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Forex Forum Archive for 03/02/2004

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Tallinn viies 23:57 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
after eurousd formed double top formation selling pressure increased. yesterday neckline finally gave away. double top target right now 1,1830. knowing that occilators are pointing down and also moving averages crossed lower euro must survive increasing selling pressure to maintain long term uptrend. first target I have in mind is 1,1970/80 which is 61,8% retracement level from the last huge move up.

Gold Coast martin 23:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
aud down to 7580 as previously posted....will move further down to 7510 before posting a high of 7620...timespan:2 hours into ny session

Ldn JJ 23:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Fed fund futures reacted modestly overnight to Greenspan comments on interest rates, pricing in about 38% chance of 25bp hike at June 30 FOMC vs about 28% beforehand
reuters

melbourne farmacia 23:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
0.7578 Aud/usd is an important pervious fibo projecton level from 0.6340 base fwiw.

London London 23:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex ok but prefer to wait till the GDP figures out in half hour if bad think aud is mince meat .

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 23:19 GMT March 2, 2004
That is called discipline and that is one of the tools needed to survive this business good move.

Melbourne Qindex 23:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
London London 23:23 GMT - The market has not reached the "oversold" condition in my system.

London London 23:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex doyou see Aud a bit oversold at the price now , and best to wait if possible for blip above 76 40 thanks

Tallinn viies 23:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
rules are rules. promised myself to close long euro and go short with todays close.

SR at 1,2210. stop 1,2374. target 1,19sh.
cu tom
over n out
need to sleep

Melbourne Qindex 23:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP 23:14 GMT - You are welcome. Good trade.

Melbourne Qindex 23:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 23:06 GMT - It is better to wait and see. All market makers are very active.


Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT February 22, 2004
EUR/USD : I have a feeling that there will be a panic selling if we don't see enough buying interest at 1.1836. Basically if there is a strong downward movement of EUR/USD it is likely to consolidate around 1.1575 - 1.1863.

... // 1.1575* - 1.1671 - 1.1767 - 1.1863 - 1.1959* // ...Melbourne Qindex 02:54 GMT February 22, 2004
EUR/USD : It is reasonable to believe that a lot of fund managers would like to take their profit and square part of their long positions on EUR/USD when the market is trading below 1.2727. Apparently the road towards 1.3495 was blocked at 1.2930 for the time being. The mid-point reference of 1.1959 - 1.3495 is 1.2727.

London 23:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
MMS see the trading range for the Euro now changed to 119 -123 and gearing down their weak dollar policy now due to the Election soon

LAX-LGB SNP 23:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
many thanks Dr.Q for the AUD$ advice ... it has a lot of catching up to do

OMIL - the way i see it, losing @ last station is ok if we ca$h in on all the rest

Sydney alimin 23:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
with big selling eur/usd like this, are we still in bullish mode mid term?

Melbourne Qindex 23:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Porto PJT 22:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 22:21 GMT , thx vies, i am short already but with some concern above 9.30.

Ldn 22:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Australian Performance of Services Index falls 2.2 points to 53.9 points in February from January as impact of rate hikes late 2003, strong AUD hit home, say compilers Australian Industry Group and Commonwealth Bank. AIG chief executive Heather Ridout says though national accounts data due later today will likely show economy performed strongly 4Q03, PSI suggests growth may already be slowing

AP

saloniko 2004 nk 22:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..
EURO/USD|Nov 7 (1.1415): Euro set to rally to 1.2150 -Click on "View Sample of Daily Forecasts" button above.
Dec 22 (1.2390):Euro has rallied to 1.2438 so far but is expected to correct back to retest 1.2350 on Monday. Break under that level would see a move down to the 1.2300/1.2115 range before upside resumes to 1.3000 target.
Feb 16(1.2728):Correction from double-top just short of 1.2900 should hold 1.2670/60 (1.2630 maximum) this week before a final push up toward 1.3000 target area. This is likely to be a *Major Top* and lead to a decline to 1.2000 initially, enroute to 1.1200 - see chart below. Break under 1.2560 confirms top is in place.
Feb 26(1.2510):Euro topped at 1.2925 -just short of long term target area. Resistance around 1.2600 should contain now as decline continues to 1.2365/35 trendline support - see chart below. Only break above 1.2715 cancels bearish outlook.

WAS a mistake of me didnt search fxnews..lol

Good Night..time for bed ;)

nk


GVI john 22:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
We are hearing that there is another email worm out there, in the past 12 hours or so. I have no details but heard some companies have completely shut down their email systems. Amazing how fast they propigate...

Melbourne Qindex 22:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 22:34 GMT - You are welcome. See details later in my page later on AUD/USD. I am running further analysis on this pair.

Tallinn viies 22:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 22:33 - of course we are

Chicago YM 22:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thank you Q

Chicago YM 22:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Are we going to go down further?

Melbourne Qindex 22:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Heading towards 0.7546 - 0.7556.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Doing pretty good, riding the train until it stops SNP. I will post further details on the help forum.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ldn out yet?

GVI john 22:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
RBA unchanged as expected. No surprise.

Ldn 22:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
An index measuring Australian service industries fell in February from January as the impact of rate hikes late last year and the strong Australian dollar hit home, the compilers said Wednesday. The Performance of Services Index dropped 2.2 points to 53.9 points in February, marking its second consecutive monthly fall, according to the Australian Industry Group and Commonwealth Bank
abc

LAX-LGB SNP 22:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
am having a lotta fun today ... trust the same is with ya OMIL
re: your DPO i never heard of it - care to exemplify ?

P.S. matter of time before AUD and CAD catch up with their big brethren

ldn 22:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
RBA 6mins

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nk// good morning, I am happy to wait for the 200 dma to full load the eur.

london 22:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
is the RBA decision in 10 minutes? please confirm. cheers

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD seldom attacks during thin hr. Usually eur does. When it comes, it means the trading mentality (s/t-m/t) might be changing now......


geez... I picked the broken goose......

saloniko 2004 nk 22:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

Yes ...someone did a good work..

Lucky Zorro cash his profit..

nk

Tallinn viies 22:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
PJT - personally trying to get short euro there...
unfortunatelly traders from scandinavia still buying euros....

basically Im little bit afraid we may get over 9,30 and then there all kind of orders you know

London 22:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
FDIC Study: Home Price Drop Unlikely When Mtge Rates Rise

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What happened to cad? are we waiting for japs to execute the button?

nt// if cad is now just delayed then, I think it will be the most bloody.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What happened to cad? are we waiting for japs to execute the button?

nt// if cad is now just delayed then, I think it will be the most bloody.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
If you look at eur/gbp daily chart, it is what worries most eur bulls.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone!
Wow it's just 6 hrs!!
I really can't imagine my eyes witness this!!

chf is at 1.29xx already...
CHEERS!

GVI john 21:57 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2225…. $/yen 110.10
DJIA 10,591, -87 pts…NASDAQ 2,040, -18 pts
10-yr 4.04%, -1 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI....

Porto PJT 21:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies , your view on eur/sek please.

Chicago YM 21:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone expect aud/usd to short when the RBA announces decision?

Tallinn viies 21:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
after this trading day ends I would be papa bear for down to 1,19. reference point for me is 1,2330/70. in front that level Im selling easily...

London 21:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Westpac Banking Corp. recommends clients buy the yen against the euro as it expects Japan will benefit more than the euro zone from a global economic recovery and attract more foreign investment
Westpac joins Goldman. Sachs & Co. and Bear, Stearns & Co., which both recommended buying the yen and selling the 12-nation European currency this week

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aCyrHNDrLYj0&refer=asia

Ldn 21:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Reuters
Chart patterns foretell additional dollar gains
CHICAGO, March 2 (Reuters) - The euro dropped through key technical support on Tuesday in a wild ride lower that augurs to many analysts a lasting trend shift that could see the single currency below $1.20 (EUR=) in the near term

LINK

London 20:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Reuters
Dollar strength hits Treasuries, Greenspan no help
A continued climb in the dollar would ease the pressure on Asian exports that has prompted offshore central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan, to buy huge quantities of dollars over the past year.

Since much of that cash has found its way to the safe-haven of U.S. government debt, less intervention would likely mean less interest in Treasuries.

"The dollar is rallying on its own right, so that reduces the impetus for the Bank of Japan to intervene," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak & Co.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan rattled the market further when he said that interest rates will have to rise "at some point," which some investors interpreted as a red flag for an eventual shift in monetary policy.
Fed fund rates at 1 percent are the lowest since 1958, and analysts expect the central bank to start tightening policy at some point this year as the economic recovery strengthens

mex sjs 20:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thanx nottingham....am long from 3403 sl at be, so i will wait to see for a reaction, not much to loose, thanx again...

Gold Coast martin 20:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
sorry got my time zones wrong....

nyc jk 20:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
actually RBA is at 9.30 am local time, 5.30 pm EST.

Gold Coast martin 20:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
RBA data 9.30 eastern standard time

Barcelona JP 20:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Closed short USD/CHF: +7 pips

lon j 20:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
could someone tell me in how many hours the RBA will make its decision. cheers

Melbourne Qindex 20:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 20:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ALP romps home in latest poll
Mark Latham is now the most popular Opposition leader since Bob Hawke in 1983 and would have led Labor to a crushing win had an election been held last weekend, the latest Herald-ACNielsen poll smh.

Melbourne Qindex 20:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Use the weekly cycle analysis for reference today.

Melbourne Qindex 20:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
The following is still a good reference in Asian session.

Melbourne Qindex 01:24 GMT March 2, 2004
USD/JPY : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 107.89 // 108.14 - (108.39) - 108.63 - 108.88 - 109.13 - 109.38 - (109.62) - 109.87 - 110.12 // 110.37 ...

London 20:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin thanks BC probably correct then range 70 75 nearterm

london cam 20:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thanks

Nottingham 20:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs 20:04 GMT

firstly buy on rumour sell on fact rate play...delving deeper into to this with euro weak and break supports day by day safer to long cad against euro rather than usd (since here also critical levels)...secondly I think there are a few billion other reasons why usdcad cross persistantly closes at/below key resistance...depending on the size of fund/s I think there will be one more week of this maximum before either it ends in tears for this fund/s or alternatively they force longs to liquidate by eventually piercing downside supports...technically capable of seeing two or 300 pips either way within a day's trade given the amount of liquidation that will need to take place on either side...add to this the speculative element that will undoubtedly piggyback the ride and you have an a potentially huge day coming up within the next week or so imo...gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 20:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:06 GMT March 2, 2004
EUR/JPY : Heading towards 134.10 - 134.41.

Gold Coast martin 20:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
as posted before whether the RBA increase or stay-put on rates it will not have as much impact on the aud as the uridashi deals are having and will continue to have.If RBA rate stays same dollar will drop to 7580 range ..the Real drop will happen progressively over the next 3-4 sessions as uridashi deals decrease.....So it would not be wise to be holding any long or medium positions on the AUD.In fact short term positions are looking untradeable right know.....

NEW YORK RP 20:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
london cam 20:06 GMT March 2, 2004
w w w . j s m i n e s e t . c o m
Good source and great views.
GL

london bart 20:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hi guys what was low eurjy pls?

nyc tony 20:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
eurcad selling

london cam 20:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK RP 19:44 GMT March 2, 2004
thanks for the info. interesting read. grateful if you could let me know where I can find that stuff and jim sinclair's commentary

mex sjs 20:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
any opinion why usdcad is nearer the low of the day? why it has not moved not even close to 1.3500? TIA

London 20:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin Whats your view on a Rate hike today RBA
think that if they dont move the Aud could fall quite rapidly to 7550?

