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Forex Forum Archive for 02/27/2004

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Barcelona Tony 22:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nice w/e everyone, see you monday

Gen dk 21:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona JP 20:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
OK.

Have a nice week end

Barcelona JP 20:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Leva anka 20:39 GMT February 27, 2004

Saying the same.

Quito Valdez 20:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Leva Anka// Wow...thanks for the URL. potential target of 1.35-1.40. Just like the long run boys were saying a week ago.

Quito Valdez 20:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
newz:
Dollar correction running out of steam? - K*B*C*Bank
Piet Lammens, Economist at K*B*C*Bank
The USD is now in corrective and consolidative mode, helped by some bickering in the EMU on rate policy, we believe that the underlying long-term bias for dollar weakness remains in place: we still see dollar downside risks due to the long standing twin deficits (wich Greenspan also warned about as he asks for spending cuts), while the US low rate environment could still be here for a while.

Barcelona JP 20:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
As far as you trust Elliot, eur/usd is going down.

The problem here is to buy or sell at the right levels and afford wide S/L. Now we have a clear range to look at: 1.2507-10 and 1,2369. From the low 1,2369 to the top at 1,2507 could be wA.

I think that a retracement of 23 fibo it isn't enough to consider that wB has been done. So, the odds make me think that we could go down to 1,2457-1,2423 zone. From there, we could go to 1,26xx next week.

Once wC is finished, eur/usd will go south to new lows and this could last weeks or months.

That's the big picture, but we should trade what we see and trust our system. Take this as a wide pictures. Do not take it as a guide to trade.

Quito Valdez 20:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
censored = maroon & black icon link bottom left of your screen. says: "Best in the business".

Quito Valdez 20:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Unken Kat// No, I live in Ecuador, next door to Peru. Ec is super laid back, no military stuff going on. noncommercial Ec. website: www.cuencanet.com

. EUR/USD still set for a bounce bak to 1.2500 - 1.2520 - censored
Robert P. Balan, Head of Financial Markets Strategy at censored
The single currency did find support at 1.2389 -- no change in view, as the currency now be in the process of rising back to 1.2520 area -- given the deeply oversold condition of the single currency. A recovery to that level should alleviate some of the oversold condition -- the task thereafter is to see if the currency has the wherewithal to extend gains and challenge the upside swing level at 1.2575.

ICT ML 20:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
it has been a long time since I've milked a position all the way to Friday close........lets get one last surge before I have to shut it all sown :-)

Dallas GEP 20:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I am Valdez!!!! LOL

I am leaving this short on auto-pilot for now with a TP @ 1.2480 and THEN it willl immediately reverse to a long with a 15 pip stop for a try @ 1.2520. Stop currently on this short euro is 1.2517 (BID).

(city)toronto Dr Unken Kat 20:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
you live in Peru ? how safe is it to travel there , any partisantos there?
alwayz wanted to go there

prauge viktor 20:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdiz do u know why the euro becoming weak it was just a power show with Her:Sch .coming to the usa and now by the n-tv news a political analitic said it was a very sucseful meeting..I dont know but its seems to be that Mr:bush will got his weak usd and Her :Sch well got a new contracts in Iraq..maby Im right and maby Im wrong..

Quito Valdez 20:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Unken Kat// funny man. I've got a few spare bottles of prop wash as well if you'd like to purchase them.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 20:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
you re printing $$$ on your own ?? cool , i have printer too

Quito Valdez 20:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
sure wants to go to 1.250 but can't...what's holding it?

Quito Valdez 20:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
yes, printing .2493 on my machine

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 20:05 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
yeah , big suprise ,
euro up

Quito Valdez 20:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Medley Global Advisors, a macroeconomic and political risk research firm, said in a report issued at around 9 a.m. EST (1400 GMT) that according to its own 'well-placed sources', "interest rate policy at the ECB is likely to be on hold for some time, barring of course completely unexpected economic developments."

The Medley report, which was obtained by Reuters, also said: "We have neither seen nor heard a suggestion that there is a coalition building in the ECB militating for a lowering of interest rates,"

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yeah DB, I will I think. I do however have a situation where my stops are guaranteed even over the weekend

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 19:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
1,2630 of course i skip 1 usually , its the upper resist line of the tunnel on 1 hr chart , the 2380 held up pretty well today
followed by the reversal , next week buy on dips for that target
watch however 2550 level

London 19:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
As far as the euro is concerned, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision next week is shaping up to be potentially much more signficant than previously thought.

The crescendo of rhetoric from European politicians in recent weeks as the single currency hovers around lifetime highs is reaching fever pitch. Coupled with the surprisingly low euro zone inflation numbers Friday and media reports suggesting a rate cut will be discussed at the ECB's policy-setting meeting next Thursday, the hitherto certainty of the ECB standing pat on rates is no longer a sure thing, according to some analysts. A rate cut would diminish the euro's allure from a yield differential perspective, given that part of the currency's appeal has been its higher return over the dollar. Federal Reserve official interest rate stands at 1%. The last time the ECB lowered rates was June last year, from 2.50%.
Dow Jones/rts.

Porto PJT 19:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, your 204 arrived.
Good Weekend all.

Quito Valdez 19:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Unken Kat// lemme know how you arrived at that, and when do U think your target will print? Sounds like great newz. Just curious.

Va Raven 19:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
1.2830 or 0.2830?

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 19:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
2630 not 2830

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 19:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
next target for euro is 2830

CT DB 19:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:33,
Hello GEP,
I would advise to square up before weekend if u can. Until 2330/00 is breached i see no reaon to believe that we are not in a wider range bound market between 2300 and 2900 (with small overshoots possible). I find it amazing that whenever the market drifts to wards either extreme that the comentators here all start talking a storm. When the euro hit 2900, most here were eyeing 1.30-35! now, bearly one week later the same are talking 1.20/21. support held today and as long as the trend holds i view these low levels as an opportunity to buy some euros cheaply.
aimho
gl & gt

Quito Valdez 19:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Gotcha...thanks, that's where it is now. I don't trade on forex yet, I buy and sell bank checks so I can't pip trade and my trades are on a once a day basis. Will trade on platforms later on this summer when I get this set up here in banana land. Thanks GEP!! :`)

SanFranciso tg 19:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
PJT - gracias. NH makes a good point also.

Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If you HAVE to put in in one or the other Valdez (euros or USD), I would choose USD.

Quito Valdez 19:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// I see what U mean, but everyone has to park their funds in SOMETHING over the weekend..some currency. I've got two choices, Euros or USDs and I've got 1 hour to make up my mind here in Ecuador. I've got USD now since I sold my Euros yesterday per your suggestion (made a little $ too, thanks, at 1.245). Seeing logic in fears of 1.21 later on next week I didn't get back into Euros again...waiting like everyone to see what's going to run....Euros or USD. When you figure a good currency for the weekend 48 hours, lemme know, I'll be here amigo..thanks in advance.

Porto PJT 19:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SanFranciso tg 19:01 , with the same humilty, think 1,87+/- 50% fibo, fig. res., etc, is good only for today, quite a range so far, monday will be another story.

prauge viktor 19:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Gep if the market close on this level is it meaninig that the way is open to the 1,235 level thanks and I wish u a very nice weekend..

Gen dk 19:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 19:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Closed a USd/CADDY long I had @ 1.3383

Dallas GEP 19:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, I would have to think about it but I don't know that I would park ANYTHING over the weekend.

Mtl JP 19:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh / plz see FIN

Quito Valdez 19:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Van jv// Huh?

Livingston nh 19:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SLC TJ - GBP is running up against its 21 da sma - should be some resistance- macd is still heading south - 1.8570??

Van jv 19:14 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez///doyou change parking spot so often? your car too?

Quito Valdez 19:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
opps... can't type..ERO=Euros

Quito Valdez 19:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// hi amigo...so would you recommend ERUs as a parking place for over the weekend or USD?

SLC TJ 19:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Any other thoughts on the gbp turning south from here?

Dallas GEP 19:05 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
1,2475 boys tough but they will need help.

SanFranciso tg 19:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
In all humility, If I were holding a Sterling long into the weekend I would be targeting 8760 and then go from there wether to cut or hold, all depending on how the week begins of course.

Van jv 18:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
possibly getting daily reversal candle/ hammer?/

Dallas GEP 18:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
1,2475 guys are trying to hold it.

Chambery FR JFB 18:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 18:46 GMT February 27, 2004
ML... my EMA200 on 30' is close to 1.8750... so why is yours just under 1.8700?? Good question :-) (dinner time, back in a minute)

Barcelona JP 18:48 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If we look at 15' chart. We'll see a great wave A with his abc.
So, now it's time for wave B as log as 1,2510 holds.

Dallas GEP 18:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
1,2507 has been high so far. We have had lower highs so far since then, Buyers @ 80 Sellers @ 90 Sellers @ 00 so WTH???

ICT ML 18:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT :1.8700 YEP, or real close to it....almost hit my 204 GPB/JPY tgt, and my cable tgt was the 30 min EMA200, just below1.8700 I think I might get them yet today......and might leave this stuff open for next week.

Barcelona JP 18:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
It's friday; it's late; it's month end.......

Dallas GEP 18:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yeah I am not risking much, I am traded @ 1.2496

Barcelona JP 18:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP, it has already hit 23 Fibo.

I do not know what it is going to do, but if you are short, look at 1,2510.

ICT ML 18:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP...I think the fate of your euro short is in the hands of the $bulls trying to defend 1.2600, lots of stops within spiking distance if that goes....

Dallas GEP 18:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
90 sellers there may try and see if fig sellers are still there as well

Porto PJT 18:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
1,87 seams inevitable on gbp, imo.

Barcelona JP 18:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If, for instance, wB finishes @ 1,2440, wC could reach 1,2632 at least. And I think we'll see that level nest week.

And if I'm wrong, SORRY.

If it trades above 1,2715, it could go above 1,29xx again.

saloniko 2004 nk 18:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Below E/J and if 129.36 go home its safe to Sell Euro ..

Till that time come tight ur seatbelts...


nk

Dallas GEP 18:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
JP I think 1.2440 at least IMO BUT it will stair step down with jerks back and forth

Barcelona JP 18:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If 1,2510 is the top of wA, wB could go to 1,2477-1,2457-1,2440-1,2423-1,2400.

If you opt to go short, the stop should be placed @ 1,2515

saloniko 2004 nk 18:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Gep..

As i think March is favore month for Euro..


nk

Van jv 18:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// There must be some good reason for EUR to stop declining--doubt abou ECB? US resolution to weaken the USD and ......

Dallas GEP 18:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm... Shorting Here with stop @ 1.2541

saloniko 2004 nk 18:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good Weekend all!

Was one Lacky day for EuroBulls today...


Cheerios..

nk

Dallas GEP 18:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Definitely alot of offers here on Euro. Good battle.

AlexVA Dennis 18:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I think we owe Gerhard Schroeder a vote of thanks for clarifying the dollar policy of GWB's opposition in Novemebr. Since Herr Schroeder has stated the Bush wants a storng USD, Kerry and Edwards will certainly be in favor of a weak USD policy.

SanFranciso tg 18:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Flip - actually no I don't see it that way, its a mess here also in many respects, but a five year old could tell at this point what and why was coming out of the BBC, let alone the British govt.

Again, sorry, was just reporting something factual I found interesting and somewhat prudent to the information pool, on to forex.

NYC CS 18:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
BBC coverage may be flawed but on the whole, "American journalism" is an oxymoron.

ICT ML 18:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
almost got the swissy stops..one more try at them in a bit...

Miami OMIL 18:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Closed my buy position on eur/usd with 20 pips in profit I don't feel good about leaving this weak intraday position open over the weekend. I guess I can really go now hehe. (/;->

Barcelona JP 18:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Lets see where this wA finishes. Then will have wB down and then wC up.

Barcelona JP 18:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 18:12 GMT February 27, 2004
Barcelona JP// theEuro rally you spoke about to 1.26...when amigo?

Valdez, I think we are in it now. We could be drawing wA from the lows of today.

Fibo:
38%: 1,2501
50%: 1,2542
61%: 1,2563


London DD 18:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Any idea how far this move will go?

London DD 18:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD trying to break 1.2490 ...

SanFranciso tg 18:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Hou - sorry folks looks like I shouldnt have brought this up. In any event, things such as the lengthy British Govt investigation confirming totally false BBC propoganda that its intelligence had "sexed up" the Iraq threat is part of a long list of issues of willfull garbage, and an unending list of very blatant and false anti-americanism. Not "independant" at all, completely slanted is more like it.

Sorry, had no idea the fact the BBC is going to be gutted (for reasons the British Govt itself outlines) would cause a disturbance here. Back to forex.

Dublin Flip 18:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
tg I can't see how you could possibly be touting that American jornalistic standards somehow tower over the BBC.
The compliant, flag waving, simplistic, editorial cheerleading dribble that has become the standard for US consumption borders on propaganda since Sept 11. "We distort, you deride" Any investigation journalism that somehow makes it onto the US newspapers (Washington POst usually) is after it has been divulged from British media. Not everything can be broken into the pro or anti american hysteria.

Va Raven 18:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 18:09 - still going on..... but don't bet too much on them.

Dallas GEP 18:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Viktor looks like 1.2500 might be top for Euro today or MAYBE 1.2520. NO GUARANTEES howver. LOL!!!! Late day on Friday ANYTHING can happen!!!

Quito Valdez 18:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP// theEuro rally you spoke about to 1.26...when amigo?

nyc jk 18:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
those comments just came across one of my news services

Barcelona JP 18:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF will end the month with a reversal week if it closes under 1.2350.

EUR/USD will end the month with a reversal week if it closes under 1,2478.

Which of them are going to win?

