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Forex Forum Archive for 03/15/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:58 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
NYC, that's what I indicated in my statement, exporters want a LOWER usd/jpy.

Brisbane L 23:42 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc very true , I am always concerned when there is a change of power perhaps too much. thank you .

shanghai bc 23:40 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   

L -- Good morning..RBA has to fight inflation regadless of who becomes PM,their ultimate weapon being rates..In a big picture,Dollar bounce or Aud correction may last some more weeks..As far as I am concerned,the question is how much Dollar can bounce in this round rather than if it has turned the long-term corner yet..But given huge overshoot,Aud may touch .70 region in this correction at some point..Just as a simple example,if Dollar has turned the long-term corner,BoJ folks will not have to be intervening day and night with their yard guns just to stay afloat..good trades..

melbourne farmacia 23:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Morning ab - aussie looks odd at the moment, risk of mid 0.7400 on the cards.

Brisbane L 23:33 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Costello Plans 0130GMT Briefing


hk ab nzd 0.6 23:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
now we have eur/gbp under .68 and dlrcad marching north. Pretty coherent to long dlr.

AND dlr/chf above 1.2750................

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:16 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
dlr/cad is running to the 200 sma again after spike down.

Now

Brisbane L 23:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC if your around , could you give your view on the election in Australia and the Aud . many thanks

lahore FM 22:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Cad represents an excellent buying opportunity at these prices i see the 200 SMA being successfully tested and breached in the comind days starting from today.The stop loss shall be at 1.3300 and if a larger one can be afforded then at 1.3260.

Brisbane L 22:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
CBA technical analysts say Audwill then be vulnerable to resuming decline once reaches 74 area. Next drop need only exceed 7255, but the full potential is 7075

nyc jk 22:23 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Genève JZ 22:19 GMT March 15, 2004

Even if EBS or Reuters would allow you to gain access to their system, if you are a small trading firm probably at least 95% of the banks would not allocate credit to deal with you, thus you would not be able to use the systems effectively to deal anyway. Use alternative means of dealing.

Stockholm za 22:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   

GBP/USD….. Value band at the moment
~20093 ~19049 ~18020 ~17184 ~16348……
Playing with the bullish channel line ......
EUR/USD…..Damped oscillation into the checkmate zoan ~122xx given..
However Still inside the bull channel....
Happy trades .......fwiw.......

Eilat Dolphin 22:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
And it takes twelve hours or more to tell us if it's milk powder or anthrax ???

Ldn Mvs 22:11 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Four suspicious packages were sent to "diplomatic premises" in London Monday, but no details were available about their contents, police said.
A Scotland Yard spokeswoman said the packages "are currently being examined. That's all we can say at the moment," the BBC reported on its Web site.
A Metropolitan Police spokeswoman said she couldn't confirm whether the suspicious packages were sent to one or more addresses, The Associated Press reported.
The Saudi Embassy confirmed that it had received an envelope containing white powder Monday morning and that U.K. authorities were called. "A closed envelope arrived at the embassy this morning containing white powder," the embassy said. "The embassy contacted the British authorities who dealt with the matter on the spot. The embassy has taken all the precautionary measures for the protection and safety of its employees."

GVI john 22:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2365…$/yen 110.30
DJIA 10,103, -137 pts…NASDAQ 1,939 -46 pts
10-yr 3.76%, -1 bp’s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:

For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE

Clearly the focus Monday was on geopolitical developments since last Thursday morning in Madrid. Five suspects were taken in custody over the weekend as the investigation continued to determine who was responsible for the attacks, and an Al Qaeda connection is assumed. The initial major fallout from the deadly attack was the Spanish national elections, where the opposition Socialists upset the ruling Populist Party. We are concerned that this terrorist group will be emboldened by the fact that it has been able to sway public opinion in a major election by its actions.

Midday in NYC, the markets got hit with another yen lunchtime surprise. This time a headline hit the wires that the Bank of Japan is considering reducing the scale of forex intervention at the end of March. The dollar quickly plunged on the news before the Bank of Japan intervened in force to turn the tide. On reflection we expressed some skepticism about the story and even if it is accurate wondered how it could be leaked out to the press. We know that one key issue in Japan has been the difficulties that Bank of Japan has encountered recently in financing its massive forex intervention in domestic money markets. This problem would not exist if the central bank were not “sterilizing” its forex intervention. Since the Ministry of Finance controls forex intervention, I am more than a little skeptical of this story until I see more details.

Tuesday sees Monetary policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. Most expect no rate change from the BOJ, but an increase in bank reserves is possible.
As for the FOMC, no chance is seen for rate hike. The focus will on the accompanying policy statement. February Housing Starts will be watched closely as well.

CALENDAR
TUESDAY, MARCH 16, 2004
23:30 GMT- AUS- January Lending Finance, vs. -0.8%
06:00 GMT-JPN- BOJ Monthly Report
BOJ Policy Board Meeting
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Retail Price Index: vs. -0.5%, +1.4% in Jan
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Housing Starts: vs. 1.903 mln units in Jan
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Manufacturing Survey
19:15 GMT- US- FOMC decision

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17, 2004
23:30 GMT- AUS- Westpac Leading Economic Index
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Unemployment- vs. -13,400 in Jan
09:30 GMT- UK- Minutes of March 3-4 BOE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
11:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Industrial Output: vs. +0.2% in Dec
11:00 GMT- EUR- Feb final CPI: vs. preliminary +1.6% y/y
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:30 GMT- US- Feb CPI: vs. +0.5%, +0.2% ex-food & energy
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories

THURSDAY MARCH 18, 2004
RBA Monthly Bulletin
23:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q03 Dwelling Commencements, vs. +5.5%
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
01:30 GMT- JPN- 20-YR JGB Auction
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Retail Sales Volume: vs. +6.4% y/y in Jan
12:00 GMT- CDA- February CPI, vs. +2.2% y/y

13:30 GMT- CDA- February International Securities Transactions
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Feb Leading Economic Index: vs. +0.5% in Jan
17:00 GMT- US- Mar Philly Fed Index: vs. 31.4 in Feb

FRIDAY, MARCH 19, 2004
JPN- Minutes of Feb 4-5 BOJ Meeting
07:00 GMT- GER- Feb Producer prices: vs. -0.2% in Jan
UK- Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin

Nottingham 21:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
usa tom 21:17 GMT

Dollar rebound remains intact until key levels are broken, so until they are, it is reasonable to have such levels in mind if you are a trend follower...gl gt

LAX-LGB SNP 21:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane 21:36 GMT March 15, 2004
there's no business like 'client-servicing' (pun intended)

once upon a time, this client was being shown the brokers' flotilla @ the marina by the usual thieves ... the client mentioned it was so nice to do business with a house as reputed and high-flying as the one in question and chanced to ask "so where are the clients' boats ?"

no reply yet

LAX-LGB SNP 21:49 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy ... eurusd still below TL's and gbpusd looking tres-flat suggesting a bounce - would like to sell eurgbp but going to avoid the bottom-line drainers
instead
going to sell eur and chf against usd near 21 wmas soon but watch out for eurjpy ahead of 132.90

NYCNYCNYC 21:37 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
FWIW re the CRB/Inflation reference below.
The CPI is consumer prices, not raw materials, raw material prices have a dimmer and dimmer effect on consumer prices through time.

Brisbane 21:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Online currency trade booms at FX multi-bank sitesTotal Internet-based currency trading volume exceeded market expectations in 2003, jumping 135 percent to $8 trillion last year from about $3.7 trillion in 2002, according to a survey by research firm Greenwich Associates in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Worth a thought

Porto PJT 21:34 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 21:12 , thanks.

usa tom 21:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
thanks much nottingham. now I remember Dr. Qindex says 191 on gbp/jpy maybe seen, in that case let's hope euro don't break 1.233.

Nottingham 21:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 20:54 GMT

cable has fulfilled minimum criteria for this week (actually it already did that late Friday) so I see nothing concrete there especially ahead of important economic data tom...given the array due for release it should impact cable but failing that, a break above 1.2330 ought to release cable too so watch price action between 1.2330/1.2300 tom if seen...gl gt

usa tom 20:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Anyone think it's a good time to sell the aud and nzd? or are we going to see more dollar weakness this week?

Porto PJT 20:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 20:06 , yes, thx, on gbp/usd what are you expecting?i see a h&s on 1 hour chart to leave the gbp till neck trendline, 1,8110+/- but seams sometimes like watching clouds...everyone have a different interpretation.gl gt.

Melbourne Qindex 20:53 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT March 13, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 109.76 - 110.22. The pattern of my weekly cycle frequency chart suggests that the market is likely to trade between 109.76 - 110.67 during early period of next week. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is positioning at 108.85 // 109.31 and the mid-point reference is 109.08. The upper barrier is expected at 112.04 // 112.50 and the mid-point reference is 112.27. The market rhythm is represented by 46 pips (k=0.45588) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 109.76 - 112.04 (Suggestion : Buy on dips is the preferred strategy for the coming week. The best entry level for long position is 109.08 - 109.31 if it is traded. Maintain long position when the market is trading above 109.24).

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 107.03 ... 108.85 // 109.31 - 109.76 - 110.22 - 110.67 - 111.13 - 111.59 - 112.04 // 112.50 ... 113.86 ... 114.78 ...

B.A. BOCA 20:50 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
the BoJ is doing a tremendous job these days in my opinion...
hurting specs left and right..

Athens 20:49 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
TH, if down there, the Japnese action will depend on the volume of Treasuries the US will have to sell to finance the deficits and on foreign demand (AND distribution of demand)...somebody will have to buy all that paper anyway...

or 20:27 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Exporters want a higher usd/jpy and that is the whole point of the MOF selling yen to achieve this. Obviously the last two dips of 100 pips and more were a BOJ mistake and thats why you seem them quickly scurrying to sell yen again to bring the price back up. The very first dip they purposely pulled their bids and hence did not bid usd/yen back up.

pd cumino 20:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
FWIW. Starting from 03 when BOJ went on more or less regular interventions, they sold up today at about 110.80 weighted.

