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Forex Forum Archive for 03/18/2004

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sydney fg 23:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ok gep. good luck with it.

usd/chf looks a sell at 1.2610 with a tight stop..averages turning downward on 4hr ...target 1.2400 area
maybe switcheroo at 1.2620 looking for 1.2660-1.2700

Eilat Dolphin 23:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Goebbels/ Isn't there a word missing lihke "having "spread...

Dallas GEP 23:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FG, technically it is NOT a good idea to add lots to a losing position but if you adjust lot sizes (smaller) and base entries at common support areas (if going long), it CAN work out well. If not done carefully howver, it will result in losses and I would not do it with more than two entries including the original/

Berlin J.Goebbels 23:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
What I will do if I have: 1)A spaniard rebel; 2)A poland rebel candidate; 3)One less hotel in Baghdad; 4)McCain around; 5)An aniversary of war, tomorrow; 6)Bad econ news; 7)A lame stock market; 8)...
Well, I never, never would remember of spread a rumor :)

Dallas GEP 23:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Cain, I have been thinking about that for 4 hours now (Euro), I have tried to talk myself into a short but it isn't moving fast enough for me. I would be a seller @ 1,2440 though unless something drastic happens but I wouldn't BUY here @ 1.2391 either. With the events of today I think is MORE risky to short the dollar than longing it with the exception of possibly usd/jpy which I have a 106.85 short on now.

hk revdax 23:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Q//Could you give a probable target of $/CHF over the foreseeable future? Looks like US$ is on the decline again.

sydney fg 23:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
dallas GEP,
out of interest, do u often use that technique? averaging down seems to go against stop loss principals. have done it in the past but usually scares the carp out of me.

Melbourne Qindex 23:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 23:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
OK, got a BUY order now on USd/CAD @ 1.3255 (a layered long meaning less than normal possie size but will add more if it shorts down more at around 1.3200).

Quito Valdez 23:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
humm...market stalemated. Winners are having wine and escargot with their women and couldn't care less about trading right now, loosers are out for a while to see where things go. World waiting to see who's going to be captured/killed in Mountain Storm although one news article I read (taken down) said it was Chechens and other foreigners, not Arabs who's in Pakistan under fire right now. Japan easing up. Iraq fireworks picking up for anniversary of war "top off" I suspect. England feels an attack is imminent for them, hundreds of attempts foiled since 9-11...but eventually one will get thru they feel. So many variables no wonder the market is "waiting". CHF is strong, likely a parking lot safehouse til the action starts. Gold up, anticipating worldwide fireworks. 1.24 about to test again...

Let's just cop out and buy gold! :=>

sydney fg 23:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thoughts on eur..
price remains above EMA's..breaking out of pennant now as japan comes in. a good morning to sit back and watch i feel. I suspect heavy going either way with no news.

MTL Cain 23:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, may I please know ur view on eur/usd?

Got a big cut on last night dramatic fall. need to gain some to heal it. :)

TIA

london cam 23:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Mvs - g/l if you go for it. certainly looks promising for some upticks. I haven't got the balls for it tonight, gonna hit the sack!

Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks FG!!!

Dallas GEP 23:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
AG, I think I would long it from 1.3250 if seen

CAIRO AG 23:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP: what do u think of the CADDY in de next session? TIA

CAIRO AG 23:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sfx comments reminded me to do the same.............................................................................

farmacia//// GREAT CALL MY FRIEND... mind you, just to be honest with you: i was looking to the Cable charts in de morning and saw the trinagle on the weekly, ending above 1.8400 ( while cable was already progressing with 130 pips and was at 1.8290 ) and was LAUGHING.... I COULDNT BELEIVE THAT THIS MIGHT HAPPEN....

However, HATS OFF farmacia.... U DESERVE IT, especially in such a louzy market.

sydney fg 23:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
good morning and welcome to asia GEP!

Dallas GEP 23:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Well GBP/JPY technically looks like a short based on Bollinger Bands, STOCHS, and MACD (not quite turned south yet). Eur/Yen looks similiar and AUD/JPY is a little less bearish. (all on 30 minute charts). USD/JPY looks to be short from 106.99 area if not already. All this could turn on a dime however as you know. BTW do NOT play with gbp/jpy unless you have a tolerance for 60-80 pip stop losses at a minimum.

Singapore Sfx 23:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia - Nice calls, mate. Cheers.

Ldn Mvs 23:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
London cam - yes totally agree - well seems like the way to go over the next few hrs is with the yen crosses - gbp/jpy; aud/jpy; eur/jpy all look like they have room for higher lvls s/t...g/l

Bandung Dewan 23:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I was sell for short term at 8355

london cam 23:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Mvs - yep, I share your sentiment too mate as Im sure many on the forum do. However, what really raised my eyebrows was that if the article writer's hypothesis is valid, the MOF's announcement would not send a strong message to the FED if it were made post 31st March ie it would just be seen as the MOF taking a break once Japanese financial institutions and exporters were in the clear.

Dallas GEP 23:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Well friends I am trying to determine whether the parked cars in my driveway are moving faster than the price action on these ccy's. It's close, very very close.

Quito Valdez 22:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Toronto// Sorry 4 the delay...I'm having difficulty in finding the Chechan article again...can't remember where it came up...will keep looking but rest assured it existed. Will post in a bit. Help me by trying fox news.

Ldn Mvs 22:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Like the article 'london cam' - can't help but thinking this is a bear trap indeed and the story about the Canadians in the Tokyo subway restaurant spells it out nicely..there is always an undertone to what the Japanese say which us Westeners don't always understand - my main concern lies with 31st March, date when the Japanese fiscal year ends - it's not just about helping out the exporters in Japan, but also about helping the large financial institutions who have large exposures on foreign (mainly US) equity & bonds - they effectively have to value these assets at book value on 31st March (which is a relatively new rule..in the past they booked them at purchase price!), using the effective exchange rate at that time - is it therefore not in their interest to have a higher usd/jpy then? What happens after the end of March is a completely different story, but I still believe that this is a bear trap and that many may get hurt.......beware...BoJ may just be having a good laugh with the move we have seen over the past four days.......anybody share my opinion?

London, Canada Sejake 22:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Anyone watching what looks like wave 4 consolidations/triangles (5 minute charts) in eur and swissy?
Looks like one more move up/down in this time frame.
Just a thought!

Sejake

GVI john 22:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2380…$/yen 106.85
DJIA 10,296, -5 pts…NASDAQ 1,962, -14 pts
10-yr 3.75%, +6 bp’s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:

For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for full text..

UK GF 22:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The Japanese government is considering cutting down the scale of the dollar/yen buying interventions that it has been conducting since last year, the major daily newspaper Mainichi Shimbun reported on its Web site Thursday
With the Japanese economy steadily recovering and successive critical remarks coming from officials of other major countries, such as the U.S., the government has judged that the days of using massive interventions as a means to support the economy are coming to an end, international financial sources told the daily, the report said.
similar report was carried by Nikkei Financial Daily a few days ago.

london cam 22:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
YEN & MOF
interesting read for$Yen players.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/lee031904.html

Ldn Mvs 22:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Beware of bear traps though - they have been known to exist many a times in this mkt!

UK GF 22:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY: Mainichi Says MOF Also Willing To End Intervention
Ifr

Umm seems they have thrown the towel in.

UK GF 22:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dollar Sinks Versus Yen as Japan Signals Currency-Policy Shift
The yen gained against 15 of 16 major currencies today.

No Support

The dollar is falling against the yen because ``the BOJ's not supporting it any more,'' said Daniel Katzive, a currency strategist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``It seems like they're going to allow it to relapse back to 105 but there's no guarantee.'' UBS's three-month forecast is 105 yen.

Ldn Mvs 21:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Suspicious looking bids in usd/jpy or just my imagination?.......106.70 seems to have hallmarks of BoJ - anybody seeing anything official?

Dallas GEP 21:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Shorted usd/jpy from 106.85, target 106.05, smaller than normal position size

Gen dk 21:44 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Toronto YV 21:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez , can You give a link to the news mentioned at 19:54 GMT March 18, 2004 , about chechens . TIA.

ICT ML 21:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
could be time to sell gbp-jpy again from 195.50 if it starts down in next 30-45 minutes....tgt 194.50 first, then if breaks looking for bumps down to 191.25 tomorrow close maybe...and a 191.25-197 range for a few weeks is what I see right now......but that is dependant on it getting down there first..

enjoy....stopped out on gbp-usd channel top play, so look for test of 1.8600 again Friday and selloff back towards 1.7900 area next week is my thinking.

Global-View 21:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Long story but rest assured we are on top of it.

Nassau QF 21:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
You beat me to it?

Nassau QF 21:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Jay or John. Why don't you use that script that converts broker names to censored and have that apply to censored.com also?

dc fxq 21:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I had responded to the first post made and I would setltle for the simple bullet headlines such as were on MMS prior to the first of this year or the IFR 15 minute delayed that is available. Headlines alone are really enough in most cases I feel and MNI has excellent ones that are very quick data updates, etc. The problem as GVI points out is cost.

Quito Valdez 21:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I'm not even going to touch political forum material. Learned my lesson.

Nassau QF 21:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
THE Pakistan government plans an airstrike on suspected al-Qaeda fighters which may include the group's No2 Ayman al-Zawahri.

Government sources quoted on CNN say the strikes, which may include helicopter gunships and planes, will happen at first light on Friday.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2004130413,00.html

Quito Valdez 20:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Guys, Jay did propose this before when it came up...please fellas, respond this time to Jay, I wanna super good REAL TIME news ticker. Jay's right, it has to be real time to give us the edge. So email Jay right now with your support. These Reuter's and Fox tickers etc. don't really give us real time as in REAL TIME.

Nassau QF 20:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
We get the news here already.
Reuters didn't have the France story until after it appeared here.

The "high value target" story also appeared here very quickly.

Global-View 20:44 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Re a news feed: We asked this before and will do so again with the hope of getting a good response.

The only news worth having is live news that allows you to see what is occurring in real time. In this regard, good and timely news does not come for free and while we evalauate various alternatives, it would be helpful if you could email us feedback on what you would like iin a news feed and at what price point you would be willing to pay for something worthwhile.

LHR B747 20:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
From my point of view, the main issue is the hate and the targeting of US and it's partners.

Did the capture of Saddam improved US position is Iraq?
Who guided OBL into terrorism/"holy war -Jihad"?

EUR/USD positions: EUR went from 1.1800 to 0.8100, means that the trading circle will close @ around 1.3700-1.4500

Look at XAU (gold) and you will know what will happen on EUR/USD, trading is the same from beginning of times only the products that trade are changing.

IMO
GL GT

Barcelona Tony 20:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
dallas .. that is philosophical forex! LMAO

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I think it is pretty apparent that for now the market is semi-paralysed by the current events RE: the Pakistani thing. USD bears don't want ot be crushed if news is usd positve and USD bulls want to make sure that the bear run is over not taking into account the most current news events. (in other words would dollar bear positions have turned the other way on their own due to retracements???)

Quito Valdez 20:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Until that day comes when GVI installs a news ticker, Reuters and Fox offer pretty good ones...Fox has larger footprint on desktop (2cm) than Reuters (1cm) but has more stuff. Both are free at their respective websites. I use both at the same time. sky.com also has a news desktop alert thingey...got that too...

nyc sa 20:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
if we can have a live forex news ticker on top of that site ,that would be wonderful , wish GV gives it a thought .

LHR B747 20:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:06 GMT: with 200:1 leverage we can move the project :)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP not to mention the amount it takes to keep it floating in the air LOL later.

Dallas GEP 20:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
It would be about 2.5 BILLION dollars for GV-SATNET and launch

Quito Valdez 20:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP// there ya go. I'll invest the first buck. Looks like MoF, the mf, has paved the way for great EUR/USD action. If something weird does happen to the USA then it would increase the USD downslide. U.S. exporters, Bush, Snow, Greenweenie should be doing the Irish jig on this one.

Dallas GEP 19:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Maybe we should all throw some money in, buy a satellite, Have the Russian Space Agency launch it and we can observe first hand news events as they are happening. We could call it GV-SATNET, LOL

Quito Valdez 19:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I might add: Chechans (fact - cnn, reuters) sold 11 suitcase nukes to "an Arab representative" a couple years ago. Chechans got them from ex KGB who stole them from former soviet inventory. If it's a Chechan leader who's the target maybe interrogation will surface where the suicase nukes went..a dollar positive event if I ever heard one. So don't discount if Chechan leader is jailed.

Ldn 19:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The Japanese government is considering cutting down the scale of the dollar/yen buying interventions that it has been conducting since last year, the major daily newspaper Mainichi Shimbun reported on its Web site Thursday.
With the Japanese economy steadily recovering and successive critical remarks coming from officials of other major countries, such as the U.S., the government has judged that the days of using massive interventions as a means to support the economy are coming to an end, international financial sources told the daily, the report said.
The Japanese media usually use the phrase "international financial sources" when they are referring to senior government officials who want to remain anonymous.
A similar report was carried by Nikkei Financial Daily a few days ago.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Have a good rest Raden.

Quito Valdez 19:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sky News: Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir told Fox News that he had spoken over the phone with the commander of the operation in the area, and was told they were battling Chechen resistance, not Arabs.

Mir said he had been in the area in recent days and had seen "a lot of dead bodies."

"I have talked to the commander," he said. "He said most of the people fighting are not Arabs, they are Chechens," adding that the Pakistani forces may have a Chechen leader cornered, not Al Qaeda chief Usama bin Laden or Zawahri.

Dallas GEP 19:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
SA, usd/jpy COULD be different because if we assume it is being held up with MOF bids then if USD positive news comes out it will give the MOF the opportunity to REPLACE some of their bids with bids from the market in general and in this case they could use OUR bids to hold USD/JPY up at this level WITHOUT using their OWN money.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 19:35 GMT March 18, 2004
yes. 1.8837 as the top.
I am sorry.. not objective again.. too sleepy..tomorrow please remind me to answer detail.
in my desk show 4.00 in tyhe morning.
need sleep 1,5 hours.
CU.. thanks for today.

nyc sa 19:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas ,in the event of confirmation of OBL capture if dollar should rebound against all currencies ,why would yen be different ? I have a feeling $/yen has good support where it stands now in this area , it may sit here or move a little but that's it for now I guess .

Dallas GEP 19:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
SA, that's a MOF question but I beleive for now it will be bid up to 106.60/70 area but I am not going to take possie on it.

nyc sa 19:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Hey Dallas , what's ur view on $/yen ? will it rebound ?

nyc sa 19:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hi Raden , GBP/USD have a feeling it might see 1.88 next week . Any views about $/yen ? will it sit around here till end of month when Tankan report is released ? or may rebound a little say to around 1.09?

Dallas GEP 19:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry make that @ 1,2280

Dallas GEP 19:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Watch USD/JPY very carefully!!!

