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Forex Forum Archive for 03/05/2004

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Gold Coast martin 23:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
still holding aussie shorts from day before.....lost battle with aussie but will win war.....patience is a virtue....congratulations to all who participate in this wonderful industry....g/l g/t

dc fxq 22:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Any spikes that occur on a given platform at 18:00 GMT (15:00 ET) could because the Fed wire has officially closed and settlements are being done interbank. Yes there is aftermarket trading and wires can be following the "close" but technically those trades leave a trader vulnerqable if they should "fail". The platform I use stays open on weekends but spreads widen from 2-3 pips on majors to a minimum of 10.


I would say that I don't see any spikes on my platform so you may well have a legitimate beef with you company.

Pgh wjs 22:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 22:06 GMT

Thanks, I know this yen has been sitting here on my charts like paint drying on the wall so I was a little surprised when the position disappeared from my platform.. LOL

Pecs Andras 22:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Pgh wjs 21:55 GMT March 5, 2004
I do not see any spike like that on the yen chart.
The only spike I see is a big one at 18:00 GMT on cable: low 8418 high 8500

Pgh wjs 21:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I have had a slight problem with my platform who is telling me my stop on yen possie was hit at 111.65 at 20:36... anyone, anywhere here show any kind of blip like that? They agreed to credit position back and reimburse my loss on it but I am wondering where they would have gotten such an outlandish feed.

TIA

Gen dk 21:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wien GD 21:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sidney alimin: (;)))))>>>>

Sydney alimin 21:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
volatility at its best, g7 meeting participants must be shaking their heads and tearing their hair off

Barcelona JP 21:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
OK.

Have a nice WE.

Bye from Catalonia.

Barcelona JP 21:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 20:47 GMT March 5, 2004

I always say "risky", "take care", "trail", "I go", "I don't go", "S/L", "stops" and so on.....

CT, we are adults. We ought to know that this game is a very dangerous one. We ought to go demoing first and then with a mini. First, 10k, then 20k and so on.

We ought to know that we should learn before trading.

When one of us say buy or sell, I look at may charts, look at my TA weaponry and, if what they say fits my system or way of trading, I go.

Dallas GEP 21:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
My platform is closed now but I left nothing open over the weekend. Hope you all have a good weekend. GL GT

Dallas GEP 21:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
DB, If I EVER thought a newbie may be harmed by something I posted, I would quit posting on GV, pure and simple. If your perception is I have done that in some way on even an inconsistent basis, I would like your view on that.

prauge viktor 21:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP : pleas tell ur friend that most of the traders had been lost there account once in a lief ,he must forget it about it I know its easy to say hard to do,but the importent thing is to keeping survive and to hope that the it should be sunshine after rain,i know how is his feeling is G/L friend

Barcelona JP 21:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Just a post:

I've had a good day and a very good week.

What have I done today?

No possie before the data.

3' before, I placed entry limits sell and buy in eur/usd, gbp/usd, usd/chf and usd/cad. 30 pips below and above the rate with a s/l of 20.

Well, you can imagine what I got.

You do not need to do this in all the majors as I did. Just one, if you wish.

ICT ML 21:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Have a good WE everyone...have some weekly charts to lok over to see where we are in regards to my Sunday night big picture post.....going to be interesting for sure.......

CT DB 20:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:57,
Noted. Have a good weekend.
PS: live to fight another day.

Dallas GEP 20:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
DB, there is no doubt that was poor account management on my friends part. He knows it and he paid for his mistake, This failure though is NOT a personal one it is a professional one. I guess that was my point really.

NYC NYC 20:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Even very experienced traders went into the employment report without a position to guard against what happened today. This should be lesson for all to avoid rolling the dice into unforeseen events unless you have very deep pockets.

indonesia bahari2003 20:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
have a nice weekend everybody......

CT DB 20:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:25
With all due respect to you GEP and condolences to your friend, the "reality" of what happened today is not because he failed and all of us fail or succeed in some strange roll of the dice.

We reap what we sow, and poor account management leads to margin calls.

What I think takes place on this forum at times can be damaging if perceived "seniors" make calls with no regard for "newbies" who may be following based on percieved wisdom of the poster.

Every trade is made with a risk attached to it. A greater awareness to this fact is needed and honesty required with regards to the ease of making money. I spoke to a representative of a FX Broker who said that over 80% of clients having losing accounts. I wonder why!

GL & GT

vancouver jpb 20:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP.....

I am a full time day trader, most stock options. As of 3 weeks ago I started the forex as a means to branch out my trading style.

As to your last post. On the crash on Tuesday I was long at the top. Luck for me I quickly hedged my possie, but at one point I was a breath away from a margin call. Which would have hurt REALLY BAD!

The market rebounded and I was able to recoup my most of my loss.

At that point, I decided to hold on to yippie quickie possies.

It worked out for me. The rest of the week I developed some good gains.

As for today, I let the data do its business and stayed out of market until it either crashed or peaked. We all know it peaked.

After that I just played quick gaps. Losses here and there, but in the end a total gain of 190 pips to the good.

For me, this week..... Ahhhhh! I got kicked down hard. But I picked myself up, dusted myself off and started all over again.

As traders we can never be always right, other wise we'd have a real spike in the billionaires list.

All we can ever do is keep fighting!

Dallas GEP 20:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ML, Check your mail in a couple of hours.

indonesia bahari2003 20:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
indonesia new trader, it takes lot cost to know fx better. its just the beginning. great ur here. wellcome to the real world friend.
ppl said cut the lose ten point let profit run..... but not that easy..

prauge viktor 20:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: ur a very wise man and Im so glad to read ur post,Im learning from it everyday,do u remeber the 5th of septempr it was like today all the world thought that the usd is going to 1,05 only u and oil man who said that if will not broke the 1,0767 level it will go to the 1,2 have a nice weekend and G/L

ICT ML 20:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP...tell your friend there isn't a GBP trader still around that I've known that has not been or nearly been wiped out by her majesty at least once in their life....myself included.....especially on IMM futures ;-(

bristol wsp 20:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
first time here but info well recieved hope all a good and money filled weekend

bristol wsp 20:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
first time here but info well recieved hope all a good and money filled weekend

Chicago YM 20:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok thanks Andras.

Barcelona JP 20:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Here comes the sun again

UK ELC 20:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP...You are Brilliant!!

vancouver jpb 20:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well, I'm outta here,

It's been an up down week, but what a strong finish.

Good luck to all that are still in market.

See ya'll on Monday.

Pecs Andras 20:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 20:23 GMT March 5, 2004
OK, I see. Then you are in good shape. Just protect your positions wisely.

Dallas GEP 20:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Viktorm I have had computer problems but i have managed to pip raid the last couple of hours with VERY VERY fast possies. Got only +37 pips so far but they have been large possies. Haven't been posting them because they have been happening too fast,

A dose of reality happened today when a VERY good friend of mine called to say he had margined out his account on some pound shorts he had just prior to the data release (you guys don't know him BTW) . He was basically distraught and the reason I mention this is currrency trading is NOT a way of life or really even that important in the overall scheme of things. You can ALWAYS make money IMO given the right set of circumstances. Some of us DO this for a living such as myself and others as an investment vehicle. You will have failures......I guarantee it. The failures are learning vehilcles. The most successful people have also had the most failures along the way. Don't let the effect of a current failure close your heart and your mind to the new opportunities that stare us in the face on a day to day basis. We ALL have the ability to be successful in my view. Now get out there and DO it DAMMITTT!!!

KL KL 20:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Power restored [email protected]^%$*%^%*&#@ looking to re-enter...is gbp good to enter at 1.84, aussie at .755, eur at 1.235, yen at 111.8...let me know other better options...that power failure cause me some time to do analysis...

Chicago YM 20:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras 20:19 GMT March 5, 2004

I don't have a loss on the euro/usd, that is a short from 1.2416. long on usd/yen

prauge viktor 20:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM:I will stay with open pos. and my target still 114 but when it will be I dont now but on this level I think there is a lot who want to inter this game G/L

Pecs Andras 20:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 20:15 GMT March 5, 2004
I would not be worried about your Yen position. Just place your stop below 111,50 and you should be safe and risking very little.
Your EUR position however is not promising I think. You should use a wide stop to protect it, end even then it may be eaten up.I would close it out soon, accepting the loss
But it must be your decision

Chicago YM 20:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
i entered eur/usd at 1.2416 and usd/yen at 111.63

Pecs Andras 20:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 20:05 GMT March 5, 2004
Depends on your entry levels. I think BOJ will continue the job. They are very powerful and the month end is still far away.

cork glenn 20:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK - Sorry to hear about yr losses mate...hope you can get back into it soon and if I can help, maybe discuss strategy etc - let me know. [email protected]

ICT ML 20:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
an observation...here we are again at the crossroads...1.2355 area on euro. Funny how this level keeps coming in and out of play the last few months. I think what happens on this level decides next weeks euro trades. If the bulls are back in force, this level should stay supported...if not, well that is fine too, as I am positioned for that, since the BOJ warriors are bold now, I see this level probably giving out.

Nottingham 20:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 20:05 GMT

Monday low for pair may be between 111.50-112, US financial/terrorist catastrophe aside...BoJ will continue its business until March 18th after which it will be passive rather than aggressive i.e. support market rather than force new highs...my own esitmates are for a high of 115/116 by end March, although we may see this slightly before the end of the month...a move through 112.50 will trigger stops and liquidation of defenisve shorts which all in all may be enough to trigger break of 112.73..once taken, a sharp gap filling rally is expected...probably a bit of consolidation would then occur before a final move to 115/116 to test neckline of head and shoulder formation...following this/end of month we begin to head lower and look for new low eventually..imo...gl gt

Chicago YM 20:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What do you suggest i do with my usd/yen and eur/usd positions before close today. Should i close them or leave them open over the weekend hoping for the boj to continue their wonderful work on sunday night?

vancouver jpb 20:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
martha stewart - guilty all counts!

prauge viktor 20:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas Gep: its nice to be here once again, what u say about this wonderful move from the BOJ,I hope u made some profit from it..

indonesia new trader 19:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 19:53 GMT March 5, 2004
thanx mate for the advice .i just have experience in trading about 2 monts starting 2004 jan
and i already lost 50 % of my margin
but aniwei i like the trading and i want to learn to make me smarter in fx .
but aniwei i must thx u to tell me how to do.

GER ad 19:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
indonesia new trader ,
C. Irish right, but take the offer, nobody know how USD/JPY will open Sunday night (the risk is too high long USD/JPY at 112.07 with no S/L neee...)

Barcelona JP 19:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
It's not mine:

Traders are looking at the "Golden Cross" adding to further gains in the
USD/JPY. A "Golden Cross" is a positive cross-over of any two moving averages.
Some watch the 21-ay/55-day moving average which crossed on Monday. Others eye
the 10-day v. 40 day. Today, the 21-day v. 90-day moving average crossed over
bullishly, adding to momentum for the current USD/JPY rally. The pair last
crossed lower in September last year with a bearish turn called a "Dead Cross."
The cross is not watched as closely as it has been in past years, but could add
momentum to the BOJ"S efforts to drive USD/JPY higher. USD/JPY trades at
112.02/07 currently, having stalled near the 200 day moving average at 112.25,
and with EUR/JPY retreating from a test of 139.00.

Dallas GEP 19:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well friends been pip raiding the last three hours so I haven't had time to post. Getting back some of those aussie short pips!!!! LOL

indonesia new trader 19:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago Irish 19:50 GMT March 5, 2004
yes i know but the price already down from my possie that have limit at 112.27 which i saw today high 112.32(ask) that means the high bid was 112.29 and that would not count so i prefer not to take my possie.
aniwei thanx bro...

Dublin CK 19:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia,

To be honest i might not be the most informed person you should ask, i have just lost all my capital in the last couple of days. All my own money plus the banks. Its wasnt a millonaire fortune, but it has forced me to seek employment in what i formally did in accountancy, its good money,but very mundane.

I am a new trader too.

The reason i lost the money is because, I went against what i believed in and got whipsawed several times. Each bet i placed was greater than the last to cover my a$$ and it all just blew away.

My advice to you, is to listen to your instincts.

I would try and get the money back, all of it and start again another day. With a better plan, thats my plan. I just need to find someone kind enough to teach me the better ways.

"A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush." remember that.

Now its time for a pint and some laughs with.

Indonesia,

To be honest i might not be the most informed person you should ask, i have just lost all my capital in the last couple of days. All my own money plus the banks.

I am a new trader.

I went against what i believed in and got whipsawed several times. Each bet i placed was greater than the last and it all just blew away.

My advice to you, is to listen to your instincts.

Be care indonessia my friend. There are sharks ever where.

GL/GT

indonesia new trader 19:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP
whats the target of yours usd/jpy buying
thx

Chicago Irish 19:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
New Trader.They should fix their mistake and you should still have your original position

indonesia new trader 19:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
to Chicago Irish , sa getfx , chicago irish
btw thank u so much for help me
fwiuw
and gl gt to u all

Barcelona JP 19:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
It's not mine:

USD/JPY has been paid up to 112.20 in the latest rally with traders now focused
on the 200 day moving average around 112.25. A break of this level is seen
triggering fresh buying for a push towards the next rumored options at 112.50.
Given current momentum, traders would not rule out a move above 113.00 into the
end of the session with EUR/JPY option stops still looming as well

Londo 19:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
taking a nap and see the dollar rebounding anyone could say why please
]

Barcelona JP 19:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 19:36 GMT March 5, 2004

Breaking my rules, I've bought usd/jpy @ 112,15.

Barcelona JP 19:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
USB Warburg is saying that initial USD/JPY explosion could extend to 114,75/115,10

indonesia new trader 19:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 19:31 GMT March 5, 2004
and now second time i ring them they say sorry and will replace my money back by monday
but my possie will not back
should i take it? bacoz my posiie have limit at 112.27 and now the price already goes down
so...
thx

Nottingham Daniel 19:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 19:28 GMT March 5, 2004
The point here is: can eur/usd go higher with boj buying $?

