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Forex Forum Archive for 03/06/2004

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SF MRZ 23:47 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Crystal Ball Forecast - $/Jpy - for about a week or two, High range 113.41-113.17, Low range 110.47-110.20 , Average closing 112.65- 112.48

Upside trigger bias for the week 112.45 targets 112.85 and up
Downside trigger bias for the week 111.65 targets 111.25, 110.35

Short term trading range 112.45-111.65

SF MRZ 23:17 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Crystal Ball Forecast - Eur/$ for about a week or two, High range 1.2475-1.2451, Low Range 1.2253-1.2233, Average closing range 1.2406-1.2384.

W/E 3/13/04 upside trigger bias 1.2433 targets 1.2490, downside trigger bias 1.2319 targets 1.2262.

Range trade between 1.2433 - 1.2319


Det tm 19:59 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Detroit Limey 01:16 GMT

A lady dragged me to one of those casinos a couple years ago, and while I bought some chips I could'nt bring myself to play a single bet, kept thinking what terrible odds these were and that I could find better odds waiting for my own set ups. Was'nt a total waste of time however, she busted out & needed a shoulder to cry on . . . that was the real set up I
was lookin' for ; ) GL & GT.

OK SZ 17:53 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Good Gep..just checking in taking my son to the car show..have a good weekend

Dallas GEP 17:49 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   

Amman 16:44 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   

so does that mean that we can see Euro raising up by the start of the week on monday !!

prauge viktor 15:08 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
I mean yen /eur and that japan are selling to china the same tech. sory

prauge viktor 15:06 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 14:12 GMT March 6, 2004

by this demand and supply we can understand why the usd cant go lower then 1,208 becuse china need euro to pay to germany for new technologe,and why euro is so weak aginst euro because they are selling as Eu the same tech.and thats meaning the range now for the euro it will be so limited 1,208 and 1,265 what u think about it pleas..

Stockholm za 14:12 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   

Munich Schroeder <:>

The understanding of FX is more than the pile of junk you see been posted here every ( 5 min-every day )......
I hope this helps....... week end home work :- ....... lol

Have a nice day !!

Spotforex NY 13:29 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Viewer 09:20 GMT - I saw 1.2182-85 as the price just ahead of US payrolls....

hk revdax 11:20 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:29//How low do you think $/CHF will go down before bouncing up? Have we seen the low of the coming week last Friday? TIA

Munich Schroeder 09:35 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Schroeder is worried over strong euro
MUNICH: German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said yesterday he would be happy if the dollar and euro came more into balance, while adding that only the European Central Bank could affect monetary policy. "I would be happy if the weakness of the dollar and the disproportionate strength of the euro come into a reasonable balance," Schroeder said.

QUESTION: What means "reasonable balance" does he really/reasonable mean parity?

Ldn Viewer 09:20 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Can somebody in a Bank that has EBS feeds maybe let me know the following:

Just Prior to US figures yesterday :

Require high USDCHF Traded
Low EURUSD Traded

Basically between 8.25 EST to 8.30 EST

Appreciate ... TIA

Melbourne Qindex 08:58 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 08:05 GMT - I guess there is too much free postings!

sgp sp 08:05 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Mstr Q,

Sometime this week u posted the ranges for eur/aud....I took several layered possies using the ranges as guide. All were closed with adequate profits prior to Fri's NFP data becos of Melbourne Farmica's timely warning plus being quite a newbie, haven't figured out which cross currencies will be greatly affected by good/bad news.

However the eur/aud surged up to one of ur targets once data was out......could have made more but the lessons I learnt here is : It is better to walk away a winner albeit a small one than to end up with losses. Guess I do not have the temperant for really super high risk gambling. :)

Keep your posts coming.....:)

gl & gt

SG Jay 07:39 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Guys do you think we will see 109 usd/yen on monday ?

melbourne farmacia 05:57 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 15:43 GMT March 5, 2004
Cheers, i'm happy you came out on top. GT

hong kong nt 05:43 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
PERTH SC 04:31 GMT -- oco order maybe a simple and effective way of capital management for fx trading, always my favorite...

hong kong nt 05:33 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
this week, yen moved up from 108.9-112.2 (3.3 yen), saw 3 intermediate 50pip corrections noted at 109.4, 110.4, 111.4,

next monday, we may see consolidation within 111.0-112.2 (200day ma) driven by likely unwinding of eur/jpy to 137.0...

PERTH SC 04:31 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
To Wellington am, DUBLIN CK and anyone else nursing badly burnt fingers:

"When you lose, don't lose the lesson".

Write down what you have done wrong (no stop loss, over-exposure, whatever). Put it on the wall. Give yourself seven snappy upper-cuts when you do the same thing again. Alternatively, don't do the same thing again.

When you get back on the FX horse, you want to do so with a clear head (but a smarter one). Don't get back in with the idea that you have to make X amount of pesos to break even as the dominant theme. If you do so, you will be at a distinct disadvantage from the start. Keep it at the back of your mind only.

Hope this helps.

Ldn Viewer 04:18 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:51 GMT - Agree with your statement "all nations for themselves" but seems only 2 have any real clout with the market ...

1) Mr G , when he speaks , market listens
2) BOJ due to unheard of USD buying

The rest are useless and it is thier countries and currencies that will pay the price in the future ... IMHO

shanghai bc 03:51 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX - Good morning..US Treasury believes in "Strong-Dollar-Policy",so,their buddies,BoJ, must be helping Treasury folks in the direction of strong Dollar..More seriously,it is now everyman-for-himself-market for the major nations..

