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Forex Forum Archive for 03/03/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 23:47 GMT - EUR/USD : The pace is fast and it is hard for me to tell at this moment what will happen at the end of the month. I am bias on the downside at this moment.

St. Louis SAJ 23:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Martin -- Without any prior knowledge, I'll wager that the registration ''process'' that potential uridashi issuance must undergo is a real beaut! (g!) Dot every ''i'', cross every ''t'', but Mr. Asushida in the Bureau of Thingummy has doubts about ...

That how it goes?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 23:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
today is the first day to get "crazy long rally"
I like that.
rocket burner have been started since new York market yesterday.

Gold Coast martin 23:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
LDN..the key to the whole uridashi issuance is that as soon as registration occurs the bonds are issued at "leisure".The determination of japanese government lately to keep private funds 'AT HOME' has led to an unwillingness to issue them..The same applies with the NZD....To put it simply ....the japs need as much money 'AT HOME as they can for foreign exchange purposes and also to internally stimulate their economy ...

Melbourne Qindex 23:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/AUD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

St. Louis SAJ 23:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Qindex -- Hello! Nice to ''see'' you again! Trust things are going very well for you, hope so at any rate.

So, whither EUR in 30 days' time?

Ldn 23:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
World Bank Confirms Issue Of 2Y NZ$1B Uridashi
Does it also include cutting NZ Uridashi because they seem to be still going through? Martin

Singapore Pilot 23:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
To those who have been following my posts since 2 weeks ago when I said being short dlrs was a no brainer and a dlr rally was written on the wall already...Congrats if you went long dlrs or bot em back...

Ldn 23:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc Gold Coast Martin gave his view on the Japanese Uridashi bonds about to finish - as you are very familiar with this type of trade would really appreciate your views on this if you have a moment. many thanks.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 23:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
goo morning..
ho..ho.. finnaly gbp/usd get 1.8320.. okay..that's mean information to get 1.8522.

shanghai bc 23:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   

Dollar is likely to correct its advances for a few more sessions taking Usd/Chf to 1.2800-1.2750 region before Dollar bulls start another move into 1.30-.1.35 region with comfort..It may take at least several sessions to complete the process..Other pairs may move in unison in timing with difference in magnitude..Fwiw..

Melbourne Qindex 23:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 23:06 GMT - Good morning!

Algarve Box 23:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 23:22 GMT March 3, 2004
"This bad system in the US led to a 8% GDP in the US in 2003."
Hi tg, can you tell me if this 8% are for ALL the year or only for ONE of the quarters?

Vancouver maq 23:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks very much St. Louis SAJ for clearing that up. I've periodically heard mention of these instruments here, and thought it was time to find out what they were. Your explanation did that. Cheers.

SanFrancisco tg 23:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 21:52 - Thats quite an eyeful tower of great wisdom from you to claim McDonalds cutting back its xl menu items equates to a clear sign that anything "made in USA" is "unhealthy and damaging".

But what about the sausage originating from Germany, and the quarter pound of cheese consumed in France per person per day on average, both of which are not exactly health food? EU fat is exempt?

How do you explain the gigantic spiraling pension deficit, larger unemployment rate than the US, and actually negative GDP in some EuroZone sectors equates to this Euro economic team that is too smart to make the mistakes the US makes as you say. This bad system in the US led to a 8% GDP in the US in 2003. All "made in USA" McDonalds poison you think? If so, wouldn't the US economy be worse also?

I don't think I am arrogant to ask how all that adds up to your statments, any more than suggesting that perhpas the EU could benefit from any number of US items, being food or economic.

Ldn 23:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
well wriiten St. Louis!
domo arigato!

Ldn 23:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Long-term players still unwilling to call end to USD decline despite its run of late, citing U.S. twin deficits; also, no clear timing on likely Fed hike, no sign ECB moving in opposite direction. "This is more a reflection of positioning. I don't see this as the beginning of a big bull trend" in USD, says Royal Bank of Scotland's Ram Bhagavatula. For USD to have truly turned corner, U.S.-eurozone yield spreads must move decisively in favor of U.S; "but this will take some time," perhaps 3-to-6 months
reuters

St. Louis SAJ 23:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver maq -- Uridashi bonds are retail securities sold into Japan by foreign borrowers under a shelf registration system, which enables prospective borrowers to complete the necessary documentation and meet regulatory requirements for a deal, then issue at leisure.

The whole idea is to tap Japanese citizens' enormous pool of savings, and this scheme is very attractive to Japanese citizens because the borrowers are inevitably in high-interest nations (anyone is ''high'' compared to Japan, of course). So, the citizens benefit by earning rates that they could not achieve within Japan, and the borrowers benefit by obtaining capital at rates lower than available in their own nation.

Hope this is useful to you, and good trading!

London 23:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD still likely to exceed 0.8007 7-year high made last month, "but I do think it's going to take a while," says Commonwealth Bank strategist Alex Schuman. Pair currently caught up in scramble by leveraged funds to cover USD shorts across the board after they were surprised by EUR weakness. While EUR will continue to struggle to rise against USD, AUD can break away from EUR; AUD positive fundamentals still intact with high metal, oil, gold prices, interest rate advantage, he says

Melbourne Qindex 23:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 22:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
as expected cad fails at the 250 dma (1.3594) on the first run

nz 22:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
whats happening with the euro rate cuts?

JJ 22:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Growth spurt tips economy intoThe economy is back among the fastest growing in the world after a booming finish to 2003 saw it expand by 1.4 per cent in the December quarter, pushing the annual growth rate to a cracking 4 per cent.

fast lane was the strongest quarterly growth in four years and the fastest annual rate for 18 months
There was more good news yesterday when the Reserve Bank decided to leave interest rates on hold for the second month in a row - although economists warned that it may only be a temporary reprieve.

"The RBA's finger remains firmly on the trigger," said the Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan
The Treasurer, Peter Costello, said the economy's strong performance was set to continue. "An annual growth rate of 4 per cent puts us again at the top of the league of the developed economies of the world - faster than the G-7, faster than the OECD
smh

Vancouver maq 22:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Could someone briefly tell me what a uridashi deal is? Is it unique to japan and the aussie currency?

eu zn 22:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
you need to see 30 sec charts to see the BIG SIGNAL

AlexVA Dennis 22:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 21:52 GMT

Keep thinking your happy thoughts then. :)

Dallas GEP 22:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the post, Martin MUCH appreciated.. I have just shorted the SHittttt out of the Aussie. (ya'll see the price drop??? LOL) .7492 Short

France Lucky Strike 22:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 22:05 GMT March 3, 2004
In waiting this level, I've got a negative divergence on MACD on 1 and 5 minutes charts plus a gbp/usd that rebounded on its 50 ema, following the trend i prefer sell now.

Gold Coast martin 22:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS......the aud,whether or not the euro strengthens or weakens is doomed in the short and medium term....This slide has been caused by reluctance of japan to do more uridashi deals with australia....The analysis shows that the aud will follow the fortunes of the euro in the near term with a trading range of 7505 peak to 7420 low...Should the ECB cut or show an active willingness to stem the strength of the euro then god help the aud.....Should any hint like that surfaces and the US employment data is good then the aud will slip down to the 72 range.....Someone said to me that when the aud was 78 cents that it was 25% overvalued..based on his assessment the aud should be trading at .60 as this is the level that japs feel now that they need to occur in order to be comfortable doing more uridashi deals....will keep you posted further....

Brazil,Sal JH 22:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks MK. I'll make it a fast short HA!!!

BEIRUT MK 22:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
i think eur is on the way to 1.2370 before ECB
meeting.

thank you.

Brazil,Sal JH 22:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks lucky, just did

France Lucky Strike 22:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short eur/usd , open target

GVI john 22:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2205…. $/yen 110.05
DJIA 10,593, +2 pts…NASDAQ 2,033, -6 pts
10-yr 4.05%, 0 bp’s
MARKET OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See text on GVI...

Brazil,Sal JH 21:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys what are we looking on eur/dir here ???

up-down- sideways ???

FRA Gustav 21:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AlexVA Dennis / high-end is what USA buys from EU, with all the respect those who sell to USA are not the difference makers in the EU economy.

McDonalds stopping with the XXL meals shows very clear why that "Made in USA" is unhealthy and damaging one second after leaving the showroom.

ECB is too smart and will not adopt the USA lending policies, time shows FED as a failure.

Dallas GEP 21:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
YM, regarding Aussie. I think it will short in Asia. GOLDCOAST Martin tho is the MAN on Aussie, maybe he can let us in on some good insight.

Dallas GEP 21:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
MB=MK

BEIRUT MK 21:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep, good luck to you.

Dallas GEP 21:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
MB, we seem to be going opposite directions today. LONGED usd/jpy @ 110.05 for 110.35. Good luck to us both!!!!

BEIRUT MK 21:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
short usdjpy at 110.03 target 109.60

thank you.

Nottingham 21:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
euro...target met for combi day contra longs from 2210 (yest) and 2157 (today) at 2214...similarly eurcad 1st o/s now done...one more euro account left to clear up at 2275 target level but this likely to clear only Thurs/Friday/Mon following addition (sub 1.2180)...risk here consolidation may trap position into fresh euro lows if no early addition tom morning...gl gt

Chambery FR JFB 21:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP : Stop hit @1.8320 (ask) -36 pips... bloody censored!! lol

prauge viktor 21:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
thank u Gep for ur help

Chicago YM 21:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP do you think aud/usd will short first in asia or do you think it will wait until london to short with euro/usd?

Dallas GEP 21:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Viktor. YES I do believe that!!!

AlexVA Dennis 21:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 20:23 GMT

The facts equally scream that the EZ economy is a cesspit. A EURUSD at 1.30 or even the previousdly suggested 1.40 or even higher won't do anythingto alleviate that situation. I WOULD however make US exports much more attractive.

prauge viktor 21:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep my I understand from u that u still belive in the usd is going once again to the 1,2 befor friday thank u I really

Antwerp Tom 21:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, got you. Many thanks for taking your time.
BTW, 1,2222 on my platform as well.

Dallas GEP 21:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Red, Since London open, high was 1.2222 on my platform.
Nice to see your post again BTW.

Dallas GEP 21:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Tom. For example if I thought Euro was a good Sell from here @ 1.2210 but also thought maybe pricing would take it to 1.2260 Then I might choose to short say 50 lots here with the thought that IF it got to 1.2260 I would short another 50 lots. This is what I meant by LAYERED shorts with one layer being at 1.2206 and another layer @ 1.2260. This IS very aggressive and you would need a good amount of equity to support this strategy. MANY times POSITION players will do this. What IS important is whether or not you feel market will take you back to your ORIGINAL entry if you are wrong.

Barcelona JP 21:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OK.

Time to go to sleep with +350 pips.

My swissy short from 1,3017 still alive. Place stop @ 1,2935.

It's been a plesure to share with you my trades.

Have a nice day!!!!!

Sofia Red 21:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP// The earlier euro high was 1.2232 FWIW, take care.

SanFrancisco tg 21:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK RP 21:00 - Cheers.

Antwerp Tom 21:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP Sorry, didn't understand (and still don't) what you meant
by layered short. GL anyway.

Saihat 21:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
usdchf may see 1.2785

Dallas GEP 21:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
There are some offers here @ 1.2215. High much earlier today was 1.2222 (EURO)

Dallas GEP 21:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Tom, I still have it but if you remeber , I took it as a layered short so the fact that it has gone long doesn't really shock me. This level NOW is key level for Euro

Barcelona JP 21:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I'm geting tired of trailing

Barcelona JP 21:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Next stop in swissy:

1,2903.

Ought to see eur/usd @ 1,2240

Antwerp Tom 21:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP What happened to your Eur/USD short 2165?
Where's the SL? Appreciate your comments and humour
(humor in Dallas)

Mtl JP 21:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nh 20:17 / earlier headline CEOs see a few more jobs (CBS.MarketWatch) said that "Nearly nine of 10 corporate chief executives expect higher sales in the next six months, but only one out of three expect to hire more workers". Unfortunately, they didn't say they would hire the workers in the US.

Barcelona JP 21:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Did you see it?

Dallas GEP 21:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
That's what I like about New Yorkers, you know EXACTLY where you stand with them!!!!

Barcelona JP 21:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
DONE IT.

I love CAT

Barcelona JP 21:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Take care of your libs when you do it

Barcelona JP 21:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ready to wishtle?

Dallas GEP 21:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Giving this pound short a little more room to work. 1.8337 stop now

NEW YORK RP 21:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 20:43
Straight forward talk is always greeted with respect.
GL

Barcelona JP 20:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ready to wistle?

Nottingham 20:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:51 GMT

have done target from 2nd o/s (1.6275>>>1.6305) but yet to hit target from 1st o/s of 1.6225, where target 1.6255...if not seen today will take tom or add sub 1.6250 and adjust target accordingly...gl gt

Mtl JP 20:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gustav 20:23 / According to Al, "Even more worrisome .. are the clouds of emerging protectionism .. increasingly visible on today's horizon. .. could significantly erode the flexibility of the global economy. Consequently, it is imperative that creeping protectionism be thwarted and reversed." (Current account)

Not sure if he was refering to the close to approx 30 states that have (or are pending) some 80 bills with the express aim of keeping jobs in the U.S. by limiting international outsourcing.

Dallas GEP 20:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Cad has longed almost a 100 PIPS in last few hours.

France Lucky Strike 20:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 20:38 GMT March 3, 2004

The ECB was said to cut its rates at 1.30 no less. So, effectively, there is no reason to cut them at 1.22
We'll see but maybe this recent increase of euro translates this opinion...

Dallas GEP 20:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I think market is pricing IN at this time NO RATE change. IF there is a RATE CHANGE then USD will have a field day, I believe many dollar bulls are waiting for EU decision because if EURO does rally up, they will sell into it IMO.


The dollar/cad NOT shorting much below 1.3380 is IMO significant. That COULD be a very health long.

SanFrancisco tg 20:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA - I'm pouring out the rest of our french wine now. If unemployment and deficits are the only issues driving currencies than why is it the Euro soared over the last two years while drastically underperforming the US economy? There are many issues which affect currencies. Sounds like you want those two things to drive currencies, but they are only part of the equation. It also takes more than a simple headline or surface understanding.

Barcelona JP 20:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Well, be out 30'.

If you see 1,2920 (swissy), whistle for me.

Barcelona JP 20:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The lower
EUR may allow the ECB to maintain its neutral policy stance, which perversely,
would probably result in a EUR/USD bounce.

What are they going to do?

Livingston nh 20:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
KL KL - no move by ECB and MPC - EUR/GBP at .6820

KL KL 20:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - you view on eur and cable if both EUR GBP DON'T move on rate. Still see down trend??

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
NH, that would be the SIMPLE moving average!!!!

1,2250 in Asia is possible I think but it would be late Asia IMO. If NY boys decide to close some of these CURRENT longs we will see some retracement short on BOTH Euro and Pound. I know I would BEFORE the EU decision tom.

Stockholm za 20:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw…. What we are seeing is a search for range definition for value development which is given after these big move ……
Todays values :-
EUR/USD ~12165/70 >> Gap ~12230/35
GBP/USD ~18355/65 >> Gap ~18410/20
USD/CHF ~12990/00 >> Gap ~13030/40

Happy ( safe ) Trades …….

Livingston nh 20:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gustav - it all depends on what moves currency - some believe in interest rates - others trade - some think economy // the brass ring comes with the right answer (if there is one) // according to Fed Chairman yesterday we are just coin tossers

FRA Gustav 20:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
US unemployment and trade deficit are the issues; how the markets support cheap political maneuver when facts are screaming EUR @ 1.3010+++

TIA for enlightening me

SF MRZ 20:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
short Eur/$ here, leave one for the bucket shop, going out to lunch, leave orders on desk for the sharks to smell. GL

Livingston nh 20:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep - is that SMA or EMA one period?

