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Forex Forum Archive for 02/25/2004

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Ldn 23:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex (smiles) true
just as long as they dont all rush for the door at the same time

Melbourne Qindex 23:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 23:53 GMT - As long as they are not the last one, it should be okay. Cheers!

Belgrade Knez 23:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   

Can anybody please confirm does Japan market works today.
Thanks.

Ldn 23:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:26 even fund managers can misjudge the market and miss the boat

Atlanta. 23:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan's testimony suggests, before long, Fed may remove word "almost" from assessment that risk of unwelcome fall in inflation and risk of inflation "almost balanced," says WSJ Fed watcher Greg Ip; Greenspan said probability of deflation "now much lower." Ip says removal of word "almost" is needed before Fed can hike. Also, Greenspan comment "I think we are at price stability" suggests he may have lower tolerance for rise in inflation from here than colleagues; how that affects policy unclear though as Fed has no explicit inflation target.(Reuter)

Melbourne Qindex 23:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:33 GMT - USD/JPY : The market should have no problem to move ahead one weekly cycle step. The odds are good that the market will tackle the upper barrier of my weekly cycle. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 23:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Alicante RTN 23:36 GMT - I am talking about "Future" and I don't know the exact time.

Alicante RTN 23:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT February 25, 2004

I may be semi-senile, but I can't recall eurusd around 1.18 level last monday??? Did I miss something?

Dublin CK 23:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your answer last nite, I took your advice when considering my trades.

But once again what has the highest probablity of dollar/yen at these levels. This time last nite is was around 108.20 and you were correct in stating that it was more probable on the upside.

Personally I believe it is still up, but I am not quiet sure by how much.

Initial claims are out once again tmw, last week should an improvement but other factors were negative.

Rgds,

Colum

Melbourne Qindex 23:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT February 22, 2004
EUR/USD : I have a feeling that there will be a panic selling if we don't see enough buying interest at 1.1836. Basically if there is a strong downward movement of EUR/USD it is likely to consolidate around 1.1575 - 1.1863.

... // 1.1575* - 1.1671 - 1.1767 - 1.1863 - 1.1959* // ...


Melbourne Qindex 23:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:54 GMT February 22, 2004
EUR/USD : It is reasonable to believe that a lot of fund managers would like to take their profit and square part of their long positions on EUR/USD when the market is trading below 1.2727. Apparently the road towards 1.3495 was blocked at 1.2930 for the time being. The mid-point reference of 1.1959 - 1.3495 is 1.2727.

Ldn 23:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD's short-term trend "clearly bearish," especially after pair's topside "proved undisputedly firm at $1.27" overnight, says Japan bank dealer; says pair expected to break past psychologically-key 1.2500 mark to 1.2430 in Tokyo session, while tips EUR/USD's resistance at 1.2530. Pair last 1.2496. Adds Tokyo traders shrugging off Market News International's report ECB, BOJ preparing to intervene to weaken euro, as EUR/USD's declines this week "must have obviated need of intervention for Europe
AP

Melbourne Qindex 23:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Spotforex NY 23:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
US Tsy sure is grateful for the MOF's action......(The debt issuing dept).....

London 23:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
IMF endorses Tokyo yen interventionJapan was right to intervene massively in the foreign exchange markets, a "pragmatic" policy that had helped the economy and the fight against deflation, Horst Köhler, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said Wednesday

SanFranciso tg 23:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Spirit of the Buffalo lives on baby, all Shroeder has in Germany is sheep.

Global-View 23:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think this is enough discussion about GEP. He has been very open and should be congratulated for it. Otherwise, let's get back to the market.

london 22:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
come on guys, give GEP a break. i mean in all the time i've traded over the last 3 years, he is the only one that has consistently posted his trades. the day GEP goofed on his euro trades i also posted that the majors would correct downwards against the $ by 1%. well, so much for that view. however, here we are 1 day on and my view has now reaped dividends as i was convinced we would see a correction. i am still convinced we will see a further correction tomorrow downwards. but with the market the way it is at the moment i would not be surprised to see an adverse #correction# again.

until a new trend appears thats if we are not already in a trending ranging market, i would just play it safe and raid the market for reasonable gains but using sound money management.

i think GEP's style of trading with the exception of the euro fiasco the other day is really the way to go at the moment. cut those losses fast. gts

SanFranciso tg 22:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Schroeder can stuff it where the sun doesn't shine.

The German-French connection reaped the rewards of a weak currency during the clinton years, when the US dollar was inflated to the substantial detriment of the US economy, and in the end, the entire global economy.

The rebalancing of the USD to more sensible levels, but also shafts the origin of the economic sabotage which clinton supported, the EU politicians.

I'm enjoying every minute of it.

Caribbean! Rafe... 22:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Euro Pivots until major points taken out.

*major points*

** mid-points**

*1.2723*

**1.2611**

*1.2499*

** 1.2387**

*1.2276*

Ldn 22:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Schröder to warn Bush over dollar weaknessMr Schröder said the European Central Bank must be considering further action to lower interest rates in response to the US currency's continuing decline. He said he accepted the president's repeated declarations that the administration is not pursuing a deliberate weak dollar policy

London ADK 22:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:15 - You are astonishing ... you really are.

GVI john 22:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2500…. $/yen 109.00
DJIA 10,602, +35 pts…NASDAQ 2,023, +18 pts
10-yr 4.01%, -2 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI...

ICT ML 22:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I don't know Raven, sometimes I will take an immediate opposite $swiss possie if I have a cable possie that suddenly moves the wrong way, and I think it is just a stop hunt. That might not be a true hedge, but it definitely helps to reduce the equity drain in the account until I can figure out WTH I need to do about the situation, if anything.........sometimes even that won't help, but it has rarely added to the pain.....

cerete jd 22:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
not so fast on the downside wait for rate hikes!

Sydney Ge11Ja 22:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Morning all

its still a sell eur, aud and gbp story..... real money is buying usd to sq short positions... the longer this continues the more people will give up on 1.35/1.40 0.8200 and 2.0000

then they will focus large on the downside

for AUD today try a sell on rallies.. 0.7730-40?

Dallas GEP 22:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
No need to "POOR" me Raven. I am doing quite well overall this week even with the bonehead euro shorts from the other day!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 22:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
TP on eur/usd has been removed @ 1.2485. This could break down now. Stop at entry.

London DD 22:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Im off to bed after wiping out my account for the xx th time

Ldn 22:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
If ECB easing expectations are true it would add to factors likely to turn tide for USD, say CSFB strategists. If either U.S. authorities become hawkish or ECB dovish (more likely midyear) the fall in AUD/USD could potentially be dramatic.

Va Raven 22:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Poor Gep, I thought CS was teasing...........

Dallas GEP 22:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
CS mentioned that using USD/CAD was not a good hedge and I got to thinking about it and he is probably right because there are many times USD/CAD and EUR/USD can move the same direction. USD/CHF would be much better with Eur/usd.

London DD 22:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 21:59 GMT February 25, 2004
You people have well good memories. OK you was the one who wrote me the message in the help forum and said Forex is like chess right.

Dallas GEP 22:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
This is the pip up on Euro was referring to that was preceded by a drop on USD.CAD. Probably short lived but we are between sessions now.

LAX-LGB SNP 21:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
debtor - maybe i hacked into your system .... haha j/k

FWIW i rem you from the HF last yr

London DD 21:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I just finished my 11755 th game and read that --- are you a hacker?

London Debtor 21:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 21:52 GMT February 25, 2004
HUH???????????
How do you know Im playing chess???

LAX-LGB SNP 21:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LONDON DEBTOR 20:57
after all those games of chess - ya ought to change your name to Creditor now

Porto PJT 21:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
YES.... Porto/Manchester.

cerete jd 21:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
stops at 1.8740 will activate during the nigth!

Barcelona JP 21:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Place stop @ 1.8750.

Well, we'll see.

Good night to all and good luck!!!

Dallas GEP 21:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well I am not sure really JP. I would trail stop the pound shorts in case we have dollar dumping. I don't expect that, I really expect more dollar bullishness with slight pullbacks caused by the dollar bears.

Barcelona JP 21:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP

I'm going to bed with my cable short live (+180 pips).

Is it going to be a quiet overnight or will I have a nightmare?

atlanta 21:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Swiss US and UK names were all sellers of Aud following expiration of 0.7795 option strikes Aussie
corporates attempted to make a stand above 7750, but the attraction of stops below 7725 was too much to resist. Prices fell just below the last Fibo support at 7710 bounced back to 7730, before setting a fresh session low at 7705. The feeling that real money accounts selling from model accounts opens up talk of a retest of last week's 0.7645 low and a steep drop below. Recent action looks like an ABC correction and a fall to
wave equality target at 0.7456 (Dec high 0.7454) seems likely with the RBA on hold with tame wage numbers today. Tomorrow Aussie Q4 Capex, expected +3.1% y/y. AUD/NZD was hit hard, falling below 1.1250 and a stall below ifr

london cam 21:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Brazil,Sal JH 20:44 GMT February 25, 2004

JH Muito obrigado. It is clearer now.
GL GT

Melbourne Qindex 21:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 15:36 GMT - EUR/USD is under going a complex movement.

Dallas GEP 21:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Good Day's work Juan David. Congrats!!!

Melbourne Qindex 21:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 15:46 GMT - Good on you.

SanFranciso tg 21:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam - listen to Spot, he is very good. entering this week we saw strong potential for a test of 2300, with congestion spots of 2550 and 2660, each potentially acting as a pivot.

the current flow is clearly down but If 2400 holds we may very well see her retest of 2600 at which time I would consider cutting this trade unless there is very strong reason for more upside should that level be reached. I would also consider attending the trade around the 2550 pivot depending on conditions and conviction.

the weak U.S. dollar policy has not changed but at this stage you are left to hope that it continues this week. this is one of those tough positions where you could stand to lose a fortune or the selling turns out to be exhausted around here and you get all of your money back. if you decide to hold his position you must be prepared to wait in my opinion. Good luck, do not take this trade personally.

Melbourne Qindex 21:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 16:00 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

SF MRZ 21:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 18:22 GMT - nice observation
Thank you for your Ref.

Richard D. Wyckoff
Have you study him in school?

Four phases of the market
Any market according to Wyckoff is in one of four phases: Accumulation; Mark-up; Distribution; Mark-down

Reminds me of this docomentary on Forex I've seen when I was in college. "A Billion Dollar Day"


Dallas GEP 21:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
know=now

cerete juan david 21:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
made 25 grand today!

Melbourne Qindex 21:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Pgh wjs 16:53 GMT - You are welcome.

Dallas GEP 21:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dammit...Closed that usd.cad short too early. I would watch know for pound and euro to PIP UP.

Manama MT 21:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Prauge Viktor
Don't get surprise with these kind of comments from analysts.
They are reading the charts and comments.
Last month, an analysts commented that by end of March euro should correct to 1.17 prob 1.14. Immediately I bought a put option and still keeping. For long term, it is better to go for options.. I hope he is right according to the latest movement in the market. GL

Amsterdam Black Widow 21:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I consider EUR PUT option (same value) @ DEC/04, it will provide the time until than to enjoy both trades, this is my opinion.

Is it too risky?
Is there a chance to lose both?

Dallas GEP 21:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Been quite some time Debtor. London's CityBank???

GER ad 21:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam Black Widow 20:26,
IMHO the chance to see 1.2750 until March 7 is low. Why is this Date so important if is not an option?
But until now the market fails conviction so value like 1.2620 (maybe 1.2710) is possible if 1.2455 (1.2415) will hold.
If your risk is so high I would buy a put option to limit the downside risk. GL to you.

prauge viktor 20:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Its strange how all the analysists sudunlly just talking about the usd recovery a one week ago every one talk about the 1,3 1,32 level to the end of this week,and now they are talking about 1,176 level...

Spotforex NY 20:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
re: Euro - If 1.27xx is to be retested - then it has a chance of probing that level if an hourly close above 1.2550 occurs....

That is my short term pivot point....and you could breathe easier above that level....

NOTE: If you are 'concerned' about the euro when it is at 1.2500...say to yourself - what will it be like it it is 1.22??????

My best regards to Amsterdam

LONDON DEBTOR 20:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas remember me?

lugano rob roy 20:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam - I am absolutely agreed with Spotforex. If your position is too big for u, you must close it immediately. It's not important if 1, 2 or dozens of us think u can see 1.2750 in short time

Dallas GEP 20:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I have now closed my USD.CAD @ 1.3350 (-35 pips), mainly because dollar looks to rebound some more from here IMO. Plus this 1.3350 level is relatively strong support anyway. I also expect that we WILL see a 1.2450 test during Asia and a possible BREAK of that level in LATE Asia or London.

Chicago JMI 20:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I agree. If you have a big loss you should close the position and wait for the next trade. I longed euro from 1.27 yesterday and didn't close it and now I pay the consequences. Don't let your losers control you.

Spotforex NY 20:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
re: Euro - a break back below 1.2360/30 level will tell me that 1.18 is the objective.

The upside looks to have 1.2720 as my top for now.....

I have seen a lot of money lost on trades where "breakeven' is the 'best' scenario.....

NYC CS 20:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam - take a look at Euro/USD puts. You can cap your loss and hope that you get lucky...

NYC CS 20:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam - don't sell $/CAD as a hedge

Amsterdam Black Widow 20:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 20:40 GMT February 25, 2004 - It goes about few trades that managed to scalp mistakes, if I take the current negative value it means that my family six years back. this is my worry.

Do you see EUR goes to 1.2750+++ before 07/MAR/2004?

nyc jk 20:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nh - good example
Flip - interesting, being a goalkeeper though I like it haha
tg - thanks
sorry I have filled up so much space posting this afternoon, I will shut up now for today! gl and gt all

Chicago Irish 20:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam, I should also have said that if you can exit the trade with a painful loss now then do so, it is still better than a catastrophic loss later.

Brazil,Sal JH 20:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
The Platform I use allows you to (if you have a long to add
a short ) with no cost to your equity.
The problem with this system is the currency price can keep going until it is so for out of range you fell it will never come back. This is why you need deep packets haha!!!!
I'm a swing trader and got tried of my stops being HIT!!!
IT took me almost 2 years to get this system down.
And I only hedge if I feel like it will come back( like the yen did with me at 115.00. I hope this helps :-)

Spotforex NY 20:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
for the moment - I see the euro in a range of 1.230 to 1.28

It appears that the bottom of the range is to be tested near term. Below 1.2460 would increase my odds that 1.2330 is 'tested' quite quickly.

Your odds may suggest a retest of 1.2750 is possible before March 7th....but I would not bet my family's financial future on it.....Prepare for the worst....

Chicago Irish 20:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam:I think we are in a 1.2330-1.2800 range so you still have a shot at it in that time frame.The chorus of voices out of Europe calling for ECB rate cuts doesn't help your position.If you are fortunate enough to escape from your predicament at near cost or small loss do so at the first chance you get and never again bet what you can't afford to lose.Good luck to you.

Spotforex NY 20:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam Black Widow 20:26 - if one trade runs the risk of serious financial damage to a Family’s well-being - then you are in grave danger....

When a trade turns to hope - it has the natural inclination to move even more against you.

If such 'danger' is imminent - then the position should be close immediately.

Saudi Arabia Gamber 20:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hilton head island.SC
Ohh, good.
By the way, I have now 5 months in Forex. But, really I didn't understand spot options trading. what is the diff.

lugano rob roy 20:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Lifted stop-profit at 1.2580 for uschf bought yesterday at 1.2380. Just to catch 200 pts profit. Still long euchf

london cam 20:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Brazil,Sal JH 20:02 GMT February 25, 2004
JH Muito obrigado.
WHen you say you run a hedge, precisely what did you do? write an option, bought an option or simply opened another position in spot/futures market?

Hilton head island.SC Martha 20:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia,Gamber
thanks again,
I am an American but I speak Arabic.

Amsterdam Black Widow 20:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi all...I am confused (actually very confused),

I need EUR @ 1.2750+++ before 07/MAR/2004 to make sure that I did not harm the financial future of my family and myself, so please be honest to me and do not pull my/our legs.

Please tell me your opinion, sell/hold or rates forecasts until 07/MAR/2004 – again, please do not make jokes and please answer me on serious and respectful manner.

Thanks in advance and all the best.

SanFranciso tg 20:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JK - Can't thank you enough today. When running a former co. I had the unpleasant experience of watching how to do it completely wrong. The key trader did not follow policy of cutting trades with very small tolerance levels, and ultimately cost huge losses solely on a lack of discipline. Needless to say he fell out of favor of myeself and investors.