I would say YES - but time v NY close is getting shorter and if we don't have the spike upwards at the close then we can hope we have a trend down wards - take protection that we don't have the spike up!

Chicago Irish 19:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
New Trader....I saw the platform FXSOL print that 61..it was definitely an error

Dublin CK 19:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
On the outlook for eur/$$$ think if 1.25 and 1.26 is sustained, then 1.29 barrier will be broken.

Can the eur/$$$ rise Vs the BOJ, answer IMO is no.

But the BOJ wont intervene for ever, once the economy is humming along like a well oiled machine, then they will let it go. But only after jobs are produced in the USA.

The reason being if your asking, is that, more US jobs = stronger dollar.

Hank from Miama can now go out and buy beers.

Barcelona JP 19:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Another:

Wait for a retracement to 111,50/111,80
Target 113

SA getFX 19:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
indonesia new trader 19:26 GMT > Save an image of your 1 min chart. Email them and query their action, attaching that image.

Dublin CK 19:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
indonesia new trader 19:26 GMT March 5, 2004

Print the chart off for the pair, print the statement from your broker (just in case they delete or alter the records).

From your broker statement it will state the time of your purchase.

Plot the transaction on your chart and then ask your broker to explain how u got stopped out.

U should have entry point 2:00 est, stopped 2:01. IF there is no spike down in those 60 seconds, how can your broker justify it.

It seems like a software problem.

Barcelona JP 19:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
An idea: buy usd/jpy.
S/L 111,70
Target: 113
Trail.

Barcelona JP 19:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The point here is: can eur/usd go higher with boj buying $?

RTM RB 19:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Good evening to all people around.

EUR/USD: Long or short regarding the weeks ahead?
Many thanks in advance for your opinions and remarks.

This forum looks like one of the best.

Dublin CK 19:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, one month ago, all analyst were saying that the yen was heading to 100 and below.

They are now 20% wrong in there calculation.

I agree with you 114-115 is the short term horizon, but medium term i see it attainable.

Remeber its the jpnse financial year end, net assets and liabilities of companies that are valued in foreign dominated currencies must be translated at the year end rate, just one day.

Think of all those companies with a wealth of money abroad, there financial statements and balance sheets will look tremendous.

Glorified window dressing IMO

indonesia new trader 19:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 19:22 GMT March 5, 2004
i have ring them but they said
the mechanic goes home already and i should call again at monday
what can i do now
thank u

Dublin CK 19:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
indonesia new trader 19:17 GMT March 5, 2004

From the chart, that doesnt sound right, from your entry price, the currency never dipped to that level afterwards.

Ring your broker and ask him to explain to you.

Best of luck to you.

prauge viktor 19:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK: im not sure about the 117 level but the 115 maby I think the 114 is for the time been

Barcelona JP 19:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe 113 as well.

BOJ is buying as if they were mad

France Lucky Strike 19:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 19:06 GMT March 5, 2004
I know what you mean. Now, after the rally we saw on euro, I'm pretty sure all the players on eur/usd think FED will not change its rates before a long time. So the mid-term target is heading north and my compass shows me the North. Usd/jpy puts a great pressure but fundamentally, euro is product to buy.IMO

Barcelona JP 19:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 19:15 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP : that what I traid to tell u befor a 1h,and i think still a lot to come G/L

You were and are right. But I told you before, I'll wait for a retracement. They are OB.

I told you that usd/jpy could hit 112,50.

Dublin CK 19:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The hammer reversal candlestick printed two days ago on the Eur/USD chart seems it is the reversal point for wave 3 of Ewave.

indonesia new trader 19:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
too anyone
i just buy usd/jpy at 112.07 at 02.00 est
and suddenly at 02.01 est my position was cut lossed by the platform at 111.61
is it possible
i'm so confuse now and losing a lot money there
thank you

prauge viktor 19:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP : that what I traid to tell u befor a 1h,and i think still a lot to come G/L

Dublin CK 19:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ has pumped $5 billion in intervention today alone and no other country has blinked an eye on protectionism.

The only conclusion that I have come to is that the were given the green light to intervene at any level at any amount after the G8 meeting.

Japan is the second largest economy in the world, all other nations want happy japanese people taking money from under there carpets and to spend it on goods.

Before christmas around halloween the BOJ announced that the ideal rate was 117 and that they promised all those large jpnse congolmeretes that it would average at that level.

Guess what - it will soon get there.

sf mike 19:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
It would be dangerous if we close just below the $Yen gap today. If $Yen opens Monday above the gap, then we have a wholle or island reversal.

prauge viktor 19:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Pecs Andras : both u can make a lot of money if u will play the same gameG/L

Barcelona JP 19:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ has the power, guys. The big power. So better be on their side

Chicago YM 19:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I love boj

sf mike 19:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
$Yen gap may close today. The upper is 113.58.

Barcelona JP 19:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
It's not mine:

A fresh wave of USD/JPY buying has just been seen on
USD/JPY with Tokyo-based players behind the afternoon squeeze higher fuelling
talk of more BOJ intervention. The option stops above 112.00 have been triggered
with USD/JPY at 112.15/20 currently.
The move has taken EUR/JPY above 138.56 and the highs from July 1 2003. EUR/JPY
is now targeting 139.00 knock out options. There is talk of 112.50 options on
USD/JPY along with 113.00 knock outs.

Pecs Andras 19:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Is it BOJ going crazy or some long term traders being squeezed out of hteir shorts?

chicago 19:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I am a forex trader and I am relocating to UK ,, would like to talk to anyone here that lives in London or vicinity... thanks

prauge viktor 19:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
France Lucky Strike : the problem now isnt the system but the BOJ which broking all the systems the only way to stay in this game is to undrestad how they are working G/L

France Lucky Strike 19:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 18:59 GMT March 5, 2004

That an exellent question, that changed my life!
NOTE: 15/35/10
May the trend be with you.

France Lucky Strike 19:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold is above 401, well, above the psychological level of 400 despite of the rally of usd/jpy. I will keep my long as long as this level holds.That suggests euro will hold the current level and will take its revenge as soon as the usd/jpy will have finished its crisis ( hey! take your pill, you'll feel better!)

France Lucky Strike 19:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold is above 401, well, above the psychological level of 400 despite of the rally of usd/jpy. I will keep my long as long as this level holds.That suggests euro will hold the current level and will take its revenge as soon as the usd/jpy will have finished its crisis ( hey! take your pill, you'll feel better!)

Dublin CK 18:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Lucky strike, what time frame do you use on ur MACD and ema's?

ICT ML 18:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
That 210 gbp-jpy I want is coming soon :->

Barcelona JP 18:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   

Out in my eur/jpy short @ BE

France Lucky Strike 18:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Also, MK, when MACD and ema tells me it's obvious to sell, or at least they suggest me it's the better thing to do, I do it, and it works since several months now. iF you make money in doing the opposite of what the reason tells you, good for you, but not for me...

SanFrancisco tg 18:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Beirut -
EurYen-AUD-Sterling all showed an entry short in euro would be against limited odds since they were all holding topside momentum.

France Lucky Strike 18:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I wish it was as simple as that.

BEIRUT MK 18:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Lucky, "as if the situation was always obvious"

never enter a direction when it is obvious,
because when it is obvious averybody go ahead in one
direction so, if all win who will loose

........

CT DB 18:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 18:37,
dont be so hard on yourself!

France Lucky Strike 18:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 18:28 GMT March 5, 2004

Ok, but please try not to say "very stupid" as if the situation was always obvious. I was short on euro/dollar just before the hurricane, tight stop , because technically , dollar buyers was still in control of the market as if some big players knew some confidential informations. I mean, this market, like others , is really like a human body, unforeseeable ...

Good Trade, Good Luck and all the rest...

BEIRUT MK 18:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
stupid

CT DB 18:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BEIRUT MK 18:32,
u better hope the BOJ continue to buy dollars, otherwise u are fukced!

BEIRUT MK 18:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
now, it is time to short eur,
shorted eur at 1.2383 target 1.20X at least

(retest of the broken line)

thank you.

Barcelona JP 18:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I hope to see 137,87 printed.

That's what I hope.

I hope to be Soros and...................

Barcelona JP 18:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 18:14 GMT March 5, 2004
closed all eur/yen shorts @ 138.28

I'm short from 138,33. Wait.

BEIRUT MK 18:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Lucky, i always thank people who read my posting
that's why...,

thank you.

Barcelona JP 18:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Once I have 10, I trail stop to BE

Sydney bl 18:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sf mike thanks

Barcelona JP 18:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Scalping is a risky play, but if you have a system, a way of trading is rewarding.

SanFrancisco tg 18:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
7620 AUD could serve as a ceiling though today. Tough to warrant a short though.

SanFrancisco tg 18:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If Aud is any indication of general flow, it lost the downside momentum an hour ago. Sterling has followed suit, and Euro grudgingly can't be immune in the end today.

France Lucky Strike 18:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold holds the shock
Bought euro
Beirut, it's also very stupid to say thank you at the end of each post, as if we are forced to swallow them. I also say that because nothing is really stupid ( very stupid), I've got enough experience now to say that : like in the universe, everything is possible in the financial markets. What about if the us datas was exellent for dollar? Is that impossible?
Thank you very much indeed

Barcelona JP 18:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Looking for 137,80 at least. We'll see.

Barcelona JP 18:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/jpy. risky.

vancouver jpb 18:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
closed all eur/yen shorts @ 138.28

BEIRUT MK 18:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
it was very stupid to short euro
when it was at 1.2190

thank you.

BEIRUT MK 18:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
close short usdcad from 1.3389
close short usdchf from 1.2963

thank you

sf mike 18:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
bl/ NY close at 5:00PM est or 9:00AM your time.

Barcelona JP 18:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 17:54 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP : I know and i respect u very much Im using the ichimoku as the boj and by this way i start understad when they will start and for how long im long since 106,and 1,35

I use it as well, Viktor.

Sydney bl 18:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
what time will NY close

Barcelona Tony 17:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sorry forgot to mention pound ... which hasn't broken anything yet (even a downtrend line inside the downtrend channel), so things are very interesting at this moment

Global-View 17:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GVI 17:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Edit Delete
DJ reports MOF/BOJ intervention today may be a record amount

Barcelona JP 17:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm out.

We'll wait now

Barcelona Tony 17:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
anyway what is truly interesting is that while euro has broken and it is still holding above the channel, the swiss hasn't broken it yet, so things are pretty much the same ... but in different prices

prauge viktor 17:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP : I know and i respect u very much Im using the ichimoku as the boj and by this way i start understad when they will start and for how long im long since 106,and 1,35

Barcelona Tony 17:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Euro holding above downtrend channel ... more upside to come???!?¿

Barcelona JP 17:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
trail, sorry

Barcelona JP 17:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
trial, we could find a barrier @ 1,2370 if wue get there

sf mike 17:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Watch 1.8380 on cable?

Barcelona JP 17:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well fellows, should you pay me a drink, I think

Msc rocket 17:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
TO hong kong nt 16:57 GMT March 5, 2004
ab -- reversed all positions....
Pls specify your current side if possible.

Barcelona JP 17:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If they allow us, nest stop in eur/usd will be 1,2335

sf mike 17:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
This day could be the correction needed to drive EUR down to 1.20.

ICT ML 17:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
All I can say is "Go you crazy Japs Go!"...LOL nice when they are helping instead of screwing me..lOL

Barcelona JP 17:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe you will see them @ 112,50, but I will not be there.

Barcelona JP 17:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 17:37 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP:what u think about long usd/yen and long eur/yen thanks

I do not trade that way.

I have a system and now they are OB. So I'll not do it.
Wait for a retracement.

Barcelona JP 17:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What a fight now @ 111,80

sf mike 17:40 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
There goes $Y, where is the gap.

Barcelona JP 17:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
UB Tulga 17:36 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP
It is nice warm up there right in Barcelona? It is freezing cold in Mongolia

Yes, it is

Van jv 17:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 17:24 /////the new game will start, first we may see retest of lows 1.2050.....

prauge viktor 17:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP:what u think about long usd/yen and long eur/yen thanks

São Paulo SP 17:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I export ot USA since 1996. Now, one supermarket want me to find products with a lower price there in USA. I would like to receive e-mails for future contact, please.

Barcelona JP 17:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
cerete juan david 17:34 GMT March 5, 2004
barcelona i also shorte eur/usd but i'm getting really bore waiting how much should we wait to see some action????

That's it, but we must learn to wait.

A good meal need time.

UB Tulga 17:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP
It is nice warm up there right in Barcelona? It is freezing cold in Mongolia.

Barcelona JP 17:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I think as I said @ 7 GMT that the top is USD/JPY is @ 111,60-111,85

cerete juan david 17:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
barcelona i also shorte eur/usd but i'm getting really bore waiting how much should we wait to see some action????

UB Tulga 17:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP
still a few pips. :-)

Algarve Box 17:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:25
Ok... I'm selling... BANZAIIIII

Barcelona JP 17:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
UB Tulga 17:30 GMT March 5, 2004
Seems EUR/USD has reached it's high for today. Short?

I'm @ 1,2415

GER ad 17:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:26
EUR/JPY 138.40+ is not sustainable for the moment IMHO.

UB Tulga 17:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Seems EUR/USD has reached it's high for today. Short?

vancouver jpb 17:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
opened eur/yen puts @

138.38, 138.40. 138,42

Barcelona JP 17:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 17:23 GMT March 5, 2004
If USD/JPY stay so strong (111.60) EUR/USD may not hold over 1.2360 and we will see later ~1.2310

Why?

Barcelona JP 17:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
As I said, eur/jpy is a sell @ 138,10. Very, very, very risky.

I'll not go, but................

