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Forex Forum Archive for 03/29/2004

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Melbourne Qindex 23:55 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

NYC Jerry 23:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Doubled up the position size with you. Average is 1.3271. Seemed like a good idea. I don't know what to do now.

Melbourne Qindex 23:36 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Dallas GEP 23:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
AB. you are short Aussie from what level???

Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Jerry where are you long from. I forgot

Melbourne Qindex 23:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

Calabash TarHeel 23:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab .6 nzd

Mind if I ask what you think it might do.

TIA, GL,GT

hk ab .6 nzd 23:11 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
with the retreating gold, let's see how much aud will do today.

NYC Jerry 22:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
What I mean is where should we cut our losses, as we both have the same position still. TIA

NYC Jerry 22:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas. I hope you are doing well. I am not so much. I am still long the USD against the Canadian dollar, from last week. What should I do from here?

LDn 22:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
NZD/USD: Kiwi Slumps On Measures To Raise Reserves To $NZ7 bln

Ldn Mvs 22:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
FT reports: The housing market is confounding predictions of a slowdown, with mortgage lending showing the strongest annual rise for at least a decade, according to figures released by the Bank of England on Monday.The data will be reinforced on Tuesday when Britain's biggest building society is expected to revise its forecast of the outlook for house prices. Nationwide is expected to say annual house price inflation this month has been close to the 17.1 per cent rate in February...(end of excerpt)

--> Market is now pricing in MPC rate hike in April meeting as opposed to May initially....cable, expect 1.8050 t/l support on dailies to hold as 100-day m.a held well last week..1.8250/60 next key area to break

Dallas GEP 22:20 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
NYC for now 1.3060 - 1.3100 range but CAD tight now is highly unstable.

Dallas GEP 22:11 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Hello friends, Cable looks heavy to me target 1.8145 with stop above 1.8210.

GVI john 22:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2160…$/yen 105.50
DJIA 10,330 +117 pts…NASDAQ 1,993, +33 pts
10-yr 3.89%, +5 bp’s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:

For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for full text...

Tallinn viies 22:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
finally euro was able to form some kind of bottom on daily chart.
buying the euro is preffered strategy today. stop under 1,2090. target 1,2360.
good night. cu tom

Stockholm za 22:05 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro.........
And to even confuse you some more here is the spectrum for
EUR/USD :- ema 13

12393-12352-z1
12319-12297-z2
12272-12256-z3
12246-12235-z4
12221-12200-z5
12179-12165-z6
12154-12144-z7
12128-12104-z8
12081-12048-z9
12007 = go .............. ........lol
Happy trades to you........

Montréal Taro 21:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB
I don't see how that can help you out. But I'd like to know. Can you send me a exemple of that spreadsheet, and an explanation on how you use it ?
You can Jay for my email.

SF MRZ 20:56 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Eur/$ trigger for upside @ 1.2170, lqqks like it's trying to test it. buy here for very short term play, cut and reverse 1.2130

Ldn 20:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Bank of England policy maker Stephen Nickell said most borrowers can afford the burden of ``rapidly'' growing mortgage debt, signaling the central bank may see room for higher interest rates. ``We must expect mortgage debt to continue rising quite rapidly,'' Nickell said in an interview on British Broadcasting Corp. radio. ``By and large, people with mortgages are able to repay them and are able to cope with the interest payments.'' Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has expressed concern that two interest-rate increases since November haven't slowed consumers' appetite to borrow and spend. Nickell on Friday told reporters in Paris he expects higher interest rates over the next 18 months.
BBC






Saihat 19:59 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
weekly-24-1.2153

may indcate eur not to go up

Saihat 19:55 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
daily -120-1.2153

may indicate eur not to go up

Saihat 19:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
48-1.2131
72-1.2131

may indicate eur not to go down

Saihat 19:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
huorly-eurusd
my indicator
24-1.2109
48-1.2131
72-1.2131
96-1.2208
120-1.2214

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
singapore.
too many stay on the ritical level
difficult to follow.
CU..

singapore lpj 19:25 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
raden... may iask why u say that... im still short both ag the $

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 19:24 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
today is special I think about eur/usd, usd/jpy and gold also gbp/usd.

Nottingham 19:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 19:01 GMT

Nobody can say for sure but with the bulk of the vital data out towards the end of the week, it's unlikely that the euro makes a significant move before then...if it does and heads lower, you can be sure that any disappointments dollar side will be priced in swiftly and violently, particularly Friday's payrolls...for example if ECB turns out to be a non event but euro is trading around 1.20/1.2050 Friday afternoon and we get another payroll disappointment, I'd expect to see 1.22 and probably by 17:00GMT...gl gt

Or 19:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Valdez keep an eye on gold and the aussie. Both will drag euro and cable higher. If aussie closes above 0.75 its an early sign real money yield chasers are back in and time to start selling dollars again at least for the short term. I don't expect 1.29 to be challenged anytime soon but definately 1.25/1.26 an easy target.

Quito Valdez 19:01 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
so most of you guys feel the euro will stay about the same being it's thought ECB won't mess with interest rates now....variable being usd and job reports? What do you guys think about eur/usd at 1.24-12.5 this week?

Chambery FR JFB 18:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro 18:19 GMT March 29, 2004
Sorry for late reply, was out for a while... I use EMAs as "hurdles"/targets, not for entries... And there are plenty more!! I have 40 of them sorted(including current price) into one single spreadsheet, it's amazing to see how price will move up when price is at the bottom of the list and vice versa... This said, I wouldn't enter on that only :-) Out again dinner time :-) GT

pj amc 18:30 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
That is what I meant. The forecasts are again for 200k jobs.

dc fxq 18:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 17:45 GMT

that is minor compared to the Employment SItuation report on Friday.

Nottingham 18:22 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
eurcad testing 200 day sma...failure to hold will result in substatial fall here which will drag both eurusd nad usdcad down...further losses not likely but all three pairs are still not o/s terminally so don't fight if it happens and instead wait for reaction lows...gl gt

Montréal Taro 18:19 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB

With all those EMA,
Can you tell me what exactly are your entry signal ? Is there more than one ?

mex sjs 18:10 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
quito, am in ur site.....

GA TJ 17:56 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ML, JFB

My position is the safe one. Flat. Still trying to get my trading legs under me from a 6 week layoff. My goodies got Euro a little top heavy but not tradable yet. Still watching. Let the GBPJPY slide by do to hesitation around the 191.65 area. The trigger finger is still a weee bit shaky.

