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Forex Forum Archive for 03/25/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MMM I suggested it but I never took it, I am going to take one SOON though. A short of course.

ICT ML 23:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:48...very nice call on the euro bottom yesterday BC...I had some flow info saying the same thing but not allowed to go announcing it the the world :->

ICT ML 23:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
amc....No opinion on the usd-jpy...I find that pair a complete waste of times and margin $$$$. I have taken one trade on it in a year and a half. I like gbp-jpy much better( but YOU need to avoid that one like the plague until you get the feel for how this market acts).

gbp-usd...well you were given a gift bounce. We usually only get one second chance on a bad trade and you had yours earlier I think. But, being sharky Friday anything is possible. I will say that my down swing has not even reached the bottom in my 4 hr studies, and the study usually bounce around along the bottom as the swing heads to lower levels yet.

I think I will try to short again around 1.8100 closer to London session

Gold Coast martin 23:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
SORRY DELETE THE WORD 'between"...

Calabash TarHeel 23:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Washington MMM 23:40 GMT March 25, 2004
calabash ...dont mind me asking i have an order to sell aussie @ 7410 it hasn't been filled yet i sold @ 06
and i dont see bid of 10......do mind telling me which bank quoted 10

MMM, I don't really know. I use Oxxxx for my trading platform.

GL, GT

Gold Coast martin 23:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas....todays high for aud will be between 7415 and lowest 7325 after end of european session....

shanghai bc 23:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

We may know if the market wants to continue this week's ride or snap back on taking profits when European session starts..Asian session may be another "all quiet on Asian Front"..

Washington MMM 23:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP still holding short Aussie ?

Dallas GEP 23:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I could see Euro in the 1.2180 area sometime today AS WELL as 1.2070.

Dallas GEP 23:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MArtin, what do you see as potential HIGH for today on Aussie my friend???

pj amc 23:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
No i am still long both gbp/usd and usd/jpy. I will definetly sell on the next spike above 1.81. What are you thinking on both of these positions

Gold Coast martin 23:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good morning all/.....my position on the aud and nzd is as follows:aud and nzd still showing down ward bias to 7150 and 62 respectively...the previously posted time frame by end of ny session however is not clear as i am iclined to extend it to by the end of ny trading tuesday.....next cycle indicates aud down to 69 and nzd down to 60 by end of ny session friday week...that is my position....g/l g/t

Washington MMM 23:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
calabash ...dont mind me asking i have an order to sell aussie @ 7410 it hasn't been filled yet i sold @ 06
and i dont see bid of 10......do mind telling me which bank quoted 10

thanks

ICT ML 23:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc....mate, what did you do about your long gbp-usd position from last night? Hope you managed to B/E or close to it on the bounce.

Calabash TarHeel 23:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Aud/$ .7410 s/l .7460 Target open.
Probably should have waited on .7418 with Ab.

Gl, GT.

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
readjust to .7418

Gold Coast martin 23:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HK..ab....i am in the middle of completing the next cycle for the usd and nzd.....the down ward bias for both currencies is till evident..i just want to confirm once again the time frame of end of ny york trading as well as timeframe of the oncoming cycle.....i will confirm them again and post very shortly....you are right....74 to 7150 big profit when you get there and close position.......

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
may be place an entry at .7420

pj amc 23:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Will we see 107 before 105 on usd/jpy........also will we see 183 before 179 on cable? i am stuck

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
martin, .7404 to .7150 is still big profit ;)

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
dlr/jpy 4hr is slowing down now....waiting to see daily chart to turn.

for today, will place a s/l under 106 line.

sydney fg 22:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
just need to see 50 offered in eur/jpy and we'll all be happy

Eilat Dolphin 22:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Victor/ I'd venture we'll have a calm night. Since both sides were tried today and ended with a draw... there won't be many risk takers left.

hk ab nzd 0.6 22:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hope that the eur/jpy can meet my 127.55 today....

prague viktor 22:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin: do u mean that the range well be 1,21 to 1,216 thanks

Dallas GEP 22:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin, those JPY crosses break down hard, it won't take long IMO but you could be right regarding FIGURE holding at least for now.

hk ab nzd 0.6 22:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP, as long as the people are rushing for Jap asset, the eur will still be pressed.

I think the wind is really selling eur, but doesn't necessarily means buying usd.....

I found my trend will be right if I found my overnight position in green when I wake up.

Friday again GT and GL.

Dallas GEP 22:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY shorts are pulling GBP/USD down as well. In Asia, it is usually the JPY crosses that have the most movement/effect on the other pairs.

Eilat Dolphin 22:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ I don't see the E sinking below the figure during Asia! Possibly after IFO...

Dallas GEP 22:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Watch for this Euro to break below 1.21 Eur/Yen shorting is pulling on it.

Dallas GEP 22:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I use the charts from that second company down listed to the left of this screen. I suppose they are an advertiser on this site.

Eilat Dolphin 22:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ahmed/ My pleasure! MACD as usual 26/12/9 for dailies. Works with 8 H and 4 h too, but then they are a bit outstretched, lagging on the two latter time frames, while the stochs are not.

Simple M.A do the same trick even better. Figure 4 over 10 or so. The advantage is than on long stretches of time the M.A. are not compressed on the floor or ceiling.
And then you have the SAR too. quite visual.

None is perfect or failsafe, alone or even together.

Happy trading. Take your time!

pj amc 22:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gep.......what site do you use your charts from

Dammam Ahmad 22:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP Thank you very much ;I appreciate it.

pj amc 22:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
dallas...........you really are considerate to help us rookies and we do appreciate it. what website or chart systems do you use for currencies.

Dammam Ahmad 22:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dear Eilat Dolphin
Thank you very much for your answer.
What about the components of MACD,EMA's & RSI?
The longer time frams even for daily trades?

Thank you

Dallas GEP 22:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ahmad,

I use STOCHS (standard settings), Bollinger Bands, MACD all on 30 minute timeframes, PLUS I am aware of FIBS amd Moving Averages (9 and 18 period generally).

Eilat Dolphin 22:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ahmad/ add stochs on 14/4/4 or about, but not below (faster).

The longer the time frames, the better.

prague viktor 22:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep thanks alot..

Dammam Ahmad 22:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dear Dallas GEP
Do you have time to read my privous post?

Dallas GEP 22:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AMC, USD/JPY should see 160.40/50 at least for tonight. I think while pound might short in ASia, it will probably long back in London. Euro is HEAVY and once 1.2120 breaks then 1.2080 area will be seen IMO.

Dallas GEP 22:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I am home now ML. Viktor, I see pound in the 1.8000-1.8010 range in Asia.

Dammam Ahmad 22:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hello people
I'm planning to start the FOREX business but confused about the time frames if my trades will be intraday trades.Is it enough to use only these indicators: MACD,RSI,EMA?what should be the components of those idicators?
I appriciate your cooporations.
Thank you and best wishes

ICT ML 22:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP...where were you tin Ldn time?...we had a gbp shark fest...
You be home in a few hours?

prague viktor 22:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep:how do u see the GBP/USD thanks ..

UK 22:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NAB strategists AUD slipped overnight and bias is now toward 7340 area and potentially down to range low of 7250

pj amc 22:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gep----------right now i am long usd/jpy and gbp/usd. i am down 100 pips in gbp and down 45 pips on the jpy. i know i make my own decisions but am curious as to what you or anyone else would do with them.....thanks alot

Dallas GEP 22:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AMC. I can carry VERY large stops but from a risk management standpoint 30-40 pips would be kind of the standard for me. This howver is NOT enough for ccy's like gbp/jpy or gbp/usd.

GVI john 22:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2130…$/yen 106.15
DJIA 10,219, +171 pts…NASDAQ 1,967, +58 pts
10-yr 3.74%, +3 bp’s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:

For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
Full Text on GVI

pj amc 21:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gep...............how do you implement stop losses in your trading. how many pips do you use

Dallas GEP 21:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Correction 1,3314 target on USD.CAD longs

ithaca sjm 21:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Apologies. Should read "better to long Cad against Euro"

ithaca sjm 21:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I normally just trade $/Cad & have been long, waiting for the move to 1.40+, but have put on short Euro/Cad today at 1.6193. Current stop at +2tick, so freebie from here. Think Euro/$ headed to 1.1350/1.1400 in time, so move up to 1.4000 may be on the cards for $/Goose, but better to long CAD against the $ from here. The theory is great, but the proof is in the pudding I guess. Good fortune, good trades. Time to sharpen the pencil. For those of you who know upstate NY, the Canadian Gooses are actually "flying North", but it just means that winter is now officially on hold until May!

Dallas GEP 21:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Long now on USD/CAD from 1.3294...Short on Euro from 1.2128. Target 1.3320 for CAD and 1.2077 for Euro

LAX-LGB SNP 21:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy's daily formation implies that price action will be strong either way, tommorrow being fireworks Friday and all that ...

expecting eurjpy to send eurusd lower
also usdcad has stayed supported by daily 50 sma and might finally break past 1.341x

GL TC y'all

UK 21:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AUD Japanese Selling Weighs

Melbourne Qindex 21:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:46 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 21:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
about usd/jpy next week I think will up after get 104.27 and eur/usd wil down.


friends... sorry.. I need go sleep 90 minutes now.
CU..
contact Dallas GEP to help you. I was talking more him since several hours ago until now.

Hampton JPC 21:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone used censored to trade the forex?

SD tht 21:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ithaca sjm - Agree on EUR/CAD, long term TL coming in around 1.54. I have been trading the short side for a while waiting for a b/o.

pj amc 21:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden--------what is your opinion on gbp/usd and usd/jpy over the next week.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 20:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
bell is ringing

UK 20:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Aussie bearish bias persists and traders
note that AUD Uridashi demand has dropped to the lowest levels since November as
the high yields lose their appeal as the currencies slide. ifr

prague viktor 20:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Van jv:thanks I hope I wrote it right now G/L

ithaca sjm 20:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
euro/cad 1.5300 area eventually, if H&S is completely broken. No time frame for move. (normally quite rapod tho.)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 20:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd seen ready down from here 8075 and seen wait eur/usd touch 263.
you can sell

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 20:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 19:41 GMT March 25, 2004
oh. no I still no web/page.
about system Iuse wide ranging bar theory and candle formation. I use convensional indiactor too like RSI or moving

nyc tony 20:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ithaca/ sjm

Very curious situation going on now. This is the first divergence between the two currencies vs the $$$ and the cross is really moving consequently. I will add to my longstanding position around 1.3180 fwiw. just out of curiousity how low do see the cad flying?

uK 20:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
)--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Thursday the central bank must remain vigilant that short term interest rates don't remain low for too long.

Speaking at press conference at LeMoyne-Owen college in Memphis, Poole also said the risk of inflation rising was slightly higher than the risk of it falling, a shift from the most recent statement from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which said those risks were "almost equal." "We do have to watch the data carefully and make sure that policy does not remain accommodative beyond its time," said Poole, currently a voter on the FOMC.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 20:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 19:46 GMT March 25, 2004
if you are still not yet go to sleep. you can sell gbp/usd or sell eur/usd

ithaca sjm 20:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Sell Euro/Cad here up to 1.6160 s/l 1.6190-1.6220 area depending on size & R/R ratio. Minimum target 1.6060 in the days ahead. Break of Head & Shoulders (daily) should see much, much more though.

Bandung Dewan 20:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:53 GMT March 25, 2004

Yes, we need it badly. Btw, about the magic number, maybe I can tell you the list for Gbp/Usd. I just type 4 digits. There are: 8055+8181-8080-8747 (boss+bibi-bobo-(di)bajaj), and many more...
Raden, what's your view for eur/usd for tommorow? I need to know that.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan
ha..ha..
we need laugh for a while.
high pressure in trade. LOl

Van jv 19:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
prauge viktor 17:51---agree with your numbers 1.15-1.27.......1.18 zone ..except your spelling of Prague/ GL

HKG SK 19:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

Could not get 1.8076 to square my position but I got 1.8077. Thanks. Go to bed now and will talk to you again tomorrow.

pj amc 19:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden..........nice call bro..........question for the forum. what chart systems do you guys use. any websites you guys like for charts

Bandung Dewan 19:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:27 GMT March 25, 2004

Average. Tommorow GBP/USD should climb to 82xx before scroll down to 1.7xxx. IMO. No 82xx, No Chart. No 82xx, Nodong Doraemnon. No Doraemon, No-bita.

HKG SK 19:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

What system do you use to get such a prediction. It really did not even need 20 mins to get to 1.8076. You amazed me.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 19:31 GMT March 25, 2004
no friends.. too danger for cut reverse
in maximal 20 minutes from now will be touched 8076

HKG SK 19:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

I meant long GBP at your recommended level 1.8076.

HKG SK 19:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

Shall we buy it back at 1.8076???

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 19:21 GMT March 25, 2004
good. I am happy. please exit at 1.8076

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 19:21 GMT March 25, 2004
good. I am happy. please exit at 1.8076

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan.
no money no ticket and no money no dong. LOL
no woman no cry..LOL
no margin no trade. LOL
By the way how is you gbp/usd short?

HKG SK 19:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

As a matter of fact I did short GBP at 1.8105 and thank you for your view. What is your level to take profit???

