Forex Forum Archive for 04/1/2004

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
athens, may I have your view on dlr/cad? TIA.

hk ab nzd 0.6 23:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
oilman, actually, hope you can come back more often.

So, u see eur higher chance to the upside now since it closed above 1.2350.

AUS Trader 22:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/USD hourly close below .7650 is a goner for .7600->.7550

LA ARTOFYEN 22:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
LAX snp,

I am the opposite of most people as I call the "big move" in Gold, Housing, Currencies, Equities, etc much too early as opposed to the normal much too late prevalent out there. They can be both quite expensive so timing, as always, is of the utmost importance. With regard to the bursting of the housing bubble, it will happen sooner rather than later and have been saying for months and months now that the key will be the return of inflation. I think it has been with us for qutie some time but the Fed has been able to sweep it under the rug but Gold, crude, and many other commodities can't stay hidden under that rug any longer and there is a serious threat al lthat hidden junk mught blast right thru the roof in coming months. Also, let's not forget that we won't be getting the boost to our capital markets from Asia like in year's past so expect our rates to continue to climb with or without the government's blessing. Even more important, however, is the real estate market is vastly positioned for maximum pain so like the gold selling to $270, the usd/yen carry trade buying to 140, the Euro punishment to .8200 cents, the Nasdaq to 5k, etc, all good things must come to a cyclical end. Hope that helps pal but remember I am always the early bird...........

Livingston nh 22:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sydney ct - what country??

SYDNEY ct 22:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi, any economists out there?
Since January M1 has grown at an annualised rate of 30% !! M2 at 9.3% and M3 at 9.1%.
Couple that with the largest weekly average fall in marketable securities since IFR began tracking records, and SOMETHING's GOING ON!

I repeat, any economists out there?

Nottingham Daniel 22:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
A slight pickup in pace of employment

What we expect: Friday's data calendar can be summed up in one word - payrolls. In the principal event of the week / month / cycle we look for a pick up in the pace of employment growth to about 100,000 in March.

Why we care: A 100,000 payroll growth would still be below acceptable and not enough for the Fed to consider negative Fed Funds as too accommodative. 100,000 in the month is seen as enough to tick the unemployment rate down a tenth to 5.5%. There is growing speculation that this may be the long awaited breakout payroll report. We concur that it is long overdue, do not think this will be the one, but do not believe we will have to wait much longer. We also see the average workweek ticking up a tenth to 33.9 and hourly earnings firming 0.2% in the month. Our earlier calls for the ramp up in employment growth have proved premature. We still hold the view that monthly employment growth implicit in earlier forecasts for 2.0 to 2.5-mil full year 2004 employment growth will get underway in 2Q04.

Where markets will go: A strong payroll number will certainly help stocks and the dollar, while tripping up Treasuries. Not withstanding the knee-jerk reaction, the report will be discussed and debated throughout the day.

dc fxq 21:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 21:28 GMT - I am on the registry but still get calls from several US brokerages for FX that I had done demos with. The interpretation there is I had exhibited an interest in the services so I'm fair game.

Moral to the story: beware whom you give your telephone number.

GVI john 21:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION �Far East Open
eur/$ 1.2360�$/yen 103.70
DJIA 10,373, +16 pts�NASDAQ 2,015, +21 pts
10-yr 3.88%, +4 bp�s

PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
See GVI for text

LAX-LGB SNP 21:34 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Wiltshire UK Norm 20:55 GMT April 1, 2004
Wiltshire UK Norm 20:48 GMT April 1, 2004

there is NO guarantee

to open my first account, i went to the brokerage in person with my check although they had a NFA ID, Better Business Bureau certification and a lot of other crap

all was fine for a while till the Feds shut them down last yr

nyc jk 21:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
with the new national Do Not Call registry in effect in the US, cold calls are limited to political, religious and charitable organizations, and companies you have done business with, or requested info from in the past. if you are getting calls from FX firms, I guess they are flying under the charitable banner, looking for you to make a donation to the market infrastucture!

Mtl JP 21:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
no prob amc. re yr 20:58: tom's US numbers have affected the cad today (by keeping it within range) and will most likely affect the usd/cad rate tom as well.

Utopia Spiritual leader 21:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Just to diffuse this situation with.

Thought for the day

The Zen master Ling Chi said that the miracle is not to walk on burning charcoal or in the thin air or on the water; the miracle is just to walk on earth. You breathe in. You become aware of the fact that you are alive. You are still alive and you are walking on this beautiful planet. The greatest of all miracles is to be alive.

Thich Nhat Hanh

pj amc 21:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
mtl.............that is what i was trying to say in laymans terms

Mtl JP 21:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Relying on any gov't registration/regulation as a stamp of integrity/approval/reference is an abdication of self-reliance, due dilligence and basic premise of free market law: caveat emptor.

brisbane sunstate 21:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Wiltshire UK Norm
go to help forum url posted there
gl

LAX-LGB SNP 21:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
LA ARTOFYEN 20:01 GMT April 1, 2004
your 'real estate bubble' thoughts would be highly appreciated

TIA :-)

pj amc 21:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
art of yen..............what i said was not everyone that cold calls is looking to scam you. I have never traded usd/cad so i was asking a question. no need to jump all over me like that ok

ny Ocsana 21:04 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Wiltshire UK Norm 20:48 GMT April 1, 2004
You can check them in NFA website (reg.ID, approval date, complains etc)

Shg 21:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh 19:12 GMT yr view is correct and once he has gone
WHITE HOUSE MAY SEE GREENSPAN AS LIABILITY FOR ELECTION

http://www.nypost.com/business/22084.htm

Gen dk 21:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA ARTOFYEN 21:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
PJ, you tell us to do our homework regarding cold calls yet you have no clue how tomorrow's numbers affect usd/cad? Class starts at 8:30 am sharp tom morning pal!!

Wild West Snake Oil 20:59 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Yeah, I agree..............Some cold callers are really solid firms. Heck, just because we cold call you doesn't mean we are desperate for clients. It just means we have a great sales team. Sorry for calling you during dinner though!

pj amc 20:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Can anyone tell me if the pair usd/cad is usually affected by the numbers being released tomorrow

Wiltshire UK Norm 20:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
I have of course sent e-mails to contacts in the US , and i will check with my FX broker in the uk to see if the information stacks up. but there are so many scams and this is a new one on me but thanks !

