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Forex Forum Archive for 03/30/2004

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Gold Coast martin 23:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
QUITO...that is avery good article for EVERYONE to read...i have followed this line of reasoning for the last 2 weeks in posting that the aud will go down to 7150 and the nzd to 62 . the only thing that is escaping me at the moment is the timespan...i expected those figures to be printed by now but it will not be long...the payroll figures will be the catalyst....g.l

oslo oskar 23:50 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
And what are you really tring to say UK fed basher

UK GF 23:47 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Rates will rise in the US whatever the employment data
too many now see the green light to inflation
before it smacks them in the face

UK GF 23:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
- Fed's Guynn cautions US rates to rise
(Reuters) - Low U.S. interest rates must be raised at some point and if they stay low for too long, financial market excesses can build, Federal Reserve Bank (News - Websites) of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said on Tuesday.
"We need to get rates to a more neutral level. That's as far as I am willing to take it. We are at historic lows (on Fed fund rates) and we need to get back to a more neutral level," he told a development forum."If you keep it (rates) too low for too long it can contribute to excesses. There can be unintended consequences of keeping it too low for too long," he said in answer to a question about whether low Fed interest rates were fueling excesses in the U.S. bond and stock market.His comments served a reminder to financial markets, after the Fed left interest rates at a post 1958-low of 1 percent earlier this month, that it was only a question of timing about when U.S. interest rates would start to rise again.Analysts see the Fed staying patient on rates until the weak employment situation decisively improves, but beginning to tighten monetary policy before the end of the year.
In a speech that repeated remarks made last week, Guynn said it was important that businesses do not bank too heavily on low rates because this could lead to short-term decisions that did not make long-term sense.

To illustrate, he said that there was a real estate company in Atlanta with 20 percent vacancy rates that was still building new apartment blocks.

Guynn also repeated he was confident that growth was on a good track and that hiring would pick up in the months ahead.

UK GF 23:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Poole-Fed can act on rates despite U.S. election
(Reuters) - Changing interest rates near the U.S. presidential election is an inherently political act the Federal Reserve would try to avoid, but if it has to move it will, a top Fed policy-maker said on Tuesday.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bill Poole told students at the University of Evansville there was no way to change rates without favoring one political party or the other and as a result, there was a "natural tendency" to avoid that situation.

But he said if the grounds for a move were sufficiently strong "we'll take the political heat and explain what we are doing and why we are doing it."

Poole also said a rise in the U.S. interest rates was being fully anticipated by financial markets, but it was a question of timing and the Fed must monitor the data in making this assessment.

shanghai bc 23:28 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

SNP -- Good morning..My pleasure..Good trades..

Quito Valdez 23:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane// Wow...IS a good article...read this every1.

LAX-LGB SNP 23:22 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:12 GMT March 30, 2004
many thanks for your views :-)

Gen dk 23:20 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 23:18 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 23:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin CK 23:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks - Sunstate!

Valdez - Ill drop u a line. Comments and things like that tmw.

Im going to bed soon, too much crab with garlic butter and chilli's for dinner.

Plus - Id love to pick ur brain about the dow jones, since u have some experience on that matter.

Ive pocketed 300 pips since last Thursday and im still bullish, but im not sure if it will hit the 10,700 target in the short term.

Apol's to all, i understand this is the Forex forum not the financial forum.

shanghai bc 23:12 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

Eur/Usd has ben stuck in the range of 1.2050-1.2450 set in the first week of March for the whole month..It reflects long-term money and short-term money is reasonably balanced in this range..The range break in April on either side may move it to next 500 pip range again while long-term money and short-term money are doing what they are good at..Fwiw..

brisbane sunstate 23:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK 22:26 GMT
good story here re: $-euro and payroll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,9136539%255E28737,00.html

gl

Ld 22:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD's inability to break overhead resistance at 0.7560 is a sign that overhead resistance toward 0.7600 remains extremely robust and if pair can't push through in next 24 to 36 hours then chances of a drop back to 0.7400 are high,NAB strategists.

Quito Valdez 22:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dublin CK//Thanks! Improving every day...any suggestions/comments/additions plz tell me. Try the chat. TIA!!

GVI john 22:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2175…$/yen 105.75
DJIA 10,382, +52 pts…NASDAQ 2,001 +8 pts
10-yr 3.90%, +1 bp’s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:

For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See full text on GVI...

Dublin CK 22:26 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Good evening folks,

Fridays payroll?

Last month i felt it was going to be low, but not that low.

This month i feel its going to be moderate to decent. 80 - 135k

Any opinions on this matter and its potential impact.

Im starting to look like the boy who cried wolf, but with jobs, every month economists are estimating 100-250k jobs, but month after month "there is no wolf".

Quito Valdez - saw ur site, very professional job. Good work my friend - agreed with what u said on the help forum

NYC 22:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Bushg spoke already and announced he will let Condi Rice testify to the 9/11 commission and he + VP Cheney will speak to the entire commision but in private and not under oath.

Quito Valdez 22:14 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Thanks guys! Appreciate the analysis... on eur/usd

london 22:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Is Prez Bush due to speak live on US tv tonite? TIA

Tallinn viies 22:08 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
toronto( Dr Unken Kat 18:34 - hi, think we move higher one more time. at least 1,2270/80 would be nice to see before sharply down to 1,1850/80. within this week of course

Chicago JMI 22:06 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I agree. I think we will see euro below 1.20 before it heads much higher again. The correction isn't over IMO.

ithaca sjm 21:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Just my perspective, but technicals by my view point to 1.1700-1800 before 1.2500 IMHO. Bear pennant points to 1.1300 unless negated.

Quito Valdez 21:49 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Cop// just a thought, instead of transferring gbp to usd, consider doing Euros for a few days or even a week...keeping your eyes open...expected surge like 1.5% with that pair...then transfer to usd after the euro is about peaked. I'm into euros now...waiting for 1.23+. Anyone have thoughts on this so I don't stear this person wrong with over 1/4mM?

LAX-LGB SNP 20:11 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
SFO Cop 19:48 GMT March 30, 2004
suggest you swap close to 1.84 as long as 1.80 holds

SFO Cop 19:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Complete newbie question:
I'm NOT a forex trader, But i will be tranferring roughly GBP250K to USD. Ihave been tracking the rate over the last 9 months and noticed that there is a dip from the 1.90 high to around 1.83 these days.

I am looking at a medium (one to two month) horizon and i am unsure as to whether to buy dollars now (at 1.82) or hold and see if it moves back to the 1.86/1.87 mark

Do you have
a) any thoughts?
b) any suggestion for sites on overall analysis (i have discovered this site and censored.com)?

thnx

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
CAM, JV another concern with this $ retracement is the intense drop on the usd/cad pair and the lack of follow through from BOJ or MOF not buying a lot of dollars at the moment IMHO.

nyc jk 19:38 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
agree with that. seems a lot of short $/jpy positions established recently, may be right eventually , but as you are suggesting, I would also be surprised if the MOF/BOJ just totally stepped away from $ buying, even if they do plan to reduce the size of those operations. May catch a few people off guard in the short term....

HOU RDS 19:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Take it easy fellas

NYC NYC 19:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I think this is going to be a tricky time for jpy. Obvious risk is on usd/jpy downside but gut says MOF cxould easily sucker the market into complacency, even as a parting shot.

NYC NYC 19:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Just thought it important not to lure new traders into thinking trading jpy was a riskless trade. Thanks for clarifying.

nyc jk 19:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC - why do you say the risk is greater in the JPY than other ccys? Implied volatility is in line with other currencies, actual volatility is in line with other currencies.....

Dallas GEP 19:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Tell you what NYC, it's your turn for suggestions, I have been up 20 hours doing this and so I will leave that task to you. The NEWBIE reference was to clarify what longing yen meant in terms of the ccys'. So I will take a rest now and leave you to critique the other posts which seems to be your speciality anyway.

vancouver Thrakos 19:18 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
The NO zone
USD/JPY CAD/JPY GDP/JPY EUR/JPY
Impossible to trade them with constant interventions.

NYC NYC 19:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP. So be careful what you suggest to new traders.

NYC NMYC 19:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP. So be careful what you suggest to new traders.

nyc sa 19:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hey Dallas , u would still short usd and euro against the yen ?

Dallas GEP 19:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC. I agree with you. With intervention certainly possible a highly profitable YEN bullish possie can be eaten alive in seconds with intervention. Need to use trailing stops to protect profits in case intervention occurs and price action is whipped backed the other way. GBP/JPY is especially dangerous.

NYC NYC 19:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
"risk"

NYC NYC 19:09 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Inexperienced traders, aka "newbies," should not be touching the jpy as riak is too great.

prague viktor 19:08 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Gep.lets wait how the tanken will be.

Van jv 19:06 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP//concern to be shredded...by int.?????