CAIRO AG 20:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GEP: Noted my friend.

NYC NYC 20:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GEP. This statement is wrong:

From the exporters standpoint they would like to see a LOWER usd/jpy

Dallas GEP 20:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
The MOF has to walk a fine line with exporters in that this being their year end, all their accounts need to be settled by march end. From the exporters standpoint they would like to see a LOWER usd/jpy while the MoF has already stated they would like to see @ 115.00 usd /jpy. In an effort to appease these mutually exclusive goals, the BOJ bids have been withdrawn now three times recently allowing these drops. It is my view that the exportors KNOW the timing of these BID withdrawls and take advantage of them to one degree or another. It will happen several times again prior to month end, no doubt.

On a perosnal note, I am off to replace some computer equipment that was damaged by a nearby lightning strike so I will be away from board a while but I will be back at least in Asia (please note AG)

Livingston nh 20:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Stops are building on USD/JPY shorts - care on the BoJ if they want 112 at some point in the next week or so -- they ran out of stops above 111 two weeks ago

Ltn th 20:09 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Adam. Agree also on likely BOJ(/MOF?) motivation. They have gained time in defense of 100. But what will their strategy be for the next target in the 80's once 100 is seen?

Dublin CK 20:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
World 17:43 GMT March 15, 2004

Sorry for the delay, esignal also have a function for alerts, sounds, emails and pop - ups.

You can register for free.

Beware, that the price on signal and the price from your server will differ, in planning your trades.

GL/GT

Nottingham 20:06 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 19:56 GMT

That was a very good defence of the 10 day sma...as we approach the roll-over at/nearlows the odds do fvour a bounce in any case, but an impressive defence nonetheless...the pair is stuck between 10 day sma and 200 day sma and I feel a move either side should determine the direction but I'd still caution chasing upticks until we get a close above the 200 day sma...gl gt

Athens 20:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, you may find this sound funny but sometimes the reason for a CB to take its currency xxx points up (or down) is a time gain i.e. had it not been pulled higher it would have been pushed lower by the market. Thus for example $/JPY mow is 110 rather than 100 (it isn't necessary that 112 or 115 was targetted). Also, don't take it for granted that they have lost money through these opeerations. Let me also add that their "gain" is not necessarily coming only from spot FX buying/selling (open market operations) but also indirectly through a better financial overall handling for their companies. A CB aims at "national gain" and not simply a P/L.

Nottingham 20:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 19:50 GMT

They want to curb speculation on the downside and they certainly aren't happy if speculators "reload" by holding onto their coat tails on the way up either...essentially they stop making it a one way and thereby force traders to try to calculate what they can't see...a difficult proposition

Porto PJT 19:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
fast bounce on 70 level on usd/cad.

Det tm 19:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
CRB set within ticks to break into new all time highs again. With CPI on Wednesday I wonder if the Fed will change the wording of its neutral stance tomorrow.

Brazil, JH 19:51 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
PJT, Thanks...I'm just gald I was out of my short at that time... GL GT

Eilat Dolphin 19:50 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham and Athens/ Thanks, the image is a bit clearer. But I still fail to understand what the BOJ has to benefit in having to do such a 100 pips uphill three extra times ?...

Besides losing some had earned expensive " $/Y virility" by telling us what they don't want to hear ?...

Athens 19:44 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Tony, thank you. Stay safe and sane my friend.

Porto PJT 19:42 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Brazil, JH 19:38 , KK, was nikkei statement, end of March boj will stop big interventions.

Barcelona Tony 19:41 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Athens, very glad to see you back ;-)

Brazil, JH 19:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
KL, I don't know what caused that spike not sure anyone
does..I'm thinking maybe Dallas,GEP got his computer working
and got into the market..LOL
GL

KL KL 19:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
what was that spike?? just woke up?

Porto PJT 19:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Anyone seeing possible h&s on 1 hour chart for gbp targeting 1,81+?

SanFrancisco tg 19:09 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Perhaps the key phrase "large scale" is the big note in the song, which means intervention itself is not going away.

SPB Mike 19:09 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Jay, couldn't understaned/translate yr post properly.
I apologize if it was inconvenient .

Global-Biew 19:02 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Mike, Sorry, your update inadvertlently cut off in house cleaning from that multiple posting.

Tokyo 19:01 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
- BOJ mulls ending massive yen intervention - Nikkei

Monday March 15, 1:21 pm ET

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is mulling ending its massive yen-selling interventions in the currency market by the end of March, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported from Tokyo in its early Tuesday edition.

Athens 18:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin, there wee two good supports in the market, 110.20 and 110.00, next 109.75 and 109.35, all of them triggered ( lowr one around 108.75 survived). Too many in the market hd it for granted that March being the FYE month in Japan guaranteed a continuous uptrend till month end. However, we have seen again in the past this "obvious" parameter to be fooled an $/JPY moving lower.

Gen dk 18:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 18:52 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 18:33 GMT

I'm not an active dollar yen player but fwiw largest net long positions (yen) since summer last year...MoJ rubbed hands once they had read this report...but the fun and games aside, despite what they may or may not say, they will happily burn speculators and re halting intervention, I don't think they'd know how to stop, or at least whenever they did it would result in sharp falls that it would soon have dollar yen spiralling lower once again and creating problems for exporters...balance sheet is just a snapshot of the position of the company at that time, but it means so much and MoF will make sure Japanese balance sheets are looking as healthy as possible at year end + give chance for exporters to take on enough hedges for following year...conclusion and action to take? Buy the sharp drops and avoid getting stung

Ldn Mvs 18:51 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
SPB Mike 18:47 GMT
I wud suggest that because it came out on Nikkei as opposed to Reuters or Dow Jones, this news is less accessible and therefore takes more time to reach the market...also with Tokyo being asleep now, not as easy to verify with usual contacts around for non-Japanese....

SPB Mike 18:47 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
The time of the news @ Nikkey ("BOJ WATCH: Exit Strategy For Market Interventions Explored") is 17:42 and the time of ccy's spike is 17:55.
Could you suggest the reason 4 the delay?

prague mark 18:47 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
folks, do we have FED tomorrow? - TIA

NYC NYC 18:39 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat - See 17:59 GMT update below

Eilat Dolphin 18:33 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Athens/ Hi! What triggered this spire ? The third time in a week BOJ leaves the $ buying desk for a break ?

SanFrancisco tg 18:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Athens

Athens 18:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hmm, it didn't take long to see an exampkle of what I had in mind when I wrote that peragraph (re my 17:57). I think more of such (and bigger) swings are ahead.

GER ad 18:13 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
World 17:22 GMT,
If your trading software does not include a “price alert” will be difficult to find software that can read your prices and made the alert. There are many independent services for price alert (phone, email, cellular/handy...) but not for free (I presume what Va Catch-22 suggest is also not for free...).
If you bet all you margin in a wrong position (like today long USD/JPY - until now) you can get this alert “free” as margin call. LOL!
But now my suggestion, there are many forex trading portals witch give you the possibility to open free a demo account.
Check witch one has a "price alert" and opens a demo account to see how is working (the price differences between the trading companies will be rare a problem) and later maybe switch over. GL & GT .

Tallinn viies 18:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo HY 17:56 -* Nikkei newssay that BOJ to end large scale interventions at the end of march

Tor Pumpkin 17:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Tor Pumpkin 17:59 GMT March 15, 2004
In case you missed it af ew minutes ago, according to Nikkei, BoJ is mulling ending large scale currency intervention by end March

SF Augustus 17:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
WTF!

Athens 17:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
This is a paragraph from Trendways weekend analysis on Sunday. Perhaps it doesn't shed much light on the picture but at least it voices my concern, call it if you like an alarm call of the need for a lower than usual trading exposure:

"I must admit that writing this week's analysis I have some difficulty in getting a good flow of arguments. In other words, I am not feeling comfortable in putting forward solid arguments supporting a particular direction and, mind you, this doesn't happen to me frequently. However, I feel the need to make the point here now to make clear that presently I am prepared to change direction if needed. As the following paragraphs will describe, the technical parameters haven't changed to indicate a market turn against the Dollar, but the delay in more USD progress and the ongoing lack of supporting US fundamentals (plus the ever present US elections issue this year) make me feel more defensive than usual and I want my readers to know this. Should we have a change soon, I am not implying that the Dollar will dive into new lows, however we could see a further series of short lasting model breaks. Such events would most probably make the broad consolidation last much longer and, of course, such an environment would not favour medium term position holding"

Tokyo HY 17:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
What's wrong?

World 17:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dublin, Thanks, In which part of yahoo finance I could find about musical alerts, I see http://finance.yahoo.com/ and logined using my yahoo account, but don't know where is the musical alerts part?

Va Catch-22 17:26 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Alternatively, you can hire a girl to watch the levels for you She can make any sound you like whenever the levels are touched..... Jsut a suggestion.

prauge viktor 17:26 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK : ok back to FX how do u see the cable now is it ready to short it or not yet thanks.

London Misha 17:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I setup my Reuters to play a submarine klaxon (which I downloaded from the net) when it went limit down! I did a General Quarters klaxon when it broke limit up!

Dublin CK 17:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
World,

yahoo finance can send you musical alerts when a price is met.

Just pick the tune and turn up the volume.

KL KL 17:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Washington MMM, In , Boca...etc..

Firstly Isreal have not had any hijack by terrorist for years. In ...you are right the community secretly support their cause but publically denounce (in the name of Islamic brotherhood)...look at Phillipines, Indonesia Malaysia, India. The funny thing is that this type terror attack have not occur in China .... maybe need to go back to dark ages of repressive regime....over my dead body. We will use freedom to deal with all these repressive regime. Life and death facts of life ... just get right with your MAKER and these loonies will be a JOKE. ALL ISLAMIC countries have REPRESSIVE REGIME. MAybe we should boycott trade with them...then again OIL is too important to US...Maybe US should spend more money on alternative energy than INVEST BILLIONS in SPACE PROBE for I do not know what reasons! Lets see what happens to these OIL rich country then...perhaps they need to start working then and less time to think of causing terror attack !