OK SZ 20:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nice one Gep...it's nice to keep this room laughing sometimes..does anyone think we will see 12250 during asia

Dallas GEP 20:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hey anyone know what the ONE period moving average is on Euro?????????



(note: this IS a joke, lighten up boys!!!!)

Livingston nh 20:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP - I am sure BLS is taking heat - their revision cost the economy 300K jobs in payrolls stats from reported fig last January (2003) and the PPI debacle is weighing heavily on them // BUT a bureaucrat is a bureaucrat - I don't think they can be bludgeoned into "sow's ear to silk purse" mentality

Chambery FR JFB 20:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
fwiw... will SAR my GBP short if hourly close is above 1.8303 (bid) to cover my loss... and eventually get some bonus pips :-) Happy trades

Dallas GEP 20:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Almost have had a 100% retracement of today's move.

lugano rob roy 20:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sold euyen at 134.18 s/l 134.60

Helsinki iw 20:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Would not bank on a reversal of the euros fortunes based on
today´s price action. Read Athens´comments. By the way,
1,2250+- is where the lower bollinger band on dailys come in
today.

Mtl JP 20:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 19:47 / beware "US payroll figures". These numbers come from a gov't increasingly desperate to paint its own picture. Note Greenspan's eager desire for "important step toward better implementation of the intention of the Congress." (Economic outlook and current fiscal issues Before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives February 25, 2004

nyc jk 20:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo - excellent choice, I have read it numerous times, one of the best books ever written on trading imo.

Dallas GEP 20:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
TG, I am VERY patient. Wait long enough if you can and it will ALMOST always come back your way!!! LOL

Oakland Daimyo 20:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 19:56 check this out. True story and gives a good idea of what trader mentality should be. sorry Jay for 2 way conversation. This was posted by another of our forum friends. Hong Kong nt 11:15 GMT January 13, 2004
Online version of the Reminiscence of a Stock Operator

http://www.stock-market-seminars.com/downloads/reminiscences-of-jesse-livermore.pdf

Barcelona JP 20:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Swissy hit my level: 1,2937.

Now, 1,2920.

Lets see.

We need eur/usd above 1.2200 to see that

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
MK, of course that's your opinion. Time will tell. doesn't look great right now though!!! Stops are in place.

lugano rob roy 19:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sold eugbp at 0.6662 sell again at 0.6712 if seen, s/l 0.6752

SF MRZ 19:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
position square before interest pmt for the day, triple cost day for rollover

bandung dewan 19:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
thanks for your recomend. You need to sleep. You're a master.... maybe you are one of the elephant..... Maybe now you are on the dream of GBP break high for your sleep now, but I see thst's real. LOL.......

nyc jk 19:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
will take a look into it Daimyo, I like old books on market, tend to have more insight than a lot of the rubbish on the bookstore shelves these days.

SanFrancisco tg 19:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep - first tier (warning) short sterling signal dissapeared and 2nd never hit, maybe have to wait a little to see it come your way.

Nottingham 19:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
euro...targets for today from o/s of 12157 met (87)

France Lucky Strike 19:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 19:52 GMT March 3, 2004
is it very stupid to short euro now

thank you.-------> you're welcome!

Tallinn viies 19:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
no its not, leave stop order to 1,2275/80 for example and collect chips from the table tommorow at 1,2000

France Lucky Strike 19:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Reverse short euro

Van jv 19:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
may be narcistic?

SF MRZ 19:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
the elephant is moving to a new watering hole

BEIRUT MK 19:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
is it very stupid to short euro now

thank you.

Dallas GEP 19:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Euro at upper BB (1.2180) now Will it bounce down?????? That is the question,

Oakland Daimyo 19:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OMIL I am hoping for a much better retracement to re-load. Wait till later.

Barcelona JP 19:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Now, 1,2937 - 1,2920

Barcelona JP 19:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
1.2947 hit.

I love my system

Oakland Daimyo 19:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk NP most aren't. Richard D. Wyckoff compiled methodology into writing back in the late 1800's early 1900's, back when pools (manipulators) were in existence. It's about understanding and moving w/ the motives of the underlying dominant force, in this case, the elephants (CB's, I-banks, Hedge/CTA/CPO types) The same type of "manipulation" goes on today, especially FX.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
friends !! sorry..I must sleep now for a while.
morning to morning with my "wife" FX monitor.
CU tomorrow..
thanksfor today all from you.
Happy Trades !!

Livingston nh 19:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FWIW - was surprised on this EUR weakness of last two days that there were no shouts about ECB intervention - a similar move in yen would have had BIG intervention calls

was not surprised that a lot of press releases have forsaken 1.30 as a given - the key here is how soon do we see "ANNOUNCEMENTS" that the correction has run its course and we are surely on the way to 1.40

My bet is MPC hikes (I was wrong in Feb when I thought they would refrain) and ECB doesn't -- US payroll figures should disappoint (my guess is up 65K - I don't know where new jobs strength comes from other than health services)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I think have confirmed. it's time.
LOL

SanFrancisco tg 19:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - I just got first of two tiers ackowledging short Sterling, you know I'm waiting but maybe you got it just right.

SF MRZ 19:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
short Eur/$ here might get squeezed to trade above 1.2180 -> Higher

nyc jk 19:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
thanks Daimyo, I am not familiar with it, cheers.

BEIRUT MK 19:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
short usdcad at 1.3389

thank you.

Dallas GEP 19:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Well Friends, I am now 1.2165 short on Euro. This is a layered short so those wish to enter with just ONE set of lots may wish to see this stay at this level an confirm for another hour or so.

SanFrancisco tg 19:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Not by any stretch of the imagination Box.

Algarve Box 19:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 19:33 GMT March 3, 2004
Hi. Thanks for the rosy descriptions of economy :)
Ah... btw, can we call this rallie on usd the KERRY RALLIE ?
:)

France Lucky Strike 19:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short euro , open target.

SF MRZ 19:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
the shark

Oakland Daimyo 19:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk-- Wyckoff analysis

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
in 5 minutes maximal from now if gbp/usd can not below 1.8270 that's means price loose momentum/have no time for rest/move down. maybe up again.

nyc jk 19:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo - who is "composite operator" ? thanks

Oakland Daimyo 19:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Watch for failure. Confirm w/ your own system before shorting.

SanFrancisco tg 19:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
from the FED Beige :

Economic activity continued to expand in January and February, according to information received by Federal Reserve District Banks.

Consumer spending rose in most Districts.

Employment has been growing slowly in most Federal Reserve Districts.

Oakland Daimyo 19:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Please dont get me wrong I do not use the term specs w/ disrespect. Only referring to the avg spec account held by brokers. This aggregate and not related to anyone specific.

Oakland Daimyo 19:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Notty. I covered most of my shorts already so WTH let's see. Downside tests/ Upside tests are necessary before we can move other way, need to see what's there. As I said before, C.O. (composite operator) is sitting under us for the time being. How long this will last depends on when and if he can gain a following. Right now they are showing signs but I'm not sure if specs are ready to join as they are usually late and wrong.

BEIRUT MK 19:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
short usdchf at 1.2963 target 1.28X

thank you.

Chambery FR JFB 19:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sorry, means t/l @1.8295 bid...typo :-(

Nottingham 19:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 19:19 GMT

potentially a daily hammer reversal in play...

Chambery FR JFB 19:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short GBP @1.8284, s/l 1.8320, after it perfectly touched the descending t/l @1.8285... for tp ard 1.8200... Happy trade:-)

Oakland Daimyo 19:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
NY close will be important today.

Dallas GEP 19:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Stop on pound short is 1.8317

Barcelona JP 19:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
If you shorted swissy, do not forget to trail

Barcelona JP 19:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 19:13 GMT March 3, 2004
Swissy found 1.2960 support for the time being

Lets wait, GEP.

Next stop: 1,2947

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Onk.
let chart emotion move with free.
I think 1.8320 is objective be touch today to get confirmation for 1.8522.
seen rest area at 1.8280 was finished, start move up again !!

Tallinn viies 19:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
order filled,
full short now. target 1,1980 before week is over

Barcelona JP 19:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta onk 19:07 GMT March 3, 2004
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi,
What next target for Eur and GBP?
Thanks

Here are the levels: 1,2200-1,2241-1,2301

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry trough= through, it has been a long week.

Dallas GEP 19:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Swissy found 1.2960 support for the time being

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP this time eur/usd broke trough we will see a much-needed retracement for better positions on shorts. Next move will be 1.2220 IMHO.

Dallas GEP 19:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
1.8294 short but this IS risky. POUND Beige book caused the usd weakness TEMP IMO

Jakarta onk 19:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi,
What next target for Eur and GBP?
Thanks

Chambery FR JFB 19:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 18:40 GMT March 3, 2004
OK... seems 1.8270 is breaking... :-)

Barcelona JP 19:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd @ critical level

Barcelona JP 19:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Nest stop in swissy hit: 1,2970 en route to 1,2947

Barcelona JP 19:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
A rate hike will have to wait.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Daimyo.

Barcelona JP 19:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Not strong jobs recovery!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mtl JP 19:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
beige book

Dublin CK 19:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
U.S. economy expanding, Fed says By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. economy continued to expand in February with modest gains in employment and prices, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book report on the economy. Growth was variously described as "moderate," "firm," "sound" or "accelerating" in the Fed's 12 regional districts. "Employment has been growing slowly in most Federal Reserve districts," the Beige Book said. Wage have increased slightly. Retail prices were "level or modestly increasing" while "commodity prices have moved up more noticeably." Consumer spending was higher in 11 of 12 districts, with only St. Louis reporting lower sales. Manufacturing output also increased in 11 districts, with Cleveland reporting steady production.

Oakland Daimyo 19:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Watch USD/JPY 110.00. I believe this is psychologically impt.

Dublin CK 19:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry,

Rise "From" the ashes......

Dublin CK 19:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Are there more fireworks down or will the heavy hitters come in now?

If ECB dont raise rates & Feb employment figures are less than 145k.

Will this be the beginning of a rise of the ashes for the Euro phoenix +1.30?

Barcelona JP 19:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I might be wrong but that FED book is not good for USD long

Oakland Daimyo 19:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OMIL FWIW: over 1.2160 weak buy signal, over 1.2200 better. Entries for shorts should be placed as close to "danger point" as possible.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd seen start again for up from here.difficult to get below 1.8255 again.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Daimyo get a good rest for the next round.

Oakland Daimyo 18:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP: If I could keep my eyes closed and my greedy finger off the trigger during trades I'd be sitting on 800 pips per lot this move. Made lunch money on shorts so far. Looking for shrimp and lobster before summer. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I have the 20ma that has acted as resistance for eur/usd at 1.2165-70 right now. Could be a pullback from there but I will wait patiently to short from higher levels IMHO.

Dallas GEP 18:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
What do you mean DAIMYO, I close my eyes everytime I take a trade!!! LOL Just kidding!!!

Oakland Daimyo 18:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL-- ask Jay for my email. Thx I'm signing off for awhile.

Oakland Daimyo 18:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry too many trades to post. Last couple of days been real busy. Will try to post tonight/ tomorrow. Not later than Friday.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo any ideas on how high we might get a bounce on this over exhausted eur/usd short? tia

Kaunas DP 18:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:48 GMT
is it out at 19 GMT - TIA

Oakland Daimyo 18:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Too many trades at one time can "blind" you. GT : )

Mtl JP 18:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
less than 15 mins to Beige Book

Dallas GEP 18:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, you were talking about POUND, sorry.

Dallas GEP 18:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Daimyo, normally I would but eur.cad is starting to do a bullish turn NOW but technically the 1.3080 level IS better.

Oakland Daimyo 18:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
How many more pips floating does it take for extreme pain to be felt. Let's see who we can catch at sleep on the trigger.

ICT ML 18:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 18:08 it broke the cycle for that down swing, but I'll see how it does around 1.8350 if it gets there to decide if its in another big move up or not....needs to clear 1.8270 first, if that clears, then you could be right.

Gen dk 18:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland Daimyo 18:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP wait for 1.8280 at least, C.O. sitting below. 1.8320 cut & run point for Raider campaigns. Short-term specs are dust, hunt for med-term option players next. We are in Big Gun territory, they must show up or they will be toast, expect more option- related defense, slowing markdown cycle.

Jakarta onk 18:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hello all,experts
Eur and GBP are rebound, now 100pips from the bottom.
Any idea what close price to keep they bull?
thanks

Barcelona JP 18:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Next stops in swissy: 1,2970 - 12960- 1,2947.

Lets see if it get there.

If you followed me in my short, trail to 1,2995

Dallas GEP 18:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Longed usd/cad @ 1.3392 with stop @ 1.3367, May wish to wait for lower but I am counting on that BRAVE eur/cad longer!!! LOL

ICT ML 18:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:59 GMT March 3, 2004
point taken, no blood no foul...just misunderstood your intention.

Barcelona JP 18:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd might hit 1,2165 and then take a rest

Dallas GEP 18:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I am waiting JP. Thnaks for the heads up

Dallas GEP 18:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
1.8220 would be FIRST target I am NOT in yet.

Barcelona JP 18:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, wait to short cable. Swissy may get to 1,2960 level

Dallas GEP 18:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
That brave EUR/CAD longer is holding up pretty well. waiting on followup candle (BUY hopefully)

Kaunas DP 18:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:25 GMT
targeting what level - TIA

Barcelona JP 18:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD is a buy now. Take care. I do not trade now.

Last time the signal did not work

Dallas GEP 18:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short here would work on pound with WIDER stop IMO

NEW YORK RP 18:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hey Buck, who is really behind this?
Are we done yet? Sorry we couldnt meet up.
GL

Dallas GEP 18:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Actually DP, I think a short from 1.8265 with stop @ 1.8287 stop would WORK. It IS aggressive however.

Stockholm za 18:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw ..........EUR/USD Has spike my weekly extreme low range ~12049
With my extensions given as :-
12038-12003-11969-11934-11900-11865-11831-11816

¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤ And you guys leave Raden_mas ALONE….. You all reacted the same way when- Oil man, Athens, bc, etc. called it lower to these levels a few months ago :- TRUE or FALSE ?¤¤¤¤¤¤¤¤…
Peace and Love…….

Barcelona JP 18:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD is going to be a buy,

Wait

Barcelona JP 18:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
third stop hit at 1,2980
I love my system

Gen dk 18:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Chambery FR JFB 18:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:15 GMT March 3, 2004
Why would that be GEP? Because of 6:15 est previous low @1.8270? Just curious :-)

Dallas GEP 18:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
No not really DP. I am trying to help a friend out who is short from 1.8175. I am not sure really show strong this 1.8260 level is.

Rivonia PipPirate 18:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD performing an interesting Fib-two -step waltz

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Re my

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:40 GMT March 3, 2004

now the scenario we saw was 1.2056 touched and back to pivot 1.2166.

Other points to watch 1.1897..1.1620... if market trades to this level(1.1897) then we have a serious slide down to 1.1620.

be back later tonight

GL.

Kaunas DP 18:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP
are u still tempted to short cable - TIA

Dallas GEP 18:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Possible top for now on this pound @ 1.8250/60

Dallas GEP 18:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP what does CAT stand for in your last post????

Van jv 18:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP////How did you use your stops? Cover short or B?

Dallas GEP 18:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
It appears someone has finally stepped in FRONT of the eur/cad train going south (first BUY candle in a while). Now whether the train is STOPS here or flat runs over the Eur/CAD longers is unknown at this time.

