been a long night so don't forget to eat.

Dallas GEP 18:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
IF it breaks, Don't think move down will be deep however, Figure 1.8925 on Pound and 1.2720 on Euro.

beirut jb 18:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ update

daily still long, eur/$ found support at 12763 up trendline from recent low,

reversal to short need a close under 12642 on daily basis,

to do that eur has to break first 12760, 12730 127and 12650

a hold of any of these level is a good buy oppurtunity

in my earlier post I favored the short on 129 rejection and 12860 break , now wait n c coz short and long have 50/50 chance at this level
GL GT

Miami OMIL 18:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW on eur/usd support is seen now at 1.2755-60 area the lower the move the more the bears take control of the market from the bulls. I am personally looking at 1.2720-30 area for this move. BOD is still the name of the game and if one of these areas hold then we may see a stab at the 1.2900 area again IMHO.

Dallas GEP 18:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Both POUND and Euro at critical levels. ONE goes they both will go (short that is)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Irene stewards.
I have send you e-mail for eur/usd.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Swiss DG.
I still confidence eur/usd will close above 1.2800 today. But if close below 1.2800 today. don't worry !. still no get bad for few days later.
my reason is : " only 2 days again for closing weekly candle, and if price under pressure down at Thursday and Friday caused by dark cloud today candle (if be done), that's mean eur/usd will get down so far for several week. Beacuse of this I think eur/usd buyers long term (big buyers for primary trend) not will be hold sellers dominate for Thursday and Fridays.
In my philosophy primary players not easy to change their decision because so big lot there. So dark cloud today can be eliminate from my opinion of forcast. You know trend can not easy be changed (see 4 hours chart is important to think).

Dallas GEP 18:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
VIKTOR, Pound will lead the way down IMO

LAX-LGB SNP 18:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD bears won't lose heart as long as Gold stays above the previous week's opening level

vancouver jpb 18:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
thx gep

prauge viktor 18:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep pleas be kind and tell me if you can when it will be the right time to buy EUR once more..thankyou gep sorry i know that I m asking a lot from you.

Swiss DG 18:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
Do you think that if NY close below 1.2800 it is negative for EUR next few days. What if it break last support at 1.2760/65. Thanks for your comments. tia
Dan

Dallas GEP 18:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
JPB:

USD/CAD
USD/CHF

AVOID for now:
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD

Dallas GEP 18:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Stop on any pound shorts need to be around 1.8978

vancouver jpb 18:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
look in to it, thx

beirut jb 18:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 18:17 GMT

$/cad and aus/$ less volatil

Global-View 18:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

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Oakland Daimyo 18:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies are u out there? Are you BOD?

beirut jb 18:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
my target 12760 not hit by 3 pip ,will close my short anytime here,

Dallas GEP 18:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Tony, but this has been moving so fast I have been posting here. That short POUND will be very volatile at this level guys.

vancouver jpb 18:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I am new to forex currenices, been following the EUR/USD --- any other currenices recommended to follow?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 17:59 GMT February 18, 2004

wow.. good !!
have a nice you.
today only get sell at 1.2926 exit at 1.2835.
now still buy gbp/usd and eur/usd again.

Dallas GEP 18:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Exactly right, VIKTOR.

Barcelona Tony 18:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
gep ... you in yahoo?

GER ad 18:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
IMHO EUR, GBP, AUD... Still are going higher in few days.
What is happened today was that the big fishes stopped out the small (and medium) fishes, which have moved early European morning a non-liquid market. The correction is so strong because the JPY weakness (maybe with BOJ help) may take an other day to settle.
Stopped out in Cable at 1.8970

Dallas GEP 18:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Missed the Euro so I got the pound. Should see 1.8925

prauge viktor 18:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
thank you for your advice thats meaning its better to watch him and not to trade with it..

Oakland Daimyo 18:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP get ready-- Be careful of 1st approach. If big guns do not support going into NY close we will get good jump on Asians.

Dallas GEP 18:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Short POUND @ 1.8948

Dallas GEP 18:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, it was a sell @ 202.50 but now I don't know. It is the most DANGEROUS pair on the board IMO. Need VERY deep pockets with 60-80 pip stops min.

Oakland Daimyo 18:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP 18:03--Agreed, I will watch closely as 1.2750 to 1.2790 appears to be congestion zone. It might take some time to work through this area. I'm watching closely as this would open door wide open.

prauge viktor 18:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep do you think is the right time to go short GBP/yen or not yet.

Eastbourne PJ 18:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 17:58 GMT February 18, 2004

Agree, here in UK today there's an awful lot of media coverage about the soaring pound, great opportunities to travel to US, but tourism going to suffer with less US visitors etc. Media stories like this is always a good indicator. Went short Eur/Usd earlier today.

Chambery FR JFB 18:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 18:01 GMT February 18, 2004
Thx :-)

beirut jb 18:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
wow, just come back to find $/cad tested 13230,

13230 break open the door to test hi range 13450 again,

offcorse not today lol

Dallas GEP 18:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed 2nd set or eur shorts at small profit, I think shorting for now may be pausing.

phils VL 18:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad - wl target 1.3255-1.3300 tmrw

shutting down.. GT GL

Oakland Daimyo 18:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB-- Good work.

Oakland Daimyo 18:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
to= top

Dallas GEP 18:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1,2797 is 61.8 FIB of high low for the week so stops on shorts need to be above there.

Chambery FR JFB 17:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:50 GMT February 18, 2004
Thx raden_Mas... looks like 1.8949 was the low for now... Have booked 50 pips, for a whopping total of 163 bpips today, thanks to the beast :-) Am off, happy trades to all :-)

Dallas FM 17:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks all. GL

Oakland Daimyo 17:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Watch out guys talking heads on CNBC. Has anyone observed the increase in talk about FX in the mainstream media. These guys are late by nature. When they buy, we sell as this is usually a warning of to being in place. When the cab driver starts making suggestions of EUR/USD purchases, you know the upmove is over. Operators still unloading supply on over-anxious public. must promote up before dump lower.

Dallas GEP 17:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SJS, Appreciate it but it is a collective effort amongst all of us here for sure.

Barcelona JP 17:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF is a short. Bear divergence RSI

Dallas GEP 17:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FM, QINDEX is one of the best. Other than that right HERE is best IMO (LOL)

Chambery FR JFB 17:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas FM 17:52 GMT February 18, 2004
Hi Dallas FM, try Dallas GEP :-) lol

mex sjs 17:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
dallas fm , you are in it...... the best.....gl

prauge viktor 17:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks Gep today you helped me a lot

Dallas FM 17:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone reccomend a good trade signal service?

Dallas GEP 17:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Viktor 106.60 would be first level to short IMO

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Chambery.
you are right.
wait bottom at 1.8944 for gbp/usd. :-)

chicago cal 17:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
my trades usually last 2-24 hours; i don't really think ultra short-term; fyi

Dallas GEP 17:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Agree NOTTY on CADDY

prauge viktor 17:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hello Gep:do you think the usd/yen its on the end or there is place to 107 or 106,8 thanks.

Dallas FM 17:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, anny news on why $ is retreating?
Thank you and good luck!

Nottingham 17:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Decent cad res here 20/25...gl gt

Dallas GEP 17:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Out at +40 on one set of Euro shorts, 2nd set still in play

HKG SK 17:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
JP
Why 1.2779???

Chambery FR JFB 17:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw :-) Am short gbp again from 1.9020, just broke the 1.8985 barrier, next tp I see is 1.8941 (bid) Comments very welcome :-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1.8965 of gbp/usd .
nice support.

Dallas GEP 17:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Got my +10 on POUND. Euro shorts still in play

chicago cal 17:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
cable is a good sell here for 1.8900 my shorts triggered 5 min. ago sorry so late

gl,gt

Oakland Daimyo 17:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Missed beast again. GT GEP

HKG SK 17:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Bear seems to be taking control.

Barcelona JP 17:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD is a sell at 1,2779

HKG SK 17:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
This 1.2800 seem tough to break. If it does ther will be another 100 more pips to go. IMO

Eilat Dolphin 17:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Just landed. Are the Japies and Euroies CB's throwing some paper around ?

Dallas GEP 17:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, I will just fight the SOB by myself then (LOL). TP is 1.8973.

TP on Euro is 1,2780 and 1.2757

Oakland Daimyo 17:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NY close under 1.8989 for GBP/USD will confirm upthrust. Trap is set. Bearish to say the least. GL & GT

Oakland Daimyo 17:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD risk is too much for me at this time so I'm standing aside. I do however think we have more room to go if mkt stays under 1.8989

cork g 17:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, when will you close your euro short?

Oakland Daimyo 17:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Looks like their gonna hold the line. Not willing to fight this one, I've been off since last week. Went out of town and have not been in rhythm with this one. You are a good trader use your own judgement, maybe se should stick to EUR/USD as it is most vulnerable.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd
LOL. I still suggest gbp/usd for buy.
price still on the consolidation pattern and very potential to get 1.9089 again from low 1.8983

Dallas GEP 17:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
YEP We need to have EURO short as well to help DAIMYO and it WILL IMO. This is strong level for POUND but it SHOULD break if only momentarily

GER ad 17:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Same market other opinion. Long Cable at 1.8986 tight S/L.

Oakland Daimyo 17:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NY afternoon session is tricky, as you know.

phils VL 17:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad - now capped by daily 20ema..expect a mini retracement before the next move up...more likely tmrw..

Oakland Daimyo 17:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP R/R on this one is not as favorable as I would like so cut and run quick on this one.

Dallas GEP 17:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Short pound 1.8983

Oakland Daimyo 17:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sell GBP/USD under 1.8989 No time to explain.

Dallas GEP 17:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1,2837, but I will move it

cork g 17:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, can you tell me where is your stop?

cork g 17:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, can you tell me where is your stop?

Eastbourne PJ 17:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Belgium sidekick 17:04 GMT February 18, 2004

This is Level 2 data for MM's on LSE. Useful for trading stocks and not FX. This is also a service that requires monthly subscription

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Average traded is now 1.2804 on Euro

beirut jb 17:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens 17:08 GMT

10x mate,

yes likely "they" just eat 128 stop for today as they did

with my 12927 stop early this morning before I wake up lol

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Took More Eurp Short @ 1.2820. Again this is aggressive. Most should wait for confirmation.

Oakland Daimyo 17:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM-- My system is time- scale invariate, so predicting if ccy move continues for any given amount of time is not my focus. I will follow as long as strat works. I do however follow cycles which take time into consideration. FYI: The USD typically makes its low in Jan (consistent w/ seasonal cycle--also we are in US election year (4yr cycle) so USD may show some surprises (strength going into election) Also, it's monkey year (Chinese) so anything goes. Plenty of mischief.

Athens 17:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb, folloowing the (expected at least for me) EUR/$ failure to sustain 1.29+ levels, we have now also seen a test of 1.2775 I mentioned here yesterday (not exactly touched but too close to it). But this level is good as a linear support only for today.

Belgium sidekick 17:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Toronto,

I forgot about this one :

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=prodmatrix&access=LSE_L2!LSE_L2_UL

I haven't tried them out though so I don't know if this is exactly what you're looking for.

phils VL 17:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy - seems coupon proceeds not being converted and repatriated... if they are, definitely not firming the yen one bit...?? TP usd/jpy longs y/day in anticpation...one never really knows ...

usd/cad - long frm 1.3125 playing out nicely... 1.3255-1.3300 tmrw?

eur/usd - flat and reviewing my own thoughts..