Wiltshire UK Norm 20:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
is there a USA registration which i see if the company is regd?

brisbane sunstate 20:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
pj amc 20:21 GMT
100% of them calling me have no registration with NFA or CFTC. but just telling the guy to be careful
gl

pj amc 20:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Brisbane............not true. do your homework on whoever cold calls you first. some of them are very good.

brisbane sunstate 20:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Wiltshire UK Norm 20:06
NEVER NEVER deal vith any firm cold calling you they are almost always scams
gl

LA ARTOFYEN 20:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
The first thing poll they should do is poll Americans to see if they know who Greenspan is? Who is he? He is the guy that is giving you the feeling of being wealthy until the real estate bubble burts? Oh, sounds like a nice chap then!!......

Van jv 19:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Daniel//N.Amer. Indians would call him"man who loves and creates bubbles"

Nottingham Daniel 19:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
- Although Greenspan did not suffer a heart attack, he may
have suffered a mild panic attack after reading the latest
public opinion polls. According to an NBC News/Wall Street
Journal poll, only 45% of Americans give Greenspan a "very
positive" or "somewhat positive" rating, down from 54% in a
similar poll six months earlier. It's the first time in
this decade that Greenspan's favorable ratings have dropped
below 50%. The portion of respondents professing a somewhat or very negative view of Greenspan rose from 10% to 14%.

- The foreign exchange market conducts a real-time public
opinion poll, and Greenspan's reputation isn't faring well
in that venue, either. To judge from the dollar's steep
slide, a growing number of foreign investors are adopting a
"somewhat negative" view of Mr. Greenspan and his monetary
policies.

NOT MY WORDS

Van jv 19:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh/// I see it that Fed clearly indicated need for "neutral Level , above 1%/ lowest since 1958// , but when this affects psych. of traders , Can not guess ,. --so possbly higher and down or still ext. range?////???GD,GL

Livingston nh 19:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
jpb - Magic is the Art of misdirection

vancouver jpb 19:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Livingston.... granted.

But every time Greenspan testifies.... He keep quoting that america has to get back to work before the fed will do anything.

Livingston nh 19:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
jpb - IMO Fed does not care about employment levels anymore (lagging indicator to them) but Capacity Utilization has become important - today's ISM shows some concern for supply bottlenecks // inflation is the key for the Fed

Livingston nh 19:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/CHF at a crossroads - the MACD on a daily basis is about to turn up but the 21 da sma has crossed the 55 da Ema - hourly trend is strong upward // 1.5648 would be a short term target and a break above would see 1.58

vancouver jpb 19:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
As we get closer to the Jobless on friday, I'm coming toward a negtive view.

I think there's going to be a repeat of last month (not as bad) but not good in any view.

Outside of that the Fed will not be raising int. rates in response.

GL GT

Van jv 18:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL///makes sense to me, and/but short term we may stop at 1.24 zone //and get tops, l2 tops / gold, AUD , GBP and get a correction along the line suggested by Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:52, 17:01----I am concerned that CBs do not want any wild fluctuation these days and run-up on gold --

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
A lot of people seem to be upbeat for the numbers tomorrow but I think the market has made up it�s mind on beating up the $ a bit more. I only see a good number tomorrow turning this whole thing around. A double bottom on the daily and indicators turned north with fib retracement at 1.2385-95, 1.2490-2500 and 1.2590-2600 area. For now 1.2450 seems to be the next point to be tested. I have exited my mid term position at 1.2300 and I will be buying above 1.2450 for a test of the 1.2590-1.2600 area first IMHO. GL GT

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 18:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 18:15 GMT April 1, 2004
sorry.. not bother you.
I agree with your comment about Dewan, about "will" ,maybe in my country if always use "maybe" that's mean low confidence (not good language in my country culture).
yes.. none know about forex number top or low. all are only prediction.

LHR B747 18:26 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez 16:10 GMT // First, let me realize your kiss @ 1.2550++++ during APR/04

The 20-50pips rides are not the thing I am after.
Remember, earning a kiss means you made someone happy!

Bandung Dewan 18:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Van jv 18:15 GMT April 1, 2004
You're right.... I forgot to say IMO

Van jv 18:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
And .some....do not ask st....questions and those only gods, with some luck added, might answer ......

Van jv 18:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Bandung Dewan 18:07 /// do not use "will", that's gods answer, thoug it may happen

Bandung Dewan 18:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
for tommorow gbp/usd will get 1.8385 and eur/usd 1.2175
selling level 1.8625 and 1.2380

Gen dk 17:45 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Shg 17:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Kohn: Low Rates 'Unsustainable,' To Eventually Rise
Fincl Mkts, Econ Can Absorb Impact Of Higher Rates
Home Prices May Be Out Of Line With Fundamentals
Destabilizing Economic Imbalances May Be Building
Yahoo/ reuters

or 17:37 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Selling AUD/USD at 0.7680 for 0.7560.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nyc sa 17:10 GMT April 1, 2004
still not yet clear signal. step by step.
long term still bullish.

nyc sa 17:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hi Raden ,is it possible to see cable 1.90 again soon ? euro 1.29?

HK Kevin 17:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Covered USD/CAD at 1.3097 and EUR at 1.2362. Hand off and good night.

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 17:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd .
1.2401/1.2413.. top band
gbp/usd
1.8616.. top level

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hmmm ...gold will get top area at 432.70 or 435.20
I think many investors will sell there to get 416.80 as minimal target.

hong kong nt 16:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- hope my wife's .768 may hold for this week. good night...

Indonesia Solo raden_masandi 16:49 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hello.. all my friends..

HK Kevin 16:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, still chance for testing 1.3165. I tend to cover near 1.3100 fo a fast profit and keep the long EUR overnight. Re: USD/CAD I will short again at 1.3160 level if seen. Also hope to sell USD/JPY again near 104.40.

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, yup. But I think a reversal could last at least for 3 trading days.

boulder dat 16:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
key technical area on the intra-day chart for USD/CAD. if this one goes, then i think we could see a test of the 1.3000 low in the next few sessions. although, as i am writing this, i see the currency popped up about 20 pips. we may have a lot of bids in this area. still, this paints the technical picture of the currency moving to the downside.