Bandung Dewan 19:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:57 GMT March 25, 2004
Hahaha, no, I'm not. This trade is better, has so many indicators. Togel? no resistance or support...
Will you "mudik" tomorrow evening?

pj amc 19:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
what do you guys think of usd/jpy here? any ideas which way to go

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 18:33 GMT March 25, 2004
hope not talking about "togel"/lotere.
this is trade, not need only lucky factor like togel
are you togel players ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 18:42 GMT March 25, 2004
hey friends.. I am sorry .
don't keep in your mind pls. just a joke.
I told you that's number I get from my resistant technique with convensional line.

Gen dk 18:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HKG SK 18:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

I really do not mean it in a bad way. Your view in this forum is always very much respected.

Bandung Dewan 18:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:28 GMT March 25, 2004
Your number could become the magic number when you can predict "togel". Even the vodooman cannot do that.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 17:56 GMT March 25, 2004
1.8109 is the my resistant for short term trade.. first warning

not.. not.. magic number.
analysis is logic. I am not with vodoo analysis. LOL :-)

sydney fg 18:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
euryen holding 5 min trendline support for now

Gen dk 18:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Manila Stubbs 18:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc... i think raden is referring to the 38.2% from the drop that started from 1.8378. although your i am also keeping an eye on the 38.2% retracement of the drop from 1.8545.

HKG SK 18:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
1.8109 seems to be the magic number.

KL KL 18:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I think pound have some more legs to 1.8150-70...as per GEP prediction...better to short there imho. Eur no doubt 1.22 is critical...my boggie man no doubt usdjpy....this can change scenerio in few seconds....will probably catch us when we least expect it!! at 1.12 we thought 1.15 now no one knows

pj amc 18:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden.......................the 38.2% retracement from the 2day drop from 1.854 is 1.82. Intraday resistance is 1.8240..........i hope i am right with sticking with my long

nyc sa 18:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
cable, I would say 1.82.90 a sell , maybe tonite .

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quick lunch break status I see the terror alert did the job. For eur/usd it has touched the first fib retracement with intent on drilling through this wall. Intraday indicators are still bullish for this pair we will see if it is able to reach the next fibo line with 1.2220-30 and 1.2265-75 as acting resistance right now later. GL GT

Quito Valdez 17:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks viktor. ;)

HKG SK 17:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
raden

Why 1.8109??? Any special indication about this level.

HKG SK 17:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I really cannot see the market going anywhere at the moment or tonight. No point in making any trade now until tomorrow.

prauge viktor 17:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez: Amigo try to make the trend ur friend
IMO the range is very wide from 1,15 to 1,27 with over shoot I think we must see 1,183 brfor anther euro run.its IMo

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
usd/cad
start sell at 1.3298
eur/usd start sell at 1.2174
gbp/usd in several minutes will down faster (difficult to stay above 1.8109.)

prauge viktor 17:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK : its depend on the IFO,if it will be low as everyone is expecting,so maybe we will have rate cut the next week !!!

Quito Valdez 17:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Yea HK, it seems that the market sort of did price that in but many still feel the euro is way over bought, even now...and some think the real value of the EUR is USD/1.08-1.12 or so. Really I don't know...conflicting views. If Euro goes up my wallet's fatter nonetheless.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd good level for sell at 1.8108
be carefull.
start

Quito Valdez 17:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
thanx viktor. True...no matter what he says it blows back in his face poor chap. One-world currency unbacked by prec. metals. bah humbug. Let's trade roasted chickens.

HKG SK 17:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
He is definetly talk about "room for rate cut" again. But the market had already priced in about this. So what ever he says will only move the market one way Euro up.

Quito Valdez 17:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
No one has any idea what Tricheywichey will say today? (Valdez asks his burro to listen too)

prauge viktor 17:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez:i think he will talk about volatility,and maybe about the rate cut,but for sure as we know him he will not talk about the level of the panifull euro,the mkt will fouces on the rate any word about it could take the euro high or down.G/LAmigo

EZ Rachacha 17:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
so it's your lucky day!

SA getFX 17:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
amc > You will see that volume often drops considerably - very much fewer traders. Price can get quite jittery.

Quito Valdez 17:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
LOL! I need a roasted chicken!

EZ Rachacha 17:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 17:26 GMT March 25, 2004
Certainly. He could also annouce a cut of the price on roasted chichens but it's just a rumour....

Quito Valdez 17:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EZ// Right! The man is a doddering geriatric.

Quito Valdez 17:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Usually when this happens:
1. it's meal time (beer:30)
2. the market is considered to be at a turning point
3. all of the above such as now.

EZ Rachacha 17:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 17:17 GMT March 25, 2004

Trichinette will say he increases the baril of 2 $! lol

SA getFX 17:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
amc > look back with your hourlies - it varies....but can be significant.

pj amc 17:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Is this timeframe usually quiet and if so when does it pick up?

Quito Valdez 17:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
So does anyone have an idea of what Trichette will say today at 4 EST?

Quito Valdez 17:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
LN// ask Jay for my email, when I get it from Warsaw I'll pass it to you...it may be copywrited material and Jay might not want it on the forum..dunno...we'll see what it looks like.

Quito Valdez 17:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw & Chicago..thanks! Will do.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hello friends !

warsaw mach 16:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Valdez, pls send me your e-mail adress on [email protected] and I will send more info. I have to leave now as we go for a beer. See you tommorow

Chicago Irish 16:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Valdez GoFish

warsaw mach 16:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Predicted Hi=B+(B-A)*1,618

B- High on second date
A- High on first date

Quito Valdez 16:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw..please do..use help forum, more space there

LN 16:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
warsaw mach 16:52 GMT. if you post it to the help forum i would also like to have a peak. cheers

warsaw mach 16:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sorry I have it in paper form. I can post a formula if you want

Quito Valdez 16:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Warsaw// Do you know if ther's an online source for Fisher formula data..such as knowing what it is and how to work it?

warsaw mach 16:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Pls check the Fisher formula for predicting Hi/Low for EUR/USD. I think it looks interesting. If you take two last highs on 09/03/04 and on 18/03/04 the next predicted low is on 23/03/04 and high on 01/04/04. In fact we had low today (so +2days) and according to this we should see high comming next week. Unfortunatelly this doesn't show levels so we can expect that the high will be above the low.

Pls. check historical data on eurusd. It often works.

So we can go higher before April.

Quito Valdez 16:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NYC sa// AND FORUM: what's the take on what Trichet's speach'll be/ & effect on fx??

pj amc 16:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc.........what makes you say that

nyc sa 16:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/yen ,remember Trichet speaks at 4:00 p.m new-york time.

pj amc 16:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
OH MYLANTA!!!

nyc sa 16:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I wouldn't be too quick on the cable bounce ,might see higher 1.83-1.84 maybe ?

Quito Valdez 16:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Livingston// LOL, man you pegged this eur/usd top off! The market changed right after you made that post to me. Don't want to start a sandstorm here but....I can't help but wonder if (A) you are really God and (B) if thousands out there listen to you and trades accordingly. Good call amigo.

sydney fg 16:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
us stocks up ... someone sell a google eurjpy pls. thx

QC WC 16:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, seem we've seen the bounce Farmacia was expecting in GBP before further drop.

sydney fg 16:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eurjpy holding this eur up.
get out of the way!

Dallas GEP 16:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
WEll it looks like we will have dollar bull retracements NOW. Go figure!!!! LOL

Gen dk 16:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Livingston nh 16:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
amc - back to today's lows (e.g., EUR sub 1.21)

Quito Valdez 16:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Livingston// thx amigo...LOL, checking my stuff. Your usual correctness is better than oogling my charts! W/this nitroglycerine mkt a shot up to 1.22 COULD!

Dallas GEP 16:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
WC, I think the best place to short it would be if it longs up to 1.8150/60 again(probably w/i 2 hours)

Dallas GEP 16:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
WC, I think the best place to short it would be if it longs up to 1.8150/60 again(probably w/i 2 hours)

nyc fxdh 16:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
still long $cdn hk

pj amc 16:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
livingston..............stupid question, when you say complete retracement where would that take us to

boulder dat 16:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
you'd be surprised how many veterans make that mistake. don't be so hard on yourself. just learn from it, and move on.

Livingston nh 16:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Valdez - EUR could do 1.22 in a heartbeat - i don't know where the top is but we 're probably close - a complete retracement is on my radar

pj amc 16:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
dat........thanks for your response...i just have a feeling we will see 1.82 on it soon.............stupid rookie mistake

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Time for bed..

hte eur/aud will hedge my eur short.

QC WC 16:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, now GBP below 1.8116, seem it run out of steam.

Gen dk 16:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Madrid CAB 16:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Rural economic issues
At New Approaches to Rural Policy: Lessons from Around the World, an international conference convened by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Rural Policy Research Institute, and The Countryside Agency, Warrenton, Virginia
March 25, 2004

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040325/default.htm

GL/GT all

sydney fg 16:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
concur there. get out while u can. should have hit that 1.8130 bid. quit when the quitting is cheap!

fwiw bailed eur short.

Quito Valdez 16:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh // do you figure eur/usd might hit 1.22 today?

boulder dat 16:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
amc, you're down 40. much more cushiony than the 170 pips that you were down before. now is the time you decide what kind of trader you are going to be. what do you stick to as rules. no one can really tell you what to do at this point with this trade. but, you can certainly listen to ideas. you'll decide what is best for you.

personally, i'd jump out. you were wrong on the market direction. and the market gave you a pretty good gift. but it's your call.

good luck.

pj amc 16:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
dat............entry is 1.8160

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, eur/jpy shorts exited
now only eur short and dlr/jpy longs left.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 15:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
cad s MACD has gnerated sell earlier , cad is now in support area pretty hard cushioned , anyway try to get rid of ur long and sell again on the next blip

U.K J.B. 15:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
trying a long here in Funds 1.3305 stop 1.3270 offered

Livingston nh 15:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
On this bounce (all majors) against USD when it runs out of gas today's lows will be challenged again within the next 24 hours (maybe this PM) - I don't think it will hold (supports on everything are below today's lows) //trick here may be a quick yen trip to 108 or so

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
rubber bands on aud, nzd and cad are all stretched again.... just need a tickle.

HK Kevin 15:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, sorry for the late reply. I hve covered the short NZD from 6552 at 6462. Still busing the short EUR/GBP. Re: USD/CAD, may try small long if 1.3250 is seen tonight.

Dallas GEP 15:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Kat. what does your system show on USD/CAD. You mentioned SHORT earlier.

sydney fg 15:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
short small eur 1.2180 while 129 .00 caps eurjpy

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
fwiw, good chance for eur/aud making a key day reversal.

prauge viktor 15:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep do u think its good to short euro now thanks

boulder dat 15:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc.... why not. you may want to consider that stop, though. why not try and put in a trailing stop below the market. what's the most that you would allow yourself to lose. if the market keeps moving up, you may consider moving the stop up with it. you've recovered a good deal. you may also want to lick the wounds and move on. but, i think you are pretty close to your entry point at this point.

ln 15:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
fed poole doing a lot of talking no trichet

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
tomorrow eur/gbp daily close will be indicative on eur trend next week.

Quito Valdez 15:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I'm a spot trader. 23 Mar bought usd @1.2333, sold 80 minutes ago for 1.2130 made 202 pips on eur/usd in 2 days, bought [email protected] Riding the horsey upward. Hope not on the saddle horn!

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, my stop on eur/jpy almost hit by 2 pips......

geez, the squeeze is now over, the end of NY will be another No man land again.....

Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Stopped out on 1.8105. Cable run TOO bullish

Quito Valdez 15:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg..yer welcome...ask Jay for my email address.

pj amc 15:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
should i let cable run???????????

Quito Valdez 15:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Stan, ask Jay for my email address please. (We mustn't post emails on the forums.)

sydney fg 15:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
valdez, copied that link for data - gave me a (.Y.) site!

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
small short eur 1.2163.

Sydney alimin 15:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
any news about what trichet has said or is saying?

iom stan 15:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez Thank you indeed that will be most useful for me, I really need such info quite regulary. Thanks again, GBP shoud rise soon there should be a base rise next week. Who knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Stan

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
added eur/jpy short 128.95

will sl exit 129.08 with the short from 129.60

sydney fg 15:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
bailed on gbp at entry lvl - eur at 1.2160 make me nervous

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I see some signs of that big bear generating outside day reversal on dlr/cad.....

need to watch out that.

Gen dk 15:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SG Jay 15:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
do you think we will see 1.79ish for Gbp/$ ?

hong kong nt 15:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- join long usd/cad @ 05...

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 15:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
cad is short not long

Quito Valdez 15:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
iom stan// If wanting to know the historical values on euro or any other c'ncy, I use:

for history data table:
http://www.censored.com/converter/cc_table

for quote on a certain date bid/ask:
http://www.censored.com/converter/cc_table

hope that helps :^)

Nottingham 15:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:21 GMT

Under 10 day sma now GEP, so I'd target that first then see how it goes from there...gl gt

Dallas GEP 15:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Bought usd.cad 1,3306 stop 1.3280 target 1.3380

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// not much time left to chase this eur/jpy run indeed....

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Honestly, the gbp swings surprise me today. though, I don' thave time to handle it.

Gen dk 15:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hong kong nt 15:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 15:15 -- you may try at 90...