Chicago YM 16:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 16:52 GMT February 18, 2004

Do you believe that the euro is headed south the rest of the week?

Dallas GEP 16:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, thank you for that confirmation. censored I am just guessing here. you KNOW!!! LOL

Oakland Daimyo 16:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon--Yen master-- You did it again. 106.30 USD/JPY Your quants "magic numbers" are truely magnets.

Barcelona JP 16:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I've shorted eur/usd at 1,2848. It don't seems to me that it's pull back is strong, so I think it could go down to 1,2715-1,2650. What do you think?

Dallas GEP 16:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
In retrospect. that USD/CAD short earlier WAS aggressive as I indicated but since it is relatively small possie I will just leave it open for time being. USD/CAD might see 1.3200 today of even 1.3220

Oakland Daimyo 16:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP--You are absolutely correct. 1.2820 should cap upside.

Dallas GEP 16:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, yeah upticks are getting shallower it seems though

Oakland Daimyo 16:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP--my first tgt was 1.2790/95, covered for +65pips and hunting for more. This could be the start of something. Still selling upticks.

beirut jb 16:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
$/cad break 13173, now 132 and toughest one 13220 test, 13220 unlikely today

Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Not getting alot of push UP on Euro. USD/CAD as a leading indicator is showing pretty USD bullish.

Miami OMIL 16:45 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I am on the boat with you GEP. You sure make your head counts fast lol. (/;->

sarasota jf 16:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Toronto Bogdan 16:38 GMT February 18, 2004
thats because he is representing the market too you - he can price really where he wants at any time and update the platform - if you had a multi bank platform you could stop that - but thats not for everyone - fx is really about credit in terms of pricing - gl

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GS, I am layering shorts now but I agree 1.2775 is fairly good support, I thought we might be on the break down run but not yet but SOON imo

Dallas GEP 16:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Stop on that Euro short needs to be ABOVE 1.2827

nc gs 16:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas hourly support at 1.2775 ish..better wait til that level gives b4 shorting...actually good r/r here to buy 1.2800 stop/reverse under 1.2770

Toronto Bogdan 16:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thank you everyone !!! I guess I can't realy see it then. My broker doesn't even show the volume of his own orders.

slv sam 16:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
do not forget my earlier post which was implying 150pips correction

slv sam 09:16 GMT February 18, 2004
to us$ bears..e/$ might correct to 1.2760 area but this is imho just another gift from the market so we can buy cheaper euro.GT

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks DAIMYO

beirut jb 16:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
here is my 128 break, still in half position as my looking profit 12835 was hit

$/cad should test now 13170 area,will close my long if failed

Dallas GEP 16:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Shorted fron 1.2792

sarasota jf 16:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
bogdan - u can get a retail system with a certain volume but thats a default not the real volume in the mkt - banks are the only ones with the real data that i think you are referring too

Oakland Daimyo 16:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP--No-- Work for self but have access to and often work with dealers for a chinese-backed FCM, CTA/CPO out here.

Memphis Charles 16:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Phils, thanks for 15:30 post.

Dallas GEP 16:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I just take a mental head count on who is going long and short and then act accordingly!!! LOL NOT!!!!!

Miami OMIL 16:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW if first support is gone on eur/usd as I commented earlier then 1.2750-45 is next on the list with a test of 1.2720-15 after that IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Ldn Mvs 16:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Toronto Bogdan 16:25
the depth of the mkt can usually be seen either on EBS and/or Reuters dealing - both tools are used by the big banks/brokerage houses and are not something which is readily available to the retail mkt........

Oakland Daimyo 16:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Toronto Bogdan--Proprietary info, but I do believe some of the good data providers are starting to offer this data. Try ESig

nyc jk 16:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
bogdan - I believe a couple platform providers may show that type of info for their particular firms, but it is so small that it is worthless. FX is a decentralized marketplace so there is no way to get that info from any one source. If you know people at banks/brokers etc you can get an indication from them what levels their orders are and in what amounts and what they are hearing around the market about other orders, etc. That is really the only way.

Toronto Bogdan 16:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo & nyc jk

Guys, please, for the third time - is there a way I can get the level 2 bid/ask volume info. It sounds to me that you guys can see the big buy and sell orders...HOW ?!...
Thank you A LOT !!!

Dallas GEP 16:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Nice Mailman!!! Great trade!!!

Dallas GEP 16:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, do you work for a platform provider???

Quezon Mailman 16:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/cad @1.3140 or 32pips profit booked. sidelined now.

Deauville Nico 16:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I won't let a garbage to those bears above 1.28, gold still above 413 and jpy crisis looks over.

Oakland Daimyo 16:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk-- I enjoy raiding the camp of weak handed specs, so for me watching the activity in those accts, especially those who are consistently wrong gives me an indication of buy/sell pressure. Many of these guys have a gambler mentality and they come back/ get burned again and again. Good consistent profits for us. If 90% fail, that means 10% collect the money from the majority. Contrary opinion at it's best.

beirut jb 16:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
strong bounce should be 30 pip at least from 128 level

128 likely to break

Dallas GEP 16:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm,,, Shallow first bounce it seems

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro new current low printed watch bounce off fig please.

nyc jk 16:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, that can be good information sometimes when someone all of a sudden steps up activity or amounts relative to what is normal for their account, agreed there. gl

SNP 16:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 05:21 GMT February 18, 2004
buying USD over its country cousins has yielded quite a lotta quarters - maybe i'll do my laundry this weekend ;-)

however BoJ in action makes me doubt if they anticipate another USD sell-off soon ?

time for breakfast ... whose buying ? ;-)

st. pete islander 16:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Yes, Gecko. I expect some overshooting, as the great bc often teaches, but it is going to be a nice long ride when it happens. Enjoy yourself. gl

Oakland Daimyo 16:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:03 GMT February 18, 2004

Excellent post. This is why I'm reluctant to post this data. I will keep in mind for future reference. I can't help but to take notice when they are hitting back to back.

Dallas GEP 16:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Took Profit on Euro Short @ 1.2824 for +29 PIPS

LA saint3 16:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys,

It seems US dollar is getting stronger !!!

Dallas GEP 16:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ON CAD position that is aggressive and I am taking it in layers

beirut jb 16:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:00 GMT

well i will give more chance to my short , looking to 128 break

but locking profit too

Dallas GEP 16:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Short usd/cad @ 1.3130

van Gecko 16:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hello islander.. hope you are fine.. still snoozing & snorkelling off the Strait of Taiwan..
looks like the Contis could get dumped soon..
gl

Belgium sidekick 16:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Toronto,

http://www.fxguide.net/

is a nice indicator

nyc jk 16:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 15:30 GMT February 18, 2004

Daimyo, not meant to criticise, but rather to give you some perspective having worked in FX trading for banks for over 10 years, while 3-5mio GBP would be a good sized trade in the context of an individual margin trader, it is pretty average in terms of the market overall and quite small compared to what many funds and corporate customers execute and the liquidity in the market. Really unless you are talking 50-100 mio or more, I would not characterize an amount as good sized. Many funds carry positions in the billions of GBP at any one time.

Dallas GEP 16:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SI. MOF never sleeps. There are always standing orders, There are INSIDER signals so as to indicate WHEN they will come in (NO, I am not privvy to them!!!)

Oakland Daimyo 16:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP this 1.2820 has been hard to take. But it will fold.

Dallas GEP 16:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
trailing stop @ 1.2843, just to protect profits

Toronto Bogdan 16:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo (and everybody else)

Can you please tell me where can you see the level 2 data (the size of bids or asks or orders comming into the market)? I wouldn't mind subscribing to that service...

Tokyo SI 15:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
are you sure that MOF boy is awake at this late time?

Dallas GEP 15:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I will close short EURO @ 1.2811, could go more

Dallas GEP 15:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SI:

Dallas GEP 15:11 GMT February 18, 2004
Looks like it's MOF boys turn.

Oakland Daimyo 15:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo SI--Tokyo Jon-- that's what happened the yen master.

Global-View 15:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo SI:

GVI 15:48 GMT February 18, 2004
Talk is that BOJ/MOF agents were buying $/yen

beirut jb 15:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo SI 15:49 GMT

if any news u should know it lol

I think just usual range, 105~107

Oakland Daimyo 15:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP-- You know it always starts like this.

Tokyo SI 15:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
someone know what happened on USD/yen? any news?

london p 15:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
think i was trying to say triple bottom duh in a row

Dallas GEP 15:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Well this is a hellofa FIGHT!!!!

london p 15:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1.0932 on gbp/usd has bounced there evry hourly candle
3 hours in a row

Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1,2830 to give soon IMO Bounce probably at least a shallow one from FIG

OK SZ 15:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Phils, VL...excellent post and thanks for the info...GT, GL

st. pete islander 15:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
van Gecko ..... Good to 'see' you. Noticed the "van" part .... back in Lotusland? Thanks again for GBP bluffs ... in process. gt

singapore sniper 15:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY, Daily 50 m.a. @106.50.. worth to profit take and turn short frm there...

van Gecko 15:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
a vely good tactical cross play here..

Oakland Daimyo 15:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Good sized supply hitting GBP/USD. I just saw 3-5 bucks. Looks like real money folks people.

phils VL 15:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hi folks - got back 30 minutes ago... although a zero sum game, stll hope that are more winners tha loosers today...

EUR/USD

My view again is euro has definitely 'peaked' - no new real money flow is involved with its upmove from 1.2335! What keeps it up last 4-5 weeks is clearly heavy weight comml specs who I must say have shown how much ammo they command. I must now adjust my recent bearish views to the extent that these heavy weights are capable of moving fx markets one way for long periods, notwithstanding that such moves are not backed by real money flows --as is the case now with eur/usd.
An interesting pattern unfolded since the recovery frm 1.2335 low -- sudden aggressive least expected push-ups by 120-190 pips in 1-2 hours that contradict basic technicals and over-run stops to support momentum, occuring usually between 2-4am, 10am-12pm (both NY times and 2 occasions only in Asian session). The aggressive push-ups are accompanied almost without fail by a Retracement of betwn 50-100%!!
Using their significant ammo, with the help of stops, and with especially PROFIT TAKING to add to their already sizeable command, they can repeat the reloads over and over again and move the market in one direction, provided there is no serious intervention to spoil the scheme of things! (Scheme here refers to collaboration and collusion by the largest interbank players - just take it frm me that it exists)
Of course nothing remains forever and I see some signs that the going is getting tougher for these guys as the levels become more and more overbought and sellers become rare and get 'special ' treatment. From the trading point of view I have to contend with the fact that the same specs are capable of moving the market higher if there is consensus, and as long as there is no intervention. The style will be the same sudden aggressive push-ups, then a 50% or more retracement that follows in the next turn.
Until I see 2 lows lower than the last low, my suggestion is to swing trade profitably with upward bias for the time being. Longers need less stop loss and shud not hesitate to take profit when riding the sudden up moves as you can expect the retracement of least 50% as a general guide. Shorters can ride the retracement wave down, but need larger stop loss if you are not with the down wave from the sudden moves up. Notwithstanding, technicals are still important and I see some shrt and intermediate oscillators converging at the high an waiting for the kick of the cliff. Technically this shud happen within the next 1-3 days, but as said the heavy weights can make nonsense of the techs if they are left free to do so.

apologies for this lengthy one...