Quito Valdez 17:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Mex jsj...donde estas?

pj amc 17:45 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
washington.............you have the jobless claims report this week which is the big one to watch

Tallinn viies 17:43 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I have nothing against money. I love money. bring it out

SEA ROB 17:41 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
dc - if you dont already know, dont trade. I mean this.

washington, d.c. dbn 17:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I'm starting to trade the euro,british pound,sw. franc, and dax. Besides the ECB meeting, consumer confidence, and ppi what news items do you think will have a material impact on these markets this week ? Thanks for your time!!!!

Sofia TNZ 17:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
saratoga, maybe with alerts, LOL
GL GT

Montréal Taro 17:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
JFB
Can you tell me what exactly are your entry signal ? Is there more than one ?

saratoga sam 17:29 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Holy Moving average..How can you see the price with all those lines :)

ICT ML 17:29 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Very good JFB...we shall have a little battle than...LOL
I agree on the short time frames..this was a 4 hr swing signal...could be a dud as well

ICT ML 17:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
OK SZ 17:15 GMT March 29, 2004 You are welcome. Remember its all still a crap shoot until the range bottom gives out on cable....but the potential R/R is very seductive! :-)

Chambery FR JFB 17:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
fwiw again... here are the active EMAs I've got at the moment for Euro :
60ema144 1.2181
60ema89 1.2161
30ema200 1.2149
30ema144 1.2146
Price 1.2145
15ema8 1.2144
5ema34 1.2144
15ema13 1.2143
5ema21 1.2143
30ema8 1.2143
5ema13 1.2141
5ema55 1.2141
5ema8 1.2140
15ema21 1.2139
30ema13 1.2137
60ema55 1.2134
5ema89 1.2134
15ema34 1.2132

GT

Chambery FR JFB 17:24 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML 17:06 GMT March 29, 2004
Hi ML :-) fwiw, had a sell signal on 5 and 15' charts earlier on, am short from 1.2163, and just got a sell signal on 30' @1.2142... have dragged s/l at entry, let's see... Happy trades :-)

ICT ML 17:24 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I put a stop at 1.2109 about a dozen pips below where the 30 and 60 min supporting ema's are. If it gets hit I was wrong.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:22 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ML you have several stops to pick on this pair. The retracement on it is 1.2110-15, 1.2130-35 and 1.2150-55. Support use to be 1.2110-15 now it is 1.2130-35 which is also the 55ma on the 1hr chart. I lost on Fridays long signal but got it back with a sell signal early Sunday. Now I am riding this week signal for all is worth. Good luck to us on this long then.

ICT ML 17:18 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...bingo...I had a buy signal very early LDN time but wasn't here to act onit. Just had a 4 hr confirm the earlier one...so I will risk it...target sounds about right too....4 hr ema50 at 1.2200.

we'll just have to see if this works or not in thin NY time though...

OK SZ 17:15 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ICT, (Marc) thanks very much for your charts you sent..really help out alot..have a good one..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ML very slow day but FWIW I had a buy intraday signal for eur/usd a while back. The signal is getting weaker and running out of time in this slow day for eur/usd. I have a target around 1.2210-2220 with the signal staying alive as long as the 55ma on the 1hr chart can hold as support IMHO. GL GT

ithaca sjm 17:11 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Still short Euro/Cad from 1.6193, moved s/l to 1.6070. L/T target 1.5350 level. Could take a couple of days to take out 200 day sma at 1.5878 if it holds today. Short Aud/Yen @ 78.54, s/l 79.35. Sell more below 78.00 for target of 74.00. Good luck all.

ICT ML 17:06 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Bought some eur-usd at 49 for 1.2200-2325. haven't picked a stop yet

ICT ML 16:58 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
be interesting to see if there is a flurry of eur-usd selling right before 17:00 GMT to kill a potential momentum buy sig on it if closes above 1.2120.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
cad is still short , interesting euro $ , cable $ ema have crossed on 5 & 10 min giving long signal but not swiss

mex sjs 16:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
saihat, sure, i expect it for later on today only....

Livingston nh 16:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Raven- yes - the rules on inflation are always the same - and it is the debtor's best friend (who is the Debtor?)

Stockholm za 16:27 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.....
EUR/USD.....
operational pivot = ~12150
Moment Value = ~12119
Brakedown = ~12095
Next value line = ~11940
ema 8 = on clip
Happy trades.......

Va Raven 16:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
NH, if I read you correct, you are more concerned about the possiblity of global inlaftion than the deflation?

hk ab .6 nzd 16:21 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
the dlr/cad is a big joke.....

added long 1.31.

Livingston nh 16:21 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Va Raven - ECB likely on hold thru '04 - others will do the heavy lifting on rates

Also re: the USD/CAD "pause" looks to be a bit more serious than I thought - acting badly

Saihat 16:20 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
mex sjs 16:11

hi

could i ask

what is your base frame time

Va Raven 16:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
NH, are you saying ECB will sit tight through 04?

mex sjs 16:11 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
i just longed usdchf here at 1.2864 sl 1.2824 tgt above 1.2900...gl & gt

chicago cal 16:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
kiwi may be a nice selling opportunity at these levels

gl,gt

chicago cal 16:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
kiwi may be a nice selling opportunity at these levels

gl,gt

boulder dat 16:06 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nottingham...

i think i may have mispoken. perhaps the market is not looking for the cut in rates this meeting, but instead, they are focused on the press coference that follows. this of course would go in line with what you mentioned about people wanting to be the first ones in.

Livingston nh 16:04 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
The ECB will likely wait as long as EUR stays below 1.28 - the pressure on BoE and even the Fed to hike rates will allow the ECB to take advantage by standing still - ECB knows the fiscal side in EU is not likely to improve if the French election is a valid comment on policy reform - Germany is in the same boat with not much chance of any reform // the expansion of the EU is another reason for ECB to hold back for a few more months

Nottingham 16:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
prague viktor 15:51 GMT

if their focus was purely ecomomic growth then cut should have already been made as you are absolutely right, but whether or not reports of miscalculated inflation data are true, they certainly seem to believe them given their stance...of course they always deny this publically but something clearly has been holding them back (remember the trauma of cutting during the last cycle)...gl gt

Moscow Hawk 15:58 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD looks heavy mid term and despite intraday oversold levels I expect it continues to trend downside soon. For few weeks euro has flirted with my mid term zone 1.20-21 after 1.2300-50 was broken and we got reversal confirmation. So far it has managed to escape a break downside but I have almost no doubts that the zone will be passed eventually and we will see the test of 1.1550-1.1750. The break of 1.20 will be catalyst and will open 1.1880-30 for a test initially.

I do not know have we seen the high for the year in EUR/USD. But from this point it looks like it could be the case. As far as downside is concerned I do not expect that zone 1.1550-1.1750 will be broken from the first attempt. If break of lower border of ascending monthly channel occurs most likely it will take place in July-August.