Quito Valdez 19:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sky news just in:
AL QAEDA TARGET TRAPPED
Osama bin Laden's second in command has been surrounded in Pakistan, officials have said.

Troops say they have cornered Ayman al-Zawahri in an operation near the Afghan border.

http://www.sky.com/skynews?CMP=ILC-6UL712550356

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
maybe I am alone buy gbp/usd for short term.(just a joke) :-)
have bought at 1.8325 and 1.8360 to get 1.8409 .

Ldn Mvs 19:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Pakistan army spokesman calls Zawahiri report as "speculative" & that fighting continues in border area....looks like back to basics - US$ still looks like a sell on rally strategy is the best way forward for the moment..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
raden_masandi: in my TA is ideal if move up fast in that condition formation chart

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd will move up fast in 5 minutes from now as the acceleration.

pd cumino 19:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Surrealistic?

Eilat Dolphin 19:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ We have both. Sourrended is the correction. There was AP, Reuters and SkyN on those shots.

Eilat Dolphin 19:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Zarkaoui only "surrounded". (Not by mountains I hope.)

Dallas GEP 19:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin.....surrounded or surrendered????

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
only wait the acceleration.

Eilat Dolphin 19:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I have a report that al Zawahiri was captured or surrendered...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd up.

Gen dk 19:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 18:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ZA, thanks for your comments I continue to learn everyday. I hope you have a good day. GT

Pgh wjs 18:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP

Saw 7490 once on my charts last 30 minutes.

My stop for Euro short at 2410 is 2470 or should I make it something other than even #?

Quito Valdez 18:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - A senior Pakistani government official said ... al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahri may have been surrounded near the Afghanistan border.
"A pitched battle is going on there. The way these people are resisting, we think there is someone important over there. We think al-Zawahri may be holed up there," the official told Reuters.

Riga Nick 18:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP
LOL. Ok. Don't be bothering you. Thanks. GL GT

Dallas GEP 18:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Tarheel, thanks saw that .7480 on 2 diffrent platforms may have been false feed????

Dallas GEP 18:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Nick, I don't know that I can really define my style of trading to tell you the truth!!!

Calabash TarHeel 18:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 18:41 GMT March 18, 2004
Did anyone see a VERY brief .7490 on Aussie in the last 30 minutes or so. I saw it TWICE.

Gep, I am showing 7491 for low in the last 30 minutes, thankufully. Had shorted e/l 7540, filled while I was gone, closed +45 pips.

GL, GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd chart home work for 1.8409 seen will be finished, but seen price will repeat to meat 1.8310 before go 1.8409 again ,but I hope you not selling from now ..better wait at low for buy (buy on dip).
daily candle for tomorrow must break high than high today in my TA.

or 18:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas I show two spikes down, first down to 98 bid and second 90 bid.

Chicago Irish 18:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep:Lowest I saw was 90

Riga Nick 18:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Sorry to ask you again, but possibly you just missed my previous post. May I ask you, how long did it take you to develope you style of trading? Thanks

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
There is no confirmation yet but the president of Pakistan would not have mentioned anything unless this was not a key figure they have surrounded.
Farmacia when you said 3-18-04 was a key day you were not kidding mate lol. Heck of a call, forget the fortunetellers I will definitely pay you money to tell me my fortune buddy. Name your price. ;-)

Stockholm za 18:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
JFB… You do 5 min fib……….. lol
It’s no surprise/(That`s the portrait)…..
OMIL.. Like our discussion yesterday, the dates are different on my charts however the concept is the same …lol
Happy trades to you all........

Quito Valdez 18:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - 12:40 PM .. Nine civilians killed in fresh violence in Iraq: guerrillas mounted attacks 2 days before the 1st anniversary of the start of the U.S.-led war to oust Saddam Hussein.

comment: On the anniversary date in 2 days...what then?

stock indeces all down.

EUR/USD chart rising cautiously since target thought to be NOT OBL nor sidekick al Z. 32 yrs of economics now make sence.

Dallas GEP 18:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry I meant .7480!!!!

Riga Nick 18:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I suppose EUR could become bearish under the reaction low or 1.2355 but stops.... Stops above 1.2436 will be to expensive.

Dallas GEP 18:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Did anyone see a VERY brief .7490 on Aussie in the last 30 minutes or so. I saw it TWICE.

Dallas GEP 18:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
WJS, any short on the Euro now and I beleive your stop needs to be above today's high 1.2430. 1,2380 holds and that will make shorts work otherwise it WILL take longer

Nassau QF 18:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Possibly a Chechen leader?

Pgh wjs 18:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP,

I happen to be a low value target right now... LOL but as I become a good trader with all of this forum's help and my own diligence someday plan to be high value target!

Is it worth even trying to short the euro or pound right now? I have a pending short euro at 2410

Quito Valdez 18:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
IF high value target is captured..if OBL, USD strengthens. If Mr. Z, likewise. Maybe Euro rises also. I suspect this sell off sponsored by this "maybe" news....the warning "last cheap USD" below...was right?

Spotforex NY 18:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
apparently so GEP....

Nassau QF 18:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
On Fox news, they are saying it's not Bin Laden or al Zawahiri

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uk growen 17:08 GMT March 18, 2004
you have connected with amazing bussines.
high risk ..high profit can be changed by high profit with high control risk.

Dallas GEP 18:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Until we know MORE about this pakistani deal, we may hover between 1.2360 and 1.2380

Quito Valdez 18:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Growen// I don't want to waste space here...go to:
http://www.global-view.com/beta/forums/forum.html?f=4

as a direct link to the help forum..copy/paste that into address bar up top of your browser. You may need a new browser..Micro$oft MIE 6.x works best 4 me. Free too.

Dallas GEP 18:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
DON, are you a high value target????

Pamplona AJP 18:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
growen, what do you see on the Right Hand side of your screen ?

Montréal Taro 18:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uk growen

This page right is grey with a blue frame all around. If you don't see some blue at your right, you're not seeing the hole website. Scroll to the right to see it.

Spotforex NY 18:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GVI forces outside my office.......

Dallas GEP 18:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Well IMO, there wouldn't have said a high value target unless they believed that to be true at the time. Remember SELL on the Rumour which we have seen, BUY on the fact is NOT known yet. 1,2380 if it holds is BEARISH tho for EURO

Spotforex NY 18:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
from GVI

AP reports Zawahiri

uk growen 18:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   


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Nassau QF 18:18 GMT March 18, 2004
In a report from Islamabad, CNN said Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf told them Pakistani forces had surrounded a "high-value target" that was being protected by al Qaeda fighters. CNN said the identity of the target was not known.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3548-2004Mar18.html

Va Raven 18:17 GMT March 18, 2004
Sounds like forex trading....high value target, where is the stop then?

Quito Valdez 18:17 GMT March 18, 2004
growen:
scroll up to the top of this page where you see User Name etc. on the right. Now scroll your screen all the way to the right if you have a narrow screened laptop. Now scroll down a bit to see:
Free Forums
Forex
FX+Ticker
Financial
Help
Political

this is what i can see at the top of my screen , i cant see a blue bar

sydney fg 18:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
guys, would just like to express my appreciation for this forum. I have just stumbled across it -- it's like having a desk and reuters dealer infront of me. I'm finding it very useful.
so thanks, my apolgies for being a pain in the rear, and good luck to you all.
cheers.
fg

Nottingham 18:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
road...overextensions can correct themselves in one of two ways...through price action or by way of time erosion...the shorter the time period you use, the greater the frequency of corrections being time based and you will need to incorporate stops...gl gt

Nassau QF 18:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
In a report from Islamabad, CNN said Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf told them Pakistani forces had surrounded a "high-value target" that was being protected by al Qaeda fighters. CNN said the identity of the target was not known.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3548-2004Mar18.html

Va Raven 18:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sounds like forex trading....high value target, where is the stop then?

Quito Valdez 18:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
growen:
scroll up to the top of this page where you see User Name etc. on the right. Now scroll your screen all the way to the right if you have a narrow screened laptop. Now scroll down a bit to see:
Free Forums
Forex
FX+Ticker
Financial
Help
Political

Those are free forums available to everyone.

Eilat Dolphin 18:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Mushie: "We are reasonably sure there is high value target."

GVI john 18:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Growen- you may have to scroll down on the dark blue sidebar on the right to find the free forums link..

Nassau QF 18:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
On the right hand side of the forum.

Free Forums
Forex
FX+Ticker
Financial
Help
Political

sydney fg 18:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
on the right of your screen it says "free forums"

Dallas GEP 18:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ABSOLUTELY, don't take reports as fact BUT rumours DID shorted EUR/USd down to 1.2359

Eur/usd NOT confirmed but looks like a sell IS developing Could short with stop above today's high

Rye, NY et 18:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uk growen 17:58 GMT March 18, 2004
To find the Help Forum, you need to go to www.global-view.com. The HF is on the blue frame on the right. GL

uk growen 18:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
how do i get to other forums with in this site please ,

Eilat Dolphin 18:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ "Possibly suggesting " Ok, hopefully too.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 17:57 GMT March 18, 2004
These are the indicators you use for intraday positions. Time frames may be 15min 30min or 1hr. Example maybe the stoch’s or macd it depends on what indicators you use for guidance.

sydney fg 18:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
helsinki..
bloomberg reports heavy fighting on pakistan/afghan border

Dallas GEP 18:00 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
CNN annouced Pakistani forces have surrounded AL-AQUEDA forces which a heavily defending a high value target though to be OBL

Chambery FR JFB 17:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
za, just for the fun of it :on the 5' chart, the fib levels for today move from 1.2242 to 1.2430 just coincide with respectively EMA55/89/144... very impressive picture, although it won't last... Last spike just touched both 38.2% AND EMA55(1.2358), hope next move down will go get 1.2335 (am short from 1.2396... Happy trades:-)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the information Athens you know I appreciated very much. I am constantly learning from you and others here in the forum. GT

Athens 17:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Tony, I am sorry, I don't use msn and I don't have it installed.

uk growen 17:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
can any one tell me how i get to the help forum , i cant see any blue menu here

beijing road 17:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:27 GMT March 18, 2004
Good suggestion JF either way the intraday indicators are exhausted and will probably pull back soon.

Sir: what do you mean by "intrady indicators" plz?

Helsinki iw 17:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Pakistani media reporting Al-Queada "target" surrounded.
Anybody hear anything further about this?

Barcelona Tony 17:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens friend do you have msn?

sar jf 17:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
usdcad daily chart is one to look at - for future move

Athens 17:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, the current key is the EUR-CHF divergence (EUR/CHF now trading the 1.55's after quite some time). At this point it is unclear which of the two contis will finally pull the other. Which of the two does will define the next USD direction.

Port Louis YH 17:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
What about buy usd/chf @1.2554 t/p 1.2650 IMHO - anyone see this turn on charts?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd still not ideal if not touch key band 1.2450-57 or band 1.2480-86 (max band)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ZA, you are right and since you are the ma specialist you might appreciate the 20dma crossed down the 55dma back in 3-8-04 and the last time this happened was back in roughly around 9-26-2003 when eur/usd was 1.1388. I still don’t see this turning bullish until around 1.2600’s come around IMHO.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
still not ideal if gbp/usd still not yet touch 1.8409.. only 1.8404
be carefull..

melbourne O 17:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez, dollar dipping to a s/t cycle top today after a confirmed m/t turn.

Athens 17:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Re the big picture and the consequences of the latest market developments, I would like to refer to a comment I posted here earlier this week, not to claim any credits but to keep in mind for what probably comes next:

Athens 17:57 GMT March 15, 2004

To save space I won't reprint it now, it is in the archives.

Quito Valdez 17:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
UK growen: see the blue menu at right, click under the 3rd group of links which is "free forums", click the "help forum" link.

Nottingham 17:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 17:31 GMT

No chance today road, needs to see another couple of figures for that...normally I'd say no chance tomorrow either, but it's a Friday so maybe...euro has been in a tight 2 figure range since early March (when we had last o/s) and a break out might see some over enthusiasm late US session tom...gl gt

prauge viktor 17:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep my friend what do u think now with the euro to long it or to short it thanks

Dallas GEP 17:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, my friend, EXCELLENT calls. What is your view currently my friend????

Stockholm za 17:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw ... on EUR/USD.........
We have only been moveing side ways across the bear channel since mar 03 playing out the D-top base...
Development profile as seen........
Todays high (so far ) still does not put us out side that channel. However it should be noted some new upward channel developments on the smaller time frames......
Happy (safe) trades......

beijing road 17:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham : today EUR has any o/b level plz? Thanks.

Nottingham 17:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uk growen 17:19 GMT

Go to a traditional London broker and open a discretionary account/advisory account...they may only let you trade futures to begin with but the basics will apply to forex...you will have your own account manager who will be able to explain things to you on an on going basis...you may pay slightly higher commissions for this service but it's probably better to go this way (for a complete novice)...gl gt

uk growen 17:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
no i dont just started reading up on it , but cant get my hands on much helpful info every thing is stock related but dont really want to go down that route, how do i get to the help forum

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Good suggestion JF either way the intraday indicators are exhausted and will probably pull back soon.

sydney fg 17:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gowen, sounds like u have alot of work to do. have u done any trading at all before? have u any backgorund in the financial markets?

Nassau QF 17:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
LONDON/PARIS (Reuters) - A fake bomb near Paris held up rail traffic to northern France and London on Thursday, unsettling Europe's already jittery financial markets exactly a week after the devastating train bombings in Madrid.
The "bomb" turned out to be an empty oxygen canister.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4598869§ion=news

sar jf 17:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
got a feeling tomorrow will be wider swings - with these yen crosses dominating would not rule out a run back to new low tomorrow for euro - despite the bid tone today - esp aud buying up here makes no sense to me - imo gl/gt

Washington MMM 17:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP .....any views on USD?CAD @ these levels ?
thanks

Quito Valdez 17:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uk growen, let's talk about it in help forum, I'm a newbie too & learned a lot lately..see ya there..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I am reading that some stops might be building above the 1.2420-40 area but I never really trust what I read. Key point now remains the break of 1.2460 area if this goes than that will open the door to 1.2490 and 1.2595-2600 which are the fib retracement from 1.2060 pullback. I believe that if 1.2595-2600 is taken then the bulls run the whole show again and will be drilling holes in the 1.29 wall IMHO.

Det tm 17:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Seems like CAD is the reluctant camp follower, again. In futures it blew past the 20 MA & is being blocked by the 10 MA and 40 MA. Mixed bag this A.M., of course Canadian CPI is placing odds for another BoC cut although securities transactions for Jan. (Reuters) look Ca. bullish.

Dallas GEP 17:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Well Jay 1.18 is closer than 1.35 is to 1.24 so no, I wouldn't say it is out of view.

uk growen 17:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thank you for your help , im so basic that i have the demo account already with the numbers going up and down and i dont understand what they mean really i have lost half by balance in less than 2 days , dont understand what it is i need to do really

beijing road 17:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham : Thanks sir.