LHR B747 17:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Whole new trigger games start as the following:

EUR/USD @ 1.2600 (1.2600-1.3010)
USD/JPY @ 112.50 (112.50-120)
EUR/JPY @ 141/- (141-150)

Will they start?
Your opinions please

GER ad 17:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If USD/JPY stay so strong (111.60) EUR/USD may not hold over 1.2360 and we will see later ~1.2310

vancouver jpb 17:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm killing with these up and down eur/yen shorts

open put @ 138.37

close put @ 138.17

+20 pips

Barcelona JP 17:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
camas rpw 17:16 GMT March 5, 2004
have we seen the euro high for today?

I think so, but sets see what BOJ does with USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

LHR B747 17:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
camas rpw : Yes @ 1.2434

camas rpw 17:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
have we seen the euro high for today?

Barcelona JP 17:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
But with BOJ in @ bln is very difficult to trade. Take care.

Porto PJT 17:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
PORTO VMA 17:09 , i read lot of stuff related to options too, but we never know the real deal behind that, so better to concentrate on techs.

Barcelona JP 17:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Maybe wrong, but we'd see eur/usd @ 1,2335/1,2304 today.

LHR B747 17:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:04 GMT:
Steel prices are at highest levels since years.
Read again about the designer and the factory

sf mike 17:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What are these numbers?

Barcelona JP 17:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ln 17:04 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP. Do you think it will continue now that payrolls shows lack of employment growth...Bush is gona try for weak $ again?

Well, if you look @ the others three pairs, you'll see that BOJ has got a fight. They do not care. They want a weak jpy.

Lets see, eur/usd now could go up again following retracements. Europe is a mess and we'll see how they stop that.

PORTO VMA 17:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 17:04 GMT March 5, 2004
OK, no problem. I read in other site this morning that big players buy a specific option, but as i don´t understand that i´ve asked if you know any thing :-)

LHR B747 17:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:04 GMT:
(1) SONY @ USD 115/- EUR 145/-
(2) MATSUSHITA @ USD 115.50 EUR 143.50
(3) TOYOTA @ USD 114/- EUR 143/-

Oakland Daimyo 17:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
As this forum tends to get out of hand sometimes and many people take trades just for the sake of taking trades (addiction), I would like to make a suggestion that was made by another member of this forum:

Calcutta Vikram 11:30 GMT August 30, 2002
Athens....I have this notice displayed in front of me, above my PC:
1) Every READING does NOT translate into a TRADE
2) You don't need to TRADE everyday

Vikram you are so right, I also have this taped to my monitor. This is a business not a hobby. Keep that in mind.

GER ad 17:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 16:58 ,
Yes and this time very succesfull (~650 pips in 2 weeks)

Porto PJT 17:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
PORTO VMA 16:50 , really i dont know nothing about that, but have the FEELING that many players have done that on euro, gbp and aud and now if market turns they need to defend the positions at specific levels like fibo levels etc.Based on that THEORY i expect a tech market.Sorry if i give you a wrong idea with my bs bla bla bla without knowing anything in concrete.

ln 17:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP. Do you think it will continue now that payrolls shows lack of employment growth...Bush is gona try for weak $ again?

Barcelona JP 17:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Exporters have barriers @ 111,60/80

LHR B747 17:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 17:01: Japan is the designer and China is the factory while 31/MAR/2004 is the value date.

The stakes of Japan and China are in USD/YEN @ 115-118 and for EUR/YEN @ 142-147

Good luck...!!!

SanFrancisco tg 17:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Must add something to my earlier post pointing out the US actually has a net gain in johs. Today's NFP report was nasty, and while showing a gain, is a big red flag for slowing in hiring. Fortunately there are counter effects pointing to this being temporary, but this NFP has to be reason for concern for US economics and the markets show it.

Barcelona JP 17:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ buying again

Chicago Irish 17:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
YM 16.58.....Does a bear s-h-i-t in the woods?

Stockholm za 17:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...... we are still in the bear channel & out look .......
and only a days low above ~12505/20 zoan will erase the out look ..........Key top side P ~12611/20 band as seen at the moment..........
Happy trades .....Happy WE to ALL...........

Barcelona JP 17:01 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM 16:58 GMT March 5, 2004
Question: Is BOJ attempting to push up usd/jpy to weaken yen?

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Barcelona JP 17:01 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY is a sell @ 138,10, A very risky one

Chicago YM 16:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Question: Is BOJ attempting to push up usd/jpy to weaken yen?

UB Tulga 16:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What is the current standing on EUR/USD? Can any one help?

vancouver jpb 16:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
been making great quick moves shorting the euro/yen

climb to 138.45

short to 138.25

hong kong nt 16:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- reversed all positions, eur 1.241, gbp 1.848, chf 1.269, cad 1.317, aud .762. good trades...

Barcelona JP 16:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 16:48 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP: What makes you to have such a huge fear from sharks?
Are you bleeding?

:)

Sharks now play @ our game. They are fighting against BOJ and that is positive to my eur/usd short.

Sydney bl 16:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML thanks

ICT ML 16:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydnney bl...sorry that was time...sold at 1.2417 for an 11:00 Fixing order rumored to be what was keeping price high...took a chance on it being true

Gen dk 16:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney bl 16:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 10:59 is that a time or price

cerete juan david 16:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
i do hold eur shorts but it's getting on my nerves already, nex chance i got i will close it...

PORTO VMA 16:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 16:14 GMT March 5, 2004
hI PJT,
Can you explain this exotic option defense? What you mean?

ICT ML 16:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 16:44 GMT March 5, 2004
does any still hold eur short
Yes, sold at 10:59 into a rumored fixing order keeping the market up.....stop it at even...we'll see if this turns to GOLD or COAL soon...LOL

LHR B747 16:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP: What makes you to have such a huge fear from sharks?
Are you bleeding?

:)

Barcelona JP 16:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 16:44 GMT March 5, 2004
does any still hold eur short

I do from 1,2415

Barcelona JP 16:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
fighting against boj

Barcelona JP 16:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sharks are here

Sydney bl 16:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
can any one tell me what time will the NY close

Sydney bl 16:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
does any still hold eur short

HONG KONG RAY 16:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
a very tricky thought,greenspan seems to know the fig. few days ahead and what he said just let the market have a reversal bigger than expected so as to fasten the retracement of usd bear and let it go down even deeper to ease the triple deficits,if true he is pointing his magic wand again,any comments.

Barcelona JP 16:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
In the last 20 minutes, estimates have
ranged from $4 bln to $8 bln as the BOJ is desperate now to keep USD/JPY away
from looming stops.

cerete juan david 16:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 16:36 GMT March 5, 2004

sorry if i hurt your delicate EARS...

Barcelona JP 16:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY is a sell @ 111,60-80

LHR B747 16:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
*** Fresh from Debka ***

Friday signing of Iraq interim constitution delayed by absence of five Shiite members. Ceremony due Wednesday was postponed by funerals for 270 Shiites murdered by suicide bombers.

Shiites claim second thoughts on some provisions. DEBKAfile reports they may have developed cold feet after attacks. Bremer who led council to unanimous approval of compromise text is furious.

Earlier Friday, several mortar rounds fired at Baghdad international airport, two explosions in Baghdad. No injuries reported.

Barcelona JP 16:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ has taken in 5 bln.

Barcelona JP 16:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I do like this fight

Barcelona JP 16:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Seems I've got it

GVI john 16:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Juan david--
Please use lower case type. Capital letters are the internet equivalent of shouting. Thank you :-)

Aden PK 16:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP,
Thanks once again I am out from Euro/Dlr and Aus/Dlr with bearable losses, now only left cable which is hurting hopefully will drop to 1.8420 level,

All forum freinds have a wonderful weekend, I will be calling a day off now

cerete juan david 16:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
IS IT TIME TO CLOSE SHORT POSITIONS ON EUR/USD???

Chicago YM 16:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
keep going

Livingston nh 16:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
viktor , jv - thanx both but lucky is better than smart - monthly figures are as much guesswork as anything

Barcelona JP 16:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BIG sharks are here now

Barcelona JP 16:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BIG sharks are here now

Aden PK 16:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP,
Thank you for your thoughts I will move buy orders to 1.2385 to suare the position. Other request if you feel comfortable can I have your email address through Mr. Jay. Good luck and have a nice week end

cerete juan david 16:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HOW COME GOT OSAMA BIN LADEN GOT MIX IN 50 MINUTES RECENT MARKET MOVES??? HUH!

Ldn 16:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hope the big boys will sort BOJ out............................

lugano rob roy 16:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
out from everything. Really an awful friday.

Sydney bl 16:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP are you still holding the EUR short

Saigon 16:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Please tel me POJ is who and which country they are in? thank you

Barcelona JP 16:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 16:19 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP did you short again. on which pair


EUR/USD, but I must say that we are stopped by BOJ.
So is very, very risky

Barcelona JP 16:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Aden PK 16:14 GMT March 5, 2004

Why did you shorted the pairs @ those levels?

ICT ML 16:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 16:17 ...was going to point that out myself...thanks for doing so...:->

Nottingham 16:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:18 GMT

things will never change...reminds me of that old computer game, lemmings

Barcelona JP 16:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Aden PK 16:14 GMT March 5, 2004

Boj is here. I don't like it. I've shorted eur/usd twice @ this levels, but eur/jpy is stop by boj.
If eur/jpy does not follow or a central banc sell eur, eur/usd will be where it is now between this range : 1,2380-1,2496

Sydney bl 16:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP did you short again. on which pair

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Good call Raden wherever you are.

nyc jk 16:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
lol za. yeah funny how that works huh

prauge viktor 16:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh: I would like to thank u for ur helpfull number yesterday when u wrot its going to be about 65000,u realy saved me thank u and G/L

Stockholm za 16:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 16:09 GMT........ Raden_mas did few days ago .....and was almost 31§8"¤"¤"%# killed...

Barcelona JP 16:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Done it again

Cains Aussie 16:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
To Barcelona JP.

CNBC say possible intervention by JPY

Ldn 16:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Beijing Monaco org said this today

Talk of a double no touch option 1,2050-1,2650 was written for a good amount.

Aden PK 16:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Good evening freinds,
Barcelona JP, I am Short euro/USD from 1.2346 GBP/USd from 1.8329 Aus/USd from .7573 I am not expecting a substantial retracement therefore now have a limit to buy back at 1.2385 and 1.2375 in cable at 1.8410 and in Aus/dlr at .7585

I shall appreciate your viewif differ from mine to adjust the orders accordingly enabling to reduce losses unfortynately today I have quite a large positions three times more what normally I trade
Regards,

Porto PJT 16:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Seams we will have a very tech week ahead, plenty of options defenses too etc, just a feeling.

Saigon 16:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
thank,s!
On the news saw that the Yen may be push down to how deep, Please read thishttp://www.censored.com/resources/forexnews.asp?id=17934

Nottingham 16:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I heard it's 1.20 (50/80) 1.26 (50/80) dnt expiring 1st april

Livingston nh 16:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The US Congress is now under pressure to renew an unemployment compensation program that it scrapped in December and the protectionism that G'span has been warning about will be getting a big boost - any thoughts that the ECB had that the Fed might hike thereby taking pressure off an ECB cut is history - the "strong dollar policy" is still in effect (isn't it?)

prauge viktor 16:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gep dont worry about the aussie i closded it at 0,7493 yesterday,but what u think about the usd is the rally over or not yet I mean are we going now to 1,3 level and 140for the eur/yen thanks

cerete juan david 16:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 16:05 GMT March 5, 2004
I KNOW WHAT YOU MEAN ABOUT CHOPPY MARKETS...SHOULD I GET OUT LATER WHEN I KNEW THERE WAS GOING TO BE SOME STALLING...TAKE MY PROFIT AND GO RELAX...

beijing road 16:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
who said today there are good size of 1.2150(or 1.2050?)/1.2650 DNT option? Any1 has the clue?

nyc jk 16:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
well...after all the I see 1.1950's, 1.18's etc the past couple days, who wants to be the first to start kicking off the 1.29, 1.35 party lol

Barcelona JP 16:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Saigon 16:04 GMT March 5, 2004
Now allmost currency have benn push up except the Yen. Any one known Why? pleease tell

BOJ taking in 5bln $ since NFP

GER ad 16:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Saigon 16:04,
From IFR - 15:50 USD/JPY Supported by Sustantial BOJ intervention...

nyc jk 16:07 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ on the bid Saigon, so it ain't going down.

Sydney bl 16:07 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Saigon because BOJ sell yan

beijing road 16:07 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If eur closes above 1.24level, it is quite good signal for the bulls.

OK SZ 16:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I did not trade this morning due to waiting for my funds to transfer to my broker..I would have traded the first thing this mornign to get some easy pips after the number..however I would not trade now due to the choppiness of the market at this time..I have learned the hard way that I cannot trade choppy markets..so will wait till sunday night to see what happens..everyone have a great weekend..

Saigon 16:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Now allmost currency have benn push up except the Yen. Any one known Why? pleease tell

Chicago YM 16:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Go down Euro

UB Tulga 16:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Is there resistance at 12420s and support at 12390s? EUR/USD

Rivonia PipPirate 16:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas (Kinkos)!!! GEP LOL you have a choice of six vehicles to get yerself to kinkos, but only one telco line. I think we know where your heart lies. Ü

Barcelona JP 16:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm out, eur/jpy must follow

Barcelona JP 15:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I do not like it; eur/jpy does not follow

Nottingham 15:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:52 GMT

...so you're looking for higher here then? Reason I ask is some of my studies point to a good break out this month...no clue on direction of it tho...gl gt

cerete juan david 15:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
A DOJI CROSS HAVE FORMED IN SOME MAJOR CURRENCY PAIRS...

sgp sp 15:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, good for u, profits to offset ur temporary loss in usd/cad longs. :)

HK [email protected] 15:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I think one can have some food for thought by looking on the Hammer in progress on the weekly Eur/$$$. not only on short terms mov"mts

Barcelona JP 15:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Take care. Place S/L according to your way of trading.