Good luck

prague viktor 15:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham:life in the EU becoming very hard and noone wana to spend,and this is the real reasonwhy ECB must cat rate,I agree with u maybe it will not be this week,but it will come on may or maximum on jun..IMO

Nottingham 15:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 15:45 GMT

the whole problem, at least in the uk, is that in the large part we no longer have people that can do their jobs properly...this goes not only for analysts but across the whole spectrum (the retail sector seems to be overwhelmed by this disease)

earth innocent 15:47 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
global-view
i need malbourne farmacia email?
mr jay pliz help mee

earth innocent 15:47 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
global-view
i need malbourne farmacia email?
mr jay pliz help mee

boulder dat 15:45 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nottingham...
i'd have to agree. i really don't see the ecb cutting, and have no idea why the market thinks it's almost a done deal. as far as u.s. payrolls, the trend is to be dissapointed. until that trend gets broken, i'll play accordingly.

Nottingham 15:41 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ln 15:33 GMT

I think there a steady flow of sales coming thru on euro thus today's up move has been hindered all the way...the market (wrongly imo) is partially pricing in a rate cut from the ECB this week...I think this is a similar situation to US payrolls, where every month the market gets excited only to be disappointed...it seems that being the first in and at the very bottom is what it's all about for many people...gl gt

ln 15:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 15:37 GMT. cheers pls disregard my posting after your answer.

ln 15:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 15:30 GMT: trying to get handle on investor base. ie has it all been small stuff from specs or are people actually still sitting on $-shorts just waiting for breaks. i feel from what i see is that it is the latter and thus might need more upside on euro and cable before we go lower.

boulder dat 15:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
cftc report showed good short dollar positions already. not sure how good of a base that would be to judge. as far as what i can see in euro for today, i think there may be about five people trading it right now. it doesn't have much of a beat. cable already failed at these levels today. my thinking is, there really shouldn't be too much motivation to buy euro or cable for today with ECB on thursday. this may be a sympathy move for $cad geting stronger.

cairo mdr 15:36 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
closed my gbpchf long with 100 pip profit
going to sell gbpjpy @ 193.10 s 194.10 t 189
and also sell chfjpy @ 82.8 s 83.7 t 80

ln 15:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
trying to get handle on investor base. ie has it all been small stuff from specs or are people actually still sitting on $-shorts just waiting for breaks. i feel from what i see is that it is the latter and thus might need more upside on euro and cable before we go lower.

Plovdiv Gotin 15:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
More interesting if BOJ is out of market.

Plovdiv Gotin 15:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
More interesting if BOJ is out of market.

boulder dat 15:30 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ln... not exactly sure what you are asking. are you trying to find out my size? or the amount that goes through the brokerages i deal with?

ln 15:27 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 15:19 GMT. if you dont mind me asking what is liquidity/size situation in your neck of the woods? very spec where i am.

boulder dat 15:19 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
interesting battle going on in cable. someone sold after we broke the figure down to the 1.8170 level hitting someones buy order. not much follow through with euro though. i'mlooking to short this cable if euro doesn't follow along.

Nottingham 15:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
eurcad will be interesting...could go like stink if 200 day sam taken...you would probably be looking at 1.57 handle today if so...my primary o/s for this one is 1.5804 today...gl gt

Nottingham 15:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
s&p...1121 likely to be as good as it gets today...some scope for pressure higher intraday but close shouldn't end up above that level imo...extrapolating that to forex, dollar should get no more favours from equities from now onwards...gl gt

Nottingham 15:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...approaching conventional o/s levels...historically these have been sufficient to give positive results...begins to be so from 1.3025 down today...gl gt

Ldn Mvs 14:58 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
cheers

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 14:57 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I have shorted gbp and eur ag. usd at 1.8205 and 1.2160.
respectively may the day break! good night everyone and gl and gt.

ln 14:55 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Mvs 14:54 GMT. think there is a bit more flushing to do.

Ldn Mvs 14:54 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ln 14:42 GMT March 29, 2004
here we go...so far so good on gbp there - do u reckon we hv seen high on eur/usd?

WashDC Merry Prankster 14:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
My take is a retest of the ciritcal March 2nd lows around 1.2050 which were touched overnight. If that can be retested and holds then we could potentially see a move back toward March 18th - March 22nd highs in the 1.2420 - 1.2400 range as next serious upside resistance.

IST Sez 14:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ln,
where we go?!!

ln 14:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
WashDC Merry Prankster 14:46 GMT. Is this up or down on euro/$?

WashDC Merry Prankster 14:46 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
My free tip of the day.

Beware of early surges higher in GBP and EUR following a weak overnight Asian session. It happened last week and the week before as well. In both cases we saw what happened to these two ccy's vs USD by weeks end. Looks very much like bores spec's trying to get something going in a news vacuum.

ln 14:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
here we go...

slv sam 14:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
...good idea! thks & GT

IST Sez 14:29 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
slv,sam
frd if your target :1,1260 dont wait for 1,22..
sell eur now as much as poss....

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:23 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
my time range indicator is working now for gbp/usd. LOL

slv sam 14:23 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I am selling the euro at 1.2215 and more at 1.2260 if seen..target 1.1260!GT

ln 14:19 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
looks like one big attempt to wash out stale shorts before we go for new lows on cable and euro.

Tallinn viies 14:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
it looks like buy here with stop under 1,2090...
target 1,2400/10

Tallinn viies 13:57 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
euro needs daily close over 1,2120 to get rid of powerful downpressure...

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Raden Mas.
Thanks I will short at the current levels with tight stop losses.
GL and gt to all.

NYC Jerry 13:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Has anyone seen Dallas GEP here lately? I need some pearls of wisdom on the Canadian dollar.

Nassau QF 13:47 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Info on the Al Q chief who was killed.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:47 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I want to see next candle for 15 minutes chart.
maybe start move down.
gbp/usd

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:43 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa.
although up to 1.8248, my system still say on the sell signal.
better thinking sell than buy because buy only for short term trade.

melbourne farmacia 13:40 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 13:32 GMT March 29, 2004
Do a search within Help Forum.. under options. GT

nyc sa 13:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi all ,Raden or Farmacia ,our cable specialists , cable looks like it wants to resume bull trend , do u have any forecasts ?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:28 GMT March 29, 2004
I think is ok.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
gbp/usd up movement now is like walking on the edge
also eur/usd

pj amc 13:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
melbourne.............I keep reading/hearing about large vanillas. what is it and how does it affect the currency. Thanks

melbourne farmacia 13:28 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Slow day thus far.
fwiw ...Eur/Usd : Large 1.2050 vanilla rolling off at ny cut today... stops building under 1.2040 & 25.... from Thomson