HK Kevin 16:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, beware of your usd/cad long position.

hong kong nt 16:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
have a illusion that the quotes of EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are dead tonight, any implication ?

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:20 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt, looks like rba freezing the aud now.

london cam 16:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham 16:15 GMT April 1, 2004
No need to apologise. I've still got some hair on my head!
Grateful for your authorative view. GT

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
since I am shorting aud/nzd, I bet it will stay below .768 v. risky judging from dlrcad movement.

1 pint.

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
those dlr/cad is v. yuck....

repeating the triple tops pattern last year.

hong kong nt 16:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- i "buy small"...

Nottingham 16:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
london cam 16:09 GMT

sorry about that...euraud on the mind!

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt, which side u want to be? above or below .768?

Shg. 16:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat Excellent thankyu very much.

hong kong nt 16:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB-- yup, by NY cls...

hk ab nzd 0.6 16:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// b4 ny close?

Quito Valdez 16:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
LHR B747 15:16 GMT

Yea I know I post too much but I'd be very intersted in HOW you arrive at these predictions. Believe me, I want you to be correct, (I'd make a fortune as well as USA exporters!) but could you share your method/insight to know these things on the help forum for all of us to see? Valdez would owe you two.

london cam 16:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham. Thanks again.
You had me headscratching until you corrected to o/b in your 16.05post.
GT

hong kong nt 16:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB-- let's side bet a pint of beer that aud may stay below .768 tonight...

sgp sp 16:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat 16:01 GMT April 1, 2004

Thanks for the link....:)

USA Biscuit Boy 16:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Great to hear from you again Oilman. Cheers for your view :)

Nottingham 16:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
that would be o/b not o/s in both cases, sorry

hong kong jc 16:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hong konb ab nzd// i traded at shop round the corner for yrs. just kept the lot size small in order to learn. gl gt

Livingston nh 16:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Oilmanator -- welcome back and thanx on a great call to 2.50

Nottingham 16:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Near term I think new highs can only be seen as part of a broad dollar decline against all majors but while commodities are strong you are certainly going to get head scrtaching periods where the pair exhibits strength...overnight the pair triggered primary o/s so probably explains its early session underperform (and probably giving it the appearance of outperformance against eur gbp right now)...today primary o/s comes in just ahead of 7700...gl gt

Quito Valdez 16:04 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Shgn 15:27 GMT April 1, 2004 //
Shgn & others, how can I (an absolute NOBODY) find out who or what organization-fund-bank etc. is selling what c'ncy (& how much of it) like you fellas do? Tell us how you guys know these things please. Interesting!! :^)

hong kong nt 16:03 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
spot GOLD 426.0

boulder dat 16:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai...
click here

UAE Oilmanator 16:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi..
close over 1.2350=>1.2440=>1.2820..
in anycase Also have to hold 1.2280 on the close to maintain good bullish stance...
The other side with somewhat less strenght 1.2280 =>1.2260=>1.2155=>1.2092=>1.2030.......(2x bottom so far)

GBP$ break 1.8615=>1.9000=>vroom vroom...

Long Gbpjap 191.68 stop entry and target 194.00 1/2 rest for "sky's the limit"..
...GL
..

Big chance to see $yen to 150 tommorrow...(Happy Fool's day)
-----


ps livingston ..how was the gbpcad :)

london cam 16:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Shg. 15:58 GMT April 1, 2004
mid price currently 425.9

london cam 15:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Nottingham - thanks mate. Got the picture. On fundamentals alone, I wouldn't be surprised to see AUDUSD testing Feb high within the nest few weeks. GT

Shg. 15:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Could someone gve the spot gold price thankyou

GER ad 15:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/GBP out at 0,6645

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:57 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eurgbp looks protected here.

london cam 15:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dat - Thanks, overlooked the fundamentals. GT

Nottingham 15:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
london cam 15:44 GMT

a) good (and consensus unexpected) building permits after recent declines
b) commodities and gold stronger
c) recent losses have offered good levels to start rebuilding carry trade positions
d) recent strength of yen against aussie has leveled the playing field a bit more for aussie companies, with usual flows into australia coming from this

Shg 15:51 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
RBS Greenwich's Steve Stanley says "No need for fancy overthinking. Plain and simple, this report tells us that the manufacturing sector is smoking."

USD rate hike soon

boulder dat 15:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
london cam....
both aussie and pound have the contries with the highest interest rates. both countries are probably going to have to raise rates. real money will be on the bid in these currencies for some time.

london cam 15:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Anyone have a view as to why AUDUSD not falling as fast as gold, EURUSD, Cable etc?

HK Kevin 15:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Turn long EUR at 1.2309.

BWP IMRAN 15:42 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
any comments about EUR/USD?

HK Kevin 15:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Closed my short Cable from 1.8598 at 1.8532.

prague viktor 15:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh: thank u very much sirG/L G/T

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
jc, don't pretend to be c9 and uncle.....

think my m/t dlrchf should turn the ship soon.

Livingston nh 15:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Prague viktor - FWIW - my guess on NFP is 88K with most of the increase in manufacturing and construction (51K) -- I can't pick up any major source industry w/ large hiring requirements

hong kong nt 15:34 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- steal chicken sell gold, square half and get $6...

hk c9 uncle 15:34 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
long $/chf from 1.2600, glad I didn't listen to the guys who always talk bad about us and go short.

perth rick 15:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
short aud/usd at .7650 for .74 gl to me

HK Kevin 15:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
KL KL 15:28 GMT April 1, I short earlier at 1.8598

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
747, my plan is see the reaction of eur/gbp at .6600 first.
no break, join big time the band wagon.

LHR B747 15:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 // possible, I did not wanted to risk my scalping for 15-20pips

KL KL 15:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
HK Kevin , why when you know it is going down there you don't short now at this current level for pound....1.855?? Is that 1.853 a very technical level

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
with no cut today, think eur/aud should relief a bit now.
the ball goes to cad, aud and nzd.

