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Forex Forum Archive for 03/31/2004

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Dallas GEP 23:59 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GBP/YEn short appeared to be biggest mover so far on news

bkk boun_bough 23:57 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Gep, wow what fluke timing, I just went short eur/yen.
Praise God! Have a good day all :)

nyc sa 23:57 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Tankan +12 last time +7. positive but could be a max for some time to come Already factored in the usd/ yen ??.

pj amc 23:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I say short aud/jpy and eur/jpy right here. am i wrong in doing so ?

Dallas GEP 23:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
TANKAN numbers are good YEN positive

Dammam Ahmad 23:52 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Hello ... may I know your recommendations for the time bieng?
Thank you

Nottingham Daniel 23:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
The Economic Calender I have on my system says 31 March 04 – GMT 23.50 – (I asked Gep the time of the report as I could not find the calendar) – so as we have put the clocks forward in the UK we are not in GMT but BST – time – but as I am looking at my clock I assumed I was still in GMT time – Therefore the Forex Form clock is the time to follow for the TANKEN report - I am sorry for the confusion GEP! -

Brisbane L 23:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
It is 8.49 in Tokyo

Brisbane L 23:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Market seems now to be targeting lower DLR/YEN traders positioning for strong March BOJ tankan 2350 GMT with the sentiment index for large manufacturers tipped 10vs7

saratoga sam 23:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas 6:50pm eastern time....

Dallas GEP 23:40 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
the TANKAN report that is!!!

Dallas GEP 23:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
So what is the corrected GMT time now guys on the REPORT??? Sorry for the confusion

Nottingham Daniel 23:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Sorry I have it wrong - GMT is one hour behind BST - it late so I must get some sleep - its been a long day today!

Nottingham Daniel 23:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 23:25 GMT March 31, 2004
Nottingham Daniel 23:10 GMT - Is BST one hour ahead of GMT in summer?

In the UK I would say we are entering summer - GMT is one hour ahead of BST - now it is 00.32 -1st april 2004 - April fools day - I don't don't know if you have the same day in Aus - I hope this answers yr question

clon glenn 23:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Daniel

We put clocks forward one hour last weekend, so BST is now one hour ahead of GMT - GVI's GMT times are right mate

Tankan out at 00:50 BST

Gen dk 23:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 23:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham Daniel 23:10 GMT - Is BST one hour ahead of GMT in summer?

Nottingham Daniel 23:10 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:00 GMT March 31, 2004
GMT

It must be BST as its oo.10 GMT now - BST is one hour behind and on the forum it says GMT but it is not! I know as I live in GMT - UK

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
What is the date of next FOMC ?

nyc sa 23:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
thnx Dallas , I feel whavever happens to both the yen and the euro after the release of reports tonite ,cable ans swiss franc will be the beneficiaries. Euro still could surprise to the uside against dollar ,cable and SFR follow suit .

Dallas GEP 23:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GMT

Nottingham Daniel 22:59 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:47 GMT March 31, 2004
23:50 on TANKAN

Thanks - is this GMT or BST

Dallas GEP 22:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Most data releases will push price action in the direction of the release (most times) but then the pricing acton will have a tendancy to go back to the overall trend BEFORE the release. So even IF report is bad, JPY could be sold off initially but then in my opinion we could see some yen buying again. Course if the intial push is strong enough it will take out those stops on the long yen positions before it swings back long JPY direction again.

Eilat Dolphin 22:52 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ The MOF was shooting at almost 1 million $ per minute all during march. If they still got money, wich they do, they'll keep the guns going. If I understand anything in strategy, that is...

Dallas GEP 22:51 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GBP/JPY has similiar sell candle. These JPY positions may be squaring out prior to data.

nyc sa 22:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Hi Dallas ,what's ur feeling on Tankan , maybe not as good as everybody thinks , they pushed it lower past few days ahead of the report ,makes u think why ?

Dallas GEP 22:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Pretty good size SELL candle on AUD/JPY 30 minute affecting AUD/USD Pull up both charts and you will see similarities

GVI john 22:49 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION —Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2310…$/yen 104.35
DJIA 10,358, -24 pts…NASDAQ 1,994, -6 pts
10-yr 3.84%, -6 bp’s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:

For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
Full text on GVI...

Dallas GEP 22:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
23:50 on TANKAN

Dallas GEP 22:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
As far as Aussie goes, AUD/JPY has a very direct relationship in regards to the movement on AUD/USD. If you beleive the AUD/JPY will short (as I do) then the AUSSIE will short as well. All IMO of course.

Nottingham Daniel 22:43 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:38 GMT March 31, 2004
TANKAN

Gep - What time does this report come out!

hk ab nzd 0.6 22:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
gep// the eur/jpy is still quite heavy.

but this week movement is enough for me and lucky that I can still swim here.

Dallas GEP 22:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
A few

Eilat Dolphin 22:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Thanks, I forgot! (was partying). Is Dallas like Mecca: they got prophets too ?

Dallas GEP 22:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
TANKAN I mean LOL

Dallas GEP 22:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I never said I could type!!! TANKEN LOL

Dallas GEP 22:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
It is customary for dealers to ask some of their guys to come in early on days that imporatnt data comes out. Sometimes you will see Asian based position taking BEFORE they are officially are at WORK so to speak.

hk ab nzd 0.6 22:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
gep Tankan.

Dallas GEP 22:34 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
This tanken report could really move JPY crosses, DO NOT play without stops and you may wish to WAIT until report is out to take any new JPY possies.

Eilat Dolphin 22:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP/ Why should anything half hourly start a direction before the Asian boys finish their morning tai chi ?
OK, I'll let you have 34 pips on the Y. At best.

Do you see the Aus doing some sledge to its equator soon ?

Minneapolis U-Genius 22:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Already Shorted @ 128.28, a little earlier before your post

Dallas GEP 22:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
BTW, the only one of those that hasn't been a pain is the current Euro shorts. Eur/chf shorts worked out pretty well last night.

Dallas GEP 22:30 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Well ML, I tell you what's up. Got out of some usd/chf SHORTS today that were a PITA. Still have some GBP SHORTS I need to work out. Got eur/jpy shorts. eur/usd shorts, aud/usd shorts, eur/gbp longs. That's about all and I believe JPY gets bought up again tonight depending on Tanken.

Dallas GEP 22:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Genuis you might wait for a pip up first.

Minneapolis U-Genius 22:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
yep GEP, thanks for your comments, going short now.

ICT ML 22:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
what up GEPster....

covered my long cable possie at 1.8460 and the euro at 1.2305. Think I'll se what the Asia session does before I jump back in. Could see a dip to buy into again. 1.8370 area needs to hold if we are to see another shot at 1.8550-8600 range top. 4 hr stuff says still has a bit of room to climb on both before they swing back down though

Dallas GEP 22:23 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Starting to see JPY action NOW genuis

ltn th 22:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
iom stan 21:39 // An interesting question. A very uninformed view is that because many of those curencies and economies have been underperforming for years the opposite could happen as internal ecomomies and trade rationalisations kick in. The situation of the union is quite different to when east germany was reunited and it is better situated to benefit form the merger.

Dallas GEP 22:21 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
JPY crosses will probably dictate action. Euro/YEn shorts will pull dowm Euro/USd even with POUND at this level. GBP/JPY shorts will pull down GBP but NOT as dramatically as what euro will short IN THEORY anyway.

Minneapolis U-Genius 22:20 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanks, Gep. I'm still waiting for more signals on 30 min charts,
I don't the same situation that happened yesterday on EUR/USD, when my system indicated short and then within half an hour changed the signal to Long.
When do think we'll see more action on JPY?

Dallas GEP 22:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
YEP genuis already short put stop @ 126.63 and try it 126.30 is first support.

Minneapolis U-Genius 22:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
i'm still waiting for few more candles below 60 SMA on 5 min chart. But my system indicated a short signal on 5 min chart already. ANy comment would be appreciated

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 22:06 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
already did, and im out for now

Minneapolis U-Genius 22:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hello, is anyone considering going Short on EUR/JPY pair?

iom stan 21:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
so what happens to the euro on the 10th of May with all the new 'associate' currencies that will start to tie into the euro, surely it will add to the weakening effect ?????

Nottingham 21:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 18:53 GMT

I heard the medical school was one of the best in England but I can also tell you that the female to male ratio is about 4:1, much like the rest of the city...now don't all move here at once lol

Rivonia PipPirate 20:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
vancouver jpb 20:20
and the nurse said "sure pick me up at 7pm"

vancouver jpb 20:20 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
What a stingee Euro...

So I was giving blood last week and the nurse asked me if I've payed for sex in the last year.

I replied "does dinner count?"