Van jv 19:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
OMIL @//Fed follows gold as indicator///they claim no inflaionary press.---contradicted by gold ---we could see some ST action/ intervention on Gold//direct? or ST spike USD??

london cam 19:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:49 GMT March 30, 2004
OMIL, Same thought has been going through my mind, in addition, EUR has not followed through with gold's rising price - one indicator I've used in the past (though not always reliable)
GL GT

Dallas GEP 18:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Friends, be prepared in the next day or so to buy YEN against all other currencies. So for you newbies that would be SHORT usd/jpy, SHORT gbp/jpy, SHORT aud/jpy, short chf/jpy, short eur/jpy etc.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:49 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
What strikes a chord with this stall on the $ correction is that the gold prices have been going up and not loosing ground. This can be giving a hint that the $ correction might be ending or at least running out of time IMHO. GL GT

nyc sa 18:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone thinks that the Tankan sentiment report to be released tomorrow is so great so as to justify the usd /yen around 105.50 ? or might we get a bad or so and so surprise ?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:44 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
The eur/usd pair is wedged between the 200ma and the 100ma on the 1hr chart very tough conditions to trade in. With the intraday indicators indicating south but in neutral territory the best thing to do if you don’t have an intraday position open on this pair is to wait and see where this is going first IMHO. GL GT

usa tom 18:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
gold coast martin, have you any thoughts on whats causing this delay in the aud and nzd downtrend?

Dallas GEP 18:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I meant runs at 1.8260 NOT 1.8060!!!

Dallas GEP 18:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Cable is pressing 1.8260 support, it brokem 1.8240 is next, will probably pip up from 1.8060 and try a couple of more runs @ 1,8060.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 18:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Tallin Viies , whats your take on euro at this moment tnx

Van jv 18:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP///Re 17:00 AUD is still wonderstronger but I do not trust it be real......

Kaunas DP 17:58 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Q to those holding long silver pos: shall we see 7,9 this week or correction first - TIA

Dallas GEP 17:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Alimin, "RATS" are the undecided's. If the ship begins to sink they will follow whereever the group appears to be heading. Like "rats" on a sinking ship.

Quito Valdez 17:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
yea GEP, was wondering same...I don't get it either.

Dallas GEP 17:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Merry Prankster,,,tell me something I don't know!!! BOJ made the statement there would be no more internetions and then wi 30 minutes of MOF saying that BOJ does NOT make FX decisions, MOF intervenes to "show them whose boss". I posted that over a day ago. I am completely aware of how that process works. THANKS!!!

Kaunas DP 17:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT
hope u are correct as long as I need to protect my 1,8380 DNT...LOL

Dallas GEP 17:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
MACD is on the ceiling and has been Look for big CORRECTION short if technicals mean anthing on GBP/USD

ithaca sjm 17:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Not really my currency, but long $/SF at 1.2792, s/l below 1.2740 target tbd

sydney fg 17:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
time for sleep. fwiw 5 min eur verging on new sell signal. hrly still bearish, but ma support remains. going to bed short...what the hey.. g/l all.

Van jv 17:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
It seems that the strongest CC may be again/ and possibly after a ST setback/ GBPUSD benefitting higher creeeping int. rates and potential BOE action---carry trade again??Opinion??

NYC NYC 16:53 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
pj. I get the feeling the bulk of this market is playing it very close to the vest ahead of quarter end, ECB, US jobs

pj amc 16:50 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone considering a short here on eur/usd for a pullback to 1.2150 ?

LHR B747 16:50 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez: pay me royalty and I will allow you to use my foot as a logo :)

This was the last one for today, good trading to all...!!!

Quito Valdez 16:44 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
sjs: charlamos?

mex sjs 16:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
longed euro at 1.2200 tgt 1.2320-50 area sl 1.2150...

Quito Valdez 16:33 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
"Valdez Foot Soap"
Finest foot soap in the business! ticker: VFSP

WashDC Merry Prankster 16:33 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 16:29 GMT

He who laughs last laughs longest or "Don't count your chickens before they hatcH".

LHR B747 16:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez: just 350pips more and I suggest you not to count on clean foot :)

EUR/USD 1.2550 during APR/04 and Valdez will be better than and water and soap :)

"Valdez" sounds to me like a great brand for a foot washer :)

Athens 16:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
All price moves today have been quite technical. It had already become obvious in the morning that part (if not most) of the earlier price moves had nothing to do with genuine USD weakness byt they were due to an overdure Yen correction from extremely O/B territory both v, the USD and the major JPY crosses. Once technical levels such as EUR/JPY 129.80 and GBP/JPY 194.25 were reached or nearly met ($/JPY didn't come very close to correction target 106.50), the market resumed its previous directional course. After today's JPY all round corrections, all the JPY pairs remain very vulnerable on the downside in case the MOF decided to...go on holiday. This is not to say that we will necessarily see new JPY highs now, however such a risk is not out of the way yet, particularly now that the overdue cirrections have taken place. For more details please ask the MOF, not me...

Quito Valdez 16:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
B747// pay me the respect of washing your feet and I'll kiss all 10 tootsies, I'm puckering up as I write! ;^+
(hatchet burried and don't tell my wife!)

LHR B747 16:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito valdez: where you wish to kiss my tootsies, all EUR bulls are on my side to make sure the KISS will take place.

30 days and 350pips for the KISS...I am counting the seconds!

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 16:19 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Cad looks like its about to fall on the floor again

Tallinn viies 16:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
euro corrected down to 38,2% retracemenyt level near 1,2160. now target 1,2270. fwiw

Quito Valdez 16:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Did someone here a while back say they don't know how to post a link? See Help forum, just posted how. Link posting saves space, my code won't make you leave here..pops up another window.

sydney fg 16:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
omil - all agreed again. whileprice remains above 1.2160 i feel 1.2230 is fair game. hrly struggling to go below MA's. plan at this stage to reverse above figure for run at 1.2230-40 then 70-80. thks for ur view. g/l.

WashDC Merry Prankster 16:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT March 30, 2004

MoF NOT BoJ makes intervention decision just as the US Tsy makes the decision NOT the Fed.

Gen dk 16:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 16:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...approaching o/s so no need to be active here, but...a move below 3060 ought to see 3050 quite quickly, which if broken may give us a reaction low as low as 1.30 and then more could follow...a good way to play this may be to short break of 3060 or 3050 depending on your risk profile, and have your exit based on either a return to trade above 3065 or if price hasn't continued lower within 20 or so seconds of breaking support (there are some stops in 3040 area and there may be enough buying to defend them who knows)...gl gt

vancouver Thrakos 15:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Stockholme
Rats eh! ....

Sydney alimin 15:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
stockholm za: what are rats? i understand bulls and bears but not rats...kindly pass on the knowledge?

nyc jk 15:52 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
lol GEP

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
FG intraday tops on this pair is roughly 1.2240 (200ma 1hr) for the moment. This line has been the major resistance for about a week IMHO.

Gen dk 15:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 15:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AMC. if the BOJ and MOF can't decide between themselves WTF THEY are going to do, how are we supposed to know????? LOL

But I will tell you this, at month end usd/jpy COULD short 300-400 PIPS easy.

Stockholm za 15:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

Fwiw.. GV/FF sentiment on the market Today:-

Bulls = 6 %
Rats = 90 %
Bears = 4 %

Happy trades to all……
Ps. Key value line at the moment on EUR/USD = ~12136

Dallas GEP 15:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Yeah JK , but the difference is some of these postions are NOT even fun AT ALL!!! LOL

pj amc 15:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas.....How come your not considering long usd/jpy?

pj amc 15:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas.....How come your not considering long usd/jpy?

nyc jk 15:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, you have have more positions than the Kama Sutra today!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
FG, in intraday the bulls had their chance now it is the bears turn on eur/usd pair the capper for this pair is around 1.2250-60 but intraday indicators right now show it is going to test down and I take it one step at a time. For now it is still considered sell on rallies mode but we are in a range until Fridays unemployment number come out and decide were we are going IMHO. GL GT

Dallas GEP 15:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Can't forget the Aussie shorts!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 15:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello Friends. LOTS of possies still open including: GBP/USD shorts, USD/CAD longs, EUR/USD shorts, USD/CHF shorts, EUR/CHF shorts, EUR/GBP longs but no JPY pairs for some reason!!! LOL

Mtl JP 15:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Bernanke's Trade and Jobs speech.

vancouver Thrakos 15:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Anyone recals who called the JPY reversal this morning? I owe him lucnch :)

Gen dk 15:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View 15:31 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
From GVI:

Mtl JP 15:26 GMT March 30, 2004
Bernanke on deck about Trade and Jobs.. in a few minutes

vancouver Thrakos 15:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
here is a day for EUR/USD locked ion profit and just got hit on it, where is it going now?

sydney fg 15:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
omil - how u seeing topside. considering switcheroo through 1.2200. ...first barrier obviously 30, next 1.2270-80 area?
5 min indicators saying over sold to me

NYC MJ 15:23 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Market feels like it is at a stalemate waiting for more important events later in the week.

sydney fg 15:22 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
omil, seeing same . very choppy 65-85.
short from 98. will bail at even money or 1.2110

Sin HS 15:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dow Jones is creeping up, lookks like eur and gbp will roll down soon

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone. ML, my dreams today cost me to leave 26 pips on the table but they were worth it lol. The eur/usd pair is unwinding the indicators as I suggested earlier and the fib retracement is 1.2155-60, 1.2135-40 and 1.2110-15. With support around 1.2140-50 and bottom is at 1.2045-50 area at the moment. For the moment it has bounced of the first retracement but indicators are pointing down on this pair IMHO. GL GT

Gen dk 15:11 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc fxq 15:09 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Mar 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence Mar Actual 88.3 Consensus 86.0 Prior 88.5 Revised up from 87.3

Hardly the major negative at least one source was looking for (81.3).

mex sjs 15:09 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
just longed usdchf here at 1.2800 sl 1.2770 tgt 1.2835-50 area......

