Forex Forum Archive for 03/1/2004

shanghai bc 23:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

Dollar is still in the process of bouncing for more upside in coming days..That is till long-term real money players see a good value in selling Dollars again..That may be below Gold 380 and Eur/Usd 1.20..In the meantime,buying Dollar on dips is still a preferred strategy..Fwiw..

Sydney Ge11Ja 23:47 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
morning all, with a strong chance that the RBA wont raise rates tomorrow might be time for a pullback on aud crosses. AUD/YEN and AUD/EUR all close to recent highs so as a relatively lower risk trade might want some small shorts going in to tomorrow's announcement

Ldn 23:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Relatively sharp retracement by AUD/USD, from high about 7770 overnight, keeps pair on downward path for eventual break of 0.7640, says Commonwealth Bank technical analyst John Gajewski. Today, pair should return to 0.7660, pullback to 0.7710 likely to follow. Later, AUD/USD should break through 0.7660, 0.7640 to trigger drop toward 0.7530. reuters

GVI john 23:41 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Bank of Canada
Meeting: March 2
O/N target: 2.50%
Last 3mo: 2.23%

Implied Futures:
JUN04: 2.080%
SEP04: 2.130%
DEC04: 2.270%

The Bank of Canada: The Bank of Canada lowered its target for overnight funds by 25bp to 2.50% at its January 20 meeting. Its rate cut announcement and update to the Monetary Policy report left the door open to additional rate cuts until the economy gathers significantly more forward momentum. The January BOC core rate of inflation was only up +1.5%. We feel the Bank of Canada will move sooner rather than later. A 25bp's cut in rates is likely on March 2.
more see GVI....

beijing road 23:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP: good evening, u r quite busy makeing money.

Dallas GEP 23:35 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Took Profit on eur/USD shorts from 1.2465 @ 1.2450 +15. Earlier Euro shorts still in play. Took Profit on USD/CAD shorts +18 pips.

Melbourne Qindex 23:34 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still a key reference :-


Melbourne Qindex 11:43 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : Partial Expansion of 44-day Cycle


Curve B : 1.2331* - 1.2376 - 1.2421 - 1.2466 - 1.2510


... // 1.2421 - 1.2444 - 1.2466 - 1.2488 - 1.2510 // ...

Dallas GEP 23:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Especially in Asia, watch eur/jpy carefully for clues as to EUR/USD level. Key levels on e/y are 135.80, 135.50 and 135.20 and ESPECIALLY 135.00.

Ga Lee 22:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
$/cad..ws also bumping up against its 200 day sma at that time..

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
and again, that "someone" pushed down the dlrcad right before daily close.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:46 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
BOJ--> Fed
MOF Folks --> Greensy ans Snowy?

Soon, we will see how Fed fight with the spect to buy USD, like what spect buy up yen?

just a 0.1 cent thought for early morning.

Who knew yen couldn't reach 160 but went to 105 2 years ago.......

GVI john 22:33 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION �Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2465�. $/yen 109.00
DJIA 10,678, +94 pts�NASDAQ 2,058, +28 pts
10-yr 3.99%, -2 bp�s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
The dollar traded a mixed to mostly higher session Monday. In New York the dollar took heart from the February ISM manufacturing Purchasing Manager�s Report. Even though the headline index fell from 63.6 in January to 61.4, the sub-component prices paid and employment indices soared higher. Both the stock and bond markets took these data as positive omens for the future of the economy and thus the dollar, but that enthusiasm faded over the session.

No immediate impact is expected to be seen in the employment data on Thursday and Friday. Also, I�m not certain that the rising prices paid figure is positive. Furthermore, the rise in oil prices is being passed into gasoline prices. This amounts to tax right off the top on the consumer. Fuel surcharges are appearing all over the place ranging from airline tickets to delivery services. They are also impacting utility bills. As one who survived the energy crisis of the seventies, we learned how pervasive the cost of energy is within the economy. The term �stagflation� was coined in those days and describes what happens when you have cost push inflation in a slowing economy.

I am shocked that Greenspan keeps commenting on the dollar, especially as he frequently comments in his Congressional testimony that he is not to comment on forex. Unless he is going batty, these comments are orchestrated with Treasury. My thought is that Snow is frustrated with the dollar improvement and that he is using the Fed chief as his spokesman for a lower dollar.

The Challenger Layoff survey on Tuesday is often a good leading economic indicator. FRB Governor Bernanke will speak after close. The most important economic release of the month is the employment figures for February set for release on Friday.

As for the Bank of Canada decision tomorrow, we feel a rate cut is virtual certainty. Be sure to check out the policy statement, it could signal yet another cut in the very near future. The RBA decision will be announced on Wednesday.
CALENDAR
TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 2004
23:00 GMT- AUS- RBA Meeting
23:30 GMT- JPN- 10-Yr JGB Auction
23:30 GMT- JPN- February Monetary Base
00:30 GMT- AUS- January Retail Trade, vs. -0.6%
05:00 GMT- JPN- Jan 19-20 BOJ Minutes
11:00 GMT- UK- 1Q04 CBI Distributive Trades Survey
11:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Unemployment Rate: vs. 8.8% in Dec
13:00 GMT- CDA- Industrial Price Index
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Challenger Layoffs
14:00 GMT- CDA- BOC Monetary Policy Decision

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 3, 2004
23:00 GMT- AUS- RBA Meeting Outcome
00:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q03 GDP, vs. +2.6% y/y
09:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Services PMI: vs. 57.3 in Jan
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Services PMI: vs. 59.8 in Jan
11:00 GMT- Jan Producer Prices: vs. -0.1% in Dec
UK- Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting begins
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
19:00 GMT- US- Fed�s Beige Book

THURSDAY, MARCH 4, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
00:30 GMT- AUS- January Building Approvals, vs. -1.5% in December
00:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q03 Housing Price Index, vs. +3.4% y/y
08:55 GMT- GER- Feb Unemployment: vs. -81K (SA) and +282 (NSA) in Jan
11:00 GMT- Jan preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +1.6% in Dec
12:00 GMT- BOE MPC decision
12:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: vs. 65.7 in Jan, see 62.5
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Building Permits
15:00 GMT- CDA- February PMI

FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +122,000 in Jan, see +125,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.6% in Jan, see 5.6%

Stockholm za 22:31 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY... at the moment..
8646-8637 ...Z1
8630-8623 .....Z2
8615-8602 ...Z3
8589-8581 .....Z4
8574-8567 ....Z5
On key ~8558
Happy trades........

Quito Ecuador Valdez 22:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
To end the day, here's a chin chiller:
http://www.rense.com/general49/no911.htm

Dallas GEP 22:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Well OMIL, got alot of these BODippers, I guess. Sydney running the euro up here a little I guess WTF???? I had thought originally that Asia might at least push to today's low but I guess it's a WAIT & SEE game.

st. pete islander 22:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ML, good advise. I believe you have the right to choose but are married to the election once it is done. Or, at least, it takes some time and changes to make a switch. Boston, suggest you speak to someone who works the trader's side of the tax law as some CPA's don't really know the in's and out's in normal business. gt

ICT ML 22:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
BOSTON ES 21:37...depends how you are set-up. You can set it up either way, I'd get qualified help setting it up.

Miami OMIL 22:03 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP WTH, going to have to watch the whole season of (censored) in the city before the heavy object is removed from the 1.2475 eur/usd area? I put the word censored so Jay would not have to. ;-) Looks like the indicators a gearing up for the bulls again for the next session. We shall see if it does break the retracement numbers I posted before. I guess the market is waiting for the news before they commit to there positions IMHO. (/;->

LAX-LGB SNP 21:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
gold's sharp rejection from 402 area & slow MAs is a sign of times to arrive
small sell signs on gbpchf under 2.369x, also eurgbp looks (double_|_bottomed) OUT

NYC TT 21:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan's comment sent usd lower

nyc jk 21:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan made some comments re the USD. He called the dollar fall "gradual" and said it has had no visible captial markets impact.

LA BV 21:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Any news out?

Dallas GEP 21:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Added another layer of shorts on Euro @ 1.2465. Also have a USD/CAD short that is making money from 1.3392

BOSTON ES 21:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
SNP - Thanks!

LAX-LGB SNP 21:41 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ES ... S/T gains/losses

BOSTON ES 21:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I had a question for US traders - are forex trades treated as short-term capital gains/losses (assuming short holding periods), or like futures (60/40 LT/ST gain rule)?
Thanks!

Tehran IRFX 21:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Will $ go up?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 21:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Maybe we can buy Yuan??
Monday March 1, 9:41 AM
China Approves HK Hang Seng Bank For Corporate Yuan Svcs

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/040301/15/3ier1.html

prauge viktor 21:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Gep...

Ldn 21:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Manufacturers feel dollar's sting
The Australian Industry Group's
index of manufacturing performance, co-sponsored by PricewaterhouseCoopers, fell by 10 per cent, with manufacturers also reporting an easing in employment conditions.The index measures production, new orders, employment, finished stocks and costs in the sector.
Activity fell the most in the currency-sensitive sectors of food and beverages as well as textiles, clothing and footwear, which were the worst performers in the latest survey.
AP

GA TJ 20:59 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Just got back home to check out the charts. Looks like its been a ho-hum day to trade. One quick move obviously related to some report and that looks like all there was. Looking at the Pound pairs it appears that a break will happen sometime early/late Asia. My Loonie friend appears to be heading for another Multiple Personality Disorder episode. If it hangs out to long at 1.3400 it seems to go haywire.

Will check back later. Nothing looks good from a position standpoint. Appears that those 4 Interest Rate decisions later this week have folks on the sidelines.

Dallas GEP 20:41 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
BTW, USD/CAD and Eur/USD don't necessarily move in opposite directions. USD/CAD can short for instance while EUR/USD is shorting at the same time and vice versa. The GOOD thing about USD/CAD is that you can trade it basically on it's levels and it adheres MORE to that sometimes than trying to predict it's movements chartwise.

Ldn 20:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
A stronger employment component
to the ISM data saw the Dollar rise

Dallas GEP 20:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yes Viktor I think it is. Question is at what levels???? Still think eur/jpy is key and for eur/usd to break LOW I think we need @ 135.20 or so to print on Eur/JPY. Now if that does happen, USD/JPY will short to around 108.60 BUT usd/jpy is looking BID form here so WTH????

So basically I would long USD/JPY from 108.60; long eur/jpy from 135.00; short eur/usd from 1.2460 assuming all these reach these levels. The MOF will rally up usd/jpy to allow for repatriotion of yen later in the month.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
The Bank of England lost an appeal on Monday to keep sensitive internal documents under wraps in a lawsuit seeking $1.87 billion over its role in the world's biggest banking fraud.

http://www.7am.com/cgi-bin/catwire.cgi?BUSINESS_1000_2004030101.htm

prauge viktor 20:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello Gep :I would like to ask u long usd/yen and short euro is it a good idea for the next 12 hours thanks a lot.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 20:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
"The timing of any change remains unknown. China's government has not released any timetable or detailed how it might carry out an adjustment to the exchange rate..."

"More people are converting their foreign assets into yuan because they expect it to appreciate in value."

http://afr.com/articles/2004/03/01/1078117370196.html

saloniko 2004 nk..1.43 20:09 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy may be the gatekeeper here as to how far the dollar will correct on this round.. above 110 could send euro back below 1.23 in a hurry while giving up 108 again will see euro bulls start hollering for 1.30 again.. odds are not yet ready for a full blown dollar correction..fwiw..

GBP/J dont look so healthy..
USD/CAD ..1.35..hmm T?P
GBP/J and GBP/CHF rally well But now??

