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Forex Forum Archive for 02/20/2004

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Memphis Charles 23:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Keep it coming Gold Coast.

Gold Coast martin 22:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Your appreciation is noted.....

Melbourne Qindex 22:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 21:50 GMT - You are welcome. Have a nice weekend.

LAX-LGB SNP 21:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
with reference to 09:48 GMT February 20, 2004
closed eurjpy/gbpjpy below entry for bp gains thanks to whipsaws
selling usd v/s eur...gbp...chf yields quite a few cents
however audusd has been the star of the show (many many thanks, Qindex)

NYC Bill 21:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
So, GEP What is your target on the cross?

Dallas GEP 21:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Good BYE all have Good WE

Back in Asia Sunday night.

Khobar 21:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Manama MT
Cairo asamir
Hello ... I'm from Khobar;is there any way to contact u regarding FOREX?
Thank you

Gen dk 21:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 21:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Think monday morning will see some retracement due to oversold levels first up

Dallas GEP 21:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Last post of the day guys. Right before platform close I entered two OPPOSSING positions, I now have a Euro/USD SHORT from 1.2520 (USD Bull position) and a USD/CHF SHORT from 1.2606 (USD Bear position). Both with relatively tight stops. Came Sunday night, as long as we gap and we must assuredly will IMO, one will make money and one will stop out.

Melbourne Qindex 21:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : It should be 1.2503


EUR/USD : If the market is trading below 1.2598, the next quantised level should be 1.2598 - 95 pips = 1.2503.




Melbourne Qindex 11:39 GMT February 20, 2004
EUR/USD : If the market is trading below 1.2598, the next quantised level would 1.2598 - 95 pips = 1.2693.


Melbourne Qindex 22:15 GMT February 14, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2787. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2598 // 1.2693 and the mid-point reference is 1.2645. The upper barrier is located at 1.2977 // 1.3072 and the mid-point reference is 1.3024. The market rhythm is represented by 95 pips (k=0.009475) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2598 - 1.23072. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market is trading below 1.2787).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2598 // 1.2693, 1.2787, 1.2882, 1.2977 // 1.3072 ...

Spotforex NY 21:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
and he called me 'collect' for all those hours......

Manama MT 21:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cairo asamir
Hi dear
For those pips you have lost today, I think it is nothing compared to unexpected movement due to the alert in Japan.
It is better to close down and start next week. But remeber
many people were long euro today. Good luck for the next trade.

brisbane sunstate 20:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
sheffield G-Man 20:16 GMT
yes me too don't know who he talket to but i hope he keep it up
THANKS Martin

Gold Coast martin 09:32 GMT February 20, 2004
EUR/USD FALLING BACK TO 12540 RANGE 2 HOURS INTO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE AMERICAN MARKET....DONT ASK HOW I KNOW...I JUST DO....!
Gold Coast martin 10:06 GMT February 20, 2004
hey london dude...my predictionsare bases on research and lots of hours talking to the right people.I just want to share my thoughts with everyone one without revealing my trading systems and sources...G/L G/T

Pecs Andras 20:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Lagos Styrax 20:10 GMT February 20, 2004
Depends on your broker. My platform will close in 40 minutes

sheffield G-Man 20:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Just want to say thanks for the tips to Gold Coast Martin this morning. I for one didn't ridicule, but ran with it - boy am I glad i did - eh Simon?

Miami OMIL 20:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well I had to check back again. I missed the message you left me Road but I will be back Monday morning. FWIW eur/usd hit 1.2490-95 my last support I posted. With indicators now in O/S territory there will be a pullback of some sort. If 1.2490 holds which it should then the rough retracement numbers are 1.2600-05, 1.2630-35 and 1.2665-70. I will update this Monday morning. Again I hope everyone has a happy and safe weekend. (/;->

Lagos Styrax 20:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Has the market closed.
Things are rather static on my pc here.
Pls any contrary opinion, I think we still have about 2hours to go...

Spotforex NY 20:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
cairo asamir - At this point on a friday - very unlikely...

FWIW - Every trade I put on ALWAYS has the same feeling in my stomach in the early stages.....whether it turns out to be a big winner or a loser.....

If you keep a discipline approach - you'll have good days to make up for the 'bad' ones....

Happy trading...

Lagos Styrax 20:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
cairo if you don't have any open position; its better you call it a day or a week
and hope for the best next week
cheers

Stockholm za 20:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I respect your honesty… and I know what you are saying is true…
Many happy trades to you & good-bye…….

cairo asamir 20:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
please any one advise i have lost 77 pts today so
is there any transaction one can make now to make a slight recover

cairo asamir 20:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
i have lost 77 pts today so
is there any transaction one can make now to make a slight recover

Spotforex NY 19:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 19:55

for strictly ego reasons.......to be honest.....

The point being that the other forum has a great balance of insights, calls and comments.....

cairo asamir 19:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
is there any transaction one can make

Stockholm za 19:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY ........ You still has NOT answer the question....
re:- Your - Spotforex NY 19:06 GMT.......
Happy trades to you ......

Spotforex NY 19:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
TS had a great timely post!!!!!!!!!

Spotforex NY 19:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 19:35 -

You can archive my 'history' as I have posted on FF many times.....with timely posts with good/bad calls..

The FF is great,

but the subscription service is where I post. As a fellow member to this community I think all should subscribe at one point to support the site!!!

Here was my post of the day....when dollar yen was at 107.80

"NYC TS 14:36 GMT February 20, 2004
News that terror alert has been raised to highest level in Japan. Never knew they had one but..."

Ldn 19:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh cheers agree with your last post

Spotforex NY 19:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 19:32 - I usually only post on GVI (subscription base)....

There are some great names in there who far exceed my ability to 'call' the market.....

Information is gold....subscribe to GVI....


P.S.
and I do have my dog calls and admit to them as well.....

AlexVA Dennis 19:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
The close may be unconfortable also for numerous analysts, who have been calling for yen strength/dollar weakness for months. In the Feb 16 FX Weekly magazine, 25 out of 26 analysts polled had a one month dollar-yen forecast of Y106 or lower. Looking further out, estimates ranged on the three month forecast from Y98 to Y109, with an overwhelming bias leaning towards a lower, not higher dollar-yen.


MNI

Stockholm za 19:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

Spotforex NY 19:06 GMT......

No offence – but if I may ask ??—
Why take your post from GVI and post them on GV-FF…
After the fact….. ?????????
What do you intend to accomplish......?????????

Happy WE to ALL.............




Pecs Andras 19:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 19:28 GMT February 20, 2004
Very nice calls below on cable and yen.
Too bad we did not see them here on the forum. or did I just miss them?

Livingston nh 19:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP - looks like one of the great opportunities to short CABLE --

Spotforex NY 19:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
spot will be on for tomorrow's online class being held by GVI

...will you??????

Happy weekend all!!!

Livingston nh 19:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
for gold bugs - I am surprised by how much attention currency traders pay attention to gold - but if there is price pressure in the US then gold should perform well relative to currencies (gold lags inflation)

Va Raven 19:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Now we see some low taste stuff coming..... am out of here. Nice weekend all!

USA Biscuit Boy 19:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Swiss DG! Maybe he doesn't like this dollar strength (especially against the yen) and wants to repeat the need for exchange rate flexibility?

Spotforex NY 19:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
From GVI -


Spotforex NY 02:12 GMT February 19, 2004
I am thinking that the dollar Yen pair could finally fill that gap left by the Sept G-7....above 108.10 would be my confirmation of such a possibilty....

Spotforex NY 12:05 GMT February 20, 2004
Dollar Yen above 108.30 yells me that it is time to fill the gap on the charts...the one left by SEPT G-7.......

Spotforex NY 11:57 GMT February 20, 2004
For those who like chart patterns...the hourly pound has a H&S top formation in place..with 1.8830 as neckline...with 1.8550 as OBJ....

Spotforex NY 21:23 GMT February 18, 2004
Cable's acceleration line is being retested today. This line was visted last Friday when the Pound probed the 1.8800 before stabilizing and then climbing above 1.91xx





Swiss DG 19:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USA Biscuit Boy, I will post you a note as soon as I have the info.

L.A. Igrok 19:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
sf mike// All smart ones have already bought my book. The smartest went even further. You're behind so far. Joking of course. You have a good one.

Livingston nh 19:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN - you can fade Bernanke too

prauge viktor 19:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gep do u think its better to close all opend position during the w.E and how do u see the euro/usd and the usd/yen thanks and I wish u a very nice weekend.

Va Raven 19:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
"The relentless selling of EUR/USD over the last hour or so has taken on the feel of forced liquidation, dealers opine.
Executions have been extremely sloppy with dealers hitting bids and asking questions later. The chaotic price action in the
high-yielders as well as gold helps support this notion. 1.2500 is next support for EUR/USD with more at 1.2385". IFR

Ldn 19:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Fed Bernanke: Sees 'Substantial' US Econ Growth In 2004
Bernanke: US Job Mkt To 'Strengthen Considerably' In 04

Livingston nh 19:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta - always fade Greenspan - he couldn't see the equity bubble - he raised rates in 94 with no inflation

sf mike 19:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 18:58 GMT

Do you cover that in your book. I'm thinking fo buying it.

L.A. Igrok 18:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Next bold call. 114.60 before the end of the month or shoertly after within the first week. Don't even believe in it myself. Will see. Half out for the moment from 105.50 to 109.14. GB. Good week. Have a nice w/e.

Quezon Mailman 18:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad should bounce nicely from 1.3368 (61.8%) after reaching overbought levels earlier.

Atlanta 18:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan Sees Labor Market Pickup Continuing

ICT ML 18:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, but I am going to sneak back in here right before we close to see if a long GBP for early Monday makes sense or not.....close to my BOD level here between 1.8575-15 area....have to see though

vancouver jpb 18:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thx, its been a weird one today, I did OK shorting but with options exp today, who knows

USA Biscuit Boy 18:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Swiss DG do you know when the press conference is meant to take place? Will be interesting why the urgency??

Dallas GEP 18:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
This time of day volume will be lighter so don't take a possie unless you plan to leave it open over the weekend (ill-advised).

vancouver jpb 18:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP do you think the EUR & GBP have taken the turn towards the bulls?

Porto PJT 18:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad, a bounce on 61 fibo intraday basis at 65.

Dallas GEP 18:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Mailman, I found it hard to read myself so I didn't play it today.

Barcelona JP 18:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Where does he see euro heading?

To 1,2347 at least

Dallas GEP 18:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dollar/CAD outlook is very bullish because CAD more than likely will have a rate DECREASE and US will probably soon have a rate INCREASE.

Swiss DG 18:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Snow requested to have an urgent press-conference, anyone know the reasons???

Va Raven 18:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Agreed, no feel for the elements in place for such a reversal yet. 12 months a little too long for spot traders....

Barcelona JP 18:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
What did Robert Miner say today?

European Currency (Mar.) 60M
If W.5 is complete as shown, the EC should not close above 1.2832, or trade
above 1.2885.
Consider short trades on reversal signals if 1.2762-1.2832 is reached.

istanbul 18:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Question
how far can the euro/usd drop?
when if ever will we see a crossrate of 1.40

Quezon Mailman 18:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, any thoughts on usd/cad? I never thought it will be a very uncooperative currency today. thanks.

Livingston nh 18:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
derby dj - a 12 month view? a bit early to call the turn here - trade the charts but don't look for bottoms/tops yet

Dallas GEP 18:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
say ML , and YES it will head south one more time at least with Euro as well it seems!!! LOL

Barcelona JP 18:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I' haven't got the nuts, but cable is going to 1,8514.

derby dj 18:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thinking of holding dollar longs over the weekend because i think there ferocity behind this move may be more than a shorterm rally. charts starting to make me wonder if the low is in for the dollar?? opinions guys?? euro had a double top. sterling leading the way down it appears. anyone think institutions are reversing dollar shorts or just covering?? if they build long term dollar longs at these levels they have a good chance of making big money on a 12 month view.... dont they???

Atlanta. 18:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Aud if 7645 is removed there is precious little
historical support between there and 0.7545
Ifr say

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Wien GD 18:14 GMT February 20, 2004
for today.

nyc 18:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
think i will only trade on fridays and rest all week

ICT ML 18:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
well guys, its been fun....leaving before I do something stupid and spoil an exceptional day and week....but I swear cable looks like it is heading south one more time today.....

Livingston nh 18:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver jpb - fwiw - EUR has held at 55da eva and GBP at 21 da mva - a break of these levels would be first major correction since Summer (this opinion is not worth much if you are trying to decide a w/e position)

L.A. Igrok 18:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ljubljana 18:21 GMT February 20, 2004/// Have no idea.

Today's closing on the EUR/USD is likely to show a bearish divergence on daily MACD. In such case the target naturally comes at 1.2350-2400. If goes below, then 1.05 and even .9850 are on the cards in accordance with similar divergence on weeklies. It's a very long term, of course. A drop below 1.2330 is going to be a EUR/USD killer.

Pecs Andras 18:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
What a day!
I have never seen 3 big figure moves on AUD and NDZ.
They usually move slowly

Quezon Mailman 18:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
what a mad goose! who's behind this crazy thing?!

Va Raven 18:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Definitely, NH, right here.
I was out before the move for the reason that I saw more money in euro and added funds in it, but now, I see value in usd/cad at this level.

Dallas GEP 18:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Andras, You would have to leave it open over the weekend of course but I like that possie.

jordan joe 18:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
dose any one have a good explanation for the cad movment please tia

B.A. BOCA 18:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
let's say it has a kick-you-in-the-nuts if you're not looking mentality. built-up cross action looks like.

vancouver jpb 18:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
its been fun shorting the GBP & EUR --- but how much longer will this will this bullish dollar go????

Va Raven 18:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Missed Igrok's post till NH mentioned today..... that was the call of the week, 115 or not.

Oakland Daimyo 18:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: GBP/USD short from 1.8784 to 1.8585 I lost twice before my ship came in. Stuck w/ it though.
EUR/USD Made +17, +10, -18, +10, net +11 Totally underperformed on this one. I exited each one wrong today. I should have just kept the first short @ 1.2603, I was late as the sell signal came in under 1.2640. Walked away and you guys started the party train w/o me. Should have left a sell-stop

Livingston nh 18:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ahh Raven buy the USD/CAD dips?

Igrok - flat line yen but you called the direction

Va Raven 18:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
BOCA, what is it?

B.A. BOCA 18:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
loonie lives up to its reputation-

Pecs Andras 18:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP
How about shorting EUR/GBP now?

Ljubljana 18:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi Igrok. May we know what is your view on other majors?

Va Raven 18:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
NH, eur/cad gave back 2 big figure while aud/cad run almost 3 big figure today, usd/cad should be happy to have seen 1.35 briefly today.
Yes, hold it now for more, but next week. Good luck NH!

Wellington am 18:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well, i'm a newbie trader and got burnt. Made 185 pips shorting the NZD/AUD but lost almost all of it on a greedy $/yen short - or maybe. Will hold over the wkend. In for a penny, in for a pound. Recall an economist article a few weeks back looking for a further 10% drop in USD. Whatever, if i lose it all I'll be back. GL & GT everyone.

Dallas GEP 18:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
WARNING!!!! I would expect the dollar BEARS to gap the prices in their direction over the weekend. I would close dollar bullish positions.

L.A. Igrok 18:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 15:10 GMT February 20, 2004
IGROK - RE: JPY - very timely call //

Agree. Looks good. Today even better.

Rivonia PipPirate 18:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
£/$ anyone remember seeing a bigger daily candle? Still just a 'lil pimple on the nose of the greater scheme of things.

Oakland Daimyo 18:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I'm out GBP/USD +199 , -20, -3 for net +176 Va Raven you are probably correct. I wanted to layer into a position but had to go w/ the break instead. Will start selling uptick stat again on Monday not today. We got at least another 45 mins

Wien GD 18:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
raden: 17:31 ... usd/jpy top 109.45-55 (bid)!!
today or next time?