Nairobi, Kenya Jk 13:28 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:23
Am looking to short cable at 1.8180 for 1.8040 and Eursud at 1.2135 for 1.2060. Think I will get a hit?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:23 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
just now about gbp/usd

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 13:22 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
In my indicator.. there will get selling emotion range time from now until 16.00 europe time.

cairo mdr 13:21 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
my gbpchf long from 2.3300 is going well, i am thinking locking the profit although the target is 2.3400

Bkk bounbough 12:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Good evening, well I'm just sticking to Aud trades for now. Short this morning at .7453 looking for a move down to .7370 area from here. Amen

GVI john 12:30 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2115…$/yen 105.70
DJIA +53 pts… 10-yr 3.86%, +2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
The Times Online story about a halt to the massive forex intervention policy of Japan was just a confirmation of what the markets had already surmised. We do wonder why the Bank of Japan was the source for the report and not the Ministry of Finance, as it is MOF that sets forex policy, not the BOJ. We already have seen reports of intervention today at the 105.25-30 level. If the story is accurate, it may have made better sense to keep the markets guessing, but where there is smoke, there’s fire. We certainly expect smoothing operations to continue, but massive intervention is probably something of the past. We will see. Actions speak louder than words.

Keep in mind also the Quarterly Tankan report is due on Thursday. The main diffusion index is seen at about 10 after December’s 7. A strong report will reinforce expectations that intervention policy has indeed changed. Nevertheless, the Nikkei made a new high for the move before closing lower and JGB prices fell sharply again.

Don’t overlook the impact of reduced BOJ purchases of U.S. treasuries on U.S. bond markets. One other issue, OPEC meets this week to discuss April 1 production cuts. It seems that this widely predicted production glut has not materialized.

We remain on central bank watch with the ECB meeting on Thursday another highlight this week. One survey of economists last week said that 29 of 30 expect no rate change. Looking at the short term credit markets they put the odds at about 70% against a move. Nevertheless, I sense forex traders are putting higher odds on a move that the money markets and economists.

In the U.K., rates continue to creep higher a couple more basis points with every passing day. The upward move has been inexorable. I’ve never seen such a steady daily move higher. One month euro sterling at 4.23% now suggests virtually 100% odds on a rate hike on April 8. Three month money at 4.37% today suggests about 50% odds on a second 25bp hike within the next three months. The major surprise here would be no rate hike next week.

The final major event this week will be March U.S. employment report on Friday. Consensus forecasts center around an increase in jobs of about 120,000. Part of the increase will be 70,000 striking supermarket workers who returned to their jobs in Los Angeles after an extended walk out. Take 70K from +120K and +50K is nothing to write home about. It seems that every month the markets get all hopped about a better than expected report in the week heading into the data. Don’t be surprised if this happens again this time.

No key data are slated for today. Note that the clocks in Europe and the U.K. advanced one hour over the weekend and Australia moved back. The U.S. and Canada spring forward next weekend.

CALENDAR

MONDAY, MARCH 29, 2004
No Key Data Scheduled

TUESDAY, MARCH 30, 2004
23:30 GMT- JPN- February Unemployment, vs. 5.0%
23:30 GMT- JPN- Industrial Output (prelim), vs. +3.4%
01:30 GMT- AUS- February Building Approvals. -3.3% m/m
01:30 GMT- AUS- February Trade Balance, vs. –A$2.0bln
15:00 GMT- US- Mar CB Consumer Confidence: vs. 87.3 in Feb, see 87.1

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 31, 2004
BOJ Quarterly Business Survey
01:30 GMT- AUS- February Retail Trade, vs. +0.7%
08:45 GMT- FRA- Feb Unemployment Rate: vs. 9.6% in Jan
12:00 GMT- EUR- Mar preliminary CPI: vs. +1.6% in Feb
12:00 GMT- EUR- Mar Business Sentiment: vs. -6 in Feb
12:00 GMT- EUR- Mar Consumer Sentiment: vs. -14 in Feb
12:00 GMT- UK- Mar CBI Distributive Trades Survey
12:00 GMT- US- MBA Mortgage Finance Index
13:30 GMT- CDA- January GDP, vs. +0.5%
13:30 GMT- CDA- February Industrial Product Prices, vs. +0.4%
14:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories
15:00 GMT- US- Feb Factory Orders: vs. -0.5% in Jan
15:00 GMT- US- Mar Chicago PMI: vs. 61.4 in Feb

THURSDAY APRIL 1, 2004
23:30 GMT- AUS- March PMI
23:30 GMT- AUS- Feb Qtr Job Vacancies, vs. +1.2% Nov Qtr
23:50 GMT- JPN- BOJ Tankan, vs. +7
10:00 GMT- EUR- Mar PMI: vs. 52.5 in Feb
10:30 GMT- UK- Mar PMI: vs. 53.2 in Feb
12:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Unemployment Rate: vs. 8.8% in Jan
12:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US-Mar ISM PMI: vs. 61.4 in Feb, see 60.0

FRIDAY, APRIL 2, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- March Monetary Base
23:50 GMT- JPN- April Money Market forecast
12:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Producer Prices: vs. +0.2% in Jan
13:30 GMT- US- Mar Employment report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +21,000 in Feb, see +120,000
Unemployment rate: vs. 5.6% in Feb, see 5.6

london 12:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd dailies--Consolidation below neckline for past four weeks of that odd ball shaped SHS(small head/big shoulders) could be Euro bullish for medium term players, maybe bc have some of his big guns loaded up from down here to help along...


Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 12:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd will test high 1.2151?

Stockholm za 12:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
fwiw......
[email protected]
ema 5 intact...
ema 21 cross 144 in asia..
Today focus = ema 55 & 89 crossing..
ema 233 given......
Happy trading Week........

RO rok 12:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
time test

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:45 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
KL KL
sell area is 1.8247-65

Rivonia PipPirate 11:43 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:35 GMT It says you must have ba££$ to do that.

Bahawalpur Imran 11:40 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
any idea about USD/JPY?

Haifa ac 11:35 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 09:25 GMT// What does the penal code of Cambodia have to say about this?!

Dublin CK 11:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Morning folks,

Are the posts slow today or is the time on the GMT clock wrong?

Roumeli aek 11:25 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Again from "Merlin"
http://www.chartsedge.com/g032804.gif

KL KL 11:24 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Raden, see any more up on gbpusd? Good level to short pound now at 1.815-7x? What is your view

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 11:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
seen eur/usd will move down from high today at 1.2143.
on the down signal.

LHR B747 10:49 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
After taking a close look into history, I could not find FACTS about an economical BOOM after elections.
It takes 1.5-2.5 years to have a real economical improvement after elections.

IMO

hong kong nt 10:45 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ab -- sorry, no update on c9 index today, "divorce in progress" this afternoon...

hk ab nz 0.6 10:29 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
need to leave now, talk later.