BTW looks like GBP is looking good to SHort .... do you see it losing power around 1.8??

World 17:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi, I'm looking for a software which could play sound notifications when e.g. EUR/USD drops 1.222 or things like that which someone could set previously. Did anyone knows about such a software? Thanks in advance.

SanFrancisco tg 17:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
JP - how much do you think the next major attack on New York will cost the US and global economy. Seems the dollar spent on a bullet should have been spent more often and earlier. Trillions were lost in the first attack. The US military expense compared to GDP was only 0.5% for Iraq compared to 130% for WWII, non of which we started of course. So the war on terror has indeed been cost effective, but I just don't think people in europe are smart enough to support stopping this threat out of the middle east, they sure weren't smart enough to stop Hitler when they had the chance.

Alsace 17:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 17:17

Imagine of the money that was made from oil sales actually went to were is was supposed to instead of Chriac and Co.

Dublin CK 17:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Back to work now lads, good exchange of views.

Lucky were not all in the same room, there would be no furniture left.

Personally i believe this is dollar weakening for the time being, before the dust settles.

Helsinki iw 17:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
tg, if I understood correctly the Spaniards don´t equate
the war on Saddam with the war on terror.

Dublin CK 17:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Imagine how many schools, hospitals, roads, jobs, food etc could be bought with the money that has been spent on war.

San Fran, its a tough one to argue either side of the coin whether war, has helped or hindered financial markets.

If there had been no war in Iraq, Spain would not of been bombed and 3% would not of been wiped off the IBEX.

I think the war on terrorism helped speed up the start of the recovery. But it also expotentially increased the threat to financial meltdown.

Alsace 17:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Right MTL JP, that is why they call the CAC the CAC 40 instead of the DAX no?

SanFrancisco tg 17:16 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
No question the UN would have stopped nothing, zero, nada. Financial markets are in trouble if the US does not continue to find these terrorists because sitting aside only starts the clock for more attacks by terrorists, and more destruction of financial systems worldwide. I will be watching for the inaction out of Europe to base large sell orders on.

Mtl JP 17:16 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
tg 17:10 / financial markets don't need any saving help, especially from the US military. Spending a dollar on abullet is the worst possible allocation of ressource btw. There simply is no worst.

B.A. BOCA 17:13 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Norway JS / dont be ridiculous man.

you never get anywhere by walking around blindfolded.

ithaca sjm 17:11 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
buy $/cad with a move up thru. 1.3335. Target 1.3385 min. S/l per your own discretion. 1.3315 for me. IMVHO.

Porto PJT 17:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
They threaten Portugal planning an attack before euro 2004 that begins in June, in all newspapers here.

Norway JS 17:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA
So the terrorist did what they had to do, -they are excused.
Im getting sick.

SanFrancisco tg 17:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Ok thanks folks, interesting mix of views. I understand the Spanish public was against stopping terrorism (without a major conflict we would still be nowhere and the UN would have stopped a single cell). Therefore I see the US military effort has been significantly positive for saving financial markets from further destruction, which is good for europe and the US. The head in the sand does not work though, and since this shows a very big sentiment to take that course in Europe, I see further destruction of financial markets around the corner unless the US takes more military action.

So not anticipating that, and going purely by these conditions, I would project hard times ahead for US stocks, and both the Euro and the USD but fluctuating based on the timing of events.

I'll watch those levels Notingham.

Dublin CK 17:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
The terrorist attacks did directly influence the outcome of this election because more labour voters came out and voted, that would have otherwise stayed at home.

The PP have been mis informing the spanish public and that was key to an extra 3 million voters for the PSOE.

If you know spanish i recommend you read some of the local spanish papers to guage public sentiment and to read some letters from the public. Here are some I read this morning.

www.e l p a i s.es

www. e l m u n d o.es

www. a b c .es

B.A. BOCA 17:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL // I know it's of no use to begin a discussion here, but Israel fights the terrorist they create.
People in the US have a way-too slanted opinion on this... they don't even know what the terrorists are fighting for (never a good way to resolve a problem)

Alsace 17:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
BEIJING, (AFP) - China sentences to death and immediately executes around 10,000 convicted criminals every year, according to a delegate who was seeking to curb the practice at China's just closed parliamentary session.

Lets let them run the world,and have the US step aside.

ln 17:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 16:58 GMT. I am not from the west and actually from the east and have to admit that you guys do not know what you are dealing with. As an Indian we had our censored in Kashmir when the AQ guys were being trained and the Pakistani govt were helping out. Now years later the world wakes up to the threat they pose after years in which the Indian govt was telling you guys to wake up. Does it have to take yet more lives for you guys to wake up? Go and study what India has been up against. Look at what we have had to deal with all of these years and you will see that countries like Spain do little justice to the fight. Someone here asked last week what are the muslim community doing and I think we should all ask the very same question...

B.A. BOCA 17:05 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
LA Mel// meaning that the Aznar administration got what they deserved for siding with the Bush...it's all over the street here. people were afraid that by siding with Bush Spain wouldbecome a target, and they were right it seems. they feel vindicated now. although nobody seems to care that Spain has the best economy in the EU right now..

Politicians in England, Italy, should be looking over their shoulder pretty soon with these results.

Washington MMM 17:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
KL
RE your analysis to israel its been going for 50 years and still they didnt solve it

nyc jk 17:02 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 16:54 GMT March 15, 2004
San Fran

The people in Spain have NOT clearly shown they prefer to allow terrorism to pick who is in office.

They have shown that they are unwilling to be lied to, by there ex-government.

90% of Spaniards disagreed with the war in Iraq,even before the bombs.

Aznar's administration entered into something, which the public disagreed with.


CK - If what you say is true, why were the people of Spain going to vote Aznar's party back into office? The Popular Party were leading handily in the opinion polls until the bombs went off. You are trying to say that terrorist attacks did not directly infulence the outcome of this election??

Pgh wjs 16:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin,

Is now a good time to short AUD again?

KL KL 16:58 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I think SPAIN have played into the hands of terrorist...DOn't imagine this is the last. THe world should deal with terrorist like Isreal does...one for 50. No mercy, no prisoners...bomb the censored out of them. These low down scums play to the emotions of human beings by showing the world the Western atrocities and their suffering. These scums will never give up their cowardly act until they are eliminated . They play to the western laws but the westerners do not know how to play their game...Their laws are kill first then talk later!! All this will have some -ve/+ve effect on currency depending on where the action happens...

usa tom 16:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
QF same here, long at 70 stopped at 60, is there still hope for 112 this week?

Nassau QF 16:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
My first USD/JPY trade in over a month and it gets stopped out.
Down 15 pips on that.

Dublin CK 16:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
San Fran

The people in Spain have NOT clearly shown they prefer to allow terrorism to pick who is in office.

They have shown that they are unwilling to be lied to, by there ex-government.

90% of Spaniards disagreed with the war in Iraq,even before the bombs.

Aznar's administration entered into something, which the public disagreed with.

You should have a look in your own back yard to see if you too are being hood winked by your administration.

Its a clear signal to the financial markets that unpopular policies will cause a change governments.

LA Mel 16:53 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
self inflicted terrorism? what the eff are you smoking lad?

LHR B747 16:53 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 16:44 GMT March 15, 2004: Does running a war all around the world makes USA a safer place?

US troops are all around the world and USA never used to be so unsafe...!!!

EUR is to go higher much higher, as the Europeans proved to be peacful and logic, the next task is to eliminate the terror cells that hide under religious masks...the Europeans know finally the problem and they will prove that bombing billions is not the answer for terror but picking up the members of those cells....they are on the right track much more than USA.

IMO

B.A. BOCA 16:51 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg // it's not so simple....many people here consider this self-inflicted terrorism..

Swiss DG 16:50 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I am not agreed, Spain have reacted because of Azanar and its governement not saying the true, like US... Just keep people inform about the true, that's it.

Nottingham 16:49 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
SanFrancisco tg 16:44 GMT


Nottingham 18:29 GMT March 12, 2004
re US equities...S&P...1104 was a fibo and bounced nicely...can extend to 1121 max (25/30 max intraday), then 1060/1070 next major target...anything more than that is more than a healthy correction...gl gt

Nottingham 21:18 GMT March 11, 2004
Ldn>>>VIX barely above 20, so much room to go...1104 is a fibo on S&P so after a bounce next week to 1121, we head for 1068 then review again imo...gl gt

Unless we close above 1121, the above scenario remains intact imo...gl gt

SanFrancisco tg 16:44 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
The people in Spain have clearly shown they prefer to allow terrorism to pick who is in office. Financial markets are not responding well to this. Does anyone think US financial markets will recover after this week and does this issue put more pressure on the Euro or the USD? Big questions that must be circulating. Any opinions?

usa tom 16:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
boy boj is really patient with the 110.7 level. Anybody think we long from here?

Ldn Hat 16:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more GBP/USD at 1.7980 target 1.7850 stop 1.8050 IMHO Thanks

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 15:07 GMT

CAD is long , agreed

usa tom 16:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab, I know your tp is at 200sma, but what is your time frame? Dont' you think we may get a bounce to .65 before we head to .62? Thanks.

Ldn Mvs 15:52 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 15:46
Tks v much - yes well tend to agree - presently short CAD myself, but tends to be more choppy at times - guess best strategy is to sit tight and not get too affected by the storm, though still respecting one's s/l...........cheers

Gold Coast martin 15:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
LDN ..all commodity currencies at the moment are going through a re-positionining phase....this phase started 2 weeks ago and it is only 60% complete...This repositioning will in the short and medium term will continue to have a downward effect on all commodity currencies...esp.the aud as it rose at a quicker rate than other currencies in the past 12 months...