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:07 GMT March 31, 2004
Good call on the eur/usd long position. GL GT

pj amc 20:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
anyone looking to short aud/jpy. a strong tankan number would bring this pair down, in my opinion. Any feedback is appreciated.

prague viktor 20:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh :Thank u sir,I hope u will post it here tomorrow G/L G/T

Livingston nh 19:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Prague viktor - re:NFP - I'm pretty much in the consensus figure camp right now - I'll have an estimate tomorrow after ISM figure and initial claims figures - any surprise may be in the manufacturing and construction jobs

Gen dk 19:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

washington MMM 19:40 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
censored Barcelona i better get out NOW then......LOL

Barcelona Tony 19:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
washington MMM 19:32 GMT ... too obvious trades (even I am into them) ... expect losses 4 u (and me) ... shark's trap has not finished.... Iam never wrong with gut feelings -despite never trade them unfortunately !!! LOL-

washington MMM 19:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
short euro 1.2305...short Aussie .7655 with stops @ 1.2335/ 7675......GL

Dallas GEP 19:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
A few words regrading ECB meeting. This is just my opionion but I would think there would be squaring out of some of those euro long postions before then. As I mentioned that the JPY would be bought against all currencies last night, I again beleive it is very possible for that scenario to happen again especially in lieu of thr retracements we have seen just recently (104.34 usd/jpy vs. low of 103.39, 128.38 E/YEN vs. 126.60 low etc.). Also my opinion people are much LESS reluctant to buy pound against the dollar right now vs. Euro against the dollar so that may be we all of a sudden have all these POUND buyers. With that in mind, I would:

Short Euro with stop above most recent high
Look for opps to BUY yen against the other currencies
STAY away from the POUND (GBP/USD) and don't try to top pick it yet for a short. Euro/JPY BTW is a good SELL here with stop above 129.00 IMO.

Van jv 19:17 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
P 90% no change

nyc sa 19:16 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
any chance of a pop in the usd /yen tonite ? any likely surprise that might help the dollar ? any guesses ?

prague viktor 19:16 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh: pleas sir can u tell me ur exp.for the NFP I know its too early but the last time u help me a lot G/D

vancouver jpb 19:15 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
VAN.... There is a possiblity that there might be a rate cut.

But why.... the Euro has been out of control as late.

Remember there a US ISM coming out tomorrow.... that will also have an affect on the $.

Re: Supermarket Strike ending.... No those aren't new jobs, but it sends a message of workers going back to work. Something to watch, considering thats what the report is about.

LA saint3 19:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
anyone has a guess what will be the outcome of the ECB rate tomorrow??

Livingston nh 19:09 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
fwiw - supermarket workers will reflect tomorrow in unemployment continuing claims but I don't believe it will affect Friday's NFP because they are not "new" jobs

Gen dk 19:08 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Van jv 19:06 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Vancouver jpb
RE:Tomorrow I'll be playing ultra short possies deal with the EBC""//---do you expect .25 cut?

vancouver jpb 18:56 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Valdez.... The gossip looks like an up move to the jobs report. The supermarket strike in Cali ending, etc.

BUT.... This is the end of the first quarter and the as of right now the majors averages have declined since year open. Small caps on the other side are gaining.

My bet is the USD gaining across most pairs.

But just in case, I'll be waiting for the release.

Everybody probaly remembers last month..... Margin Call City.

I was almost one myself, luckly I hedged on the down move and recouped the loss over the next day.

Tomorrow I'll be playing ultra short possies deal with the EBC, 15-30 pips max. In and out. Should be good for 200-250 pips for the day. The close we get, the quirky its gonna get.

Friday Let the move go and get in on the momentum. When it TOPs or Bottoms. Reverse and double up on the retraction.

GL, GT

Gen dk 18:54 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Van jv 18:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez///Your is lovely place, loved Quito , , Cuenca but worked Guyaquil--hated that stnking spot full of black rats/20 Y ago -presidential irrigation project////agree with Nottingham essentially in all..he knows his line ../ lovely spot and good Univ. / .
We may have lot of unexpected noise ahead of all levels disturbing tech. //, GL, GD

Gen dk 18:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

prague viktor 18:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Van jv :Yeah china agree with u and now the oil ,the yen reaction it was the first for the oil,lets wait and see how it will be the EURO reaction.G/L G/T

Quito Valdez 18:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Right on Vancouver. Thanks too!

I'm parked in my base c'ncy right now which is USD, so I'll have to be quick Friday. Just your reaction to all this...what are you favoring now...a bull or bear USD come Friday's news? I guess I'm asking what you think the news will be in essence.

Gen dk 18:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Valdez 18:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanks again Knottingham. I've been 2 busy with two construction projects to keep my eyes on the news and econ as much as I want. Thanks!!!

Van jv 18:07 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   


Nottingham 17:47////Re Fundamentals///Seems to me we may have overall world slowdown, now Europe /Stagnates a confidence, retail/ China/Asia some slowing this year and Japan may not last as now expected---only sure maybe inflation , pollution and fear??? Re Pollution am concerned about China , what may be too much for environment/shock--and concern about all the new data + consider Pentagon Report , mix it with War President @?????

Nottingham 17:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 17:39 GMT

Recent employment indexes/indicators suggest not to expect a great deal from payroll number but most economist (admittedly as of yest) have been looking for triple figure gains at least...the final number will be boosted by one off gain from supermarket workers so it ought to come in positive at the very least, but it does mean that even a +100k number is likely to diappoint the market a lot...also it should be noted that revisions to prior month and the breakdown of the new month are sometimes just as important as the headline...even with euro at 1.23 I think a gain of less then 100k would still see the euro move up to 1.2350 at least...we do have the ECB tomorrow so we could be starting from a lower base come Friday but I think a cut is unlikely although at current levels for euro, it means not much relief rally imo opinion as press conference is likely to be neutral at the very best...gl gt

mex sjs 17:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
quito valdez, am in ur site again...charlamos

vancouver jpb 17:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Vaaldez..... don't be in the market prior to the US release.....

Remember what happened last month.... 100,000 points below forcasts

Let it hit, then ride the wave.... so you give up 50 pips on the way up, but you don't loose!

Quito Valdez 17:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
NY JP //
click the links on the right hand side bar that say "FX Training" and "Bookstore". Also if you put the keywords:
"forex training books" into a good search engine (without the ""s) , you'll come up with pages of options on training and books both, some being the options you'll see if you just click the links at right.

A lot of trading houses have free tutorials too. So "forex broker"

Check the Help forum right here on GV and dig into the archives for such publications and comments...there's a bunch there, trust me.

Quito Valdez 17:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanx brother Nottingham 4 ur advice. Was confirming my newbie suspicions i.e. 1.22 handle w/ someone who's been around 4 a while.

Question #2 on the Valdez quiz...Do U think bad news from USA Friday (the employment thing) is priced into the mkt alrdy or might we see a twitch in the mkt? It seems traders have trended towards -less- than optimal news, hence my "priced in" suspicions.

Nottingham 17:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 17:25 GMT

Aussie and kiwi are closest to being o/b so I'm naturally most focused on them right now...I don't get to be given a gift, but I will take any opportunity to short either of them at o/b levels ahead of the US payrolls report...personally I believe it will be a stinker as always, but it isn't about what I believe only what the market does so I expect the market will continue to buy a few dollars ahead of it...that's my nearterm focus but I know some traders are using the levels I mentioned to Quito Valdez for cable and euro not long ago...gl gt

pj amc...I tend to avoid jpy crosses since they don't always obey technicals for obvious reasons...the parameters I trade to means I very much rely on technicals being observed at some stage and the drawdown of jpy crosses on certain occasions in the past means I can't sanction trading them

or 17:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Still waiting for aussie to hit 0.7655/60 to short it for at least something with a 0.75 handle.

Van jv 17:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Qindex///EUR////PERHAPS, because the big gap, but rather OB condition,, we could get after miner setback to easier target 1.2450---unless SCB, empl. or other surprise

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Here are my thoughts for eur/usd if 1.2320 holds fib retracement will be 1.2215-20, 1.2180-85 and 1.2145-50. We have TL at around 1.2260 and 250ma, 20ma around the 1.2235-45 area with good support around 1.2200 area. The news coming out Thursday and Friday will set the tone for the next move for eur/usd. Right now we are in a bullish up trend on this pair IMHO. GL GT

pj amc 17:28 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nottingham............thanks. which ones do you focus on ?

KL KL 17:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 17:05 GMT March 31, 2004 , looks like GBPUSD and EUR and AUD losing power here...not sure to short gbp at this level and reverse at 1.83 as per your view....or buy at 1.83xx and hope for up later...are you in?? long or short??

