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Forex Forum Archive for 03/07/2004

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Madrid CAB 23:44 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Sry Madrid CAB

Dallas CAB 23:44 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
UB Tulga 23:36 GMT March 7, 2004
At Tokyo open around 01:30 GMT

Van jv 23:43 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai bc ///G.D.--------A week or so ago we have discussed on this Forum Asian and Japan's desire for dollars and for buying US Bonds/debt .........I have wrongly expected for some time reduced capital inflow, even some selling of US debt.
Now, after the weak empl. number and possibly decline of the stock market, money may still flow into bonds for some time longerÖI do not expect re-test of 124, but can bonds go much higher????.. ...And .what may trigger retreat out of US treasuries , mainly from from Asia and EZ??..and thus a spike in int. rates ( by Greenspan considered negligible....)

This issue of US bonds would affect to some extent destiny of the USD as FX is historically correlated with long-term interest rates but not short- term rates as is recently believed

dc fxq 23:41 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
about 20:00 et or 01:00 gmt

UB Tulga 23:37 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
I mean O a n d a

UB Tulga 23:36 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyboby? When will censored spreads will be normal?

Melbourne Qindex 23:19 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn 23:15 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
analysts say weak U.S. jobs Friday show dollar's corrective recovery in serious jeopardy; is little talk now of shift in Fed rates near-term. Coupled with ECB decision not to signal a possible rate cut, payrolls report "was a double whammy for the dollar that should remain the dominant market force at least the first part of the week," says IDEAglobal's Sean Callow. Some cite U.S. Treasurys with 10-year yield going as low as 3.781%; "this signals the end of the dollar's upside correction," says HSBC's Marc Chandler
reuters news

Ldn 23:04 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD biased toward 1.2500 near-term after opening higher on day, say National Australia Bank strategists. Commonwealth Bank of Australia technical analyst Jon Gajewski adds after rising a bit from current level, EUR/USD to later pull back to 1.2300 before continuing with rally toward 1.2550. APt

Chicago Irish 23:03 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
RB:The key word is "eventually",a "considerable period" of "patience"may have to be applied to Greenspan's"irrationally exhuberant"comments

RTM RB 22:53 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
A quote from Mr Greenspan: ďIt must be presumed that the rate of accumulation of US Dollar assets by
the Japanese government will have to slow at some point and eventually cease.Ē This was said in a
speech in New York. Mr Greenspan has spoken about Asian Central Banks three times in the past month,
stressing that their intervention in the US Dollar cannot be sustained. If thatís so, the Dollar must fall.
With the US military out on a limb and stuck in the Iraqi sand trap, with the clear warnings from the Fed
that Asian support for the US Dollar is waning, and with US public finances in near chaos with massive
federal budget deficits, the US is in a dire three-cornered predicament - each one of its own making.
Stay clear of the US markets and Dollar, add to cash, consider your Gold holdings, and hold your breath.

bristol 22:39 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
dollar yen starting to moving up

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:31 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
One more thing and I wonít take anymore space is on one of my comments there was an error type and I would like to correct it if I may:

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:16 GMT March 4, 2004
One more thing before I go for a while. If tomorrow does not go the bears way and the bulls get control of the market these are some retracement numbers for a bounce on eur/usd pair. Rough numbers for eur/usd are 1.2385-1.2400, 1.2490-2510 and 1.2590-2600. As long as 1.2550-2600 area is not taken by the bulls this $ correction is still alive IMHO. BTW the daily indicators are in O/B territory so donít be surprised on a pull back before another stab at recent lows again IMHO.

O/B territory should read O/S territory good thing nobody reads my comments anyway. ;-)

Chicago Irish 22:01 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
ZA:Vikram saw my last Euro trade huh? :-)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 22:01 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 21:54 GMT March 7, 2004
That about summons it up, been there, did that and hopefully everyone will learned from that. Thanks for the post (reality check).

Stockholm za 21:54 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Complements of an old forum G.

