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Forex Forum Archive for 02/22/2004

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mtl gg 23:42 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Thankyou to everyone who answered my question.. Its a very steep learning curve at times and you all help so much!!

Atlanta MM 23:34 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
May not be obvious from seemingly strong January CPI but U.S. is long way from sort of inflation that'll get Fed ready to raise rates: CPI +0.5% but, taking out food and energy, components known for volatility, gain a more modest 0.2%; also, trend in core inflation still softening, leaving economists holding onto bets Fed won't act for while, perhaps 2005

Reuters.

Global-View 23:28 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   

ANNOUNCEMENT:

The "Learn To Design Your Own Trading Systems" was very well received and anyone who wants to sign up for the class using an alternate date should send us an email

ICT ML 23:10 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
right now, the two trades I see with most chance of success for tonight into London, are eur.gbp short form .6720 maybe and usd/cad long from 1.3350...depending on they react to the hourly RSI trend supports about to be tested....

Melbourne Qindex 23:08 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 23:06 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 23:08 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
this week all moves depends on whether eur/gbp rebounds or not.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 23:07 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
trail eur short from 1.28 @ 1.2525, waiting to reshort later.

Miami OMIL 23:06 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:54 GMT February 22, 2004
Thank you for taking the time to explain to the new people in the market what the dollar index is all about. This is what makes you especial in the forum IMHO. (/;-> GT

Ldn 23:00 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD Retracement back to 0.7730 today due to oversold before any futher decline.
CSFB strategists 25 bps hike still likely in March especially with lower dollar.

ICT ML 22:56 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Something I'm watching close for on cable now, since 1.4050 bottom, it has been trading up through a series of parrallel channels. It broke through a chanel top at 1.8500 area going up, and if it stays true to form, it will retest that breakout as support before going up again if market is so inclined.

Friday, it stopped dead on that weekly channel breakout point, so what happens from here, gives me my road map for the other pairs in the near future.

GL and trade smart

Melbourne Qindex 22:54 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
The U.S. Dollar Index is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. The six currenices and their trade weights are:

Currency : Currency Weight %

Euro 57.6

Japan/yen 13.6

United Kingdom/pound 11.9

Canada/dollar 9.1

Sweden/krona 4.2

Switzerland/franc 3.6

Atlanta MM 22:53 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Many thanks having difficulty GV seems to be sticking from my end , but thanks everyone have saved

Melbourne Qindex 22:52 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Belgium sidekick 22:46 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
@mtl gg
if you want a more indepth explanation of the $index goto
http://www.akmos.com/main/forex/usdx.html

SD tht 22:45 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Try this one for USDX

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=w

Belgium sidekick 22:42 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[w,a]dacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

Atlanta MM 22:40 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have the site , it was posted some time ago but I have since lost the site .... US index
thanks

Khobar 22:37 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hello
How may can get DPO?
Thank you

mtl gg 22:31 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
I have to ask a "newbie type question" What is the US index referred to and where do I see it?? TIA

Miami OMIL 22:29 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, JMI. I am always curious into these systems although you can make profit with many systems the trick to using them is consistency and capital management IMHO. (/;->

Chicago JMI 22:24 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
DPO= Detrended Price Oscillator

Miami OMIL 22:23 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Sorry dop=dpo

Miami OMIL 22:23 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the reply JP what indicator is the dop? tia

Barcelona JP 22:21 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Well, time to go to sleep in Barcelona.

Good luck to all.

Barcelona JP 22:20 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
No. But I think, as far as i tested them, that they could give some profit. Do the test by yourself and you will see.

Miami OMIL 22:14 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 21:27 GMT February 22, 2004
If you donít mind me asking are you using those parameters to initiate your buy and sell order? tia

Barcelona JP 22:13 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Nothing, I just came across that system and I think is interesting.