Quito Valdez 17:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
melborne, can you give us an indication of your prediction, mate? We're all ears.

Dallas GEP 17:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Growen, get a demo account FIRST. $100.00 a day would be about a 10 pip gain per day on 1 lot (EURO). Days like today tho are very difficult make no mistake about it.

Quito Valdez 17:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uk growen: www.cuencanet.com/financialex.html and the help forum here in GVI are informational/resources for everyone including new folks.

sydney fg 17:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gowen,
google 'trading forex' and u will be inundated with basic info.
if u have specific questions, maybe try the help forum.

SG Jay 17:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
should 1.18xx be out of the view now for eur/dlr ?

melbourne O 17:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
last chance to buy CHEAP dollar

sydney fg 17:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
yeh, ahd the ticket ready. slapped it as soon as i saw it. as i said -lucky!

SanFrancisco tg 17:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
HK [email protected] 17:04 - Ask the tens of thousands of dead Kurds slaughtered by Hussein with chemical weapons think about the wmd "lie". By the way, what does this have to do with foreign exchange ?

Dallas GEP 17:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Really the only way to have gotten that 1,2428 SHORT was to have had a SELL order in FIRST.

sydney fg 17:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
yes GEP, would take a brave soul to get involved here i feel.
was lucky enough to be long from 1.2295, sell at 1.2325 and buy back at 03. Best i quit for the day!

uk growen 17:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
can any one here give me some advice , i have no expiriance in trading of any kind but i can see the benefits of trading currancy, I have been getting lost reading all your posts as i dont really understand alot of them, currently i cant work away from home due to my health and so i am forced to look for another source of income, is it possible to make £40 a day ($83) by trading forex , can you tell me where i can find information and learning material for free (please dont laugh lol)

Dallas GEP 17:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
KL, these are VERY difficult levels. My tendancy is to find a good level to SHORT.

Ldn Viewer 17:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Run stops now , then lower ... Lets see ..

HK [email protected] 17:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
WARSAW (AFX) - President Aleksander Kwasniewski said his country was "taken for a ride" about the alleged existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

"That they deceived us about the weapons of mass destruction, that's true. We were taken for a ride," Kawsniewski said.

He argued however that it made no sense to pull US-led coalition troops out of Iraq.

Poland heads up a 9,000-strong multinational force patrolling a swathe of Iraq south of Baghdad.

Nassau QF 17:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
March Philly Fed Index drops to 24.2 (exp 30, prev 31.4)

sydney fg 17:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
yeh

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Next stop for eur/usd is 1.2460 but right now we may see some pullback for profit taking and no sell signal as of yet IMHO.

KL KL 17:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, u shorting GBPUSD or EURUSD or AUD yet.....care to tell what level would be good to short...looks like top is losing power. US figures not tha bad ...then again nothing makes sense now!!

Dallas GEP 17:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
BAD philly report I guess

GENEVA FHR 17:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Philly Fed 24.2

sydney fg 17:00 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
what tha?

sydney fg 16:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
don't think so at the mom.

SG Jay 16:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
do you think we will see eur/dlr above 1.2450 ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
have a nice...

Dallas GEP 16:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Ab, don't know about a 7th sense RE: usd/jpy!!! LOL

sydney fg 16:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
quick say that again please!

sydney fg 16:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
yes think so.
eur 1.2270 - 12310 for now

Eilat Dolphin 16:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Day-is-Done imo.

nyc jk 16:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
NY newbie 16:36 GMT March 18, 2004

...which is different from stock you can wait till the price coming back or at least you wont lose everything you put in.

Mate do you think those now bankrupt dot com stocks that you bought in 2000 are coming back?

Nottingham 16:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
road>>>I replied to your question earlier on this forum

Quito Valdez 16:44 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
no dolphin, my body count was only on the ground for a couple years. :-/

hong kong nt 16:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- sell aud at .750, sell small yen at 106.5 ...

Eilat Dolphin 16:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez/ Did ya shoot down a couple of VC commies jets ?

beijing road 16:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham: Are you around? I have question for you on help forex. Thanks.

Eilat Dolphin 16:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Newbie/ 100/1 margin may last you ten minutes, or even less... Or you double your money. How long can it last statistically ? Two weeks should be a great achievement.

Quito Valdez 16:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney: hit the silk=bail out..parachutes in WWII were made of silk. Tia, go to help forum.

sydney fg 16:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry dolphin ...none the wiser...

sydney fg 16:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
newbie...?
same rules apply. doesn't matter what u buy or sell. adv of fx is liquidity, spreads, market hours

Eilat Dolphin 16:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Silk=parachute.

Stockholm za 16:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw...... EUR/USD.......
Cycle at 1.5 >> 12431 given ~ clip
ema 34&89 - spike
ema 55 on clip......
Have to love FX.........
Happy trades......

sydney fg 16:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hit the silk? i no capiche

NY newbie 16:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hi guys,

Wanna ask a question. I found out fx seems like gambling cuz when you do a cut loss. you will lost everything., which is different from stock you can wait till the price coming back or at least you wont lose everything you put in.

Besides the leverage 1:100 what else is so good about fx?

TIA.

Eilat Dolphin 16:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
fq/But the last minute leg had some kick! there should be stean left. I did hit the silk.

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP do u have the 7th sense on yen?

Tallinn viies 16:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
first target at 1,24 figure is reached. 1,2450 today would gift from fx god :)
cu tom

sydney fg 16:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
doub;e top forming here on the eur

HK [email protected] 16:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Once gold will break above 417... not too much Res. to 430.5 simple chart gazing.

Det tm 16:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
SA Learning; Go to Help Forum on this site, TFC forum, or Marketforum (Google search), they will talk your ear off about Gann. This is a busy morning.

London AL; Thanks

Athens 16:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Viktor, a pleasure.
Have a good trading day, everyone. I am out for the day.

Eilat Dolphin 16:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
reuters/ It was an oxygen cannister on the London Dover track. Line closed another 100 minutes. + phone threat from some group with a desertic name.

prauge viktor 16:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athensthank u sir it was the best call for today.

SA Learning 16:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
lol, i suppose not. Thanks anyway...

Quito Valdez 16:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, incredible. Frankly I didn't believe it...I'd best tuck my beliefs in the trash.

Athens 16:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
All three Yen contras I suggested in the morning must have given a smaller or bigger profit to anyone who followed that tip and was nimble and not greedy (evem $/JPY gave a profit). No doubt, the best choice of the three proved EUR/JPY. As I posted earlier, I am not holding any contras now.

Lagos Styrax 09:56, no problem, I was not offended at all. I simply had no time to write about things which I have repeatedly posted here in the past anyway and one can find in the archives if interested in more detailed explanations about what I define as contra trading.

Dallas GEP 16:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Guys, regardless of what MOF says, SOMETHING is supporting USD/JPY at this 106.45/50 area

London AL 16:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
London AL 16:13 hi on March 9th for Euro June futures was 1.2419

Gen dk 16:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sydney fg 16:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
eur has ticked up 3 times to 1.2400...good selling here.
will we get thru it.? hmm

London AL 16:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Det tm 16:07 GMT Futures: the tail that wags the dog just once in a while yes but so far the arb guys keeping it sufficiently supplied with liquidity but it feels like an elastic band. Mar 9th hi 1.2414 (add approx 29 pips for spot equiv)

Dallas GEP 16:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Next level if 1.2400 level breaks is 1.2415/20. Should be some pullback from 1,2400 Whether THAT is sustained is the question. I think is is MORE likely of a push to 1.2415

USD/CHF break down COULD be significant

chester wb 16:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
excellent work by Farmacia on calling the 18th a turning point in euro. great job!!!!

prauge viktor 16:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez: its the oil every one now want a strong cur.

nyc jk 16:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
lol fxq. some days you just have to wonder what people are thinking.....

beijing road 16:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
As famacia's turning point indicates, eur will take 1.2450 out tonite?

SA Learning 16:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have an opinion about Gann's theories?

Quito Valdez 16:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
1.2401 printed.

Nassau QF 16:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Security scare delays Eurostar
From correspondents in London
19mar04
EUROSTAR train services between Paris and London were delayed today because of a security alert in the Paris area, the company said today.

No trains had been cancelled and passengers were being advised to check in for their journeys, said a Eurostar spokesman who declined to be identified.

The spokesman had no details about the security alert, but said the delays were not related to today's arrest of a man near the English portal of the Channel Tunnel.

http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,9011307%255E1702,00.html

Quito Valdez 16:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
someone big knows something big.

Det tm 16:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
It appears that futures are outpacing forex today, is that possible?

Confusing because I'm looking at 10 min. delay in futures.

Quito Valdez 16:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
1.24 just seconds away on my chart.

HK [email protected] 16:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Eur 1.2475 on the Menu???

Barcelona Tony 16:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
zorro knew that they were cheap euros wow...

Barcelona Tony 16:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
brutal ...

Nottingham 16:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
aussie testing 100 sma so if it's going to come down here is it's last chance...cable probably has scope for 1.84 handle before worth looking at short...gl gt

Ldn Viewer 16:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Seems 1.2380 Gone , where to next ? TIA

Quito Valdez 16:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
boy oh boy looks like GEP's 1.24 test isn't at all out of the gun sights.

dc fxq 16:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
A statement claiming to come from al-Qaeda has warned of imminent terrorist attacks in Britain and other countries. BBC News.

No doubt why GBP is rallying.

nyc jk 16:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
or - where do you have those lvls on your chart?

Quito Valdez 15:56 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, correct, in this world ANYTHING is possible unfortunately. "Toto, we aren't in Kansas anymore." Wizzard of Oz.

Quito Valdez 15:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
right GEP, who can reliably predict the MOF! :^) thanks amigo.

or 15:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
cable and aud heading toward downsloping daily trendline and nice sell levels again.

Dallas GEP 15:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Yeah Omil, you and Raden mage GREAT calls there.

Dallas GEP 15:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, I have no doubt that MOF will still intervene, but it may be at lower levels than what they may have done previously. My guess is they really won't get too excited until 105.00 levels but I give up trying to guess the MOF

Eilat Dolphin 15:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I just can't prevent myself of thinking that it's improbable, but not stupid, that this possible bomb on the Paris London train tracks could be but a diversion.

sydney fg 15:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
later omil. almost time to wake up here in sydney..!! zz

beijing road 15:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL :nice call on EUR/USD.

HK [email protected] 15:44 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 15:40 GMT March 18, 2004

Are you infected with SAZS.

"Severe acute Zapatero syndrome"??? LOL

Quito Valdez 15:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thankx GEP. this looks like a test mechanism of the BOJ to me..what think? It was said they'd try this fwiw. But bad Iraq war news may be doing this (?).

Quito Valdez 15:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Do you guys think the BOJ/ECB is testing to see what happens if it doesn't control the USD constantly?

Barcelona Tony 15:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
well....bush is happy again $ falling, that's why he need war on terror ... wtf ..........

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FG as long as you locked the profits everything is ok. The pennant has been penetrated for now but like I said before the real resistance is at 1.2370-80 we shall see how far this bounce takes us. Now I will have my late breakfast later everyone. GL GT

Dallas GEP 15:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Too early to tell Valdez, but EUR/USD may try 1.2400 level first. Euro tho is OVERBOUGHT, 1.2365-1.2385 looks tho like a triple top.

Eilat Dolphin 15:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ I though you were the big Texan type driving dragsters with four blonds and eating them hamboues by four.
At dawn.

Quito Valdez 15:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Gep...whadyathink about EUR/USD settling back down to morning levels or planing off at this level?

GER ad 15:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
If EUR/JPY can take 132.10 we may see an other push on EUR/USD. If not, may go lower IMHO.

sydney fg 15:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:26 GMT March 18, 2004
tidy work.
my trailing stop took me out at 1.2338. bugger

Dallas GEP 15:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
NOTTY to be frank. I myself was considering a long on CADDY cloae to here. I think your assumption as usual is correct

Dallas GEP 15:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
No hamburger my friend, had to make quick airport trip. Breakfast time here

Nottingham 15:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gep, that reminds me, i'd take off some of those usdcad shorts at these levels...we are just ahead of 10 day sma and specs will probably chance buys here...gl gt

Eilat Dolphin 15:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Yea, all of us were scared, relation to your order. I hope the hamburger was good too!

sydney fg 15:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
concur with that dallas!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 15:19 GMT March 18, 2004
I am not greedy even if I believe this is going to go up a bit more but my number (1.2360) has been printed so I am out or could trail my stop at this point like we discussed before it all depends on the person. Either way I will come out of this one with my intended limit intact. Today has been good to me but this does not happen everyday so that is why I keep my R/R to my advantage IMHO.

Nassau QF 15:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
More than one incident?
Was this one false?

PARIS, March 18 (Reuters) - Eurostar rail traffic between Paris and London was suspended on Thursday after police were told by a telephone caller of a suspicious package on tracks north of Paris, French railways company SNCF said.
"All train traffic on the TGV high-speed line has been suspended," an SNCF spokeswoman said, adding that this concerned the Eurostar service to London and other trains going north from Paris.

She said police had been notified of a suspicious package on the tracks shortly before 3 p.m (1400 GMT). Bomb disposal experts had been called in, she added.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4597801

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Friends, the euro longing is a prime example of why it generally is NOT a good idea to leave orders in place if you are a daytrader. You want the market to struggle to get to your orders because if it moves too fast, more than likely you will be stopped out going the wrong way. I posted earlier that I had a SELL order in place @ 1.2289 on Euro but when the market made an upmove quickly on the Euro I posted back to REMOVE the sell order because market was moving "too" fast and this is precisely what I meant. Had I NOT tho been on-line at the time, I would have stopped out immediately @ 1.2311. So there you go!!!!

SG Jay 15:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
is it time to short eur/dlr ?

sydney fg 15:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami
still long eur? price thru top of your daily pennant.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd chart will be built by number 1.8374-81 ?
check your indicators !!.. give corection from there?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
is usd/jpy will be really touching 105.40, but if show you 105.25..maybe 104.27 will be as bottom
buy there if be touched.

London ADK 15:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GER ad 15:12 - thx

GER ad 15:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry,
Chanell=Channel

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Stops moved up to lock in profit looks like eur/usd is struggling to get over the 1.2345-50 but the real resistance is at 1.2370-80 area IMHO.

Nottingham 15:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Past terror related events weakened GBP/FFr against DMK so best way to play that would be to long eurgbp, the nearest equivalent, if tragedy was to strike the UK...cable would be difficult to call as kneejerk up I suspect would be followed by decline, but this is less ceratin than eurgbp outcome...gl gt

Eilat Dolphin 15:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Tom/ America is on the verge of loosing the Irak war, an event which nobody could predict, as it was impossible to imagine Iraki citizens mass killing their own families and friends without even having a civil war.

Now they have to cope with the dead for another 90 days.

Hard policy. Bush score could be laminated beyond repair...

((and the $ should go up as a change is percieved.))