Chambery FR JFB 18:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ohoh... what an "ambiance"... :-) ML, may I ask? I see a clear channel now, with the lower t/l (1.8152 right now) missed by only a couple of pips... Do you think that we are now beginning a retracement to the 1.8700 area? Comments welcome as always :-)

Rivonia PipPirate 18:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:01 Smile like this Ü

B.A. BOCA 18:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hello all...very extreme situations today, in all pairs it seems. still don't see this as people jumping into the dollar, rather closing their dollar short positions -at any level- anticipating a sentiment shift. the next two days will be key in finding out whether this is a short-term aberration (if so, then $ shorters will come out en force since most m/t players are out of the market now), or a genuine dollar comeback.

one clue would be to see a bad payrolls number, yet continued $ buying.

as for dolcad positions, as mentioned before some players seem to have a heavy hand on the pair, for whatever reason. they cant sit there forever..

nyc jk 18:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham - thanks for that mate, just looking at it now, does seem to have really "held" the trend since breaking up through it a couple of weeks ago. I have not traded the CAD at all today, more just looking at it as an indication for other pairs, but having a great day otherwise. will keep an eye on that one for future, cheers.

Dublin CK 18:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chill out folks

Barcelona JP 18:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SECOND STOP HIT

I LOVE MY SYSTEM. IT'S call CAT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
:-(
why like this?
let's smile together !!! piece !! please !!
none here know... my client get big floating loss today..because with his ego trading. :-(

Pecs Andras 18:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Radne
There is no problem with your English, or your analyses. Many times they are really great.
I think the trouble is that you confuse some people here when you say buy GBP here and target 1.9500, or EUR here and target 1.3400 or WHT
Most of us do not see anything in the charts NOW that would support such moves. Maybe you see something, but we just don't understand what you see.
GL and GT

QC WC 17:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short-term cross-currency views (Duetsche Bank)
From a positioning and fundamental perspective:
* EUR appears to be the currency most at risk in the current environment -- much of the foreign equity allocation into the US is coming from Europe and, as discussed in this week's FX Strategy Weekly, the EUR positioning adjustment to date has underperformed other corrective episodes.
* EUR/JPY (and EUR/AUD) is likely to weaken under the reflation theme and as the BOJ is under less pressure to weaken the yen.
* CAD will likely outperform AUD and NZD, because of the Antipodean's higher-beta nature and CAD's much more favourable positioning situation. (This is a shift in our views of recent quarters.)

Va Raven 17:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 17:51
Actually, I didn't mean anything other than a friendly remind, but since you don't get it, here is my point; not long enough to know what's right and what's not right...... Maybe I shouldn't make the point too clear, but that's all.

Nottingham 17:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 17:46 GMT

Hope your winning mate...I find the 10 day sma quite useful on this pair as it tends to act as floor/cap during trending action...we are a whisker away from it right now and a dip lower could spark some further sales...a significant amount of money has bet on a break higher but it seems a larger amount of money has been willing to cap all the failed breaks up...still all to play for but at this moment bull position is precarious...gl gt

Barcelona JP 17:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FIRST STOP HIT

Dallas GEP 17:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EVERYONE possess gifts that are unique to them. The vast majority of the time they might not even recognize their OWN gift. The realization of one's gifts normally occurrs when SOMEONE recognizes it and acknowledges to that person what they see that is truly special about them. Recogize in others that they do possess something you don't ESPECIALLY in those people you have differing views with. You never know, maybe that person will LEND you HIS gift in exchange for YOURS. THIS IS THE PURPOSE of this forum in my view.

Share and share alike. We ALL have value.

Bristol/UK Stag 17:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD - This may be a naive question but I would appreicate a response (be kind plz!) - IF BOE did not introduce rate hike at 12900, why should they do so now at circa 12100?

Rye, NY et 17:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ottawa 17:50 GMT March 3, 2004
Click on the Currency Converter on the right-hand frame of this forum.........Have a nice trip.......(Eat at Berlinghausen in the Zona Rosa)......................

ICT ML 17:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:26 GMT March 3, 2004
ICT ML 17:19 - I bet you are in this business no more than 5 yrs, tell me I am wrong.

WTH do you mean by that Raven? Am I now a bad guy because I respect the effort and thought Raden Mas puts into his analysis? I can respect ones work without necessarily greeing with it can't I?

And you are right, been in spot FX market less than 5 years..common knowledge, so what's your point?

Ottawa 17:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The US,Canadian exchange rate are fluctuating several points in the last few months.I need an easy conversion scale for both in relation to Pesos-can someone help-trip to Mexico in a few days.

Thanks in advance

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP.
hey.. this forum is for education too, exchange of thousand different of opinion. I trade too here like everyone here. That's disscusse is not bad for you. I am sorry.. caused by my bad English make misunderstanding in translate. LOL
Okay I will go to English course to overcome my bad language. LOL..LOL..LOL

Dallas GEP 17:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Eur/CAD is being systematically dumped. There are have been SEVEN consecutive SELL candles (30 minute) on Eur/CAD. That's no doubt some big boys dumping. I WOULD NOT long usd/cad until eur/CAD stabilizes.

nyc jk 17:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
a note of caution for those wanting to be bullish $ in the short term from these levels:
- $/CAD being sold agressively, close below 1.3370 would mark a reversal day
- $/CHF double top now 1.3075 ish

gl

Nottingham 17:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barca JP...looks like my boys managed the impossible in cad today...they sure are determined to close no higher than key resistances day after day...as I said yesterday, this one will blow big when it finally picks long or short side...gl gt

Van jv 17:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
there are two significant numbers that may change ST/MT landscape---ECB rate cut and US employment ----what is your guess?

Barcelona JP 17:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I do not understand why we keep saying that and this against each other,

We are here to trade. We post what we see, I do not think people is posting to loose

Barcelona JP 17:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD in panic sell

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 17:37 GMT March 3, 2004
don't worry friend about that. in this forum we can share with everyone. many education here. I still learning from everyone here with their comment until now.
in first place I mean like everyone include you.
let's smile !! :-) I hope not get missunderstanding.

L.A. Igrok 17:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Bristol/UK Stag 17:34 GMT March 3, 2004

It wasn't daily. It was supposed to be a longer-term position targeting about 1500 pips below the entry level. Unfortunately sometimes I get bored just watching the market and then I start fixing something that is not even broken. In cases like this one it costs a lot in unrealized profits.

Barcelona JP 17:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Next stops in swissy : 1,3000 - 1,2990 - 1,2970......

But lets see it away from here now first

vancouver jpb 17:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP...... exactamoondo

Barcelona JP 17:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I love you so much

Dallas GEP 17:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, go back and look at GOLDCOAST Martin's posts. He will tell you EXACTLY why it was a freefall. The man was incredible with those Aussie posts.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I feel must explain about what's mean when my stp be get.
That's only guidance of how to read market emotion. if get stp that's mean price will move the opposite of first entry before and then what must we do if like that? should cut reverse, not to worry if trade with tight stp, but need high accuracy number.
see my entry level on chart and check get good FP or not and if we do the opposite when stp number show you I think recovery of loss is easy to be overcome. I hope often get net profit in accumulation trade.

Barcelona JP 17:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Come on 1,3014 swissy

Va Raven 17:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:29 - Admittedly I would be a fool to argue with you anymore as I don't understand what you have been talking about at the first place, Sorry if I have disturbed your ANALYSIS, long or short term right or wrong.

Dallas GEP 17:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
My take on that is this. If you are primarily a short term trader and the market goes against you, you sometimes start to think of your trade PHYSCOLOGICALLY as a POSITION trade which can be dangerous if you have no tolerance for 150-200 pip stops. Raden is a VERY fine analyst along with our Q.

I think it is EXTEMELY difficult to be both a great trader AND a great anaylst. An analyst sometimes will go down with his system especially one that is successful. A great trader has no loyalties to a system and in fact could care less who is right on their view as long as it is the one that is making money. So a great trader basically says, "YOUR WAY, MY WAY, it doesn't matter as long as it is the right way!!!

It's Great to be right on your view but is better to right in the view you choose to follow whether it is yours or not.

prauge viktor 17:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ja Gep it was a free full with aud/usd i left it early on the 75 level maby as u said now lets have time for thinking thank u once again..

Gen dk 17:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Riyadh Monk 17:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hello everyone,

havebeen hanging arround as an observer in the forum.

Hava a Q if someone could comment:

upto where could the EUR/USD and GBP/USD be heading towards friday's payrol figures?!

Deutsche Bank AG revised up their projection to gains of 175,000 in non-farm payrolls, from 145,000 last week!!

jordan joe 17:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
may i ask if any body think $/cad is a long from here

london p 17:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
month or months barcelona

Barcelona JP 17:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Shorted cable, GEP?

Bristol/UK Stag 17:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
L.A. Igrok 17:31 GMT March 3, 2004
"got out with just louzy 200 pips yesterday"!! - I would be a happy man if I could daily make 200 pips!

Barcelona JP 17:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Come on: 1,3014

jordan joe 17:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
thank you both i was not following euro cad moves

Barcelona JP 17:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Reuters:

Rate hike is still month away (FED)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
What a ride with this eur/usd folks. Raden keep calling it the way you want. Any views here can be right, it all depends on the time range. Reminder that this is still a correction of the dollar (and a much needed correction at that) not the actual trend. The line keeps moving and so does the retracement. New retracements are 1.2245-50, 1.2300-05 and 1.2355-60 IMHO later. GL GT

L.A. Igrok 17:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:12 GMT March 3, 2004

I can't see such a level yet. I did myself shorted it at 137.00 but got out with just louzy 200 pips yesterday in hope for making some position adjustment. Surely I failed to get into back again, which is a reason for a major frustration for me now. I hope there will be soem clue soon that would allow to take such position with reasonable stops. However my approach to trading is certainly different than yours and may not fit into your style. I start every trade not from search of the level to enter the market, but instead first look for a reliable stops level for such potential trade. I can't see any of it now. I guess anything above 134.50 might create an opportunity but have no trading plan at the moment.

Barcelona JP 17:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Lets see now if swissy can break 1.3014

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:57 GMT March 3, 2004
I feel must answer your post.
1.like you too I realize sometime I must get wrong. to anticipate that I suggest use stp to manage risk. risk can be designed with tight but need high accuracy.
2. mentality is big problem in FX bussines, and then not good if hope to get low until high. we must focuse on how to get floating profit with good reward ratio. 1 : 3 is very good I think.other words "I realize difficult to hope eat fish from till until head, but I must eat that fish..sometime eat/get only till..sometime only get head.. but delicious if can eat the body(enough difficult).
3.Caused by that make analysis is only variable to guide to eat that fish so analysis is not most important variable.
4.I prefer suggest how to get the high chance of FP although not maximal but often with variable guidance is r/r that be prepared before.

Now I thinking analysis is only suport variable.
This is only sharing.. I am sorry if my comment make your mind not enjoy.

To HK ab,
in my forcasting system 1.2058 is important area.that's only subjective analysis.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gd night all.

fwiw, watch whether those ghost busters show up again in the "thinest" hr....

Dallas GEP 17:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Joe, EUR/CAD shorting is pulling down USD/CAD

Tallinn viies 17:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
selling more euros at 1,2164
moved my stop order to 1,2239
buying back half at 1,2069. and other half at 1,2019.
fwiw

Barcelona Tony 17:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:22 GMT .. moving average close open system?

Barcelona JP 17:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
jordan joe 17:25 GMT March 3, 2004

options

AlexVA Dennis 17:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 17:19 GMT

Still, very much out of character for him since there is no logical or analytical basis for what he has posted. Also it could be more than a little dangerous for the many newbies who hang on his every word it would semm.

Just my take on the topic.

Dallas GEP 17:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, that's probably not a short term possie at this time because of all the movement we have had already. GOLDCOAST Martin would KNOW for sure though if he is on-line.

Chicago YM 17:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Where is Qindex?

Va Raven 17:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 17:19 - I bet you are in this business no more than 5 yrs, tell me I am wrong.

jordan joe 17:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
dose any body have an idea why cad is moving in the other direction of allother majors

prauge viktor 17:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gep shorting aud/usd do u think its a good idea...thanks

Barcelona JP 17:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I LOVE YOU SO MUCH; MACO SYSTEM!!!!

Barcelona Tony 17:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
mmmm ZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZzZz

ICT ML 17:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AlexVA Dennis 17:13 GMT...Raden has been a long termer longer than I have....he has several scearios all planned out, intra-day, mid, and long term...and they are extremely detailed and a lot of thought goes into them I have no doubt.

But I don't always agree with his views, like right now, I am not accumulating for a new up move yet....because we may not have even really seen the beginning of the down move yet.

Raden is a sharp guy though, and I very much respect what he does.

Nottingham 17:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
audjpy...target for long from 2nd oversold (81.7) met at 81.95...no other o/s for this pair today as less than 100% reliable

Dallas GEP 17:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I am flat now waiting for divine wisdom or a call from the physchic friends newtork (Question....Why do they have to ask your name when you call??? Should they know that already??? LOL).

Barcelona JP 17:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
My short in swissy seems that maybe it'll work.

So, if that is what will happen, so not short cable nor ero

HKG SK 17:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Buy US$/Yen Now for 111.20. Any Comment?????

ICT ML 17:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, think I will keep selling into gbp/jpy 200 level on bouncesuntil it gives on ......that seems to be a kep to getting cable to fall to my target right now.....but yes, pound has potential to turn into that monthly sceanario I told you about aweek or so ago.....all the margin calls going on out there, panic selling could accellerate again.......maybe 1.8220 area it could turn back down...we'll see

AlexVA Dennis 17:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Something sounds strange in the last few post's by r m. Perhaps the spirit of Zorro has entered him but it is surely odd that a pip-picker for several motnhs would change to long term on a moments notice.

Barcelona JP 17:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I do not know GEP. My short in usd/chf is not working yet.

Dallas GEP 17:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Igrok, RE: Eur/JPY Where would one SHORT E/Y from that would allow a position to run on auto-pilot with say a 50 pip stop in your view????

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 17:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gep, some yen crosses are booking profit too. Wait for tomorrow action.. Believe it could be even more interesting. Year of MOnkey...

Va Raven 17:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 17:05 - free to post anything please, but don't tell me what you did.

Dallas GEP 17:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ML The pound is looking short again to me but it may be head fake. Short ABOVE fig with stop @ 1.8217 may work. What do you think???

Gen dk 17:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 17:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
KL . I look for bounce points on different pairs. I closed pound a point that it MIGHT have bounced against me at the time. Since it was looking MORE oversold than other pairs, the probability was BETTER at the time that the other pairs would Short MORE. I usually will BANK profits rather than hold for the very last pip.

Barcelona Tony 17:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven 16:57 GMT March 3 ... his way reminds me of mine ... and if I have succeeded why can't he? I don't see any reason why he can't post his thoughts here as any of us does ...

ICT ML 17:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
KL...its because you want ot trade in the direction of the move most of the time, or you will end up getting hammered, like when the GBP-USD finishes lolly gagging here around figure, and decides to head back down potentially...if you reversed, you'd be screwed....I have lots of past experience with trying to reverse everything.....less stress to just find another trade

Rye, NY et 17:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.2090;cut 1.2120;take 1.2030

KL KL 17:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP - why do you close short pound and then look for other pairs to short rather than just do a reverse on the pound/usd? i.e just long the GBP at that level?? Is there a reason people look at other pairs?? for better profit?? Very curious? Possibly same outcome??

Va Raven 16:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
You need to see something good in life live, not in coffin.......

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
friends..
all have been clear.
CU..

Va Raven 16:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I see nothing wrong with raden_masandi's targets but big problem with teh way to achive these targets...........

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I want to get 1300 pips for buy gbp/usd at low today (arround 1.8160) be hold until 1.9500.

I must greedy now for this nice start.

Dallas GEP 16:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
1,8210 is a key level on Pound. Watch for reaction there

Dallas GEP 16:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The longing on the CABLE was the London Fix. Taking profits. Pound should go back down short

Va Raven 16:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I mean "why".....