Calcutta Vikram 12:30 GMT March 27, 2003


Miami OMIL (/;-> 21:53 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone hope everyone got his or her batteries charged for the next round. BC thanks for the comments I am also looking to see how high this bounce takes us as I have a load on eur/usd looking for the 1.1900ís to become a reality. Athens missed your comments for the start of the week hope you are doing well. Jon nice to hear you are ok I hope to see more comments from you. GEP you hit the nail on the head. It is nice to see when the more experience people in the forum post something like this, it gives us a reality check from the super humans that are sometimes portrayed in this forum. Donít tell me your track record for the last month or week. Tell me what have you averaged out on the last 10 or 20 years. That is why I canít get to emotional when I make good because you never know when the bad times are coming around the corner. I hope everyone has a good week.

Dublin CK 21:21 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
PERTH SC 04:31 GMT March 6, 2004
cork glenn 20:12 GMT March 5, 2004

Thanks, appreciate the comments.
"To Wellington am, indonesia new trader and anyone else nursing badly burnt fingers:

"When you lose, don't lose the lesson"." - How very true -

Itís a new week full of opportunities.
Lets not win the dumb a$$ competition two weeks in a row.
(Well I cant no money left, but demo account tho) LOL

Lets get a poll going for predictions for all the major pairs on an up or down basis for the end of this week. There is a great pool of knowledge on this forum, lets use it people.


leeds jb 20:00 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
thanks sf mike.
dose anybody use market mentor and if so dose it work.

sf mike 19:53 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
jb// real account commentaries also do not give clear indications of future prices.

leeds jb 19:30 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
hi guys i`m new to this game,i have a demo account and the market commentary dosent give me a clear picture of what pairs are going long ,short and flat. dose this commentary change when you open a live account.
censored give you a news page with long short and flat commentry.


Kaunas DP 19:05 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
any1 is taking shorts right now - TIA

Bruegel Peter 18:45 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Follow me Link

Lagos Styrax 18:39 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
I greatly appreciate your views.
Ever since that great tragedy that befell me that I told you about. I lost quite a substantial in the course of retracing my steps. I did enter any new trade because I was trying to clear the ones I entered before the great appreciation of dollars; which I didn't put any stop loss order.
Now Im scared stiff to even make any move.
I am seriously counting on your advice this coming week.
Once again thanx

Tokyo Jon 18:34 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
The GBPJPY in my opinion, will begin a downward path during asian trade heading towards 205.40, but may even reach 204.80. Once it has obtained first target it will become range bound and start heading back upward towards 206.99.

during the week, we should see it reach as high as 209.70, my secondary target.

France Lucky Strike 18:22 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
March 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may decline against the euro for the first week in four after U.S. job growth fell short of economists' predictions, increasing speculation interest rates will remain low relative to other countries, a Bloomberg survey indicates.

Thirty-eight of the 68 investors, traders and strategists polled from Tokyo to New York on Friday, or 56 percent, advised buying the euro against the U.S. currency. Twenty-two recommended selling it and eight said they would hold the currency shared by a dozen European Union nations.

The dollar had its biggest slide in five weeks against the euro on Friday and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to the lowest since July after the Labor Department said employers added 21,000 positions in February. Jobs growth was less than one-sixth of the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

full story here---->

Tokyo Jon 18:13 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Almost re-established in UK. Looking forward to join you guys and girls more often. GBPJPY comments on its way.

LA 7 17:55 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP. All markets go through different phases and when shifting out of trend/momentum markets to consolidation, congestion, ranges (take your choice what to call it), market tend to trade choppy with a lot of false starts. In the current situation, the massive BOJ interventions are unprecendented and causing all sort of distortions, including out of the manipulated crosses so you must take into account these are not normal times or trend times and adjust your approach accordingly.

Helsinki iw 17:38 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP, normally when the market volatilty goes up, and unexpe-cted big moves are seen, the anger level and abuse on the
forum also moves in the corresponding way. So the old adage
about only a fraction of traders making money in the long run
still holds.

Antwerp Tom 17:07 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
GEP very well said...thanks for putting things in the right perspective.
BTW, i have renamed stop and reverse strategies lately as the new forex-related SARS...

Dallas GEP 16:41 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
I usually don't post on the weekends but a few things have been bothering me since Friday close. Sometimes when you look at the posts here it seems that when it is going well everyone is making a killing trading FX and that is simply not the case. Trading FX can be ENORMOUSLY profitable but is is also VERY risky. This goes back to the old adage high risk, high reward and that was never more true than in FX trading. Also unfortunately there will be some that post their winning trades but say nothing about the losers, AGAIN giving the false sense of ALL is WELL.