Mine is @ 1,2435

Helsinki iw 15:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY looks a good long.IMHO

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I loaded aud/nzd longs these two days.

one at 1.1150!!!
2 at 1.1170,
1 at 1.1180
1 at 1.12.

cerete juan david 15:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
barcelona what about shorting gbp/usd?

UB Tulga 15:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Below 12400. Shorting time is closing?

Barcelona JP 15:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd

Sydney bl 15:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
can EUR be a short now

Dallas (Kinkos)!!! GEP 15:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok Guys, In will take back the BONEHEAD of the day award for not having internet rendundantcy access (just for today howver!!! lOL). I will post back in an hour or so after new location

sgp sp 15:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I had liquidated my aud/nzd possies so long ago and had not looked at it since plus I was short on aud/usd, nzd/usd and eur/aud. I had a limit order at 1.1150 which was not filled, so, no I do not have any aud/nzd positions.

U got some levels to reccommend?

Dublin Flip 15:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
tg you must be devasted to know that you only have one vote. Imagine all those ex white collar burger flippers that can than thank junior for their new careers in the hospitality game this november. Maybe if they had all the facts they'd vote differently- LOL

Barcelona JP 15:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Do not long usd/chf, eur/usd does not follow. WAIT

Dallas (Kinkos)!!! GEP 15:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
A quick word about postion loss recovery before I go. I am a VERY firm beleiver that if you lose money in a postion, the WORST thing you can do it try to make it back all in at once with a heavier postion. Keep your postion size relatively the same ESPECIALLY if your funds are limited. It is also good if you have the ability to take other postions while the one you have is down. For example, it's no secret that the Aussie shorts I had with the exception of the last one really were never making any money because I was waiting on the Aussie short train to start down the tracks and it got derailed for the time being with this bad ISM data. BUT, the thing is, postions were still being taken and money was being made on other new postions as was posted the last couple of days. Now , you WILL NOT have the ability to take other trades if you over committ to any ONE position. So a good rule of thump is to NOT committ more than 2-5 % of your equity to any one trade UNLESS your stops are adjusted accordingly. If you are able to WIN more positions than you LOSE and your possie size is relatively the same with good stop loss management then ultimately money will be made.

sgp sp 15:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia, thanks for your timely warning prior to data release. I closed all my aud/usd, nzd/usd, eur/aud shorts and usd/chf longs with good profits immediately after reading your post. Only longs remaining are the usd/cad ones and I have ample funds to layer it till 1.28.....:)

B.A. Boca, your explanations on mkt reaction to data also contributed greatly to my above decision. Thank u 2. :)

hk ab, I sincerely hope you can ride out this squeeze. gl & gt 2 u.


melbourne farmacia 13:13 GMT March 5, 2004
Regardless of jobs data today, intraday shorts should cover above 1.2220 euro & swissy longs below 1.2900, these read as pressure points in my book.

beijing road 15:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
JP: maybe eur will consolidate btw 123-124 for couple days before next big movement.GL

UB Tulga 15:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Is there any free signal for metatrader?

cerete juan david 15:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
has anyone here just opened a short position in gbp/usd???

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sp do you have aud/nzd positions?

Barcelona JP 15:40 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Wait usd/chf until 1,2720

Barcelona JP 15:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Take care

Barcelona JP 15:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF is a buy above 1,2718

Barcelona JP 15:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Cable is a short now below 1,8445

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP if I maybe so bold to suggest that maybe is time to invest on a laptop and a normal modem line as a backup you can take both anywhere there is a phone line available. My adsl line has been down before and telephone too. My only way to communicate was to go to my father’s house and use his phone. Or you can even hook up with a cellular in a real emergency. Just my two cents worth on the line.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
re: cad.

Barcelona JP 15:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Next stop eur @ 1,2448.

Lets see.

It's a short below 1,2395

cerete juan david 15:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
any comments on gbp/usd?

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sp// yes. but I hate being squeezed by BOJ on eur/jpy fronts.

usa long all the time 15:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
i am a winner
was long euro
long dk .long cable
long gold
long nk
from all rates for last 3 days

chicag0 15:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hi all.I am forex trader looking to relocate in UK
Looking anyone here in the UK.. let me know .. thanks

Dallas (Kinkos)!!! GEP 15:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Good suggestion OMIL. I have an ERASER type program that takes out registry and cookie information so that once I run it you could not tell I was ever on.

Algarve Box 15:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 15:15 GMT March 5, 2004
Did you know what is the problem?
- The mess is compounding... daily!
The worst thing we can do about any problem in life is try find excuses for errors. The trick is construct solutions.
If we see the pundits we can compare the comments with a trading strategy where as base our strategy is... try to price-average our loss!
It's the easy... and the worst way :)

Oakland Daimyo 15:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP---That's how it goes sometime. I had a monitor blowup earlier this week (had to replace w backup CRT) and platforms have been lit up since yesterday so I new today would not be a good day to trade for me. To all who enjoyed todays ride, GT (quick fingers), To all who missed it or who were hurt by it. Don't worry, there's always another opportunity. There's no teacher like experience. I will repeat however, many bulls who were caught over the last few weeks (but still holding/sweating) will be the 1st to dump positions as soon as they see deep red again (should have gotten out even--how many times have we all heard this) GL & GT

Quito Ecuador Valdez 15:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP// No prob on using someone else's computer if you change your passwords to your accounts when you are done using that machine but do the changes on your own machine. Depends on who's computer it is too. You'd be surprized who has a program in their machine that records ALL keystrokes. You can download them as freeware! OK no more from me...just wanted you to know that if you already didn't.

Rivonia PipPirate 15:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas (Kinkos)!!! Suggest add redundancy to yer system, get ADSL as back-up. gl

Barcelona JP 15:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will be a sell signal @ 1.2385/90

Dallas (Kinkos)!!! GEP 15:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well I have just been told. it is against KINKO's policy to let you download software so I am screwed temporarily from getting my chart access. I will go to another location and get back to you guys.

WARNING!!! USD Bears may be relentless in the efforts so be aware of situations where the market APPEARS to have topped out because you will be VERY tempted to enter your USD Bull postion and then another WAVE of Bear postions may appear.

london 15:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
and your chocolate ration has been increased from 5grams to 8 grams this month 1984

Helsinki iw 15:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Funny how EUR/GBP never managed to break resistance at
0,6725/35 through all this. Good r/r in shorting it.

SanFrancisco tg 15:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
For anyone concerned about the issue, the US employment scenario is simply not what is being portrayed. I’m not sure the truth regarding US employment conditions is being honestly portrayed overall. Consider these issues :

THE HYPE FIGURE :
* 2.3 million jobs lost since President Bush took office.

THE FACTS :
* No net loss of jobs during the Bush administration.

* Net gain, even with the devastation of 9/11.

* At least 2.4 million jobs have been created since the president took office, 2 million in 2003, offsetting the losses.

* At least 366,000 created in the five months before 2/04, over 100,000 in January as noted by White House press secretary Scott McClellan.

* The 5.6 percent unemployment rate, which still stands even after the disappointing Non Farm Payroll Report on 3/04 (no loss, but less than expected job gains) is the lowest in two years and below the average of the 1980s (7.3 percent) and '90s (5.8 percent) and holding a declining median trend line.

* The nation's economic output revealed the strongest quarterly growth in 20 years. The data for the fourth quarter of 2003 show that the civilian labor force rose by 333,000, while the number of unemployed in the labor force dropped by 575,000. Even better, the number of so-called discouraged workers declined in December.

* The number of American workers is at an all-time high of 138.5 million, a level never before attained in U.S. history.

* Jobless claims are 10 percent below the average of the last 25 years and still falling.

* Hiring indices are up, even in manufacturing.

* Consumer spending grew between 4 percent and 5 percent last year, and real hourly earnings rose 1.5 percent. Real earnings have risen over the last three years.

* U.S. households saw their total net worth rise in Q4 2003 to a record $44.41 trillion.

* The Fed said household net worth also grew as a percentage of disposable personal income, rising to 5.3 times income in the fourth quarter, up from 5.1 in the third quarter and 5.0 a year earlier.

* U.S. retailers posted their strongest monthly sales gain in more than three years in 3/04.

* Debt is declining. The Fed's quarterly "flow of funds" report also showed U.S. nonfinancial debt grew at a 6.6% pace in the fourth quarter, down from a revised 7% growth rate in the third quarter.

* Exports doubled to 19 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to less than 9 percent in the third.


Where the bogus $2.3 million figure comes from :

75 percent of jobs are created by small companies, but the sector’s jobs creation is are left out by Washington counters when calculating official new job numbers.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does its Payroll Survey by phoning businesses to crunch the number of jobs that have been gained or lost. This is where the doom and gloom crowd grabbed onto their lifeline, the 2.3 million figure. Look only at the Payroll Survey, and there has been a gain of only 522,000 jobs since Bush took office.

The Household Survey is used to determine the unemployment rate and accounts for those who are self-employed, and small emerging businesses that might be overlooked by the Payroll Survey. But the number of U.S. firms isn’t static, and the "fixed list" used by the BLS for phoning established businesses does not reflect new entrepreneurial activity.

People are called at home and asked if they have jobs, or if they are in the market for a job. In contrast to the Payroll Survey, the Household Survey shows that 2.4 million jobs have been created so far during Bush's time in office.
Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and others hardly batted an eye. Greenspan said it was "probably feasible" the economy would reach the Bush administration's forecast of adding 2.6 million jobs this year, provided growth continues and the productivity rate slows to more typically levels. "I don't think it's 'Fantasyland,'" Greenspan said. "I agree with him," said John Ryding, chief market economist at Bear Stearns. "I think that we will create 2.5 million, possibly more, jobs over the balance of the year."
Could we see the revision patterns of the early-1990s recovery cycle repeated ? A total of 1.4 million job gains were revised upward to 2.9 million in the first 21 months after the end of the last recession, just after Bush Sr. was voted out of office.

Helsinki iw 15:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Sold some EUR/USD around here, hourlies stretched.
Obviously high risk trade, better resitance at 1,2570/80 only.

Stockholm za 15:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw................EUR/USD....At the moment
0,294 bullish factor in Range......
ema (13 & 21 & 89 ->day ) + ema (144 ->3hour )......
~12438/58 -> given.......
~12473 -> clip or pull ~12364
Happy trades......

Barcelona JP 15:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Get ready boys!!!

Barcelona JP 15:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I think S&P is up cause the rate hike will be later than sooner.

sgp sp 15:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, r u still holding your usd/cad longs?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GEP be careful putting you personal INFO like passwords and ID numbers in a stranger’s computer. The numbers can be retraced in that computer leaving your account exposed IMO. Hope you get your stuff fixed. GL GT

Global-View 15:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If anyone has seen intermittent problems with our site (a rarity), please refresh your screens as it is being worked on.

Nottingham 15:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA 15:11 GMT

fwiw...although hourlies/4 hourlies are now showing some signs of hope for euro bears, I wouldn't look to long dollar today in anything but cad and that's assuming my o/s levels are reached...bottom line is US$ far from oversold since we came into figures o/b so no need to run in...gl gt

Dallas (Kinkos)!!! GEP 15:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well late yesterday we had storms in the area and it took out my internet access. I posted last night from a visiting location and now I am at Kinko's of all places (still down at normal location). Last night I took another AUSSIE short frpm .7530 with a TP @ .7500. I also readjusted stops to .7550 on existing shorts I already had.

To make a long story short, I STILL can't get in my platform but the new Aussie short apparently DID take and it limited out @ .7500 prior to the BAD ISM data (I don't know what time). That's the good news. The bad news is the other Aussie shorts stopped out @ .7550 from an average traded of .7492 for @ 58 pip loss (really x3 because of postion size). So I have a couple of days work ahead of me to get that back!!! LOL

IF I can get KINKOS here to let me download my platform software I will post back here pretty quick with what I see FWIW. If NOT I will go to another office location and post back once I get there. The IDIOT cable modem people SAID it MIGHT me my modem but I tried to replace it earlier and SS. The storms apprently got some equipment WET and it took out line. I know some of you are hurting from this swing and I wanted to post to tell you guys that are banged up a little I am with you still and to those that WERE going the right way, I couldn't be happier.

Careful with top picking for shorts onviously. Now if I can only get this ADMON password for I could download my platform, all would be better!!! LOL

Ldn Viewer 15:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 15:11 - YEN on BOJ drug .. S & P well maybe USD bought in yen being used in S&P ... lol

Ldn 15:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
CNBC newyork say that the employment data good news as interest rates can stay low, and homeowners can borrow more and refinance their homes further !! amazing

Barcelona JP 15:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD will be a short @ 1,2385/70 if it gets there.

B.A. BOCA 15:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham // this weak jobs number buys plently of pints tonight. no use in sticking to 'idealistic targets'-

if this dollar rally really has some legs, then it needs to rally on bad news..so far not showing signs of new dollar longs coming into the market like you said. but it is friday!

GL

Sydney gvm 15:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
whatever drugs the S&P and yen are on after these figures...I WANT SOME !!!!

Barcelona Tony 15:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
euro downtrend channel broken fwiw

Nottingham 15:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...some technical support at 1.3110/30...1st o/s at 1.3070 2nd at 1.3025...failing to make lower lows (at the moment) in line with higher highs on eurusd so those levels may not come into play...gl gt

Ldn 15:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Too early to give up on US80c dollar
The Australian dollar might hit US80c later this year and even shoot above that, despite a dramatic plunge this week.

analysts say the dollar remains supported by strong commodity prices and a relatively wide differential between Australian and US interest rates, and that a further domestic interest rate rise could lead to another rally.
Press.

