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Forex Forum Archive for 02/28/2004

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shanghai bc 23:48 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   

VALDES -- Yuan may rise in time in coming decades..But the initial reaction once it is floated may be the opposite to what many believe..Chinese savers have only 10% of their savings in Usd,some half trilllion Dollars at present..What if they excercise their new found freedom and all rush to buy Usd,Chinese favourite, up to 50% of their savings as their HK cousins do at present..2 trillion Dollars moving from Yuan to dollar may shoot Dollar to the Moon pushing Yuan to the rock bottom..That is unless EU folks manage to persuade Chinese folks that Euro is a better option than Dollar..Then, in all likelihood,Aud,Cad and Nzd will have a very strong support too..How many tillions will send Aud and cousins to the sky..Chinese are wrecking a havoc in commodity market but the next round of havoc will be in forex market..Just another view from China..

LAX-LGB SNP 23:41 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT
1.2439/43 as i type ;-)

Melbourne Qindex 22:55 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Helsinki iw 20:39 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
Livingston,is that in price or volume terms?

Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
Say Guys just prior to closing I made an adjustment to my Eur/USD short possie in that I TOOK out the TP and reverse at 1.2480 and adjusted the TP to 1.2440. This from the short from 1.2496 (stop 1.2517 ASK).

The reason I did this is that I think we we will gap DOWN over the weekend. If I am Wrong then not much lost but if I am right, there is a great deal to gain.

It has been posted here RE: OBL saga and I am really begining to think as some others that the US may be timing his capture for political reasons. This would furthur assume that US has him pinned down with no chance for escape so that in itself is a little far fetched but it wouldn't completely surprise me. I just don't know really but there's PLENTY of smoke reagrding this OBL issue so there's fire somewhere in my view. USD would at least intially spurt pretty good with this news so have your stops at least somewhere in sight.

Livingston nh 17:33 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
EU - overall trade with US expanded in 2004 - the goods deficit of the US with Germany went from 35 bio to over 39 bio (about a 13% increase) - deficit with EU increased by over 9 bio // Why is Belgium complaining about the dollar - their DEFICIT w/ the US declined by 40% (US has a trade surplus w/ Belgium)

Would the EUR zone be happier if the US reduced its trade deficit with China but expanded its deficit with EU?? Of Course -

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:47 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
Can we trade Chinese Yuan yet? The Yuan is 40% undervalued according to one report I read, been pegged to the USD too long on the USD sliding board. Maybe we'll see a usd/yuan curve like the usd/eur only faster? Let us know your thoughts.

Melbourne Qindex 12:36 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 11:36 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

HK [email protected] 11:22 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
FITTING to an Iranian mentality to my best knowledge hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!

Iranian Radio Reports Bin Laden Captured.....
"Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,"

Pakistani Army spokesman Gen. Shaukat Sultan told The Associated Press that the report is completely untrue. "That information is wrong," he said.

Shamim Shahed, the bureau chief for "The Nation," an English-language newspaper in Peshawar, was cited by the director of IRNA's Pashtun radio service as the source of the bin Laden report.

But Shahed denied in an AP interview ever telling the Iranian news service that bin Laden had been captured.

"I never said this, but I have for the last year been saying that he is not far away. He is within their (the Americans) reach, and they can declare him arrested anytime," Shahed said. He gave no evidence to back up that claim.

GVI john 11:10 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
Headlines on DJ
UBL captured in Pakistan -- Iran Radio
Pakistan Army denies UBL capture -- Iran Radio

London 09:25 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   

Schroeder calls for weaker euro

Atlanta 09:09 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is expected to discuss the issue of the dollar's weakness against the euro over lunch with U.S. President George W. Bush, a German government source said on Friday"It was agreed upon to discuss this over lunch," the source told Reuters.
Bush and Schroeder met on Friday morning and briefly took a few questions from reporters, but the subject of currencies did not come up in that exchange.
German officials say Schroeder wants to press Bush for help in stopping the slide of the dollar against the euro.
Schroeder has voiced concern about the impact exchange rate swings have on world trade, and on Wednesday suggested the European Central Bank ought to consider lowering interest rates to curb the rampant euro.
The euro has soared by 46 percent against the dollar since March 2002, with a substantial portion of this gain racked up in the past six months.
European exporters, with German firms at the forefront, complain strength in the common European currency is making their goods too expensive in crucial foreign markets and they want the dollar's drop to stop.
U.S. officials, while sticking to the mantra that America supports a strong dollar, also say open, competitive foreign exchange markets are the best way to set currency levels.
A meeting of the Group of Seven in Florida earlier this month warned against excessive currency volatility.
But the euro/dollar rate remains within a couple of U.S. cents of its position before that statement and near its all-time high against the U.S. currency.

Atlanta 09:07 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
IMF warns euro rise could dampen Belgian recovery
The IMF on Friday forecast a moderate recovery for Belgium's economy, which has struggled with a long period of sluggish growth, but cautioned that an unexpected further rise in the euro could dampen the upturn

Atlanta 09:00 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday strong economic growth should soon produce more jobs but he warned U.S. manufacturers they should not count on a Chinese currency revaluation being a major boon for them.

"Very sluggish" U.S. job growth would pick up when exceptional strong rates of productivity, or output per worker, slowed and that may be occurring, Greenspan said in answer to questions following an address to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

"I would say that we could get a pop in employment almost any time," Greenspan said, since the the economy had been growing rapidly enough that companies cannot indefinitely boost output with existing workforces.

"Job creation occurs when when you no longer can dip into the system of potential productivity advances to substitute for labor," Greenspan said, adding "My own judgment is that at some point that is almost certainly going to happen, indeed it is conceivable it may be happening now."

hk ab 0.66 07:38 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
nt// Thanks and please send my regards to your babe.

i wonder when will we see the anticipated move arranged by bc.

Melb mpfx 06:45 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw some fib #

Previous weekly Close ~ 1.2491
Range in Pips ~ 340

Previous weekly High ~ 1.2710
Fib Retrace 25% ~ 1.2625
Fib Retrace 33.3% ~ 1.2596
Fib Retrace 38.2% ~ 1.2580
Fib / Pivot 50% ~ 1.2540
Fib Retrace 61.8% ~ 1.2500
Fib Retrace 66.6% ~ 1.2483
Fib Retrace 75% ~ 1.2455
Previous weekly Low ~ 1.2370

Melbourne Qindex 05:55 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

beijing road 04:58 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
If the Fri. low of eur has been made, there is clear "higher low and higher high" price patten since 01-19-2004. so the uptrend is still intact.

hong kong nt 04:49 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
ab -- here's my babe's weekly range forecast

eur 1.220-1.255
yen 108.0-109.5
eurjpy 134.0-136.5

gbp 1.835-1.880
gbpjpy 201.0-204.0

eurgbp 0.660-0.670

chf 1.250-1.285
chfjpy 85.0-86.5

aud 0.760-0.780
audjpy 83.0-84.5

nzd 0.675-0.693
cad 1.330-1.360

xau 388-400


hong kong nt 01:12 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
ab -- USD's weekly range- Fri's cls x 0.99 - Fri's cls x 1.02

good trades...

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:34 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD. 1.2499 seems to be a type of strong pivot point but for what time frame I am trying to figure out, so I can get the extreme ends of the range.


london 00:22 GMT February 28, 2004 Reply   
melbourne O very good long dollar exhaustion call.


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