1992 again?..hmmm....I dont think so cos again nothing its simular..

cherrios..to Braves who speak b4 the fact..
nk

London 20:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Re�ud Does anyone have any info on the US fund selling Aud just a moment ago thanks

Dallas GEP 20:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Could very well be that we have seen the LOW on Eur/USD for at least the US session. Asia may very well pip it down from the US session low but we shall see as usual.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Van// Ecuador's crime rate is skyrocketing, sorry U were robbed here. 3rd world Banana republics run by neanderthals are like that. Ecuador has tons of potential and miligrams of leadership. And robberies in front of cathedrals. They run their police force like they ran their banks, nose first into the turf. Nuff said?

Everyone else:
http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/debt/archives/msg00803.html

Comments on how this would effect ForexX

Gen dk 19:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London 19:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
What just caused the Aud drop from 7740 to 7709 ? anyone please

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:46 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Jay,

If streaming news is what your visitors want, and if they want it for free (of course!) and if it costs too much for GVI to work into the plan right now, a noted news agency beginning with R has a dandy little free ticker I use that goes up top of your browser if you drag it there (or floats on your screen..your option). It doesn't cost much bandwidth for me to use either.

A news ticker would be cool embedded up top on your webpage. There are free tickers (7 AM) you can put on your website, I put one on my site, works fine and it uses NONE of my bandwidth since it streams from somewhere else.

Gen dk 19:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
PJT// the last time they used verbal intimidations it worked. The buck rose, the Euro fell. Like a puppy in training, they see the dog biscuit awaiting them for their next trick and will do the same thing again perhaps..intimidate with words. But now that we know what's happening, and traders only get hornswaggled once. So beyond verbal intimidations, who knowz what they'll pull next. Remember BOJ is in bed very likely with ECB so there's two hip pockets full of ammo instead of one.

Chicago Irish 19:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Waiting for Belgrade Knez to start the bidding Jay? I think you'll be waiting a while :-)

Van jv 19:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Waldez///""so on second thought, ($5 idea) I'd rather put my $$ in a hole in the mattress""... not better , they will find it ...Quito was the only place I was robbed - in from of the cathedral, they/locals/ seem to believe in sharing.....

Global-View 19:34 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Note, Global-View 18:57 GMT March 1, 2004

We would appreciate feedback.

Porto PJT 19:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
well problably they use some verbal intimidations, really dont know.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Also...my $1 idea of simply opening a bank acct. in China to get Yuan in my coffers..uh..heh heh... S&P's finding was that ROC's banks are highly insolvent and some 45% of all loans made by them aer "problem loans"...so on second thought, ($5 idea) I'd rather put my $$ in a hole in the mattress. Valdez's burro came up with the first $1 thought, t'wasn't me, I swear! Hee haw.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yea, if China floats the Yuan, it can't float 40% or things will go nutz in many sectors, and we're not talking about just China...a world wide wripple! Maybe a tsunami. I think China has done the right thing in just letting things "be" right now with the Yuan. If countries want to slap heavy import taxes Chinese goods, then that's another thing.

Van jv 19:23 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Porto...if they do not cut, they will be tested ; their resolve at 1.30+-

Van jv 19:19 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT////Thanks,In that case eur is not indicating that and wating ...as I do..
Waldez...T. may be wrong this time on 40% , doubt China will allow float so much...I expect that he's right on SM and bonds

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Comment on this USD article???
http://www.tradewithvision.com/kbase/pdf/Feeling_bearish.pdf

Barcelona JP 19:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies

Sure, viies, sure.

But if you take an average, you'll see that in FOREX "as many players trading, the better".

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I got it! thanks all...good commentary by shanghai bc.

Porto PJT 19:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 18:52 GMT , FWIW, here in Eurozone we are not counting with any cut at all, no even considering that.

forestville jd 18:59 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
valdez where you click on post a message on this forum go to the right hand side of the row and click on achive the fill in form

Global-View 18:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
We need some feedback:

If you are interested in getting access to a news service, please send us what type of news you would like to see, whether you would be willing to pay for it and if so, what would be your price point. Send your feedback by EMAIL

Van jv 18:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR// seems still lot of BOD ; and many waiting for Thursday ECB decision; though .25 may be discounted.......??

london cam 18:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - I must be getting tired I meant to say click on the link called 'archive' not article

london cam 18:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - I must be getting tired I meant to say click on the link called 'archive' not article

london cam 18:46 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:40 GMT March 1, 2004

Think you're looking in the wrong place.

The yuan article is in fact a post on this forum made early this morning. click on the link called article near the top right of this page, enter shanghai for the city and bc for the initials etc as forestville stated. GL

Aden PK 18:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP, I am bearish on Cable, but Istill feel that any recovery can see initial resistance at 1.8755-75 and break here will see 1.8835-50 which should prove a strong resistance level. I will be selling cable near 1.8830 stop 1.8865 target 1.8520 first and then 1.8260

Yours and Dallas GEP comments/observation will be highly appreciated. Regards and Good luck

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
sorry friends !! too night in my desk now.
I will go home and hold my position until done.
CU...
thanks for today.

Tallinn viies 18:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 18:38 - other day you may find other times best... :)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:41 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 18:35 GMT March 1, 2004
I agree with you. thanks for the input.
I think form 1.8810-30 price move down again to get 1.8421

Barcelona JP 18:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EURO/USD, as cable, with its retracements, it's en route to 1,2375 - 1,23xx.

That's what I think.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
forresville// Could you give me the URL of the Yuan article or of Shanghai BC, I can't find a durned thing. HELP!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
best level sell is at 1.8810-30 area.
Va Raven 18:32 GMT March 1, 2004
I mean like this : when price move down from 1.8738 and then you buy, you can hold your position until 1.8810-30 be touched.

Barcelona JP 18:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
More.

After some lost trades, I try not to trade after EZ close.

The best hours to trade are from 7gmt to 18gmt.

Barcelona JP 18:35 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo raden_masandi

Maybe wrong, but the top in cable, if it gets there, it'll be one os those:
1,8770 - 1,8785 - 1,8800. 1,8740-1,8780 will very hard to break. Cable, with its retracements it's en route to 1,85xx- 1,83xx.

Va Raven 18:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi - I can't afford to "always buy" till 1.8830 touches...... because I have limited funds and need to eat tomorrow.....

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 18:30 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
too risky to have sell position now.

Miami OMIL 18:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP the eur/usd short is still active and still has a chance to make the 1.2375-70 area IMHO. I guess I will have to go and watch as the forex turns soap opera now. (/;->

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 18:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven,
Price now is on the way to get 1.8830, but to go there price move with zig-zag movement. Move down from 8738 is for swing only and so, from 8738 if price move down we must thinking for buy always until 1.8830 be touched.

forestville jd 18:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez Click on achive next to no refresh on top of page in city put shanghia, bc for initials, topic yuan ,date 2/28/2004

Va Raven 18:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi - You just promised 1.8830 minutes ago, now you say 1.8748 is the max, then "move down"...... I do need help on this one. Thanks.

Rye, NY et 18:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:11 GMT March 1, 2004
It's in the Archives of this forum...............GL/GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
price will rest when touch 1.8738, but I thik give extra 8-10 pips from there before move down again.

Rivonia PipPirate 18:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:11 Can you please tell us when you see a rubbish trade because they bring much profit. TIA.

Va Raven 18:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi - Yes, you did help alot in a special way...... thanks.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hello.. just now I get message from my partner Mr. co_z.
he give me a joke with this :"there is no chart if gbp/usd not meet 1.8810".
but I get important message from him.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
forestville jd // I can't find reference to the Shanghai BC article you mentioned about the Yuan in any of the search engines, can you give me a clue to find the info you mentioned in your post:"valdez: shanghai bc posted a piece on the yaun sat or sun how first it could be a sell off look in the achives."

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 18:04 GMT March 1, 2004
lol. :-)
ya..that's my humor sense, but when I say about number I think serious.
I hope can help you.

Va Raven 18:04 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi - Everything aside, you have a very strong sense of humor.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:59 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I promise friends !!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:58 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd start to move up from here to get 1.8830.nice buy signal.
will do.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd seen will start to move up again from swing low 1.2435 Bid. nice swing.
be carefull !! chance for buy again.

juchipila max 17:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Wilmington JB:
Margin is the key your trades should be planned according your k

Wilmington JB 17:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
The pips change every millisecond. How would I have time to profit? Also, would I need any special trading system to trade the forex or can I just trade off of the internet?

Dallas GEP 17:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Well Omil, I am not sure we got the answer we wanted right on Euro but Eur/JPY looks heavy.

Wilmington JB 17:47 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Raven

GENEVA FHR 17:47 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Wilmington if you make 10 pips on 100'000 it is 100 $ not 1'000$

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Raven// Yea, will contact Jay. Thanks amigo.

Va Raven 17:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
The minute you opens your position, you would have a margin call before you see anything happens....
better to post this on the help forum.

Wilmington JB 17:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I am currently learning to trade the spot market. I would like to understand the basics. If there is a 100:1 leverage which gives you the capability to trade $100,000 with $1,000 and if the exchange rate increases from 1.259 to 1.260, therefore, I would make $1,000? To what extent is the risk tolerance in the forex?

Chicago Irish 17:33 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Cheers Raden and good luck.

Washington mmm 17:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Guys...any ideas on USD/CHF
THANKS

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 17:28 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
1.2569 and than 1.2345 (nice step number). Please remember my scenario that be posted before when opening europe session.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
SAJ// True story. ;'}

Va Raven 17:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - I mean if you need couple of millions, I can trade with you here via Jay, and if you need more than a couple of hundred millions, I can contact friends in China. But don't tell me you need at least a yard, for that I have to use my contact in Russia. But in any case, contact Jay.

St. Louis SAJ 17:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez --

''...some $1 ideas. ($5 ideas require thought. $10 ideas are correct.) ...''

But, as per the famous sign, ''Dumb looks are still free.'' ? (heh heh heh ...)

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Days of Our Lives = Lays of Our Wives.

Chicago Irish 17:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Raden:Re your 16.47 post.Did you mean 1.2469 or 1.2569?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:16 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP// That's EXACTLY what I got from my banker here in bananaland who gets his insights from his gurus in Geneva. That crystal ball with the dime slot on my desk is jammed today...but I'd bet you're right. Thanx!! :')

Miami OMIL 17:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP I am going to go watch days of our lives soap opera and come back 30 minutes later to see if the heavy object has been removed from the 1.2425 area LOL. (/;->

Dallas GEP 17:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Eur/JPY below 135.50 and it will start pulling eur/usd down with it or in THEORY should,

forestville jd 17:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
valdez: shanghia bc posted a piece on the yaun sat or sun how first it could be a sell off look in the achives

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Raven?? OK. :{)

Dallas GEP 17:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, MACD on Euro is trending shorter so 10 days from now I think we MIGHT be range trading 1.21-1.23

Va Raven 17:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez - just let me know how much you need and see if I can arrange that. Contact Jay.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks to U 2, Saj. I was just wondering since as you indicated the Yuan would eventually be in the plays and admitted into trading. There are other ways to purchase Yuan as well, namely to just go there and open a bank account with a reputable bank (Citibank etc?) and just wait. But that would have to be just before the Yuan would release it's peg to the USD. The G7 wants Aisa to unpeg in general and it looks like BOJ might consider it. If they do maybe Peking would follow. Just some $1 ideas. ($5 ideas require thought. $10 ideas are correct.)

Dallas GEP 17:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Patience OMIL, it will break sooner or later. Give it 30 minutes

Kaunas DP 17:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP
1,2350 yeas...but not today - IMO

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanx Nottingham!

HK Kevin 16:59 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have views on USD/JPY. Thinking to long at 108.50. 108.50 (USD/JPY) x 1.2365 (EUR/USD) = 134.16, also my m/t target for short EUR/JPY.