Livingston nh 18:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Raven - enough of a rest break for the loonie (it's that weather up there)

Barcelona JP 18:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
fear & greed; fear and greed.

hong kong nt 18:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ab -- cover 19088 at 18585...

Ldon 18:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD rally continues, with USD/JPY printing new 3-mo highs at 109.17, EUR/USD near-month lows at 1.2505, GBP/USD falling below 1.86, USD/CHF near month-high at 1.2630. Momentum driven by spec-led unwinding of short USD positions accelerated by "outright dollar longs...which is pretty ugly for the dollar shorts," says trader at Swiss house in NY
reuters

Va Raven 18:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Haha, ML, but the truth might be that most dollar bears are choosing today to exit/buy back dollar, not yet any new lng dollar really built.
No panic for euro bears at all. Both bulls and bears all got out with money, fresh or old.
See the cad move, NH?

Hong Kong Preventer 18:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Any news from central banks, or people just take profit and get some stop loss to hit

Barcelona JP 18:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
It's friday, that's way I'm not going to short it again, but......

Atlanta 18:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
sorry Aud

Atlanta 18:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
.7545 daily low Jan 30 If it breaks this it could fall another 100 pts ?

Barcelona JP 18:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I've closed Cable. But I think it'll go to 1,8514.

Quezon Mailman 18:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I like to offer a toast. For those who are almost drunk because of the outpouring of cases of beer, may you have a second round next week, hopefully with those who are starving from a glass of beer today.

Barcelona Tony 18:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I exit here half of my $long positions I've been holding so far ... great money made (not bad for a mad cow "my own macd" -for eilat dokphin-) targets met everywhere and surpassed in aud ... now just plannig to close with small loss yens and bye for the week

ICT ML 18:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ravan....been a Fantastic Friday!!!!!!! If $$$ wasn't made today...in the wrong business I guess...

Looks like we stumbled into the first wave of cable BOD lorders...

Malaga boqueron 18:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Must say, haven't seen this in a long long time. Reminds me of the ol' days ('80s

Aden PK 18:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP have you noticed the spike in both cable and Euro/Dlr buyers are here on dip for now, good luck to you, happy week end

Oakland Daimyo 18:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I guess my comments upset someone. Watch out we have "enemies".

Livingston nh 18:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP - go for it Cable is right at 21 da mva - a break and you could be buying beers for everybody

Barcelona JP 18:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I'm out: 160 pips

Chambery FR JFB 18:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... stochs50,3,3 on 30' chart is as low as 0.3... never seen that before (gbp). Mathematically, it has to go up sometimes!! :-)

Va Raven 18:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Right or wrong, we do have a good Friday, no?

Barcelona JP 18:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
That's too much for my body.

Want a beer, GEP?

beirut jb 18:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
all cranks and sharks in this expiry options day,

how come gold drop on japan terrorist alert news???


Oakland Daimyo 18:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.8580 was nothing. Who said we can't move in a straight line. First of all, the financial mkts are anything but linear. Totally a non-linear dynamic.

Wien GD 18:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP: take a break ... too agressive ... to much beer?

Ldn 18:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh well I am not going to get into that with you because I have been over to the US and found thats one of your problems your too inward looking exactly right a poung of what , when I was there they didnt even know what an escudo was or never mind the country it belonged to , and personaly I dont think there is anything clever in that. , I apologise for anyone I offend by that statement, but Livingston left himself wide open with that kind of statement and I am sure not everyone in the US is the same

Quezon Mailman 17:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am usd/cad long 1.3447 and has been egging to go with the tide. hope it wakes up and sails northwards.

hong kong nt 17:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ab -- wanna close the position at 1.9088, what do you think?

Barcelona JP 17:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
VERY RISKY: target 1,8514

Nottingham 17:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Quezon Mailman 17:55 GMT

Carry trade panic...they are of course buys when o/s reached (audcad/nzdcad)...glt gt

Barcelona JP 17:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1,8580

Aden PK 17:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Jp, close the cable position here, significant demand was there earlier on the current levels, but I am not sure if they have removed orders because of week end, any how caution warranted.

sgp sp 17:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell me where is uzd/nzd heading.....I am holding shorts at the average of 0.6961 and am considering whether to close it or hold it over the weekend.....trailing stops in place.....

tia, gl & gt

sf mike 17:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Are you trying to scare yourself into selling it. Go ahead.

Quezon Mailman 17:55 GMT February 20, 2004
the goose is very uncooperative with the general dollar bullish stance!

Barcelona JP 17:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Lets see now 1,8580 and be ready to close

Livingston nh 17:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - there are no folks in the US whose feeling of worth depends on the USD value vs. any currency in the world - you ask folks here what a dollar is worth vs a pound and the response will be "a pound of what?"

Dallas GEP 17:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.2518 LONG VERY VERY aggressive play

Quezon Mailman 17:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
the goose is very uncooperative with the general dollar bullish stance!

Oakland Daimyo 17:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn--exactly! That is what I've been trying to tell everyone since last night.

Barcelona JP 17:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
going, going. As I said before: The lost of 1,8641 meant go down to 1,8580-1,8514

Athens 17:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
A couple of posts earlier this week, the first one day prior to the new year top and the second immeditely after the new top:

Athens 11:08 GMT February 17, 2004
hk ab, it seems so. Contrary to BOJ tactics, European CB's often let the market hit the stops and then step in beyond the old top/bottom. If 1.2895 is taken, it wouldn't mecessarily imply that the ECB is simply watching in apathy.

Athens 08:01 GMT February 18, 2004
As thought. The price action thus far supports the view expressed here by me and others in previous days, namely that we are not in front of a beginning of a new EUR/$ uptrend but rather in the last stages of the end of an older long lasting trend (with or without the ECB).

Have a good weekend all.

FW CS 17:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
A weekly Euro trendline drawn from the 1.08 low comes in around low 1.25ish level. Also see an ascending triangle on the weekly which is a lot of times a continuation pattern

Ldn 17:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
It seems the lower we go the faster we travel

Oakland Daimyo 17:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Road, careful w/ EUR long. My system does not have the limitation of time. Bottom picking in this environment is a high octane affair. Selling pressure > buying pressure w/ no relief in sight. Do not depend on NY close to save bulls. Next significant Fractal Lows are 1.2509 and 1.2488 Stops under 1.2480 at least I would say. Might be worth re-thinking.

Barcelona JP 17:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Sorry: 1,8630

Ldn 17:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh rates hikes are bad if they are overdone but as far as the US goes necessary, also the moral of the citizens will suffer with a currency that is worthless , remember the Europeans and the Germans when the Euro was a piece of censored now they say nothing, a high currency give a feeling of worth

Barcelona JP 17:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Target: 1,8580
I'll close position from 1,8646 if it trades at 1,8530.

Barcelona JP 17:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Wait. Let the platdorm do it for you.

Let it go up 20 pips, now. And if does it, close it.

Dallas GEP 17:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Out at even now on last Euro Short.

beirut jb 17:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelone JP

I will end soon mate

Livingston nh 17:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - agree rates will rise but for a Bloomberg guy to say this will impart confidence is a "bucket of smoke" as far as economic consequences (of course, I also believe rate hike is bad for USD)

Atlanta 17:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold continueing to take a tumble $396

Miami OMIL 17:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW here is one of the plans for eur/usd 1.2490-95 sell order, stop loss 1.2650, limit 1.2170. Second layer order 1.2330, stop loss move on all orders to 1.2490, limit remains at 1.2170. Thought I share that with you. (/;-> GL GT

Lagos Styrax 17:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
These had been quite frustrating.
Enough for a week.
Gnight everybody, wishing u a pleasant weekend

beijing road 17:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Longed EUR here with stop at 1.2509.

AlexVA Dennis 17:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb 17:29

To refresh your memory EURUSD went "straight up" from 1.1378 on 11 Nov to 1,2898 on 11 Jan while GBPUSD went from 1.6568 on Nov 11 to 1.9142 and Feb 17, neither had any significant correction during that time frame.

To say that no markets ever go straight up or down is simply not true. These are only 11.5% and 13.4% retracements respectively. Very modest considering the scope of the preceeding rallies.

USA Biscuit Boy 17:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Don't worry Daimyo I am flat the past 3 days and only made 10 pips this week. Eur/usd didn't give me a bounce to short so I just have to watch now. Just gabbing :)

Barcelona JP 17:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I'm tired of trailing down!!!!

Livingston nh 17:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo - technicals reflect fundamentals so there is a bit more in the last week than techs (two big reversals)

Ldn 17:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh well they wont stay down there for ever and I would think most of the US citizens are quite aware of this also bond holders - it will happen this year with or without an election being fought . infact that could be the redeeming factor, a change of power may cushion the blow.

Oakland Daimyo 17:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Biscuit Boy be careful w/ fundamentals, this is Friday FX. This move has little to do w/ fundamentals purely technical.

Livingston nh 17:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - it will be even worse this time because the rates are so low (Fed will panic like they always do) - from a currency perspective consider all the Treasuries held by non-US folks (bonds are currency with coupons) so a half point change in the two yr. is BIG

Oakland Daimyo 17:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thx ICT ML going for full P&F horizontal count tgt 1.8500

USA Biscuit Boy 17:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn I agree on that interest rate call. But without jobs it aint gonna happen. That's the really worrying thing about this recovery. Why is nobody hiring? The Fed can't cut rates anymore. Credit cards are all maxed out and everyone has their 0% financed cars, trucks, furniture and bigscreen tv's. Without jobs growth it is simply not sustainable. I really hope things pickup quickly.

Oakland Daimyo 17:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
JP-I suggest you take quick hits today. I've been at this since last night. I'm now up in a big way. I'm not greedy but if it's there I will take it. 1.8578 is there.

ICT ML 17:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
cable is on a minor support I have here at 1.8627, the last before 1.8515 area......start to think about your TP plans if closing today....

AlexVA Dennis 17:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Quezon Mailman 17:28 GMT

USDCAD ran from 1.3283 to 1.3512 in about five hours time. Isn't that enough?

Ldn 17:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Livingston .. Back in 1994 when the bond market collapsed interest rates were not 1% and it was a totally different ball game

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
"BOJ" message , usd/jpy top 109.45-55 (bid)

Dallas GEP 17:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.2537 short (this is agressive) but cable is about to break lows again

beirut jb 17:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ update,

short $ here is a low risk trade inspite of this bg drop last 2 days,

market dont go straight up or straight down

monday euro will probably pop ,

in ranging mode it may pop until 129 hi again

in reversal mode ( what evrebody is screaming now ,the same people scream long when it pop 40~500pip lol) it should test at least 12650 to 127 before dropping again

Take care

GL GT

Barcelona JP 17:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gep

What do you think: close cable at 1,8580 or wait til 1,8514?

Livingston nh 17:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN - yessireee a rate hike will make everything right - wonder what that Bloomberg had to say back in 1999 or 1994 - psychology is not as important as real world consequences -- all the meatball commentary this morning on various media about "core" inflation

Quezon Mailman 17:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
anyone who can comment why usd/cad has no much movement, considering euro, chf and gbp have broken levels? thanks.

Barcelona JP 17:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cable jas gone down today 350 pips

Atlanta 17:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold now $399

Chambery FR JFB 17:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 17:22 GMT February 20, 2004
Oopss... -25 pips to close the day, that hurts :-(

Ldn 17:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP can see a mild correction Monday and then more of this Tuesday

Barcelona JP 17:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cable can go down now to 1,8580-1,8514

Ldn 17:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Looks like its another wave down ??

Dallas GEP 17:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, we are running out of trading day BUT I would NOT short usd/jpy or Long EUR/USD or Long GBP/USD. This is a DOLLAR BULL day.

Ldn 17:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg Live trading room say a rate rise would actually be good for the moral in the US to show things are picking up . think he is right abnormal rates at 1% doesnt help anyone wanting to save only the big spenders with nothing in the bank but a credit card.

Chambery FR JFB 17:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... think the move down is over short term, have bought [email protected], s/l 1.8630 for back to 1.8700 level :-)

Dallas GEP 17:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
DO NOT SHORT the dollar NOW

prauge viktor 17:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ja Gep Im glad that u win the beer..plz how do u see the euro now is the time to long and is it the time to short USD/Yen thanks and I hope u will be the winner all the time..

Barcelona JP 17:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Here we go again?

Miami OMIL 17:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP can I get a beer from you since you have acquired so many LOL. (/;->

Everyone have a nice and safe weekend see you on the other side.

Metallica Hero for the Day 17:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Made 14,218 and a half points today alone! Who is better than me? Nobody.

Barcelona JP 17:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I want to see cable under 1,8620

OK SZ 17:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Did qindex nail another call on the euro or what

Quito Valdez 17:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I gotta agree with biscuit boy and others, sellers are in control now of the EUR/USD situation, ECB is fine but watchful with 1.28+ and the dollar hike is temporary 'til the nervous ones are out, then it's dollar down-Euro up days again. If you didn't get out in time don't fret, just be patient for a bit, I still think we'll see 1.29+ come around sooner than many think, this is cyclic..check the charts. Keep your finger on the button and WATCH THIS THING like an eagle and punch that key exactly when you see 1.287 print to sell your Euros, and back off and chew a twig to buy bucks when it valleys. The Fed is NOT going to raise interest rates and whomever started that rumor is gnutz. This market is also being manipulated, it ALL isn't econ forces.

Barcelona JP 17:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Not yet, GEP. Not yet!!!

USA Biscuit Boy 17:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
BOJ boys have to be grinning from ear to ear.

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
JP, I won the BEER, I am not buying!!!

Ldn 17:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
The RBA Sold 2 Bln aud last month and now you know why , they new its height was unsustainable and are gathering amo for the next attack on the downside

Wien GD 17:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Also beer from vienna ... if you once come here ;)

Nottingham 17:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ahead of my o/s levels of 7705 and 7650, some good support for aussie at 7723

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cloased EURO shorts NOW @ 1,2541 from 1.2578

Global-View 17:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

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Dallas GEP 17:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.2537 on EUro NEW low, MORE BEER!!

Quezon Mailman 17:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad seems silent, not following eur, chf move.

LA saint3 17:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
what happened to cable?
all the way down ... no stopping

Helsinki iw 17:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Once the stoplosses are done in cable, EUR/GBP is good
for another 80-100 pips on the downside and GBP/CHF is good
for new highs. That trend is still unbroken. IMHO

London 17:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
: Gold Drops $6.00 On Surging Dollar

Pecs Andras 17:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Your other beer is brewing too! LOL

Barcelona JP 17:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP

Do you want me to pay that beer as well?

sf mike 17:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Symmetrical triangle on 30 minute charts on EUR, CHF and JPY. this could be another 100 pips push in the same direction.

Barcelona JP 17:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
If cable takes out 1,8641, it will go down to 1,8513.

I think.

ıst sez. 17:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW,
Friend ,you are very good at your predictions
You predicted earlier messeges eur go down.
I highly respect to your profession.

Quezon Mailman 17:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Has everybody called it a day? Today was not a good day, adopted dollar bear strategy. Next week hope to be a better trading week.

Dallas GEP 17:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
KUUES, POUND made a new low 1.8662, WHERE"S my beer???? Euro next?????

Oakland Daimyo 16:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Do not mistake Sellers are in control for the time being.

Nottingham 16:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...a close at/below 1.3440 leaves long vulnerable...really ought to hold today if usd move is genuine...gl gt

USA Biscuit Boy 16:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys. Chose not to trade today and I am glad. A lot of margin calls went out today to fellow traders on my platform and I can only assume elsewhere. I think it would be premature to be calling a reversal of trend based on the past 3 days price action. Very premature. A lot of specs sent packing and we are still mid range. ECB is happy with a 1.25-1.28 range and we may see whippy range trading for a while now. GL and good weekend.