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
2nd dlr/cad entered.

sydney fg 15:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
short small cable 1.8091.
add thru 1.8060 looking for 1.8020.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
time to short eur spike?......

may try when eur/jpy clench the 129 again...

hong kong nt 15:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- exit usd/jpy w/20 pips...

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// If you wish, I don't mind ;)

But it's not good to be guru.
btw, have you read the poem in PF by Revdax?
V. interesting.

boulder dat 15:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
not much pull. just a quick phone call.

boulder dat 15:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks JP.
i'm still thinking of a long on euro. if we see a dip, i think i'll buy. the euro is terminally rangebound. i've been playing that for a few days now. the options guys at the bottom of the market, around the 1.2100 level are keepin it up. once this options roll off, we could see euro finally break below the 1.2100 level as these guys will cover their long defense positions.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sp// I would like to give it one more day for 127.xx hope.

hong kong nt 15:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- time to have your handle changed to "minor X'pert"...

Dallas GEP 15:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Mr. DAT, I believe you arranged for that oil terror alert while you were in position. Now THAT my friend takes some PULL!!!

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
but why eurchf is not dropping like rocks???

That cad operator has so much strength....

Next entry at 1.3301.

sgp sp 15:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab, have u exited ur eur/jpy shorts? or r u still waiting for 127++?

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, interested in fry goose?

Barcelona JP 15:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat

Nice, Dat!!!

SA getFX 15:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Stan > EurGbp 23 Mar I have daily figs:
H 6697
L 6650
C 6668
O 6677

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GO, eur/aud......

Gen dk 15:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
but watch out the last worry on eur/jpy.

it's still under 129....

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, eur/gbp never lie again...

pj amc 15:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
where is next resistance for cable?? thanks

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, could well be unwinding of crosses on risk adverse.

The last time this happens is in 911 and aud/jpy drops 7 big fig. in a week.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
KEvin, could well be unwinding of crosses on risk adverse.

The last time this happens is in 911 and aud/jpy drops 7 big fig. in a week.

IST Sez 15:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
move your S/L to 1,82 frds

boulder dat 15:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
out of my long cable @ 87.

iom stan 15:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I have a small problem with my bank and need to know the spread of the gbp to Euro on the 23rd, any one help please , TIA Stan

nyc fxdh 15:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
not a rumor..... FBI warning

Tallinn viies 15:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
STG buy @ fixing rumours still around fwiw

HK Kevin 14:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, interesting. Only AUD & NZD down.

nyc fxdh 14:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
stocks not reacting to FBI warning....oil still down .66

Barcelona JP 14:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Like that game of terror alerts. Sharks having their feast!!!

U.K J.B. 14:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Squared dolls/cad 1.3345 sit back now

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
terrorist rumour can't help aud and nzd anymore, they have become risk averse now.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/aud good time....

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Now we all know there the base lines are ....

long dlr/cad 1.3345....

Dallas GEP 14:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Yeah terrorist alert and USD responded with small USD selling action. Once again stop was moved to 1.8105

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Good job in the forum with the news thanks for reporting nyc fxdh. There is the boost for the short $ at the moment IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP just heard oil refineries in Texas are put in high alert no specifics.

nyc fxdh 14:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
according to CNBC

nyc fxdh 14:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Fbi has put all refineries in state of texas on high elert

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
something wrong with dlr/cad.....

U.K J.B. 14:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Play with it how you like nice free trade for you in Canada GL

Quito Valdez 14:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
...was going to change dollars for euros, just waiting for this hickup to pass.

IST Sez 14:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GEP,
Could you please explain the reason of further eur down?Techn and/or fundemantal reasons push eur down?TIA

Dallas GEP 14:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Stop management is the HARDEST thing to convey on forum. If price action takes me close to stop and I look at charts and IF I see a retracement imminent I will MOVE stop sometimes too fast to post that fact. Sometimes temporarily I will work wo stops but that is VERY dangerous if you are not VERY quick.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez You are welcomed hombre

Quito Valdez 14:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP! (Valdez passes a cup of aromatic Ecuadorian espresso) So many variables in this mkt now...whew! Shooting fish in a barrel won't happen today!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AB you have an elegant lunch secured for the day lol. I will get my breakfast now, later. GL GT

boulder dat 14:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
not yet. i threw a stop in @ entry. i have a sneaky feeling euro is going to have a pretty decent move up. this should get cable up to my exit level. i lowered it to 87.

i'm thinking of going long euro at this level as well. but, i'm cautious.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
get 28 pips in hr.
which made up the 200 pips in eur....hehehe.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:30 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
s/l.
willl reenter later.

eur/jpy rejected big fig again......

Dallas GEP 14:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I think in next week or two Euro will be in 1.18's and 1.19's

Dallas GEP 14:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DAT, I hope you banked your pips. Probably have seen the MAX of this little movement. You did GREAT!!!

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
and Kevin, above all, jpy is the king!.

far more than we expect on eurgbp cross.

Quito Valdez 14:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL // thanks amigo

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
OMIL, Kevin// this eur/gbp almost made a key day reversal......

Kevin, even this pair reverse, eur might need to take 2-3 sessions for real action. Moreover, if this retreat soon this week, the pic will still be unclear.

Dallas GEP 14:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
SEZ, the day is FAR from over my friend!!! LOL

boulder dat 14:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Gep...
i lowered my target price on getting out. i may get out real soon, as i usually don't make pips this quickly. there could be some ugly retracement from this level.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AB cable longing is not helping either it is holding up the show for eur/usd to make a stronger move up. As I said before eur/usd needs a good retracement to continue a healthy $ correction IMHO.

Quito Valdez 14:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, what's your take on eur/usd for the next week or so...do you think the usd will keep gaining to hover in 1.20 ranges and the euro will keep loosing?

HK Kevin 14:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HK ab, what is the implication of this crazy EUR/GBP? I have small short at 1.6712. Does the rising E/G (vere rare for 100 pipis a day) indicate some operators is working on the opposite side?

Dallas GEP 14:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Moved stop out of way on Pound. GREAT call on the LONG from 1.8030, I got it wrong intially for sure.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
trail at 1.2133.

Nottingham 14:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj...acted as a pivot once again with a nice reaction run once taken...so now will act as support at 8054...if fails to hold (fill in the blank here)...gl gt

IST Sez 14:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP,
Today is not your lucky day.LOL
take care frd.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/jpy must come back above 129.20 to give eur a breather.

B.A. BOCA 14:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
farmacia: thanks, tomorrow should be interesting anyway.. gl

Melbourne DC 14:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
maybe we have that gbp fix buyer again .. gbpusd had rallied last few days between 00-04aest. (just wild thought)

Chambery FR JFB 14:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 14:08 GMT March 25, 2004
Thank you :-)
"Sorry mate its just the way i've designed the system, can't give you all the clues" : nothing to be sorry of, your posts are much appreciated :-) Thanks again.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks OMIL...

pj amc 14:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham...........I need cable to go up..........cant a rookie catch a break.....LOL

Nottingham 14:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable...why fix when not broken...8054 was pivotal during morning session...gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AB FWIW your eur/usd long should be ok as long as you are just quick pip picking. Look for the 50% retracement fib (1.2155-60) from November is capping the up move for now IMHO.

melbourne farmacia 14:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 13:08 GMT March 25, 2004
Chambery FR JFB 13:55 GMT March 25, 2004
Euro & Aud etc.. Levels consist of 5 majors and 5 secondary within a range. As cable covers 100 + pips per day, i mainly trade off majors etc . Sorry mate its just the way i've designed the system, can't give you all the clues. GT

B.A. BOCA 13:26 GMT March 25, 2004
My mistake, its next week ( looking at the chart upside down like the NAB option boys )

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC// but I see a break of .67 will not spell good things for eur. No worry, this is just normal to me.

Melbourne DC 14:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hb ab
if eurgbp retreating b'cos of gbpusd bounce, not neccessary a bad thing for eurusd long. IMHO .

Melbourne Qindex 14:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The next quantised level is 190.48. The mid-point reference of 190.48 - 192.34 is 191.41.


Melbourne Qindex 01:01 GMT March 14, 2004
GBP/JPY : Is the market aiming at 192.34?

My 22-day & 44-day cycle reference (4/3) indicates that a projected resistant level has been established at 201.14 - 201.64. The odds are good that the market can go all the way down to 192.34. Speculative selling will increase if the market is trading below 196.95.


... 177.45 ... // 192.34* - 194.20 - 196.06* - 197.92 - 199.78* - 201.64 // 203.50* ...

U.K J.B. 14:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Time to short dolls/cad 1.3420 s/l 1.3450 bid good r/r GL

Dallas GEP 13:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
1.8044 should be cap for POUND 9 period MA Could be WRONG howvever. STOP is @ 1.8063 now

Melbourne DC 13:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hb ab
agree regarding trend .. IFR just wrote about analysts becoming eurusd bearish .. so more sellers on rallies than dip buyers possibly ahead. The smart money of course are those who figure this out from above 1.2500 (not me) some time ago.
but at the moment some are interested in keeping range, so like you say, could be the play today. ie contra with tight stop.
Good luck to both you and BC .. David.

ICT ML 13:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
guys enjoy Snowman and Greenspeake today...think I take a nap now and come back after the windbags are through trying to weaken the $$$ .....

SA getFX 13:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable: Posts 06:59 & 08:27 seem to have been valid. We may pop back to T/L, now at ~ 1.8070, or 1.8082. Conversely, we could carry on down: S5 is at 1.7819 - a bit far, I think. GT.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hm... eurgbp retreats.

Chambery FR JFB 13:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004
if I may as well... :-) Why do you consider the low @1.6665 and not the 1.5600 double low (Aug-Sept03)? It looks to me as the base of the last move up... Am I wrong somewhere? TIA

boulder dat 13:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ouch... GEP....
i'm long cable @ 1.8030. target 1.8097.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 13:50 GMT March 25, 2004
Think about it this way everyone here was a rookie.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
imvho, the real war is on eur/jpy not eur.....

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC// I think bc just meant " day low" not obvious trend reversal........

so, putting this in mind, buy contra and wait for signal tomorrow is not bad.

sydney fg 13:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
who's greenspan addressing today?

pj amc 13:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I hate being a rookie

dc fxq 13:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EURUSD seems to have found decent support at 1.2100 this am just above my daily S3 at 1.1993. If that fails to hold then we likely have to test the March 02 intraday low of 1.2057 to find then next line of major defense.

Melbourne Qindex 13:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 11:33 GMT - If the market can penetrate through the lower barrier of my daily cycle at 1.7993 // 1.8054, the short term target is 1.7936. The odds are in favour of taking short position. The mid-point reference of 1.7993 // 1.8054 is 1.8024. It is very negative if the market is trading below 1.7936.

Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT March 25, 2004
GBP/USD : The market is going to challenge the supporting strength of the lower barrier located at 1.7993 // 1.8054.


... 1.7746 ... 1.7869 ... 1.7993 // 1.8054 - 1.8116 - 1.8178 - 1.8240 // 1.8333 - 1.8425 ...

Melbourne Qindex 11:19 GMT March 25, 2004
GBP/USD : Key quantised levels from my 22-day and 44-day cycles are 1.7936 - 1.8225 - 1.8421.

Melbourne DC 13:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab
good of you to give BC a hand :))

Dallas GEP 13:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Short POUND @ 1.8030 stop @ 1.8057 target .7950 initial

Washington MMM 13:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi Guys
Any views on USD/CAD ?
thanks

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 13:42 GMT March 25, 2004
No question is silly in my book. This is terminology used for basketball players when they show you one move and then make another move. Hence they move their head one way hoping the opposition will go that way and then go the opposite way. I hope that helps.

LHR B747 13:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Lage Zwaluwe: false alarm too

May peace will be part of everybody's life!!!

LHR B747 13:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Amsterdam central station: false alarm

ln 13:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:37 GMT: a silly question but what is a "head fake"?

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
will take one more try at 1.2100 fig. and same sl under 1.2183.

pj amc 13:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable sold off like this around March 12 to a low of 1.7901 and then rallied to a high of 1.8539 on March 23. What, if any , is the difference in this selloff?

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
long 2 lots eur 1.2119, tight s/l under.

boulder dat 13:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
i'm looking to buy some euro, and maybe some cable. with the euro, it appears that the options defense is going to keep it propped up.

sydney fg 13:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
yes omil, sellers gobbled up at 1.2100.
see what happens on the second or third go at it.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Just a head fake in the market I believe better numbers for longing the dollar will come IMHO.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
phew
bc// your daily low comment is so COOL.

exited 1.2115.

ln 13:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
censored reaction to data. $ should be a lot higher.

Ina* co'z 13:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
my humble opinions cable will correction at 1.8060..b'fore getting down at 1.7937 , with stop at 1.8090. gl/gt..

Melbourne Qindex 13:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 12:07 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

sydney fg 13:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
thks boca.
interesting situation indeed. seems equities are the safest bet for any sort of meaningful return for joe public with interest rates so low. Gold price indicates the risk in that strategy becoming too big though. thks for ur thghts.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
oh almost forgot you 747,

I will go in your direction soon.,...

B.A. BOCA 13:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
farmacia: is tomorrow still looking like one of your 'special' days?