Athens 17:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Excellent market conditions for all tastes, contras, direct trades etc. And perfectly technical levels all day long in all pairs.

Gen dk 17:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Nottingham 17:14 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 17:11 GMT

in the current climate I would avoid it...imo trade it only if you have set objectives outside the realms of daytrading...bottom line is there are easier pairs to trade

pj amc 17:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
can i get some thought on aud/jpy. i have never traded it and was wondering what to do here

Nottingham 17:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 16:37 GMT

Don't see anything major...a dozen pips can be down to almost anything in this market...looking at the broader move, it fizzled out ahead of 2330 resistance, similar to cable which gave up ahead of 8435...both of those need to be cleared in order to see further upside...if it's not forthcoming or if they are broken but with no followthru, you can then expect to see 1.83 and 1.22 handles again I would think...gl gt

usa tom 17:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
ab, is it time to reverse and long aud and nzd now? I remember your stop on the nzd was at .6681. TIA.

prague viktor 16:46 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 :the 1,25++++do u think on friday if the NFP is less than 100,000 g/l g/t

Gen dk 16:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LHR B747 16:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Valdez: remember me @ 1.2550++++

meanwhile, buy yourself the new SLK, I would buy it also for myself but I NEVER PAY FOR GERMAN CARS!!!

This model (i.e. SLK) will bring within days a huge demand for EUR, it a real good piece!!!

Quito Valdez 16:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham// eur/usd...that pair. TIA

Gen dk 16:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 16:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 16:30 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt 16:19 GMT, thank you for reminding me to look at EUR/JPY. But for intraday, near 104.20 may worth a try for me to steal some chicken pips . Re EUR/$, the strength of CAD keep me away from selling this pair and avoid any loss.

Nottingham 16:28 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
LONDON savage 15:46 GMT

usdcad seems like textbook today...hope you managed to catch some of the downside from 3150 too...gl gt

Quito Valdez...which pair?

Quito Valdez 16:21 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
B747// I knew you were there, baby! Get those tootsies cleaned up amigo. BTW when I said that I meant it in a happy way, not insulting...whatever, 1.2450 will do me proud. Gotta stupid BIG long at that price that I have to sell.

eur/usd into 2nd fast peak...fall coming shortly (typical of this pair)? ...should a s/l of 1.2285 be set in case I'm right y'all?

hong kong nt 16:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:06 -- judging from GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, i guess market not yet ready to push usd/jpy below 103 this week. how about buying usd/chf? unless 1.25 line is lost, chance is there for a wave C rebound to 1.3333...

Montréal Taro 16:18 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
No problem. I have found what I was looking for few hours ago I didn't say anything 'cause I want to see if yours was different.

LHR B747 16:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Valdez: keep your lips clean and shining, 250pips to go


XXXXXXXXXXX

HK Kevin 16:06 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt, how about short USD/JPY near 104.20, s/l above 104.55?

HK Kevin 16:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hong kong nt. Your wife is excellent that calling USD/CAD 1.3100 last week. Having stop at be of my long USD/CAD this Mon, enter short at 1.3151 an hour ago, 1st t/p 1.3050.
Re: EUR, my chart reading will turn bullish if closing abover 1.2260 today NY close.

Quito Valdez 16:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP or Nottingham...ya know why the spike a few min ago? By the way, I miss your posts GEP...can't blame U tho... the ingrats!

Belgrade Knez 16:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro

Sorry Montreal, but that was the same system that I want it to send to you. Don't know for other one.

SOFIA trader 16:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
he is well the wire said...

but I wonder after the wire posts me several stories by economists that say the US data figures were not good but the overall picture was fine... why the EUR buying pressure is so strong???

hong kong nt 16:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Hope Dr Greenspan may get well soon...

Montréal Taro 15:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
london phil, Oz sz
"The 123 system" is a pattern. The link in the help forum is about 123 forex trading system. I didn't find what I was looking for.

Belgrade Knez 15:54 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
london phil

No problem.
Anyway, it's take ages to get reply from Jay, therefore this info is usefull for Montreal Taro.

london phil 15:49 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sorry belgrade got you two mixed

LONDON savage 15:46 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham looks like our cad analysis was spot on well done

hong kong nt 15:46 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- you know what, while i long usd/cad at 40 this afternoon, my wife covered her usd/cad short at 40 too...

Belgrade Knez 15:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
london phil

I don't know why did you address this to me? I am not the one requesting 123 system, just trying to send it to Montreal Taro.

Toronto Silverfox 15:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Fed says the Green one is OK

hong kong nt 15:40 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- hope usd/cad may mark a short term low today, on yen crosses, guess good size Jap fund maybe be busy in buying euro bonds today. 100 yen +/- 3 maybe viewed as good medium term buy...

london phil 15:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
los angeles has posted a 24 page link to the 123 system in the help section

mex sjs 15:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
quito, am in ur site

Montréal Taro 15:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
Thank you, I didn't received it yesterday. Do not know why.

OK SZ 15:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Knez, may I ask what the 123 is about?

Quito Valdez 15:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Mex sjs//

online amigo? I sold my EUR....hope U did same.
charla....

Belgrade Knez 15:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

Montréal Taro

I sent mail yesterday. However, I just sent mail to Jay requesting your e-mail. As soon as he reply to me I will send it to you again.

Quito Valdez 15:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
chicago cal 15:05 GMT //

...you figure gov numbers will be low at Friday's report...any news leak you know about? TIA amigo.. :^{)

SOFIA trader 15:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
eurusd - too much eur buying?

anyone with opinion from a dealing desk... it leaped too high and it must have a break but I wonder if the the trend has turned upwards??

Quito Valdez 15:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Sold eur/usd long 1.2304 bought last week @ 154 pips

Montréal Taro 15:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Belgrade Knez
I never received your email about 123 system yesterday. Please can you try again, ask Jay for my email adress.

or 15:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
20 more pips up on AUD/USD and get ready with your shorts!

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:18 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sp// today I have enough (both pips and stress) now closed my eur/gbp and eur/chf with 50 pips in total.... (not enough for the beasty yen loses) will work harder later.

gd night.

boulder dat 15:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
those numbers weren't too good. we will probably have a dismal employment number on friday as well.

sgp sp 15:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
ab, just let me know when...

chicago cal 15:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
cables also a buy above 1.8415 for 1.8550

gl,gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:10 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Chicago PMI 57.6 compared to 64
Factory orders rose by .3%

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:09 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
who dares toss the coin on eur/jpy?
:)

Belgrade Knez 15:08 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

any data about Feb Factory Orders, please?

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:08 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
After eur/cad, it will be eur/aud?

chicago cal 15:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
technically speaking; euro is a buy on a sustained break above 1.2300 for 1.2440 for those of you that can hold onto a trade for roughly 24 hours

IST Sez 15:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Chicago PMI 60,4 vs 67,5

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
it's interested to see how Japs lift all the yen crosses at the same time.

Bandung Dewan 15:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Time to sell GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Belgrade Knez 15:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   


data please?

Belgrade Knez 15:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   


data please?

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sp// maybe it's better to catch the fast dip in dlr/chf to go long on Fri.....

perth rick 14:59 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
this is wat gbp does stops the shorters out then tumble down so fast.

Nottingham 14:59 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...real upside can only start if 3150 taken out (I think there will be much seeling interest around + just above there...but if taken, would then be free to move up to 10 day sma at some point tomorrow...gl gt

sgp sp 14:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sorry, missed it....was not at computer.
will put up a limit short.
:)

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:52 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sp, nzd.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// dlrcad outside day reversal likely....

sgp sp 14:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
ab, 6681 for eur/gbp or nzd/usd?

clon glenn 14:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
thanks phil

london phil 14:23 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
on the daily charts for aud usd looks like an inverse head and shoulder neckline was broken at 7550 ish and could go 300 points higher (neckline to the top of the head) also you have a nice higher low
just looking at the bigger picture during this dull intraday session

madrid val 14:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
weird rumours arround...

perth rick 14:17 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
i am not stuck with 1.93+ i am very flexible for example i can be short one day
perth Rick 12:04 GMT March 23, 2004
sold gbp at market 1.8430 for 1.80 gl to me.p

and long after a few days
perth rick 09:28 GMT March 29, 2004
eur (1.2115) gbp (1.8135) my strategy is to accumulate these ccys for 1.28 and 1.91+ gl to me.

it depends on wat my system tells me. right now my target is 1.8485 from there i see how price reacts.

melbourne farmacia 14:15 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
perth rick 13:48 GMT March 31, 2004
Good luck to you. IMO 1.7500 first, but that's what makes the spec market flow. GT

clon glenn 14:15 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hong kong JC

Many of us are full time and we'd like to think we can make good money! days like this do NOT help and it might not be a coincidence that GEP and OMIL are conspicuous by their absence at the moment...they're usually around when there's money to be made!