Shgn 15:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Large German bank selling EUR "aggressively" on better-than-expected US ISM number dealer also US investment names selling EUR/JPY fwiw.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:26 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
747, actually I turn to your side now but I want a bit cheaper eur.

HK Kevin 15:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sorry guys. What is the lowest level Cable traded this hr. My limit order to sell at 1.8530 not hit.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt, think the cad can move at least one more day to the north b4 next direction.

Va Raven 15:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
And then......?

KL KL 15:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia , are you still in the pound ...shorting at current levels of 1.855-69?? what is your train chart showing

hong kong nt 15:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- my wife's 190/194 works ok this week...

hong kong nt 15:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- my wife and I covered our shorts on cad and aud...

GER ad 15:20 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Long EUR/GBP at 0.6644 tight S/L T/P +20/30 pips

sgp sp 15:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab.....aud/jpy is a perverse pair......I was tempted but it doesn't behave as it should, so I left it alone.

LHR B747 15:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
IMO

EUR/USD levels as seen during DEC/03 seems to return within weeks (not months!).

prague viktor 15:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Livingston nh:the ISM its strong is that mean the NFP will be also strong thank u sir wish u a G/D.

Livingston nh 15:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
In line with what ICT ml has been reporting about scrap prices the ISM says that prices Index is at 86 up from Feb -"In March, 73 percent of supply executives reported paying higher prices and 1 percent reported paying lower prices,"

Some executives have reported that supply availability is now becoming more of an issue than price

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sp// know what, I have been burnt by aud/jpy too many times, otherwise, it's a clear sale this morning.

LHR B747 15:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat // depends how you read it!!!

vancouver jpb 15:11 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Man... I tell you, when you can grab a quick 30 pips in less them a minute..... that is good thing.

GL GT

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:11 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sp// aud/nzd short s/l 1.1528.

p/t 1.1400 first.

boulder dat 15:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
from the Dismal Scientist website

The ISM index remained above the 60 mark for the fifth month in a row, at a reported 62.5 in March. The index is still signaling a brisk expansion in all aspects of manufacturing activity, including employment.

Gen dk 15:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sgp sp 15:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab, u shorted it.....where is ur s/l and exit?

mex sjs 15:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
just shorted usdchf here at 1.2653...

LHR B747 15:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
long EUR @ 1.2324

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sp// likely a 2nd chance for 1.1490 to be seen tongiht.

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:03 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Paris, you need to learn how to lie.....

GENEVA FHR 15:00 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ISM 62.5

hk ab nzd 0.6 15:00 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
v. volatile... but eur/gbp doesn't lie me.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:59 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
short aud/nzd 1.1490.

ham cla 14:53 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd: frenchman is selling around1,2350 while ny name is buying....buyers prevail to 1,2356-58

pj amc 14:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
How can someone find out where there might be stops on differenty currencies? I presume you would have to have an in with bank or something?

Livingston nh 14:47 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Geneva - thank you - missed that

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
and most importantly, viies exited at 1.2380......

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
if 1.2380 carries a big stop as rumoured, 1.2400 should be seen within in min after first touch.....

GENEVA FHR 14:42 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
FEB PPI has been out today

Sydney alimin 14:42 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, how do u know there is no s/l above 1.2380? is this something that u can see on ur platform?

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
dat// the explosion direction is unknown yet.

and quite sure that it will wait at least 2 more weeks.

hong kong nt 14:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- my home is the equivalent of a smart wife plus a stupid husband...

boulder dat 14:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6..

i'm looking to sell usd/cad. are you suggesting in the explosion that the move will be to the upside?

Nottingham 14:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
usdcad...if maintaining it's downtrend, it will close below 1.3240/50 today...a move above there suggests a retest of 200 day sma...gl gt

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I never trade against outside day and key day reversal 3 days after the signal. gl.

Livingston nh 14:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
The ISM figures in a half-hour may echo the decline in yesterday's Chicago release BUT the inflation (prices) info in the report is more important -- the PPI figures for February are still delayed so today's release will give some indication of the flow thru of energy costs

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt, eur/gbp is dictatiing eur 1.22xx tomorrow at the moment
actually, I told the uncle to short the eur 1.2380 at spot 'cos I see there's no s/l hit up there and eur/gbp tame...

dunno whether he listens or not but still just know yelling long chf 1.25 and blaming his earlier eur short bleeding.

Van jv 14:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
THIS IS not a chat line___if something considered important, say it.

HK Kevin 14:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong, nt. Hate to trade against your wife's prediction, but I short again USD/CAD at 1.3162. Also short Cable at 1.8598, only looking for 1.8530.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:29 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt, the dlrcad seems squeezing all the s/t, m/t and l/t together.... think we will soon see 10,20,50,100,200 sma speghetti before we have the explosion.

melbourne farmacia 14:29 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorting for quick contra trade only. Stop at BE and will close when i feel the need to - ie 50 / 70 or 100 pip from entry. GT

Calcutta Vikram 14:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sfx....Yes, the cricket's been good. I agree with you on the Rupee being ranged now. Wish the RBI would get real and allow the currency to move both ways - its high time the market was allowed to grow up, especially now with $110 bln in Reserves

hong kong nt 14:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- GBPJPY this week just likes the eye of storm, quiet...

hong kong nt 14:26 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hong kong jc 14:23 -- jc = jockey club ?

hong kong jc 14:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab, nt & Kevin,
I finally decode what is meant by c9 now. With help of the word of 'uncle'. lol

hong kong nt 14:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 14:16 -- my wife's guess is 1.330...

hong kong nt 14:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nzd 0.6 14:19 -- possible fatal K mgt...

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt//or maybe the c9 can never get their 1.26 this week.

Singapore Sfx 14:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Vikram 14:05 - Long time, indeed.
RE inr , surely its not my imagination but INR always strengthens when we win in cricket ... i guess doubly so this time that we've beaten Pakistan ! .. well played sir !

Seriously tho, as bc has been hinting here, seems that the import side of teh equation playing a bigger role in the way things are going - oil bill and all that .. Looks a bit overdone, but guess its entered the new range ... and likely to stay within it as long oil etc keep thinngs slippery. NRI's from this part of the world relatively ok, since everyone playing the same game so SGDINR kinda stays constant..