Ldn Mvs 15:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin 15:35
Hi martin - do you hv any view on CAD - wondering if u share the bearish AUD view for the collective 'commodity' currencies - appreciate ur view - cheers

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
maritn, I would not be greedy, my first target on nzd is 200 sma and the 2nd one is my handle.

Will go long under .6 for any number.

sarasota jf 15:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
thats what they say - but its alot of trailing s/l too - doesnt seem to be alot of conviction to either side - it seems easy to travel in both directions at the moment

Gold Coast martin 15:35 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
good eveninfg and good morning ....finally it looks like the aud is beginning to show some direction....this is merely a continuation of the downward trend of 2days ago...i am short on aussie at 7250 as i believe it will reach the 7250 range by the end of ny session....g/l g/t

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:34 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
we miss Raden today.

jf//do you still see japs banking all their profits on crosses today?

Gen dk 15:32 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:31 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// will keep that in mind. I don't want to add sell aud too..
but the aud/jpy is v. tempting indeed.

so, sold some at 81.53 this afternoon.

I am very POOR in choosing level to close positions....the eur/jpy .....

nyc jk 15:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
lol jf. me too thats for sure.

hong kong nt 15:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab -- to reverse the near time downside bias of GBP, double btm/reverse M maybe necessary...

hong kong nt 15:27 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab -- not safe to sell aud without seeing some 200pip rebound first...

sarasota jf 15:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
jk - ive had some horrible ones that i wish i could blame on anyone but myself !!

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
jk// no worry, I understand that.

Nottingham 15:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 15:08 GMT

Before last Thursday and Friday, the last time my primary o/s was seen was July 2003...these levels are rarely held for long and I make sure I'm positioned in o/s or o/b territory for as long as it takes, usually no more than a couple of days, sometimes over a week (on average one a year from a basket of 30+ pairs)...gl gt

Ldn Mvs 15:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 14:51 GMT
Yes agree with you there - personally geared for Dow & US$ higher this week (hold a Dow 10.3k call exp APR)...we may still be seeing shake-out from falls last week, but FOMC no change should hopefully give the stock mkt a boost, and hopefully a dose of more +ve data..sometimes just gotta be a bit patient in these mkts!

nyc jk 15:15 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab I am glad you made money on it. I am not saying anything against your AUD or NZD view, I am just saying your "granny" indicator clearly does not work based on your own posts.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
jk// maybe ;)
just feel sorry about that nzd made a 500 pips move in last week.....

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Not// I am just worried about you taht you fall into trend trap. if u just trade in extreme range.... GL and GT.

nyc jk 15:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab 06:29 GMT September 2, 2003
although someone here doesn't like me to use this term, however, I really find it so TRUE!

The grandma and housewives' index are all pointing toward LONG AUD,CAD and NZD.

You should know what to do next ;)

SHORTS aud .6460 x3,


ab give it a break with the grannies. you have been saying that for many many big figures now. looks like the grannies made a lot of money on the AUD bull market and you didnt.

Nottingham 15:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 14:59 GMT March 15, 2004
seems there are still loads for the jap to unload on yen crosses.....

audjpy 1st o/s 80.5 2nd 79.80...fwiw primary o/s has been hit on both of the last two trading days before bounce came...gl gt

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
close eur/jpy for 62 pips.

waiting for the aud/jpy to close too.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
seems there are still loads for the jap to unload on yen crosses.....

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nzd breaks thru day low waiting for the 200 sma

LHR B747 14:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd : Australia and New Zeeland seems to be a nice place to retire, maybe this is the reason.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:52 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// I saw some grannies buying aud and nzd this morning....

Livingston nh 14:51 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Mvs - the strong Ind Prod figures should be very USD supportive especially when compared to EU performance

CAIRO AG 14:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
OK than GEP, ... i ll be waiting for your call anyways... thats even better for both of us.

Ldn Mvs 14:44 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dow off to a poor start so far...........down 50 ticks...only brk back above 10,240 area should get the bulls back in...poor Dow sentiment could well weigh on dollar...

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, gd evening. This 200 sma is harder than I expected.

Dallas GEP 14:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
YES AG, interest is there, having some issues with 2 different platforms currently, trying to sort those out first because ALOT of money is at stake. I also lost 2 PC's over the weekend due to a lightning strike so I am limping along a little bit equipment wise. Thanks GOD the market is slow right now!!! LOL

NOW as far as FX go, when we have mixed signals, go to longer timeframes 2-4 hours instead of say 30 minute.

Nottingham 14:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
that should be "I have seen others doing" not "I have others doing"...I'm not in control of any other traders!

CAIRO AG 14:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hello GEP... have u got my second mail...? if not interested, pls let me know. Thanks

HK Kevin 14:27 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
HI hkab, good evenng. Had joined you long USD/CAD at 1.3302

Dallas GEP 14:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
No doubt that now, dollar bulls are tweaking the pairs in their direction.

Nottingham 14:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 13:42 GMT

Not really because its not part of my strategy (I'm trading strictly overextensions or retracement plays) although I may well end up long this evening as part of a retracment play depending on what happens between now and then...anyway, I have said in the past that the 10 day sma can be used as an indicator of health and traded off accordingly...until we get contradictory closes either side for 3 days running I'd stick with this view...entry at the level and stop on the other side of 15/20 pips is something I have others doing for example...gl gt

U.K J.B. 14:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Texas ( jksn ) pnb 13.30

Thank you for your response. Obviously i do have a view on this but would take up to much space here. GL+GT

LHR B747 14:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
The queen of seas is USD friendly...Sedna is the name.
Kerry for the whitehouse and Bush to Sedna :)

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:23 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
when u see bad us data, u don't see fast and new break through retracement... but the opp. one brings the eur DOWN. So, that's enough to tell whatever needed, b747, just take care and don't hit the wrong button.

SanFrancisco tg 14:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 14:15 - Nasa is short Sterling from 8015 and making money

dc fxq 14:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 14:15 GMT - you would find gloom and doom wherever you look, Sir.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
B747, longer term maybe.
shorter term, there are plenty and one of the pieces is your last message GT and GL.

IST Sez 14:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   

U.S. FEB INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +0.7 PCT (JAN +0.8), CAP USE 76.6 PCT (76.1)

U.S. FEB MANUFACTURING OUTPUT +1.0 PCT (JAN +0.2), CAP USE 75.2 PCT (74.6)

Toronto Bogdan 14:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
what's the data anyone?

Ldn Mvs 14:16 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
IND PROD 0.7% (EXP 0.4)
CAP.UTIL. 76.6% (EXP 76.4%)

LHR B747 14:15 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab : NASA found a new planet and USD will be the currency there, I do not see any other USD positive reason around :)

ln 14:11 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
stopped out on all trades last 2-3 days awaiting some direction

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
moves showing that the spect is on the selling usd side.

Porto PJT 14:06 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
IST Sez 14:04 , thank you.gt.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nice move to take away the 136 eur/jpy for me.
now place trail there 136.07

IST Sez 14:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   

16:00 15Mar2004 RTRS-TRSY-US JAN NET CAPITAL INFLOWS TOTALED $100.2 BLN VS NET INFLOWS $80.8 BLN DEC

16:00 15Mar2004 RTRS-FOREIGNERS' JAN NET BUYS OF US TREASURIES $46.9 BLN VS $29.8 BLN NET BUYS DEC

16:00 15Mar2004 RTRS-FOREIGNERS' JAN NET BUYS OF US STOCKS $12.8 BLN VS $13.38 BLN NET BUYS IN DEC


hk ab nzd 0.6 14:02 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
any triggering news?

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:01 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 13:34 GMT March 15, 2004
false direction usually retrace fast.....

Paris coachtrading.com 13:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
£/$ Long above 1.8060

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:53 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// a piece to support to sell usd is eur/gbp above .68.... but it may take a lagging effect.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:45 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// that will break the 100 sma, don't think it could easily make it without a good player setting in now.

The whole bunch actually is now settling and wait for longer term direction.

sgp sp 13:44 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nottingham, I flat at the moment, looking for an entry into either a long or short. :)

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:42 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Not// interested in openning longs?

LHR B747 13:40 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF: The PI data from a doctor's point of view says "the patient is dying slower than expected" - is this a good news?

Nottingham 13:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
cad traders keep an eye on 10 day sma (currently testing)...a break below there if confirmed on close is bearish and could cap the pair for some days...gl gt

Nassau QF 13:37 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve in March. The general business conditions index fell from February's level, but remained solidly positive at 25.3.
http://www.ny.frb.org/research/regional_economy/empiresurvey_overview.html

LHR B747 13:37 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 13:35 GMT March 15, 2004: be careful, bad US data must cause higher USD...do not beleive logic people in the crazy trade :)

Nottingham 13:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ln 13:21 GMT

On first glance that risk reward might not seen appealing, but if that person is using a system which has a 60% success rate, then that system would still produce a positive return based on that risk reward...

hong kong nt 13:35 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab -- my wife guess usd/cad is heading 1.30 line...

Belgrade Knez 13:35 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   

Anybody have data?

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:34 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
false direction usually retrace fast.....

GENEVA FHR 13:34 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Empire State Index 25.3 against 42.1

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 13:33 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ref:my last post,i meant:

1)Set a limit:Don't use more trading margin than that,no matter what and even if your signals provider says so.

TIA:-)

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:32 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
entered 2nd at 1.3290
now long 4 lots.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:31 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
putting another entry at daily sma 20.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:30 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
entered first lot 1.33

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 13:30 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
U.K J.B. 12:57 GMT March 15, 2004

Sorry I don't really comment much here nowdays,but just a suggestion.If you take heed of a good avisor and stick with him,it adds to your own trading instinct.

No one can be right all the time,not even BOJ. LOL ;-) But take a good pick of a provider and then stick with him/her for at least 1 year.That would do you more good than harmAnd yes,don't trust anyone,but before that get to pick a good signals provider and trust just him,but use proper money management.

typical newbies after trading for some months,finding their provider to be good on an average get greedy! that's where the doom starts.

