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Forex Forum Archive for 03/28/2004

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St. Louis SAJ 23:52 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
If Trichet and Eichel disagree about cutting ECB rates, will this turn into an Issing contest? (ducking smoothly...)

shanghai bc 23:44 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   

DOR -- Good morning..If you have a stronger Yen,say,at 100-105,it costs that much less to buy all the rising commodities including Oil..That is from overall national point of view..

TelAviv DOR 23:38 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Good morning BC : pls explain your 23:11 , because it looks that if they buy comodities , they have to buy $ first to pay for the comodities , therefore the $ should go up ???? TIA

UK GF 23:28 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
The ECB is preparing the ground for a rate cut, I really believe that says Michael Klawitter, senior currency strategist WestLB London.A cut some time in the second quarter, or even the threat of a cut, could drive the euro down to around $1.1750 by the end of June, with the risks skewed to an even lower rate .

Ldn 23:23 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Strategists at National Australia Bank say the focus is now on US$0.7440 support, with a break of that opening the way to a move back to the US$0.7250 area

UK GF 23:19 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Source at ECB saying bank to decide on rate cut within next 3 meetings DJ wire reports

CAIRO AG 23:16 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Thanks bc.

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:14 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
remove the eur/jpy limit.

doesn't feel good with the current movement. and I need to leave for work.

sp// see if u are lucky enough and mine to collect some pips in aud/nzd.

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:11 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
it becomes a very exciting monday now.

shanghai bc 23:11 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   

AG,AB -- Good morning..Buy Gold on dips and sell Usd/Jyp on bounce as the main play for sometime..Rising commodity prices leave Japan and China with no other option..Good luck..

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:10 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
geez, the eur/jpy left!

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:07 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
good morning bc//

Do you think Japanese willl buy up all the gold after repatriation in Apr? Just like what happened in 2002? TIA.

Nassau QF 23:05 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
tokyo nyan 23:02 GMT March 28, 2004

boulder dat 22:58 GMT March 28, 2004

Thank you for your responses.

UK GF 23:03 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat thanks

CAIRO AG 23:03 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
bc// Hi.... do u think $Y is a good Buy if 105.18 seen...? TIA

boulder dat 23:03 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
the question i have is...
when does Japan, who are down about $50 billion in paper losses due to their massive intervention, bring the yen back to their country. they will be moving about $150 billion back to Japan. that could be disasterous for the yen once they do that.

tokyo nyan 23:02 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Nassau QF

Greenspan recently downplayed the significance of Asian cb"s purchase of US Treasuries, saying their reserves are heavily concentrated in s-term maturities. Also, recent Nikkei Kinyu Daily carried an article saying that the Jpn govt already got enough USDs from interventions to continue to buy US Treasuries through Sep"s presidential election (according the report, Japan limits monthly purchase to prevent its buying from distort the market)

boulder dat 22:58 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Nassua QF...

the effects could be pretty big. without them gobbling up bonds, the price should come off. which means yeilds will go up. the bond market isn't open yet, but it should come off. this could have a positive effect for the dollar with interest rates going up. but, the flip side is that the economy won't have as much "lubericant" to keep it chugging along.

Nassau QF 22:52 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
UK GF 22:21

Thank you for the link.
How is a lack of Japanese buying of US bonds going to affect the US?

shanghai bc 22:52 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   

RC 16:56 -- Where have you been for the last ten years..There has been a fundamental change to the political landscape in Taiwan politics with the emergence of government party which insist on separation of Taiwan from China for the last decade..Those folks even put forward a referendum with separation agenda to the Taiwan public..Mao talked of 100 years to solve Taiwan issue..That was when Chiang Kaishek was runing Taiwan and he was a firm believer of re-unified China one day crushing any separatist movement with iron fist..The only issue between Mainland and Taiwan in those days were about how to do it leaving timing issue at large..That was then and now is now when separatists are gaining strength..What would you do if you were a Nationalist in Taiwan who firmly believes in re-unification of China..Leave those separatists to run wild for "another generation" ?..

tokyo nyan 22:45 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
CAIRO AG thank you, too.
Usd/Jpy appears set to fall further to test MoF"S
"line in the sand' at 105, esp if the N-225 gains more. have a profitable day, everyone!

hk ab nzd 0.6 22:41 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
time to load up some eur/jpy longs limit 127.45 and tight s/l,

Word 22:38 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
And I have found a news site, about Russian economy and the companies, 400 news in day, it is possible to learn about any Russian company, there there are good clauses as they do money, Russian economy.