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:05 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, plz ignore my last post re you, I just check the archive. Thanks very much.

slv sam 15:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
e/y at 129.60 was abvious sell, but i missed the chance!GT

Ldn Mvs 15:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 14:45 GMT - hi mate - I cease to understand how your comments can be of any benefit - especially for the newbies, you aren't doing them any favours!

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// I did a final chicken add to dlr/cad 1.3065, will see.

sydney fg 15:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
number 88.3

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I remember today is some sort of reversal day calculated isn't it?

vancouver Thrakos 15:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
iits comming back dnt worry it was just collecting stops :)

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
farmacia, just wanna to know whether you added to your short aud or exited already TIA.

dc fxq 14:58 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 14:51 GMT

Not terribly surprising since of late these markets have been almost exclusively spec driven in the ansence of real money flows.

Gen dk 14:52 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Valdez 14:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Now take a peek, EUR/USD is now back (1.219+) and a bit more to what it was prior to 9 AM EST...funny little dipsey doodle it does almost each morning, especially when EUR has been gathering a little momentum during the asia/London sessions.

Jubail Gamber 14:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
raden,
we are waiting for the consumer confidence number. is it going to affect the eur$? previous 87.3 and forcasted 86

vancouver Thrakos 14:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Valdez,
Understanding the operator is the most important part of trading, and ur questions are right on the money.

Barcelona Tony 14:45 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
buy euro now ... don't miss this chance

Gen dk 14:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 14:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
about aussie.
ideal top at 0.7546

Quito Valdez 14:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
'Top o' th' mornin' all! Out of curiosity, what event might up value of USD at 9AM EST --MANY-- mornings? Anyone ever notice that? Banks open up in eastern USA possibly? But why the lower eur/usd chart right at 9 AM?

Global-View J 14:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GVI 14:27 GMT March 30, 2004
March 30 Speech - Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Trade and Jobs
Distinguished Speakers Series, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
10:30 a.m.

perth rick 14:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
becareful of bernake.

Gen dk 14:14 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 14:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

IST Sez 14:12 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
To eur buyers(bulls)...
Eur will be under sell pressure until the US employment data on friday.Only bad numbers could change downtrend IMO
It can make money "sell above 1,22.. and buy it at 1,21.. levels"
GBP: ???!!!!
GL/GT

cla ham 13:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Bloomberg says SEC and NYSE will announce a $241 million settlement.

Malaga boqueron 13:23 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Going long CADCHF here. S/L below,9720.

Tallinn viies 13:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
buy the euro on pullbacks. 1,2160/70 level first to jump on bandwagon.
target 1,2270.
cant see it under 1,2120/25 today.

Ldn Mvs 13:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham - hi mate - cheers - nice observation/correlation analysis on NOK, and yes eur/cad has indeed played important role - hv been bearish on it myself over past week but has gone beyond my inital target area of 1.3120 so just testing the ground really - but I think u r right when u say that there are still some stale longs out there - another 100+ pts downside in the offing not an altogther impossible scenario (how the FX mkt loves to make to bad posis bleed to death..cruel world lol) - g/l!

Gen dk 13:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 13:05 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Mvs 12:53 GMT

plenty of stale longs in this one still holding on...area to watch should be eurcad...if this revisits yesterday's lows and breaks them, it ought to be enough to confirm a break below the 200 day sma and the sharp fall following would drag both usdcad (sub 1.30) and eurusd (would prob need to revisit territory close below 1.2130) lower...longs may well be hoping for some good news from next week's BoC rate decision but recent data suggests that the rate cut expected then will be the last>>>looking back to Norway's rate cutting cycle and it's efffect on the fx rate, the perceived final cut was met with massive strengthening by NOK against the EUR...we may see similar effect with usdcad and this would spark by towel throwing by those stale longs, however, this very much depends on the statement that goes with the expected cut...today pair is conventionally o/s a little below 1.30...gl gt

Bkk Cad 13:04 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Addit: So does eur/stg on both hourly and weekly candlesticks...double gulp!

Ldn Mvs 13:04 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Singapore Sfx - cheers mate - appreciate - yes guess it's hard to call a bottom when it falls like a dagger, but all good things must eventually come to an end - almost 4 big figures in just as many trading sessions is pretty impressive to say the least..let's hope US data will eventually shed more light..g/l

bkk Cad 13:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Tony: But hour candle has evening star...gulp!

Singapore Sfx 12:58 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Mvs .. Hi mate , been confused about whether to give usdcad its leading indicator status of last year, or ...
The generally accepted theme seems to be that over the past couple of weeks as we moved from a stg-focus to a eur-focus liquidation, stgcad and eurcad got centrestage ..
I guess if those themes are losing ground, a correction, if not reversal is sort of overdue..
That said, 1.3030-50, is i suppose the zone it has to hold for now..good luck.

pj amc 12:58 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
anyone looking to go short here on eur/usd

Barcelona Tony 12:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
bullish candle on euro 30 min .... party will be on the side we less expect....

bkk Cad 12:55 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, that was a nice meal today (all pips) but I'm such a glutton, I'm having seconds with the euro, all the way down to 1.2100 I hope. God bless and goodnight.

Ldn Mvs 12:53 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
my last comment re. cad was more a question...was just looking at price action and wondered if anyone closer to that mkt happened to be seeing anything interesting on that front...1.3050 needs to hold now and preferably brk & stay above 1.3100/10 soon in order to get any glimpse of a jump...

Ldn Mvs 12:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
looks like usd/cad may finally be seeing some buying interest....

GVI john 12:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2190…$/yen 105.95
DJIA -31 pts… 10-yr 3.87%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for full text...

Moscow Hawk 12:18 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Tony, talking about big figures we are in different boats this time. From my point of view the picture is totally different now. I have got 1.1550-1750 on the cards.

Short term EUR/USD needs to pass through tough 1.2330-2430 to ease pressure downside. But for me it will not change mid term picture and so far euro is vulnerable to further downside.

I also think that not many players support now continuation of downside in few weeks time. Downside move was stalled ahead of 1.20 and EUR/USD has stuck in range. After few weeks of routine range trading and few failed attempts to break lower one could feel run out. That is a human nature.

Good luck

Melbourne Qindex 12:14 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Current Comment.  Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

london 12:12 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur/Usd, sell/(longs take their profit now) signal on hourly anyone?

KL KL 12:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
pound, eur, aud is certainly testing everyone patience....I think I sleep now and see 4 hours later where it is...probably still around 1.825x....he he...maybe it is the EOmonth thing...can neither long nor short.....limbo land

melbourne farmacia 12:07 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 11:01 GMT March 30, 2004
Not selling Gbp/Usd at this stage.

ln 11:10 GMT March 30, 2004
Living in the arse end of the world, times and days have no meaning. READ the date mate.... GT



cl krish 12:05 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
farmacia: that was a good one

melbourne farmacia 12:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 07:38 GMT March 30, 2004
Yeah aussie got legs tonight. Not concerned with my short if under 0.7610.

chicago cal 11:49 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
isn't this exciting, i'm up 3 whole pips!!!!

London R J 11:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Any views on U S opening numbers as far as cable is concerned??

pj amc 11:33 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
barcelona...thanks

Barcelona Tony 11:31 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 11:30 GMT March 30 ... trendlines and key zones broken .. that's why ....

pj amc 11:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
barcelona............why are you closing everything once eur breaks 1.23? just curious

Barcelona Tony 11:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
same history as when euro at 1.07 .... saloniko's post made me think about it once again ... false breakout of major support and then back up ... 1.3xxx becomes more realistic than ever .... closing everything once euro breaks 1.23

ithaca sjm 11:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Stopped o/n on Aud/Yen at 79.35. Still short Euro/Cad. See no reason to change view. Good luck etc.

ln 11:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
"close up shop" & "weekend". It's still Tues in most parts of the world. How did you fast forward to the weekend?

QC WC 11:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 15:42 GMT March 26, 2004
Final comment before close up shop for the weekend - Gbp/usd chart is one ugly picture.... from a trade & aesthetic perspective, wouldn't win any art prize ! Have good weekend all. GT

Farmacia, any ideas re GBP, is it time to sell now?

Nottingham 11:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
cable...a few indicators converge at 8280 and its seems to be having problems sustaining itself above there...you need to see it move above there soon otherwise market will take path of lest resistance and test durability of support which would be in the form up topside of early morning range...gl gt

GA TJ 10:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
cal 10:28

Starting to rethink this Cable up move. It might still go but I have my doubts. Never entered long.

NZ bomber 10:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Hi to you all

Im new here................i sold the aud/usd at .7484 and its just gone up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can someone tell me where the eur/usd and gbp/usd are going now - i think long but who knows!!!