The same policies called for reversing position in counter markets to spread the cost almost immediately upon incurring negative value for a trade and then allowing the true flow to take its course. In this fashion you were not simply positioned on both sides right away opening yourself up for the double whammy of both stops being hit, but made an educated decision first and then adjusted if necessary.

The wrong position could be cut in the end with the other making a modest gain. Discipline - tight parameters - fast adjustment. That is what I have seen work.

Amsterdam Black Widow 20:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi all...I am confused (actually very confused),

I need EUR @ 1.2750+++ before 01/MAR/2004 to make sure that I did not harm the financial future of my family and myself, so please be honest to me and do not pull my/our legs.

Please tell me your opinion, sell/hold or rates forecasts until 07/MAR/2004 – again, please do not make jokes and please answer me on serious and respectful manner.

Thanks in advance and all the best.

Dublin Flip 20:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
That's a groovy little observation jk.
I heard once (from a sport phycologhist) that when a footballer take a penalty the natural, overriding complusion is to kick it towards the keeper. weird huh
catch you guys tom......
Be lucky

Saudi Arabia Gamber 20:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hilton head island.SC

u r so welcome. this forum is really nice with all the people using it. it is here to share ideas and forex education. But advertisment and commercial things I think it is not welcomed here. but sometimes u have to help people even if it is against the rules.

alafooo. !! 3rabi?

London 20:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD gave ground heavily during the US session on a
Market News International story which quoted ECB sources as saying a rate cut will be discussed at the upcoming rate setting meeting March 4. EUR/USD, already under pressure during the US session, dropped from 1.2605/10 to a low of 1.2475 on the news, and nearly 2.5 cents on the day. Schroeder earlier in the day called for the ECB to lower rates. MNI suggests that a cut could be part of deal requiring structural labor mkt and financial service reform from the Eurogroup.
Some see the ECB going a full 50 bps in an attempt to send the clearest possible signal to the market on their seriousness in reversing EUR/USD strength.It's been a brutal month for the mkt, and today was just the latest of a series of nasty reversals and near-reversals for the EUR. Dealers are now
looking to sell bounces in EUR/USD after many were either caught long .Ap.

Dublin Flip 20:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JK, That also implies (and confirms what I've believed for a long time) during trends people generally take profits too early as well. I find the hardest thing to do when a long term trend is underway is to do nothing.

Livingston nh 20:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
jk - the late lamented equity bubble is the "proof" of the inability to accept losses - a lot of folks rode the nasdaq up but couldn't sell for fear they would be the bottom// fear and greed


nyc jk 20:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks Flip. hey it obviously works for you so fair enough, I wasn't disagreeing with you really but just saying I have had a different experience. cheers

nyc jk 20:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, these are some partial notes from an investor presentation that I gave in which I was asked to outline my approach to risk management -

Some of the best work I have ever seen into how people manage risk and uncertainty was conducted by two Israeli psychologists - Daniel Kahneman (Princeton) and Amos Tversky (Stanford).

First published in 1979, Prospect Theory, won a Nobel Prize for Kahneman last year (Tversky passed away a few years ago)

Prospect Theory answers questions dealing with how people make choices when faced with uncertain outcomes. One of the most striking findings is an asymmetry in the way people make decisions involving gains vs losses. The major driving force in people's decision making is “loss aversion” , i.e. people don’t hate uncertainty but they hate losing (being "wrong"). In fact they found that a loss has 2.5 times the mental impact of a gain the same size.

How does this behavioral fact manifest itself? Investors/traders hate to take losses therefore are a lot happier when they are right frequently. Prospect theory predicts people with losses will gamble in preference to accepting a sure loss, therefore holding losing positions too long.

Hilton head island.SC Martha 20:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Saudi Arabia Gamber
thank you very much
you are much nicer than all those censored who couldn't utter a word
shoukran jazeelan

LAX-LGB SNP 20:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
once again, i have missed an interesting scrap between big cats, bigger cats and everyone in between.

phils vl 05:38 GMT February 25, 2004
i guess new equipment is the only resort ... many moons ago, a mouse gave up on me coz some real mice munched off the casing wire ;-)

OMIL
starting to wonder if EURUSD catches weekly 21sma first or vice-versa ... favour the first scenario obviously if $CHF can break off the top of 1.22-1.26 range
FWIW $CAD looks to be loading up for one more 1.34 test

Dublin Flip 20:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
No probs at all JK.- I just can't imagine those people were medium to longer term traders. If anyone thinks that the moment they buy or sell a single trade will be some divine high or low they sound a little deluded to me. It stand to reason that (unless one happens to have an enormous order behind them) that 99.99% of the times every trade will be out of the money by either a couple of pips or big figs at some stage. I can say I've sold absolute tops and bought lows but that's not because I'm some trading guru but if one trades alot it has to happen on occaision if you of the sell high, sell higher- buy low, buy lower predispostion. I'm sure that you've done well and I'm sure we all could debate trading styles but like I said "no two people trade the same way". I've worked with people who have never taken an overnight position, guys on cash registers jobbing in 10pip ranges (which I've done) with no view on anything economic or technical yet I can't say that either is my "go". The main thrust of my trading philosphy is that if you should continually trade your positions increasing and decreasing (profits hopefully) yet keep a fair amount of risk in reserve. The market is noisy use it don't avoid it.

Va Raven 20:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SK, I don't have a strong view on that pair, but my guess is possible to see 112, but I do have a strong view on eur/usd and that pair is heading to somewhere under 1.2 in the short term from now might see it before this month end or very early March.
Sorry, don't want to say something I don't have a read.

Dallas GEP 20:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Yep I agree Irish, Just like being a Bookie, you get the juice whether the client wins or loses!!!!!

Chicago Irish 20:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Best way to make money is to own a retail platform and let the clients trade on the highest possible leverage........simple fact of life and proven to be profitable.

OK SZ 20:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I was thinking that to...thanks GEP..

Memphis Charles 20:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
F......X........C.........M hhhhmmmmmmm.......

Saudi Arabia Gamber 20:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hilton head island.SC

I think the best platform using all kind of Trades is which
S A X O Bank has.

Memphis Charles 20:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
censored, hhhhmmmmm.

Dallas GEP 20:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Yes guys (SZ and Charles) Sidekick has it right

Memphis Charles 20:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for forwarding that address Jay.

Hilton head island.SC Martha 20:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys,
I know i am bothering you but please give me an answer if you have one.
Would anyone please tell me if there is a good platform that has both FX and Spot options. I am currently using R E F C O but they have two separate platforms.
thank you guys


Va Raven 19:14 GMT February

Brazil,Sal JH 20:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Tue at 1.2595 I was long (Eur/dir) wasn't sure where it was going from there, I run a hedge then sold eur at 1.2685 and close the hedge today at 1.2508...

If I would have been wrong on when to close I would have waited until it came back around, I only use a small % to trade. the key is to have deep packets :-)

Belgium sidekick 20:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP by any chance, is it F--***X***--C--**M you're trading with?
As I'm using a similar strategy due to their no-slippage policy even on gaps

Dublin CK 20:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 19:49 GMT February 25, 2004

Great idea! I've thinking as well to scour the archives for various techniques in fx trading to compile information for a book or article or MBA thesis (With everyone's permission of course). Ranging from money management to $27 million lunches & 25 year silver investments.

Have a quote from one of the esteemed contributors, with what they meant below it, with charts, arrows, further explanation.

Instead of "Interview with a trader" which is a specific questions and answers. Have "Listening to a trader", which is more of a watch them while they work, like watching animals in the natural habitat.

I would want everyone's permission first. Jay et al being the first.

Who said before on this forum, best ways to make money out of this game was to be a service provider or write a book.

Ps: Could always have a chapter on pingu records LOL

Memphis Charles 20:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Sounds fine. However, it's good for Jay to go ballistic every now and then.

Dallas GEP 20:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raven, That's my point EXACTLY. I do appreciate what you guys are saying. Hellll I am wrong about things all the time!!! Thanks my Friend!!!

OK SZ 19:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep, do you mind if I get that also?

HKG SK 19:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven

Back to the market. Do you see $/yen going to 112 or even 115 by end of March???

Ldn 19:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
pd cumino do you see any violent moves into close of NY today, remember a few months ago now you predicted the aussie to drop quite rapidly just before you went off line , infact it must be a year ago

Va Raven 19:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ok Gep, do whatever is working for you till not, but believe me, you will appreciate what others said today rather quickly (trust you are a smart guy) in the near future.
Let's drop off ths and focus on the market. Good luck, mate!

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Charles I wouldn't want Jay to go ballistic on us. There IS a catch to it as well but I will let Jay know that you may have my email address. OK???

Atlanta 19:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GOLD: April Ends $8.70 Lower As US Dollar Climbs

Memphis Chas 19:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I'm genuinely curious.

london cam 19:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Brazil,Sal JH 19:49 GMT February 25, 2004
It would be useful to some of us here if you could give us a couple of examples. TIA

Memphis Charles 19:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP, tell us who you are trading with - put extra spaces in, asterisks, whatever you need to defeat the automatic editor.

Dallas GEP 19:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raven, my platform guarantees stops even over the weekend so that is something probably unique to them. So I can put a stop say 15 pips from entry on oppossing possies and they will honor it EVEN if the market gaps 60 PIPS for example.

I had a 10 pip stop for IE on a USD/CHF short over the weekend and a 20 PIP stop on a EUR/USD long over the weekend and the SWISSY got stopped @ 10 pip loss but Euro made +45 pips and you are absolutely correct, I probably would NOT do it unless a gap was probable.

ICT ML 19:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Fellas...think I have the answer....JAY, please set up an online class for money management techniques, covering every type of trading....scalping, intraday, swing, and position trading......pick whomever you feel is most qualified to host the class, perhaps someone not recognized here...so people aren't singled out..

I would in fact be interested in some learning about areas I am not so hot at, but need to get that way quick :-)

Brazil,Sal JH 19:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Just because you are unable to gt hedging to work for you
dosn't means it dosn't work, I'm a full time trader and been using it for years.

nyc jk 19:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
good way to put it Nottingham. My response to our friend from Dublin was not made flippantly (sorry couldn't resist!), but rather truthfully from my experience. backs up what you say.

Dallas GEP 19:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I agree CS, options will probably work just as well. Maybe the way I trade works only for me, I dunno. All I can say is it DOES work for me but I am not claiming it to be viable for others because I wouldn't know about that to be sure.

What I DO know however is that Sharks depend upon typical trading behavoirs patterns in order to feast upon their victims. I get eaten at times just like everybody else, but not very often. Number one, I am not in the water very long. Number two, I generally try for singles and doubles 20-30 PIPS IE), I will trail stop my winning trades and I try to be as unemotional about price movements as I can be and at times my instincts are better than most and I follow them.

There are certainly better traders and technicians than I on this board. I learn from them and I try to share my views as well. It ALL helps.

Nottingham 19:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 19:30 GMT

How about>>>different routes, same destination...but always using the same vehicle; that word discipline that you mentioned

nyc jk 19:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Flip - re your "I can categorically say I have never seen, in all my years, a successful longterm or medium term trader who doesn't average into a position."

Well having been trading since 1989, I can categorically say I have never seen in all my years, a successful longterm or medium term trader who DOES average into a position. I guess we have been hanging out with different people LOL.

Chicago Irish 19:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
CK:He has funded his position to absolute zero and even has instructions that silver be sold at 10.00 in case he dies and that his relatives and friends have a night out in his honour.Great character.

Nottingham 19:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Good post Dublin Flip...in short I'd say, assume nothing prepare for everything...and in these times it's not easy to truely achieve that but so be it in order to be successful

Chicago Irish 19:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
That's a classic Texas hedge you're decribing there GEP............A Texas hedge that goes wrong is usually followed by an O'Hare trade in Chicago :-)

Va Raven 19:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep, I have no intention to drag you around by all means and I think I know what you are trying to say.... but my friend, that's not "hedging", you are simply gambling. It only makes some sense when you do that kind of trade seconds before some scheduled but market view heavily mixed on teh outcome, such as FOMC meeting. BUt even that your stops on both trades opposite to each other are hard to set - because you could be jubbed out at both ends in second before the market finds its way...... think about.

nyc jk 19:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP, some good points but let me ask you this - what if you were wrong in your assessment that a certain range would hold and a retracement was imminent. the majority of times the market will retrace and allow you to at least get out with less of a loss, but sometimes you get a sustained one way run. what would have happened if last night EUR broke 1.2740/50 and we walked in this a.m. staring at 1.29 , etc? at what point would you have thrown in the towel on the EUR short? would you have said 1.29 is resistance therefore I will average some more and look for a retracement? then what would have happened then if it broke through 1.29? would you have waited for ECB to intervene, etc? at some point would you have said this trade is wrong, or just wait for the margin call to make that decision for you?

Dublin Flip 19:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Just popped back in for five minutes....
"Money management" just means know your limitations and take into consideration both your capital and your comfort with risk. I can categorically say I have never seen, in all my years, a successful longterm or medium term trader who doesn't average into a position. It's just weird to rule out the single biggest single trading advantage and developed skill from ones armoury. The problem isn't averaging, it's because people don't tailor their initial position sizes to a possible modulation in their view, or the event risk or that the prevailing changing market conditions change (from trending to range trading for example). Most people unfortunately see 00/05 and think "is it going up or down???" and then put a bet of X size on.
Professional gambling is about assigning a trade size to the risk element and reward value. If you ever watch a professional gambler in any field he knows that some things no matter how irresistible are not worth risking his money. The outcome is just too fuzzy. Alternately working in the markets means the price perennially changes and moves with market noise. If one uses all his risk on the "one bet" type mentality he then can't take advantage of jobbing the static to improve his core position. I for instance may have a position that starts at 3X may grow to 20X (or whatever it's irrelevant) but the X all get traded individually- partial stops, partial profits, looping orders in quiet market etc. An all or nothing approach means you have to be completely stopped out because at some stage everyone has the experience wrong. Yes Everyone. If you can maintain, minimize and live to fight again on difficult days, accrue on quiet days then any knucklhead can make money on the “gift” days that arrive when we least expect them.
Something I learnt very early no two people trade the same.

Dublin CK 19:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish: U should tell yer man in Taiwan to buy some more silver now,to try and half his BEP.

Its around 6.50 at the moment, ten year high was around 7.80 back in '98.

Its definitely on an uptrend. Investing the same amount now, in the expectation of silver reaching that '98 high would cover his money term losses.

Plus it would be a good ending to his 25 year story.

However, can lighting strike twice?

NYC CS 19:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dalla GEP - that's not hedging...it's derisively called "Texas Hedging" in the business, connoting that only cowboys do it. Counting on historical correlation to mitigate losses on a bad position doesn't make much sense. Only way to really hedge a trade that is causing you anxiety is to use options.

Dallas GEP 19:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raven, IMO it does make sense if the two positions are on basically different timetables and especially if there is some doubt as to whether the bulls or bears are in charge. Every Friday I generally initiate possies just before close that are BOTH USD positive and USD negative. One will stop out (at reasonable stop level) and the other one makes money. This WILL and HAS worked if market gaps. Of course BOTH could stop out as well!!! LOL But that hasn't happened yet.

SanFranciso tg 19:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raven and ML - I understand fully and have been there myself. I think it depends on how tight your risk parameters are in either case. Things such as a loss of 25 pips must be unacceptable, or a loss > .5 percent total value is not acceptable per trade.

Memphis Charles 19:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
What GEP describes is more akin to a spread trade than the notion of somebody hedging foreign currency translation risk.

Hilton head island.SC Martha 19:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hello guys,
Would anyone please tell me if there is a good platform that has both FX and Spot options. I am currently using R E F C O but they have two separate platforms.
thank you guys

Va Raven 19:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep, there is no such thing called "hedging" in spot trading, it doesn't make any sense to your P&L, think about it!

Nottingham 19:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD 19:02 GMT

without irrationality there would be no (almost) risk free opportunities...but you need to make sure you're still in the game and able to profit from it when "rationality" reurns and most importantly, that your plan is accurate in it's analysis of irrationality

nyc jk>>>I dread the day of A.I. !!! Good trades to you

ICT ML 19:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
tg....I agree with Ravens statement....I took way more dangerous and high risk positions when it was only my $$$ at stake...because I could afford to pay the consequences....thought it would be the other way, but its not, for me anyway....because I don't know that my old ladies from Taiwan would like to hear that I had a hunch and blew out 75% of their account on it.....

Its all good until you have a stupidly huge loss....been there, done that, don't want to do it again.