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt//my poor dlrcad trades are:
1 @ 1.3345
2 @ 1.3301 x 2
3 @ 1.3150 x 3
4 @ 1.3100
5 @ 1.3060

USA dollar king 14:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Buy DOLLAR wear diamond! feed gold to the dogs.

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
and nt, look at what has done on the dlrcad after yesterday strong outside reversal....
what's the upper target you are eyeing?

hk ab nzd 0.6 14:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt and Kevin,

know what, I went to a local retailer to watch the c9 and uncle index.

Interesting to me is that they all want to long chf first from 1.26 then 1.25.

nt// maybe a short after this retracement looks more appealing.

london phil 14:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
gold 426 down 6 dollars might help the aussie down

boulder dat 14:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
FWIW... euro is up a whopping 25 pips since the pre decision level. should have gone a bit higher and stayed there in my book.

chicago cal 14:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
my technical indicators tell me cable up to 1.8650-80 however, this may take 24hrs. and a loose stop

nyc sa 14:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia ,could u plz give upside and downside levels on cable ? thnx

HK Kevin 14:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:43 GMT, many participants in this forum would like to your train. What's your target?

melbourne farmacia 14:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Cheers guy's - Just Don't ask me about Aussie, i'll lose you money LOL. Cable might still break this top, but after todays run, pull back on the cards IMO. gt

london phil 14:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
gold spiked to 432 on my charts is down 5 dollars from there now so correction time maybe

Indo Allcorp 14:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
1.8402, 1.8505 // 1.8608 ...
Nice call Qindex and this was forcast 4 days ago for Cable.

Also 1.8600 happens to be a 3 week bull channel resistance.

But I will continue to scalp anyhow..no positional trades for me.

Tallinn viies 14:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nyc jk 13:28 GMT - pure luck :)

Calcutta Vikram 14:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi there, Sfx, long time no talk.
What's the feeling among the NRI community on the Rupee, and what's your own reading, mate? Cheers

QC WC 14:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, where is your stop? GT

chicago cal 14:04 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
i bot cable at 1.8415-20 posted it yesterday

Calcutta Vikram 14:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, you are a KING in Cable. Salutations. Better to give you the censored thing to trade than to trade it myself!

Roumeli aek 14:00 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
NJ LT... this forecast is not mine, but he used to be accurate, wiil see

Singapore Sfx 13:59 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
farmacia 13:43 - Salut , mate !

CT DB 13:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
melbourne farmacia 13:43 ,
Gr8 entry!
gt

NJ LT 13:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Roumeli aek 13:50 GMT April 1, 2004
Looks like you are wrong already.
GL

hongkong vforex 13:51 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
在103。30买入美元，止损103，目标104

hongkong vforex 13:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
buy usd/jpy 103.50,stop loss 102.90,limit 104

Roumeli aek 13:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Maybe a corrective action tomorrow

Roumeli aek 13:45 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Re comment on gold, repost
http://www.chartsedge.com/g032804.gif

)toronto( 13:43 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
euro 2400 ? or higher?

melbourne farmacia 13:43 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sold cable at 1.8603 fwiw

Tallinn viies 13:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
toronto( Dr Unken Kat 13:36 - no, just cooling here..

london phil 13:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
gold above 430

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 13:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
tallin viies, , do u expect reversal now ?

boulder dat 13:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
initial claims came in @ 342K. slightly more than expected.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 13:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Resistance for eur/usd is around 1.2405-10, 1.2440-50 IMHO. GL GT

chicago cal 13:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
if anyone wants to get in on this $ bear run usd/chf is a sell now

gl,gt

nyc jk 13:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nice trade viies

Van jv 13:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies/ ECB will move earlier than that. they may have learned , at least visually till now from Japan's.....

Tallinn viies 13:26 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
closed euro long at 1,2368 fwiw

due hourly charts up tunnel touched and slow stochastic crossing down from overbought area...

Nottingham 13:24 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
It would be a surprise if euro trades above 1.2450 before payrolls release tomorrow...closer by, cable has resistance at 1.8580/1.86 and euro at 1.2375/1.24...both may well be pivotal...gl gt

Tallinn viies 13:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trichets unexpectedly hawkish comments indicate to me they want to keep ammo for bad times.

as bc said couple of weeks ago "now every nation on his own".
if euro moves to 1,35-1,40 and it will hurt at that time (ecenomy still slugish) they still have interest rate decision to cool euro a little :)

melbourne farmacia 13:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
dat - yes thanks for that info. Will email some feedback over the weekend. cheers.

shanghai bc 13:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   

JV--At best, they may sell a few hundred tons of gold to feed hungry gold lovers from Asia as their breakfast..A few billion dollars at most..

Eilat Dolphin 13:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trichet/ OK, we understand the compass etc. No need to explain it fifteen times!

boulder dat 13:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks farmacia...

i almost chikened out on my analysis that i emailed you last night when cable droped about 40 pips. it happened around 12:30 nyt. i almost bailed. but, i see the picture developing nicely. the next move should be euro above the 1.2400 level with an eye on the 1.2450 level that it has had trouble with.

Van jv 13:11 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Gold 429 spot--not sure CBs happy with any run at this time , and not sure what they can do....possibly ECB +,,some mild interventions around !.245 EUR..!??

melbourne farmacia 13:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
dat - nice timing mate GT

boulder dat 12:59 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
i'm long cable with the anticipation of a move above the 1.8550 level. a break of this level will open the market up to a move to the 1.9100 highs we saw a few weeks back. with the euro moving higher as the ecb has left no hint of a rate cut any time soon, this will spur the pound as well.

just waiting for the 1.8550 level to bust.

Tallinn viies 12:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
top in place for today I hope...
tommorow new top in Asia (1,2420) and then down to 1,2270 :)

London Keith 12:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
GVI John- Permit me to compliment you on your morning strategy session analyses. They stand head and shoulders above what we pay for over here.