Barcelona JP 15:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ taken in about 5bln $ since the data

OK SZ 15:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ok sense clearing 12385 level looks like next target is 12460/75 and then possible to 12540 I got..any comments welcome

Nottingham Daniel 15:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well it seems that I am not the only person to have platform problems with this spike - two out three limit orders were excuted - Well I am now short on the Euro$ - GBP$ & Long $CHF -

Barcelona JP 15:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Ok.
Next stop in eur/usd, if does not lose 1,2380, 1,2496

UB Tulga 15:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Totally lost. Where are we heading? EUR/USD

london damage 15:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
cheers oakland....be careful lads....friday afternoon, been nasty moves already this week and that number was very important and was inordinately bad

HKG SK 15:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Just march across 1.24

UB Tulga 15:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
No resistance 1.2400

Oakland Daimyo 15:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
london damage 14:59 GMT March 5, 2004

Point well taken. Time will tell. GT to you

london damage 15:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
juan david....why do you want to sell stg now?..the dollar is plummeting, dont try and catch a falling piano.

Oakland Daimyo 15:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Looks like buyers are determined. Let's see what they got.

london damage 14:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
UB, oakland

as treasury yields fall, us investors will chase yield...so its back to the carry trades that most of them got carted out of in the last couple of weeks....stg, aud, euro. By proxy after this number, it sures up the fact that the fed is on hold at 1 pct for a while yet (goldamns say until mid 05), so it just makes it easy to borrow dollars, sell them, buy a high yielding ccy and pocket the carry

usd/yen will be the laggard mover as eur/yen, stg/yen and aud/yen all rally.

within 2 weeks, euro will be back 1.26/1.27 and commensurate moves in the others.

KL KL 14:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
@^*&$^@%...power failure and have not been restored for the last one hour....let see how long my battery last...If don't get a chance to trade today...GL. GT and leave some for me ....next week...!#%*!%$$&!

melbourne farmacia 14:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 14:38 GMT March 5, 2004
Well swiss printed 1.2716 so covered that, covered euro at 80, flat on gbp and yen's a dog !

cerete juan david 14:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
entry order shorting gbp/usd at 1.8415 targeting 1.8350

any comments?

Quito Ecuador Valdez 14:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
G'marnin' fellas. What did that BTW? Greenspan playing now? Hope no one got a bloody nose on that one.

Nottingham 14:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Euro probably done enough in taking out majority of headline shorters...if pair is going to head lower, serious players likely add new shorts from here upwards...bottom line is upward progression will be decidely tougher current prices...gl gt

>>>B.A. BOCA...hope your quids in mate!!!

cerete juan david 14:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 14:43 GMT March 5, 2004
What is a good place to short gbpusd?? or retrace to buy more long??

at this moment is experiencing some stalling, some say that it should pull back to the 1.8350 zone, so this should be the best moment to short it, however i'm waiting for a confirmation so i wont open my short position until i see some trend forming...

Barcelona JP 14:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd failed again above 1,2380

Oakland Daimyo 14:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 14:43 GMT March 5, 2004
Let the market participants decide for you. Be patient

Oakland Daimyo 14:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
london damage 14:39 GMT March 5, 2004
I would not be overly confident in USD/ US Treasury correlation, with USD index holding 88 and USD/JPY holding 111, you may be witnessing serious bucks going through. somebody is hard at work.

UB Tulga 14:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
london damage
Can you tell me where is it heading?

Barcelona Tony 14:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
but if euro can't break the downtrend channel upwards ... then ... $ bulls may come in again ... can't break it for the moment

KL KL 14:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What is a good place to short gbpusd?? or retrace to buy more long??

prauge viktor 14:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
SG Jay 14:38 GMT March 5, 2004
Guys , do you think w
e will see 1.25ish today for eur/usd If not today it well be the next week g/L

london damage 14:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
just have a look at whats happening with US treasuries yield, that will tell you where the dollar is going.

Gen dk 14:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Oakland Daimyo 14:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:33 GMT March 5, 2004
Could be the best thing for you. I'm sitting on my hands for now. Will wait till the dust settles. If this is the start of a new USD bear run, we will get another chance to enter on the long side. Not interested in that at the time being as I do not believe max pain has been felt for these eternal bulls.

SG Jay 14:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Guys , do you think we will see 1.25ish today for eur/usd ?

Barcelona Tony 14:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
if euro breaks 1.24 and holds there ... new bull run for him

HK [email protected] 14:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3535555.stm

Bin Laden 'evaded Pakistani raid'

by Andrew North
BBC, Tora Bora in Afghanistan

london damage 14:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
all you guys predicting a dollar rally are dreaming.

the market will hammer the dollar back to its lows in the near future.....all the big guns that have bailed out of dollar shorts recently will be steaming back in after that number.

expect new highs for the euro. aud, cad etc.

melbourne farmacia 14:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo 14:21 GMT March 5, 2004
Yeah i'm not jumping ship until levels seen or sell signal pops up etc.. could be riding this until monday, anyway bed time soon for me. gt

ICT ML 14:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
$1M question is where is gbp/jpy heading right now.......thought it was gunning straight to 206 ...still room left on my stuff to go up....any ideas? TP on pull back, might reenter if turns up...

IST Sez 14:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
London SS,
just realized it when eur/usd up?İf not eur/usd up,u were idiot
ha?

Van jv 14:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
livingston nh///you were right in your employment analysis ....thanks...
and well said PAR 13:47 GMT March 5, 2004
Every first year student in economics (contrary to CNBC economists ) understands that with too low price of capital and too high price of labor, LABOR IS REPLACED BY CAPITAL and that is the result of Greenspans policies

HKG SK 14:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If yen still holding onto its 111 for another 15 mins it will be a sell across the broad. ie sell Euro/US; Gbp/Us and buy us/Chf.

Kaunas DP 14:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
what was upper band for this DNT option 1.2060-1.2???
some profit taking might occur

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The bulls don’t have control of the market yet. This is a bounce that was needed for the next assault on the lows for eur/usd. I had posted before about the retracement numbers after the bounce IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 23:11 GMT March 4, 2004
I have a feeling that we are coming up on a bounce on this $ bull move. If Friday the 1.2050 area is not taken out I believe we will see a bounce for next week to the rough retracement numbers I posted earlier. Could be bloody Friday catching a lot of people with their pants down IMHO. Have plan B and C ready LOL.
Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:16 GMT March 4, 2004
One more thing before I go for a while. If tomorrow does not go the bears way and the bulls get control of the market these are some retracement numbers for a bounce on eur/usd pair. Rough numbers for eur/usd are 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2490-2510 and 1.2590-2600. As long as 1.2550-2600 area is not taken by the bulls this $ correction is still alive IMHO. BTW the daily indicators are in O/B territory so don’t be surprised on a pull back before another stab at recent lows again IMHO.

I hope it was not that bloody for most of you. Have a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side.

HKG SK 14:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone remember a 200pips up and 300pips down in one Friday???

Barcelona JP 14:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If it does trade above 1,2380, it'd go to 1,2496

Barcelona JP 14:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If eur/usd can not trade above 1,2380, I think it'll be a sell @
1,2330-1,2325. Take care.

Oakland Daimyo 14:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia--waiting for failure/ will short EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Not sure when and from exactly where at the moment but I believe this blow-off is the bulls last chance to get out.

Barcelona JP 14:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD failed @ my 1,2380 level. Be ready to short it if it can not trade above that level.

cadiz sd 14:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ = bottom to 111.03

Barcelona JP 14:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Alicante RTN 14:12 GMT March 5, 2004
Time to try a short usdjpy order?

Wait until it breaks 110,85

melbourne farmacia 14:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Looks to be 0.50% on majors - euro 1.2412 , gbp 1.8553. swiss 1.2716 and oz 0.7650.

indonesia bahari2003 14:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
what a night everyones, do we have big smile :)
there is a mith,if usd make any gain be4 NFP out it means will be USD bearish when it came out. happy trading....

London R J 14:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
once again (now that the figures are out), thanks to you all who bothered to answer my query, didn't do the deal, you all saved me a neat packet, put it this way, if we were all in a bar, I would call drinks on the house and also buy a lap dance for each one....
Anyhoo, is it now time to sell gbp for usd short??

lugano rob roy 14:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sold eu yen 137,35 s/l 138.10

Alicante RTN 14:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Time to try a short usdjpy order?

B.A. BOCA 14:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
good day all....the loonie filling the lage hole beneath it as we mentioned yesterday....

the US needs to intervene in the job market it seems!!

beijing road 14:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
SAR oder works very well fro EUR/USD at 12221/12158.

hk ab 0.66 14:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
SS, GL then.

Spotforex NY 14:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Zorro - a timely post ..again ....with your 1.2222 suggestion....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
For eur/usd next resistance level are 1.2405-10, 1.2420-25 IMHO.

EU ZORRO 14:07 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi all....

....If you bought cheap EUROS yestarday....move your stop to break even....!!!

...Have a nice weekend all...!!!

lugano rob roy 14:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
stop elected in eu$ and aud

hk ab 0.66 14:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
what I felt was the payrolls are often understated deliberately...

no one remembers that ridiculous 1k story???

Ltn th 14:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin // To amend my post of a couple of days ago. Abare quoted 73 to minerals people earlier in week but on wednesday told farmere to expect 77+ for next 18 months. Go figure!

chicago cal 14:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
took some euro profit at 1.2350 now will look for 1.2500 posted trade yesturday, however it triggered a half hour ago

gl,gt

beijing road 14:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
NY NY : haha.

Gold Coast martin 14:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LDN....all in given time the aud will DROP TO THE QUOTED LEVELS//it is not a prophecy ....

Barcelona Tony 14:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
once more Athens words of wisdom worked extremely well ... when he talked about that 400 figure move in usdchf ... brilliant, hats off Athens, very good job

Barcelona JP 14:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The ideal retracement in eur/usd is 1,2302-1,2380

HKG SK 14:01 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Today figure will give us the direction of the dollar for weeks to come. 1.2350 is the key.

Sydney censored 14:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Greased lightning as my EUR/USD buy order was lost in the mayhem. Straight on the phone to censored - they filled it within 5 minutes. Nice when platform support is obliging!

Gold Coast martin 14:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
live to fight another day...lost battle but will win war.....good fortune and congratulations to all the winners....

London 14:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin , do lyou still see aud at 73
Just a bit concerned how Dallas is going.

Ltn th 13:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne DC 13:52// Same problem. Wonder if it is our isp or quazi gbe carrier?

Barcelona JP 13:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
And now lets see what we make back home

Barcelona JP 13:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nice day, today:

+150 pips in eur/usd
+124 pips in usd/chf
+160 pips in gbp/usd

Oakland Daimyo 13:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
When the dust settles this may turn out to be a very interesting FX Friday. Retracement levels reached. Let's see if the big guns come out.

UK ELC 13:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
To the techies....are we going to see a bounce down now?

NY NY 13:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
My system is sooo bad it made me $$. I was short Euro from 1.2210..Had a stop in at BE. The platform wouldnt come up to give me a chance to even view the censored thing!! Finally when the dust settled...It not only stopped me out but put me long @1.2210... bailed at 1.2310...ONE FOR THE BOYS !!!!

Melbourne DC 13:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
can anyone advise problem on gvi forum :
Error 1135 : Can't create a new thread (errno 11). If you are not out of available memory, you can consult the manual for a possible OS-dependent bug

thanks

cadiz sd 13:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Somebody tell me about usd/jpy, please?

Chambery FR JFB 13:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Martin, for the fun... remember you saying that for Aussie to see 0.74, NFP had to have a 2 as first figure... I assume you were thinking at 5 figures after it, not 4 :-) lol Appreciate your comments, HT :-)

Oakland Daimyo 13:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW: you should have your dealing desks phone # close at hand on days like today. If you are not filled properly, complain don't just accept it.

LONDON SS 13:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
CHECK THE ARCHIVE FROM THIS MORNING PEOPLE..I AM GOD...HK SEE YA!!!

PAR 13:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Every first year student in economics (contrary to CNBC economists ) understands that with too low price of capital and too high price of labor, LABOR IS REPLACED BY CAPITAL and that is the result of Greenspans policies.

Chambery FR JFB 13:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw and imvho it looks like we are testing the technical limits of platforms with those so much awaited numbers... I was still able to place limits on my orders 5 min after the numbers were out, and they are just right now in the processing... pretty frightening... Brokers definitely have to improve on that matter... again, imho :-) Happy trades

hk ab 0.66 13:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
btw, the chf limit 1.2750 is not filled yet.

Time for new position on dlr/cad at 100 dma.

lugano rob roy 13:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sold also aussie 0.7566 sl 0.7615

hk ab 0.66 13:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The true smiling people are the japs....

filled eur/jpy short 137
eur/gbp .6723 on limits.

There's a traffic jam on the computer of my side.

Revdax, GL with your Macau index.

Pecs Andras 13:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BOJ must be spending an awful lot to keep the 111 from falling

lugano rob roy 13:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sold eu$ 1.2320 s/l 1.2380 bought $chf at 1.2805 s/l 1.2710

CT DB 13:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 13:35 GMT,
I have a smile the size of the grand fukc'n canyon!

Chambery FR JFB 13:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 13:35 GMT March 5, 2004
Yes... when the platform finally recovers and executes orders/limits :-)

Algarve Box 13:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FRA Gustav 13:35 GMT March 5, 2004
Yes, Gustav. I'm happy.
My strategy: "In Forex,the water always pass more than one time under the bridge" works ;)
PS-Ok, this have some advantages... in the next days the forum will be calm and without the last days sporadic 'prophets'.

Sydney bl 13:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
thanks guys i have closed my short position just before 1:30, -20pip I think it's not that bad atleast, special thanks to LONDON SS, what we do now can we still long

hk revdax 13:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Lonely are those at the bottom...The Macau indicator is so far the best one i have ever seen...

melbourne farmacia 13:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 13:18 GMT March 5, 2004
no ! LOL

Nottingham 13:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
euro...1.2256 target for last account of euro longs met...now all flat...watching 1.2330/50 which is key...massive short covering if broken, otherwise baers prob ok for next week...gl gt

FRA Gustav 13:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Are there smiling people around?

warsaw mach 13:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
my dimond works. so we can see 1,24 according to this

warsaw mach 13:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
my dimond works. so we can see 1,24 according to this

warsaw mach 13:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
my dimond works. so we can see 1,24 according to this

Rivonia PipPirate 13:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
OUTERVENTION?