Dallas GEP 19:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
MT, the reason for the TP at 1.2480 is a fairly simple one. That's been it's low for the day and I expect it will touch it again (1.2475 BID/ 1.2480 ASK). I also think it will break 1.2450 level but maybe not until Asia.

On a sidenote, A part of money management is whether or not you can buy yourself out of a bad trade and IF you have the ability to hold a bad trade while taking other possies that are profitable. If one were to assess that a certain range was to occurr and you beleived that retracement was imminently probable, then why not hold a trade as a position trade???? This requires that you do not over committ monies to any one possie. You should have at any point in time no more than 20% of your total equity for ALL trades (10% preferably, 5% to be more conservative). I generally DO NOT believe in averaging. I will use it generally when the original position I have taken is smaller than normal size to begin with. I would say out of 50 trades, I MIGHT average one ot two at most. I will hedge trades at times. For example, earlier it looked like Euro might just bounce back up 35-50 points LONG so since I was already SHORT euro, I felt like I needed a USD negative possie so I took USD/CAD short which also at the time appeared heavy chartwise. Obviously the Euro shorts DID short and I took profit on them leaving me a USD/CAD short possie which will also short in time on it's own merits BECAUSE 1.3320 is a pivot point on the pair.

Chicago Irish 19:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
CK:I know a guy in Taiwan who has been long silver at 9.11 for about 25 years now and he's held it because he believes he will make money on the trade,of course he is a billionaire and it's been a great trading horror story for him to entertain his buddies with.

HKG SK 19:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD

Is Sigmund Fraud.

Atlanta 19:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Late-day trading below $1.2514 would signal an extended selloff, as low as the $1.2350 support area.

ICT ML 19:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
back to trading, a classic scenario on gbp/jpy right now, just bounced a bit off its breakout point, which is the support if it heads higher......so buying into it with a stop under, or selling a clean break is a good trade IMHO

HKG SK 19:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven

No hard feeling.

Miami OMIL 19:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well I would love to keep talking about money management but I have to go get some rest for the next round see you later everyone. (/;-> GL GT

London DD 19:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 18:58 GMT February 25, 2004
Who is S Fraud? You are right its about psychology. Humans are not rational as supposed by economic/equilibrium theory. Money can only be made in markets because of human irrationality (IMO). Has anyone read the alchemy of Finance by George Soros - good book on psychology of finance....

Va Raven 19:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SanFranciso tg 18:57
Believe me mate, trading someone else's moeny is mre difficult than trading your own money if you ever manage teh other people's money.

nyc jk 19:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, well good for you being in that 0.1% ! hope it continues that way for you.

cheers tg, discipline they key, you are correct.

Va Raven 19:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well, SK, then I have to read your post more carefully before reply..... but I thought you meant I was trying to do "something"..... sorry mate, if I read you wrong there.

HKG SK 18:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD

Psycology is the name of the game. S Fraud took a long time to understand that.

SanFranciso tg 18:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JK - thanks for spelling out in terms the small guy trading his own money can understand and which applies. In many respects the small guy has to have more guts than the big gag trading someone else's money for bank and be even tighter with managing the money. the one word to always remember is "discipline". Manage your money as JK spells out.

Rye, NY et 18:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD 1.2495;cut 1.2430;take 1.2650

PAR 18:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Where to place stop in JPY above 110.00 ?

HKG SK 18:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven

I did read your view before I reply. I respected your view because I founded that I have known you very well from this forum. You have been around this forum for a consider period of time. I always have respected your view and will always do so.

London DD 18:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 18:48 GMT February 25, 2004
The FX market is only in the mind??? So all my losses were just my immagination?

Ldn 18:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Greg Anderson, currency stra"It's increasingly less likely that that the euro will break through $1.28 because European officials are on top with verbal intervention," he said. "And we're probably not going to break through $1.24 because that's where the market would be squared up."
tegist at ABN Amro in Chicago,

Nottingham 18:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 18:45 GMT

in 99.9% of cases you are absolutely right...in my case my trading system made no losses during 2003...without going into detail all bases are covered (even thinking outside the box) before a trade is signalled so I might only get 12-30 signals per year per pair but they are always winners...gl gt

Barcelona JP 18:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
CABLE has retracted 50% FIBO from 1,8451/1,8946 @ 1,8695.

61,8 FIBO is @ 1,8636

Va Raven 18:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 18:48 - suggest you read my post carefully before respond...... otherwise you make me feel hard to reply.

London DD 18:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 18:44 GMT February 25, 2004
Good point. I always find it strange when people say that "if FX was easy we'd all be millionaires" because then we would all have to simultaneously bankrupt seeing FX is pretty much zero sum game......

HKG SK 18:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
VA Raven

there is no one in the world to understand the currency market. Is only in the mind. To try and understand it will make you depressed. Do not do that.

Barcelona JP 18:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
That is what I posted today:

Barcelona JP 17:18 GMT February 25, 2004
Next stops in cable:

1,8694 - 1,8636 - 1,8551

Will we see them?

THE LOW IN CABLE HAS BEEN NOW 1,8695.
ISN'T THAT WONDERFUL?

Dublin CK 18:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I know this isnt totally related to FX chit chat,

But just looking at todays comment, it reminds me of a chapter of a book I read

"Ego is perhaps the only rational explanation I can give for one particular expensive lunch on Wall St. In fact, this astonishing lunch was not for a crowd of people or even for an extravagant couple - just for one man. One individual trader. A trader who entered into a single bond order, established no stops, then left the building for lunch. The lunch ended up costing $27 million.....without a tip.

Sure enough, the Federal Reserve elected to use this very day and lunch hour to intervene in the markets.A fast market was soon underway against him and the brokers who had been given this order executed his instruction to the letter. Poof !"

The lesson I learned from this incident was firstly, stops are valuable in the preservation of capital, secondly the bigger the ego, the bigger the eventual fall, thirdly just because u manage 7,8,9,10 figures does not mean you are any better at it than a person managing 1,2,3,4 figures.

Each to there own.

I really appreciate all the useful comments on this forum. Not only does it help me make money, but also and more importantly stop me from entering into losing ones.






Va Raven 18:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
In simple words; MM is the way you plan to gain or lose, period.
Based on that, you execute your view resulting from your understanding and reading of the finiancial market.

nyc jk 18:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, would have to disagree. A lot of trading systems tout their high % of winners, but yet their overall performance is very poor. If 8 out of 10 trades your make earn your 20 pips and 2 out of 10 you lose 2 big figures, you are not going to come out ahead. It is not frequency that is important, but rather magnitude - how much you make when you are right vs how much you lose when you are wrong. for example, I use a trend following model for a part of my portfolio. it loses money about 6 out of every 10 trades it does, but yet it is a profitable system because it takes small losses when wrong and catches the major moves when right. money management is important for ALL systems.

Miami OMIL 18:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD 18:31 GMT February 25, 2004
Look at it this way you need good foundation to build your house. The foundation is the money management; if you have money management then all now you need to do is to build a house (which is your system). If everyone that was trading here had more winning positions than loosing positions than we would all be rich IMHO. (/;->

Barcelona JP 18:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
1.8696

London 18:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
A sudden, dramatic plunge in opinion polls has panicked New Zealand's center-left government into backing down on unpopular policies, particularly those providing entitlements based on race.
The dive in popularity, accompanied by a surge in support for the opposition National Party, was sparked by National leader Don Brash's speech in January that attacked what he called preferential treatment for Maori.
NZP

FW CS 18:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Euro
Rising window (or gap on bar chart) from 1.2453 to todays futures low at 1.2469. If this window gets filled and closes under it then uptrend can be considered dead according to candlestick analysis.

Barcelona JP 18:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
New low 1,8708

Barcelona JP 18:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Are we ready to new lows in cable today?

London DD 18:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
You know what one day I would love to take all you guys to my economics lecturer who is so sure that the markets are a random walk.

Nottingham 18:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
re money mangement...think it's only a necessity when you are compromised by your trading system/technique i.e. if your win loss ratio is less than 80% winners...if it's greater than that if never becomes an issue...so all down to the trading system imo

nyc jk 18:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
well tg, here are a few guidelines I would suggest based on my years in the market and extensive reading and research. all imo of course.-

- MOST top traders don't average losing positions. while it may give you mental comfort to see your "average improving", throwing good money after bad is seldom a sustainable plan.
- know where/when you are going to get out of a trade before you get in it. whether it be a hard stop based on % of capital, a stop based on a break of support/resistance, a technical condition that is has changed (ie if you got in a position because of an MACD signal and the market has reversed making the original reason for the trade invalid, get out), etc.
- have a positive expected value for trades using your trading system or style. don't fall in the trap of thinking a very high percentage of winning trades is necessarily all that matters. if you ride losses of big figures to make a few pips, you are increasing your risk of ruin and the potential for disaster.

Barcelona JP 18:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
So, GEP's trade looks rewarding.

What I don't know is if the sharks will let it be that way.

Barcelona JP 18:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think that, if eur/usd breaks 1,2450, it will fall to 1.2390 at least and, if it breaks the trend from 1,0761 @ 1,2390, eur/usd will be in bearish mode.

HKG SK 18:32 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trader do not think they loose. Whenever they made a trade they are at least 75% sure they will win. If you think that they loose more than they win than you are not a trader you are a gambler.

London DD 18:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
What is the poin of having good money management if you have a losing system tool. You only manage to lose it more slowly than quickly like me.

Chicago Irish 18:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
TG:You already know that I think money management is more important than any trading tool.

Va Raven 18:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading, by the nature, it's an activity of money mangement regardless of you being a yard-trader or a lot-trader.
Even a player at the casino needs to manage his fund to get the "best out of it", no?

Miami OMIL 18:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SanFranciso tg 18:16 GMT February 25, 2004

Money management is one of the most important tools (if not the most important tool) that a trader has. I believe that this applies to any trader regardless of the amount of money you are trading. You must minimize your losses and maximize your gains there will almost always be more losses than gains IMHO. (/;->

LA saint3 18:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
saint2 is dead!!!

Bahrain MT 18:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Hi. by TP at 1.2480. Do u expect a retracement on the pair from that point. and upto where ?

Bahrain MT 18:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Hi. by TP at 1.2480. Do u expect a retracement on the oair from that point. and upto where ?

HKG SK 18:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LA saint3

I met saint1 the other day and he told me he hasn't seen sanit2 for a ahile. Do you know where he is?

Oakland Daimyo 18:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SF MRZ 17:35

Oakland Daimyo 18:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SF MRZ--- I agree, this is the exact scenario I've been tracking all year. Food for thought Ref:
Oakland Daimyo 16:26 GMT February 24, 2004
Oakland Daimyo 16:18 GMT February 18, 2004
Oakland Daimyo 05:32 GMT February 16, 2004
Oakland Daimyo 14:30 GMT January 27, 2004
Question: Do you use Wyckoff’s concept of “composite operator” ?

HKG SK 18:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Do anyone seeing Yen going to 112 by Friday???

LA saint3 18:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy is on the sell mode!

Dallas GEP 18:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I have a SELL order @ 1.2440 which allows for a break of 1.2450 with a stop on that one of 1.2463

vancouver jpb 18:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
you have a "beautiful mind"

SanFranciso tg 18:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I have a question for the professional traders who quietly view this forum. While the necessity of proper money management is fully understood, for both the little guy and the professional, why would any professional assert that portfolio management techniques should apply for the little guy trading his own money?

even though disciplined money management must apply for both, the two arenas are very different. I'm sure all below guys in this forum would appreciate any advice you may have regarding money management where it pertains to the little guy.

HKG SK 18:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
When everyone turn bearish on dollar, dollar will rise. This is what we call Nash's equlibrium. When everyone want to go after the most beautiful girl in town, noone will get her. If everyone diversify and they will get the girl they want.

Miami OMIL 18:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
NH I also see 1.2350-30 area as the major support or gateway for the correction numbers I have stated before I will get out of my short only if this number fails to be broken. If it is broken than the down side could give way to what I commented before. (/;->

Miami OMIL 09:16 GMT February 20, 2004
I know it is a bit early to discount the bulls but if the bears continue to dominate then the retracement from November’s move is roughly 1.2335-40, 1.2155-60 and 1.1970-75. There is a bigger retracement from September and these are the rough estimate numbers as they have changed from last time I posted them (1.2095-1.2100, 1.1840-50 and 1.1590-1.1600) IMHO. (/;-> GL GT to everyone the turbulent times are here, as I feared. Let the games begin.

Tallinn viies 18:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
planning to go long near the 1,2450.
moves more than 250 points per day are not common (if to consider that move is based on rumour only) I doubt it can be sustained...
althoughfrom tommorow it can fall like a stone again...

Dallas GEP 17:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 1.2480 I mean!!!

Livingston nh 17:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Omil fwiw 1.2350 is nearest support if 55 da EMA breaks - we could get some real volatility on break into london and then US initial unemployment claims (wild card is the final release of PPI whenever they can get the numbers right)

SanFranciso tg 17:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nh 17:52 - nice point.

Dallas GEP 17:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Adjusted TP on Euro shorts to be 1.2580 now. I too think USD longs may be running out of steam at least for now, BUT it is lunchtime!!!

Miami OMIL 17:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I may be a bit early with my figures but if 1.2480-75 holds then we may see a retracement to 1.2565-70, 1.2590-95 and 1.2620-25. What a coincidence that these figures were support before Hmmm. Resistance is at around 1.2610-20 and 1.2640-50. All these numbers are rough number at the moment until the picture clears a bit IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

SF MRZ 17:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Looks like trailing stops gets taken out, money too close to the sharks.

Livingston nh 17:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn - why should the Fed do anything? Money Supply is doing the job and credit allocation will follow // there are REAL consequences to raising interest rates and the Fed is not inclined to do that unless "FOCED" to do so by bond market

Va Raven 17:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I was trying to ask some views on GBP crosses earlier today, but felt like walking into the casino floor - all slot machine noise

Euro Boy 001 17:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think will try to Buy some Euro"s here for some pipos

and Sell more USD/J..

ICT ML 17:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ravan...I agree, but I think a balance of some mid-short term trend following or swing possies, and some $$$ set aside for the little raids like today keep a guy sharp, and more inclined to stay focused on the market......for me it does anyway....

Your gbp view now?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bed time

trail eur short from 1.28 @ 1.2508.

Keep the rest.

Set jpy T/P 109.50 if it hit tonight for the lot from 108.05.

Ldn 17:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GER ad I suppose he is now too old to retire and do as they do Out West in the old cowboys movie die with his boots on

beirut jb 17:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:42 GMT February 25

well MM is key of success ,plz can u share ur method

beirut jb 17:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
longed eur/$ again stop 12440

GER ad 17:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 17:29 GMT,
Still to young to retire (only 78 in few days).
His fourth 4-year term ending June 20, 2004 but yesterday was a talk that he will be reappointed.

Va Raven 17:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Got it, NH, thanks.

Va Raven 17:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I see most people here care less about the real money mangement but more instant reaction to the price actions minute by minute.......
I am not saying it's good or bad, but I do know it's not the way to make stable income.

Ldn 17:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
One thing I noticed just lately , most of the newswires and Business programes have analysts now calling for a rate hike sooner than later to get it over with, it seems as if the are massaging the market to get them used to the idea along with Greenspan this is his pattern.

Miami OMIL 17:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ML you are right the $ strength is winding down for today. In my view eur/usd will bounce from here before giving a try at the 1.2450 barrier. For a better position it is better to wait to see how high this bounce will go IMHO. (/;->

Rye, NY et 17:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Long AUD/USD .7730;cut;7700;take .7780

Livingston nh 17:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 17:29 - term is up in June - he would probably be asked to stay on until election - BUT he will bow out if the administration is on shaky election grounds so the Pres can name replacement

ICT ML 17:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
closed the U$D long possies for a few pips each......don't trust the greenback as far as I can throw one except on Fridays .......if it breaks through, I'll reconsider

SF MRZ 17:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts on Eur/$, I think big long positions are slowly unwinding with profit. Looks like short term Eur/$ longs are use to draw more volume to short, building the customer base for the reverse play. FWIW

beirut jb 17:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ make or break here, if 124.5 tested and broken next test 12330, if not it may test hi again

Livingston nh 17:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raven - my point is Fed goes first - even odds which way though - bonds always lag inflation so we get a hike from the Fed once the bond market gets wind of inflation ("core" rate is the same scam as "productivity")

Tallinn viies 17:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
closed my short euro at 1,2493 fwiw
thnks a lot

Ldn 17:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Fed's Poole: FOMC Should Be Prepared To Surprise
The Federal Reserve must be prepared to respond to unexpected changes in the economic outlook, even if the response comes as a surprise to financial markets, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Wednesday
"Should an inflationary shock hit the economy, for example, that shock and an increase in the FOMC's target federal-funds rate would both be surprises," Poole said. Even as this may be the case, he added that "the FOMC should communicate its intention about monetary policy as precisely as possible in order to get markets in synch with policy."