Miami OMIL 22:08 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hello, hope everyone had a good weekend. On the eur/usd front we have a sell of the top scenario right now but we must get past the last support of 1.2495-90 before any real gains can be accomplished for the bears. Right now with the intraday indicators in oversold area I am looking for a bounce to short eur/usd. Will be adding at 1.2600 and 1.2650, which are the retracement I posted Friday. If this does not happen then there is another plan that I posted Friday. These plans are not for anyone to follow I always advice to follow your own plan and if you donít have a plan then donít get into the market. The plans that are posted in the forum I believe are there for you to compare and evaluate your situation IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Melb mpfx 22:03 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
fwiw some fib #

Eur/Usd
Previous weekly Close ~ 1.2514

Previous weekly High ~ 1.2926
Fib Retrace 25% ~ 1.2818
Fib Retrace 33.3% ~ 1.2781
Fib Retrace 38.2% ~ 1.2760
Fib / Pivot 50% ~ 1.2709
Fib Retrace 61.8% ~ 1.2658
Fib Retrace 66.6% ~ 1.2637
Fib Retrace 75% ~ 1.2601
Previous weekly Low ~ 1.2492

Memphis Charles 22:01 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
You gonna play it, Dallas?

Dallas GEP 22:00 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
JP, what do you want me to do with that????

Dallas GEP 21:59 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm... little eur/usd push up before my platform opens. INTERESTING!!!

Melbourne Qindex 21:42 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Melbourne Qindex 21:31 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Barcelona JP 21:27 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
GEP

As I think you never go to sleep, could you try this? :

MACD in direction on daily, followed by 10/30ema cross, RSI (9) above 50 and DPO (14) above 0 on 30 min chart for longs and MACD in direction on Daily, followed by 10/30ema cross, RSI (9) below 50 and DPO (14) below 0 on 30 min chart for short


Melbourne Qindex 21:19 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Barcelona JP 21:02 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 10:39 GMT February 22, 2004
Hi to all!!!

We have a very easy proxy to see if we are going to have a hard way down.
Look at USD index. Friday closed at 87,40.
Well, if it trades and close over 88,07, we'll have a very big and hard fall in all the pair against $.
So, take care.

Barcelona JP 21:00 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 12:52 GMT February 22, 2004
Asia might take EUR/USD lower first thing Monday to clean out stops between 1.2475 and 1.2490. The major support is 1,2350. If 1,2350 holds, we coulg go in a retracement to 1,2700.
As I said, the biggest risk in that business is that USD index cracks 88.07. If that happens, the EUR, GBP and AUD get killed.


Barcelona JP 20:57 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Like to post what I said yesterday:

Barcelona JP 10:22 GMT February 21, 2004
Good morning!!!

If you look at eur/usd hourly, you'll see a clear three waves down. The bottom of wave three is 1,2494 (bid).
The three waves are impulsive, so could not be a correction (A-B-C), but a five.
So if that were the case, go long now. S/L 1,2494. Target: 1,2598-1,2630. Eur/usd can not trade now over 1,2659-1,2664. If it does so, we could see it over 1,3000.
If my wave counts are correct, we should see 1,2340 at least.
Anyway, we have a nice range to deal with:
1,2664-1,2494 bid. A break of one of them will tell us the future: to 1,3000 or to 1,2340 at least.

It could be that 1,2494 were only the end of wave 3 of 3. If that were the case, it can not trade over 1,2630.

GBP/USD has the same wave count that eur/usd.


Aden PK 20:56 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas GEP, I fully support your view on Euro/Dollar, I too believe it is sell on rallies now for some major correction on downside. I myself is looking to sell near 1.2590-1.26 and will add if seen near 1.2650Currently I am long in Dlr/Cad from 1.3374 and will add once it close above 1.3425 on daily basis. I like to have your comment on USD/Cad position,

I must say I have high regards for your post on the forum as well as for Barcelona JP you both followed market very neatly.