Gold Coast martin 20:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thank you nottingham...g/l g/t

Nottingham 19:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
RBA rate announcement at 9:30 local (10:30gmt)

NEW YORK RP 19:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I was surprised to see Greenspan make reference to the Yen today.W/O intervention the Yen would have been stronger but wouldnt say what level. He aslo said that the $650 Billion in purchases of Dollars couldnt last forever. It sure looks like AL wants to tap the Yen stronger w?o getting caught in the kitchen.
Fundamentally nothing has changed in the last week. All that moved the markets were words. Interest rates and intervention. It is hard to see how any of these issues would changer the longterm diection of the dollar and the TIPLE DEFICITS.
FWIW It sure looks like Jim Sinclair has some good #s worth looking at :

CFTC Data March 1 2004

AUD net long down 36% to 21347
CAD net short at 6776
CH net long down 53% to 5374
EUR net long down 7% to 26267
GBP net longs up 4% to 21076
JPY 55198 net longs now transformed to 12181 net short

With that being the case the markets now are comfortably providing a 2 way market. I dont think it will last longer than 2 to 3 more weeks at the most.
Good luck.

Gold Coast martin 19:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know the time of the federal bank of australia official release on interest rates?

Ldn Hat 19:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Cranberry, soory for the late reply, I hope you went along with me on the GBP/USD short. Anyways Thanks

London 19:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Middle Eastern names turned sellers of EUR/USD today, an ominous sign,
as they have been notorious buyers on dips these last many months. Greenspan
argued that EUR strength was not a function of Asian intervention forcing USD
adjustment elsewhere; an academic exercise, but interesting none the less,he
also opined that US rates would have to be adjusted to a more neutral rate,1.2160 is important support for EUR/USD ahead, the 50% retracement of the
1.1380/1.2925 move.
IFr

leeds jb 19:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
new to forex just got a demo acc, dose the market commentry or news give you a more clear insight if you have a live account? i think ineed to be pointed in the right direction!

Barcelona JP 19:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
And I lost 150 pips. And I spent two weeks learning without any trade at all. Just demoing.

Barcelona JP 19:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Lagos

"I had always limited myself to a fixed number of pips per day"

That's the best. Don't get down, just try to think.

One day, I lost 150 pips when my stop is never above 50. The price was against me all the time and I said to me: "You are right". Once it got a few pips of my stop I moved it to 75 and so on until 150.
Once it got there, the price gone down to my entry.

Oakland Daimyo 19:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Athens 19:09 Much apprecitated. Trying to layer in some med-term positional trades (markdown cycle). GT

Oakland Daimyo 19:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Please note section starting w/ EUR/USD is me speaking. Just to clarify.

Barcelona JP 19:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 19:05 GMT March 2, 2004

NO. I follow my ema crossover with filters. I'm aware of it's raining and that's why I say what I said.

The same system gave me today 450 pips and only a lost of 30. And now 2 in usd/cfh.

Athens 19:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
In my weekend analysis (excerpts of which were posted here on Sunday) I pointed out that the EUR/$ weekly support line had already been broken and it would be an upside test if the unit rebounded back to 1.2525-35. This move was seen yesterday and it was a clear EUR failure pointing to serious weakness ahead. It didn't take too long to confirm the big picture, the analysis read: "The very wide long term upward sloping channel has its lines coming in at 1.1475 and 1.3030 with the theoretical mid line around 1.2250." That mid line was not only reached but exceeded. Big targets ahead are 1.2145-50 and 1.2100 but at the moment all major currencies are O/S against the Dollar (more so the CHF in the mid to high 1.29's), therefore corrective retracements should be expected. Some contra trading should also be considered in the very short run. But, bottom line, my expectation for a stronger USD has now been justified. Good luck all.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 19:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
So is it time to buy Euros for longs or hold off a bit for 1.20 to come?

Rivonia PipPirate 19:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 19:02 Good stuff. Off for dinner. Later.

Oakland Daimyo 19:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Excuse me BC for quoting you but I think specs should keep this in mind especially as chatter is high right now.

shanghai bc 11:10 GMT February 27, 2004

DOR -- Good evening..There is a big bull looking after 1.2300-1.2350 region ..They were lucky yesterday but may not be that lucky today..Huge arm-wrestling has been going on for two days already..Once 1.23 line goes 1.22 line may provide some good bounce up to 1.2350..Good trades..

EUR/USD Adjustment period (Distribution cycle) I've been speaking on since the beginning of the year will likely continue however aggressive short strats at this level is not recomended. R/R should be kept in mind. You should already be aboard this ride. Med-term position players relax and enjoy markdown phase. Look for next victims.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hello friends.
today gbp/usd ive you level for buy longterm.
buy here to get 1.9500 with stp 1.8300.
I predict price will continue the uptrend from low today to get there. I will copy this view when have meet 1.9500

CT DB 19:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 18:55,
so u trying to pick a bottom, are not convinced, and so place less at risk because u are against the trend!
I love the phsychology of this game. (LOL)

Lagos Styrax 19:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thats quite thoughtful of you GEP and JP
I really appreciate it.
Though not as if losing the money is a problem but getting derailed in my focus and objective for the trading is the most painful part of it.
I had always limited myself to a fixed number of pips per day and no matter how the market behaves I stop, but today was just different with all manners of analysis flying around.
I wish I had known better...

SF MRZ 19:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
today , loss three trades, won three trades, but still ahead.

CT DB 19:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 18:40
I had long euros from 390, 420 and 480 which i closed at 530.
i also had a long euro from 580, i closed that at 320, and offset against the others represents a small win.
I shorted cable today at 1.8580 and closed a short while ago at 1.8390.

Barcelona JP 19:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Right GEP.

But the important here is to have a "system".

SF MRZ 19:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
15 Pips trail is very good!!! imho:>

Barcelona JP 18:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Lagos Styrax

Today got 450 pips. Lost 30 in cable. And now 0 in chf.

The problem here is that we must trade what we see and forget about what gurus say.

Stick to your system and the way you trade.
Place stops and do not overtrade.

Dallas GEP 18:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
STY, we all have bad days. I would just pause for now and reflect on things that are ALOT more important than trading currencies. "The road to Success is paved with failures"

PAR 18:57 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Bougth some GBP to benefit from extremely high UK interest rates. Looking for bounce to 1.8500 by tomorrow.

Barcelona JP 18:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CT DB

You have to look at how market feels. If you go long against trend, you can be killed in a second. So, that's why I said once you have 15, trail to entry.

Dallas GEP 18:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I am going to go mess around with some cars now. This market was like trying to change a tire on jack stands while the wheels are still moving. You go the wrong direction and you would be thrown Instantly to the ground!!! LOL Don't assume the movement is over for today BTW!!!! Chow!!!

Lagos Styrax 18:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Today is the worst of all in my days of trading.
I'm short of crying seeing promising possies going down into torrential of losses.
Who can console me?!
I think I should go or maybe I should enter more possies....

Ldon 18:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan statement that monetary policy has been accommodative for some time. he is a hawk when it comes to inflation and dont think he is comfortable with rate that low.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
So when would Greenie raise rates as he indicated? Is this just to console Frankfurt or wonder if he actually means it. That would make USD stronger still...uh...

Rivonia PipPirate 18:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 18:32 Howzit going DB, good to see you'r still in there kicking. Did you manage to squeeze out yor long Euro possie?

NY EMIRAGE 18:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
You have mail GEp...
Thanks ICT ML ...

Dallas GEP 18:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CCY's are in the oxygen tent getting a breather!!! LOL

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CT//

That's exactly what others say at Karoll: new highs talking 1.35+ here. Confirmation for such an idea will be subsequent rise above 1.2539 and a very strong medium term rise should be seen with potential target 1.35-1.40.

http://www.karoll.net/en/services/analysis/eur/daily/

So I'm no expert by a long shot (pun intended), I'm just waiting for the floor to surface (1.20?) so we can take a breather then enjoy a nice downslide of the USD to 1.35+.


Leva anka 18:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
After a sharp decline, EUR makes a "marginal" new low, Asia session or early London berore retracement

Ldn 18:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Greenspan is preparing market for a hike--During audience Q&A, Greenspan says the the Fed will have to raise fed funds target from its current 1.0% at some point. He also said that monetary policy has been accommodative for some time.

Dallas GEP 18:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ML, Thanks!!!

Jay you have mail!!!!

Dallas GEP 18:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Good Question!!! For me a tight stop is 15-25 pips above or below entry

CT DB 18:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hello PipPirate, long time no hear!

Barcelona JP - how do you allow a run if u place a stop "10 pips" behind once u in the money?!

Dallas GEP 17:59,
"1,2207 short tight stop" Please define a tight stop? I find myself using everlarger stop losses to allow for runs.

I dont think we will see much more downside beyond 1.2000. base should form soon and unless there is a major surprise in the next few days from data and ecb, euro should continue to stregthen to make new high. aimho

gl & gt to all

ICT ML 18:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Emirage....thats cool with me. Congrats.

SF MRZ 18:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Long Eur/$ target 1.2237 for 1.2208 entry, 1.2191 Cut loss

NY EMIRAGE 18:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML
I quit my job and i am making a living off of this system.
Thats all i can say before Jay starts emailing me....

Gold Coast martin 18:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
dont worry about volumes quito...just keep exchanging those bank cheques in banana land it is safer than trading in this market at the moment..

ICT ML 18:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP...well, that message was "just in time"...so you missed out ..sorry :-)

Dallas GEP 18:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Emirage, that's done.

ML, just now have been able to get in EMAIL

Quito Ecuador Valdez 18:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have a clue as to what VOLUME the EUR/USD is enjoying at the moment?

Tallinn viies 18:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
doubled my euro position at 1,2219. fwiw

Dallas GEP 18:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Out on Eur short @ 1,2222 -15 pips.

ICT ML 18:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Emirage.....hows that super duper top secret holy grail formulae working out?....haven't seen you around to ask, so curious about it.

Barcelona JP 18:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Done it. Lets see.

SF MRZ 18:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - Eur/$ @ 1.2212 = monthly trading point

ICT ML 18:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
time for a liquid lunch and a nap...see ya :->

Ina* mr.co'z 18:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
correction : tp @ 1.8460..sorry !

NY EMIRAGE 18:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hello all....

GEP I hope you remember me. I need to ask you something very important. please email me at: [email protected]

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Qindex hit it on the nail again looks like 1.2190 will hold for now congratulations on another very good call on eur/usd.

Barcelona JP 18:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
You are wright.

But we must wait a little more to short CHF

Ina* mr.co'z 18:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
longed cable tp @ 1.8640 stop at 1.8300 ..gl/gt !

Gold Coast martin 18:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
as previously posted aud down to 7580......Uridashi deals will cause further drop to .75..

Rivonia PipPirate 18:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP No sweat pal, just pullin your leg:-) Chf looks like it is begging to get shorted, seldom punches thru ma envelope without a nice retrace imo

Stockholm za 18:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:40 GMT....... you should have quoted him........ lol .........

Barcelona JP 18:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate

Sorry, PipPirate. But my system gave a buy signal. Once we had 10 pips, we'd have placed stop at entry.

nyc tony 18:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Boca/ The goose has been a positional traders dream since 1.27!! My book has 8 lots below 1.30 to prove it!

Dallas GEP 17:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1,2207 short tight stop

Rivonia PipPirate 17:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP For you I kill the bull, for your sister I kill you, and for taking your last call I kill myself :-}

Barcelona JP 17:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
My hedge worked ok

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP retracement levels are now at 1.2330-35, 1.2370-75 and 1.2410-20 area, if this holds. Which will give you plenty of time to long when it is confirmed and get your usual 30 pips later today IMHO.


KL KL 17:51 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I think I will ride this cable down and then up should close somewhere near 1.85 at least....a bit sleepy and not really worried. US dow is down today...so something has to go up

Barcelona JP 17:49 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Stop hit in cable

Dallas GEP 17:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
No problem JP!!! Just send me some Lladro Porcelin and we will call it even. I like the one of the HUGE Unicorn Please!!! LOL

Livingston nh 17:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
According to G'span we are just "coin-tossers"// he is a random walk market knows all guy -- this is some speech

Mfld JM 17:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
It's not funny. I followed that possie!

nyc jk 17:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
well whoever it was just recommended buying GBP @ 1.8410 and is about to get stopped out so glad its not you haha

Barcelona JP 17:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sorry about that, GEP.

I wrote GEP for JP.
Sorry

Dallas GEP 17:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
No I am not sure who posted Barcelona GEP!!!! LOL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ML, lead us not into temptation. I bet you have a naked picture of the cable’s daily chart on your wall LOL.