Chambery FR JFB 13:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML : thanks for your mail, but nothing attached.. is it normal Doc? Thx anyway :-)

LHR B747 13:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Bomb alerts in The Netherlands:
(1) Cerntal trein station of Amsterdam
(2) Lage Zwaluwe (Breda) (trein traffic shut down in the area)

PAR 13:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
European politicians should realise that monetary policy alone cannot stimulate an economy. Fiscal policy is much more important in stimulating growth and consumer demand.

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
my most imminent position is eur and eur/jpy.

See something interesting in other forums and seem gbp should have a bit more downside to develop till weekend.

Melbourne Qindex 13:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro 12:16 GMT - Send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he will arrange you to see my page as soon as possible. We don't have any trial period for other premium service. Use the Archive function of this forum and see my previous postings. We run the analysis only and you have to make up your own trading strategy.

London AL 13:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin. gmt 16:00

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sp// I first exited them at 1.1400 and then, entered short at 1.1430 and closed 1.1425.


The problem is the two countries are going to have election soon, and from experience, this will cost a lot of undesirable swing to hurt you and usually negative on the curr.

I would say, buy nzd and aud near fig. line may sound better and buy them in layers till the 2nd fig. i.e. .7000, .69, .68 if seen.

nt// how's the c9 index at the moment?

Eilat Dolphin 13:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
At what time does Trichet speak ?

B.A. BOCA 13:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg // it seems that recently the low-dollar, high-equities relationship has reversed, and every time the dollar makes gains the stock market rallies on it. all has to do with interest rates, in my view....and a strong dollar pushes rates back further (and inflation). but gold has also been flying alone lately, could be the beginning of de-coupling of asset classes whose relationships we all had pretty much figured out the last years. interesting times..

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sp// I am flat on aud/nzd now.
just kept some nzd shorts.
.6507, .6563, .6610.

Barcelona JP 13:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
While eur/usd does not trade above 1.2198, I'll be shorting it.
Target: 1.2054 at least.

As I see it, sorry, any long here is "bottom guessing".

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 09:43 GMT March 25, 2004
ab -- what's your target on 105.9 long? thx



sorry, nt, was away.

actually, I just found that the jpy crosses should find a temporary support soon, so, jpy will lifted up easily on general retracement.

Hopefully a 38.2 from 112 to 106

sgp sp 13:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hmmm.....slightly?.....what is your confidence level on that....u still holding any of your previous longs?

hk ab nzd 0.6 13:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sp// aud/nzd showed slightly up-bias.

Chambery FR JFB 13:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn pm 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004
no pain, maybe... but it hurts all the way down... lol

sydney fg 13:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
equities being bought up . anyone with a theory of why? looks like market sees chance to het on up trend at 'cheap' lvls. surprised at this with oil ticking up.

ICT ML 13:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 13:06...no problem....hope you get the hang of it...you ask good questions. Lots of other guys here full of good ideas too.

Chambery FR JFB 13:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004
Thx... Just another question : do similar calculation work as well for other pairs? and/or for other timeframes, to get shorter term levels? 45 levels!! Geez :-) TIA

pj amc 13:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ict.ml .......thanks for helping out with my posts.

ICT ML 13:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
covered all gbp shorts at 1.8037 from 1.8375...don't like to be on defensive after data reactions.....good run, will jump in after the fireworks ......

Eilat Dolphin 13:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Georges/ Only Gladiators have to salute before the fight.

nyc sa 13:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia , if u don't mind would u plz post ur cable levels from bottom to top for the forseable future , seems they have been working well so far ,thnx .

Vilnius george 12:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
anyone going to the party at 13:30 gmt today? lol

ICT ML 12:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004
Supply not meeting real and perceived demand. i.e. CHINA cannot get enough oil.

my opinion anyway

Barcelona JP 12:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
US boys are in, now.

sydney fg 12:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
thanks omil and ad.
usdchf in congested area too. feel it will be tough for it to go through 1.2850 without big data surprise.
g/l all.

Philippines newtrader 12:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

Raden...
good evening...how are you?

PAR 12:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
While the whole world is thinking about raising interest rates Trichet starts listening to politicians and starts talking about lowering interest rates.

Kaunas 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Anyone could give a brief explenation of recent oil price trends? (up)

melbourne farmacia 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 12:32 GMT March 25, 2004
Series of "voodoo" fibo calculations from 1.6565 base level. Once calculated, i have 45 levels between 1.7000 - 1.9053 of which to enter/ exit on. Works ok for my cable trades. GT

Barcelona JP 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Moscow Konsul

You are right, man. But we need to be aware. They may do the opposite of what we expect.

Ldn pm 12:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Boulder Dat - trouble is, to use your rock climbing analogy, a fall from 5000 feet results in no pain - just death and therefore no second chance !

hk ab nzd 0.6 12:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
jf// the gbp/jpy is holy smoke now.....

your short from 195 is so powerful eh...

and that eur/gbp tells that tomorrow is a eur buy day (not today though).

mex sjs 12:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
i am long usdchf from 1.2771 since last night, tgt = above 1.2900, sar = 1.2745....we`ll soon see direction...

Barcelona JP 12:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
How much did they spend holding euro today?
What are they defending?

Chambery FR JFB 12:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 12:36 GMT March 25, 2004
lol... voodoo or aborigenal magic? that's the question... :-)

Moscow Konsul 12:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
JP We may see answer on your question at 13:30

Barcelona JP 12:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
B.A. BOCA 12:42 GMT March 25, 2004

Right!!!!!

B.A. BOCA 12:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc // no, what i'm saying is that eurgbp has taken all the pressure today of euro (euro has not moved while cable dumped), and it cannot continue to do that much longer..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 12:32 GMT March 25, 2004
It is standby mode for eur/usd waiting for data and the intraday indicators to unwind from yesterday. The strategy is selling on rallies and I posted the numbers earlier for retracement and resitstance is at 1.2235-40 and 1.2270-75 at the moment. GL GT

pj amc 12:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
boca...........so what your saying is that they trade inversely to each other. eur/gbp and gbp/usd

ICT ML 12:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
JFB....he uses a different type of voodoo line drawing and black magic :-)...very good stuff for the major swings..

B.A. BOCA 12:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good day all...eurgbp will be key now to see more cable downside. it needs to correct a bit it seems...gl

GER ad 12:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
13.30 hours U.S.A. Initial jobless claims w/e 20th March 13.30 hours U.S.A. Q4 GDP final revision
15.00 hours U.S.A. February Existing home sales

sydney fg 12:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hi frds,
can anyone pls confirm that final q4 us gdp number will be released in one hr?
my calendar is unreliable. thks.

u around omil? eur dangling out there on the daily. Failure to break 1.2100 promising for a retracement to 1.2200-50 area?
let's hope for a surprise inthe data eh.

Chambery FR JFB 12:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 12:26 GMT March 25, 2004
"Note : my levels are not based on chart support / resistance levels."
Hi Farmacia, if I may ask : do you mean your levels are based on fundamentals? or technically calculated but not using chart s/r levels? Given your accuracy, am really curious :-) TIA

Barcelona JP 12:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
What's the problem with euro?

Seems clear: sharks are holding it.

Do they let it go south?

They will. When?

That's the question.

GVI john 12:30 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2135…$/yen 106.20
DJIA +29 pts… 10-yr 3.72%, +1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
The markets are back in full swing today. Even thought the net movements have not been that great, the yen is certainly back in play following a 52% yr/yr increase in Japan’s trade surplus. The markets are interpreting the data as a sign that export-led growth is solidly entrenched. Also portfolio flows by foreigners into Japan were a positive net Y1.1 tln in the March 15-19 period, thanks to large stock purchases. I have been saying this yen demand is not repatriation related and here are the data that show it. Also note the recent strength of the Nikkei. There are rumors of modest BOJ intervention, and we have no reason to doubt them. Talk is that 105.50 is the level they want to hold into month end, but there is growing talk of sub-100 levels now.

In Europe both ECB President and Buba Chief Welteke have left the door ajar for a consideration of an ECB rate cut. I don’t know if April 1 is too soon but I’ve never understood the thinking behind dragging out monetary policy moves. We have already seen some pretty large adjustments in the Euribor futures this week as that market begins to prepare for this rate reduction. FWIW, I heard today that the only thing protecting eur/$ 1.20 is the protection of major K.O. positions at 1.2060 and 1.2040.

As for the BOE rate hike, I would find it very strange to see the BOE and ECB move in opposite directions almost simultaneously. It could happen, but BOE Governor King today warned today about the strength of the pound and the need for gradual BOE policy moves. Maybe this is a signal to the markets that they have gotten ahead of themselves? Also it could be that he does not want to see a BOE rate hike push sterling much higher? There is a lot to discuss here. The U.K. CBI data were stronger that expected.

Today and Friday see a full calendar of data from the U.S. (see below). One highlight on the open will be Weekly Jobless Claims. Street estimates are for a level of 340,000 in the month after 336,000 in the prior week. A slew of Fed officials are speaking. Greenspan will speak at 14:00 GMT and ECB President Trichet will speak in Boston at 21:00 GMT.

CALENDAR
THURSDAY MARCH 25, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
13:30 GMT- US- 4Q04 GDP revision: vs. preliminary +4.1%
15:00 GMT- US- Feb Existing Home Sales: vs. 6.04 mln Jan, see 6.1mln

FRIDAY, MARCH 26, 2004
23:30 GMT- JPN- February Tokyo CPI, vs. -0.2%
23:50 GMT- JPN- February Retail Sales, vs. +1.3%
09:00 GMT- GER- March IFO Business Sentiment Survey: vs. 96.4 in Feb
09:30 GMT- UK- 4Q03 Current Account: vs. -GBP8.1 bln (deficit) in 3Q03
09:30 GMT- UK- GDP (3rd revision): vs. +0.9%, +2.8% y/y (2nd revision)
11:00 GMT- EUR- Feb M3 (money supply): vs. +7.0% y/y in Jan
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Personal Income: vs. +0.2% in Jan, see +0.3%
13:30 GMT- US- Feb Personal Cons Exp: vs. +0.4% in Jan, see +0.5%
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Retail Sales
13:30 GMT- CDA- January Wholesale Trade
14:45 GMT- US- Mar University of Michigan Cons Sent: vs. 94.1 mid-March

SUNDAY, MARCH 26, 2004
AUS- Daylight Savings Time Ends
EZ/UK- Daylight Savings Time Begins

perth rick 12:30 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 12:19 GMT March 25, 2004
I just figured out that stop losses are pretty important..............

many dont realise it until their account is wiped out

Barcelona JP 12:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
With the allowance of US data, I think Cable will go south to 1.7950.
If it trades above 1.8225 before that level is seen, I'll have to change my view.

Cable has room to go to 1.7950 before a real retracement is seen.

melbourne farmacia 12:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML - 1.7990 Limit hit for me will trail the rest now.

nyc sa - I don't suggest shorting at these levels until we see the bounce. If 1.7990 goes look for 1.7955 - 1.7920. The bottom of my projected range = 1.7809. Don't expect bottom to be hit without the bounce first. GT

Note : my levels are not based on chart support / resistance levels.

boulder dat 12:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc....
i do a lot of rock climbing. one thing i never do without when i climb is use a rope for protection. if you fall without a rope... splat!

it's funny how similar rock climbing and trading can be.

from what i can tell, cable has done its run for the day. i'd say the worst part of your pain is over.... for today. looks like this will continue, though.

pj amc 12:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I just figured out that stop losses are pretty important..............

Montréal Taro 12:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex
I went to your website, and I don't understand how your system is working. So I sent you a email asking for trial and some information on how it works.
Until I receive an answer, can you tell me a little more ? How to use it ?

boulder dat 12:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML...
the u.s. data should continue to dissapoint in regards to jobs. that trend is well in place. i think you're right. cable just may be a buy at this level. as for euro, the paint on my wall is done drying. now i have nothing better to watch.

Gen dk 12:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

perth rick 12:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
perth Rick 12:04 GMT March 23, 2004
sold gbp at market 1.8430 for 1.80 gl to me.

too bad the trade was entered 2 hours earlier

ICT ML 12:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DAT...thinking maybe we should start scaling out before the US data myself...but I'll give it another go at 1.7975 maybe first...

PAR 12:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
If Trichet wants european consumers to spent he should advise european states and european institutions to drastically reduce their government and subsidy spending so that taxes can be lowered and money be given to people who work for it. Less jobs in public sector means lower taxes and more jobs in private sector. Otherwise europ will end like the former soviet union with their plan economy.

Sydney alimin 12:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
i have the feeling eur downfall will start when trichet speaks out later

boulder dat 12:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
and for the record, i am very dissapointed in the lack of a sell-off in euro. i guess the options defenders are winning so far today. this thing should be down to the 1.2050 level for sure with the sell-off in cable. there was a german name selling eur/gbp at about this level yesterday. maybe they will continue to sell in to this level and keep the lid on euro. this is kind of what i am watching for.

Sydney alimin 12:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good call Dr Qindex, that gbp/usd quantised level is absolutely brilliant! thx

boulder dat 12:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
i was surprised at the lack of stops at the 1.8000 level in cable. i was hopeful for a bigger drop below this level. i wonder if that may be about the extent of the downside for this session?