[Cheeks have you trumped?]

Could someone please sit on this AUD??? I've been short forever!

GL/GT jc

hong kong jc 14:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Perth Rick. Thanks for your view. I gussed that you are a professional positional trader. What is the rationale support the bullish view of gbp? Thanks in advance.
Just a very quick poll. Are the friends here are full time professional trader? And I gussed that most of you can earn a good living here, am I right?

Stockholm za 14:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
HKG jc 13:28 GMT March 31, 2004

Would anybody can tell whether the head&shoulder formation on gbp daily chart is still valid. :-
As long as the R_T_ line is not broken it is ..

Any good guess should short on cable if this still valid. :- That is your choise & money.. You could even short your self in the head it would not matter me …….. lol
Happy trades……

perth rick 13:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
HKG jc 13:28 GMT March 31, 2004
i look for 1.93+.

Kaunas DP 13:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 13:39 GMT March 31, 2004

thank u for helping me to protect 1,8380 DNT, need 10 h more to hold...LOL

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 13:40 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
any opnions on the JPY/USD for a possible long from here ?

pj amc 13:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
just shorted gbp/usd at 1.8330 s/l 1.8350

IST Sez 13:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
CAN GDP -0,1 pct

Belgrad VM 13:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Sofia TNZ 13:28 GMT March 31, 2004
Kuks is this you or I mistake?

sao paulo Gabriel 13:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I´d like to know more about the tom/next. Is there any site tath I can see about th e rates os tom next?
Thanks

Mtl JP 13:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hs 13:31 ya.. 0.1 vs 0.5 last..

http://www.statcan.ca/english/dai-quo/

Tallinn viies 13:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Kaunas DP 13:27 - wishful thinking. want to sell there

Sin HS 13:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
CAD Jan GDP out?

pj amc 13:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
just covered usd/cad short +30 pips

Sofia TNZ 13:28 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I shorted @ 1.2259 in the morning and still think that the target is new test of 1.2050

HKG jc 13:28 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Would anybody can tell whether the head&shoulder formation on gbp daily chart is still valid. Any good guess should short on cable if this still valid. thanks advance!!!

Kaunas DP 13:27 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 13:07 GMT
why do u assume 1,2330 is so toppish in case we have no ECB cut and Friday is not that much impressive data wise

Tallinn viies 13:07 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
keep buying the euro here from 1,2215 down to 1,2150. stop at 40/45 area. target 1,2325/30. if this one hit RUN Forrest run...

hong kong nt 12:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk jn 09:57 -- i know a lamp with astonishing accuracy working in a local security firm. He helps me to achieve 9 winning HSF trades out of 10. The 1 losing trade happened on the day when he gave a comment of "neutral"...

GVI john 12:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.2220…$/yen 103.85
DJIA +4 pts… 10-yr 3.88%, -2 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI’s “Market Snapshot”:
CLICK HERE
We had figured the final day of the fiscal year would be a quiet one. Odds are that many local banks were on the sidelines, having closed their books for the year. I understand that the demand for yen came from overseas as many wanted to buy ahead of what is expected to be a strong Quarterly Tankan report on Thursday. One thing led to another and suddenly dollar stop-loss orders below the 105 level were triggered and the Bank of Japan did not bail them out. The $/yen has fallen to nearly four year lows. My best guess is that the Bank of Japan’s strategy was to clean out the stops at the start of the new fiscal year, presumably before Japanese fund managers start to place cash overseas for the new year. I do not believe they are gone from the scene, but I do believe that the scale of future intervention will not be on the same level as we have seen in recent months.

The total intervention figure for March was a massive Y4.7tln (about $45 bln). Now we know how they managed to drive $/yen up to the 112 level.

By way of contrast, the $/Europe moves have not been nearly as large. This is a pure yen move. I figure that the markets have the same view that we do, namely that this yen surge is highly suspect. These are very difficult markets because it is hard to guess what political decisions are being made in Tokyo, and the strategy of the Bank of Japan recently has been to be unpredictable. If fund managers start to move into European bonds again, the $/yen should stabilize and the eur/$ should gain. Expectations for an ECB rate cut in the mid-year period should be supportive of prices on bunds, and current 10-yr yields of 3.95% (vs. 1.44% on JGB’s) make them attractive for yen-based buyers.

As for the ECB meeting Thursday, short-term credit markets see no risk for a rate cut. One-week Euribor is 2.04%, one month 2.02% and eonia futures are placing prohibitive 92% odds against a cut. Furthermore, one survey of economists had 29 of 30 surveyed expecting no change. Thus a rate cut tomorrow would be a MAJOR surprise. The markets are anticipating ease in the second half of the year. This expectation should be supportive of bunds.

The BOE meeting is still a week away. It appears that more are starting to back away from expectations for a hike in April and are starting to focus on May. The market’s odds for a move by the May meeting approach 100%, but they are now about 50-50 for April.

The focus in the U.S. remains on the March non-farm payrolls on Friday. The consensus is for a rise of 120,000 or so, but we have heard +200-250K. We have yet to have seen a substantially weaker than consensus forecast.

OPEC is meeting today. It appears that they are going to go ahead with the planned April 1 production cut. My view on OPEC is that they see that they are getting away with restrained production. Their goal is to extract as much as they can from oil consumers without killing the global economy. It’s really quite simple and anything else they say is pure fluff.

A fire Tuesday at the third largest oil refinery in the U.S. in Houston could make gasoline supplies even tighter. I gather the fire was brought under control fairly quickly. Recall that Texas refineries were the subject of a recent warning on terrorism. One thing to keep in mind is that oil is a dollar based commodity and non-dollar economies can dampen the impact of rising oil prices in local currency terms by keeping their currencies strong vs. the dollar. The API figures at 15:30 GMT could be key.

In Canada, the January GDP report at 13:30 GMT will be closely watched. Data will continue to come under close scrutiny ahead of the upcoming Bank of Canada monetary policy decision on April 13. We expect a 25bp rate cut at that time.

February Factory Orders and the Chicago PMI are due today as well.

CALENDAR

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 31, 2004
13:30 GMT- CDA- January GDP, vs. +0.5%
13:30 GMT- CDA- February Industrial Product Prices, vs. +0.4%
15:00 GMT- US- Feb Factory Orders: vs. -0.5% in Jan
15:00 GMT- US- Mar Chicago PMI: vs. 61.4 in Feb
15:30 GMT- US- API/DOE Weekly Energy Inventories

THURSDAY APRIL 1, 2004
23:30 GMT- AUS- March PMI
23:30 GMT- AUS- Feb Qtr Job Vacancies, vs. +1.2% Nov Qtr
23:50 GMT- JPN- BOJ Tankan, vs. +7
10:00 GMT- EUR- Mar PMI: vs. 52.5 in Feb
10:30 GMT- UK- Mar PMI: vs. 53.2 in Feb
12:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Unemployment Rate: vs. 8.8% in Jan
12:45 GMT- ECB Governing Council decision
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US-Mar ISM PMI: vs. 61.4 in Feb, see 60.0

FRIDAY, APRIL 2, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- March Monetary Base
23:50 GMT- JPN- April Money Market forecast
12:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Producer Prices: vs. +0.2% in Jan
13:30 GMT- US- Mar Employment report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +21,000 in Feb, see +120,000
Unemployment rate: vs. 5.6% in Feb, see 5.6

Melbourne Qindex 12:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:23 GMT March 28, 2004
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The critical level of my weekly cycle is located at 105.56. The pattern of my weekly cycle probability chart suggests that the market is likely to trade between 104.53 - 108.68 initially. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is positioning at 103.49 // 104.53 and the mid-point reference is 104.01. The upper barrier is expected at 107.64 // 108.68 and the mid-point reference is 108.16. The market rhythm is represented by 104 pips (k=1.0398) and the weekly cycle normal trading range is 104.53 - 108.68 (Suggestion : Buy on dips is the preferred strategy for the coming week. The best entry level for long position is 104.53 - 105.56. Maintain long position when the market is trading above 107.64).

Weekly Cycle Quantised Levels

... 102.45, 103.49 // 104.53, 105.56, 106.60, 107.64 // 108.68 ...


Gen dk 12:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

cl krish 12:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

Hi guys ...
EURJPY is haveing a steep fall and 127 is very critival for the currency , below which its possibly headed for 120 and below.
My view is to go short with stop loss above 128.5. an initial support at 125 expected.

melbourne farmacia 12:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I wish - 0.7616

melbourne farmacia 12:08 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:42 GMT March 31, 2004
Al Qada connections ?