Dallas GEP 17:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Out @ 1,2227 +10

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Like I said Gepster is everywhere today LOL.

ICT ML 17:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
out of cable shorts now, bouncing off the daily bottom BB, and ema50, so I'll leave it be for now......weekly views posted Sunday Asia are pretty clear now I think....

Earlier in London time, gbp/jpy was trying REAL hard to seduce me into a long position above 204.....I mean she just kept coming on to me...LOL....but thank God I saw the the trap and closed the chart down to not be tempted anymore!....

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
KL//

Look back in the archive for yesterday. GEP clearly told me last night that we'd see 1.22-1.21 in the not too distant future. I asked him if it was time to long yet after the dollar hike a bit ago...and again he put his foot on my desk and said in capital letters hollered NO. That was after the Dollar hike! And he was right again. He's got the gut feel for this we all respect. And where are we now and where is this going? I'd bet with GEP...1.20

You might breeze thru the archives to catch up if you miss some forum material, it's handy I tell ya! :) Today's and yesterday's leastwise.

nyc jk 17:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP you are in Dallas and Barcelona at same time? man you are fast......

Nottingham 17:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
euro...2nd o/s was 1.2210...target would be 1.2240/45
eurcad...1st o/s 1.6360 2nd 1.6310

KL KL 17:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Added to cable on 1.8385....for once I am going to average up ...need to get out of mentality of averaging down!!!...look to add more later for 1.8550 target!!

Tallinn viies 17:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Igro - have a nice year pal!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP if 1.2190 is taken for eur/usd then 1.2155-50 area will be tested fast. Even with the intraday indicators in O/S territory. You might have pulled the trigger to fast but you are lucky at that so you might be picking up your pips (30 pips) before Europe wakes up today if it holds up.

CT DB 17:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:25,
gooday forum,
GEP- not that risky unless u playing without a stop, u say your stop in 25 pips below entry, so what u r saying is that the risk reward is high!
GL & GT master bottom picker (LOL)

Hou 17:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
17:31 US FED: Greenspan Focuses on FX in Address to Economists ]

Barcelona GEP 17:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
To be safe, USD/CHF should go south to get long in CABLE.

So, ones I get the signal, I'll say it.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 17:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Washington DC//

Here is the calendar for today that Jay posted yesterday:
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2004
23:00 GMT- AUS- Reserve Bank Meeting
00:30 GMT- AUS- NAB Business Survey
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Producer Prices: vs. +0.1% in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Unemployment rate: vs. 8.8% in Nov
11:00 GMT- UK- Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey

AS to Greenie's content, dunno.

B.A. BOCA 17:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
dolcad is a positional trader's dream right now. once the cross selling clams down, we could see 1,41 printed with our easter eggs.

Barcelona GEP 17:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Cable is doing better.

Be ready. Don't go yet

Pecs Andras 17:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 17:24 GMT March 2, 2004
Put it very nicely.
And, you are also right, mate! LOL

Tor Pumpkin 17:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Tempus, Gspan up in 1 minute, speaking on the current account.

prauge viktor 17:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
gep do u think that mr greenspeech it will have a reaction on the usd leve for tonight thanks once again

nyc jk 17:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP - picking bottoms is a very smelly business!

Barcelona GEP 17:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Take care, take care.

No signals to go long yet. No signals to go long yet.

Dallas GEP 17:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Note: I have quite a few PIPS to play with reagrding these possies so I reiterate, these longs are RISKY!!!!!!

Wash DC Tempus 17:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What time does Greenspan deliver speech?
and does anyone know subject matter?

TIA

nyc tony 17:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
very weird day. lost -68 on eur stopped at 2320. out of this mkt 4 now

Dallas GEP 17:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
This is picking a bottom but WTH??? Longed Euro @ 1.2217 with stop @ 1.2191. This is RISKY so BEWARE

Ldn 17:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 17:11 agree with your levels 1.19 area for Euro before any further high is seen . and probably before friday.

L.A. Igrok 17:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 17:17 GMT March 2, 2004///

Sorry, pal. My bets are in the market. For childish games get yourself a bookie.

hong kong nt 17:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab -- my wife and i just did some medium term study on eur/gbp, we guess 0.650-0.700 may hope for rest of 04'...

vancouver jpb 17:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Lets hope Greenspan's chat can save some of our asses

Barcelona JP 17:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Ready to go long?

I'll give the signal. S/L of 30 pips.

KL KL 17:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What a day !! Long Pound now 1.8367...just too low. will see it to 1.8550 and then wait and see.Right now all currency in limbo land short term....mid to long term suggest this is very close to bottom and can get vicious UP from now risk/reward better on the long side for me!! No one knows what tomorrow can bring...almost all indicator now telling bounce immenent ...but have been like that 2 hours ago.......just shows you no tech. indicator any good....still give wrong signal and need to rely on gut feel!!

Dallas GEP 17:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Helps to be ambidextorous OMIL!!! LOL I don't do a very good job of keeping up though in these conditions

Dallas GEP 17:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Out @ 1.8372 on Short pound (Loss)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP you must have about ten hands there. You take and exit positions left and right. If that was not enough you also post the positions and have time to baby-sit us on the forum. Way to go Jedi Master good trading.

Wellington am 17:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
great buying EUR/USD.

Newcastle GH 17:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Valdez

I'll email you regarding the platform.

Tallinn viies 17:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 17:11 - no its not. we gonna see 1,34. do you wanna bet?

sf mike 17:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
It seems the only pair waiting for Greenspan is usdjpy.

Helsinki iw 17:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
One seldom sees hourly stochs and bollinger bands flash such
o/s conditions as now, yet the market shows no signs of
stabilizing. Very heavy long term positions are experiencing
max pain today. Fear is the only driving force stronger than
greed.

Dallas GEP 17:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Will take profit 1.8337

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What a day and I thought it was going to be a dull one. Well the 1.2230 support did not hold and the 1.2190 area is in the spotlight next with 1.2155-50 retracement level in sight. I seriously doubt that it will reach it in this move but who knows. I will have to figure out the retracement levels again as this market is definitely alive and kicking at the moment.

Dallas GEP 17:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Back cable @ SHORT @ 1.8362

Pecs Andras 17:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Nice trade, even if the close was too early:-)

prauge viktor 17:11 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks Gep

L.A. Igrok 17:11 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
It seems that 1.30 level on the EUR/USD is out of picture for this year from now on. The next pit-stop is likely to be at 1.19-18 area with some consolidavide dancing around, before another push to 1.08. The parity once again becomes an attractive point, which I don't expect to see this year though.
USD/JPY is likely to have a problem to get above 115.20 on the first approach.
USDX is set for a run to 102.50 longer-term.
EUR/USD likely to go down faster than USD/JPY will go up.
EUR/JPY points at 122.00-50 over the next 5-6 months.

Dallas GEP 17:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Closed Pound short @ 1.8380

Dallas GEP 17:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, this is moving too fast to update. Once levels are BROKE you have to IMMEDIATELTY short and that is too risky for most IMO.

Pecs Andras 17:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Finally AUD and NZD are also giving in

Dallas GEP 17:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Shorted pound @ 1.8400 too fast to post

ICT ML 17:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
got a TP set at 1.8330 bid area, daily ema50 should stop this falling cable train cold for a bit.

FRA Gustav 17:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I had a great dream vacation while my EUR long positions went (and still going) through nightmare times.

Was reading lot of words about rebound to 1.2850+++ but market seems to ignore the gods (my gods) of FX trading, what the traders around see regarding EUR going up soon?

KL KL 16:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
So Gep...are you long pounds now?? Looks pretty low from here. Who else is long pounds now??

Dallas GEP 16:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Eur.CAD shorts KILLED the chance for long usd.cad to work much. SELL cad at 1.3450 would be a good possie in my view.

sibiu dan 16:57 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jpy medium term 119

Dallas GEP 16:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1.8420 support in Pound. 1.8626 is 38.2 of the year's high low. This was pivot point and so is 1.8466 pivot point and so is 1.8307

Newcastle GH 16:51 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP

You mention servers freezing. No doubt. One I use advertised here held up very well. I took 12 trades during that rout and got in and out each time. Held my breath for a couple though!

Baz JW 16:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 16:46 GMT Thanks GL GT

Tallinn viies 16:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
boying euro here at 1,2253. target 1,2360

Pecs Andras 16:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Baz JW 16:44 GMT March 2, 2004
here is what I read:

Option-related selling continues to cap USD/JPY gains ahead of 110.50 with highs of 110.30/35 seen so far. Further selling from exporters is staggered up to 111.00 along with more option protection. However, overnight reports strong interest now in USD calls with strikes at 112 and higher as traders anticipate a reversal in USD/JPY. USD/JPY gains will help fuel the current rise on the Nikkei which has been part of Japan"s strategy behind the official intervention. The BOJ bids were said to be as high as 109.50 this morning, with reports from
overnight trading that the USD/JPY gains were bolstered by even more intervention

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, Pound is too low to short here IMO Euro seeing some support @ 1,2230 area

Pecs Andras 16:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Guys
I have just realized that the last time we saw these levels on USD/Yen was last November
Maybe there is more to come

Baz JW 16:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Gep - think BOJ had something to do with last move? TIA

Quebec YQB 16:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I think I'll just wait on EUR/GBP. hoping for a long @ .66 or slightly above that.

the other crosses with the $ are too violent. EUR/GBP is more smoothed out.

Kaunas DP 16:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
eur will pop up after ECB as long as all news were discounted; the only q is for how long this retracement will last...

vancouver jpb 16:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Gep. Thx for the insight.

prauge viktor 16:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
gep what do u think about the Gpb may i short it from this level thanks a lot

Miami OMIL 16:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
There were a lot of stops reported around the 1.2330 area, which were taken out. This in turn started the landslide to the support (1.2230) level right now. Next move I will monitor around 1.2190-70 area (to add to shorts) just shy of the next retracement level from Novembers move. If the 1.2230 area holds for now the retracement rough numbers are 1.2350-55, 1.2390-1.2400 and 1.2425-30. With tough resistance around 1.2450 area for now. (/;-> GL GT

Dallas GEP 16:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
JBP, yes I believe we will certainly see some retracement based on those levels I posted below. Now though people will be looking to SELL on Rallies. Longer term players also MAY wish to come in at these levels to long but will wait IMO until all the shorting frenzy is over.

Pecs Andras 16:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
After many weeks of day trading only I think I will keep this USD/Yen long from 109.18 as a medium term position. target is open at the moment.

Ldn 16:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
If Dlr index can sustain over 88.05-18 Dlr positive.

vancouver jpb 16:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP where do you think the bottom of the Eur/Usd.

I had a buy open at 1.2369 had to quickly hedge my possie.

do you think we will see a recovery?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Funny, it was minutes before we were talking about a lot of white space under 1.233 and kerwhooom! White space.

Dallas GEP 16:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Euro support is @ 1.2236, 1.2266 FWIW. WILL THEY HOLD???? I don't know but longer term players MAY come in.

1.2335 1.2295 1.2266 1.2236 are levels then 1.2154 1.2128

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thanx Nottingham :}

nyc jk 16:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
melbourne O - you still short $/CHF from ahead of 1.27 or you bail on that yet?

Ldn 16:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Downward spike in EUR/USD due to repositioning, as "people must have been squeezed out of their positions" when euro dropped through $1.2350 and dollar index broke above 88.10, says DrKW's Andreas Hahner. Adds there's now world-wide adjustment of euro long positions, sees space for further drops to $1.20
rtes

beijing road 16:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Bye bye,eur bull! offline to bed,cu tomorrow!

Nottingham 16:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:20

my next long will be 1.2210 if seen...if that level is not seen today then strong probability of 1.2310/20 being seen tomorrow at some stage...gl gt

melbourne O 16:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
this is clearly an overshoot blow-off dollar top by the contis only as cad, aud, nzd are not following.
the dollar should fall back into its 2 month range in quick order.


Baz JW 16:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Wow - I was up 80 pips and had just moved my stop to lock in 40 then was taken out before I could blink :-0

NYC YIPPEE 16:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Days like these either you ride the move as long as you are able.. Or you take your lumps.