ICT ML 11:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc....there is about to be an hourly tech event that will probably accelerate the down move.....ema50 and 200 crossing down.. I would not wait for 1.8200...you might not see that. When I amin your shoes...and I am more than you think...I cut it loose...cuss myself out..and make a plan to earn it back..cause you never know how bad it will get on you with gbp

gold coast jsh 11:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML...checked, thanks mate

nyc sa 11:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good morning Farmacia , could u plz give entry exit levels on cable thnx .

ICT ML 11:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
jsh...champ...check your hotmail

pj amc 11:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne.......with the way cable trades is it possible for it to retrace back to 1.82?

dc fxq 11:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gold coast jsh 11:51 - if the March low of 1.2057 is taken out ... DUCK!

melbourne farmacia 11:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
cl krish 11:35 GMT March 25, 2004
Cable's 40 odd figure run needs to correct mate. The last run to 1.8530ish just retraced 50% of 1.9140 - 1.7904. When cable dumps, don't stand in her way. GT

gold coast jsh 11:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
will euro finally break down now?

sg tpe 11:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Mr raden.

you dont think we shud sell cable? How abt euro.
my view to see b/w 1.21. (personal view)
do u share the same view then. thanks

ln 11:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 11:23 GMT. I got humbled as i tried to be gready and thought i am missing out on a few pounds. this is my biggest enemy as it gets me into trades at the wrong levels. if i had waited i could have imporved profits. LOL

pj amc 11:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Should I sell cable now and just lick my wounds?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
safety exit for sell gbp/usd.
try cut reverse.

sg tpe 11:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
krish,
FYI

17:44 25Mar2004 RTRS-STERLING FALLS SHARPLY VS DOLLAR, EURO AFTER BOE CHIEF KING'S FX COMMENTS
17:57 25Mar2004 RTRS-Sterling tumbles after BoE King's FX comments

LONDON, March 25 (Reuters) - Sterling fell almost one percent from late New York levels against the dollar and the euro on Thursday after Bank of England governor Mervyn King pointed to the risk of sterling's appreciation on UK growth. King, testifying before the Treasury Select Committee, said the prospect of more balanced growth was not helped by sterling's rise and that the strengthening currency was making life difficult for UK exporters.
BoE's deputy governor Andrew Large also said sterling has been a factor in the bank's thinking.
Analysts say the comments prompted investors to scale back expectations UK rates are going to rise aggressively.
"People have to accept that a stronger sterling is the less likely it is they will raise rates. The question is how sensitive that relationship is," said Adrian Schmidt, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland.
"But the market was long of sterling."
By 0955 GMT sterling had fallen as low as $1.8056 . Against the euro it also fell to 67.11 pence .
]

sg tpe 11:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shud i place a sell lvl at 1.2200 for 1.2090? pls comment. thanks

cl krish 11:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me why cable fell

pj amc 11:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
melbourne.qindex.......i wrote a question to you on the help forum if you can answer that would be great

Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 11:29 GMT March 25, 2004
GBP/USD : The market is going to challenge the supporting strength of the lower barrier located at 1.7993 // 1.8054.


... 1.7746 ... 1.7869 ... 1.7993 // 1.8054 - 1.8116 - 1.8178 - 1.8240 // 1.8333 - 1.8425 ...

Melbourne Qindex 11:19 GMT March 25, 2004
GBP/USD : Key quantised levels from my 22-day and 44-day cycles are 1.7936 - 1.8225 - 1.8421.

ICT ML 11:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
just read 1.7600 puts are being bought in size...that tells me lots of guys see a much lower gbp coming....

ICT ML 11:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 11:19 GMT ...thanks...one thing I have learned...there is NO sure thing......only educated guesses....and when I get cocky, I get humbled real quick...LOL

Tallinn viies 11:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
selling euros ag gbp is worth considering....
tested 38,2% retr.

ln 11:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 10:57 GMT. appreciate your views. i have to admit i had a stupid short on last week at the lows and held it as i did not believe in cable upside. i was very lucky but with an option hedge managed to limit loss should cable have gone to 1.88 or 1.90. but with the hedge gone and now flat on p/l i can get some rest. i feel 1.79 will break but there are a lot of option related exotics below here.

Wiarton H 11:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
If Cable can stay above it we may see healthy retracement.When going trough the line down it can go to 1.75

pj amc 11:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
wiarton....what does that mean for cable? should price go up? down?

Wiarton H 11:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable touched the base line on the daily from Nov 7 to March 12

Gen dk 11:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 11:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
re cable...I think it's important that nearby support holds as things could cascade out of control since there are some pivotal levels lower down which could well have a domino effect of triggering each other...on the positive side this panic would offer the chance for daily contrarians to get long for the first time in a couple of weeks...gl gt

ICT ML 10:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 10:53 GMT...well...barring a real shocker..haha...I had 2 scenarios...and the first kept failing to break into a true bull move over 1.8500 so its out now...but my 2nd one, mid term and longer says the gbp party ended in late Feb...and 1.7500 will be just a resting stop for bigger fall. All based on monthly and weekly charts and stuff...

I see it falling below 1.7900 this week right now.

Gold Coast martin 10:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good evening....aud and nzd posted further lows today and will continue downward bias to previously posted lows of 7150 and 62 range ...working on next cycle of trading ranges for both currencies once they reach the projected lows by the end of ny session friday...will keep you posted....

ln 10:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 10:40 GMT. i am wondering what your view is on cable ahead of payrolls next week. do you see 1.7900 breaking?

ln 10:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 10:34 GMT. have found it easier to play it from short side than long side. it keeps your heart rate in control...

melbourne farmacia 10:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 04:33 GMT March 25, 2004
Sorry mate, went out for a bit, missed your post.
Gbp/Usd Daily chart doesn't support 1.88 at this stage, more like 1.7500. gt

Gen dk 10:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 10:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd still under sell signal for minor cyclic.

EZ Rachacha 10:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hello Golden Boys!
I think 1.8050 on cable should hold for now. The pair is over over sold², so a little retracement of at least 50 pips wouldn't be a luxe.
Could someone tells me what datas do we have today? Thx.

SA Newbie 10:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML-- I posted my e-mail in the help forum if you may be so kind to send me the same(to trade GBP) TIA!!

Mumbai mitali 10:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
What i follow is- my stop lossses are half of take profits- say i m looking to make a profit of 100 pips, in that case my stop loss would be -50 pips

ICT ML 10:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
KL......for mid term....look at a monthly gbp-usd chart with RSI and slow stochastics....it is 95% in my mind headed DOWN if it breaks 1.7900 this week....

pj amc 10:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Can I get some feedback on what is the best way to implement stop losses. how many pips is the reccomendation?

KL KL 10:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 10:17 ... If cable goes down what are the levels will you be longing the pound?....seems like 1.8 will hold and the last 1.795 should be the floor. Not sure if that will be seen tonight... yours ang any body view welcome on longing gbpusd

UK 10:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
BoE's King: Won't Avoid Rate Move To Avoid A Surprise

Nottingham 10:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Riga Nick 10:23 GMT

I'm trading purely overextensions and retracements these days but if you are referring to that cable level, it was a fibo some traders were using as a line in sand...principle is the same though in that it can be precise only that you need to know which is the correct one to focus on + from which time frame at any given time and as far as I know I haven't seen a book written on that subject sorry...gl gt

Chambery FR JFB 10:30 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, fwiw, here are the EMAs for Euro on the upside :
dema89 1.2294
dema13 1.2285
dema8 1.2267
60ema89 1.2246
60ema144 1.2241
30ema144 1.2231
60ema55 1.2219
30ema89 1.2206
15ema144 1.2199
60ema34 1.2185
30ema55 1.2173
15ema89 1.2167
60ema21 1.2154
30ema34 1.2145
15ema55 1.2143

Happy trades :-)

pj amc 10:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ict.ml..............Thanks for taking the time to answer. i read what you wrote on the help section and anything you can send me would be great. my email is [email protected]

Helsinki iw 10:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Fwiw/ Hourly charts suggest shanghai bc may be right in his
call (again). A move over hourly bollinger midpoint, currently
at 1,2145ish, should see intraday shorts squeezed.IMHO

Riga Nick 10:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham
Hello
Sorry to bother you. But may be you can advise some literature where I can find some concept and some details of your system of trading?
It's wery interesting to me how stops and targets can be applied when you trade using MAs.
Thank you in advance. GL>

ln 10:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 10:10 GMT. yes that is right. from its high the tendency has been for a 2-3% correction once it becomes oversold on downside. the last correction was much stronger but once we have seen 1.7900 think we will get the bounce. the cable put is there just in case it accelerates lower. in this environment it should offset losses on cash poss.

Barcelona JP 10:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable, as far as 1.8050 holds, could retrace to 1.8105-1.8123-1.8140.

From one of those levels, cable could go down again below 1.8000.

If it retraces above 1.8152, I'll have to make another picture of it.

The mood is down. But euro is not following cable. So we are in a critical juncture. Maybe, US data will turn on the light.

ICT ML 10:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 09:57 .......request my email from [email protected] global-view.com....I will send you some stuff that helps with trading GBP......besides the pint of RUM and funny cigars...LOL

I answered your Q on help forum too....we really want to help you out here. Gbp is not the best ccy to start with though...for this reason.

If a few big guys I know of show up here at 1.8050 you could get a little bounce to cover on..but so far they aren't interested in buying yet

Nottingham 10:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 10:03 GMT

full retracement to 1.7905...but fwiw I expect the following...eurgbp gives up some gains (high so far was a whisker from the technical resistance at 6717) + cable holds my support for a return to 1.81 handle to begin with and then review...gl gt

pj amc 10:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ln.............when you say oversold and retracement i take that as a positive for the price to move back up some ?

london 10:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good dollar strength across the board. buying the Euro at these levels may be very painful.

ln 10:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 09:57 GMT. i would buy a cable put for protection and look to offload the long on corrections. preserve your capital whatever is left so dont try and get it all back just as much as the market is willing to give. rsi/macd are oversold so good chance of pullback but the option is there just in case this becomes fast. EBS is going funny at these levels so good chance that we could see retracement.

Gen dk 10:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

gold coast jsh 10:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
*taps nose*

pj amc 10:03 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nottingham..............what do you mean full retracement. iam long from 1.8160. I dont mind holding it for awhile if you guys think it has a chance to get back to about 1.82. i did not put a s/l in

ICT ML 10:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
jsh...no...I no speak Chinese..:-)

ln 10:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 09:46 GMT. what do you make of this DNT talk are the flows for real related to its defence? would you trade euro for higher or leave this baby alone?

Barcelona JP 10:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc

You are long in cable from.....?

Where did you place your s/l?

Nottingham 10:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 09:57 GMT

8054 v key now, risk of full retracement if taken

gold coast jsh 10:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML...well can you get on the phone and tell him to stop it...its not GEP is it?

ICT ML 09:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
jsh...what we have here...is agressive euro buying by someone..and I think I might know who....

gold coast jsh 09:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
is eur/gbp still holding this stubborn eur up?

pj amc 09:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I would like some help please with what to do with my long gbp/usd position. I am well underwater on it and am nervous about todays unemployment numbers being good for the dollar. Any advice would be greatly appreciated

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
wow, not good for buy gbp/usd now, please exit your buy or cut reverse to get 1.8036 and cut reverse there.

madrid jms 09:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eurusd target 1.2080

Barcelona JP 09:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi to all!!

My lovely cable can go south as far as 1.7950 while 1.8182 holds.

Melbourne DC 09:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
BC .. thanks for the reply .. Looks like a lot of focus on high 1.20's now .. all the best in your trade . David.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain
eur/usd have get 1.2095

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hello..
be carefull gbp/usd able to wake up from low 1.8060.
better exit your sell position here

Haifa ac 09:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
FWIW. Yesterday could have been 25 day cycle high for Euro. Tmw is 27 potential cycle low for DX. If these cycles are valid and the market wants to pay attention to them--we are in front of some sharp decline in euro.
There is absolutely NO SUPPORt between 120 and 11785 (sort of gap).

shanghai bc 09:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

DC -- Good evening..I am just struggling to make sure the day low is seen already..LOL..On Eur/Usd 1.29.I was struggling again up there..The outcome is no guarantee like a boxing match..Good trades..

Nottingham 09:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable broke a daily fibo in the 40's hence kneejerk drop (next fibo at 8054)...a very large double bottom in eurgbp would make gbp an underperformer if played out but since a rise in that cross would almost certainly need to be coupled with a eurusd rise, cable would ultimately benefit...gl gt

london 09:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
rumor market gunning to take out 1.2050 DNT

hong kong nt 09:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- what's your target on 105.9 long? thx

UK 09:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
BoE's King: Rise In Sterling Will Inhibit Rebalancing Consumer Spending Growth Still Set To Slow
Sees Robust Growth Over Next Two Yrs

Brisbane JM 09:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ln 09:41 GMT Thks

pd cumino 09:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane JM 09:35 GMT March 25, 2004
Implied (mid) 12%
Actual 13.98 +/-0.54

gold coast jsh 09:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
whichever way this currencies are going, I wish they would make up their mind about it now so I can go eat

ln 09:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane JM 09:35 GMT. 12.15/12.35

cl krish 09:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Yes ... Cable at 1.8100... hope u had exited from ur trade...NZ

Ldn 09:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc good day, yes i feel this too closed out my shorts aud etc ... is its safe (well as safe as you can get in a sea of sharks ) to go long on some of these Sir thank you.