GER ad 15:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
London ADK,
IFR 14:50 Chanell Tunnel Bombe Rumour false

prague mark 15:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
close bets: eur/usd 1,2280; beast 1,826

Barcelona Tony 15:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
WTF this bush is killing me ... he must have shorted some $ again before the elections ... geez ... down again

Antwerp Tom 15:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, so is mine.

London ADK 15:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
UK 15:06 GMT March 18, 2004 - We would all appreciate if you state the source of your information and also choose an appropriate handle.

Eilat Dolphin 15:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Tom/ Sure. My History is bleeding...

sydney fg 15:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
antwerp.
might mean the US will be further strectched militarily ....not good for US confidence

UK 15:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Police dispel Bomb Rumours

Antwerp Tom 15:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, Europe has already surrendered long ago (e.g. past elections in Spain)...

Nassau QF 15:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
He could have just been a nut case not a terrorist.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 15:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
IMO.
eur/jpy will strong bullish.

hong kong nt 15:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- score 30 pip on usd/jpy is a sweating exercise...

Eilat Dolphin 15:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The market didn't believe the rumor. Looks like someone was caught short...

Nassau QF 15:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Anti-Terror Police Arrest Man on Chunnel Rail Line

By James Tapsfield, PA News


Police used anti-terrorist powers today to arrest a man walking on a railway line which forms part of the Channel Tunnel Link.

A spokeswoman for Kent Police said officers closed off a section of track near Dover this morning after reports a man was walking on the rails.

The man was later arrested under the Terrorism Act and is currently being questioned, she added.

A full security check is being carried out on the track area.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2667033

Tallinn viies 15:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg report a man has been arrested on a UK rail line, under the terrorism act. The London-Dover train line has been closed in the wake of the arrest.

Eilat Dolphin 15:00 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Tom/ Why, you want Europe to surrender to you?

UK GF 15:00 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Forays Above 1.8300 - Bomb Rumour False ifr

however the flasher is now in Bond Street

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I am worry with BOJ action to help Yen now.
eur/jpy and gbp/jpy are cheap for that Central Bank.
be carefull....

Dublin CK 14:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom

WMD - I can see the headline now

"Willy of Massive Distraction"

LOL

Antwerp Tom 14:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
jk, you have a spare weapon? i'll go flash it in Brussels to support the eur...lol

Eilat Dolphin 14:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I've have been monitoring Horrible Sky News for the last ten minutes, and not a flash on it... ; men play with something that rolls on some lawn.

melbourne farmacia 14:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - lets wait and see, but maybe not - 1.2340 system level so i closed some longs.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
aud/usd 0.7518 or 0.7579,
top?

dc fxq 14:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Antwerp Tom 14:53 GMT I was being very facetious. It simply underscores the idiotic thinking of spec minded traders these fays.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd.. only reaction from 1.2334.
but don't forget about deposit emotion to get 1.2384,
but from where? LOL

nyc jk 14:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
yeah it's difficult to imagine a man flashing his "dangerous weapon" in Trafalgar Sq is a reason to buy GBP.........

Antwerp Tom 14:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
How can a shift of terrorist attacks from the us to europe be eur positive?

UK GF 14:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD sells off vs European majors on talk of suspicious package in Channel Tunnel also man arrested under UK Anti-Terrorsm Act on train in SE England near Tunnel. Rumors provide catalyst for intraday players who had gone too heavily short EUR to cover postions another man flashing in Trafalgar Square with dangerous weapon arrested

Would have thought all this would be Dollar positive and Aussie Dollar negative with risk aversion on the menu

Eilat Dolphin 14:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Rumor or Fact ?

dc fxq 14:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sorry, I meant the rumour was very EUR/GBP positive and USD negative.

London ADK 14:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
London ADK 14:47 GMT March 18, 2004
Bloomberg: Man arrested on train line under terrorism act London Dover line closed

UK GF 14:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ifr posted it cant seem to find anything else at the moment

dc fxq 14:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Vaults 1.8287 amid Channel Tunnel Bomb Rumour .....

Terrificly EUR/GBP and USD negative "news". Must be that "secret" link between NYC and WashDC :)

sydney fg 14:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
puked eur out at 1.2338
wait for a pull back and consider buying 1.2300

Nassau QF 14:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
uK GF 14:34

Any links to that rumor?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
My main target for my intraday position is 1.2360 and it looks good so far with 1.2380-70 being the top for now we will see if it has enough force.

hk ab nzd .6 14:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, let's see if it has enough energy to go there 1.2453...

hands off. take a break. and the positions are still fine.

limits left are the nzd .6600 and .6650

uK GF 14:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD: Vaults 1.8287 amid Channel Tunnel Bomb Rumour

sydney fg 14:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
took back shorts at 1.2268, went long at 98

LHR B747 14:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab .6 nzd 16:32 GMT: every comment/remark is ok for me, thank you.

GL GT

Tallinn viies 14:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
seems that buying the euro here isnt bad idea at all. target at 1,2400/50 I think

Nottingham 14:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...has given up 200 sma once again, but game not up for bulls just yet, 1.3275/80 is last line in sand ahead of more substantial losses towards 1.32...200 sma is now overhead resistance...gl gt

SanFrancisco tg 14:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Todays jobless report brings the total down to levels seen prior to the March-November 2001 recession.

SanFrancisco tg 14:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Todays jobless report brings the total down to levels seen prior to the March-November 2001 recession.

Eilat Dolphin 14:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Just in. Did something initiate this spike that seems to have some Leg ?

Nottingham 14:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
beijing road 14:02 GMT

Those levels that I sometimes quote come from my own system...it's mechanical but highly accurate as I have made the compromise of trading less frequently and limiting return to defined level, for guarantee of this return to the tune of +96% accuracy...if you apply these rules you'll be able to create something yourself, it just means spending some time back-testing ideas...regarding trend reversals, it does work very well, but prices won't make major reversals everytime overextension levels are hit so from that perspective its not guaranteed and would need discretion, essentially increasing risk, something I wish to avoid...glgt

hk ab nzd .6 14:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
long chf 1.2703 half lot.

sar jf 14:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
struggling with flu and making sense of a very trickymarket - today is up day before tomorrows bloodbath

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I have no sell signal on eur/usd yet IMHO.

Riga Nick 14:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP
You'll be lookin to sell at 1.2300?
Sorry, how long did it take you to develope your trading style?
Thanks. TG

HK Kevin 14:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk nt, which level would you exit your short USD/CAD from 1.3440. Think to go long near 1.33.
hk ab, short USD/JPY position stop loss at 107.89 this morning. No luck.

sydney fg 14:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
was lucky to get eur back there at 1.2268.

Ldn 14:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Any rumours out there on the Eur/$ rise

hk ab nzd .6 14:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
first nz limit kick in at .6555

hk ab nzd .6 14:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
jf// thanks and I think I will pretty love to go for dinner.....

and come back to see my goose toast.

How are you lately?

nyc jk 14:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
short EUR 1.2288

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gold..gold.. 416.50
eur/usd thinking 1.2334 as minimum target. ideal 1.2385
cut switch for usd/cad.

Lahore FM 14:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Now

sar jf 14:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab think this is last rise for eur aud n gbp just need to let them find tops first then short - overshoot is small problem

Dallas GEP 14:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro up tto fast take sell order out for now

Lahore FM 14:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The squeeze ends in five miuntes Buy Dollar.

hk ab nzd .6 14:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
no way for another hoax to sustain.

hk ab nzd .6 14:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
take all the profit on aud/nzd long above 1.12 lots.

now leaving those 1.11xx lots open.

play more cad. 1.3350

hk ab nzd .6 14:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ha, fooled arond by yenny....

sydney fg 14:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
whoa

ln 14:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
does anyone know of any good excel based spreadsheet links that i can use to test systems. i just want to test a simply MA crossover system.

Dallas GEP 14:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Ok guys I am leaving the board for a while BUT I have a SELL order waiting on EUR/USD @ 1.2289 with stop @ 1.2311 and TP @ 1.2251.

beijing road 14:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham: how you define and identify the o/s and o/b level? These levels also indicate possible primary trend arrest even reversal Pls. Your help appreciated!

France Lucky Strike 14:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Big boost on Gold....

IST Sez 13:56 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I closed my short eur at 1,2250 from 1,2261
No bad.

hk ab nzd .6 13:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
RTN// I would say the cad/jpy is now influencing thedlr/cad heavily which made it fatigue on all fronts.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I was talking about eur/usd of course.

prague jv 13:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
still waiting for more long aud/usd @ 0.7380/7400 . gl

Dallas GEP 13:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Yeah AB, if that breaks (eur/gbp) ; EURO/USD goes lower from HERE. Of course there are DOUBLE support areas of 1.2240 on eur/usd and .6710/15 on EUR/GBP

Alicante RTN 13:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Even though I have a small long usdcad from 1.3377, the lack of any meaningful move north after weak Canadian CPI fig and strong US PPI and initial claims fig is cause for some concern.

May inidicate that this period of rel usd strength is coming to an end.

Should have taken out 1.3440 res by now, imo.

Watch usdcad as it may givean advance notice re other majors.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Mix bag here guys it looks like the market was not impressed by the numbers but the bias right now would be for short when 1.2240 is taken but the 1.2240-30 is the pennant support right now in my day chart and that may be a good support IMHO.

sydney fg 13:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks hk. keeping an eye on that now. need more screens grr

hk ab nzd .6 13:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gep, not much time left if eur/gbp goes fast....

Brazil, JH 13:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, sounds like a plan..It may take awhile to get there, I'm heading for the pool , Thanks..GL

sydney fg 13:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
looks that way dallas. eur/jpy pulled back tho. not giving up yet.

Dallas GEP 13:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Ab, I may join you on short on Aussie BUT I like .7450 area with stop above .7575 better so I will wait for that.

Dallas GEP 13:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
To me Euro downside PROBABLY limited. Good sell I think from 1.2280/90 area though back down to 1.2250. That 1,2240 area may limit shorts for now.

hk ab nzd .6 13:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
will we see less than 300k soon?

hk ab nzd .6 13:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
gbp/chf worth a look.

hk ab nzd .6 13:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sell 3 lots aud .7425.

sydney fg 13:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
short here still

Nassau QF 13:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Prices for finished energy goods increased 4.7 percent in January,
after registering a 1.6-percent gain in the prior month. Leading this
acceleration, the gasoline index surged 14.1 percent, following a 3.4-
percent rise in December.

http://bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Dallas GEP 13:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Ranges tightening. For Euro that would be be 1,2240 to 1.2280 approximately

Dallas GEP 13:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Euro creeping back up to where it was before release.

sydney fg 13:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
quick bounce off 1.2240

UK 13:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Treasurys Extend Losses On Stronger Than Expected PPI
US Jan Producer Prices Up 0.6%; Consensus +0.4%

Stockholm za 13:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.....USD/CAD .......Today
on/off :-
13419-13411-13402-13387-13372-13363-13355
The z...
13553-13521-z1
13492-13470-z2
13454-13438-z3
13336-13320-z4
13304-13282-z5
13253-13221-z6
ema 233 play....
Happy trades......

Dallas GEP 13:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Data PPI was @ .6 Inflation is creeping in so inferred is US could raise rates which means USD positive effect (all speculation), Eur dropped 20 pips Not a huge effect yet though

UK GF 13:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
US Jobless Claims Down 6,000 To 336,000 In March 13 Wk

Nassau QF 13:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Delayed January PPI up 0.6%; Jobless claims down to 336,000 in latest week.

sydney fg 13:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ppi +.6, exp +.4

ex food + en +.3, exp .1

IST Sez 13:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   

U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 336,000 MAR 13 WK VS 342,000 PRIOR WK (PREV 341,000)

US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 344,000 MAR 13 WK FROM REV 346,000 PRIOR WK

U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS LOWEST 316,000 IN JAN 13, 2001 WK
15:30 18Mar2004 RTRS-U.S. CONTINUED CLAIMS ROSE TO 3,064,000 MAR 06 WK FROM REV 3,017,000 PRIOR WK


hk ab nzd .6 13:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
336k

hk ab nzd .6 13:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
data?

Nassau QF 13:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab
and PPI

Nottingham 13:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I'd echo Athens' comments there...0.25% extension from 106.66 primary o/s is 106.93...if you have your fingers crossed for further retracement (still conventionally o/s until 108) put stop at my 0.25% level...gl gt

hk ab nzd .6 13:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
revdax and leading indicator.

Athens 13:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FWIW I squared my $/JPY and EUR/JPY contras suggested in the morning for a modest profit shortly ago on the Yen minor retracement. I am never greedy with contras. Bibi and good luck.

hk ab nzd .6 13:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sez, we are on the opp. direction.

IST Sez 13:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
HK nb and Prague JV ,
Frds be careful with your cad long poss.
Canada inflation data imply another rate cut according the market.
gl,gt

hk ab nzd .6 13:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
1 full lot is done on eur/chf same place. 1.5625

saloniko 2004 nk 13:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..


Market is moving in a terrorist fear i think long time ago..
The overshoot Euro or the downmove $ was a real example though..
This bad campain is move now to Europe and the effect was $bounch ..
I thing the ECB will maintain the stability of euro..

Dont know what will huppen if market move in opposite way than terrorist ..like fear in Europe and Euro UP ..fear in US and $UP ..

I bet their cash will be hit by margin bomb..

nk


hk ab nzd .6 13:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sp// I have a very strange feeling on aud/nzd.....

very neat gut feeling.....

Sofia TNZ 13:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 13:08 GMT March 18, 2004
ti id2 li si bre?
GL GT

hk ab nzd .6 13:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
REvdax, nothing big this week, only jobless claim in 15 mins.

How are you? Have u fully recovered yet?

hk ab nzd .6 13:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, wanna long eur/chf herE?
enter half at 1.5630 first.

Quito Valdez 13:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
G'mornin'! I guess it's true that the BOJ (& maybe with ECB help?) will sit heavy on the eur/usd until the end of the month (their physcal year end) so that Jap year-end figures look better. This sitting position is done whether or not the USA likes it. Who agrees and who disagrees? Boycot sushi. `^)

Plovdiv Gotin 13:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
to Nick/If supp.131.05 hold.

hk revdax 13:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab//is the mkt waiting for any news announcement to day?

Plovdiv Gotin 13:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
to Nick/If supp.131.05 hold.

hk ab nzd .6 12:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
jv, u are the big bear? hahaha

Riga Nick 12:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Hello.
Does anybody following EURJPY. It seems to me will be nice buy signal if breaks above 131.15 GL GT

SPB Mike 12:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Frankfurt GF 12:45
"...things on the agenda -planning and contigencies for an attack which might affect the financial system and possible impact on consumer confidence etc (a target for them at the moment). they've not yet announced a press conference or any statement but they may well come out with a press release underlining their readiness to act if needed..." UBS

prague jv 12:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
added to short 1.3390 stop 1.3422 target 1.3187

hk ab nzd .6 12:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// aud/jpy is marching to 79.07

hk ab nzd .6 12:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// I have stolen a lot of goose now. for frying...

hk ab nzd .6 12:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I think the nice joke is, "We support a strong eur".