Sin HS 10:20 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
is it good idea to sell gbp now?

Ldn Mvs 10:10 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Wire report just out:

EU Says Weak Consumer Spending Main Danger To Recovery
"Surge In World Demand" Offsets Strong Currency
Euro "Only Slightly Above Its Long-Term Value"
Says "Recovery On Track" Despite Strong Euro

hk ab nz 0.6 10:02 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
enter small one 1.5583.

hk ab nz 0.6 10:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
anyone want to short eur/chf here?

hk ab nz 0.6 10:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
anyone want to short eur/chf here?

shanghai bc 10:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   

Yes,I noticed Wim was a newly converted Maoist from his new hairstyle..

Eilat Dolphin 09:56 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
bc/ the suitcase possibly full of unsold Mao's Red Books ;^)

shanghai bc 09:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   

Could that suitcase be the one left over by Wim by absent-mindedness when he left ECB building sometime ago ?..

cairo mdr 09:52 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
EurUSD: The currecny survived the test of the 2060 trough and should make a bid for 1.2200 reistance later in the day. longs maybe intiated at 2115 but it is more compelling if we see 2085.
buy 2085 sl 2040 t 2200

Eilat Dolphin 09:52 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
30 minutes ago from Haaretz: Euro HQ in Brussels evacuated after abandoned suitcase in adjacent street.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
gvm, he just talked his book :0

Sydney gvm 09:49 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
woops Rick just saw your 129 euro comment - understood

Sydney gvm 09:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
perth rick are you a dollar bear or bull on that last comment?

hk ab nz 0.6 09:47 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nt// how's the c9 index today?

hk ab nz 0.6 09:46 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
one more lesson of plan the trade and trade the plan.....;)
eur/jpy .......

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 09:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hey.. be carefull gbp/usd when touch 1.8152.
maybe down

perth rick 09:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
another big blow for the dollar in the making...sentiment will change soon.

Nottingham 09:30 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 09:26 GMT

a certain financial institution to cut a long story short will need to hedge client positions if this pair looks like closing above 106, so a move above this figure may spark some followthru buying...gl gt

perth rick 09:28 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
eur (1.2115) gbp (1.8135) my strategy is to accumulate these ccys for 1.28 and 1.91+ gl to me.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
cleanly, yen is pushed up hard today.......
but how many bricks can it climb.......

Nottingham Daniel 09:25 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I know this nothing to do with trading - but I thought may be of interest - if anyone here has the same thoughts!

PHNOM PENH (Reuters) - A Cambodian man cut off his penis when he said he was visited by four hungry spirits in a dream and he had no chicken or duck to offer them.
http://reuters.uk.ed10.net/t/GDQT8/7A5S2/50/2VDCK

Barcelona JP 09:20 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz

No, no, you can do it. But at the right moment.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
bc// thanks. I will not short eur today.

Barcelona JP 09:10 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 08:31 GMT March 29, 2004
Back to TA:

Very risky to short eur/usd while usd/chf keeps bellow 1.2915.

Well, I could've not said it better.

Ldn 08:52 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Deutsche Bank has changed its view and now expects a 25bp cut in ECB's refi rate within next three policy meetings. Says a cut on April 1 is a "distinct possibility." But believes ECB may want to wait for more information, which makes May or June other likely dates

cairo mdr 08:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
for sure new castle.

Newcastle GH 08:47 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
cairo mdr

Last week you posted something which may be of help in the help forum. Is it OK to ask Jay for your email to recive that?

cairo mdr 08:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I bought gbpchf @ 2.3290 sl 2.3255 T 2.3400
and also eurochf @ 1.5530 sl 1.5460 T 1.5700

shanghai bc 08:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Hope you are getting London session bias..

SA ahg 08:38 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
08:30 UK ECON: Feb Consumer Credit GBP 1.7bn, from GBP 2.0bn in Jan

Gen dk 08:36 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL KL 08:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
What was that spike in GBPusd...or is it my systems playing up.....

Barcelona JP 08:31 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Back to TA:

Very risky to short eur/usd while usd/chf keeps bellow 1.2915.

Barcelona JP 08:29 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery:

Yeah, man!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You are a big trader. I'm a small one: a nanotrader.

Chambery FR JFB 08:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 08:22 GMT March 29, 2004
no problem... it's loooonnngggg way... lol

Chambery FR JFB 08:25 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 08:13 GMT March 29, 2004
"CHAMBERY: My goal is 10 pips each day at least. That's why I always lock 10 when I have 25 and 25 when I have 50."

JP, am not saying it's a bad habit, just thinking that there might (might only :-) be better combination... As stated before, I usually buy/sell 5 (or multiple of 5) lots, with a limit at 25/50/75/100 pips, the last one being open, and I move the s/l @ entry on the 4 last lots as soon as the firt 25 pips are booked on the first lot, then move it every time +25 pips profit is seen... That is only empirical right now, it works OK (with all TF, but the best is 30' for me), am trying to improve it... just like everybody here :-) GT

sydney fg 08:22 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
chambery, email coming your way!

Barcelona JP 08:17 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL

Hi, OMIL!!!!
If I day trade, fundamentals does not matter for me at all.
If I take a long time possie (I do not do it), I should to take into account fundamentals as well as TA.

I knew that of the options barrier, but what I know more is the heavy support euro has at that level.

Of course, our goal should be the same: make money!!

Chambery FR JFB 08:15 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sydney fg 08:11 GMT March 29, 2004
Hi fg, I do backtest with XL and a few VBA code lines :-)

Barcelona JP 08:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 08:06 GMT March 29, 2004
Barcelona JP 07:51 GMT March 29, 2004
JP, I am currently backtesting a system like the one you describe here (lock x pips when y pips profit is seen), I'll let you know the results when it's done :-)

CHAMBERY: My goal is 10 pips each day at least. That's why I always lock 10 when I have 25 and 25 when I have 50.
If I'm monitoring the trade, I can let it go if the movement makes me confident or square it.

sydney fg 08:11 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB,
fwiw on 5 min data i also use x pips. have tried MA's but usually exit too early or late. have found that once price retraces x pips, move is over. good luck with it.
out of interest, what u using to backtest?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:09 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
How are you JP I hope you had a good weekend. You have a different style of trading than I do but the end result has to be the same to win more than you loose. I believe you did take fundamentals into account when you measured your exit point with the option barrier. The idea is to trade a system that you are comfortable with and wins. GL GT

Chambery FR JFB 08:06 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona JP 07:51 GMT March 29, 2004
JP, I am currently backtesting a system like the one you describe here (lock x pips when y pips profit is seen), I'll let you know the results when it's done :-)

Barcelona JP 08:05 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
And now, with all this whipsaw, I'm not going to trade unless it breaks 1.2047 clearly or jumps above 1.2129.