Sold more aussie 0.7816 fwiw..

Gen dk 11:54 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Stockholm za 11:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
fwiw......
DPUD @385
EUR/USD :-
Hourly Value P = ~12186
Key V P = ~12308
Clip V P = ~12139
Happy trades.........

LONDON savage 11:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 11:37 I agree i have a buy order just above that point if it doesnt break it than it will more than likely go back down to 1.3050 but from what i see on 1hr chart there is some good upward thrust

Bkk bounbough 11:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Cut cable long with small loss and sold eur/gbp instead at this seems to be a safer trade imo. Goodnight!

Nottingham 11:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
LONDON savage 11:34 GMT

some good offers above the figure...I would say its a pivot point>>>look for 3145/50 if eaten otherwise may fall to 3050...gl gt

LONDON savage 11:34 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
if usdcad breaks 1.3102 it should be good

pj amc 11:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
just shorted usd/cad at 1.3090

Gen dk 11:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lagos Styrax 11:27 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Good day all
Please has anyone got the feel of eur/usd testing 2270 again.
gl/gt

shanghai bc 11:17 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

TH 07:48 -- China is Australia's No.1 trading partner and investment target by now..And China invests heavily into Australia on long-term basis mainly into commodities field..The volume of participation including in forx field can only grow larger, China becoming the largest investor in Australia in coming years..On stronger Yen and China,Yen has been trading between 147-80 for the last 7 years and China did not lose sleep over it..

washington MMM 10:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP 103.25 haven't been seen since apr 2000 but ohhh well again its JPY.........LOL

Dallas GEP 10:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
MMM I would still be inclined to SELL usd/jpy NOT buy it.

washington MMM 10:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Believe its gonna test the 104.40-50 area before heading south again.......what do you think

washington MMM 10:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP thanks........tempted to buy USD/JPY around these levels with a stop below 10340 :)

Dallas GEP 10:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
MMM. dailies now indicate that .7650 area would be best for a SHORT . It could short from here based on 30 minute charts BUT safer to wait to see if .7650 is doable

saloniko 2004 nk 10:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 09:11

Welcome..

nk

bkk boun_bough 10:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham: Thanks :)

Gen dk 10:10 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 10:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
KL, the movement on GBP/JPY was due to the strength of the YEN and NOT the weakness of the pound. That's why gbp/usd did not short.

Nottingham 10:02 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
cable may well see support here at 8330...if not next is 8280...gl gt

bkk boun_bough 10:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
DOH! I should have waited for cable at hourly channel line a shade above 1.8300

bkk boun_bough 10:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
DOH! I should have waited for cable at hourly channel line a shade above 1.8300

Gen dk 10:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Athens 09:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
From Trendways page in the morning (8:26 GMT), I am postng it here as it is still valid and could serve again, at least for the day if not longer:

"A model projected level (call it kind of support but it's rather a kind of projected target instead) is 103.40-45 in $/JPY."

hk jn 09:57 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt which lamp newspaper? I need some light from lamps!

Dallas GEP 09:56 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
MMM nice job. The most frustrating thing for me is to have felt very strongly about the YEN move yet PERSONALLY I did not take any new yen positions. Really thought this YEN move would happen TODAY and not last night. I am VERY pleased though for you guys that made bucks and if you didn't, don't worry!!!, the yen will continue to gain strength after some consolidation.

washington MMM 09:49 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP ..........covered my USD/JPY short with 188 pips profit......maybe i shouldnt have did that now but you never know when BOJ will step in aggressivly

KL KL 09:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP, OMIL, raden and all you champion trader, Can you tell me why GBPJPY dropped so much but gbpusd not as much?? some time ago it was going in tandem now it like opposite....which would you trade lon or short now??

Dallas GEP 09:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
MMM wait to see failure first

Melbourne Qindex 09:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Sydney alimin 08:49 GMT - It is EUR/JPY and not EUR/USD.

hong kong nt 09:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- the best lamp newspaper expert taking about 95-100 dlr/yen, we may see some consolidation before getting down to said level...

washington MMM 09:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GEP is aussie sellable here or wait to see if 7650 fails first
thanks

prague viktor 09:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Gep:a very good call for the yen G/L

Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
103.91/96 uSD/JPY

Dallas GEP 09:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Something non-technical is occurring @ the 1.5580 area on Eur/CHF. TEchnically eur/chf should short at least to the 1.5550 area but consistent buying is happening at this 1.5580 level. It's POSSIBLE it COULD be SNB or at least some very large player that is BUYING eur/chf here.

Melbourne Qindex 09:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:26 GMT March 31, 2004
EUR/USD : My monthly cycle frequency chart indicates that the gap difference between 1.2086 and 1.2267 is big. Therefore it is conceiable that great effort is required to move the market between this quantised levels.

Nottingham 09:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
euraud...triggered by failure to close above 200 day sma but now facing potentially greater danger as I see shs formation on monthly charts; not quite the proportions of usdjpy but getting there...gl gt

washington MMM 09:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
good morning...........can anyone give the USD/YEN numbers fast please
thanksssss

Dallas GEP 09:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Closed short eur/chf's at profit.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
BC//ic.

shanghai bc 09:28 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

AB -- Sir Alan seems to be carrying hat for Bush recently..So, not sure when he will move on rates although inflation must be biting hard on the public..

prague viktor 09:27 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc:thank you sir and i wish u good day.

bkk boun_bough 09:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Closed short euro for bus fare and opened long cable with nimble stop. (all my work I commit to the Lord, Amen).

Porto PJT 09:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber 09:00 , seams eur/aud have a target to met first.imo.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
bc// you refer to FED to have rate hike soon right? Did I make a mistake?

van Gecko 09:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
CT DB 08:12 good day.. yep, you may be right on this pipless range bet until the s/t funnymentals are 'resolved'..
cheers

shanghai bc 09:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

VIKTOR -- Bush folks always wanted to have stronger Yen and they may be happier now..Guess Fed is doing their best to delay rate hikes as long as possible purely on political grounds..Raging commodity bull market plus historic low rates all points to rate hikes soon..Dollar may have a cyclical recovery when rate hike cycle starts in US..

sgp sp 09:16 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I am going pick a small short now...

prague viktor 09:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc:sir do u think if BOJ stop buying USD,the fed will be force to rate hik..thanks

hk ab nz 0.6 09:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sp// this downmove starts right 15 mins ago, fwiw.

hong kong nt 09:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- perhaps, shinkansen may make a brief stop at 103.4 today...

shanghai bc 09:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

NK 07:53 -- Good afternoon..Thanks for your kind words.. I am still a learner..Good trades to you..

Singapore Bless 09:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Any ideas where USD/SGD will go ?

sgp sp 09:09 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
ab, usd/nzd hit 0.6680+2 pips .....:) thinking of doing a small shorts if it tries again....

bkk Cad (boun_bough) 09:07 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Aud could get .7655-75 before pruned imho.

Sydney alimin 09:06 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
might have just seen the top of aud/usd for today *cross fingers*

hk ab nz 0.6 09:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
bomber, 'cos s/l washing is in progress.

Gen dk 09:05 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab nz 0.6 09:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// time for the other round reaction. A longer term one....

hong kong nt 09:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- c9 are getting their heads chopped off now. fwiw...

hk ab nz 0.6 09:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
tricky thick game....

selling all majors and leaving the nzd crosses to hedge....

shanghai bc 09:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

AB -- London is just a market place where all sorts of forex folks flock to buy and sell..It does not have to be London folks..It could be anyone from anywhere in the world with deep pockets who start setting the market direction on a given day..Same goes for NY and Tokyo sessions markets..In any case,Tokyo and NY still relatively small markets when compared to London as far as forex goes..

NZ Bomber 09:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Hey alimin
I tink the same that the aud should be going way down by now but just keeps on climbing............anyone know why???

hong kong nt 08:59 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 08:47 -- sorry, i don't know coz she won't talk to me for today...

hk ab nz 0.6 08:57 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
bc, thanks.

Sydney alimin 08:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
can people share some insights as to why aud/usd is so bullish? recent run of data suggest it should be the other way isnt it?

GER ad 08:52 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EZ Rachacha 08:32,
There is not an answer to your question, depends...
Only CB if intervene will buy 1 bln in a short time to cause big movements on prices.
Some time a buy order for 300 mil can stop a movement only for few minutes and than the movement will continue against the buyer. Other time the same amount bought at the right point can activate some stop losses and the market moves in the buyer direction 30-50 pips until the next resistance point. If the operation is repeated the new resistance point could bring other 30-50 pips...
So with 1 bln you can made more than 100 pips or only win some time - Depends!
Today few bln buy orders would not be enough to stop JPY from strengthening. GT & GL.

shanghai bc 08:51 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

Usd/Chf at 1.2700,Eur/Usd at 1.2260,maya have seen the floor and top of today's moves..Fwiw..

hk ab nz 0.6 08:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// seems london boys are selling eur.....