I may not able to post further as it is here almost 09 GMT however will try to communicate in European session. Wish all of you GL and Good trades. Good night.

lugano rob roy 20:55 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
it will be interesting to know if Zorro is waiting 1.2222, as he posts last 16th of January, to go long or he changed his idea

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:54 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
rumors were that he was trading hungarian currency against the usd on the tick charts.

but no record of even i trade made so it's just hot air baloon.

Chicago JMI 20:51 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Rafe,
I think most of his money was made trading USD/HKD. He would wait until a fairly tight range and just go all in and scalp. Way to risky IMO.

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:47 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.. there was a guy some weeks back that claimed to have made 45000% in 2 weeks using censored and while entering one of their contests they disqualified him in the end for what reason is still unclear. He had a site up with claims he built a system/method of trading he named KABIR, there was also some difference of opinion with this guy and moneytec forums moderators and they ended up banning him from the site as well.

I check this guys site out a few minutes back and it's closed.

500% per month I can believe provided there is some proof of the returns by looking at the records but claims of 45000% without even a record of 1 trade is complete hot air, if there is no trading proof to prove it.

Melbourne Qindex 20:43 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 12:19 GMT - You are welcome.

Dallas GEP 20:33 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
My comment Friday was that I thought the dollar bears would push back (unsustainable) over the weekend and they HAVE HOWEVER, when my platform opens in two hours and it is starting to appear that the opening prices on Eur/USD will be LOWER than close on Friday. And that my friends is VERY Euro bearish sign.

Seems we have a SELL on Rallies situation instead of the typical buy on dips that we have seen most recently. Money CAN be made both ways but my guess at this time is we probably have AT MOST a 150 PIP upside on Eur/USD if that and maybe a 400-500 PIP downside and I am talking about in the next 2-3 weeks.

ny 20:27 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
thanks tony - they did recently change their hours to opening earlier..

Barcelona Tony 20:24 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
ny 20:23 GMT .. don't use them but other firms do the same .. it's called "weekend spread" .. it's wider because of lack of liquidity ... when market opens and normal liquidity is back you'll see normal spreads again, gt gl mate

ny 20:23 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
does anyone here deal on FX Solutions platform -
their spreads have increased to 10 wide in everything??!

Barcelona Tony 20:11 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
test

Barcelona JP 18:49 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY

Agree with you

Spotforex NY 18:32 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
as IGROK noted in his post last week - the Dollar yen pair could finally fill its gap from the SEPT G-7.....(that is 113.55)....

108.10/30 is support in Dollar yen.....

Spotforex NY 18:31 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 18:24

G-7 stated that they did not want excessive volatilty in the forex mkts....we have experienced a few days where vols have climbed in the post G-7 environment - especially in Yen recently....


I would suspect that the euro stays in a 1.2350 to 1.2650 range for now...but a break below 1.2350 should spark a possible move back towards the early Nov '03 levels in the Euro (sub 1.19)....

Spotforex NY 18:25 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Good thing spot's obit didn't start off as...

" a key advisor to President Bush passed away on Saturday...."

Barcelona JP 18:24 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY

Ready to see eur/usd at 1.2350?

Spotforex NY 18:22 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
but I did have my 'dog' days of trading.....but things look like they are going thru the 'roof roof'.....

Spotforex NY 18:21 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Despite the rumors - I am well....thank you!!!

perrie como 18:18 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
sf mike funny indeed this is a very pop president

spot is dead while spot forex is too!? but no one noticed:)
all is fake and undigestable that i suggest you look
for some more reliable news (and presidents:)

this one f.ex http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html
ps
too much fake media around is well worth a nuke world wide confilict at the end, i guess



Chicago Irish 18:16 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Spot is dead....long live the forward markets!

sf mike 18:03 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
That's it for the dollar.