Pecs Andras 13:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
U.S. FEB NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 21,000 VS 130,000 EXPECTED

U.S. FEB. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY AT 5.6%

hk ab 0.66 13:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Tony, best dessert of Fri!

London R J 13:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nice advise guys, I guess you lot have somewhat calmed me down on this one, appreciate all your inputs whatever the outcome may be...no regrets
many thanks

Barcelona Tony 13:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
WTFFFFFFFFFFFF

lodz andy 13:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
warsaw mach: there is something resembling diamond on 5 min chart and the odds are for a spike higher imo cheers

Alicante RTN 13:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Late ticks indicate a possible negative surpise in US numbers

Nottingham 13:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
UK ELC 13:10 GMT March 5, 2004
Whatever direction What is the best pair for maximum pips?

If bad taken badly I think usdcad might impress on downside...much stops here and technical patterns suggest 1.3140/50 a possibility, data allowing...gl gt

Barcelona Tony 13:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
pennant on $chf 5 minutes .... leading th massive $ drop ??!?!?!?!??!?!

warsaw mach 13:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I may be wrong but I see dimond formation on EUR/USD. Does that mean thet we can see higher levels? Even if we go up I don't want to buy EUR. If I'm right I'll sell on higher levels

London R J 13:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Livingstone nh,
many thanks for your input, will wait and see....

Newcastle GH 13:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
London R J

GBP as a baptism of fire is gutsy!

Barcelona JP 13:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
UK ELC 13:10 GMT March 5, 2004
Whatever direction What is the best pair for maximum pips?

CABLE, I think.

London R J 13:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
still waiting .........

Livingston nh 13:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
R J - even if you knew the exact data ahead of the market you can't know the market reaction - don't trade the numbers

Cable still looks weaker on the charts to below 181 but s/t here you could get whiplash

hk revdax 13:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:13 //Should i buy $/CHF below 129 or your pressure point? TIA

Pecs Andras 13:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
London R J 13:11 GMT March 5, 2004
I would not do that before the data is out and the dust settles. The number is pretty unpredictable, so we are likely to see huge swing that can eat up stops quickly
But it is your money and your trade

London HC 13:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab. More like 1.2050

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello, everyone should have plans B and C ready at hand. Have orders already filled (remember the platform will freeze for most of the people out on the buy or sell frenzy) IMHO. GL GT to everyone.

hk ab 0.66 13:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I think viies have given us a v. gd hint this morning and that is the China 1.2160 DNT....

Malaga boqueron 13:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GBPJPY

melbourne farmacia 13:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Regardless of jobs data today, intraday shorts should cover above 1.2220 euro & swissy longs below 1.2900, these read as pressure points in my book.

London R J 13:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
In this forum I am what you might call a backbencher... always on to it but never had the guts to speculate. Need help here, please advice if selling GBP for USD buy is a good short term Idea just about now (before 13.30 gmt) real money this time..
Appreciate your inputs

UK ELC 13:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Whatever direction What is the best pair for maximum pips?

Barcelona JP 12:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HI, EVERYBODY

Like to repost what I said 6 hours ago:

Barcelona JP 06:49 GMT March 5, 2004
Hi to all!!!!

If payrolls do not change the map, this is my forecast for today:

eur/usd is a sell below 1,2140. No man's land between 1,2140-1,2240/60.
Usd/jPY resistence @ 111.50/80. Can trade back to 110.70/80

gbp/usd isa sell below 1,8160-50. No man's land between 1,8160-1,8250.

USD/CHF could reach today 1.3080/1.3150

WITH NFP allowance, we'll see how my CAT system works.



hk ab 0.66 12:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
revdax, eur/gbp is recoiling.

FRA Gustav 12:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin // I hope that the bleeding people of the recent week managed to reach the shore, as the sharks are hungry because the action less last few days…:)

Pecs Andras 12:54 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Last time there was an immediate upward surge of 100+pips a few seconds before 13:30
SO get ready and fasten seatbelts!

london 12:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GVI John

Thankyou for confirming

Gold Coast martin 12:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HK..ab....perhaps sharks in the water again...

GVI john 12:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Not sure this was a COMPLETE denial. Isn't he in line to be the next PM?

hk revdax 12:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Any buyers of euro out there before the news? TIA

GVI john 12:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Re Brown: That is my view also and what I meant to say.

london 12:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GVI John

I was thinking that Brown would be more inclined to keep the pound once he is a position to do so.
Interesting its been dismissed already, just testing the waters perhaps...

GVI john 12:40 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
London please explain. BTW, the UK government is just now dismissing this report.

hk ab 0.66 12:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
fishes see the prey twice in the past.......

thought the same multi-hundred guns appear again in eur after data......

Then.........

Sydney alimin 12:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
early selling action for eur/usd ahead of data?

london 12:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GVI John, please could you explain this? surely its the opposite right?

"Keep in mind that Brown is the leading “eurosceptic” in the government. That is bad news at the margin for those of us who would like to see the pound preserved."

GVI john 12:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2205…$/yen 111.10
DJIA -8 pts… 10-yr 4.04%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
The focus today is the February U.S. employment report. I have no insight on the data other than to say even if this is a strong report that the Fed is not likely to take notice until there has been a string of outsized increases and that these data have been consistently underperforming. Personally, I think the 40% odds Fed funds futures place on a June 30 rate hike are on the high side. The Fed will be doing all it can to avoid changing policy in the July-October period because they will not like to inject themselves into the Presidential campaign.

I’ve heard that the Bank of Japan has been in buying the $/yen today and that they would be happy with a 110-115 range. Their intervention has been working better with the markets on the defensive in the $/yen. In the U.K., there has been speculation that Chancellor Brown could take the IMF presidency. Keep in mind that Brown is the leading “eurosceptic” in the government. That is bad news at the margin for those of us who would like to see the pound preserved.

The markets seem to be out on a limb again with the U.S. employment report on Friday’s open. The forecast of experts is for an increase in jobs of about 125,000. If you have been following the “whisper number” in recent months, then you would have been badly burned. Keep in mind that the range of error on this data series very wide. I would say +/- 150,000 in non-farm payrolls in any given month, so any outcome is possible, but the bias has been towards weakness recently and that bias is slow to change.
CALENDAR
FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +122,000 in Jan, see +125,000
Unemployment Rate: vs. 5.6% in Jan, see 5.6%

hk ab 0.66 12:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, previous support 100 dma now at 1.2255.

indonesia bahari2003 12:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
any number up to 125 k it will be sign of dollars night, but below that numbers IMHO will pain for dollar.

France Lucky Strike 12:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LONDON SS 12:10 GMT March 5, 2004
You could be right. In the other hand the dollar charts are still lightly bullish, so I don't think it is so obvious that we'll see a massive sell of dollar. Anyway I will follow the trend but I won't be surprise to see 1.21 tonight.

Sydney bl 12:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LONDON SS
thank you for your comment, I do agree you have a very good point, I will be very careful with my position, thanks lot, and also thanks to all of you out there who's try to help me, good luck to you all

hk ab 0.66 12:21 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
guess people are still bleeding from the eur long at 1.25-1.26....

hk ab 0.66 12:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
right now, on eur 1.22 line.

hk ab 0.66 12:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
SS, then, suggest you to long 10M on your CAPS confidence....

Nottingham 12:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl>>>>>one thing to think about is if euro around current levels when payrolls come out, your stop which I presume is 50-100 pips above your entry is likely to be hit on a kneejerk reaction to a weakish number, so even if the market reverses and heads lower it will be no use to you...imo relying on economic data to get you out of trouble is not a successful longterm strategy simply because you are going to get surprises...gl gt

warsaw mach 12:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
London SS: I also think that market is looking for very good numbers (on CNBC some guy was saying 400K!?!?!?) but even if we see 100K we will see a lot of USD buyers

LONDON SS 12:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sydney bl

i would be very worried with your eur/usd short position, the payroll figure out in under 90 minutes WILL not be as high as expected, my information tells me that 130,000-135,000 is the consensus BUT up to 175,000 is already priced into dollar crosses. I WILL BE A MAJOR MAJOR DOLLAR BEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CLEAN UP IN THE PROCESS I HOPE!!!

Sydney bl 12:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
thank you very much Dr Qindex, your comment always very helpful

Melbourne Qindex 12:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl 11:59 GMT - You should be okay, don't worry!

Sydney bl 11:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex what's your view on EUR/USD I have a short position from 121.70, any comment what shall do now, thanks

hk revdax 11:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Q//i am quite lonely at the top...

FRA Gustav 11:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I do not know what the payroll data will bring out later today, but FX markets are currently only for those who can handle explosives.
It looks like 100's pips day...looks like but at least someone will cash lot of money today...!!!


Take care all of you, good luck and good trading.

Melbourne Qindex 11:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 11:52 GMT - I am bias on a strong dollar.

hk revdax 11:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:49//Are you inclined to be long or short $ today?

Melbourne Qindex 11:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 11:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 11:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:52 GMT March 5, 2004
AUD/USD : 3-Day Cycle Quantised Levels


... 0.7145 ... 0.7273 ... 0.7402 // 0.7465 - 0.7528 - 0.7592 // ...

UB Tulga 11:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
8:30 AM

UK ELC 11:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What time is data expected?

hk ab 0.66 11:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
dlrcad real funny, nt.

melbourne farmacia 11:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 11:14 GMT March 5, 2004
Dollar could be king for weeks, but for now, note 18th march as a possible retracement area/ or end of retracement.
will post more info as dates approach if i'm around.

UB Tulga 11:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
payroll number expects to see 145,000. with unemployment 5.7%. What would happen on long EUR/USD position? Please

Pecs Andras 11:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ALl around I am reading of an exp. 125-123K number.
Last month 112K was disappointing to the market and htere was a large seloff. So the same might happen again because the earlier indicators do not suggest anything beyond this number.
So I will keep my finger on the sell dollar button at around data time

hk ab 0.66 11:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
let's start.

Ldn 11:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Charting Europe: Aussie Dollar Best Seen As A Sell
Trading the downside in the Aussie dollar still looks by far the best bet, even though it has already fallen heavily.
In the last three weeks it has suffered a loss of more than 7% against the U.S. dollar, surrendering all its gains for the year and marking a decisive reversal in the medium-term trend.
Technically, Thursday was an inside day, when the traded range fell within Wednesday's. Often this pattern marks a crossroads - a key technical juncture - and the direction of the breakout is an important signal.
If the Aussie breaks lower, it's a high-probability, low-risk sell opportunity.
. I favor the short side because the sharp decline from key technical resistance - the Feb. 18 high of US$0.8006 - to Wednesday's US$0.7395 intraday low is impulsive in nature. That means the bounce from there back to Thursday's intraday high looks merely to be a short-term correction higher in a downtrend. For sellers, the next target on the way down is US$0.7395 - last Wednesday's low - then the US$0.7330-US$0.7319 support zone where the Dec. 11 and Dec. 22 lows come in.
Axel Rudolf

Bloomberg,
and Reuters



warsaw mach 11:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   

12:14 05Mar2004 RTRS-SCHROEDER SAYS DELIGHED ABOUT RECENT DOLLAR DROP

QC WC 11:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, thanks! Till Mar 18 only Mar 8 is minor cycle date?

IST Sez 11:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   

SCHROEDER SAYS NO ONE WANTS TO CHALLENGE ECB'S INDEPENDENCE

SCHROEDER SAYS SEES INCREASING SIGNS ECONOMIC UPTURN BEING BOOSTED BY DOMESTIC DEMAND
.Reuters

melbourne farmacia 11:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 04:30 GMT March 5, 2004
Thanks for email, will reply next day or so.

beijing road 05:09 GMT March 5, 2004
Evening road, US dollar pairs only ie euro / cable / swiss etc..
Dollar should be king until 18 march with minor cycle swings in between.

QC WC 10:29 GMT March 5, 2004
On the dot WC . Data is not important regarding cycles. GT

melbourne farmacia 11:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 04:30 GMT March 5, 2004
Thanks for email, will reply next day or so.

beijing road 05:09 GMT March 5, 2004
Evening road, US dollar pairs only ie euro / cable / swiss etc..
Dollar should be king until 18 march with minor cycle swings in between.

QC WC 10:29 GMT March 5, 2004
On the dot WC . Data is not important regarding cycles. GT

hk ab 0.66 11:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
short half.

hk ab 0.66 11:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
eur 1/2 eur/jpy 135.60

hk ab 0.66 11:03 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
sorry should read .6723

hk ab 0.66 11:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
gipme some more higher eur/gbp please.
place order .6923 now.

hk ab 0.66 10:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If BOJ sets in and join the party softly, things would be totally different and interesting tonight.

ln 10:56 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
How many on this forum actually close out poss at the end of the week?

Newcastle GH 10:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc
That's an interesting post. It might explain some of those times you think you've got it right only to be caught out by a reversal - profit takers after the corect move!

Tallinn viies 10:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas DP 10:32 - yes, 1,1980 with +/- 20 pips.

hk revdax 10:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:39 //The Macau people seem to confirm your suspicion.

Nottingham 10:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:39 GMT March 5, 2004

It is not the numbers that counts but how the market reacts to the numbers that counts..


Following on from bc's good point that strong/weak number doesn't necessarily translate into same for dollar...as with last month's figure, although headline wasn't too tragic, market chose to focus on components + revisions to prev month which were poor...also now have to have one eye on next week so new lows aren't likely to be followed through too heavily since market will have to fulfill technicals next week i.e selling at the low of week near to close means you need to be prepared for rebound next week...you might be lucky and get early follow through but fact remains that current week's range will be traded next week so that will factor into r/r and is likely to hinder further downside following any reaction low on new low...gl gt

hk ab 0.66 10:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
btw, martin, my bias on aud is the same as yours but just wonder what coudl be the driver to .72 tonight.... seems seriously, this will not be easy provided so many options underneath.

fwiw, I am holding a .70 and .7050 put options bearing big profit.

hk ab 0.66 10:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, maybe we can consider some cad crosses.

like long aud/cad, eurcad.

hk ab 0.66 10:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:39 GMT March 5, 2004


thank you.

ln 10:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Any views on cable?