Brisbane JM 09:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
does anyoe have 3 month AUD vols?

madrid jms 09:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
the key for eurusd is eurjpy, some p/t in eurjpy from 1.2830, we expect new short positions at 1.2900, so eurusd high should be limited

Melbourne DC 09:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC good evening ..
your words would be good news for one kiwi bomber and Jarkarta Jack :)
I remember you said eurusd seen high when price was around 1.29 .. did you know (did the l/t long sellers unload there b'cos ) that 0.8225 to 1.2925 61.8% retracement is at 1.0000? or just coincidence? Thanks and all the best . David.

cairo MDR 09:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
My short GBPCHF from 2.3370 is going great so far...

hong kong nt 09:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
BC -- some non-fans here seems to belittle your muscle...

PAR 09:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Last thing european consumers need is a weaker Euro.

Chicago YM 09:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
What makes you say that BC?

Moscow Konsul 09:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
That`s target for eur/usd today?

Ldn Hat 09:26 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
IMHO shanghai bc 09:23 I doubt that is the case

shanghai bc 09:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

Euru/Usd may have seen the low for today..

Ldn pm 09:20 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Chicago YM - because cable is being currently held back by good size Eur/Gbp buying by a US inv house name - MS - I hear

pj amc 09:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
chicago............it will in due time. it always seems to lag eur a liitle bit

UK 09:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP: Paring Recent Losses - King Imminent - Toyota on Euro

according to IFR

Chicago YM 09:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
why is eur/usd retracing from session lows but cable is not?

hk ab nz 0.6 09:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
some work now, see u all in NY.

sgp sp 09:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dr Q,
Melbourne Qindex 09:09 GMT March 25, 2004
With each explanation, I am getting a better understanding on how to utilise your quantised levels......thanks.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt//stolen the chicken already.

sp// I think it's just a normal retracement. As a matter of fact, once the cheap yen gone, their economy will be gone as well. The good numbers they have recently is the outcome of the artificial selling and depreciation of yen. Once it's gone, the spiral deflation will be blinking up soon.

fx is always the dilema for jap, no matter when it is @105 nor @140.......

GL and GT tonight.

Come on, BOJ your action in jpy crosses are so obvious.

Helsinki iw 09:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
PAR, don´t forget that Bob´s employer pays € 130 in total
to be able to pay Bob the € 100. €30 goes to social insurance
et al. So outlays of €130 results in € 39,50 of consumption,
while the rest goes to keep the system running. No wonder
the economy is running on one cylinder.

Ldn Hat 09:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Shorted more GBP/USD at 1.8155 stop 1.86 target 1.8020 still holding previous shorts from 1.8520/1.8480. IMHO Thanks

Melbourne Qindex 09:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 02:45 GMT - We can generate a new 22-day and 44-day projection every trading day. We will use them to calculate the key quantised levels. If the key quantised levels are concentrated on the low side we would assume the odds are in favour of taking short position and vice versa. On the other hand if the New York closing at 20 GMT is standing in between two key quantised levels, one would assume a range market for that day. The odds are in your favor if you open position around the key quantised level. One should always check the position of my daily cycle's critical point, lower barrier and upper barrier.

Bandung Asti 09:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
longed cable 1.8150 to 1.8215...gl/gt...

PAR 08:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trichet wants european consumers to SPENT, SPENT, SPENT. But when european consumers spent they get TAXED, TAXED, TAXED. European BOB THE BUILDER makes €100 brut. Takes home €50 net. Pays V.A.T. of 21% when he spents. So from €100 earned by our european BOB thru hard work he can spent €39.5 on products the rest goes to TAXES.
BOBs US cousin makes € 100. Takes home € 70 net and pays a 5% sales tax leaving him with €66.5 to spent on products.
Does Trichet really think that lowering EURO interest rates from 2% to 0% will be of great help to european BOB THE BUILDERS who then will only be faced by higher prices and consequently higher TAXES.

Mumbai Mitali 08:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I m going long on pounds at 1.8148. retraced 50% from 1.8540 levels

sgp sp 08:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Mumbai is the commercial capital of India- earlier called Bombay = location of Bollywood

Mumbai Mitali 08:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Mumbai is the commercial capital of India- earlier called Bombay

CAIRO AG 08:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ML... GL with ur cable shorts my friend... u deserve it.

Melbourne Qindex 08:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is negative when the market is trading below the quantised level at 0.7420.

Melbourne Qindex 23:41 GMT March 24, 2004
AUD/USD : The congested area of my daily cycle charts is projected at 0.7379 - 0.7441. The lower barrier is expected at 0.7348 // 0.7378 and the upper barrier is positioning at 0.7439 // 0.7469.


... 0.7226 ... 0.7287 ... 0.7348 // 0.7378 - 0.7408 - 0.7439 // 0.7469 ...


Key quantised levels from my 22-day and 44-day cycles are 0.7348 - 0.7373 - 0.7420.

ICT ML 08:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AG...sorry mate...my charts are down..but I was looking for a possible 191-197 range for a week or so before it heads down again....reason being that would form a RH shoulder on a weekly chart.....

I'm staying clear of it as cable is paying the bills right now...GL though

UK 08:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
April ECB rate cut unlikely, says ABN Amro, as ECB merely suggested risks to economic outlook rather than changing it outright.

St. Louis SAJ 08:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Unken Kat -- ''Mumbai'' is usually, in the West, called ''Bombay''.

sgp sp 08:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab, bearing in mind what shanghai bc had said abt stronger yen for costly oil, do u still see dlr/yen going up?

CAIRO AG 08:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML // Do u agree that if gbpyen breaks TODAY"S low, .... it might show us 200 p at least today as well.... TIA

gold coast jsh 08:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
is there en EU rate announcement today? can't find anything on my calenders, but I'm a little out of the loop right now...tia

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 08:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
where the hech is Mumbai?

SA getFX 08:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable T/L from Feb 19 high lies at about 1.8050 today.

Tallinn viies 08:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
fwiw Hear large option relatet stops at 1,2080 in eurusd

Tallinn viies 08:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MMS: Euribor option trades suggest 50bp ECB move

Mumbai Mitali 08:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
in pound 30 min is oversold, and hourly is coming closer to oversold

Mumbai Mitali 08:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Pound is going higher from the current levels- from 1.8541 it has come down to 1.8155, it should see 8250 figure today

Melbourne DC 08:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber .. FYI
Today"s key UK event risk is the 09:30gmt+ appearance of BoE Governor King and
other MPC members in front of a Treasury Select Committee re: last month"s
quarterly inflation report. --IFR
Good Luck .. . David.

cl krish 08:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Nz Bomber...Can sell cable now and cover at 1.8100

cl krish 08:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Expect a rally in dollar yen from current levels. Any views.....

cl krish 08:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable can come to test 1.8100

ICT ML 08:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber 08:06...cover if you get anywhere near an hourly ema 20...best thing I can tell you....if you are going to hold it that is..

1.8150 is a 61.8 fib of last move...it could move between the 50 and 61.8 between now and NY time...tath gives you 1.8225 as a possible area to unload if it fails to take it back

U.K J.B. 08:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber

I don't ever comment on other peoples positions, but while i am here for a few mins if i can give you some advice. Sorry to hear of your long stg higher up , unfortunately u r now getting caught up with all the talk stg going to 1.75 probably by the same people who only a few weeks ago were talking stg up to 1.95. My advise at current levels which i think look good value leave a stop rev. @ 1.8140 offered and walk away from the screens. Otherwise it will do your head in.

NZ Bomber 08:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Wow..........hopefully the GBP is on the up from now any advice?????????????????

Melbourne DC 08:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML thanks .. i know .. past problems also need to wait till NY b4 response. GL n GT . David.

ICT ML 08:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC...no..I'm blind now except a free hourly chart...I emailed them..they don't work until NY time though

hong kong nt 08:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- dare to steal chicken at 105.9 ?

Melbourne DC 08:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML may i check with you .. is your desktop working yet? mine still down .. TIA.

pj amc 08:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
just went long usd/jpy and usd/gbp both look ready to bounce higher

hk ab nz 0.6 08:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// stole chicken bought dlr/jpy 105.90 on limit.

NZ Bomber 08:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hey ICT ML
Im looking for whats happening in the next 24 hrs.............any ideas

ICT ML 08:03 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 07:53 GMT...scare monger...I like that.....
nobody is going to sell gbp that low....yeah right , that is why I took a blood bath on gbp-jpy when I was optomistically long and it is not going to stop anytime soon....think you'll see 180 within a few months...and cable will be down there too....

but heck..what do I know about trading gbp...LOL

NZ Bomber 08:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Well it looks like (hopefully!!) the GBP may be on the way up...........im still holding in there (just)

Tallinn viies 07:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good morning world
reversed my long top short at 1,2120.
target 1,2065

Ldn 07:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: Rate Cut Threat Weighs On the Euro

Ldn 07:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML I dont think so ... there are views of rate hikes in the wind and nobody is going to sell it that low with that in the air ..dont be such a scare monger

NZ Bomber 07:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cheers guy's.........I will hang in for a while and see what happens....

cl krish 07:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
better to cut loss and then repent

cl krish 07:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
better to cut loss and then repent

ICT ML 07:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber 07:42..if you don't get a strong bounce up off 1.8150 you are screwed. We are looking for 1.7500 now...maybe a stop at 1.8100 to refuel, then 1.7800..etc...

good luck with it

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ldn.
bep = break even point.
0.7411 is yes.

cl krish 07:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Cable has moved below its most important support of 1.8200-1.8250. Negative bias can continue

cl krish 07:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hey .. any idea why cable fell...

NZ Bomber 07:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hey guy's
Help............I went long the GBP/USD @ 1.8258 and it has just dropped........in the hole for 80 pips at the moment!! - any advice?

UK 07:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR Trend Change Eyed IFR

Ldn 07:38 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi

is your target still 7411 ? and what is BEP

Ldn 07:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
BEP ? Radem what is that

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain
I hope you get the eur/usd sell on high position and have exit for your first sell position for BEP only.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:31 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
the clean break of aud/jpy 200 dma is a curse now.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
the turn of eur/chf may have some implication.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// thinking about wether I can steal chicken to buy some dlr/jpy at 105.90 to add to the long at 106.50 last night.

HK Kevin 07:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, I also entered some short NZD at .6552 last night before going to bed.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// watch that early bird.... eur/gbp... never lie......

so, be expected eur rebounds 1-2 session later.

Mumbai Mitali 07:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
i have closed my cable at 1.8185- which i shorted at 1.8253 . Looking to buy the same at 1.8150

San Diego 4xdesk 07:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Looking for a some different forums.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
limit on eur/jpy is 127.55-127.45 depends how fast it goes there.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// the rythm of the aud and nzd are quite good to follow.

Q is what will happen at that .7000-.7150... will it be a big bounce or will it be a big pivot to .68?

hk ab nz 0.6 07:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sp// fwiw, I haven't closed the eur short yet but eyeing the eur/jpy bottom to close it together with the eur/jpy short.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// Martin is quite good on that..... 0.7150...

hong kong nt 07:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 06:46 -- holding short at .7555, any profit on profit obj this week?

hk ab nz 0.6 07:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sayonana eur/jpy.....

Mumbai Mitali 07:03 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
127 levels in eurjpy should hold

SA getFX 06:59 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Pivot levels:
25-Mar-04
eur/usd gbp/usd
1.2553 1.8782 R5
1.2461 1.8664 R4
1.2380 1.8563 R3
1.2298 1.8461 R2
1.2252 1.8402 R1
1.2206 1.8343 P
1.2125 1.8242 S1
1.2043 1.8140 S2
1.1997 1.8081 S3
1.1951 1.8022 S4
1.1788 1.7819 S5 GT

hk ab nz 0.6 06:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ultimate bottom of eur/jpy is not easy to monitor ;)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain 06:23 GMT March 25, 2004
not to worry.
we are on the sell signal for bigger cyclic.
If short term trade not give us prift level soon I change profit target not short term again. 15 minutes and hourly chart still support sell position.
we may hope 1.2095.
sell again here at 1.2150 for second position) but for the first position please exit for BEP only.

Mumbai Mitali 06:49 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi, I feel like shorting pounds at the current levels- 1.8253.

hk ab nz 0.6 06:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// I believe that the operators yesterday are the same group of last week's.

hk ab nz 0.6 06:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nt// I think aud worth much more note than cad.... the cad daily range is even smaller than the aud one soon.. Darn....

Ldn 06:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

Australia's interest rate debate is in flux and the shifting sands need to be monitored closely, especially as the impact on the Australian dollar could be pronounced.

The outlook for interest rates has become mirky in recent weeks, with a small number of investment banks now forecasting a cut before 2004 is over.

If this scenario pans out, the Australian dollar is headed lower, possibly below US$0.7000.
AP


"People are starting to pare back their expectations of interest rate hikes here," said senior ANZ Bank strategist Craig Ferguson.

"The reality is toward the end of the year, the Reserve Bank may actually ease."

Potentially, the Australian dollar could settle into a range of US$0.6500 to US$0.6800, he said.