Sat Feb 21 15:55:00 2004 EST
WASHINGTON, Feb 21, 2004 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --
The following is a statement by the
White House Press Secretary:
The President and Mrs. Bush and the entire Bush family are deeply saddened
by the passing of Spot. A loyal and loving companion, Spot was a beloved
member of the Bush family for nearly 15 years. She will be missed.
SOURCE White House Press Office
White House Press Office, +1-202-456-2580
http://www.whitehouse.gov


Moskow 18:00 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
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and precise technical analysis?
Visit www.hisbase.com . This is one of the trustworthiest & effective
forex quotes history for intraday trading over net.
Intraday data are presented since 1997.
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HK [email protected] 16:17 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
BIN LADEN 'CORNERED'

Thousands of Pakistani troops are reportedly preparing to launch a massive raid for al Qaeda suspects into the areas bordering Afghanistan.

News of the raid came as reports claimed that Osama bin Laden had been cornered in north-west Pakistan by British and US special forces.


The Sunday Express claims that the al Qaeda leader and up to 50 henchmen had been trapped in the a mountainous area near the Afghanistan border.

A US intelligence source told the paper: "He is boxed in."

A spokesman for the American Defence Department refused to comment but the newspaper said Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar is believed to be with bin Laden.

The paper's source claimed bin Laden moved into area one month ago, having previously been holed up in a region 150 miles to the south-west.

His latest suspected hiding place is believed to be under surveillance from a spy satellite while British and US special forces await orders to move in, said the paper.

The tribal leaders in the area were last week given a deadline to capture and hand over al Qaeda suspects as well as the local people accused of harbouring them, Pakistani military officials said.

"We have the option to go into action to do the job ourselves after the deadline," Pakistan military spokesman Major General Shaukat Sultan said.

The focus of the manhunt is South Waziristan where many fugitives suspected of involvement in attacks against the US-led coalition and Afghan forces across the border are believed to be hiding.

The US military last week said that an operation was being prepared on both sides of the border.

Va Raven 16:11 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Whoever made up that story doesn't have any sense of the real trading/investment - there is no way for anyone to build an account from $800 to $350MM within 2 weeks unless he did something like one of our Virginia folks yesterday.

HK [email protected] 16:09 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Origins: All
one need know about this article is that it originated with the Weekly World News, an entertainment tabloid devoted to inventing fantastically fictitious stories while keeping its tongue firmly embedded in its cheek to a depth not measurable by any instrument known to man. Unfortunately, Yahoo!, a primary news source for many people on the Internet, reprints some Weekly World News articles in their TV News section under a heading of "Entertainment News & Gossip," a title that doesn't convey a strong "bogus" warning to readers who don't notice the original source is the Weekly World News (or don't know what the Weekly World News is).

HK [email protected] 16:03 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
UFO-DIGEST hahahahaha that is rubbish.

Va Raven 16:01 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Agreed.
He should be able to "see" the FBI coming otherwise.....
Just to share with you guys something wild on the net.

Chicago JMI 15:57 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 15:43 GMT February 22, 2004
It's a hoax. Someone I know checked it out with the SEC and they knew nothing about that story.

Spotforex NY 15:49 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Raven - Didn't post a few months back that time travel did exisit with some three seconds being performed under some sort of secret Gov't experiement....talk that it will be some 30 seconds in the near future.....

swk liz 15:48 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 15:37 GMT February 22, 2004

Thanks Tony

Va Raven 15:45 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Suggest that whoever had a straight winning record last week here find a way to lose some money this week before too late.....

Va Raven 15:43 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
The FBI claims that with an initial investment of only $800, Carlssin built a personal fortune worth over $350 million in just two weeks!
Officials are quite confident the "time-traveler's" claims are bogus. Yet the SEC source admits, "No one can find any record of any Andrew Carlssin existing anywhere before December 2002."

Barcelona Tony 15:37 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
swk liz 15:26 GMT ... trades are done at the opening price ... stops don't work over w/e

phils VL 15:18 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
how about this on fx frm the genius...

I dont understand a thing about our usd foreign exchange, but our strong dollar policy very clearly speaks for itself...

Barcelona Tony 15:07 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
phils VL 14:15 GMT ... LMAO!!!! genius ...