Sitting and watching in these market conditions seperate the money managers from the jobbers.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
That's what I figured GEP...so we're looking for decline in the next 24...

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
sure did, it spiked all over the board.

Dallas GEP 16:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
No Valdez ABSOLUTELY not unless you want to carry 100-200 pips stop

Dallas GEP 16:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trading servers were absolutely overwhelmed. Feeds were frozen and if you didn't enter TP when you entered possie you could forget about trying to close anything. Servers took over 5 minutes to update closed postions. Possies were entered with no STOPS because feeds being frozen COULD have took them so best for them NOT to be there!!!!!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, think I should long Euros here or wait?

Baz JW 16:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Did you guys also get a major 80 pip spike on the gbp???

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Think I should long on Euro here or wait?

Nottingham 16:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:16 GMT

I would guess so plus a whole lot of stops below 2330 added to the panic

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I guess the world is recouperating...what did that? Options stops?

Dallas GEP 16:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Those idiotic usd/chf shorts I had got blown out @ 1.2840 but pound MORE than made up for it!!!!

Nottingham 16:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1.2330/50 not 1.2230/50 of course

Stockholm za 16:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
fwiw....EUR/USD.....

ema [ 144 ] = spike...........

12366-12349 Z1
12336-12324 Z2
12309-12285 Z3
12261-12246 Z4
12234-12221 Z5
Key ON ~12204
Happy trades........

Miami OMIL 16:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Stops and options were triggered by that vicious move by eur/usd in the 1.2280-50 area I believe it will settle down now to cool off before making some more moves IMHO. Andras I have 1.2155-50 as next stop for eur/usd with some support at 1.2230 and 1.2190 area. These are rough numbers. (/;-> GL GT

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Pound shorts were UNREAL!!!

Nottingham 16:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 16:08 GMT

we just bounced off the 100 day sma...next target to judge strnegth of bounce is 1.2280 area...above there and full retracement to 1.2230/50 possible...gl gt

Nottingham 16:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
euro profit hit out at 1.2275

Pecs Andras 16:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Guys
the only support visible now is 1.2000 on EUR on the daily.
Is that right?

Helsinki iw 16:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Cut GBP/CHF long. 2,3900 to rich for now.

PAR 16:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Bougth GBP at 1.8440. Looking for 1.8550. Stop 1.8424.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Gotcha Nottingham....

beijing road 16:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
OMIL : big party, buddy. Will sell any rally for medium-term play.

Nottingham 16:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
long euro 1.2245

Miami OMIL 16:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
BTW added to my short position at 1.2350 with next stop in sight at 1.2190 will see the next reaction there. Moving fast welcome to the party Road. (/;->

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
This is a near vertical free fall..you short guys must be making a fortune! Yeeeeeeeeehaw!

ICT ML 16:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Now its a matter of keeping TP limits out of the way.LOL

prauge viktor 16:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
are we going to see the 1,192 and the 111,4 what u think Gep thanks

Quito Ecuador Valdez 16:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
tickle the devil's chin why don't ya!

Miami OMIL 16:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Might not be enough gas in the tank for eur/usd shorts but next stop is 1.2160-55 with support standing at 1.2280 area IMHO. (/;->

beijing road 16:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Reversed to eur short!

Helsinki iw 15:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
IMHO: My level 1,2310/20 is now gone. Target becomes now
1,2070/80. Naturally short term studies are oversold so be-
ware.

prauge viktor 15:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Jo Gep we made a very nice move since yesterday long usd/yen and short euro and whats now ??

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   

sheesh, USD, just go for 1:1 and be done with it!

sf mike 15:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hwere's next support for eur? 1.2000 seems so far away.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
and 123.10! zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzboom!

Barcelona Tony 15:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1.33 $chf coming

Nottingham 15:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
euro 1st o/s 1.2280 2nd 1.2210

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Punch! 123.15...

beijing road 15:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
come on, eur long was stopped out.

Pecs Andras 15:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Great, my dollar/yen long looking great
110 is being challanged. Rumor has it there may be lots of stops above here

sf mike 15:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP// I adminre your guts. It's a fast moving train. Where's your stop?

Dallas GEP 15:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
That was a QUICK loss!!!! Worth a try.

Oakland Daimyo 15:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Looks like Bear raid still in focus. This current assault has strong Price/Volume characteristics.

beijing road 15:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP: it is interesting to see how hard bulls and bears is fighting around 1.23level.

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trying long euro with 1.2346 stop HERE

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Yea, agree amigo with the white space...question is, how much white space? Any ideas (even $1 ideas!)?

ICT ML 15:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP..check mail NOW

Livingston nh 15:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - that EUR support level was burned up a few weeks later so now the third time down and a lot of white space underneath

Helsinki iw 15:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
As a post script: Think the 1,2310/20 level is critical, not the
previous low of 1,2330ish. IMHO

Boston OM 15:45 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sold Euro at 1.2711, and bought them back at 1.2209. Moved a little fast for me to post.

Helsinki iw 15:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Being told a derivatives house, originally from Chicago,
nowadays affiliated with a Swiss Bank is buying lots of
EUR/USD below 1,2400. Supposedly 3 yards worths to close
shorts from higher. Personally still favour a break of 1,2310/20
but it may take time. GBP/CHF still performing nicely, but look-
ing a bit out of oxygen, so anyone in it keep s/l in order.
gl gt

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
lowest support was 123.34 Eur/usd back in Jan around the 17th.

sydney fg 15:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
email sent to jay.
thanks for your help guys.

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Road it is taking a nap. Usd/JPY just made a new high. USD/CAD is being a real PAIN!!!

Shelbyville MKT 15:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Jay's email: [email protected]

Dallas GEP 15:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ANdras, I don't belive it will long past 110.00 at this time. I would trail stop at least @ 109.65

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEEEEZ I gotta know when to buy Eur long....how low can EUR get?

Nottingham 15:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
london th 15:25 GMT

Get that feeling too...I suspect we will hold 1.2350 on euro until payrolls at earliest...euro rates should be no change as jawboning has had desired effect and that should temporarily boost euro ahead of friday jobs report...if jobs +150/200k then think risk of break below 1.2350 will be high on condition that euro is trading around 1.24 but if it is closer to 1.25 on release then I think it will dip hard but there will be sufficient buying close to 1.2350/1.24 to hold it into weekend...bad jobs report creates much short covering and 1.2580 close imo...gl gt

Pecs Andras 15:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Any views on USD/YeN?
I am in long from 109.18

sydney fg 15:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB , sorry, new here. Not sure how to email thru J. 10 minute would be great.

Shelbyville MKT 15:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: Copper, British Pound, Silver. High option implied volatility. Consider for option selling strategies.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD really testing support..looks like a 1.233 day is coming.

sf mike 15:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
what do you mean road? it's moving nicely.

Chambery FR JFB 15:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 15:21 GMT March 2, 2004
fg, you absolutely want 5 min? censored has 10 min (10.000 values). e-mail me thru Jay to get the link (it's free... both my e-mail and the service lol). GL

Shelbyville MKT 15:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: S & P 500, Crude oil, ( Option IV for each at or near 1.5 and 6.0 year low)

Munich Ronny 15:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
silence before the storm

beijing road 15:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Mkt is dead now.

Dallas GEP 15:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
AB, I think Eur/GBP is topping out, Friends, I pride myself in trying to post all my possies BUT last 8 hours I can not post fast enough here in GV and take possies as quickly as I need to. My belief is if you can't take possies in real time with the reccomendation, then they are not much use to you guys. For instance I took a USD/CAD long from 1.3408 but there is not much use in me posting that if you can't take it with me if you chose to. So basically I guess what I am saying is I will tale possie first and post it as quickly as I can here. If market is moving quickly, I may be in and out before I have time to post.

london th 15:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hi guys any1 getting the feeling that every1 short $s at the moment.

sydney fg 15:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thk u, but jus want data. not charts. thx anyway quito

Chambery FR JFB 15:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
NYC MSG 15:15 GMT March 2, 2004
Thx... completely missed it, except for the blip on my charts :-) GT

sf mike 15:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
lots of sellers now above 1.2400 on eur. Notice that last shake.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sydney, you asked about a chart where you could do back testing. I use http://quote.fxtrek.com/misc/censored.asp (Intellichart). Click the icon at bottom left of your screen. You can configure it...bar, line, candle...frequency, time in days/months...and under File you can launch another chart as well for multiple charts.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
C'mon USD, fall baby!!!!!!

NYC MSG 15:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CHAMBERY R JFB .. that was some sort of US jobs report that came out at 1500GMT

Global-View 15:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
From GVI

Spotforex NY 15:03 GMT March 2, 2004
Challenger Feb layoff intentions 77,250 vs 117556

GVI Jay 15:01 GMT March 2, 2004
Challenger: Feb job cuts down 34% from Jan.

Chambery FR JFB 15:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Whatwazzatt??? Some numbers out? TIA

nyc tony 15:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Alicante// Well put. I am in complete agreement with your post. I will just add that 1.3440's rebuff is a clear signal that now is the time to buy euro/$. In at 1.2388. Of course I am still holding my long $/CAD. good trades to all

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
still need more rest after the asthma, off now,
place trail on dlr/cad at b/e.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
who can still "carry" this yen?

not cad, not eur, not dlr.... who can?

prauge viktor 14:51 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hello Gep I think we are goining to the level 111-112 for the usd /yen what u think about it pleas...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:45 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I "see " the dominou effect gbp/usd until get 1.8765 from low today.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
just wait to see what jap respond to this rate cut then tomorrow.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 14:28 GMT March 2, 2004
yes..you are right. I always give view with tight stp to control the risk/draw down. bad for today, and I always give view here when market run or give me subjective information.
I hope you are well.

Alicante RTN 14:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Have closed euro and cad shorts against the dollar. Eurusd, cable and usdcad are showing clear signs of bottoming out.

The inability of usdcad to move up signficantly after the rate cut is an indication that this periode of usd strength is coming to an end.

Only a real advance from usdcad taking out the 1.35 level will change my mind on this.

singapore sniper 14:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
RBA wil remain unchange in the rate. aud will test 0.7680-85

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
unless it cuts...
if they do, I will lift my hands off.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
at least since 1.13-1.14

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham

no hike just means

aud=nzd......

so, won't expect large sell off but bounce 'cos that was priced in long long long ago.

Nottingham 14:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
audnzd could be ticking bomb...if no hike tonight then disappointment could trigger sharp sell-off as last time...would be oversold 1.10-1.09 where longs favour...not necessarily contra and could be more than short-term as focus on NZ probably by then...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
we have a fight now between two v. closed level. Qindex, thanks.

1.2374, 1.2398

Va Raven 14:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
But look at the cable "recommendation" you proposed, you broke your own "rules", Randen..... that was almost 2 big figure stoploss, no?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I still hope 1.2569 and 1.8830 will be meet. maybe from low today.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 13:50 GMT March 2, 2004
I mean in my trade view style.
ussually my suggest is 20 pips stp below support/resistant.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
my next positional play will be on aud/nzd long and eur/chf short later.

for eur/chf I am looking for 1.59-1.61 region.

Dallas GEP 14:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Bibo, Euro and Pound will have to bottom out first in all probability that have some minor retracements back LONG then usd/chf will short.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I miss those 600-800 pips daily gun witnessed few years ago.

bkk cad 14:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jk: Thanks! :)

PHT bibo 14:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP what will point out to usd/chf turning down break under 1.2745??

Boston OM 14:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
HOLY COW! THAT MEANS YOU BOUGHT THE CROSS AT THE ABSOLUTE LOW DALLAS!!!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, dlrcad 250 dma 1.3600

nyc jk 14:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
well cad 1.35 is the next big level on the upside. as tony said, a clear break of that should see it run a bit more on the topside....