Dallas GEP 16:59 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dp, we are getting lower highs on Euro now and lower lows so I believe time is running out on getting in before we dump so to speak. 1,2350 is target on Euro shorts ultimately . Euro MAY have problems getting above 1.2450 IMO at this time.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP// given the present day situation(s), & pre ECB meeting Mar 4, whad'ya think about usd/eur in the next 10 days? Some feel that the ECB meeting Mar 4 is a moot point and that no matter what the Euro will climb again...what think?

Nottingham 16:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:48 GMT

no expert on yuan but I'd guess best way to go would be via an option...premiums will be quite high right now since its on everyones radar but truth is any revaluation might not happen till H2 and you may benefit from waiting to allow premiums to fall...certainly this strategy would have conserved losses (as it didn't actually happen) when there was all the talk of HK peg going towards the end of the 90's expect in those days it was for a devaluation...gl gt

Miami OMIL 16:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP we need the fat person to get off the 1.2425 area for eur/usd can you give him or her a push please LOL. (/;->

St. Louis SAJ 16:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez -- Yuan (aka Renminbi) is not fungible in the broad mkt (yet -- this is inevitable at some point, of course). Symbol is RMB on a couple of commercial nets. You **can** if you're bold trade cash through a number of agents in HK. However, I don't know their dealing rules or their level of integrity, and most certainly there isn't any enforcement authority. For the time being, I'd give it a miss. Best to you...gl/gt

Toronto av8tur 16:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: 1651
Thanks for the advice. Will experiemnet.

Kaunas DP 16:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT March 1, 2004
More short on Euro @ 1.2430. Pretty aggressive bUT it should break SOMETIME

well..the point was that from 1,2430 limited downside...at least for the moment...but erratic upward is expected...

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Gracias a todos. Thanks everyone.. :^)

Toronto av8tur 16:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
For GEP
EUR/USD; USD/CHF

Dallas GEP 16:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
AV8, I use 3 line, 4,9,18

Barcelona JP 16:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Critical moment now en route to 1,2375

beijing road 16:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Valdez: in china, NO.

Dallas GEP 16:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
What pair DP?????

Toronto av8tur 16:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, last post for GEP.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Gotta suggestion. I'll give 7,000% return in one week. Gimme your money! :'0 Now this should settle the gee whiz gimicks..can anyone comment on my Yuan (Yawn) post below?

Toronto av8tur 16:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I find your advice and comments to be both accurate and professional.

I have been experimenting with EMA's on my 30 min chart. Recently I find the 3 & 8 ema's to be the most favourable.
Would you be interested in sharing your experience.
GL & GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:47 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
still not thinking for sell eur/usd because now is critical time,. maybe move up again from here 1.2427 to get 1.2569.

Kaunas DP 16:47 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT
why u risk 50 pips for 20 - ?

nyc jk 16:46 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
kray, please send me an email at [email protected] with the details of your investment progaram asap.

Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
More short on Euro @ 1.2430. Pretty aggressive bUT it should break SOMETIME

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
1. WE are not allowed to post email addresses, Jay does that to keep the board users secure.
2. There is not supposed to be commercials displayed here otherwise the board would be a giant ad banner.
3. I am a beginner but don't worry, anyone who puts BS like this on a board or anywhere else is automatically put in my dust bin. Nuff said.

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Why not just post it here Mel????

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Is the Chinese Yuan tradable, if so what's it's tick symbol? I read 2 weeks ago that it's 40% undervalued because it's been pegged to the USD for so long, and recent news states that the Chinese want to unpeg it to the USD. Sooooo...your opinions on all this please.

london cam 16:34 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Khabarovsk Kray 16:28 GMT March 1, 2004
why not post your instructions on here!!!!!

Barcelona JP 16:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
All set to see eur/usd @ 1,2375.

That's what I think.

Dallas GEP 16:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Well JP, The deal is 1.3390 is finding some buyers and it seems when we get above 1.34 it doesn't stay there long.

HK Kevin 16:26 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Sorr, my last post should read "Just want to see a higher high in the hourly chart."

Miami OMIL 16:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good night AB hope you get better. (/;->

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I hope that I will totally recover tomorrow, now time for the bed for a patient, gd night.

Barcelona JP 16:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

Take care of your Cad short

HK Kevin 16:23 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:12 GMT, certainly not. Just want to see a higher high. The long USD/CAD position is an intraday trade and I usually have a time limit (3 hours) to see it breaking resistance. If it breaks 1.3400, I would hold longer as the day is still young.

Nottingham 16:19 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
>>>hk ab eur/gbp 0.66

critical, absolutely

>>>HK Kevin...it could take some more days yet...i.e. these levels have been in play for a couple of weeks and unless we get a couple of big figures down from here, you can't rule out a test of these resistances on any given day

gl gt

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
The MOF will need to run up USD/JPY to compensate for the anticipated buybacks on the YEN. I DO NOT know the exact timing of these things but I would start to look for a good place to LONG usd/jpy.

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
If Euro can break thru then usd/cad should long as it is doing now. Have a stop just over figure on usd/cad shorts. That was a GREAT trade on the usd/cad long from 1.3334 area.

Va Raven 16:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:08 - why one more hour, fixing?

Dallas GEP 16:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ET, it actually needs to break that 1.2430 area. I will attempt some more here shortly , no doubt.

HK Kevin 16:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, Nottingham could be right. I give USD/CAD one more hr to break 1.34 level, if not take profit. My intraday t/p for this trade is 1.3460.

Miami OMIL 16:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I still have a sell signal in my system despite the lack of follow through it has shown for the eur/usd pair. Looking for 1.2375-70 area first and the test of 1.2350-30 IMHO. (/;->

Dallas GEP 16:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Omil, NO FEAR, NO EMOTION, you know you basically have to be non-human!!!! LOL

Rye, NY et 16:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Rye, NY et 03:55 GMT March 1, 2004
Short EUR/USD 1.2515;cut 1.2595;take 1.2385

Took 1.2445

GEP, if 2450 doesn't hold, I'm looking to short again------
What do you think?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:06 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham// thanks and I just concern that the pair is now on a more critical moment near the 200 dma which should not be overlooked.

eur/jpy break 135.50 but we need a close.

will BOJ allow this happens?... interesting.

Miami OMIL 16:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP you forgot the main ingredient big ones!!!! Lol. (/;->

Dallas GEP 16:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Sejake, nothing special 30 minute charts using BB, Stochs, and MACD. Use 5 minute to confirm AFTER 30 minutes give signal . Know FIBS and MA.

Nottingham 16:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:55

Longer time frame is anything longer than specs clearly...since I don't know it I cannot say what...I don't anticipate further strength until those sellers are cleared/give up/complete their strategy...this would culminate prob in some closes above key resistance in which case 1.37-1.41 would be reasonable for new range...until evidence of this I don't think you should bet on upside break when each and every time sellers have won the day...on the flipside there are plenty of buyers all the way down so buy on dip and take on blip must be most logical strategy...gl gt

Nicosia Cyborg 16:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
opened a small "scary" long at 2436.....

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 15:58 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I have exit position for eur/usd when meet 1.2435, also gbp/usd but at 1.8672.
rest time now !!

Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Short US/CAD from 1.3385. Took +5 pips on EUr/USD short (last set)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
maybe you are talking about 10 years time frame.

B.A. BOCA 15:54 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab // i think the point is that these players are already short...

gl

Nottingham 15:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I have euro support at 2410/15

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 15:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
system break low in couple day triger cud be payroll data market structure drop ?

London, Canada Sejake 15:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, nice trading!!
Just curious, what time frame do you view your charts in to get your 20-50 pip trades? Are you using any special gizmo's or just basic chart patterns, support resistance etc?

Thanks,

Sejake

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 15:43 GMT March 1, 2004
usdcad...sellers appearing on approach to 1.34 today...these players have no favourite level to defend, simply offering anything above the figure with enough vigour to soak up buys and force close below some key levels at 3440/20 and 200 day moving average...they are likely to have a longer time horizon than specs (certainly evidence suggests this)



Excuse me. But for a longer time horizon, isn't that we should buy the break on daily sma 200 rather than short?
....... If u anticipated further strength, why short on the break? Just found it amusing.

nyc jk 15:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP what target you looking for on that EUR short?

Tehran IRFX 15:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Is 2440 support lvl for EUR?

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Pretty aggressive but I am short again @ 1.2446 on Euro

Gen dk 15:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 15:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...sellers appearing on approach to 1.34 today...these players have no favourite level to defend, simply offering anything above the figure with enough vigour to soak up buys and force close below some key levels at 3440/20 and 200 day moving average...they are likely to have a longer time horizon than specs (certainly evidence suggests this)

HK Kevin 15:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:27 GMT, if history repeat itself in the 4 and 8-hr charts, we are in the early stage of an huge upmove to take out 1.35 level. If I am wrong, USD?CAD wll be blocked below 1.3400. Watch this hourly close for clue.

Gen dk 15:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

saloniko 2004 nk 15:35 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/J will help E/J to break 135,50 and lower..

If i see correct..


nk

Nicosia Cyborg 15:31 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
1.2390-410 looks like a buy in me eyes. s/l either at 365 or 320

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 15:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
oops sorrry 1.8685 retrace

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 15:28 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
another sell opportunity when retrace to 1.8665, euro qt 1.2470 good luck think threatened previous low double bottom
1.8469 euro target good exit at 1.2330

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, don't you find the cad is suspicious?
price pushed down fast from 1.35 to 1.3350 on Friday.
A big hand is flirting there.

HK Kevin 15:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
bkk Cad 15:18 GMT, you don't knw how scare when 1 entered the 2nd short position this Asian morning. I hope to see EUR/JPY and USD/CAD with an hourly close below 135.50 and above 1.3400.

bkk cad 15:23 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
SAM Aud for a nimble 20 pips south ere. Yawn! night all!

Nicosia Cyborg 15:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Will be looking for a good eur dip/$chf uptick towards the 1.24 and 1.2720 to short some dollars.....mkt seems to be repeating itself....anybody agreeing on these?? gl gt

PAR 15:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ISM shows improved employment but does not show where these jobs were created. Could be in China or in India.

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed 1.2490 euro shorts @ 1.2450. This level is support but PROBABLY will break to possibly 1.2420,

Gen dk 15:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bkk Cad 15:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin: And well done on your eur/yen trade as well...nice :)

GVI Jay 15:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez 15:07 GMT March 1, 2004

We do not post on the Forex Forum as a regular feature but do so on GVI.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
watch the reaction of a close above 200 dma on dlr/cad will have a dictative effect on other pairs.

hong kong nt 15:16 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ab -- place a sell euro order at 1.260 and buy usd/chf order at 1.250. bed time now, good trades...

bkk Cad 15:16 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
You da man Raden! hats off mate :)

HK Kevin 15:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR is gone.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
nice

nyc jk 15:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
excellent call raden

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
DOWJ flying.....

Bkk Cad 15:13 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Raden: Good to see you! do you think 1.2330 fib possible this week? Thanks

prauge viktor 15:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello gep :I think we are going to see 1,238 soon how do u see itthanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
confirm for strong usd?

Washington mmm 15:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
out USD/CAD

HK Kevin 15:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dead or bounce, crtical time for EUR.

Belgrade Knez 15:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

Global-View 15:04 GMT March 1, 2004

Thanks, but you should be a bit faster to give this numbers on forex forum.
Cheers.

Global-View 15:04 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GVI 15:01 GMT March 1, 2004
ISM PMI 61.4 vs. 63.6 in Jan
Employment Index 56.3 vs. 52.9

Tor Pumpkin 15:01 GMT March 1, 2004
prices paid component of ISM is bid. 81.5 vs 71.7 expxected, and 75.5 last

Belgrade Knez 15:03 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

Anyone have US data please?