Spotforex NY 14:59 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Thise quotes are quite humorous...Seems George W has a little bit of Yogi in him.....

Lancaster DH 14:28 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Japan's high terrorist alert just may provide enough momentum for the continued appreciation for usd. And with Greenspan speaking again this week things could get pretty interesting.

phils VL 14:15 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Comments to further cloud the issues...

BUSHSPEAK AND THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

"The vast majority of our imports come from outside the country."
- George W. Bush

"If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure."
- George W. Bush

"One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is 'to be prepared'."
- Governor George W. Bush

"I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future."
- Governor George W. Bush

"The future will be better tomorrow."
- Governor George W. Bush

"We're going to have the best educated American people in the world."
- Governor George W. Bush

"I stand by all the misstatements that I've made."
- Governor George W. Bush

"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."
- Governor George W. Bush


"Public speaking is very easy."
- Governor George W. Bush


"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls."
- Governor George W. Bush


"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."
- Governor George W. Bush

"For NASA, space is still a high priority."
- Governor George W. Bush

"It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
- Governor George W. Bush

"It's time for the human race to enter the solar system."
- Governor George W. Bush

Barcelona JP 12:52 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Asia might take EUR/USD lower first thing Monday to clean out stops between 1.2475 and 1.2490. The major support is 1,2350. If 1,2350 holds, we coulg go in a retracement to 1,2700.
As I said, the biggest risk in that business is that USD index cracks 88.07. If that happens, the EUR, GBP and AUD get killed.

phils VL 12:51 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd

useful comments frm Athens and Bc as usual, and we cannot expect anything less...thank you. The big point made by Athens is to trade as it comes meaning bothways as markets dictate, supposedly until the 'no-brainer' direction sign is seen. Bc's measure of liquidity dictates mid-term tops and bottoms and assumes the current down move will more likely persist until ard 1.18 where it will reverse and then continue its up move beyond 1.12926. Athens suggests that this cannot be taken for granted implying by then that fundamentals cud be in play and/or a further down move is possible if a USD up retracement is measured in a super macro scale....

For me its also trading the swings as they come bothways. My repeated contention that 1.2900 is 'peak' and overtretched especially in the second move up to 1.2900 again, has not failed me overall and proportionately more and heavier trades were made on the short side. Friday however was bruising when I traded the retracement frm the long side - 2 stop-outs, 1.2643 frm av 1.2702 and 1.2595 frm 1.2638! (the really gud trade on usd/cad mainly held me up for the week). Wl apply more restrain on long trades and increase even more on shorts.

Intraday clearly signals a bearish trend for eur/usd, although one cud expect some retracement up to the 1.2575 lvl before attempting to break 1.2450/70, then test 1.2335.
On daily basis as said, only a close below 1.2335 with a new cyclical low can one confirm a longer term down move. I prefer the latter event..it makes shorting all the more fun....

GL GT

Barcelona JP 12:45 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Forecast of one of the bigggest banks in the world :

Date 02/19/2004 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year
Instrument Current Forecast %Chge Forecast %Chge Forecast %Chge Forecast %Chge
EURUSD 1.2541 1.3000 3.66 1.32 5.25 1.32 5.25 1.4 11.63
USDJPY 109.01 105.0 -3.68 105.0 -3.68 105.0 -3.68 100.0 -8.27
EURJPY 136.71 136.5 -0.15 139.0 1.68 139.0 1.68 140.0 2.41
GBPUSD 1.8617 1.925 3.4 1.94 4.21 1.94 4.21 2.05 10.11

Maybe they change next week ir maybe not.

Barcelona JP 12:37 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Like to post what I said yesterday:

Barcelona JP 10:22 GMT February 21, 2004
Good morning!!!