Stockholm za 16:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw....... EUR/USD......
Spike establish on 55.......
Key = [ ( Ema 89 + BU T-line ) - Your Eggo ]
Clip = [ ( RSI 14 < 30 ) + ( ema 144 failure ) ]
Happy trades........

Dallas GEP 16:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
KUUES I betcha a six pack of beer that Eur prints 1,2537 or lower (NEW LOW) TODAY. May not have enough steam as you say but WTH????

Ldn 16:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Morgan Stanley's analyst C. Ted Wright says current levels close to 0.80 no longer attractive for longer-term investors; U.S. firm estimates AUD/USD as much as 25% overvalued, so near-term rise should be used to exit long-term AUD/USD longs

earlier report

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
holidays positions are closing.
let's start all the USD upmove next week.

nyc jk 16:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
lol iw

ICT ML 16:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bermuda KW 16:34: we'll get up there to 1.95XX-2.1XXX....after we regroup down here for a bit.......can't fight the market..used to do that all the time, and ALWAYS LOST......better to be WITH the market.....

nyc beyonding_destiny 16:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 16:41 GMT February 20, 2004

partially agree...still feel carry the short over weekend is dangous ...let's c around 00:00 on monday..GL,GT

Tartu kuues 16:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gotta run now lets see on monday how this crazy week ended
GL everybody

Bermuda KW 16:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Oakland Daimyo.

london cam 16:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bermuda KW 16:34 GMT February 20, 2004
I think GBPUSD is heading for 2.00. Its a question of when. If only currencies moved in a linear fashion but then again unlikely we would have a market.

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
KUUES, OK Maybe on Cable NO but Euro has a shot IMO

Wellington am 16:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
$/yen seems to have found a top. terror threat + BOJ intervention - hardly sustainable drivers. Great op. for $/yen shorts next week.

Pecs Andras 16:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW for cable
Based on the hourly, the last rally from 8055 (Jan 30th) to 9140 (Febr 18th) has 8720 as 38.2% (breached not long ago), 8592 as 50% and 8465 as 61.8%.

nyc beyonding_destiny 16:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
crazy, crazy, crazy....$/yen has show 'unlimit' upside pontential...more S/L buying and thin volatilities in the end of weekend and followed by Sun night Asian session may push it through 110...

Oakland Daimyo 16:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bermuda Tgt for GBP/USD is 1.8578 1st then 1.85

Barcelona JP 16:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I've shorted cable at 1,8746. I got back my 30 pips lost in euro trade.
Thank you cable.

Tartu kuues 16:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP - what i meant was i STILL dont belive there is enough power left for today for making new low
GL GT

Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Kuues, What I meant was I expect new lows in both Cable and Euro STILL today.

Bermuda KW 16:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi All. What's your opinion GBP/USD? We're quite a bit off the highs right now...why? I thought it was headed for 2.00!

Atlanta 16:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in January, marking the fastest rate since February 2003, the Labor Department said Friday

Pecs Andras 16:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 16:29 GMT February 20, 2004
A never understood this. Even if you were scalping, why would it be bad for your broker?
They would get the spread more times. Is it not better for them than having somebody with a few trades per week only?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Quezon Mailman 15:52 GMT February 20, 2004
for eur/usd analysis, please follow my trade strategy that have posted here. (just for you .LOL)

Barcelona Tony... I am madcow. LOL

Nottingham 16:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
While further extensions are possible, the fact that we'd be closing at highs/lows for week means retracement next week, at some stage, is a given...in fact the further we move away from break-out levels today, the more likely they are to be traded next week (plus increased chances of them marking low/high for next week too)...gl gt

Helsinki iw 16:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
If what I read in my wife´s girlie magazines is true, Bruce has
indeed gone down more than a few times.

prauge viktor 16:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nycjk its a very nice song....

ICT ML 16:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
london cam :....if only it were that easy.......fund manager...not my choice, clients choice....have some things in the work though.
Thanks for the offer.

nyc jk 16:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AMMAN HUMBLY BUBBLY 16:24 GMT February 20, 2004

In the words of Bruce Springsteen,
"I'm goin down down down down,I'm goin down down down down goin down down down"

Tartu kuues 16:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP - eur is down more yhan 200 pips
further move is limited
yes i agree two days ago it was 250 pips
but 12540/20 should be strong level next is 12350
its just running out of steam today

chicago 16:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
2490 euro

AMMAN HUMBLY BUBBLY 16:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
HI ALL OF U THERE ? I JUST LIKE TO KNOW WHATS YOUR OPNION ABOUT THE EURO AND WHERE DO U EXPECT TO GO

london cam 16:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML. Why not change brokers? I've been using mine for nearly 2 years, enjoy some of the tightest spreads around and always get filled at the quoted price. The only problem I've had is the platform going down twice this year. Drop me an email through Jay and I'll let you know who they are.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Today is the avalanche delayed for 2 months.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nice caught of gbp/jpy from 202.50.

trail at 203.

Barcelona Tony 16:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I remember someone saying my 2490 level as mad cow because of my macd position ... well, glad to see who is the mad cow now

AMMAN HUMBLY BUBBLY 16:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
HI ALL OF U THERE ? I JUST LIKE TO KNOW WHATS YOUR OPNION ABOUT THE EURO AND WHERE DO U EXPECT TO GO

Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
KUUES, I wouldn't count on it!!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Looks like bids are being absorbed again Watch 1.2550 level carefully. 1.2520 IF this breaks.

ICT ML 16:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
TW....I stopped the scalping many months ago....LOL...thye just like to screw with me I guess..on the phone doing a bit a screwing myself to someone bout' it right now...

Brissy JM 16:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 16:08 - Thanks, I also think there may be further EUR downside so for tonight kept my short with target at 1.2484, stop at entry 1.2621. G/L G/T

Bris TW 16:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 16:07 GMT Maybe you have been scalping as much as I do. My broker has been acting up alot lately. Up to 30 seconds till fill, mysterious moves when all other feeds dont so my stop is hit and phone calls trying to sell me products LOL.
Maybe we should start a class action

Dallas GEP 16:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Short 1.2578 Don't try tis at hom!!! Stop 1.2607

Tartu kuues 16:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
all lows and highs done for this week

Gold Coast martin 16:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
BRIS....the euro should trade for the remainder of this session between 12525 and 12555.....prepare for a drop to 12420 by the end of mondays new york session session .....and then by end of tuesdays new york session euro to move up to 12650...g/l g/t

ICT ML 16:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP...they froze me AGAIN man.....

Nottingham 16:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta 15:59 GMT

I'd add that last year my o/b or o/s yielded 13 trading ops in usdcad...this year we've had 4 already (including todays) which suggest a bit more volatility this year and thus chances of secondary o/b levels being reached greater...it have to work that way and instead we may get a lot more 1st levels hit instead...in the end it doesn't really matter>>>if you see it play if not do nothing imo...gl gt

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, the real happiness is the long dlr.chf recommended from nt.

1.2205, 1.2268

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well ML, that's what you get for NOT listening to ME!!!! LOL

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
yes, a break of .67 will make this eur dive more sustainable and must be achieved in the few coming session.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
and Kevin, and I have a suspecision that Asian banks have stepped in tonight.

ICT ML 16:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP......don't be man...I got 60 pips off that thing.....I am a happy camper

ICT ML 16:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thats more like it..they're hammering eur/gbp again......

Dallas GEP 16:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML, I reallly misread that usd/jpy earlier, sorry. I knew there was somebody with his big ole BUTTT sitting on 108.00 but he was no match for the MOF who I DIDn't expect to come in.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 16:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, if the momentum is enough, I have the confidence to hit the gap on dlr/jpy
but I think an exit on 110 first is reasonable.

Atlanta 15:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham thanks

Gold Coast martin 15:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
still trying to work it out bris..will give you answer in 10 minutes

hk vitus 15:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone heard that the Japanese are on their highest alert on fear of a terror attack, and the Yen dived?

Bris TW 15:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 15:51 GMT
LOL EU ZORRO will be back between 1.2250 and 1.2340

Nottingham 15:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta 15:54 GMT

I never rule anything out when panic is about...it is entirely possible that cad eur and aussie see those levels but can say for sure

Brissy JM 15:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin - do you think there is ny further downside in EUR it seems to have bounced well off the 1.2540 level? thanks

Bris TW 15:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
After crunching some more numbers 1.2517 Low from 6th Feb provides some decent support after 1.2538. Below 1.2517 will target 1.2424.
1.2579 should cap the current bounce for the mean time.

Dallas GEP 15:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
DAIMYO, c ya later.

LA AKAI 15:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
RE:HK/Kevin
Hi budy!
Long time didn;t hear from You.
Are You trade loney this time???
GL/GT

Dublin Flip 15:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well good to see some very good calls guys.
While it's not always that groovy let's hope a few have had a good day and hope those that didn't remember "there is always tommorrow".
Keep up the cruisy vibe you you fellow ozzies

beijing road 15:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Omil: are you around, sir?

Atlanta 15:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham do you see those levels you posted achievable today cheers

Livingston nh 15:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
US equities getting inflation sense as they extend yesterday afternoon drop and bonds are starting to wake up -

Quezon Mailman 15:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
RAden, are you still there? thoughts on the euro. thanks.

Nottingham 15:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usdcad contra short now done 30 pips from 1st o/b so technically fulfilled but with gaps to filled near prev resistance at 40/50 we may see a bit more...personally have covered and will short towards 2nd o/b if seen...glt

slv sam 15:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
everybody was talking about need of correction...well here we have it..it is time to load euro again!GT

dc fxq 15:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Where is EU Zorro now that all the Euro bulls really need him?

Oakland Daimyo 15:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I'm out for now. Try again later. Maybe NY close

Dallas GEP 15:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Got stopped out on that last short try. MAY bounce up 30-50 pips from here then short back down will see

HK Kevin 15:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, congrulation. USD/JPY looks had hit stop at 109.

Oakland Daimyo 15:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP No worries --1.2550 will not hold today.

Gold Coast martin 15:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hey HK hope you are collecting from selling the wife....

nyc jk 15:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
good point BOCA. In fact I am intently watching the news wires, expecting Trichet to be on any minute expressing disgust with the "brutal " EUR move lol

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 15:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nice running...

set my t/p on dlr/jpy 110 from 107.05.
and the yummy thing is the nzd put .70 and .7050.

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1,2567stop now may get hit tho

B.A. BOCA 15:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
i'm sure the BOJ won't have a problem with 'volatile' forex moves to their benefit.. censored of week! but not ready to throw in the $ bear towel yet.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 15:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
wow my long dlr/jpy!!!

Pecs Andras 15:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 15:40 GMT February 20, 2004
Just today we had 330 pips on cable. If you count the high of this week on Wednesday, you have already got the 500 pips
Amazing

Bris TW 15:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin
Good low call on Euro..but I guess you have seen not many like bigheadedness in this forum. hehe. Not to worry many are watching and your calls will be thanked.

Va Raven 15:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Expecting more waves down and stocks should be down too saying the "honey moon is over".

Nottingham 15:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
euro...1st o/s 1.2470 2nd 1.24
aussie...........0.7705.......7650

Dallas GEP 15:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
IN more short from 1.2550 stop 1.2563

beijing road 15:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hope eur will hold 1.2510 today.

Ldn 15:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold falling below $400 Soon

Sydney gvm 15:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Classic short $ squeeze - this could easily run minimum 500 points on everything/$ in the next few weeks

ICT ML 15:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
out of $Y at 109.01...heard there are exporters lined up there....

Va Raven 15:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Should say euro bulls are everywhere looking for exits.....

Helsinki iw 15:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/USD breaking weeks lows. Another bearish sign.
1,2310/30next, which is max pain for long term holders of euro
Bit o/s short term

Oakland Daimyo 15:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Selling pressure is still increasing, looks like there is more room to go. Took profit twice looking to go in again.

Toronto Bogdan 15:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
So...what happened to the dollar? They caught Bin Laden? (again?)

Nottingham 15:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...1st o/b 1.3505 2nd 1.3560...prev 3 tops have been taken out so panic has set in...expected to test 1.3420/40 area next week before fresh high 1.37/1.41 poss...gl gt

Bris TW 15:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Sorry GEP I should have put both levels at same time I hope you didnt close at 80 when 50 or less was possible.

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
A little early it seems!!! LOL But BANK it and DON'T APOLOGIZE for it is my view.

beijing road 15:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR bulls is gone.....................

Pecs Andras 15:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
This is scary
Thank God I did not enter the contra cable long at 8730

beijing road 15:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR seems to take the low 1.2564 of last week out.

Bris TW 15:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
If not little resistance untill 1.2516

Gold Coast martin 15:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
i am at broadbeach brisbane

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Closed Euro shorts @ 1.2580

Gold Coast martin 15:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
In gold coast australia london

Bris TW 15:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.2572 should give some bounce maybe 20-50 pips

Gold Coast martin 15:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thanks for the compliment nyc....i am always learning....

london 15:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cad broke 134.4 MASSIVE CORRECTION NOW UNDER WAY 141 MINIMUM. sorry to shout but have been on board from 132 gts

Ldn 15:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin where are you actually

Bris TW 15:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Where on the Coast are you Martin? I have a house on The Isle of Capri. Currently in Brisbane City.

Mumbai MT 15:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell me whats happening on USD/JPY??

ICT ML 15:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
You $Y guys, should I leave TP limit at 108.91 or move it up...want it to close today though....

nyc jk 15:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
martin, great call on EUR, AUD. should point out that its 10.30 am in NY though, guess you Gold Coast fellas start work a little later than we do in ny !!

Tallinn viies 15:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ok, now I must admit that even 1,2500/10 would be possible today...
have a nice w/e

Gold Coast martin 15:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hope you mortgaged everything as you stated earlier tonite HK....

Ldn 15:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin on the ropes, this is the lift I mentioned today for the Aud. but I must say didnt expect such a drop for the Euro.

prauge viktor 15:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
your not ronge gep there was about13h cet a lot of street talking about pushing the euro to the 1,247..and the Boj is going to do it if we want or not.

Gold Coast martin 15:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.5 hoursinto new york trading and aud at .7780 and euro heading south to 12540.....

AlexVA Dennis 15:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hou 15:23 GMT

Its been on the wires since earlier. They have gone to US equivalent of Code Red or Defcon 1.

Ldn Mvs 15:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hou 15:23 GMT
AP ran story that Japan has gone to its highest alert lvl since the start of the war in Iraq in March - this after the explosion at Defense Ministry two days ago, so fear of attacks on the increase as a result

Oakland Daimyo 15:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP I'm in the hunt w/ you.

Moscow Hawk 15:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin, I pointed my target two days ago. And your comments look like a pure censored. Just try to chill and try to think how not be so funny.

Moscow Hawk 21:32 GMT February 18, 2004

…On the market note for the aussie I have the next target 0.7770-10 after 0.7920-50 break.
And the most important developments took place in USD/JPY today. USD/JPY is buying dips now…

Dallas GEP 15:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GGFFTT's feed is hosed!!!

Hou 15:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
anyone hear about a terror alert in Japan?

Ldn 15:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Austria"s Liebscher: Intervention Always Possible

ATlanta 15:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
US CPI helps USD remain on sound footing this week, says Michael Woolfolk at BoNY. "It increases the prospects of the Fed raising interest rates later this year," if annual core CPI stays above 1%. Reuters

Dallas GEP 15:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML I think Cal may be right and I may be wrong RE: USD/JPY VERY VERY bullish PLUS euro and pound will break

Dallas GEP 15:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Pound has made new low....BIDS being absorbed here and on Euro GREAT fight though!!! LOL

chicago cal 15:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thanks ict; 109.00 is in play today maybe 110.00 if held over the weekend

agree, betting against my trades is like betting against the globetrotters

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
really sorry friends.. wrong typo again. LOL
Trade Strategy follow the trend of eur/usd :
1. Sell at 1.2752 for target 1.2691 after show you 1.2590 (bid)
2. Sell at 1.2745 for target 1.2683 after show you 1.2580 (bid)
3. Sell at 1.2704 for target 1.2627 after show you 1.2580 (bid)
4. Sell at 1.2692 for target 1.2608 after show you 1.2472 (bid)
5. Sell at 1.2590 for target 1.2497 after show you 1.2368 (bid)

beijing road 15:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
WOW, usd is getting stronger and strong.