Dallas GEP 14:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CLosed Eur/GBP long @ .6675 for +20 pIPS Still waiting for turndown on USD/CHF

bkk cad 14:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jk: wow how far might she fly tonight?

nyc tony 14:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
well, the boc has paved the way to finally break 1.35. time to sit back and watch the show. the interesting thing to watch is how much this will support the greenback vs the majors, if it does at all....good trades to all

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:11 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
we past 100 dma, 200 dma, next will be 250 dma.

nyc jk 14:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
cheers ab. I like $/CAD higher overall as well, thought we might see a bit of a pullback after the cut, but doesnt look like much! gl with your longs.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jap will not kid with their profits and will flee as soon as possible tomorrow. cad/jpy is another to watch now for this week.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jk// no, it jsut looks to me some positions were made on cad crosses to bet for a cut and now these positions close will temp. supporting cad. but price will quicky rocket up.

entered at 2nd lot 1.3380.

B.A. BOCA 14:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
talk about pricing an event to perfection....

Boston OM 14:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS, WHAT DO WE DO NOW? HELP ME O GURU

GVI john 14:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 2 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 2 1/2 per cent.

Information received since the Bank's last interest rate announcement has been broadly consistent with the economic outlook presented in the January Monetary Policy Report Update. As expected, core and total CPI inflation in January moved significantly below the 2 per cent inflation target. While external demand has been slightly stronger and final domestic demand in Canada slightly weaker than expected, the Bank's outlook remains, on balance, unchanged.

In this context, today's decision to provide some additional monetary stimulus was taken to support aggregate demand and to return inflation to the target by the end of 2005. The Bank will monitor closely the evolution of external and domestic demand and the pressures on inflation, as the economy adjusts to global changes.

Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 13 April 2004.
The Monetary Policy Report will be published on 15 April 2004

nyc jk 14:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
well the much anticipated 25 bp rate cut in CAD, looks like we may flush out the longs down to 1.3340/50 now

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Will smack penguin till 1.3330.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thanks mate.

Now we are seeing a delaying effect on crosses.

LONG 1.3405!

sydney fg 14:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
kaunas, was that a site for data? If so thanks, but didn't work.

GENEVA FHR 14:00 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
BOC cuts 0.25

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1.3430, 1.3390.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:57 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
place 30 pips away OCO entries on dlr/cad.

kaunas N 13:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
http://quote.fxtrek.com/misc/censored.asp

B.A. BOCA 13:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
for dolcad watch out for a quick flush of stops above 134,40, then down to get the other half.

50bp would see 1,36 pretty quick...gl

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I think WTO should check whether Jap has deliberately pushing up yen crosses during all repatriations.....;P

sydney fg 13:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hi. sorry to interupt.
could anyone suggest a source of free 5 minute eur/usd data for backtesting? doesn't need to be live.
thanks in advance.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 3, 2004
23:00 GMT- AUS- Reserve Bank Meeting
00:30 GMT- AUS- NAB Business Survey
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Producer Prices: vs. +0.1% in Nov
11:00 GMT- EUR- Dec Unemployment rate: vs. 8.8% in Nov
11:00 GMT- UK- Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Livingston nh 13:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - EUR at 1.2330 (maybe today?) has no support - no rate cut on Thurs could give it a bounce and weak US employment could push it further // but the issue is how low between now and Thurs morning

Va Raven 13:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi - I thought you said you didn't trade, only "analysis?

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I think 1.8555 on cable has been broke. I think its time for a freefall

SA getFX 13:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Euro near S5 1.8530 and T/L from Nov 03...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
the view on eur, aud and cad,
we seems to have collected a lot of BODers on the major supports now. and unfortunately, this collection is still in progress tonight. Thus, I couldn't imagine the rolling effect when the gate opens.

I don't mind to reverse lower if it is stubborn to open.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi Tn 13:45 GMT March 2, 2004
in my trade style I give stop loss 20 pips below resistant.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
50 bps cut almost means "penguin" in 1 week.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Raden M// What do you think of my post below?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Does RBNZ also hold meeting this week for rates?

Nairobi Tn 13:45 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi

Hi mate!
Whats ur stop on EUR/USD and GBP/USD pls?

TIA

bkk cad 13:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab: I agree, how far do you think CAD can go here?
TIA

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nice get bottom gbp/usd 1.8552. strong resistant

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Here is a scenario for this week (1.2330) and next week, start of a rise to over the pain threshold of ECB.
opinions PLEASE:

http://www.karoll.net/en/services/analysis/eur/weekly/
saying:
"It should finish this week (probably around 1.2330) and a new medium term rise should begin with potential target 1.35 – 1.40"

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Greensy has helped the eur too many times.... raden.
the recent one taken last night.

interesting pair is actually dlr/cad.

bucharest dan 13:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
in 20 minutes

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
If this 1.2380 is crunched, think the next s/l will also be triggered.

OK SZ 13:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
what time is the boc announcement

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I inform you. now gbp/usd and eur/usd get bottom .
it's time now to move up before Mr. Green speak.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
be ready, this dlr/cad could be smack up/down....
dlrchf done. eur got some protectors here.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What I see recent days is that everyone is rushing for stocks....
thus, selling/exiting some positions are wise.
but the effect of this is a drag of profit from l/t eur and others to USD. no doubt.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
What I see recent days is that everyone is rushing for stocks....
thus, selling/exiting some positions are wise.
but the effect of this is a drag of profit from l/t eur and others to USD. no doubt.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Let me smack thru the dlrchf first before dlrcad......

Kamensk Andy 13:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab - think 600 is impossible, btw my record 593.5 too....

B.A. BOCA 13:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
some players dumping their dolcad positions ahead of BoC..

beijing road 13:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
tianjing :yeah.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I like if eur/usd touch 1.2363.
I hope sellers push until that number and cut sweet there together.
also gbpusd have get nice bottom area at 1.8560.
target 1.2569 still valid for eur/usd and gbp/usd still valid to get 1.8822-35 as top area.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
my record is 593.5 though.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nt// Look at the naughty goose, I remember the penguin....
Maybe I will try a 600 on it later today!

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
It says:
"Confirmation for such an idea will be subsequent rise above 1.2539 and if my analysis is correct, a very strong medium term rise should be seen with potential target 1.35-1.40."

Quito Ecuador Valdez 13:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
G'mawnin Y'all! Any opinions pro or con on this long chart?
http://www.karoll.net/en/services/analysis/eur/daily/

tianjing 13:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
road you are chinese?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
truth will be unveild this Thurs.
road// I am waiting to Reverse as well.

NIcosia Cyborg 13:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 & melbourne O 12:58

rightly put frds, long gbp at 1.8590 looking for a return to days highs at 1.8690 area...
gl gt to all

beijing road 13:11 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab : yeah. Did it already at 1.2388 and 1.2398.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
road, keep buying eur?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
melbourne O 12:58 GMT March 2, 2004
rare opportunties to short the dollar at range extremes which might not be seen for a while after today.
it'll not be a pretty sight when dollar longs start scrambling to cover.



Keep eyes wide open and you can check your view right in about an hr.

bkk cad 13:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hmmm got some swissy, back to 1.2700 I hope.

melbourne O 12:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
rare opportunties to short the dollar at range extremes which might not be seen for a while after today.
it'll not be a pretty sight when dollar longs start scrambling to cover.

Chambery FR JFB 12:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
PAR 12:40 GMT March 2, 2004
Hi PAR. Any idea of those options expiry date? as well as that DNT1.2350 Euro? TIA

PAR 12:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
UK banks defending 1.8550 option and buying GBP.

GVI john 12:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2390…$/yen 109.70
DJIA -14 pts… 10-yr 4.00%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI....

Melbourne Qindex 12:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2350 - 1.2374 - 1.2398

Oakland Daimyo 12:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66-- nice trades

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nt// r u happy with nzd now?

bucharest dan 12:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
pm>thanks

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
dlrchf is my buddy!

longs from 1.2205 and 1.2268 and 1.2450 are still open.

waiting for Tony's number....

Stockholm za 12:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
DJ. * UK Feb Retail Sales Volume +26 On Yr Vs Jan +38

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo.
I don't have dlr/cad at hands right now, but I am interested in the m/t bias on this one if it close above (not jsut 1/2 pips) its 200 dma.

Ldn pm 12:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dan - Canada announcement 1400GMT

Melbourne Qindex 12:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The 22-day cycle are running at the same time.

Set A : ... // 1.2191* - 1.2256 - 1.2321 - 1.2386 - 1.2451* - 1.2516 - 1.2581 - 1.2646 - 1.2711* // ...

Set B: ... // 1.2321* - 1.2347 - 1.2373 -1.2399 - 1.2425* - 1.2451 - 1.2477 - (1.2503) - 1.2529* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 12:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following two 44-day cycle curves are governing the downward trending movement for the time being.

Curve C : 1.2110* - 1.2171 - 1.2232 - 1.2293 - 1.2354* - 1.2416 - 1.2477 - 1.2538 - 1.2599*

Curve B : 1.2331* - 1.2376 - 1.2421 - 1.2466 - 1.2510

Oakland Daimyo 12:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66-- USD/CAD looks interesting. USD looking strong on this one above 1.3350--Tgt 1.3480/1.3500 could be possible if we have another round of USD buying. GT

Sydney alimin 11:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
blah eur/usd has been pretty boring zzzZZZzzz

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
looks 110 is a done deal for those busy workers.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I Am waiting to close my eur short tonight.
and my nzd put will be matured sooon.

Stockholm za 11:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
fwiw........EUR/USD....
Yesterdays interest value ~12490 & ~12435.....
If OR when it brakes ......
12440/20 -> 12340/20 -> 12180/50 -> 11960/40 ->All at values
( 11740/20 ) = The Grand Trend & cycle values.........
Todays Key = Trading under ema ( 89 ) for the 1st time
Happy trades......... &.....Please NO comments

bucharest dan 11:51 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hi, what hour is CAD decision expected?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, the hidden one may be waiting for this moment to give the hardest attack.....

cad decision will generate a wave.

Melbourne Qindex 11:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.2374 - 1.2398

Helsinki iw 11:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Short punters are out to lunch. After 3 beers and a sandwich
they will be filled with energy again.

Oakland Daimyo 11:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
lack of follow through on the downside has been frustrating. Looks like short punters are exhausted for now.

chicago cal 11:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
yea, we just have to kick back and see what happens

Oakland Daimyo 11:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
cal--should be a good trade FWIW: Buy signal comes in above 1.2520

chicago cal 11:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
sterling longs are in effect as well

chicago cal 11:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
good thing i just bot some euro's just below 1.2400 and will add above 1.2550 for 1.2700 s/l 1.2340

gl,gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
but the dlr/jpy is like paralysed so all the other majors move.

Oakland Daimyo 11:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: It appears well orchestrated defense of the 1.2350/1.2950 DNT is in place at the moment. Trades from yesterday: EUR/USD short from 1.2479,1.2479,1.2480,1.2470,1.2463,1.2435--- I have covered last three and look to hold 1st three for med-term tgt 1.2000. All of these trades can be considered late possies so they will be 1st taken in when and if buy campaign begins (note: this swing begins with sell signals from 1.2820 & 1.2660 levels). Sellers are determined. Bear Raiders be careful of 1.2369 Major Fractal Low (Big gun support). Current offers are being absorbed for possible run higher before major assault lower. Must bring troops in to re-load ammo for next advance. Stops below 1.2520 are vulnerable IMO. Short squeeze could be in play before NY cut. Good trades to all.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:22 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
yen crosses buying. likely

Dallas GEP 11:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Added more usd/chf shorts @ 1.2780. Eur/usd seems stalled and so does Cable which MAY have given a false break down. USD/JPY probably topping out. May be just some pause before continuation though. Careful guys. Eur/GBP long starting to work well.

Malaga boqueron 11:20 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66, RE EUAD 1,60 line. Good odds this line will be taken out soon. See breakout on ADCHF for clue. Looks like much higher levels are in store on this cross.

Melbourne Qindex 11:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT March 2, 2004
USD/CHF : the congested profile of my daily cycle chart indicates that the market is going to consolidate between 1.2629 - 1.2692 and then it will tackle 1.2754. A projected resistant point is located at 1.2880. The critical point of my daily cycle is located at 1.2759. The lower barrier is expected at 1.2610 // 1.2648 and the upper barrier is expected at 1.2834 // 1.2871.