If you look at eur/usd hourly, you'll see a clear three waves down. The bottom of wave three is 1,2494 (bid).
The three waves are impulsive, so could not be a correction (A-B-C), but a five.
So if that were the case, go long now. S/L 1,2494. Target: 1,2598-1,2630. Eur/usd can not trade now over 1,2659-1,2664. If it does so, we could see it over 1,3000.
If my wave counts are correct, we should see 1,2340 at least.
Anyway, we have a nice range to deal with:
1,2664-1,2494 bid. A break of one of them will tell us the future: to 1,3000 or to 1,2340 at least.

It could be that 1,2494 were only the end of wave 3 of 3. If that were the case, it can not trade over 1,2630.

GBP/USD has the same wave count that eur/usd.

Barcelona JP 12:32 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Hawk

You are right Hawk. But odds are today in favor of a decline.
I do not love any position, I just look at it and try to jump where the price is going.
But as you know, sharks know that the majority is dollar bullish. So.....

Moscow Hawk 12:24 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD closed on Friday in the middle of mid term range. I have pointed before that there is need to hurry to bank on trend reversal without a confirmation of such reversal. I still stand on that point despite the possibility of reversal is very high. I have to note that such probability has been very high from the beginning of year. But since then we have seen very volatile market with fast action in both directions.

I think that it is not necessary to be the first to announce the USD bull or bear market to win eventually. To follow the market and to be in a right moment on the move it is more important to me. It is like a running on long distance. You can lead almost all the distance. On the final lap when competitors step up you can not find enough power to follow them because you hurried up initially.

Dollar still needs to pass through tough 1.23-25 zone in EUR/USD to get the reversal confirmation. There is no need to be in hurry to open EUR shorts if have no position and to regret about lost 200 pips profit if such confirmation being received.

Athens, for sure your explanation is not done by an amateur. Rather the opposite. Good luck, friend.

Good luck all.

prauge viktor 12:19 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Qindex thanks a lot sir for ur help..

Barcelona JP 11:53 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hi, Quindex.

Go to that link:http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$USD,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

But you are right, the dolar continuation index closed at 87,40.
87,40.
Anyway, the level to look, in my opinion monday, is (elliot) 88,07. If it can go up that level and close over it, we should square all long positions in pairs like eur/usd; gbp/usd, aud/usd, and so on.
By the way, could one of you tell me where I can have real time dolar continuation index for free?

Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
USD Index : The market closed at 87.40

USD Index : The pattern of my monthly frequency chart suggests that the market has a tendency to trade between 84.81 - 86.87. It is likely that the market has reached the monthly cycle low at 84.77 on February 18. The market rhythm of the monthly cycle is represented by 1.03. If the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 88.92, USD Index has a potential to tackle 90.98 within the remaining period of this month.

Melbourne Qindex 11:24 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 08:52 GMT - I have a feeling that the correction is going to be very rough within the remaing period of this month.

hk ab 11:09 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
nt// I think in the mean time, I wiill use option on those aud and nzd animals.

holding the nzd 1 month option at .70 and .7050.

perrie como 10:51 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
the only way for the dollar to rise is FED FUNDs back at 4 pct

Barcelona JP 10:39 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!!!

We have a very easy proxy to see if we are going to have a hard way down.
Look at USD index. Friday closed at 87,19.
Well, if it trades and close over 88,07, we'll have a very big and hard fall in all the pair against $.
So, take care.

perrie como 10:33 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
seen couple of pearls down there(athens and shangai), but do guess those readings in relation to the new born euro market (new stuffs are difficult to read over med/long term and so is the european currency with 25 financial different governements) guess europe is a basket indexed fund and could easily finish as most funds have (badly as when returns lower the multi distributions administrative costs are killing)

to me the japanese yen will make new unprecedented lows in the next 2 years) 50 to 70

we will see
anyway compliments

now back to my gardening :)

have a nice sunday world

HK RC 09:41 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
RE: shanghai bc 23:49 GMT

Thanks for the insight and GT to you.

prauge viktor 08:52 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Qindex: sir do u think its going to be a very fast corection,or it will slowely and for a long period of time,and u think sir that the satution in Iraq well do something to stop this correction.thank u sir and I m so greatfull for ur advice in usd/yen trend.