Ldn 17:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
When is greenspan retiring

Va Raven 17:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well, not too sure I understand your point right, but certainly enjoy your view on FED - you always have something unique.

Livingston nh 17:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raven - I think the secret ingredient here is inflation (I know, I know no such thing anymore) but the Fed follows rates so the bond market will "force" the Fed to hike // the scary side of this in my view is that the Fed may actually cut again - there is a long term unemployed problem building // Oh yeah, BTW the Fed Chairman is probably not going to stay and that news should have some impact

vancouver jpb 17:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
It will be interesting to see how the market accepts Greanspan's little chat. The Next Hour should be ..... well I don't know.

Anybody got any view where the EUR/USD is going from here?

HKG SK 17:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ECB wants a lower Euro. If US hike or not and ECB cut or not Euro still needs to go down.

Memphis Charles 17:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
It will probably make NY Bill sick, but I did exit my Euro short trades today (mentioned yesterday) for a reasonably decent profit. Unfortunately had limit orders set too high and left moolah on the table.

Va Raven 17:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
So, NH, what you are saying is that ECB and FED is playing the game; if you hike, I don't have to cut, otherwise, you don't have to hike, I cut?
Who is to make the move first this time and what if none of them?

Porto PJT 17:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd trendline at 61.

HKG SK 17:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dublin Flip

Watch 1.2480, trying to break at this point. I can see firework coming soon.

Dallas GEP 17:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
DP yeah, there will be some buying before 1.,2450 for sure. I have TP @ 1.2460 on Euro Short now.

Dublin Flip 17:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
The eur/jpy really needs to finish below 135.80/00 to get the ball rolling
cheers

Miami OMIL 17:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 17:13 GMT February 25, 2004
I hope so but I believe we still have a lot of option barriers and supports that are not going to be easy to break IMHO. (/;->

Barcelona JP 17:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Next stops in cable:

1,8694 - 1,8636 - 1,8551

Will we see them?

Chicago Irish 17:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
chicago Cal:Quite a few eyes on that 1.2450 area but also hearing of option interest structured below that might make Euro bears lives difficult.......

Dublin Flip 17:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SK, by friday may be a bit quick but I'm in agreeance with the gist of your view.

Kaunas DP 17:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
what i think about these 1,2450 boys is that they want 1,2480 to hold; for otherwise preassure to kill 1,2450 will be explosive..

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bc is the rule of thumb in m/t.

Aha Snity 17:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
My system is better than your system. la la-la la laa la

HKG SK 17:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
If 1.2480 gives way we will see 1.2200 by Friday. Any comment???

Kaunas DP 17:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd...well tick by tick, but sentiment is clear...looking for fund managers to take money out of table for long pos...should be some fun...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phew, another go to the upside on dlr/jpy.... think whether it can break the repat. power or not.

Livingston nh 17:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
A little "moron" the ECB next week - I am pretty sure that it is preferred that Fed hike rates so the tendency will be to await the Feb employment figures on Friday - everybody and his dog is looking for payroll figures to expand - so a good jobs figure and ECB is off the hook as the market (us) will start anticipating FED move

Rye, NY et 17:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/CAD 1.3375;cut 1.3425;take 1.3275

nyc jk 17:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
good trading cal, you were right on with that 1.2590 level

Quito Valdez 17:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I'm new to this forum but I CAN say that all this badmouthing and snit proves a point. Each of us has our own methods. If we win, fine, if we loose we learn. Or should. Conflicts will always occur between individual's trading systems/experiences/software. The end product is profit. He who haz $$ wins. P'haps we could end all this snit and get back to trading stuff?

chicago cal 17:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
took some profit on euro shorts the next important level is 1.2445 if this level give way then the dollar should see somewhat of a mid-term recovery

gl,gt

Miami OMIL 17:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
This is a forum to share your thoughts and plans about the fx market and sometimes when it is slow about other things (if Jay permits). I just don’t see how constructive it can be talking bad about another person. If NY bill has another opinion then let him state it with numbers and reasoning behind it not just hate talk IMHO. (/;->

Barcelona JP 17:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 17:00 GMT February 25, 2004

I've shorted at 1,8890. And I'll buy it once it finishes its retracement.

beirut jb 17:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
NYC Bill 16:46 GMT February 25, 2004
I will leave you fruitcakes alone. Leaving this room for good

Bill plz take it easy, this forum is good one coz of many different vue and experience,


no need to take it personnal, GEP is a great mate so u r

Porto PJT 17:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp, i see only 1,8700 and 1,8685 as a possible go on gbp before bouncing, hope works.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
only short USD when the panic sell off in eur seen. at least 100 pips in one taek.

Dallas GEP 17:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys for the support. For all I know NYC Bill may be the best at what he does, I don't really know to be honest.

I am unauthordox, there's no doubt about that and that rubs some traditionalists the wrong way and that's fine. Ultimately what I care about is that WE collectively make money and WTH; try to have some fun doing it.

prauge viktor 17:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
on the 8.09.2003 Gep told me to go long with the euro ehrn it was about 1,09 and the target he said it was 1,20 and was from the few traders who call at that time thanks gep.

GA TJ 17:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think the time is rapidly approaching for Cable to make me like really good for not joining the shorts while waiting for a pullback to enter long or GEP will gladly pass the DA of the Day trophy to me for not entering the short side. Still thinking upside for Cable and GBPJPY until proven stupid.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
the more people short dlr/jpy, the more confid, I will be able to close my dlr/jpy above 110......

beijing road 16:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
off to bed, Cu tomorrow.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bandung dewan 16:46 GMT February 25, 2004
now, i've bought gbp 8755 for 8790. sl:8745
593 for pingu!

593.5 for mine this morning.

Livingston nh 16:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ECB has probably been discussing rate cuts at every meeting since Summer - if EUR is under 124 next week all you will get from ECB is jawboning - look at it from ECB perspective and compare 1.24 to 1.19 - this isn't bad and problems in Eurozone are not all currency related

Barcelona JP 16:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
OK, boys.

Global-View is the best forex site in town: the best!!!

I enjoy every post: I learn a lot. I've been trading stocks for a while now (5 years).
I'm trading FOREX since last October.

I have my system (s) to trade.

I don't trade for a living, but for a "better" living.

I say all this because I think we should be polite with each other.
About GEP, with some of his calls I made money. The ones that were approved by my system.

Today, when he made a call to short cad @ 1,3315, I said to him that he was wrong. My system did not allow me to short cad @ 1,3315. And I did not do it.

A couple of day ago, he made a call to buy CAD. It was a great trade.

GEP is a good trader.

Rye, NY et 16:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/JPY 108.90;cut 109.50;take107.90

Quito Valdez 16:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
all this snit...reminds me of bottle throwing in the DewDrop Inn back in Kentucky.

OK SZ 16:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Bill, the only fruitcake is you...your a low life with no brain

beirut jb 16:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP and Bill interesting conversation,

well the art is to find the equilibrum between MM and giving enough room to trade to developp

unfortunately this equilibrum is different from trader to trader as it is related to ( trader method + trader phsyco + trader capital + trader style)

I Lost a lot of money puting ight stop and a lot of money trading with wider stop but also withsize my acc couldnt afford

etc...

I m surviving so far nad hope will find my equilibrum to make consistent profit and breakout from my raning patern lol

Pgh wjs 16:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I never post, very rarely but I read everyday but I just had to here.

To GEP, I appreciate you more than you know and even if your methods seem unorthodox to anyone here, I respect you for one thing I have seen over and over. The way you treat most of your fellow traders--with respect and the helpfulness and tolerance you have for the MOST inexperienced and newbie trader who even asks the dumbest questions. It is a lot more than I can say for some of the egotistical others on this board.

There is no need to criticize or attack personally here.. Bill if you have nothing good to say or nothing that pertains to forex trading, then put a sock in it.

Thanks GEP for all you do for this forum, and for Qindex, Raden, OMIL, hkab and many others who just do it day in and day out so skillfully. I do hope I can achieve that kind of professionalism someday.

London 16:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Market News story citing ECB sources as saying rate cut to be discussed at 4 March policy mtg rings true, says Lehman Brothers. "Given the accuracy of past leaks on Market News this story should be regarded as an authoritative account," says chief European economist Michael Hume. "We judge this story as both authoritative and consistent with our view that the 4 March meeting is almost too close to call. Our call remains that the ECB will follow-through with a 25bp rate cut next week. Alternatively it will signal an easing bias." EUR getting slammed on the report
reuters

Nottingham Daniel 16:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP -

For sure you have more respect then Bill - you have mine - I for would not wish to put my money in Bill's hands -

Chicago Irish 16:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
To each his own.Good trades to all.BBFN.

Dallas GEP 16:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Another completely INCORRECT assumption on your part Bill.

On the currency side, it is debatable whether or not we can break thru figure here on Euro currently. Looks heavy though in my view.

Watch POUND could be setting up for 1.8700 print.

SA getFX 16:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well said Viktor! Bill and Chicago - hedging is not necessarily bad, is it? With your experience, surely these techniques will be familiar? GEP trades his way out, I believe.

HK Kevin 16:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 16:29 GMT, would you see USD/JPY testing 107 level again to create a launch pad for 111.20?

Ldn 16:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GOLD: April Drops 3% On US Dollar, ECB Talk

Porto PJT 16:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, any level you see gbp bouncing, been a bad day......gt.

bandung dewan 16:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
now, i've bought gbp 8755 for 8790. sl:8745
593 for pingu!

NYC Bill 16:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I will leave you fruitcakes alone. Leaving this room for good.

Bris TW 16:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hey Bill..your a bit of a wanker m8

prauge viktor 16:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think gep is a very good person and helping every one and with the euro he is very very good

Oakland Daimyo 16:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 16:32-- No disrespect to anyone, but who started this?????? NYC Bill if you have suggestions we would love to hear them. BTW, do not assume that because I haven't posted everday over the years that I do not have experience. BTW, Yes I still consider myself a rookie because there is always something to learn. GT to you and your buddy Bill.

NYC Bill 16:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, you win. I guess I should go down to the village, and have coffee with your boyfriend, and discuss how life is in fantasyland.

Miami OMIL 16:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 16:32 GMT February 25, 2004
It may be true from a professional point of view that GEP does not go by the book as far as trading and bill may be very respected but it is impolite or even unprofessional to talk bad about another person his comments are way out of line IMHO.

Islander I am not out of the woods yet my friend so we will see. (/;->

bandung dewan 16:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i have liquid myb sell for 100pip
btw, 522.14 for pingu!

bandung dallas 16:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i have liquid myb sell for 100pip
btw, 522.14 for pingu!

GER ad 16:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
S/L moved at cost +1 pip (Beer money-cheers!)

Chicago Irish 16:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Par:Nissan have been threatening to move out of the U.K.for the last 3 years.......surprised that they haven't done it yet.

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
No you are right about that NY Bill. I wouldn't be able to tolerate 3% or LESS yearly returns!!!! I haven't SEEN ONE even ONE trade rec. you have made. Those that can DO and those that CAN'T Criticize. There is such a fine line between success and failure and you have to be willing to walk that fine line to be successful without backing off. My thought is you back off EVERY time. You have no heart for this. Perhaps a different occupation is in your future!!! LOL

Ldn 16:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
German banks dumping EUR/USD ahead of Schroeder visit to US, says dealer in Chicago. Hedge funds who missed unwinding of long EUR/USD positions last Fri also selling

Livingston nh 16:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - EUR/GBP - GBP can accelerate to the downside here as EUR slows so we may not see a 65 fig on this next downmove but there is nothing on the daily or hourly charts that resembles support

PAR 16:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Rumors Renault- Nissan looking at relocating UK plants due to sterling strength.

Spotforex NY 16:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
risk/reward is what it is all about.....

st. pete islander 16:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmm. Or maybe TOO MUCH of his kind.

BTW, OMIL, hats off to you. Nice Euro calls.

Chicago Irish 16:32 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo:You are a rookie and new to this forum.NYC Bill manages a lot of money,real money,9 figures (or is it 10 now Bill?),and is one of the most respected names around and has been around long enough to know what's what.For the record I totally agree with his comments.

Barcelona JP 16:32 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well, here we are @ 1,8751 as I said 45' ago.

Next stop 1,8694 (?)

Lets see what cable does here now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Miami OMIL 16:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
No need to waist your time Daimyo GEP is used to this trash talking. I just don’t pay attention to it at all.

Islander I believe he did not take his medicine again lol. (/;->

juchipila max 16:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
What a week, wish ranges were allways like this

Ldn 16:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Next Big SEC Job Is To Get Ahead Of Curve DJ

LondonJoe 16:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
USDYEN : needs to overcome 109.40 to then target 111.20 with 108.00 being the new line in the sand

Dallas GEP 16:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
There is a KNOCKOUT option @ 1.2450 Probably will bounce up from this level. 1.2490 there is SOMETHING there but I don't know WTH it is. Must be a FIB. Should Break

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ultimate eur/gbp bottom is .65 jimvho.

I will buy anything there.

st. pete islander 16:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, two days in a row! Do you suppose that 'ole Bill is having another bad day at the office?

GER ad 16:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD at 1.2496 S/L under 1.2450 T/P 1.2560+

Oakland Daimyo 16:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
NYC Bill---You do not know what you are talking about. I've seen GEP carry positions 200 pips against him and come back from that within days. I've seen this on more than one occasion. Why don't you just say that you don't have the brass balls for this. BTW, GEP does run money, chump.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
It's jsut a monkey week.

Miami OMIL 16:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Is this Gepster’s bashing week? I am going to have to check my calendar to confirm lol. (/;->

Barcelona JP 16:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Back at work.

My short @ 1,8890 was great!!!!!

Livingston nh 16:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable is the only one in the CAD, CHF, EUR and AUD parade not to break 21 da sma - EUR is right at 55 da EMA while USD/CHF and USD/CAD have broken 55 EMA / AUD should hit 55 da EMA and Cable will likely accelerate down on a break of 21 da sma(1.8635 area)

Oakland Daimyo 16:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
1.2492 Fractal decision will be made soon. It appears there is defense at this level but I think this is only temporary. We've been doing this dance all night. There are more stops to run below. The raid is on. If 1.2492 does not hold look for more EUR/USD bull pain. Tgt 1.2450 then 1.2330
Still selling upticks (failure) when seen. Not afraid to pull the trigger if we get failure before any significant uptick. Go Raiders.

London DD 16:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
waaa waaa I should have kept that £200 for the wife I don't have. I lost it all!!! Oh well... Does anyone here remember me London Debtor?

Vilnius Phoenix 16:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Finally, where serious support on Euro is ?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur is very vulunerable especially to those longs from 1.25 line....
This run, no more CBs buying to protect options.

nyc jk 16:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab - if AUD is back at .78+, you can bet on it, otherwise people will have shorted at .7815 and be taking profits lol

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ML// My 0.66 can be removed soon.
and I will post up new handle.

HK Kevin 16:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab. trade in strong belief and stop until the market proof you are wrong. USD/JPY many have seen this week's high. I can't rude out the possibility of an marginal high, but it have to test the 20 daily ma again.
For EUR bravers, 1.2455 may provide a rebound for 1.2610 again. Not interested to sell at current level.

NYC Bill 16:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, no questions, but I do have a comment. You will never be a professional money manager. Never. Your risk management techniques would be laughed at by any financial institution. I think you are full of crapp. Have a nice day.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
will we hear people tomorrow saying that they longed aussie .7710?

ICT ML 16:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp has finally found the bottom of my hourly channel at .6650, if it doesn't stop here. look out below , because I think the next stop is .6300 area, but need to check that.....

went short gbp juat a few minutes ago...got an hourly sell sig at 23:00EST that I was sleeping and missed completely......so hope to see a few pips off this, targets are 1.8740-00 areas right now

Pecs Andras 16:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:16 GMT February 25, 2004
I am already in from 6907

Miami OMIL 16:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP I keep saying this eur/usd move is not strong enough and physiologically I am thinking 1.2450 is history and my 1.2350 will be printed soon lol. (/;->

Atlanta. MM 16:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone see the selling funds back in like on Friday buying back dollars ?? wonder if BC is around

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
now the last train is nzd, who is brave enough to drive this? The last one usually is the most vigorous.