Chicago Irish 18:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Shroeder is no friend of the US,political posturing aside the US admin wants a weaker dollar at least short term,November election paramount concern in the White House.

boulder dat 18:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven...
are they done meeting?
i was kind of hoping that schroeder would have come out pounding his chest like a gorilla... i wanted to grab a short on the euro as i like these levels to short. but if he isn't going to say anything interesting, then it kind of takes the steam out of the day.

nyc jk 18:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
shroeder says he made clear to Bush that dollar value causes Germany harm (sure Bush really cares, thanks for the support in Iraq fellas!)
shroder says that Bush told him US President interested in strong dollar

Va Raven 18:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Bush said, "I know, but its your problem, not mine". - Bloombird

SanFranciso tg 18:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cam- don't know, we do have our share of fools here as well who might do such a thing.

Hou 18:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
What was the false propoganda? It was just Uncensored media
we don't see on US stations

London cam 18:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Lol ....Thanks ML. your grease lightning wit has put more than a smile on my face after a crap trading day. blown 3 stops on Euro this morning trying to pip raid and been wondering WTF this is going... GL

Va Raven 18:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Shroeder said he made clear to Bush "weak dollar is a worry".

prauge viktor 18:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hello Gep I need ur help to orient my direction with the euro today how do u see it plz..

Va Raven 18:03 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yes, Bush said Schroeder "made me laugh".

boulder dat 18:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
does anyone have any info regarding Schroeder and Bush's meeting? what time does it end, and is there going to be any kind of press conference?

LA Mel 18:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cam, independent is a relative term it seems mate...

ICT ML 18:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Cam.....well, if we choose from BBC, NPR, CNN and Al Jazerra....You guys at BBC win HANDS DOWN.!!!!!!!!!....just kidding mate.

london cam 17:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SanFranciso tg 17:53 GMT February 27, 2004
I may be dreaming but.....
Didn't you americans give the BBC some award a few weeks ago for the best independent media coverage of the Iraqi occupation? Humblest apologies if I'm wrong. GL

SanFranciso tg 17:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Just heard the British government is calling for the gutting of the BBC (aka Baghdad Broadcasting Corp) in light of the anti-Americanism coming out of it and the false propoganda it spread during/before/after the Iraq liberation. A true step forward, perhaps you nice folks in Britain will get better news now, hats off to you.

Dallas GEP 17:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Big gap between euro 1.2441 and 1.2471. SHOULD fill IMO.

ICT ML 17:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ...we're running stops now...but I don't know if there are enough guys interested in keeping it going to get through all of em'..looks like maybe not.....being EOM and all....

Miami OMIL 17:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I guess I said the magic words for the market to start moving. I also have a buy signal for intraday on hourly now but the signal is still weak. Looking to cash in on this small order at around 1.2560 if it finally gets past the 1.2490-1.2500 resistance. With the market as thin as this I might have to wait for next week to see 1.2560. I also have a sell order for longer-term position at 1.2510 to retest the 1.2350-30 area IMHO. I will leave these orders in place and finally go have my refreshing drink. (/;->

Barcelona JP 17:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Only want to post again what I said this early morning:
(sorry)

Barcelona JP 07:18 GMT February 27, 2004
Good morning!!

Just an early and fast thought ( I'm at work).

As far as eur/usd 1,2380 holds, the pair will go up to 1,2632 in an ABC rally. Then, It will go south again to news lows.

Porto PJT 17:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
well you know, fridays surprises, but we need to leave some on the table for the next guy.....

AlexVA Dennis 17:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Lets see, its late afternoon in Europe and lunch time in NY. It should be about time for the rumour mill to start up. I know, how about Al Jazeera (sp?) reports new Al Quaeda threat.

SanFranciso tg 17:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
PJT - looks like you are right, I'm surprised we're targeting 8680 today, real strength.

Nottingham 17:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
euro...a move above 2490 might spark short covering with much more if 2520 taken...gl gt

Stockholm za 17:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ok NYC Karl ... This is what i normaly look at . you will have to S for full service.... hope this helps.....GL..

one love !

Porto PJT 17:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SanFranciso tg 17:22 , nice trade, but the party doesnt seams over.47 is a first target.

Dallas GEP 17:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
WE may again see test of Euro high

Miami OMIL 17:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Looks like there might be something left in the tank for you Road. Like I said before I had a weak buy signal on the 30min chart for eur/usd but it is moving pretty good at the moment. Islander I am going to have my self some refreshing drinks and enjoy the sunny day out here today. There you go ML I thought that signal might help you out lol. Hope everyone has a good weekend. (/;->

SanFranciso tg 17:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sterling 8625 looks like a fair and balanced place to cover longs to me :)

beijing road 17:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML :haha.

GA TJ 17:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Looks like some folks are calling it a week. Thats probably the best position to take and I think I will join them. FWIW Cable and GBPJPY are making a little challenge of turning up but I think it will run out of steam. My best guess is that it will pull back some before making a better attempt. Will it be successful...I don't know. But I think it will be tradable Sunday late Asia early European. Ditto the EURO.

Disclaimer: The above statement will look real stupid if someone makes a run on stops later today.

ICT ML 17:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP..be FREE I say to you.....fly baby...get going...LOL

London DD 17:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yipay! USD/CHF GO!

beijing road 17:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL : plz back here, sth is moving now,lol.

st. pete islander 17:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good W/E, OMIL .... stay warm. Cold up here. C'ya.

SanFranciso tg 17:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP - thanks pal, but you know me well enough to know I got out as fast as I got in though haha.

beijing road 17:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
omil: cu next week.

Miami OMIL 17:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Looks like this might be it for the day. We will have to tune to the same channel next week to see how it all turns out. For now I don’t see any heavy moves in the market left IMHO. To everyone here have a good and safe weekend see you on the other side. (/;->

Porto PJT 17:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML , ok here.

mex sjs 17:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ict ml, been working w/ it all morning and is fine...good w/e all

Van jv 17:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
are we discounting next week ECB cut?

ICT ML 17:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone else here msn messenger been down all morning? thought it was too quite on that thing...

Dallas GEP 17:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Killer entry TG, congrats my friend!!!!

SanFranciso tg 16:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Emailed somebody last night thinking if Sterling 8550 held it increases the odds well for a fair leg up. The run to 8460 changes my parameters to calculating from 8510. Sweet buy at 8460.

Porto PJT 16:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
PORTO VMA 16:21, some days up some days down, like euro, have been a dificult one to trade last days but i am concentrating more on gbp moves.re euro seams a hard fight bullsXbears when everyone with small stops loose.imo.

NYC CS 16:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
NYC - Karl - do you have Bloomberg? If yes HVG, VOLC for Implied, HVT for actual

Sydney gvm 16:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Markets are pretty quite so I am gonna have a wee rave. Sitting here in the quite of night in Sydney mucking around with a leather bag that has the words 'C.J.Duff 1916' written on the outside. Inside is a shammy encased collection of battle planning instruments with lead pencil refills that date back to 1916. I look at it and realise how lucky we all are to be playing a battle of numbers rather than a battle of blood.

Global-View 16:48 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Max = TRL and you can find the link by CLICK HERE

beijing road 16:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
mb and gvm: thank you very mcuh.

Stockholm za 16:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
NYC Karl 16:37 GMT ..... I do not want to cloud your judgement... BUT ..... How can one realisticaly measure universal FX volume ??.................

Sydney gvm 16:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML - I am going to use EW long term coz I have clients that demand performance in their own currencies as well as me making money on diversified futures.

Road - Jay can give you Max's website - I get his emails 3 times a day and they are brilliant. Best EW man I have come across

belden mb 16:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
beijing road: I believe the link to TRL on the right hand side of this page is Max's site

NYC Karl 16:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Does any one know where I can find FX Vols information e.g. charts daily, monthly etc.

Miami OMIL 16:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML FWIW I have a weak signal but a buy signal on the eur/usd 30min chart. That should help your cause a bit. (/;->

Stockholm za 16:36 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Nothing happen today ( as yet ),,, Full balance....
Full spectrum play on ema ( 89 day ).....Euro..
buy side investing....
Happy trades

ICT ML 16:36 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gvm...I know, I have seen Max's cable chart, and we basically agree, but I don't use EW stuff myself....

beijing road 16:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm : May i have his website plz? Thanks.

Chambery FR JFB 16:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 16:31 GMT February 27, 2004
Mmmhhh... not very convincing, isn't it... :-) I'll call it a day and a week I think, but wish you good luck... :-)

Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Andras, I will co-pilot that one on USD/CAD long. Even if it DOESN't long here it is a good pivot point and we will see it again next week. Longed @ 1.3402.

Sydney gvm 16:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML - mate I have made money on every thing this month except the euro. Cable long - ? I think the elliot wave guru (kiwi Max) agrees with you - short term at least (BTW - Max is the man - gives the best long term EW signals I have ever seen & I have been following him since '86)

ICT ML 16:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
JFB..my thinking here, flawed perhaps, we'll see, is taht the move down pattern broke when it went back above 1.8550, add t that my 30 min early warning system trendlines broke on my techies, so that tells me the swing lower ended, and the next swing higher started...so target, its up there a ways, 1.8700 area to start.....
this could all come back to haunt me as well though

Chambery FR JFB 16:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 16:21 GMT February 27, 2004
I'd like to help :-), but don't see the potential to go higher than 1.8645... Do you have another target? TIA

Manama MT 16:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys for your existence with us here.
Today is friday and market is sensless and some reported a big stops above 1.2500 and it might be tested.. just be cautios about that. in the other hand there stops below 1.2410 it is been defended .. but if breaks. it will be a bad sign for euro longers. just be careful. good trades

PORTO VMA 16:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 16:08 GMT February 27, 2004
Hy PJT, how are you?
At a long time that i don´t comes here.what is your opinion in EURUSD? Today a try a short but i´ve fail and get out.

ICT ML 16:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
well gvm...my stuff said go long gbp at 9:30 EST this morning, I did, and am weathering a severe storm right now..but I see clear skies up ahead if just a few more join us....the euro is, as usual, the thorn in my side right now....

boulder dat 16:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
the individual.. or bank, should i say sitting at the low end of the euro that is protecting the exotic options below, must be using the intervention method of pushing the euro up. basically telling the market, "hit everything". i see this trend continuing for the rest of the day. the thing is, if it gets too late in the day, and they hit the buy button, no one will be around to sell. they could send euro up pretty high. next week however, i doubt this individual will have much ammo left. i expect that the euro will fall through the 1.2350 level.

Pecs Andras 16:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Gone long USD/CAD
Stop tight below 34

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
OK that makes two small losers in a row. LOL Means next one will be a GOODY!!!!

Sydney gvm 16:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML - I am such a genius -hero at equity highs - my wife hates me - bigger than Greenspan - hangin' with Paris Hilton - if ya know what I mean !!

Dallas GEP 16:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Out at -12 on last euro short

nyc jk 16:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gotcha MT good trade so far, well EUR at critical levels here not far above 1.2350 ish, I am a bit undecided so perhaps others can give you a view. One suggestion though if you don't have a strong view is to buy some EUR against it, amount depending on what your bias is. If you think more downside possible, maybe buy 25% of face value or something like that as a partial hedge.

PAR 16:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Do not sell GBP; Monday morning is take-over morning in the UK. Us companies interested in some UK banks.

ICT ML 16:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Syndey gvm.....been there many times last 8 months myself mate...high water marks tend to make a guy go hungry sometimes...LOL

GA TJ 16:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, FWIW on GBPJPY. Upon further review I do not think the time is correct to initiate Short Position. However I don't think I would want to be long either. So far with all this eratic movement it has not been able to penetrate the Res at 203.50 and the stuff I watch is very much in conflict. Good luck to you.

Manama MT 16:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yes NYC that what I mean thanks for reminding me
I bought it when euro trading at 1.2750

Sydney gvm 16:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
As a systematic trend following CTA I have been royally f.... up the arse this week on currencies. Oh how I wish I could have followed the range trade signals that Qindex, GEP,etc call successfully over many days - but I dont. It is now month end - my system trades on FX have been unsuccessful this month. Thank God I trade soybeans and crude oil but still I end the month negative and therefore cannot charge my clients an incentive fee. censored - live another month on Amex. All said and done I still watch this website daily - I really do appreciate all your contributions - as a lurker - cheers all

Porto PJT 16:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Manama MT 16:03, just a obs, monday is value is lower.

nyc jk 16:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
MT - your EUR put at 1.23 strike has an intrinsic value of 0 with EUR trading at 1.2425.......do you mean its market value at present is more than what you paid for it?

Manama MT 16:03 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Guys
I have a Eur put option strike 1.23 exp 5 march 04 shall I keep or exit..it has intrinsic value more than the cost
Thanks guys

ICT ML 16:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
thanks JK..I knew the risk, with the stops below us looking tasty and all ...I would prefer to be the one on offense right now...but helll....l you play the game, eventually you have to play defense too...

GA TJ 15:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
LondonJoe, you are correct. My mistake.

HK Kevin 15:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, you can long uSD/CAD again next week at 1.3350. This time it may break 1.35..
Re: EUR/JPP, cover the short positions from 137.48 at 135.02 ealier today. Re-enter short at 135.72, exlect it to close around 135.20 by NY close. Next week, it's marching to 132 level.

LondonJoe 15:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GA - there is no RBNZ meeting next week - it is on the 10th/11th March .. the RBA in Australia however meets next tuesday with a decision on wednesday - the market places roughly a 30 percent chance on the RBA hiking 25bp... recent numbers and mumbles suggest they sit put

Miami OMIL 15:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia if you don’t mind me getting you email too I would like to get one of those bones if you have any left lol. Have a good weekend. (/;->

nyc jk 15:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
yeah ML , that's kinda what I meant, wouldn't be good for a lot of people. I am square in it now, but just seems after the bounce to 1.25 a lot wouldn't be prepared for it. well I hope it works out for you, gl with it!

Dallas GEP 15:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I am short Euro 1,2426

beijing road 15:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Place eur order again at 1.2360 stop at1.2320

Miami OMIL 15:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:50 GMT February 27, 2004
That would definitely be crazy but not out of the realm of reality. (/;->

GA TJ 15:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

Stressful? Come on now. Just remember these 4 little words for the rest of the day. "Friday Afternoon Happy Hour". Stress.....there's no stinking stress LOL

melbourne farmacia 15:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Andras - will send u a email over weekend regarding Q.