Sydney gvm 10:49 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ta chaps

chicago cal 10:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
kl 10:21

all you gotta do is buy hi and sell higher it's as simple as that

gl,gt

London Rhood 10:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
1.2229

Ldn Cashman 10:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
EBS high 1.2229

Sydney gvm 10:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
High on the eur/$ so far this session please TIA

GA TJ 10:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
KL KL

That is the Art of trading not the science. Short answer is until I feel comfortable. I don't think there is a single correct answer to your question. To many variables at play. On Cable techs are overbought so I am thinking three things. 1) Techs usually get overbought for a reason so go with the flow 2) Since techs are overbought this could be the last flurry of buying. 3) Why hasn't Euro confirmed. There are other minor considerations which usually confused the situation.

If I were to enter right now 1.8264 and am wrong the most I would lose is 25 pips or so.

BTW I have not entered yet.

Ditto all this with GBPJPY

London ADK 10:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Ldn Mvs 10:23 - Much appreciated. Interesting development and surely something to keep an eye on. I think the yen is key over the next month or so and that info fits in with my rationale for a pre-ECB trade. Cheers and GL

Ldn Mvs 10:28 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
con't on yen theme = esp. now mkt is well long of yen calls to the eyeballs over next two weeks - could well see a snowball effect on this where folks may have to scramble to get on the bandwagon of a weaker yen as their options begin to lose value quickly...

chicago cal 10:28 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
cable is a buy for 1.8370

gl,gt

hong kong nt 10:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AB -- i guess your house must be full of chicken today, well done...

Ldn Mvs 10:23 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
London ADK - hring from two reliable sources (can't say no more sry, but personally following move) - o/n we already saw first slow move - gbp/jpy also a key mover this mrng - very typical of Japanese to start their purchases at this moment ie. no need to wait for calander month to kick-in...we could very well see a repeat of what we saw at last G-7 when all were geared up for jpy rally & opposite happened - personally banking on further yen weakness based on this theme...g/l

KL KL 10:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ..Normally how long do you wait before you long cable in this current scenerio.....20 mins, 30 mins 1 hour??

Belgrade Knez 10:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli aek

Sent already.

London ADK 10:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
MVS - Thanks for the info. If I may ask what is your source.

GVI john 10:09 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.1935…$/yen 110.25
DJIA 10,315, +88 pts…NASDAQ 1,939, +19 pts
10-yr 4.51%, 0 bp’s
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on “GVI’s Market Tracker”:
CLICK HERE


SEE GVI FOR TEXT

Ldn Mvs 10:08 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
The move we are seeing this mrng on yen crosses is all related to Japanese buying of Euro denominated bonds for the new fiscal year - this could indeed be the new trend - new fiscal year = looking for better yields than at home in Japan = weaker yen! Fasten your seatbelts....

Roumeli aek 10:07 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez [email protected]
Thanks

Gen dk 10:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GA TJ 10:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Well that didn't take long for Cable to challenge 1.8260 area. Waiting to see if if it holds or if this was just a spike. If it maintains 1.8250 then I will strongly consider Long even though techs are approaching or are already overbought.

Disclaimer: Same as below

Belgrade Knez 10:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle GH 09:54 GMT March 30, 2004

Sent.

Nottingham 09:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
bit of res here for cable at 8280...a move thru here may accelerate move higher...gl gt

Newcastle GH 09:54 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez ,
No sorry, email: [email protected]

Roumeli aek 09:54 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Knez, could you post the programm to the help forum? thanks

Belgrade Knez 09:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle GH 09:41 GMT March 30, 2004

Do you have Yahoo messenger?


Nairobi, Kenya Jk 09:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
If gfk consumer confidence was lower than expected at -3 against -.2 why is the beast gaining? gl to all.

EZ Rachacha 09:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Ooops!....

EZ Rachacha 09:45 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Special Offer! Usd/Chf ! it's a buy now! (IMO)

Gen dk 09:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Newcastle GH 09:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez

I have Metatrader. I would like that please. I had that as well when my computer died! Much appreciated!

Belgrade Knez 09:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Pivot points for today

eur/usd

R3 = 1.2347
R2 = 1.226
R1 = 1.2225 (1.2224 at 6:20 am GMT)
PP = 1.2138
S1 = 1.2103
S2 = 1.2016
S3 = 1.1983

ln 09:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GA TJ 09:32 GMT. you are only as foolish as the crowd you hang around with...gl gt

Belgrade Knez 09:38 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle GH 09:01 GMT March 30, 2004

have a program that calculates pivot point it self, but made for Metatrader platform only. So you will have to download Meta platform.

GA TJ 09:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW on Cable 1.8260 area appears to be an important level with Fibs, Pivots, S/R, etc. Wether it holds this upmove remains to be seen. If it gets thru I think there are 200 pips or so to the upside. If not I am looking for 1.8000 to be taken out.

Disclaimer: Only a fool would trade on my postings

Newcastle GH 09:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli aek
Thanks, that one is not it, but will do the job!

Ldn Cashman 09:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
mach, there was talk of a Eur/Usd buying order at the fix of anywhere between 1 and 10 billion Euros. I'm sceptical.

Roumeli aek 09:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Newcastl, try this
http://www.stelaronline.com/resource/pivot.htm

Newcastle GH 09:20 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
brisbane sunstate - Thanks anyway. The one I am after has r1,2,3 & s1,2,3.

warsaw mach 09:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
any roumor about big name buing huge amount of eur/usd before fixing?

Gen dk 09:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

brisbane sunstate 09:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Newcastle GH 09:01 GMT
This site has a small calculator but not sure if that is the one you are looking for
http://www.futurestrade.com/

Gen dk 09:08 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Newcastle GH 09:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Would anyone know the site for a free pivot calculator. There is a very good small one made in NZ that you can move around the screen? I've lost the site and the calculator.

gold coast jsh 08:58 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ML...mail received..thanks

cork g 08:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 03:05 GMT March 30, 2004

Training a right frame of mind is the most difficult but absolutely neccessary part for success and most are simply not ready to go through that hard stage of the learning process because it is a very painful process ..


Thanks, master bc, could you tell me as a newbie in this business how to train myself the right frame of mind? Any suggestion or experience to share?
Thanks again!

Sin HS 08:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Any thoughts on selling nzd at this level 6556? Thanks.

Vilnius george 08:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hey Tallinn , welcome to NATO

LAX-LGB SNP 07:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
short on gbp$ and long on $chf ... TTYL L8erz everyone :-)

hong kong nt 07:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 07:38 -- if you like to sell aussie, i guess .760+ is better entry level,

just wonder the effect of widening rate differential btw aussie and euro...

perth rick 07:50 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
US tx 04:30 GMT March 30, 2004
then bye bye euro

sydney fg 07:49 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
any thghts on eur/jpy breaking 129.40-50?
favour selling eur/usd 1.2240 area if eur/jpy fails thru 40-50

Tallinn viies 07:47 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
keep buying the euro. target first at 1,2260 fwiw

Nottingham 07:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
to avoid confusion its prob best to avoid these channels or at least turn the volume off...there seems to be a competition running as to who can provide the most useless or inaccurate information there

Sydney Ge11Ja 07:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 07:37 GMT March 30, 2004

Is this just the Japanese trying to push up these crosses for reval purposes for tomorrow?

hong kong nt 07:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AB -- nice to know you're a graduate of hku, i joined hku's bds many years ago but have never completed the course...

hong kong nt 07:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AB -- nice to know you're a graduate of hku, i joined hku's bds many years ago but have never completed the course...

LAX-LGB SNP 07:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AB
its kinda weird coz some mediterranean countries are going to change after the weekend along with the states but some of the eastern bourses have already changed over ...

besides CNBC has local programming and the AsEan bloc may have rolled over a week earlier than the States

hk ab nz 0.6 07:38 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
thanks pal.

farmacia, am thinking about selling aud together.

but the c9 index is against us now.

Nottingham 07:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
that would be UK time

hk ab nz 0.6 07:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// all jpy crosses are repatriating now.
temp. supporting the majors.

Nottingham 07:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 07:31 GMT

most desks are in full operation from 7am onwards...

hk ab nz 0.6 07:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
SNP// o really, I must have got a wrong messge from CNBC last night.

Ldn 07:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
UK ECON: Nationwide Hse Price Index +1.4% M/M, +16.7% Y/Y

hk ab nz 0.6 07:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
oops, I am still holding a long from .6675 for eur/gbp

LAX-LGB SNP 07:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 07:31 GMT

US mkts won't adapt to savings time till after this coming weekend

hk ab nz 0.6 07:31 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// does london opens this hr or next? I am confused with the time zone 'cos I know US and Ca has already moved their clock back 1 hr.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:26 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// I have a record of GOOD attendence at hku.....hahahah. even for some useless lectures.....

I still remember a old joke from an "experienced" lecturer telling us cows have "4 lungs".......

Lancaster dh 07:22 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like the gbpusd may uptrend a bit tonight.

hong kong nt 07:19 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 07:04 -- are you a rare guest in lecture theatre during your college days? XDDD

prague viktor 07:06 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ZP Nemo.on hold for this week

hk ab nz 0.6 07:04 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
bc// if London boys bring down the eur, should we follow too for today?

SLO Marko 07:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
No change this week. Next time -25bps.

ZP Nemo 06:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dear GVI members!

Pleased to post your predictions about ECB rate decision...
Like Reuters poll )) TIA

I mean -25pp

hk ab nz 0.6 06:54 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// sure right after my office stuff. probably next Monday.

hong kong nt 06:53 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ab -- when have time for a pint of beer? pls sms...