Dallas GEP 16:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Stop is @ 1.2534

Quito Valdez 16:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Jay// I was told to go thru U 4 email requests etc. so Jay, please email me (per the address I gave yesterday) so I can not break protocol again yet get email for my questions. Thanx. BTW, the board participants who responded speak highly of you!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
History repeats and this will be the 3rd wave according to those elliot.....

beijing road 16:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
we willl see 1.2450 on eur tonite?

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GETFX, I see very little in the way of 1.2450 I WAS square and I am short again

Dallas GEP 16:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
1.2514 short on EURo

Quito Valdez 16:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Jay// I got comment for my ??s about trading platforms from several board participants. I was informed that it's not cool to put one's e-mail address on the board. I didn't know, I appologise 4 my ignorance, never intentionally meaning to go against protocols. I'm a newbie, 4give me please.

SA getFX 16:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP > I finally B/E on Monday & Tues Euro shorts (The problems!). Do I gather you're also square or in profit on yours?

beijing road 16:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
This kind of mkt can make both shorter and longer laugh.........

London 16:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
UK Sales of Aussie dollar pushing it lower

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hoy !
gbp/usd at 1.8798 maybe move up from here to finishing at 1.8966

Oakland Daimyo 16:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Selling pressure is now > Buying pressure
Look for lower prices.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, I am now just afraid the dlr/jpy hurt my gbp/jpy short.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, I am now just afraid the dlr/jpy hurt my gbp/jpy short.

Miami OMIL 16:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Road good thing you held up on your order good call. I still don’t think that this eur/usd move is very strong yet IMO.
Qindex proof’s how good he is day in and day out JPB. Good call Qindex.

Daimyo that is correct I am holding on to my shirt I mean short's until the fat lady sings and I can even hear the music yet lol. You are right position players have to have patience above all, once you set your plan to work you have to see it to the finish. (/;->

Ldn 15:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Gloom grows over European growth
Europe's nascent economic recovery has been dealt a blow by reports that show confidence waning in Germany and Italy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3516113.stm

PAR 15:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
The more the ECB denies rumors of a rate cut next week the higher the probability they will cut. Remember Trichet is French and France has a long history of currency devaluations.

London 15:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Merrill Lynch. Short-end interest rate futures continue to price in about a 26% chance of a FED 25 BP hike in June

HK Kevin 15:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think many traders like me miss this EUR downmove by looking at the price movement in late Jan and wait for selling at 1.2745.

Oakland Daimyo 15:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL-- be patient there's a good probability that you will see this level break. You are a position player, so I would not cover shorts as I do not yet see buy signals. GT to all.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Greensy call for cut expense = rate hike calling?

beirut jb 15:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
sold $/cad and $/jpy here

added long eur at 12540

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham//My view on aud/nzd is that it will not go anywhere under 1.1 and I Will start to shoot this aud/nzd like the penguin if it trades near 1.11.

Ldn 15:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - COMEX gold fell Wednesday morning, dragging volatile silver off its highs, after German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called for lower euro zone interest rates.
In a television interview, Schroeder bluntly asked the European Central Bank to "intensively" consider rate cuts to counter the strength of the euro, which he said was causing problems for German exporters

HK Kevin 15:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hi hk ab and nt. Watch EUR/JPY, a break under 135.50 will put more pressure on EUR. Re: USD/JPY, I will only long if it retraces back to 20 daily arounf 106.50

beijing road 15:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
today is usd long world. haha,good trade to you usd buyer.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ok, nt 204.64

hong kong nt 15:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- go to bed now. good trades...

vancouver jpb 15:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Qindex is unreal - I bought into a sell @ 1.2701 and got out at 1.2544.

I was unsure about Qindex, but hey - the proof is in the pudding.

Miami OMIL 15:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Take it while you can GEP I still don’t see this eur/usd short strong enough to break 1.2490-1.2500 at this time but what do I know about it lol. (/;->

hong kong nt 15:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- not late to join if you aim for 200...

Nottingham 15:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:41

some good kiwi flows but in larger part due to shift in rate expectations for aud...no change now seen more likely...if played out as such could see pair test lows as 50% retracement has capped pair to date on a closing basis...gl gt

Oakland Daimyo 15:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Good work GEP, as I have been saying,
selling pressure > buying pressure They don't want to listen. NP I've booked profits twice from 1.2630 and 1.2625 +80 +75 Looking to try again on the 1.2520 break, if this happens, next tgt becomes 1.2450

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// know what, I want to know the truth on aud/jpy
we have syd VS ldn?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nt, the chf is good enough for me.

hong kong nt 15:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab -- what a pity to miss dlr/cad!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
could anyone tell me why aud/nzd plunge? anything special?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nt, I want to add gbp/jpy short now, is it too late?

Dallas GEP 15:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Closed last Eur short lots (1.2592 traded) at 1.2553 for +39 PIPS. NYC Bill, ANY QUESTIONS???? LOL

Euro Boy 001 15:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Lets wait for some Good action on E/J ..


Euro Zorro seems now little bit tough for Euro to go UP..but March waiting a last bounch on Euro b4 the final reverse Down..

Personal opinion always..;)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Kevin,
I am holding.

1.2705, 1.2645, 1.2630 and 1.2570 shorts.

dlr/cad.... didn't enter yet. had too many positions in other pairs, now regret.

nzd options.

chf long 1.2205, 1.2268, 1.2500, 1.2400

dlr/jpy long 107.05, 108.05.

aud .7751 short (not good)

planning for the strategy on eur/gbp, seems big move is coming.

Kaunas DP 15:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 15:33 GMT
new opportunity in this market comes every 10 min...no reason to regret...LOL
GL

London 15:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Euro selling accelerates on hints of ECB Rate Cut

chicago cal 15:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
london hc:

i don't usually pay much attention to news, however i do know that eur/usd support broke about a half hour ago hence, triggering sell orders

Nottingham 15:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Euro...expect some panic selling if it trades below 2520...this more likely to happen if we don't fill gap up to 2575/80
Cad...resistance at 1.3420/40...if taken will prob see panic buying as last friday which should be faded once my 1st o/b is seen (1.3525) 2nd o/b is at 1.36...gl gt

hong kong nt 15:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- yummy dessert and waiting for main course in due course, february 25th, a day to be treasured and a day to be memorised...

OK SZ 15:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
will have to look back but think qindex nailed this euro again

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Today is just a day for memory//nt.

HK Kevin 15:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, your 4 sell EUR positions now at good profits. I only long some USD/CAD at 1.3272 and short EUR/JPY at 137.48 this morning

prauge viktor 15:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JB thanks it was a good call on the cable.

Miami OMIL 15:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
There goes my weak theory on eur/usd it just took over 1.2545-50 area. I am hoping DP I have been sweating my eur/usd short. (/;->

London HC 15:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Is there any news out? euro is getting trashed out of its crosses.

beirut jb 15:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ has 30 minutes to close above 12608 , otherwise hourly will reverse to short,downside support 12550 and 12512

in ranging mode scenario, eur/$ should hold above 12512, and pop again

break of 12512 open door to 124.5 test

Kaunas DP 15:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 15:25 GMT
here it comes...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// so great!

I jsut came back from dinner.

Atlanta. 15:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: ECB Sees Potential Room To Cut- Market News

chicago cal 15:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i want 1.2450 on euro short

SA getFX 15:27 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Will this help targetting? :)
24 Feb
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.2715 1.8940 H
1.2523 1.8625 L
1.2685 1.8912 C
1.2555 1.8678 O
192 315 Range

25 Feb Pivots
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.2951 1.9341 R5
1.2833 1.9141 R4
1.2796 1.9084 R3
1.2759 1.9026 R2
1.2700 1.8926 R1
1.2641 1.8826 P
1.2604 1.8769 S1
1.2567 1.8711 S2
1.2508 1.8611 S3
1.2449 1.8511 S4
1.2375 1.8396 S5

Ldn 15:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Fed Doesn't Intervene In Money Market During Usual Period DJ

Miami OMIL 15:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
FWIW eur/usd is dancing around 1.2575-80 (50%) retracement next is 1.2545-50 but this move is not strong yet IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

GA TJ 15:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable stop got hit. Made 172 pips. Decided to go aheead and close GBPJPY. 231 pips. Both Trades were opened last Sunday. Not sure about a retrace. Am still looking to play it from the Long Side somewhere down below. Flat all others

OK SZ 15:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ok now what is the target for the euro shorts? 12550 or below

Chambery FR JFB 15:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 15:19 GMT February 25, 2004
Great call JP :-) Have fun...

Barcelona JP 15:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

London 15:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Talk of a Medley report being put out later today in NY which calls for higher US interest rates in the US

Toronto Bogdan 15:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Any inter-bank data you can see guys?...Anyone?...

Barcelona JP 15:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ok.

I've shorted cable at 1,8890. A very risky day, today.
If things go as I think, cable would retrace to 1,8823 or 1,8751 or 1,8696. We'll see.
I must go out now. Be back in 45'. Take care of my short, please.

Ldn 15:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR down on US Investment Bank Sales

HK Kevin 15:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR will be under sellling pressure if trades under 1.2580.

bandung dewan 15:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
Yesterday high is Hilda's number! Nice call....

Gen dk 15:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

chicago cal 15:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nervous time for euro fans; it's right at my critical "line" i drew earlier

beirut jb 15:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SG Jay 15:04 GMT

1 million $ question lol
but still favorise long here

Gen dk 15:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona JP 15:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Shorted at 1,8890

Chicago YM 15:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan warns about budget deficits; existing home sales down 5.2% in January. Details coming.

Global-View 15:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GVI 15:02 GMT February 25, 2004
Greenspan testimony: LINK

SG Jay 15:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
which direction is euro/usd heading ?

Chambery FR JFB 15:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:58 GMT February 25, 2004
Thank you :-)

Lldn 15:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
German Chancellor Schroeder said that the ECB should
'intensively' consider rate cuts due to euro strength, while German Industry
Head Rogowski is calling for a 50 basis points move (to 1.50%).

bucharest dc 14:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
raden, did you receive my email?

Dallas GEP 14:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JFB, same parameters. MACD tho is not really a leading indicator anyway but more of a trending indicator.

Nottingham 14:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...failure to hold onto 3348 may spark buying...further resistance at 3368 stands in the way of 3400 handle...whilst 3348 holds still chance of downside today...gl gt

Dallas GEP 14:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
yeah I just now noticed that cross on USD/CAD. Based on that I should have shorted from 1.3350

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd when at 1.8885.
sorry..I was off after meeting.
please buy gbp/usd now !! price is on the ideal swing low to get 1.8930 sson.
still focuse on buy.

Chambery FR JFB 14:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP, if I can ask : what are the parameters of your MACD on 5' please? Mine are 12/26/9 but find it pretty late to react... TIA as always :-)

Barcelona JP 14:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP

Take care of your short in USD/CAD.

10' chart: DPO above 0. RSI above 50 with a bearish divergence. -dmi and +dmi have not crossed down.

beirut jb 14:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Viees, GEP

well it could pullback 12660 but major test 127 area,


GL GT

Dallas GEP 14:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JB, Nice little call on Eur/USD long just now. Watch 1.2660 level may bounce back down from there.

nyc jk 14:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks cal, I have bought some EUR this am as well, will keep an eye on that 1.27+ area, cheers

Ldn Mvs 14:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ex-Fed Governor Meyer on CNBC says Fed unlikely to raise rates until 2005

chicago cal 14:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i think the 1.2705-15 area is key i will buy more euro's on a break upwards for 1.2755 and potentially 1.2850 area

gl,gt

Dallas GEP 14:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
sHORTED usd/cad @ 1.3315

Tln viies 14:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb 14:20 GMT - I share your view

Gen dk 14:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

beirut jb 14:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
sell stop $/yen 108.4

my 14:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I did not know that Mr. Greenspan was called Mr. Bubble. Thanks. Do you know why?

Manchester Joe 14:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GBP crosses, good view, one can see right across to the Isle of Mann

beirut jb 14:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
buy eur/$ here 12610~12620 , stop 12540
target 1 107, t2 107.5, t3 108.30

Genoa nic 14:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JP, you welcome

nyc jk 14:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
cal assuming this EUR support area holds, where do you see upside potential as ?

chicago cal 14:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i prefer to throw my chips in first, then see how the market develops

Va Raven 14:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Any view on GBP crosses?

london cam 14:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 14:09 GMT February 25, 2004
JP I believe Mr. Bubble due to enlighten us with non ambiguous wind at 15:00GMT

Barcelona JP 14:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Genoa nic

Thank you!!

chicago cal 14:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i longed eur/usd with an SAR below 1.2590

gl,gt

Genoa nic 14:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
JP, 15 GMT

Barcelona JP 14:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
my 14:05 GMT February 25, 2004
Who is Mr. Bubble? I thought that Greenspan was speaking today. Is Bubble a regional Fed guy?

Mr. Bubble is Mr. Greenspan

What time does he speak?

london cam 14:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
my 14:05 GMT February 25, 2004
Mr. Bubble is Greenspan

beijing road 14:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
p : yeah. I have to wait for hours to see how the mkt is going to develop at this key support line before taking any position.

EU ZORRO 14:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   

ln 14:03.....we have to see 1,30 or 1,23 break to say:

...dollar peak in place....LOLOLOL

Oakland Daimyo 14:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Next strong support 1.2515

my 14:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Who is Mr. Bubble? I thought that Greenspan was speaking today. Is Bubble a regional Fed guy?

Oakland Daimyo 14:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Selling Pressure for EUR/USD is still strong and getting stronger. I would not recommend going long at this point.

london p 14:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
we are now on bejing roads hourly trend line so should be make or break time euro

ln 14:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know what the big boys are saying about the dollar and whether we have seen the peak?

Barcelona JP 14:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
What time does Mr. Bubble speak?

Genoa nic 14:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, did'nt see your 13.58

beijing road 14:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Cancelled my eur order and waiting for Greenspan's speech.

Genoa nic 13:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Good afternoon all
Geneva,
if you mistyped, German prel. CPI was out 10 min ago +.02% mom, 0.9% yoy as expected, down from 1.2% yoy in January. Someone will say ECB has room for a rate cut to curb Euro strength besides market intervention, FWIW

prauge viktor 13:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks Joe

GENEVA FHR 13:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
PPI is Producer Price Index.this Index was delayed from last week and according to some reports was due for today.Apparently was delayed again.

Chicago Irish 13:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London Joe Agree with your view and think China on BOJ's side this time around

Tallinn viies 13:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
after those horrible confidence numbers from US it seems little bit strange to me that euro has been offered all day.
I think 1,2580-1,2610 could be strong support area. 61,8% retr up near 1,2740 is primary target for euro bulls
imho

LondonJoe 13:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
prague I expect Japan Inc. to be there until the end of q1 in some form or another propping up the ccy come april fools day i expect them to walk away for a while anyway... the bojs viagra of late has lead to some technical black box models buy signals being triggered and this impetus is what i believe could have a small 3-4pct rally in usdyen before we head back to the 105-107 region in q2

Portugal Portuguese 13:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:31 // in portuguese yen is "iene"....Good luck boa sorte amigo...

chicago cal 13:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
euro may find decent support between here and 1.2600 however, a break below 1.2590 will signal a decline to 1.2450

gl,gt

SA getFX 13:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Geneva > Interested - whose PPI? (I am aparently misinformed. Have API inventories at 14:30 GMT listed) Tx.

Gold Coast martin 13:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
the market is behaving irrational at the moment...best thing to do is not to trade tonight...g/l g/t

Euroland 000 13:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I really need to know if usd/jpy has chances for an other intervention? does anyone knows? is there someone who thinks 108.80 will be seen? thank you for your help

GENEVA FHR 13:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
It seems it has been delayed again.

Livingston nh 13:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Geneva - where is news on PPI?

SLC TJ 13:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:22 good advice viies!

GENEVA FHR 13:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
PPI at 14.30

prauge viktor 13:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I have 1Q till when the BOJ can sell the YEN it must be an end or do you think its un limited..thanks.

Tallinn viies 13:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD - dont spend it here...
buy something beatiful to your wife

ICT ML 13:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
you guys keep the gbp down here awhile for me so I can get a good entry when I get back :->

Gbp/Jpy is dancing to Lenny Kravitz "Fly Away" song .......

London DD 13:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 13:10 GMT February 25, 2004
Doing that :-)

ln 13:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD. Do a search on fiat money on google. As for the economy that is a whole different ball game.

LondonJoe 13:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ny thanks for your advice

ny2 13:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
"nationalilistic and fortress mentaility" sounds a bit like the US after Sept 11.

