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Forex Forum Archive for 02/29/2004

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Miami OMIL 23:59 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone a bit early for the arguments and accusations to start donít you think. On the eur/usd front next retracement is in 1.2545-50 and 1.2580-85 area and the resistance is also in the 1.2580-85 area. Once this resistance is broken then the bulls will have power again to take it back up to the 1.26s even the 1.27s area. As time passes and the 1.2350-30 area is not broken the bulls mount up a bigger offense and the bears loose control of the situation IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Pecs Andras 23:59 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, my last post was addressed to:
belden mb 23:52 GMT February 29, 2004

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:58 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
farmacia// check your mail right away.

Pecs Andras 23:58 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 23:54 GMT February 29, 2004
Why do you get so mad, mate?
I think it was a nice early morning joke. Nothing rude in it (unlike in your comment).
I f you don't like it, just read on, and relax. LOL

Dublin CK 23:54 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:34 GMT February 29, 2004

Very funny - LOL

belden mb 23:52 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
farmacia: ur full of s##t

beijing road 23:47 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
I hope EUR has finished correction.

melbourne farmacia 23:45 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 23:38 GMT February 29, 2004
Cheers Andras, just another trading perspective to think about.

Pecs Andras 23:44 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Lehman Brothers analyst sees a rate cut by ECb on Thursday

dc fxq 23:44 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:34 GMT

belongs on the political forum not here!

Perth 23:43 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
RBA won't raise interest rates, says ANZ, which could take "some of the recent steam out of the AUD/USD even though the market is priced that way." It expects further selling around 0.7750 today; says selling interest in NZD/USD remains on topside around 0.6900, but these will both be tested during the week. Support today at 0.6840 should hold, ANZ

beijing road 23:39 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

Pecs Andras 23:38 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:34 GMT February 29, 2004
Hi Paul.
Thanks a lot for the great charts and ideas

Sana'a 23:37 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Any views on USD/CAD? I was hoping it will go up ahead of the BoC's meeting Tuesday. It seems to be heading in the opposite direction.

Sydney bl 23:35 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex it's ok and thank you

melbourne farmacia 23:34 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
New wires : Rumors Circulating - G W Bush learns how to spell Bin Laden... and is up for a Academy Award later today for best supporting Actor in a comedy role..

Pecs Andras 23:34 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Are you around mate?
My chart is now showing a spike down to 2430 on Euro.
Did you get filled?

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:33 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Any strong views out there on Japanese fiscal year end? I appreciate USD/YEN will be quiet as BOJ in the market but what about EUR/YEN, AUD/YEN and GBP/YEN?

Melbourne Qindex 23:31 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 23:09 GMT - I am not posting my analysis on EUR/JPY at this moment.

GA TJ 23:23 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Bin Laden capture rumors will continue to circulate until one or more of the following occours:

A: He is actually captured or killed and there is 24 hour news coverage for 5 days straight
B: Presidential Election has been decided. If history repeats that could be next January
C: People responsible for spreading the rumors finally figure out there is no reward for doing so
D: Traders caught on the wrong side of the market exit their positions
E: The next big news story comes along
D: China floats its currency
F: Bill Clinton disbands his intern harem
G: Hillary Clinton gets elected President. (thats a chilling thought)

Until then recognize that these are just that, rumors. Temporarily moving the market a few pips for a very short time.

Just my opinion. Have been wrong, could be wrong and will be wrong in the future.

Sydney bl 23:23 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
london D according to my platform EUR/JPY low was 138.84

london D 23:17 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
What was the low in eurjy on friday after expiries?

Sydney bl 23:09 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex I have short position of EUR/JPY what's your view of this pair

Perth AS 23:00 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Bin Laden Capture Rumors Continue To Circulate

Perth AS 22:54 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Sydney (AP)Activity in Australia's manufacturing sector weakened sharply in February with the strength of the Australian dollar singled out as the cause.

The Australian Industry Group PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index fell to 51.0 points in February from 56.8 points in January.

"The fall in the performance of manufacturing activity in February is a wake up call for those who believe sustained economic growth is a given," said Heather Ridout, Australian Industry Group chief executive in a statement.