ZP Nemo 06:52 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Sell EUR anyway!!!))

[05:15 GMT March 30] The EUR/USD opened the session around 1.2155 after making a
strong recovery from below 1.2100 in the U.S. afternoon. It appeared that the
market got a bit carried away pushing the EUR/USD to 1.2045 in London and decent
short covering continued throughout the morning. Stops were triggered above
1.2180 and a high around 1.2200 was reached before selling interest emerged to
cap. There was another run higher later in the session to try and take out stops
above 1.2210, but sellers at that level kept them safe for now.
Analysts feel that the market might have reacted too strongly to speculation
that the ECB might ease rates on Thursday. Most economists would be surprised to
see the normally cautious ECB cut rates without seeing further evidence that the
EZ recovery was sputtering.
There is a double top formed at 1.2210 and this has validated the level as
key resistance. Stops are still in place above that level. Key short-term
support comes in around 1.2145. This level is hourly support and is the 38.2%
fibo of the 1.2045-1.2210 move. [email protected] /SH

hk ab nz 0.6 06:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// make sure if those c9 read gvi as well.... hehehe.

the weather is not good eh even for trading.

hk ab nz 0.6 06:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
nt// interesting......

but I leave my hands off on aud now.
just want to secure my nzd positions before next Wed.

slv sam 06:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
slv sam 14:23 GMT March 29, 2004
I am selling the euro at 1.2215 and more at 1.2260 if seen..target 1.1260!GT

let us see if my second part will be seen!GT

hong kong nt 06:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AB -- hear c9 selling more aussie at ~0.750 this morning, fwiw...

Singapore alwaysrespectthemarket 06:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Market talk: Rumor in the market that a big investor might need to buy 10 billion EUR/US$ for London fixing today.

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 06:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
dont be shmack just buy it on dip

QC WC 06:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 01:24 GMT March 30, 2004
Qindex 06:42 29 Mar, is Euro target now 1.2222?

Qindex, Euro high 1.2223 bid, what now?

boulder dat 06:11 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
this price action is very strange. is there somethign going on that i'm not hearing about?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 06:08 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
30 MARCH 2004

Note : all numbers here are bid

EUR/USD when at 1.2190
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up trend signal to get target 1.3119
Good level entry : 1.2155 – 1.1754 – 1.1406 with stop loss objective 1.1659
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down signal to get target 1.1826
Good level entry : 1.2355 - 1.2436 – 1.2492 with stop loss objective 1.2510
· 4 hours candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.2006
Good level entry : 1.2209 – 1.2245 – 1.2265 with stop loss objective 1.2275
· Hourly Candle formation
Still on the up trend signal to get 1.2226 or 1.2279
Good level entry : 1.2157 – 1.2134 with stop loss objective 1.2001
GBP/USD when at 1.8213
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up signal to get 1.9421
Good level entry : 1.7112 – 1.7265 with stop loss 1.6965
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down trend to get minimum 1.7771
Good level entry : 1.8235 – 1.8275 – 1.8411/28 with stop loss 1.8510
· 4 hours candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.7963
Good level entry : 1.8220 with stop loss objective 1.8272
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the up ternd signal to get 1.8308
Good level entry : 1.8185 – 1.8128 with stop loss objective 1.8107
USD/CHF when at 1.2800
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.1965
Good level entry : 1.2812 – 1.3145 – 1.3576 with stop loss objective 1.4027
· Daily candle formation
Still on the up signal to get 1.3248
Good level entry : 1.2724 – 1.2665 – 1.2446 with stop loss objective 1.2371
· 4 hours candle formation
Still on the up signal to get 1.3011
Good level entry : 1.2761 – 1.2728 – 1.2702 with stop loss objective 1.2654
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 1.2750
Good level entry : 1.2825 – 1.2851 with stop loss objective 1.2870
AUD/USD when at 0.7492
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up trend to get 0.8236
Good level entry : 0.7053 – 0.7124 with stop loss objective 1.6979
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 0.7178
Good level entry : 0.7534 – 0.7655 – 0.7800 with stop loss objective 0.7821
· 4 hours candle formation
Still on the way buy signal to get 0.7579
Good level entry : 0.7496 – 0.7407 with stop loss objective 0.7398
· Hourly candle formation
Still on down signal to get 0.7532
Good level entry : 0.7470 – 0.7442 with stop loss objective 0.7420

USD/JPY when at 105.60
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 96.84
Good level entry : 108.72 -114.32 with stop loss objective 117.72
· Daily candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 103.11
Good level entry : 107.22 – 108.72 with stop loss objective 109.97
4 hours candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 104.07
Good level entry : 106.11 – 107.03 – 108.87 with stop loss objective 109.12
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 104.95
Good level entry : 105.60 – 105.87 with stop loss objective 106.07
Gold when at 417.40
· Weekly candle formation
Still on the up trend to get 432.50
Good level entry : 415.00 – 407.60 – 405.30 with stop loss objective 404.00
· Daily candle formation
Still on the up trend signal to get 427.80
Good level entry : 411.00 – 406.30 – 399.90 with stop loss objective 398.30
· 4 hours candle formation
Still on the up trend signal to get 425.90
Good level entry : 415.10 – 407.70 with stop loss objective 406.40
· Hourly candle formation
Still on the down signal to get 415.70
Good level entry : 418.80 – 419.30 – 420.20 with stop loss objective 420.90



My best regards,
Raden Mas

Sydney Ge11Ja 06:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
SF Augustus 05:35 GMT March 30, 2004

You could take the view that the MOF was worried about excessive yen repatriation/ end of financial year effect and thus they were very aggressive to hold usd/yen to a reasonable level.

Now that is out of the way (spot date is now new fiscal year) they do not see as great a need.

So they are not necessarily abandoning their stance, they just dont see as great a need for it.

Jubail Gamber 05:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Indonesia Solo raden_masandi,
eur is climbing now. short order at 1.2250, s/l 280 t/p 100.
what do u think?

LA saint3 05:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hi raden,

maybe i missed your view on gbp/usd...
what is your target and good entry point for today?

Thanks much.

Saihat 05:44 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
for demo only

buy usdjpy

105.80....stop 105.25

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jubail Gamber 05:13 GMT March 30, 2004
gbp/usd.
now first resist at 1.8245 and second 8275.
expected same of eur, keep selling possie. have to concern with daily and weekly chart, have nots signal upper yet

SF Augustus 05:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone know what the real deal is with the MOF/BOJ?The UK Times recently piped that the BOJ is ceasing intervention, but official MOF statement is that they will continue to step in if things get out of hand. Obviously more credibilitly goes with the MOF stance, but still wondering what the situation is with the conflicting statements? I don't see why intervention would be cut cold-turkey all of a sudden, even with Japan showing sustained signs of gradual recovery. Why would the MOF risk jeopardizing the fledgling recovery with significant Yen strength?

I think the Times reporting that the MOF will cease intervention because the believe that it is no longer necessary is a bunch of poppy-cock. But you never know. Does anyone have any insights on this? two cents?



Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 05:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jubail Gamber 05:13 GMT March 30, 2004
keep selling possie but u must be patience waiting price at 1.2250. or you can long for short term playing for 1.1235.
don't for get with your stop 30 pips from your enmtry level.

Ga Lee 05:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 04:27 GMT March 30, 2004
Sorry to hear of your ills, but inspirational post nontheless..thanks for your time..and sharing...

Tallinn viies 05:28 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
good morning world!
bc troops managed to stop euro donwmove.
daily charts showing signs that euro is ready to correct up to 1,2360. so, buying on pullbacks toward retracment levels is prefered strategy today. stop under 1,2090. target 1,2360.
first target 1,2260.

Jubail Gamber 05:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
raden Masnadi,
Good afternoon, eur bounced back from 207 as u said be4! :)!
what r ur views about eur$ and gbp$ today?

Quito Valdez 04:50 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD: It's starting to look like the infamous "double peak then drop" pattern...sure I hope I'm wrong. And it ain't even Friday yet and I'm worrying? (Valdez puts this away and goes to sleep..)

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
FWIW eur/usd is trying for the third time to drill a hole in 1.2200-10 area with no success. There are stops rumored around that area too. The intraday indicators are definitely in O/B territory with a hint to turn south at least to unwind a bit. GL GT to everyone.

Cairns 04:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Posted: Mar 30 Trade recommendations & High/Low forecasts, signals, pivots, S1/S2, R1,R2, live quotes and sentiment indicator at
http://www.fxguide.net/

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ML 1.2200 printed and I pulled the plug on my eur/usd long from 1.2130. I probably left about 20-30 more pips on the table but that will be my cost for a good night sleep tonight. I will gladly pay it. Move stops and squeeze for all it’s worth. GL GT

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 04:31 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP the ema have crossed on euro and cable giving long signals on 5 , 10 15 and in progress are 30 min charts
nice strong signal

US tx 04:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
When ECB cut rates, will it move the Eur/usd down 100 pips?

What happened in the past when the ECB cut the rates, did it move the eur/usd down or up?