IMO is is VERY difficult to trade FX in a conservative manner in the sense that tight stops with this CURRENT market can lead to consistent losses. It didn't used to be that way in that IF you entered correctly you could have say a 20 PIP stop loss with a 60 PIP profit potential. The risk reward on this being 1:3 and that was what we tried to acheive. IMO currently. the 1:3 ratio is GONE so one has to take a higher degree of risk to make the same amount of profits.

STOP and REVERSE strategies are especially dangerous now because of FALSE breaks and stop hunting. The placement of stops JUST on the other side of FIBS and support or resistance levels is not working as well as it once did either.

The bottom line is DON'T get the impression that this is easy by any means. Even the traders with the BEST risk management strategies can be hurt significantly in the market. The best strategy in my view is to take profits when you can, run trailing stops and enter smaller position sizes.

The best to all here with their trading.

hk ab eur/gbp 0.66 15:30 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
bc// thanks very much. the message is v. clear.

Helsinki iw 13:44 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Always a pleasure reading your comments, Shanghai bc.
Thank you and hopefully you will keep it up.

MDS PVR 13:41 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Wellington am , et al . , would like to share my experience with stop-loss strategies. I find that frequent switching of stop loss orders from narrow to wide does not help. I have painfully learnt that consistent stoploss levels - say 30/50 pips for all trades, based only on one's ability to take the loss works, by law of averages, than trying to vary the stoploss for each position based on technical negation points. In other words, decision-making is restricted to entry level ( whether based on technicals or fundamantals) , but getting stopped is automatic. Tho most important thing, I have learnt the hard way , is to accept , when a stop is hit , that I am out of sync with the market & I should probably stay away for a few hours/days, until I regain the 'feel' for the market rhythm , instead of fighting back to recover all the losses mmediately.

ASENG Dar 12:19 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Total borrowing in U.S. skyrockets
New York Times March 5, 2004, 3:23PM
The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that the nation"s debt, including both household and government borrowing, grew last year at a pace not seen since the late 1980s.
According to the quarterly federal funds report, the total national debt, excluding the obligations of banks and other financial institutions, grew by 8.1 percent last year, its fastest pace since 1988.
Households threw caution to the wind, mortgaging and re-mortgaging their homes and expanding their debt by 10.4 percent, the biggest percentage gain since 1987.
Federal government borrowing expanded by 10.9 percent, the fastest rate since 1992.
Only businesses pulled back. Still hobbled by credit overhangs from the investment boom of the late 1990s, corporate borrowing inched ahead by 3 percent.
Overall, the nation"s debt grew by some $1.7 trillion last year to $22.4 trillion, the Fed said. The federal government accounted for about 18 percent of the total, local governments for roughly 7 percent, households for 42 percent and businesses for 33 percent.
"There"s a time-bomb issue," said Allen Sinai, head of Precision Economics, a consulting firm. "There are potential adverse consequences, but we don"t know when."
Even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan declared himself at a loss to explain how a corrective could be applied to the current financial imbalances.
"Can market forces incrementally defuse a worrisome buildup in a nation"s current account deficit and net external debt before a crisis more abruptly does so?" the Fed chairman asked in a speech to the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday.Debt could hobble the economy. But if interest rates were to rise sharply, for example, because businesses started borrowing again or a depreciating dollar primed inflationary pressures, "the picture could turn nasty in a hurry," Sinai said.

Khabarovsk Kray 11:53 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
I suggest place order buy eur/usd 1.2445
no stop loss

shanghai bc 10:52 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   

AB -- I am still expecting Usd/Chf to enter 1.30-1.35 region and accumulation of Dollar shorts in that region by long-termers..Firday's job figures were very poor and it may put next week's Dollar moves on weak note..But all Friday's dollar move did was just much needed correction of up-move since 18/2 without changing the Dollar bounce mode..So, how market moves next week is very important..For Eur/usd to make another up-move of some 1000 pips or more ,Gold must rise above 416 on daily close and Eur/Gbp must firmly rise above 20 dma..Till then Dollar bounce is still in place..Fwiw..

hk ab 0.66 09:21 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
bc// looks like you are looking for this USD correction to be done within 2 weeks, right?