Sydney alimin 08:49 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
qindex, may i know ur daily cycle for eur/usd? it is now trading outside the range u last posted
if u need to do further analysis then just forget my question TIA

bkk Cad (boun_bough) 08:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Shorting eur/yen here is too risky for this little fish. I'd like to get some CAD if I can back around 1.3050 for sub 1.30. God willing.

hk ab nz 0.6 08:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// is your wife also seeing aud/jpy rushing for 72? I have got this calc.....

ln 08:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
one big focus from yest was lots of demand from japan for yen vs stg and aud. but with the move on yen o/n think this is no longer the case. prefer to sell yen crosses as opposed to being long/short cable or aud.

bkk cad 08:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Yawn! I just sold euro here, any views?

Melbourne Qindex 08:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is trading beyond the daily cycle normal trading range. In the mean time it is going to consolidate between 126.44 - 126.72. There is a great uncertainly when the market is approaching 125.83.

EZ Rachacha 08:40 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Edi Geo 08:36 GMT March 31, 2004

Ok, thanx, I knew there would be a bug somewhere, it's perfectly clear now. Cheers.

perrie como 08:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt she knows that since december I guess...take It easy

Edi Geo 08:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EZ Rachacha 08:32 GMT March 31, 2004

well assuming liquidity the same both sides...you buy at 1.2000 and it takes it to 1.2020..assume average 1.2010...so you sell them all out again starting 1.2020 it goes to 1.2000..avg 1.2010...sum = zero...very simplified version obviously

chicago cal 08:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
for all you cable fans buy above 1.8415 for 1.8550; technically similar to yesterdays 100 pip trade

gl

hong kong nt 08:34 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- multi year head and shoulder top on USD/JPY opens 95-97 in sight...

Brisbane L 08:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Yen at a 4yr high on the Dollar and some say heading to 101.25

EZ Rachacha 08:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Hello everyone,
Someone asked me a question about forex and I can't answer it but I think some of you guys can.
Let's say I have a billion dollar to invest and decide to buy euros with it at 1.20. Such a big amount will increase the price instantly right? let's say the price push to 1.2020 (just a supposition), then , if I close the position immediatly, I make 20 pips in some seconds?... I know it seems to easy, I must be wrong somewhere but... Please, just tell me what exactly happen in such a case, Thank you very much.(no, I don't have that money! :(

perth rick 08:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
will we see usd yen below 100 today

Melbourne Qindex 08:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market momentum is strong enough that we can see 125.83 soon.

hong kong nt 08:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- take 1/2 profit at 190.0...

perrie como 08:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
the art of living http://www.dhamma.org/art.htm

hk ab nz 0.6 08:16 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// ther eur/jpy is also crazy now with 300 pips at hands.

perrie como 08:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
yes austrialans last months were selling properties and stocks...not heavy for now, but selling...guess fears of inlation are strong and influency mortgages+less jobs have forced people to exit their investments, as counts made b4 new millenium were pure fantasy...as there is no exponential growth in reality, but movies

CT DB 08:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Goodday forum,
van Gecko 08:02
Although I agree with your assesment, I beleive that at least for the duration of this week with key data out we will remain range bound.

hk ab nz 0.6 08:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// this jpy hehehe.....

hands off now. can't fight with them.

Brisbane L 08:09 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Good Day
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello said Wednesday that new data show retail trade is slowing and the housing sector is cooling.
ABC news

Nottingham 08:07 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...bulls seem to be making a stand here ahead of 1.30...they need to make it stick because one more bout selling will probably be enough to trigger large eurcad liquidation...usdcad conventionally oversold at 1.2958...my primary o/s nearer to 1.29 but as I've mentioned before, historically this pair is usually kept honest by conventional o/s indicators...eurcad's stalling at 200 sma past couple of days has meant slight unwinding of overextension to downside so would need to see 1.57 handle traded to reach primary o/s...gl gt

Ltn th 08:07 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Q// Many thanks. I am guided by your experience and skills. I dont have resourced to factor in end of year effect or many others.

perrie como 08:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
don't want to mention again what I ve posted here days, months ago... but jpy has to strenghten as the goosie has ...

guess most sht termers were squeezed recently..more than a guess is certainty

take care

van Gecko 08:02 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
inorder to have a shot at 1.25/26 Euro needs to poke its head above 1.2260/80 & do a daily close above 1.24..
'Sons Of Beatrice ' of various size & temperments are stacked from here up to 1.25 to ambush eager europhiles..fwiw..

saloniko 2004 nk 07:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 07:25 GMT March 31, 2004

I dont think so..

Pls focus and BC posts cos i think he is better than all of us in long term view..

GL...

nk

Melbourne Qindex 07:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Ltn th 07:40 GMT - EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when EUR/JPY is trading below 127.55 - 127.65. We are going to see 126.72 soon.

ZP Nemo 07:52 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Rhytoric question: Is YEN repatriation ended for today??

U.K J.B. 07:50 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Quality not quantity.

I really do think most of the time the bigger picture and real moves are missed here. Fib. this MA'S that rsi showing this double bottom there , doubling up here . Updates every 10 mins shorting now / buying here locked in 15 pips when we are seeing 300 point moves in a couple of days. This only applies to 85 % as a good 15 % do provide good input when they post perhaps once a day/ 3 times a week. Do we not realise by now that everyone has the same technical levels it is what you do with them that counts.

Looking closely at Aussie from the short side 76. 76.30

just my observation- do not want to offend anyone. Off to play some golf now as my orders are now in place GT

ltn th 07:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
GVM// Thanks for the info.
BC Thanks for your endorsement. I am making some big assumptions on colatteral effects on other mainly commodity currencies and overall effect on trade figs. How much pressure will this put on China or will Chinas overall trade position be less affected?

Tallinn viies 07:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Sydney gvm 07:34 - this is excellent opportunity to SELL. whatever OPEC does prices will come down anyway.
everything what is possible to calculate IN the price is calculated in :)

Ltn th 07:40 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Qindex 07:24// If USDJPY fails to breach around 103.50 level in ny today, would you still expect euroyen to still have a significant effect on eurusd and audusd?

shanghai bc 07:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

TH is right..This is Japan Inc's Oil Game..

Porto PJT 07:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:31 , exactly for that reason, like to see the range cant be broken to upside after Riksbank Interest Rate decision.

Sydney gvm 07:34 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
ltn th 06:36 GMT March 31, 2004

Crude up .45 on Access at 36.68 (basis May futures) while Unleaded is up 2.58 @ 117.58 (basis May) These are pretty big moves in the after market

Tallinn viies 07:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Porto PJT 07:22 GMT - why sek will be intresting?

I can see it down sharply to 9,16 within next 2 weeks. within 48 hours down to 9,2200 fwiw

Barcelona Tony 07:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
superd = superb

Barcelona Tony 07:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
saloniko 2004 nk 07:15 GMT ..you're the man of trading ... I don't know what you greeks eat .. but both you and athens are quite superd traders..gt gl mate

Melbourne Qindex 07:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 06:45 GMT - USD/JPY : It is unlikely that the market will trade below 102.45 - 102.73 today. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY will move AUD/USD and EUR/USD lower.

Porto PJT 07:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 07:17 , same here, d trendline as a target and now targeting the next fibo buying on the bounce of trendline.
Eur/sek should be interesting next days too.GL, GT.

Tallinn viies 07:17 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
euro reached to my first target near 1,2265. next target at 1,2325/30. and then 1,2380 which I think will be hard to reache at this stage of the corretion.

buying on dips is still favoured strategy today. stops at 1,2145 if traded heave selling preffered...

saloniko 2004 nk 07:15 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Good Morning..

Barcelona Tony 06:39 GMT March 31, 2004

The Best for Euro for the time is 1.26 and for Usd/chf 1.2350
For the rest of the year the target will be to 1.05 but i guess frome 1.35..
Keep ur eyes to Gold for another 5%UP frome here Euro/gbp ...
and Usd/cad ..which are the best indicators for USD move..

nk

Athens 07:10 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Posted here yesterday as a warning:

Athens 16:27 GMT March 30, 2004
All price moves today have been quite technical. It had already become obvious in the morning that part (if not most) of the earlier price moves had nothing to do with genuine USD weakness byt they were due to an overdure Yen correction from extremely O/B territory both v, the USD and the major JPY crosses. Once technical levels such as EUR/JPY 129.80 and GBP/JPY 194.25 were reached or nearly met ($/JPY didn't come very close to correction target 106.50), the market resumed its previous directional course. After today's JPY all round corrections, all the JPY pairs remain very vulnerable on the downside in case the MOF decided to...go on holiday. This is not to say that we will necessarily see new JPY highs now, however such a risk is not out of the way yet, particularly now that the overdue cirrections have taken place.