Activity in February contracted in the currency-sensitive sectors of food and beverages, textiles, clothing and footwear, wood products and furniture, as well as fabricated metal products, the survey showed.

The Australian dollar rallied to a seven-year high of US$0.8007 in February, before falling back. At 2226 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.7728.

February's outcome was a significant decline that was shaped by the impact of the rising Australian dollar on manufacturing and to a lesser extent the impact of higher interest rates, and some slowing in demand," Ridout said.

The weakness comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy making board prepares to meet Tuesday. The debate on interest rates is finely balanced with a consensus in favor of no change in interest rates this month.

Official interest rates were hiked in November and December by a total of 50 basis points. The official cash rate now stands a 5.25%.

The PMI is a seasonally adjusted national composite index based on the diffusion indexes for production, new orders, deliveries, inventories and employment.

Melbourne Qindex 22:44 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:42 GMT February 29, 2004
EUR/USD : The 44-day cycle references are functioning actively beside the 22-day cycle. The current expected trading range from curve A is .................. and the current expected trading range from curve B is ..................... See details in my page. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The following 22-day cycle are now governing the downward trending movement of the market.

Set A : ... // 1.2191* - 1.2256 - 1.2321 - 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Set B: ... // 1.2321* - 1.2347 - 1.2399 - 1.2373 - 1.2425* - 1.2451 - 1.2477 - (1.2503) - 1.2529* // ...

iom stan 22:39 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
London SS

do you really think the UK economy could stand even 2.00 to the $.

Perth AS 22:37 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
London SS the picture on the Dollar may change if Kerry gets in Power. Also numbers are improving in the states which call for a rate hike sooner rather than later

The center of economists' forecasts for payrolls to have increased by 125,000 in February and for the jobless rate to have held at 5.6%.

The Labor Department is due to issue the February employment report at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Friday.

. February ISM Manufacturing Index Seen 62.0 .

Economists will get fresh information on the national state of manufacturing activity in February and it's likely to show that the sector remained very healthy.
January Personal Income +0.5%, Consumption +0.4%

Economists look for a moderately strong increase in personal income and for another solid gain in consumer spending in January.

History states that things have to improve along with higher rates its just common sense.

Van jv 22:37 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
But will it widen where it counts, on longer term treasuries?

London SS 22:20 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Lets get this straight people, the interest rate differential btw UK and US WILL widen no doubt over the coming months in favour of sterling strength, although EUR may weaken due to possible ECB rate cut (unlikely this month i feel) which will pullback cable with it, only slightly, mid-term cable will get to $2.15-2.30 by end of the summer!!

Perth AS. 22:19 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Australian bond futures market was helped over weekend by article by RBA watcher Alan Mitchell in Australian Financial Review, say CSFB strategists. Mitchell played down speculation RBA to raise rates Wednesday after strong housing credit in January, saying annualized pace of credit growth slowing, fall in loan approvals points to further slowdown; with AUD still over 0.7700, RBA likely to wait for more information on housing, wider economy, before moving again, Mitchell said. But CSFB strategists retain view RBA to hike this week; note resilient weekend auction clearance rates

Perth AS 21:56 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Two interest rate hikes in late 2003 have hit Australia's building industry, with home buyers becoming more cautious, according to a survey published Monday. The Master Builders Australia's March quarter survey found business conditions deteriorated appreciably over the past three months, supporting recent data showing the construction sector is slowing. A total 56% of those surveyed indicated that new business orders were lower as a result of higher rates.
"The survey results should now provide comfort to the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) that the housing sector no longer represents a threat to the economy compared with last year and they should therefore leave interest rates on hold," MBA Chief Executive Wilhelm Harnisch said in a statement.
The RBA lifted the official cash rate by a total 50 basis points to 5.25% in November and December. According to the building survey, industry conditions weakened in the past three months with the index falling to 69.8 compared to 75.8 in the previous three months.