After touching a seven-year high of US$0.8008 just last month, the local currency has since settled back and was trading around US$0.7440 late on Thursday.

A survey by Dow Jones Newswires conducted earlier this week found that three out of 20 economists expect interest rates to be falling by the end of the year. This is an interesting outcome given that just four months ago the Reserve Bank was tightening interest rates, warning about dangerous and unsustainable trends in the economy.

Short-term debt markets have also largely priced out the chance of a further interest rate hike this year. Further out on the yield curve, prices support the view that the next move by the Reserve Bank will be to cut.

The survey also found that four investment houses expect the official cash rate has peaked this year at 5.25%.

That number has since risen to five with JP Morgan this week abandoning an expectation of one further hike, for a call of "rates on hold."

In other words, nearly half the major investment houses in Australia think the tightening cycle is finished with some looking for an easing soon.

This shift in consensus has been accompanied by growing signals that Australia's housing sector has softened.

Clear downtrends are now apparent in housing investment, finance and new approvals.

The impact of two interest rate increases at the end of 2003 has quickly flowed through to the heavily indebted mortgage belt.

If the cooling of the housing sector develops into a deep chill in coming months, the ranks of those forecasting a cut in interest rates by the end of the year or early 2005 will start to swell.


Rate Differential With US Might Narrow

Australia's differential to the Fed funds rate is currently 4.25%.

In a world of rising geopolitical risk and volatile asset markets it remains a great reason to have Australian dollars on board. But as the year progresses, talk may well switch to narrowing of the differential.

Consider a scenario in the third quarter that has the U.S. Federal Reserve preparing to hike as the effects of record monetary and fiscal stimulus finally kick in.

Meanwhile in Australia, the housing sector has weakened considerably and is dragging down growth, bringing an interest rate cut closer.

The generous interest rate differential fueled the Australian dollar's biggest post-float rally through 2003.

In trade weighted terms, the Aussie climbed 30% and peaked in February at 66.3.

Economic weakness in Australia will become apparent as the year progresses, Ferguson said.

"The housing market is going to continue to come down, so as a result you are going to start to see the Aussie economy start to underperform," he said.

Pressure for a rate cut will be rising.

On the other side of the differential equation, the U.S. Federal Reserve may be looking to raise interest rates in the second half as U.S. labor market data improves, he said.

That could be a factor in play in the second half of the year, Ferguson said.

"You'll have the differential contracting from both sides," he added.

According to strategists at Macquarie Bank, the Australian dollar is likely to end the year at around US$0.7200.

Macquarie expects the fall in the Australian dollar to largely be the product of a U.S. dollar recovery.

Implicit in that thinking is the potential for a stronger U.S. economy and Fed tightening.

"It will only take a few decent (payroll) numbers for people to start saying here we go, and they will look at that side of the equation," one senior trader said.







MTL Cain 06:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi raden, ne view on eur/usd right now? My short [email protected] is still open. Just wondering whether i should take the loss and leave, in case a short-term bull to break the res level @2150. TIA.
GL & GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon

Indonesia bahari2003 05:50 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 05:42 GMT March 25, 2004

hello how are you? how's trading? thankyou for you hsi valuable view. We have trichet on menu tonight at 15.00 gmt at harvard university, do you think eurusd will reach 1.1980 this week? tx

hong kong nt 05:42 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- any idea on usd/cad today? buy dips at 1.335? good trades...

Sydney alimin 05:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hmm looks like some modifications were made to fxtrek chart...i am forced to change browser for it to work, looks like the java applet setting problem

MTL Cain 05:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ne one can give a view on this eur/usd consolidation? when it's going to start its momentum? TIA

brisbane sunstate 05:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Strange movement on cable and eur for the last few hours (or lack thereof) Something's going to break soon it is just whether it is up or down. Anyone care to venture a guess?
gl.gt

hk ab nz 0.6 05:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, wanna be a jpy warrior?

Melbourne DC 05:18 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ML mine also down . fxtrek free charts working though.

hk ab nz 0.6 05:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
jf// u take a break today?
THanks for the tonnes of info yesterday.

Bandung Asti 05:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi all !..

Hi..Brcln "JP" are you there?...sorry about late replied, i was slept last nite (here)...:)) thx for posted. i'll b waiting my mate ! for all of you good luck..n happy trade..! :)

hk ab nz 0.6 05:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
addition of nzd short at .6507.

Sydney alimin 04:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML i got blank grey screen too

Belgrade Knez 04:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

Hi everybody.

Can somebody confirm: Is Tokyo working today?
TIA

ICT ML 04:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Calgary ey 04:41...thanks mate...I got a blank gray screen.....hope my chart library isn't gone now....

hk ab nz 0.6 04:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nzd worth a try at .6507 for martin's ultimate target tomorrow.

Calgary ey 04:41 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 04:27 GMT March 25, 2004
Mine are okay

Indonesia bahari2003 04:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd likely to test 1.2061 as long as resistance 1.2227 hold
IMO

nyc sa 04:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Hi Farmacia , will cable rebound if the 1.81 level is hit ? some analysts see it back to the 1.88 level ,do u concur ? is it possible at all? would u be a buyer around 1.81 ?

ICT ML 04:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Intellichart Desktops down...anyone else?

MTL Cain 04:11 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Thx farmacia for ur reply. GL to u too.

melbourne farmacia 03:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain 03:24 GMT March 25, 2004
Good question, someone else might have better insight than me. Inclined for pullback first @1.2200, having said that, i'm not buying or selling at current level. GT

MTL Cain 03:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Greeting, farmacia:

How's ur view on eur/usd in short-term, will it break 1.2100 today? TIA. GL & GT

melbourne farmacia 03:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
GBP/USD's daily range theory played out well yesterday, RE: 13:41 GMT March 23, 2004. With some luck, gbp could target 1.8102 within the coming sessions. Wednesdays trade took out all my system levels from 1.8517 - 1.8465 - 1.8379 - 1.8326 - 1.8283 and 1.8240. Note current consolidation around 1.8240. As cable loves big daily moves, 1.8102 is real and possible target for today allowing for retracements etc...

Euro / gbp and aussie are currently floating around their respective pressure points.... GT

Melbourne DC 03:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin
perhaps we should swap places :) .. i stay up to trade the european session as Melbourne session can be like watching grass grow esp in my favourite eurgbp (unless you play aud and jpy) . GT. David

Eilat Dolphin 03:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC/ 5 in the morning. But I prefer nightime fx. Quiter, more predictable once the US boys finished hymalaying either slope.
Somehow the recovery modes are clearer to me.

Less risky when Trichet, Greenie or Al zawahiri are asleep,+ I watch movies, read all your posts; and anyway, I never liked swimming in the morning, possibly because of the cuties solar time tables...

Taipei watch 02:56 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Taiwan central bank has ``unlimited'' funds to defend the Taiwan dollar and pledged to keep the currency stable. Taiwan's record $224.8 billion in foreign-currency reserves at the end of February was the world's third-largest.

Taiwan's Perng, Lin Prop Up Stocks, Dollar After Voting Debacle


Melbourne DC 02:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin
from the Red Sea? then you must be addicted to forex trading :)) its around 2 or 3 in the morning for you?
anyway, all the best for your trading . David.

Indonesia bahari2003 02:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
0242 GMT [Dow Jones] FX players to closely monitor ECB Trichet's speech on EUR at Harvard University at 1500 GMT, amid increasing speculation that central bank may cut rates as soon as its governing council meeting next Thursday, writes
UOB; says EUR/USD at risk of testing this year's low of around 1.2050-60, break of which would target 1.1980 initially. EUR/USD last at 1.2133. (RNH)

Eilat Dolphin 02:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC/ Eilat, Red Sea, facing Aqaba ( Laurence of Arabia, remember ?)

UK channel/ I meant to write UK tunnel. But I hate tunnels! especially nowadays.

Ben eyeing to short NZ/CAN...

Melbourne DC 02:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HK ab good morning
Thanks for reply re eurgbp.
Good luck for euraud long .. maybe the eur leg will help as well ie eurusd 1.2060/80 and eurgbp 0.6600/10. Though in m/t if this is process of breeding usd bulls (to be slaughtered later?), then i guess your caution is warranted. All the Best . David.

SG Jay 02:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Do you think we will see 1.2050 today for euro/$ ?

Global-View 02:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

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vancouver maq 02:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 01:39 GMT March 25, 2004

Thanks for your reply, Dr Q. I'll keep studying and learning and hopefully the application of your analysis will become clearer.

sgp sp 02:45 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab, hope u had a good rest

ur eur/usd marching towards your 200 pips target. :)
forget the eur/jpy shorts.....u win some, u lose some. :0
as for aud/nzd....better to have a clearer picture first b4 taking action.

Dr Q, can I say that your quantised levels are like temporary finishing line.....which is what I have in mind. If I take up a short/long, I used the level as a finishing line where once cross, possie is closed or hold to see whether next finishing line is the target or not.
The problem is the time frame....sometimes it is hard to watch your possies going the opposite way, maybe that is why some of the readers here did some Qindex bashing a coupla of days back.
May I assume that ur 22/44 days cycle meant that in 22/44 days.....it will range between these levels? But subjected to mkt momentum of course.....

Thanks again Dr Q......

Melbourne DC 02:43 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin .. Good day (dunno where is Eliat?)
Thanks for the reply, though not sure re UK channel. Good trades . David.

hk ab nz 0.6 02:37 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
martin, thanks for your GREAT work.

hk ab nz 0.6 02:35 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC// No comment on eur/gbp yet but I have slight bias to the downside this time.


for the time being, interested to open new longs on dlr/jpy.

Also, waiting for the big correction in aud to close my eur/aud longs. real worse than my thought.

Gold Coast martin 02:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
HK....ab....i have not had any information or compiled all the analysis to look beyond 6250 which as i posted will materialise by the end of ny session friday...i am doing this research to determine how far the nzd will drop below 6250..i will have all the info before the end of ny session friday....i am doing same for aud....g/l

Ldn Viewer 02:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta Jack sorry to hear .. happens ..been there done that ..
You just got to bounce back ..

Today may buy EUR for bounce to to old support at 1.2180 .. still looking for confirmation ..

If we break lower 1.2050 support and the below 1.2000 again ...

Seems that those who are calling the EUR highs seen for the year are correct ...

Good luck out there .. helmets on ..

Eilat Dolphin 02:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DC/ Hi! I only manage to view very short term using the 1,5,10 min stochs; while trying to surf, follow the 4 Hour stochs central waves (before their borders), preferably if/when they are aligned with the daylies.

So I am clueless, and positionless, especially since AQ does not inform me of their strategies; and that every day, I am amazed to realize that the UK underwater channel is still intact.

Shanghai ht 02:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo: I believe you are right in most case. I sell
aud now, hope we will be lucky. how about its stp/limit.

Melbourne Qindex 02:30 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Melbourne DC 02:29 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 prev 0.66
any thoughts on picking up eurgbp around 0.66 again :))
Good trades . David.

Jakarta JacK 02:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML, please send me more information to [email protected] thanks

MTL Cain 02:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
BOJ board member [FUKUMA] says FX moves are risk factors for Japan"s economy, and BOJ needs to continue easy policy against strong Jpy, but he sees sustainable economic recovery is in sight. He does not see prices will pick up, while he thinks financial system is improving.

As for "exit policy" for quantitative easing, [BOJ FUKUMA] says the bank will judge while continuing its dialogue with the market.

Bodyguard. :)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I love short term trade too now.
use only one minutes chart.
for example now for aud/usd.
sell is good now when at 0.7431

hk ab nz 0.6 02:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
sp// the aud/nzd is still not clear yet.
... see the wild move this morning?

And nzd moves just start again..

martin, just curious to ask can we ask for lower nzd than .6250.

MTL Cain 02:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
To Dr. Q: Thx! I'll try to learn more. :)

To raden: Still hold the breakfast on eur/usd? What's is ur view on it? TIA

To Jack: I doubt you can do ne trade with $800, unless the broker you'r with provides $100 lots.

It's not the end of the world, my friend. I lost much more than 2,000 when I started. You will earn back in future. GL & GT

ICT ML 02:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Jack......I make client that has $10K or less open a mini account....so we can take trades and not dice rolls....might think about that next time around...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:24 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai ht 02:08 GMT March 25, 2004
yes, you are right.
too often cut reverse position yesterday, because do trade when price on the suport or resistant.
if price pass the resistant I think we must know what must we do to adaptation chart behavior. take loss for safe other margin or take profit when cut reverse.

Jakarta JacK 02:23 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Thanks all for the comments, I think I would put a stop on 1.2095, and wait, if good luck, I will try to close at 1.2170 or even 1.2200. if bad luck then.. my equity gone. :(

Melbourne DC 02:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dolphin
any view on dnt 1.2080/1.2680 protecting dip below 1.21 for a bounce to 1.2200/30 ?
Jack .. your equity size only suitable for taking gambles, not trade. Your current gamble looks to me for shorts to cover below 1.21, and bears not aggressive to hunt prices below 1.2050. Maybe allow room for bounce to 1.2200/30. good luck.

Eilat Dolphin 02:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
radem/ Good eyes! Was already out in the low thirties, coz bedtime...

nyc jk 02:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Stockholm za 00:01 GMT March 25, 2004

thanks and very well said. always appreciate your posts, even though I am not smart enough to figure out what you are saying in many of them , lol.