ICT ML 15:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
NO jk...that would NOT be cool at all right now :-<

beijing road 15:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cancelled my eur order.

nyc jk 15:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
crazy day GEP . wouldn't it be something if we went and nailed all the s/l sub 1.2350 EUR now!

GA TJ 15:48 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Next week should be fun with 4 rate annouincements, CAD,NZD, EUR and GBP. I wonder if GEP can teach me his super short term majic in the 48 hours? Probably not. I ain't that learned.

london 15:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
thanks, looks like a potential short term double bottom.

ICT ML 15:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ....I need it to head north, as I took that long earlier and of all the open stuff, that is the one that scares me the most right now...NY session is pretty stressfull stuff sometimes....lOL

Dallas GEP 15:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
You would almost have to trade with NO STOPS to keep yourself in these CAd and POUND deals earlier and who said this WASN'T a manipulated market???? LOL

Euro IS developing a SELL signal now tho.

Pecs Andras 15:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 15:41 GMT February 27, 2004
Paul, great trades again!
What sort of technical signals can be expected when the pair moves up 70 pips then down 90 and then up 60 again in 45 minutes?

SA getFX 15:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Well, I guess the MACD divergence told the truth (earlier post)!
BTW, the Mich always amuses : 500 housholds out of I guess 75m(?) US households. How can such a sample reflect anything truly valid, within a few percentage points? But a good excuse for the operators, sure!

ldn 15:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: CTA Buying Fades And So Does Rally

GA TJ 15:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, It looks like GBPJPY wants to reverse course and take a trip north. 100 PIPs upthen 100 PIPS down in 1 hour. I think I will pass on that. Not my style. Don't think I will touch anything for the rest of day unless the moon, sun and stars all line perfectly.

nyc jk 15:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
haha ok thanks, must have been the Crown that gave you the insight! gd w/e cheers

Dallas GEP 15:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
That USD/CAD reminded me of a KID turning a radio knob UP and DOWN controlling the price feed. WTF????? I am plenty pissssed.

melbourne farmacia 15:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:30 GMT February 27, 2004
Cheers - once over 50 pips, i still didn't have a sell signal, so i just let her run - lazy trading but i had a crown on the go and friends around for dinner etc.. and fwiw still no sell signal yet. l

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gd night all, today is enough. let's see the viloent move next week.

Nottingham Daniel 15:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Take some profit on the Euro$ - GBP$ as it is not going down without a fight - Sorry for not posting this a sooner but I have server problems today!

Miami OMIL 15:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:35 GMT February 27, 2004
Unanimous 1.8465 here too.

Pecs Andras 15:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP
If you call CAD erratic and untradable, then how do you call cable? LOL
80 or so pip swings in 10.15 minutes

beijing road 15:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
london: 1.8465(bid)

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Andras I wish I knew friend. It certainly doesn't look very good however for a break of 1.3500 at this time. I can see 1.3470/80 area again tho. I WOULD NOT esatblish any new usd/cad positions either SHORT or LONG.

vancouver jpb 15:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gep, no doubt on the usd/cad, tried to get in at several shorts earlier ---- just couldn't get filled at a decent price.

london p 15:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
i guess we are still in the euro uptrend for the last 6 hours higher highs higher lows for 6 hours

Barcelona JP 15:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:35 GMT February 27, 2004
anyone has the day low for Cable?

1,8465

nyc jk 15:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
london 1.8470

SA getFX 15:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
london 15:35 GMT > 1.8467 (charted)

HK Kevin 15:36 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Just short again EUR/JPY at 135.70

london 15:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone has the day low for Cable?

Miami OMIL 15:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia you have a good weekend too try not to spend all the money in one place lol. (/;->

Dallas GEP 15:34 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Out on USD/CAD long @ 1.3457 but I don't really know how because the pricing is so erratic it's almost like a bad feed is spiking UP and Down. UNTRADEABLE IMO.

ICT ML 15:34 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
what a vicious day already.....been hammered once, but its coming back a bit

Pecs Andras 15:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP
You still think USD/CAD is a lonbg?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I guess there's a big option to defense on the 1.35 dlr/cad....

London DD 15:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
This is stressful!
Do those who had a view of 1.255 in USD/CHF still hold it?

Chambery FR JFB 15:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 15:25 GMT February 27, 2004
Congrats Sir :-)

beijing road 15:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab: thanks.I assum 1.23 is a bottom and 1.29 is not the top,so 1.23level is worth defending with good risk/reward.

nyc jk 15:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nice trade farmacia. I see you were originally looking for only a 50 pip bounce, what made you change your mind to hold it until 1.86? just curious

Miami OMIL 15:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I might not get my order for eur/usd filled at 1.2510 after all. I believe this is when the little fish has to be careful especially the intraday player with about 30 to 60 pip stop loss because the whipsaw can take you out fast IMHO. (/;->

Barcelona JP 15:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
German "wise man" Wiegard sees no ECB rate move before the summer, amplifying
existing jitters in the market that rate cut expectations are overblown.
Chicago PMI was close to expectations at 63.6 but the employment index improved
strongly, to 54.8 in February from 48.3 in January, a glimmer of hope ahead of
next week"s payrolls data.
EUR/USD is easing after a run toward 1.2500 faltered, now at 1.2470. --
[email protected]

prauge viktor 15:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
they are talking and there is nothing out from both of them neither HEER:SCH or Mr:Bush

Barcelona JP 15:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP

We are going to get sick with those swings

Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
TJ, I agree, USD/CAD can long when all other USD pairs are bullish AND even when all other USD pairs are bearish vice versa.

Chicago YM 15:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Have Bush and the German guy spoke yet and if so what has been said?

melbourne farmacia 15:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I too call it a night . Covered those 1.8465 longs at 1.8600. Much move than i expected, but thats forex for you. Have a nice weekend. GT

beijing road 15:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
TMD, eur is going back again, hope to get my order filled tonight.

Gen dk 15:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

prauge viktor 15:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
barcelona JB good work man with cable and the euro

vancouver jpb 15:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
bought eur/usd @ 12424 looking for +40 pips

Barcelona JP 15:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
It should not trade now above 1,8550

hk ab 15:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ROAD. bc advice is determined this run. GL.

hk ab 15:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ROAD. bc advice is determined this run. GL.

Porto PJT 15:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Paul, i see the bounce on first fan.Very nice stuff.gt & gw.

Barcelona JP 15:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Next stop in cable: 1,8507 and then 1,8465 (?????)

GA TJ 15:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
CAD, I think has developed a serious case Multiple Personality Disorder around 1.3400 +- 100 PIPs. One minute its your friend and the next it stabs you in the back. Ouch. I am avoiding her for the time being. Some serious rejection going on with the Pound. Some hits being taken.

Bad news is that I stepped away for a few minutes and was not able to follow my own advice about GBPJPY at 203.00 area might be a good spot to Short. Missed it. WTF another will come.

Gen dk 15:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Slovenia Marko 15:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp looks good for short arr 0,6705/10 with obvious resistance arr 0,6720/30/35.... until this is cleared pair still in down move.
GL!

Barcelona JP 15:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
My short in cable is GREAT!!!!!!!!

Gen dk 15:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

nyc jk 15:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
well out of EUR and CAD at b/e , market seems to be focussing on the employment component of the PMI report now.

Barcelona JP 15:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:13 GMT February 27, 2004
I think Cad stilll has a chance to break 1.3500. WTH, is that goofy or not??? LOL

I think it has, GEP.

The sharks have been playing with us today.

Slovenia Marko 15:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
eurchf support now at 1,5770/5... shud be having some troubles today going abv 1,58 but if it breaks then we have a clear way to 1,5840 and above. Think we will stay in 70-00 area today- next week above 1,58 then.

I wud rather be buying again then short at 90 or 95.

chicago cal 15:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
i'm putting my fund on auto-pilot, great week everybody! now i'm going to invest in a few bottles of wine;

until monday,

gl,gt

Dallas GEP 15:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I think Cad stilll has a chance to break 1.3500. WTH, is that goofy or not??? LOL

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
amazing eurchf....
come back to 1.58 quietly again... worth a short?....

Miami OMIL 15:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
This move by eur/usd does not change the bearish outlook yet. This move was need to get new blood in the game. I am looking at 1.2580-1.2600 area for a change in power by the bulls will ad to my short around 1.2510 if seen area IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Barcelona Tony 15:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
another dead cat bounce, shorted euro, gbp and aud again .. loaded in full again with them ... bought usdcad usdchf

Kaunas DP 15:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
below 1,2450 sentiment again is towards 1,23

Gold Coast martin 15:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
to hk....on what do you base your opiniom on?i stroglu recommend not to buy aud or nzd tonite..it would be suicidal ////

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
the risiing stock is too tempting.

Gen dk 15:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View 15:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GVI 15:00 GMT February 27, 2004
Chicago PMI 63.6 vs. 65.9
Employment index 54.8 vs. 48.3 (highest level since April 1998)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
for those who have not bought aud/nzd yet, tonight is the rare chance.....

HK Kevin 15:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Closed all my long USD/CAD at 1.3468.

Pecs Andras 15:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Interesting
The jobs component of the PMI is the strongest, and the dollar is still being punished.
So far everybody was compalining tha the econoimic outlook is rosy except for the jobs

boulder dat 15:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
from Dismal Scientist:

As expected, the Chicago PMI dipped in February from January’s more than nine-year high. However, the index reading slightly exceeded the subdued consensus expectation. Overall, manufacturing activity in the Chicago region remains very strong.

chicago cal 15:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
options market is to be blamed for recent euro rally

Barcelona JP 15:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
S/L 1,8630
Target 1,8465

Barcelona JP 15:05 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Shorted cable @ 1,8610

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
thsi is the liquidity needed.

Dallas GEP 15:03 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I would follow the ROAD for now. He looks to have it nailed.

vancouver jpb 15:03 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
i'm not having fun with this market. Lucky for me I bought into 20 dow calls at market open.

Gen dk 15:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
put limit at 1.2495.

Dallas GEP 15:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
LDN, I expect pretty vicious swings on Euro. I think next week it PROBABLY will continue back short but today, it is very possible we will see some EURO longs come into play. What I don't really know is whether we will have euro bears push back hard TODAY or not.

Gen dk 15:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

melbourne O 15:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
flood gate opening

beijing road 15:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
As i said b4, as long as 1.23level is not broken, I hold bullish view.

london p 15:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
63.6ver67.9

GENEVA FHR 15:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
CHICAGO PMI 63.6

Gen dk 14:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
short eur 1.2470 1 more.

Baz JM 14:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 12:55 GMT February 27, 2004
Today's Special(Feb 27)//Sell $/CHF. That is all you need.

Thank you GL GT

beijing road 14:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
target of eur for tonite is expected at 1.2550-1.26level, gl all.

Kaunas DP 14:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 14:54 GMT
that level would be good short opport for brave USD fans going into w/e...LOL

London DD 14:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 14:54 GMT February 27, 2004
You think it will reach 1.2550 today. Could it go much lower.

nyc jk 14:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
have gone long EUR that should read fwiw.

Ldn 14:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP do you think the Euro has legs , just got a feeling its gonna go back down Dollar Up when the dust settles. but as you say WTF do I know

Gen dk 14:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona JP 14:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I do not trust what I see.

boulder dat 14:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
the reason that the euor spiked is the expectations:

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for February was 94.4, down 9.4 points from January, but up 1.3 points from the preliminary reading. The expectations component of the index fell most sharply, to below its December value and received the smaller upward revision from the mid-month value.

nyc jk 14:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP the $/CAD is really hanging tough for now, I will move s/l to b/e now, have gone EUR after the Michigan number.

KL KL 14:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
eur & gpb racing to touch 00.......what fun to watch...i think gpb will reach first...then again I can be wrong!!

Nottingham 14:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
euro...res at 2490 and retracement level at 2506...more substantial res at 2520...look for close north of 2550 if taken poss 2580...majority of specs short euro and will scramble to cover so may accelerate over 2520...gl gt

beijing road 14:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
am : looking for 1.2550 at least

boulder dat 14:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
so wait a minute... yesterday all the data was negative and the dollar increased... and today the data is better than expected and the dollar is going down. gotta love the markets.

HK [email protected] 14:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
From the intensive bargain hunting in the gold market around 390 one could infer about What is to come with the euro.

chicago cal 14:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
good thing i told everyone to buy euro's an hour ago; i'm adding to longs on a break above 1.2520 for 1.2700

gl,gt

Dallas GEP 14:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SEE!!!! WTF do I know???? LOL As expected . That CAD should hold @ 1.3450. Will see.

beijing road 14:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
eur is flying!

Wellington am 14:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD long at 1.2445 - take 1.2500/50 ..

Barcelona JP 14:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
PMI the last

Barcelona JP 14:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
With GDP and Mich out, eur/usd should've gone down.

So, the sharks want to go up.

hk ab 14:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
anyone found eur bull steam? .....

GENEVA FHR 14:48 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
UOM 94.4

Dallas GEP 14:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
DD, Well as you know there are some guys here that I highly respect that DO believe that but my opinion at this time would be NO. If it WERE to short aggressively, my LOW guess would be 1.2590.

Gen dk 14:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London DD 14:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 14:42 GMT February 27, 2004
Thanks!

boulder dat 14:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
London DD
try this:
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

GA TJ 14:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML

Your Crystal Ball has got to be telling you something about the Sterling. Cos mine is about as clear as mud!!!! Euro might try to break to the upside but as of now I don't see much strenght to it. Cable looks to repeat the previous 24 hours and flat line. GBPJPY might see another 60 -80 pips up which might be a good spot for a short. I see a whole bunch of conflict and not much tradable. Let the Big dogs chew on each other for a while and see who wins is probably the best play.