Gold Coast martin 03:50 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
thank you for the comment dr q...very much appreciated

Melbourne Qindex 03:43 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 03:35 GMT - EUR/USD : If you take a look at my EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts The frequency number of 1.2239 and 1.2391 are the same. This would indicate that the market can easily move between them. Projected supporting and resistant point is located at 1.2087 and 1.2542 respectively

Melbourne Qindex 03:42 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 03:35 GMT - EUR/USD : If you take a look at my EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts The frequency number of 1.2239 and the 1.2391. This would indicate that market can easily move between them. Projected supporting and resistant point is located at 1.2087 and 1.2542 respectively.

Gold Coast martin 03:35 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
DR Q....what do you make of the current position of the EU/USD...12188...after last nites highs of 124+? this the pullback that you posted is imminent?

Melbourne Qindex 03:12 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:29 GMT - Good morning! The movement of EUR/JPY is very interesting. USD/JPY : A projected barrier is positioning at 113.28 - 113.67.

Melbourne Qindex 03:11 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:29 GMT - Good morning! The movement of EUR/USD is very interesting. USD/JPY : A projected barrier is positioning at 113.28 - 113.67.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 02:50 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am 02:06 GMT March 6, 2004

That's typical of a newbie,no offence meant as I also made such mistakes in my earlier days.Why don't you try this place(discussion board).It had some pretty neat strategy last week,espl. the eurusd one.I am still watching them.

hope it helps.

shanghai bc 02:29 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   

From position trader's perspective,Dollar corrected its hefty rise of last week and two weeks before that on bad job numbers on Fri. which is as normal as sunrise and sunset..BOJ folks 10 yard-a-session-trade is the largest one in one session this year although I have seen them throwing around some 15-20 yard a session before..Whether BOJ helped Eur/Usd's rise via Eur/Jpy or hindered Eur/usd rise via Usd/Jpy is not that clear..The question is what is the next likely scenario next week..Most non-Dollar pairs stopped just below the daily neckline which broke last week, which is normal too..Given its liquidity game,Usd/Chf is likely to bounce in a few days towards the previous high of 1.30 level..How the market behaves from there will determine the tone of the market for the coming few weeks..The rumour of DNT 1.2050-1.2650 is at best a rumour but at least it reflects the market sentiment towards certain range in coming days..On Usd/Jpy front,it is still BoJ cannons against Yen buyers and BoJ has been playing it at masterly level..They are likely to get 110-115 range they wish for in coming weeks too..Fwiw..

Wellington am 02:06 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
salutory lessons. I got blown away last week and my trading capital's gone. Took a long euro as per my strategist's recs. and didn't bother with a stop. Could have traded my way out, but ran out of room.

i'll be back in a few months. meanwhile, time to play the demo account, and keep learning. to anyone new to short term trading, my advice would be this:

1. Ensure you have enough margin (don't take too bigger positions)
2. Use a stop if you're close to your margin
3. If not using a stop, don't take your eye off the market, until your out of there.

Simple rules, but so easily forgotten. Ah well, back to work for a few months. Keep the faith, GL and GT everyone.

Melbourne Qindex 01:37 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : A pull-back is imminent, see details in my page.

USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Detroit Limey 01:16 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Thoughts from a relatively new fx participant ( i cannot yet call myself a trader)

beginers should never trade a full margin account you will get blown out very quickly, trade a demo account or at least a mini and do not fund it with a lot of dosh (money) this way when you lose you can stand back, take a breather figure out what the censored you did wrong (easy task) learn from your mistakes and vow never to do them again and then refund your account with some more dosh.

Treat this account as education, learn as much as you can and never take a trade based on someones posting without figuring out the reasons why they are making the trade, everbody has a different reason for a trade and you will never learn by just blindly following postings.

I wish I had more tips and knowledge to pass on but I am learning myself, oh bye the way the data releases that occurred today and this past week are pure gambling and should be treated as such, they are fun to trade censored of a rush especially if you get it right as I did both times this week, only to to rush in and short what I thought was the top... got my arse kicked both times i guess i need to follow my own comments about not making the same mistake twice!!!!! still came out ahead but still better than going to the casino of which we have 3 here, four if you count the one over the river into Canada.

Great forum here, excellent postings and thank you for taking the time to share some of your hard earned knowledge with the rest of us who sometimes are clueless about fx.

Cairo Amgad 01:14 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 22:17 GMT March 5, 2004

may you please advise me a platform for weekends dealing if possible. I can not trade during working day because of my work. Thank you for your help and appritiated

Wien GD 00:32 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast ... $ is (strong ???) because auf ??? (BOJ).
Where is support after 113 (a small step) will be reached?
Imho thereafter GBP, AUD, NZD, EUR will again long ...
Fundamentals of $ are much worse than those of AUD.
After these bad employment-news I would never short AUD although I appreciate your AUD-knowledge very much ... gl, gt

Psychiatric hospital MENTALLY ILL 00:28 GMT March 6, 2004 Reply   
noun [C] US SLANG
a person who behaves in a way that is stupid or not sensible, especially one who is mentally ill:
There's some old crazy over there shouting and spitting at people.
adjective madder or maddest OFFENSIVE
mentally ill, or unable to behave in a reasonable way; insane:
I think you must be going mad.
madman :-(ILL)
a man who is mentally ill.
Psychiatric hospital :- noun [C]
a place where people who are mentally ill stay and receive treatment.


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