Nottingham 12:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
economic reality, as far as growth is concerned, is not significant to EBC...you have to look at the mentality

melbourne farmacia 12:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
QC WC 08:52 GMT April 1, 2004
I can't see any strong reason to short cable just yet WC . After 1.8465 my next level 1.8517 and 1.8603. Having said that, i've covered all longs from monday at this 1.8517 figure. Current r @ 1.8535/40 ( 23 march high ). So shorting at this figure might bank a some pips , cut on break etc.. GT

Tallinn viies 12:47 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
78 traded on ebs

shanghai bc 12:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   

NT-- You will have your wish tonight but I would not long Dollar tonight yet..Tomorrow is another day with another situation..

GVI john 12:45 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
So far ECB not hinting at lower rates later...

GVI john 12:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Conference is under way

Kaunas 12:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
GVI john 12:33 GMT April 1, 2004

I thought press conference was at 13:30 GMt ;)
(You state that its 12:30)
tsk tsk tsk

hong kong nt 12:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
see if USD/CHF may approach 1.2500 tonight to offer a buying opportuniy...

EZ Rachacha 12:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
EU Fox 12:33 GMT April 1, 2004
My pleasure! and don't forget to be exellent lol!

EU Fox 12:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Rachacha, thks for the cha cha plan.:))

GVI john 12:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
This report is posted twice daily on GVI. For information on how you can access GVI, contact [email protected]
STRATEGY SESSION --New York Open
Opening Levels:
eur/$ 1.23200�$/yen 103.75
DJIA -19 pts� 10-yr 3.83%, -1 bp
PERSONAL OPINIONS:
For a broad range of opening levels click on GVI�s �Market Snapshot�:
CLICK HERE
The March 31 surge in the yen makes a lot more sense now in the wake of the Tankan Survey result overnight. The Tankan Survey is a broad series of sentiment indicators. The press tends to focus only on the Large Manufacturer�s index, which rose to +12 from +7. Nevertheless, the data paint a broad picture of an economy with very solid fundamentals and poised for a strong recovery in the new fiscal year that started today. Of interest, surveyed firms predicted the $/yen would average 108.49 in the first half of the new year and 108.38 in the second half. The data showed that domestic consumption is strong suggesting that Japan is not relying only on exports for growth. One last observation, the sudden sharp reaction to the data 24 hours ahead of time suggests that security with the data might not have been as tight as it might have been. We will just leave it at that.

As for the markets, there is talk now that some Asian fund managers are starting to rethink a move into European securities now and are now considering Japan. This has profound implications for the yen and euro vs. the dollar. We hear out of the markets that sub-100 levels in the $/yen are a �no go� territory for now. Japan is caught in a dilemma because whenever it gains vs. the dollar it advances a like amount by its major Asian competitor, China. The Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar. International pressure for the yuan to revalue can only intensify. Outsourcing is a major political issue in Europe as well. Europe, the U.S. and Japan via the G7 represent an economic bloc that China can ill-afford to ignore. Thus we would not be surprised to see Tokyo to fiercely resist attempts to press $/yen though the 100 level, but this is probably only a temporary state of affairs.

The ECB meeting has been a key focus today. No change in rates was as expected. Odds are the stronger than expected Eurozone PMI data for March did not figure much into the decision-making process. The Press conference at 12:30 GMT will be of major interest.

As for these Monetary policy meetings generally, it is more important when the markets start to fully ANTICIPATE a rate move than when the central banks finally validate the markets. For example a BOE rate hike some time in the next three months is fully priced in. It is the anticipation process that moves the markets in these days of increased central bank transparency. not the announcement itself. The obvious exception is in the case of surprises. Thus MORE important than the future rate cut by the ECB will be if Trichet continues to fuel rate cut speculation.

As for the BOE decision in a week�s time, don�t expect much of a response either way. If they hike, that will be as expected and if they don�t, the markets will just expect a move in May or June. In any case, money markets have already tightened for the BOE so the cost of money is already more dear. It�s the post BOE MPC meeting notes two weeks after each meeting that are more important that the announcements themselves.

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims at 13:30 GMT are seen roughly unchanged vs. 339,000 from a week earlier. The markets will use these as another general indicator of the state of the employment situation. Later at 15:00 GMT, the ISM PMI will be released, a modest decline is seen fro m the 61.4 February reading.
CALENDAR
THURSDAY APRIL 1, 2004
13:30 GMT- US- Weekly Jobless Claims
15:00 GMT- US-Mar ISM PMI: vs. 61.4 in Feb, see 60.0

FRIDAY, APRIL 2, 2004
23:50 GMT- JPN- March Monetary Base
23:50 GMT- JPN- April Money Market forecast
12:00 GMT- EUR- Feb Producer Prices: vs. +0.2% in Jan
13:30 GMT- US- Mar Employment report
Non-Farm Payrolls: vs. +21,000 in Feb, see +120,000
Unemployment rate: vs. 5.6% in Feb, see 5.6

Tallinn viies 12:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Bozton ZuperMan 12:12 - yes

EZ Rachacha 12:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
The market is still looking for itself and I won't be surprise to see the end of the downtrend on euro today(if it breaks through the daily 50 ama). I've got a sell order at 1.2299 and a buy at 1.2365 both for 100 pips profit. There are also 3 white soldiers on the daily chart (in opposition to the 3 crows), that's 3 consecutive days of rise (a sign of strengh). Also, euro has a positive growth right now, usd/chf is negative. I just try to give you clues guys, but what I'm sure is that it is too early to take a postion... GT/GL

jeddah hmad 12:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hello...
shorting eur/usd OK?

Bozton ZuperMan 12:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn, thanx for ur reply. R u Estonia based?

boulder dat 12:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hong Kong NT... about 340K

hong kong nt 12:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
What's Reuter's forecast on jobless claim? thanks...

prague jv 11:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
If you do your homework , it is possible to get lucky . gl

boulder dat 11:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks Kiev. i'll assume GMT.

sin hs 11:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
mkt has priced in unchange, take profit, sell eur.

Kiev S 11:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
boulder dat
12-30

pj amc 11:49 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
what about shorting gbp/usd here?

ham cla 11:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
unchanged

boulder dat 11:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
when is the press conference?

GENEVA FHR 11:45 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ECB unchanged

Tallinn viies 11:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
all rite,
9 minutes to go. if you suddenly see after no cut that euro drops to 1,2265/85 BUY BUY BUY.
target 1,2380

ham cla 11:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
1.2330-35

ham cla 11:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
1.2330-35

ham cla 11:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd: hearing big german on the offer at 2,2330-35

ham cla 11:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd: hearing big german on the offer at 2,2330-35

Swakopmund Liz 11:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Avignon NP 11:30 GMT April 1, 2004
I luv this too! LOL

CARDIFF-PEKING lee 11:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks for advices!