Chambery FR JFB 08:02 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Thx JP, OMIL... What I measure is bpips, I definitely layer my positions and make more "real" pips...

OK... my best TF : 30'... On that one, I have 91% of positive trades, thus the s/l position is not really that important in my potential/made pips counting, it's more the winning trades exits that I have to focus on...

Thanks again for your comments, they surely help :-)

Barcelona JP 08:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:50 GMT March 29, 2004
JFB in my way of thinking it depends on what you are willing to risk every time you enter and that is how I measure the exit. For example if I am willing to loose 40 pips then I have to make 120 pips on that particular entry. The stop loss is what dictates my exit points generally. You have to take into account the fundamentals that can change the course of the market too IMHO. GL GT

Sorry, OMIL, in my short eur/usd possie I didn't take into account any fundamentals at all: ONLY TA. ONLY.
It's well known that we have a barrier at 1.2054-50.
TF 5 min: price bellow 55 EMA and 120 EMA. And my shorter EMAs crossed as well.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:54 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
JFB remember layering your positions can add to your total pips. For example if you layer every 40 pips an 80-pip move becomes 120 pips. There are countless combinations you can use to achieve your goals IMHO.

Barcelona JP 07:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
My TF is 5 min.

I use to lock 10 when I have 25.

GER ad 07:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD,
S/L moved to 1.2082

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
JFB in my way of thinking it depends on what you are willing to risk every time you enter and that is how I measure the exit. For example if I am willing to loose 40 pips then I have to make 120 pips on that particular entry. The stop loss is what dictates my exit points generally. You have to take into account the fundamentals that can change the course of the market too IMHO. GL GT

UK 07:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp I have lived with this for the past 40years so I am aware

Barcelona JP 07:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB

If this may help you:

I've shorted eur/usd at 1,2081 (00:50 east).
s/l: 1.2110
Target: 1.2050.
(01:31 east) closed at 1.2050.
+31 pips.

sgp sp 07:46 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
UK 07:37 GMT March 29, 2004, GMT = Greenwich Mean Time = 0.

Time is other parts of the world would be based on the time zones away from GMT.....either +/- and daylight savings for summer and winter.

As for forum, with ppl from all parts of the world....GMT would be the best all round as they can calculate their own time based on universal GMT.

Hope I explained this properly. Here's a useful link for time zones in other parts of the world......

http://www.worldtimeserver.com/

Chambery FR JFB 07:45 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:38 GMT March 29, 2004
Thx... Sure had a good w/e... hope you had one too :-) I surely agree it all depends on timeframes... <30% on 15' chart, 57.6% on 30' chart... the question is : do I have to work on my exit points (the answer is yes of course :-), but can I expect to drastically improve my results...? or are my ratio in the average...
GT :-)

Sydney alimin 07:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
looks like aud/usd is struggling to break 0.7440 convincingly at the moment, but when it does...well u know what will happen :)
gl gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
That is for intraday signals only.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:38 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Chambery FR JFB 07:30 GMT March 29, 2004
Hope you had a good weekend. It all depends on the time and the signal I look for 40-120 pips on each entry.

UK 07:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
The time changes to BST and the GMT is constant never changes. UK put the clocks on one hour and Back in the winter (back to GMT) this right

shanghai bc 07:31 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   

NT 05:00 -- Good afternoon..You are a better range trader than me..Expecting 1.90 to be traded a few more days too..Good trades..

Chambery FR JFB 07:30 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi all, just a simple question... With the system I use for Euro, I trace how many pips max the signals are generating, and the number of pips I actually make...(assuming of course that I never exit at the best time). The ratio is close to 40%... Just curious about what you guys are doing in term of potential/captured pips after a signal is triggered... TIA

Happy trades :-)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:28 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
london tony.
that's only option alternative.
good luck !! :-)

london tony 07:25 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi
best trade
do against u

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:22 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
29 MARCH 2004

EUR/USD when at 1.2090
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up trend signal to get target 1.3119
Good level entry : 1.2155 – 1.1754 – 1.1406
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down signal to get target 1.1826
Good level entry : 1.2255 - 1.2389 – 1.2629
· Hourly Candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.2006
Good level entry : 1.2123 – 1.2143/54 - 1.2232
GBP/USD when at 1.8113
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up signal to get 1.9421
Good level entry : 1.7844 – 1.6492
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down trend to get minimum 1.7754 or 1.7324
Good level entry : 1.8412
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.7938
Good level entry : 1.8139/52 – 1.8265
USD/CHF when at 1.2865
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.1978
Good level entry : 1.2968 – 1.3170 – 1.3574
· Daily candle formation
Still on the up signal to get 1.3333
Good level entry : 1.2727 – 1.2668 – 1.2453
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the up signal to get 1.3010
Good level entry : 1.2819 – 1.2804 – 1.2777
AUD/USD when at 0.7446
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up trend to get 0.8236
Good level entry : 0.7371 – 0.7029 – 0.6696
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 0.7195
Good level entry : 0.7540 – 0.7660
· Hourly candle formation
Still on down signal to get 0.7295
Good level entry : 0.7478 – 0.7449
USD/JPY when at 105.60
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 96.84
Good level entry : 108.72 -114.32
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down signa;l to get 103.24
Good level entry : 107.06 – 108.72
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 103.24
Good level entry : 105.72 – 105.93


My best regards,
Raden Mas

GER ad 07:19 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
London 07:10 GMT March 29, 2004
They are correct, there is no Summer Time in GMT
CET= GMT +1 (Standard time)
CET= GMT +2 (Summer Time)

Chambery FR JFB 07:15 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sorry... meant 7:15 of course :-)

Chambery FR JFB 07:15 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
London 07:10 GMT March 29, 2004
Hi London, didn't you change your time for summertime last Saturday, like the rest of Europe? :-) Here it's 9:15am, thus 7:10 GMT...

sgp sp 07:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
London 07:10 GMT March 29, 2004, I don't think so....it is GMT here whereas northern hemisphere had changed to daylight savings on Sat or Sun.....+1.

UK 07:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Clocks go on but GMT stays the same

London 07:10 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Isn't it 8:08 GMT now?
i think global-view clock goes wrong

Melbourne Qindex 07:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sgp sp 07:05 GMT - You are welcome.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 07:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon friends.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sp// I have a pretty deep pocket for those eur/aud longs, no worry.

I think I will soon take my profit on dlr/chf.

sgp sp 07:05 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon ab, I have moved my s/l to BE already....anyway, the possie is a small one....have aud/usd short avg 0.7438 and not too sure whether to put up a limit eur/usd short at 1.2121 and 1.2096....

still holding ur eur/aud longs?