Thanks.

chicago cal 15:03 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
if anyone is having trouble profiting in these markets, please feel free to contact me throgh jay at global-view, i'm willing to help fellow traders, however i'll be off this forum for a couple of weeks

later

Bkk Cad 15:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
nt: I agree, but eur/stg looks heavy on daily and 1.2330 fib level is good target, albeit bids are growing, what to do?

hong kong nt 15:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ab -- you may have to change your handle to 0.6543 soon...

Tallinn viies 14:58 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
buying the eurnok here at 8,6870.
good luck

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
and seem my .66 can be removed soon.

hong kong nt 14:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab -- preferred scenario is seeing brave guys lifting eurjpy to 137.5 and eur to 1.260...

HK Kevin 14:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:44, I have two heavy short positions from 135.78 and 136.82.

saloniko 2004 nk 14:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
As i think..

Only when i see .. Below E/J 129.36 ..i will short Euro..

And Might this huppen @ the end of this month..(i mean to be 100% Euro no Bull)

Have a nice month and wish the best 4all!

nk

Dallas GEP 14:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
NICE usd/cad long trades working guys!!!!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
For eur bulls, all eyes are on the eur/jpy 135.50 now...

saloniko 2004 nk 14:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good Evening..

I think today will have to focus on GBP/J cos once will see 202-1 frome the other side might E/J ..Kiss min 134


nk

nyc jk 14:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
cal I know your "track record" on this forum is excellent, and I really like your ideas...just saying it's a fact that on this forum when people say something is easy or certain, etc there seems to be a higher than random incidence of trades reversing, I hope you are the exception! gl.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
be carefull !! eur/usd for biger cyclic build sell signal for confirmation.

Nottingham 14:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...as expected London session uptick extinguished the crosses draw to sub 1.33 levels today...technical pressure from early signals for such a move has now disappeared, so even if further losses are seen, they will be met by buyers, so buy on dips remains favoured strategy...gl gt

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
belgeade knez.
now i am online in messenger.
sorry.. I can not chat for several days because really2 bussy here.

chicago cal 14:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
i think i posted 1 losing trade past couple of months it also depends on how one manages trade, one neat thing with trading is traders can have conflicting views and both can still profit it's all about timing

CT DB 14:34 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
closed swissie at even, closed euro long from 75 at 95. see what data holds

Dallas GEP 14:34 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ISM data in 25 minutes

HK Kevin 14:33 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, you get well soon. Health is far more important than $$.

nyc jk 14:30 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hope the positions work out for you Cal, seems though whenever someone posts how easy it is on this forum, it inevitably goes wrong shortly thereafter....gl

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:28 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, dlr/cad daily sma 200 now at 1.3409-11. And this pair never close above this level. So, it should be watched and seems someone is protecting the prizes on the upside.

Washington mmm 14:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP.....Bought @339 with an OCO @ 324/370 :)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, my 1.3333 and 0.7777 almost filled, tough luck. Maybe I should sleep more to recover quickly.

in almost recovered mode.

Mtl JP 14:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
There are no economic data on Canadian calendar.
Tomorrow BoC annoncences its interest rate setting.

HK Kevin 14:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, Dallas GEP. Personally, I have entered the position.

chicago cal 14:23 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
good thing my trades r up, so easy; i'm on auto good day all

bucharest dc 14:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
is...

bucharest dan 14:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
what hour us expected data from canada?

Dallas GEP 14:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
short=SHOULD

Dallas GEP 14:19 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Normally USD/CAD short LONG from here but candle pattern is still bearish. Could short to 1.3300, trying to determine now and with data out shortly it may not be wise to long just yet

Washington mmm 14:19 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Kevin

HK Kevin 14:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Long small USD/CAD at 1.3338 with tight stop.

washington mmm 14:16 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning.....Any ideas on USD/CAD
Thanks

Dallas GEP 14:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
DB, It is now but I was referring to Asia last night my time (US).

CT DB 14:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:09,
Its monday mate! (LOL)

beijing road 14:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
DB: cut already. And longed at 1.2483 again.

Dallas GEP 14:09 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
One of the slower Sundays that I can remember. MArket is very thin.

CT DB 14:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:55,
good calls!
beijing road 13:54
Did u cut your losses on 530 long? I have opened my stops on euro to 70 pts in the market. losses are larger but u get the runs (in more ways than one LOL).
I have shorted usdchf at 2625. long euro at 475 still open.
also euro long from 580:-(
GL & GT

singapore sniper 14:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD is doing well for uptrend... need to clear 0.7770-80.
next few days to see it back towards 0.7810

melbourne farmacia 13:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
chicago cal 12:52 GMT March 1, 2004

Tln viies 12:49 GMT March 1, 2004

Nice work guy's GT

Tallinn viies 13:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
we got over prevous day high. daily stochastic crossing higher.
now we tested 50% retr on hourly euro chart and are ready go to test downtrendline near 1,2580 which by the way approx 38,2% retr from last downmove....

buy it with closed eyes :)

beijing road 13:54 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
WO, nothing gonna change my love to buy EUR(lol even though lost couples of times).

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 13:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
maximal tick at 1.2515 for eur/usd.
sell again.

Barcelona JP 13:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Just a thought:

Stay out until ISM is printed.

Ldn pm 13:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Market testing BoJ's resolve ?

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 13:46 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I think now is good for sell eur/usd when at 1.2494 to get 1.2435.
will do !

NYC NYC 13:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Seems eerie and quiet, bank market and here as well. reflects a market very cautious awaiting rate decisions and US jobs on friday.

Chambery FR JFB 13:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Income Rises 0.2%, Weaker than Expected, Spending 0.4% (IFR)

Global-View 13:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GVI 13:31 GMT March 1, 2004
Jan Personal Income +0.2% (market expected +0.5%)
Jan Personal Consumption +0.4% (as expected)

France Lucky Strike 13:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello,
Regarding the negative divergence on MACD and the fact euro is under its moving average and also because it has not done a new high in the last 5 hours, I would say it's better to sell than buy......

chicago cal 13:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
bot some sterling too, will add above 1.8800 for 1.8900 and maybe 1.9000

gl,gt

Tehran IRFX 12:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR will go up?

Saudi Arabia Gamber 12:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
what is the effect of the today data releases on eur$ and gbp$?

chicago cal 12:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
bot some euro's as well will add to longs above 1.2580 for 1.2700

gl,gt

Tln viies 12:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
euro holding up very well. forming bottom here.

buying on dips still favoured. stop still at 1,2414.
personally bought at 68.
my target within 48 hours is 1,2570/80.
gl

GVI john 12:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2475�$/yen 109.25
DJIA +42 pts� 10-yr 3.99%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
The dollar is still hanging in there early Monday. There is not much of an appetite for trying its short side again at the moment, but we suspect that selling momentum is likely to surface again sometime soon. We read reports of Bank of Japan intervention again, but are taking them with a grain of salt. However there is no doubt that it is easier to intervene in a market that is already moving your way.

This is a major week for central bank decisions. We feel the Bank of Canada will ease tomorrow, that the RBA will hold back on a rate hike on Wednesday. That the Bank of England will pause on a rate hike Thursday as well, and that the ECB rate cut call is a toss of a coin on Thursday. Note that the bias on central bank ACTION this week is biased towards ease. That tells us a lot about the strength of the global recovery well into the process. We also just read a forecast for additional Bank of Japan ease (another liquidity injection) mid-month. The monetary authorities are still worried more about substandard growth than the risk of inflation. We feel Fed policy will remain on hold until 2005.

The PMI�s out of Europe today were generally lackluster. The EU PMI was unchanged at 52.5, just above the 50 �boom or bust� line. The U.S. ISM PMI is released at 15:00 GMT. It is broadly seen as easing a bit from the January 63.6 level by about 2 points. Anything above 60 would still be a strong reading. The major report of the week (and the month) is the February employment report on Friday. Forecasts are for a rise in jobs on the order of +125K, vs. +122K in January. This has been a tough series for experts to forecast recently and the revisions in earlier figures tend to be substantial, so be forewarned. At this juncture, the Bush reelection is tied to job creation and Secretary Snow�s forex policy is as well.

CALENDAR
MONDAY, MARCH 1, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- Jan Personal Income: vs. +0.2%, see +0.5%
13:30 GMT- US- Jan Personal Consumption Expend: vs. +0.4%, see +0.4%
15:00 GMT- US- Feb ISM PMI: vs. 63.6 in Jan, see 62.0
15:00 GMT- US- Jan Construction Spending

TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 2004
23:00 GMT- AUS- RBA Meeting
23:30 GMT- JPN- 10-Yr JGB Auction
23:30 GMT- JPN- February Monetary Base
00:30 GMT- AUS- January Retail Trade, vs. -0.6%
05:00 GMT- JPN- Jan 19-20 BOJ Minutes
11:00 GMT- UK- 1Q04 CBI Distributive Trades Survey
11:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Unemployment Rate: vs. 8.8% in Dec
13:00 GMT- CDA- Industrial Price Index
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Challenger Layoffs
14:00 GMT- CDA- BOC Monetary Policy Decision

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 3, 2004
23:00 GMT- AUS- RBA Meeting Outcome
00:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q03 GDP, vs. +2.6% y/y
09:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Services PMI: vs. 57.3 in Jan
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Services PMI: vs. 59.8 in Jan
11:00 GMT- Jan Producer Prices: vs. -0.1% in Dec
UK- Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting begins
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
19:00 GMT- US- Fed�s Beige Book

THURSDAY, MARCH 4, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
00:30 GMT- AUS- January Building Approvals, vs. -1.5% in December
00:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q03 Housing Price Index, vs. +3.4% y/y
08:55 GMT- GER- Feb Unemployment: vs. -81K (SA) and +282 (NSA) in Jan
11:00 GMT- Jan preliminary Industrial Orders: vs. +1.6% in Dec
12:00 GMT- BOE MPC decision
12:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Feb ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: vs. 65.7 in Jan, see 62.5
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Building Permits
15:00 GMT- CDA- February PMI

FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +122,000 in Jan, see +125,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.6% in Jan, see 5.6%

shanghai bc 12:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

MALAGA -- Good evening..I guess it all depends on how well China can do this year regardless of EU and USA..In 2002,it was China and India's growth which saved the world from recession..In 2003,Japan and East Asia's 60% growth came from its export to China..So,China's performance this year is the thing to watch for Nikkkei as well..The thing is China is trying to slow donw a bit after last year's 9.1% GDP with this year's target for 7-8%..All in all,Nikkei and other East asian stockmarket may do as well as China's economy this year still with upside bias..Imho..

Sydney dj 12:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
some good platforms around?? looking to chenge.

Saihat 12:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
for demo
gbp
buy hgih 1.8730
sell low 1.8605

london cam 12:13 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Nicely put Daimyo. A view worth noting by those who just cannot resist being in a possie

Miami OMIL 12:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
On eur/usd the 1.2450-45 area must be broken soon or this could turn bullish very quickly IMHO. (/;->

Oakland Daimyo 12:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
london cam-- I often have to remind myself that everyday is not a good day to trade. Watching and waiting. Scenario will play out, not trying to predict the mkt, just trying to follow it.

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 11:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia solo raden_masandi 11:23
Hi Raden.
Is this as you had said last week, when you posted that eur/usd and cable to 1.26 and 1.87 minimum then down?.
I remember you posted that and some guys here could hear non of it just because the dollar was bullish.
Keep up the good work sir!

london cam 11:47 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo. I'm sitting on the sidelines which is usual for me on Mondays. 'Maybe' the US numbers at 8:30 and 10:00 est will put some spark into this market. GL

Melbourne Qindex 11:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Partial Expansion of 44-day Cycle


Curve B : 1.2331* - 1.2376 - 1.2421 - 1.2466 - 1.2510


... // 1.2421 - 1.2444 - 1.2466 - 1.2488 - 1.2510 // ...

Oakland Daimyo 11:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Looks like no action for now. Let's see if NY has anything. Maybe a slow day.

Tehran IRFX 11:28 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
is it good place for long EUR, now?