Disciplined approach:

1)Set a limit:Don't use fortrading margin that,no matter what and even if your signals provider says so.

2)Don't get emotional on a trade.

if we never trusted anyone,we wouldnever have got into kindergarten and grduated upto a degree level.at some point,you have to trust someone,maybe just one person,especially since you may not know the nuisances all by yourself.

-All imvho.

But of course you knew this all along I am sure.
TIA:-)

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:29 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// I would concern about the jpy cross on gbp/jpy.
if it doesn't break the s/t t/l now at around 199, gbp will be a buy.

France Lucky Strike 13:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ln 13:21 GMT March 15, 2004
new low was the hourly low at 1.8010, so I got caught...I'll try again above 1.8040

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham, I hope u know how to play risk aversion....
eur/aud after making such a strong up move will take a break and then, another one soon.

Nottingham 13:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 13:13 GMT

Both euraud+nzd crosses are trading around their 200 day sma, having failed to close above them last Friday despite trading some +1% above those averages intraday...if we don't get closes above these averages soon, risk is that your levels will be seen...also unless we see higher levels than last week, long term downtrends are still intact given we still have lower peaks + lower troughs...gl gt

hong kong nt 13:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GBP, time to buy, stop 1.7990...

nyc fxdh 13:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I am long gbp/usd at 22 any thoughts

ln 13:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
France Lucky Strike 12:29 GMT:

"Long on pound at 1.8040, stop on a new low, target 1.8140"

so you are willing to risk 140 pips for a gain of 100 pips. mmm you might want to have a look at this one.

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 13:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd should be a good sell i think around this time,though wish i had added to short higher up there.

anyway,these 30 minutes shall tell if it bounces off the lows or makes a BIG DENT rite thru it.

I think bias is more for BIG DENT than Uplift MENT!

Now that was poetic!

how many are favoring a 1.8000 crack in next 1 hour or so?

Back to work.
TIA:-) and espl. Qindex to you.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hopefully to see some longer run after Wed on aud/nzd.

ln 13:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Athens, well done. Very nice to hear from you. Now less of this chit chat and give us some of your fab views...

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:13 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
My new trading idea is to buy eur/aud at some fib level, ideally 1.64 and 1.65 area for the next leg up. But this beast is crazy watch out.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
athens
welcome .

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Good to see Athens comments again. Thank you for your comments.

Stockholm za 13:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
YES... Sell Here + Buy Here = 0 Intel

France Lucky Strike 13:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
U.K J.B. 12:57 GMT March 15, 2004

Absolutly true! Newbies, DO NOT TRUST ANYONE!

U.K J.B. 12:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
You should read Your

U.K J.B. 12:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
It is quite simple really. DO YOU OWN ANALYSING. Anyone who takes a position based on someone else's view is a recipe for disaster. You wont need to bitch when it goes wrong. This Forum is very informative for a general view of what is going on in the Forex world.

WELCOME WELCOME 12:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
WELCOME BACK ATHENS

hk ab nzd 0.6 12:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
welcome back Athens.

Athens 12:42 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 02:43, wrong attitude in my opinion. If one needs some support one finds a source which is right MORE OFTEN THAN NOT (no one is right all the times) and then sticks to that source, locking out the rest of the noise. Reading all views and trying to reach sound trading decisions simply doesn't work. I might even say it is a recipe for confusion and finally disaster as some will have it right and some wong at times but unfortunately not consistently so. Good trading.

LHR B747 12:37 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Sydney bl : yes - target is to see Powell leaving Pakistan without OBL :)

Melbourne o 12:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
bl
EUR/USD watch for a short

GVI john 12:34 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2280…$/yen 110.70
DJIA -36 pts… 10-yr 3.72%, -5 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
I can understand why the Spanish voters ousted the Popular Party in the elections Sunday, that is what democracy is all about, but I fear it sends Al Qaeda, and its affiliated organizations the wrong message. I wish that the new Prime Minister had opted to remove the token Spanish contingent from Iraq quietly. The result of this vote will be to make the U.K., Italy and the U.S. higher profile targets in the months ahead. A major explosion reportedly was averted outside of the U.S. embassy in Karachi, Pakistan.

The markets don’t really know what to do with the news, so they almost instinctively have sold the dollar. That’s not a surprise, but I sense this new bearishness lacks conviction and momentum support. I feel that the dollar is vulnerable, but somehow I don’t think the timing is quite right now for another sell-off.

I’m reading that foreign flows into Japanese stocks and bonds have resumed and that some fiscal yearend repatriations are at work. In past years, the impact of repatriations has started to wane as the month end draws closer. Talk is that the Ministry of Finance wants to see the $/yen above 110.00 for the fiscal yearend to bolster the value of BOJ forex reserves in yen terms and to improve the translation of foreign earnings of Japanese firms.

Today sees some pretty significant data with the Treasury’s TIC report due, the Empire State PMI and February Industrial Production on tap. On Tuesday, monetary policy decisions are due from the Fed and BOJ. No rate changes are seen from the Fed any time soon. There is an outside chance the BOJ might inject more reserves into the system as it has been having trouble recently financing its forex intervention.
CALENDAR
MONDAY, MARCH 15, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- March Empire State Manufacturing Index: vs. 42.1 in Feb
14:15 GMT- US- Feb Industrial Production: vs. +0.8% in Jan
14:15 GMT- US- Feb Capacity Utilization: vs. 76.2% in Jan

TUESDAY, MARCH 16, 2004
23:30 GMT- AUS- January Lending Finance, vs. -0.8%
06:00 GMT-JPN- BOJ Monthly Report
BOJ Policy Board Meeting
09:30 GMT- UK: Feb Retail Price Index: vs. -0.5%, +1.4% in Jan
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Housing Starts: vs. 1.903 mln units in Jan
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Manufacturing Survey
19:15 GMT- US- FOMC decision

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17, 2004
23:30 GMT- AUS- Westpac Leading Economic Index
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Unemployment- vs. -13,400 in Jan
09:30 GMT- UK- Minutes of March 3-4 BOE Monetary Policy Committee meeting
11:00 GMT- EUR- Jan Industrial Output: vs. +0.2% in Dec
11:00 GMT- EUR- Feb final CPI: vs. preliminary +1.6% y/y
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:30 GMT- US- Feb CPI: vs. +0.5%, +0.2% ex-food & energy
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories

THURSDAY MARCH 18, 2004
RBA Monthly Bulletin
23:30 GMT- AUS- 4Q03 Dwelling Commencements, vs. +5.5%
23:50 GMT- JPN- Weekly Portfolio Flows
01:30 GMT- JPN- 20-YR JGB Auction
09:30 GMT- UK- Feb Retail Sales Volume: vs. +6.4% y/y in Jan
12:00 GMT- CDA- February CPI, vs. +2.2% y/y

13:30 GMT- CDA- February International Securities Transactions
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US- Feb Leading Economic Index: vs. +0.5% in Jan
17:00 GMT- US- Mar Philly Fed Index: vs. 31.4 in Feb

FRIDAY, MARCH 19, 2004
JPN- Minutes of Feb 4-5 BOJ Meeting
07:00 GMT- GER- Feb Producer prices: vs. -0.2% in Jan
UK- Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin

Sydney bl 12:29 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
does anybody long EUR/USD at moment

France Lucky Strike 12:29 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Long on pound at 1.8040, stop on a new low, target 1.8140

London Rhood 12:26 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Its not possible , you would have to be a bank.

hk ab nzd 0.6 12:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
geez... dlr/cad missed by 3 pips!

Global-View 12:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Genève JZ 12:21 GMT March 15, 2004 - please email us

hk ab nzd 0.6 12:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi friends,

seem everyone do NOT remember that March is not over yet...

eur/jpy and aud/jpy play alrit...

Qindex, I am really interested to see if gbp/jpy is mighty to look for 192....

Genève JZ 12:21 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
We are a small trading firm that has as its goal making trades on the forex markets through the EBS or Reuters platforms. We had contacts with these two firms but it has been answered that their business policy is to offer their platforms to the banks only . Can someone suggest us please a way or trick that allows a not banking firm to be able to make deals on EBS and Reuters platform?

Washington MMM 12:06 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Good morning.....Any views on USD/CAD ?
Thanks

Nottingham 11:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
All major currency pairs against dollar have made good technical retracements...those looking to short dollar may want to wait for a pullback first as we are yet to come up against the week's first wave of dollar buying...gl gt

Melbourne o 11:48 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
the eur/usd is on the brink of completing a head and shoulder on a 5 min chart.

It could go either way ???

France Lucky Strike 11:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta JacK 11:22 GMT March 15, 2004
I think that if we hit a new high on eur/usd, then the next target is around 1.2350/40

Dhahran maz 11:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hello
How may I make order before the news taking affect?

Jakarta JacK 11:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
So, anyone know where the euro heading?

LHR B747 11:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:58 GMT : good call.

looks like 1.2280 level will cause 100pips-150pips moverment, I wish I knew to which direction :)

Madrid CAB 11:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 11:10 GMT March 15, 2004
Thank you Sir.

LHR B747 11:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Madrid CAB: I pray with all of you that this is the last time we are victims of the evil, may we all enjoy a better tomorrow for our children...!!!

It is our duty to keep in our memory the innocent victims who just wanted to reach work/destination by train.

Madrid CAB 11:06 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
France Lucky Strike 11:02 GMT March 15, 2004
Mercy beacoup Monsieur

France Lucky Strike 11:02 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
3 minutes of silence please.....

Melbourne Qindex 11:01 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Brazil, JH 11:00 GMT - You are welcome.

Brazil, JH 11:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dr Qindex, Thanks...