Quito Valdez 04:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, I lost $85k in a bank deal 4 years ago. Irretrievable. My wife told me not to do it. Double ouch. Sound familiar? Things CAN get worse than your situation. You've not lost, you've learned. Knowledge costs. 6 yrs college...it costs. 6 yrs on the job...you make money if you've learned. Trading. First off, it costs. Later you make money. If you learn. Same thing. I was 53 when I lost $85k. Do we ever stop learning? NO. Don't give up, just dig in and learn. Be conservative. It shouldn't be hard to make up your $25k. If you learn. Stops are golden. Hope costs. Emotions cost. Discipline gains. Patience gains. Plans gain. Guts man, guts. Reload and shoot.

Mfld JM 04:20 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I think we should all get at least one "Mulligan" per day! hehe

GA TJ 04:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I fought the market and the market won. Pulled Cable order and going to bed.

Singapore alwaysrespectthemarket 04:06 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Eur yen ..see stops lined up from 129.00 to 129.75 i see it breaking 130.00... eur/gbp supp now 0.6670..see it back to 0.6725

nyc sa 03:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
good evening all , hk ab if u r still trading eur/yen ? any hope to see 1.3080 ?

hk ab nz 0.6 03:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I am thinking how would this eur/gbp behave.....

hk ab nz 0.6 03:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
martin// thank you all the hard work and nice post.

hk ab nz 0.6 03:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
martin// thank you all the hard work and nice post.

ICT ML 03:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
TJ...I will go with the flow on it...I have a big picture view but it will take little swings up and down to get me there. IF the euro long is still a good moving trade, I will pass on buying cable for now and wait for my selling plan to come to me...

Gold Coast martin 03:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
hk ..ab...all my research and info. indicate that the trend on the aud and nzd will occur..as far as time frame i will have a clearer picture whether it has been delayed or not in the next 2 hours...will keep you posted....g/l

Dallas GEP 03:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
The 30 minute MACD on pound had plateaued at .0012 and stoch is at 80. So it's EITHER going to drop like a rock OR bust and go long. And I don't really know which one. 1.8224 is upper BB and 1.8160 is lower BB so WTF???

GA TJ 03:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ML

If Cable breaks 1.8225 will that change your view. I just placed an order to buy 1.8240. But it may be pulled at any moment. If Cable does manage to move up I think you may get another 100 pips on your euro long.

Disclaimer: Only a fool would trade off my postings

Ldn 03:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
KUALA LUMPUR (AP)--A small bomb was thrown at Australia's main diplomatic mission in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday, scorching a heavy security gate outside but causing no further damage or any injuries, a spokesman said.

An unknown number of attackers hurled the device at the High Commission, located in the heart of the city's business district, shortly before 5 a.m. (2100 GMT Monday) before escaping, spokesman Simon Merrifield said. Only security staff and Malaysian police posted outside the building were present.

Dallas GEP 03:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
TJ, know what you mean. I had a GF one time that I swear to God could spend money while she was sleeping!!!!

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 03:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
good afternoon.

Singapore alwaysrespectthemarket 03:31 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like after this round of blood-letting and cleansing ...
breakout of 1.2230 and 1.8240 shud see alot higher eur and gbp ..along with the yen crosses..

GA TJ 03:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP

Pound is a lap dog compared to some ex girl friends LOL. I keep looking at this thing and see 200 pip potential to the upside. But I feel a little out of tune not having traded for 6 weeks.

ICT ML 03:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
TJ...GEP.....my plan on cable is to sell it when I get another 4 hr signal.....which seeing it still hasn't broken 1.8225 I think that might be in London session. On a 4 hr euro buy signal right now trying to see if I get get through 1.2200 before Ldn comes on and thinks about selling it maybe.

shanghai bc 03:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

AB -- There may be a good move in London session again..Follow London flow whichever way it takes you..For the last three session,we bought euro in London sessions while NY and Tokyo session folks sold it each day ..Today is the first time,Tokyo session folks buying it too..Hopefully London,NY session folks buy it too..Then,Dollar bounce may be not over yet..Good luck..

Dallas GEP 03:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
POUND is the biggest Pain in the Butt. Unbelievable!!!

GA TJ 03:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ML

What is your view on Cable. For me the chart pattern looks like it should break the 1.825 mark but 60 min stuff looks over bought to me. However when something gets overbought there is usuall a reason for it. Debating if it does break out much is left? GBPJPY appears to play the same tune.

Jerry, best advice I have for you is to let it go and regroup. If you decide to keep trading rest assured that there will be more hits in the future. Its just the nature of the beast.

spring hill lw 03:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
any thoughts on the eur/usd

hk ab nz 0.6 03:20 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I was actually in a dilema with eur/jpy...

that eur/jpy call yesterday was really interesting.

If I enter, I may gain big but the problem is the deliberate s/l washing....so, flat hahaha.

hk ab nz 0.6 03:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
sp// I would like to see a break of 1.15 real soon to bring some good moves.

However, I don't want to add too many on this pair now since level of entry are not good and not easy.

hk ab nz 0.6 03:14 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
bc// do u expect this London buying is eyeing something at least to 1.26 region? Thanks very much!

sgp sp 03:11 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab, yes I have exited the aud/nzd position becos I moved my s/l to BE...and it hit last night. so flat here.

thanks 4 ur concern.....gl & gt 2 u

Stockholm za 03:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Well well.............
It Gets Better & better by the day. !!!
paper profit :-
Profit which has been made but not yet realized through a transaction, such as an investment which has risen in value but is still being held. also called unrealized gain or unrealized profit or paper gain or book profit.
Risk-averse :- Investing conservatively.
Wanting to avoid risk unless adequately compensated for it; the attitude of most investors. For example, if two investments have the same expected return, the one with lower risk will be preferred. A riskier investment has to have a higher expected return in order to provide an incentive for a risk-averse investor to select it.
Investment strategy :- An investor's plan of distributing assets among various investments, taking into consideration such factors as individual goals, risk tolerance and horizon.
preservation of capital : - A conservative investment strategy characterized by a desire to avoid risk of loss.
Formula investing :- An investment strategy which eliminates emotional decisions by following a specific set of rules. One example is dollar cost averaging.
Conservative :- Cautious; having a risk-averse investment strategy which has preservation of capital as a high priority.
The Glossary............GL/GT

LAX-LGB SNP 03:06 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
today, i'm short on AUD$, GBPCHF & long on $CAD
the majestic beast appears confusing so far ... going to wait for better levels to short

P.S.
NYC Jerry 02:39 GMT
re: your USDCADs - a senior once said ... success has many fathers but failure is a miserable bastard
FWiW last week, my book lost a bit longing usdcad from the mid-1.32s but since the other trades were in the green, i didn't mind

shanghai bc 03:05 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

For any prospective traders,hope this is not in any way a discouragement..

Trading is a hard mind game and not everyone is suitable to be engaged in such a hard game..Most have neither frame of mind nor mental fortitude to survive in this hard game..Mastering TAs or numbers or options business are at best a first tentative step into the right direction with no guarantee to any success..Training a right frame of mind is the most difficult but absolutely neccessary part for success and most are simply not ready to go through that hard stage of the learning process because it is a very painful process ..Trading is essentially about pain-taking-process in the end although most do not realize it..The process of overcoming fear,greed and mastering tranquility of mind in this hard school of speculation..Fwiw..

hk ab nz 0.6 03:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
sp//have u exited your aud/nzd longs?

martin// do u think the trend has changed or delayed? TIA.

Dallas GEP 02:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, If you have a issue with any of these postings just SAY it MAN!!! YOU are the one responsible for entering a position, and setting a STOP and a LIMIT. To be quite blunt, I beginning to doubt your sincererity in your postings. I can't say it any plainer than that. I have little time or patience for this so good luck to you.

melbourne farmacia 02:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Sorry Jerry - and move your trailing stop every 12 hours or so.
ps - just an example not my trade, don't play Cad myself.

hk ab nz 0.6 02:44 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
gep// no aussie at hands at the moment, only nzd shorts and nzd options.

farmacia// nice one and hope that the aud can tell us something later.

melbourne farmacia 02:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC Jerry 02:01 GMT March 30, 2004
If i was new to the market with 100 K... I would look for trade opps on hourly chart plus two ema's. Yes, after the fact view, but hourly CAD chart had ema's crossing @ 1.3387, so enter say hourly bar at 1.3346 and let her run until next ema cross. So far no cross....u would still be in the market up 300 odd pips. You might not pick the top/bottoms etc with a simple EMA's system.... Exit on smaller time frame ie 30 min... Good trades in the future.

Dallas GEP - we just need hourly Stoch turning down under 80 SS line.

NYC Jerry 02:39 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, thank you so much. Odd how trades appear and disappear here, checking the archives. I thought I would give this a shot, but I am not made for this. This seems to be for people with unlimited resources, and even bigger imaginations. Funny also how the doubled up Canada positions disappear except from my statement. Nice speaking with most of you, and best of luck.

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2165 1.2180 1.2197 1.2212 1.2226 1.2244 1.2273
LOWER BANDS 1.2137 1.2122 1.2105 1.2090 1.2076 1.2058 1.2030

Caribbean! Rafe... 02:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC Jerry// For day trading, don't risk more than 2% of your total capital per pair try to learn 1 or 2 currencies and stick with them.

With the kind of capital you have plus the state your in meaning semi retired. If I was you I'd go in for holding trades for a few days or few weeks, trading with 1- 2- max 3 lots. the pips add up and the Risk/Reward is justified.