GL GT

Nottingham 15:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Can see 106.60/70 without creating too much damage, but whether it holds or not will depend on BoJ...if above then maybe looking at 108

Dallas GEP 15:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Looks like these BIDS @ 1.2840 are getting eaten up.

slv sam 15:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP /
yes Dallas it was $/y selling at 106.08.GT

Chambery FR JFB 15:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw :-) Online Pivot Point calculator here :
http://www.stelaronline.com/resource/pivot.htm

Happy trades :-)

Dallas GEP 15:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sam you are confusing the newbies!!! LOL You SOLD USD/JPY right????

Barcelona Jp 15:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If that is to be the case, I'll place S/L at 1,2870

singapore sniper 15:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
agree in eur, break below 1.2835 gone !!

slv sam 15:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
bought yen ..target 102.50.GT

singapore sniper 15:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
esp in the nzd, will break 0.7055, follow 0.7020... major reversal to 0.6920. Daily showing bearish sign

Barcelona JP 15:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I think that, if eur/usd breaks 1,2834,is a sell

london cam 15:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY just touched 106.04. Seems the goalposts are moving

Ldn Mvs 15:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Heads-up - aud; kiwi; and cad all coming off here for momo - cud be precursor for bout of US$ strength - hv seen this pattern emerge many a time!!

usa monster 15:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ict ml

usa monster 15:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
i think two best people on cable r
ict and farmasia

Deauville Nico 15:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 15:07 GMT February 18, 2004

I take good note of that. Thanx. I'll begin to doubt about my certitudes if gold gets 413 and aud/usd 0.7955

usa monster 15:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 15:07
how u see cable from here
long or short
and whats ur target in short term(next 24 hours)
thx
hope u reply

Dallas GEP 15:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Looks like it's MOF boys turn.

ICT ML 15:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Ideally we need to hang out down here between 1.9015-70 and 201.20-70 areas for the next several hours to get the OB status unwound before trying another push higher....but some of my more bold gbp playing friends are not wanting to wait it seems.....

patience guys.....

Oakland Daimyo 15:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:54 GMT February 18, 2004
---They don't want to listen.
Deauville Nico 14:04 GMT February 18, 2004
–--Bear hibernation is over. Cave whatever. Do not mistake silence for weakness--
EUR/USD buyers must be able to support 1.2860 with strength (not likely at this point) to have any chance of moving higher GT to all

Chambery FR JFB 15:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HELSINKI JAK 14:41 GMT February 18, 2004
Sounds interesting... :-) May I get it as well? TIA
f
Thanks

van Gecko 15:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
The lack of bounce back over 1.2880 after 1.29 was seen is a good indication that momentum bulls of size had spent their ammos for the day.. closing under 1.2880 will form the index & left fingers of a potential daily sell fractal reversal formation from a major monthly level..
Cable pushers are trying hard to hold gbp/jpy above 200/01 in hope of squeezing a few more pips.. a weekly close above 200 is still crucial for bulls hoping for a straight up shot above 1.91..
Cheerios

Belgium sidekick 14:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hey Helsinki Jak,

cool! You can send it to [email protected]

Thanks.

slv sam 14:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
to dedicated euro bulls please see again my earlier post

slv sam 09:16 GMT February 18, 2004
to us$ bears..e/$ might correct to 1.2760 area but this is imho just another gift from the market so we cant buy cheaper euro.GT

Deauville Nico 14:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Yeah! even if one's can almost palp the pressure, dollar is good to sell!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USA Monster
LOL.
sorry.. I forgot that yahoo today.
really busy today.
sorry.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I think nice swing for gbp/usd and eur/usd now.
good for buy again.
thanks.

HELSINKI JAK 14:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Belgium sidekick
i have a pivot calculator that calculates pivot to 3levels
give me your e-mail and i can send it to you.
r3
r2
r1
p
s1
s2
s3

Belgium sidekick 14:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
London,

closing is based on previous 24hrs or 8hrs

Toronto Bogdan 14:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - The big guys just started the second wave of selling

Nottingham 14:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
CAD...asian/early london session underperformed euro, but since then made efforts to correct this by holding its own in front of some $ strength...recent strength might have come from foreign inflow figures, which although less than expected, fuzzy logic argues that any CAD outflows prior to expected rate cut early March may have, in a large part, already been made...nearterm, seems to be well bid at 1.3070/85 as well as the 50 day sma which comes in at the fig...theres a shs formation on the daily chart and yesterday we got our first close below the neck (an attempt was made on 13/02 but pair staged a rally late on and closed above) so a close below there today ought to give the confidence required to take out support at 1.3070/85 and stops under 1.3040/50...today neckline comes in at 1.3151...a move above yesterdays high of 1.3173, if seen, might well see an accelerated move higher 1.32/1.3220...gl gt

London FX newbie 14:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Belgium sidekick 14:10
Hi! Just a stupid question....what is the closing rate, as for currencies they're more like continous. is it the current price?
For instance cable
Hi 1.9140
Lo 1.9030
Closing 1.9052

TIA

Warwick Sat 14:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Moscow, maybe a small numbers error in your last post ? TIA

Sofia QIP 14:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP// As far as EUR/USD is concerned I prefer to call it a NO break rather than a false break as it bounced off the rising weekly intermediate resistance channel drawn throu the 1.2775 january high. At the same time the wide rising 4H February channel from 1.235 is still intact on the downside above 1.2780 so closing today at/near/over the current high of 1.2925 can not be ruled out. Next week the weekly resistance is projected to come at 1.297.

Sydney alimin 14:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
does this now look like a consolidation before big fireworks for eur/usd?

Moscow Hawk 14:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
As for the bigger picture like or do not like but it is difficult to argue that we have seen extension of uptrend in EUR/USD. New historical high for the pair was marked though a marginal one. It is understandable that many traders look at weekly and monthly charts and see that many indicators are in even more extreme zones they were near the historically lows and warn of possible reversal in the future. But long term charts do not give any guarantee that the price will not move 200 – 500 higher before reversal takes place. In my opinion not trying to predict the future and just following the market is the best way to be OK.

For me inability of EUR/USD to hold 1.2780-10 today will be the sign of euro weakness and more downside in sight. But while euro manages to hold it can still surprise despite the intraday overbought levels.

usa monster 14:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo Raden_masand
master
ur yahoo is off

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 14:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd before move down just now when make high today at 1.2926 give sign that price will get 1.3020 (top)
buy !!
usd/chf will down to get 1.2106

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 14:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
friends.. be carefull with dominou effect for gbp/usd now.
confidence to get 1.9136 (top minor) and seen will get higher at 1.9166.

Gen dk 14:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 14:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
RE: Eur/GBP. It seems to me they will be MORE people willing to long GBP against the dollar than they would be longing the Euro against the dollar which tell us EUR/GBP still has some downward bias to it. I wouldn't be surprised to see .6700 eur/gbp by week's end.

Deauville Nico 14:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 14:08 GMT February 18, 2004
Sure! and this volativity was strong enough yesterday to make me think about release ballast...

Quezon Mailman 14:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
goodness goose! its now back to where it took off earlier. how fast and furious! But another stab higher still possible in the coming hours.

Dallas GEP 14:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Mailman I meant 1.3085 NOT 1,3185 on the downside

beirut jb 14:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ update,

hourly did reverse to short, made 40 pip south but didnt make
second lo yet

short favorite here intraday with stop above 12885

GLGT

Belgium sidekick 14:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I use following formula for pivots in an excel sheet :

pivot:= (high + low + close) / 3;
r1:= 2*pivot - low;
s1:= 2*pivot - high;
r2:= pivot + (r1-s1);
s2:= pivot - (r1-s1);
r3:= high - (2 * (low - pivot));
s3:= low - (2 * (high - pivot));
sm1:=(pivot+s1)/2;
sm2:=(s1+s2)/2;
sm3:=(s2+s3)/2;
rm1:=(pivot+r1)/2;
rm2:=(r1+r2)/2;
rm3:=(r2+r3)/2;

Dallas GEP 14:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I think At this point in time the break of 1.29 again especially in US session will be VERY difficult. I see a narrow range of 1.2880 to 1.2820 with 1.2850 being the rough pivot point. How do you guys feel????

Sydney alimin 14:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hahaha well put nico, we love volatility dont we? all cbs must be unhappy about this volatility

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 14:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd have given signal to get 1.9107
be carefull with your selling position.

Newcastle GH 14:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade
Knez
http://www.pivotpoints.co.uk/ This will give you a reasonable calculator to play with. There are better but I cannot remember where at the moment.

Deauville Nico 14:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
This is the same scenario than yesterday...bears go out and yell enough to freak out some bulls then get back in their caves...

Dallas GEP 14:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Mailman, I think USD/CAD will see at least 1.3140 today, We could see @ 1.3185 as well.

Quezon Mailman 14:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Welcome back Dallas-GEP. Just want to know your views on usd/cad. I am still holding my long position 1.3108, as I see quite strong level of support 1.3070-80. thanks again!

Belgrade Knez 13:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle GH

I have visit his site, but will search on the net.
Cheers.

Newcastle GH 13:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez

Go to tradingsmarts.com Peter Bain uses pivot points for his trading methods and claims success. If you simply search on the web for pivot points you will find loads of info and even free calculators.

HOU 13:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
www.knovawave.com Pivot points, TA etc

Dallas GEP 13:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Friends, haven't been with you the last 5-6 hours BECAUSE my internet provider decides to ROUTINE maintenance for the last 5 hours!!!

Anyhow, MELBOURNE last night posted that he thought 1.29 break was a false one and NOTTY posted up after he felt that way as well and that something wasn't right. I posted up I thought it wasn't a false break in response to MELBOURNE's post. After NOTTY posted, I got to thinking, Hey I probably am WRONG and they are RIGHT and I posted up and closed all my dollar short positions.

Then it looks like EU comes in and drives Euro down over 50 PIPS after in my opinion filtering in sell orders @ 1.2920/25. Also IMO when MORE buy orders came in then EU fired the cannon shot and shorted down the EURO.

The bottom line is had it not been for MELBOURNE's and NOTTY's post, I wouldn't have re-evaluated my own possie. THIS is what the forum is all about in my view. Exchanging ideas and if yours seems wrong then perhaps trying someone else's.

BTW I am short from 1.2853 on Euro BUT I may be a little premature


Belgrade Knez 13:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Guys,
Anybody can recommend good site to learn about Pivot Points?
TIA
Cheers.

Chambery FR JFB 13:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 13:39 GMT February 18, 2004
Thx :-)

Quezon Mailman 13:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks raden for your email. Good work again!

Deauville Nico 13:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
bought some aud/usd, tight stop 0.7945

Stockholm za 13:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FR JFB >> ema ( 21,55, 89 & 144 ) is always my specrtum on pull back/ advance & traps... personal use and interpretation over the different time frames... eg..You see the lines.. I see the bands...
HM.. no acquaintance........
Happy trades.....