Saihat 08:05 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Entry: 1.2323 Target: unknown Stop: 1.2247

for demo

hk ab 0.66 06:42 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   


shanghai bc 06:37 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   

SA -- Good afternoon..I read MS's Roach's open letter to Sir Alan urging him to do the right thing for an independent cb.i.e. raise the rate now before it is too late....But I bet Fed may sit on their hands till next year..

Nt -- Good afternoon..Commodities may correct for a while till Chindia start accelerating their demand again this year..China is set to cool down a bit this year and the commodity bull market based on Chindia's industrialization drive may be duely affected as well..But any deep correction is a God-send opportunity to buy and sit on them..This mega-commodity bull market is still at its infancy with possible life span of at least two to three decades..Think of Chindia,40% of the humanity embarking on industrilization process..These two cultures were once the greatest economic powers in the world and in all probability they will be the most important economic entities in this century too..And to achieve that they need all the commodities in the world..Even now,China is suffering from heavy shortage of everything from iron ores to scrap metals..Then,China produces more steel than USA and UK combined and still needs all steel products from anywhere it can buy..My worry is that there is not enough commodities to satisfy the industrilization need of China and India and that means a mega-commodity bull market of the century only seen once in our life time..Put your money into basic commodities on every decent dip and sit and ride the commodity bulls at least for a decade or two..And given all commodities price being priced in Dollars,that implies,we are in a long-run Dollar bear market too in the time span of a decade or more..And those commodity-rich countries like Australia,canada and SA are in the big money too along with their strong currencies..And in all probability before the middle of this century,Asia lead by Chindia's growth will have more than 60% of the world's GDP along with other changes accompanying these economic powers..

Melb mpfx 06:04 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw some fib numbers.......
Previous weekly Close ~ 1.2370
Range in Pips ~ 483

Previous weekly High ~ 1.2539
Fib Retrace 25% ~ 1.2418
Fib Retrace 33.3% ~ 1.2378
Fib Retrace 38.2% ~ 1.2354
Fib / Pivot 50% ~ 1.2298
Fib Retrace 61.8% ~ 1.2241
Fib Retrace 66.6% ~ 1.2217
Fib Retrace 75% ~ 1.2177
Previous weekly Low ~ 1.2056

GT all.........

hong kong nt 04:52 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
ab -- yr email [email protected] ?

hong kong nt 04:22 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
BC -- oil price fails to post a new high in comparison to 2003, do you think it is an important sign of market weakness? many good trades...

HK TF 03:01 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   

Gold Coast martin 01:59 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
HK ab....sunday is a day for reflection,research and preparation for the coming is a day where you can look at what happened in the passing week and form strategies without having the inteference of actual trading coming into the equation as a variable ..

hk ab 0.66 eur/gbp 01:31 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Martin, you worked quite hard eh, it's Sunday!.


Gold Coast martin 01:28 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
....the anticipated level of the AUD in june is to be in the 68 to 70 range

Gold Coast martin 01:26 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
HK tf...the aud despite its recent spike on the weekend due to poor payroll figures is destined to continue its downward spiral down to more realistic valuation lecels of 68.70..a .25 interest rate rise is factored into the equation in may the feds wording on interest rate hikes should be more favorable toward an imminent rate hike due to the fact that companies cannot longer put off hiring more labour as demand for their products has been on the increase from the start of 2004....evidence showing the economy is growing at a great rate is evident pointing to an increase in demand for goods.....this fact cannot be ignored by companies who have put off from hiring labour until they have to....hope this helps..

HK TF 01:13 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Where will the AUD/USD likely be come June??Anybody any thoughts out there??

Gold Coast martin 01:13 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
good morning article in the new york times under the heading..NEW PATTERNS RESSTRICT HIRING...{NY TIMES BUSINESS SECTION..POSTED 7TH OF MARCH},may give you an indication as to the fortunes of the USD in the medium term....

nyc sa 00:58 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   
Hi Shanghai , what' s ur view on the Fed's action in march ?do u see a 1/4 point hike in interest rates at the next meeting , contrary to what everybody expects ? wouldn't that put a floor to the dollar decline ? most people think the Fed won't move until june , as a contrarian one might think we have a surprise attack from Greenie ..

shanghai bc 00:23 GMT March 7, 2004 Reply   

REVDAX 11:20 -- Good morning..US job numbers are horrible to say the least and that may set the tone for Dollar for the next week..Expecting Usd/Chf to range roughly in 1.2650-1.2950 region with downside bias next week..


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