... 1.2610 // 1.2648 - 1.2684 - 1.2722 - 1.2759 - 1.2797 - 1.2834 // 1.2871 ...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nk, yesterday, reports showed that fishes swim with MOF now.....
MOF is busy in dealing with all of their outstanding contracts....

melbourne farmacia 11:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 09:30 GMT March 2, 2004
Sorry mate bit late for my post, but cut last at 1.8636. next level of interest 1.8577 followed by 1.8550 - only for swing trading etc..

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
NOw we understand why Greensy needed to talk up the eur last night....

saloniko 2004 nk 11:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab..

Its Up to u..

I will do it..cos i guess MOF will crack soon ..

nk

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
eur/aud is near the 1.6 line again... drawing my attention...

break or shoot......

GA TJ 11:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I will be away from the computer again today so not trading. Otherwise would strongly consider the Long side of EURJPY above 136.00. Just don't like to enter a posi and walk out the door. Too many bad things can happen.

ML thanks for the heads up.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 11:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nk, wanna buy some eur at therE?

perrie como 11:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
also the only buyers of new USA auctions are foreigners mainly china and japan, as from last year...

yields are growing and so your p-folios...yen is yet obscure but strenghtening med term motion...you'll loose on two sides billions and private money will go below pillows, while banks will have to hold that eco-war of holding worthless money into some supposed big market players that are not anymore so big

very killy

hong kong nt 10:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab -- strategic buy of nikkei and sell of DJI plus strategic sell of hang seng at 14000 work like magic, hope to see hang seng falling back to 12000 soon...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thanks pals.

perrie como 10:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
getle boj masters show me up some 110.20+ not asking any fantasies above 113 or squeezes 117,....not sound fundamentals opening up your obscure and expensive tactics

saloniko 2004 nk 10:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
广州市欧元区 James 08:15 GMT March 2, 2004

Me too..

*!*@[email protected]

perrie como 10:51 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
so all months of efforts by BOJ produced a side to negative range and nothing more...

they have to let the market go next weeks as trying to hold more here could make them karakiri the wishfull economical values...maybe next 50 years again, but samurais have to go for now

sarasota jf 10:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab mof bought alot yesterday (covertly) and today its short squeeze- downside confirmed for funds still short

ICT ML 10:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
TJU..ask Chambery Fr JFB...think he was into that project too

GA TJ 10:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp

Almost looks like normal trading. Sup/Res being challenged and taken out. Doesn't appear to be BOJ. But could be wrong.

ML, I will keep you posted on that project. Probably 6 months down the road if I can even pull it off.

Gen dk 10:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
My nightmare calling for a sudden joint intervention..........

Rivonia PipPirate 10:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
King of de £ award in recent days : Mizta L Hat

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jf// who is behind the yen move? may I ask?

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 10:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nice !! eur/usd 1.2383 and gbp/usd at 1.8596.
as bottom?

ICT ML 10:26 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I have been bamboozled by the market today..LOL
Short cable earlier tgt 1.8551, bounced back at me, closed for little profit...now look at it....Geez

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
BOJ in action again?

am happy still holding 107.05 and 109.05.

Dallas GEP 10:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Daniel, I am short from earlier @ 1.2750. Does look like great area to short from here ( I will trade you possies!!! LOL)

Barcelona Tony 10:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
usdchf 1.33 ... count the others.... daily figure finally formed and confirmed ... good trip for all $ bulls

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 10:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, 1.2766 100 dma of dlr/chf.

Revdax, what do you think about your beast today? (dlrchf)

Manchester Daniel 10:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning everyone. Dallas GEP - I have joined you on the $/CHF short, at 1.2769. Appears the spike in $/chf due to a euro/chf move.

Please note from 1.3803 (6 Nov) high to 1.2145 (11 jan low), the 38.2% retrace level is 1.2778.

Also a channel off the 1.2145 low nd 1.2182 low (17 Feb) - projected parallel line off the 1.2724 high (18 Jan) gives us a channel target around 1.2771.

On a day chart, it is quite common to get some overshoot of these res areas, but intraday, we should see some pullback from these levels

Indonesia solo raden_masandi 10:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
seen usd/chf now is leader for weaknes of usd.
be finished earlier.
be carefull.. maybe eur/usd and gbp/usd will follow.

Dallas GEP 10:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF just spiked up about 20 points. Stop hunt I suppose.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hello !!
be carefull . I look price get counting down..especially for usd/chf.
also eur/usd and gbp/usd.
I wait this situation since morning.

PAR 09:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Oil prices at $37 a barrel are not included in core inflation but are a huge tax hike by OPEC on the world economy. Money spent on oil can not by spent on anything else.

Stockholm za 09:51 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD.......... At the moment { For pip-raiders ONLY }
12436-12427
12420-12414
12406-12393
12380-12372
12366-12359
Key on ~12350
Range ~12451-:-12336
Happy trades.......

sarasota jf 09:45 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
theres good buying just under here in eurusd / eur/gbp at this price and eurchf under 00

QC WC 09:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, thanks, what level would you consider to reverse?

melbourne farmacia 09:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 09:10 GMT March 2, 2004
Just playing swings - currently long side until she turns again.

QC WC 09:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, re GBP, are you long or short?

melbourne farmacia 09:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Gota love this cable - the money making monkey.

Dallas GEP 09:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Good point Sam. When I closed USD/JPY long I was looking at chart and it showed 109.35/40. I just looked at list of closed orders and it was marked at 109.35 BID of course. Quite frankly I am having problems keeping up with two diffrent platforms and posting here as well. On top of thatmy platform is taking 3-5 minutes to show closed positions My mistake. Thnaks for pointing it out.

Miami OMIL 08:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for responding Farmacia. I believe that there should be a big bounce before the attempt to take out 1.2350-30 area I will sell for my intraday position around 1.2450-55 area if my system indicates it IMHO. (/;-> GL GT

Saratoga Sam 08:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Gep. How were you that you were able to close your long USD/YEN at 109.40 per your 8:03 post when the high was only 109.36 bid?

melbourne farmacia 08:49 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab- maybe , but my system suggests euro needs to rise some more before lower levels at this hour.

Omil - don't know mate.

beijing road 08:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven : like to see the explosion.I love the explosive movemet very much.

Dallas GEP 08:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
NOPE sam 109.41 ASK has been high so far on FFXXCCMM. I was saying that 109.40 looks like it would be good SELL on usd/jpy

Va Raven 08:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Some people might be dead before the explosion......Solo.

saratoga sam 08:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Dallas your platform G>F>T showed 109.40 bid?

Dallas GEP 08:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I posted this much earlier but I think it is stil valid:

Dallas GEP 01:21 GMT March 2, 2004
TP on Euro shorts is 1.2386. I expect range of 1.2468 to 1.2373 during asia/london. Risk of breakouts are GREATER to the downside than the upside.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad when at 1.3409
start down from 1.3436 to get 1.3313

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I hope eur/usd; gbp/usd ; usd/chf will be finished soon at 1.2383 ; 1.8596 ; 1.2765 soon.
match !!.
i wait these levels for action too. hope explosive movement.

beijing road 08:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I will heavily buy EUR/usd below 1.24, and place all the stop at 1.2320. If it works out, the positions will be held for medium-term play.

beijing road 08:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
If eur cant penetrate the low of last week, it would be very interesting.

NIcosia Cyborg 08:23 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Looking for Euro under 2380, preferably 2330/40 in the next leg down. Currently short, leaving stop above 2425....gl gt

Dallas GEP 08:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY developing good short from 109.40; USD/CAD good long from 1.3380 POUND is screwed up.

HangZhou 08:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Only thing to do:
wait.
DONT buy or sell
If GBP/USD price lower 1.8450,I will sell it.

melbourne O 08:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
shorting usd/chf around here is worth at least 250 pips

Dallas GEP 08:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thx DP

IF euro does dump down to 1.2380 or 1.2350 then USD/CHF probably goes to 1.2765-1.2800 so beware.

shanghai waveroom 08:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
sorry!test...

Jakarta JacK 08:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Well, euro have just bounce back to 1.2400 level. Hope will maintain direction... :-)

shanghai WR 08:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hello,everybody!

Dallas GEP 08:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1.2750 sell on usd/chf got executed off that sell order

广州市欧元区 James 08:15 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I think EURO will go to 1.233~~~today~~~

QC WC 08:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, did you short Usd/Chf already?

Dallas GEP 08:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Eur/gBP long from .6655 off buy order

Kaunas DP 08:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 08:12 GMT
congrats...patience is one of the virtues in this game...:))))

hong kong nt 08:13 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 08:03 -- expect distribution for the rest of Q1...

Dallas GEP 08:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Closed EUro shorts @ 1.2397 from 1.2430

Chicago Irish 08:09 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Didn't know you were a Middlebrough supporter Daniel :-)

广州市欧元区 James 08:08 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Oh!!My God!!My friend is come in!!The friend of Talkforex.com!!

Nottingham Daniel 08:07 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Euro should read 1.8550

Nottingham 08:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Euro...I would guess market expectation is for defensive buying to successfully defend exotic option position at 2350...hence risk of a fig move below if taken out...my own studies suggest market may try to force a new low but stay above 2350 and reverse towards 2400 again...gl gt

Nottingham Daniel 08:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR$ & GBP$ MAY touch - 1.2370 & 1.8635 before a bounce -

Kaunas DP 08:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:27 GMT
it looks that eur bulls will come back only after ECB decision - so better wait for it ;)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 08:04 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, I think the bounce comes far later than expected. Could well be 1.2335.

KL KL 08:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nt what about nikkie, ftse and dow??

Dallas GEP 08:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy longs from 108.97 @ 109.40.

beijing road 08:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
广州市欧元区:yeah

Ga Lee 08:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:56 GMT March 2, 2004

thank you very much for that informative post...

hong kong nt 08:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab -- strategic sell of hang seng at 14000 works magic...

Livingston nh 07:59 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Looks like some critical levels get tested before NY opens - EUR/USD breaking last weeks low and swissy moving towards 1.28 ///Unchanged rates on Thurs by ECB and MPC may see a big reaction in EUR/GBP (.6820??) as the pound seems to be holding better odds of a hike than EUR of a cut

Miami OMIL 07:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP how high do you see the bounce on eur/usd? (/;-> tia

Dallas GEP 07:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sell order now on USD/CHF @ 1.2750 pending

Ldn 07:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
French Feb Consumer Confidence Index -23 Vs -22 In Jan below forecast

广州市欧元区 07:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
OK!!But my English not well~~~sorry~~~

Chicago Irish 07:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Yes there are Chinese people in this forum but the language used here is English.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 07:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Guangzhou trader,
I suggest you respect the forum and tune yourself back to English.

Dallas GEP 07:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
One of best trades potentially is SWISSY short from 1.2750 area

广州市欧元区 07:44 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
这里有华人吗??用中文聊外汇~~~嘻嘻~~~

Dallas GEP 07:43 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Running a trailing stop now on usd/jpy longs from 108.97 and on last set of euro shorts from 1.2430. Tragey is 1.2380 on euro and 109.60 on usd/jpy.

MONACO OGA 07:42 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 02/03
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2405), 125 pips lower than Monday's opening. The pair as expected met some strong resistance ahead of 1,2550 (high 1,2542) before selling pressure reappeared, fuelled by speculations of future ECB rate cut on March 4th meeting. Support at 1,2450 was tested in the afternoon (closing in NY). As the market stays below 1,2560 and 1,2610, we believe the market is still in a bearish mode. For today 1,2540-50 should offer some resistance while market is gunning for critical support at 1,2350. Technical analysis and chart patterns make us reconsider our bullish stand that prevailed in the last months. Our target is now 1,2000.