Madrid CAB 21:51 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
O=1.2446 C=1.2493 H=1.2508 L=1.2372

OK SZ 21:48 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
I got the numbers guys...thanks anyways

OK SZ 21:43 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
can someone please let me know the h, l, and close of the euro on friday? my charts are not working and need them to calculate some #'s..thanks

London 21:19 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Bit of early morning news for Asia

Lagging Europe may cut interest rates this week

Greenspan says U.S. jobs 'pop' possible soon

London 21:04 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

Economy Canada: To cut, but when to stop?
The coming week's economic calendar is light and will not provide too much insight into the direction of the economy. Building permits for January, to be released on Thursday, are expected to show a decline of 3.4 percent after the previous month's heady 12.8 percent rise, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

And with rate cut seen as a certainty, much of the attention will be on what Gov. Dodge says on his outlook for the economy.

Detroit efex 20:39 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

If you want a record of weekend data, open a game account at O***a***n***d***a. Even more, if it grabs you, open a real account and manage your trades over the weekend.

In any case, my point is that the broker mentioned provides weekend data, has for quite some time, and you need never again be in the position of wondering what happened over the weekend. Plus, when price starts moving early on Sunday (today, for instance, eurusd began moving just after 3:00 pm est) you can react in a timely fashion.

Hope this helps someone,


Teh IRFX 20:26 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
$ is going down?

Miami OMIL 20:00 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
I believe it is competition that made them open earlier GEP IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
OK Thanks Irish. To tell you the truth I am not sure why this platform is opening @ 2:00 EST now. Volume until Asia is usually ZILCH anyway. BAck in Asia guys.

Chicago Irish 19:53 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
GEP:Reason for spike was a report on Iranian radio later denied by Pakistan that OBL had been captured.

Dallas GEP 19:45 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Ain't that something Andras, Now you can make or lose money even when the market is CLOSED!!! LOL Back later guys

Pecs Andras 19:39 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
I see.
But they really do a replay. I know it only too well. Once I had a limit buy on cable with a 70 pip stop for the week end. It was nicely executed, and so was the stop. LOL
At open on Sunday 5 PM price was back above my entry.

Dallas GEP 19:37 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Guys!!!

Dallas GEP 19:36 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Well I guess that's the key in this case IB range which there is no IB over the weekend!!!

prauge viktor 19:35 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Gep1,2486-1,2519 on my plat.f

Dallas GEP 19:35 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Andras, that's why I was asking about over the weekend lows on Euro. They are supposed to do a replay of the low and high over the weekend to apply to stops and limits and I was told that my limit @ 1.2450 wasn't even approached so that was my reason for my question.

Singapore Sfx 19:31 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
GEP - 1.2498-1.2508 - so far interbank trading range .. but thats just interbank.. fwiw.

Pecs Andras 19:30 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
I do not see any spikes either.
BTW, do you know that one of your platforms has new opening hours as of Febr. 29?
They are open now

Dallas GEP 19:27 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Hmmmm....Apparently according to my platform there was virtually NO GAP on the euro over the weekend YET I am showing from some sources that 1.2440 was printed.

Can anyone shed any light on this please????


lugano rob roy 18:15 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Moved s/l at 1.2605. Really convinced this week we'll break 1.2330, but sharks could try to catch some stops in the first dealing hours tonight. Lift s/l in aud $ short at 0.7805 for same reasons.

Global-View 16:56 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Some brief excerpts from the current Trendways (Athens) weekend analysis. For a complete linear and model analysis in EUR/USD and the other major pairs CLICK HERE to subscribe or ask for a two week free trial.

"Personally I am not satisfied by what we saw on Friday. Although not a fan of linear analysis, I had expected the Dollar to do much better after breaking medium term support lines against the EUR and the GBP. In the first case the break admittedly was a very marginal one and further downside could have been limited as long as the consolidation low 1.2330 stayed in place. In the second case, however, the linear break in cable was followed by a strong 100 pip follow through selloff i.e. it was anything but marginal, therefore the late afternoon GBP comeback, when it made a new high for the day and closed 70 pips stronger than the day before, certainly can't be called Dollar strength, especially if we take into account that the USD finished weaker than Thursday across the board.

The EUR/USD weekly chart shows the WBL now at 1.2582. With regard to the support line discussed earlier, although the daily line was only marginally violated, the weekly line was clearly broken as it was coming in at 1.2455 last week. This broken line comes in at 1.2522 this week and might act as a resistance now, however a move well above it would put EUR/$ back above the previously broken line and thus put linear analysis in jeopardy. The WBL as I said will be 1.2582, which leaves a better safety distance in model terms. The very wide long term upward sloping channel has its lines coming in at 1.1475 and 1.3030 with the
theoretical mid line around 1.2250."