Avignon NP 11:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
I love this :
"The problem with guessing a rate cut is twofold: 1) the chance of being wrong; and 2) the chance of being right. Even if you are right, it doesn�t mean the market will react the way you expect. The point is, guessing a rate cut is only one part of the puzzle, because trading is about doing right, not being right." (by Weiss Research)

Gothenburg XON 11:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
CARDIFF-PEKING

I would let it test 1.8520 first, before shorting...

Melbourne Qindex 11:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : The key quantised level from my 44-day cycle is 421.4. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 427.6.

shanghai bc 11:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   

NT -- Swissy market is not a large market and dominated by very close community..Not hearing anything big today..Market seems to be positioning for Euro rise after the meeting..Good trades..

hong kong nt 11:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
BC -- do you see good size swiss fund buying USD/CHF today? good trades...

Melbourne Qindex 11:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Spot Gold : The key quantised level from my 44-day cycle 421.4. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 427.6.

hong kong nt 11:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- dare to steal chicken at 10, risk 40 pips?

CARDIFF-PEKING lee 11:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hi all,is it ok to sell cable now?

klmp begam 11:04 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SA
THANKS FOR YR IDEA

hong kong nt 11:03 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- looks like the rate differential may give AUD/CAD upside bias for some weeks if not months to go...

London ADK 11:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:52 - And you bc. Always good to see your pearls of wisdom here.

Brisbane L 11:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc I like that

Dnipropetrovsk Lara 11:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SA Newbie
About GBP, I think so

SA Newbie 10:57 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
No, I also do not think they will cut. At the moment trading only cable, long from 1.8208, with a railing sl. Do think that we may have a sympathy movement in cable though.

Dnipropetrovsk Lara 10:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Exceeded forecasts the March data on industrial PMI in the Eurozone for March have strengthened expectations, that at today's session ECB will leave rates without changes

EZ Rachacha 10:53 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sold pound, tight stop

klmp begam 10:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SA

do u think ECB is going to cut me i dont think so coz if they cut they will need more euros to buy oil and i see a bullish flag on 30minuts.

shanghai bc 10:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   

VIKTOR -- It may well exceed the previous high in 1980 in coming years..Good luck

ADK -- Good evening..Good trades..

L -- That chap is waiting for correction to 300 in this mega cycle ?..He may be able to see 300 pre ounce in his next reincarnation as a donkey carrying Gold nuggets :-)..Good trades..

SA Newbie 10:51 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tks everyone.

clon glenn 10:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SA

London is right - 11:45 GMT

SA Newbie 10:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks a loy Begam

London ADK 10:45 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SA 11:45GMT

klmp BEGAM 10:43 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
its 14:45 GMT

SA Newbie 10:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tks Begam, any idea what it is GMT?

Brisbane L 10:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc hi , was watching a really good UK analyst the other day but can't recall his name , however he echoed your view on gold and the com.ccys very bullish after a final dip possible below $300 if I recall but from there up to $800 over the next few years , so I suppose we have to get on each wave and ride it (smile)

klmp BEGAM 10:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ECB 13:45 cet

SA Newbie 10:34 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
What time is the ECB meeting today? TIA

Gen dk 10:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London ADK 10:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc 10:25 - Great points bc. For anyone that has teh right chart package, try and overlay a gbp/usd chart with a gold one. Amazing correlation.

prague viktor 10:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
shanghai bc: thank u sir for this comment,may I ask u sir what is the target for the gold in 2years 500-700,and in this case how it will be the effect on the FX..thank u once more and I wish u G/D

Dnipropetrovsk Lara 10:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks
Good trade for all!

shanghai bc 10:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   

AB --Not exactly on Aud and Nzd but a picture of the forex forest in general..I am almost certain Japan will not do much as long as Oil and commodities are rising till Usd/Yen 100 line is threatened..Even that 45 billion Dollars intervention in March to sell Yen was done when Gold and commodities were correcting and as soon as they finished corrections and rising,Japan did not waste any time to let Yen rise till today..For trading Yen,Pound and Aud and Euro purposes,it is a must to keep Gold chart along with currency charts to see where the general bias is at a given time..Gold leads while currencies, especially Yen,follows..This period is Commodity-centred forex market or Yen market, in a sense..

On medium-term change of Aud,we may have to see how much Gold corrects from its recent tops of 425-430 region..It is likely to make a good correction at Jan.high of 425-430 region taking those currencies down along with it..Then, start a genuine upside, possibly surpassing the previous highs..No matter what,follow where Gold takes you,up or down, and buy Gold on every good dip along with those currencies..

hk ab nz 0.6 10:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
stop move to 128.08 now. See ya later.

Porto PJT 10:24 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 10:15 , eur/jpy excellent call and timing.

Tel-aviv Z.G 10:24 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
welcome lara
u can use this one also
timeanddate.com

Belgrade Knez 10:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dnipropetrovsk Lara

www.timezoneconverter.com

Dnipropetrovsk Lara 10:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tel-Aviv Z.G
Thank you

Tel-Aviv Z.G 10:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tokyo 19:15
London 11:15
New-York 5:15

Dnipropetrovsk Lara 10:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Is it London 10 or 11 ?

hk ab nz 0.6 10:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
what's more is: eur/gbp never lies....

GL everyone, need to see you all during NY.

my eur/jpy s/l will move down to 128.08 once it stabilize under 128 and will set p/t tonight at day low around 127.58 If no 50bp surprise seen.

Brisbane L 10:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Expect a 50bp ECB rate cut in either April or May, says BoA. Suggests the probability of a move Thu is higher than the mkt is pricing in (about 12%), and at the minimum the ECB will suggest that it could ease rates soon. A surprise cut cannot be ruled out, but BoA's baseline scenario remains 50bp easing in May. newswire rts

Tallinn viies 10:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
MMS: No rate cut expected today says German Dep Econ Min

Dnipropetrovsk Lara 10:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tell me please what's the time now in^
Tokyo
London
New York?

hk ab nz 0.6 10:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
bc// sounds that the m/t cycle correction for aud, nzd are finished from your last message?