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 11:23 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hey friends!!
seen eur/usd get difficult to block the selling emotion, now is on the critical time.
also gbp/usd.
seen price move down soon.

PAR 11:03 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Lowering interest rates does not create jobs as it lowers the price of the production factor capital compared to the production factor labor. As a consequence companies replace labor by capital and you get a jobless expansion.Also commodity indexes are up 8% year to date and almost 20% on a 12 month period, so talking about deflation looks rather silly. The answer to sustainable expansion lies in interest hikes like in the UK where production factors labor and capital are well balanced, hence the very low UK unemployment thanks to high interest rates and low labor costs.

Oakland Daimyo 11:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
[EUR/USD] extending lower after a brief test towards 1.2540 was cut down to size by a Middle East portfolio player. This has set a more bearish tone back into play, with those who lost heavily in Feb unwilling to reenter Dlr short positions ahead of the payrolls data. This is due up on Friday, a day after the CB rate decision and press conference which will be so significant this time around given rate cut hopes. After Fri"s benign HICP report the argument for an ease based on economics, not political pressure, has grown and as such the Eur/Usd downside remains vulnerable. The 1.2350-1.2950 DNT is due to expire Tuesday and could impact trade if Eur/Usd"s decline extends through 1.2450. MMS

Malaga boqueron 10:54 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc. We've just experienced a nice break to the top on the Nikkei. Do you think this one is for real, and if so where would an initial objective be, or could it just be another trap. I have trouble envisioning a runaway Nikkei ( which is looking increasingly likely ) alongside downtrending U.S. and European indices. I believe the latter have topped out and are now marking time before the downtrend resumes. Would welcome your thoughts.TIA.

sarasota jf 10:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
cad - tells me to sq short positions for some bounce

Melbourne Qindex 10:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Congested Projection

... 1.2289 // 1.2352 - 1.2416 - 1.2479 // 1.2542 ...

shanghai bc 10:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

DAIMYO -- Good evening..You are welcome..Good trades..

QINDEX -- Good evening..That is a good news..Good forecasts and trades..

Melbourne Qindex 10:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Congested Projection

... 1.2289 -- 1.2352 - 1.2416 - 1.2479 // 1.2542 ...

Belgrade Knez 10:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 10:38 GMT March 1, 2004

Hello Raden,

Can you please go to yahoo messenger, I would like to ask you something that is not related to forx.

Cheers.

Melbourne Qindex 10:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:35 GMT - Good evening! EUR/USD and EUR/JPY looks very promising from my system.

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 10:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd build sell signal. 1.2436-45 is objective from this signal.

Gen dk 10:38 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland Daimyo 10:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thank you BC.

Oakland Daimyo 10:36 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
London cam--sorry I should not use words like party train. That is subjective. Yes I'm in.

shanghai bc 10:35 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

The key this week is Japanese players and Eur/Jpy 1.3550..Once this line falls on daily close,Eur/usd 1.22 will say hello to the shorts..If 1.3550 is still held this week,Eur/Usd still has a chance to bounce around for a bit longer..Chances are the line will fall sometime this week..Fwiw..

Ldnl 10:33 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR ECON: German Employers Head, ECB Rate Cut Justified-Reuters

london cam 10:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 10:26 GMT March 1, 2004

Party Train - On Eurusd I'd be more comfortable shorting once 1.2470 is convincingly breached. Have you moved in yet?

Melbourne Qindex 10:30 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that one can see 1.2416 and the next two daily cycle quantised levels at 1.2352 and 1.2289 are bonus.

Gen dk 10:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland Daimyo 10:26 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Party train!

hong kong nt 10:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
yen crosses players are not generous as last week...

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 10:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
be carefull if you meet these numbers !!
aud/usd : 0.7704
usd/cad : 1.3407
eur/usd : 1.2445/35
gbp/usd : 1.8600

Melbourne Qindex 10:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle indicates that speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.2479 and the next target is 1.2416.

Melbourne Qindex 08:05 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2416 - 1.2542 and the mid-point reference is 1.2479.


... // 1.2416* - 1.2448 - 1.2479* - 1.2511 - 1.2542* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 10:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.2466.

Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle References

Curve C : 1.2110* - 1.2171 - 1.2232 - 1.2293 - 1.2354* - 1.2416 - 1.2477 - 1.2538 - 1.2599*
EUR/USD : The 44-day cycle references are functioning actively beside the 22-day cycle.


Curve A : 1.2001 - 1.2127* - 1.2253 - 1.2378* - 1.2504 // ...


Curve B : ... // 1.2331* - 1.2376 - 1.2421 - 1.2466 - 1.2510* // 1.2554 ...


Curve C : ... 1.2110* // 1.2171 - 1.2232 - 1.2293 - 1.2354* - 1.2416 - 1.2477 - 1.2538 // 1.2599* ...

London DD 10:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I think dollar will turn down here. Will probably just be a choppy day...

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 10:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hey friends !!
be carefull with eur/usd when at 1.2445/35. That's level is important. better exit your selling position there .

Melbourne Qindex 10:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : When the market is trading below 1.2451, the following 22-day cycle will exert its effect.

Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT February 26, 2004
EUR/USD : The following 22-day cycle are now governing the downward trending movement of the market.

Set A : ... // 1.2191* - 1.2256 - 1.2321 - 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Set B: ... // 1.2321* - 1.2347 - 1.2399 - 1.2373 - 1.2425* - 1.2451 - 1.2477 - (1.2503) - 1.2529* // ...

Oakland Daimyo 10:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Please note: I'm not trading Cable right now.

Oakland Daimyo 10:06 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: GBP/USD is a sell under 1.8680

Melbourne Qindex 10:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that the market will shift lower. The market will vibrate around 1.2487 with an expected magnitude of 25 pips, i.e. 1.2462 - 1.2512.

Melbourne Qindex 05:54 GMT February 28, 2004
EUR/USD : My 3-day cycle charts indicate that the market is likely to trade between 1.2439 - 1.2536 early next week. On Monday the critical level of my daily cycle is located at 1.2536 - 1.2561. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2289 // 1.2314 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2684 // 1.2709. Initially the market is going to trade between 1.2462 - 1.2512 in Asia time.


... 1.2265 - 1.2289 // 1.2314 ... 1.2363 ... 1.2413 - 1.2437 - (1.2462) - 1.2487 - (1.2512) - 1.2536 - 1.2561 ... 1.2610 ... 1.2660 - 1.2684 // 1.2709 ...

Oakland Daimyo 09:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
USD is up strong. EUR/USD Sell pressure is now > buy pressure. This is a leading indicator so let's see how this 1.2480/1.2472 area holds up. This may be interesting.

melbourne O 09:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
the Dollar starting a new month at it's recent high is good news for dollar bears.

Ldn 09:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
For those who mssed t at 09.30GMT: UK Feb Manufacturing PMI53.2 Vs Jan 55.8

wuhan player 09:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo: thank you for ur suggestion. !!!
... i always tried to give reasons why i enter the position i want, however, the market was not like what ur thought... after clear buy or sell singal appeared in my system, i also like to ask u guys to give some comments to get agreement,i knew there r lots of experts in this forum... NOBODY WANT TO CUT LOSS, but u have to take the truth. today, i had already won 100 pips total .. however, i am still learning here.. u guys r always my respectful teachers..

regards!!! GL for all

Miami OMIL 09:26 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo is correct you must have a plan or a least a sense of where the market is going then make your plans. The comments that people present here should be taken as reference to your plans. Do not follow other comments blindly or you will be in a world of trouble sooner or later IMHO. (/;->

Oakland Daimyo 09:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
wuhan player 09:13 GMT Mar 1, 2004
If there's any doubt, then there's no doubt.
Preservation of trading ammo must be priority one. You must always have a strong conviction for why you are taking a trade. If you feel lost or disoriented, exit , clear your head, decide what to do next. Please note, be ready to get back in, do not sit on the sidelines forever. Analysis/Paralysis

Miami OMIL 09:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
On eur/usd if the support (1.2470) goes then around 1.2451-45 will be a good sell signal to test the 1.2350-30 area again. As long as the resistance, which is 1.2545-50 and 1.2580-85 at the moment holds this will be possible IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

PAR 09:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Looking for much better than expected UK manufacturing PMI. Higher interest rates are supporting the UK manufacturing sector.

Nottingham 09:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
usdcad intraday pattern signals that sub 1.33 likely today...however, intraday situation is always very fluid and pattern is liable to change...given this, the intraday forecasting system will have a high failure rate...I am expecting another failure here and in that case, signal would unwind and push pair to 1.34 at some stage today, but onus is on sooner rather than later...note that a move below 1.3340 would bring risk of signal fulfillment...gl gt

wuhan player 09:13 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hi..guys.. moring for all.. .. .. what to do now..for current position? EUR @1.2495 Long or short? [email protected] Short still? Indonisia. plz give me some comment.. or anyone else?
thx for all

Lagos Styrax 09:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning to all

Dallas GEP 09:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Euro @ 1.2490. I will hold this one and add if it longs.

lugano rob roy 09:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed 2nd pos at cost, 1.2495.
Still short at 1.2438 and aud 0.7710.

Dallas GEP 08:58 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
That short on USD/CHF actually went against the charts BUT at the time, it make two new daily lows so more often than not that indicates more shorts are in store. In this case obviously it followed the charts though so that was a judgement error on my part. It WILL happen again, but hopefully not very often!! LOL The mistake was compounded by taking the stop off @ 1.2696. IT may VERY well short from here howver as Euro is on support. Agin it seems somewhat mixed.

Ldn 08:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD outlook bearish ahead of Thu's ECB rate decision, says DrKW. Sees pair capped below 1.26, expects mkt to go into Thu short - HSBC sees Euro down to at least 1.17 before the next sharp rally in the next 2-3 months

Madras KR 08:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Msc rocket 08:46 GMT .You put it exactly frd.GL.

Oakland Daimyo 08:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
It appears the powers that be are ready for short squeeze. Remember raids happen both ways (purpose: inventory flows from weak hands to strong hands) Watch 1.2500/1.2480 support. Fridays price action was not enough for me to say this so I waited. I believe EUR/USD trading above 1.2542 is a buy until 1.2567/1.2582 is seen. Looking to re-enter shorts from this area. Of course, it depends on buy/sell pressure at the time. There is room for move back to 1.2700/ 1.2740 so I will not fight the trend but will ride it until failure. The underlying distribution cycle that has been in motion since Jan '04 is still in process. I and others will be ready to short again for inevitable ride to 1.2330 and beyond. Med-term tgts 1.21, the longer this process takes the lower my tgt gets. EUR/USD buyers must hold 1.2472 to hold off bear raiders. Good trades to all.

Msc rocket 08:46 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
What could I see from eur/usd picture – big range on dailies 1.235/1.295 , price more close to lower border, but do not like go through it last Friday. So buy eur/usd now and dont forget to set Stop+Reverse order. Taget1 low+� of the range, tgt2 low+ range, tgt3 low+2*range Second simple idea is better to buy Gbp/usd instead Eur/usd because of stronger outlook and better swap rates

Dallas GEP 08:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Sorry can't count, 52 pip loss to go with that 30 pip gain on eur/usd short so net -22. That sucks!!

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 08:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hello.
I am back.
I have scenario for eur/usd like this:
price move down to get 1.2445/35 and then move up from there to get 1.2568 and then move down so far for trend to get first station 1.2345 (nice stepnumber) and then make swing up (still not be frocasted) to get new low 1.2209.
maybe can help you.

Dallas GEP 08:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed USD/CHF @ 1.2620 for 56 pip loss.

Helsinki iw 08:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/GBP testing support here at 0,6660/70, which I
think will give in. Better support at 0,6625/35 which, if broken,
should see the pair start a move towards 0,62++.