London DD 13:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 13:04 GMT February 25, 2004
True, the whole economy is hung on confidence and trust. I wonder how stable the economy really is ...

ny 13:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 13:00 GMT: Suggest that you read a few history books. I have been trading since 1994 and was there when G7 worked against the market. You can't say $/yen should not be below 100 by looking at 2004 you have to look at the history of finance and how we got here. Pull up a longer-term chart and you will see that from $300-plus during 1970's to mid-1990s there was a trend which was broken by G7 intervention.

ln 13:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD. A piece of paper that says $100 is for some reason worth more than another piece of paper worth $10. All value is relative but what it has in common is that it is a medium of exchange. As long as two people agree that something has value then it will become a tradable commodity. My kid has a bunch of pokemon cards that are think are worthless but for some reason a few of them are worth $20-25.

ıst sez. 13:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden mas,
.
still beleive(think) eur and gbp up ,frd?
or revised your mind...

Oakland Daimyo 13:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
FYI: EUR/USD selling pressure has now overtaken buying pressure.

LondonJoe 13:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
NY - I didnt suggest that I had confidence in Japans ZIRP, and am calling it as I see it in 2004 not in 1995- however what other options does the Land of the Rising Sun have open to them. If you have lived in Japan you can fathom their nationalilistic and fortress mentaility that has existed for centuries and will not go away in a hurry.. they are simply protecting their fortress yet again with the only option left to them...

London DD 12:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Regarding interest rates, GOLD has pretty much no interest (right?). What exactly is the value of gold - all it is is a lump of metal. Is its value just sentimental/imaginary???

ln 12:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 12:32 GMT. Are you suggesting that the US can get markets to move away from fair value by simply talking. This is a new one...better write those history books again.

ln 12:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD. Keep your £200 and save this for a high conviction trade.

ny 12:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 12:32 GMT. You don't seriously believe what you have written. For a start the ZIRP/growth that you have so much confidence over why not look at the BIS paper last year to see how bad this relationship is. As for $/yen...does yen 27tn say something about overvalued or undervalued? Since the bubble bursting Japan has been intervening and the fact is that the sub-100 print that we saw in 1995 would have stuck had it not been for US (yes the U.S.A.) intervention via Rubin. We would not be above 100 had it not been for Rubin wanting to help the Fed out with a stronger currency. Since then Japan has been keeping $/yen above 100 through constant intervention.

hong kong nt 12:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- what's your profit obj for dlr/yen?

PAR 12:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Declining dollar is undermining US consumer confidence.Too Low US interest are undermining US consumer confidence. Stock buy backs instead of productive investments and job creation are undermining US consumer confidence. Greenspan should look to the UK, a country with the same structural deficits as the US but with correct solutions i.e. HIGHER INTEREST rates.

London DD 12:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 12:41 GMT February 25, 2004
Theses guys won't make much of a market out of me. I only have just over £200 left in my account!

ln 12:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD. The only reason these guys are patting you on the back is that they need people like you to make a market. These guys would sell their own grandmothers. My advise is to watch the market and learn before jumping in. Know your market and that will help you make money.

Rate differentiuals are important in working out whether you want to trade cash or via forwards.

OK SZ 12:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe, excellent post

London DD 12:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the info everyone ;-)

GVI john 12:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2640…$/yen 108.70
DJIA 0 pts… 10-yr 4.01%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI...

LondonJoe 12:32 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
in my opinion there is no fundamental reason for usdyen to be sub 100.00 apart from the political beggar thy neighbour policies of the Bush administration to make asia (japan being part of) to accept a stronger ccy and assist in the us recovery and twin deficit problem... Japan on the other hand can ill afford usdyen down there.. under 100 kiss goodnight to the Nikkei and to the japanese economy for another 5 years. The BOJ/MOF stance of continued intervention in massive amounts on a daily basis looks to have stemmed the tide and I think into FYE (march) we could see usdyen back to 110.50-112.00 region but will be met by guijen sellers (wester accounts).. japan have no other policy option left to them with their ZIRP in place for so many years now .. and for the first time some of the manufacturing numbers and production figures are showing a breath of fresh air in japan and Japan Inc cannot walk away from their intervention policy in a hurry..

shanghai bc 12:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   

Exact Japanese pronunciation must be "En" not "Yen"..Why it is written as Yen is unclear..Must be those Portuguese traders again who misheard what Japanese said about "En"..Portuguese were the first western traders in Japan some 400 years ago..

Chambery FR JFB 12:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD 12:10 GMT February 25, 2004

Just my two-cents... DD, you have to pay attention to who is making the comments, as not all contributors have the same timeframe in mind... Some are short term, thus affecting your very next move (entry/exit/pat), others are mid/long term... Obviously, those saying the Yen is worth 100 or less are not in the first category :-) Happy trades...

shanghai bc 12:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   

Yuan,Won and Yen all comes from Chinese word,Yuan,a round coin with a hole in the centre, during Tang dynasty China some 1,500 years ago..Still written in the same way in China,Korea and Japan..Yuan block in fact..

Belgrade Knez 12:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   

London DD 12:10 GMT February 25, 2004

Tehnical analysis are only way you should trade, as fundamentals are fitting in to it. But there are some things that you should simply know.
Do not give up if you believe in yourself, and if you love this business. I have lost large amount of money at the begining of trading, now comming back already.

GL & GT

Nottingham 12:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp supports for poss retracement...6652...6643...unlikely that any lower seen today but fwiw 6625...and o/s at 6588 (1st ) 6575 (2nd)

London DD 12:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe 12:18 GMT February 25, 2004
What is the reason for USD/JPY to go below 100 if JPY is so worthless?

London DD 12:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Oh well I got stopped out of USD/JPY and USD/CHF now Im reentering short USD/JPY.

LondonJoe 12:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
and thats why their currency is called the YEN.. you earn nothing !

sarasota jf 12:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab .6650 enuff for today eurgbp n retracement- how do you feel for it ?

Melbourne Qindex 12:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The meaning of my equation :-

A quantised level is positioning at 1.2711 which is expected a resistant point. Speculative selling will increase if the market can penetrate through 1.2646. The market may take a rest at the mid-point reference of 1.2451* - 1.2711*, i.e. 1.2581. The next 2 targets are 1.2451 and 1.2516 if 1.2481 fails to hold.


Melbourne Qindex 00:35 GMT February 25, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Reference


... // 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

LondonJoe 12:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
The overnight cash rate in japan know as the MUTAN is .0001 of a basis point ...... zero ... in fact.....thats why Dire Straits loves japan... money for nothing.. chicks for ..

Khobar Mohd. 12:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I'm sinking EUR/US :(

sarasota jf 12:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD 12:10 GMT February 25, 2004
if you can admit your mistakes and learn from them thats half the battle - keep learning gl

London DD 12:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 12:05 GMT February 25, 2004
I am in the wrong business since I've wiped out my account more than 10 times! Are you saying that technical analysis is useless?

london p 12:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hmmm i didnt know that either i guess i better pack my bags

ln 12:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London DD 11:57 GMT. I think you are in the wrong business if you do not know this.

casablanca kouki 12:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I THINK ABOUT 0.15 %

Belgrade Knez 12:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   

London DD 11:57 GMT February 25, 2004

0.15%

London DD 11:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hello, does anyone know the interest rate in Japan? TIA

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 11:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
cb jc 11:45
15.00gmt

beijing road 11:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Or plan to take buy signal of eur/usd only after Greespan's speech.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
my suggest is buy eur/usd now at 1.2635

beijing road 11:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD 1h trendline support is at 1.2600-10 level, 100h SMA 1.2620 level. Place an order of eur long position at 1.2610 with stop at 1.2570.

cb jc 11:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
can anybody post re:GMT time Greenspan speech/talkl. TIA

Melbourne Qindex 11:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:32 GMT February 25, 2004
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2515 ... 1.2550 ... 1.2584 - 1.2602 - 1.2619 - 1.2637 - (1.2654) - 1.2671 - 1.2688 // 1.2706 ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:35 GMT February 25, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Reference


... // 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:19 GMT February 25, 2004
USD/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 107.80 // 108.05 - 108.30 - 108.55 - 108.80 // 109.05 - 109.30 ... 109.80 - 110.05 ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:52 GMT February 24, 2004
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.8651 ... 1.8744 ... 1.8836 // 1.8866 - 1.8897 ... 1.8959 - 1.8990 // 1.9020 ... 1.9082 ... 1.9174 ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:25 GMT February 24, 2004
GBP/USD : 3-Month Cycle Projection Reference


... // 1.8447* - 1.8574 - 1.8700* - 1.8827 - 1.8954* //...


Melbourne Qindex 23:21 GMT February 24, 2004
USD/CHF : The congested area of my daily cycle indicates that 1.2341 - 1.2405 is a projected supporting level and a projected resistant point is expected at 1.2597. The lower barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2228 // 1.2266 and the upper barrier is located at 1.2566 // 1.2604.


... 1.2190 - 1.2228 // 1.2266 ... 1.2341 - 1.2378 - 1.2415 ... 1.2491 - 1.2529 - 1.2566 // 1.2604 ...

Melbourne Qindex 22:25 GMT February 24, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2603 - 1.2739. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2493 // 1.2524 and the upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2829 // 1.2860. The critical point is located at 1.2707. The odds are in favour of pullling back to 1.2615.


... 1.2493 // 1.2524 ... 1.2615 ... 1.2676 - 1.2707* - 1.2738 ... 1.2799 - 1.2829 // 1.2860 ...

Melbourne Qindex 21:59 GMT February 24, 2004
AUD/USD : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.7885 // 0.7915 and the lower barrier is expected at 0.7730 // 0.7761.

... 0.7668 ... 0.7730 // 0.7761 - 0.7792 - 0.7823 - 0.7854 - 0.7885 // 0.7915 ...

AUD/USD : A projected barrier is located at 0.7813 - 0.7830.


Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 0.7648 - 0.7739 - 0.7830 - 0.7922 // ...

Oakland Daimyo 11:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
info.
eur/usd will get bottom at 1.2639 and seen gbp/usd will move up again to get 1.8966 from low 1.8920

Oakland Daimyo 11:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
1.2640 level looking vulnerable. If mkt cannot hold, look for move lower. Selling Pressure increasing but has not taken over just yet. Be careful of tight ranges.

hong kong nt 11:32 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- just manage to turn gbpjpy and eurjpy...

melbourne 11:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp is a buy here for a retrace back to the .6880 levels

Sofia Seafoam 11:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
FOREX Summary Outlook for you in english, russian... at:

http://www.chartsignals.com/foam/fxoutlook.htm

GA TJ 11:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think the prudent thing to do is move stops up on my Cable (enter 1.8672 - Stop 1.8850) and GPYJPY (Enter 202.30 - Stop 204.00). I think GBPJPY shows more potential than Cable for further gains. Not real impressed with the last 15 min bar on both. But what the heck lock in a few pips and get another cup of coffee.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I have analysis eur/gbp will wake up soon from low 0.6685.
caused by this eur/usd will up faster than gbp/usd.
gbp/usd will up slowly but 1.8966 still objective to hope.
my suggest is exit buy for gbp/usd now and be changed position for buy eur/usd to get 1.2744

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dc.
look eur/gbp chart. there is answer there.
be carefull eur/gbp will up now.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:03 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I remember my friend view.
Ina* mr.co'z 04:46 GMT February 25, 2004
helloo all !
Thoughts we have opportunity short cable @ 1.8905 tp.18860 with stop @ 1.8920. and long @ 1.8860 tp.1.8975 sl. at 1.8840. imo...gl/gt...thx !

Belgrade Knez 11:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dc 10:58 GMT February 25, 2004

gbp is not sky rocketing, it's just on the same price as 3 hours ago.

PAR 11:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable is strong because of too high interest rates, too high interest rates and too high interest rates.

Ldn Mvs 11:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp selling bucharest

bucharest dc 10:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
do you have any idea why euro is stuck in here while cable is sky rocketing?

GA TJ 10:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Now the Q for me is why isn't the Euro and Swissy following the lead of USDCAD and Cable. Something has gotta give.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ha..ha..
you get that about cable? I think enough profit.
have a nice...

GA TJ 10:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Gotta love the Her Majesty's currency. Easy pickens.

Nairobi Tn 10:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi

Whats on the plate for EURUSD? Seems to be stalling at 1.2660-70. Thinking of long

Nice call on cable. Will exit my long around ur target.

TIA

Ldn 10:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich Wednesday downplayed February's decline in U.S. consumer confidence, saying the economic outlook remains unchanged.
"It was a modest drop. There's always been volatility" in this indicator, he told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in London. "Basically, it's fluctuating, it's come back from a strong number in January."
reuts

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 10:25 GMT February 25, 2004
agree with you.
usd/cad got to 1.3221. what's mean ?
1.2740 - 1.8966 - 1.3221 are nice group numbers.

bucharest dc 10:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks

GER ad 10:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 09:45
PAR 09:50 GMT

This is only an older prognosis for 2005 net contribution in EU but the direction is clear:

Net payer:

1. Germany - 10693 mln
2. Netherland - 2049
3. Belgium-Luxemburg -1114
4. Sweden -589
5. UK -2176
6. Austria -230
7. Italy -1456
8. France -274

Net receiver:

9. Finland + 52
10. Denmark +439
11. Spain +5368
12. Portugal +2723
13. Greece +3433
14. Ireland +2256

The ranking is determined by contribution per capita


London 10:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham I dont like the guy he got it totally wrong about equieties

Ldn Mvs 10:35 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dc 10:33 GMT
It came out over 1 hr ago at 09.30GMT, as follows:

UK 4Q GDP Was Forecast Unrevised At +0.9% QQ, +2.5% YY
UK 4Q GDP revised At +0.9%QQ; +2.8% On Year

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 10:25 GMT February 25, 2004
agree with you.
usd/cad got to 1.3221. what's mean ?
1.2740 - 1.9066 - 1.3221 are nice group numbers.

bucharest dc 10:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
any idea what hour will be that revised Q4 announcement?

Ldn Mvs 10:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Broker reporting that Chairman of UK Treasury committee says govt won't speak out even if cable goes to 2.00

GA TJ 10:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I wonder if USDCAD will lead the way again?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd yes !!
confirmed 1.9014-19

Nottingham 10:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
London 10:01 GMT

think he relies on elliot wave too much...personally not sure if its workable (expect in hindsight)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:48 GMT February 25, 2004
LOL

London DD 10:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Dallas, Im going short USD/CHF instead here @ 1.2423 (20 pip stop) and might re-enter USD/JPY later (higher or until trend changes)

Dallas GEP 10:13 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Probably some stalling here. Market is looking for some direction here IMO.

sarasota jf 10:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
swiss and germans say to sell eur 1.2710 from here and theres some russian order on topside to sell as well - but the japanese all want to buy eur - they have euryen orders to fill and they say they have stop losses above the selling in eur- talk that the euryen demand is as high at 137.20 at the moment

Indonesia bahari2003 10:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:54 GMT February 25, 2004
tx 4 hsi.usually when usd become under more pressure they increase gbp/jpy and eur/jpy. IMO but i heard there's a good chance to hike another 25 bp for uk after strong revised gdp

Dallas GEP 10:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
DD, MOF support, pure and simple.

London DD 10:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Why is USD/JPY so strong when fundamentally it should be below 100?

hong kong nt 10:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
108.8 x 1.8875 = 205.36

Gen dk 10:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 10:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
CNBC Chris Locke Oystercatcher sees Euro 121 in the near future ! anyone see him

Dallas GEP 09:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
bTW, my Eur Shorts have average traded 1.2592 so that close on one batch of eur shorts @ 1.2663 is a -71 pip loss that was offset somewhat by gains on the usd/jpy long possie that was closed for profit (+32 pips).

London DD 09:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Im out of USD/JPY, will re-enter later...

hk ab 0.66 09:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
gtg now, talk later in NY.

hong kong nt 09:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
anyone may advise the high of GBPJPY?

hong kong nt 09:53 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia bahari2003 09:49 GMT -- sell mar hang seng at 13550

PAR 09:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
The more subsidies you get from the European Budget and the less you pay to the European budget could be a better explanation why Spain , UK and Ireland are doing so well.

Indonesia bahari2003 09:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:49 GMT February 25, 2004
any idea for hang seng tomorrow trade?

ln 09:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
PAR 09:42 GMT: Think it has something to do with their higher GDP growth rates.

hk ab 0.66 09:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Seems another similar wave from 105........ last one is from 106.80 to 109.50.