Data out today:

EZ unemployment rate Jan expected 8.8% 10.00 GMT
EZ weekly currency reserves Feb 27 14.00 GMT
US Challenger layoffs 27 Feb last 117.6K 15.00 GMT
US total vehicle sales Feb expected 16,5M 17.30 GMT
US Super Tuesday for Primary Election

Gold around 399,20 , with WTI April at 36,82.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 109,30) stabilizing inside 108,90-109,70. Nothing changed since yesterday. Support for the day at 108,80 while next resistance stands around 109,70. We are still neutral on the pair, talks in the market of players caught short trying to cover their positions should limit any downmove.
EUR/JPY (currently 135,70) following EUR/USD's price action closely.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8650) following EUR/USD closely, was rejected ahead of 1,8750 yesterday and is currently testing 1,8640 support. We believe some further expectations of rate hike in UK (supported but yesterday's consumer credit data) will support the GBP, but maybe not against the US currency.
EURGBP (0,6655) is still heading lower. The carry trade factor should be weighting on the cross. Although oversold chartwise, EUR/GBP could easily visit the 0,6530 zone where support should start showing up.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Miami OMIL 07:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia do you think we will see 1.2450 on the bounce or how high do you think the bounce might be on eur/usd? (/;-> tia

melbourne farmacia 07:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab - yeah i would look for 1.2390 ish for possible small bounce.

Chambery FR JFB 07:29 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Morning Raden :-) Must be a typo in your GBP d/ & e/ buy strategies... S/l are above buy entries... :-) GT GL

Stockholm za 07:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY......... Today ......
8731-8697
8663-8652
8607
8562-8551
8517-8483
True -R ~8855-:-8495
Happy Trades..........

Tallinn viies 07:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
good mornign world

euro long stoped out.
lets see

hk ab 0.66 07:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Raden, those folks seem just start their action. Better wait for a good level. Don't think their actions may last till NY close but truly look like till London opens.

London 07:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
fx concepts advise aud going down not to hold long for long

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
better exit your sell eur/usd when get 1.2407.
maybe price shoot up from there to get 1.2569

Chambery FR JFB 07:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 06:49 GMT March 2, 2004
Morning Hat :-) 2 little questions : don't you think 1.8710 is safe enough as s/l? and when do you expect your target to be met? (am short GBP from 1.8677, s/l 1.8710, but no tp yet). TIA :-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:54 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hey friends !!
for eur/usd when at 1.2431
I have good signal in indicator accumulation Distribution.
let's see 5 minutes and 15 minutes chart.
There is bullish divergence there.
maybe price move up from this signal.

Jakarta JacK 06:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hi Raden, would you kindly also email me the file? My email is [email protected] I'm in Jakarta. Thanks before. :-)

Ldn 06:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Mass Voters Head To Polls - Kerry Look For Big Win

London 06:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Bill Hubbard CNBC live European squawkbox. saying market is getting ready for a sharp up move in the USD with payroll date moving up some 400.000 if not this week then in the very near future , says when the move happens will be very swift and interest rates will follow

Melbourne Qindex 06:49 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Next target 135.21.

Ldn Hat 06:49 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Shorted the GBP/USD at 1.8670 stop 1.8750 target 1.8580 Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 06:46 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market is going to penetrate through 135.50.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:27 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 06:16 GMT March 2, 2004
thanks.
because I hope not disturb with my big file to everyone.
but thats clear I think. :-)

Van jv 06:17 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   

Euroland: A Rate Cut in the Offing?

Joachim Fels & Elga Bartsch (London)---Morgan stanley



Lower rates for longer, but no cut

Disappointing fourth-quarter GDP data, the drop in several national February business confidence indicators and a slightly larger-than-expected easing of consumer price inflation in the first two months of the year have all rekindled market expectations of an ECB rate cut as early as this coming Thursday. In our view, however, the ECB remains reluctant to cut rates due to the accumulated excess liquidity, and we continue to believe that the next move in the refi rate will be up rather than down. However, with the economic recovery proceeding much slower than anticipated in recent months, we now think the ECB will be on hold for most of this year and will start to nudge rates higher only in the final quarter of this year. This also implies that the rise in bond yields that we foresee this year will me much more muted than previously thought

Sydney alimin 06:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thx raden, got ur email
the format is simple and nice now :) u dont use big files anymore?

Ldn 06:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
The Australian dollar is trading within a narrow range Tuesday, ahead of the outcome of the central bank's board meeting and key domestic and offshore events. Prices for Australian government bonds were similarly steady ahead of Wednesday's Reserve Bank announcement, with the majority of analysts expecting steady interest rates.
Key support at US$0.7660 has repeatedly offered support, but investors are reluctant to buy above US$0.7760.
Todays data confirm that the Australian dollar is probably overvalued and is vulnerable to the downside over the months ahead," said TD Securities chief strategist Stephen Koukoulas.
"In the short term, the wide interest rate gap and rising commodity prices are likely to support the Australian dollar," he said. "A move back to US$0.8000 or a little more can't be ruled out in the short term, but by the second half of 2004, the Australian dollar is overdue to fall back to US$0.6900 or less," Koukoulas said. Prices for Australian government bonds were steady ahead of the Reserve Bank announcement at 9.30 am local time Wednesday (2230 GMT Tuesday). Investors are also reluctant to take positions ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank meeting and payrolls data Friday in the U.S., both viewed as key events for global monetary policy settings.
AP

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trade strategy for today 02 March 2004
All numbers here is BID Number


GBP/USD
Trend UP
a. Buy 1.8425 tgt 1.8595 stp if price show you 1.8417
b. Buy 1.8341 tgt 1.8528 stp if price show you 1.8332
c. Buy 1.8209 tgt 1.8425 stp if price show you 1.8200
d. Buy 1.8146 tgt 1.8380 stp if price show you 1.8334
e. Buy 1.8546 tgt 1.8822 stp if price show you 1.8838
f. Buy 1.8596 tgt 1.8822 stp if price show you 1.8589

g. Sell 1.8725 tgt 1.8683 stp if price show you 1.8733
h. Sell 1.8822 tgt 1.8734 stp if price show you 1.8830
i. Sell 1.8861 tgt 1.8762 stp if price show you 1.8870
j. Sell 1.8949 tgt 1.8835 stp if price show you 1.8957
k. Sell 1.8831 tgt 1.8745 stp if price show you 1.8840
l. Sell 1.8743 tgt 1.8697 stp if price show you 1.8751
m. Sell 1.8778 tgt 1.8725 stp if price show you 1.8786
n. Sell 1.8803 tgt 1.8743 stp if price show you 1.8811
o. Sell 1.8815 tgt 1.8745 stp if price show you 1.8823
p. Sell 1.8884 tgt 1.8803 stp if price show you 1.8891
q. Sell 1.8964 tgt 1.8842 stp if price show you 1.8972
r. Sell 1.8931 tgt 1.8822 stp if price show you 1.8940
s. Sell 1.8949 tgt 1.8865 stp if price show you 1.8957
t. Sell 1.8984 tgt 1.8865 stp if price show you 1.8992
u. Sell 1.9012 tgt 1.8884 stp if price show you 1.9020
v. Sell 1.9073 tgt 1.8925 stp if price show you 1.9081
w. Sell 1.9114 tgt 1.8964 stp if price show you 1.9122
x. Sell 1.9155 tgt 1.8990 stp if price show you 1.9163


EUR/USD
Trend UP
a. Sell 1.2570 tgt 1.2522 stp if price show you 1.2578
b. Sell 1.2577 tgt 1.2498 stp if price show you 1.2585
c. Sell 1.2605 tgt 1.2526 stp if price show you 1.2613
d. Sell 1.2629 tgt 1.2568 stp if price show you 1.2638
e. Sell 1.2669 tgt 1.2601 stp if price show you 1.2675
f. Sell 1.2695 tgt 1.2615 stp if price show you 1.2705
g. Sell 1.3042 tgt 1.2872 stp if price show you 1.3050
h. Sell 1.3070 tgt 1.2891 stp if price show you 1.3078

i. Buy 1.2345 tgt 1.2480 stp if price show you 1.2335
j. Buy 1.2322 tgt 1.2460 stp if price show you 1.2317
k. Buy 1.2258 tgt 1.2415 stp if price show you 1.2250
l. Buy 1.2238 tgt 1.2400 stp if price show you 1.2230
m. Buy 1.2118 tgt 1.2402 stp if price show you 1.2110
n. Buy 1.2088 tgt 1.2288 stp if price show you 1.2080
o. Buy 1.2045 tgt 1.2258 stp if price show you 1.2035
p. Buy 1.2022 tgt 1.2240 stp if price show you 1.2017


USD/CHF
Trend Down
a. Sell 1.2765 tgt 1.2719 stp if price show you 1.2775
b. Sell 1.2732 tgt 1.2516 stp if price show you 1.2742

c. Buy 1.2516 tgt 1.2576 stp if price show you 1.2505
d. Buy 1.2445 tgt 1.2517 stp if price show you 1.2435
e. Buy 1.2436 tgt 1.2516 stp if price show you 1.2426
f. Buy 1.2393 tgt 1.2483 stp if price show you 1.2383



My best regards,
Raden Mas

shanghai bc 06:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   

My pleasure,friends..I am learning from all of you too..

Aden PK 06:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hi Freinds, It seems more range trading will be today, GBP/USD should be a sell near 1.87-1.8705 wiyh stop over 1.8755 for 1.8650 may again spike above from here towards 1.8690 but should ultimately see 1.8610 where I will take a long position target 1.8810-15 stop 1.8570

Any comments will be welcome

Melbourne Qindex 06:02 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY (adjusted) : 3-Month Projection Profile

... // 134.44* - 135.21 - 135.98 - 136.75 - 137.52* // ...

After Expansion of 135.21 - 135.98 :-

... // 135.21 - 135.41 - 135.60 - 135.79 - 135.98 // ...

Rivonia PipPirate 06:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
f(x) = (ab + bc)²

hk ab 0.66 05:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bc// thanks for your "free lunch" again! Just found out the bit needed.
Many good trades to you.

Ldn 05:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Australian 4Q GDP forecasts lowered in wake of bigger-than-expected detraction by net exports, smaller-than-expected rise in inventories. GDP now expected to rise 1.1% in 4Q from 3Q, by 3.4% on year, according to consensus of 20 economists surveyed by Dow Jones. This down from 1.4%, 3.7% respectively. AP

SNP 05:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC 4:56
many, many thanks for your generousity

Ldn 05:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Lehman Brothers weekly report, says bank fully exiting EUR/USD longs, as eurozone growth, inflation data consistently disapppointed lately, risk-reward of holding EUR/USD longs not that compelling as it thinks markets still not pricing in sufficient risk of ECB rate cut.
reuters

Melbourne Qindex 05:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:33 GMT March 2, 2004
EUR/JPY : 3-Month Projection Profile

... // 134.41* - 135.21 - 136.01 - 136.80 - 137.60* // ...

After Expansion of 135.21 - 136.01 :-

... // 135.21 - 135.41 - 135.61 - 135.81 - 136.01 // ...

Melb mpfx 05:32 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Great post BC :)
gt to u

ny mm 05:30 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Hey folks ,what's going on ? seems there is hardly any trading going on tonite . Anyone can speculate as to the reasons of the standstill ?

Tokyo WALL 05:18 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thank you, Shanghai BC.
To guide us in the darkness.

shanghai bc 04:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   

AB 03:36 -- Good morning..Hope you rest more and recover fast..On 200 dma in Usd Index and Gold and 250 dma in Eur/Usd ,as a rule of thumb,it is a very useful guide dog for many long-term traders..If it is rising,it means a long-term bias is up and if it is falling,a long-term bias is down..And within that bias,you decide overbought and oversold regions to fine-tune the trade..Assuming 250 dma is rising,you divide the spot price by 250 and anything away from 250 dma by 1000-1500 pips or more can be called overbought distribution region..In Eur/usd example,we were trading above 1.26 while 250 dma was around 1.14 and I shouted here that it was well above the medium-term correction region..So, for long-term real money folks,it was already a region to start serious ditributiion while short-termers were shouting for 1.30-.1.40..And as always distribution started by long-term real money folks above 1000 pips above 250 dma region finally started having effect on the market and we had a top around 1.29 and we are still in the process of distribution by the market with over-enthusiatic short-medium termers serving as breakfast for long-termers..The next question is how long this distribution process can last..I believe in a rising 250 dma,anything within 500 pips of 250 dma is a ggod value..So, we can expect another serious accumulation process in and around 1.20 region for the next leg up..That is if 250 dma can hold the falling price this time..Once 250 dma is breached on daily close this time,we may have to seriously think of possible change of rising long-term direction since 2001..Fine tuning the trade is more complicated than this.. But in this limited space, 200 dma in Gold and Dollar Index or 250 dma in Eur/Usd roughly serve their usefulness in this way..Good trades..

hong kong nt 04:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab -- thx, line up small sell order at 0.691, 0.692, 0.693, 0.694 and 0.695...