Dallas GEP 08:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yeah IW that GBP/CHF has moved up 100 pips. Not helping!!!! LOL

Helsinki iw 08:34 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, watch GBP/CHF, it�s moving higher fast. That USD/CHF
level of yours could break soon.

bloemfontein KN 08:33 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
okay, thanks

Melbourne Qindex 08:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:54 GMT February 28, 2004
EUR/USD : My 3-day cycle charts indicate that the market is likely to trade between 1.2439 - 1.2536 early next week. On Monday the critical level of my daily cycle is located at 1.2536 - 1.2561. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2289 // 1.2314 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2684 // 1.2709. Initially the market is going to trade between 1.2462 - 1.2512 in Asia time.


... 1.2265 - 1.2289 // 1.2314 ... 1.2363 ... 1.2413 - 1.2437 - (1.2462) - 1.2487 - (1.2512) - 1.2536 - 1.2561 ... 1.2610 ... 1.2660 - 1.2684 // 1.2709 ...

Miami OMIL 08:31 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Well I have experimented with a lot of indicators what are you trying to do with the ATR indicator. Try to post in the help forum I will join you there so we won�t take any space here in the forex forum. (/;->

bloemfontein KN 08:26 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Omil, the reason I am asking is that I am testing a volatility b/o system based on ATRs, was wondering if anybody else are doing this?

Cheers

Dallas GEP 08:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
There are some offers @ 1.2600 on usd/chf. Will see soon how strong.

Miami OMIL 08:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
bloemfontein KN 08:16 GMT March 1, 2004
There are all kinds of traders from all over the world here. (/;->

Dallas GEP 08:17 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Taking stop off usd/chf for time being. The fact that it made a new daily low is bearish but Euro is shorting so it's a wait and see.

bloemfontein KN 08:16 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Do you guys just trade intraday or are there any swing or position traders here?

Miami OMIL 08:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the info JF have a good day. (/;-> GT

Melbourne Qindex 08:06 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:05 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2416 - 1.2542 and the mid-point reference is 1.2479.


... // 1.2416* - 1.2448 - 1.2479* - 1.2511 - 1.2542* // ...

Dallas GEP 08:06 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
To be totally frank, I am not too thrilled with this USD.CHF short position now bUT if Pound breaks high then usd/chf should short. Stop is @ 1.2596

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 08:03 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
chance for long aud/nzd positional.

longed 1.1170, till 1.1 s/l 1.0943. for target 1.2.

in recovering mode.

sarasota jf 08:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
rumor mof move bid from lower levels to 109.10 and now 2 jap banks are bidding in some usdyen - making some offers appear in eurusd - gt

Dallas GEP 08:01 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I mentioned earlier that Cable was bullish and while it looked like it MIGHT have shorted earlier I didn;t trust that it would actually go short. Current price action is an prime example of WHY!!! LOL

MONACO OGA 08:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 01/03
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2530), 90 pips higher than Friday's opening. The pair dipped down to 1,2380 before retracing back up to 1,25 on buy orders and book squaring ahead of the Week end. Our bearish signal on the break of 1,2450 was not confirmed on the closing Friday but as long as the market stays below 1,2560 and 1,2610, we believe the market is still in a bearish mode. For today 1,2540-50 should offer some resistance and speculations of future ECB rate cut on March 4th meeting should pressure the pair on the downside. Next resistance at 1,2610-20. Technical analysis and chart patterns make us reconsider our bullish stand that prevailed in the last months. Our target is now 1,2000.

Data out today:

EZ PMI manufacturing Feb 09.00 GMT
UK CIPS purchasing manager's index Feb 09.30 GMT
UK net consumer credit Jan expected 1.2Bio 09.30 GMT
US personal income Jan expected 0,5% 13.30 GMT
US personal spending Jan expected 0,4% 13.30 GMT
US construction spending Jan expected 0,3% 15.00 GMT
US ISM manufacturing Feb expected 62 15.00 GMT

Gold around 399,50 , with WTI April at 36,05.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 109,20) stabilizing inside 108,90-109,70 despite overnight NIKKEY's 2% gains. Supports for the day at 108,80 then 108 while next resistance stands around 109,70. We are still neutral on the pair, talks in the market of players caught short trying to cover their positions should limit any downmove.
EUR/JPY (currently 136,80) dipped to 134,75 but was rejected ahead of our 134,50 target.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8740) following EUR/USD closely, is looking to test resistance at 1,8780 while support currently stands at 1,8660. We believe some further expectations of rate hike in UK will support the GBP.
EURGBP (0,6685) was rejected from 0,6710 last friday. The carry trade factor should be weighting on the cross. Although strongly oversold, EUR/GBP could easily visit the 0,6530 zone where support should start showing up.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Miami OMIL 07:59 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW eur/usd has hit the second retracement line but not penetrated so if this holds which I don�t think it should then 1.2580-85 is the next target IMHO. (/;->

London 07:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
yes I feel that also think it will be lead by Euro with $US strength for some reason or another.probably intervention threats or Bush making a deal with Schoder.

Dallas GEP 07:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
DD, first off usd/chf is mixed but is making new lows for today or WAS. Target is 1,2520 in my view.

Dallas GEP 07:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
JM, they all have times that you feel that you weren't treated exactly fairly. The secret I think is to KNOW what the quirks are with each one to see if you can live with those or not. I think automatic execution for example is VERY important. If you have a platform that constantly requotes you that issomething you probably can't live with if you are a daytrader and the market is moving fast.

Melbourne Qindex 07:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:48 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2416 - 1.2542 and the mid-point reference is 1.2479.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   

cu later... friends !!

Melbourne Qindex 07:50 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:48 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.241 - 1.2542 and the mid-point reference is 1.2479.

CT DB 07:49 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
closed euro long from 390 at 532,
will re-enter longs at 480

London DD 07:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning traders,
Dallas GEP 07:36 GMT March 1, 2004.
What is your downside target for USD/CHF. Thanks.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad when at 1.3344.
price now is on the important support.
I don't admire if price move up from here so far.
be carefull !! better you exit position your selling here.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 07:40 GMT March 1, 2004
better you contact Indonesia bahari about hang seng.
now I am in the forex division.

Nottingham 07:43 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Whether it holds or not, I think it's inevitable that 1.2580/85 will be tested this week

beijing road 07:41 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
DB: some saying might be right" the most dangerous place is the safest one,maybe itis pretty true as to eur/usd 1.23-1.24 level.

hong kong nt 07:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi -- did you sell hang seng? strategic sell at 14000 should work this month...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
london.
IMO : now is good.

Dallas GEP 07:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
No NOODDYG, that's true!!!!

beijing road 07:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
DB: Good trade. Even though I had a strong feeling that eur would bottom out at 1.23 level last week, i did not think it was a safe play to long eur b4 1.2520 level was seen. I just log on so i missed to buy at 1.25level.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:36 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
London.
I think for long term now is start to move to get 0.7606

Dallas GEP 07:36 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Short USD/CHF @ 1.2568

Spr NoodyG 07:30 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP does not reverse
....cos he needs to hit the fridge for a couple of stubbies...
just jesting

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:30 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
is it time to sell eur/usd when touch 1.2545 ?
be carefull, maybe price move down from here.

CT DB 07:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good morning forum,
beijing road 07:22,
I have added longs from 390, 420 and 480 on euro. I have had a position open from 580 (still open) on euro. My firm belief is that as long as 2330 holds, we will contine to see the euro rising. i am curious however as to the reason for longing at 30 and not waiting for a dip to 480 again?
tia

beijing road 07:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
just bought eur at 1.2532 stop at 1.2483.

Ldn 07:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FRENCH PRESS: French '03 Budget Deficit Hits 4.1% Of GDP

London 07:09 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
with your posts below in mind - your views for the Aud please if possible thank you

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hello !!
start to trade.
seen eur/usd ready down to get 1.2445 for minimum target.
price is on the way to get 1.2345 sell !!
gbp/usd ready to get 1.8425. sell !!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trade strategy for today 01 March 2004
By. Yustinus Andi Prasojo
All numbers here is BID Number

GBP/USD
Trend Down
a. Buy 1.8425 tgt 1.8595 stp 1.8410
b. Buy 1.8341 tgt 1.8528 stp 1.8325
c. Buy 1.8209 tgt 1.8425 stp 1.8190
d. Buy 1.8146 tgt 1.8380 stp 1.8330
e. Buy 1.8646 tgt 1.8701 stp 1.8630

f. Sell 1.8725 tgt 1.8683 stp 1.8735 (loss)
g. Sell 1.8949 tgt 1.8835 stp 1.8955
h. Sell 1.8831 tgt 1.8745 stp 1.8840
i. Sell 1.8743 tgt 1.8697 stp 1.8755 (done)
j. Sell 1.8778 tgt 1.8725 stp 1.8790
k. Sell 1.8803 tgt 1.8743 stp 1.8815
l. Sell 1.8815 tgt 1.8745 stp 1.8825
m. Sell !.8884 tgt 1.8803 stp 1.8898
n. Sell 1.8964 tgt 1.8842 stp 1.8975
o. Sell 1.9012 tgt 1.8884 stp 1.9025
p. Sell 1.9073 tgt 1.8925 stp 1.9085
q. Sell 1.9114 tgt 1.8964 stp 1.9125
r. Sell 1.9155 tgt 1.8990 stp 1.9170

EUR/USD
Trend Down
a. Sell 1,2526 tgt 1.2491 stp 1.2540 (done)
b. Sell 1.2532 tgt 1.2498 stp 1.2540 (done)
c. Sell 1.2568 tgt 1.2526 stp 1.2585
d. Sell 1.2579 tgt 1.2532 stp 1.2590
e. Sell 1.2601 tgt 1.2545 stp 1.2610
f. Sell 1.2629 tgt 1.2568 stp 1.2640
g. Sell 1.2669 tgt 1.2601 stp 1.2675
h. Sell 1.2695 tgt 1.2615 stp 1.2708
i. Sell 1.3042 tgt 1.2872 stp 1.3050
j. Sell 1.3070 tgt 1.2891 stp 1.3085


k. Buy 1.2445 tgt 1.2568 stp 1.2430
l. Buy 1.2345 tgt 1.2480 stp 1.2310
m. Buy 1.2322 tgt 1.2460 stp 1.2310
n. Buy 1.2258 tgt 1.2415 stp 1.2210
o. Buy 1.2238 tgt 1.2400 stp 1.2220
p. Buy 1.2118 tgt 1.2402 stp 1.2105
q. Buy 1.2088 tgt 1.2288 stp 1.2075
r. Buy 1.2045 tgt 1.2258 stp 1.2030
s. Buy 1.2022 tgt 1.2240 stp 1.2010

My best regards,
Raden Mas

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trade strategy for today 01 March 2004
By. Yustinus Andi Prasojo
All numbers here is BID Number

GBP/USD
Trend Down
a. Buy 1.8425 tgt 1.8595 stp 1.8410
b. Buy 1.8341 tgt 1.8528 stp 1.8325
c. Buy 1.8209 tgt 1.8425 stp 1.8190
d. Buy 1.8146 tgt 1.8380 stp 1.8330
e. Buy 1.8646 tgt 1.8701 stp 1.8630

f. Sell 1.8725 tgt 1.8683 stp 1.8735 (loss)
g. Sell 1.8949 tgt 1.8835 stp 1.8955
h. Sell 1.8831 tgt 1.8745 stp 1.8840
i. Sell 1.8743 tgt 1.8697 stp 1.8755 (done)
j. Sell 1.8778 tgt 1.8725 stp 1.8790
k. Sell 1.8803 tgt 1.8743 stp 1.8815
l. Sell 1.8815 tgt 1.8745 stp 1.8825
m. Sell !.8884 tgt 1.8803 stp 1.8898
n. Sell 1.8964 tgt 1.8842 stp 1.8975
o. Sell 1.9012 tgt 1.8884 stp 1.9025
p. Sell 1.9073 tgt 1.8925 stp 1.9085
q. Sell 1.9114 tgt 1.8964 stp 1.9125
r. Sell 1.9155 tgt 1.8990 stp 1.9170