Dr Q....thanks for posting here.....ur generosity is much appreciated. :)

hk ab nz 0.6 06:59 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
qindex// that's already v. kind of you.
sp// keep an eye on your aud/nzd longs... :)

GER ad 06:58 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I don't think that we will break 1.20 until Wednesday evening so I longed EUR/USD at 1.2052 and hopping for 1.22

hk ab nz 0.6 06:57 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
dlrchf might be running towards 1.3116.

Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 06:46 GMT - Good afternoon! There is no guarantee for anything. Sometimes the market follow the odds and sometimes the market has its own mind.

hk ab nz 0.6 06:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
did we just see an eur/jpy intervention actually?

Ldn 06:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Market "firmly" expecting an ECB rate cut, say Commerzbank forex analysts, add EUR/USD outlook negative after breaking 1.22-1.24 band last week, now targeting 1.2050, 1.18. Favors short EUR positions vs JPY, USD

hk ab nz 0.6 06:46 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Qindex// I now know why your subscribers complained ;)

Thanks for the generous help on us poor fishes.....

Melbourne Qindex 06:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT March 29, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is shifted down to 1.1954 - 1.2088. After expansion of the range :-


... 1.1920 // 1.1954* - 1.1988 - 1.2021 - 1.2055 - 1.2088* // 1.2121 ...


Melbourne Qindex 10:10 GMT March 20, 2004
EUR/USD : Heading Towards 1.1686?


The distribution profile of my 22-day cycle (19/03) probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 1.1686 - 1.2356. On the way to 1.1686 there are 3 major barrier, namely 1.2222, 1.2088 and 1.1954, for the market to tackle. Other cycle analyses will be used to closely monitor the situation.

hk ab nz 0.6 06:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
there should be some immediate trigger....

hk ab nz 0.6 06:37 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hm.. eur goes straight to the option barrier....

SLO Marko 06:36 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
1.2050 was an option barrier... that was magnet!

hk ab nz 0.6 06:35 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
why eur moved that fast? any trigger?

hk ab nz 0.6 06:34 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
wow, watch that eur/jpy!

Sofia TNZ 06:18 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Good morning guys

hk ab nz 0.6 06:12 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nt// thanks.

I withdrew the eur/jpy 127.45 limit, not feeling good with the current movement.

perrie como 06:11 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
yen to drop soon...

usd/jpy might easily test 96 in april

g/l

l.a. 06:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
www.hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com is a good u.s. stock site...any1 have a good u.k. commodity site?

hong kong nt 06:06 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
AB -- unless GBPJPY breaks 190, i guess we may see a consolidation within 190-194 this week with downside bias, similar view on EURJPY...

hk ab nz 0.6 05:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nt// what's your view on eur/jpy 127.45 support? the 10 week sma.

hk ab nz 0.6 05:34 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
eur/chf worth a look, I am thinking about a possibility to return to 1.5

hk ab nz 0.6 05:34 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
new position only included eurgbp long on limit .6675.

hk ab nz 0.6 05:33 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
nt// interested in dlr/cad long today?

my limit missed by 10 pips......
1.3155.

Melbourne Qindex 05:31 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:43 GMT March 29, 2004
EUR/AUD : Key quantised levels from my 22-day and 44-day cycles are 1.5890 - 1.6026 - 1.6505 - 1.6671. The current expected trading ranges from my 22-day cycle is 1.6044 - 1.6199 - 1.6353.


Melbourne Qindex 05:24 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:43 GMT March 29, 2004
EUR/AUD : Key quantised levels from my 22-day and 44-day cycles are 1.5890 - 1.6026 - 1.6505 - 1.6671. The current expecte trading ranges from my 22-day cycle is 1.6044 - 1.6199 - 1.6353.

hong kong nt 05:00 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you think it is likely to see GBPJPY trading within 190-194 in next 2-3 days?

hk ab nz 0.6 04:56 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
the weekly sma 10 seem can't help eur/jpy any more....

boulder dat 04:31 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sin HS...

click here

Ldn 04:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Confidence among Australian farmers in the nation's agricultural economy has slipped to its lowest level for more than a year, undermined mostly by the impact of a stronger Australian currency, according to a quarterly survey issued Monday by Rabobank Australia

Ldn 04:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Confidence among Australian farmers in the nation's agricultural economy has slipped to its lowest level for more than a year, undermined mostly by the impact of a stronger Australian currency, according to a quarterly survey issued Monday by Rabobank Australia

Ldn 04:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Confidence among Australian farmers in the nation's agricultural economy has slipped to its lowest level for more than a year, undermined mostly by the impact of a stronger Australian currency, according to a quarterly survey issued Monday by Rabobank Australia

Melbourne Qindex 04:19 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY : I like to see 77.37 - 78.14 trading range soon.

Ldn 04:15 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Large 0.7450 Option Expiry Hemming In Price Action on Aud

Sin HS 04:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
May I ask when is oz building app data out and mkt expectation? Thank you.

melbourne farmacia 04:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL - my personal firewall ( my girlfriend ) will dump pics, so u better not send .. LOL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:09 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
ML I am sending you a naked picture of gbp/usd’s daily chart that will probably turn you on even more. Thanks for the email, weekly and monthly charts show me this is still a correction and actual trend is still bullish. So far in my weekly chart the 20ma is acting as support then we have the 38% fibo retracement line around 1.7775-1.7800 IMHO.

vancouver Thrakos 04:03 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Hello Forexers,
I am new to this forum, I see alot of great posts and I hope that I will be usefull to the rest of you as well.

Singapore Sfx 03:57 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Tanigaki says Times report speculative , no change in intervention policy... Reuters 03.56

ICT ML 03:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...yo can just send Pauls copy to me...haha

Gold Coast martin 03:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
hk ..i have said this since early last week.....its a big call but it has been on the cards for the last week or so..the only variable that has delayed the ineviteble have been terrorist attacks and geopolitical fears....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Ooops Farmacia I better cancel sending you the latest spring break swimwear contest pictures we have here lol. GT

melbourne farmacia 03:46 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Marc ..it was you .. and thanks

ICT ML 03:45 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
sorry farmacia.......forgot to zip it...

melbourne farmacia 03:40 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
If someone's currently sending me a email... it better be good !
After 15 mins, mail still downloading... lol.

HKG SK 03:24 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Goldcast martin
You are thinking of 300 pips down for Aud by tomorrow.

Ldn 03:18 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
French Move To The Left Could Weigh On EUR/USD

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:13 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I hope so ML I am short right now on eur/usd but I don’t know if this bear move has much left in it hope you had a good weekend.

