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Forex Forum Archive for 02/21/2004

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shanghai bc 23:49 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   

RC 18:09 -- Good morning..I believe that Dollar's rising fortune against all others started its mega-reversal on 15/8/1971 when Nixon removed Golden Standard and since then,it has been all down hill skiing with some bounces in the middle..And in a big picture for the next decades,Dollar may have much more downside beyond our imagination at the present moment..Of course,the above view cannot be used by most in the market for trading purpose for obvious reasons..

The present round of Dollar slide since 2001 has ben the result of Usd assets bubble burst..Recent stimulus to speed up the slide was provided by "Weak-Dollar-Policy" from big-spenders,Bush team..In all probability,we have not seen the floor of this Dollar slide since 2001 before its is reversed and medium-term bounce starts..

The present Dollar mini-bounce is just a distribution excercise by some large traders when the market's liquidity is plenty with high fever..We had good distributions on the way up to Eur/Usd 1.00 and 1.10 and 1.20 all taking some 4-12 weeks covering some 500-1500 pips in each case..Market,forex or otherwise,is all about liquidity and distribution and accumulation dances are as natural as Sun rise and Sun set..We were heading for 1.30 in mid-Jan and we started much needed distribution excercise starting there and we are still in the middle of that excercise which may take another 4-8 weeks covering some 1000 pips from 1.29 line..All these strange explanations on Dollar bounce is nothing but amateurs' reading of the market with no access to the true workings of the market..Imho..

Melbourne Qindex 23:32 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that the supporting strength of 1.2335 - 1.2352 will be challenged on Monday.

Melbourne Qindex 23:01 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Athens 22:09 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
The triple importance of EUR/$ 1.2330 on Monday:
(1) The major low of the current consolidation
(2) The 38.2% correction of the upleg 1.1370-1.2925
(3) The point where the major support line comes in drawn off 1.0760 through 1.1370

Melbourne Qindex 21:53 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 12:36 GMT - I usually do it when the market opens in Asia session. I will make an educated guess on the market rhythm and run the EUR/USD daily cycle later today.

georgia gc 20:43 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Jay,
I misread the time 14 GMT to 14 ET. It is my fault.

GVI Jay 19:30 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Ronny, we have been advertising the class for 3 weeks and it was held live today. You can access a replay of the class by contacting me and sending a request for an alternate date (it was presented in a text format with accompanying charts). Cost is $50. We got great feedback on it.

Munich Ronny 19:12 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Hi Spot, Jay,

how can one participate in the online class ?

Ron

georgia gc 19:03 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Jay,

I am waiting fot the online class

HK RC 18:09 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
RE: shanghai bc 07:15 GMT February 21, 2004

May I ask how does your eur view reconcile with the US 'weak' dollar policy. Thanks.

Spotforex NY 17:45 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Jay - The online class was informative today. I hoped that the members took advantage of it.

spot

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 13:33 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:15 GMT February 21, 2004

Thanks very much for the insight!

UK RE 12:53 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Raden: A million thanks for your kindness but at this time I am unable to trade. Therefore please delete my details from your analysis E mail list. Richard.

Barcelona JP 12:36 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex

You haven't posted daily cycle. Have you?

Melbourne Qindex 11:52 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 11:42 GMT - Don't go against the market next week.

Melbourne Qindex 11:51 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 11:42 GMT - Whenever I feel the market is going to be very volatile I will use 22-day/44-day and 3-month projection as reference. Otherwise I will just run the daily and weekly cycle.

Melbourne Qindex 11:46 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 11:41 GMT - In a strong trending market we have to rely on the normal trading range of 3-month projection profile. In a range market we can depend on the weekly and monthly cycle normal trading range.

Melbourne Qindex 11:42 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 11:39 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

Nottingham Daniel 11:42 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex

I am a day trader (not everyday) - I have a trail via Jay - but I guess this last week I found it difficult to understand your information - today I was able to spend more time going through the information and I consider I understand more - if it is a two week trail then this coming week will put your data to the test with regards to myself getting to grips with it! - Tks

Barcelona JP 11:41 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Qindex

Do you know anything about Reversal Magic?

Barcelona JP 11:39 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
You are good Qindex. That's why I applied for a trial.

Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 11:26 GMT - Thank you.

Barcelona JP 11:26 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex

I applied for a two weeks trial.

Melbourne Qindex 11:19 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 11:06 - Basically if you are a day trader, concentrate your trade (entry/exit) at the upper or lower barrier of my daily cycle. If you are a position trader, concentrate on the lower/upper barrier of my weekly cycle. If you are a fund manager, concentrate on our monthly/3-month projection, 22-day and 44-day cycle charts. See details at QIA System

Nottingham Daniel 11:06 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex

Tks - I understand the very basics, but found your web site a little difficult to understand ! do you have a information doc that explains how to use the information -

Barcelona JP 11:01 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
The answer is to have followed others rules ignoring mine.