Chicago Irish 04:45 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
jpb:One of these days there will be no tomorrow and that applies to us all !

vancouver jpb 04:40 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
IF the Eur/Usd goes into 1.23XX range. I will be buying into it like there no tomorrow.

It will be good for at 100-150 pips to the good.

Good luck everyone.

hk ab 0.66 04:35 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nt/ .6950 is still possible.

hong kong nt 04:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab -- which level you suggest to sell kiwi? thx

Ltn th 04:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas why the $1 jump in spot gold just after 2400 GMT? Am I correct that this would have been before HK spot market opens at 00:30 or am I screwed up by daylight savings?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 04:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Opinions anyone? :)

Quito Ecuador Valdez 04:11 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I see another graph trend of Eur/usd in Oct 03 similar to now...what do you think?

H.B. 04:10 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Langley treasury bills and bonds are all shotable, you just have to make sure you make delivery. their is a huge market for lending and borrowing treasury bills

Quito Ecuador Valdez 04:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
opps..not retrace...use rehash.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 04:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
...and could what we see now be a retrace of January? On a 3 month EUR/USD chart it appears so...line graph, Bolinger and Simple MA. What think?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 04:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
za// message well taken. Great analogy! :') comment on my last if you would...

Langley dss 03:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for your answers guys. Much appreciated.

Quito Ecuador Valdez 03:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
It appears (using a 3 month chart) that the usd is steadily decreasing in value to the eur, trending to a near (but not level) level off in mda. The mda line still is going up generally from 3 months ago as a whole as well as Bolingers.

What to you guys see the Eur/usd doing over all this year?

I'm interested in more of a long long view overall for the year. I'm in eur for that long term to diversify my investments yet I can speculate with $50k to make extra short term $$.

Stockholm za 03:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Quito......Optimism :-
" A state of mind that causes a respondent to forecast that favorable events are more likely to occur than is justified by the facts. Also known as wishful thinking. This has long been recognized. For example, Many of us are susceptible to this bias. We think we are more likely to experience positive than negative events. Warnings about the optimism bias (e.g., “People tend to be too optimistic when making such estimates”) help only to a minor extent. Analogies may help to avoid optimism"
Happy trades......

Rye, NY et 03:55 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Langley dss 03:48 GMT March 2, 2004
Yes, in the Futures Market...... .GL/GT

hk ab 0.66 03:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
sp//yup thanks. What I need is an extra long sleep.

hk ab 0.66 03:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
was deciding to suggest you dlr/jpy but seems yen crosses are at the brink......

Sydney Ge11Ja 03:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Langley dss 03:48 GMT March 2, 2004

best way is through the futures market otherwise you have to borrow the bills or bonds which is too hard

sgp sp 03:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
hi hk ab, how r u feeling? recovered from your bout of asthma?
gl & gt :)

hk ab 0.66 03:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
nt// looks like nzd is the last train left.

hong kong nt 03:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
ab -- i have not loaded enough dlr long for this week. any advice for me?

Langley dss 03:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
This is probably a really dumb question, but could someone please tell me if it is possible to short treasury bills or government bonds. Someone asked me, and I didn't have any clue as to the answer. TIA and I apologize if this isn't the proper venue for this.

Porto PJT 03:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bc, thanks.
Farmacia,good morning
gt.

hk ab 0.66 03:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd sweep and sleep mode.
bought more 1.1200 and 1.1180.

hk ab 0.66 03:38 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
eur is making a double trouble with eur/jpy and eur/gbp now.
both of them are dragging the eur hard time.

hk ab 0.66 03:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bc// May I ask you a TA question.
If a pair moves about the 200 dma. Does it mean a trend change is in place in m/t?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 03:31 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GVI Jay/John, what do you think of Bank of Montreal's forcast for Eur/USD below?

Miami OMIL 03:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia go ahead and give her a push (eur/usd) so we can get the ball rolling here lol. (/;->

shanghai bc 03:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   

PJT -- Good morning..Please contact me via Jay..Good trades..

QINDEX -- Good morning..Thanks for the info..

Quito Ecuador Valdez 03:19 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
The Bank of Montreal's bull (s--t) forcast for the EUR/USD is:
Euro * Mar: 1.28 June1.30 Sept: 1.33 Dec: 1.35

folks (and please GEP!) what's your op about this?

Melbourne Qindex 03:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Heading towards 134.10 - 134.41.

melbourne farmacia 03:03 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
We need a daily close under 1.2426 Euro/usd to get her rocking lower. Gbp/usd's level of interest for me comes around 1.8555 as of this day... fwiw

Gen dk 03:01 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Ecuador Valdez 02:53 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Well, what you gave me was not what I'd consider a "do it" quotable, rather it was just on the format of "fishin' talk". Who really does know with all the variables to what certainty anything will happen as predicted? Lots can happen in 3 weeks, we know that. I'm in a Euro long so to speak, that's the reason for my interest..a $115,000 CD I can't get out of 'til the 23rd. I got in at 1.24+ so if you are correct, I'm stewed.

Porto PJT 02:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bc, good morning/evening here, some questions regarding this options and spot combinations i like to ask you, can i send you my questions via Jay, my email, or any other sugestion?thank you and good trades.

Dallas GEP 02:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, I don't mind you quoting me., Everyone's entitled to a view, even if mine turns out wrong!!! LOL

Quito Ecuador Valdez 02:37 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP// right..got it...thanks too. Believe me, I'm not going to quote you or anyone else on "fishin' talk", we're at mercy of a LOT of factors. But thanks sincerely. That means you'll do well on shorts..hope you make a bunde amigo.

Dallas GEP 02:33 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
1.19-1.21 range Valdez

Quito Ecuador Valdez 02:28 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Right, I know that and appreciate your humility but what's your gut feeling say in 3 weeks, realizing that we're just a talkin' here, chewin' twigs while fishin'.

Dallas GEP 02:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, it is far from over yet!!!! Once we get past a week or so, my view is much less accurate IMO. That's why I daytrade rather than position trade!!! LOL

Quito Ecuador Valdez 02:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Who made the big put on AA some days prior to 9-11? Will the SEC fess up? SEC is government. Government is being investigated. Uh...

http://www.rense.com/general46/911.html

nyc jk 02:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bc , thanks and much appreciated.

shanghai bc 02:14 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   

GEP -- Good morning -- Good trades..

JK -- Good morning..I will shout here if and when I see the change of bias which started in Eur/Usd 1.29 region to the upside for Eur/usd..Hopefully at least one session before that is confirmed..I trade combination of options and spots rather than specific positions..So,it is the bias and liquidity of the market at a given time that matters most to me rather than any specific levels..Good trades

Quito Ecuador Valdez 02:12 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
GEP// Looks like your feelings towards USD in the next week-10 days were right. GooD! thankx!

What do you think about EUR/USD at month's end? (crystal ball questions again)

melbourne O 02:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
AlexVA Dennis 01:45 GMT your 'fly up or down' orientation typically exemplifies the mass one dimensional sterotype thinking.
if you prefer you can think of "flying" as in the slang "to take a flying kite"
sorry for the confusion

Melbourne Qindex 02:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Heading towards 1.2731- 1.2754

Dallas GEP 01:56 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
On a sidenote here, my wife was less than thrilled when she found out the reason for a window net on my son's race car was to keep your arms from flying out the window should you flip the car. This along with the fact that a parachute is required for the car because it goes 150+ MPH in quarter mile and basically she ain't happy AT ALL. Imagine that!!!!

On a currency note, my guess is we will see lower EUR/USD prices in Asia than possibly what we will see when London wakes up.

AlexVA Dennis 01:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
who am I to tlak posting varefu' fpr careful.

AlexVA Dennis 01:45 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
You need to be a bit more varefu; in your posts Melbourne O. You may be in the southern hemisphere but up is stil up and down is still down. USDCHF can not, uder your thinking fly "up" but down.

AlexVA Dennis 01:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
melbourne O 01:24 GMT

flying "up"?????

nyc jk 01:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
thanks GEP, will get it and send you and email tom, cheers.

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

melbourne O 01:24 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
usd/jpy 108.90 had been under pressure for for the last few days while heavy selling caps the upside. It's now a matter of time as to when it will be taken out for 108.50/00 which will send the dollar flying up to euro 1.26/27 & usd/chf 1.25/24

Dallas GEP 01:21 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
TP on Euro shorts is 1.2386. I expect range of 1.2468 to 1.2373 during asia/london. Risk of breakouts are GREATER to the downside than the upside. Eur/YEn (broken record here I know!! is key) A USD/JPY push IS expected soon if not tonight then in the next few days.

Ldn 01:16 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
HSBC economists cut Australia 4Q GDP forecast again in wake of weak 4Q current account deficit data. Senior economist Anthony Thompson now expecting growth of 0.9% on-quarter, down from previous forecast of 1.2%. In annual terms, HSBC now expecting annual growth of 3.2%. Australia January retail sales rise of 0.7% a tepid bounce from 0.6% fall in December, says HSBC senior economist Anthony Thompson. Trend in household sector demand clearly weaker since September, which reflects fact housing cycle has matured, rate hikes late 2003 having impact
AP

Dallas GEP 01:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
NYC JK
No problem!!!!

Gen dk 01:06 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

London 00:58 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Analysts closely watching potential implications of huge U.S. lawsuit filed overnight; seeks $10.5 billion damages, possibly treble that, over claims by Oceanic Exploration its Timor Sea acreage was stolen. History on dispute sparse but relates to Petrotimor unit which once alleged Timor Sea treaty trod on its ownership rights. Local companies that might be affected include Santos (STO), Woodside (WPL), BHP Billiton (BHP). Santos is partner in Bayu Undan project led by ConocoPhillips, one of parties named in lawsuit alongside Australian, Indonesia, East Timor administrations. Any protracted suit could have fiscal implications for the three countries, especially Timor, which desperate for revenue. Reuters

nyc jk 00:52 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
bc - thanks for the thoughts as always, just trying to put some numbers around your view. do you have anywhere in particular where you would consider your view wrong, ie s/l type levels in EUR or gold?

GEP- can I get your email from Jay to contact you?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I hope not loose this train.
buy more for eur/usd and gbp/usd today.
brb.

Melbourne Qindex 00:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : the supporting strength of 1.2374 - 1.2398 is going to be tested.

Dallas GEP 00:50 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Raden, I belive we see 1.2380 tonight my friend, but if not, I will wait!!!!!

Dallas GEP 00:49 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
I think BC has it nailed regarding the view of USD right now. Austrailia opened up bearish on the dollar but Asia looks to be bullish.....watch eur/jpy......that's the key.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:49 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
buy signal for gbp/usd have be finished in build. nice signal.

melbourne O 00:48 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf can't sustain 1.27, expect a fast sell-off down to 1.2450/1.2500 soon.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:47 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!
gbp/usd have given message confirmation to get 1.8832 (top)
also eur/usd 1.2569.
for today.. buy!!
thanks you.

Ldn 00:41 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Australian retail sales up 0.7% in January from December, above consensus for 0.5% rise, showing domestic economy maintaining momentum. But balance of payments data show current account deficit at A$12.01 billion in 4Q, and net exports still weak, detracting 0.5 percentage points from 4Q GDP vs expectations that they would only detract 0.1 percentage points. 4Q GDP expectations likely revised downwards. AP

Ldn 00:39 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Australia 4Q Curr Acct Deficit A$12.01B;Forecast A$11.7B

Dallas GEP 00:36 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Road, I am sharp shooting now. Waiting for much bigger moves but we are zig-zagging around ranges.

Dallas GEP 00:34 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/jpy @ 108.97 If it shorts I will add more. Target 109.40 first.

Gen dk 00:11 GMT March 2, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

 




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