And then, when eur drops like a rock, they still say, "we support a strong eur and respect market decision"...

Frankfurt GF 12:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ECB meeting has a non monetary policy agenda so do not expect anything from it.

SPB Mike 12:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Though there's no ecb press-conference sheduled 4 today it's still possible that ecb will make some statement/pressrelease after the meeeting. News(if any) abt latter are much apriciated.
GL4all !

hk ab nzd .6 12:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
checking checking, any stop left on dlr/cad downside,

long 1 more 1.3376

hk ab nzd .6 12:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
PAR, hte order seem should be reversed.

PAR 12:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
After taking profit on DLRYEN Japanese now looking to take profit on US treasuries ?

Chambery FR JFB 12:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:45 GMT March 18, 2004
What software do you use to write your model? XL? Should be possible to have one sheet for 30' data and another for 5', then run the model on a third... :-) imho of course...

Back to your 5' : can't you get any help from the MACD? something like : only enter trade when both EMA cross AND MACD say so? That should be easy to implement...

Happy trades :-)

hk ab nzd .6 12:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
IT's all the tricky job in jpy player's hand.....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
No problem AB that was for cpi-x8 only and I am glad I can help. All items inflation rose a marginal 0.7% from last year and only 0.2% over Jan. CPI ex-food and energy only rose .1% month to 1.1% annually it looks like the goose flights are going to have to limit the distance now. Oil prices will surely increase because the tap will not be open at this time and this will hurt the world economy in a big way IMHO.

hk ab nzd .6 12:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Raden, bollinger band

Now, I know u use chopstick....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd .6 12:20 GMT March 18, 2004
what's bb? please explain.
let's open 4 hours candle.
there is low candle at 1.3164 and there is low candle at 1.3274.
please draw line from that 2 low.
we can predict 1.3473 in 4 hours candle now.

hk ab nzd .6 12:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt/ all commodities now depends on the level I mentioned previously.

hk ab nzd .6 12:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// close my aud/jpy for 1 pip. hehhe


the cad/jpy is driving my dlrcad crazy.

GVI john 12:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2265…$/yen 106.85
DJIA -43 pts… 10-yr 3.70%, 0 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
see GVI for text

hong kong nt 12:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- aud 0.7500/20 a sell?

hong kong nt 12:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- steal chicken to long small usdjpy at 70, stop 45...

pj amc 12:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney.............it keeps me out of major turnarounds once i am profitable.......but i am new at this so any help/tips you have would be very helpful

prague jv 12:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
we have seen the high for today on usd/cad . sell and watch your money grow .

hk ab nzd .6 12:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks OMIL veyr much.

hk ab nzd .6 12:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Raden, could u be more clear please? you meant it blast up or down?

sydney fg 12:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
cool miami.

eur finally breaks out of london range. sits on 50% retracement form asian rally from 1.2220.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Core 1.1% expected 1.2%

hk ab nzd .6 12:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I see it's highly related to yen crosses.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
very..very danger for new sellling position now for usd/cad.
my subjective analysis

Eilat Dolphin 12:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
PAR/ Basra, car bomb. Four casualties already known.

hk ab nzd .6 12:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, sorry, nope.

I need cad cpi.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 12:16 GMT March 18, 2004
No problem or bother that is why we are all here for to help each other IMHO.

hk ab nzd .6 12:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
but Raden, just like any TA, these number should be related to fib, bb, mas right?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
AB that seemed to be a $ positive spike across the board in general any ideas on what is going on.

PAR 12:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Rumors of new bomb attack in Iraq.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd .6 12:13 GMT March 18, 2004
ya.. that,s only my TA
LOL.. I don't have the reason.. only my subjective TA

sydney fg 12:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami, agree. discusion over. sorry for the bother and thanks for the input.

hk ab nzd .6 12:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, I found that the dlrchf likes your 1.2750 number v. much.

SOFIA trader 12:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
strange, very starnge pair is the USDCAD...

long 85 fwiw

hk ab nzd .6 12:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I just look for 10 pips in my audjpy long ;)

hk ab nzd .6 12:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
prague jv 12:12 GMT March 18, 2004
imho , we have seen the high for today on usd/cad


You just see a spike down produced by the cad/jpy buyer protection.

once dlr/jpy moves up, the dlr/cad follows immediately.

sydney fg 12:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thanks ur thoughts miami.

pj 5pips??? might aswell just bail out and be done with it, no?
trailing 5 pips i would guess that you very, very rarely see a winner bigger than your initial 30 pips?? unless ur an interbanl trader and able to get hit on your spread

hk ab nzd .6 12:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Raden, what's some significant impt of 1.3473?

prague jv 12:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
imho , we have seen the high for today on usd/cad .

Nassau QF 12:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The January PPI, due at 8:30 a.m. EST(1330 GMT), is expected to show that U.S. producer prices rose 0.4 percent in January after climbing 0.3 percent in December, according to economists polled by Reuters. The core PPI, the index without its more volatile food and energy components, is expected to be up 0.1 percent for January after slipping 0.1 percent in December.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing business outlook survey offered a fairly robust reading of 31.4 in February. The March index, due at noon (1700 GMT) on Thursday, is expected to read 30.0, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Of less importance to the market is the Conference Board's index of leading indicators, estimated to have risen 0.1 percent in February after climbing 0.5 percent in January, according to economists polled by Reuters.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4591162


Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 12:05 GMT March 18, 2004

Yes but initially what are you willing to loose and that is the whole idea because believe me you won’t reach your 30 pips all the time. I believe this discussion should be taken to the help forum and leave the space for the traders comments about the market IMHO.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
okay..okay..
usd/cad.. seen start level is here (1.3382)
still focuse for 1.3473

hk ab nzd .6 12:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
buy aud/jpy 79.45

hk ab nzd .6 12:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
add 1.3389

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:59 GMT March 18, 2004
Definitely the idea is to get out of a trade winning at least 120 pips or losing at most 40 pips. Now how you go about doing it is up to you. This is of course examples and we are using 1 to 3 as the example you can use other r/r ratios also.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hello !
about usd/cad when at 1.3419
you can still buy..but must exit when touch at 1.3473
I got the feeling many sellers there.
be carefull !!

pj amc 12:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami something that i have used that has worked well so far is once i am up 30 pips i trail it with a 5 pip stop loss...........just a thought

hk ab nzd .6 12:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
cad/jpy eyeing 79.21 200 wma

aud/jpy 79.06 200 dma

sydney fg 12:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
jeez u watch some funky pairs hk

hk ab nzd .6 12:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
buy one more cad 1.3405.

hk ab nzd .6 12:00 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
BOJ is working on jpy crosses... look how funny the cad/jpy.

sydney fg 11:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami, just so i'm sure i read u correctly - your opnion is that u should not use a trailing stop until your target lvl has been reached?
I am inclined to agree if so.

hk ab nzd .6 11:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
oops, done.

hk ab nzd .6 11:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
place buy stop limit on dlrcad 1.3408.

hk ab nzd .6 11:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
does anyone have cad cpi?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:51 GMT March 18, 2004
You may have to try other time frames like say 1hr, 4hr or 1day. These time frames may give you a better chance with bigger stops and bigger limits. Trailing stops are fine once you have locked in your given limit but not before that IMHO.

hk ab nzd .6 11:57 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
there's no time left, if aud/jpy stays here, the uridishi will become a disaster soon.

sydney fg 11:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami,
yes, that is how i tend to think of it too and as such have been using a norrower stop. But it's days like today when price is range bound that get me questioning my method.

Also, out of interest, do you guys use trailing stops, or just let 'em fly? Would u rather give yourself the full chance at 100 pips or bust, or chip away with the smaller winners. Trailing stops in my experience tend to see me taking profit too early ...bad physcology??

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:39 GMT March 18, 2004
Obviously a bigger stop will always give you a better chance but that should always equate to a much bigger reward. In the long run you will have a better chance for survival if you protect your capital and have it ready for another fight. That is what is all about because only money can make you money and with out it you could not place your bets IMHO.

sydney fg 11:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
chamberry,
thanks for the imput.
yes, i have used that 30 min and 5 min method in the past. But that is very difficult to write into a model!!!
With this, I am trying to simply be long when price is above an average, or short when below. If u look at a 5 min chart, u can see that price generally moves according to that rule. The problem is when it's range bound and price moves back and forth over the EMA and gives me 5 or 6 dud entry signals.
Now I can choose to stop out at say 10 or 15 pips and take 5 losses, which is 75 pips, or use a 30 pip stop and only get done once or twice.

hk ab nzd .6 11:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
let's see if I could see the 5 fig. move on aud/jpy or not.

hk ab nzd .6 11:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
buy 2 weeks jpy call @107.

sydney fg 11:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami,
thanks for your thoughts.
yes, definately has to be tuned to different pairs and probably time frames too. And yes, risk/reward always better than 1:3.
I just seem to be caught in two minds on the stops. Both methods have their pros and cons.

Chambery FR JFB 11:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:08 GMT March 18, 2004
Imvho :-) You should look the other way around, ie get your stop from bigger timeframes (30' goes well with 5' charts). as GEP would quote, decide of your entry on 30' and fine tune it on 5' :-) You take bigger risks than on 5' only, but the more chance to catch a long move, so better reward... Happy trades

Melbourne Qindex 11:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:53 GMT March 18, 2004
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 130.11 - 131.71 - 133.31. After expanding the range :-

... // 130.11* - 130.91 - 131.71* - 132.51 - 133.31* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 11:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:39 GMT March 18, 2004
USD/JPY : 22-Day Cycle Quantised Levels (17/03)


The distribution profile of my 22-day cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 105.70 - 111.03.


... // 105.70* - 106.59 - 107.47* - (108.36) - 109.25* - 110.14 111.03* // ...

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:21 GMT March 18, 2004
This is where you are going to have to do your homework each currency pair and time frames behave differently and you must act accordingly. For example you could not use the same stops for eur/usd and apply it to gbp/usd you would probably get stopped out all the time. The idea is always make more than you can loose on any given trade you make (40pip stop=120pip limit). I would build around those parameters IMHO

hk ab nzd .6 11:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
does anyone trade eur gbp bonds here? How's the movement lately? TIA.

hk ab nzd .6 11:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
finally, cad/jpy breaks 80

Ga Lee 11:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Well, I'd feel better about the long side of $/cad vs. the short side, with eur$ (which I use as a proxy of sorts) in an hourly downward channel (1.2311/1.2245)...$/cad's 200 daily sma holding thus far however..close above here would give a push I'd think..

hk ab nzd .6 11:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// how's your C9 index going?

KL KL 11:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
TP at 1.8237 reverse long at that level SL 1.8225..looking at 1.8279-1.828x...this is tough man cannot even go to toilet

sydney fg 11:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
miami,
what i'm interested in is thoughts on whether stopping out early, say 10-15 pips leads to missing moves or making too many losing trades...where as giving your trade 30 pips (assuming that's acceptable risk) deosn't see you whipping around so much.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
AB we are going to have to wait for the US data to come out today then we will see who eats who today IMHO.

hk ab nzd .6 11:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
can eur/gbp moves back under 20 sma....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 11:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 11:08 GMT March 18, 2004
I would suggest building your system around money management. Every time you place your bet you have a % to loose or win the idea is to win more than to loose when these factors are on the line. For example a 3-1-win ratio is a good starting point IMHO. GL GT

hk ab nzd .6 11:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Q: Can we kill the bear tonight.... or the bear eats all the bulls on dlrcad?

hk ab nzd .6 11:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, do you have any confident to long with "BOJ line 106"?

sydney fg 11:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
agree there kl.
eur like pulling teeth at the mom

KL KL 11:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
tighten SL of GBP/USD short 1.8274 to 1.8258...this is a range bound till NY...

pd cumino 11:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Re Contra
A better way to look at contra trades is through options structures, or simply exotics. You can adapt your trade to your view. So you simply buy a JPY put, or a KI if you think that a MOF intervention will be, or you buy a RR if you think that MOF will anyway defend a level lower, or you buy a seagull if you want to finance a USD call with a fixed risk, or you buy a fly if your view is a counter-rally not too much great and anyway fixing risk, etcetera.
The difference with spot is that you can design your risk and in the case that spot moves against you "temporarily" you aren't thrown out the trade as with a stop/loss.
The contra trade expecially in the JPY case is somewhat to catch a falling knife, and the faith in MOF sooner or later. May be a right view but if it is iright it is too much to pretend to trade the exact level with 50 pips s/l when you have 600 pips moves in few days.

sydney fg 11:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hi.
i'm trading eur/usd on 5 minute data - trying to stick to a simple model - trading when price moves over moving averages. Does anyone else here model trade?
My biggest hurdle seems to be on my stop lvls - whether to use a very tight stop, or to give the trade extra room - say 20-30 pips, and I was wondering what approaches others take.

Saihat 10:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FOR DEMO

buy..if close 1.2280.....stop 1.2250

sell if close 1.2250...stop 1.2280

Lagos Styrax 10:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY fell to a
low of 106.62 where Japanese banks offered the pair some much needed support.
Some traders are saying that the MoF/BoJ have interest to buy dollars towards
106.50 and below which could help to stem the fall of the dollar

Nottingham 10:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
cork g 10:32 GMT

1. My own
2. Not necessarily but it helps
3. Go back as far as you can, but data needs to be accurate otherwise it's a waste of time

Lagos Styrax 10:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
On the news front, a number of large German companies have warned Chancellor
Schroeder against allowing Deutsche Bank to be purchased by a foreign bank.
Germany"s largest bank has long been touted as a suitor for US Citigroup.
Meanwhile, the FT reports that German carmaker giant, BMW, has ceased all long-
term hedging of the US dollar, and sees an end to the USD"s decline. A BMW
spokesman said that a "correct" EUR/USD level is 1.10

IST Sez 10:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
Do u mind if I ask your usd/cad pos still valid frd?
And what is your point about the direction.
I m looking short again above 1,34?
thank you frd.

Gen dk 10:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

cork g 10:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hello, everyone!
Just want to ask some questions about your system
1.do you buy it or develop it yourself?
2.is your system just consisted of a set of rules, or do you use some software such as tradestation to visualize it so that the signal will be displayed?
3.how long does it need to be tested properly before being used in real trade.
thanks!

Dublin Flip 10:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
RE the contra debate...
It certainly logical to profit and trade a trend position by way of contra (profiting) and reopening. On extreme moves it also a valid trading style but it's also importent to have a reward expectation in mind. If it's 20/30 pips than don't run them forever. If you are buying e.g. 106.70 for 109 next week then you can run it a bit further but it's important to be aware of the "big picture". If the yen crosses (including and in relation to a $jpy below 106) start tanking it's possible to go into hyper space and new stage of liquidation. I'm not telling anyone not to contra trade it's what I do almost exclusively as I'm not a big fan of break trading except in extreme circumstances but coming in cold without a position behind you keep the risks down. One thing we have not heard lately is about $jpy downside risk because of the expectation of BOJ intervention. There are already plenty of murdered $yen longs waiting for "the big out".