EUR/USD
Trend Down
a. Sell 1,2526 tgt 1.2491 stp 1.2540 (done)
b. Sell 1.2532 tgt 1.2598 stp 1.2540 (done)
c. Sell 1.2568 tgt 1.2526 stp 1.2585
d. Sell 1.2579 tgt 1.2532 stp 1.2590
e. Sell 1.2601 tgt 1.2545 stp 1.2610
f. Sell 1.2629 tgt 1.2568 stp 1.2640
g. Sell 1.2669 tgt 1.2601 stp 1.2675
h. Sell 1.2695 tgt 1.2615 stp 1.2708
i. Sell 1.3042 tgt 1.2872 stp 1.3050
j. Sell 1.3070 tgt 1.2891 stp 1.3085


k. Buy 1.2445 tgt 1.2568 stp 1.2430
l. Buy 1.2345 tgt 1.2480 stp 1.2310
m. Buy 1.2322 tgt 1.2460 stp 1.2310
n. Buy 1.2258 tgt 1.2415 stp 1.2210
o. Buy 1.2238 tgt 1.2400 stp 1.2220
p. Buy 1.2118 tgt 1.2402 stp 1.2105
q. Buy 1.2088 tgt 1.2288 stp 1.2075
r. Buy 1.2045 tgt 1.2258 stp 1.2030
s. Buy 1.2022 tgt 1.2240 stp 1.2010

My best regards,
Raden Mas

Tallinn viies 06:45 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!

buying the euro today is adviced. stop at 1,2414. go for it
gl

Ldn 06:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040227-090437-1278r

-- German Chancellor Gerard Schroeder's remark Thursday that the EU may cut interest rates to counter a weak dollar is generating great interest. But it hardly mattered that Schroeder and President Bush barely discussed the issue during a Washington press conference Friday, because the economic tea leaves show the future pretty clearly: Bush will continue to let the market control the dollar, and the European Central Bank (ECB) will make the interest cut.

Mfld JM 06:36 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP -
You mentioned earlier that you have traded on 7 platforms. Have you found one yet that doesn't trade against you or manipulate the charts against you?

London 06:31 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
(reuters)The dollar advanced against the yen in Asia Monday after International Monetary Market data showed dollar-bullish positions outnumbered bearish positions late last month for the first time since August.

The IMM futures commitment of traders report showed that speculative dollar/yen positions flipped to net yen-short positions in the week to Feb. 24 for the first time since the week to Aug. 12.

"The IMM data may have startled some speculators into buying back dollar shorts," fueling the U.S. unit's climb against the yen Monday, said Mitsuo Imaizumi, deputy general manager at the foreign exchange department of Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.

The dollar's short-term outlook against the yen is brightening as the market has begun focusing on the U.S. economy's strength, while Japan's currency authorities continue to support the greenback and Japanese exporters have slowed the pace of their dollar sales, said Koji Fukaya, chief foreign-exchange analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

"Exporters seem to have already sold most of their dollar receipts for April to June through forward agreements, so they aren't under pressure to sell," Fukaya said.

Dallas GEP 06:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
KL no, I don't beleive there is a trader consistently good enough to call a SAR accurately most of the time. When signals start getrting moxed and I am up 20-30 pips, I will close more often that not and THEN see is signals clearly call for goind back the other direction.

Sydney gvm 06:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hey Vancouver - u just ruined my delayed viewing of the Oscars here in Sydney tonite !! ;-(

Dallas GEP 06:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yeah thanks OMIL, I took that under the " I'll take 30 and run" rule but chances are 60/40 it wil still short some IMO.

KL KL 06:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Tell me GEP do you reverse immediately after you close your short on Euro and GPB?? Appreciated your input and knowledge of your trading style!! Thanks

Miami OMIL 06:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP you starting pretty early good move. (/;->

Dallas GEP 05:54 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed euro short @ 1.2505 +30 pips

Tehran IRFX 05:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Madras KR:thank you

sg 05:39 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks SA.

SA newbie 05:35 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
SG . Go to control panel, double click on Java-plug in, go to cache and clear.

Madras KR 05:35 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Tehran IRFX 05:33 GMT .It should go up while above 1.2455/50.GL

Tehran IRFX 05:33 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
How do you think about EUR, everybody?

sg 05:28 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
sa, how to clean java cashe? TIA

vancouver jpb 05:19 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hey.... Lord of the Rings.... A clean sweap! This week should be good from here, finaly some friends get the the recognition for their awesome work! Over looked for two years, congrats Viggo & Pete.

Sydney bl 05:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK people just try to help each other

sa newbie 05:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I thought a forum where people actually try to help each other and exchange ideas about trading, problems etc. I would have thought problems with yr trading platform will fall under that. I apologise if my reply offended yr sense of what the forum should be.

HKG SK 05:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Is this a computer forum or a forex forum???

sa newbie 05:06 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi Martin, I once battled like crazy with the same problem. They offered the same solution. The problem at the end was my Java cache. Clean out yr cache and the problem might disappear. It certainly worked for me after I tried just about everything else u can think of. Hope it helps.

Saudi Arabia Gamber 04:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone.
once i saw a table that explain most of the important data releases and the effect of each one on the dollar, Pound, Euro ... etc.
can I have it please..

Melbourne Qindex 04:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 00:00 GMT March 1, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle References

Curve C : 1.2110* - 1.2171 - 1.2232 - 1.2293 - 1.2354* - 1.2416 - 1.2477 - 1.2538 - 1.2599*
EUR/USD : The 44-day cycle references are functioning actively beside the 22-day cycle.


Curve A : 1.2001 - 1.2127* - 1.2253 - 1.2378* - 1.2504 // ...


Curve B : ... // 1.2331* - 1.2376 - 1.2421 - 1.2466 - 1.2510 // 1.2554 ...


Curve C : ... 1.2110* // 1.2171 - 1.2232 - 1.2293 - 1.2354* - 1.2416 - 1.2477 - 1.2538 // 1.2599* ...

st. pete islander 04:26 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Martin, I had that experience. They kept insisting that it was my firewall. So, I shut it down for a couple minutes to log on 'naked' and it still didn't work. My firewall is in place and is 'trained' to accept the platform and I would think yours could be, too. Logging on without it will answer the question quickly, I believe. Good luck.

hong kong nt 04:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 04:02 -- hope you get well soon. take care...

Gold Coast martin 04:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hi everyone...i am trying get on to a live trading platform and after downloading the software and put in my id and password i cannot get in for some reason.I was told that it may be my anti virus soft ware that is preventing me from logging in.Any help anfd thoughts will be appreciated...

sf mike 04:13 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ab// rest man. I have asthma too. I have to asthma wife for more money to trade :-)

Wellington am 04:13 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Short NZD/USD 0.6921 Take .6800

sgp sp 04:11 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, get well soon., the mkt will still be here for you when u recover......

Miami OMIL 04:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Hope you get better AB. (/;->

hk ab 04:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// Today is a rest day for me. Suffering from flu + asthma.
GT to all.

Rye, NY et 03:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.2515;cut 1.2595;take 1.2385

GA TJ 03:55 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Removed Swissy orders. Calling it a night.

London 03:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Prices tumble, industry rocked by $A

TD Securities chief strategist Stephen Koukoulas predicted that there was already enough evidence from the slowing property market and falling rents to keep the RBA on hold for the forseeable future

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
To Paris with non ID.
I hope you get the profit from my garbage view.
gbp/usd have get my garbage number 1.8744 and eur/usd move up from my garbage low number 1.2371.
not imposible to get more 100 pips with stp 20 pips. I think that's not my lucky but my exact analysis.
next time.. see my garbage analysis hi Paris non ID !!

hong kong nt 03:40 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ab -- strength of yen crosses may lift euro to 20-day ma today...

Dallas GEP 03:23 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Stop on Eur/usd short now at entry 1.2535

GA TJ 03:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Just placed orders to Buy Swissy @1.2615, 1.2650 and 1.2700. Will cancel all if eye lids get heavy before trades executed. Ponder the Cable now.

Dallas GEP 03:19 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
BB on 30' is 1.2538 and 1.2462 on Euro. Support @ 1.2507 area (touched recently and bounced but only slightly), Next support @ 1.2475/80. Small doji's on candles indicating sellers coming in. Looks Bearish.

hong kong nt 03:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ab -- buy nikkei and sell DJI work better than expected...

Dallas GEP 03:09 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ML, Call the ball on the Aussie short and I will be in with you.

GA TJ 03:04 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEp

Was just the same thing on Swissy. But it will have to take out trend lines, EMA's (50 for one) but Slow Stochs favor a move up. If it takes out 1.2650 then I think 1.2750 is a very real possibility. Problem is its a little too obvious. EURO and Cable have the same scenario. Targeting Stops or a viable move?

Dallas GEP 02:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
SJS, technically that usd/chf stop needs to above 1.2650

ICT ML 02:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
heres some stuff I was preparing earlier when I should hve been trading......Bog picture stuff, and I could be wrong about these calls.

Aud/Usd: Looks like a weekly sell signal has began, next week candle will confirm or negate this....target is .7450 min if it confirms.
Eur/Usd: See Aussie above, tgt 1.1875-1.1925 area if confirmed
GBP/Jpy: Looks like another blue candle this week, then next week either a sharp selloff back to 201 area...or a strong break to 210 with a 217 overshoot possible, weekly channel tops.
Eur/Gbp: Hit my target of weekly channel bottom (which appears to be a bull flag from .5700 area in the big picture) BUT looks vunerable to falling to .6550 uptrend support, and maybe farther towards .6000. I'd expect it to bounce off the channel bottom this weekto .6750 maybe before it turns down again if it does.
GBP/Usd: This week decides if we see another bull run or not. We are right on the do or die line again as of Friday close. Could go either way from here, and with the euro looking weak to me, I suspect cable falls with it. BUT this scenario has failed before on this move. The daily chart says the weekly turnes into a sell signal next week....

All based off weekly charts, and don't know that I'd be attached to any particular positions the next few weeks until something breaksout.

Thoughts are welcome

Gen dk 02:41 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

mex sjs 02:36 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
shorting usdchf here at 1.2580 s/l 1.2640 tgt= 1.2460-80 area
gl & gt

ICT ML 02:31 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Farmacia....STOP CENTRAL right below here on swissy....could be ugly in London time if they get hit

melbourne farmacia 02:27 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Seems this swissy 1.2570 line will be the key today for euro etc...

Ldn 02:16 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD vulnerable to likely whippy EUR/USD ahead of ECB meeting Thursday, where market eyeing if bank will cut rates amid benign inflation, Macquarie Bank strategists.

Dallas GEP 02:00 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Saint 3, I think cable is more bullish than Euro. From a CHART standpoint it is a good short from 1.8760 But I am not sure I would trust it NOT to go long past that. I think alot of us are expecting perhaps some dips prior to longing on BOTH the Euro and the Pound.

LA saint3 01:53 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Gep ..
what is your view on cable?

Dallas GEP 01:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
In now @ 1.2535 eur/usd short, TP is @ 1.2480

Dallas GEP 01:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Ok I am doing a SELL order on Eur/USD @ 1.2535 which is upper BB and is I believe the high so far for this session. The EURO MAY NOT necessarily stop here tho so this positon is a layered one for me in that it is not as heavy as I would place if all the indicators were confirming a short.

melbourne O 01:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf now targeting 1.2450

Miami OMIL 01:18 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
This position is GEP. I am going to leave this one in the oven until it cooks or it burns lol. (/;->

Dallas GEP 01:12 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
WTH Omil, you a position trader now???? LOL Anyhow, I think this IS a good level for someone to start layering in Euro shorts but I could see the possibility of some 1.2580's later on. This current move up may just be a continuation of Friday's move.