Only take trades when your sure of what a currency is going to do in the longest time frame that your comfortable with then you calculate from that to determine the shorter time frames,.

A rule of thumb if I may call it that, if you have a Doubt-Stay Out.

Never take a trade amount or amount of lot's that you think will prevent you from getting a good night's sleep or getting lesser sleep or have you circling around to your computer every 30 minutes to check as that sooner or later is going to lead to opening/closing trades in panic/frenzy which means a loss if not at that point then in sometime in the future in whatever magnitude.

You should be able to shrug off a losing trade and still have the nerve to take another without shaking your confidence.

Ldn 02:19 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Australian building approvals' rise of 3.2% in February partly reflects large spike in approvals for apartments in Sydney, says Kieran Davies, chief economist at ABN AMRO. Says overall trend for housing lower, with auction data still weak, private sector housing demand sluggish. Rise does not disturb overall picture of sector cooling off which will cheer Reserve Bank.APP

Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD : A range market of 1.2890 - 1.3170 is expected when the market is trading below 1.3166. Key quantised levels are acting like super magnets in my system. There is a great uncertainty when the market is trading below 1.3071. The sequence of movement between ranges are random walk.The market will look positive when it is trading above 1.3166.


Melbourne Qindex 09:29 GMT March 29, 2004
USD/CAD : Key quantised levels from my 22-day and 44-day cycles are 1.2889 - 1.2966 - 1.3071 - 1.3166.

Ldn 02:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Housing date mainly up on Apartment Building not Private housing - economist say RBA to still sit on hands as Global economy in question..

Gen dk 02:12 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 02:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Tell you what Farmacia, I will follow that lead. Shorted @ .7489 myself

melbourne farmacia 02:05 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Shorted Aussie at 0.7500 - target, for another day. GT

brisbane sunstate 02:04 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC Jerry 01:57
I think gep,s post sums it up just one of those things
gl

Dallas GEP 01:36 GMT March 30, 2004
EJ, USD CAD has very strong support level around 1.3050 that should hold if repatriation doesn't happen. THE ONLY reason usd/cad got this low in first place was repatriation which WAS NOT anticipated by anyone I am aware of.

Dallas GEP 02:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry I don't have a tripled up position. Are you busting my chops or what???

ICT ML 02:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
OMIL...I am holding the euro longs for another couple 4 hr candles to see if we can get a bit more before I get a sell signal in Ldn session.

NYC Jerry.....I looked at my bag of tricks and I cannot in good faith say I see it bottomed just yet, but it appears to be close to it. Maybe it will biounce around a bit to finish unwinding the studies . On a plus, it IS in a place in the techs that a strong move up from could possibly be seen, but can't swear to that for you.

Been in your shoes a few times...not following others but just being stubborn myself. It will work out one way or another.

Dallas GEP 02:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, CAD repatriation was for settlements on their oil accounts....They SHOULD be done but WTH really knows.

NYC Jerry 02:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, what would be a good stop loss level on your tripled up position? What is your target please? I might do as well. TIA

Dallas GEP 02:00 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Still have GBP/USD short, stop is at 1.8236, TP @ 1.8145

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 01:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
CAD long ? cant say go time just yet ,but it should be ok medium term , canadian gdp comes out on wedn , expected change from .5 to .1

NYC Jerry 01:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Sunstate, thank you friend. I don't want to sound too naive, but did the CAD have a year end too? Is that why there has been REPATRIATION? When will repatriation stop? TIA

Dallas GEP 01:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Sold eur/chf @ 1.5612 STOP @ 1.5645 TP @ 1.5480

GA TJ 01:52 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Have the BOJ/MOF Sweathearts been up thier mischevious ways of late. Was looking at the channel on the 60 min chart. Break and go Long otherwise will let the Short side go if those funny guys from Tokyo have been active.

la ej 01:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
here here to that. Just making sure!

Dallas GEP 01:51 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
EJ, I would never enter a possie just to make someone feel better. Therr are millions of dollars at stake here!!!

la ej 01:47 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ahh, i see what your looking @ on the dailies i got a double bottom at 3046

KL KL 01:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, Aussie Building approval up 1.3 % against -3% CNBC....so that was the spike. Now RBA may hike rate sooner...but deficit widening...that was what I meant my reverse TA....I wanted to short but the outcome was to long....in short no one knows.....stop loss is a friend

Philippines newtrader 01:45 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

good morning to all traders ! ! !

Dallas GEP 01:43 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
BTW EJ. look at 2 hour charts on USD/CADplus candle patterns. THAT is bullish IMO

brisbane sunstate 01:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC Jerry 01:28
Absolutely Not. stay with your poss. as is with stop loss as other posters has said and cover on any run up even if that is with a loss just be happy that you get out with most of your money
gl

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ML there are stops up here for the eur/usd and I don’t know if this move for eur/usd has enough steam. I am moving my stop to secure profits at this point.

SF MRZ 01:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Fibo betting strategies sometimes work. but you can only lose so many in a row. 1,2,3,4,8,13,21,34 --- you need 87 dollars in your pocket to play one dollar.

KL KL 01:38 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Looks like Asian session showing US$ weakness.....this is where I feel like shorting but base on my reverse TA...it is time to buy for easy 20-40 pips on GBP, EUR...AUD..IMHO...somebody please publish the fib level or support resistance level....

ICT ML 01:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP...not so true anymore freind ...some spectacular losing trades were made worse by my insistance I knew where everything was going all the damnn time. I rarely SAR anymore....I pull a Texan hedge first and try to stop the equity drain so I can think about what I should do next. I usually cut loose and find another trade to take.

Quito Valdez 01:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Montreal//
Merce for your kind advice. My trading is very very conservative, believe me, as you suggested. I'm making mental and written notes on lots and lots of things to follow up now and later. I'm not a "plug and play" type...realizing MANY factors go into trading and a lot of time in the saddle to boot. Pun intended. :{|)

Dallas GEP 01:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
EJ, USD CAD has very strong support level around 1.3050 that should hold if repatriation doesn't happen. THE ONLY reason usd/cad got this low in first place was repatriation which WAS NOT anticipated by anyone I am aware of.

Gen dk 01:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SF MRZ 01:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
If your pocket was 1,000 pennies, and I only had a penny in the market, then I might triple. imho

Sin HS 01:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Oz data out?

saratoga sam 01:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
The Triple Lindsey is great if you no how to master it....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:34 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I have said my bit about this controversy a few times about R/R and things of that nature to survive another fight. For the new people in this mess of a business, first of all you have to like it not for the money but just pure and simple like it. When you have some years and some fears behind you then you can think about making some money. My suggestion to use this forum at is best use the archives and read comments from the great ideas suggested in this forum you also have the help forum, which incredibly is full of helping ideas. Before you start asking question I suggest to read and learn from those ideas then ask the questions IMHO. That is of course my idea about the matter and I hope not to irritate anyone reading this. GL GT

la ej 01:32 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dalllas that's an interesting posititon (cad), I was looking at the technicals and I don't see any indicators, indicatating a move up. Any reason why you are going long? other than letting Jerry feel a lil better about his position?

NYC Jerry 01:28 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Is tripling a position a good idea? I cannot do again, but hope it goes higher. Thank you all for your kind help.

QC WC 01:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, just follow Qindex 00:44 post.

Dallas GEP 01:26 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Yeah that's true ML is a master at it, and I am not worth a shittt at it quite frankly (stop and reverse) . LOL

Dallas GEP 01:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Bought some usd/cad @ 1.3080 stop @ 1.3050 target 1.3120

QC WC 01:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Qindex 06:42 29 Mar, is Euro target now 1.2222?

Ldn 01:24 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ISLAMABAD (AP)--Intercepted radio conversations indicate al-Qaida's top intelligence chief may have been killed in fighting in Pakistan but no body has been found, intelligence officials say. The radio transmissions disclosed that a man named Abdullah had been killed and that the death caused a great deal of distress among the al-Qaida forces, a Pakistani intelligence official said on condition of anonymity.
"He was a very important person for al-Qaida," the official said Monday. He added that interrogations of suspected al-Qaida members led the Pakistanis to believe that Abdullah was the group's top intelligence official.

ICT ML 01:23 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Yes OMIL...it is finally looking good....slow and surely we go. Have TP at 1.2249 but might change that soon if it stalls out at figure

Montréal Taro 01:23 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez
As a newbie, you shouldn't be using Dallas rules, you should be taking only one lot per trade. Dallas is experienced, he konws he can make up in the next trades. You, you just want to learn for now, and hopefully, one day, if you still have $$$, you'll be making money. If you lose you money now, what are you gonna do if you get good later and have no money.
I'm not saying Dallas is not to be followed, he is one of the good trader on this forum.

ICT ML 01:22 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 01:15 GMT..that depends on your trading style, and whether or not you are CERTAIN of where it is headed when you reverse. Only do it when you know where it will run to and plan it so it will give you a small profit if it doesn't quite make it to where you are certain it is headed.

Used smartly it is a good tactic.

Ldn 01:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
A person starting to trade should only trade small lots - they have themselves to blame and should not be laying the blame
on Dallas - the fact he post his positions only give those looking for a trade a view on what is possible not an open and shut case for a profit for god sake

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:20 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
ML if you are still around the eur/usd long is starting to pay off I have layered and look for the test of 1.2200-10 soon IMHO. GL GT

Quito Valdez 01:18 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
OK GEP, I follow ya. Thanx again my good friend. This forum is my home.