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Raden, but may I ask what's the significant meanign of this 1.2058 from TA view? tks.

Barcelona JP 16:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Shorted usd/chf

Pecs Andras 16:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Raden
With all due respect, you must be kidding!

Va Raven 16:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi - you have started to buy cable from 1.8748, who do you need so many cables, open your own telecommunication business?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
buy more eur/usd !! have be finished at 1.2058 for continue the major trend. maybe from here price start move up 1.3470

L.A. Igrok 16:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The likely targets at this moment (probably even before the end of the week or shortly after) on the EUR/USD is 1.1785 and on the EUR/JPY is 130.35. So, if reached simultaneously, then USD/JPY unlikely to get over 111.00 meantime. I would say the safest trade for now is to sit on the EUR/JPY shorts (probably any other major JPY crosses as well) with the target at 122.50-70. The only problem is that there is no good level nearby to place stops for such a positional trade.

Barcelona JP 16:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
those longs in cad, take care

Barcelona JP 16:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Lets see what USD/CHF does @ 1,3023 in order to go short o long.

ICT ML 16:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CLosed out, we'll try again to break it later..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
wow ..nice experience about gbp/usd.
continue of major trend seen start from here.
BUY MORE !! but ideal target is so far..sorry if I have target 1.9500

Dallas GEP 16:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Nice Euro trade JP!!!!

Barcelona JP 16:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I'll try a short usd/chf. Not yet.

Barcelona Tony 16:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
anyway just a warning for usd bulls ... we haven't crossed 3065 on $chf so till then the move is not completed...again acting as a very good resistance .... so for now I will stay aside opening new $long possies

Dallas GEP 16:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, I am not sure. One WOULD expect that USD bears would stage a rally before that figure is reached. it CERTAINLY won't be EASY!!!

Barcelona JP 16:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Closed my short eur/usd @ 1,2070 with +90 pips

Barcelona Tony 16:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
btw out on cad trailing stop at +8 (3500)

Tokyo WALL 16:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Now we all know how powerful is the forex market. It breaks all dreams without mercy. GBP is on dead curse short term if it can't stand above 200 on GBP/JPY today. But it should hold well on 1.78 for this huge USD correction IMHO.

ShangHai BC is not the god of forex market. But he surely knows its temper.

London 16:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP right , no wonder i couldnt work it out . Wonder how long this will last.

ICT ML 16:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
seems we found a guy willing to pay 1.2050 for eruo there.....lets see how much he wants...

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, same story, same group of people.......

Barcelona Tony 16:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:34 GMT .. if chf goes to 1.33 I expect an overshoot to 1.35 ... just to let u know my thoughts ... I discount 1.33 as a done target (presumptuos??????????)

Dallas GEP 16:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Took profits on USD/CAD longs @ 1.3500 (trailer)

Dallas GEP 16:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London, THEORY only. When BAD ISM numbers didn't have a large shorting effect on the USD, the USD bulls entered new possies when the usd bears were unable to significantly short USD on bad numbers (USD did short but not all that much - less than 50 pips). USD is a BUY on Rallies and USD bulls took lower USD prices to do just that!!!

ICT ML 16:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Not to ge greedy, but have room for one more trade, think I'll sell aud again if it breaks .7400 here...anyone think I should NOT speak up....

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
chf 1.33, eur 1.19

My system is telling that no matter which way it goes on Thur, if these two numbers are touched, all USD bulls should take a break first.

Gen dk 16:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 16:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Closed usd/jpy longs @ 110.20

Barcelona JP 16:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Next stop in eur/usd: 1,2000 (?????)

chicago cal 16:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
good thing i'm still holding my euro short from 1.2139 i hope you guys made $ on your longs because it's my turn now

prauge viktor 16:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hello Gep by this way we are goinig to see 1,195 very soon what u say about pleas...

Porto PJT 16:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
rsi 9 on gbp, 4 hour chart at 0 ???amazing

London 16:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Can someone please tell me why the USD just rallied so much , been aslleep and cant find out why

Dallas GEP 16:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Run trailing stop on pound shorts if still in NOW

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Time to do this:

hk ab 0.66 09:00 GMT February 27, 2004
hk ab 0.66 06:38 GMT February 26, 2004


long dlr/jpy 107.05, 109.05
short eur/jpy 136.30, gbp/jpy 204.60
short eur 1.2730 1.2745 1.28
nzd options .7050, .7000
chf long 1.2205, 1.2268, 1.2500, 1.2450
aud .7751 short

+ yesterday 1.3400 1.3380 long dlr/cad.

Long aud/nzd positional just starts.

1.1150 x 2, 1.1170 x 2, 1.1180, 1.12

Barcelona Tony 16:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
same trial on cad here gep LOL

Pecs Andras 16:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Great trade, congrat. :-)
I am playing for tomorrow short EUR/GBP at 6652
If BOE hikes, it should be good.

Barcelona Tony 16:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
cashing partially aud/usd short trade (avg 7800) here .. target -don't laugh- 0.65

Stockholm za 16:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   

Livingston nh 16:11 GMT....... ema ( 89 ) = play........ lol....

Dallas GEP 16:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 1.3500 now trailer on USD/CAD now

Dallas GEP 16:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
trailing stop on usd/cad @ 1.3190

Barcelona JP 16:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
trail, trail.....

ICT ML 16:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
There we go...all can dive in harmony now....LOL
still have a short gbp/jpy that just opened hasn't done much, that kind of worries me, but the euro is headed to my fib target 1.2020 and gbp to 1.8125...and now the gbp/jpy just caught up....gonna be another good day!

Gen dk 16:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 16:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thnaks JP.... Cable hit 1,8180 target on cable watch for bounce here. (I got out earlier and banked pips).

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd show 1.8190..that';s mean will get 1.8170-60.
better exit your sell there if until now your sell still be hold.

Barcelona Tony 16:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
o_O more action

Gen dk 16:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona JP 16:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, good call in cable

SanFrancisco tg 16:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sorry - "to be as we can" should read "to be as weak" in my 16:16

Barcelona Tony 16:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
oops, that post was for JP and cad

Barcelona JP 16:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CAD signal given

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
why didn't I enter the eur/chf and be greedy to wait overshoot to 1.59? hahaha!

Barcelona Tony 16:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gone long myself at 3492 fwiw

Gen dk 16:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 16:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
pound could punch thru FIG though

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd.
9..8..7..6..5.. bang bang !!

Dallas GEP 16:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
took profit @ 1.8212 on pound

Barcelona JP 16:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ready to go long in cad?

It's up to you, I'll give the signal

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nice for today.
I want to see what will happen with gbp/usd when touch 1.8201. maybe...as extreme bottom?

Barcelona Tony 16:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 16:14 GMT ..absolutely Andras, no trading from my side as of now but I posted that because euro hasn't penetrated into the downward trendline again as gbp has done ... so it could perfectly be a false move by gbp (another one? LOL!!) or a leading one ... but while euro holds as it is doing now above 2115 ... well .... it isn't done yet

Dallas GEP 16:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
trailing stop now on POUND @ 1.8225

SanFrancisco tg 16:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
A recent indication for me that the market might stick more too long dollars was the virtual non reaction to the European Union trade sanctions flung at the United States recently. Such an issue could have caused strong dollar selling in the not too distant past, but perhaps the U.S. economy is not being viewed to be as we can now as it is still hyped in some circles, along with EU actions being met with a scoff by the market in general. Such would remain consistent with the overall market view of recent years. This is not to say, of course, that euros will not be bought again shortly.

Pecs Andras 16:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Tony
This is crazy market now! LOL

Barcelona Tony 16:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
as said ... better shut my ...ck up LOL ... fast

Barcelona JP 16:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
HK

Barcelona JP 14:29 GMT March 3, 2004
The signal to short eur/usd is here.

It's up to you. Take care

Livingston nh 16:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Cable has broken the 55 da EMA - it was the last hold-out above that level

Gen dk 16:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona Tony 16:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I'm sorry but for near -short- term I disagree with your trade fellows, unless euro breaks 1.2115 .. where I would shut my ..ck up and agree with you LOL!

Gen dk 16:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ICT ML 16:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP...yeah, I sold some too, we'll see where it goes

Nottingham 16:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
audcad...now at 1st o/s level 1.0055...2nd 9950...I have a third (since we are carry flow inspired so volatility larger) at 9860 which happens to coincide with a 38.2 fibo...gl gt

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 16:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 15:58 GMT March 3, 2004
Isn't that nice, my short eur/usd @ 1,2160!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1



oh, did ya? I didn't notice.

Barcelona JP 16:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Lets see now if 1,2120 breaks

Dallas GEP 16:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Target 1.8185 on pound short

Barcelona JP 15:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Isn't that nice, my short eur/usd @ 1,2160!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
and I am a bit reluctant to open usd long position (new) if eur/gbp keeps moving north.

Dallas GEP 15:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Shorted pound @ 1.8254

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// I think dlrcad will move more and faster than chf.

Barcelona JP 15:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Maybe right. That's why I wait my system to give me the signal.

Dallas GEP 15:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ML. the pound looks heavy heavy

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP I do LIKE your but level better BUT, it may not get there.

Barcelona JP 15:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 15:49 GMT March 3, 2004
ab -- how about buy dlr/chf at 1.288, if seen?

NOT YET

Dallas GEP 15:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OK This is the deal. IMO we are not going to get clear signals to buy or sell partially because the pricing action has skewed the charts IMO. So IMO, some of these buy and sells are going to have to be based on levels and the probability that you entry EVEN if you are wrong will be passed thru again. That's the theory. Neither one of my last two entries are at ideal levels BUT they may not get there before going my direction anyway.

Barcelona JP 15:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, could be wrong, but I think USD/JPY coulb be a buy @
109,85-109-95

Nottingham 15:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Athens 15:41 GMT

Interesting you mention 27 year history...my cable studies for example go back to 1973 and I have found that o/b o/s degrees seen then are no longer met these days but once or twice a year we may start to approach some historic o/b o/s levels...to be fair cable least respects theory of o/b o/s so probably not best example but you get my point that you either make a stand and adjust accordingly or risk waiting all year for a trade that really is only contra...gl gt

hong kong nt 15:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab -- how about buy dlr/chf at 1.288, if seen?

Barcelona JP 15:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Boston, March 3:
It gives you an idea how much sentiment has shifted in recent days. In the past,
it was the dollar that could not rally on good news. Now it can"t sell-off on
"bad" news. The service sector ISM is still at high levels, but off the highs
seen last month. The closely watched employment index dipped in February, in
contrast to the manufacturing ISM on Monday.
EUR/USD remains offered on rallies to 1.2180. More offers are seen toward
1.2215/20. [email protected]/rs

NY EMIRAGE 15:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OK GEP...

Barcelona JP 15:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT March 3, 2004
Bought some usd/jpy @ 110.06

I don't see it yet

Dallas GEP 15:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Yes Emirage, I was going to get back to you on that todar later. VERY impressive!!!

Barcelona JP 15:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
When I get a signal to go long USD/CAD, I let you know.

Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Bought some usd/jpy @ 110.06

Rye, NY et 15:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.2155; cut 1.2180; take 1.2090

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
when funds pushed down eur last night 16:00 GMT seems not too many people awared....

Athens 15:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
bloemfontein KN 12:08, sorry for belated response. I believe one year measurements are a very short period to define weekly ranges and aberrations. The rule of thumb I mentioned os based on 27 years trading activity but I haven't actually measured the proce movees in detail, so please take those moves I mentioned as broad measurements

168 15:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
i short euro at 1.2142 and a1.2139
how can i do ?

bucharest dan 15:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I trade with them, is this something new?

NY EMIRAGE 15:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Morning all...
GEP did you get my email with that chart?

Barcelona JP 15:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
DO not go long in CAD yet.

SanFrancisco tg 15:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Healine # on the data is surely less than expected, but there are components which are positive, and this data swings a lot also from report to report. Market is positive dollars but I don't think the data should be considered a non-factor.

Barcelona JP 15:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
For those that trade with C.M.S or have a demo, look at Ultimate Oscillator.
You can find stuff in this site if you want:

http://visualtradingcharts.com/

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// the nzd didn't pull to the .6720! missed by 1 pip?!

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
caught 2 lots aud/nzd long 1.1150 for more position trades.

Nottingham 15:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT
I'll go with that one...likely that 1.3420/40 is tested...would be nice to see that and my eurcad o/s at same time...gl gt

Dallas GEP 15:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
eur/cad pulling down on usd/cad currently

bandung dewan 15:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
any idea about GBP/USD now?

FRA Gustav 15:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP / good call, you managed to see the firm facts.
prices are raising, very good call!

Dallas GEP 15:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Maybe could get some usd/cad @ 1.3450 area that is lower BB

Nottingham 15:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
eurcad...1st o/s 1.6325 2nd 1.6270...gl gt

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Bought usd/cad @ 1.3489

Barcelona JP 15:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Look at prices, look at prices. They increase.
And that all we know what it means.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nzd is the latest to retrace. So, the latest to finish...

Dallas GEP 15:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Andras, I completely agree. Last week if those ISM figures were announced THEN, we would have probably have had a 100 PIP USD selloff.

USD/CAD may be a great bargain to LONG here. I am looking at it now

Barcelona JP 15:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Boston, Mar 3--
The ISM"s nonmanufacturing index posted at 60.8 compared to a January reading of
65.7. The reading compared to a consensus call of 63.4 with a low estimate in
IFR"s February 27 survey of 61.0. A moderation in new orders growth (60.3) set
the tone, along with a decline in the employment index (52.7).
Service activity has now expanded for eleven consecutive months with the ISM
index averaging a reading of 60.6. In February 12 industry groups reported
growth, while three noted a contraction and two reported no change from January.
Increased business activity was reported by 35% of respondents, compared to 40%
in January. Reduced activity was reported by only 13% of members compared to 20%
in January. The remaining 52% of members indicated no change in business
activity compared to 40% in January. Recall that the ISM service index is not a
composite index like its manufacturing counterpart but a query about general
business conditions.
The new orders index fell to 60.3 from 64.9. This is below an average reading
of 62.3 recorded in the prior six months. Order backlogs fell to 53.0 from
53.5. Inventories continued to fall but the slowing was negligible as the index
was little changed at 49.0 vs. 49.5 in January. Members remained concerned that
supplier"s inventories were too high as the inventory sentiment index was at
58.0 versus 59.0 in January.
Prices rose again. The prices paid index posted at 57.3 vs. 59.7 in January. The
slower rate of increase in the price index compares to faster price increases in
factory input prices. In February, the percentage of members reporting higher
prices increased five percentage points to 31% from 26% in January. The
proportion indicating no change dropped 10 percentage points to 60% while the
number who noted lower prices increased 5 percentage points to 9%.
The industries reporting the highest rates of increase in prices paid in
February were: Wholesale Trade; Agriculture; Construction; Mining; and Real
Estate. The only industry reporting price decreases in February is Business
Services.
The employment index implied an augmentation in service-sector payrolls, which
bodes well ahead of the February employment report Friday. However, the pace of
growth was slower than in January which will have the markets concerned.
The ISM employment index posted at 52.7 vs. 53.4 in January.
The export orders index rose to 55.5 from 51.0. The imports index rose to 58.5
from 54.5.
The ISM noted that general comments on business in February continued to
indicate optimism concerning economic activity. Comments included: "Things are
getting better, faster"; "Economy warming up, but very slowly"; "Continue strong
same-store sales growth"; "More business meetings"; and "Fewer controls on
spending." The industries reporting the highest rates of growth of business
activity last month were: Mining; Transportation; Insurance; Retail Trade; and
Communication. The industries reporting contraction of business activity in
February were: Construction; Entertainment; and Finance & Banking.
Overall this report has little correlation with broader measures of economic
activity but the markets continue to look to it for direction as the service
economy is an important engine for US growth. [email protected]



[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]

Barcelona JP 15:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Maybe wrong, but I thonk eur/usd will fight between this range: 1,2170 - 1,2120.