ICT ML 15:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP...they froze me up again.....unreal

Ldn 15:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
NZD/USD: CTA Selling Seen with more stops ahead.

Atlanta 15:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin good work , we are nearly at your Euro and the Aud

Gold Coast martin 15:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
have a good weekend ruski.i have made my target of 7780 that i stated to you 5 hours agobut you laughed.hope you retract your comments towards me

Dallas GEP 15:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trying euro short with 1.2653 stop (1.2630 short traded)

Livingston nh 15:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
IGROK - RE: JPY - very timely call //

ICT ML 15:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thanks cal:......a bit late though.....but size in this trade is barely big enough to cover lunch if it really breaks free.....LOL

BTW...been on many of the same trades lately....pays good:->

Moscow Hawk 15:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
My target 0.7770-10 in AUD/USD is met. I think it is a nice zone to book profits at least partial.

Have a good weekend.

WAsh DC Tempus 15:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Beware these levels ......

A break of 1.2620 should yield 1.2550 and below that 1.2430....
USD Correction is at hand....
There are an abundnace of EUR to sell and large players are not buying as they have in the past.....
ECB can cetainly thank the BOJ for leading this USD turn

Gold Coast martin 15:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
it was 12540 range by the end of ny session and .7780 for aud.

Paris jony 15:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
gep by the ichmoku ther is a lot to come on the up side usypand on the down side gbpusd and eurous good luck all

chicago cal 15:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
or just begin you weekend early like i'm doing

Livingston nh 15:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML - 1.84 seems doable (maybe not today!!) on a break of 21 da mva (last correction was good for 8) - thanx

Atlanta 15:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin , hi there , what was your level on the Euro I missed it cheers

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 15:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc// Your lesson worths million to read at all times.

chicago cal 15:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ict ml:

108.45 on usd/jpy is widely viewed as a pivot point; i'd buy on a break or just the opposite if R seems to hold

gl,gt

ICT ML 15:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
too late, I got on in a small way anyway for kicks....first time in a few years I mess with this thing though...LOL

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 15:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc// This isn't the big fire yet, is it?

Gold Coast martin 15:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hey london dude...are you beginning to believe?

Dallas GEP 15:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML My feeling is it is too late to get on ML RE USD/JPY. I think MOF wanted to break that guy who was sitting on 108.00

Ldn 15:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Aussie and Kiwi CAD all being unloaded today big time BC was Correct , just wonder how far they will fall .

beirut jb 14:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
euro should hold here, starting loading long

stop 12550

ICT ML 14:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nh....my next chart level is 1.8515-20.....with a catch all ema200 4 hr at 1.8425 right noww....those would be a stretch though don't you think?

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 14:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
next week could be a free fall for all the commodities. jimvho.

Tallinn viies 14:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
so far I am still confident that last week low at 1,26 will hold.
buying in front of that prefered. stop at 1,2589 fwiw
gl

Va Raven 14:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well, NH, having known you for years, I can understand that the trades once you nailed down right, they would produce some real decent "numbers" for you. Good luck, mate!

GA TJ 14:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Here is my plan to overcome any urges to enter any new positions today.

When I get the urge I shall open desk drawer, insert fingers, slam drawer very very hard.

GL to all. Move stop to B/E on the long Loonie. Going to walk away.

Livingston nh 14:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML - how much downside in Cable on a break of your 45 lvl?

shanghai bc 14:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

KEVIN 14;36 -- Good evening..Eur/Gbp fell through 250 dma for the second time in the middle of Jan. while eur/Usd was reaching for 1.29 and that was a bad omen for Eur/usd..Guess it may try to organize some bounce in .6700-.6750 region lifting Eur/usd a bit,but it may be just a bounce rather than sustained rise of Eur/usd for some weeks..imho..

Barcelona JP 14:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
well, I lost 30 to be greed

ICT ML 14:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP...where you think $Y stops today now?...too late to get on?

Atlanta. 14:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Aud/USD breaking of the 38.2% retracement of the 7545 -
7995 rally, at 7825 brings next major support at 7720.

chicago cal 14:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy longs just tripped

gl,gt

Dallas GEP 14:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am going to get me a shirt that sayS:

"Global View: The PIP stops here"

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 14:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
commodities are repeating disaster.

Brissy JM 14:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Support on AUD here at previous high 7813. we'll see if it holds

Dallas GEP 14:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
No ML, it's that MOF terror alert!!!

GA TJ 14:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 14:42 GMT February 20, 2004
dammit..spent all night getting out of gbp/jpy and now it takes off like a bat out of censored again....

Been there. Done that. Last week I think. But nobody gave me a tee shirt.

Pecs Andras 14:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML
8730 is a strong hourly fibo. And her Majesty likes to rebound strongly from such support. I will be a buyer there with tight stop

Eastbourne PJ 14:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Closed my Euro shorts, might re-short if higher levels seen again.

Livingston nh 14:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Raven - had a lot of dumb luck (in and out) - never thought CAD would get so strong but GBP move saved evrything - GBP/CAD could be good short here if CAD doesn't collapse

SanFranciso tg 14:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Has to be BOJ propping up AudYen here

ICT ML 14:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
dammit..spent all night getting out of gbp/jpy and now it takes off like a bat out of censored again....

Must be the JAP terror alert?

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 14:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I am sure that these indicators have some sort of lagging factor and even I buy eur,I will buy them next week or at ny low.

Barcelona Tony 14:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
$ view is right, but WTF with yen is hurting my eurjpy and gbpjpy positions ...

GA TJ 14:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML

To me there are conflicting signals. Cable is acting like it wants an all out correction. However, GBPJPY doesn't seem to have any desire to follow. Thinking that the best idea is to remain flat these pairs and let the other traders beat the censored out of each other. Then, being the nice guy that I am, I will join the winning team.

Flat all but CAD Long from 1.3295 entered last night.

ICT ML 14:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ANdras....NO!....I'd buy a strong bounce that clears the clutter only........in market full of CHUM right now.....LOL

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Better like this for eur/usd.
you can trade with limit order follow this numbers.
Trade Strategy counter the trend :
1. Buy at 1.2605 for target 1.2715 stp 1.2575
2. Buy at 1.2515 for target 1.2708 stp 1.2452
3. Buy at 1.2383 for target 1.2580 stp 1.2348

Brissy JM 14:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Here we go! volatility again!! GO USD/JPY

Dallas GEP 14:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
BOJ push past 108.00 didn't think they would do that at this time

nyc jk 14:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
yeah Tony, feel like that alot of times in this business! haha gl gt

Va Raven 14:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nice trades, NH, your 1.43 usd/cad target would send eur/usd under 1.2 for sure.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 14:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
safe arrival 108
my 110 coming soon
next is short eur/gbp till .66

HK Kevin 14:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc, good evening. EUR follows its downtrend in recent days, but EUR/GBP holds 6710 and EUR/JPY keeps rising, does it imply tht some traders are working on the other front?

Barcelona Tony 14:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, yes agree, 250 hourly ema will cap any rally so far

Pecs Andras 14:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML
Would you be a buyer at 8730?

ICT ML 14:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
well, if cable is going to turn into a full blown correction, then I think 1.8815 area needs to cap any rallies, and it needs to crush my critical support at 1.8735-40. It bounced off the first time pretty good....but looks to be trying again.....appears to be in a little bear flag right now on 15 min charts.....so we'll see what the big guns have planed today...

Barcelona JP 14:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Japan in highest alert.

AP

Barcelona Tony 14:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:24 GMT .. I absolutely agree with you .... WTF we know! LOL, LMAO :-)

Livingston nh 14:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Helloooo Raven - agree CAD has been the leader of the parade but I'm not sure it goes to the back yet (maybe stops for a drink) -- I have been moving out of GBP/CAD (Oilman promised 2.50 for me at Christmas) and into USD/CAD for at least 1.43 so I hope the loonie stays in line here// It will be interesting to see how the inflation data starts to be absorbed into the market (when does 1/4 point Fed move in August change from being pre-emptive to "behind the curve")

Best to you

prauge viktor 14:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hello Gep there is a lot of talk about pushing euro to 1,247 level what u think about it thanks.!!!!!

Eastbourne PJ 14:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Added to my Euro shorts at 1.2655

nyc jk 14:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
why you guys all bullish on EUR now? looks like it is ready to get smashed again imo, but wtf do I know lol

Va Raven 14:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
NH, the order could be EUR, CHF, AUD, cable and CAD.
CAD has been well priced in earlier in your order across the board, so it should draw some strength (from time to time) from the crosses to slow the path of fall against dollar relatively. The point is that if we bet on a correction in dollar, the money is in eur/usd from here instead of usd/cad level at 1.34. Say, if we see eur/usd at 1.2370 from here 1.2670, usd/cad might be a little over 1.3470. Just a thought.

Barcelona JP 14:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bought eur at 1,2661. I go for 10 pips at least.

Quezon Mailman 14:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I feel euro and cable will team up in the next few minutes - up.

Barcelona Tony 14:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
WTF ,,,,...

chicago cal 14:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
i view this consolidation in the eur/usd and gbp/usd as a short term buying opportunity i'm long on both pairs

gl,gt

nyc jk 14:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
thanks for the perspective bc. the ny cabbies may be touting the EUR as well, but no one is paying any attention to them after they were all giving bullish tips on tech stocks at NASDAQ 5000 lol

Barcelona JP 14:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Lets look at euro to take positions.
Our proxy, now, I guess.

shanghai bc 14:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

For traders who trade on daily and weekly charts,it has been obvious for sometime that Dollar has been far too overstretched on all fronts especially against high yielders..This Dollar-dead-cat bounce may last some 4-8 weeks making most short-term Dollar bears bleed and turn into short-term Dollar bulls in the end..Then,the next round of murderous Dollar bear campaign will start..Nothing fundamental has changed except London,Beijing and Tokyo taxi drivers started giving out tips to tourists to buy Euro to get rich quick..Fwiw..

Porto PJT 14:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for inputs re cad , dificult market today for me, flat so far maybe till next week untl i can see more clear picture.

Barcelona JP 14:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Manila

I'm not in. Euro didn't follow cable.

Barcelona JP 14:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Look at cable RSI. 5' TF.

Quezon Mailman 14:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 14:09 GMT February 20, 2004

Are you in now? GBP has reached your buy target. thanks.

Barcelona JP 14:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur has problems with 1,2670 and cable stops.
To be sure, euro must break 1,2670 and then cable will go to 1,8870

Gen dk 14:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

B.A. BOCA 14:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
shift in fundamentals may be coming....but not yet

Barcelona JP 14:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I think also that at 18:00 gmt people will close their shorts.

Livingston nh 14:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/Cad has stayed above the 21 da mva and MACD is rising - technicals are bullish for USD/CAD and the fundamental fact of a weaker Canadian economy with low inflation gives BoC more room to cut // in weakest marching order CAD, CHF, EUR, AUD, and cable - the first three have had MACD failures AUD and cable to follow but only CAD has crossed 21 da mva over 55 da EMA - CHF will be next

Barcelona JP 14:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I'll do it at 1.8810. Target: 18870

Quezon Mailman 14:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I agree with you Barcelona JP. I already bought cable @1.8778 with tight stop 1.8758.

Nottingham 14:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:56 GMT

Glad I'm not the only one that noticed s&p showing signs of weakness at the same time as this week's $ bounce...if imbalances exist,which they do, can't have cake and eat it...so take your pick...strong equities and weak dollar or vice a versa

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

Corection of my wrong typo :
hey friends here, maybe my view can help you.
Analysis :
Eur/usd still down trend.
Important level :
a. 1.2590 potential up to get 1.2720
b. 1.2580 potential up to get 1.2713
c. 1.2500 potential up to get 1.2713
d. 1.2472 potential up to get 1.2568
e. 1.2368 potential up to get 1.2585

Trade Strategy counter the trend :
1. Buy at 1.2605 for target 1.2715 stp 1.2575
2. Buy at 1.2515 for target 1.2708 stp 1.2480
3. Buy at 1.2487 for target 1.2643 stp 1.2452
4. Buy at 1.2383 for target 1.2580 stp 1.2343

Trade Strategy follow the trend :
1. Sell at 1.2752 for target 1.2691 after show you 1.2590 (bid)
2. Sell at 1.2745 for target 1.2683 after show you 1.2580 (bid)
3. Sell at 1.2704 for target 1.2627 after show you 1.2580 (bid)
4. Sell at 1.2692 for target 1.2708 after show you 1.2609 (bid)
5. Sell at 1.2590 for target 1.2497 after show you 1.2368 (bid)

Please test this strategy to your real trade, I hope you can trade with good risk control


My Best Regards,

Raden Mas

Barcelona JP 13:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I think cable is a buy if can trade over 1,8800

Nottingham 13:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 13:54 GMT

cad v weak today but unless majors follow its unlikely to take 3420/40 resistance today...gl gt

HK [email protected] 13:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
It may take some time to digest the fundamental that Japan and China (and so other C.B) may reduce their support of the $$$, as they may decrease their prchase of US treasuries.
Stock market too may look little less rosy.
What can other say please.

Livingston nh 13:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - strange moves because the rubes in the bond market are being fed the "core" inflation scam - once that is sorted out things should start to move

SanFranciso tg 13:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Feels like Sterling lacks conviction today for selling right now.

Porto PJT 13:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Anyone looking to sell usd/cad here or expecting a break?sell at 85+ with a stop or reverse at 1,3435 could work.

Brissy JM 13:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AlexVA Dennis - When has PPI been postponed till? Thanks

London London 13:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Buba Revises Dec German Indus Output Down

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 13:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hm... strange combination of move.

Melb dd 13:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know when the PPI info news is coming out?
TIA

Atlanta 13:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Aussie at important trendline?? here

Dallas GEP 13:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
CPI certainly was dollar positive!!!! 5%

AlexVA Dennis 13:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
It will now be extremely interesting to see what the "new, improved" PPI numbers will be after the postponement of release. Could the "I" word be creeping into the Fed vocabulary in the near future? IMBO this makes a rate hike sooner rather than later inevitable, esp. if we see a repeat next month.

atlanta 13:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Weak Canada Jan CPI Rise Seen Favoring March Rate Cut

Pecs Andras 13:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Raden
Check your numbers pls.
Some of them are not right

Ldn 13:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
US ECON: Jan CPI Rises 0.5%, Core +0.2%, Strong

Ldn 13:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
US Jan Consumer Prices +0.5%; Consensus +0.3%

Gen dk 13:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 13:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Out at .6735 on eur/gbp short for a few pips

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hey friends here, maybe my view can help you.
Analysis :
Eur/usd still down trend.
Important level :
a. 1.2590 potential up to get 1.2720
b. 1.2580 potential up to get 1.2713
c. 1.2500 potential up to get 1.2713
d. 1.2472 potential up to get 1.2368
e. 1.2368 potential up to get 1.2585

Trade Strategy counter the trend :
1. Buy at 1.2605 for target 1.2715 stp 1.2575
2. Buy at 1.2515 for target 1.2708 stp 1.2480
3. Buy at 1.2487 for target 1.2643 stp 1.2348

Trade Strategy follow the trend :
1. Sell at 1.2752 for target 1.2691 after show you 1.2590 (bid)
2. Sell at 1.2745 for target 1.2683 after show you 1.2580 (bid)
3. Sell at 1.2704 for target 1.2627 after show you 1.2580 (bid)
4. Sell at 1.2692 for target 1.2708 after show you 1.2609 (bid)
5. Sell at 1.2590 for target 1.2497 after show you 1.2368 (bid)

Please test this strategy to your real trade, I hope you can trade with good risk control


My Best Regards,

Raden Mas

Note : is yahoo error now?. I can not sending e-mail

Eastbourne PJ 13:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:12 GMT February 20, 2004

I trade well within my margin limits and will consciously cut a position if it does not look right. I am constanctly monitoring my positions and on balance, I am far better off trading without stops. That is not to say that others should as well.