Dallas GEP 01:18 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
AMC, A STOP and REVERSE is RARELY very successful!!!

bkk Cad 01:18 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
All my work I commit to the Lord, Amen. Goodbye and take care :)

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:17 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
bkk Cad 00:53 GMT March 30, 2004
LOL.
CU

Dallas GEP 01:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Please be aware Valdez, that I am more aggressive than most my friend.

pj amc 01:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
How important is it in the overall return you guys see to use stop and reverses?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 01:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
be carefull with gbp/usd. until 23.00 europe time.
selling position will be dominant.

Quito Valdez 01:15 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP...your example is excellent as a general rule for us newbies to follow..it's super clear. Thanks from me leastwise! I use even less of my cap % wise than you do...I'm still antsey! Lucky but antsey.

bkk cad 01:13 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
err take a look at the weekly CAD candlestick, there is a evening star doji, so this party can easily go to 1.2980 from ere imho.

KL KL 01:11 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry..I don't mean to ask you to give up...sometimes it take some $$$ to quicken our education. I realise that ccy is a game you need to stop loss and not get sentimental when the trade goes against you...20 - 30 pips is normal if you leverage big like 10 -20 lots...otherwise 50-60 pips if you leverage small 1-2 lots. Lastly follow the trend....I learn the hard way by trying to pick bottom and tops...wait for the trend to emerge and then make the 20-50 pips regularly.

Montréal Taro 01:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry
Everybody should do what they know, what they're good at. Or they have to learn to get good at it. While learning, they should not care about making money, they should care just about survival until they know enough to make money.
An electrician needs 3 years of schooling, ask everybody on this forum how many years they took before to be constant in this market. I never heard of anybody doing good in this market in few months.
If you follow somebody else's call, you have to follow his stop too. If you don't know his stop, ask, if he doesn't answer, pass until the next opportunity. And respect that stop.

bkk cad 01:08 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
My breakfast menu: Swissy: 1.20 Euro yen for brunch: 1.29
and Euro Dinner: 1.22 Mid-night snack: Aud .7545

shanghai bc 01:04 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   

It has been several days in a row where Asian sesions bought Dollar only to become a breakfast of Dollar sellers in London sessions..Today's Asian session,those folks joining in Asian session seem to be having a second thought at last..

nyc jk 01:04 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Irish - I agree, that's not exactly what I meant, if this is a true post I am sorry that Jerry has lost money on this trade. I gotta say though, it wasn't exactly the smartest move in the world to take a 2 mio position based on what an anonymous person on an internet forum is doing, and with no s/l at that. just wondering wtf he was thinking......

Saihat 01:03 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
usdcad

may go 1.3185

and

may go 1.2935-1.2870

NYC Jerry 01:02 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Thank you KL. I think ROB is right. I don't have any business here. I should have stuck to the mutual fund. Thanks you.

KL KL 01:01 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, I think you are leveraging too much. Try smaller amounts like one lot or two and ride with the flow. That way you lose 100s and not 1000s They are right about cutting loss. Try playing the mid term on one two lots ...it could also make you heaps. People play here on the hourly basis. When I say mid term...could be like Sell US against JAP as people are talking about that cross to be 100 by June and maybe 95 by Dec....If you work it out that could be a few grand. I too have lost heaps in currency...

Chicago Irish 00:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
JK:Nothing funny about being long Usd/Cad from 1.3271,Jerry seems sincere,I remember him following Dallas last week,must admit I lost 20 pips stopping out at the exact level where GEP and Jerry were doubling up at 1.3248 .

NYC Jerry 00:59 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
SEA ROB I see, thank you sir.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:57 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
bkk Cad 00:53 GMT March 30, 2004
ideally for 4 hours touch 1.2207.

Saihat 00:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
no one know the real dirction

Dallas GEP 00:56 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
These are the parameters that I use. Everybody's are different howver. I generally don't put more than 5% in any one position so in the case of a 100,000 account, I might have 5 LOTS or at most 10 LOTS. The combined postions should never exceed 20% or in this case $20,000. I generally do not like to run stops over 40-50 points. If I am going to layer in a long for instance I may take 3 lots long and then 3 lots again long but usually that's it, no more than two entries on same possie.

NYC Jerry 00:55 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
WC, I leveraged 10 times, but doubled up as did GEP did.

NYC Jerry 00:54 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I am sure. No one can hit the homerun first off the bat. What is your objective on your CAD position? Sam I do not understand friend?

nyc jk 00:54 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, this is surely a joke, you are just busting GEP's chops right?

SEA ROB 00:53 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
NYC Jerry - first of all, you have no business trading. That said, not as a criticism but as an observation, you can Hope the looney rallies from support here at 3060-80 to let you out at breakeven near 3260. Place a catastrophic stop Right NOW at 3040. Period. And good luck with your other endeavors...

QC WC 00:53 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry, if leveraged 10 times U$100T should only be U$1M, for U$2M position that is already leveraged 20 times.

bkk Cad 00:53 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Raden: Then goes to 1.22 right?

Montréal Taro 00:52 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Do you still long on usd/cad ? or did you cut the lost ?

saratoga sam 00:52 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Well Mr. Seinfeld you are quite comical... Is your wife as funny as you?

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:49 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
breakfast in eur/usd.LOL
sell at 1.2165 for 15 pips.

Dallas GEP 00:48 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry. FX is VERY difficult to be sure. Almost EVERYBODY loses money initially and most will continue to lose money even after learning the ropes so to speak.

NYC Jerry 00:46 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, when will you cut the position, or what is your objective please? TIA

NYC Jerry 00:45 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello Mr. Irish. No, my wife is already complaining at me about the investment. I was semi retired, and now I have to re-evaluate this. It seemed that foreign exchange was easier the way people are so cavalier about it. At the end of the day, it is more difficult than I thought.

Dallas GEP 00:45 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Irish, does make a great point, Jerry, At some point in time you will have to cut bait. I think that is around 1.3040 IMO but that is something you will need to decide.

Melbourne Qindex 00:44 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:13 GMT March 28, 2004
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3159. The pattern of my weekly cycle charts suggest that the market is likely to trade between 1.3068 - 1.3341 initially this week. ...............(Suggestion : Maintain long position when the market is trading above 1.3068)......................................................

Chicago Irish 00:42 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry....Are you still going to hold if it goes to 1.2850?

Saihat 00:41 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
what you loss is already loss

if you avrage , by end you will loss all your money

Dallas GEP 00:40 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Jerry. my objective is to try and help you!!!

NYC Jerry 00:38 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Ok thank you. What is your objective on this?

Quito Valdez 00:37 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham & Or//
Was away...Thanx guys for the advice! -:_) Will hold my Euro possie for a bit for a wait/see since I can't pip trade here in bananaland.

Dallas GEP 00:36 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
OK Jerry, I think the potential LOW on the cad will be around the 1.3050 to 1.3060 area and the upper Bollinger Band is 1.3273 on the 2 hour chart so my opinion is you are NEAR the low point. It would be foolish to add any more longs on USD/CAD at this point IMO. So if you DON'T want to enter any new possies on other pairs, your position should get much better. Eurp amd POUND both LOOK heavy so USD/CAD should long under that scenario

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:35 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone here is my thought on eur/usd. There is a range right now on this pair as it bounces of the option barrier (1.2050) and the 100ma (1.2165-70) on the 1hr chart which keeps it capped off for now (5days in a row). I believe we will be range trading until the numbers come out on Friday (unemployment). I have resistance around 1.2200-10 area with intraday indicators in O/B territory IMHO. GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 00:30 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
good morning.

KL KL 00:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP, are you short AUD already...data out on building approval projected to have dropped 3%. In view of this general consensus...you would expect people to price in the figure. On a shorter term I have been hearing -ve AUD on this forum...lead the way and I will follow you (small amount)...let me know if you long or short AUD and at what level. data will be out in one hour

NYC Jerry 00:29 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
The FX Trek charts show good support at 1.2850, but that is a ways off.

NYC Jerry 00:27 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Hopefully it will go higher so I don't have to keep working.

NYC Jerry 00:25 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
I have a $100,000 account. I laverage 10 times. So that means I have a $ 2 million dollar position on because I doubled up just like you did at an average of 1.3271. Currently the loss is $ 28,430.00 on my $100,000 account.

NYC Jerry 00:21 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Well, not really, I am pretty buried right now already.

boulder dat 00:16 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
GEP....

i'm actually short already. i feel overall that euro and cable will come down from here. but, this slow trickle up all afternoon has me wondering if maybe there is going to be some kind of pop up in this one here sooner rather than later.

Dallas GEP 00:14 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
That last post was for Jerry

Dallas GEP 00:14 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Ok the reason I did that was to get out at BE. The repatriation of the CAD dollar is what happened later that drove it down to these current levels.

There are a couple of things you can do here. Do you have enough equity to take some NEW positions on other pairs???

Dallas GEP 00:10 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
DAT, this should happen in Asia IMO

boulder dat 00:07 GMT March 30, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:11 GMT March 29, 2004
what time frame on this one?

 




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