Melbourne Qindex 10:58 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:02 GMT March 15, 2004
EUR/JPY : After expansing the range 134.90 - 136.50


... // 134.90* -135.30 - 135.70 - 136.10 - 136.50* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 09:00 GMT March 15, 2004
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 134.90 - 136.50.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:58 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
be carefull !! eur/usd is on the support at 1.2283.

Melbourne Qindex 10:58 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT March 15, 2004
USD/JPY : As shown in my current 22-day cycle a quantised level is positioning at 111.06. Projected supporting points are expected at 109.79 and 110.57.

Melbourne Qindex 10:57 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 08:15 GMT March 15, 2004
GBP/USD : The market is consolidating around the critical level of my weekly cycle.

... // 1.8010* - 1.8037 - 1.8063 - 1.8089 - 1.8115*// ...


Melbourne Qindex 10:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:44 GMT March 15, 2004
EUR/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle is projected at 1.2116 - 1.2325 and the mid-point reference is 1.2220.

Melbourne Qindex 01:42 GMT March 15, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.1755 ... 1.1910 ... (1.1972) ... 1.2127 // 1.2158 - (1.2189) - 1.2220 - 12251 - 1.2282 // 1.2313 ...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf when at 1.2720.
I want to see what will happen in 2 minutes. maybe go down.

Gen dk 10:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:23 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd now ready to move up again from 1.8085.

LHR B747 10:17 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq: no way, I am sharing my opinion with all of you around as I beleive that it may help to take the right moves.

I am not ANTI, I am PRO...pro people, pro life..!!!!!

Melbourne Qindex 10:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:56 GMT March 15, 2004
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 0.7041 ... 0.7133 ... 0.7225 // 0.7255 - 0.7286 - (0.7317) - 0.7347 - 0.7378 - 0.7409 // 0.7439 ...


In the mean time the market is vibrating around 0.7317 with an expected magnitude of 31 pips. The odds are in favour of taking short position.

dc fxq 10:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
LHR - take it to the political forum. You are on an anti-Bush rant now.

Melbourne Qindex 10:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:20 GMT March 14, 2004
AUD/JPY : On Monday the daily cycle normal trading range is 80.31 - 82.19. The distribution profile of my daily cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between the following ranges :-

.. // 80.31 - 80.68 - 81.06 - 81.44 // ... 82.19 ...

LHR B747 10:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: President Bush declared a worldwide global war on terrorism, he failed to show real global support for his plans.
Bottom line shows that regimes who supportted Bush were fallen out of support by their citizens - means people choose to stay away from USA (including USD).

IMO

chicago cal 10:03 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
bot euro's at 1.2290 for 1.2450 gl,gt

Dallas GEP 09:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
From a pure resources standpoint, Spanish and Italian support of the Iraqi situation was token. I believe because of that we will not see a huge swing north for the Euro. The US reaction after 911 was and still is absolute rage towards the terrorist situation, the same I might add for the Spanish attack. Bush politically in my view was willing to take the hit politically to intensify the efforts against terrorism but the reaction in Spain politically appear to have intially at least been quite different.

saloniko 2004 nk 09:55 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

shanghai bc 02:23 GMT March 15, 2004

BC..
Will keep in mind ur words and i agree with ur post but wondering while u are recruiting officer did u ever see that sometimes young fox are better than old fox??cos many times i saw a raw recruit was much better than old one..

Life lesson..lol

nk


LHR B747 09:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
A good read : http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=au13B9AUk.CQ&refer=us

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:50 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Interesting on eur/usd hanging up on the last retracement line this may be the time to take the pips and run or ride this one to the bitter end. Will it be 50 or 80 pips well this is always when emotions can kill a trader IMHO. GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf when at 1.2736
sell to get 1.2676 as minimum target.
before 12 hours from now will get soooo big selling emotion.

LHR B747 09:42 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
It is known who is the new PM elect in Spain, when the news about the new FM reach the air it will be loud and clear message that Spain joins France and Germany in their policies.
Spain goes out of Iraq, and takes their blind support of USA away, this is the bottom line of the elections and the question left open regarding FX trading is only onë "how much this worth"

Dallas GEP 09:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
There's no doubt in my mind that the effort to capture OBL probably has intensified the last 72 hours although the US will not officially confirm that of course. IF and that is a big IF, they have a general idea of where he is, I have no doubt they will tighten the noose. Whether this results in his capture anytime soon is debatable, but there is little doubt in my mind IMO, he will be captured or killed within a relatively short period of time IMO.

LHR B747 09:28 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP: you are right, Spain followed the US in full and the result is terror in the country and change of regime that will pull from Iraq their soliders.
It will take few more hours to hedge the positions and than EUR will takeoff as it looks like Italy will follow (pull their soliders from Iraq) and does not matter how many TV stations their PM own.
I do not see any reason on earth for short EUR at the moment.

Dallas GEP 09:23 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Movement has been too sluggish to show us a CLEAR direction although there has been some dollar sell off. IP figures comes out 13:30 that may be catalyst. Inital thought was 1.2300 would be short area and 1.8100 would be good short for pound but I DO NOT have confirmation of that yet. Spanish election and attack appear to have been taken as US negative.

hk ab nzd .6 09:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
first entry eur/jpy 136.30 short.

Dallas GEP 09:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
.7290

Jakarta JacK 09:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi GEP, any comments on Euro and cable for today?

Warsaw Brysio 09:16 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, GEP

What is your profit target on AUSSSIE?

Dallas GEP 09:15 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
That would be .7345!!!

Dallas GEP 09:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Well I am short now on AUSSIE from .7245 off a SELL order. If not in AUSSIE short yet tho I might wait until .7375-.7400 level. I do like this level because is it a pivot of sorts.

hk ab nzd .6 09:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
tom// yes, the nzd shorts are still there, but put a stop around .6783(bid).

want to see some big boys move the aud/nzd into the right direction.

hk ab nzd .6 09:09 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
aud/cad fast and furious down move seems resume soon rather than retrace.

gtg now, see ya all later in NY.

usa tom 09:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab I agree the eur/jpy move seems fake. Are you still holding nzd shorts? Where can we see that in the next couple days? TIA.

Brisbane L 09:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Talk of 7250 Expiries llater today

hk ab nzd .6 09:02 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
It's always the biggest question mark for the rotten eur econ. to engage in high eur. Many m/t "fortune teller" want to short at 1.25....

Cairns Aussie 09:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
IMOH....Nice pick

FWIW I got a intraday buy signal around 1.2250-60 area for at least 40-80 pips IMHO. GL GT

sgp sp 08:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nottingham, thanks for the piece of info......

gl & gt 2 u.....

Nottingham 08:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 07:36 GMT

cad has now fulfilled minimum criteria for week (1.3330) and so is now free of this particular downside pressure...1.3305 and 1.3286 are potential supports, the latter would mark the 10 day sma today (if level seen) and for bulls to remain in control, a close above there is key...gl gt

hk ab nzd .6 08:50 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
all eyes are on the faky eur/jpy move.

like rolling balls in the fire.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
now is not good for hope eur/usd make swing to 1.2230, because 1.2275 be broken again.
welcome to 1.2305 fro short term trade.

hk ab nzd .6 08:44 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
place limit to add dlr/cad long 1.3304.

Melbourne Qindex 08:37 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hk ab nzd .6 08:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// do u think they will NOT get that "better level"? Then, sell the low?

hk ab nzd .6 08:32 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I will ask Jay for your phone number.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
usd/chf when at 1.2750
on the support

hong kong nt 08:25 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab -- c9 talking about selling euro at a slightly better level...

hong kong nt 08:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab -- no email rec'd, u may call my mobile...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ok. eur/usd have get 1.2275 and have given message about 1.2305 as minor resistant. ideal 1.2480-86.
wait at 12230 for buy. maybe from 1.2275 chart will make swing until 1.2230 as good for buy level.

Brisbane JM 08:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Good evening all, I was away last Thursday and Friday and missed all the action.... I am still holding my AUD shorts, was targeting low 73's but went on holidays without a TP level. I will watch tonight and decide where to exit. G/L G/T

Brisbane L 08:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
UBS says latest IMM data for spec currency futures as at Mar 9 shows ongoing liquidation of short USD positions. Net spec EUR/USD longs fell to 26k from 32k wk prior, lowest since Sep '03. Cable longs slipped to 21.6k from 25.2k while AUD longs stood at 23k, lowest since Sep '03. JPY bucked the trend with net-shorts falling to 29.4k from 21k reflecting USD/JPY peak on Mar 5
reuters.newswire

Melbourne Qindex 08:15 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.


sgp sp 08:15 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, a case will be waiting for you. :)

hk ab nzd .6 08:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nt// What's your C9 index today?

I sent you an email, have you received it?

hk ab nzd .6 08:13 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
sp// if I go to Singapore, don't forget my drink/Carlsberg! ;)

Melbourne Qindex 08:11 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Texas(Jksn.) PNB 07:52 GMT - GBP/USD : It is likely that the market will consolidate around my weekly cycle "critial level".

sgp sp 08:11 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, aud/nzd was longed at your last train at 1.12......

sgp sp 08:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, long aud/nzd....small one. I think I will leave usd/jpy alone.....

hk ab nzd .6 08:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
am very interested to eur/jpy at the moment too.

hk ab nzd .6 08:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
sp// I opend short dlr/jpy at fig. as well. and aud/jpy.

aud/nzd, did you long or short? which level?

Texas(Jksn.) PNB 07:52 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Qindex your target of 1.78XX levels on gbp/usd:GBP/USD seems to be heading higher and the strong downward momentum does seem to be seen.

your comments pls.what's a good sl level if shorted gbp/usd already.

TIA:-)

Ldn Hat 07:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt sorry but fundamentals show otherwise. IMHO

sgp sp 07:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I closed my usd/cad last friday, didn't want to hold this pair over the weekend, minding what nottingham had said abt its retracement habits.......now, only the small aud/nzd possie.

gl & gt 2 u....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:26 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Sorry that was for the eur/usd pair.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:26 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I got a intraday buy signal around 1.2250-60 area for at least 40-80 pips IMHO. GL GT

hong kong nt 07:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GBP -- unless 1.78 line is broken on daily basis, upside bias for 1.85 this week...