Melbourne Qindex 08:33 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 08:28 GMT - It is only the beginning of the correction.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 08:28 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT February 22, 2004

Q,What's your feeling on eurusd for this week? I mean does that correction finally start or do we have such wild fluctuations as has been seen in the past few weeks?

TIA:-)

Paris turtle 07:43 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   

I found great trend charts, using Heikin-ashi technique at this site: www.educofin.com. The people wrote an article in the February issue of Technical Analysis for Stocks and Commodities about this UNIQUE charting technique. It helps me to see the REAL TREND and to make money.
Have a TRENDy day.

Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : I have a feeling that there will be a panic selling if we don't see enough buying interest at 1.1836. Basically if there is a strong downward movement of EUR/USD it is likely to consolidate around 1.1575 - 1.1863.

... // 1.1575* - 1.1671 - 1.1767 - 1.1863 - 1.1959* // ...

london richard 05:02 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
thans sir

Melbourne Qindex 05:01 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
london richard 04:50 GMT - Luck is very importance in this Fx business.

Melbourne Qindex 04:59 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
london richard 04:50 GMT - Most of the time I don't give specific advice on trades. As long as you have place your stop loss order it should be okay.

london richard 04:50 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
sir i am long in cable and gold from 1.8610 and 398
is it good trade for next week?

Melbourne Qindex 04:50 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
london richard 03:59 GMT - Spot Gold : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 386.7 - 404.9 and the mid-point reference is 395.8.

Melbourne Qindex 04:46 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
london richard 04:37 - Details of my system can be seen in my website (add dot com to qindex). If you like to see my forecast for next week, send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he will arrange you to see as my page as soon as possible (usually less than 24 hours).

london richard 04:37 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
thanks sir
you are really helpfull
i want to see ur page
how can i?

Melbourne Qindex 04:33 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
london richard 03:59 GMT - Spot Gold : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 386.7 - 404.9 and the mid-point reference is 385.9.

hong kong nt 04:32 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
ab -- if you like to see sell some aussie, kiwi this week, .7777 and .6888 maybe good entry level...

Melbourne Qindex 04:31 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
london richard 03:59 GMT - EUR/GBP : The lower barrier of my monthly cycle is positioning at 0.6650 // 0.6713. The market is now retreating from 0.6713 and it is likely that it will settle around 0.6775 later this week. Therefore it is unlikely that GBP/USD would move in a different direction as compare with EUR/USD and USD/CHF. However there is no way I can eliminate the possibility that GBP/USD can rebound.

kansas city gjs 04:00 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
New to forum tonight. Newish to FX trading. Been getting an education in FX since July,03 and trading real mini account since Sept, 03. I am down a few hundred dollars, but getting far more consistant with trades being profitable. I have a question about an account with censored. I read the message at the bottom of the application page about no clients from the US. I'm not sure why this is the case, but I'm sure there is someone who could educate me. I have traded the S&P mini before, and also gold and oil. A mini account on the same platform as the FX certainly does have the power of appeal.Any info appreciated. Thanx.

london richard 03:59 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
sir i am new to forum
i have a question.we have almost 400 pips move in cable on friday as we see it some week ago.last time it bounce back from low in two days time.
dont you think it again will bounce back?
and sir one more question
how you see gold in next week?
hope you will reply

Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 03:06 GMT - I have a feeling that would be the case.

nyc sa 03:06 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
also , if the dollar trend reverses as seen friday , does it go up against all currencies in rotation ? do they all follow same direction ?Euro , chf , yen and pound ?

nyc sa 03:01 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
thnx Qindex for ur reply .

Melbourne Qindex 02:44 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:37 GMT - I have no idea about rate hike. It is because I am only interested in the symmetric analysis on the market movement. GBP/USD : I would not underestimate the movement on last Friday.