Nottingham Daniel 10:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well, it is Friday finally and the key, potentially market-moving payroll number is here finally. Consensus expects to see a number around 130,000. Our expectations are for 150,000, with unemployment steady near 5.6%.

Taken from Fx-Trader

shanghai bc 10:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   

It is not the numbers that counts but how the market reacts to the numbers that counts..Thta gives some comfort to those who are not privy to the numbers already..But given the hefty rise of Dollar this week,more likely scenario is profit taking sets in on good news after initial jump of prices, which is a normal reaction..If the numbers are bad,profit taking may kick in faster, which is normal too..If the number is good and Dollar rises till the end of NY session without correction,some folks may be privy to much better news to come in coming days..Least likely scenario is ,numbers are bad and Dollar still rises..But correction this week or next week,it is unlikely to stop Dollar firmly moving into Usd/Chf 1.30-.1.35 region in this round..Fwiw

hk ab 0.66 10:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
viies// just a thought.:)

Martin//I am looking at this little naughty bird, dlrcad.

However, yen crosses may give us more surprise more than the majors. And next week is definitely v. impt for yen crosses.

hk ab 0.66 10:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
if payroll is not bad, thinking about long dlr/jpy 111.05.
but all depends how this pans out.

hong kong nt 10:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 10:29 -- good for cooling down the speculation a bit before second bull wave starts in May...

Kaunas DP 10:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:30 GMT
still targeting 1,1970 for this week?

Gold Coast martin 10:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HONG KONG ab...what is your view on the next seesion?

Tallinn viies 10:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 - why? I would better use product where liquidity is biggest. there swaps, options and forwards for hedging .
why to use index?

hk ab 0.66 10:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt// sorry, I don't trade stock

hk ab 0.66 10:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
viies, I think a more accurate proposal is using dlr index rather than eur itself.

hong kong nt 10:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- long hang seng at 13318, any comment?

Tallinn viies 10:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas DP 10:29 - Im sdhort from 2 days ago

Makati Obelix 10:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Andras of Pec, previous payroll # is 112K

hk ab 0.66 10:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, someone short hkd large.

Kaunas DP 10:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 10:25 GMT
have u shorted eur/usd already or waiting for better levels intraday - TIA

QC WC 10:29 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, minor cycle date is plus/minus a day or on the dot?
Just asking as seem Mon no important data to move market.

melbourne farmacia 02:33 GMT March 5, 2004
RE : last post, sorry wrong date, correct minor cycle is 08/03. gt

hong kong nt 10:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- reverse dlr/chf at 1.277, what do you think? good trades...

Tallinn viies 10:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FWIW
Reuters: Deutsche, which looks for euro/dollar to move towards $1.20 near term, says
corrections within trends have been a common occurrence for the dollar over the
past 30 years. Over that period there have been about 18 corrections of 5 pct
or more during a multi-year up- or downtrend in the dollar. The average
magnitude of corrections has been 14 pct for dollar/mark. "If the current
correction were to conform to the historical average, the euro would have to
fall to $1.11, before the dollar downtrend resumed," it says. Deutsche sees
euro/yen at $1.35 at year end.

France Lucky Strike 10:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd could be good to sell again if it doesn't recover the situation soon...

Pecs Andras 10:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Guys
Anybody remembers what the last payroll number was, actual and expected?
There was a large selloff of USD when the optimistic +200K number was not met, right?

France Lucky Strike 10:22 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
close long eur/usd 15 pips, hard resistance around 1.2215, I find the market very capricious

hk ab 0.66 10:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
guess which major will show the sign first.....

I think dlrcad. followed by dlrchf.

HONG KONG Ray 10:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What do you guys idea after those fig. released about tonights trend,gl and gt to all.

France Lucky Strike 10:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Thanx mate , same for me.

Gold Coast martin 10:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I wish you all luck with the forthcoming session....and may we all have a profitable session....g/l g/t

Nottingham 10:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 0.66 09:57 GMT

4 today have 9954 o/s for aud cad with secondary at 9865...coincidentally both happen to fall with a few pips of key fibos...gl gt

Kaunas DP 10:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
finally beast has got legs ... LOL

Gold Coast martin 10:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HK ab..lets just say it is at the second figure....and it is not all my money....i wish it was.....

hk ab 0.66 09:57 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
aud/cad so v. serious o/s in chart...

I am thinking about long some after aud makes a temp. bottom..


Which I hope to see the aud/cad makes a double top before trend reversal.

hk ab 0.66 09:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Martin, once you mentioned if we know the position that you hold, we will know the effect.

SO may I ask you how large normally your transactiono are in in aussie?

10M or 100M?

TIA. Am just curious to know.

hk ab 0.66 09:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The most important thing on my position is a firm break of 1.34 on dlr/cad and it will guide the rest to move in the direction I favour.

Gold Coast martin 09:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
newbie....good posting...it is interesting that when URIDASHI DEALS are mentioned they are mentioned as an artificial stimulant to boost the dollar..no one can substantiate how many and how much are in the pipeline....and figures of issuance are officially published at a later time...its as if they are used selectively as a stimulant every time the dollar needs to be propped up in the absence of other fundamentals...If only people knew the true state of uridashi deals and the figures that are really fact then they would have a change of heart in relation to its direct effect on the aud....

Ldn 09:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin well thats my feeling also , the aussie is a strange ccy to trade as you well know its like a moody woman , it will follow the Euro until further info appears and that is at the wim of the Dollar , these numbers have to be bloody good today for the Dollar to continue (I hope they are for all of us)

SA Newbie 09:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
SomAussie is hovering around 0.7500 against the USD. As with the broader market,
AUD/USD is relatively steady ahead of the day"s key event risk, the NFP"s. Just
a 0.7495/0.7527 range has panned out so far.
With RBA rates off the agenda (until April 6 at least), all things US are
likely to be the main driver in the sessions ahead. Today, of course, a 200k
number would likely to work to continue the USD positive sentiment. Meanwhile,
the SMH reports that Australia"s trade deal with the US is in danger of
foundering in Parliament. Concerns are mounting over medical costs, access to
the US agricultural markets and the protraction of domestic cultural industries.
For now, Japanese and local buying has been seen around the 0.7500 area, the
former purportedly linked to fresh Uridashi issues in the pipeline. Some stops,
however, are tipped below 0.7490 and 0.7480.
Technically, daily stochastics are threatening to turn higher after a base
was laid earlier in the week at 0.7405 (March 3 low). However, we will continue
to stick with the recent downtrend and sell rallies while price holds below
initial fibo resistance at 0.7630 (38.2% of 0.8005/0.7405 move) and the 10-day
moving average, last at 0.7655.e more thoughts on Aud for Gep and Martin from IFR

Gold Coast martin 09:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LDN...there is merit in what you are saying...i guess the bottom line is that we need to see something with 2 in front of the payroll figures in order for the aud to break 74 and go down to 7350 as i previously posted....

Bristol/UK Stag 09:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Good moring. Am I right in thinking that Friday afternoons (GMT) are generally a dollar sell off time? Tks

Ldn 09:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin I do think you have to be a little prepared for the numbers to be so so , and if thats the case Aussie will not break through 74 , just a thought.

Gold Coast martin 09:27 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LDN...thanks for the report ....i am in same boat as dallas....

France Lucky Strike 09:25 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 09:04 GMT March 5, 2004
Sorry again, I've confused 1.2235 and 1.2335, I'm grave actually! just woke up and it's friday! our target is barely the same. I need a black coffee!

Ldn 09:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD is consolidating just above 0.7490/7500 with 0.7555 the top. Hourly studies rolling over again and another assault on the downside is on the cards intraday. 0.7400 is key on the downside with the 61.8% fibo at 0.7460 seen ahead. Looking for selling opportunities again as the daily trend studies continue to tick south ignoring oversold levels.

Dallas, though you may be intersted in this Ifr report if your still holding shorts.

France Lucky Strike 09:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 09:04 GMT March 5, 2004
Sorry I've read 1.2135 instead of 1.2235....
Well, 1.2235 , why not. Personnaly I do very short strike and I will close my position as soon as the 5 minutes MACD tells me to do so and I'm pretty sure that will happen before 1.2235

France Lucky Strike 09:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 09:04 GMT March 5, 2004

I bet that if we test the highest points again, it will be to break them. We have to see how it's doing but I target something like 1.2150/60 first. I could also liquidate at 1.2135 if it shows signs of weakness

Kaunas DP 09:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas DP 09:02 GMT March 5, 2004
long cable 1,8185

target for +100 pips min

london cam 09:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
closed AUDUSD shorts from yesterday with tiny profit as bias currently up.

Quebec YQB 09:04 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
France Lucky Strike

If it happens to go our way, what's your TP? Mine is 1.2235

Kaunas DP 09:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
long cable 1,8185

France Lucky Strike 09:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Quebec YQB 08:55 GMT March 5, 2004
Yes, but I will feel good only above 1.22

Quebec YQB 08:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
France Lucky Strike

looks like its good we went long!

France Lucky Strike 08:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Sorry, yes, you're not Raden.
I'm long now. As said "mister MONACO" , euro may have finish its retracement and threre was a strong support at 1.2170 . Moreover, euro held well despite usd/jpy Up and gbp Down , could be a sign....

Nottingham Daniel 08:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:43 GMT March 5, 2004

Ask Jay for my email - then you may ask such questions - as this is a Forex Forum I would not like to go further in this area - with respect!

Paris Mikle 08:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
We have recently opened new clear site with forum about forex:
www.cashemit.com
Specific outlook on eur/usd can be found there.

Ldn 08:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel
what part of yorkshire?

Nottingham Daniel 08:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw Brysio 08:35 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona,

Could you give any link to description to point of balance oscillator ?

I don't think JP mentioned PBO indicator it was me - if you would like is then ask Jay for my email and I will send it to you - but you must have the same platform!

France Lucky Strike 08:41 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
went long as well 1.2186, stop under 1.2170, good risk reward from here...

FRA Gustav 08:40 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
What will happen if payrolls data not start with 2?

Quebec YQB 08:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/USD @1.2184

indonesia bahari2003 08:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
France lucky strike-I am Bahari not Raden. how about sell eur/usd at 1.2205 level for 1.2170 stop at 1.2215 ? I just need more warming up be4 NFP tonight. LOL

France Lucky Strike 08:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Euro should have fallen clearly from here and it's not the case...it's too hesitating...
That smells the smoky up strike....IMO

Warsaw Brysio 08:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona,

Could you give any link to description to point of balance oscillator ?

Kaunas DP 08:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
whats your cable view for today - TIA

Barcelona JP 08:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 08:26 GMT March 5, 2004
Barcelona JP

I don't know if you have the same platform, but I am using the point of balance oscillator - it seems to work very well with my style of trading

Which platform?

Nottingham Daniel 08:31 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 08:26 GMT March 5, 2004

I only work from Nott - I am from Yorkshire -

France Lucky Strike 08:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
Target could be 1.2130/50 if 1.2170 breaks(strong rebellion of yesterday)..I .put a stop at breakeven 1.2190

Ldn 08:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel
hi what part of nottinghlam are you from

Nottingham Daniel 08:26 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP

I don't know if you have the same platform, but I am using the point of balance oscillator - it seems to work very well with my style of trading

indonesia bahari2003 08:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
closed eur/usd at 1.2180 for 1.2215 (be4 1.2220-missed).
hello France lucky strike, I m with you for short euro, any idea for the next level?

Nottingham Daniel 08:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank – Take For Today

US-job data expected to be better than expected 5th March, 2004

EUR USD (1.2210) The euro’s mini roller coaster movements with the
two extremes at 1.2135 and 1.2240 yesterday is not only a sign of the highly
perceived prevailing uncertainty, but also gives evidence that the market was
dominated by short-term traders. Although there were ample fundamental
reasons to make trading decisions, they just had in mind to pick the bottom
and to sell these positions after a quick gain. In this context both the ECB’s
decision to leave rates unchanged and the release of the German
unemployment data came as no surprise or had only minor a impact.
Of course, the market’s attention is focused on today’s US employment
report, where traders already take disappointment into consideration if the
numbers only hit the consensus forecast. Even ‘better than expected’
Nonfarm Payrolls already seem to be discounted. From this perspective it
seems improbable for many speculators that the dollar will continue its
advance. As a result a euro recovery seems unavoidable for a smart brain
thinking always one step ahead. Subsequently, traders will attack the market
from the long side, and if any quick profits are to be made, they might be
realised at the risk-reward level of our current bearish scenario at 1.2265,
although we anticipate even better offers at 1.2295/10. However, we do not
expect the euro to stabilise unless 1.2365/70 is overtaken. In the meantime
we adhere to our current targets at 1.2010 and 1.1955 (modified).

Barcelona JP 08:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If it breaks 1,2140, will see a sell-off to 1.2060.

Barcelona JP 08:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
My forecast is working!!!!!!!

MONACO OGA 08:07 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 05/03
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2195), same level as yesterday's opening. The pair consolidated inside 1,2150-1,2240 with poor german employment figures, Eurozone economic growth decelerating while US figures were in line with expectations. As expected , rates were left unchanged by ECB and BOE. Closing in NY was around 1,2190. Overnight the pair hovered inside 1,2182-1,2218. We believe that the market has completed its retracement pattern (1,2930-1,2058) and is consolidating before higher again. Talk of a double no touch option 1,2050-1,2650 was written for a good amount. Focus today will be US change in Non Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate. For today we would like to go long around 1,2100 (stop below 1,2000) for a break of 1,2220 and a target of 1,2375. Overall we are neutral on the medium term with a bullish bias.