Barcelona JP 13:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
London CAM

My source is UBS

london cam 13:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
obrigado Porto PJT

Livingston nh 13:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ger ad - GBP/CAD has benefit from CAD weakness - Cdn CPI only 0.1% in Jan - GBP more extended than EUR (a break belo 21 da mva for both would be rising EUR/GBP)

Quebec YQB 13:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Finally closed my long EUR/GBP

Porto PJT 13:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
london cam 13:05 , pop up same here in window from broker telling source is bloomberg.

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Eastbourne PJ 12:43.
Is that rather like driving without brakes? Markets can move into hundreds of pips before u can get a price. Would rather put a stop however wide otherwise one day(God Forbid) you might have your entire capital up in flames.

Dallas GEP 13:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Helll with that JP I did it earlier!!! LOL

USD/CAD BULLISH spurt

Ldn pm 13:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP - in that case it is bound to collapse !! Good luck and have a good weekend

GER ad 13:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/CAD recover more than 140 pips after the sell of 1.5 hours ago. Will EUR/GBP follow?

london cam 13:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 12:55 GMT February 20, 2004
Russia to support trading oil in euros.

JP has this been confirmed? source?
If correct then the long term implications for the USD and the global economy are not good.

Barcelona JP 13:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thank you: London

By the way, I think EUR/GBP is a sell now.
I won't do it, I just say it.

Eastbourne PJ 13:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well closed my gbp/usd short a little earlier for 11 pips. I'm finding today a great day for some range trading in this pair, in fact I've have been in and out 7 times today for a total of 86 pips. I'm only initiating sell trades then closing them as I feel this has been the safer.

Quezon Mailman 13:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Glad to be back again. Friends, anyone looking to long gbp/usd at this point (too much oversold)? thanks.

Ldn pm 12:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP - I should state right here that I have no association with your broker. I know it is very frustrating to be stopped out at the top/bottom - happened many times to me in years gone by - but a stop is a stop - would you have been happier if they had stopped you out at say 1.2780 (if it had dealt) with them saying they had tried to keep you in but failed. Its almost a no win situation and depends on the relationship (if any) that you have with your broker/bank - I trust they also filled any take-profit orders on Eur/$ longs at 1.2770 ??

Melbourne 12:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:50 GMT February 20, 2004
if buying aud/nzd from here is 300 a cool 300 pip profit, why are you disappointed?

Barcelona JP 12:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Russia to support trading oil in euros

Melbourne Qindex 12:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:50 GMT February 20, 2004
EUR/USD : In an extreme volatile market the market can tackle the level at 1.2383* - 1.2514*.


... // 1.2383* - 1.2514* - 1.2645* // ...


After Expansion


... // 1.2383* - 1.2448 - 1.2514* - 1.2580 - 1.2645* // ...




Melbourne Qindex 22:52 GMT February 19, 2004
EUR/USD : My current 22-day cycle reference indicates that a projected resistant level is positioning at 1.2751 - 1.2776. The current expected trading range is 1.2645 - 1.2776. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.2383.


... // 1.2645* - 1.2678 - 1.2710 - 1.2743 - 1.2776* // ...

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
audnzd basically is preparing to break that 1.16 resistance.

and I am disappointed not to see any dips to load.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nt, btw, need to say thanks to your chf range suggested.

Oakland Daimyo 12:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thx farmacia--Just curious.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
JIMVHO, the whole move was just due to unwinding of dlr/jpy shorts and jpy carry.

Leeds Jim 12:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gettng back to US data, January's CPI due out at 1330GMT

melbourne farmacia 12:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 12:32 GMT February 20, 2004
Just using fibo lines over hourly chart, had sell order in place since last night ( local time ). My fibs give me a good big picture from which to work in etc..

Nottingham 12:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Personally don't use stops but wouldn't ever advise as such

Eastbourne PJ 12:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona
I also shorted Euro at 1.2705 no stop, also had a short open shoprt position at 1.2677. Stayed up till late - called it a night then got up with pleasant surprise. FWIW I very rarely use stops, just monitor the posn like a hawk.

GER ad 12:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cable,
S/L moved to 1.8775 to lock on some profit.

Vilnius Phoenix 12:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 12:38 GMT February 20, 2004
Apologize. By the was my broker show max 1.2770, not 71

Oakland Daimyo 12:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Lack of upticks is getting frustrating. I've been in/out a couple of times tonight, w/ little success actually I'm down 5 pips. I'm finished for now this is ridiculous.

Barcelona JP 12:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
About the stops.

I shorted eur/usd yesterday at 1,2705. S/L: 1,2770
and then I went to sleep.
My stop was hit by only 1 PIP!!!!!
Since then, I'm out.
1 PIP!!!!!!!

AlexVA Dennis 12:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Likewise GEP's 12:34 comment.

Indonesia 12:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 08:29 GMT February 20, 2004
Shorted GBP/USD at 1.8850 target 1.8780
hats off to you! good call!!

AlexVA Dennis 12:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 12:25 GMT

Excellent advice, especially re: momentum playing as that seems to have decidedly shifted this week.

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
To further DAIMYO's comments. this market is VERY tricky. You have to have wide stops to allow for the uncertainty and quite frankly it may not be worth trading for most people. Take your 15-20 pips and RUN. Don't stay in the market too long on any one possie.

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 12:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Today I have been dealt one of my biggest ever, trading blow! What a price to pay for being a dollar bear on cable and eur. See you guys on monday. G L and GT to all that are still trading.

Oakland Daimyo 12:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia-- I also see a 1.8860 sell signal, are you using P&F triggers? I'm using a 20 x 1 and a 10 x 3

Eastbourne PJ 12:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Short cable again here at 1.8782. Lets see.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bought gbp/jpy 202.50

Nottingham Daniel 12:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AlexVA Dennis 12:22 GMT - Thanks

GVI john 12:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2665…$/yen 107.80
DJIA +12 pts… 10-yr 4.05%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI....

Oakland Daimyo 12:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Do not chase trades people. Lack of follow through is concerning. All boats should float together. I probably will regret not following my system but experience tells me something in the FX world is not "right". FWIW--GBP/USD sell signal came in under 1.8830, so we may see retest of this area before further fall. Standing aside for now. Trying to remind myself that I'm working a sell on uptick strat not momentum plays. I'm walking away before I get myself into trouble.

GER ad 12:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cable, S/L moved to 1.8755

Dallas GEP 12:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/gbp .6742

AlexVA Dennis 12:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 12:16 GM

In my view, this being a Friday, since we have already seen my projected daily high and low exceeded by some 15-20 pips on each side the range has been established. The most interesting action, given no major US data today, will come at the European and Noprth American closes . I am very curious to see whether we'll see shorts covering to square position for the weekend break or frustrating longs throw in the towel on positions taken earler in the week wqell above current levels.

Mumbai Jay 12:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
BC. Thanks for the perspective. With EURGBP getting a foothold above 0.67 and the EURJPY looking healthy, atleast EUR may be getting ready for the next leg up, IMHO.

melbourne farmacia 12:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Covered cable short from 1.8860 break for 100 pips fwiw. Looking for more opps later.

Melbourne Qindex 12:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD Index : The pattern of my monthly frequency chart suggests that the market has a tendency to trade between 84.81 - 86.87. It is likely that the market has reached the monthly cycle low at 84.77 on February 18. The market rhythm of the
monthly cycle is represented by 1.03. If the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 88.92, USD Index has a potential to tackle 90.98 within the remaining period of this month.


Nottingham Daniel 12:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Anyone a view on EuroUSD - going below today's low - it does seem to want to follow GBP!

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP, hard to tell, but I am closely monitoring now
I have a long at 107.05 and still holding this ride.

My weekly target is 110.

GER ad 12:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Long Cable at 1.8750 with a 50+ pips S/L expectng a close good over 1.88.

Dallas GEP 12:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AB, IMO we WILL NOT break 108.00 today

Nottingham 12:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
well there are gaps to fill 112.72-113.53/117.90-120.04, so entirely poss...just not in the game plan for even the biggest players imo

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 12:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am just curious to see if dlr/jpy will make the kind of panic move that it made in 2002

but northward this run.

Barcelona Tony 12:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy and audjpy shorts also in focus not done today ... gbp has touched my downtrend channel line,s o I should be expecting a bit of a bounce from here before news ... too early it has touched it makes me think of a fall below 8700 possible

Gen dk 12:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona Tony 12:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
well, gbp below 250 ema hourly ...

Nottingham 12:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Another 15 pips or so and eurgbp will be in weekly reversal territory...

Melbourne Qindex 11:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : 0.6743* is a quantised level in my 22-day cycle.

shanghai bc 11:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

To put things in perspective,high yield currencies were rising too fast too far in a given time being chased by hot-money and medium-term traders saw the opportunity to unload while short-term traders who never have the perspective of medium-term traders got squeezed as usual..However,we may not have seen the low of Dollar yet before it starts its reversal of decline since 2001..The question must be how deep this cleansing operation will be and from where Dollar will start its new round of decline again..Fwiw..

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nt, my bad habit is I always left pips on the eur and gbp!
:)

HK [email protected] 11:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:42 GMT
I am not into this pair indeed , but fast calculations shows me that 0.6699 is an exhuastive daily Fibo-target, though this is not an Iron rule.
Using slow Stoch. and I think daily ADX(though can get higher values) can be refered to in this case.

Saihat 11:50 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
any one see gbp get its low day

hong kong nt 11:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ab -- sell more GBP...

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Tony and RF

RF// which daily indicators are you using on that?

Ldn 11:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FX OPTIONS: AUD/USD Large 0.7850 Expiry stops 7825

Melbourne Qindex 11:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : If the market is trading below 1.2598, the next quantised level would 1.2598 - 95 pips = 1.2693.


Melbourne Qindex 22:15 GMT February 14, 2004
EUR/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.2787. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2598 // 1.2693 and the mid-point reference is 1.2645. The upper barrier is located at 1.2977 // 1.3072 and the mid-point reference is 1.3024. The market rhythm is represented by 95 pips (k=0.009475) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2598 - 1.23072. (Suggestion : The odds are in favour of maintaining a short position if the market is trading below 1.2787).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2598 // 1.2693, 1.2787, 1.2882, 1.2977 // 1.3072 ...

Chambery FR JFB 11:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 11:29 GMT February 20, 2004
Thx... for both letting me believe I might be smart after all :-) and for your explanations... I'll check that. Thanks for your inputs, much appreciated :-)

AlexVA Dennis 11:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 11:18 GMT February 20, 2004

It certainly seems like that is so. :)

Barcelona Tony 11:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
shorted gbpjpy 202.60 target 201.40

london cam 11:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ML. Now I see it! That's quite a move for the placid EURGBP.
Now I'm slightly tempted to short cable to 1.8700 but more likely to wait and see how things pan out on NY open.

Ldn 11:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AlexVA Dennis and they alway appear when the dollar shows a little strength, like the enron scandal someones up to something naughty

Melbourne Qindex 11:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to challenge the supporting strength of my weekly cycle barrier.

Melbourne Qindex 05:50 GMT February 15, 2004
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.8902. The lower barrier is expected at 1.8715 // 1.8808 and the mid-point reference is 1.8762 . The upper barrier is positioning at 1.9183 // 1.9276 and the mid-point reference is 1.9230 . The market rhythm is represented by 94 pips (k=0.009355) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.8715 - 1.9276 (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.8902).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.8715 // 1.8808, 1.8902, 1.8996, 1.9089, 1.9183 // 1.9276 ...


Gen dk 11:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:21 GMT February 20, 2004
EUR/USD Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2539 ... 1.2608 ... 1.2678 // 1.2660 - 1.2695 - 1.2712 - 1.2730 - 1.2747 - (1.2765) // 1.2782 ... 1.2834 ...

Melbourne Qindex 11:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:10 GMT February 20, 2004
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.8683 ... 1.8775 // 1.8805 ... 1.8866 - 1.8896 - (1.8927) - 1.8957 - 1.8987 ... 1.9048 - 1.9078 // 1.9109 ... 1.9170 ...

HK [email protected] 11:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:17 GMT

If I look on daily indicators for Eur/Gbp I'll rather be careful of reverse of trend

Barcelona Tony 11:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:30 GMT ... 8730 for gbp bottom if channel holds .. a break of the lower band of this downtrend channel well ... 1.8700 at least .... IMO this will be seen today, but I've said this many times and not happened, they have made too many fake spikes lately but when the right one comes will be non-stop

Moscow Hawk 11:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Tony, thanks. I like to see how you have managed to find the right way despite the market pressure. Good luck mate.

AlexVA Dennis 11:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 11:18 GMT February 20, 2004

Not to belittle the potential danger but it seems that these "threats" keep coming but with no real action. It makes one wonder if the is another WMD scam or ....

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Tony, do you have an anticipated bottom in the head?

Stockholm za 11:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FR JFB …. It has nothing with being smart… it is my short hand tech…. Sorry ..
Timeframe is for day charts (if not, other wise will be stated)
Yesterday’s failure to trade above ema 5 is very damaging for the pair….
At the moment we need to get trading above ~12677 for positive (bull value)
We are trading within the ema 34 magnet feel with ema 21 giving balance, however we are already feeling the pulling effect of ema 55…………..etc. etc…… Bla-bla-bla
Happy trades to you …..

Barcelona Tony 11:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
gbp trying to break 250 ema hourly..if it does, massive drop could be seen

Ga Lee 11:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp squaring ?

HK [email protected] 11:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 11:12 GMT February 20, 2004

A trader posted on another forum a simple view (many anyway did it themselves) which makes some sense. If you get a translator from french to english just enter ....

http://www.pro-at.com/frm/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=9894

Anyway your view may come true under certain conditions.

ICT ML 11:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Cam...eur/GBP buying...and it is screwing with me in a big way too....;-<

london cam 11:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
good morning guys. Any reason for the divergence between GBPUSD and EURUSD?

Melbourne Qindex 11:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The current expected trading range is 0.7845 - 0.7892 and the mid-point reference is 0.7869.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
indeed, eur/gbp worths a decent rebound no matter which m/t direction it goes.

Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 0.650* - 0.6713* - 0.6775* // ...


After Expansion


... // 0.6650* - 0.6682 - 0.6713* - 0.6744 - 0.6775* // ...

Tallinn viies 11:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 10:48 - thank you very much. pure luck :)

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
close all gbp shorts, taking a few hundred pips and leaving the eur short open and the chf long open.

LAX-LGB SNP 11:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dennis - maybe we should call up Mohammed Saiful Adel, who claims to be a representative of the fundamentalist militia

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
RF, 1.3xxx if eur/gbp can surpass and break the downtrend firm. daily ma 10 .6755, ma 20 .6803

Barcelona Tony 11:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk .. another good calls from you mate ... you're doing great so far I'm following you .. keep it up, really worth watching

Ldn Mvs 11:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Looks like eur/gbp breakout.........

AlexVA Dennis 11:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
"LAX-LGB SNP 10:59 GMT February 20, 2004
Taliban warns of attacks; says Bin Laden, Mullah Omar in Afghanistan (afxnews.com)"

Think they may have gotten caught long EURUSD and GBPUSD?