Barcelona JP 10:58 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
The answer is GREED. excessive desire to acquire or possess more (esp material wealth) than one needs or deserves

Barcelona JP 10:52 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel

Thank you.
I'm not any star trader. I'm only a newbie. I think we always are newbies in that risky business.
For instance, you say that you've had a nice week.
OK. I've had a regular one. I've finished up with a 30 pips lost.
Why? That's the question. Now I must do my homework.

Melbourne Qindex 10:44 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 10:35 GMT - Basically we are trying to locate the projected chart points as accurate as possible for a defined time frame.

Nottingham Daniel 10:35 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 10:26 GMT February 21

I must say I find your posting very helpful - I have just started trading Forex (Since Jan 04) and find this FF very good place to learn - I did very well this last week thanks to Star traders like you and GEP and others - so please keep them coming!
I am interested in Qindex but I am having a problem getting to understand the system - and would very much like to know more - !

Barcelona JP 10:26 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Elliot is another tool to try to forecast the price movements. It is not an oracle.
So, draw your trendlines, support and resistence as well as other technics that you may have.

Barcelona JP 10:22 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Good morning!!!

If you look at eur/usd hourly, you'll see a clear three waves down. The bottom of wave three is 1,2494 (bid).
The three waves are impulsive, so could not be a correction (A-B-C), but a five.
So if that were the case, go long now. S/L 1,2494. Target: 1,2598-1,2630. Eur/usd can not trade now over 1,2659-1,2664. If it does so, we could see it over 1,3000.
If my wave counts are correct, we should see 1,2340 at least.
Anyway, we have a nice range to deal with:
1,2664-1,2494 bid. A break of one of them will tell us the future: to 1,3000 or to 1,2340 at least.

It could be that 1,2494 were only the end of wave 3 of 3. If that were the case, it can not trade over 1,2630.

GBP/USD has the same wave count that eur/usd.

SG Jay 09:38 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
anyone has forecast for euro/dlr and gbp/dlr as well as aud/dlr ? thanks

to cj 09:11 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
where it says 'censored below' im am refering to g........c.........I..... trading

to cj 09:09 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Can someone please answer a couple of questions please...Can censored be trusted with clients funds?(have you ever had any problems)Are there any differences from trading the demo version to the real thing? Any information would be greatly appriciated.

toledo chap 08:35 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
what was the main factor playing a turnaround on global for US$

seen around the russians are wanting the satellite war dish too, while iran elections and nuc weapons, could lead to another evil cleansing, also israel bought more F16 fm lochkeed boing...smells to win elections some more tragedy to cook out needed for white trash lobbies

shanghai bc 07:15 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   

AB 03:16 -- I am betting Eur/usd 1.23 line will fall this time and the next meaningful support comes in around 1.17-1.19 region..In any case,rising 250 dma is likely to support Eur/usd again and Eur/usd starts another northbound march from around there..Expecting this round of distribution and accumulation process to take some 4-8 weeks while other non-dollar units dance to the tune of Eur/usd only with different magnitude..But,once Eur/usd falls through 250 dma line around 1.17 line,I guess Jan.high was the high of Eur/usd for may months,if not years, to come..Imho..

Melbourne Qindex 06:24 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab 0.66 04:52 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
nt//nope

ny mn 04:43 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
anyone has forecast for yen/chf or chf/yen ? thanks

hong kong nt 04:42 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:30 GMT -- do you mean 7400? thx

hong kong nt 04:17 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
ab -- due to possible unwinding of yen crosses at some stage next week, we derive a weekly range of 108-111...

hong kong nt 03:58 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
ab -- did you receive my new e-mail address?

hk ab 0.66 03:13 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
bc// do you expect the usd m/t retracement could be finished within 4-8 weeks?
and then another new round of m/t rally sets in?

hk ab 0.66 03:13 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
nt, it's always not $ problem but time problem :)

a special brand coffee then :P

do you think dlr/jpy gap can be filled?

melbourne farmacia 02:30 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Most players have been holding Aud/Usd from low 0.6400's, so another 300 odd pips should be expected on the down side.
Have a good weekend.

Melbourne Qindex 02:07 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hong kong nt 02:01 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
ab -- we guess USD has already finished some 40% of the necessary rebound in coming weeks...

how's your trade this week? enough to buy me sandwich and coffee for lunch next week?



Melbourne Qindex 01:09 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:31 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The mid-point reference of 1.8522 - 1.8600 is 1.8561.

Sing LOY 00:27 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Any idea the low in the AUD/NZD cross in Ldn and NY trade
TIA

Melbourne Qindex 00:22 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market is trading below my monthly quantised level at 1.8522.

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT February 11, 2004
GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 1.8522* - 1.8679* - 1.8835* - 1.8991* // ...


After Expansion


... // 1.8522* -1.8600 - 1.8679* - 1.8757 - 1.8835* - 1.8913 - 1.8991* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:10 GMT February 21, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

 




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