Miami OMIL 01:06 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I forgot to mention that this is not a short-term (intraday) position. The intraday position shows bullish signs right now IMHO. (/;->

London 01:04 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Any intervention in currency markets by the New Zealand and Australian central banks to drive their currencies down should be coordinated.Investment bank HSBC's (HBC) chief economist in Australia, John Edwards, said in a research note Monday that New Zealand and Australia are small players on the world stage and could add to their firepower, authority and credibility by acting jointly. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are "very highly correlated" and "it would be ridiculous for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to act alone. If the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are not already talking about this possibility, they certainly should be," Edwards said. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's current foreign exchange reserve target is a range of 1.4 billion to 1.7 billion special drawing rights, a notional currency used by the International Monetary Fund. Actual reserves stand around 1.5 billion SDRs, which equates to NZ$3.6 billion. Australia's foreign exchange reserves are about A$35 billion. The potential for New Zealand to intervene in its currency market for the first time since the New Zealand dollar was floated in March 1985 has weighed on the local currency recently. New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen, in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires Feb. 19, gave his clearest hint yet that he is prepared to break with convention.

Edwards said that if the U.S. dollar resumed depreciating and the Australian dollar broke through US$0.81 and kept rising - it is currently around US$0.7750 - then the "timing and nature" of intervention would become the central issue.

The same would apply if the New Zealand dollar, currently around US$0.6880, again broke through US$0.70 and kept on appreciating, he said. In February, the New Zealand dollar hit a seven-year high of US$0.7102.
"There needs to be a widely shared sense that the currency has indeed overshot...the market conditions also need to be right. The perfect circumstance for interventions is when the market is very long and traders are overextended," he said.

"In this circumstance, the central bank can cause a great deal of injury to long positions in Australia and New Zealand dollars at relatively little cost.reuters/ap

Stockholm za 01:04 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY .. R & S Z......
Today :-
(8781-8736)-(8691-8677)-�[8618]�-(8559-8545)-(8500-8455)
Week :-
(8915-8840)-(8765-8742)-�[8644]�-(8546-8523)-(8448-8373)

Have a nice trading week every one .......

Miami OMIL 01:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have filled my order for short at around 1.2510 looking to test 1.2350-30 area. I am not confident that this eur/usd bull run will be held under 1.2580 but we will see how it reacts to that level first. Like GEP says NO PAIN NO GAIN so I put my chips down and we will see IMHO. (/;->

ICT ML 00:57 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP, not yet, hoping it will retrace to my BOD areas or close to them before LDN guys wake up....

ICT ML 00:56 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I would add, that 1.8685-8700 is the BOD support on this swing, and 203.75-204 same thing..they break, move is finished IMHO

GEP...AMEN on the platform post...I think the old "DEALERS GONE WILD" party on ML at one particular broker has been put to an abrupt halt...as they were very well behaved Friday NY session :->
thanks to help from a forum member who's identity shall not be revealed.

Ldn 00:54 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD to trade with heavier bias as markets position for possibility of Thursday ECB rate cut, says Macquarie Bank. Notes intervention threat still lingers.

Dallas GEP 00:54 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
So ML, are you long gbp/jpy NOW and also GBP/USD????

ICT ML 00:52 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
TJ...1.8840-75 is natural tgt on cabel from the swing signal I got Friday morning. Thsoe are worth 400-600 pips average....GBP/jpy...206.25 is tgt from same swing signal.....and I stand by 210 and a 217 overshoot before all is said and done...

Dallas GEP 00:51 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
My general feel that although the dollar bears have shown SOME retarcement, I beleive bias is still DOWN on euro and pound. I am looking for rallies to sell into especially the Euro.

Dallas GEP 00:48 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Listen guys and especially NEWBIES: I have traded on some 7 different platforms and it is VERY important to learn exactly the nuances of each platform in regards to thing such as HOW orders are filled and how STOPS and LIMITS are filled. If you work a demo account prior to working with real money, be AWARE that LIVE accounts will not necessarily be worked the same way by the trading desk as your demo account. The BEST to find out about these things is to ask the trading desk people EXACTLY their procedures. Also be aware that different sessions may bring about diffrent procedures with the SAME trading platform. DO NOT ASSUME you know the procedures, you HAVE to ask and make note of who you talked to. LOGIC does NOT necessarily prevail in these situations BUT if you know the procedures up front you can avoid surprises later.

GA TJ 00:44 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ML

Was just looking at the 60 Min Cable. Looks like it might be beating its head on the pervebial brick wall. There may still be some PIPS to be made on the Long side but I don't know how many. My stuff is still in serious conflict mode. What is your opinion/targets?

Same for GBPJPY.

Totally Flat for now.

london 00:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Economists at Royal Bank of Scotland say Europe remains laggard this year of global economy with growth not expected to exceed 2%, while Lehman Brothers' Klaus Baader reiterates he expects ECB to ease this week, according to item published on FT.com site titled "Lagging Europe may cut interest rates this week." reuter

melbourne farmacia 00:42 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ML - got a IT friend uploading for me later this week.

Sydney bl 00:37 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Sydney Joe thank you

Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:54 GMT February 28, 2004
EUR/USD : My 3-day cycle charts indicate that the market is likely to trade between 1.2439 - 1.2536 early next week. On Monday the critical level of my daily cycle is located at 1.2536 - 1.2561. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2289 // 1.2314 and the upper barrier is positioning at 1.2684 // 1.2709. Initially the market is going to trade between 1.2462 - 1.2512 in Asia time.


... 1.2265 - 1.2289 // 1.2314 ... 1.2363 ... 1.2413 - 1.2437 - (1.2462) - 1.2487 - (1.2512) - 1.2536 - 1.2561 ... 1.2610 ... 1.2660 - 1.2684 // 1.2709 ...

Dallas GEP 00:32 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Yeah ML as far as the charts go I think you are right. I have been told because IB rates NEVER were below 1.2475 that anything LESS than that was simply a intermediate rate that was untradeable.

ICT ML 00:30 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, you ever get your site to take your charts?

Sydney Joe 00:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 00:20 GMT March 1, 2004
I would consider taking the loss as Euro is heading for the 1.2750 today & that'll drag eur/jpy up to the 137.50 levels.

Dallas GEP 00:29 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
My platform claims 1.2476. Of course I had TP @ 1.2450 so THEY say TS basically.

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:26 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2505 1.2520 1.2538 1.2552 1.2567 1.2585 1.2615
LOWER BANDS 1.2475 1.2461 1.2442 1.2428 1.2413 1.2395 1.2365

st. pete islander 00:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 23:34 GMT

Geeezz! What's the fuss? I thought it was funny!

March is going to be a very good month, guys. Smile a little. gt

Miami OMIL 00:25 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
I show A L R O N lowest for the weekend is 1.2432 for eur/usd. (/;->

ICT ML 00:24 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
ditto on the flagpole for cable..tgt 1.8850-75, which I believe is where this swing dies into a trend line maybe

ICT ML 00:22 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY, possible bull flagpole target at 206.25 fwiw....

GEP, I think they may have reset the hi-lo at 4:00EST but not sure on that

Dallas GEP 00:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Andras, they will sat that price wasn't tradeable!!!

Melbourne Qindex 00:21 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to bibrate around 1.2512 with an expected magnitude of 25 pips for the time being, i.e. 1.2487 - 1.2512 - 1.2536.

Sydney bl 00:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
guys I have a short position of EUR/JPY at 135.90 any comment what shall I do now thanks

Dallas GEP 00:20 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Good Question Andras. GEFFTT shows a 1.2475 LOW for today though so WTF????

Pecs Andras 00:15 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP
So you did not get filled down at 2430?
Strange, because the chart that I am suing has the feed from our common broker. How come that the chart shows the spike down but the trading platform does not?

ICT ML 00:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...I was kicking myself Friday late......waited until 15 mins to close, and some big gun beat me to the punch on gbp/jpy. and I got a fill 30 pips under where I was trying to close it.....got out at 203.53...and planned to enter gagin if looked bid in Asia.....missed 100pips already

London 00:14 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Positioning changes on IMM in week to Feb. 24 surprised, says Westpac. Long JPY showed record 67,000 turnaround to net short position of around 12,000 contracts; on IMM alone represents $7 billion USD/JPY bought, and with pair rising toward 109-110 from 108 since survey taken, Westpac has "no doubt seen even more short USD/JPY position squaring since then." Suggests BOJ's JPY sales shifting market psychology. Adds next biggest short USD position adjustment occurred vs AUD, but positions remain substantially net long
reuters.

Miami OMIL 00:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
It is rare that you joke with us Farmacia maybe that is why the fellows did not understand (possible scenario). ML, look at it this way it could have gone the other way against you lol. (/;->

Dallas GEP 00:10 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Well I got the shaft on a eur/usd short so that's a -15PIP deal. No matter. Checking in to see what Early Asia might bring us.

Pecs Andras 00:08 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 00:03 GMT March 1, 2004
Sorry again for the mistake

ICT ML 00:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
WTH..........just checked a bit earlier and things looked still...now missed my reentry in the gbp longs by a good 50 -100 pips?..that is what I get for closing out at Friday I close guess

London 00:07 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Lagging Europe may cut interest rates this week
Financial times UK

"The year is less than two months old but is shaping up to be the best year for the global economy since 2000," according to economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

While RBS is upbeat with its latest global forecasts, it says that Europe remains the laggard this year with growth not expected to exceed 2 per cent.This week purchasing managers� index surveys for manufacturing (today) and services (Wednesday), data on UK consumer debt (today) and decisions on interest rates from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank (Thursday).The ECB�s March meeting of particular importance as the Governing Council will be presented with updated quarterly projections for the eurozone. Klaus Baader, of Lehman Brothers, says: "We maintain that the ECB will cut rates on Thursday."
The stronger euro is expected to reduce growth and inflation over the next two years but there are also short-term concerns. The ECB�s benign scenario of a gradually strengthening recovery in 2004 now looks less assured after eurozone gross domestic product growth weakened to 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.Leading growth indicators have wobbled and the expected shift from export-led growth to stronger domestic demand is not going to plan as consumption has failed to pick up.This week�s eurozone PMI surveys are likely to reflect a moderation in the pace of growth. Although the eurozone manufacturing PMI edged marginally higher in January, it remains much weaker than in the its UK or the US. In January, manufacturing activity in France did improve but the pace of improvement stalled in Germany and weakened in Italy. The eurozone service sector PMI, standing at 57.3 in January, is more buoyant. Again France led the way, pushing up to 60.1, but improvementappears to have paused in Germany and is decelerating in Italy.In the UK, manufacturing PMI is expected to ease back from January�s level of 56 but this would still signal robust expansion. New orders surged to their highest level for four years in January. For the service sector, the latest data show output expanded by 2.6 per cent in the final quarter of last year. A further improvement is expected in the early part of 2004 after the UK services PMI rose to 59.8 in January to signal the fastest expansion since mid-1997.

However, opinions diverge strongly on the path of rates from here. Michael Hume, of Lehman Brothers, says: "We expect a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee in May 2004 but no change further out. This reflects our view that domestic demand growth will weaken in the second half, driven by a slowdown in the consumer sector."
FT.com

melbourne farmacia 00:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Just a joke guy's .. move on.

SG Jay 00:05 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Do you think its a good time to short gbp againt the usd ?

Miami OMIL 00:04 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
BTW Farmacia thank you for your generosity in sharing with all of us here in the forum. (/;->

Dublin CK 00:03 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras

No worries, its a contender for the golden raspberries.

Gt/Gl

Dublin CK 00:02 GMT March 1, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 23:58 GMT February 29, 2004

I think u got the wrong person.