Barcelona Tony 11:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
oops ...LOL HK [email protected] 11:10 GMT ... I, sorry, thought you posted 1.23xx .... LOL obviosuly I don't agree with your view amte GT GL

HK leo 11:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
those trading silver could u pls. reccommend broker without slippage - TIA

Barcelona Tony 11:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 11:10 GMT .. agree 100%

HK [email protected] 11:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
These are trial days; In the short term almost everyone is right, because of the wide swing.
Thus if you do not get scared, you may exit with some profit and/or with your undershirt only.
I still tend to believe that Euro is heading into the 1.3xxx zone.
Where the serious dispute will be; "how far will prices go" .

Barcelona Tony 11:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 09:32 GMT ... so nice of you to share your knowledge, but could you as well share your profits? I mean, I don't know what the h..ll I'm doing trading having someone so good as you here ... if you want I'll give you my bank details for wiring profits :-) LOL ...

Chambery FR JFB 11:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 10:57 GMT February 20, 2004
EUR/USD >> need 1,2677 For ( + )
ema [ ( 34 Play ) >> 55 ]= ema (21) for pull....
za... reading your post makes me think I am not as smart as I would be :-( Can you explain in plain english what you mean (what timeframe?) plz? Thanks a lot :-)

Nottingham 11:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ld 11:01 GMT

that makes sense as former year high was 7813 so stops get tripped and then rebounds...not sure that we'll see those levels but if we do then high probability of rebound to 7850...gl gt

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am still waiting to fill the 1.6010 eur/aud and 1.5980 order

Dublin Flip 11:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I didn't realise OBL and mullah were releasing a schedule of their travels. that should make things easier then .....

GVI Jay 11:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

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ld 11:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Stops Tipped At 0.7825

LAX-LGB SNP 10:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Taliban warns of attacks; says Bin Laden, Mullah Omar in Afghanistan (afxnews.com)

Stockholm za 10:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD >> need 1,2677 For ( + )
ema [ ( 34 Play ) >> 55 ]= ema (21) for pull....
Happy trades .....

Nottingham 10:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
also due today is Canadian CPI...market will be looking for clues on rates (next meeting March 2)

Oakland Daimyo 10:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thx Tallinn viies--- you are one of the best trend followers in this forum. I was looking for you 2 days ago.

london p 10:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
US Jan CPI at 1330gmt being the main release. Events include US trade chief Zoellick at a news conference at 0930gmt, Fed's Poole on the economy at 1345gmt, ECB officials (Liebscher, Tumple-Gugerell) at 1500gmt, Fed Bernanke at 1745gmt and Fed Chairman Greenspan on education at 1845gmt.

Moscow Hawk 10:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Market met my first target 108.00-50 in USD/JPY. There is still room for upside. But I find this zone reasonable to take profits at least partial. If later today we see levels 109-110 in the pair it would be good idea to close the remaining possie.

Good luck

Gen dk 10:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn Mvs 10:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Leeds Jim 10:39 GMT
hi mate - welcome aboard - what data u referring to - CPI hardly gonna be a mover tdy - main US data was all out yesterday...

Leeds Jim 10:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am new here and find the discussion very interesting :), Cant say we will see the Eur strengthen by the end of the US session, however if it slumps wont be much lower than 1.2600. Bear in mind that the Data out of US wont be that great

Ldn Mvs 10:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 10:31 GMT
Cheers mate - like u say may be Friday story, but judging by the move & near round figure, and having topped there earlier, figure worth a punt with tight stop anyway...little to lose!

Psychic Friends Network Ms. Cleo 10:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 10:06 GMT February 20, 2004
hey london dude...my predictionsare bases on research and lots of hours talking to the right people

Martin - It's ok you can tell them that I am the source for your predictions. By the way, I am reducing your rates to $1.99 per minute given you are such a good customer.

Moscow Hawk 10:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
What a nice person this Gold Coast martin. Too much noise. Too much talking about subject he does not even knows. But how much fun in his words. When he is talking about market it looks like he wants to get a little fame. When he is talking about Russia he looks like annoyed visitor from a small village lost in a big city whose luggage was stolen. He even does not have enough funds to allow a good IP. No doubts he tried to entertain us.

Nottingham 10:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Mvs 10:28 GMT

you may well be right but last friday we heard that china was to annouce fx road map on monday...yeah well, friday rumours and all that...id guess someones short and needs cheap usd to cover...just imo gl gt

Tallinn viies 10:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I think we have seen the low for today and for the week.
buying on dip down is suggested.
planning to buy cheap euros at 1,2615/20 if seen or else will start buying on monday...
good luck guys

Wellington am 10:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Mvs

Appreciate your sentiments re bull/bear talk in all caps. Have been using this forum for about 3 weeks now. Good level of chat, advice and humour. Keep it up guys. I'm short USDYEN and riding the current highs out. Can't see any fundamental reasons for such a strong rise. Hanging in for 106.50 or there abouts.

Ldn Mvs 10:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
A team from the US Treasury Dept. is to visit Beijing next week to commence economic dialogues. The US embassy in Beijing said it will be the first in a series of trips & will include talks on China's Fx system, among other things

(just hrd from broker)

USD/JPY may react on this...? Worth a sell with tight stop I think above low 108's

LAX-LGB SNP 10:26 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nk
i am having doubts re: USD rise too
if new lows are not plumbed within 90 mins i'll be flat or try and reverse

saloniko 2004 nk..1.3+++ 10:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

While i read expert Gold views my opinion is that while experts having DIP pockets they dont care for a wrong of some 500-800 pips wrong...

That means still may will see Euro above 1.30 B4 the final down move

Euro need to Keep strongly that is not a weak currency ...where anytime Big Brothers can play with it...

Friendly

GL ..GT and take care all..;)

Ldn Mvs 10:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
pt taken, but sorry I was looking for more of a 'constructive' comment - no hard feelings !

Gold Coast martin 10:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hey london dude...my predictionsare bases on research and lots of hours talking to the right people.I just want to share my thoughts with everyone one without revealing my trading systems and sources...G/L G/T

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
note eur/gbp still hasn't penetrated the impt .67

Ldn Mvs 10:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 09:56 GMT
Hey dude - why u getting so excited?? - you may be right, you may be wrong - wud hate to see how u wud react if ur 'prediction' did not happen - my advice to you wud be to avoid posting such comments as the newcomers may fall into a nasty trap - I thought this forum was about ideas/tech levels/fundamentals etc. but your 'analysis' seems not to have a solid base! Sorry, but monopolising with CAPITAL letters ain't so clever!

Makati Obelix 10:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Martin of Gold Coast, small caps pls.

Miami OMIL 09:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
. Gold Coast martin 09:53 GMT February 20, 2004
It is a great learning tool and you can’t beat the price either (FREE).(/;->

My ears are ringing from all this shouting ( take the caps off).

Nottingham 09:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
cad is gaining on all crosses...usdcad will need to make low between here and 1.3260 otherwise gets bearish and will test 10 day sma for second day running...gl gt

Gold Coast martin 09:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
YEN IS GOING NORTH WHILE EURO IS HEADING SOUTH...IN FACT EURO SHOULD ALMOST GET TO THE SOUTH POLE BY THE END OF THE NY SESSION...HANG ON AND ENJOY THE RIDE.

Ldn Mvs 09:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Watch eur/cad getting a beating!

Gold Coast martin 09:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I CANT BELIEVE ANYBODY WOULD WANT TO USE SOMEONE WHO SUPPLIES INFORMATION OUT OF RUSSIA.I WAS IN RUSSIA RECENTLY AND ALL INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDERS BROKE DOWN CONSISTENTLY...IT IS A WAY OF LIFE OVER THERE FOR THINGS NOT TO FUNCTION PROPERLY....

Miami OMIL 09:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Here is a nice little comment they sent to calm people down.

Dear Customers!

We are currently suffering problems with internet connection of
our Metatrader server with the rest of the world because of the
failure of our internet service provider.

Thank you for your patience and understanding

LAX-LGB SNP 09:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
selling eurjpy below 136.65 ... gbpjpy below 203.54 ... gbpusd below 1.8870 ... eurusd below 1.2670 ... buying usdchf above 1.2451

Miami OMIL 09:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Like I said is off and on today but I am using another charting package so I don’t have to rely on them at all just use them to compare. (/;->

ICT ML 09:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
TJ....think its so buddy....been bailing on up ticks myself ....Friday and all.....I prefer to be the hunter, not the hunted......need to rebalance for NY session

Oakland Daimyo 09:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 09:29 GMT February 20, 2004
Exactly the way I look at it. Ref:

Oakland Daimyo 16:18 GMT February 18, 2004
nyc jk-- I enjoy raiding the camp of weak handed specs, so for me watching the activity in those accts, especially those who are consistently wrong gives me an indication of buy/sell pressure. Many of these guys have a gambler mentality and they come back/ get burned again and again. Good consistent profits for us. If 90% fail, that means 10% collect the money from the majority. Contrary opinion at it's best.

GA TJ 09:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML

Curious as to your thoughts on Her Majesty's currency. Just dragged my ugly butt out of bed and wow. Looks like our gravy train might have run out of track. If 1.8800 gets hammered, look out below. It will break the right shoulder of the HS on the 60 Min chart. Stopped on GBPJPY for 306 PIPs

Say it ain't so!!!!!!!!!

LAX-LGB SNP 09:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
OMIL ping -t them till they connect ;-) starting working just now

Gold Coast martin 09:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
HE! HE!..GREAT INVESTMENT MOVE..AT LEAST YOU WILL GET A RETURN FROM "DEAD" ASSETTS.

Ldn 09:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:05 GMT February 20, 2004
Spr NoodyG Euro to take a nosedive later today

Gold Coast Martin , I know the feeling

Miami OMIL 09:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
SNP they are experiencing technical difficulties at the moment (off and on thing). (/;->

HKG SK 09:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Gold coast
If you are so confident that we will see 1.2560Euro tonight I will remortgage my house, sell my car and sell my wife and short the Euro. Which i just did. LOL

LAX-LGB SNP 09:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
anyone having connection issues with metaquotes/metatrader ?

Ldn 09:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
RBoS says implications if cable makes a sustained break of 1.8840 are bigger than a standard intra-day breakout. Such a move would target 1.8790, 1.8750 and eventually 1.8650. Now at 1.8847

Gold Coast martin 09:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD FALLING BACK TO 12540 RANGE 2 HOURS INTO THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE AMERICAN MARKET....DONT ASK HOW I KNOW...I JUST DO....!

NYC JC 09:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
need confirmation,

WIll Fed Greenspan speak today?

Nottingham 09:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
re retail positions, I am speaking to somebody at large broker...personally don't see size of position as relevant in this case, looking only at the sentiment side of things ie. general public/non-profs tend to be on wrong side of trade, so a useful contrarian indicator I feel

Miami OMIL 09:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 09:17 GMT February 20, 2004
Definitely that is the way I look at it. It is like a hunter waiting for a good shot on the prey or in my case the pressing of the left button on my mouse LOL. (/;->

Ldn 09:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
CNBC europe talking people being squeezed short dlr/yen and will be force out if it get above 110 also sayinng will see 1.80 in GBP before 2 seen
talking 800pts pullback .

Tallinn viies 09:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
good day all

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 09:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc, in your opinion, do you think your big fire could be as large as 1000 pips?

Nottingham 09:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
gbpjpy 1st o/b 203.94 2nd 204.57

Atlanta 09:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dollar's fall puts big crimp in European tourism
ROME — As the euro continues to strengthen against the battered U.S. dollar, tourists, businesses and Americans living abroad complain that Europe is pricing itself out of the market
http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2004-02-19-euro_x.htm

SA getFX 09:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP > I'm not sure of the source/s. Judging from Nottingham's comment, my indicator may only be retail flow (maybe with limited input at that). Can one get an indicator covering all forex? I doubt it..

Oakland Daimyo 09:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.2646 Fractal is the "hinge" for this door. Which way will it swing? Only time will tell. Saving ammo for now. Waiting patiently--Will stalk this mkt for hours/days if necessary. 24 hr mkt requires focus and patience.

Miami OMIL 09:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I know it is a bit early to discount the bulls but if the bears continue to dominate then the retracement from November’s move is roughly 1.2335-40, 1.2155-60 and 1.1970-75. There is a bigger retracement from September and these are the rough estimate numbers as they have changed from last time I posted them (1.2095-1.2100, 1.1840-50 and 1.1590-1.1600) IMHO. (/;-> GL GT to everyone the turbulent times are here, as I feared. Let the games begin.

Chambery FR JFB 09:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 08:29 GMT February 20, 2004
Hat, if you don't mind me asking... why is your stop @1.8950plz? I would say it'd be just above previous support now res @1.8865/70 or above descending t/l @1.8970... TIA :-)

Dallas GEP 09:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GETFX, does that take into consideration the SIZE of the sellers and buyers because 1 CB Seller and 1 SPEC are working with different volumes????

Gold Coast martin 09:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AS PREVOUSLY STATED AUD/USD BACK TO .7850 WITH A FURTHER FALL BACK TO .7785....MY INDICATORS ARE SHOWING....WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK?

hong kong nt 09:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY -- possible to have one more go to 204.5...

B.A. BOCA 09:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
good morning all....the strength of the dollar is definitely surprising. held on to gains for more than a day! this could very well mark a m/t turning point, yet there is still no fundamental case for buying $. 'scared of the ECB' doesn't work for me. so far little more than a stop-running exercise, below 12590 would make it more believable....although I have no idea why anyone would want to buy dollars. more like covering their dollar shorts. time for some hedging--- GL and trade with care!

beijing road 09:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : thanks, sir. I got it.

Ldn 09:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Signs emerging that Australian economic data are cooling off, which could be bearish signal for AUD. Westpac strategists say bank's so-called surprise indices, which monitor amount of data showing surprise strength, have weakened. Only 30% of data now surprising compared with 90% in concluding weeks of last year. Australian indices have turned sharply lower vs Japan. Results overall argue against adding AUD longs. reuters

Miami OMIL 09:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Road I have 1.2590-95, 1.2570-75 and 1.2490-95 as next support but as I stated before the TL was pierced but not broken yet IMHO. (/;->

SA getFX 09:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Tx Nottingham.

SA getFX 09:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP > still watching the "Stew"!

hong kong nt 09:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP -- may climb back to 1.8940/50 before heading south...

Nottingham 09:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
SA getFX 08:56 GMT

That's about the kind of information I've been getting for the retail side...fwiw has moved from about 3:1 earlier this week

beijing road 08:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : if mkt gets 1.2510, i would book profit there coz thats famacia's turning point.

Dallas GEP 08:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
So GetFX, at what level are you long euro at???? LOL

SA getFX 08:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
The Interest indicator I'm watching shoews Euro buyers:sellers at about 2:1

beijing road 08:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : Yeah, agree with you. Will try to sell eur at 1.2650-1.2700 level with 1.2510 as first target ,then 1.2300-50 level. If the low 1.2564 of last week is taken out, eur will get quite bearish for me. GL

Ldn 08:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
For the euro, the turning point appears to have come with French President Jacques Chirac's warning earlier this week that Europe is bearing too much of the burden of adjustment in the dollar. McMahon said that this proved to be a vindication of the European Central Bank's previous concerns about the strength of the euro and suggested that political tolerance of a further rise in the currency was falling fast.
rts

Eilat Dolphin 08:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Tony/ Me Macd Cow of mine ain't doin' well at all. She turned into a French froggie and just keeps fukin' divin' like if we were in the Marianne Trench.

Is there a Maginot Line Indicator somewhere ? Or at least an Atlantic Wall ?

Dallas GEP 08:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
SAM, don't know exactly but that's what trade desk said.

ICT ML 08:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP.....I'm telling ya, we see .6625-30 today if all goes to plan..that is.....LOL

LDN SAM 08:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS GEP : What sort of sixe do U think on EUR/GBP?