Barcelona Tony 07:04 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
also buy gbp here for 8450 and enjoy

hong kong nt 06:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- hope sell aussie at 00 and cad at 40 may not disappoint me today...

Helsinki iw 06:54 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
viies, for sure it´s ambigous, but I would say that it is within
a range of 1,00-1,10.

Ldn 06:54 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex ummmm ok

Barcelona Tony 06:54 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
la ej 06:53 GMT agree

la ej 06:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
euro will hit 2306

Barcelona Tony 06:51 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 06:43 GMT March 31 ... at least, 1.23xx ++++

Tallinn viies 06:51 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Helsinki iw 06:44 - where is this fair value ?

Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 06:45 GMT - It is hard to tell. Today is the last day of the month and anything can happen.

Ldn 06:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex wuld you say a move below 100 yen is negative aud and euro it doent seem it at the moment
tks

Helsinki iw 06:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
US trade with the Asian block is much larger than it´s trade
with the EZ, so if a lower USD/JPY is a precursor of a more
flexible Chinese FX policy, then that would take the pressure
of EUR/USD as a policy tool, which could mean it would be
more free to move towards it´s fair value.

Van jv 06:43 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony ///possibly not 1.3+-----but what is realistic for next few days?

Ldn Hat 06:42 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Barcelona Tony 06:39 GMT Be careful, there is a chance of getting burned to ashes with your theory IMHO ;-)

Barcelona Tony 06:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
as I said yesterday ... buy euros .. sell $ for the time being .... remember the false break at 1.07 where it finished ... this time it happened again .. 1.3xxx next

ltn th 06:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Does anyone have recent crude prices? I suspect that MOF may like to keep the price of oil in yen stable.

Melbourne Qindex 06:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:34 GMT March 31, 2004
USD/JPY : Further expansion of the trading ranges into the following :-


... // 103.88* - 104.32 - 104.75 - 105.18 - 105.62 // ...

Melbourne Qindex 06:26 GMT March 31, 2004
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges from my 44-day cycle reference :-

... // 103.88* - 104.75 - 105.62* // ...

Arlington, TX 06:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
JP Yen 100 next stop 80! The largest failed intervention in history! Prediction: Intervention when reported later will be huge and shock markets! Another gap lower! Look at chart! Yen is now hyperbolic and gapping through support!

Margahayu Bdg Asti 06:30 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Jubail Gamber 06:22 GMT March 31, 2004
hello...i'm could be wrong...but i was longed at 103.95.., gl !

Nottingham 06:30 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Jubail Gamber 06:22 GMT

103.92 was briefly broken but prices seem to have stabilised back above it, but for how long who knows...problem is that a close below 105 opens up sub 100 levels as a longer term target (although it's conceivable that close to 100 could be seen quite quickly if MoF doesn't step in)...gl gt

sydney fg 06:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
so much for a quiet session.
eur/usd rally halted at daily 100 and 20 emas.

Jubail Gamber 06:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hey everyone. what is the bottom of $yen?

Van jv 06:16 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP/////you were right on JPY, I would never dare. What now, do not think Japs let it go wild---no wild fluctuation policy still on...?? Your opinion...

MTL Cain 05:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
MOF [WATANABE] says Japan"s intervention in March is slightly above the February"s level, while [TANIGAKI] says there is no change in FX policy, and the ministry will act if necessary.

Here they come. Ne body has a good memory on Feb's jpy's level? TIA. GL & GT

hk jn 05:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Is it common that after year end, jpy will weaken? Anyone can share their memory please, thks.

Singapore Sfx 05:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
S'pore Mal 05:21 - thats only good for the "val today" trades .. doesnt matter at this time..

Jubail Gamber 05:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thinking of long usdjpy now? your views please

Ldn 05:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
NEW YORK (AP)--Massachusetts and California are poised for the biggest economic gains, according to a new study that credits those states' sizable investments in technology and science.

The Milken Institute published a report Tuesday ranking every state according to 75 metrics, including the amount of venture funding local companies and universities received last year, the number of residents with doctorates, and the number of businesses that started or failed there.

hk ab nz 0.6 05:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// limit on p/t (actually a SAR for the previous losing lots is @ 105.50.

S'pore Mal 05:21 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Apparently, if USD/JPY slips more than 200pips from the Tokyo fix before the Nikkei close, then the fixing rate is void and USD/JPY is re-fixed at a new lower level. This could be a potential problem for the Japanese clearers and increase the likelihood for the BoJ to show its hand if the unit continues to drift lower.

hong kong nt 05:21 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk jn 05:00 GMT -- life maybe a bit easier if day low of usd/jpy has already placed at 104.00...

hong kong nt 05:20 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk jn 05:00 GMT -- life maybe a bit easier is day low of usd/jpy has already placed at 104.00...

LAX-LGB SNP 05:14 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Atlanta SH 05:00 GMT March 31, 2004
am on a 3mbps cable line and doubt if cable internet is constrained by 'range' but you can try DirecWay internet service although its on the pricey side (upto 59.99/month)

GER ad 05:14 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/JPY look offered, out at 127.54
May try to buy later if 127.20/30 will hold.

Singapore Sfx 05:02 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
joe , seems like it ... this morning asian high 1.2824.

hk ab nz 0.6 05:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// tired today, but think sel aud/jpy here might need to risk BOJ gun later.

hk jn 05:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk nt, may I have your view on jpy today? tks

Atlanta SH 05:00 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Is anyone here using 2 way satellite as part of your trading setup. I live just outside the cable and DSL range and I'm hoping to get something faster than dial up. Any opinions?

jordan joe 04:59 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
thank you so it did not do 12825

Singapore Sfx 04:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
joe ... usdsf ny 1.2750-1.2823 - thats 11-21 gmt 30 mar

hong kong nt 04:57 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- no more better alternative than buying usd/jpy at 104.35?

jordan joe 04:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
can some one please help me with sfr high and low in newyork yesterday

Saihat 04:51 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
some may see eurusd

target 1.2295....close today 1.2235

GER ad 04:43 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/JPY at 127.46 S/L under 127.25 T/P 1.27.80+

hk ooozmeeh 04:27 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
FWIW, bought yen at 104.40 with very tight stops..looking for 103.00 later....

ZP Nemo 04:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Looking for BoJ... IMO

hk ab nz 0.6 04:20 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// wish me luck 104.35.

tokyo nyan 04:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
usd.jpy broken 104??

hk ab nz 0.6 04:18 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
anyone dare to place a stop buy entry for intervention 35 pips above spot?

hk ab nz 0.6 04:17 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// seems we are repeating jpy history in 2002....
100.35 tonight?

MTL Cain 04:12 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
A signal indicates eur/$ favors short @.2245 now. However, on all my 10/15/30min, eur/$ are all in bull modes. Ne opinion is appreciated. GL & GT

hong kong nt 04:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 04:03 -- the best thing my wife did was giving birth to my son and daughter...

hk ab nz 0.6 04:06 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// I would just like to leave my stupid entries run later in Apr.

What annoying me at the moment is the nzd and I have an option mature next Wed.

hong kong nt 04:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- my ideal entry level for usd/cad is 1.296...

hk ab nz 0.6 04:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt//Guess you love her too much and she do all the good things for you!

hong kong nt 04:02 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
AB -- temptation to buy usd/cad in front of 1.30 line. what do you think...

hong kong nt 03:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 03:48 -- with reference to my c9 idx, it maybe a good idea to sell aussie or aussie yen today, for usd/cad, i guess my wife may cover her short at 1.3000/50 today. She is smart, very smart indeed...

sgp sp 03:56 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
thanks....

hk ab nz 0.6 03:56 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sp// currently, I see some good room on dlrchf downside.

hk ab nz 0.6 03:53 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
sp// dun think so. but need to see.

sgp sp 03:51 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
good morning ab.....usd/nzd is going towards ur SAR point of 6680?

hk ab nz 0.6 03:48 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
nt// any interest in aud/jpy sell then?