Deauville Nico 13:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
End of downtrend IMO, nothing justifies a fall under yesterday'lows on euro.
GT

Moscow Hawk 13:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I think there was no serious pain for EUR/USD bulls from the moment when it spurted from 1.25 to 1.27 on Friday. On the contrary the EUR/USD bears. New days bring the new highs and higher lows for the pair to them. Some were stopped out about 1.29 today. EUR/USD is currently trading higher when it was yesterday when the euro was declared almost dead by some players here. Think euro bulls trailed stops in comfortable zone and will book profits anyway. As for euro bears it is not clear yet while 1.2780-10 limits downside.

Good luck

melbourne farmacia 13:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks guys.

sarasota jf 13:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia 63 low

Tor Pumpkin 13:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
aud low on dealing was 63

melbourne farmacia 13:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Low on aussie please 60 / 61 ? cheers.

Toronto Bogdan 13:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland - where do you see that info - is there a way to see bids and asks volumes (sort of like a level 2 for stocks)?

melbourne 13:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
with a daily top now in place, a quick move by GBP down to 1.8900 is quite possible for today.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with gbp/usd when at 1.9035. maybe price move up from here to get 1.9230 (top)

Oakland Daimyo 13:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I'm going dark here as my phone is ringing off the hook. They're already mad at me for giving away the trick last night.

Melbourne Qindex 13:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT February 17, 2004
USD/CHF : 3-Day Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2147 // 1.2250* - 1.2353* - 1.2457* // ... 1.2664 ...

The mid-point reference of 1.2147 - 1.2250 is 1.2198.


Sydney alimin 13:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
thx raden, got ur email

hk ab 0.66 13:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur profit stop total 77 pips. sideline.

Oakland Daimyo 13:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1 buck = $1mm (million) USD so big bucks take a guess maybe 10 (usual size)

LDN SAM 13:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
OAKLAND DAIMYO: What do U mean "big bucks..."????

Gen dk 13:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.66 13:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
move eur trail to 1.2833

hk ab 0.66 13:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nt, did you SAR gbp?

Oakland Daimyo 13:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: 1.2820 is next EUR/USD sell signal which also means pain threshold for bulls, soo watch out.

Global-View 13:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

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Oakland Daimyo 13:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Give it a few minutes to feel the affect.

Oakland Daimyo 13:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Big "bucks" going through on the downside EUR/USD

hk ab 0.66 13:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
trail eurshort at 1.2840 for the lot at 1.2845 and 1.2858 for the lot at 1.2895.

keep dlr/chflong.

Salzburg lm 13:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon, took your trade of the day 30 point stoploss Eur/Yen, now what?

Quezon Mailman 13:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:02 GMT February 18, 2004

Hi Raden. just got back. What is your short-term outlook for the euro/usd? Looks like it is a start of a major reversal - downwards? thanks.

Gen dk 13:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Swiss DG 13:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raden,
Do you have any comments about USD/CHF. Do you still epxect it to go head toward 1.2340 or higher?
TIA.
Dan

L.A. Igrok 13:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I disagree but don't want to argue. 115 is ahead of 100 in time on my screen. Will see.

Toronto Bogdan 13:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
'Morning!
Anyone knows what happend to euro? Why up between 1 and 2 am est, then down a lot since?...

london cam 13:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia Gamber 12:59 GMT February 18, 2004
Yes the probability of a further move is slightly higher now but I'm still waiting. Have a read of Athens' recent posts. I share his sentiments

Quezon Mailman 13:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hello trading comrades! The goose seems to be sailing faster now. The 3 consecutive day-lows unbroken at this point signals short-term bullishness.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hello.
have a nice you get sell position at 1.2926.
sorry friends fro big file for today of my sending.

shanghai bc 13:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

The reason why BOJ is spending several yards a day almost every day is not because of huge inter-bank specs but simply because of real money coming home for some good reasons..IMM specs are hardly an issue in Yen market,at best being a flee on the tail of an elephant..Fwiw..

hk ab 0.66 12:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Holy beast

Saudi Arabia Gamber 12:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
london cam

Eur$ is getting down now!. I think if this hour closed in 1.2840, it will go down more.

comments

GENEVA FHR 12:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Igrok Ref JPY those who shorted 6 mths ago have only lost 60
pips which means ard 10 pips per month .This is nothing and their average price is now 114.40. They have time to see the future

Chambery FR JFB 12:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 12:37 GMT February 18, 2004
"ema 55 ( 30 min ) " Excuse-me za, am not sure to get you here :-( EMA55 is where we are now right? (btw, just love henning mankel, a compatriot of yours :-) GT

london sn 12:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
uk bob 08:53 GMT good to see you again.
excellent GBP/USD trades from 1.63, hope you will post your views again. thanks

Chambery FR JFB 12:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Thx all :-) I appreciate :-) Happy trades...

Gen dk 12:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SA getFX 12:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 12:26 GMT > My 2 cents: see post 06:56

L.A. Igrok 12:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
It seems to me than there could be a problem on the USD/JPY to extend its lossess despite all the good Japanese GDP numers and general USD weakness. The problem is that with the number of speculative short USD/JPY positions which are near the record high, the keeping of those positions open is not free. Sitting on the USD/JPY shorts means paying rollover fees while the market is going nowhere because of the BOJ controlling the bottom side of it.Those who shorted USD/JPY at around 115 almost 6 month ago ahve already lost a significant chunk of profit by now. If they added on their shorts at lower levels then their situation is even worse. It seems to me that the "break even" point for a majority of speculators is near 109.00. If USD/JPY goes higher then they will ha no choice but to liquidate those positions in order to prevent their net profits turning into losses. While day by day are passing by with no extention in the trend ,the probability for a massive liqudation of USD/JPY short increases. In such case it is likely to cause a very sharp correction towards the neckline of the huge H&S formation at around 115. My bet is on the probability that we will see 115 before we see 100.

Oakland Daimyo 12:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sell uptick strat in focus. Mkt under 1.2860 is bearish for EUR/USD

Oakland Daimyo 12:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB 12:26 I see nothing until 1.9000 also. This area is very strong so I would pull the plug on short operations quickly.
Mind quick. Hands loose.

Oakland Daimyo 12:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I guess I tipped my hand on that one. NP Same strategy Different Tactic

Stockholm za 12:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FR JFB ,,,,,,,,, ema 55 ( 30 min ) spred........ as always....
Happy trades.....

Gen dk 12:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland Daimyo 12:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens 12:31 Thanks will keep in mind.

GVI john 12:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2840…$/yen 105.80
DJIA +14 pts… 10-yr 4.02%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI...

Athens 12:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
...however, further nervous moves shouldn't be ruled out this week. I am not still recommending building up EUR/$ shorts on downticks, not yet.

SA getFX 12:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro pivot at 1.2825 was almost touched. US traders may want another bite up from here. Lets see... (No guarantees!) :)

Athens 12:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Feeling even more comfortable now with what I posted at 08:01 today.

hong kong nt 12:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- entered 2nd position at 1.9088, 3rd position will be 1.9288 (if any)...

Chambery FR JFB 12:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi all :-) Am short gbp from 1.9130, it just broke a t/l on 30' chart, I have the next target @1.9008 (ema100/30'). Does anybody have another hurdle before that level plz? TIA

london cam 12:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon
Is your GBPJPY trade still valid? I didn't catch it initially and was wondering if your view still stands
GL GT

Oakland Daimyo 12:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1st Tgt 1.2790 no less, will consider adding on break of this level looking to build position into the 1.29 to 1.2330 range strategy.

Gen dk 12:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 0.66 12:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
readjust aud/nzd SAR at 1.1298

Oakland Daimyo 12:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Move under 9083 from above GBP/USD Cable is bearish short term signal.

hk ab 0.66 12:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nh, these erratic excessive move is already a crisis.

Livingston nh 12:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Looking at Japanese GDP and the obvious interventionist policies of the MoF to avoid currency consequences of this growth, intervention by the ECB should be directed against the yen (more of a chance of US help) -- these distortions will snap the market in a crisis

hk ab 0.66 12:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I really look forward the dlr/jpy to resolve soon, no matter which direction and my bet is that many baby follower will join

Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT February 18, 2004
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2627 ... 1.2732 ... 1.2767 // 1.2785 - 1.2803 - 1.2820 - 1.2838 - 1.2856 .... (1.2926) // 1.2943 ...

hk ab 0.66 12:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nt, tried to do some m/t short here but seems the sharks are not tired yet. First crunch GBP then EUR.

Oakland Daimyo 12:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Yea Jon push that USD/JPY Looks like party train anytime now. I see nothing until at least 105.99

Melbourne Qindex 12:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... // 1.2820 - 1.2838 - 1.2856 - 1.2873 // ...

Oakland Daimyo 12:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo Jon-- The GBP/USD EUR/USD divergence I was discussing earlier has worked itself out and now both boats are floating down river.

hk ab 0.66 11:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nt, the money pushed this gbp up to the sky is very HOT.
GL.

I am thinking whether take the loss on the gbp short or not.
Just take profit from the aud/nzd short
will SAR if this pair is above 1.1310(bid)

Tokyo Jon 11:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USDJPY trying the upward swing targeting 106.30

Tokyo Jon 11:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
entered buy position prematurely at 201.78(bid)

hong kong nt 11:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- building new GBP longs above 1.9100 (triangle breakout obj) may be as dangerous as walking on wires high in the sky...

beirut jb 11:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ update,

hourly need o close under 12861 to reverse to short,

yesterday hourly gave a false signal, unlikely to do it 2 straight time,

until then euro is good buy if this level hold, but printing 12929
i a thin market and within a dead zone time let me think that euro should reverse here

GL GT

Tokyo Jon 11:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY trade for the day,
buy at 201.70 (bid), target 203.50, stop 201.40

cover position at initial target, then place trailing stop 20 pips away and target secondary level at 204.43

melbourne farmacia 11:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 07:21 GMT February 18, 2004
Nice cable trade Hat. gt

Melbourne Qindex 11:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.2787 - 1.2882 is 1.2835.

Sydney alimin 11:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
expect more downward pressure for eur/usd if 1.2850 is broken as more stop losses are triggered

Melbourne Qindex 11:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:43 GMT February 17, 2004
EUR/USD : My weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is vibrating between the critical level at 1.2787 - 1.2882 for the time being. The mid-point reference of 1.2787 - 1.2882 is 1.2835. My 3-day cycle charts also suggest that the market can easily move between 1.2778 - 1.2840 - 1.2901, since all these 3-day cycle quantised levels have the same frequency number. It would be a negative sign if the market can penetrate through the projected supporting level at 1.2778 - 1.2787.

Oakland Daimyo 11:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
The door opens at 1.2860 for further correction to 1.28 before stronger support around 1.27

Oakland Daimyo 11:43 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
The raid is on in EUR/USD.

Tokyo Jon 11:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
the GBPJPY has past my initial target at 201.80, it is now heading to 203.57. It is likely to pull back to 201.85 again before pressing ahead tonight.

Tokyo Jon 11:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hiya

Nottingham 11:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...I have heard that retail accounts are net long eurusd (based on recent data)...that means the average punter bearish $ which I suppose isn't a good sign for $ bears

hk ab 0.66 11:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Let's how long does it take the last eur cross to reverse, eurjpy.

hk ab 0.66 11:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
For my short aud/nzd, I am looking for 1.1150 or below.

hk ab 0.66 11:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
For my short aud/nzd, I am looking for 1.1150 or below.

london cam 11:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia Gamber 11:18 GMT February 18, 2004
Personally I ignore the published recommendations. Until the EURUSD convincingly breaks today's low, I don't see any evidence to suggest it will move to anywhere near 1.2620. But that is just my opinion. I'm sure others on the forum will differ.
GL

Melbourne Qindex 11:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 1.2857.