Dallas GEP 08:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LARGE eur/gbp SELL order went thru and that's what cause POUND to go long a minute ago.

Oakland Daimyo 08:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GENEVA FHR 08:40 GMT February 20, 2004

Wien GD 08:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Look at the shortterm retracements for example jpy against gbp - there is no $ bull out there - only BOJ/ECB

Dallas GEP 08:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
YEah CABLE is jerking up EURO. SHould be short lived though.

Helsinki iw 08:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
IMHO Cable trading back above breakdown point 1,8860.
Could see short squeeze on EUR/USD too.

GENEVA FHR 08:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Big asian buyers ard 1.26 -20 area

Vilnius george 08:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:36 GMT
i would say not a weak dollar, but a strong chinese currency . lol

Oakland Daimyo 08:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Not talking you out of trade only sending a warning. OBV has bottomed for now and Demand Index is turning up (still in sell zone though) I watch a longer time frame than you (4hr candles)

SA getFX 08:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
If in fact we're in pump & dump mode, note that Euro & Cable have both basically hit S4 - normal limit on big trading day. Maybe enough USD short stops are out - time for pump? Lets see...

Dallas GEP 08:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, I think USD/JPY will be contained JUST below 108.00. Euro should at least get 1.2610 but it will be a FIGHT

Ldn 08:36 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bk Of Korea: Weak Dollar Could Hurt Asia's Econ Recovery

Oakland Daimyo 08:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP today is not the day to "force" mkt. I suspect quite a few sell- stop orders were triggered on the widely talked about 1.2650--1.2640 break. This leaves these traders in a vulnerable situation if downside progress does not pick up soon. Short squeeze may be the name of the game for the next few hours at least. TA 101: Major mkt moves tend to retrace 50% contrary to the popular 61.8% argument. 61.8% tends to be overshoot.

Dallas GEP 08:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
First target on that EURO short is 1.2615

prauge viktor 08:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ja Gep I remember how do usee it now once mor short euro and long usd/yen thx

NYC JC 08:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hi,

why USD getting so strong now? Anybody know why?

Thanks.

Ldn Hat 08:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP/USD at 1.8850 target 1.8780 stop 1.8950 IMHO Thanks,

Dallas GEP 08:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Italian GDP must have been good Small EURO spurt up

Barcelona Tony 08:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 08:25 GMT ..watch your macd cow at the end of the day ...

Eilat Dolphin 08:25 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Tony/ Unlesss ""MACD now"" turn out to be MAD Cow...

hong kong nt 08:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc -- you're guilty of aggravated arson, need a lawyer? haha...many good trades to you

Dallas GEP 08:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Short again on Euro @ 1.2640

ML that is just BS!!!! I have seen FEED get frozen!!!

ICT ML 08:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP, the little censored wouldn't give me my positions....kept moving price on me...

Barcelona Tony 08:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
as I have the MACD now ... euro today could target 2450 or less ... same for aud

london bulldog 08:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am buying sterlings & euro

phils VL 08:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
will miss the fun but regret to tear myself away fro next few hours..

GL all

Dallas GEP 08:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ML, take deep breaths, it's only a game with REAL money

Oakland Daimyo 08:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: 1.2638 is the 50% Fibo retrace of 1.2348 to 1.2928 upmove. Also, nearest fractal of importance is 1.2646, so if mkt can hold these levels look for quick move up. May not be substantial so be ready to short. GL & GT

Dallas GEP 08:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, remember what I aid about if Euro shorted hard then usd/jpy would see 108.00 which we saw 107.97. I don't think we will see 108.20 today IMO

phils VL 08:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo gud afternoon.. eur/usd

agree that waters are shark infested... market may be stabilizing somewhat... I'm basically bear but wud still like to trade both ways.. my long trades still about one-third of shorts...

GL GT

Wien GD 08:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
$bull ??? - 3 x hahaha ... manipulation bull yes ... they've lost the game ... now everybody knows the $ can't exist without intervention

Chambery FR JFB 08:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.. gbp currently off Monday low (1.8812), matter of time be4 it's broken as well imvho :-)

Miami OMIL 08:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
No problems Road you will get it back. I think we might have to change sides soon to the bears. The bull’s are losing ground fast and even with the TL pierced eur/usd has not closed under it hanging on by a fingernail IMHO. (/;->

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 08:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
and now, I like my two options on nzd v. much.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 08:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc, very much appreciated!
I was away for 2 hrs and....

london 08:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hello all. just to reaffrim my view about the CAD that i've been banging on about for the last couple of days. a break of 134.40 will see a MASSIVE CORRECTION. quite possibly into the 141 area. gts

Melbourne Qindex 08:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : The following is still valid.

Melbourne Qindex 23:17 GMT February 18, 2004
USD/JPY : The odds are against any short position for the next two days. See details in my page later.


Melbourne Qindex 23:06 GMT February 18, 2004
USD/JPY : The distribution profile of my 22-day cycle probability chart indicates that the market is heading towards the extreme level of 108.22 - 109.25.

Oakland Daimyo 08:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
w/ our

Ldn 08:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Schroder Investment Management strategist Simon Doyle still believes hedging a material proportion of funds' international equity exposure is appropriate but adds it's becoming harder to justify having major hedging with AUD/USD hovering under 0.80; in other words, AUD/USD could go higher but big gains appear to have passed.

BC think this is what you are seeing also .. good trades and many thanks yet again

Oakland Daimyo 08:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Guys this looks suspect. I think we are being watched. I think there's still a few people upset w/ out successful raid earlier this week. They may be trying to catch us both ways. I think it's time for positions and would be careful w/ quick strikes. I am seller but would prefer some uptick to sell into.

Barcelona Tony 08:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
the train has already left ... anyone long against the $ bull train? will be hard to deal with ... enjoy the $ bull cycle that has begun

shanghai bc 08:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good afternoon..This is what usually happens to carry-traders..They almost always misjudge the market liquidity and some good-sized ones with better info hit their pressure point and all rush to the firedoor..But this may be just the beginning of a mini-fire with a big-fire to come later..Fwiw..

beijing road 08:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL: I did not trail stop after eur rebound to 1.2760 level. SO just took loss of 30pips per lot(total 90pip).

ICT ML 08:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP...I am being molested by these bastards right now....I swear to god I'm going to break something!

Kaunas DP 08:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
todays close below 1.26 to me will indicate 1.23 test next week - have good w/e all

Dallas GEP 08:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Look for 1.2610 for a possible bottom. DON"T bottom pick unless you have TIGHT stops

prauge viktor 08:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
gep do u think that we are going to see the 1,257 today and the 108,2.thx

SA getFX 08:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Euro & Cable on S3 (06:15 GMT).

Dallas GEP 08:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I am square on Euro trades now. Euro will go LOWER

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 08:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
whoooos......


bc, is it the start of the ship turning? or actually has the ship departed?

Oakland Daimyo 08:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
1.2640 is absolutely vital. I might not be able to wait. Selling pressure still greater than buying pressure.

Dallas GEP 08:02 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LOW so far 1.2629

Miami OMIL 08:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Road I hope you had your stop in place I don’t know if this next support will hold. (/;-> GL GT

Oakland Daimyo 08:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP and Phils VL I will wait on you. Still selling upticks. I thought we would see more bounce off 1.2713. Let me know when you guys are ready. What's your tgt for the upside? I will start selling again after you bank pips.

phils VL 08:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd - stopped out at 43. new small long at 38 s/l below 1.2599

Dallas GEP 07:59 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I meant LONG Dammittt, OUT ON LONG

Dallas GEP 07:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
OUT on Short 20 pip stop eaten LOL!!!!

Miami OMIL 07:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Stops were triggered on eur/usd but it has momentum we will see the strength of the momentum IMHO. (/;->

beijing road 07:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
finally I am wrong, but not reverse to short side yet.

ZP Nemo 07:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP Don't stress all the market!! )

Kaunas DP 07:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 07:54 GMT
still holding ?

Dallas GEP 07:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Longed Euro @ 1.2664

ICT ML 07:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP, your "Stealin station" hanging up?

shanghai bc 07:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

LDN 07:41 -- Good afternoon..It may go as low as .77 level today and to .75-.76 region later for some breathing space....Tokyo session high may be today's high for all non-Dollar crowd including Aud/usd..Some fund folks started selling as soon as Tokyo liquidity was at its peak in the open..Maybe they would do the same as soon as London liquidity pick up and same for NY session..Good trades..

Chambery FR JFB 07:51 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
g'morning all :-) fwiw, my feeling is that if gbp can break that 1.8865/70 level, then 1.8840 will be a formality and we may see 1.8730 by tonight. Any comment? TIA Happy trades...

MONACO OGA 07:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 20/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2690), almost same level as yesterday. The pair was in a consolidation mode yesterday, trapped inbetween 1,2650 support and 1,2730 resistance. Some better than expected US job data could not influence the market. Closing in NY was around 1,2700. Overnight the pair tried the upsides (high 1,2768) before retracing lower ahead of Europe opening. Level to watch again today is 1,2620-40. A break of this support could trigger new selling wave to 1,2350. We will favour range trading with purchases around 1,2640 for a target of 1,2750.
Our medium target remains at 1,3500 for the time beeing.

Data out today:

CAN CPI M/M Jan expected 0,2% 12.00 GMT
US CPI M/M Jan expected 0,3% 12.00 GMT

Gold around 409,00 , with WTI March at 35,78.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 107,65) is the main mover. the japanese currency weakened 2 big figures against the USD in the last 3 trading sessions, biggest move since early January. Players who sold in front of BOJ buying have been seen unwinding short USD/JPY positions. 108,40 appears the nearest resistance level. Short term support ahead of 106,50. Our stop at 107,50 triggered, we have now turned neutral on the pair, however we like to stick to fundamentals and still believe the japanese authorities cannot keep the pair from falling below 100 in the medium term.
EUR/JPY (currently 136,60) heading towards 137,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8890) consolidated above 1,8860 yesterday but as expected found resistance ahead of 1,90.
EURGBP (0,6715) briefly touched 0,6700. This is a level where we'll turn bullish again for a rebound to 0,6860 target.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Eilat Dolphin 07:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
France GDP + 0.5% as foreseen.

Eilat Dolphin 07:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc/wow! ;^)

FX acrophobia 07:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
abnormal dread of being at a great height

shanghai bc 07:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

DOLPHIN -- Yes..

Ldn 07:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc Hi , any level you see possible on aud today with funds also exiting their longs thanks again

Kaunas DP 07:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Malaga boqueron 07:34 GMT
agree 100%
and next week looks rather bullish for usd - imo

Miami OMIL 07:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW 07:33 GMT February 20, 2004
I agree that is where I have a TL also thanks for the info. (/;->

GEP you got big ones buddy I could not play it the way you do man. You need nerves of steel (and the rest also of steel) LOL. (/;->

shanghai bc 07:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX -- Good afternoon..Short-term specs were all cleaned out on Wed..Medium-term long specs may have to defend Eur/usd 1.23 hard this time..Once that line is gone, Eur/usd may finally retreat to 1.15-1.20 region before the longs have time to re-mobilize their troops..Thanks for your forecasts..

Eilat Dolphin 07:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
bc/ Hi! Is acro(phobia) for hight ?

Malaga boqueron 07:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
RE EUUS, Today being Friday, I would be very surprised if all those stops accumulating below 1,2645 don't get taken out. Real question is how much follow through to the downside do we get afterwards.

Dallas GEP 07:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Closed Eur/USD short @ 1.2677 which for me closes out position from hellll I took the other day, AVG. traded was 1.2708 so +31 on this one.

Bris TW 07:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 07:30 GMT
Yes although S3 1.2636 will be a better support level to place a stop and to decide to go long around that level.

Manama MT 07:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Malaga boqueron
Thanks a lot... I will do that and I have also a Euro put option strike 1.2500 .. . If the mentioned level broken. it will be bad for Euro Thanks for all

Miami OMIL 07:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Bris TW it will be interesting to see how the bulls handle this move as we approach the previous low (1.2650) a lot of stops around that area IMHO. (/;->

Melbourne Qindex 07:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:22 GMT - Good afternoon. Well, we are going to have a fun day in London and New York sessions.

Bris TW 07:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD is currently heading towards my S2 at 1.2659

shanghai bc 07:22 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

Some good-sized carry-traders exiting via Asian day-high today..Wed's raids on Euro with such easy success may have given them acrophobia..Fwiw..

phils VL 07:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd

added to longs at 86, s/l now moved to below 1.2645

phils VL 07:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd

Swiss 'SS' in action ....

Bris TW 07:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LOL so much jargon when it can be explained so much simpler.
AUD/USD Pivot point is R1 .7933. Support level 1 is located .7870 (current price .7878)
Suggestion: Short now with stop at .7935 for target .7830.
Or wait and sell on rally towards .7933. Liquidity is currently not enough to drive through my S1 level of .7870

Melbourne Qindex 07:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 07:10 GMT - You are welcome.

LAX-LGB SNP 07:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
dr. Q - hope all's well
thanks for the AUDUSD tip

Melbourne Qindex 07:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:07 GMT February 20, 2004
AUD/USD : My 22-day reference indicates that a projected barrier has been established at 0.7881 - 0.7895.

NYC Cubao 07:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Basicallyashortfor youraussie?

Melbourne Qindex 06:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:56 GMT February 20, 2004
AUD/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure as it is trading below the critical level at 0.7940 - 0.7988. It is likely that position traders are accumulating their short positions on rallies when the market is pulling towards 0.7940. The current expected trading range is 0.7845 - 0.7892 - 0.7940. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 0.7845 and the lower barrier at 0.7750 // 0.7797 is likely to be challenged.

Melbourne Qindex 06:27 GMT February 20, 2004
AUD/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 0.7929. The upper barrier is positioning at 0.7979 // 0.8004 and the lower barrier is expected at 0.7805 // 0.7830.


... 0.7730 ... 0.7805 // 0.7830 - 0.7854 - 0.7879 - 0.7904 - (0.7929) - 0.7954 - 0.7979 // 0.8004 ...


Melbourne Qindex 10:59 GMT February 15, 2004
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 0.7940. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 0.7750 // 0.7797 and the mid-point reference is 0.7774. The upper barrier is located at 0.8083 // 0.8131 and the mid-point reference is 0.8107. The market rhythm is represented by 48 pips (k=0.004763) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.7750 - 0.8131. (Suggestion : maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7940)


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 0.7702, 0.7750 // 0.7797, 0.7845, 0.7892, 0.7940, 0.7988, 0.8035, 0.8083 // 0.8131...


Malaga boqueron 06:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Manama MT, RE EUUS, your unexpected long EUUS. Forget whether you think the market looks bearish or not. Place your S/L below 1,2645 - as phils VL suggests. I'm assuming you can absorb a loss without too much damage if stopped out below that level.

Bris TW 06:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD

R4 1.9080
R3 1.9025
R2 1.9009
R1 1.8998

1.8920

S1 1.8913
S2 1.8868
S3 1.8843
S4 1.8791

Melbourne Qindex 06:57 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:56 GMT February 20, 2004
AUD/USD : As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market is under pressure as it is trading below the critical level at 0.7940 - 0.7988. It is likely that position traders are accumulating their short positions on rallies when the market is pulling towards 0.7940. The current expected trading range is 0.7845 - 0.7892 - 0.7940. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below 0.7845 and the lower barrier at 0.7750 // 0.7797 is likely to be challenged.

Melbourne Qindex 06:27 GMT February 20, 2004
AUD/USD : The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 0.7929. The upper barrier is positioning at 0.7979 // 0.8004 and the lower barrier is expected at 0.7805 // 0.7830.


... 0.7730 ... 0.7805 // 0.7830 - 0.7854 - 0.7879 - 0.7904 - (0.7929) - 0.7954 - 0.7979 // 0.8004 ...