Nottingham 10:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
re contras...I tend to look for 0.25% retracement for both my primary and secondary levels...fwiw my primary o/s for $yen is at 106.66 today...but in cases of yen this particular system is less than 100% perfect as there have been 4 occasions on which a negative result would have occured (going back to 1995) even with daily additions...in a couple of those cases a negative result to the tune of further big figures moves...now these severe mpves aren't likely to be repeated, but the point is that yen and it's crosses are the only pairs capable of doing this...for this reason I don't contra trade yen and tend to avoid it for anything but the odd speculative trade...106 today has only two negative results going back to 1995 whilst 105 for today will just about get away with a clean 100% record (autumn 1998 liquidation aside) based on data back to 1995...gl gt

SOFIA trader 10:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
bne bob 09:14 GMT

tnx a lot - very good site!

does anyone have seen a site where rumors and talks of big orders or option protections are posted???
thanks!

Sydney bl 10:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP good afternoon, what's your view on EUR/USD now thanks

Lagos Styrax 09:56 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens
Please don't take offence in my question. Its not a critism its just I am curious. I can say that Im not as savvy in this as most of you. I was just asking for the purpose of education and risk reduction.
sorry to have offended you if I have.

Thanks

SA getFX 09:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Cable has touched the Feb T/L (as I drew it, anyway!).

Athens 09:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Before leaving, a last word. GEP, when I suggest contras they have nothing to do with long term trading. Exactly the opposite. Bifn.

Athens 09:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Lagos Styrax, I have no time to explain in depth. It's purely technical and I don't really care what the forces or the excuses will be. If you don't feel comfortable with contra trading, better leave them out. I am out of here now.

prauge viktor 09:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens thanks as I understand t/p as soon as I can

Dallas GEP 09:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Understood Athens....GL GT

Dallas GEP 09:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
STY, you have to remember that ATHENS is a longer term trader than some of us so his stops or lack thereof is MUCH wider than what you might see for a daytrader. Unless the possie was very small I would NEVER want to leave the board w/o a stop in place of some sort.

Lagos Styrax 09:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens
Well what are the forces that will pull the trend back in this particular situation that will make the intended possie lucrative
Im really tempted to enter aposition here (eur/jpy) if this could be a true bottom.

Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
AG, I don't know WTH is wrong with messenger!!! Friends I will leave you for 3 hours or so because NOW IMO , trading is riskier than normal or MIXED.

KL KL 09:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
short gbp 1.8275 sl 1.8288....see how it goes...target 1.8220 then reverse again

Lagos Styrax 09:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Thanx. So the contras on eur/jpy is to long it @ this level without putting a stop as suggested by Athens?!

Athens 09:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Lagos Styrax, a contra trade is a fast one against the basic direction i.e. in the present case it refers to JPY shorts (long the other currency).

hong kong nt 09:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- got it, trade less, take a rest and come back later...

ICT ML 09:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
BBY Archie.....I have my good and bad days - weeks..this range stuff is wearing on me now....need it to breakout so I can make some real $$$$$..LOL. don't be a stranger mate....

If buying gbp-jpy on a contra, which isn't that bad an idea, target would be around where it broke out of bottom of uptrend the other day...197 area maybe max IMHO.....could see another shallow dip lower...but the indicator trends are all about exhausted for now.....

Athens 09:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GEP, no stops here. I know it moved 300 pips but I didn't suggest contras up thee, I am doing it down here :-)

Dallas GEP 09:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
STY Contras are trades that go against the bias or trend. USD/JPY has been shorting so a contra trade would be for example a LONG on USD/JPY.

PAR 09:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
UK figures are always better than expected because the forecasts are consistently biased to the low side.

Dallas GEP 09:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
So basically UK retail sales were UNCHANGED m/m and +6.5% for y/y. Watch now for some pound shorts to possible come in

Lagos Styrax 09:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Please somebody should help explain what this contras is all about.

hk ab 09:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I am now in a meeting......

geez, the yen is so cute.

listen to bc, don't get involved it. lucky to leave it a.s.a.p. now.

but the longs at 106.05 and 105.05 are very tempting. :)

BBY Archie 09:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML - hello mate nice to see you ... i have been trading but i did not visit the forum often .... actually i have been travelling a lot too ... anyways now i find myself in a soup LONG USD/YEN 108.42 ...... :):))):):) LOL ... how have you been ???

Dallas GEP 09:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
A little better than expected on UK sales probably WON'T go up. M/m was weaker than expected tho

Dallas GEP 09:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens my friend, GBP/JPY has moved 300 pips SHORT in the last 10 HOURS......no stops on this racehorse and you could be in REAL trouble. I do agree tho contras look attractive

ICT ML 09:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Archie....where ya been for the last 6 months?...

Yen at 108+ soon......"maybe"....but don't hold your breath...sorry..

Lagos Styrax 09:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens,
Thanx, but is it to buy jpy or sell.
Contras is not clear here please

BBY Archie 09:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi Hi forum .... i am long usd/yen from 108.42 .... i dont mind holding it but does any one see that level soon ???? TIA

Porto PJT 09:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Athens, makes perfect sense.

Helsinki iw 09:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for the input Athens.

PAR 09:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
As usual UK retail sales will be much stronger than expected due to perpetual use of expensive credit cards which help fuel banks and retailers profits.

Athens 09:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Tip for today: at current levels trade JPY contras on any of the three major JPY pairs (current levels are 106.85, 131.20 and 194.90). No price stops, allow fo 24 hours of needed but book any fast profit if seen, don't try to ride positions too long, a "profit or money back" case. Good luck.

Dallas GEP 09:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Good UK sales data could push POUND past 1.8300 fig

bne bob 09:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
SOFIA trader 08:53 GMT March 18, 2004
Try http://batr.org/markets/calendar.html

GL

KL KL 09:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
up sl to 1.8238....

Indonesia bahari2003 09:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:46 GMT March 18, 2004
thanks, see you tomorrow

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:46 GMT March 18, 2004
thanks, see you tomorrow

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:46 GMT March 18, 2004
thanks, see you tomorrow

Dallas GEP 09:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I thought we had UK sales out at 9:30 GMT KL

KL KL 09:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 08:46 , Your view on Nikkie and FTSE....do you trade them as well??

BTW move up SL of GBP to 1.828 from a buy at 1.820...just playing kamikaze...have no idea where it is going

Singapore Sfx 08:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for that gf .. and good trades..

KL KL 08:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
long gbp/usd at 1.820 sl 1.808....tp at 1.8265 taking small risk/gamble due to support at 1.822. Nothing -ve on UK today more on US

UK GF 08:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx sorry only just seen you post , you seem to have found some info.

SOFIA trader 08:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
guys,

does anyone have some idea of a web site where I can read some economic analysis of the UK and US data to be released today and the eventual impact on the currency rates???

suggestions appreciated!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 08:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro 07:14 GMT March 18, 2004
I try to give alternative to you to choose entry level buy or sell, because ussually my level give "specific emotion". :-) and give you flg profit from there.
we see that.. for example for gbp/usd today from high and usd/jpy from low today.

hong kong nt 08:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia bahari2003 08:05 -- better let the profit run overnight, first target 12500. wave A-5-3 in progress. expect DJI -100 tonight. good trades...

hk revdax 08:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
SOFIA trader 08:25 //i have hope but no idea...

Singapore Sfx 08:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Thanks sunstate ... being told just a low intensity shakeup .. cheers.

brisbane sunstate 08:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 08:21 GMT
http://www.1stheadlines.com/
gl

SOFIA trader 08:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hello, - I looked at the consensus figures for the US data at 13:30, 15:00, 17:00 GMT and it looks kinda bad compared to previous -

does anyone support the idea that we'll see the EUR rally all the day till the data release?

Singapore Sfx 08:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
UK GF 08:13 GMT March 18, 2004
Strong Earthquake Jolts India's New Delhi

Where did you get that news pls, mate ?

Athens 08:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Athens 18:57 GMT March 15, 2004
Eilat Dolphin...Too many in the market had it for granted that March being the FYE month in Japan guaranteed a continuous uptrend till month end. However, we have seen again in the past this "obvious" parameter to be fooled an $/JPY moving lower.

UK gf 08:16 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD -- the currency soared on the benign inflation data and should accelerate further from here. The currency should rally further from here and revisit 1.3450 - 1.3500 upside targets

UK GF 08:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Strong Earthquake Jolts India's New Delhi

CAIRO AG 08:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
No problem my friend... am here as well..
EVERYWHERE.... that's what Al Pacino said in Devil's Advocat.

Vancouver, BC, Canada TWF 08:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Traders!

Does anyone else see the huge multi-level reverse head and shoulders patern on USD/CAD? Fundamentally (not my niche), this would be consistant with he BOCanada coming late to the EasingParty and all the beer gone....no? Are we not seeing a huge move higher for USD/CAD? Please prove me wrong!

TWF

MONACO OGA 08:10 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 18/03
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2290), 20 pips higher than yesterday's opening. EUR/USD made another try on the 1,2170 support point yesterday in the US session before rebounding on the news of a bomb explosion in Irak, while commodities and metals kept rallying. This morning, we believe the EUR/USD has some upside potential and should test 1,2370-80. Support for the day 1,2250 then 1,2220. On the longer term, a base seems to be building below 1,2200 with a retest of 1,2450 in the cards. Overall we are still neutral on the medium term as the market still seems attracted by the downsides.

Data out today:

UK retail sales Feb expected 0.1% 09.30 GMT
EZ labour cost 4Q1 expected 2.8% 10.00 GMT
US initial jobless claims Mar 13 expected 345K 13.30 GMT
US leading indicators Feb expected 0.1% 13.30 GMT
US Phili FED Mar expected 29.3 17.00 GMT
FOMC minutes 19.00 GMT

Gold around 407,00 , with WTI April at 38,18.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 107,10) broke yesterday's 108 support and printed a 1 month low at 106,75 in Asia, with Nikkey gains fuelling JPY's rally. The pair is now eyeing key support at 105,50 where BOJ built a wall last February. As we noted a few days ago, the downside is clearly the soft side.
EUR/JPY (currently 131,70) still looking offered now that 132,50 gave way, if 130,70 breaks, sub 130 levels could be seen very fast.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8260) breaking 1,8200 resistance and heading higher helped by rising oil prices. 1,8450 upsides target. Support for the day at 1,8220.
EURGBP (0,6725) lost most of its early March gains. Cross is reflecting the carry trade and oil factors definitely in favour of the Pound. Expect 0,6680 to provide some support.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

MONACO OGA 08:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
FX UPDATE 18/03
Good morning,

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1,2290), 20 pips higher than yesterday's opening. EUR/USD made another try on the 1,2170 support point yesterday in the US session before rebounding on the news of a bomb explosion in Irak, while commodities and metals kept rallying. This morning, we believe the EUR/USD has some upside potential and should test 1,2370-80. Support for the day 1,2250 then 1,2220. On the longer term, a base seems to be building below 1,2200 with a retest of 1,2450 in the cards. Overall we are still neutral on the medium term as the market still seems attracted by the downsides.

Data out today:

UK retail sales Feb expected 0.1% 09.30 GMT
EZ labour cost 4Q1 expected 2.8% 10.00 GMT
US initial jobless claims Mar 13 expected 345K 13.30 GMT
US leading indicators Feb expected 0.1% 13.30 GMT
US Phili FED Mar expected 29.3 17.00 GMT
FOMC minutes 19.00 GMT

Gold around 407,00 , with WTI April at 38,18.

***JPY***
USD/JPY (currently 107,10) broke yesterday's 108 support and printed a 1 month low at 106,75 in Asia, with Nikkey gains fuelling JPY's rally. The pair is now eyeing key support at 105,50 where BOJ built a wall last February. As we noted a few days ago, the downside is clearly the soft side.
EUR/JPY (currently 131,70) still looking offered now that 132,50 gave way, if 130,70 breaks, sub 130 levels could be seen very fast.

***GBP***
Cable (currently 1,8260) breaking 1,8200 resistance and heading higher helped by rising oil prices. 1,8450 upsides target. Support for the day at 1,8220.
EURGBP (0,6725) lost most of its early March gains. Cross is reflecting the carry trade and oil factors definitely in favour of the Pound. Expect 0,6680 to provide some support.
Have a nice day,

Olivier

Dallas GEP 08:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
AG, Messenger appears to be down, can't log in.

Indonesia bahari2003 08:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt-censored right man... thank you, I already short hsi at 12900 and 12825, and just think about to overnight it. what do you think? is it okay? actually I prefer closed one of them at this level

hk revdax 07:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia//$/CHF 'could' bounce back today before dropping again tomorrow but i 'hope' it might as well drop like h*ell today. Macau indicator is a bit mixed. So keep your stop tight.

usa tom 07:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
short aud at 7446, ab how about u?

melbourne farmacia 07:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hk revdax 07:34 GMT March 18, 2004
Magic word " Could " not " will " GT

OMIL - LOL - dinner time & trails in place. GT

IST Sez 07:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Closed my short usd/cad 1,3373 .no greedy

hk ab nzd .6 07:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
forget to add long chf 1.2705 to the orignal lots.

hm..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sorry the currency I was talking about is eur/usd but the small crowd that reads my comments probably knew that already.

UK GF 07:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO (AP)--The Islamic militant group that claimed responsibility for last week's Madrid train bombings has warned that its next targets could be Japan, Italy, Britain or Australia, an Arabic newspaper reported Thursday

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia looks like your famous today mate lol. This is what happens when you lay your ideas on the forum. :-) My intraday long looks good so far as long as it can crack this last fib line. However my mid-term position looks very suspicious according to the moves for the rest of the week I believe we should see a better picture for midterm positions IMHO. GL GT

CAIRO AG 07:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia: Thanks my friend

hk ab nzd .6 07:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// lucky to fill one 1.23 by my bank.

UK GF 07:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD -- the currency soared on the benign inflation data and should accelerate further from here. The currency should rally further from here and revisit 1.3450 - 1.3500 upside targets
censored

hk revdax 07:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 07:20 GMT//You wrote:".... But this is a ranging market, so expect euro to break the range. so sometime within the next 12 hours euro could trade @ 1.2454 before a major sell off, or move down @ 1.1960 before a major bounce...."

You are doing fortune telling. Aren't you?

Ldn Hat 07:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG 07:26 Thanks u r right I changed my s/l to 1.8350

melbourne farmacia 07:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG - I'm just following the flow and techs, ie long both euro & Gbp until and if the market turns. GT

CAIRO AG 07:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
London Hat// May i suggested to extend ur sl 10-15 pips, especially that u started the Short 30-40 p earlier, .... IMVHO.