This one..... 3rd wave (seldom be a EW myself).

hong kong nt 09:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:31 GMT -- the train departing from Tokyo may go to Hiroshima instead of Hokkaido...

Dallas GEP 09:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
DD, that's a good idea on the tight stop.

hk ab 0.66 09:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
PAR 09:42 GMT February 25, 2004
Looks like Spain and the UK are the best performing European economies. Any reason


PAR, don't you find that the cheaper the curr, the better the economy?

China --> Jap --> US --> UK --> CAD--> EU

Dallas GEP 09:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Unloaded SOME of the Eur/USD shorts here @ 1.2663. Just in Case it DOESN'T short some more but I THINK it will.

prauge viktor 09:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep there is a lot of talking about a strong wave of selling usd durining Mr:Green speach this afternoon what u say about it,its from the cnbc Ben Beddly I think ..

sheffield G-Man 09:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LDN very slightly better than expected +2.8% yoy v 2.5% expected

PAR 09:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Spain and the UK are the best performing European economies. Any reason ?

London DD 09:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I have a tight stop @ 59 on USD/JPY and will re-enter higher if it gets triggered. Fundamentally it should go below 100 ... but when?

Ldn Hat 09:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Anybody had the data out from UK today? Thanks

Dallas GEP 09:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden, I think there will be some more offers come in on Eur/USD. USD/JPY is showing pretty BID right now IMO.

Dallas GEP 09:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
DD, please be careful on that one, USD/JPY has shown NO ability to go below 108.00 and although I am flat myself on this pair, It is BULLISH IMO.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Rome Tony.
eur/gbp
up to 0.6780

London DD 09:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Im short USD/JPY from 108.39 aiming for around 107.

Melbourne Qindex 09:32 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:32 GMT February 25, 2004
EUR/USD (adjusted) : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2515 ... 1.2550 ... 1.2584 - 1.2602 - 1.2619 - 1.2637 - (1.2654) - 1.2671 - 1.2688 // 1.2706 ...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
train was already run for eur/usd and gbp/usd.
come on !!

London DD 09:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Think thats the high for USD/JPY today. Now a big 150 pip drop . . . m a y b e

hk ab 0.66 09:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, 2nd failure on eur/gbp .67 may push a nail to gbp coffin.

hk ab 0.66 09:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
so now, I have 107.05 and 108.05

Dallas GEP 09:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Out on USD/JPY longs, with 108.13 being cheapest batch. @ 108.45.

hk ab 0.66 09:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
001=nk?

hk ab 0.66 09:27 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// my brave bank broker filled my dlr/jpy order at 108.05.....long.

Euro Boy 001 09:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
E/J

Is SOB...frome here..till 13750 max 88


Have a nice day again

Rome Tony 09:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden
What about shorting Eur/Gbp ?????

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SA get FX.
about gbp/usd.
there is magnet source at 1.8919 from low 1.8956

hong kong nt 09:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
1.890 x 108.5 = 205.0
1.894 x 108.5 = 205.5

SA getFX 09:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden > Tx for clarifying!

Nairobi Tn 09:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
PAR 08:42 GMT
Hi! So u expect cable to spike back to higfhr levels? 1.8930?
TIA

Chambery FR JFB 09:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 08:58 GMT February 25, 2004
Aren't you afraid of a move up in reaction to the (better than expected) UK Q4 GDP number? TIA

Dallas GEP 09:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
WOuld have expected a little stronger bounce up on Euro but usd/jpy is going long slowly and pound is holding steady.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
SA getFX 09:07 GMT February 25, 2004
"now" mean buy gbp/usd and buy eur/usd. start.

hong kong nt 09:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- did you buy dlr/yen last night or today?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
step minor 1.2684 (easy).

SA getFX 09:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden > "Now!" ??

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:04 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
now!

hong kong nt 09:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:52 GMT -- worry my short GBPJPY at 205.0 and 205.5 may remain unfilled today, as to hang seng, price may cool down to 11990 in next 2 months...

melbourne 08:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
gep np problem mate, the market can humble the best of us. expect some follow through after yesterday's 'unexpected' counter moves, take care

Ldn Hat 08:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB - Added to short at 1.8900 stop 1.8950 target 1.8850/20 IMHO

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:55 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ho..ho..ho..
eur/usd is on the counting down for 1.2655.
be carefull maybe price move up suddenly form there.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:52 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hongkong nt.
gbp/jpy will move up higher than 205.00
yes hangseng good sell today.

Chambery FR JFB 08:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hats off, Hat :-)

Dallas GEP 08:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hey Melbourne, congrats on that euro long call yesterday. I posted earlier but you weren't on line at the time. I was pretty wrong about that one.

Euro Boy 001 08:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Market is having another go at eur/usd 1.24 and below today..Possibly when London opens..

Will be on Sell side frome here and as close to 1.2750/88 can see..

Have a nice day..

hong kong nt 08:49 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi -- very nice fall of hang seng today...

Dallas GEP 08:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
A key level on Pound is 1.8880 and on USD/JPY 108.30.

Melbourne Qindex 08:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:25 GMT February 24, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2603 - 1.2739. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2493 // 1.2524 and the upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 1.2829 // 1.2860. The critical point is located at 1.2707. The odds are in favour of pullling back to 1.2615.


... 1.2493 // 1.2524 ... 1.2615 ... 1.2676 - 1.2707* - 1.2738 ... 1.2799 - 1.2829 // 1.2860 ...

Dallas GEP 08:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Well Viktor, Euro is range bound and USDJPY is retracing some now. I believe it to be tho a matter of time just like anything else. This 1.2660 and 1.2630 provide support so shallow bounces are expected from this level for sure for now IMO. LAst couple of hours, watching CABLE as a leading indicator, BIDS are being absorbed by offers. You could alos watch usd/jpy for clues.

melbourne 08:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf bulls can add to their possies from 1.25/26 down at 1.2330 today

PAR 08:42 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hearing UK GDP growth (4Q) will be revised sharply higher.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:40 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
be hurry !!

hong kong nt 08:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
anything above 1.89 line is a sell for rest of this week...

melbourne 08:39 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
euro bulls who missed the boat yesterday will get another chance to buy ahead of 1.2630 for 1.2760 today

prauge viktor 08:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Hello Gep: I wish u a very healthy pozition soon ,how do u see it with the euro for now been...thanks

hong kong nt 08:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY bulls, please give me a hand...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:37 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
seen gbp/usd will up to get 1.8966. not good if hope for sell now. I think sharply down will start from 1.8966. I still remember chart message about 1.8421.

also eur/usd have get bottom at 1.2665. be carefull with your sell in this area. better exit or cut switch here to get 1.2744.
I look price will move down sharply from there.

Miami OMIL 08:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP I am also nursing my short but running out of time and by the way I like lemonade too lol. (/;->

Melbourne Qindex 08:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:35 GMT February 25, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Reference


... // 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Dallas GEP 08:24 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Still with you guys. Nursing Eur/USD shorts amd USD/JPY longs. Dealt myself some lemons with euro shorts BUT lemons CAN be turned into lemonade!!! LOL!!!

Chambery FR JFB 08:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 07:28 GMT February 25, 2004
Still holding your short after it rebounds on 15' EMA55? Good call so far :-) Just curious :-) GT GL

PAR 08:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Problem with all US shares buy backs like IBM s$ 4. billion. It is good for the US stock market but it creates not a single job on the contrary.

london richard 08:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hi all
cable loks a buy

nyc 07:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
www.hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com has good stuff on it....anyone know of a good jobs site?

MONACO OGA 07:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 25/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2690), 170 pips higher than yesterday's opening. The pair consolidated inside 1,2520-1,2590 in the morning before taking 1,2600 resistance and stabilizing around 1,2680-1,2700 level. Weaker german IFO index was ignored by the market while US consumer confidence triggered the move from 1,2600 to 1,2700. The russian government (and specifically the prime minister) was dismissed by Mr PUTIN yesterday, this move had no effect on the market as analysts interpreted it as a strictly internal affair (independance of politics from business). Closing in NY was around 1,2690. Overnight the pair hovered in a tight range (1,2670-1,2708). Technically, EUR has room to retrace to 1,2760 where resistance should appear. The market is looking set to oscillate around 1,2630 (1,20-1,30 at large) for some time. Today we will favour range trading with purchases around 1,2620 for a target of 1,2760.

Data out today:

UK GDP 4Q expected 0,9% 09.30 GMT
US existing home sales Jan expected 6,27Mio 15.00 GMT

Gold around 404,00 , with WTI March at 34,52.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 108,15) still consolidating above 108 but finding it hard to gain some strenght in the wake of general USD weakness. Supports for the day at 108 then 107, resistance at 108,60 then 109,30. We are still neutral on the pair, however we like to stick to fundamentals and still believe the japanese authorities cannot keep the pair from falling below 100 in the medium term.
EUR/JPY (currently 137,30) almost hitting our 137,50 target.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8925) was the main mover yesterday rebounding from 1,8650 to 1,8900 and erasing last friday's losses. Support zone around 1,8850, while resistance now lies above 1,90 (1,9050 11 years high).
EURGBP (0,6705) stalling at 0,6700. Our medium term target is 0,6860, with caution in case 0,6680 breaks. Strategy for the day : buy 0,6700 for 0,6760 (stop 0,6680).
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Ldn Hat 07:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I am shorting GBP/USD at 1.8930 target 1.8880 stop 1.8950 IMHO

Atlanta MM 07:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi thanks for that, is anyone finding global-view slow to enter today ?

hong kong nt 07:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- hope to see some brave guys pushing GBPJPY to 205.00/50...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I still believe there is problem with gbp/usd buy now with carry more selling position.
I hope can help you with this view..

Spr NoodyG 07:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Wednesday, February 18, 2004

DoCoMo To Sell AT&T Wireless Stake To Cingular For Y680bn
TOKYO (Nikkei)--NTT DoCoMo Inc. (9437) will sell off its 16% equity interest in AT&T Wireless Services Inc. for about 680 billion yen to Cingular Wireless, which will acquire AT&T Wireless, the third-largest mobile carrier in the U.S., The Nihon Keizai Shimbun learned Tuesday.



With the sale, DoCoMo is expected to reap a capital gain of at least 400 billion yen, but its U.S. strategy has lost its foundation.

AT&T Wireless and Cingular on Tuesday reached a basic agreement under which Cingular will buy AT&T Wireless for roughly 41 billion dollars -- about 4.3 trillion yen -- in cash, or 15 dollars a share. The acquisition, slated for completion in the second half of this year, will make the combined Cingular and AT&T Wireless the largest wireless carrier in the U.S., with its 46 million customers surpassing Verizon Wireless' 37.5 million or so.

DoCoMo forged its capital alliance with AT&T Wireless with the aim of spreading its Internet access services and 3G (third-generation) mobile phone technology to the U.S. market.

Since 2001, DoCoMo had spent more than 1 trillion yen for the U.S. company -- but with the share price plunging, it was forced to write off more than 900 billion yen in losses by the end of September 2002. Even with the 400 billion yen in capital gains from the upcoming sale of AT&T Wireless shareholdings, the gains will not cover the past losses.

Vodafone Group Plc was also bidding for AT&T Wireless, and DoCoMo was to sell its shareholdings to the British firm as well in the event it acquired AT&T Wireless because Vodafone competes with DoCoMo in the Japanese market.

DoCoMo said Tuesday evening that it will do its best to reformulate its U.S. strategy.

AT&T Wireless has decided to use the W-CDMA format, which DoCoMo uses for its 3G services, in technology and other areas, and Cingular is expected to follow suit. DoCoMo officials believe there is room for the two companies to cooperate, possibly by transferring its W-CDMA expertise to Cingular and cooperating in mutually providing connection services between Japan and the U.S.

(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Wednesday morning edition)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta MM 05:23 GMT February 25, 2004
aboutb aud/usd, be carefull if meet 0.7827, maybe price move down to get 0.7761 and then move high again to get 0.7844-60 as the selling attack area.

Ldn Hat 07:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Got stopped out at my short of GBP/USD will short soon IMHO,

Melbourne Farmacia please could you also include me in your e-mail and if possible suggest if the move higher has ended? Thanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hey friends .
warning !! I look there will be "lie movement".
I curious gbp/usd 1.8697 before get 1.8966.
My reason : price have given messages about 1.8423
I say : too risky if you buy now, I am worry..suddenly price move follow this scenario.
In my forcasting I look since yesterday price move up with carry of big selling position.

hong kong nt 07:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Today's dessert -- buy USDCHF at 1.235 or USDCAD at 1.325 ...

hong kong nt 06:57 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Today's main course, sell GBPJPY at 205.0 and 205.5...

Chambery FR JFB 06:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 06:30 GMT February 25, 2004
G'dday Melbourne :-) I would be very interested in your views about GBP moves... May I ask you forward this e-mail to me as well plz? TIA

melbourne farmacia 06:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 04:48 GMT February 25, 2004
Will send email later today with chart regarding gbp's move yesterday. GT

Bahrain MTarif 06:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Some market makers expects Euro to range between 1.2750 and 1.2550. GT GL

Ldn 06:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Australian aggregate wage pressures remain benign, giving the Reserve Bank room to further ponder the need for another interest rate rise.

Australia's wage-cost index rose 1% in seasonally adjusted terms in the fourth quarter from the third, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.

From the fourth quarter of 2002, wage costs grew 3.7%, which is weak enough to keep them off the Reserve Bank's policy radar, economists say.
AP

SA Gamber 06:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden, r u there? ur views please on eur$ and gbp$? I think they r going up!

FW CS 06:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Nice ascending triangle forming on weekly Euro. If it breaks out to the upside would target 1.35-1.36. Will be confrimed on a weekly close above the 1.2930 fractal high.

Ldn 06:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ANZ: Australia Mortgage Margins Hit By Rate Hikes

Monterrey Niman10-1 06:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: short gbpusd @ 1.8895, s/l 1.8938 t/p 1.87 (for today) ... dont follow me, i just loged in for 1 mini lot, it seemed like the best r/r trade chartwise ;p

Kamensk Andy 06:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab - Good morning! Do you plan to add to your eur shorts today? Good trades..

phils vl 05:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Bris tw

yep that's me..and very generic too, it works... why shoot a bug.. er... mosquito with a LRBM.. use piranhas man...lol

Bris TW 05:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
err I mean the ball LOL

Bris TW 05:50 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Do people still use a mouse with the wheel? :->

phils vl 05:38 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Lax

done it regularly.. its not the same type of problem... clogged mouse sensors usually distorts cursor direction and movement only... I'm gonna change the mouse if this persists..

LAX-LGB SNP 05:34 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
VL maybe you should try cleaning the mouse-ball and the 3 contact points after opening it underside

phils vl 05:29 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami Omil

yep will change mouse and see if there's the waallla magic...

I think Jay wud be particularly interested in this topic... hope he will accomodate us ...

tks...

Miami OMIL 05:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phils vl 05:21 GMT February 25, 2004
I believe I am talking about the reported intrusion picked up by your firewall and like I said before it only happens at certain times of the day the rest of the day it works fine for me. (/;->

Atlanta MM 05:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
your view on aud appreciated.

Miami OMIL 05:23 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phils vl 05:16 GMT February 25, 2004

It could be your mouse or a corrupted driver for you mouse in any case try to reload the latest driver for you mouse after you have done a virus scan of your entire network. If that does not work then try another mouse. Hope that helps. (/;->

We should actually be in the help forum before Jay says something.

LAX-LGB SNP 05:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
OMIL i understand - thanks for the concern but all the imp. info is either in my head or remote sys without an IP

phils vl 05:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami Omil

noted... question is why only now..something external changed recently... I made no change here.... my fire wall accepts GV site...

LAX-LGB SNP 05:19 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phils VL
if all that you say is really happening and there're no bugs, trojans, variants, dataminers, malware, spyware, etc etc on your system then its time to format the HDD and load up the OS from scratch (rem to take backups of important data though)

Miami OMIL 05:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phils vl 05:01 GMT February 25, 2004
Anyone that does not have a firewall will not notice if there is an intrusion on your computer. The computers that are most vulnerable are the ones that are connected to the Internet at all times like the dsl lines. When my firewall catches the intrusion it will not let the site reload so I have to get out of the offending site until it stops trying to get in to my network. Like I said it only happens at certain times of the day not all day long.

SNP it is for your protection and the router may have a good firewall but if you don’t keep it up-to-date crazy things can happen to your network and your private files. You know what I mean it is better to be safe than sorry. (/;->

phils vl 05:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Jhb Redrug

tks..intended to do same but was waiting in case there's more to do than this fire-fighting way out..