MTL Cain 03:43 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
eur/$ passed .2203, 2220 and .2235 in 2 hours. The bull is having rest now. In the same time, news from japan about supporting $ comes again and again, but the market has not responded. Ne view on eur/$? TIA. GL & GT

hong kong nt 03:39 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 03:30 -- trading GBP/JPY 190-194 range with downside bias for now, for USD/JPY, better sell on bounce and don't jump off the shinkansen platform...

shanghai bc 03:38 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Good morning..That Aud/Usd area is likely to see a good retracement..Good trades..

st. pete islander 03:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Irish, one would wonder how the FBI could determine that so fast .... just saw live pictures and it is still burning. I just hope they are correct and that nobody died. gt

Chicago Irish 03:32 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Excerpt from a report I just saw "Homeland security officials say they were monitoring the situation in Texas City tonight, but the FBI said agents responded to the scene and they're sure it was simply an industrial accident. Petrochemical plants in the Houston area have been identified as a possible al-Qaida target, but Tuesday night's incident was not terror related."

hk ab nz 0.6 03:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
dlr/chf moved so little though.....

hk ab nz 0.6 03:30 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Is Texas explosion done anything on mkt?

I was engaged with some improtant matter the whole morning till 8 mins ago....

nt// view on dlr/jpy?

hong kong nt 03:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you thing aussie .7600/50 is a sell for this week? good trades...

shanghai bc 03:23 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

JST =Japan Standard Time..Japan's forex operations run according to their own time,JST, regardless of GMT..Same for China's operations,CST..

hong kong nt 03:21 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
BC -- thanks, nice trading range GBPJPY 190-194. good trades...

DAK tk 03:18 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
JST = Japanese Standard Time ??

hk ooozmeeh 03:16 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
BC whats JST? tia

Ga Lee 02:49 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
thank you very much bc...

shanghai bc 02:47 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

We may have seen the most part of Yen buying for Tokyo session today..But London session is an unkown number..Watch out for 16-18 JST..fwiw..

mtl gg 02:44 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Explosions and fire rocked BP Plc's (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) refinery and chemical plant complex in Texas City, Texas, on Tuesday evening, Houston-area television stations reported.
No injuries were reported from the large fire, which was reported at about 7:20 p.m. CST (8:20 p.m. EST). Residents of Texas City, about 30 miles south of Houston, were told to remain in their homes due to dense smoke from the flames.

BP Texas City has a 447,000-barrel-per-day refinery. It is the 12th-largest refinery in the world.

Houston-area television stations reported other nearby refineries were being evacuated. Texas City is home to a 72,000-barrel-a-day refinery operated by Marathon Ashland Petroleum and a 210,000 barrel-a-day refinery operated by Valero Energy Corp.

Melbourne Qindex 02:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
USD/JPY : It is going to challenge the lower barrier of my weekly cycle. Register with [email protected] if you have no access to my page.

NZ Bomber 02:41 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
OK, thanks Sunstate

ci 02:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
will we break 103 in the next few hours?

brisbane sunstate 02:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber 02:28
Bomber I am not the best to answer that. I mostly hold for longer term days or weeks
gl.

Nassau QF 02:34 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
(Reuters) explosion in Texas

NZ Bomber 02:28 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanks Sunstate
If it hits .7585 how much do you see it coming down in the next few hours?

brisbane sunstate 02:26 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber 02:09 GMT
fwiw 0.7585-07610 should limit upside for now. but that is just my opinion maybe others would disagree
gl.

NZ Bomber 02:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GER ad

London Misha 02:25 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
I got the news of Reuters

Ldn 02:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Australian credit lending and retail sales data both show signs of weakening in February, lending weight to view economy softening under pressure from rate hikes in late 2003. Combined, reports suggests Reserve Bank has time to consider next move in rates. Supports view cash rate will be held at 5.25% medium term. AUD/USD slip sharply on reports after rallying to around 0.7570 beforehand.rts

Nassau QF 02:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Found one.
Plant explosion in Texas City

ci 02:23 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
any target for yen in the next 12 hours?

Nassau QF 02:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Does any one have a link to the explosion?
I see nothing on Reuters and nothing on Fox News channel.

GER ad 02:22 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
NZ Bomber 02:09,
It depends a lot from USD/JPY, if stay so low 104.70 (or lower) the chance for AUD/USD (0.7577) to come down is slim IMHO .

NJ 02:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
How about GBP/U ? up or down today

Londrina Misha 02:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
BP plant @ Texas City

mtl gg 02:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
which news service?

pj amc 02:14 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
it doesnt say

ci 02:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
where pj?

pj amc 02:11 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
reports of an explosion in texas possibly an oil-refinery

NZ Bomber 02:09 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Hi everyone

Can anyone help??? is the AUD/USD going to continue rising or is it about to come down again fast???

Thanks

Nassau QF 01:58 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
The 105 level was taken away on USD/JPY.
Wonder how low it's going.

Singapore alwaysrespectthemarket 01:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Imagine for a second BOJ out of the equation.... Is lower dlr a natural progression? Are things really that bad in the US? And that good in Japan? What do the fundementals say?

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:43 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
cain// my pleasure. =)

shanghai bc 01:35 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

On MoF of Japan interventions..It is no big deal if they want to push Yen up or down several hundred pips in a session..The only qustion is if it is in Japan Inc's general interests..Since they have decided to have a slightly stronger Yen from 110,it is an obvioud signal to the market to sell on bounce..Till 100 ,that is..Fwiw..

CAIRO AG 01:34 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Any idea if the Australian report out or not yet? TIA

MTL Cain 01:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Great thx Rafe for ur post on the barriers. GL & GT

MTL Cain 01:33 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Great thx Rafe for ur post on the barriers. GL & GT

Quito Valdez 01:31 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
ltn th 00:18 //
You brought up good points, thanks!!

Caribbean! Rafe... 01:30 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2189 1.2203 1.2221 1.2235 1.2250 1.2268 1.2296
LOWER BANDS 1.2160 1.2146 1.2128 1.2114 1.2099 1.2082 1.2053


USD/JPY UPPER BANDS 105.77 105.89 106.05 106.17 106.30 106.45 106.70
LOWER BANDS 105.52 105.40 105.24 105.12 104.99 104.84 104.59


USD/CHF UPPER BANDS 1.2830 1.2845 1.2863 1.2879 1.2894 1.2912 1.2943
LOWER BANDS 1.2799 1.2784 1.2766 1.2750 1.2735 1.2717 1.2686


GBP/USD UPPER BANDS 1.8287 1.8308 1.8335 1.8356 1.8378 1.8405 1.8448
LOWER BANDS 1.8243 1.8222 1.8195 1.8174 1.8152 1.8125 1.8082

Singapore alwaysrespectthemarket 01:19 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Talk of BOJ bid at 105.40....

Global-View 01:13 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Ldn 1:03 GMT. We are removing your post since it came directly from DJ and you didn't cite the author of the story.

Melbourne Qindex 00:55 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : I have a feeling that the market is going to settle around 1.2081 in New York session at 20.GMT.

sydney fg 00:52 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
morning folks.
appreciate the articles and views posted this am. thks all.
also, i would welcome commentry on dow, bond, oil mkts etc fwiw.

fwiw closed o/n eur shorts early this am 1.2170. eur squeezing into triangle here . i am unwilling to trade what i think will be tight session.
g/l all.

shanghai bc 00:45 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   

QINDEX -- Good morning..Thanks..Good forecasts and trades..

Gen dk 00:37 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Belgrade Knez 00:36 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Montréal Taro

If you give me your e-mail address I will send you pdf file about 123 system.

Montréal Taro 00:29 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Is there somebody here who could help to find information about a pattern call "the 123 system" ?

Gold Coast martin 00:24 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
LTN..th....your valid point has been taken into account.....g/l g/t

Melbourne Qindex 00:20 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Quarterly Cycle Charts

ltn th 00:18 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
Valdez and Martin. I would be cautious about the analysis and analogy in that article as it ignores the substantial differences between the structure of the investment funding arrangements between US and UK or AU. The latter relying more on mandated savings with a need to keep faith with regulated prudential requirments.

Melbourne Qindex 00:06 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 00:03 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:12 GMT - Good Morning! Top Trades!

UK GF 00:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
oslo oskar well it looks like Greenspan wont be around for the next President and as usual rates will start skipping higher as into overkill panic they will want to get it back to at least 3% so get your seat belt buckled.

Melbourne Qindex 00:01 GMT March 31, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD : My monthly cycle frequency chart indicates that the gap dufference between 1.2086 and 1.2267 is big. Therefore it is conceiable that great effort is required to remove the market between this quantised levels.

EUR/AUD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 12:11 GMT March 30, 2004
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my monthly cycle is 1.2086* - 1.2267*.


... // 1.2086* - 1.2132 - 1.2177 - 1.2222 - 1.2267* // ...

 




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