UK GF 22:35 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Australian building approvals probably fell in February for a fifth straight month after the central bank increased interest rates to a three-year high

tokyo nyan 22:34 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Spotforex NY & Nottingham Daniel
Thank you very much! have a good day ahead!

CAIRO AG 22:32 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
105.31/34 on mine

Nottingham Daniel 22:31 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
tokyo nyan 22:24 GMT March 28, 2004
what USD/JPY low so far today? thank you!

I have 105.2700

Spotforex NY 22:29 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
dollar yen low at this time has been 105.31-34 on my platform

tokyo nyan 22:24 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
what USD/JPY low so far today? thank you!

UK GF 22:21 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Japan ends its £150bn currency intervention as economy firms,,8209-1055228,00.html
BOJ sources inform The Times.

Eilat Dolphin 21:30 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
LDN/ Normally, tomorrow morning around 11:00 local time, Mr. Raffarin should drive up to the Elysée with his letter of resignation.

Then Mr. Chirac will do what he wants to do.

I'd flip the coin toward him accepting the resignation and proposing the job to some Socialist.

It is basically E negative. But since France isn't what she used to be, the effect should be feeble.
Twenty years ago, it meant 2% or more downdraft.

Ldn 21:17 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
ANALYSIS-"Pink wave" puts French economic reform in doubt

Ldn Mvs 20:56 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
PARIS (Reuters) - France's left-wing opposition has crushed President Jacques Chirac's ruling conservatives in a regional election, paving the way for a government reshuffle and raising doubts about the pace of economic reforms....

--> Believe this could well put additional pressure on Euro today...

Ldn 20:55 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
PARIS (AP)--French voters delivered a stinging defeat to President Jacques Chirac's government and its program of painful economic reforms in regional elections Sunday that turned into a national vote of censure.

The left took between 49-50% of the vote and control of 21 out of 23 regions. Chirac's right polled between 37% to 38%, the Interior Ministry announced.

The stunning rebuke, with victories by the opposition left in many regions, will increase pressure on Chirac to reshuffle his conservative government, and perhaps even ditch his prime minister, the unpopular Jean-Pierre Raffarin.

Turnout was high, with around two-thirds of the country's nearly 42 million voters casting ballots, the ministry said.

)toronto Dr Unken Kat 19:23 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
yes nonstop , i have similar view , double bottom plus the cable response was quite powerful at 8000, emas on 5 min r already recrossing , 10 min howeve r still pointing down
we ll see tomm

Safes nonstop 19:04 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Also on hourly, I see a sort of double botom.

Safes nonstop 18:59 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Eur/USD has corrected down, but it has met the 200 MA which is slopped up. Correction could be over for continuation of uptrend.

EZ Rachacha 18:40 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
France fell back into socialism...(Chirac must be eating his hat right now).

HK RC 16:56 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:15 GMT March 27, 2004

"NH -- Chinese are very patient folks..They will be patient till Beijing Olympics is over in 2008 and all the guests are gone home after a party..Then,the time to teach some bad mannered split-mentality kids in Taiwan some good lesson regardless of what others say or do.."

Sir, if I don’t remember wrongly, I thought some former Chinese leadership said before that the cross strait problem is better dealt with by the next generation and not that soon as 2008. The wisdom, I guess, is that by then there should be much less animosity between the two sides and easier to talk. If that is still the case, who’s being impatience…

Va Raven 16:35 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
Fairfax MK, a long time forum member, has a real unique approach to the forex market....... Great mind, MK!

Sofia TNZ 15:02 GMT March 28, 2004 Reply   
earth innocent 14:26 GMT March 28, 2004


guys we have 3 days left to see the first quarter from 2001Q4 with real closing below the openning.

or euro still has enough time to "correct" that :)

GL all this week


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