If one of those breaks, it'll be interesting. I do not know if rewrding also.

Livingston nh 15:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
those ISM numbers are for MFG I think - not today's release

Pecs Andras 15:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I think this is a clear change in sentiment.
Eben a week ago dollar would have sold off 200 pips in no time on "bad" data like this.

Barcelona JP 15:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I do not know what you think, but seems to be a big stone above euro's rates.
So, momentum is down and I think the better play is on bearish site. (?????)
We'll see.

dc fxq 15:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
From Briefing

* February ISM index fell 2.2 points to 61.4 -- first decline since Sep.

Key Factors

* Moderate decline after a 20 year high is reflective of high levels in the components rather than a downturn in activity.
* Both new orders (66.4) and production (63.9) fell off after the very high 71 levels in Jan.
* Employment showed another encouraging gain to 56.3 -- lagging index argues for near term payroll gains.
* Volatile prices paid (input costs) jumped to 81.3 as output lacks pricing power given excesses/global competition. Profits take the hit.
* Strong demand for capital investment is helping to drive strong import orders.
* Export orders have fallen off the strong 60 of Dec as improved global growth and the weak dollar provide support.

Porto PJT 15:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, thanks, g night.

Barcelona JP 15:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Happy, signal worked out well.

prauge viktor 15:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ja BJ but the forcaset it was 57 thats meanining its better then exp.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP// above 60 could never be said as "worst".....

France Lucky Strike 15:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Short euro at 1.2140 target 1.2100

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// I just tried .6720 but fail
now am happy to sit and wait for the end show in March. Unless some v. trivial spike sets in, otherwise, keeping all these positions are delicious enough.

Barcelona JP 15:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Take care: ISM is worst than expected and eur/usd is not going north.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
oops, above 60 again....

Nottingham Daniel 15:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ISM 60.8 v 65.7 JAN

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt, maybe during Easter. hahaha

I think the beauty of the aud and nzd is when eur, jpy,gbp crosses unwind on them.

bucharest dan 15:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
bad news for dollar?

Swiss DG 15:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
60.8

AlexVA Dennis 15:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
drop the caps and shouting HK ray, be civil. :)

HONG KONG RAY 14:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
IF STRONG USD IS IN PLACE AGAIN,THERE IS NO MORE SIGNIFICANT TO EASE UP THE TRIPLE DEFICIT,IT IMPLIES THAT BUSH WILL LOSE HIS SEAT LIKE HIS FATHER.

melbourne farmacia 14:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT - yeah got that too, support won't last for long. I'll send y a interesting long term chart tomorrow, bed time after data. GT

hong kong nt 14:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab -- when free go aberdeen eat seafood?

Gen dk 14:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CT DB 14:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 14:44,
sit down before u hurt yourself! Now RATIONALY explain why u believe euro is such a good buy here. Please dont rant and rave, it only aggravates the forum and does nothing for your future credibility.

GL & GT

FRA Gustav 14:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk / mate, we live in extreme times, this is all I can say.

nyc jk 14:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gustav with EUR at 1.3010 I will not be able to even walk a block with all the cameras in the way!, lol. you may be right on that level eventually, but its not going to happen soon imo.

FRA Gustav 14:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab / catch the EUR trein, even a French trein is safe to this ride...:)

Porto PJT 14:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, weekly trendline on gbp/usd have been tested once today, next attempt and brake could acelaratte downside on gbp, makes sense?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 14:34 GMT March 3, 2004
HK ab / rate cut will not serve any European objective, if ECB wants to kill the old continent now than they will take the rates below 2%.

The EU/EUR need 1.3010+++ to allow the new comers to be less costy for the current members, 450M people on US paylist it is too much even for USA...EU wants/must to be USA (does not matter what they say) and strong EUR (1.3010+++) is needed to purchase the US way of life.




Excuse me, but I fully don't understand what you are talking about......

according to what bc taught, it's always the latest comers make the most noise.

FRA Gustav 14:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 14:37 GMT / and more of these cameras need EUR above 1.3010+++ - the :) sign have a meaning....life are too short to take seriously as you do...:)

Long EUR and make more money that you will never spend...:)

nyc jk 14:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 14:05 GMT March 3, 2004
cannot understand the raise in USD as anyway it is immpossible to enter USA as tourist

mate you should take a walk down 5th Avenue in Manhattan and get see all the camera toting visitors looking up at the tall buildings on every block and you might retract that statement!

FRA Gustav 14:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
HK ab / rate cut will not serve any European objective, if ECB wants to kill the old continent now than they will take the rates below 2%.

The EU/EUR need 1.3010+++ to allow the new comers to be less costy for the current members, 450M people on US paylist it is too much even for USA...EU wants/must to be USA (does not matter what they say) and strong EUR (1.3010+++) is needed to purchase the US way of life.

Athens 14:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Re my 12:46, some 50 pip profits can be taken on each in both EUR/$ and $/CHF contras and allow for the market to settle.

Chambery FR JFB 14:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 14:26 GMT March 3, 2004
Thx.. it usually takes me more time to decipher your (technical) posts than to figure out what's going on on my charts, but I have got this one at first reading lol:-) Happy trades to U2 :-)

LA saint3 14:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
farmacia ...
i am looking at 3 hours and 30 mins charts

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 14:25 GMT March 3, 2004
ya.. I agree, but in that day price have high at 1.3070
we will wait that together. I prefer say "you are genius than crazy". LOL

Barcelona JP 14:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London 14:27 GMT March 3, 2004
Barcelona JP at what time is the ISM thanks

15 gmt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
One more thing I would like to add on the eur/usd as you can tell on the 1hr chart that the 20ma line has been the resistance (1.2190 at the moment) all along this move. I believe that has to be taken soon for a healthy bounce to be produced IMHO.

Barcelona JP 14:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The signal to short eur/usd is here.

It's up to you. Take care.

Chicago YM 14:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ism at 1500 gmt

Rivonia PipPirate 14:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
and z(za)a ż

London 14:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP at what time is the ISM thanks

CT DB 14:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 14:26,
Have another spliff on me! (LOL)

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Now even Greensy can't help to beat USD at this moment.
Maybe ECB announces no cut tomorrow in high profile (which don't think they will do) Otherwise, zig-zag movement towards 200 dma and 250 dma is anticipated.

Stockholm za 14:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB ...... Yes....
There is always a :-
Trend inside a trend inside a trend.........
zone inside a zone inside a zone........
Range inside a range inside a range.....
Cycle inside a cycle inside a cycle.....
Timezone inside a timezone inside a timezone.....
Lost inside a lost inside a lost.....
Profit inside a profit inside a profit......
etc..etc..etc

Happy trades and C U later....... ....

FRA Gustav 14:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP 14:19 / we live in extreme times, 1.3010 during this month - you may call me crazy today and genius on expiry day (26/MAR/2004) 10:00 NY time...:)

Those days, bears need EUR @ 1.3010 to get a full stomach.

Nottingham 14:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
audjpy...meets target (82.7) from 1st o/s (82.4)...next sys buy at 81.7

melbourne farmacia 14:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
LA saint3 14:16 GMT March 3, 2004
Stop looking at ya 5 mins charts mate.

Barcelona JP 14:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
We have ISM today, so better wait.

Livingston nh 14:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
pippip - why not dinars ?? - BUY EUR/USD - hold until 1400 GMT Friday -

Barcelona JP 14:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav

I said " ready.....?"

There are bearish diver whenever you look at.

But the signals isn't here yet.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
s3, which chart you are talking about showing "bullishness" on eur???


I am looking for 200 dma, not much not less. by Q1.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Looks like eur/usd has bounced off the 38% retracement line for the eur/usd from the September move and looking to unwind before another move can be made. Next numbers on the list are 1.1975-70, 1.1850-55 and 1.1595-1600. It is sell on rallies mode at the moment but things can change in a heart beat so don’t get to comfortable thinking this will last forever. There is news coming up on Thursday and Friday that can change the whole mood for the bears. Retracement numbers have changed to 1.2270-75, 1.2325-30 and 1.2375-80. Resistance is at 1.2220-25 and heavy resistance at around 1.2330-35 area IMHO. GL GT

LA saint3 14:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
i dont understand why you guys keep shorting eur or gbp..
isnt it kind of clear from the chart .. they are giving buy signal?

comment pls.. Thanks

FRA Gustav 14:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
JP 14:08 / exactly, this is the reason why he just gave a three month VIAGRA supply to the EUR...do not say that I did not tell you...as in G-D they trust and all others pay cash, we all have to buy EUR now...:)

Barcelona JP 14:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ready to short eur/usd?

It's up to you. I'll give the signal.

Nottingham 14:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
euro...target for o/s longs from today (see earlier) will be met at 1.2187 while target for combined o/s from yesterday and today will be met at 1.2184...may move higher still (but no guarantee, so don't trade on this expectation alone) as there are still some targets to meet at higher up but unless we see above 1.221 today these are likely to be settle Thurs/Fri/Mon...gl gt

Chambery FR JFB 14:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 13:56 GMT March 3, 2004
tend to agree with you... But the t/l on short timeframes (say 2h, 1h, 30min) show a descending trend, but prices are currently lying on the bottom line of it... so they may well stay in the trend but move up, right? GT

Tallinn viies 14:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
so, got fill. sold more euros at 1,2164

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
don't overwhelm excuses with the move you see.
T.A. is T.A........

islamabad pippip 14:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hey nh wat should i buy right now us or euro ?

Mtl JP 14:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gustav 14:05 / maybe relligion Gustav, look what is printed on the paper :-)

Nottingham 14:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 14:03 GMT

if they consider currency they will be more concerned with rise in trade weighted index, at least in the past they have made refernce to its moves...gl gt

FRA Gustav 14:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
cannot understand the raise in USD as anyway it is immpossible to enter USA as tourist, if tourists cannot use USD, maybe someone can tell me what is changed to make USD to be so wanted?

Livingston nh 14:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The drop in the EUR has made ECB action on rates very unlikely but the drop in sterling has made a hike by MPC more likely - some of the concerns expressed by MPC at last meeting are still present - the elimination of an ECB cut of 1/4 gives MPC that cushion which would otherwise have been a 1/2 point widening of yields

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 14:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
viies, did you reload 1.2160?

islamabad pippip 13:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hi i am new guide me wat to buy and wat to not thanks guys

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// still around?

Stockholm za 13:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB .... You are NEVER alone .... lol..
Just remember we are in a new distribution pase for today, finding the range is key..etc..etc
Happy trades......

Livingston nh 13:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AlexVa - ISM non-mfg is minor but more important than the mfg report issued Monday - watch the employment in this sector and the prices paid component // retracement of this USD rally needs a trigger excuse and anything may suffice today

Nottingham 13:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 13:47 GMT

normally that's your greatest chance for success...

Chambery FR JFB 13:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thx for the comments guys... Seems that if I go long, I will be by myself...? lol. Happy trades.

AlexVA Dennis 13:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dan 13:33

What figures? No US data until 10:00 (15:00 GMT) and that is ISM service - minor report.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 13:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
funds exit at the thinest moment (during NY close last night).... many dollars bears are still squealing.....

Nottingham 13:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
audjpy o/s 82.40 2nd 81.70

SA getFX 13:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
bucharest dan 13:33 GMT > Initial claims are tomorrow. Today, ISM at 10:00 EST.

chicago cal 13:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nice trades today raden!

bucharest dan 13:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know the figures?

Stockholm za 13:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
NYC sa >> See ......

Stockholm za 11:18 GMT March 3, 2004
It`s still good to go ......
Happy trades........

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ln 13:02 GMT March 3, 2004
what is about your what?
free forum about all of forex comment?

nyc sa 13:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm , could u please give the yen/chf levels plz ? thnx .

Stockholm za 13:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB ....Move up on your time frame before you get confuse .......... lol.........

ema ( 5+8 ) = safe {3 hour }
Happy trades to you .....

nyc jk 13:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
well done Tony, gt. I think $/chf could correct back to at least 1.29 before resuming uptrend

ICT ML 13:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 13:06 ......appears to be trying to get some traction for a swing up to ema200 area today maybe....very good observation JFB...

Barcelona Tony 13:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
well, half long chf out at 3065 ... couldn't do it better ...

SA getFX 13:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 13:06 GMT > See cooment 08:13 GMT.
However, trend won so far!

Chambery FR JFB 13:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Anyone seeing this divergence on GBP 30', between MACD going up and new lows being made? On the verge of a move up? Comments very welcome :-) TIA

ln 13:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:45 GMT.

What???

Dallas GEP 12:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Took profit on USD/JPY shorts @ 110.20

Livingston nh 12:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
raden - stops that tight in this environment and you could be chasing your tail all day trying to get in and stay in

Chambery FR JFB 12:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 12:56 GMT March 3, 2004
Complement : AZF is supposed to have installed 10 pre-programmed bombs (not remotely activated) along the TGV railways.

Chambery FR JFB 12:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 12:49 GMT March 3, 2004
Yes :-) Seems this is something initiated in January or February this year, the "group" (called AZF, which is the name of the factory plant that exploded on 09/21/2001, killing 30 and injurying 2000 - an accident) asks for 5$M... (may be to trade Forex? lol) They also gave the GPS coordinates of one bomb, that was later discovered, the police says it was not high tech, but "simply and efficiently designed..." The news only appears today, can't say there is any terrorist phobia here now... and don't think it may affect the Euro value imvho :-) Thanks for asking anyway :-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
today give us the fact. sell Chf at 1.3073 and stp when see 1.3088, and buy gbp/usd at 1.8273 with stp if see 1.8263..or buy at 1.8292 with stp if see 1.8282 (get floating profit 65 pips with risk 10 pips)..tight stp. is this lucky ?
I hope you get that "lucky" today.

GVI john 12:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
If you check out our Daily Market tracker today, you will see two interesting things. Note the rise in Euro Sterling rates over the past 1 and 4 weeks, and the jump in JGB yields.

CLICK HERE

Melbourne Qindex 12:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:44 GMT March 3, 2004
Spot Gold : We can see 378.4 very soon! The immediate target is 387.2.

Ldn 12:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gold $389.70

Tallinn viies 12:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
have you heard something about terrorists and bombs and France railway?

Melbourne Qindex 12:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:17 GMT March 3, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... 1.1967 // 1.1997 - 1.2028 - (1.2058) - 1.2089 - 1.2119 - 1.2150 - (1.2181) - 1.2211 // 1.2242 - 1.2272 ... 1.2364...


The odds are good that the market will test the supporting strength of the lower barrier if 1.2150 fails to hold.

Stockholm za 12:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.......... EUR/USD........

( Nov 28 BO factor ) + ( ema [233] ) = RSI (14 ) > 30

Happy trades........

Athens 12:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
PORTO VMA, both EIUR/$ in the low 1.21's and $/CHF in the mid 1.30's are suitable for contra trades today, provided one doesn't use a price stop but only a time stop (24-48 hours). Needless to say that as contra trades they should be treated so an not held as positions. OK I am out of here now, good luck.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
friends..If you will follow my trade strategy, I hope not thinking about lucky variable. I want to help you to manage your tight risk control with high accuracy.
I think my stp numbers is seldom be touch at top/bottom. If get stp that's mean we will get clear direction of movement.
when price touch my stp..I get important information where price will move and we can do follow that information.
lucky is on everywhere, but my number be get by hard thinking and analysis and longtime research and testing.I never give my view with lucky factor.

Rivonia PipPirate 12:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
re 12:33 GMT See Sir ema55 and Sir Trendalot are standing by. Ü

GER ad 12:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
Oüt at 1.2136

PORTO VMA 12:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Athens 12:34 GMT March 3, 2004
What you think for a counter trend open in eurusd at this moment?