Melbourne Qindex 02:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain 01:54 GMT - The daily market movement can't be fully described by my daily cycle projection. On every Monday and Friday my weekly cycle analysis would exert a good effect on the market. Similarly my monthly cycle would do the same thing at the end/beginning of each month. There are two factors governing the daily cycle, namely sensitivity and sample size. This problem is solved by coupling with current 22-day and 44-day cycle projection in order to make sure that enough historical data are used without giving up the sensitivity.

Ldn 02:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
NZ Central Bk: FX Reserves To Be Increased Significantly
Intervention Will Target Peaks, Troughs

Eilat Dolphin 02:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
jack/ In other words: If we have seen the low of the E for a week or so, your account survives.

But what are the odds we go down another 100 pips from here in the near term ? Possibly eighty %, or around, or even more...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn
aud/usd.
bell is ringing now from sellers.
sell now.

Shanghai ht 02:08 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo: what is your opinion on eru/usd or usd/chf today? yesterday we were wrong.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 02:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Jkarta jack,
with your small equity, please trade for short term to survive.
may you able to built your equity again.
for eur/usd players.
seen price will start down again.
sell now.

Eilat Dolphin 02:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Jack/ Even if you could, the gods of Math are after you, day in and day out.

Jakarta JacK 02:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Thx Cain, it's real account, and yes i wasn't put a stop.
Does anyone know can I trade on AUD with equity only 800?

Melbourne Qindex 02:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 01:52 GMT - Quantised level means discrete level. The market needs to build up enough momentum to move from one level to another level. The analogy is like walking up the stairs. You need enough energy to move from one step to another step.

GER ad 01:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Jakarta JacK 01:40,
Your position look bad for the moment (target 1.2050/60). If you are already 160 pips down and don't want to close the position put a S/L under 1.21 and wait:
Over 1.2140 we may see 1.2170+
Over 1.2180 we may see 1.2210/20 (close here 1/2 position and move S/L to 1.2170).
GT & GL!

Ldn 01:58 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Goldman Sachs:
Increasingly favors JPY (instead of EUR) as preferred vehicle to express its USD-bearish view; while continues to be USD-bearish, says reasons to expect sharp EUR rise aren't as compelling as before - growth disappointed repeatedly, net portfolios weakened and eurozone BBOP surplus disappeared. Adds EUR/USD now quite expensive; says its own "fair value" estimate around 1.1500. Says Japan seems on mend and sustained recovery likely; forecasts EUR/JPY to fall to 123 in 12 months
Reuters.

MTL Cain 01:54 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
To Dr. Q. : Thx. That's what I am doing right now. Here you are talking about daily cycle, am I right? :)

To Jack: I feel sorry for you. You did not put a s/l, didn't u? If I were you, I'd cut here, and try to put more money later and start trading again if you want. Much more money I'd say.

If it's a demo account, then it does not matter anyway.

I'm short euro now, but I'd still wish u g/l & gt.

nyc sa 01:52 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Qindex , could u please explain the meaning of quantized ?

Melbourne Qindex 01:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain 01:39 GMT - Trading between two closely position key quantised levels would provide you the best odds of winning in short term trading.

Jakarta JacK 01:40 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Guy I need you help, Currently I have EUR long position with min 160 pips. if I cut loss now, my equity would be only 800 and not enough to trade eur again. Any suggestion would be very appreciated. -

MTL Cain 01:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Third, here. :)
Also want to know whether Dr. Q will provide short-term signal as well. TIA

GL & GT

Melbourne Qindex 01:39 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
vancouver maq 01:27 GMT - Thank you for your interest in our analysis. We understand that our analysis is not easy to use if one doesn't have a view on the market. This week I have introduced key quantised levels from current 22-day and 44-day cycle and coupling with daily cycle analysis. Hopefully the position of key quantised levels would give good indication on a range/trending market.

pj amc 01:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DR. Q..........I second what Vancouver said.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
wait for second bell ringing for sellers again.
I will inform you ldn.

vancouver maq 01:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Dr. Q

The last couple of months have made me a complete believer in your system. You have helped me recover from losing over half my initial investment to being healthily in the black. Thank-you! I have a couple of questions though. I am only trading minis at present and cannot justify the cost of subscribing to your service at present. When that changes, hopefully in 6 months or so, I would probably subscribe to one currency cross to start. If you could only trade one cross, which one would you pick?

Also, do you offer subscribers any kind of primer on how to best use your analysis? I have been trading for just under a year, and during my free 2 week trial a couple of months ago I felt kind of lost in knowing how to apply it.

TIA

GER ad 01:27 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY
S/L moved to 128.80

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:25 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ldn.
0.7411

Ldn 01:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:02 thank you what is the target for the Aud

hong kong nt 01:17 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ab -- half luck on AUD & NZD, only sell order at .7555 got filled, .6666 no luck...

MTL Cain 01:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:09 GMT March 25, 2004
stop loss maximal 15 pips. risk rewards ratio : 100%

Thanks. I set s/l @ .2150.

GL & GT


Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
better level for sell again when at 1.2134 top loss 15 pips, r/r 100%

GER ad 01:16 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Here is night, too early for breakfast.
My late diner is:
Appetizer: Long EUR/JPY at 128.37 (done)
Entrée: Long EUR/JPY at 128.17 (limit order)
Dessert: Long EUR/JPY at 127.92 (limit order)
Pay the bill: S/L under 127.70 for all
(Possible that Appetizer will be enough)

dc fxq 01:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Even a "falling knife" seems to stabilize and appears to bounce higher as it falls. Beware of teempts to catch a falling knife. They are razor sharp.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:14 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Sorry SNP did not see your post. Looks like we are back in the show buddy talk to you later.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MTL Cain 01:05 GMT March 25, 2004
stop loss maximal 15 pips. risk rewards ratio : 100%

Eilat Dolphin 01:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Happy sunrise, raden. I see the E to be holding, or to the thirties in the following moments.

Melbourne Qindex 01:07 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Gold Coast martin
Thank you, it comes from the heart. Stay humble but hungry. I will be back later. GL GT

Bandung Dewan 01:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Raden,
Are you eating number? Go for real breakfast (food not number)... I'm starving 15 pip...ha ha

MTL Cain 01:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:00 GMT March 25, 2004
second brekfast.

hehe, nice breakfast Raden. May i know ur s/l please? TIA

GL & GT


shanghai bc 01:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

GF 00:09 -- Today's Asian session may be a consolidation market in Eur/usd 1.22-1.21 region after three session rise for the Dollar in a row..Euro is simply weak on all fronts pointing at further decline towards 250 DMA in Eur/usd..

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:04 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
ldn. let's see in 10 minutes.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
With this move the bears take control of the show for at least a while. The daily pennant was finally broken and midterm indicators are pointing south for the moment. Now all we need is a healthy bounce so we can break through to the next retracement, which stands roughly around 1.1980-70. Hopefully the DNT option (1.2050) standing in the way will not give the bears that much trouble. For eur/usd the peak retracement is roughly 1.2200-05, 1.2230-35 and 1.2265-70 IMHO. GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Ldn,
aud/usd
sell now when at 0.7434.
short term trade. now is the top.

pj amc 01:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
I just wanted to say that most of you guys are doing a real good job in helping us newbies out and I just wanted to say that it is much appreciated.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
second brekfast.
sell again at 1.2127 for 1.2110.
now.

Ldn 00:57 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi what do you see for the AUd please

Gold Coast martin 00:55 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MIAMI.....good post....g/l and g/t

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:53 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 00:48 GMT March 25, 2004
I mean profit targte is at 1.2115

Melbourne Qindex 00:51 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The bias is on the downside since both quantised levels at "1.1808 & 1.1962" are well below the current rate of 1.2120.

Melbourne Qindex 00:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : There are only two key quantised level in my current 22-day and 44-day cycle, namely "1.1808 & 1.1962".

Key quantised levels are only useful as a reference today if there is a strong downward trending movement.

Sydney alimin 00:48 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
u mean buy, raden?

pj amc 00:47 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
anyone know the next support for the usd/jpy

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Good to hear that we have some rappers in the house lol. Qindex, when will they ever learn not to doubt your calls? Looks like eur/usd finally found a bottom at the 38% fib retracement of the September move. Now retracement looks like this 1.2210-15, 1.2240-45 and 1.2270-75 with heavy resistance around 1.2290-2300 area IMHO.

This forum serves as an idea checker part of the learning tools you need to survive and after a while you learn about individuals from their comments even if you have never see their faces you some how get an idea of the individuals by his or her comments. It comes a time that you form sort of a friendship as season pass with others in this forum through good times and bad times. You help and in return someone helps you. As an individual it would have taken a lot longer to get ideas but together as a collective (filtering out the jokers and pranksters of course) we form a pretty good team of traders IMHO. Of course there are squabbles once in a while but what good family does not have them. So here is to the family in this forum, LONG LIVE THE FAMILY. GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:46 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
good morning !!
for breakfast, sell eur/usd when at 1,2130 to get 1.2215. short term trade.
now !!

Dublin CK 00:44 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Google'd

"At other times there are dozens of theories that purport to explain Tokyo traffic jams. For instance, everyone supposedly takes to the roads on any date divisible by five (i.e. 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30) and the first and last days of each month. Known as gotobi, these days are apparently ordained by accountants. "

Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : There is only one key quantised level in my current 22-day and 44-day cycle, namely "1.1962".

SYD AD 00:34 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Nobody knows about "gotobi"?

Gen dk 00:33 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gold Coast martin 00:32 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS...Sorry,typo error.....in plain english the aud is heading south slowly but surely....

Gold Coast martin 00:28 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
DALLAS..aud is still long at current levels...it is edging towards nearer the previously posted 7150 range by end of ny trading friday,slowly but SURELY......g/l

Dallas GEP 00:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
MArtin is your view AUSSIE still is good LONG from this levels????

Brisbane L 00:22 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
The language I am referring to is FX talk

Brisbane L 00:21 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Shanghai BC The Forum as you have said should be used to confirm your own views and also I find its nice having other human beings talking the same language even though its only through a PC its better that nothing.

Dallas GEP 00:19 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
AMC, I try to be flat before data but If I am in possie, I may temporarily widen stops to allow for price spurts but NOT beyond what I am normally am willing to do under normal circumstances.

pj amc 00:15 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
gep.............what do you usually do with positions before a report like tomorrows jobless claims?

hk ab nz 0.6 00:13 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:02 GMT March 25, 2004


points taken and concured.

Right now, I am more concerned about the political conflict between China and Japan. I think those Japs have gone too far on the matter.

Gold Coast martin 00:12 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
SHANGHAI...it should be noted that i posted the comment that some very fx heavies do follow and watch this forum for its analysis,that ASSISTS them with their own overall analysis ...pLEASE do NOT confuse the word assist with the word DEPEND....G/L to all

Dallas GEP 00:10 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Took profits on USD/CAD shorts from 1.3411 @ 1.3390. Took profits on other batch of usd/cad shorts from 1.3420 @ 1.3400.

UK GF 00:09 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc just your view please, do you see a pullback for the dollar as its come so far or futher to rise against such as the Euro and AUD etc in Asia time zone trading.it seems everyone is a little unsure where its going thank you.

Stockholm za 00:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc........ lol
Happy trades.......

Dublin CK 00:06 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 00:02 GMT March 25, 2004

Good analysis of the site, some very accurates comments.

Keep up the good work

Micko ta 00:05 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
can someone tell me was 05 paid in the euro tonight?

shanghai bc 00:02 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Good morning..This forum's unique feature is that it represents the real forex world in a small board..On contributors here,we have some mature folks with more than 30 years experience in this business and we have folks who used to work or work in the first division banks or investment houses for years and then, we have folks who are trading because some of his neighbours told him forex is a good business and we have very young folks who are trying to learn their craft too..The real forex world including interbank and fund world and retail world is not much different iin character in fact..Some folks in those worlds are worse than some rude pranksters in this forum too..But anyone who has been in this business for more than a decade will not take this forum or anyone as their trading guide..They will only exchange ideas out of comradeship and revaluate others' views and moves against their own..On whether some good sized traders watch this forum,I know for sure some from Japan and China do from time to time but they have their own channel of info and decision making process to formulate their own trading ideas..

Stockholm za 00:01 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
fwiw…….
nyc jk 13:58 GMT March 24, 2004
&
Sydney gvm 13:52 GMT March 24, 2004

Point well taken.. The international (intercontinental) & The elite underground market movers/makers do not have time, lust, need or even care.. Etc. To look or follow the damage done…(spot wise) ... lol
and my Stockholm za 09:54 GMT March 22, 2004 post has nothing to deal with on that level…..

Their focus is not on candlestick value but on a more complex integration of
Fundamental value
Price value
Time value
Political values
Economical values…etc .etc
Happy trades to you….. Peace & Love

ps. EUR/USD Has hit my Z4-Weekly & Z3-day......

SYD AD 00:00 GMT March 25, 2004 Reply   
Is anybody familiar with the Japanese concept of "gotobi" (dates divisible by 5)? If so, could you please post a brief explanation - including how to correctly use the word. For example, do we say "today is gotobi" or "today is a gotobi day"?

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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