ICT ML 03:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...I think they will go after that option barrier full bore today...just a hunch....looking to buy a bounce off 1.1800 in a few days if all goes well.....

Heres to a good week for all ;->

bahdad Dr Unken Kat 03:06 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
wow ! euro-yen hit the trendline on daily

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:02 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
SK, FWIW I have a sell signal for intraday position on eur/usd but it all depends on how much they are willing to defend this option I am sure we will see more moves when Europe wakes up and that will tells us the tempo for the start of this week.

HKG SK 02:58 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks OMIL
Triple bottom seems to have formed.

Gold Coast martin 02:56 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
HK ..ab...the aud need to break the 7440 barrier in order to resume its downward bias towards 7150 by the end of trading tuesday....this barrier i expect will be broken by the end of australian session today.....the nzd has fallen gradually and we will see 62 by end of business tuesday.....it is worth noting that spot gold is at its peak and will fall to the 408 range within next 2 days.....g/l g/t

Miami OMIL (/;-> 02:50 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
HKG SK 02:41 GMT March 29, 2004
There is an option that is supposed to be here at 1.2050 till April 6 and it should be defended. 3-2-04, 3-25-04 and today has been the only days I have in my chart as coming close to the option area IMHO. GL GT

Melbourne Qindex 02:48 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Bahawalpur Imran 02:43 GMT - Thank you for your interest in our analysis. Add dot com to qindex and you will find my site. The best deal of our service is to go through Global-View.com. Send an e-mail to Jay at [email protected] and he will arrange you to see my page. The first two weeks are free.

Bahawalpur Imran 02:43 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Mr Qindex How i can suscribe for ur comments whats ur site?

HKG SK 02:41 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Could anyone tell me how many times has the Euro tested the 1.2067 for the passed week or so???

MTL Cain 02:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Hi Rafe,

THX a lot 4 ur post on the res/sup positions. Can u also post the Eur/GBP's for today? TIA. GL & GT

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:29 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2144 1.2158 1.2176 1.2190 1.2204 1.2222 1.2251
LOWER BANDS 1.2115 1.2101 1.2083 1.2069 1.2055 1.2037 1.2008

CARDIFF-PEKING lee 02:23 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
usa,i mean eur will break the lower support

usa tom 02:17 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
lee, by "break the downtrend" do you mean it will break the support lower or start going higher? TIA.

hk ooozmeeh 02:16 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
BC... got ur point...thnks a lot..gl/gt

hk ab nz 0.6 02:14 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
martin, any view on commodities today?

CARDIFF-PEKING lee 02:08 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
we might see eur downtrend break today

Gen dk 02:07 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

boulder dat 02:04 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
getting ready to buy some euro here. the options defenders at these levels have been able to keeo euro up pretty nicely. also, you can usually fade activity like this on an early monday morning tokyo session.

UK 02:02 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
NAB says building approvals could be key for Australian government bonds: "A fifth consecutive monthly decline in building approvals, as the market expects, would likely see the market begin to edge further toward the possibility of RBA cuts late in 2004
apt.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:52 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
okie.... bc, nice advice from you on last Fri. 16:00 CT.....

the forum becomes more active now.

ithaca sjm 01:52 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Sell Aud/Yen here and up to 79.00 S/L 79.35. Break below 78.00 should provide good rewards. Euro/Cad shorts still good for 1.5300 L/T, so long as 1.6160 not broken.

shanghai bc 01:51 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   

OOZMMEH,AB -- Not much below Eur/Usd 1.2050 today from our boys..Better wait for London session unless you are already on short train..Good luck..

hk ab nz 0.6 01:44 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
I am going to exit my chf longs from 1.22xx wise on this run.... sounds it's the final leg. before a double bottom searching.

dc fxq 01:40 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
UK 01:05 GMT ... and Rubin is just spouting pure partisan DOMESTIC anti messages. He weren't any great ball o' fiore when je was on the watch as Tsy Sec having brought the global economy the infamous dot.com" bubble through his string USD policy.

A total farce!

Melbourne Qindex 01:39 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Sin HS 01:30 GMT - Some of my subscribers are complaining.

hk ab nz 0.6 01:32 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
bc// is it a good choice to long eur at the moment?

I decide to take some eur long on the first attack of 1.2050. eur/jpy is helping a bit at the moment.

or is it better to enter chf?

Sin HS 01:30 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Mel Q, I've been following your postings for 6 years and i think you're the best, why would anybody complain.

Melbourne Qindex 01:21 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Sin HS 01:16 GMT - GBP/USD : Assume a range market for the time being. I will comment on EUR/USD today, so use it as a reference. If the recent low on EUR/USD fails to hold, change your mind.

Sin HS 01:16 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Mel Q

Melbourne Qindex 01:09 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Sin HS 01:04 GMT - I would prefer you to see my page. There are a lot of complains that I post too much.

UK 01:05 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
BRUSSELS (AFP) - The United States should not use the dollar as an instrument of trade policy but should address its current account deficit by bringing down its budget deficit, former US treasury secretary Robert Rubin said here.

st. pete islander 01:04 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Excuse the question, Jay .... but is anyone getting thread error messages on the geee F and Teee platform? I'm wondering if i have a box problem or is it them. Anyone? thx

Sin HS 01:04 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Good morning Mel Q, your view on gbp is appreciated. TIA.

boulder dat 00:55 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Japan MOF says will continue intervention policy

Melbourne Qindex 00:42 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Eilat Dolphin 00:34 GMT - Good morning! I havn't run a detail analysis on EUR/AUD. I guess EUR/USD and EUR/JPY are easier to trade.

Eilat Dolphin 00:34 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Quindex/ Happy morning! Do you happen to see the Ausie/USD or AUD/E as the best bets forthis week ?

Melbourne Qindex 00:26 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that the market will challenge 1.2069. This is not 100% fool-proof.

TelAviv DOR 00:25 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
Yes BC , thanks .

hk ooozmeeh 00:23 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
BC.....your views on Euro will be highly appreciated. TIA

Livingston nh 00:12 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   
a couple of things about the BoJ announcement - IF the Japanese recovery is real repatriation becomes much less of an issue (money goes home in bad times but out in good times) - the interest rate on the US will not be significant since the Japanese still need to do something with surplus USD (again in good times that should shrink) - higher interest rates should attract some of the hoarded funds back into the banking system (which now has an actual negative rate after transaction costs and taxes) but to create any stimulus the banks need to make loans (BIG ??) // Remeber in a savings based economy interst rates work a little differently on the currency

shanghai bc 00:05 GMT March 29, 2004 Reply   

DOR -- On fundamental basis and without MoF interventions,Yen may be worth around 100 or even stronger when they make a trade surplus even with China over and avove all the trade surpluses they make all over the world..

 




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