London DD 14:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 14:37 GMT February 27, 2004
How do you come a subscriber ????

London 14:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: AFR Says RBA on Hold,

London DD 14:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:35 GMT February 27, 2004
Don't you think USD/CHF will see 1.2550 today?

Barcelona JP 14:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Wait till eur/usd breaks 1,2465/75

beijing road 14:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
My gut feeling is that DO not take any usd long position from now to close.

boulder dat 14:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Michigan Sentiment is available to subscribers about ten minutes earlier than what is reported via the press. the price movement in euro is telling me that maybe some of the subscribers have recieved the data, and the number isn't good.

Dallas GEP 14:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Got out of my SWISS short possie at BE.

beijing road 14:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Friday must be bloody again, expect to see eur at 1.2550-1.26 tonight.

beijing road 14:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Another order again of eur/usd at 1.24 stop at 1.2360.

Barcelona JP 14:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
But you will see how the market moves before, becouse there are special advantages not enjoyed by all.

GA TJ 14:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
27Feb 14:45 USD Michigan Sentiment
27Feb 15:00 USD Chicago PMI

Starting to shape up like an uneventful day. hopefully it will change. Flat all positions.

Barcelona JP 14:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
NYC NYC 14:23 GMT February 27, 2004

But you will see how the market moves, becouse there are special advantages not enjoyed by all.

nyc jk 14:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
having said that, my bias is for a weaker $ today. I think the $/selloff pre numbers indicative of the positions mkt is sitting with, seems a lot looking for the break of EUR 1.2350 etc, and also as road pointed out, USD not exactly getting much bounce from the figures today so far.

Dallas GEP 14:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I know Kevin, My comments were directed at those people that perhaps had a smaller stop tolerance of say 20-30 pips. If that truly is your risk aversion, then today's trading would NOT be for you!!!!

cerete juan david 14:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
or is it time to buy gbp?

beijing road 14:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Place order of eur/usd long position at 1.2377 stop at 27.

HK Kevin 14:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
But I will cover thse positioon if it can break 1.35 before 16:00gmt

Ldn 14:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
U of M in 20 mins at 14.45GMT

nyc jk 14:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP I agree in that 1.35 a big lvl and if that breaks you should do quite nicely, and I will not lose much. I am waiting to get involved in EUR, STG , etc. seems mkt a bit unsure at mom (as am I !) so today is just a go with the flow day for me......

NYC NYC 14:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
UofM report comes out around 13:45-50, not an exact time

ICT ML 14:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
WTH....somebody call a TIMEOUT?........
tempting to take gbp/jpy long for test of 204, but have not decided if that is smart or not right now......
the rest, well we're in dangerous areas to go long because of stops bunched up down here I think....so I wait I guess

chicago cal 14:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
when is U of M survey released?

tia

cerete juan david 14:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
when should i short gbp at this moment?, does anyone knows that?

HK Kevin 14:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, I can afford such a stop as long from 1.3272.

Dallas GEP 14:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
JK, that's a good trade going the other way. Good R/R. I think my long IS riskier but with higher profit potential IF 1.3500 breaks.

nyc jk 14:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
road I think that is a good way to look at it. although as RTN said, watching $/cad at this 1.35 area may be the key. eerily quiet in most of the majors at the mom though...calm before the storm?

Barcelona JP 14:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I do not need to say that, if Michigan and PMI come above espec, the fall will be big, very big.

Barcelona JP 14:17 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
New level before going long in eur/usd and GBP/USD.

Wait until USD/CHF trades above 1,2771

Dallas GEP 14:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
As a matter of fact guys, ALL these possies IMO will take wider than normal stops to stay in because of the volatility today. If that is something you are not comfortable with than DON'T trade. Today will provide for some great profit opps but risk will be greater.

nyc jk 14:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
shorted $/cad 1.3475, will stop out on break of 1.35

Alicante RTN 14:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Those long euro and/or cable should keep an eye on usdcad which again it testing major res at 1.35.

Divergence between CAD and EUR & GBP needs paying attention to as CAD often (but not always) acts as a leading indicator of general USD direction.

Be careful out there...

beijing road 14:14 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
US much better data does not push usd higher, it indicates the usd rebound might be over , any view abt this?

boulder dat 14:14 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
The New York City recovery is continuing in full force, according to the NAPM-NY report for February. After bottoming in August 2003, the Business Conditions Index (BCI) has grown for six consecutive months and now stands at 267.2, its highest level since September 2001.

Dallas GEP 14:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, BTW, I agree with that stop. This CADDY possie will take a pretty wide stop to stay in IMO.

Dallas GEP 14:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Bought SOME USD/CAD @ 1.3485 IF 1.3500 breaks 1.3540 easy IMO. There are corporate Sellers @ 1.3500

Barcelona Tony 14:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
chicago cal 13:50 GMT .. good risk reward, but be careful with massive sell-off to 1.2290

HK Kevin 13:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Move my s/l of long USD/CAD to 1.3442. Weak long have been stop and looking for a break of 1.35 to cover, hopefully 1.3560.

SA Newbie 13:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, GEP

Nottingham 13:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cad o/s 1st 3576 2nd 3649

Dallas GEP 13:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SA Nwbie, Bollinger Bands, Stochs, MACD all on 30 minutes

chicago cal 13:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
euro is a good buy here for all you mid-term players, only a close today below 1.2333 will signal the end of the long-term euro uptrend, i have an SAR in case that happens

gl,gt

B.A. BOCA 13:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras // a rate cut is absolutely expected by the market, anything else would come as a big surprise. these numbers do, however, put more doubt into future cuts that were also expected...we'll see..

beijing road 13:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
the day low of eur/usd has been made?

melbourne O 13:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf 1.2650 is the flood gate to 1.2550

Pecs Andras 13:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
The CAD numbers look very positive and may also result in no rate cut next week
And USD/CAD is still longing...

HK Kevin 13:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
RTN, many thanks.

Nottingham 13:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cad gdp...+3.8% q4 +0.5% m/m...better than expected

Alicante RTN 13:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
CAD GDP:

q/q 3.8 % (annual rate)

m/m 0,5 %

noth well above forecast

Swiss Dg 13:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If pmi and mich comes out good, that means a good day for $.

HK Kevin 13:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Anyone has CAD gdp figure? Thanks in advance

Swakopmund Liz 13:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Does that mean US$ +?

Barcelona JP 13:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
[13:31 US ECON: GDP Rises 4.1%, Final Sales Revised Lower to 3.2%]



[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]

AlexVA Dennis 13:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
above expectations at 4.1

Ldn Hat 13:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Anybody has the GDP figs?

AlexVA Dennis 13:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gdp 4.1

beijing road 13:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
WO.......

Barcelona Tony 13:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
WTF..

beijing road 13:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD filled the gap in 5m chart.

hong kong nt 13:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF -- expect pretty volatile action tonight, initial fall to 1.2500, then rebound to day high...

beijing road 13:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
NK: maybe 200--250pips trading range for eur.

GENEVA FHR 13:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Bundesbank Meister says EUR trading band is not a concern for ECB. Also he says that he does not think Europe should follow Japan and intervene

SA getFX 13:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro close to underside of Sep 03 T/L.

Barcelona JP 13:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
As I said 3 hours ago, if we do not see usd/chf above 1,2766, WE CAN NOT SHORT eur/usd.

saloniko 2004 nk 13:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
May be Euro Bulls ...will Smile or b Lacky again,,


Lets see..

nk

Nottingham 13:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
from my studies 1.2412 is a pretty key level so maybe some minor stops sparked

Nottingham 13:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
>>>>>>London DD 13:17 GMT

difficult to be specific but yest market took op to load up shorts when prices bounced on US data...if the same happens expect downside pressure and retest of low, otherwise 1.2470 at risk for 1.2520...gl gt

B.A. BOCA 13:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
or more likely shorters covering their backs...

beirut jb 13:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony

thank u mate,

waiting for 12370 test again and/or 8:30 USA numbers before long euro, but for me no short today before clear break of 12330

B.A. BOCA 13:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
buying the rumour?

London DD 13:17 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas how the data coming out in 10 min might affect the market now?

SA getFX 13:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yes Tony, I guess news will dictate! BTW do you think whole price action over past couple of days premeditated ("too obvious")?

Gold Coast martin 13:14 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD down to 7580 as previously posted while new indicators and research shows the euro to touch lows of 12320 by end of new york session......very volatile market...be careful out there......g/l g/t

Barcelona Tony 13:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
beirut jb 13:04 GMT .. be careful with eur long

Barcelona Tony 13:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SA getFX 13:07 GMT ,...yes but too obvious in my opinion, it also formed a penetrating candle 2-3 candles ago but I guess it will be pushed lower

B.A. BOCA 13:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hello all...very teased to let go of any long gbp left, will have to watch euro response.

CAD at a key point, the GDP numbers could push it over 1,35 for good....

short eurgbp would be the logical play if any of these ECB rumours are true (I doubt a cut next week)

GL!

SA getFX 13:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
MACD diverge up Euro 30min, hourly, 4 hourly.

beirut jb 13:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Hi traders,big propaganda about more drop on euro, my mentor

used to say : "show me"

well until eur/$ close today below 12370 , i still beleive this is consolidation and at this level eur/ could be good buy

GL GT

Livingston nh 12:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
toronto - the inflator price will deflate GDP to a "real" number - inflation is going to become more of a focus in all these releases

London DD 12:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 12:55 GMT February 27, 2004
Thanks. What analysis are you using for this? TIA

hong kong nt 12:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- join you on long dlr/yen at 10...

Toronto Bogdan 12:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I thought it was deflator - not inflator...

PAR 12:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
A german chancellor who wants a weak Euro or DEM is inspired by pre WO II German economics while chocolats were worth more than german currency.

Gen dk 12:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hong kong nt 12:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 12:55 GMT -- what level?

Livingston nh 12:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
The GDP revision - watch the inflator figure - that could be up to 1.3% // the failure of the BLS to put a credible revised PPI figure out last week is an indication of the failure of inflation figures to adequately account for costs in a service based economy

hk revdax 12:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Today's Special(Feb 27)//Sell $/CHF. That is all you need.

Gen dk 12:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LDn 12:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Economists expect a downward revision in growth in the US 4Q GDP with 3.7% forecast vs the advance reading of 4.0%, according to a DJ-CNBC survey. The revision is a reflection of a widening trade deficit caused by deterioration in exports. The chain-weighted price index is expected unch at 1.1%. Data due 1330 GMT

hong kong nt 12:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
divergence btw aussie and commodity, correction today on commodity front? ...

london p 12:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
sorry guys was looking at the wrong charts the pattern is on the gbp/usd chart

london p 12:36 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ok found a answer to my own question on this site

http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/tcbigw.htm

from what they say it could be in play makes intersteting reading

london p 12:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
on the hourly euro charts could this move from 1.29 down to 1.2350 back up and down again to 1.2350 be the makings of a w pattern with the next leg up to 1.29 or is this to obvious.and is the pattern to messy.
any thoughts.

GVI john 12:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2395…$/yen 109.15
DJIA +25 pts… 10-yr 4.02%, +-2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI...


Nottingham 12:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT

Nothing is ever too much...on the 22nd of Sept last year the market surpassed the move of what would be required to get cable down to 1.82 handle (in that case on the o/b side)...also it's a Friday, we're at some key technical levels on euro and on cable we're down barely a figure from Friday close...pays to keep all options open or at least not trade with fixed assumptions...gl gt

atlanta 12:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
MARKETS: Commodities Futures Breaking Higher

Ina* mr.co'z 12:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello Mr. Q

would you give your monthly resistace gbp/usd for next month please...? Thx..."Q"..! gl..

SA getFX 12:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Pivot levels calculated:
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.2646 1.8979 R5
1.2582 1.8879 R4
1.2546 1.8814 R3
1.2510 1.8748 R2
1.2478 1.8698 R1
1.2446 1.8648 P
1.2410 1.8583 S1
1.2374 1.8517 S2
1.2342 1.8467 S3
1.2310 1.8417 S4
1.2238 1.8286 S5

Cable has dropped about twice as many pips as Euro: hit S3, Euro hit S2.
Cable above 55EMA daily, Euro under.
Euro through Sep 03 T/L.
Cable on Daily channel T/L support.
GL!

Chambery FR JFB 12:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 11:09 GMT February 27, 2004
Thx... :-) Am still short with tight stop, will stick to it until US numbers :-) and maybe add more if 1.8465 gives way... GT

saloniko 2004 nk 12:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
BC...

May the force be with u..

Good Lack!

nk

Melbourne Qindex 12:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is trading below the lower barrier of my daily cycle and it is under heavy pressure. If the market resumes its downward trending movement and trades below 1.8366, my monthly cycle charts indicate that it will be pulled towards 1.8210 (I know it is too much for to day, may be during period of next month).

Melbourne Qindex 00:57 GMT February 27, 2004
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.8517 // 1.8580 - 1.8642 - 1.8705 - 1.8767 - 1.8830 // 1.8892 ...

hong kong nt 12:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
add oil, gbpjpy, drop below 200 tonight...

hong kong nt 11:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
come on, eurjpy, drop below 135 more...

Lagos Styrax 11:45 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good day everybody
Weekend and end of the month
Watch it and be very very careful
The sharks are out!!!

Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : the lower barrier of my daily cycle is likely to be challenged today.

Melbourne Qindex 23:37 GMT February 26, 2004
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 0.7461 ... 0.7511 ... 0.7633 // 0.7658 - 0.7683 - 0.7707 - 0.7732 - 0.7756 // 0.7781 ...

GA TJ 11:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Ooppps

make that Cable 1.8245 not 1.8425

Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Something is not right with this pair when it is trading below 0.7699 today.

GA TJ 11:17 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If Cable 1.8425 gets crushed I am thinking a trend reversal on the Daily charts with the low 1.7000's possible. Needless to say I think long term we might be a the crossroads here. Because I do not trade that far out I will stick with the 30 min chart.

tel-aviv dor 11:17 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
bc , thank you for your time & for your answer .