Aden PK 07:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hi freinds, GBP/USD has now broken short term resistance at 1.8060 and proably will now hold above 1.8015, so get ready to see now 1.8150-70 which hold for today, risk/reward permit to short at this higher levels.

Melbourne Qindex 07:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : As shown in my current 22-day cycle a quantised level is positioning at 111.06. Projected supporting points are expected at 109.79 and 110.57.

hong kong nt 07:03 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Hat 06:54 -- short term outlook of EURGBP and GBPJPY may indicate otherwise...fwiw

Melbourne Qindex 07:01 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : As shown in my current 22-day cycle a quantised level is positioning at 111.06.

Melbourne Qindex 06:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Ldn Hat 06:54 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Shorted GBP/USD at 1.8070 stop 1.8150 target 1.7980 IMHO Thanks

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:40 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd hope can be broken 1.8081 to get 1.8137

hk ab nzd .6 06:27 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
short small aud/jpy 81.52

hk ab nzd .6 06:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
note eur/gbp heading towards daily sma 10 now.

hk ab nzd .6 06:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
the yen crosses are the play.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
good for sell usd/jpy now when at 110.94
good start.

chester wb 06:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
if euro gets past 1.2250 level, next daily resis. is @ 1.2336 area. that would be a good level to short from for continuation of down trend. provided there is no new terror attacks. imho

hk ab nzd .6 05:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
aud/nzd// Is anyone ready to see 1.15?

Brisbane L 05:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Dollar recovers lost ground
Mar 15 07:47
AAP
The Australian dollar recovered some ground at the start of trading on Monday after last week falling to its lowest since December. At 7am (AEDT), the local currency was trading at US73.68¢ compared with Friday's close of US72.84¢. The Australian dollar shed as much as US4¢ last week after soft economic data and the Madrid terrorist attacks placed downward pressure on the currency. The local unit recovered almost US1¢ in Friday night trading as investors stepped in to buy the currency. National Australia Bank currency strategist Greg McKenna said that according to technical indicators, the currency was looking oversold, and that had led to the overnight bounce. "The fact that the Aussie bounced so well from the mid-72 US cent level suggest that there might be some support there for a few days," Mr McKenna said. In a month's time however, Mr McKenna is forecasting the Australian dollar to be lower. Last week, risk aversion and a growing view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might not further raise interest rates as had been widely expected drove the currency lower. In Monday's trading, the Australian dollar should find buying support at US72.70¢ and sell orders at around US74¢, Mr McKenna said.



lahore 05:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
After the Spain terrorist attacks the world will be a different. Europe is on the way to stay so dangerous as USA. Any new police measures will bring more expenses by the budget of the European countries in the Euro Zone. The economic events during the coming week start on Monday with NY Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production. On Tuesday is the key FOMC meeting. On Wednesday expect CPI and on Thursday comes US Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed. The downward correction during the coming week will continue and we could see levels below 1.20. We expect to see the bottom at about 1.18.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:10 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
brisbane sunstate 05:00 GMT March 15, 2004
my friend.. I don't have selling position of usd/jpy.
I am not kidding with that.
sure not my bias trade emotion.
before europe market.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:06 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab.
gbp/usd now is only will get the support (not for trend) in my TA for weekly and monthly chart.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:05 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab.
no I am not kidding with 1.9139.
that's my long term position. that's my client case of his out of control. :-)
ya.. I still look gbp/usd bullish for long term.
only swing only if we see the weekly or monthly chart.

melbourne farmacia 05:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab - should be a nice payout for you. GT

hk ab nzd .6 05:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
waiting for sell signal on dlr/jpy as well.

now flat on yen.

brisbane sunstate 05:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:49
ok raden. just moved stop on long jpy to b/e just in case. your cristal ball is always better than mine :-)
gl,gt

hk ab nzd .6 04:59 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:56 GMT March 15, 2004
brisbane sunstate 04:47 GMT March 15, 2004
I suggest to my clienty for usd/jpy selling, but he don't want to entry.LOL
I want fax him chart usd/jpy tomorrow. LOL
I got thousand pips floating loss until now for gbp/usd for long term trade. ..must be survive with Mr_co_z is the same ship. I have buy position at 1.9139 and be averaged
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Raden, you are not kidding on your last line?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
brisbane sunstate 04:47 GMT March 15, 2004
I suggest to my clienty for usd/jpy selling, but he don't want to entry.LOL
I want fax him chart usd/jpy tomorrow. LOL
I got thousand pips floating loss until now for gbp/usd for long term trade. ..must be survive with Mr_co_z is the same ship. I have buy position at 1.9139 and be averaged until now. My position are hungry now to get pips profit. LOL
but be controled/be helped by short term trade action.
I hope chart will help my floating loss. :-)

hk ab nzd .6 04:55 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, thanks for your advice on the nzd.

my option will be matured in 2 days.

Stockholm DG 04:55 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Morning

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:49 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
In my TA usd/jpy is on the danger level for buy position.
chart can be get so big selling emotion to get 107.66 .
from here. (110.94)

brisbane sunstate 04:47 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:43
Raden be careful with usd/jpy that pair defy conventional wisdom LOL
gl.gt

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I look usd/jpy now is on the strong resistant.
good for sell now when at 110.90.
no reason for buy in my TA

Cairns OS 04:38 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Posted: Mar 15 Forecasts and trade recommendations for 10 pairs at http://www.fxguide.net/

melbourne farmacia 04:24 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
usa tom 02:39 GMT March 15, 2004
No - because i don't play this pair.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 04:20 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai ht,
under selling pressure now.
nearest station is at 110.56 ; 10.31 ; 110.00
I want to see what will happen when at that numbers.

shanghai ht 03:51 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Indonisia Solo, What is your opinion on the usd/jpy right now?
Thanks!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:49 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Technical Analysis
15 March 2004

GBP/USD (when at 1.8003)
· Level 1.7925 is the key resistant and have be broken. That’s mean price still under pressure of selling emotion to get minimal 1.7835. Level 1.7835 is very important because give you chance to get 1.8225 again as minimum target for today, but if today can not move to get 1.8225 from low 1.7835, for tomorrow we can forget about 1.8225 but focuse on 1.8270 (1.8225 is not important number again). Level 1.7835 is the end resistant for bullish continuation to get 1.9500. Price have get confirmation to get minimal 1.7835-13 because have shown you 1.7945.
· If price show you 1.7805 that’s mean price will be easy to get strong resistant at 1.7768-47. Be carefull with this area because this area is very strong resistant. Seen so many buying order placement here for long term trade. So price can move strong up to get railway in up trend from this area. But if price show you 1.7725 chart will get the key answer to get bearish situation and if like this we can hope to get 1.7413 or 1.7347. Hope not thinking buy again if price show you like this, but be carefull when price at 1.7413 or 1.7347 because buying order placement there too.
· Until now still not yet valid if we thinking price will get bearish situation and so we can still valid to hope 1.9295. Placement order sell for long term is very danger now because get bad on risk rewards ratio. Until now placement buying order for long term trade is better than selling.
· For daily trade good level for sell is at 1.8016 or 1.8052 or 1.8137. Good level for buy is at 1.7835-15 area or 1.7760-47 as the bottom area.

Eur/usd(when at 1.2220)
· Level 1.2054 is the key level and have been broken that’s mean price will get next resistant at 1.1952 as minor resistant to make swing only to get 1.2290 or 1.2624 as maximal swing. If price show you 1.1940 that’s mean price will down to get 1.1828 as the bottom for longterm bullish continuation to get 1.3020. But if price show you 1.1800 that’s mean price will get 1.1760-26. Be carefull with this area because can make buying emotion to get minimal 1.2387.
· For daily trade price still have chance to get 1.2480-86. Good level for selling order placement is at 1.2427 –1.2480-86 or 1.2275. But good level for buying is at 1.2139 – 29. Priice have get 1.2195-82 and give you chance as extreme bottom swing to move up for trend to get 1.2882. But although price move until 1.2668 that’s mean up trend still not yet get clear signal. Until now long term target at 1.2889 is still valid to hope with assumtion price move from low 1.2054.

USD/CHF(when at 1.2814)
· Target level 1.2591 is still valid to be hoped with assumtion move from high 1.3073.and price have given message to get 1.2551.Be carefull if show 1.3088 that’s mean as indication that price will test high at 1.3329 as the extreme top. If price show you 1.2530 that’s mean will get 1.2436-13 as extreme bottom.
· Objective level is at 1.2552 still valid to be hoped. Be carefull with this level because can make buying emotion. Objective level that can be hoped for today is 1.2630 or 1.2591. be carefull with that level because can bring price move up emotion. The selling pressure will be so big if show you 1.2400 to get 1.2040.
· For daily trade good selling placement order is at 1.2968 or 1.3015 and good level for buying is at 1.2777 – 1.2597 - 1.2551 or 1.2436-13.

USD/JPY(when at 110.76)
· Price have get confirmation to get 109.58 with assumtion move from start point at 111.60. Be carefull with 109.58 because very potential as the bottom but not for up trend( (only swing movement). But please thinking buy when at 110.00 because that number is potential get buying emotion.
· If 109.58 be get, there is high possibility to get next level at 108.73-51. This movement able to carry to get spiral movement until 105.39 as bottom price.
· Price is on the selling emotion as the reaction from 112.30. if price show you that’s mean price will get the nearest target 113.44.. If price show you 112.45 that’s mean price will up to get nearest target at 113.44. This level give you chance for move down so far, but if show you 113.60 that’s mean price still will up to get 114.99. This level is very potential as the top.Confirmation to get 117.94 if show you 115.20.
· For daily trade, good levels for buy is at 110.00 or 109.58 for swing chance only.Good selling level is at 111.71 – 112.78 and now price is on the way selling emotion from high 111.42 like my view yesterday.