Melbourne Qindex 02:40 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is reasonable to believe that a lot of fund managers would like to take their profit and square part of their long positions on EUR/USD when the market is trading below 1.2727. Apparently the road towards 1.3495 was blocked at 1.2930 for the time being. The mid-point reference of 1.1959 - 1.3495 is 1.2727.

nyc sa 02:38 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
the k didn't print sory meant think and broken

nyc sa 02:37 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
thnx Quindex , do u see a rate hike on the dollar in march ?also do thin the uptrend is broen on the pound ?

Melbourne Qindex 02:30 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:21 GMT - EUR/USD : Basically the market is pulling towards that point. It is an important quantised level in my system and it is acting like a super magnet.

Melbourne Qindex 02:27 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 02:21 GMT - It is too early to say at this moment. We have to see how it goes this week.

nyc sa 02:21 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Hi Qindex u sound like a euro bear is 1.1960 in the cards soon ?

Melbourne Qindex 02:09 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Once the market is trading below 1.1960, the chance of seeing 1.3495 in the next 2 months is low.

Melbourne Qindex 02:00 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

nyc sa 01:44 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
Athens , u are also saying :" One shouldn't take a reverse move very lightly and without second thoughts " , did u mean the euro could be in the process of reversing its uptrend before seeing 135 ? and that the dollar could be seriously starting an uptrend vs all majors ? I am really wondering if the euro trend of late is just a bounce to accomodate uncle Sam until the trade deficit problem finds a solution , and if the dollar pulled back was meant to prepare for a large bounce going towards US elections date? So, actually , these could indeed be just bounces for targeted upcoming events ,in which case both currencies will be in a range until it breaks in either direction up or down .. who knows ! time will tell . Sorry for the length of my posts ,just thinking aloud .

nyc sa 01:22 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
hello Athens ,always looking forward to reading u , please stay around as much as u can or pop in more often . I just read ur last post ,very interesting indeed . To which pair u are referring when u say : "I wouldn't speak of some major intermediary moves as merely some bounces " . Are u referring to the euro vs the dollar which appreciated a lot since november ( A BOUNCE ? or is it a new true uptrend ?) or rather ,is it the dollar you are referring to as it reversed its downtrend on friday ? or is it the sterling ? If u were to draw a parallel between currency pairs , which pair substitutes the $/ DEM in the currency basket? is it cable or euro /dollar ? also could u explain why cable went up almost in a straight line ? and why the gap down of all currencies against the dollar friday ? is it to emphasize the beginning of a new USD trend just starting or is it just in relation to option expiration dates ? could u elaborate a little more and if u care to answer these questions ,I would be most grateful , ur views are indeed appreciated by the whole forum , thanks .

Athens 00:51 GMT February 22, 2004 Reply   
There is no doubt that since the early 1970's the USD has seen net losses against the major currencies (except v. the GBP). And surely a very long term chart I posted here some time ago illustrates the picture. That said, however, I wouldn't speak of some major intermediate moves as merely "some bounces". The mega trend (counter trend if you prefer) which brought $/DEM from 1.70 to nearly 3.50 in 1980-85 and to a lesser extent the move from 1.56 to 2.02 (1988-89) and again from 1.34 to 2.38 (1995-2000) have been both very large and long lasting and, beyond any doubt, anyone who took them lightly at the time is no longer active in the FX market (unless one didn't pay from one's own pocket...) In $/DEM terms the Dollar has depreciated by nearly 8500 points during the current major downtrend and by about 50% in the last three years. Whoever has followed closely the FX market in the last 30 years has a good measure of what these numbers mean. I am not saying that 1.29 necessarily is the end of a mega trend, however I am saying that the big picture is such that one shouldn't take a reverse move very lightly and without second thoughts. Well, perhaps this is only a "strange explanation by an amateur". As far as I am concerned, I will keep monitoring the market and trading it as it comes without sticking to long term scenarios.

Good luck to you all. I will be taking a long break from posting FX.

 




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