Melbourne Qindex 11:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Melb mpfx 11:15 GMT - Good evening!

Melb mpfx 11:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
BC and Quindex as always a pleasure to read your posts...
thanks and gt to u both..

PAR 11:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Looking at the money I have to spent to buy day to day products which are always getting more expensive I get the impression European statisticians are living in an another world than normal European consumers. Everything is more expensive and they lie to us that inflation is dropping. Unbelievable.

shanghai bc 11:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

DOR -- Good evening..There is a big bull looking after 1.2300-1.2350 region ..They were lucky yesterday but may not be that lucky today..Huge arm-wrestling has been going on for two days already..Once 1.23 line goes 1.22 line may provide some good bounce up to 1.2350..Good trades..

melbourne farmacia 11:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 10:38 GMT February 27, 2004
Just looking for 50 + pip bounce. Break of 1.8465 sees 1.8103 in coming days IMO.

Melbourne Qindex 11:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 134.38 - 135.90. The mid-point reference is 135.14.

beijing road 11:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Let me make a guess. If eur/usd could make daily reverse signal, it should closed above 1.2520 with possible high at 1.2530-70level. Me plan to buy eur/usd only after data release.GL and GT to all.

Melbourne Qindex 11:05 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The mid-point reference of my monthly cycle quantised level 1.2239 - 1.2391 is 1.2315.

London DD 11:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good morning,
Any views on gold? Do you think it will still dip lower or could it turn back now? Also any year end views; some say above 500. TIA

tel-aviv dor 11:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon , bc , pls explain about "lucky bulls" yday.
Euro droped from app. 1.2515 to app. 12450 . TIA @ GT

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
okie, this is really the last one b4 buffet.

bc// THANKS!

melbourne O 11:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
dollar is in short term trend exhaustion, levels above usd/chf 1.27 & below eur/usd 1.24 are not sustainable

Melbourne Qindex 11:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is facing some problem 1.2408 (daily cycle) and a stronger resistant point is expected at 1.2425* (Set B curve).


Melbourne Qindex 23:10 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2100 ... 1.2223 // 1.2254 ... 1.2346 - (1.2377) - 1.2408 - 1.2439 - 1.2470 - 1.2500 - 1.2531 // 1.2562 ...

Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is now consolidating between 1.2386 - 1.2451 (Set A). The odds are good that the market will tackle 1.2321 in the next move. The mid-point reference of 1.2191* - 1.2451*, and 1.2321* is a quantised level in Set B.


Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The following 22-day cycle are now governing the downward trending movement of the market.

Set A : ... // 1.2191* - 1.2256 - 1.2321 - 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Set B: ... // 1.2321* - 1.2347 - 1.2373 - 1.2399 -1.2425* - 1.2451 - 1.2477 - (1.2503) - 1.2529* // ...


Melbourne Qindex 11:45 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : My monthly cycle indicates that the market is pulling towards 1.2239.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 11:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad has actually past the 200 dma.
now let's see if it can close above this 1.3418

shanghai bc 10:59 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

MIAMI -- Good evening..Good trades..

NIC -- Good evening..Good trades..

QINDEX -- Good evening..Thanks for the info..Good forecasts and trades..

AB -- The answer is in Gold..It leads non-Dollar assets crowd in the present cycle..Golden finger for the direction of non-Dollar assets..

Chambery FR JFB 10:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 10:50 GMT February 27, 2004
Thanks TJ... Have lowered my stop @1.8520 on GBP short, just in case the down move resumes :-) Happy trades

Nottingham 10:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
euro...failure to close below 12412 at noon gmt will take away nearterm downside pressure...a second failure to close below at 1600 gmt will be bullish but I expect any rally that may take place will have already started by then as US data will surely affect...gl gt

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
bc// you are very busy in the business recently! Nice to see you around at this moment.

May I ask you what dlrcad can we look for on the top side?

Brissy JM 10:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
did I just see NZD gap to 6839 or was I dreaming?

Atlanta 10:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD: Credit Data Increases Likelihood Of RBA Hike

GA TJ 10:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB, IMHO the low today will be determined by the GDP number. This thing usually goes in the same direction preceeding the announcement no matter what the numbers is. But where I am getting confused currently is the direction up until now was down for the Euro. But we have 6 30 minute bars to change the direction going into the report with EURO appearently finding a temp bottom here. Techs suggest an up move and since I was short Cable I decided to close.

Melbourne Qindex 10:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:38 GMT - Good evening!

EUR/USD : The market is going to vibrate around 1.2239 - 1.2391 with a magnitude of +/- 151 pips, i.e. 1.2087 - 1.2542 within the remaining period of this month. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.1935.

Miami OMIL 10:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I will be back later the move is over for now. The bears have taunted the bulls let see what the bulls come back with. (/;->

Genoa nic 10:48 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good evening Shanghai BC,
barring any fireworks for some unpredictable event, this month candlestick is unfolding a nice shooting star on the Euro!

Melbourne Qindex 10:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is testing the supporting strength of my weekly cycle barrier at 1.8408 // 1.8512.

Melbourne Qindex 03:14 GMT February 21, 2004
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical point of my weekly cycle is located at 1.8616. The lower barrier is expected at 1.8408 // 1.8512 and the mid-point reference is 1.8460 . The upper barrier is positioning at 1.8823 // 1.8927 and the mid-point reference is 1.8875 . The market rhythm is represented by 104 pips (k=0.010394) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.8408 - 1.9031 (Suggestion : Maintain a short position if the market is trading below 1.8823).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

1.7992 ... 1.8200 ... 1.8408 // 1.8512, 1.8616, 1.8720, 1.8823 // 1.8927 ...


Miami OMIL 10:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the tip BC I appreciated. (/;-> GT

Miami OMIL 10:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I closed some of my shorts for eur/usd at 1.2380 will wait to reload higher or add to the position under the 1.2350 area. (/;-> GL GT

shanghai bc 10:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

The day is still young and it is the end of the month as well..Eur/usd bulls are unlikely to be as lucky as yesterday..Fwiw..

GA TJ 10:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

Well, we have about 3 hours to go before the big comes out. My Cable trade looks to be running out of steam for now. Prudent move would be to close it and see what happens with GDP number.



27Feb 13:30 USD GDP (P)
27Feb 13:30 USD Chain Wghtd Pr Indx
27Feb 14:45 USD Michigan Sentiment
27Feb 15:00 USD Chicago PMI

Chambery FR JFB 10:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 10:18 GMT February 27, 2004
Morning :-) May I ask what your target is plz? Do you think we've seen the low for today? TIA :-)

Melbourne Qindex 10:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is challenging the upper barrier of my weekly cycle.


Melbourne Qindex 03:16 GMT February 22, 2004
USD/CHF (Weekly Cycle): The lower barrier is positioning at 1.2347 // 1.2448 and the mid-point reference is 1.2398. The upper barrier is expected at 1.2752 // 1.2854 and the mid-point reference is 1.2803. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 101 pips (k=0.010137) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 1.2144 - 1.2854. (Suggestion : Maintain a long position if the market is trading above 1.2448).


Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2144 ... 1.2347 // 1.2448, 1.2549, 1.2651, 1.2752 // 1.2854 ... 1.3056 ... 1.3360 ...


hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
No one can fight with repatriation. even aud, eur..... fwiw.

Melb mpfx 10:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw from IFR
[03:56 GMT Feb 27th] [EUR/USD] Bids at 1.2410/20 and 1.2370/80, large no touch
at 1.2350, stops building below 1.2335. Offers 1.2450/70, with stops above
1.2515. (ams)

sa newbie 10:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Gep, will it be possible to let me know what indicators you are using? Thanks a lot for all yr postings and sharing

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
trail aud/nzd long at 1.1235.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
close the dlr/chf long from 1.2500 here (1.2750.
Keep the rest 1.2205, 1.2268, 1.2450.

Dallas GEP 10:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
YM, I am better at exit than entries but uisng 5 minute charts to confirm entries and EXITS After 30 minute charts confirmed the trades helps PLUS a little dash of instinct.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
move the dlr/jpy stop on time. But I won't move it anymore. Nice buffet waiting for me, nt. GT and I will close my eyes now.

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 10:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
now eur gbp is at critical place....

would like to open a hedge like this.

short eur/gbp .67 (here) buy eur 1.2385 (or better lower)

prauge viktor 10:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
thanks Gep

Miami OMIL 10:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
The bears are testing the eur/usd waters ahead of them at this point. It is like two armies that are ready to collide in war and one is taunting the other to get enough strength to begin the fight LOL. (/;->

Nottingham Daniel 10:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Closed all Short positions on Euro$ - GBP$ - wait and see if Euro$ goes well below 1.2380

melbourne farmacia 10:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
long Gbp/Usd at 1.8465 bid fwiw.

Brissy JM 10:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 10:12 I think local consensus is still for no change to rates yet. Technically it looks like a head and shoulders reversal on daily chart. I am short but there does seem to be support in the 7640 to 7680 area. G/L G/T

Dallas GEP 10:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
OMIL My impression is the same Not enough energy to break 1.2350 at this time IMO

Dallas GEP 10:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I would close NOW Viktor

Ldn 10:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham thats what I am thinking ,
see it a good bet between now and next Wedsnesday as long as I can get it cheap

Nottingham 10:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 10:10 GMT

Credit data overnight made aud relative outperformer as rate hike now back on cards...if it gets oversold I suggest it would be one of the better vehicles to short dollar with...gl gt

Sydney bl 10:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
thank you Dr Qindex for you reply, wish you have a nice weekend

Ldn 10:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Brissy JM Looking to go long, would like 7640 but dont think it will get there just yet until next week

Gen dk 10:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brissy JM 10:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
AUD is holding up well here. Anyone think it will break 7680?

Barcelona JP 10:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Lets see if usd/chf trades above 1,2766 before shorting eur/usd.

Miami OMIL 10:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
JP I am already short at this time. BTW great calls keep it up. (/;->

Barcelona JP 10:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd new low : 1.2374.

Take care of longs.

Miami OMIL 10:05 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
The fear I have with this eur/usd short if 1.2380 is taken out is that it does not have a lot of push to take out the 1.2350-30 barrier. Only if the big boys are behind the move will it have enough momentum at this time IMHO we will see. (/;->

Barcelona JP 10:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL 09:57 GMT February 27, 2004

Sorry, I didn't see it.

Ready to short eur/usd @ 1,2369?

prauge viktor 10:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hello Gep may I close the euro short now or better to wait to 1,235 thanks

Chicago YM 09:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP can i ask you how you are able to be so good at getting great entry points? Is it something on your charts?

Miami OMIL 09:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP I posted a message earlier I don’ know if you read it or not but now that you are here this is what it said:

Miami OMIL 15:18 GMT February 26, 2004
Barcelona JP 15:12 GMT February 26, 2004
That is what the technical charts are showing at the moment. BTW thanks for sharing with us here. I looked at the suggested indicator settings you posted the other day and it gave pretty interesting results I will tested further with other time charts when I have more time thanks again. (/;-> GL GT

Barcelona JP 09:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ıst sez. 09:52 GMT February 27, 2004

Please, I learn a lot from those calls. Raden is a good trader as GEP.

I look at my charts to trade. And when I see a call, I check my charts and my system.

Dallas GEP 09:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Closed Euro Shorts from 1.2460 @ 1,2393 +67

Barcelona JP 09:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Another:

Try to short eur/usd @ 1.2369.
S/L 1.2420

Do it if you see usc/chf above 1.2761

ıst sez. 09:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

"Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:28 GMT February 27, 2004
hello !!
seen gbp/usd still valid to get 1.8744 to get key answer of trend direction.
also eur/usd to get 1.2526 minimum."

No comment...

Genoa nic 09:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
JP, IMVHO today downside breakout of the Euro is likely until $/jpy doesn't break through 108.70/80, FWIW

Miami OMIL 09:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SNP looking for a retracement if 1.2350-30 to 1.2155-60 rough figures but will see. I always keep plan B ready to deploy in case LOL. I hope you are having fun too. (/;->

GA TJ 09:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone find it strange that the USDJPY has not moved much while other dollar pairs have made a little run? Can anything be read into that? Will ponder that one while I run to the store for coffee.

TJ

Tallinn viies 09:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
fwiw
Reuters:
Goldman introduces "sell euro/yen at 135.65" as its final top-10 macro trade
for 2004. Goldman says Japanese data are looking strong, the euro is modestly
overvalued and the trade-weighted dollar is likely to continue to decline, led
by rise in Asian currencies. Goldman sees euro/yen going to 120 and
dollar/yen could break 100.

LAX-LGB SNP 09:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
OMIL - thanks man
yea i was hoping against hope for sub-1.22 but who knows ? maybe next week we'll get there
BTW ... i hope you're having fun NOW @ least

Barcelona JP 09:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I like to re-post what I said 2 hours ago:

Barcelona JP 07:58 GMT February 27, 2004
If you decide to go long eur/usd with s/l @ 1,2380,
take care if you see USD/CHF above 1,2660.



Barcelona JP 07:55 GMT February 27, 2004
Fellows, I could be very wrong, but as far as eur/usd holds at 1,2380 eur will go above 1,26xx.

I don't love any currency. I just trade what I see. The range now is bloody narrow, so we have two options:

Do not trade or trade that range.

09:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
take your virtual profits now

Miami OMIL 09:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
SNP I am holding eur/usd short to see the reaction at 1.2350-30 area first if broken then I will add more shorts if not I will square. (/;->

Genoa nic 09:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good morning all
To me, today's moves seem yen surging related. GBP/JPY in particular, FWIW

Brazil,Sal JH 09:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Eur/dir small bounce from 1.2385???

LAX-LGB SNP 09:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
i meant to ask for advice on limits ... clearly my brain's deep-fried now

LAX-LGB SNP 09:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
since mid-week
i'm holding shorts on gbpusd ... gbpjpy ... audusd ... eurusd and longs on usdchf ... usdcad
any advise limits would be highly appreciated ... TIA everyone

GA TJ 09:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP, RE: Cable 1.8400 is not out of the question today. But I am biased, Short from 1.8735 and again 4 hours ago 1.8620.