Data out today:

EZ retail trade Dec M/M expected -0,6% 10.00 GMT
US non farm payrolls Feb expected 130K 13.30 GMT
US unemployment rate Feb expected 5,6% 13.30 GMT
US consumer credit Jan M/M expected 5Bio 20.00 GMT

Gold around 393,50 , with WTI April at 36,78.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 111,15) moved another step forward . Support for the day at 110,80 while resistance should appear above of 111,50.
EUR/JPY (currently 135,40) was rejected overnight ahead of 136 resistance.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8210) hedging lower, with long positions still unfolding, and 1,8150 looking to attract the market.
EURGBP (0,6690) heading higher and reflecting GBP weakness. Although oversold chartwise, we still believe EUR/GBP could easily visit the 0,6530 zone. Resistance for today around 0,6720.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

France Lucky Strike 08:02 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Short euro, open target, stop 1.2210

Melbourne Qindex 07:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

warsaw mach 07:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
anyone interested in european exotic ccy pls consider selling EUR/PLN at 4.82 and higher. Target 4.70.

Ldn Hat 07:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more GBP/USD at 1.8235 stop 1.8350 target 1.8150 Thanks IMHO

hk ab 0.66 07:40 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
some pal mentioned a free fall in eur/jpy......

bet this might happen next week....to 120 straight?

Nottingham Daniel 07:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GoodMorning All

Todays events: (GMT)

5 Mar. 04 05:00 Overall Household Spending (MoM) (Japan)
5 Mar. 04 05:00 Leading Economic Index (Japan)
5 Mar. 04 06:45 GDP (Annualized QoQ) (Switzerland)
5 Mar. 04 08:30 Budget Deficit (Sweden)
5 Mar. 04 09:00 Industrial Production (Norway)
5 Mar. 04 13:30 Unemployment Rate (US)
5 Mar. 04 13:30 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (US)
5 Mar. 04 13:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (US)
5 Mar. 04 13:30 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (US)
5 Mar. 04 13:30 Average Weekly Hours (US)
5 Mar. 04 20:00 Consumer Credit (US)

Helsinki iw 07:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Obviously the NFP number the key driver today, but also story
hitting newswires that Citi may be contemplating to bid for
Deutsche. If it turns out to be accurate, that should prop up
the euro. Have a good day everyone.

hong kong nt 07:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hang seng wave count

A(1) 14039-13744
A(2) 13744-13848
A(3) 13848-13290 (gap filled)
A(4) 13290-13550*
A(5) 13550*-13050*

*estimates

res level to monitor

upside gap 13544-13564, 50% 13569, 38% 13503

implications
1. short term upside bias for 13500, unless 13290 broken
2. above 13500 is a sell, unless 13600 broken

hong kong nt 07:17 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- yup, c9 cut euro and chf long at 1.21,1.30, i bought small dlr/cad at your level too, just wonder if i may buy more at 1.325...

Manama MT 07:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Good day to u chaps
I blocked my profit on my euro put option till the US figure released. Just to remind you to watch out of todays false movements. Friday+US figure will create good environment for stops hunting. I think trading after the figure is much reasonable than entering before.. It is long to wait but it is considered a profitable position if u r unsure. Good luck.

hk ab 0.66 07:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, I like my cad v. much, seeing the repulsion now recharging for new north march.

hk ab 0.66 07:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt, you meant those C9 cut loss on their longs eur, short chf?


Seems there will be more downside then...... very tough luck for them to experience trendreversal at these moments.

indonesia bahari2003 07:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
hello all, be4 the busy day return let sell eur/usd at 1.2220 target 1.2180 stop at 1.2240. I think we need warming up!

hong kong nt 06:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- many c9 cut loss at 1.21 euro, 1.30 chf, food for thoughts...

Melbourne Qindex 06:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Tallinn viies 06:51 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!

new day but trade ideas same.
let the selling begin!

Barcelona JP 06:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!!!!

If payrolls do not change the map, this is my forecast for today:

eur/usd is a sell below 1,2140. No man's land between 1,2140-1,2240/60.
Usd/jPY resistence @ 111.50/80. Can trade back to 110.70/80

gbp/usd isa sell below 1,8160-50. No man's land between 1,8160-1,8250.

USD/CHF could reach today 1.3080/1.3150

Dallas GEP 06:42 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
DP I can't get my charts up. I am leaving soon where I am at and I will be getting back on here after I get to new location.

Dallas GEP 06:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well Martin, I would hope so!! LOL

Kaunas DP 06:38 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 06:36 GMT
do u see smth longy for cable - TIA

Gold Coast martin 06:37 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Dallas gep,,......the plan for aud is the same as yesterday only to ececute after payroll data....g/l g/t

Dallas GEP 06:36 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. Just checking prior to London, Still on them Aussie Shorts but that is all that is open for now.

Melbourne Qindex 06:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


Mfld JM 06:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Lahore Rk 05:32 GMT
cbet.com is what you're looking for.

Gold Coast martin 06:19 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
LONDON...citygroup technicals on aud are spot on for the next 3 sessions....

Melbourne Qindex 06:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

GER ad 06:14 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY,
out at 135.73

London 06:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD bearish short term, with downside risk enhanced after fall below 55-day moving average (was 0.7671) for first time since last September, based on technical analysis, says Citigroup; pegs initial major support at 0.7320, but short-term downside target 0.7041; initial major resistance 0.7530
Reuters.

Lahore RK 06:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
brisbane sunstate 05:44 thanks for the information . i am checking this site


hk ab 0.66 06:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Revdax, Macausian short dlr now??

hk revdax 05:58 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
FW CS 05:11 //if i had to do something, i would.

brisbane sunstate 05:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Lahore Rk 05:32
not sure if this is what you are looking for
http://www.igindex.co.uk/
gl

Gold Coast martin 05:43 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
SING...sorry posted wron figure

Ldn 05:35 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Schroders Investment Management strategist Simon Doyle. recommends taking profits on any AUD/USD hedges on any renewed rise.

Lahore Rk 05:32 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Some body told me about bet on the markets --any site to know about what is it and how it works

GL/GT

hong kong nt 05:23 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- eur/gbp approaches .672, time to short again for .660 again, stop .676...

sing 05:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
If you short $Yen @ 108, you're 300 pips in red, how can you take profiit?

LAX-LGB SNP 05:18 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
eurusd steady but eurjpy higher ... gbpusd steady but gbpjpy higher - seems the usual jokers are anticipating another sell-off

Gold Coast martin 05:15 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HK SK...I DID SHORT AT 108 AND MY FEELING IS TO TAKE PROFIT AND WAIT...your opinion re-enforced my thoughts.....thank you very much for your opinion....

FW CS 05:11 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Revdax so you suggesting short $ today?

beijing road 05:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 02:33 GMT March 5, 2004
RE : last post, sorry wrong date, correct minor cycle is 08/03. gt


Sir, for which pair plz?

Londo 05:09 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Australian housing finance expected to fall 3% in January from December, shows consensus forecast of 20 economists surveyed this would add to prevailing market view that housing sector cooling

hk revdax 05:01 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
When people in general become bullish on $, the Macau speculators seem doing the opposite.

HKG SK 04:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin
I have to know at what level did you short $/Yen first. If it is at 108 I would take partial profit now and wait. I still believe Yen will go to 115-118 level, obviously Euro have to go with it too. I have a lot of reasons to believe in this. It will take me hours to tell you why but in short Japan's economy cannot sustain this high Yen level any more.

Saigon 04:39 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I'm investment in Yen. I just read the post about the USD/YEN. Some one say the Yen will stop at 111.4 and some other one say it will down to 115 or even 118 in next 2 weeks. So in what indicator to make it hapen like what you think?

Saigon 04:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Hi Everyone, I'm a new member in this forum,

Singapore Sfx 04:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
farmacia,
If around - sent you some mail, mate.

hk ab 0.66 03:53 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt// if dlr/cad passes 1.34 and close above it will be a close above 200 dma the first time in weekend.

hk ab 0.66 03:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
nt// I think the bototm will be formed above 1.33 line....

charts said so That's why I put my entry at 1.3333, but everything is possible.

now long 1.3333, 1.3380, 1.34

Gold Coast martin 03:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HONK KONG SK...i am long on the usd/jpy...should i short my position and if not what level do you think i should close my position?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 03:28 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I think eur/usd is undecided for now.has been hovering in a small range for now.I am looking for a BB breakout for getting into any trade and till then am just going to keep watching.

TIA:-)

hong kong nt 03:13 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
ab -- buy dlr/cad at 1.328, what do you think?

HKG SK 03:01 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
I think $/Yen is going to strenghten from now upto 115 or even 118 witnin 2 weeks. Do not short this pair unless you have 8000 billion dollar in your pocket that is what BOJ have right now.

hk ab 0.66 02:52 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
better short dlr/jpy at that 200 dma with tight s/l.

Think the gap should help on the first attack.

QC WC 02:50 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
HK AB, are you long Usd/Yen?

hk ab 0.66 02:49 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
lvl to watch for dlr/jpy 112.18 200 dma.

Gen dk 02:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

indonesia bahari2003 02:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
morning forum, will usd/jpy strike to 112.92 to fill price gap surrounding september G7 meeting ?

Melbourne Qindex 02:44 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
The projected profiles of my monthly cycle posted in my website are still valid for the early period of March (the first 2 weeks of each month are overlapping period in my system) . Use the daily high/low and closiing at 20.GMT of the last 4 trading days ( http://global-view.com/fxhist.TXT ) and examine the forecasting ability of this technique. The QIA system is particular good in volatile market

Melbourne Qindex 02:34 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

melbourne farmacia 02:33 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
RE : last post, sorry wrong date, correct minor cycle is 08/03. gt

melbourne farmacia 02:20 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
05/03 is a minor cycle day for the leading pairs fwiw.

Melbourne Qindex 02:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Gold Coast martin 02:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
NYC...i think to pick entry levels before that would not be wise ......g/l g/t

nyc jk 02:05 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
martin - that's great. thanks for the explanation. I agree with your view overall, but will probably wait until after figures tom to pick entry levels. cheers

Gold Coast martin 02:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
NY..The indicators i have been using are the information that i have been receiving and posting in this forum in relation to a forth coming decline in uridashi issuance,reaction by people in responsible places who believe that the aud at 78 was 25% overvalued and their willingness to act....certainly should payrolls be good then the aud will go down to 72 as i posted 2 days ago.
My 'indicators" behind my statement are not totally technical,but i felt that in the current scenario an examination of the views of these people is a great indicator as they have the power to stem the aud rise in an unobtrusive manner...hope this helps...will keep you posted with...

Brisbane L 01:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Fairfax falls on Trading Post talk
Shares in newspaper publisher John Fairfax fell yesterday on news the company was close to buying classified advertising group Trading Post in an attempt to buy back market share.
The deal, rumoured to be worth between $400 million and $500 million, follows the rejection by Fairfax management of an offer to be involved in a bid for The Telegraph Plc, publisher of The Daily Telegraph in London.

This deal isnt a great amount of Aud but could be slightly negative for currency.

L.A. Igrok 01:45 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Today's high on the Swissy is likely to be at 1.3160.

nyc jk 01:40 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
martin - what "indicators" are you using that suggest a 2% fall in the AUD tom? don't you think that the non farm payroll rigures will be a factor in the AUD direction ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:30 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!
I PREDICT USD/JPY TOP IS AT 111.40.
SELL NOW !! WITH STP IF SHOW 111.57 TARGET PROFIT ONLY TO 110.08

brisbane L 01:16 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Probably the same applies to the Aud being sold on the crosses as BC has said .

AUD/USD sleepy at midday with market continuing to mull likely near-term direction; ongoing debate about whether uptrend stalled for good or pair just taking breather. U.S. jobs data to set tone for next week's trading; technically, pair appears vulnerable and move to fresh year low not ruled out

Gold Coast martin 01:10 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
good morning to all...as posted yesterday the aud will continue its downward trend to 7350 by end of new york seesion..this was due to happen by end od ny session but the aud seened to lock itself into a tight trading range with the euro for a longer period of time than what i expected....patience is a key as indicators still point to a drop down to 7350 in the coming ny session....best of luck to all

GER ad 01:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Short EUR/JPY at 135.77 tight S/L

Melbourne Qindex 01:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 00:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta Fed's Guynn saying Fed will at some point have to respond to better economic growth by hiking rates "Monetary policy has been accommodative for a while" but "it will be appropriate at some point to get back to a more neutral policy setting consistent with an expanding economy," Guynn says. Most big banks don't expect hike before September

Swiss DG 00:59 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
These are the prediction:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/04/news/economy/jobs_walkup/index.htm

Brisbane L 00:55 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Well would imagine a really good number would be above 200.000 however think we will get the buy the rumour sell the fact today

Singapore Sfx 00:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane, what qualifies as "good", in absolute numbers?

shanghai bc 00:48 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   

Thanks,friends..I am learning from all of you too..Good trades..

Brisbane L 00:47 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Chatter In Mkt That US Jobs To Be Good

Melbourne Qindex 00:46 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Brisbane L 00:24 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
BC hi seems like you are a reader of The Art of War with your millitary approach (smile)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Great BC, I always say it but I will say it again thanks for your invaluable wisdom you bring to this forum and don’t let anyone say otherwise.

London Paul_ex trader 00:12 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
i think it's a great idea, but do you mind if i take my profit at 1.2298, before your 1.23??

Mfld JM 00:08 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
Okay Guys/Gals - Here's the plan. When Eur/Usd hits 1.2200 let's all buy like there's no tomorrow. Then when it hits 1.2300, I'll take my pips first (you know, being the organizer and all) Then, as you see fit, you may each take your pips in a nice orderly fashion - LOL!! Sorry, I just had to say that - heheheh

OK SZ 00:06 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
boy I tell you when bc, farmacia, athens speak it is best wise to follow them. Thanks you guys for sharing your awesome posts..

melbourne farmacia 00:00 GMT March 5, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:52 GMT March 4, 2004
Thank you. GT

 




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