LAX-LGB SNP 05:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - well the router has its own firewall but i am too lazy to install a software firewall ... the way i see it, all protection is psychological - besides if it aint broken, why fix it ? ;-)

Jhb Rekrug 05:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phils vl 05:01 GMT
I experienced exactly what you describe a few weeks back. Tried scan after scan, removed and reloaded programmes etc.
In desperation I changed the mouse - no more problems. Its worth a try.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
not yet to thinking eur/usd about 1.2745, before meet 1.2650.
I will thinking again about eur/usd at 1.2745 after meet 1.2650.
be carefull !! my machine say counting down for eur/usd.
ready?

Miami OMIL 05:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
phils vl 05:01 GMT February 25, 2004
It is an attempt to communicate with your network from this site or anything that connects to this site it is deemed an illegal communication attempt by your firewall and that is why your firewall is catching it. It could be an innocent connection or a harmful one the firewall does not take any chances. It is happening at certain times of the day and it is happening recently and everyday now. My recommendation is keep your firewall up-to-date and don’t turn it off IMHO. (/;->

phils vl 05:01 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami Omil 23.31gmt 24th Feb

I also experienced problems starting last two weeks or so.... mouse cursor running wild suddenly, active windows shutting down for no reason, files popping up by themselves, start menu coming on and off... when this site page is running...

My Norton even reported blocking an intrusion attempt once by incomplete TCP flags... Jay confirmed that its not coming from his computers..I have no reason to doubt him as he's got a good thing going here with this site and why risk it.

Ran repeated scans for bugs but cannot find any....wonder if any one else has similar problems... if you or Lax come across a recommendation/solution, wud apprecaite hearing from you guys... advance thanks

good trades

advance thanks

Porto PJT 04:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 04:56 , not doubting but based on what?

hk ab 0.66 04:59 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// u have a strong feeling?

hong kong nt 04:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
today is february 25th, US Dollar Rebound Day, a day to be treasured and a day to be memorised, cheers...

Porto PJT 04:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, congrats and thank you for sharing your views on this, sometimes very complicated to me, gbp trades.gt.

Ina* mr.co'z 04:46 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
helloo all !
Thoughts we have opportunity short cable @ 1.8905 tp.18860 with stop @ 1.8920. and long @ 1.8860 tp.1.8975 sl. at 1.8840. imo...gl/gt...thx !

Ldn 04:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
The head of the International Monetary Fund gave qualified support Wednesday for Japan's massive yen-selling intervention campaign, calling it a "pragmatic" way to fight deflation given a lack of other monetary options.

"I do think it was an appropriate policy stance," IMF Managing Director Horst Koehler told a press conference after wrapping up two days of talks with Japanese officials.

He added, however, that he believes Japanese officials see intervention as "a temporary policy," and are not trying to bolster exporters by fixing the yen's exchange rate at an unfairly low level.
reuters

DAK TK 04:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Does any1 see a bull flag in both eur and cable?
TIA

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 04:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
indonesia Bahari.
about Nikkei.
be carefull price will get 10.750

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 03:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
LA saint3 03:48 GMT February 25, 2004
friend !! I said just now about gbp/usd for Asia market till Europe opening.
I give view step by step of price movement.
I hope can help you.
you got nice profit party yesterday?
my ghost "hilda" say 1.2837 as the top yesterday as her request. LOL

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 03:51 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
euro/usd.
be carefull price give you chance to get 1.2665.
I think price now get selling pressure in Asia market.
I say "maybe".
ready ?

LA saint3 03:48 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
yo raden ..
cable moves more than 150 pips per day . ...
how come you only predict it will go to 18850?

Indonesia solo Raden_masandi 03:43 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ho..ho...ho
gbp/usd finally get top 1.8937.
be carefull there is two scenario that must be looked.
first : if price show you 1.8950-60 (small probability and too risky if you buy in this area).
second : after get 1.2937 price maybe get big pressure fromm fresh selling position to make till low of today candle.
now is ready to get 1.8850 from 1.8926

GA TJ 03:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Agreed on the Cable. Going to holdem overnight. Moved stops up a bit to lock in some profit. Calling it a night. See you guys in about 5 hours. (Sleep. Don't need no stinking sleep.)

OK SZ 03:22 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ML, agree with you was just looking at the stoch..I am flat also on both pound and euro...will see what london does..have a good evening

ICT ML 03:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
TJ, SZ....re pound...its still in an up move until proven otherwise...would think it will sidewind until the 30 min stochs have unwound a bit....BUT, I have one helll of a continuation signal as it stands.....hard part is figuring out now where the BOD becomes a SOS........haven't done that yet...was 1.8700, then 1.8740...need to raise it but not sure where yet. I closed out this afternoon, and will reenter when London starts looking really bid.
Monthly cable chart via indicators looks like it is in exhaustion spike now...or we are going to break out of a 25 year trend...take your pick..the weekly is more muddy......but the gbp/jpy monthly and weekly have HUGE upside potential...like 210 target on weekly and much more on monthly..but I don't know how far one pair can go with out the other....I have BIG targets....as they can always be revised downwards if market doesn't agree...but very few of us were talking about 1.8500 last fall :->

London 03:18 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
U.K. tabloid Sun's report Chancellor Brown to rule out Britain joining EUR for foreseeable future may spur EUR/GBP sales by speculators looking for excuse to sell pair given its weak bias, says FX dealer. But adds, however, markets may have already somewhat factored in possibility of U.K. staying out, which could limit negative impact on pair.

melbourne farmacia 03:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ML - that was my thinking... But I'm not getting out of bed at 6am local time on monday with colder mornings coming up..LOL

OK SZ 03:07 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ML, how are you? I haven't been trading for awhile but am back now..hope your doing well..any thoughts on the pound?

GA TJ 03:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ML

Are still holding the Cable and GBPJPY Longs. I am. But looking at the charts both look very over bought. Thinking that I will hold them but don't expect to much of a move until the large Stoch fall back. EMA's are looking good though.

TJ

Indonesia bahari2003 03:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hello everybody! what about nikkei? anyone trade?

ICT ML 03:02 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia...yep, hope it is actually usefull for us...maybr we catch the moves before they go off and wipe out our stops....lOL

melbourne farmacia 02:54 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Noticed my platform opening at 2pm Sunday EST from next week - must be trying to catch the New Zealand guys or those small pacific islands.

Gen dk 02:28 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:09 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
We could see 1.2879 this week friday, we are just about 200 pips away from that target from current market rate much closer to that than the sub 1.21 figure.

I posted last night we could see the range 1.2393 or 1.2172 by friday if that's not likely then we would easily see 1.2653-1.2879. 1.2653 broken in todays trading.


not a call just a fair idea of what it is to expect.

GL.

Gold Coast martin 01:45 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
syd.....the rumours do come from a very reliable source..we just wait and see what happens......like i have said it is only 2 or 3 days to wait not months to substantiate rumour...g/l g/t

Sydney alimin 01:44 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
zzzZZZzzz....asian session is really boooriinnnggg

syd 01:41 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
martin...uridashi issuance has been huge so far this month, and my information is that it is expected to continue. I know of one large deal in the pipeline already.

dont know where you have got rumours that it will slow dramatically....last year the japanese were reluctant to do them with aud/yen above 80....but for what we have seen so far this month suggests that above 80 is no longer a barrier to these issues.

Gold Coast martin 01:33 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
to sydney...While i totally agree with your reasoning which ia based on strong data reliance the fact is that the aud is a slave to the usd and yen swings.One variable that will have a downward affect on the aud in the next 2 days were rumours from japan that uridashi deals will dramatically decrease with japan in the immediate future.As previously posted this will see the aud drop to the 7580 level...

HK [email protected] 01:30 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
I think many have lost hope of going back to look-alike 1.19.. fig. for the Eur. But that this may eventually happen, Maybe on the next move of the monkey market. When every one is right, but net losing money, prices may form a sort of keep-on expanding range. The whole idea is never hope for too much profits because of the monkey-strike.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 20:43 GMT February 24, 2004

re the post above i got 489.5 on the game the link for the neww game does not work.

anyways let's keep the conversations focused on market talk before jay comes out.

Ldn 01:26 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Syd saying all that I still agree with buying aud on dips especially until the rate decision next week.

syd 01:21 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
aus data rundown, courtesy of Deutsche bank....

AUS Data: wages, job ads and construction data all strong

A trifecta of strong economic data on Australia have just been released. Taken in no particular order we had:
the Q4 wage cost index rose an original 0.9% to be up 3.7% through the year. The through year rate is equal to the series high recorded back in 2001 (albeit a relatively short history). The range of wage indicators are all holding at relatively (based on their own histories) high levels as the Australian labour market performed strongly into end-2003;
total construction work done is estimated to have lifted 4.9% in Q4, up 5.6% yoy. As expected the strength in Q4 was broadly based within the private sector (residential and non-residential building and engineering construction all lifting) and came on the back of a significant upward revision to the Q3 estimate (the weakness of which we noted at the time looked strangely out of line with every other indicator of the sector); and
the DEWR skilled vacancy series rose 0.2% in February. Of more interest to us is the underlying seasonally adjusted series which rose a further 5.8% in February after lifting 4.9% in January (the headline trend series remains weak because of the back-to-back seasonally adjusted falls in November and December). This result is consistent with our weekly count from the weekend Age and SMH which is pointing to a 2.4% seasonally adjusted rise in the combined ANZ job ads series for NSW and Victoria, the two states that have been dramatically underperforming in terms of job advertising over recent years.

The strength in Q4 wages growth and construction spending is likely, in our view, to see forecasts for Q4 GDP (due 3 March) be lifted towards our pick of 1.6% qoq/3.9% yoy (a survey conducted by Bloomberg on Friday found a median expectation of 1.2% qoq/3.5% yoy). The rise in skilled job vacancies, and its support for our view that the Sydney (in particular) job market is improving, suggests that while employment growth in H1-2004 will likely be more modest than the sharp, catch-up, gains posted in H2-2003, it will likely continue to be robust enough to see the unemployment rate continuing to trend lower through to the middle of the year.

As such the data reminds that the RBA has a firm tightening bias in place and while, on balance, we see no action as the most likely action from next week's RBA board meeting the meeting is clearly live with the prospect of a further 25 bps rate hike and the market should be priced accordingly.


===========================================

apologies for labouring the point

HK [email protected] 01:17 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
It was sad to see some who were victimized by yesterday market move.
My early observation though was only on the suggestion level was initially ignored.

HK [email protected] 08:06 GMT February 24, 2004
1.2663 a reasonable target possibility if that gives way 1,2750

Though the market can move to both directions traders have to relate to the simple fact that world economy though showing signs of "recovery"...businessman world-wide in most domains and countries complain about a deterioration in their income.And the masses have little money in their pockets.

This observation about economic recovery while the situation really aggrevates is similar to reporting about low reading of inflation figures while most of prices around us go up tens of %.

Thus we may expect some more dollar devaluation.

This morning I dug into my pips charts to find what was mentioned by many about 1.2750 target is still probable; But the pipsologs(not me) should consider 1.2718 as on the way resistance. IMHO



sydney 01:16 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
alice.....

never said 100 mil was a big posn.....and you can believe what you want if it makes you feel better.

As people here will testify, I dont get here that often, but have been totally consistent in my long aud for 2 years, until a few weeks back when i explained here why i sqd up.

hk ab will testify to that, and my occassional discussions with him about aud/nzd

2 yards....nice punt...dont think you could have bought that many down there in the illiquid conditions on friday night though!!!!!

more than happy and comfortable with my smallish new posn at a nice average.


good luck with your yards.

Melbourne Qindex 01:15 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:59 GMT February 24, 2004
AUD/USD : The upper barrier of my daily cycle is positioning at 0.7885 // 0.7915 and the lower barrier is expected at 0.7730 // 0.7761.

... 0.7668 ... 0.7730 // 0.7761 - 0.7792 - 0.7823 - 0.7854 - 0.7885 // 0.7915 ...

AUD/USD : A projected barrier is located at 0.7813 - 0.7830.


Monthly Cycle Quantised Levels

... // 0.7648 - 0.7739 - 0.7830 - 0.7922 // ...

hk ab 0.66 01:14 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
syd//just a line. When things turn bad, they turn quick. When things turn good, they turn slowly.
Thus, nobody dare to buy DOWJ at 7xxx when everyone is calling for 5xxx........

Same scenario in all mkts.

Sydney alimin 01:12 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
hmmm this is more like ego-bashing now....please we dont need to know how much u buy and sell

Ldn 01:10 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
syd , agree with your views however most of the move on commodities for the time being has already been priced in especially if china hike rates which will slow them down a little (where most of this demand has originated) just see the RBA putting the squeeze on the economy especially the housing market which is he heart of the growth (UK have been reluctant to hike rates even though most are in debt up to their eyeballs however they weigh that up against a bust similar to the early 90s and recession) RBA has done a good job so far but with all central banks they have a habit of tightening the nut a little too much . Aussie needs to take a breather to accumulate real money instead of the specs that are in at present , and as Gold Coast Martin commented if the Uridashi bonds are pulled will not be good for the Aud.

Wonderland Alice 01:08 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
syd - you only bought 100mio AUD at .7665? if you are so confident you should have taken a real sized position. I bought 2 yards at the dead balls low .7645 and just sold them today at .7818, who's better than me at trading the AUD? will let you know tom at this time what trades I have done in hindsight as well, but you can be sure they will be huge winners.

Dublin CK 01:06 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 00:56 GMT February 25, 2004

See

Chicago YM 20:43 GMT February 24, 2004

for an update

Sydney Ge11Ja 01:05 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
syd 01:00 GMT February 25, 2004

as they say in the classics , thats what makes a market

syd 01:00 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
very happy to keep buying aud on dips.....fed is ages away (in financial mkt terms) from tightening as greenspan has said time and again in the last couple of weeks.

the data is not weakening that much at all...finance and auction rates are off the highs becuase those levles were not sustianable but they are way above historical averages/ longer term trends.......stock market doesnt agree with your corp profits point eirther, trading very near the highs....the aud effect on profit is overstated in my view as capital goods imports are cheapening to offset falling export receipts...its way too simplistic to say a higher aud hurts profits......the commoduity price rises have more than offset the aud rise as well, and china is still out there buying aussie raw materials like they are going out of fashion....track down some anecdotal stories from the coal industry to illustrate this point.

todays data once again was strong.

auctions clearances were back up at 60 pct lst week in sydney.

4q GDP will be over 1 pct.


happy to have got long again at 7660 on friday....so a big thanks to whichever of the new yorkers filled my 100 mil bid there.....managed to ease half the posn out at 78 overnight, so a tidy average on the balance of my posn to run with.

see you at 82c....

melbourne farmacia 00:58 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 16:08 GMT February 24, 2004
Thanks Andras, i was just posting what i saw at the time.
Did long at 1.8782 later on. GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:56 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
i keep on hitting homeruns with that bloddy black and wite bird. always landing around the 200 marker.

Sydney Ge11Ja 00:47 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
syd 00:31 GMT February 25, 2004

whilst I can see the AUD retesting the recent highs I think Ldn has a point, the Australian numbers are correcting - consumer spending off the hihs, housing finance falling, auction rates falling, corp profits knocked by high aud and no real benefit from higher commodities becoz of aud all argue that the aud run is coming to an end. This is because the market perception will be that the RBA will be on hold which will contrast with the market perception that the FED is contemplating a hike at some stage

so maybe its better to sell usd against something else or at least do what the big position takers are doing and take profits on your longs on rallies.
This will also bring aud lower on crosses in my humble opinion

Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

syd 00:31 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
and also,..what negative data are you referring to?

unemployment at decade lows, consumer spending roaring, corp profits high and rising.

housing finance has slowed, but from extremely high and unsutainable levels.

the real economy has been and still is on fire, and the rural economy will get a huge kicker this year from the break in the drought, hence the usual ccy effect on exports will not be as dramatic as otherwise be expected.

wages data just out strong again, and building work done in 4q beat expectations comfortably......

syd 00:25 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
ldn..there is far more to the aud rally than rate hike fear....if u think that explains the extensive rally in the last 2 years you are being far too simplistic.

have a look at a copper chart as a proxy for industrial metals, or the goldman sachs industrial metals index.....then look at chinese trade data, and anecdotal evidence of what they are doing regarding raw material imports.

undeniably interest rate differentials are working for the AUD, but you are mistaken if you think thats all.

there are far bigger stories below the surface.

Melbourne Qindex 00:20 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:11 GMT February 25, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:56 GMT - USD/JPY : The odds are in favour of moving higher. I will run more analysis on USD/JPY this morning.

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

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