US reports are the only thing that can bust my plan. So they probably will. LOL

hong kong nt 09:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gbpjpy already broken 202, a break of eurjpy 135 should spark firework for rest of the day...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with gbp/usd when at bid price 1.8537. maybe pullback.

LAX-LGB SNP 09:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
can anyone explain surge in EURGBP ?

Dallas GEP 09:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
DOJI's everywhere, no one knows WTF to do!!!! LOL

hk ab 0.66 09:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nt, there's one v. good which is not in a hotel.
IT's in TST. I can send you the info to your email later.
bye, in a hurry.

hong kong nt 09:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- hope you may take profit on your GBPJPY short below 200. where you go for buffet? any good suggestion for me?

hk ab 0.66 09:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cooll....

move the dlr/jpy stop to 108.73

beijing road 09:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
stopped out with -29pips.

hk ab 0.66 09:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
will have a nice buffet tonight.

place stop profit dlr/jpy long @ 108.93 for both lots. if exited will evaluate later.

the aud/nzd long will be exited if it can't break 1.1310 4hr resistant.

hk ab 0.66 09:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
what is the aud/nzd doing now..... interesting.

hk ab 0.66 09:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
what is the aud/nzd doing now..... interesting.

hk ab 0.66 09:05 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nk, long two one from 109.05 and one from 107.05.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:03 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

hk ab..
Are u long or short USD/J?..lol

nk


hk ab 0.66 09:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
thinking about to exit the chf long from 1.2500 at here and kept the rest.

hk ab 0.66 09:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nt, current yen positions,
long dlr/jpy 107.05, 109.05
short eur/jpy 136.30, gbp/jpy 204.60
GT.

Dallas GEP 08:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne, I am with you on the USD/CHF biz now. Short from 1.2680. Stop @ 1.2711 but I will move it if close

hk ab 0.66 08:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cool, filled my 109.05 after I come back....

Nottingham Daniel 08:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.2435) The euro drifted lower right from the opening bell in Europe yesterday, although short-selling was probably not on the agenda of day-traders. The single-currency was only barely above the then week’s low
and the memory of how it leapt 2 percent higher from there was still fresh in the mind. For those who considered the merits of a double-bottom and tried to buy the dip, the afternoon’s US durable goods number gave an ideal
opportunity to unload. The day’s low of 1.2385 represented the very first level where we had anticipated medium-term bids. Their logic is not that far removed from their short-term counterparts, except that the horizon is a little
wider. They focus rather on the January lows and consider the mid-$1.23’s as the lower border of a broad congestion. Hence, they take advantage of these levels to rebuild their euro exposures to full strength. Our current strategy relies on the fact that these medium-term dip buyers could be wrong – at least, in the timing of these purchases. We continue to
look for lower prices, even though we believe that similar buy orders are probably lined up all the way down to 1.2270/80. This level, which is also the current target, is the last of good nearby supports. Below there, the euro could fall to as low as 1.2090 within a wave of stop-loss sales. To the upside,
the risk-reward limit to the bearish view must be tightened to 1.2515. However, to stabilise from here, the euro must first leapfrog the 1.2650 resistance.

GBP USD (1.8625) The poor support situation was clearly apparent in the market yesterday; the first move was a 200-pip decline. Later in the day, a comment by the UK Prime Minister to the tune that the BoE would not intervene in the FX markets, helped Cable to recoup some of the losses (although there had previously not been any suggestion that intervention was imminent). Still, the first sold support is almost 300- pips lower at 1.8355/60 and this remains our current objective. The first intermediate point comes in at 1.8415 today. The risk-reward limit to the bearish view must now be tightened to 1.8775 and initial resistance will be felt at 1.8695.

Euroland 000 08:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ıst sez. 08:46 GMT February 27, 2004
oK thanx

hong kong nt 08:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
a break below 135 eurjpy and 202 gbpjpy may signal more room on the downside...

Nottingham 08:47 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
re euro rates...to listen to ones own countrymen is one thing but to do as one is told by a German is something a Frenchman will never do...anyone that understands the Franco-German relationship at a grass roots level (and I suspect more significant levels too) will understand this...bottom line is Trichet will do everything he can to avoid cutting rates this time, that is my view and I think we will need to watch euro for a coiled spring action if expectations continue to build as a failure to cut will certainly disappoint a significant number of people even at this stage...euro could add 1 fig within a hour of the announcement but whether this is from 1.20 or from 1.26 is another question

ıst sez. 08:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Euroland.
I got it from my reuters news.
I m a dealer for medium financial inst.

melbourne O 08:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf presently experiencing trend exhaustion, anything above 1.27 is not sustainable. the 1.25 levels will likely be tested today

Stockholm za 08:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
French Jan Jobless Rate 9.6% Vs 9.7% In Dec
Number 2.61M Vs 2.64M In Dec
¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤

ld 08:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
The euro remains tilted to the downside Friday as key economic indicators from both sides of the Atlantic could fuel fears of a European Central Bank cut in interest rates.
The first indicator to come is February inflation data for the euro zone, due at 1100 GMT. Economists expect euro-zone inflation to have slowed to 1.7% this month from 2% in January. If confirmed, the decline, along with the recent weakening in business confidence in Germany, would widen the scope for an ECB rate cut. That would make the euro less attractive from a yield perspective. Euro-zone consumer confidence data, due also at 1100 GMT, is expected to be flat.
AP//

hong kong nt 08:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 08:31 GMT -- the next move should be driven by yen crosses, i bias on the downside but worry about one more test of recent high and that's why i exited half of my earlier short positions...

Dallas GEP 08:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
NT, I closed that Aussie short @ +10PIPS. I think you are right. Probably not much down range NOW.

Euroland 000 08:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ıst sez. 08:27 GMT February 27, 2004

Where can I get these comments of UBS exactly,? THANX!!!

Nottingham 08:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
euro...key level on downisde at 1.2412...break risks yest lows...resistance seen at 2470...break higher targets 2490/2506/2520...anything higher would spark large short covering and a probable close at 1.2580 or higher...gl gt

ıst sez. 08:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, UBS
* EURO/DOLLAR: "Immediate downside risk while below $1.2517. Risk to $1.2332/50 key support zone. Medium-term outlook: break of $1.2332 required to undermine broader uptrend and define interim top at $1.2929."
* DOLLAR/YEN: "Immediate uptrend dominant above 108.04, with renewed gains beyond 110.05 likely to pave the way for 111.51. Intraday support now 108.80. 106.81 break defines 105.18 as a base."
* DOLLAR/SWISS: "Short-term upside theme intact above 1.2569 maintains pressure on key 1.2726 resistance. Break of 1.2726 required to suggest recent gains not simply corrective, while defining 1.2378 as a more significant floor. Loss of 1.2378 would renew pressure on 1.2135."
* STERLING/DOLLAR: "$1.8457/1.8945 break needed for directional inspiration. Interim base at $1.8457. Fresh gains beyond $1.8948 expected to unlock $1.9143+."
* EURO/STERLING: "Broader downtrend intact below 67.64, with scope for 66.53 ahead of 66.41."
* EURO/YEN: "Immediate upside theme continues above 135.55, with break of 137.84 seen as catalyst for 140.90."
* EURO/SWISS: "Break of 1.5810 required to trigger a fresh round of gains towards 1.59-handle. Trend remains positive above 1.5720."
* AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "US$0.7642/0.7818 break necessary for next 100+ pip directional signal. Medium term: break of US$0.7543 needed to threaten broader uptrend, while defining US$0.8005 as a top.
* DOLLAR/CANADA: "C$1.3256/1.3519 define key short-term triggers. Medium term: prospective base at C$1.3068, but break of C$1.3519 needed for confirmation."
**

SPB Mike 08:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Hello forum!
What time could we have news from Bush/Shreder meeting?
Could it give surprise or it's already discounted (Shreder's comments ytd)?
Good trading day 4 all!

Euroland 000 08:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Technically, euro/dol should go at higher levels, but there is a politcal willing to push it down. The worst than expected u.s datas of yesterday should have boost it up a little bit and it has not been the case.It is said ECB is the only one that has the power to cut rates, but Chancellor, PM and President have a strong capacity of persuasion.

Miami OMIL 08:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I hope this is not the start of feuding again. I hope that if the people don’t like what they read then don’t follow the trade or don't read that person’s comments just skip over to the next one. It is easy to be a critic but it is hard to put your plans on the forum of all to see. Let’s keep the peace today we will need all the help we can get from each other IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Melbourne Qindex 08:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2451 is a super magnet and the market is not able to move too far away from it. A better analogy is to consider this quantised level a celestial boby and the market is a comet moving around it.

hong kong nt 08:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- hope the unwinding of yen crosses may spark some firework tonight...

hong kong nt 08:19 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- booked half profit on GBPJPY front, let the profit run now for the rest, the unwinding maybe greater than most expect...

MONACO OGA 08:17 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
yes indeed Ldn, thanks for correcting the mistake, got carried away by all those important figures...good luck ahead++

Dallas GEP 08:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas and Qindex are both wonderful technicians in my view, They are right far more often than they are wrong. This currency market is so volatile right now, I would be surprised if one's view DIDN'T change with it. I know mine does constantly.

ıst sez. 08:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Narobi,JK,
I dont want to hurt anyone this forum.I m not intend to depreciate his knowledege.But his consistency in such short time is very very clear.
Sorry but it is what I saw.

Ldn 08:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
MONACO OGA 08:01GMT
FYG the
US univ Michigan confidence Feb is out @ 14.50GMT &
US Chicago purchasing manager Feb is out @ 15.00GMT

not 13.30GMT as reported earlier

cheers

hong kong nt 08:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 08:04 GMT -- i exited the trade with few pip gain, feel uncomfortable because see too many short selling commodity future, will come back at .7810/30...

hong kong nt 08:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY kiss 10-day ma, exit short now...

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 08:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ıst sez. 07:49. Please dont be so harsh on radem Mas. His analysis is very valuable in this forum.

Dallas GEP 08:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Have an Aussie Short now from .7710 off a SELL order I left (NT's suggested trade).

Melbourne Qindex 08:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : When there is a change in the market rhythm the market will shift from curve B to curve A. The expected magnitude would be 1.2451 +/- 65 pips, i.e. 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516.

MONACO OGA 08:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 27/02
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2440), 50 pips lower than yesterday's opening. The pair cracked 1,2480-1,2500 support zone yesterday as we feared on renewed selling pressure induced by speculations of future ECB rate cut on March 4th meeting (note the positive reaction of stocks around the world). Sub 1,24 levels were tested (1,2382) before the pair stabilized inside 1,2420-50. Closing in NY was around 1,2440. Overnight the pair was unchanged. Tonight's closing (weekly close) will be of major importance: below 1,2350 would send a strong bearish signal and will probablely induce some selling and retracement to at least 1,2100. So far we are still in a 1,2350-1,2900 range trading. Resistance for the day at 1,2560 then 1,2620. Technical analysis and chart patterns make us reconsider our bullish stand that prevailed in the last months. Bearish signal activated yesterday with a closing below 1,2450 needs to be confirmed later today with a sub 1,2350 level.

Data out today:

EZ economic confidence Feb expected 95,9 11.00 GMT
EZ industrial confidence Feb expected -6,0 11.00 GMT
EZ consumerl confidence Feb expected -16,0 11.00 GMT
EZ CPI estimate Feb Y/Y expected 1,8% 11.00 GMT
US gross domestic product Q4 expected 3,7% 13.30 GMT
US personal consumption Q4 expected 2,6% 13.30 GMT
US GDP price deflator Q4 expected 1,1% 13.30 GMT
US univ Michigan confidence Feb expected 93,1 13.30 GMT
US Chicago purchasing manager Feb expected 63,5 13.30 GMT

Gold around 394,50 , with WTI March at 35,42.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 109,00) retracing from 109,80 overnight over the NIKKEY 2% gains. Supports for the day at 108,60 then 108 while next resistance stands around 109,70. We are still neutral on the pair, talks in the market of players caught short trying to cover their positions should limit any downmove.
EUR/JPY (currently 135,80) was rejected at our 137,50 target and is now looking set for a retracement to 134,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8625) lost another 200 pips to 1,8550, following general USD strenght. Price action should be similar to EUR/USD although we believe some further expectations of rate hike in UK will support the GBP.
EURGBP (0,6685) found some support on 0,6655-60. the carry trade factor should be weighting on the cross. Although strongly oversold, EUR/GBP could easily visit the 0,6530 zone where support should start showing up.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Barcelona JP 07:58 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
If you decide to go long eur/usd with s/l @ 1,2380,
take care if you see USD/CHF above 1,2660.

Barcelona JP 07:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Fellows, I could be very wrong, but as far as eur/usd holds at 1,2380 eur will go above 1,26xx.

I don't love any currency. I just trade what I see. The range now is bloody narrow, so we have two options:

Do not trade or trade that range.

Melbourne Qindex 07:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 07:46 GMT - EUR/USD : Baiscally the market is going to vibrate around the projected chart point at 1.2451 with an expected magnitude of 1.2425 - 1.2477 for the time being.

hong kong nt 07:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- likely to see 1.260 euro before early USD rebound resume...

Barcelona JP 07:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 07:49 GMT February 27, 2004
CHF/USD should to now, if it does, @ 1,2660

CHF/USD should top now, if it does, @ 1,2660

Wellington am 07:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
long USD/JPY 109.00. take 110.50

Barcelona JP 07:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
CHF/USD should to now, if it does, @ 1,2660

ıst sez. 07:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Raden masandi,
I agree with Paris. frd
I remeber your post only 24 hours before.And you surely said gbp up and eur up while Melburn Quindex and Dallas GEB insisting down trend despite high rate(1,2650-90 &1,89 levels).
Yesterday you changed your view and said eur and gbp will drop.And today your post said up trend.....
I m sorry If I wrong remeber
Paris absoultly rite, dear frd.

usa Mayor Mac Cheese 07:48 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Mac Short squeezing on Mac Euro.