Ldn Hat 07:22 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
This is a pure Gamble trade but I shorted GBP/USD at 1.8255 stop 1.8300 target 1.8150 IMHO Thanks

melbourne farmacia 07:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab - the odds suggest euro etc .. reverses current direction in a trending market. But this is a ranging market, so expect euro to break the range. so sometime within the next 12 hours euro could trade @ 1.2454 before a major sell off, or move down @ 1.1960 before a major bounce. On the last cycle day euro hit 1.2927. So expect the unexpected. By NY close we should have a fear idea where to put our penny or two in the following days.

IST Sez 07:18 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone!!
Good Luck & Good trade to all.
I m still short usd/cad from 1,3422
ı can close it current level.
Dallas frd, how about your short usd/cad?

shanghai bc 07:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   

L --Terrorism has not much to do with surging Oil price..Today,Saudi daily production alone cannot satisfy China's daily demand even if there is a pipeline connecting the two countries..And those flotila of vessels lining up in all Chinese sea ports like the the days of Allies Normandy landing operation cannot even satisfy the normal need of Chinese oil consumption..You can check back the co-relation between Oil price and Dollar and Yen..There is another silent war on Oil front to grab as much Oil as one can for all major countries..Yen is not rising for nothing..Japan may be yielding to US pressure but they know which side of the bread is butter too..

Montréal Taro 07:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Raden
those level to buy and level to sell, are do you obtain them ?

Brisbane L 07:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
IMF 'to revise US growth figures'
The International Monetary Fund is to raise its forecast for world economic growth in 2004 to 4.6%, Germany's Handelsblatt newspaper reports. But the forecast for the euro zone remains unchanged at 1.9%.

hk ab nzd .6 07:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
the big BEAR in dlr/cad seems still don't give up yet and pushed the dlr/cad right under the 200 sma to close.....

CAIRO AG 07:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia: Hi... Ok, based on ur calculations, where are u placing ur bets on euro?? TIA

Brisbane L 07:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Oil prices surge to 13 year high
US crude oil prices have reached their highest level since 1990 as ongoing global terrorism fears continue to put an upward pressure on the market.
LINK

hong kong nt 07:03 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia bahari2003 -- thanks for stronger yen and falling nikkei dragging hang seng down, 12400 soon...

Melbourne Qindex 07:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 05:38 GMT March 14, 2004
AUD/JPY : Can the market stablize around the 80 mark?

In view of various cycle analyses the odds are good that the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the 80 mark. My 3-day cycle charts indicate that the market will consolidate between 80.36 - 81.88 and then it will head for 77.32 - 77.67. My current 22-day & 44-day cycle charts suggest that a projected resistant level is positioning at 81.71 - 81.98 and the market is pulling towards the lower trading range of 78.70 - 80.28.


44-Day Cycle Quantised Levels (Current)

... 72.37* ... // 78.70* - 80.28 - 81.86* - 83.44 // 85.02* ...

hk ab nzd .6 07:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, may I ask how you calculate these days? do u use gaan?

One of my friends in the old days he uses gaan + fib + many things to set up some impt days as well. However, he never shows up any more (hope that it's not because he is cleaned out).....

Brisbane L 06:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Interesting report from Westpac similar to what Gold Coast Martin has been talking about recently
Farmacia...Just checked your Archives re: 18th March worth keeping in mind.

Westpac say balance of risks continues to point to lower AUD/JPY, with announcements of new AUD uridashi continuing to decline sharply; A$2.3 billion of uridashi deals unveiled in February, so far only A$311 million in March. Strength of Japanese shares (Nikkei 225 up further 0.4% today) means uridashi less attractive. Also, spread between Australian, Japanese yields noarrowest since last October, Westpac says. Adds, signs Japanese investors selling bonds ahead of fiscal year end. AUD/JPY Y79.80, up from earlier near 3-month low of Y79.55.
AP.

ICT ML 06:58 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
it appears on my 4 hr chart that I might not get my cable short filled at 183.10 now....was hoping for a spike up there before any down ....

melbourne farmacia 06:50 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ML - All Dollar pairs.

hk ab nzd .6 06:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, so you are say we should buy the break right? Is it correct? TIA!

ICT ML 06:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia...today euro and not gbp cycle day?

melbourne farmacia 06:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
yeah ab - expecting the euro range to break today, either 1.2454 or 1.1960, place your bets.... what ever happens today should follow on for a while..

hk ab nzd .6 06:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
truly get it.

shanghai bc 05:52 GMT March 18, 2004

THANKS.

Melbourne Qindex 06:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:39 GMT March 18, 2004
USD/JPY : weekly Cycle Quantised Levels


... 106.57 // 107.03 - 107.49 - 107.94 - 108.39 - 108.85 // 109.31 ....


The mid-point reference of 106.57 - 107.03 is 106.80.

melbourne farmacia 06:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sa - cheers

hk ab nzd .6 06:38 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, I almost totally forgot that today is your fib day March 18

Melbourne Qindex 06:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

nyc sa 06:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
thnx farmacia anyway for ur invaluable contributions to the board , I wish u appear more frequently ,it is comforting to know u r around .

melbourne farmacia 06:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa - sorry mate, not following yenny. gt

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I hope my view for several days ago and until today can help you.
Tell your friends..to see here . still can not send via e-mail.
still bussy..
CU..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/CHF(when at 1.2722)
· Seen price will get so big selling emotion if we see 4 hours candle.
· Target level 1.2591 is still valid to be hoped with assumtion move from high 1.3073.and price have given message to get 1.2551.Be carefull if show 1.3088 that’s mean as indication that price will test high at 1.3329 as the extreme top. If price show you 1.2530 that’s mean will get 1.2436-13 as extreme bottom. We still can not yet talking bearish situation for long term to get below 1.2136 although price show you 1.2418.
· Objective level is at 1.2552 still valid to be hoped. Be carefull with this level because can make buying emotion.
· Objective level that can be hoped for today is 1.2630 or 1.2591. be carefull with that level because can bring price move up emotion. The selling pressure will be so big if show you 1.2400 to get 1.2040.
· Good level for selling placement order is at 1.2850/60 (yesterday view and have nice done) - 1.2802 – 1.2887- 1.2954/68 or 1.3015
· Good level for buying is at 1.2667/61 - 1.2506 -1.2551- 1.2597 - 1.2551 or 1.2436-13 – 1.2276

USD/JPY(when at 107.00)
· Level 109.58 be get, there is high possibility to get next level at 108.73-51. This movement able to carry to get spiral movement until 105.39 as bottom price.
· Price is on the selling emotion as the reaction from 111.42. If price show you 112.45 that’s mean price will up to get nearest target at 113.44. This level give you chance for move down so far, but if show you 113.60 that’s mean price still will up to get 114.99. This level is very potential as the top.Confirmation to get 117.94 if show you 115.20.
· Good levels for buying is at 106.75(yesterday view and have done) – 106.48 – 106.16
· Good selling level is at 112.78
best regards,
raden mas

shanghai bc 05:52 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   

AB,NT -- The phone lines between US Treasury and MoF were very busy last week and we see these moves this week..Japan never had an independent foreign policy since 1945 and forex policy is a part of foreign policy too..In one word,weaker Dollar is good for Bush team till election..But BoJ at least warned the market to behave because BoJ has the ability and determination to move the market as and when they like it..Better not trade Yen for a while unless you are privy to BoJ folks in some capacity..Good luck..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD(when at 1.2283)
· Level 1.2054 is the key level and have been broken that’s mean price will get next resistant at 1.1952 as minor resistant to make swing only to get 1.2290 or 1.2624 as maximal swing. But confirmation to get 1.1952 is if price show you 1.2156. If price show you 1.1940 that’s mean price will down to get 1.1828 as the bottom for longterm bullish continuation to get 1.3020. But if price show you 1.1800 that’s mean price will get 1.1760-26. Be carefull with this area because can make buying emotion to get minimal 1.2387.
· Until now for long term trade, confirmation bullish signal still not yet be get although give chance to get 1.2544. Too early now if we talking about 1.3020
· For daily trade price still have chance to get minimal 1.2353 (have made buying emotion to go there) and ideal at 1.2480-86 .
· Good level for selling order placement is at 1.2290 (minimal swing level) - 1.2334 - 1.2384/89 - 1.2423 –1.2480/86 – 1.2544.
· Good level for buying is at 1.2232 - 1.2254 – 1.2185 - 1.2139 – 29 (for swing only).
· Price have get 1.2195-82 and give you chance as extreme bottom swing to move up for trend to get 1.2882. But although price move until 1.2668 that’s mean up trend still not yet get clear signal. Until now long term target at 1.2889 is still valid to hope with assumtion price move from low 1.2054.
my best regards,
raden mas

NZ Bomber 05:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I am still long the GBP it will go up!!

brisbane L 05:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
INTERVIEW/Australian Finance Minister Nick Minchin Thursday : Australian Budget Surplus Might Not Be Hefty

hk ab nzd .6 05:47 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// sigh.. guns are there soon. No way for this sign to be wrong again... hahaha

I will not post up the dlr/jpy trade but send you email.

NZ Bomber 05:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I think that the JPY is making a comeback.............there could be 40 - 60 pips in the next few hrs..........feedback please !!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Technical Analysis
18 March 2004

GBP/USD (when at 1.8260)
· Seen chart gbp/usd have get bottom at 1.7904 to get key level 1.8410-1.8442 for get confirmation about 1.8837. If price move above 1.8442 and close today candle at above 1.8442 that’s mean chart get confiormation about 1.8837. Seen chart have forgot about chance bottom for today candle at 1.8057 because not ideal bullish pattern if go there and if show you today below 1.8057 that’s not good for your buy position but still not fair if thinking for sell because that’s only warning. If p[rice will move on oscilation type, price must be get only top at 1.8410 with climax buying is at 1.8442 (only for today and different scenario for tomorrow). If today price get climax buying at 1.8442 and close below 1.8410 that’s mean price will move for oscilation until 1.8248 and ideal to move higher to break 1.8442 to get 1.8565. If today price can not touch 1.8406/10 that’s mean tomorrow price give chance to get higher than 1.8406 (is at 1.8469) to get bullish confirmation for long term. If like this price will get the acceleration to move up for several day (maybe on the way to get 1.9500 ). If possible climax selling for today only at 1.8057 (not 1.7950 again).
· But if price show you 1.7725 chart will get the key answer to get bearish situation and if like this we can hope to get 1.7413 or 1.7347. Hope not thinking buy again if price show you like this, but be carefull when price at 1.7413 or 1.7347 because buying order placement there too.
· Good level for selling is at 1.8260/74 – 1.8374 /81- 1.8410- 1.8442 – 1.8565 – 1.8616 – 1.8680 – 1.8837
· Good level for buying is at 1.8153/80 - 1.8057 – 1.7950/44 – 1.7825 – 1.7768/47 – 1.7413 – 1.7347

best regards,
raden mas

Melbourne Qindex 05:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

hong kong nt 05:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- BOJ fishing stop below 107 line ?

hong kong nt 05:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia bahari2003 -- covered all short this morning at 12855, look to sell again at 12950, expect wave A5 to reach 12200-12300, exit if above critical res 12995/13030...

LAX-LGB SNP 05:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
big moves in Asia ... doubt if Europe follows through ;-)
l8erz

nyc sa 05:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hey Farmacia is this a buying level for $/yen ? oversold ? do u have levels? could u run it please ? thnx .

Indonesia bahari2003 05:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
oops..my stop loss usdjpy 107.03 done :(
hong kong nt-Thankyou for your valuable view of hsi.

hong kong nt 05:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- see if eurjpy 131.0 may lend some support to usd/jpy...

hong kong nt 05:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
bc -- BOJ is very smart, let not yen reach 112.50-113.50 technical sell levels and turn the boat south...

melbourne farmacia 05:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Come on guy's , it's just BOJ cashing in from their 105 defence buying for round 2 at 106. LOL

ICT ML 05:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
coming up fast on gbp-usd down trend line for this swing...I have it and a 4 hr ema 200 resistance at 1.8310-15 now...think i'll sell into it with a damnnn tight stop.

MTL Cain 05:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Ouch....

First time and last time with $/yen....

Sayonara...BOJ

hong kong nt 05:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- my wife reminds me the head and shoulder top obj for usd/jpy on weekly chart...

ICT ML 05:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 04:42 GMT March 18, 2004
ab No position.

Cannot understand BOJ. Best to sit back and wait.


Neither can I make sense of this sudden allowance of freefall....unless they are setting a big trap for next week...? WTF knows!

hk ab nzd .6 05:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ML// maybe if we go short, better to wait for some brave hearts to be burnt by the gun and we catch the falling coconut?

hong kong nt 05:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab -- exit usd/jpy at 88...

prauge viktor 05:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab there is 2 things for the BOJ : first they are under high pressur from the usa or there is a large investment out side of Japan .how do u see the nzd pleas.

UK GF 05:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY Below 107, Still No BoJ, Slide To 105.15-20 Eyed

ICT ML 05:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
damnnn 107 gone and no BOJ...interesting........selling gbp-jpy from here requires a stop above 197.50 still I think.....but that could move down real soon...

hk ab nzd .6 05:04 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
maybe a new rule is try not to post dlr/jpy entry ;)

hk ab nzd .6 05:02 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
bc// what's your view on the guard of 105 line by BOJ?

hk ab nzd .6 05:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
v. interesting movement on dlr/jpy.

hk ab nzd .6 04:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
SAR at 83.

hk ab nzd .6 04:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Cain// similar s/l placed as yours.

MTL Cain 04:45 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
HK ab, r u still in long $/yen? what's ur view on next support of $/yen? 106.85... or the legendary 105? that will drag a long way... imvho
TIA

G/L&G/T

NYC YIPPEE 04:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ab No position.

Cannot understand BOJ. Best to sit back and wait.

USDJPY could see 100 before April 15.

hk ab nzd .6 04:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Today special: sell eur @100 sma 1.2309 and let the eur/jpy brings it to where it is supposed to.

hk ab nzd .6 04:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 04:30 GMT March 18, 2004


Are you ready on the way down then ;)

I lost some appetite on this pair. Luck is "0" with this pair. :)

hk ab nzd .6 04:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
nt// pull out the aud/nzd daily chart and you will see a similar kind of movement made on this pair with the dlr/jpy present situation.

I think price will rocket up soon indeed. Just provided that the 105 line is not broken.

hk ab nzd .6 04:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
the nzd didn't fill my .6550 order ......

planning how to add to new dlrcad trades.

hong kong nt 04:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Kamensk Andy -- only dare small long at 107.2...

NYC YIPPEE 04:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
NYC YIPPEE 01:23 GMT October 8, 2003
75.65 AUDJPY grab 'em and hold on for another long ride.. 82.10 is possible, if you can place a stop below 74.35 would be the best place for now. Good luck all.

ab looking at the charts it is possible that the above scenario which worked on the way up, may indeed be possible on the way down.