Melbourne Qindex 22:00 GMT February 17, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2609 ... 1.2764 // 1.2795 - 1.2826 - 1.2857 - (1.2888) -1.2919 // 1.2950 ...

Saudi Arabia Gamber 11:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
london cam
Thank u for ur reply.

Most of the recommendations published are expecting another downtrend in the eur$ to 1.2620 and then the upmove will resume from there to get 1.30/35.
is this downtrend is now? what do u think?
IMO US opening will make it down today atleast to 1.2700!

any comments

madrd val 11:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
anyone can tell low eurusd in this push?

hk ab 0.66 11:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
REVERSE all aud/nzd longs here! short at 1.1259 3 lots.

london cam 11:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia Gamber 11:06 GMT February 18, 2004
IMHO. the best advice is - exercise patience. wait and see.

melbourne 11:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf is the front runner for the up comming dollar bounce

hk ab 0.66 11:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
bc, seems you are interested to flex your muscle now? on eur?

hk ab 0.66 11:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
year of Monkey.

Saudi Arabia Gamber 11:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hi guys
I missed the action on eur$ and gbp$ this morning. What is the best advice now?

Gen dk 11:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HKG SK 11:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai

You think we are not going to see 1.30 Euro today but how about tomorrow.

Do you think we will see a fall in the Euro and to what level?

Thanks in advance

shanghai bc 10:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

day-high,not day-low..Apologies..

shanghai bc 10:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

We may have seen the day-low for Eur/Usd for today having visited 1.29 level at least once..Fwiw..

Quezon Mailman 10:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Get fx, dc, thanks for your feed. simple hi/low will be fine. I was able to access my charts now. I have an open posn. at usd/cad 1.3108 since yesterday (US market). I think if 1.3065/1.3077/1.3084 previous lows will hold, we may have a good take off today for the lonely goose.

SA getFX 10:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Bucharest & Quezon > Ss figures given by me ara based on Simple, High/Low. Exponential/Close will differ. Quezon, pse state which you want.

HK [email protected] 10:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If gold will break 417-418 recent HI. We may have a price-run to 429 (chart formation) or even to prev. Hi. of 430.5. Wonder if currencies will follow in case.

bucharest dc 10:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
i wonder if someone else comes with other figures :)

SA getFX 10:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD Ss 5,3,3 = 65.8120 65.2942

bucharest dc 10:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
60.0078/59.5115

Quezon Mailman 10:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Good day fellow traders! I am having trouble accessing my charts. Favor please. Slow stochs (5-5-3) for 1-hr chart of usd/cad at this time. I appreciate your feedback. thanks.

hk ab 0.66 10:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Daiymo, u r right.

Oakland Daimyo 09:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I have found that being glued to the screen is detrimental to my trading so I'm going to take a break, be back later, GT to all. Nottingham and others take it easy.

Dublin Flip 09:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
considering it was arguabally the most pubcally touted rate hike in living memory it would be surprising their would be much dissent in the vote to be honest. When a trend is on everything takes on sympathetic overtones.

Oakland Daimyo 09:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Ok we should see some action in Cable.

Oakland Daimyo 09:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Quick raids are slowing, shorts should be careful of their stops, we might see squeeze higher. Momentum pointing down but volume still high. Momentum leads price. Lack of progress to the downside is interesting (Keep in mind- cut and run is key component when doing raids- that's why I use reverses-not automatic)

Vilnius george 09:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
BOE Feb 4/5 Minutes Show 9-0 For 1/4-point Hike

london 09:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
have raised my stop on CAD to B/e i.e. 1.3096 gts

Oakland Daimyo 09:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Please note, I believe in non-linear dynamics (Science of Complexity) so the why question is unimportant to me, every effect does not have a corresponding cause in a complex system like financial mkts. I'm incorporating Wyckoff principles in order to better understand the motives of the "composite operator" and to filter out some of the info that fractals (and other traditional TA) give. Follow the footprints of those who dominate mkts. Walk through the door soon after them. Support and Resis Levels are like doors, we open 1st, then Look around, if nobody is there we walk through, if a big Bear (Bull) sitting there, we slam the door back shut and get the H out of there. If you opened the door and someone was holding a big gun in your face what would you do? sorry for the long post

Rivonia PipPirate 09:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
london 09:05 I dunno, I may be stupid, but anyone who can offer 80% return, with a straight face, gets my thumbs up. Sammy my £10k is in the post.

slv sam 09:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
to us$ bears..e/$ might correct to 1.2760 area but this is imho just another gift from the market so we cant buy cheaper euro.GT

Ldn pm 09:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888 - OK noted, thanks for the info & GL

nyc jk 09:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry London, I misunderstood your post. I agree with your view on the $/CAD btw, looks like getting ready to move very soon.

Oakland Daimyo 09:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
uk bob 08:53---Excellent analysis, my suspicion as well. That is why I have sat on my hands during the most recent upmove eventhough it was making massive upside progress. We should get another opp for buying strats if this is truely continuation. At some point R/R and probability must rule the day. Not willing to chase trades.

london 09:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
i don't want to start a flame war, but we brits like to laugh at anything, i thought the email address i included was alluding to that. you yanks take everything to literally. sorry

Eilat Dolphin 09:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Nemo/ ...Sorry, the Banzaï was a Bonzaï.

nyc jk 08:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
london 08:49 GMT

the guy is clearly violating US securities laws regarding required risk disclosure statements and solicitation rules, so why do you say not to be so hard on him?

ZP Nemo 08:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Eilat
not Banzay, ooooops only:)

Eilat Dolphin 08:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Banzaï...

SA getFX 08:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Tight pennant in Euro...

Ldn 08:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Latest f/x developments are likely to set off a few alarm bells at the ECB, esp as QUADEN warned o/n that further Euro appreciation is not desirable. He qualified the statement by reiterating that the ECB has no level which it deems as a "pain threshold", but said that "significant" strengthening would not be welcome

uk bob 08:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hi all, been on holiday mode since cashing in all my gbp/usd longs at 1.75
Oakland 8:32, if you beleive the euro is in distribution then gbp is unlikely to be in "re-accumulation @ cycle high here" smart money in the gbp market don't make a habit of buying @ cycle highs

london 08:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
btw, put the stop at 1.3080, from the present level of 1.3096 this represents a good r/r. gts

london 08:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hey guys, don't me so hard on 80%[email protected], i mean, everyone should be given a chance. of course, he's not getting any of my dough! CAD is ready to take off from here. some good consolidation over the last few 4hour bars suggests 1.3150 as a minimum target with a trailing stop once this is hit. gts

LAX-LGB SNP 08:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
LA S.O 07:37 GMT February 18, 2004

P.S. i'm willing to trade your sorry butt for maximum profit - bend over backwards so we can start ! haha

LAX-LGB SNP 08:45 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USDCHF needs to stay below 1.22 for another 20-40 mins so we can deduce USD fate till this weekend

HK 8888 08:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
London pm
I hear what you are saying, and normally would agree with you, but I can assure you they have had no one in office.
Doesn't exclude call lvls etc, but that is not their way normally.

nyc jk 08:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
lol Dan, very true. cheers jk, daimyo

Oakland Daimyo 08:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk-- Yeah checkout the yahoo address. Red Flag right there.

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 08:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 08:29
Ignore that fella. he is a well known con artist in this forum. Jay normaly deletes his postings. He must have been caught napping this time.

Swiss DG 08:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk,
These are Nigerian stories...
Dan

Oakland Daimyo 08:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If going long with underlying current, ammo might be better put to use in GBP/USD as this one seems unstoppable. Still not convinced but I've missed this one completely. GT
FWIW: This one appears to be re-accumulation @ cycle high instead of distribution like EUR/USD. Maybe buy opp on some type of dip. This divergence will play itself out. All boats should move together. which one is telling the truth. Only time will tell.

warsaw mach 08:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Yesterday, someone was saying that market is protecting huge options with range barriers 1.23 - 1.29 . I wonder what is the story today, another option?

Do you want to know the level for EUR/USD? "Show me your stop loss and I'll tell you the level" It will drop when all players are censored.

nyc jk 08:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
LA S.O 07:37 GMT

80% profits per month GUARANTEED? Soliciting for managed account clients on a public internet forum? You may not have any suckers , er traders interested in your services but I am sure the CFTC and the SEC will be interested to know your email sir................

beirut jb 08:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 08:18

indeed mate,

when too much tech indicators point to some direction often
market goes other way,

in fact according to my experience : too much signals = very few signals
2 of them r bad

Oakland Daimyo 08:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
They leave through the door first but leave footprints for us to follow.

Oakland Daimyo 08:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
The buy pressure is strong but I'm not sure if strong enough. Price movement (result) without maximum effort (volume) is good way of tracking elephants, whales, whatever you want to call them.

hk ab 0.66 08:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
without option protection these eur shorts are hard to be maintained.

hk ab 0.66 08:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
without option protection these eur shorts are hard to be maintained.

Ldn pm 08:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888 - If there is profit to be taken or business to be done I'm sure the RBI would find staff willing to come in on a holiday

Oakland Daimyo 08:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
beiruit jb 08:12---Thanks. The point of the most danger is the point of minimum risk. Will wait till we see before next round.

Kaunas DP 08:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
raden,
silver has reached yours 6.855 during Asia session - what next - consolidation above 6.7 - TIA

Rivonia PipPirate 08:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
LA(gosh) S.O 07:37 Please send details to imafoolfor [email protected]

hk ab 0.66 08:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
That ECB member alone brought such a serious effect from his comment?

Geez.... Another AG.

beirut jb 08:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens 08:01 GMT

hi mate,

yes so far they only took stop above 129,actualy i thought above 12920 whould be safe but the hit me lol

anyway i would buy stop 12940, coz next strong resistance is only at 131.6
and sell 12930 area if tested again and failed

GL GT

saloniko 2004 nk 08:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning all..

Good Morning 1.2888...


Now we are well entering always in my opinion in 1.2850-1.3058 area..

Above 1.3058 another area more tight will be on the cards as said in my last post..

nk

Nottingham 08:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 08:06 GMT

Yes that was a great shame...it is an excellent buy on fresh lows...stilll the day is long and maybe a chance comes later...gl gt

sarasota jf 08:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - i dont have a clear view - i did not expect 85 to be taken out - given the sellers there yesterday - when those other guys sell its like the mkt friday -they take days to buy and a few hours to sell or vice versa

Miami OMIL 08:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry to impose on your generosity Athens but do you have any levels of support at the moment for eur/usd? (/;-> tia

hk ab 0.66 08:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
note the cad didn't follow the majors....

mex sjs 08:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
LA Igrok, what's your view on usdchf, if you are around, TIA

Melbourne Qindex 08:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market doesn't have enough momentum to complete one quantised step at this moment, from 1.2882 to 1.2977. The mid-point reference of 1.2882 - 1.2977 is 1.2930.

hk ab 0.66 08:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
jf, Athens mentioned that we either put or push the eur. Now it's time for them (ECB) to let us know.