Saihat 15:59 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
for demo

SELL gbpjpy at 203.90.....Stop at 204.50

hong kong nt 15:19 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 07:38 -- euro may have initial rise to 20-day ma before breaking last week's low...

hong kong nt 14:18 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 12:28 -- thanks, hope to finish scaling out before start of evaporation...

shanghai bc 12:28 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

NT 09:12 --Any market ,be it real estate market or forex market,is all about transfering money from the masses to a few lucky ones in the long run..In most real property speculation cases,the masses make money ,a lot of money,but the money stays as paper profit and evavorate before they realize their paper profit into real hard cash..In most forex speculation cases,the masses barely survive a few years thanks to lack of knowledge of the market and the deadly leverage..But both types of speculators all serve their useful purposes in investment food chain contributing their hard earned money to the market in exchange for a dream ..

FRA 11:46 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
By keeping US interest rates too low Greenspan is inhibiting jobcreation. The production factor capital is too cheap compared to the production factor labor.More and more US companies are replacing the production factor labor by the production factor capital, hence Greenspans productivity miracle which is no miracle. This leads to outsoursing abroad , to job cut and to share buybacks but not to job creation. To create jobs interest rates should rise and the production factor capital should be priced by the market instead by an old central banker.

Wellington am 09:56 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply

"On Tuesday last week, the Nikkei suffered its biggest percentage loss since December, led by falls in exporter shares after a sudden rise in the yen toward 108 to the dollar. "

I had to do a double take when I read this. The Yen's been falling not rising. And this is from Forbes! Spare me.

Anyway, I'm currently shorting EUR/JPY. There's conflicting views on this, but welcome your thoughts.

hong kong nt 09:12 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:25 GMT -- given the remaining four-year time frame, just wonder how big this bubble may grow, an overshoot of 97' price level may look realistic ...

SG Jay 09:01 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Guys , what your view , should i short gbp/usd now ?

phils vl 07:34 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi folks

Wl be posting less frequently due to business comittments nx few months. Hardly possible now to trade intraday or intraweek.... wl stick to intermediate and mid-term.. less heavy lots but wider stops and wider TPs...

Eur/usd.. expect to retrace back up to ard 1.2660- 1.2760 before a slide to 1.17-1.20 in zigzag... placing limit sell entry ard 1.27 with stops over 150 pips

usd/cad ... expect it to short before up particularly below 1.3250.... looks like a failed inverted HS .... placing a limit buy entry at 1.3260 with tight 60 pip s/l and another at 1.3075 if seen s/l 40pips...

GL all

Ldn 07:07 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Will Dollar Buy Another Rally for Stocks?
A recovery of the dollar, at least, might stanch the flow of money into foreign markets and possibly attract some foreign capital into U.S. markets, Nachmany said.

shanghai bc 04:25 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Greater China Region is riding 2008 Beijing Olympics Bubble as far as real estate market goes..I guess the prices in HK,Macau,Beijing and Shanghai and coastal cities will rise at least till early 2008 and a big correction may set in which may last for several years..It is already far too expensive for ordinary folks in major cities..Good trades..

Venice 04:24 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Euro rise to $1.40

VENICE, Italy: The euro will continue to strengthen against the dollar and could reach $1.40 by the end of 2005, former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff said yesterday, urging the US Federal Reserve to take action.
“I think the euro could continue to appreciate, going up to $1.35 or $1.40 by the end of the next year,” Rogoff said

Melbourne Qindex 04:09 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hong kong nt 03:55 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
bc -- do you think the improving sentiment, huge liquidity plus zero rate will send the price of hong kong property price to the sky this year? many good trades...

HK [email protected] 02:51 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:33 GMT February 28

One of the factors mentioned for the capture of Bin Laden is an improvement of the weather in the area he is hiding.
So let us expect it somewhere in May. Gamble it around

Melbourne Qindex 00:52 GMT February 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


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