Best regards,
Raden Mas

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
good morning !

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Hello I hope everyone had a good weekend. Farmacia, Qindex, BC and others good info in the forum today thanks everybody I wish Athen was still here. In my charts it looks like you are right Farmacia eur/usd is behaving like GEP says a puppy with two tails and ready to bust on way or the other and it looks like today or tomorrow we should get an indication on where it is going. Farmacia I sent you e-mail if you don’t mind thanks. I have a possible end of the line for the dollar bears if the 1.2550-2600 area is taken over by the bulls. If 1.2170 holds up then we have rough retracement to 1.2255-60, 1.2280-85 and 1.2305-10 area. Resistance is 1.2250-60 and 1.2275-85 at the moment with the 1hr 20ma holding up the show for the moment IMHO. GL GT

shanghai ht 03:30 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
what is the direction of usd/jpy? thanks!

st. pete islander 03:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GZ ..... Don't tell me! Let me guess! Uh .... Oh, I know! It's from a scene in "Rocky IV". Right?!

Sydney bl 03:22 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon and good morning guys, good luck to you all

Gold Coast martin 03:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
GZ....this forex trader must be long on hope and short on brains....

brisbane sunstate 03:14 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
gz TLY 03:04
Geez it must be full moon
gl.

hk revdax 03:12 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:23 //The fx departments in many banks in HK i know have to perform and at the same time generate enough commission for the departments' overheads. That is where the real conflicts lie. So the traders keep picking tops and bottoms throughout the day and end up with mostly misery.

gz TLY 03:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
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Eilat Dolphin 02:46 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
bc/ Add Farmacia of course and ab and Rev... after all, we integrate them for good in our mental process before execution!

Provo John 02:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab, fine thank you though busier than I want to be. Have not played $Cad as much this year, been on gbp$ mostly lately. Good trades.

Eilat Dolphin 02:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
bc/ Happy to hear! thus, if we listen to those Bright&Best tops and bottoms, + Deutche Bank + Sexo B + Stanly Morgan + Quindex + Athens + Gep + OGA + nh + dk + Solo Raden + etc, minus myself (because I never know), we should, (I stress should imvho) know where the market goes...

WTF needs 8 indicaors multiplied by 8 charts on all time frames to know the the E will go down this week. Or the opposite.

usa tom 02:39 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
pharmacia, are you longing nzd?

hk ab nzd .6 02:35 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Provo John 02:23 GMT March 15, 2004

Thanks! How are you lately? still playing dlr/cad?

farmacia// thanks very much too.

melbourne farmacia 02:29 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd .6 02:15 GMT March 15, 2004
The next NZD leg looks like 0.6570/80 if todays high goes.

shanghai bc 02:23 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   

REVDAX -- That is because most inexperienced fellas in forex departments even in first division clubs try to pick the tops and bottoms believing that is where the real big money is.. And ego demonstration and bonus consideration comes into play too for smart college graduates..The first thing I do when facing new recruits is, do my best to destroy their ego and fear in the market first..Once their ego and fear are reasonably cured,they become dutiful followers of the market like Pavlov's hounds and they can survive..And once they can survive,they can be taught on how to put temporary tops and bottoms to the market at much higher level of speculation school..Then,that may take at least a decade of training too..

Provo John 02:23 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
ab, RBNZ Governor Bollard's is to appear Wednesday before parliament finance committee. Supposedly will state somthing to the effect that intervention "unlikely unless Kiwi trades at extreme levels." This has the potential of being Nzd positive if the market percieves the recent drop a overreaction.

Brisbane L 02:18 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Quite a lot of negative factors in the way of the Aud especially after the Madrid bombing, RBA wont want to raise rates in a uncertain world , interest rates looking like they have peaked and now we have the Risk Aversion trades ( buy chf sell aus) yet again. Hoping this Madrid event doesnt put Labour into power here as Opposition Leader, Mark Latham is as volitiles as the Aussie Dollar

hk ab nzd .6 02:15 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
don't know whether the friends here notice or not, the downleg of nz got larger and larger in daily.

1st one 300 pips from .71
2nd one 350 pips from .6950
3rd one 500 pips from .6850.


any chance for a 4th one?

hk revdax 02:09 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Q//You may be right. I heard that they have been disasters in general. Looking back in retrospective, people could not help but wondering why on earth results like that could have been materiailzed given the beautiful uptrend of Euro for the past 6 months. i suppose the answer to that lies in that fund managers are operating on pretty tight formulae.

Melbourne Qindex 02:07 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY It is going to penetrate through 134.90 and will tackle the quantised levels at 131.71 and 133.31 later this week.

hk ab nzd .6 02:05 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
maybe eur/jpy trains come earlier....

Melbourne Qindex 02:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 02:01 GMT - I have no idea. I know NAB is very bad here in Australia.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2235 1.2250 1.2268 1.2282 1.2297 1.2314 1.2343
LOWER BANDS 1.2207 1.2192 1.2174 1.2160 1.2146 1.2128 1.2099

hk ab nzd .6 02:02 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone ready for another nz roller coaster?


nk// I miss your view very much!

hk revdax 02:01 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Q//How have the managed fx funds in general throughout the world been doing for the past 6 months? TIA

Dallas GEP 02:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
I got an AUSSIE sell order @ .7345 Nothing else yet.

Melbourne Qindex 01:56 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:56 GMT March 15, 2004
AUD/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 0.7041 ... 0.7133 ... 0.7225 // 0.7255 - 0.7286 - (0.7317) - 0.7347 - 0.7378 - 0.7409 // 0.7439 ...


In the mean time the market is vibrating around 0.7317 with an expected magnitude of 31 pips. The odds are in favour of taking short position.

brisbane L 01:52 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Australian Dollar May Fall on View Rate Increase Delayed
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's dollar may fall as declines in job creation and confidence among businesses and consumers dampen expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its 5.25 percent overnight cash-rate target.
LINK

Melbourne Qindex 01:43 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:42 GMT March 15, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.1755 ... 1.1910 ... (1.1972) ... 1.2127 // 1.2158 - (1.2189) - 1.2220 - 12251 - 1.2282 // 1.2313 ...


The mid-point reference of 1.2220 - 1.2251 is 1.2236. If the market is trading below 1.2173 the chances are high that we have seen the daily high already. If the downward pressure is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier, the next target is 1.1972. It is very unlikely if impossible to see 1.1755 today but the probability value is building up around this quantised level.

Brisbane L 01:36 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
N.Z. Interest Rate Will Be Unchanged in April: Survey

Link

brisbane L 01:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Quite a lot of differing views at present according to some Newswires....Deutsche Bank, hold bearish long-term view. Deutsche tips EUR/USD at 1.35 in 12-months though adds risk aversion may support USD near term; HSBC tips EUR/USD to fall to 1.18, AUD/USD to 0.72

Spotforex NY 01:04 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
dc fxq 00:48

That was mention in the last part of my response about the impact of elections and ccy markets.....happy trading mate!

ICT ML 01:00 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Gbp-Jpy pushing against down trend line of this swing.....other techs say it probably breaks out to up side this time.......which is against my possie now....we'll see.

Brisbane L 00:58 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
According to JP Morgan.

If Madrid bombings were work of radical Muslim group, negative impact on consumer, business confidence and global economy could be broader and more sustained than if it were work of ETA (or splinter group), March confidence measures now being collected across Europe vulnerable to downside; if bombings international in motivation, would raise cost of doing business globally; countries in Iraq coalition (eg. Japan) will be most vulnerable and debate may emerge over border security in Europe.

dc fxq 00:48 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY 00:42 GMT

Russia had elections today as well with Putin winning another 4 yr term as expected.

Oh really ... why not on Political???????

Spotforex NY 00:42 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
election results usually can have a direct impact on ccy pairs...The Spanish elections saw a change in power and such uncertainty promotes an increase in volatility.

This was not an earth shattering event in term of ccy moves...but Spain's stance on their troops in Iraq will send a bit of uncertainty for the US foreign policy as the US lost its second best European ally on the Iraq issue (UK being the first).

I guess - The use of the UN will become more vocal as a result of the Spanish elections.....

Russia had elections today as well with Putin winning another 4 yr term as expected.

nyc jk 00:40 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
lol spot

Gen dk 00:40 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

melbourne farmacia 00:39 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
This coming week should reveal the US dollar's direction going into months end. Based on a number of factors, including cycle analysis and my directional indicators suggests if Euro's going to print the 1.1960 area, it needs to happen this week. More precisely on 18 th march. Going into Monday's trade, if Euro stays under 1.2330 the odds point towards this figure. Alternatively USD/CHF has the potential to take out 1.3183 under the same time frame as euro.
On a side note - As Athens mentioned on the political forum last week. Swiss undertook some suspect activity mid week, to the point where chf had broken my key indicator suggesting sell on rallies etc ... at this time euro did not support this view. This might explain my post from last week
03:36 GMT March 12, 2004
As long as Usd/Chf trades under 1.2750, buying pressure will intensify on euro.

Ps - aussie bounced/retraced 100 + pips as expected from 0.7250 line.

Have a good week.

LA BV 00:34 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Spot. Can you explain how the Spanish election impact FX.

Spot Police NY 00:30 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 22:37

Agree that Spain election results has a direct impact on FX.

License and registration please........


Pecs Andras 00:19 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Good morning/evening everybody
I am seeing a 30 gap on the Aussie from 00:00 GMT
Is that correct? And the possible reason?

London, Canada Sejake 00:08 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
Good evening all !!!

Anyone else using FOREX.com's platform having chart problems tonight? Mine arn't loading in for some reason.
Thanks,

Sejake

usa tom 00:05 GMT March 15, 2004 Reply   
nevermind ab, I found the piece about RBNZ proprosing to intervene, don't think that applies now after the huge drop, still think a retrace to 38.2 fib of the .634 low is a possibility this week.

 




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