GVI john 12:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2125…$/yen 110.40
DJIA -23 pts… 10-yr 4.06%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
Commentary available on GVI

Athens 12:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/$ reached my second major short term target 1.2100 (re. 19:09 Tuesday). Anything under this level would be heavily O/S for the day.

Rivonia PipPirate 12:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Her Royal Lowness is skating on thin ice. Any wealthy knights around to save her from a fate worse thn debt should she fall into the abyss?

Almaty G7 12:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sold GBP morning at 1.8397... close at 1.8303. Wait to go short again. But market is very volatil. Any view on short enter?
TIA

AlexVA Dennis 12:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
NAIROBI bootsy - UIC tomorrow and called -5k to 345k.

nyc jk 12:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
shorted $/CHF 1.3056 sl over 1.31, see how we go on the downside

NAIROBI bootsy 12:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
do the europeans know something we don't know ??
short EUR again at 1.2150 for 1.2100 support.

Any word on US jobless claims ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
see my trade strategy and do that with discipline.

Ldn 12:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SLC TJ I am the same, anyone got an idea on it AUD

Nottingham 12:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
highly probably that euro tests 1.2330 next week, regardless of what happens during the remainder of this week...caution urged to those opening fresh shorts at current levels, particularly if further out than intraday...gl gt

Stockholm za 12:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 12:14 GMT >>>>>
If i may ask what is your motivation for that trade..... ??

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
becarfull !!
now is the critical time.
maybe price move up for eur/usd and gbp/usd and usd/chf move down .

Tallinn viies 12:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
selling again half at 1,2164 and other half at 1,2204

Tallinn viies 12:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
back from lunch and now seems that had I taken half profit....

chicago cal 12:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
if i'm right i'll make a lot of money, if i'm wrong i'll b-even or maybe lose a little, it dosen't really matter, it's just one trade out of a few hundred i'll make this year

SLC TJ 12:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
What is holding the AUD/USD up? I expected another leg down. Anyone? TIA

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
trail chf long at 1.3050?

chicago cal 12:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
tp on usd/chf long is 1.3160 and/or 1.3210

GER ad 12:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD at 1.2112 tight S/L

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 12:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
we are under similar situation in 2002 Mar......

Don't forget to buy the pull back in eur, gbp, and chf.

I place my exit at 1.33, 1.1930 for all USD longs and reverse there.

bloemfontein KN 12:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Athens 11:52

interesting comments Athens , i've done a study on the weekly and monthly moves of the CHF in 2002 and received the following results: average move between H-L when the chf close up was 285 pips and for closing down the week was 359 pips,

I just don't know how valid and how you can trade these numbers sort of put this on the backburner for the time being.

Would like to hear some comments

cheers

Barcelona Tony 12:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
and, btw, here we go, my 3065 on usdchf target ... we'll see from here

Barcelona Tony 12:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
good eur short from viies here, very precise

chicago cal 12:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
looks like some technical trades are kicking in (including mine)

Almaty G7 12:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!
Any rumors on sharp diving on GBP from 1.8360 to 1.8310?
TIA

AlexVA Dennis 11:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Re the discussion of technicals vs fundamentals: in the course of the long march higher in EURUSD weak fundamentals were conistently ignored. In the end however fundamentals reign as "hot money" is incredibly fickle as long term perma USD bears and EUR bulls are learning at the moment.

Athens 11:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
$/CHF (for reference)-- Although there have been some rare cases (extreme aberrations) where this pair has stretched by some 700 pips (during the course of the week) from a weekly close, as a rule the maximum stretching between two consequtive weekly closings doesn't exceed about 400 pips. Last Friday this pair finished at 1.2615.

sng km 11:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I dont agree with the notion of buying currency for carry. Look at the AUD 2 percent wiped out in a day. Not much for carry

SLC TJ 11:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gbp??

Chambery FR JFB 11:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
PAR 11:40 GMT March 3, 2004
Par, plz take no offense, but yesterday you said UK banks were defending the 1.8550 level, we are now 200 pips lower, this morning you said the CIPS of the "best economy" in the world was going to outperfom the expected number, which it didn't... I guess we all agree on the rates difference, but that really don't help me much (intraday/medium term trader) :-) GL anyway :-)

Barcelona Tony 11:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London DD 11:35 GMT ... trade deficit neither counts in my account nor yours, so, instead of watching the trade deficit, I try to follow what big technical players do, because, at least for myself, my own profits are the only ones that count, and I don't try to save the world or a specific country from its trade deficit...

PAR 11:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Buy GBP since UK interest rates are 3 times US rates and 2 times European rates. With such interest rate differentials GBP is currency to hold.

london cam 11:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London DD 11:29 GMT March 3, 2004
much truth in your comments, but its not that simple. however if you want to follow fundamentals, you should be trading long term positions which requires a much larger than average account. If you want to trade intraday then 'TRY' to follow the market moves and jump on the bandwagon. don't try to predict. All IMHO of course
GL

Dallas GEP 11:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Market is extremely reluctant to SELL dollars it seems (NS!!!) What that means is that unless this changes we will have pretty shallow pullbacks. The dollar bulls I am sure are asking themselves how much lower we can go without some retracement on these moves. I think we need catalyst now and that MAY take the form of this upcoming DATA out today.

Ldn 11:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sustainable USD technical bullish reversals are looking enhanced, says Merrill. USD/JPY above 110.00, both EUR/USD and cable suffering bearish reversals through 1.2335 and 1.8560 resp, supports this view. With 1Q USD lows confirmed, risk for more severe USD advances in 2Q and 3Q has increased significantly reuters

Livingston nh 11:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
DD - what happens when the US trade deficit starts to shrink??

Saihat 11:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London SS
i maybe buy expansive at 203.20-30

and stop at 202.60

target not more than 204.25

London DD 11:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 11:32 GMT March 3, 2004
That is very very true. But are technical traders able to reduce the growing deficit? TIA.

Brisbane JM 11:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony, Thanks. I just closed I think it may grind its way a touch higher tonight. I will look to short again at 1.8450 ish. G/T

Barcelona Tony 11:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London DD 11:29 GMT ... unfortunately, there are technical traders that have enough funds to trade to change what fundamentals say...beware of them.

London DD 11:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The dollar move was only based on technical analysis and option stops and has little fundamental support. Therefore it should retrace back. America still has a growing deficit, and its economy is still in turmoil. Is this true or not?

London SS 11:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
gbp/jpy looking a great buy @202.50 was heading for 205.80 resistance zone before eur/usd brought it back over last session. anybody got any remarks?

Barcelona Tony 11:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane JM 10:45 GMT .. well, I'm looking for sub 1,78, but I will exit if 1.81 holds well, if that helps, gt gl to you mate

Ldn 11:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia are you also see that Dlr running out of steam for now

Stockholm za 11:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
CHF/JPY ....... Today
8612-8583 -z1
8561-8545 -z2
8528-8517 -z3 = ~ema( 144 )
8510-8502 -z4
8493-8478 -z5
8463-8454 -z6
8446-8439 -z7
8428-8411 -z8
8395-8373 -z9
8344-8312 -z10
Happy trades ..............

Ldn 11:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex was just wondering if it was a short term buy here seems to be out of puff

melbourne farmacia 11:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 11:05 GMT March 3, 2004
I'm feeling dollar might pull back too. Dumped all aussie shorts from today on last selling wave , plus div at lows.

SLC TJ 11:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
anyone see us testing euro support again this morning?

Dallas GEP 11:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Well friends, I am looking for a little inner wisdom here, but I am not finding any!!! LOL I did short usd/jpy from 110.41 to see if that option will hold up @ 110.50 (march 5 expiration). Probably can't get more than 20-30 pips out of it.

Melbourne Qindex 11:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 05:51 GMT - AUD/USD : This one is really in trouble.

chicago cal 11:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
my short term lines S and R lines are usually reliable i have a support line on eur/usd 1.2145 off by only 10 pips

nyc jk 11:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ok thanks cal. maybe would be good for a few pips on break of that lvl then, just wonder if we run outta steam today for $ though. gl

chicago cal 11:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
this trade would be similar to my euro short yesturday; i was long at 1.2355 then SAR'd @ 1.2330 to bad i did not log onto forum and post it yesterday

chicago cal 10:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
yea, maybe i'm not really biased either way i have a R line drawn at 1.3032 and will buy on a break above this; another idea would be to go short here then SAR @ 1.3037

Tallinn viies 10:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
left order to buy back half of my short euro at 1,2116. fwiw
going out for lunch ...

nyc jk 10:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
cal don't you think $/chf may be nearing overextended conditions for the short term? see shanghai bc 04:51 GMT March 3, 2004

Brisbane JM 10:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony, What is your target for short GBP? I am short as well looking to exit around low 1.82's Thanks

Tallinn viies 10:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
selling more euros here at 1,2140 fwiw

Barcelona Tony 10:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 10:28 GMT ... well, they tried to make me think my indicators were worng at 1.86 gbp and 1.24 euro, when they made false signals when in fact that seldom happens. So, instead of closing, and as you may know, I just added in every new signal it gave me for gbp, aud, euro and chf. So now things are correct again -as it should be- and in the good side .... making very nice money indeed, hope you too friend, which I know you are ;-) GT GL ab

chicago cal 10:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
have a buy stop @ 1.3037

chicago cal 10:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf is at a critical level now! buy on a break upwards from here

gl,gt

hk ab 0.66 10:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Tony, seldom, see this kind of move recently eh...


London DD 10:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Good morning/day/night traders,
Would it be a good or bad idea to sell gold at 390?

Madras KR 10:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
1.2150/45 is 50% retracement of 1.1375-1.2925.Also it is 1.382 times of move from 1.2900 to 1.2335.But no signs of bottom yet.Let us see.GL.

Gen dk 10:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Barcelona Tony 10:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
$chf target 1.3065 for now (remember that my initial target is 1.33).. if that number is broken ... 1.33 will be a joke, will look for 1.35 at least ... so 1.3065 key for next move .. with interest rate decision tomorrow that could lead to the big break ... take care and gt gl

chicago cal 10:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
online trading is here forever that's what some people in 1950's said about television; try buying some eur/usd here SAR 1.2139 get paid and you prob would not be so pessimistic

perrie como 10:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
have a strange feeling that in coming months the number of active traders will drop exceptionally...many reasons behind...also unprecedented market moves, but not only this...
seems also viruses are going to kill on-line trading soon..

take care

Ldn 10:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD order books show stops on long position building "just below" 1.2150 trader. If this level breaks, a print to 1.2130 will be seen in short order

sydney fg 10:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hi, sorry to bother again.
I am after a source of 5 minute price data (pref eur/usd) for backtesting. 10 or 15 min data would also be helpful.
If anyone can help, please email [email protected]
Thanks in advance.

hk ab 0.66 10:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Is it always bloody when carry trades unwind?...

hoax bursts, true bursts.

prauge viktor 10:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Iraq sh : take it easy ,wait till 1,176

Nassau QF (newb) 10:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thank you SA.
Slightly worse than expected :(

SA getFX 10:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Eurozone 56.2 vs 57.3 Jan (sources)

bloemfontein KN 10:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SA getFX

the one arm bandits on the trading desks are whirring

Ldn 10:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
These expire this week unless taken out today.
CAD 1.3600
CAD 1.3600 KO

Nassau QF (newb) 09:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have the numbers for Services PMI for Germany and E12?

hk ab 0.66 09:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
we are now marching the 250 dma on dlr/cad. 1.3598

SA getFX 09:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Are the shills tired of the casino?

CT DB 09:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Iraq SH 09:51,
with all due respect, please provide tech or fundemantal reason. willing (demanding) is not a reason!

Ldn 09:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD technicals suggest further USD gains, says JP Morgan, targeting 1.20-1.19 and 1.17.

Leva anka 09:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nk... maybe Martin likes greek donkey's stuff

Iraq SH 09:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The dollar will fall from here. It has now reached its high and we await the mighty dollar crash for America. Sell dollars and sell dollars. We will see American currency tumble to new lows. Sell dollars and sell dollars.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:45 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 09:03 GMT March 3, 2004

IM 100% Greek..IM smiling and thank God for that!
Yes we have many Donkeys in our small nice country and many here..;)

nk

ldn Ldn 09:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
It's getting hard to find good bids in EUR/USD, says trader, as pair slips to 1.2175 session low on sell order of just over EUR100M. Looks for o/n low of around 1.2150 to be retested, says if broken could trigger run to major support at 1.2115-00rts

hk ab 0.66 09:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nk, I am waiting for you at aberdeen!

hk ab 0.66 09:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
cad move is just the beginning!!

chf moves more please. I want to close you first.


eur is.... don't need to worry till we see 1.20 prints.

PAR 09:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
UK Sevices PMI could rise to above 65, an alltime record for the UK economy which is the strongest in the world.

Helsinki iw 09:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Why is that Martin? Or were you just absent from school the
day they discussed Greek history and culture?

Helsinki iw 09:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ EUR/GBP testing again the strong level at 0,6620/30.
A break lower would indicate a much larger move down tow-
ards the 0,62++ area.

Gold Coast martin 09:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
IF SALONIKO is greek he should be dealing in donkey exchange and not currency exchange....

Tallinn viies 09:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
selling more euros at 1,2179. move stop to 1,2279.
target 1,2100/10

Saihat 08:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
for demo

eur

sell at 1.2185 add 1.2154.stop 1.2205

saloniko 2004 nk 08:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Me too Athens..


nk

Athens 08:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
saloniko, whatever calls I make on this forum are not based on the luck factor.

MONACO OGA 08:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 03/03
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2195), 210 pips lower than Tuesday's opening. The pair as expected challenged critical support zone at 1,2350 where some no touch barrier was advertized, before breaking lower to 1,2200 on Europe's closing, still fuelled by speculations of future ECB rate cut on March 4th meeting. Closing in NY was around 1,2210. Overnight the pair dipped down to 1,2147 before retracing to current levels. This recovery of the US currency can be interpreted as a way to soften the oil price increase currently experienced by the US consumers. Technically the market is approaching a supportive zone (1,1900-1,2150) we believe the market although still in a bearish mode, has completed most of its retracement pattern so far. For today 1,2150 then 1,2080 should provide some support while major resistance lies at 1,2350. Our medium target is 1,2000.

Data out today:

EZ PMI services Feb 09.00 GMT
EZ PPI Jan expected 0,1% 10.00 GMT
UK official reserves Feb 09.30 GMT
UK CIPS services Feb 09.30 GMT
US ISM non manufacturing Feb expected 63,5 15.00 GMT
US FED's beige book

Gold around 391,50 , with WTI April at 36,57.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 110,20) took out 109,70 resistance, moving in correllation with EUR/USD. A psychological level at 110 was regained yesterday. Support for the day at 109,70 while resistance should appear ahead of 111,00.
EUR/JPY (currently 134,40) resting on a support zone around 134,00-50. If it cracks next big level to watch is 132,50, while resistance currently stands above 135,50.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8350) following EUR/USD closely, printed a low of 1,8300 overnight. We believe some further expectations of rate hike in UK, but maybe not against the US currency.
EURGBP (0,6640) found some support at 0,6625 but still looking to be heading lower. The carry trade factor should be weighting on the cross. Although oversold chartwise, EUR/GBP could easily visit the 0,6530 zone where support should start showing up.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

sgp sp 08:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Athens, I am still awaiting a reply to my application for your 2 weeks trial. It's been 4 tries and a couple of weeks. Please do let me know what needs to be done.....