Do you know MR. S is still holding the 2nd half?

Athens 08:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
As thought. The price action thus far supports the view expressed here by me and others in previous days, namely that we are not in front of a beginning of a new EUR/$ uptrend but rather in the last stages of the end of an older long lasting trend (with or without the ECB). The market just hit the obvious stops mentioned yesterday. A first projected resistance I had at 1.2935 capped the earlier spike (not reached actually), while a move to the high 1.29's cannot be precluded, however I would look at it as a selling case. Good luck and bifn.

HK 8888 08:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
sarasota
unlikely to be him today, they are away on holiday.

hk ab 0.66 07:57 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
if pairs to choose to long usd, long chf first?
1.2200 filled and 1.2895 filled as well.

Oakland Daimyo 07:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry , EUR/USD. Do not try short with Cable. Far too much buy pressure in that one.

Kaunas DP 07:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
100% NY will test it
GL

sarasota jf 07:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hk 8888 - i heard its bk india that sold eur

Miami OMIL 07:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If 1.2925 holds for eur/usd then a pullback to around 1.2845-50, 1.2820-25 and 1.2795-1.2800 rough estimates. With support seen now at 1.2800-05, 1.2745-50 and 1.2715-20. These pullbacks are important for the Bull Run. If too much then the bears may take control. If there is not enough then the bulls may run out of gas before breaking 1.30’s IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Deauville Nico 07:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Almaty G7 07:44 GMT February 18, 2004

Right now a red zone for the bullish trend is under 1.2850

Melbourne Qindex 07:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market doesn't have enough momentum to complete one quantised step at this moment, from 1.2882 to 1.2977. The mid-point reference of 1.2882 - 1.2877 is 1.2930.

Nairobi Tn 07:50 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888 07:41
Thanks fo the info. Nice trades to you.

Kaunas DP 07:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
to me eur beast was killed for the day

SA getFX 07:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 07:44 GMT > ?

Almaty G7 07:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I think, if EUR can close any hour under 1.2865, we may see corrective to 1.28-1.2760 zone... Any ideas?

Oakland Daimyo 07:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I'm tracking the elephants. Stampede setting up.

HK 8888 07:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi

Various European CB's rang up London interbank players and sold eur/usd to them at 1.2910/20, which caused the scramble lower...not because of the volume they sold, but because of them showing their faces.

Oakland Daimyo 07:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Test. Holding Line. Sellers in control. Big guns in play. Careful people.

Miami OMIL 07:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW with the indicators in O/B territory on the eur/usd and the bollinger band about to bust at the top I believe that there has to be a pullback on the breakout. This could be a false breakout. If 1.2900 area is not sustained then a more intense pullback will be in order IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

MONACO OGA 07:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 18/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2905), 85 pips higher than on Tuesday. Yesterday EUR/USD jumped from 1,2760 to 1,2870 on renewed USD selling pressure after last friday's knee jerk reaction. Closing in NY was around 1,2840. Overnight the pair hovered around 1,2860 level before breaking higher and taking the much advertised 1,29 level (high 1,2930) ahead of european open. Price action is on line with our bullish view. A break of 1,29 could trigger new buying interest from long term players later today. For today, we will favour purchases around 1,2880-90 for a target of 1,2960-70.
Our medium target remains at 1,3500.

Data out today:

UK BOE minutes released 09.30 GMT
EZ labour costs Q3 expected -2,2% 11.00 GMT
US housing starts Jan expected 2000K 13.30 GMT
US building permits Jan expected 1910K 13.30 GMT

Gold around 416,00 , with WTI March at 35,10.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 105,55) reached 105,95 overnight again but was unable to sustain this level as expected. We still like to sell upticks (105,90/00) for a retest of 105,30 as we cannot see how the japanese authorities can keep the pair from falling below 100 in the medium term. A sharp move is expected at one point.
EUR/JPY (currently 136,20) following EUR/USD price action. The cross has overcome resistance at 135,70. Next big level at 137,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,9110) took out 1,90 resistance yesterday, leading the way to general USD weakness. Overnight the pair printed a new high to 1,9080, en route to our short/medium term target at 1,93. Supports for the day around 1,9070.
EURGBP (0,6750) rebounded from oversold 0,6730 and hovering around 0,6750 support. We are neutral on the cross and wait for further development.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Deauville Nico 07:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Journalist on Bloomberg interviewed cambists who explains the move of euro by the same thing than usually. The market don't think the ECB will change its rates under 1.30 and the us deficit remains a worry. I think 1.2880/70 is a good point to enter. Still long from 1.2920 , the situation is unconfortable but if this level was the ultimate top, prices would be below 1.2850 by now.
GT

Bangalore RKG 07:38 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro likely to be capped at around 1.3085/1.3100 levels for a very large correction.

Nairobi Tn 07:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888
Hi!
Does this imply intervention at those levels?

Nairobi Jk 07:35 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888 07:30

Malaga boqueron 07:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
HK 8888. What exactly does this CB's checking euro rates consist of?

melbourne 07:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp most likely is done for the day, the next 30 min close below 1.9100 should confirm.

HK 8888 07:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
CB's checking euro rates at 1.2910 in Ldn, trades down to 1.2880 straight away

LDN SAM 07:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ 1.2930---->1.2880...Anythg going on?

Melbourne Qindex 07:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:00 GMT February 17, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2609 ... 1.2764 // 1.2795 - 1.2826 - 1.2857 - (1.2888) -1.2919 // 1.2950 ...

slv sam 07:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
you can always buy euro..never too late. be wise.GT

ICT ML 07:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
good to see ya Hat!.....I wish you success on that trade...want to buy some back there my self....

london 07:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ok chaps. cable has the potential to reach 1.92 today tops. euro 1.2950 at which points a reverse will be the order of the day. gt

Dallas GEP 07:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Loike Melb and Notty mentioned, these longs may not have shorter legs than I thought, The Euro more so than the Pound probably at least for now. London boys tho are NOT in yet.

Ldn Hat 07:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hello all!!!, GEP, ML, Farmacia

I am short the GBP/USD at 1.9128 target 1.9080 stop 1.9180 IMHO.

Dallas GEP 07:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed Euro +10 pips

Dallas GEP 07:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
If pound makes new high Euro WILL follow

Dallas GEP 07:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/cad short @ +20 PIPS

slv sam 07:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
good morning all. e/$ 1.30-1.31 this week and 1.35-1.40 by ene Q1/04 risk for this prediction is total us$ collapse. in this case i think 1.50 may contain. forget G7.GT

Dallas GEP 07:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Notty YEP I agree good call MELB

Melbourne 07:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
the follow through was 9 pips on this latest push through 1.2920

sarasota jf 07:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
sam - its dependent on several factors size just being one - and for every option there are 2 sides

Ldn 07:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD looking very strong as Europe takes over from Asia, with the move through 1.2900 coming easier than many thought given reports of a heavily defended 1.2900 strangle top structure. Since the break the pair has held 1.2900 and this is a strong momentum based signal for funds and could draw in fresh buyers to the fray. Obviously there are concerns about the ECB and potential for ESCB commercial selling, especially as Quaden earlier expressed discomfort with strong ccy gains
mms

GER ad 07:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
If you are not already long is maybe to late to take now this train look like a 30 pips range until NY open 1.2900 - 1.2930

Nottingham 07:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
dallas...siding with melbourne...doesn't feel right...not enough panic buying for me...gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 07:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:10 GMT February 18, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Reference

... // 1.2561* - 1.2642 - 1.2723* - 1.2790 - 1.2856* // 1.2923 ...


Dallas GEP 07:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
MELB, it is an ACROSS the board USD weakness

LDN SAM 07:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SARASOTA : Do U know what size was the option on EUR/$?

Dallas GEP 07:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
MELB, don't think so RE: false breakout just my opinion tho

sarasota jf 07:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
baron von richthofen aka deu bk

melbourne 07:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1.2950 should had been taken by now, looks like a false break.not much follow through.

HK 8888 07:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SARASOTA,
WHO IS RED BARON??
TIA

sarasota jf 07:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
eurusd - despite red baron and couple other sellers at 80-85 in eur funds got to trigger option barrier and trader stops in both eur n euryen now we running into further barriers 1.2950 1.3000 however most of the short term traders are short so we could squeeze right up to these levels - usdyen theres coupon redemption selling above here and boj mafia at 50 so its very tight range for usdyen today

Dallas GEP 07:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Styrax, When I die I will sleep but not long!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 06:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Alot of buyers, I can feel them, LOL

Melbourne Qindex 06:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT February 17, 2004
USD/CHF : 3-Day Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2147 // 1.2250* - 1.2353* - 1.2457* // ... 1.2664 ...

The mid-point reference of 1.2147 - 1.2250 is 1.2198.


Dallas GEP 06:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Quite frankly I think Euro has more legs than POUND for right now BUT they will need to move together

Lagos Styrax 06:58 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP Great job.
But do you sleep?!

SA getFX 06:56 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Calculated pivots:
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.3015 1.9182 R5
1.2946 1.9142 R4
1.2920 1.9127 R3
1.2894 1.9111 R2
1.2860 1.9091 R1
1.2825 1.9071 P
1.2799 1.9056 S1
1.2773 1.9040 S2
1.2739 1.9020 S3
1.2704 1.9000 S4
1.2652 1.8969 S5

Dallas GEP 06:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
POUND will long also but it is at it's high for the day

Dallas GEP 06:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
POUND needs to long also to give euro a boost.

prauge viktor 06:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks Gep

Nairobi Tn 06:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Hi mate! Any views on cable?
TIA

Dallas GEP 06:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Too tight on Euro stop make it 1.2891

Melbourne Qindex 06:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:49 GMT February 18, 2004
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Reference


... // 1.2693* - 1.2846* - 1.2997* // ...


After Expansion


... // 1.2693* - 1.2770 - 1.2846* - (1.2922) - 1.2997 // ...

Dallas GEP 06:49 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Watch 1.2948 area as potential first resting spot

Dallas GEP 06:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Long 1.2908 stop @ 1.2900

Deauville Nico 06:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro should take 1.30 now. I set a buy order at 1.2920 , expensive but it will do the trick...

prauge viktor 06:46 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
hello Gep: is it now the good time to go long or short eur/usd thanks.

HK [email protected] 06:42 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hope to see more s/l trig. at this level to 1.30xx

Dallas GEP 06:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
1,29 break on Euro 1.91 break on POUND

Dallas GEP 06:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
SOLD USD/CAd @ 1.3110

Porto PJT 06:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp is too OB on daily , rsi 9 , to mention one, to make a sustainable ride up. gbp/usd , gbp/jpy OB and eur/gbp too OS.imo gbp needs time now and more convinced on that after reading the farmacia "sitting on hands" post.

ATlanta. 06:31 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
RBA may have done its dash
The second successive monthly fall in investor borrowing for residential properties is the nail in the coffin for any lingering talk that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next month. By David Bassanese afr

If RBA put rates up further you will find Australia fall into a spending slump, with all their retoric they will if they are not careful taking away the goose that laid the golden egg - by chopping its head off
Poor John Howard will be going to a General Election in about six months with a large handicap

brisbane sunstate 06:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 06:17
fwiw I would not short before 0.8015-30 to be safe

Gold Coast martin 06:17 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
AUD LOOKS LIKE IT HAS REACHED ITS PEAK....A CORRECTION TO 7850 IS TO FOLLOW...WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK?

brisbane sunstate 06:11 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Everyone is long eur and gbp so would not be surprised to see a push lower before or early London just to run stops before a final push up or is that just me and the conspiracy theory again

shanghai bc 06:09 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

NT 04:55 -- Good afternoon..Expecting some good shake up operation in Aud/Usd .81-.75 region in coming days before the next direction is set..Good trades..