Melbourne Qindex 10:59 GMT February 15, 2004
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 0.7940. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is expected at 0.7750 // 0.7797 and the mid-point reference is 0.7774. The upper barrier is located at 0.8083 // 0.8131 and the mid-point reference is 0.8107. The market rhythm is represented by 48 pips (k=0.004763) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 0.7750 - 0.8131. (Suggestion : maintain a short position if the market is trading below 0.7940)


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 0.7702, 0.7750 // 0.7797, 0.7845, 0.7892, 0.7940, 0.7988, 0.8035, 0.8083 // 0.8131...


Bris TW 06:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD

R4 1.3440
R3 1.3410
R2 1.3348
R1 1.3329

1.3313

S1 1.3270
S2 1.3246
S3 1.3224
S4 1.3195

Bris TW 06:54 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD dont pay for information :)

R4 .8004
R3 .7965
R2 .7953
R1 .7933

.7880

S1 .7880
S2 .7870
S3 .7830
S4 .7813

Bris TW 06:52 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD current free comment

R4 1.2850
R3 1.2823
R2 1.2792
R1 1.2767

1.2702

S1 1.2692
S2 1.2659
S3 1.2636
S4 1.2597

LAX-LGB SNP 06:48 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
appears i'm late ... conti-majors are far from shorting highs but supported by their minor cousins ... question in my mind is who pulls who and which way ?

Melbourne Qindex 06:35 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

phils VL 06:32 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd

now at 1.2704. Wl add to longs ard 1.2680 if seen and move s/l to below 1.2645...

Melbourne Qindex 06:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Miami OMIL 06:24 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone I see support for eur/usd at 1.2695-90 (100ma on 4hr chart), 1.2590-95 and TL sitting at 1.2625-30. My retracement numbers I mentioned before still stand next in line is 1.2575-80 IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

phils VL 06:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
profit taking on eur/yen by shortterm specs keeping eur/usd down for this round...?

SA getFX 06:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Todays calculated pivots:
ur/usd gbp/usd
1.2846 1.9112 R5
1.2792 1.9046 R4
1.2773 1.9020 R3
1.2754 1.8994 R2
1.2727 1.8961 R1
1.2700 1.8928 P
1.2681 1.8902 S1
1.2662 1.8876 S2
1.2635 1.8843 S3
1.2608 1.8810 S4
1.2570 1.8758 S5

Manama MT 06:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys, today I got surprise that I have left orders in the market to buy at 1.2736. It has been executed and market looks bearish now..Any suggestions. TIA

Melbourne Qindex 06:11 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

ICT ML 06:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
sorry, didn't mean close as in "close the door"....but as in "we're getting close to home".....

Swakopmund Liz 06:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 05:47 GMT February 20, 2004
Close at what time scale?
GT

Ldn 06:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP aussie could be taking the lift in the not too distant future

ICT ML 05:47 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
watch gbp/jpy close....it is either going to bounce here off 203.25 or fall a ways back towards 202.58 I think....

Ldn 05:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
statements like this wont help the aud sentiment today in NY.

Morgan Stanley's analyst C. Ted Wright says current levels close to 0.80 no longer attractive for longer-term investors; U.S. firm estimates AUD/USD as much as 25% overvalued, so near-term rise should be used to exit long-term AUD/USD longs.

ICT ML 05:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ab....I plan on .6630's by close myself........so I hope we do :->

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 05:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Can I remove the handle .66 tonight?..Hm..

Ldn 05:39 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP also funds bailing out of short Dlr/Yen hurting Euro

Ldn 05:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP I agree with you ,see today a Dollar Rally across the board but a little later in the day feel tradres taking the easiest route first .

Ldn 05:34 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Australian private new capital expenditure expected to rise 2.2% in 4Q from 3Q, down from gain of 4.1% in 3Q from 2Q, according to consensus forecast of 22 economists surveyed - market alert for any deterioration in capex expectations in data

Dallas GEP 05:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
There was that bounce off FIG 1.2700 which was to be expected. Bounce seems shallow however IMO.

Dallas GEP 05:29 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN, stochs have just turned DOWN on Eur/USD. I think it IS possible we will have another attack on LOW in LATE Asia or Early London. I am not too sure I would want to hold any EUR longs over the weekend either with what the ECB and Asians have done just recently. So it is possible that squaring out effect will have a shorting result on Eur/USD. This will be a heated battle tho in my mind as we have seen the last couple of days at these levels.

hk ab 0.66 05:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nt, after a safe capture of 200, I think gbp/jpy only has north move but not south anymore.

Ldn 05:18 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP gut feeling only but could see 126 on Euro today or lower and then up . aussie 78

phils VL 05:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD' direction

Notwithstanding my contention it is overstretched and has 'peaked' indicated technically by stox and macd, its back to basics for mw...

Intermediate/Midterm
For confirmation of downtrend its not 1.26+, or 1.25+ or 1.24+. The daily cycle low is 1.2335, period! Only on a daily close below 1.2335 with a new cyle low can a new downtrend be broadcast. If it retraces up beyond the current 1.2926 high and a daily close abv current 1.2646 low, can a continuing uptrend be claimed. If beyond previous high on intraday but closes below previous cycle low (eg Wednesday new high but lower low), it will signal range expansion and if pattern continues will further signal an imminent reversal of the dominant direction. For dailies I conclude eur/usd is in the volatile range expansion phase.

Intraday/Short term
It printed a new cycle low, lower than previous low y/day(1.2646 v 1.2715). If the retracement up does not break current high, reverses and prints a second cycle low lower than 1.2646, I would then confidently trade heavier from the short side on intraday basis. It wud be a start of a new intraday down trend. Note the intraday downtrend has to go beyond the daily cycle low of 1.2335 to trigger a longer term down move.

Trading the swings have been profitable on interday repeat interday basis. Just let the heavy comml specs do the work to push it up and enjoy the ride on the waves down. Avoid shorts when the 1, 2 and 4 hrly oscillators tend to converge at the low and prepare to ride the waves up.

I'm long at 1.2704 frm a stop buy and 1.2739 at market, s/l below 1.2680. If seen will TP (take profit) first at 1.2780 then 1.2855. Intend to apply heavier shorts at the top later if 1.2860 rejected.

GT GL

Dallas GEP 05:16 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN No I am not in Aussie right now because it moves too dammm slow for me!!!! LOL

I think Eur will go below fig now but unsure as to how far yet.

HKG SK 05:15 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn
I have the same feeling as you do. I guess we might see off loading Euro long fairly soon. Usd strenghten across the broad is very likely. Euro 1.2580 or even lower.

Ldn 05:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP are you short Aud, was looking to do so if we get back to the figure

Ldn 05:12 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP are you short Aud, was looking to do so if we get back to the figure

Dallas GEP 05:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
If EUr/USd goes below 1.2708, that would be rather bearish signal (session low)

hong kong nt 05:09 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy 04:46 GMT -- guess dlr/yen bulls may encounter attack after some 300 pips up from 105 line...

Ldn 05:07 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

If the big funds lighten their loads on some of the carry trades we could see the USD strengthen today across the board...


Finance Minister Cullen put a cat amongst the pigeon's
today with his comments regarding the potential for intervention in the NZD. In an interview with Dow Jones, Cullen said that the RBNZ is concerned about the
relatively low level of its forex reserves, and said they were looking at 'options for intervention' as a way of building up reserves. The market was quick to hit the sell button in the Kiwi, and after topping out at 0.7040 earlier in the session, we are currently trading at lows for the week at 0.6972.
The NZD has also lost ground against the AUD, with AUD/NZD popping above the recent 1.1300 range tops. Traders are mixed on the longer term impact of these comments as Cullen
also said that intervention only has a 'limited effect in topping off the extremes' in a currency's cycle. However coming on the back of recent tepid N.Z. economic data, and with the USD continuing to recover across the board, the risk
has to be for further pullbacks in the Kiwi

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:06 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd, nice buy signal to get 1.9004 again.
buy !!

Dallas GEP 05:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
I was talking about the Euro penetrated down thru the 1.2730 area was was acting as support.

nyc hotrod 05:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 04:23 GMT
are you a wifelover by any chance.J/K
GL/GT

Dallas GEP 05:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, I think usd/yen may top out around 107.60/70 UNLESS Euro breaks down hard then 108.00 could print.

mtl gg 05:03 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
GEP is that was euro you were talking about then I have last at 1.27191 which would be the penetration??? Where to from here??

prauge viktor 05:01 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hello Gep how do u see the usd/yen at this level plz.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:00 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:49 GMT February 19, 2004
gbp/usd when at 1.8980 have given message will be finished at 1.9004. Now is on the support.
be carefull !

I have done that and get nice profit, maybe like you. :-)

Dallas GEP 04:55 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
While holding thus far on 1.2730, I beive we will see penetration of that level soov

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
hey..friends.
have a nice gbp/usd have done at 1.9003.
now be careful with 1.8946, maybe move up from there.

Kamensk Andy 04:46 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong nt - can you advise short-term upside target for USDJPY?
TIA, and good trades.

GA TJ 04:45 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Euro is putting up an admorable fight to hold that 1.2730 Line. I hope it does because my stop is at 1.2725. The GBPJPY pair must be related to the Energizer Bunny. It just keeps going and going and going and going. Have moved my stops up to 203.00. Looking at doing something with the Loonie if this little over the last hour holds.

GA TJ 04:38 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
It has been so long that I have looked at the YEN Daily chart that I forgot what it looked like.

Well my stuff is getting ready to flash a buy signal on the daily. Probably Monday if it keeps going up. Strange.

hong kong nt 04:33 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ab -- if you like to sell eur/jpy, 138 maybe a good entry level for you...

Dallas GEP 04:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
NEVER mind. LDN. Stoch has bottomed out but MACD has just turned over downwards,

Dallas GEP 04:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN, that NZD is absolutely bottomed out on MACD and STOCHs. What could be used to confirm continuation on the shorts????

hong kong nt 04:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ab -- my wife guess gbp/jpy may test 205.5 today...

hk ab 0.66 04:14 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Q: why nzd plunge with yen???

Ldn 04:10 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Post-Cullen selloff in NZD/USD has daily MACD in process of sending very strong sell signal on pair, which portends further losses as hedge funds (many of which have been long NZD) follow similar momentum based models. Similar sell signal mid-January preceded a 0.0500 fall, meaning watch indicator closely. Underlying support 0.6872 (Jan. 13 high

Chicago YM 04:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
zzzzzzzzz....

Melbourne DC 03:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ge11Ja n BC
Thanks for the insight re large flows .. will be off now .. good trades everyone. DC

shanghai bc 02:56 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

DC 02:04 --Good morning..As I understand it,BOJ has been acting like a traffic warden in recent years towards the repatriation season..They collect all the possible good-sized repatrition plans by large firms like NTT or Toyota or Sony, and advise them in such a way that they do not create a traffic jam or Yen avelanche..And BOJ carry out appropreate actions in Yen market everyday to make sure Yen market behaves within their expectations..I must say they have been very successful so far even with some 100 billion dollars spent so far..They are getting smarter by the day..Fwiw..

Melbourne DC 02:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN
understood re CB of high yield putting some brake (except BoE?) ... just finds that RBNZ always makes more noise than RBA ... but then i am not the most astute of observer .
all the best .. DC.

Gen dk 02:44 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Ldn 02:43 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne DC it looks as if he is using it as an excuse to buy Dlrs without getting into a fight with the fx markets

Melbourne DC 02:40 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
LDN
Cullen does not seem to be as savvy as Macfarlane .. 'intervention' is for Big CBs .. for small CB its 'reserve buildng'.

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
feds mcteer says not concerned by usd fall against euro.. pretty lame response by market actually

Ldn 02:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand wants to build up its reserves, and its reported to me along those lines," said Cullen. "Its levels of reserves haven't changed since 1990, and I'm getting a final report back in three to four weeks time, and at the same time the bank and Treasury are finalizing advice on options for intervention in foreign exchange
AP.

melbourne farmacia 02:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
My first gbp/usd long picked up overnight just above my fibo bouncing tool as mentioned last night, will hold for 1.9010. Only selling under 1.8880 this friday. gt

Ldn 02:31 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen Friday gave his clearest indication that the central bank might soon intervene in currency markets for the first time in almost 20 years.

The government is concerned that strength in the local unit, which is up almost 70% against the U.S. dollar over the past two years, will damp exports and the overall economy.

Negy for NZD and for Aud

Melbourne DC 02:30 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja
Yes it is very helpful, esp the last para .. for small leveraraged speculators like myself .. we can get 4-5 pips on usdjpy .. i presume NTT would get even better deal with BoJ ( 1pip) ?
Thanks again ... David.

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:28 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
NZD taking a dip on the back of a comment from fin min that NBNZ is concerned with the level of their reserves

Sydney Ge11Ja 02:27 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne DC

Firstly it depends on what they do with the proceeds ie NNT might have USD Debt it wants to retire which means no fx move or Ripplewood might want to reinvest the yen in other Japanese projects.

If they do want to convert there is nothing stopping them dealing with each other, easy if they have the same bank of course.

If NTT has a Japanese bank as its house bank you might find they will go direct to the BOJ rather than try and disturb the market, thats is a fair sized parcel

Hope that helps

Global-View 02:23 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   

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Melbourne Qindex 02:19 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

shanghai ht 02:13 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
beijing Rd. : Thanks!

Dallas GEP 02:08 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Well While I was away, I had a 1.2750 sell order on Euro activate (I didn't think it would until maybe London). This in effect averages out my DA short so that now I have 1.2708 average traded. I thought that 1.2740 might have held at least in Asia but I see I was wrong which is par for the course TODAY!!! LOL

Melbourne DC 02:04 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC or any banker on the forum,
Talk of NTT Docomo selling of ATnT stake (6-7billion usd?) vs Talk of Ripplewood consortium repatriation of Shinsei float profit (est 680 yen) .. (not sure either is confirm)
IS it fair to say that equally large flows in opposite direction create large volatility rather than offset each other in a flat price?
Do they have to individually conduct their transaction on the forex market , or can they make arrangement to transfer money into each other local account n save the forex transaction?
Thank you for your time .. much appreciated. DC

beijing road 01:58 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk: thanks. Actually, if 1.28 level is seen, i will lock in pips. Anyway, flexible view is very important for us to survive. If 1.2640 is seen tonight, i will take long usd position for short time play.

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beijing road 01:53 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
ht: good morning! I see USD/chf would consolidate btw 1.22-1.24 level for couples of days b4 any real action. It is just a feeling. GL

nyc jk 01:49 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
beijing road - not sure about 1.29 tom, but very nice buying of EUR on the dip , good call on your part.

ML - have you bought GBP yet and/or still looking to buy if we go through 1.9000?

SHANGHAI ht 01:42 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Rd: what is opinion on position: buy usd/chf at 1.2350?

beijing road 01:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Expect EUR to confirm its uptrend to close above 1.29! We will see bloody Friday again!

Melbourne Qindex 01:21 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

LA saint3 01:20 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
get ready .. for yen to reach 108.50 ...

hk ab 0.66 01:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
nothing is better than the support from BOJ.

Swiss DG 00:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Hi all of you,
Anyone think that eur/usd might visit again 1.270 area later on or tomorrow, or long are now taking over definitely.
Dan

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:41 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Ldn

Thats the way it felt to me as well, bit of stop hunting etc. With Usd/Yen looking rather bid then will have knock-on effect later.. aud/yen feels offered towards 85.00

GLGT

Ldn 00:37 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja
typical action in thin market , some fund trying to spook the market higher hoping specs will jump in , but he got it wrong
they are probably trying to clear out their stale long positions at everyone else's expense

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:17 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 00:05 GMT February 20, 2004

you thinking funds buying to sell into london?

Ldn 00:05 GMT February 20, 2004 Reply   
Spr NoodyG Euro to take a nosedive later today

 




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Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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