Thanks, gl & gt
P/S : your views here encouraged me to check out your website.

lugano rob roy 08:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Closed eu$ and aud $ here at 1.22 and 0.7535. Wait better level to resell

saloniko 2004 nk 08:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Athens frome now on ..Lack is needed..

nk

Athens 08:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Re my 19:09 GMT March 2, the first short term major EUR/$ target 1.2145 has already been met and given a modest rebound. This pair could extend to 1.2250 and still be mildly O/S for the day. Medium term view unchanged (pressure down at least for some time longer). i.e. selling decent rallies is the preferred strategy. Good luck.

hk ab 0.66 08:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd longs added 1.1180.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD
Long Term
a. Buy 1.8131 tgt 1.8368 stp if show 1.8120
b. Buy 1.8142 tgt 1.8377 stp if show 1.8132
c. Buy 1.8201 tgt 1.8421 stp if show 1.8190
d. Buy 1.8273 tgt 1.8476 stp if show 1.8263
e. Buy 1.8292 tgt 1.8522 stp if show 1.8282
Middle Term
a. Buy 1.8292 tgt 1.8491 stp if show 1.8282
b. Buy 1.8273 tgt 1.8431 stp if show 1.8263
c. Buy 1.8160 tgt 1.8341 stp if show 1.8150
d. Buy 1.8092 tgt 1.8292 stp if show 1.8082
Intraday
a. Buy 1.8292 tgt 1.8446 stp if show 1.8282
b. Sell 1.8522 tgt 1.8466 stp if show 1.8532
c. Sell 1.8547 tgt 1.8487 stp if show 1.8557
d. Sell 1.8588 tgt 1.8475 stp if show 1.8598
e. Sell 1.8627 tgt 1.8546 stp if show 1.8605

EUR/USD
Long Term
a. Buy 1.1757 tgt 1.2033 stp if show 1.1745
b. Buy 1.1827 tgt 1.2087 stp if show 1.1815
c. Buy 1.1962 tgt 1.2189 stp if show 1.1950
d. Buy 1.2048 tgt 1.2253 stp if show 1.2035
e. Buy 1.2088 tgt 1.2286 stp if show 1.2075
Middle Term
a. Sell 1.2410 tgt 1.2333 stp if show 1.2420
b. Sell 1.2509 tgt 1.2409 stp if show 1.2421
Intraday
a. Sell 1.2251 tgt 1.2211 stp if show 1.2262
b. Sell 1.2307 tgt 1.2254 stp if show 1.2318
c. Sell 1.2326 tgt 1.2286 stp if show 1.2235
d. Sell 1.2382 tgt 1.2326 stp if show 1.2392

USD/CHF
Long Term
a. Sell 1.3073 tgt 1.2852 stp if show 1.3088
b. Sell 1.3147 tgt 1.2915 stp if show 1.3162
c. Sell 1.3230 tgt 1.2982 stp if show 1.3245
d. Sell 1.3327 tgt 1.3049 stp if show 1.3342
e. Sell 1.3452 tgt 1.3052 stp if show 1.3467
f. Sell 1.3689 tgt 1.3327 stp if show 1.3700
Middle Term
a. Buy 1.2711 tgt 1.2848 stp if show 1.2700
b. Buy 1.2603 tgt 1.2789 stp if show 1.2590
c. Buy 1.2529 tgt 1.2730 stp if show 1.2515
Intraday
a. Buy 1.2684 tgt 1.2775 stp if show 1.2675
b. Buy 1.2758 tgt 1.2850 stp if show 1.2745
c. Buy 1.2818 tgt 1.2915 stp if show 1.2800
d. Buy 1.2878 tgt 1.2950 stp if show 1.2865


my best regards,
raden mas

Nottingham 08:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
viies, much of PL private enterprise is German owned so while offical figures might at some point benefit from exchange rate, financial benefit will be siphoned off to Germany

London 08:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The dollar looks set to retain a strong tone at least until Thursday as investors focus their attention on charts after Tuesday's selloff of the euro.
Now that the common European currency has fallen through important technical levels and reached a three-month low, fears of a further move lower are likely to keep euro bulls and dollar bears at bay in the next few sessions.
Charts suggest the euro is headed towards the $1.19 area. Support comes at $1.2150, according to ABN Amro analysts
AP

Tallinn viies 08:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
agree with you about promises but my idea is that one country (Poland compared Germany) cant get such advantage over other devalue currency. Polish zloty is 50% weaker ag Euro with less than 3 years.

basically Polish guys need to work 2 times less compared to germans just to keep same situation what was 2 years ago. this cant stay for long....

SA getFX 08:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Pivots:
3-Mar-04
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.2672 1.8969 R5
1.2571 1.8836 R4
1.2483 1.8726 R3
1.2394 1.8615 R2
1.2344 1.8549 R1
1.2293 1.8482 P
1.2205 1.8372 S1
1.2116 1.8261 S2
1.2066 1.8195 S3
1.2015 1.8128 S4
1.1838 1.7907 S5

Hourly MACD shows divergence. Watch shorts. General trend id down, though. Operators Pump & Dump? GT!

Nottingham 08:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:54 GMT

PL government makes promises and fails to deliver so much so that market now fails to react on talk of action (reduction in spending 4 example) and waits for confirmation...talk of Miller resignation but in truth probably would be good thing in long run...however the country has poor foundations to work from with corruption rife so foreign investment difficult to cement as law seems to change day by day to suit those in charge...was thinking of by property over there since last summer...glad I didn't as I would has lost 20% through forex since then...EUR situation not quite as bad but still significant...was considering talking a short position at 5.00 but until fundamentals change I don't know if that level stands up long term...gl gt

KL KL 08:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Someone help me...all indicators shows dollar strength for EUR, GBP...etc...you know those we like to short...how come the value powering up or is this the retracement / correction we are all waiting to sell!! Eur 1.22 GBP - 1.835 now. I am very sure if I short now it will bite me in the pants later..probably give me a few pips joy for 10 minutes and then start panicking to cover!!

melbourne farmacia 08:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
So far Aussie hourly channel base at 0.7470 has provided a nice bounce, looking for 0.7550 before down again imo. GT

prauge viktor 08:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Tallin its a good idea..

Tallinn viies 07:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
guys, do you have view on EURPLN 1Y outlook.
idea is to sell the euro ag pln because it is so much overextended and undervalued. is it good idea?

Helsinki iw 07:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
In how many dealing operations do you guys think that the
theme in the morning meeting is " lets sell a bounce" today?

Nottingham 07:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Euro...oversold at 1.2157...will have natural tendency to drift towards 1.2230...if not met with resistance there then opens up way for more significant correction to 1.2252/1.2280/1.2320/1.2350...gl gt

London 07:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Bankers have a primary role to protect the value of their currency," while adding, "we must ask ourselves, are rates too low." Interest rate futures took Greenspan's remarks as a hint there's a slight chance rates will rise sooner rather than later
AP.

think this is what is spooking the market

Helsinki iw 07:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
European corps bought at 1,2700. Seriously, market is o/s
but it may take some time before a correction sets in, likely
a slow day today.

Barcelona JP 07:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 07:05 GMT March 3, 2004

Don't like what I see.

KL KL 07:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
If EUR leave rates unchange ...should it behave like AUD technically or has it been factored in and we get a small bounce and then continue the down trend?? Today I feel can be a difficult day as many buyers are coming in at these levels. When everyone talking dollar strength I think time to think the reverse....jobs, unemployment, oil, gold....gee too many things to think ..I think following trend is best!!!

Tallinn viies 07:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
good morning guys...

technically selling near 1,2210-20 area offers great opportunities to short but kowing that European corporates havnt seen such levels for the buying euros more than Quarter there may be lot of euro buying after London open

Nairobi Tn 07:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi Forum!

Long EUR/USD and cable, though a cautiously.

Any views on next level for Londoners?

NAIROBI bootsy 06:54

Hi Mate! Nice to see someone from around!

Barcelona JP 07:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 07:05 GMT March 3, 2004
EUR/USD way oversold. European market opening strong.
Look for correction to 1.2240/300+ before shorting again.


Agree with you.

Wellington am 07:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD way oversold. European market opening strong.
Look for correction to 1.2240/300+ before shorting again.

NAIROBI bootsy 06:54 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
looking to short EUR at 2.2200 levels on retracement but still believe Europeans will take further south. Hold on to your helmets we going in.

tokyo nyan 06:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
th- thank you very much:-) very interesting stuff!

Ldn Hat 06:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sorry that should have read Shorted more GBP/USD at 1.8330 stop 1.8450 for this trade and target 1.8280 IMHO thanks

Ldn Hat 06:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more GBP/USD at 1.8330 stop 1.8450 for this trade and tarfet 1.8380 IMHO thanks

London 06:17 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
A double bottom formed by the New York Board of Trade's U.S. Dollar Index last night confirms the market is medium-term bullish and implies the U.S. dollar will stay firm against a broad range of currencies in coming weeks.
By rising above 88.07 , the index (at 89.15 around midday in Asia) triggered a double bottom formed by the January and February troughs
reuters.

Ltn th 06:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
NYAN// ABARE's website and some of their modelling tools and here.
Their D-wavelet package could make fx trading obsolete as we know it.

CT DB 06:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
mornin forum,
bought euro at 1.2150 stop @ 1.2050. Even though euro has broken out of larger consolidation range, i feel that as long as 1.1950 holds there is good opportunity to buy "cheap" euros for highs later this month.

break below 1.1900/850 would warn of a corrction to 1.1300.

gl & gt 4 2day!

Gold Coast martin 06:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Speculators back driving aud up a little but it will be short lived....they have more dolars than sense.....

Tokyo WALL 05:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
For the USD bear, JPY must be the their best shelter in this USD storm so far.
FWIW, US data on Friday may not be that rosy, but bad US data may only provide last route to the exit for the USD bear who bought EUR above 1.2000.

Ldn 05:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex with the Euro/Aud you see such large move , so the Aud will be the loser out of this pair.

shanghai bc 05:47 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   

OMIL 04:56--Good afternoon..There may be still some slow but good-sized ones trying to get out of their predicament in London and NY..

QINDEX -- Good afternoon..Thanks for great forecasts..

Melbourne Qindex 05:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : We can see 378.4 very soon!

Melbourne Qindex 05:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/AUD : It is going to be a 300 - 500 pips move.

tokyo nyan 05:39 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
th - thank you very much!

London 05:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Australian dollar, which dropped sharply against the U.S. dollar Wednesday. Renewed strength in the U.S. currency and disappointment over the central bank's interest rate pause pushed the local currency into a freefall. In late Asian trading Wednesday, the Australian dollar was trading around US$0.7500, down from US$0.7737 late Tuesday. Dow.

Melbourne Qindex 05:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
London London 04:29 GMT - AUD/USD : Check the target of my equation.

melbourne farmacia 05:35 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
0.7470 ish comes in as hourly channel base fwiw

Ldn 05:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 05:29 was for Dallas

Melbourne Qindex 05:32 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 05:18 GMT - Good afternoon! AUD/USD : I like to see your range this week.

Ldn 05:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP yes thats cos they new something always get censored price when they know

Ldn 05:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Feel also come a long way already and should get some kind of bounce but isnt, watching the Euro if it craps out so will the Aussie and Kiwi along with gold problem is so many longs out there and they are all trying to squeeze out one door so could see quite a fall , thought the GDP would have supported more . cheers

Dallas GEP 05:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
BTW I tried to get Aussie short THREE times during that last run down but I got requoted BELOW market all three times.

Melbourne Qindex 05:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : The 44-day cycles are now in action :-

Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 05:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Ldn, funny you should mention that. On a short term basis .7480 is probably bottom but it isn't bouncing up very hard so it's possible we see tight range trading (too tight) for a time but the AUSSIE is full or surprises!!! So basically now I am flat on Aussie.

Melbourne Qindex 05:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:55 GMT March 3, 2004
EUR/AUD : 22-Day Cycle Reference


... 1.5906* // 1.5993 - 1.6080* - 1.6168 - 1.6255* - 1.6343 // 1.6430* ...

Ldn 05:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP are you flogging the Aud, feel better if I know your selling ?

Florida PC 05:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Thanks, I'll try that... it feels good to be trading profitably for the first time...

Ldn 05:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc Its just I dont want to be the rabbit in the Headlight and get run over (squashed) it could continue ito Euro and NY sessions .cheers

Ltn th 05:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Nyan/ ABARE=Australian Bureau of agricultural and resource economics. Not sure what govt deparment it comes under but it often has some surprising insights to sensitive information well ahead of time.

Dallas GEP 05:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
USd/CAD has resistance @ 1.3490. If SOMEONE would kindly post the INSIDE scoop on WTH this USD/CAD is not HIGHER we all would appreciate it. We will NEVER tell if you don't (you know who you are!!!)

Ldn 05:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sydney traders talk of massive unwinding of carry trades from short-, medium term players after RBA left rates on hold, defying hopes of analysts from some big offshore players; next support not until 0.7450, they say

shanghai bc 05:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   

LDN -- Good morning..I guess ,given the liquidity issue,Eur/Usd will decide where all other non-Dollars find a floor in this Dollar bounce in terms of timing while different pairs move with different magnitude..For long-term folks Aud/Usd .7300 -.7000 region may be on their rada in this round..

Dallas GEP 05:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
PC, go back to achives and search for Martin in user name. That will be all you need to know, He has it NAILED.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP it is still not your week to gang up on you yet but we will get to it don’t worry lol.

Dallas GEP 05:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
YES 1.2146 DID trade on one platform but on another it appears that 1.2149 was low. I caught some flak earlier regarding the FIRST platform rate because it was lower apprarently than almost all other platforms/

BTW You will NOT win an argument over a fill based on what someone else's feed is if you are in dispute. They will say that other feeds are irrelevant to what is tradeable using THEIR feed on THEIR platform.

bkk cad 05:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Aud: small support .7440

bkk cad 05:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Euro low 1.2145

Florida PC 05:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Are there any supports for AUD/USD on the way down or is it just a simple plummet to ~0.7350?

tokyo nyan 05:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hi - th 04:59 GMT

sorry, what/who is ABARE?

Dallas GEP 05:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, if anyone feels the need to bust someone's chops, I am you man!!! Leave everyone else alone !!!!

nyc sa 05:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
thnx GEP , did euro 1.2126 trade ? do u have a way of finding out what was the low traded so far ?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:07 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SA that is around the low for the day for eur/usd.

Dallas GEP 05:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry 1.2146!!!!

Dallas GEP 05:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I show a 1.2126 LOW

nyc sa 05:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
could someone please tell me if euro has in fact trade at 1.2148 as forex-markets shows a low of 1.2148 .Does everybody has the same low ? thnx .

FW CS 04:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
To satisfy a medium term correction Euro probably needs to see 1.19-1.20 area. The June - Sept correction was 3 months and 10 figures maybe we will see a similar type correction here. Already almost 8 figures off the high. 20 week Bollinger midpoint supported till this week. Now around 1.2235 so if it closes the week below this point then we can see the lower weekly Bollinger band in this correction phase currently way down around 1.1450

Ltn th 04:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ABARE who usually have the inside info in such matters are bluntly stating that AUD will average 73 for next year???

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for sharing with us BC if I translate the message right for eur/usd the 1.2140-60 area will not be penetrated until there is a well needed correction.

Dallas GEP 04:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Martin for Aussie insights!!!!

Ldn 04:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc where would you see the Aud a buy on this fall, its rather tricky. Thankyou/
also Martin thanks for the earlier warnings well noted , even though you got a few smart arse comments about it from some freeks on here cheers

Gold Coast martin 04:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The aud as i said will find a floor at 7350...but there seems to be a reluctance by the japs at the moment to do more uridashi deals with australia...so as the dollar shortens i think i they will push it back to .70...and if there is a change in fundamentals in the next 6 months..e.g FED interest hike....then god help the aud...it was the best performing commodity currency in the world and it will be the worst performing one in 2005 with a change in usd fundamentals...

shanghai bc 04:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   

Many Dollar shorts are forced to liquidate in thin Asian market this morning exagerating moves..There may be some more forced fire-sales in London and NY session..Dollar is safely in advancing mode at present..But for short-term,anything above Usd/Chf 1.3050 is overstretched region for a correction of some 200 pips before Dollar moves up firmly into 1.30-1.35 region..Fwiw..