ICT ML 05:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Faramcia, than we have same general GBP plans...but different targets...works for me!....if all our combined targets get hit...my 1.9450-500, your 1.9820...my 2.150......we are doing very well indeed!

Melbourne Qindex 05:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:46 GMT February 18, 2004
USD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 105.17 // 105.32 - 105.47 - 105.63 - 105.78 - 105.93 // 106.09 ...

Melbourne Qindex 05:39 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:39 GMT February 18, 2004
USD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 105.17 // 105.32 - 105.74 - 105.63 - 105.78 - 105.93 // 106.09 ...

hk ab 0.66 05:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone,

exit the long aud/nzd at 1.1285 for 5 pips and then, kept 1.1200, 1.1168, 1.1250 and put a b/e stop for the lot at 1.1250.

LAX-LGB SNP 05:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
tweaking new charts and kinda distracted but FWIW renewed USD weakness will appear after USDCHF breaks below 1.22 - i'd look to buy on dips in these consolidative times

TTYL TC :-)

LDn 05:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
TD Securities' Stephen Koukoulas says AUD getting overvalued, given Australia exports under pressure, current account deficit high, importers eroding position of local producers, Australia economy to underperform U.S. medium term. Once sentiment swings to USD, rate gap will close, market will focus on Australia's export competitiveness and a "sharp and severe" correction likely at some stage; 0.7000 more likely than 0.8000 by early 2005, he says.
AP

melbourne farmacia 05:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Just my 2 cents on Gbp/usd. As my target at 1.9053 printed, which i've mentioned numerous times before, i'm sitting on my hands as i feel this 1.9053 level will act as a pivot for the time being, ie 200 + / - swings from pivot until the bulls take gbp to 1.9820 first. GT

hong kong nt 05:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
for trend followers, buy at GBPJPY 200.2, aim for new highs, risk 70-80 pips on the downside...

ICT ML 05:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Times like this is when I miss Oil Man the most.....hope he is doing well

BBL in London

nyc sa 05:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ICT ,thnx so much for ur reply ,obviously u know what u r doing . this huge cable run raises eyebrows for those who are not in the know , u will certainly appreciate that , for me going long the cable is like treading uncharterd waters which makes me apprehensive ,so better for me to stay on the sidelines watch until it cools off ,thnx again .

hong kong nt 04:55 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
BC -- Do you think it is safe to reverse aussie long at .81? many good trades to you...

Saihat 04:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 04:28
BuyStop
1.8987

ICT ML 04:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP...will buy it again ideally right above 1.9015-20...but will take anything offered around 1.9050 area when London comes in and it starts to look bid again.....GBP'JPY has the longest legs left I believe.......205 is coming.....201 is BOD support for now

ICT ML 04:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC sa:.........to each his own....more $$$ in 200-400 pip runs north than in 50-100 pip retracements south every now and then.....I finally forced my self to realize that.
My GBP view is a very ambitious one, and it may well fall short again.......I won't care if I only get 500 instead of 1000 extra pps...LOL...and there are a bunch of factors that I think are in play, and being set up, that I care not to divulge here at this time, but will in due time...but when my bull run burns out, it will be every bit as bloody as the 92' crash....IMHO

seriously...the trend is intact until the pattern is broken, at which time you will see me post such like I did at 1.8500 area..until then, I am a GBP bull and not bashfull about it...

Nassau QF (newb) 04:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Projcted high is 1.9159

Dallas GEP 04:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Make that 1.9199 Sell stop

Dallas GEP 04:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
BTW NEWB, fxguide was suggesting a BUY on GBP from 1.9027. Their SELL stop was @ 1.9099 I believe

Cairns aussie 04:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Bloody censored....do I see another trader from Cairns OZ..Hi OS

phils VL 04:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
back in late europ ...

Dallas GEP 04:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Back in a couple of hours guys

st. pete islander 04:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Okay, GEP. I've just been away too long, I guess. Least it doesn't snow in St. Pete! Not yet, anyway. LOL

Dallas GEP 04:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Fred is right NEWB, cable long entry level is a little high. Normally you would long from arounf 1.9040.

Dallas GEP 04:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
BTW VL, you may be right. We probably need some GOOD data to help the ole USD!!!!

Dallas GEP 04:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Islander: Wrong Song!!! "It's my Party and I will cry if i Want to!!!"

Dallas GEP 04:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
NEWB, the reason for shorting Euro becomes less valid IMO as we get nearer London as I posted earlier. Techs supported it to a certain extent and risk was minimal BEFORE London IMO. Now I am looking for usd bear possies

Bangkok FBF 04:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF//Your entry lvl for cable is way too high IMHO.

st. pete islander 04:03 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, when I was in Texas, they taught me that it was my lie and I could tell it anyway I wanted to .... has that changed now?!!!!

st. pete islander 04:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Back to ya, ML

Nassau QF (newb) 03:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Any reason for shortinh EUR/USD Gep?
I was thinling of going long.
I already have a long GBP/USD from 1.9086.

FX guide also says long.

Dallas GEP 03:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Well I will say this about stops. Some people are reluctant to give exact stops for fear they will be gunned down. And quite frankly there do appear to be times that the market touches them and then immediately goes back the direction you were going with your possie. So if someone says for example Short Euro @ 1.2880 with stop above fig., I don't really have a issue with that at all. Now if market longs to say 1.30 and that same person says I am still IN after the market goes back down again to SUB 1,29 THEN I think that's an issue.

phils VL 03:59 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP hi

euro shorts - as JF said y/day, we need one more day to work on getting it dwn... following y/day's aggressive move up, personally reckon its gonna be 1-1 1/2 days for a clearer and risk-reduced down move..

Miami OMIL 03:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Master Arbitrageur 03:37 GMT February 18, 2004
You are right but really what you should say is that everyone should have their own plan and let the rest of the world thump their chest you can’t stop that. Of course that is if you were giving advice to the new people in the market and not just complaining. (/;->

phils VL 03:53 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
stop loss order posts

we may not be in the league of heavy weight specs but for sure we have zero intention to be in the company of SS ..

no offence meant ....

Dallas GEP 03:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
OK now my Euro Short is stopped out at BE That was a waste of time!!! LOL

Cairns OS 03:44 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Feb 18 forecasts/10 pairs posted at http://www.fxguide.net/
Now also featuring High/Low signals

Sydney Colin 03:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Cheers mate. Well put.

Master Arbitrageur 03:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Ok, professionals, Let's keep things consistent here. When leaving orders, try to leave a stop order. And not just a stop order that reads like sell stop loss below 1.3050. That could mean, sell at 1.2245, or 1.3045. Lets not leave any room for here for heroes, I'm sorry, liars who like to thump their chests here on how great they are. To re-cap, so that there is no misunderstanding girls, when leaving orders, also mention your stop loss order. A stop loss order is set at a specific level. Good luck.

mtl gg 03:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP yeah everything stops.. waiting for lunch time. ..lol

Dallas GEP 03:33 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Think now that USD/CAD is a short from around 1.3115

Dallas GEP 03:29 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Got USD/CAD long closed at BE and have trailing stop on Euro short @ BE now.

st. pete islander 03:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ML "You've got mail"!

prague jv 03:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd - offers reported at 1.9080 trying trigger stops 1.9000
1.8920 is very possible here , where expected consolidate B4 another attempt higher , but all will depend on US data (which are expected to be good )

Sydney Ge11Ja 03:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
to join the discussion

I think these are the levels to start thinking long USD. Granted Eur might print 1.3000 and AUD might print 0.8000 but that doesnt mean you buy here, I think you start looking to sell eur and AUD. All the negative USD factors are in the price but positive factors are starting to get air time.

Either way we will get volatility

Dallas GEP 03:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Well this is typical, a couple hours into Asia and everything STOPS. WTF????

Dallas GEP 03:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
OK 1.2850 area looks like pivot point to me. Could go either way but the closer we get to London the MORE likely it will long,

Dallas GEP 03:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ML Are you LONGING from these levels on Pound or waiting for 1.9060 to jump in????

Quito Valdez 03:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
U wanted to know what Aussies know that we don't 'cause they're buying USD like mad.

#1. They, like Chinese & Japanese want USD ammo in case ECB buys USD. If ECB buys, Chinese, Japanese and Aussies sell but at controlled rates to offset the up trend of the dollar which the ECB will attempt. Pacific rim pegs to USD, they loose big if USD goes up. With me here Mel?

#2. Perhaps Aussies feel the USD will rise now. Huh? Not. Go back to #1. Greenspan yawned at raising interest rates, Bush smiled. I don't see US jobs changing radically either just yet, no magic elixers. & from what? How? What industry/consumer surprize would support radically more jobs? Construction, maybe due to low loan rates now but that's all and winter weather's not over for construction optimization. Automotive? Perhaps.

nyc sa 03:14 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ICT ml ,interesting what u 're stating as to ur target levels for the cable , 1000 points in 2-3years by 2006, is it just to acomodate Big Brother ? wouldn't this move be harmful for the british economy ? so is it a matter of just helping the US economy recover with a weak dollar or there is more to it , by sending the pound very high in preparation of the UK entry in the euro zone ,sooner than 2006 or by that date ? we might get up one morning hearing the news of UK joining euro and hop 1000 points down for the bagholders whoever maybe in cable !! worrisome scenario if it ever happens , this is why I 'd rather short the pound every few hundred points rather than going long at this level ..

Melbourne Qindex 03:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:06 GMT February 18, 2004
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 0.7891 ... 0.7922 ... // 0.7968 - 0.7984 - 0.7999 ...

syd 03:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
atlant...dont read too much into that RBA comment...their long held view is that long term equilibrium for the aud is around 70....but that it can stay away from this elvel for a long time. I was at RBA dep gov Stevens lunch speech yesterday, and he barely mentioned the AUD except in terms of "what can we do"....which given the headlines the rally is causing was a surprise.

Their approach is best described as benign neglect...that yes it will probably keep going up in the short term maybe longer, but inevitably it will fall back to something more normal.

shanghai bc 03:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

US interest rates rise cycle is only a matter of time,before or after the election..Then,the new cycle of US rate rise may change the tune of Dollar to a great degree..Low US rates enjoyed so far is largely thanks to Asian subsidies on that front while US housing market is still relatively reasonably priced in comparison to European countries although the level of domestic debts in Britain and US are at rather an alarming level by anyone's standard while Australia has worse c/a deficit issue than USA..Again,it highlights what "hot-money" flow can do to nations and to international market..