Rivonia PipPirate 07:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:28 Thanks for the forcasts.

Sydney bl 07:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex
what's your view on EUR/USD

Euroland 000 07:41 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I know what he means Raden, sometimes, I'm sorry to say that, but sometimes, you are really next to the door... Too much subjective affirmations, not objective suggestions.....
But I like you anyway..
Good Luck and Good Trade, to all of you.

hong kong nt 07:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- aud trades within 10 & 50 day ma, 7810-7680, exit early short, see too many commodity shorts...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:36 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Paris 07:18 GMT February 27, 2004
if you don't like that or not can be used by you, please close your eyes or don't read that or againts that view for your trade. your statement is not fair for me. thank you.
your statement is really bargage. you get big loss in trade and then judge me?
??????????????????????????????????????????????

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hello !!
seen gbp/usd still valid to get 1.8744 to get key answer of trend direction.
also eur/usd to get 1.2526 minimum.

beijing road 07:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Bought eur/usd at 1.2449 stop at 20 with target open and cancell my order.

lugano rob roy 07:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
closed euch here at 1.5760, really boring.
Sold again aud usd at 0.7710 s/l 0.7755

Ldn Hat 07:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP/USD at 1.8613 and stop at 1.88 target 1.8520 IMHO

Barcelona JP 07:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Good morning!!

Just an early and fast thought ( I'm at work).

As far as eur/usd 1,2380 holds, the pair will go up to 1,2632 in an ABC rally. Then, It will go south again to news lows.

Paris 07:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:16 GMT

stop the garbage!!!!!!!!!

Kamensk Andy 07:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab - maybe your 109.05 oda will be filled now...

hong kong nt 06:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- GBP/JPY is doing fine, drop some 200 pips from 205.5...

hong kong nt 06:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 06:44 GMT -- thanks but it maybe too early to say before positions are closed. good trades...

Ldn 06:52 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: NZD/USD, down at 0.6833, has in past hour broken minor uptrend line from last week's low (which came in at 0.6855), a near-term bear signal; it also triggered minor symmetrical triangle on hourly chart targeting 0.6761 in next day or two reuters

LAX-LGB SNP 06:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
letting all mid-range trades run (despite rollovers !) since i'm anticipating further USD strength to continue next week baring any unforeseen circumstances ... why pay the spread again, huh ?

Shanghai BC ... L.A. Igrok - thank you for your generosity :-)

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is having problem to overcome the projected resistance at 1.2451 of 22-day cycle and 1.2439 in the daily cycle.

Dallas GEP 06:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
BTW NT, that was a GREAT trade suggestion on Aussie Short form .7710. I didn't take it because I thought it would move too slow (WRONG!!!)

Dallas GEP 06:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Back a little later guys

Det tm 06:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Anybody see Pascal Lamy on CNN tonight? Did a search on him and below is part of a N.Y. Times article. GL & GT.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 26 —The European Union's trade commissioner told senior lawmakers on Thursday that the United States would face $4 billion in sanctions starting Monday because Congress had failed to eliminate overseas tax shelters for American exporters that were declared illegal by the World Trade Organization.

The pain will be felt primarily by American farmers and manufacturers. The Europeans will begin imposing tariffs on agricultural goods, leather products, paper, steel, nuclear reactors, machinery, carpets, clothing and other goods that are directly competitive with thier own products.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
I will do this trade strategy follow 100%.
I am sorry..still can not send to many address since I send big file. maybe be blocked by you. I don't want send that chart picture again (I am worry disturb you) bt now I will send file +/- 10 kb like this :

Trade strategy for today 27 February 2004
All numbers here is BID Number

GBP/USD
Flat on wide ranging.
a. Buy 1.8425 tgt 1.8595 stp 1.8410
b. Buy 1.8341 tgt 1.8528 stp 1.8325
c. Buy 1.8209 tgt 1.8425 stp 1.8190
d. Buy 1.8146 tgt 1.8380 stp 1.8330

e. Sell 1.8725 tgt 1.8683 stp 1.8735
f. Sell 1.8743 tgt 1.8697 stp 1.8755
g. Sell 1.8778 tgt 1.8725 stp 1.8790
h. Sell 1.8803 tgt 1.8743 stp 1.8815
i. Sell 1.8815 tgt 1.8745 stp 1.8825
j. Sell !.8884 tgt 1.8803 stp 1.8898
k. Sell 1.8964 tgt 1.8842 stp 1.8975
l. Sell 1.9012 tgt 1.8884 stp 1.9025
m. Sell 1.9073 tgt 1.8925 stp 1.9085
n. Sell 1.9114 tgt 1.8964 stp 1.9125
o. Sell 1.9155 tgt 1.8990 stp 1.9170

EUR/USD
Flat on wide ranging
a. Sell 1,2526 tgt 1.2491 stp 1.2540
b. Sell 1.2532 tgt 1.2598 stp 1.2540
c. Sell 1,.2571 tgt 1.2526 stp 1.2585
d. Sell 1.2579 tgt 1.2532 stp 1.2590
e. Sell 1.2612 tgt 1.2557 stp 1.2630
f. Sell 1.2657 tgt 1.2592 stp 1.2670
g. Sell 1.3042 tgt 1.2872 stp 1.3050
h. Sell 1.3070 tgt 1.2891 stp 1.3085

i. Buy 1.2366 tgt 1.2498 stp 1.2310
j. Buy 1.2345 tgt 1.2480 stp 1.2310
k. Buy 1.2322 tgt 1.2460 stp 1.2310
l. Buy 1.2258 tgt 1.2415 stp 1.2210
m. Buy 1.2238 tgt 1.2400 stp 1.2220
n. Buy 1.2118 tgt 1.2402 stp 1.2105
o. Buy 1.2088 tgt 1.2288 stp 1.2075
p. Buy 1.2045 tgt 1.2258 stp 1.2030
q. Buy 1.2022 tgt 1.2240 stp 1.2010

My best regards,
Raden Mas

Melbourne Qindex 06:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to penetrate through 1.2425* in Curve Set B.

Melbourne Qindex 06:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to penetrate through 1.2525* in Curve Set B.

Melbourne Qindex 23:10 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.2100 ... 1.2223 // 1.2254 ... 1.2346 - (1.2377) - 1.2408 - 1.2439 - 1.2470 - 1.2500 - 1.2531 // 1.2562 ...

Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is now consolidating between 1.2386 - 1.2451 (Set A). The odds are goo that the market will tackle 1.2321 in the next move. The mid-point reference of 1.2191* - 1.2451*, and 1.2321* is a quantised level in Set B.


Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The following 22-day cycle are now governing the downward trending movement of the market.

Set A : ... // 1.2191* - 1.2256 - 1.2321 - 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Set B: ... // 1.2321* - 1.2347 - 1.2373 - 1.2399 - 1.2425* - 1.2451 - 1.2477 - (1.2503) - 1.2529* // ...


shanghai bc 06:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

China grew average 10% gdp each year for more than two decades while outsiders have been worried about its imminent collpase every year all along since 1980..24 years is too long a time to lose a bet evry year for any punter..It may finally collapse when its bubble becomes too large at some stage..But that may be a few decades away from now on..Till then,orrections from time to time to these 10% gdp each year is as necessary as a coffee break..

Jakarta JacK 06:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Can someone list the opening and closing hour of major market (Tokyo, London, New york, etc) in GMT? Thanks

Dallas GEP 05:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that level is actually 1.8615/20 level.

Dallas GEP 05:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
POUND, A break down thru of 1.8625 and we should see 1.8600 (possible bounce UP from there)

I get the feeling the pound will be the catalyst for the next set of currency moves and IF that is the case, it won't probably start happening until an hour or so before London.

Van cy 05:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja :I have a feeling that the expanding in China is just begin to a new round/generation

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:42 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Van cy 05:35 GMT February 27, 2004

could be, then maybe its all smoke and mirrors. I have no firm view all I am saying is that it has a similar feel to before

Dallas GEP 05:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Well stalling again it seems!!! Market is very thin.

Van cy 05:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja :China's economy is much more health than ever before if you have time to experience within China

Dallas GEP 05:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Eur/JPY and GBP/JPY shorting is keeping a lid on USD/JPY right now for the time being.

Dallas GEP 05:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
40 minutes, missed it by 10 minutes boys!!! LOL

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
you are welcome

The whole China thing is so much like the Asia hype of 1994-96. Then we were told how much investment was going on in Asia and that there was going to be all this infrastructure spending blah blah blah....... then of course the wheels fell off 1997-98

I wonder if there might be a big pullback in China soon as well. It certainly would be the event no-one was expecting (which tends to be the way these things happen)

As they say "sell hysteria and buy weakness"

Ldn 05:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Ge11Ja thank you also for the reply agree whole heartedly .

Ldn 05:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Just one third (7 out of 21) of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect interest rates will be raised next week by the RBA. Result comes despite strong credit growth in January, after hawkish jawboning. Economists say RBA likely content to wait for now allowing time for signs of cooling off in housing sector to develop. RBA board meets on Tuesday

Shanghai BC, the above should help to bring the Aud to a reasonable level - so they will continue to invest in it.
thanks for the reply.

Sydney Ge11Ja 05:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 04:46 GMT February 27, 2004

Uridashi bond originate from Japan and the issue there is that at 84.00-85.00 he currency is probably a tad too high for Japanese investors. Even with the int rate differential a lot of the Japanese investors feel it is not to compensate them for the currency risk ie its very easy for the aud to fall 5% in a week and wipe out most of the int rate differential between Japan and Oz

The Chinese front could be the big thron in the Oz side. They have been huge buyers last 12 months but with a few question marks hanging over the Chinese miracle that might be the catalyst for a big cleanout of short to medium term longs. I would watch for an interest rate hike in China to set that off.

I still believe that the risk for the Oz is downside currently. I dont share the view we go to 0.8200 or 0.8500




Miami OMIL 05:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
This is what I call incubation time. You have your plans and now you must wait. I am still bias towards the correction of this eur/usd. I still believe that we shall test the 1.2350-30 one more time before any move to test the top again but things can change in a heartbeat so you have to be nimble. Many views I see here in the forum and that is good. This is when this forum shines at it’s best. My recommendation at this time is stick to your plans with your stops in place in case it turns against you. The numbers I posted before are still good so I won’t take any more space at this time. Good luck to everyone and if you win or loose today what really matters is that you survive for another fight. The market is always here with opportunity to win or loose all the time IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

shanghai bc 05:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

LDN -- Good afternoon..Aussie assets is one of the main assets in China's portfolio for many good reasons..Australia has the real asset mountains and wells unlike fiat money mountains..But China may slow down a bit its accumulation process for the coming weeks till Aussie assets and commodity prices correct to reasonable levels..Australians invest more in China than in USA while China is Australia's most important trading partner by now..And that implies Chinese are one of the main Aud/Usd traders in the market too..Fwiw..

Singapore Sfx 05:03 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
farmacia 04:40 - cheers .. will email once jay's back later in the day .. thanks & good luck.

Saihat 04:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
FOR DEMO

sell gbpusd 1.8720 .......stop 1.8745

buy 1.8590.......stop 1.8550

Ldn 04:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc , you will have notice Gold coast Martin mentioned something about the chinese possibly cutting back on Uridashi Bonds in the not too distant future , have you heard anything on the grapevine cheers

melbourne farmacia 04:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 04:12 GMT February 27, 2004
Afternoon - it's a visual thing, i can't explain over forum, you would need to see my chart. Email v jay.

hong kong nt 04:39 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ab -- suggest to sell aus at 7710/20, stop 7750/60, aim 7550/60. good trades...

hk ab 0.66 04:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
poor, no chance to long dlr/jpy at fig.

Dallas GEP 04:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
COULD be, within 30 minutes, we will no longer be bored!!!

Dallas GEP 04:34 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yes AB, the Best of the Best have joined us tonight. It would also be nice to have NoodyG who is ALWAYS listening, LA Mel Tokyo Jon, as well as noted others. You KNOW who you are!!!!

NYC YIPPEE 04:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
There will be more bumps in the road during this long dollar sell off.. However, all those levels that now seem impossible have a better chance to be a reality.

GBPUSD 2.00
EURUSD 1.35
AUDUSD .8500

All possible.

shanghai bc 04:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good afternoon..Good trades..

London 04:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Analysts say that a break below 7640 Aussie would see
longer-term players start to liquidate and result in an accelerated move towards 7500/50 support. The short-term risk for the AUD/USD is for a move lower

Dallas GEP 04:28 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF and USD/CAD are still pipping up along with USD/JPY

Dallas GEP 04:27 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Road we may be thinking along the same lines. I have a TAKE profit on these Euro Shorts @ 1.2414 (ASK) now. If it BREAKS down thru I will add MORE shorts BELOW 1.2400

ICT ML 04:25 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
here is food for thought....take it for what it is....the stochastic trend cycle on my daily cable chart move up from 1.5615 has been broken, there is daily MACD and RSI bearish divergence...and the KEY S/R pattern level for the move is 1.8450-1.8550 area.....a strong sustained move below this level, and it could be a blood bath.....add to that my monthly chart that is at extremes in overbought levels not seen in 25 years.....and you have a bomb waiting to be set off......all that needs to happen is Soros telling CNBC he feels "the Pound is overvalued".....LOL

BUT>>>>>it could just be reloading for yet another blast up to 2.XXXx levels....been suckered into selling this same setup many times the past 8 months.......So be aware if buying cable on dips, that holding on to a losing position could be a very stupid thing to do right now.

Having said all that, I am still pretty bullish, but not being stubborn about it.

KL KL 04:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia -- You mean Cable take down...towards 1.84xx??? or up towards 1.9xx....in view of inflation report and possible interest hike in May. Would Forex people factor it in now or later??