Quebec YQB 04:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Any idea on EUR/GBP cross? looks like a good buy if we see .6615 tonite.

hong kong nt 04:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab -- cover hang seng short at 13330, put option let the profit run...

Gold Coast martin 04:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS...your coolness under pressure to execute short entry and exits is appreciated....it is rare.....

Dallas GEP 04:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Martin, where would you think they would put their BIDS back in (what level???)

Dallas GEP 04:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Martin, We SINCERELY appreciate your postings!!!

hk ab 0.66 04:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I think some flushing is needed, otherwise, mkt always forgot some golden lesson.

12 Mar was a day to remember, maybe the 2nd one is 4th Mar.

Gold Coast martin 04:43 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I hate seeing normal hard working traders getting stitched in a manipulated aud market....thats why i have been emphasising the uridashi deals in this forum since 8 days ago...

London 04:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
definitly freefall Kiwi with it also and CAD
hk ab 7443 is a bad level is that what your seeing

Gold Coast martin 04:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
LONDON....they pulled them because they knew a drop was coming...

London 04:37 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 04:34 GMT March 3, 2004
uridashi deals that were in the pipeline Were do you mean they have pulled them due to the drop ??

hk ab 0.66 04:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
syd, what r u thinking at the moment?

hk ab 0.66 04:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
a horrible news would be a clean break of aud daily sma 100.

Gold Coast martin 04:34 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
LONDON....this fall is mainly due to declining uridashi deals that were in the pipeline......aud will find a floor at 7350 in the long term

London London 04:29 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:20 what is the maximum it can fall on this drop, because it feels like its in freefall at the moment ?sorry the AUD

Gold Coast martin 04:27 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
if the grannies in hk and jap dont trade with a gamble mentality they will become richer...

hk ab 0.66 04:23 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// Strategic long euraud 1.6 line works again.

04:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
大家好!
我新來的!

Gold Coast martin 04:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD down to 7520 5ange as posted before....will fall further to 7480...time span:i hour into new york session, g/l g/t

hk ab 0.66 04:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, the grannies in hk and jap are v. poor....

Melbourne Qindex 04:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 04:18 GMT - AUD/USD : Anything can happen with this pair today!

Melbourne Qindex 04:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:17 GMT March 3, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels

... ..................

The odds are good that the market will test the supporting strength of the lower barrier if 1.2150 fails to hold.


Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab 0.66 04:18 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Qindex, anything u like under .75?

Chicago YM 04:14 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
moving again

Ldn 04:11 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
The RBA kept rates on hold and the announcement came around the time the USD was surging across the board. The combination resulted in the AUD/USD getting smacked from 0.7640 to 0.7570 with stops getting triggered under
0.7580. The selling included CTAs and leveraged funds that have started to liquidate long-term long positions. If selling from these sources continue it will bode poorly for the AUD/USD. The AUD/USD mustered a brief rally to
0.7600/10 after the strong Q4 GDP and a pause in
USD buying elsewhere. The rally proved short-lived and the AUD/USD plunged to 0.7550/55 and looked poised to take out stops below 0.7550 and possibly take out larger stops below 0.7530. There is talk that a break below 0.7530 would result
in acceleration of long-term long liquidation. Asian bids ahead of 0.7550, possibly option related, halted the slide, but the AUD/USD remains vulnerable A break of 0.7530 would target a deeper move towards the key 100-day moving
average around 0.7450. ifr

ICT ML 04:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP, if I'm not in in time, I'm looking to sell cable again from between 1.8400-50 area in early europe maybe....tgt 1.8275 then who lnows. 1.7800 area next major level.....BUT I'm waiting for it to turn down before I short it..

GL guys

Chicago YM 04:02 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
might be time to get some rest

Chicago YM 04:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
slowing down

Melbourne Qindex 03:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 22:35 GMT March 2, 2004
AUD/USD : Heading towards 0.7546 - 0.7556.

Melbourne Qindex 03:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/AUD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

wil 03:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
any ideas on where eurusd will settle down?

sgp sp 03:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Mstr Q, yes, I am learning daily from everyone's success and failures. Whatever guidance I derived from your numbers and others experts goes towards improving my personal style of trading.

The trick is ensure mistakes are not costly and successes are profitable. Quite a balancing act.

Van jv 03:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe/////your upper bands may be useful and possibly exceeded to 1.24+if ECB will not cut rates....

Dallas GEP 03:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OK ML!!!

Dallas GEP 03:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OK ML!!!

Melbourne Qindex 03:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 02:36 GMT - We can only provide trading reference and traders have to design their trading strategy. I guess you have familiar our work and know our limitation through the previous 2 week trial.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:41 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
i am referring to EUR/USD.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:40 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
In addition to the 1.2723 1.2499 1.2276 points there is 1.2056 and 1.1837

principle is the same in calculating the pivots

12276-12056=220/2 so n=110

12276-110 = 12166 (midpoint right now it's support playing resistance level and vice versa)

12166-110=12056

also it's possible that the currency may stay move anywhere within the range 12166+- n

sgp sp 03:31 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia, thanks.

Caribbean! Rafe... 03:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2233 1.2247 1.2265 1.2280 1.2294 1.2312 1.2341
LOWER BANDS 1.2204 1.2190 1.2172 1.2157 1.2143 1.2125 1.2096

LAX-LGB SNP 03:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
farmacia - thankx for those levels man ... i'm feeling too lazy to run my own analyses ...

l8erz

ICT ML 03:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GEP....closed all out, getting some sleep for Ldn...see ya all later

melbourne farmacia 03:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
And my Gbp & Euro trading zones now are 1.2340 - 1.1971 & 1.8465 - 1.8102 - 1.7809.

hong kong nt 03:19 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab -- 1.300 chf, 1.215 eur are not bad levels to take partial profit...

LAX-LGB SNP 03:15 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Montreal Dakard Cain 03:04 GMT March 3, 2004
no probz ... your setting up an entry with stop above/below and liquidation limit according to gen dk seems right but i suggest you practice all these entry/exit/stop-loss moves on a demo account ... looking up your Deal Book help manual will make it easier

melbourne farmacia 03:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab -maybe exporters buying thinking aud's good valve, they should wait for 0.73-74 imo. Anyway we're moving into the 0.7578 - 0.7349 range. gt

Dallas GEP 03:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. Seems we are still BUYING Aussie????

Ldn 03:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
While most analysts remain medium-term optimistic on AUD bounce vs USD and other majors on favorable interest rate gap, expectations RBA will hike next month, technicals looking very bearish. AUD/USD now down 1.2% since RBA decision, near support not until 0.7450. Fibonacci support (38.2% retracement of rally to 0.8005 from 0.6340 low September) comes in at 0.7670. Of some concern, however, is trigger yesterday of what could be complex bearish head & shoulders top. Neckline joins Jan. 30, Feb. 27 lows, was broken with fall under 0.7683. Target is 0.7306, reuters

hong kong nt 03:09 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab -- cover all long dlr poss. good trades...

hk ab 0.66 03:06 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I really like this kind of tug and pull mkt, apparently, many are still buying aud, nzd, eur......

I am waiting for my nzd put from .70 and 7050 16th and 17th...

Montreal Dakard Cain 03:04 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Thx LAX.

I got the terms. But how could I set it up with my trading portal. Say, should I set the entry position with protection on S/R or SAR? and profit position on Liquidate? I am using Deal Book, really confused on that part.

Thx

hk ab 0.66 03:00 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
all these moves brought should be the credits of bc.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Montreal Dakard Cain 02:51 GMT March 3, 2004
S/R is support/resistance
SAR is stop and reverse
Liquidate is close position

LAX-LGB SNP 02:57 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ask [email protected] coz its against rules to give it out here

hk ab 0.66 02:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
chf dreaming target 1.3333?

Chicago YM 02:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
How do i get your email?

LAX-LGB SNP 02:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sure YM

Gen dk 02:53 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Montreal Dakard Cain 02:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Evening,

I just subscribed GenDk signal and could not figure out how it works. Anybody here kindly enough to explain it a bit with an example, especially on the S/R and LIquidate?

Thanks in advance

Dakard

Chicago YM 02:44 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
SNP can I email you? I have a question.

LAX-LGB SNP 02:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
since McDee has phased out supersize drinks and fries - i've closed all 6 trades held since last week - netted 1500 bps after rollover which is not really that much considering its only 250 bps per cross and dividing that by 6 days brings it lower to 40 per day of which uncle Sam takes 1/2 away so i guess i made about 20 bps per day of which the client takes away half so eventually i pulled only 10 bps for all my trouble ;-) haha
will look to re-enter on upticks or short-squeezes over the next 48 hours

Ldn 02:42 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Technically break below 7540 would be very bearish for the aud cause overshoot to the downside

hk ab 0.66 02:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, it just lags behind.

cad is v. sensitive towards sentiment unlike others, so, a cut is a cut, a hike is a hike.

sgp sp 02:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab, thanks.....adjusted my t/p for nzd/usd shorts...will close half at 0.6690 and keep the other half open. And I will keep an eye on aud/nzd longs......no possies yet.

Master Q, can I presume that I can re-register free 2 weeks trial again? Please say OK, please, please, please. :)

Brazil,Sal JH 02:33 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi guys..
I've trading for 18 hours now and must get some rest

I'm short eur/dir 1.2205 any ideas on where my stop and
limit should be???? :-)
TIA

HangZhou 02:30 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
1.8378
buy gbp/usd
stop 1.8338

melbourne farmacia 02:25 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab - your usd/cad looks good. GT

Val Florida 02:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Florida PC
7550 is gone - history, at least I hope so . If this is the case tonight we will see 7450 and if it done 7348 and finally 70 after which goes 68.

Melbourne Qindex 02:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/AUD : Heading Towards 1.6234.

hk ab 0.66 02:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
believe it or not, sp, another 300 pips is coming on nzd from the .6730 gate.

Melbourne Qindex 02:21 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Florida PC 02:16 GMT - It will!

Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 02:12 GMT - We need your support for our research.

Florida PC 02:16 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
How low do you think AUD/USD is going here? Any lower than 0.7550?

Val Florida 02:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 02:08 GMT March 3, 2004
not aud long but aud/nzd long

I wouldn' buy(go long) in Aud at any pair, aud is done for a couple of weeks if not nore.

sgp sp 02:12 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Master Q, I can't register with you for free again becos I did that once when I entered this arena. Would do that once my account is flush enough for me.

Sad to say, then I did not fully understand how to apply your numbers to trading until you posted an explanation recently.

No worries, your generous daily postings in GV is good enough for me. And you r GOOD. Am holding eur/jpy shorts based on your numbers (after understanding how your system works)

A big THANK YOU 4 your time and generosity.



London London 02:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Break Of 100-Day MA Seen As Significant ifr

hk ab 0.66 02:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
not aud long but aud/nzd long.

hk ab 0.66 02:08 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd longs? you mean?

Val Florida 02:05 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
HK ab please be cosious with ur aud longs. Have a look at eur/aud chart if it breaks 1.61 and it will aud is doommed
GT old friend

hk ab 0.66 02:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
nt// this nzd short worth a nice aberdeen dinner:) next to your flat in S.H.

Melbourne Qindex 02:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 01:59 GMT - The odds are good. See details in my page.

sgp sp 01:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Q Shi Fu, any chances aud/usd overshoot 0.7551? Got some aud/usd shorts to close and looking for a nice level to do so. Greed and Fear interfering with my decision......

Thanks, gl & gt 2 u

hk ab 0.66 01:58 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sp//everything happens on me is usually fast.
I am fully ok now indeed.

So, turning good fast and turning bad fast :)

Now for all of us to watch is this cad now.

at the moment, price is supported across the cross due to carry.

We will know the truth of USD recovery from this pair.

price closed above 200 dma LAST night!

Melbourne Qindex 01:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : 22-day cycle

Set A : 0.7551 - 0.7575 - 0.7598*

Set B : 0.7551 - 0.7582* - 0.7613

Quebec YQB 01:55 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Anyone going to go long EUR/GBP?

Val Florida 01:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AB RBA unchanged, So sell more aussie

Singapore Sfx 01:52 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab - unchanged

sgp sp 01:50 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
ab, I would never disturb your much needed rest with a Q.....the previous post contained my Q.....what is a good number to exit my nzd/usd shorts.

Thanks.

hk ab 0.66 01:49 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sp// next plunge is coming soon.

btw, what's the rba decision?

hk ab 0.66 01:48 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sp// please post the Q again surely I ahve missed it while I am sleeping....

for me next interested game is positional eur/chf short and aud'nzd longs.

entered already at 1.12, 1.1180, 1.1175 aud/nzd.

sgp sp 01:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Good morning ab, lots were happenning while u r sleeping. Hope u r well rested cos I got a Q for u.

Have a nzd/usd shorts averaging 0.6895 and looking for a level to exit. At the moment it is placed at 0.6690, too unrealistic? Any suggestions please.....:)

Thanks, gl & gt

Melbourne Qindex 01:38 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


›öŹBŽs‰˘Śł‹ć James 01:28 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
haha!!EURO is 1.22!!

Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:03 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 00:59 GMT March 3, 2004
At the moment I am not following her majesty but there are much better qualified people in the forum that can answer that for you.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:01 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Sorry for my comments they might be a bit confusing the second retracement number are for the dollar correction from the September move. Not the retracement numbers for the bounce that the eur/usd must have to penetrate the 1.2155-60 area.

KL KL 00:59 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
OMIL....What are your views on cables??

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
FWIW the 1.2190 for the eur/usd did not hold which tells me this bear market is definitely strong at this time. Next in line roughly is 1.2155-60 and 1.1970-75 area but I still think this move does not have enough momentum to take it today. I unloaded some of the position at 1.2190 to lock in profits and will reload on any rally. Retracement numbers have changed to 1.2300-10, 1.2350-55 and 1.2395-1.2400. Second sets of rough retracement numbers are 1.2105-10, 1.1850-55 and 1.1595-1.1600. Good resistance is at 1.2400-20 area for now IMHO. GL GT

Melbourne Qindex 00:56 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 00:51 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
pip pirates probably planning to short the euro at 1,2210/20 area with stops at 1,2270/80...

Pecs Andras 00:46 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Australian Q4 GDP Rose 1.4 (Median Consensus 1.1%)]

Ldn 00:36 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD's drop last night was short- and medium-term bearish because it broke uptrend line from September as well as major support at 1.2333, where mid-January low coincided with 38.2% retracement of rise from early November; this triggered double top (January and February peaks) targeting 1.1766 in coming weeks. 10-week oscillators confirm bearishness; MACD just staged first negative crossover since July. Next significant supports are 50% retracement at 1.2153, then 1.2102 (38.2% retracement of rise from September). Strong underlying resistance at 1.2333-51 (January troughs) would be good place to sell any rally
reuters

Melbourne Qindex 00:26 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Almaty G7 00:22 GMT - I am just concentrating myself on EUR/USD and AUD/USD today. GBP/USD : the lower barrier of my weekly cycle would offer a good resistant level.

nyc jk 00:24 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
viies - nice sar, gd luck

Almaty G7 00:22 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
Hi to All. Mr Qindex, where is your system resistance area for GBP? TIA

Tallinn viies 00:20 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
sf mike 00:10 - short from 1,2210.

sf mike 00:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
I meant good short.

sf mike 00:10 GMT March 3, 2004 Reply   
viies/ go short toady following your rules.

 




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