Quito Valdez 02:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
OK gurus, gimme opinon. If the ECB intervenes to prop up the USD, they may fall flat on their face as the dollar pushes even lower (Bush, treas. want that). Correct me but the US strongly wants that 1.35 USD/Euro or below, and for a while..say 18 month or more...to beef up econ & make voters happy. Yen is pegged to USD, Japan bought 68 bln USD...stratedy is when EU buys bucks to prop up USD, & Japan sells to offset that trend...68 bln is a lot of ammo. ECB ends up holding the bag. If ECB buys USD and it doesn't work to prop up USD they loose now but win when the dollar eventually goes back up 18 or more months from now. Watch that 1.30-1.35 USD/Euro floor carefully to dive out of Euros and buy USD or another currency. Yuan is 40% undervalued...wow...if it unpegs...I'm there.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:54 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2856 1.2871 1.2890 1.2905 1.2920 1.2939 1.2969
LOWER BANDS 1.2825 1.2810 1.2791 1.2776 1.2761 1.2742 1.2712

Melbourne Qindex 02:52 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:51 GMT February 18, 2004
EUR/USD : 3-Month Projection Reference


... // 1.2505* - 1.2567 - 1.2629 - 1.2691 - 1.2752* - 1.2814 - (1.2875) // ...

Dallas GEP 02:41 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Self Assessment of current possies:

Eur/USd short from 1.2862.....will hold for target 1.2829
Usd/CAD long from AVG. 1.3112....will hold for target 1.3150

Atlant 02:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc notice in the RBA report this week they are concerned "when" the $A falls it will cause inflation and they are almost certain this is going to happen in the not too distant future for one reason or another, also they way they have been acculating more reserves in USD in their war chest make you wonder what they can see that we cant. Think its a strange remark to make regards to when the Aud is no longer strong .

nyc sa 02:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
tomorrow is likely to be a slow directioneless day , thursday and friday ,however, will be key for the dollar direction in view of the important economic US data to be released CPI ,PPI ,leading indicators ,jobless claims mainly , then we will know if there is inflation and if a rate hike is in the cards or not by march , which will determine the dollar direction .

prague jv 02:40 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
jk/ improved ekonomi
especialy from japan has big impact on global ekonomi . there are reported ( rumor ) of big flow from erop. names and mid east names back to us assets .
Big US fund in asia takeing profits on aud .

ICT ML 02:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP...I see nothing worth mentioning at 1.9100 in the big picture.....1.9450 is my next level to look for to TP if long.....there could be a little retracement here in London to give my UK friends better levels to add to longs........

Eru/Gbp is losing its grip on .67XX handle guys......66XX area trend lines coming up soon IMHO

I then see 1.9410 as a bump, a 61.8% fib from 1980 highs (2.4535) to 1985 low when Plaza Accord kicked in...(1.0545)...which has been tested 3 times before and then it overshot twice up to 2.0265 area when Soros & Co....started selling it...then it breaks above that, there is 2.1525 (76.4% Fib) which is my first stated target...than its 2.3XXX in a few months time if the move continues...(Channel top, monthly).

MTL Cain 02:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys,

Any views on USD/CHF. Another news from IWATA coming...

cross fingers...

Melbourne Qindex 02:37 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 02:32 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 02:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD buyers coming in now

Pecs Andras 02:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc
How come then that the US can contain inflation quite well with these low interest rates?
Their inflation numbers are pretty good with these low rates, and a few months ago they were even worried about deflation.

Pecs Andras 02:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Brave guy, you are.
I have a limit sell at 2893
If these guys have enough amunition, we might get a nice spike down before 29 is really taken. It is rumored to be a very large DNT option, so maybe it will be defended heavily. Also, these guys might have loaded up at lower levels to be able to sell a lot before the fig.

shanghai bc 02:24 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

BoE and RBA 's main concern is fighting inflation like any other cb..And housing prices bubble can only be stopped by raising interest rates and that attracts international "hot money"seeking fast returns by tens of billions..Forex market has been led by Pound or Pound's interest for sometime by now..Given the characters of the main hot-money players in Pound market,another interesting set-up for huge 1,000-1,500 pips down and up roller-coast ride at some stage here,possibly in Gbp/Usd 1.90-1.95 region..

nyc sa 02:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
folks , did u see the japaneese GDP figure ? 1.7 % growth and that is the highest in 13 years , quite telling , maybe it's time to buy $/yen , any views ?

nyc jk 02:22 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
jv - why do you think that?

Dallas GEP 02:20 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Andras, above figure

Pecs Andras 02:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP
What is your stop on the EUR short?

prague jv 02:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
big usd bull run just around the corner !! gl

nyc sa 02:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
good evening all distinguished traders , the pound looks indeed very bullish , I have a feeling it will follow exactly the same path as GBP/yen at comparable levels with cable lagging behind . FARMACIA , if u are around would u please throw some light as to the next levels ,and give us ur opinion ? THNX .

Melbourne Qindex 02:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 02:15 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ML. what EXACTLY is there @ 1.91 then?????

Dallas GEP 02:12 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
POUND may drag euro screaming and yelling thru 1.29 unless those option boys are fairly healthy sized at 1.29. Anyome with any real FLOW information?????

Dallas GEP 02:10 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ARTY, didn't know exact timing, too many things to keep track of!!! LOL

ICT ML 02:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP.....is that all...he's being "modest"....LOL...should see 2.1XX than even more eventually if things stay as is.....ie....UK says strong Pound is helping them control inflation, etc....and US says weak dollar is helping to control inflation....etc.....

the old "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours"...between long time allies......just My view anyway.....

they gave me permission to be unrelentlessly bullish GBP/USD

LA ARTOFYEN 02:06 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, was already thrown around on GVI ages ago............

LA Mel 13:54 GMT February 17, 2004
*FORMER U.K. CHANCELLOR CLARKE SEES POUND RISING TO $2.00, you know, tory...

Dallas GEP 02:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
UK Clarke says we should see 2.00 pound. May be reason for spurt here

Dallas GEP 02:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
POUND is quite bullish to say the least. See if it cracks 1.91.

Melbourne Qindex 01:48 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Nassau QF (newb) 01:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Japan Q4 GDP 1.7% q/q (exp 1.1%, prev 0.3%) 7.0% y/y

Dallas GEP 01:36 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Euro 1.2862

Melbourne Qindex 01:27 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Atlanta 01:26 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Option related offers ahead of 1.2900 in Eur/usd helping to contain the dollar slide, with talk of an ACB protecting a barrier at that level
mms

Newcastle GH 01:19 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
I was thinking the same thing. Although only a small move it looks significantly like about the same time yesterday.

Dallas GEP 01:18 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD shorter term charts are getting difficult to read. I would switch to 4 hour charts on that pair.

Dallas GEP 01:13 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Think the MOF is again slightly pushing up USD/JPY to compensate for an anticipated USD bear attack (sounds like a broken record yet???).

Dallas GEP 01:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
In keeping with what I said earlier, i think it is OK to play Euro short until London when I expect we may see high attempts again. The ranges will be narrower IMO also. Maybe 1.2870 to 1.2820 or so on Euro and 1.9080 to 1.9030 on Pound. Upon approach on the London session however, USD bears may push to see to see what the resolve is of the folks who are sitting at the top of these levels.

Gen dk 01:07 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
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Gen dk 01:05 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

cb jc 01:01 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
can u post approximate projection regarding the euro/dollar trading..thnks...m sleepy already...

Gen dk 00:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
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Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gen dk 00:51 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
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pd cumino 00:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW. January could show better or steady USD portfolio inflows, and recently in Feb they picked, but remember that those flows are anyway lower than the last year average. Furtherly last Jap interventions were: $bill 14.5 in Nov, 24.5 in Dec, and 64.1 in Jan. If those flows, as possible, will diminish there is another problem for USD. In the meantime I see EUR margin specs near oversold, (surprisingly) and generally USD (margin) specs much less oversold. The only major currency that I see a bit overbought is GBP (a part JPY which is another question) while near oversold also CAD, AUD, CHF, ZAR and is not overbought even NZD. (Take note that I am not speaking about IMM data, which often differ from margin).
On the other side the EUR medium termers aren't actually so much loaded.
By considering positions and flows I could agree with Monaco Oga that we could see 500 pips on the breaking of 1.29. In the meantime I might not be so surprised to know later that ECB is already discreetly capping EUR.

Miami OMIL 00:47 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Well what ever we get on eur/usd, intervention, option protection what ever you want to call it the 1.2900 area is still protected until otherwise taken. I tend to take things as they come like I said before the bulls still own the show but a pullback has been on the cards for a while too. I will just go with the flow and let the market dictate the path I should take IMHO. It is nice to read comments from the great pool of knowledge that we have here in the forum. Thanks again to all of you for sharing your thoughts with the rest of us. (/;-> GL GT

ICT ML 00:34 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw if the GBP bull stampede continues......1.9500 and 205.00 are next MT targets before a pullback .......long live her majesties great brittish pound!

205 is a daily 3 year channel top....1.9500 area is fib projection target, next level up from the 1.8520 (50% fib target projection) level that was pretty much dead on.....

after that things get tricky, as monthly studies are WAY into extreme levels not seen for decades.....

la gold 00:30 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
My guess is, ECB will talk, and make noise, once
we move past 1.30. But they will not intervene before 1.34/35

Global-View 00:28 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   

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la gold 00:25 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
The European/US, cession will push the Euro to new high.
The level of 1.2830/50 will be strong support in the next
36 hours

Ldn 00:23 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Plenty of talk in markets about what, if anything, the ECB is likely to do if EUR/USD edges closer to 1.30 'pain barrier'. Stephen Lewis at London's Monument Securities says the bank is more likely to rely on currency intervention than on changing rate settings to try and keep EUR in check, as it has very little room for maneuver on rates given fragile growth in key economies
reuters

Dublin CK 00:21 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I would expect to hear stronger words from TRICHET and crew, before intervention occurs.

IMHO they are probably thkg about it, but they must also be considering (1) would it reverse the euros rise or (2) would it just stall its advance.

If they intervene to soon it would have a BOJ affect, slowing the process, if they pick the right moment ie more favourable econimic factors then they could reverse the appreciation.

Id like to see what happens in China, its election yr in he US and the pegging of the Yuan is a hot topic after 2.6 million jobs have been lost.

Melbourne Qindex 00:16 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 00:04 GMT - The distribution profile of my weekly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency pulling towards the upper trading range of 1.2882 - 1.3072. However my other cycle analyses suggested that the odds are in favour of a strong pull-back.

saloniko 2004 nk 00:08 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
I think its time to see 1.3058..

Above it a correction around 1.29++ and a stronger push 1.3258-1.3458

GNight..
nk

Chicago Irish 00:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
Qindex:Somewhat startled to see you so adamant about a pullback for Euro,numbers are just numbers and even your wonderful system has to respect the power of this Euro move.,Now if your call was on Aud I can understand as it hit a number of significant targets today.At what point do you say flip and reverse in the direction of the trend? I agree with BC on direction and lack of intervention at these levels.

Spr NoodyG 00:04 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
AS I dont read Max's but I recall from my "younger" days he was good
I figure when wrong he wud be making a honest wrong call rather than a frivolous one I have seen with my own eyes trading shorts turned into a trading long on some of the optional services..hint the double M boys
Dr Q below is also OK...ultimately we pull the decision triggers ourselves
Like BC said as well market is trying upside
a bit of hush over a DNT with the upside 1.3025 shortdated 1 mth stuff?

prague jv 00:02 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
ab/ are you still long usd/jpy ? thx

Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT February 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:54 GMT - Thank you for your information.

 




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