Dallas GEP 04:23 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Quickest kick would be MOF in on BID on USD/JPY to take out 110. Will it happen??? I think it will happen at sometime and it seems more likely it would happen in Asian timeframe or LATE in the day in US session.

hk ab 0.66 04:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Gep// we really have many big names sitting in gvi today:)

bc// Good morning, and good trades.

Dallas GEP 04:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF has found it's base support it seems at the 1.2660 line and is pipping up from here. Could be nothing BUT.................May be getting some subtle signs of movement. USD/CAD's level is more usd bullish perhaps than the other pairs right now. If USD/CHF breaks 1.2680 then the waiting MAY be over for movement. I dunno maybe all this is BS!!!! WTH????

beijing road 04:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Place buy order of EUR/USD at 1.2408 stop at 1.2370 with open target.

shanghai bc 04:15 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   

Gold fell through 100 dma and the neckline with possible target heading for 380 level..Given its lead over Aud and Euro since 2001 as the main hedge against falling Dollar,it is a reasonably safe bet that Aud and Euro have some more room to correct before Gold finds some solid support around 200 dma..Fwiw..

Singapore Sfx 04:12 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 04:09 GMT February 27, 2004

Could u please explain " when base line crosses trend line cable takes off.." .. thanks very much.

Perth pm 04:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Something must be brewing today/night, can't remember having seen so many big names on line at this hour....working the 24/48 hours shift are you ? GL GT to all

melbourne farmacia 04:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Covered half gbp at 1.8645 as posted before fwiw.
ps - when base line crosses trend line cable takes off.. watch the next hour of so. GT

GA TJ 04:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ML, Your Stochs, my EMA's, though in RSI 7 and 14 on 15 min and 30 min charts = potential replay of last night on Cable.

Key word is potential.

Gen dk 04:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

cerete juandavid 04:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ok, will anything happen on this asian session i getting really bore, can anyone give some insight on gbp? for asian session???, specifically if i should wait for anything to happen or just go to sleep already

Stockholm za 04:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
beijing road .....NO green light....it`s just trying to develop a hourly bullish bias........
Happy trades

nyc sa 04:01 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
meant 25 bp cut in june ,sorry for the typo.

Dallas GEP 04:00 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yippe in regards to your comments, great observation, too much over thinking kills instinctive trading. We can easily over analyse ourselves and that's when mistakes are made.

ICT ML 03:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Yippster.....still bullish GBP myself...but other players don't seem to feel that strong about it right now...LOL

nyc sa 03:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Euro : "scope for disappointment as futures are already pricing in 0.65% odds of a 25% bp cut in june meeting " , rate cut unlikely soon as this would dent credibility and expect more of the euro roller coaster we have seen since the beginning of the year ,(paraphrasing GlobalMarkets analysts here ).

beijing road 03:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP : thanks.

NYC YIPPEE 03:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ICT

Still bullish. .Not as much as before though.

beijing road 03:54 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za : haha, you are correct. I mean on 30' and 1h chart.

Dallas GEP 03:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Clam = CALM

Dallas GEP 03:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Road, I got NUTHIN now. Don't have a buy signal, don't have a sell signal, NUTHIN. Clam before the storm????

Dallas GEP 03:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, It reminds me of Roller Derby with Flyers and Jammers and everybody is trying to kill everybody else!!!!

Stockholm za 03:50 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 03:43.... You must define your range ..
ie.. 10-20......80 >> 1000 pips There is diffrent buy signals for diffrent needs....... lol
Which one ??

Dallas GEP 03:49 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdez. Asia has been open for almost 4 hours now. It is lunchtime there

beijing road 03:46 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
ml: you said, "Fridays are great sport this year"!,haha

ICT ML 03:44 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yippee...does the quote "I'm so bullish euro its silly" still describe your mood?

beijing road 03:43 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Any1 got buy signal of eur/usd plz? thanks.

Quito Valdez 03:36 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Asia about to open...hold yer breath.

hk ab 0.66 03:35 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
placed limit dlr/jpy 109.05 long till London session.

ICT ML 03:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yippee...I hear ya man.......spent all Sept-Oct selling spikes on cable...because i had a bias stuck in my head from all the $$$ made doing it in June-July...really a stupid couple months on my part.

It NEVER occurred to me that cable was in a real vertical uptrend move...until I censored near lost my shirt selling tops and had to step back and look fresh.....thank god for discovering weekly and monthly charts/:->

So now, I play the S/R patterns, and if they break, time to go the other way...still have a view, but it is not written in stone anymore....LOL...and going into the London session, I feel a raid on the upside stops is brewing...and will look to jump all over that if it happens...and then if it stalls, a hard reverse for the downside stops....but if wrong no biggie, just go with the flow....Fridays are great sport this year!

Quito Valdez 03:33 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Jay, have you considered a chat room? I've got one on my site from bravenet.com (free)...if you want I can post one online via my website for forex chat, which you could link to from here if you want...otherwise if you don't want to, I'll just forget it. What do U think?

melbourne O 03:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:51, good to see you are learning matey

Quito Valdez 03:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Texas// About the board you posted below...it isn't like this one, it's a standard message board only..this is more like a chat room even tho Jay doesn't want it to be a chat room (point well taken!). The fxsignals board is like you click on a message and read it where as this is raw posted messages, no clicks necessary. I like Jay's concept better although insite can be gained from fxsignals too...if people would use it!

New York DU 03:29 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Responding to YIPEE'S post, I find that conviction is needed to be truly successful...when I'm impatient in a trade, it means that I lack conviction...it means that I did not construct the trade in a realistic manner. If you are going to trade without conviction, then you must either be a dealer, or a scalper with a very mechanical approach.

Quito Valdez 03:24 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
yipee// I can see the worth in that. I'm guilty of the same thing at times...not stepping back to see the broader picture...too interested in pips at times. What a crazy 36 hours...good time to sit back and chew a twig.

New York DU 03:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Just a thought from an old commodity trader that a nascent pattern is emerging that builds some strength underneath the commodity currencies, independent of interest rate diffs. USD/CAD and AUD/USD may look $ positive for swing trade, but what happens if wheat joins soybeans and really takes off? That would be very AUD positive. On the oil side, USD/JPY is supported by Japanese dependence on imported energy; they are completely dependent on foreign sources. Any thoughts welcome.

Quito Valdez 03:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// how much $$ do you trade with usually...is that a kosher question?

SF MRZ 03:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$ - Friday's guess 1.2471
$/Jpy - Friday's Guess 108.22

Jay - I'm still waiting for the Yellow T-Shirt.

NYC YIPPEE 03:17 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Do any of you guys take a step back sometimes and just see yourselves making the trading decisions from a distance ? And then possibly gain more conviction, or see that the idea has a hole in it ? When I traded from the gut, this worked on many occasions. Remove yourself from the bubble. Sometimes you get caught up in the move, and see the market with a bias. That bias causes silly trading decisions to find a home in your portfolio. Try it. It reallly works, especially when you are on a winning or losing streak. It stops you from attempting to be right, to "beat the market" as to more importantly make money.

SF MRZ 03:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$ -- dollar suffering triggers @ 1.2455 targets 1.2471, 1.2505, 1.2536, 1.2555, 1.2570 -85, 1.2601-1.2635

Texas(Jskn.) PNB 03:11 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q,are you there?
TIA:-)

Dallas GEP 03:09 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Yep AB, you are probably right.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 03:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
just wondering,has anyone heard of this site? their comments look good though it's a new forum.

http://fxsignals.board.dk3.com/2/index.php

thanks for the help.

And Dr. Q,is shorting a good idea eur/usd today and if yes what should be a nice non-touchable SL.

TIA:-)

NYC YIPPEE 03:08 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
FWIW dollar will suffer now until late Friday.

Quito Valdez 03:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// makes sence to me amigo. Thnx!!

hk ab 0.66 03:04 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
gEP// those people are waiting for liquidity again....

Dallas GEP 03:02 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, under the scenario I just decsibed with sharks making a Euro Bull run, you might could see 1.2550 to 1.2570 BUT I think the sellers would come in force at that time and keep 1.26 from possibly printing.

SF MRZ 02:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Stops in place for a comfortable weekend.:> make big or little, it's all good.

Quito Valdez 02:56 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Thanx for the thought. Glad I took your advice and exited Eur possie for USD as I do think (given nothing interfears) supports in 1.27 range seem within reality. Made a whopping 5 piperoos so I didn't lose nuthin.

GEP, when do you see USD going back down to 1.26 again (if ever)?

hk ab 0.66 02:55 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
jf, mentioned somehting for Friday.

Dallas GEP 02:53 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Limited out on Long USD/CAD possie.

Dallas GEP 02:51 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
CAUTION PLEASE!!! There exists the possibility that with this being Friday and all that Sharks could run stops on these USD bull positions so stops need to be in place as you place orders and if you don't have stops on your existing possies, I would highly reccomend it. Whether or not this happens I STILL believe the BIAS on Euro and Pound are down so if we see a run up we probably will see a run down fairly soon after it just like the other day. Seems to me this is MORE likely in London session than Asia but be prepared for anything.

Quito Valdez 02:40 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Well OK folks, I'm back into USD from Euros as of this afternoon at 3:30 EST. made 5 pips...pathetic. When do you fellas see a new run for the Euro to say 1.26?

GA TJ 02:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
No guarantee but Cable is starting to set up for a repeat of last night. Still Short from last night and if tonight gives the opportunity I will add to it. If it is going to happen it will probably start around midnight - 1:00 am EST. Just a thought. Something to look for.

nyc sa 02:32 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Thnx Farmacia . I don't expect much to happen until NY time 8:30 when GDP -prelim is anounced consensus is 3.8 previous was 4%, that will tell the real dollar story .Traders will be cautious in the hours ahead unless news are leaked. Then u have the michigan sentiment at 9:45 which will determine the dollar trend. Some analysts are expecting GDP around 4% as the prior figure ,i.e, no change , in which case we'll go by technicals .

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 02:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
good morning my friends and sun !!
short term trade gbp/usd got 1.8637 as top.
price still on the way to get 1.8744 today.
also eur/usd 1.2517 maybe as top.
I will do for my saving position now until that numbers.

melbourne farmacia 01:38 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 01:30 GMT February 27, 2004
I don't plan to short anything at this stage. GBP target at 1.8645 if break then 1.8687. STOP at entry for now. GT

Melbourne Qindex 01:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The market is now consolidating between 1.2386 - 1.2451 (Set A). The odds are good that the market will tackle 1.2321 in the next move. The mid-point reference of 1.2191* - 1.2451*, and 1.2321* is a quantised level in Set B.


Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The following 22-day cycle are now governing the downward trending movement of the market.

Set A : ... // 1.2191* - 1.2256 - 1.2321 - 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Set B: ... // 1.2321* - 1.2347 - 1.2399 - 1.2373 - 1.2425* - 1.2451 - 1.2477 - (1.2503) - 1.2529* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:34 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels


... // 1.2549 - 1.2651 - 1.2752 // ...



The current expected trading range is 1.2651 - 1.2752 for the time being.

nyc sa 01:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/usd sorry for the typo .

melbourne 01:31 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
We may have seen the week high for the dollar.
dallas gep watch usd/chf 1.25, below 1.25 it's back to the recent range play while another attack at 1.27 from 1.25 will be dollar positive

nyc sa 01:30 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hi everybody , Farmacia what's ur target on GBD/USD? would u short it again once target hits ? thnx .

melbourne farmacia 01:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Rafe - If my 23:51 GMT post happens on euro ( long above 1.2480 ), then yes for swissy, that said my key level on swissy at this hour is 1.2640.
ps long gbp/usd from 1.8604 fwiw.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:22 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP//Check yours too.

hk ab 0.66 01:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
cad firm breaks at 1.35 is needed for further USD upmove.

May change camp from short to long if this doesn't happen.

hk ab 0.66 01:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
farmacia and nk, the dlr/jpy uptrend looks v. steep though.....

Dallas GEP 01:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne, is your view then also that we will have much higher eur/usd from here????

hk ab 0.66 01:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
nk// do you see eur/jpy has a greater potential than dlr/jpy?
am short from 13630.

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia on the USD/CHF you see 1.2494 today as well?

also check your mail in a few mins.

melbourne 01:07 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
the next target for usd/chf from here is 1.2550, not 1.2750

Melbourne Qindex 00:57 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 00:37 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 00:26 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
TP on the USD/JPY long I have is 109.80 but I may move that if a 110.00 break shows to be imminent. TP on USD/CAD longs is 1.3460, Euro shorts TP is 1.2340 for now.

Van jv 00:21 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
seems to me that USD/JPY advanced enough/ 109.60/ so that the Japs would not mind to see some very ST decline of USD---neutral at this time

Dallas GEP 00:20 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Let me modify my statement somewhat in that while 1.2480 is key I also believe that @ 1.2520/30 print would still not negate the short bias on the Euro right now.

mtl gg 00:18 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
hmmm arent we at 1.244XX on euro....... Did I miss something??

Dallas GEP 00:16 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
IMO the Euro probably is MORE likely to short in Asia than in London. I also like Faramacia think 1.2480 is key but overall bias is STILL short.

Miami OMIL 00:13 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
GEP I believe th eur/usd short will get even better until we see the test of the 1.2350-30 area IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 00:10 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Well thus far POUND has been good for me today with (+48, +54, -20, and +30 PIPS for net +112 PIPS). Euro shorts were good for +77 PIPS so far. Last possie I took was usd/chf SHORT from 1.2677 but it stopped at breakeven. I have euro lots still short from 1.2460 and USD/CAD longs from 1.3419 working. No Pound possies right now but I do have a usd/jpy LONG from 109.50 working as well.

Miami OMIL 00:06 GMT February 27, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Qindex for your time and effort.
Farmacia I was thinking the same thing but I was looking at 1.2545-50 as the number that might extend the bull rally a bit longer for eur/usd. Thanks for your valuable comments. (/;-> GT

 




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