Good trades to you.

hk ab nzd .6 04:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
can my loyal eur/gbp still work well for the direction on eur?..
price moved to the anticipated daily sma 20.

or 04:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
While everyone was standing around talking about filling in gaps on the upside it looks like the BOJ quietly slipped out the back door.

hk ab nzd .6 04:27 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Can I see the 5 fig. move on aud/jpy ..... hm....

hk ab nzd .6 04:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Maybe a 2 weeks option? on dlrjpy?

SA getFX 04:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Pivot calcs:
17-Mar-04
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.2410 1.8331 R5
1.2350 1.8257 R4
1.2322 1.8235 R3
1.2294 1.8213 R2
1.2264 1.8176 R1
1.2234 1.8139 P
1.2206 1.8117 S1
1.2178 1.8095 S2
1.2148 1.8058 S3
1.2118 1.8021 S4
1.2062 1.7977 S5

Cable T/L from 18 Feb is presently at about 1.8300...

hk ab nzd .6 04:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Basically, if you some small blips in mins chart, chance is that a tight s/t and wait for the gun is the best play.

I put a trail limit entry on dlr/jpy @107.50. Just in case of fire.

Wonderland Alice 04:23 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I know NZ, that's when I went long. Do you think I should have posted the trade idea when I was getting into it or after I took profit. Which do you think would have been beneficial to people and which to you think would have been absolutley useless information?

NZ 04:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hey....it does to me as a novice !!!

NZ 04:21 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
the EUR hasnt been at .88 since 2002 !!

NYC YIPPEE 04:20 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
NZ

89 pips does not equal a killing dear chap.

Wonderland Alice 04:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Hi I have never posted on this forum before but just made a killing in the EUR. Went long @ .8800 and just took profit at 1.2270 for 3470 pips. Sorry for the harry hindsight notice but as long as I am making money who cares.

NZ 04:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone else out there trading in New Zealand?

NZ 04:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
oops thats + 89 pips

NZ 04:11 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Sold the JPY earlier @ 108.22 made a killing in les than 3 hrs to 107.27 - 89 pips

NZ 04:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Just gone long the GBP @ 1.8263 keeping fingers crossed

Brisbane L 04:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Australian RBA Sold A$1.45B In Forex Mkt In Feb

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hyderabad rakesh 03:39 GMT March 18, 2004
I am sorry..
too many job.
about gold.. I have informed you before when below 390.
have a nice.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
ML I would not be surprised if eur/usd goes down in London time because that has been the normal lately but overall I see a bullish pattern forming for eur/usd with the intraday indicators pointing up. The bears tested the bottom of the pennant yesterday it is the bulls turn to test the upper and we shall see who wins this one.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
be carefull !!
gbp/usd is on the area 1.8260-74
maybe move down from there to make swing (not for trend)
strategy : buy when move down on swing. 1.8406 is ideal to hope.

hyderabad rakesh 03:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
RADEN_MASANDI....
very good morning wats ur opinion on gold and euro and not seeing u online on yahoo messenger ya..msg bk.RAKESH

la gold 03:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The lowest of the low, that any goverment(people) can go,
Is cave in to terrorism. Terrorism should be faught against,
until it is destroyed. There is no other alternative. You can't
Negotiate with the devil.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!

shanghai bc 03:32 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   

Watch out for the possible change of Japan's forex stance in coming weeks because that may send Dollar down the road some 1000 pips or more again..It was mainly their stance after Dubai G-7 which sent Dollar down for several months and it was mainly their stance again in Jan,which lifted Dollar some 100 pips from the cliff..Several hundreds billions in the market can do wonders sometimes..Gold market will tell Japan's intentions soon enough though..In forex safari park,size matters..Fwiw..

sar jf 03:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
my impression whole day rests with gbpyen at 195.20-30

MTL Cain 03:28 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Something that cannot be helped is the [AUD/JPY] for Japanese private investors who have been devotedly following security houses" Uridashi instructions. As mentioned yesterday, the cross fell thru the lower side of the parameter at 80.50, and inability to rebound thru the level in the short term and further fall thru 80.00 are the sign of Sayonara. Loss of the Feb 02 low that could have become part of the possible neckline is also a negative sign. Dec 26 low at 79.30 is the next clear point to watch.

Signal on yen mixed, can't see future clearly, Give me the crytal orb. :)

G/L & G/T

Kamensk Andy 03:24 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt - do you still long dollaryen? GT

hong kong nt 03:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
AB -- we are now in exactly the same location in Osaka...

ICT ML 03:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Hey OMIL........I have this feeling that euro is heading lower in the London hours........can't really explain it......just see something in hourly MACD trend.........could be way off base too....lets be careful out there today......

And after the past 8 trading days....me more than anyone needs to follow my advice this time...LOL......

Indonesia bahari2003 03:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
morning all, what a beginning day for usd/jpy. I would like to long usd/jpy at 107.10 for target 107.60 stop 107.03

anyone like to share my view? tx

Indonesia bahari2003 03:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
morning all, what a beginning day for usd/jpy. I would like to long usd/jpy at 107.10 for target 107.60 stop 107.03

anyone like to share my view? tx

MTL Cain 02:55 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
HK AB,

May I share your view on $/yen in short-term? One of my signals came and indicates $ is going to fall again. Confused...
TIA

G/L & G/T

Porto PJT 02:48 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
San Francisco JE 02:17 , you prefer to see death penalty and gay marriages , right?

MTL Cain 02:43 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Long usd/jpy @117.21. stop 116.94, wait to see.

G/L & G/T

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:41 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
No need to pick on a country that has elected to be democratic. Not everybody has to agree with the US to be good. In democracy one must accept other decisions or we are not democratic just dictatorship. Eur/usd has reached the second fib retracement line at this time with more room to go further but 1.2295-2300 area should be a tough nut to crack IMHO. GL GT

hk ab nzd .6 02:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
long one more at 107.20. that's it.

hk ab nzd .6 02:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
sp// my suggestion is, right opp. to many thought, a big gun will be seen soon, but it's better exit after the fire.

hk ab nzd .6 02:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp trying daily sma 20...

sgp sp 02:35 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab, good thing u closed ur dlr/yen longs......hmmm...the aud/yen is really resillient.....hardly moved from yesterday's level.

hk ab nzd .6 02:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
I entered half long dlr/jpy here 107.22.

good plan for dlr/jpy long game now if 105 is not broken.

MTL Cain 02:33 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Close euro long @ 1.2267, +40 pips. Will wait 4 the break of 1.2285.

Thx Rafe for your resistance/support info. It seemed we are going back to Jan. now.

Eilat Dolphin 02:30 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
JE/ It's not false fannies the toreadors wear, but femoral artery (life) protection. Need more? Those guys just practice on the bulls, because in a couple of years they'll have AQ guys to sword with. Then I'll be watching...

hk ab nzd .6 02:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
can't believe the screen on dlr/jpy ;)

If u remember nicely, March 2002 is memorable.

Gen dk 02:26 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

San Francisco JE 02:17 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
What would you expect from a country (Spain) which kills animals for public spector with men wearing glittery tights with false fannies?

Brisbane L 02:06 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Master Builders Australia says while 4Q housing starts rose 8.1% on-quarter, this reflects surge of approvals in September, October; since then, housing approvals have fallen by around 12% on monthly basis. Adds housing finance has also eased in response to November, December rate hikes. As result, dwelling commencements will start to slow in 1Q04 and decline further in 2Q as higher interest rates bite harder----rts

Melbourne Qindex 02:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:01 GMT March 14, 2004
GBP/JPY : Is the market aiming at 192.34?

My 22-day & 44-day cycle reference (4/3) indicates that a projected resistant level has been established at 201.14 - 201.64. The odds are good that the market can go all the way down to 192.34. Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 196.95.


... 177.45 ... // 192.34* - 194.20 - 196.06* - 197.92 - 199.78* - 201.64 // 203.50* ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:22 GMT March 18, 2004
USD/JPY : weekly Cycle Quantised Levels


... // 107.03 - 107.49 - 107.94 - 108.39 - 108.85 // 109.31 ....

Melbourne Qindex 01:53 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range from my monthly cycle is 130.11 - 131.71 - 133.31. After expanding the range :-

... // 130.11* - 130.91 - 131.71* - 132.51 - 133.31* // ...

Brisbane L 01:49 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Australia's Westpac downgrades forecast for peak in RBA cash rate from 5.75% to 5.25% based on weaker-than-expected January housing data. Westpac economist Andrew Hanlan says recent RBA rate hikes have had bigger impact than anticipated

HK [email protected] 01:46 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 01:37 GMT March 18, 2004

Al-Qaeda are dangerously talented people and have good timing......to deepen the differences between Spain and the U.S.

U.S., Spanish officials trade barbs over Iraq war, terrorism fight

By Pauline Jelinek
ASSOCIATED PRESS
2:03 p.m. March 17, 2004

WASHINGTON – U.S. and Spanish officials traded barbs Wednesday, rekindling a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the invasion of Iraq and the best way to fight terrorism.

Top Republicans accused the Spaniards of appeasing terrorist groups by turning out of office the party of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, a close U.S. ally. Spain's prime minister-elect, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, in turn, said the Iraq occupation "is turning into a fiasco."

Zapatero has made clear he prefers Democratic challenger John Kerry over President Bush in the White House. He said Wednesday he will stick by his decision to pull 1,300 Spanish troops out of Iraq unless the United Nations takes control of peacekeeping.

House Speaker Rep. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., said Spain was "a nation who succumbed ... to threats of terrorism, changed their government."

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:42 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2253 1.2267 1.2285 1.2300 1.2314 1.2332 1.2361
LOWER BANDS 1.2224 1.2210 1.2192 1.2177 1.2163 1.2145 1.2116

usa tom 01:39 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
think usd/jpy will rebound now

Eilat Dolphin 01:37 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
RF/ Loud&Clear. What took them so long to fax this ? Respect for mourning period ?

Eilat Dolphin 01:36 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
RF/ Loud&Clear. What took them so long to fax this ? Respect for mourning period ?

Melbourne Qindex 01:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:39 GMT March 17, 2004
EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Quantised Levels


... 1.2027 ... 1.2088 ... 1.2149 // 1.2180 - 1.2210 - (1.2241) - 1.2271 - 1.2333 // 1.2363 ... 1.2455 ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:34 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:11 GMT March 18, 2004
EUR/USD : 44-Day Cycle Quantised Levels (17/3)


... // 1.1694* - 1.1856 - 1.2018 - 1.2180 - 1.2261 - 1.2342* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 00:41 GMT March 18, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Quantised Levels (17/03)


Set B : 1.1947* - 1.2024 - 1.2100* - 1.2177 - 1.2253* // ...

Melbourne Qindex 01:31 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 1.2240.

HK [email protected] 01:29 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
With the permission and courtesy of Al-qaeda you may buy Euro!!!

'Al-Qaida call' to halt attacks on Spain


Thursday 18 March 2004, 2:51 Makka Time, 23:51 GMT


The train bombings in Madrid last week killed 201 people

A statement attributed to al-Qaida has called for a halt to attacks on civilians in Spain until the new Madrid government outlines its policy towards the Muslim world.


"We have let the Spanish people choose between war and peace," said the statement received by the London-based newspaper Al-Qods Al-Arabi.

"They chose peace by electing the party which opposed the alliance with America in its war against Islam," said the text signed by Abu-Hafs Al-Masri/al-Qaida Brigades.

The authenticity of the statement, which followed last week's train bombings in Madrid that killed 201 people and were claimed by the same group, could not be confirmed.

"That's why the leadership has decided to halt all operations on Spanish territory against civilian targets until we know the direction taken by the new government which has promised to withdraw the Spanish army from Iraq, and that we are sure of the government's non-interference in Muslim affairs," it said.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Today is the day to see a clearer picture for the dollar move. I have a buy signal for eur/usd around 1.2275-85 area for 40-80 pips looking to test 1.2370 again today. It is early for that move so first will have to deal with 250ma on 1hr chart acting as resistance right now IMHO. GL GT

Ldn 01:25 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Once the support at 1.2180 breaks this will signal that it is headed lower into the week of April 5 and will fall to the 1.1900 area, and could possibly fall as low as 1.1600

above view from fx concepts.

Dublin CK 01:15 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:07 GMT March 17, 2004
EUR/USD : 22-Day Cycle Quantised Levels (17/03)


Set A : ... //1.2081* - 1.2121 - 1.2161 - 1.2200 - 1.2240 // ...

Then man and his team are not often wrong and the euro is already above the highest level of Set A.

From reading Dr Q analysis preciously i would take heed to his advice.

HK [email protected] 01:14 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Smooth to 416.60 gold

HK [email protected] 01:13 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Watcha da gold!!!

melbourne farmacia 01:12 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Odds suggest we sell the dollar today fwiw...

MTL Cain 01:08 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
[MOF MIZOGUCHI] repeats Japan"s fx stance remains unchanged, the MoF will take action according to situations. Asked about the resurgent JPY, Mizogu Mizoguchi says he will not comment when there is speculation in the market.

Green back may fall a bit, imvho.

G/L & G/T

Eilat Dolphin 01:01 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
L/ Looks like we just had an inversion at 00:00 GMT...

Brisbane L 00:59 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
MARKET TALK: EUR/USD May Try 1.22 If Terror Weighs

Brisbane L 00:56 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Real money and leveraged accounts appear to be sellers of Aussie today with macro, overlay managers buying, say CSFB strategists. Sellers still unwinding longs Could see more weakness on any selling of EUR as market weighs up what ECB to do on rates.

Eilat Dolphin 00:54 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Useull info, Pilot, thanks.

Singapore Pilot 00:51 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
The market is clearly back in bearish usd/jpy mood. Heard massive buying by Japan & other Specs of 3/6 mth $ puts. Strikes ranging from 102 to 105. While the market is in this bearish usd/yen mood, it would be foolish for the BoJ to intervene aggressively. To do so would only give Specs better levels to enter the trade. To catch Specs out, BOJ will prob wait until the short $ trade is on before launching an attack..

Singapore Pilot 00:40 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
more gbp stops lined up from 1.8230 to 1.8250... smart money buying since yesterday at 1.8120

MTL Cain 00:19 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
Evening, pals.

Seemed Eur got some supports now

Long euro @ 1.2227, stop @1.2196.

G/L & G/T

Dublin CK 00:09 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc,

Thanks, I read before that there was alot of speculative cash from banks awaiting to long cable at 1.70.

I agree with you that in the near term it could drift into the 1.75-80 region.Things are a bit confusing though, with alot of geo-political events occuring.

My feeling was that it was going to occur near the end of the Jpnese year end and the easing of intervention.

But I believe the yen has fallen too fast too soon.

I having a feeling in my waters that 1.18/19 Eur/USD will occur first. All depending if rates are cut.

Saihat 00:07 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
for demo

Saihat 00:05 GMT March 18, 2004 Reply   
eur

buy........stop 1.2212

 




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