HK Kevin 09:59 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Just close my short USD/JPY from 104.41 at 103.84. Risk of correction back to 104.60/70.

Avignon NP 09:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
reminder:
on latest uptrend from 1,1415 to 1,2847 day close data, Fibo 0.5 = close support of last week at 1.2131 and 0.382 = 1.23 yesterday close

Brisbane L 09:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Barclays sees ECB cutting rates Thu by 25bp, but notes it's a close call and sees Trichet as a more active president that Duisenberg

LDN SAM 09:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hearg Jap bids + US money centre buyg EUR/USD...Makes any sense?

shanghai bc 09:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   

Euro has been weak on all fronts recently..But given Gold's and commodities' strong rise,Dollar is very weak too..Yen,Pound,Aud and Cad have been largely moving in unision with Gold recently leaving euro a bit odd-man out..The most Commodity chasing currency has been Yen for some months now without the market realizing it..Japan's strategists' Commodity/Yen game is all printed there..Conclusion is,buy Yen,Aud,Cad and Pound as long as Gold and commodities are rising..This is the Commodity bull cycle and even forex market is guided by that commodity bull market..Fwiw..

hk ab nz 0.6 09:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
martin, do u see that the RBNZ 0.6610 news not valid now?

sgp sp 09:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab....yeah, I was looking at the eur/aud px as well and was worried for u. :(

anyway, I cannot do anything today yet as I have to go out..will be back later...

good luck. :)

Stockholm za 09:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw......
DPUD @298
EUR/USD.. Hit todays Z3.....
Pushing on ema 55 & 89.....no spike ( as yet )
In the valley......
Time decay = ??
Happy trades ........all fools

EZ Rachacha 09:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Avignon NP 09:27 GMT April 1, 2004
I know, 1.40 seems absolutly impossible but that is what he said. 1.40 would be catastrophic for the euro zone. negative growth>unemployement>social crisis>civil war!

hk ab nz 0.6 09:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
put a 1 pip s/l 128.29 now.

Gen dk 09:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Avignon NP 09:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ok for not a .5 rate cut but a .25 cut is possible. 1.40 for this year would need serious change in the overal economy both in Europe and in the US !!!!

EZ Rachacha 09:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Concerning ECB, most of the analysts (29/30 interviewed by Bloomberg) said the ECB won't cut the rates and an other analyst said that a eur/usd at 1.40 by the end of the year still makes sense.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:20 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
IF ECB cuts, eur may simply also makes an outside revesal to dip below 1.2150 by NY close.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sp// I am ready to cut the bloody eur/aud long :(.
either life/death.

Nottingham 09:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ham cla 09:10 GMT

just above those former daily bottoms so makes sense...those levels should keep it capped until ECB announcement at least...I doubt market expecting further upside so if reaction high taken it could break the 2350 easily and go to 2375/80 so ought to be some mileage there too, but that reaction high must be taken first...gl gt

hk ab nz 0.6 09:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sp// if ECB does the thing anticipated, you may see something haven't happened for long on eur/jpy.

prague jv 09:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD nice selling levels 1.2340/70 gl. I hope to get fill .

LONDON savage 09:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eurousd broke yesterdays high at 1.2320 id wait a while before placing a short it could continue up imo

ham cla 09:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sorry, eur/usd offcourse

ham cla 09:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hearing french name is selling on the top (1,2340).

sgp sp 09:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab, the aud/nzd was closed already....at b/e the day after opening. now am flat, nothing is open.

EZ Rachacha 09:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Get ready for a nice move against dollar if usd/chf prints 1.2625 bid, IMO.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// are c9 buying aud at this moment?

Belgrade Knez 09:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:53 GMT April 1, 2004

This is very supportive info. Is he going to continue loss money with this trade? LOL

hk ab nz 0.6 09:03 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
time for dlr/cad flapping wings.

perth rick 09:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur (1.2335) gbp (1.8485) good short for 100 pips imvho

hk ab nz 0.6 09:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sp// I exit all aud/nzd....

the long form 1.1460 ended at 1.1480 for the 20 ridiculous pips.

hk ab nz 0.6 09:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
short eur/jpy 128.30

ham cla 08:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
London Rhood 08:42 GMT April 1, 2004
Middle east buyer of euro dollar apparantly..

Ldn Viewer 08:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallin - Nice call , may I ask if you had some insight into any news or numbers to be released ? Just for my guide ..Timing seemed perfect ... TIA

)toronto( Dr Unken Kat 08:53 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
cable s not short yet , need to see how it acts @8510
neckline on dayly

Tallinn viies 08:53 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Genoa nic 08:33 - yeah, I have good contra indicator here :)

customer who never makes money wanted to buy at 45

QC WC 08:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Farmacia, have you shorted GBP yet? What do you think of cuurent levles now that 1.8465 breached?

perth rick 08:47 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
was reading the forum yesterday and all mostly gbp shorters...this is the place to short (at market) 1.8485 gl to u.

Avignon NP 08:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sofia:
the "ecb will not cut yet" rumor started end of last week and we moved from 1.205 to 1.232

Genoa nic 08:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
BWP, you can ask GV for my email

GER ad 08:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ECB,
Despite that only ~7% from economists (Bloomberg survey) expecting a rate cut today this is not impossible. Maybe instead 50 bp in May or June they will do 25 bp cut today. ECB is not Buba and the times have changed. EU is a conglomerate (other rules) and additional the global challenge today is much bigger for the economic zones. With much lower rates in US, Japan, ... how could EU compete without trouble.
With higher rates in UK, Australia, ... the CB playing with the future this economies. Canada has already this experience and tries to correct. The rate is "historic very low" is only an expression.
Not the rate self is important today but the relation to the rates of competitors.
If all the rates higher could be healthier is an other story...

bwp imran 08:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Genoa nic

b i need to talk with u pvt

hk ab nz 0.6 08:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
we have broken eur/jpy 100 wma as well yesterday but not close below it.

SOFIA trader 08:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Avignon NP :

you said that "it's in the chart" - would you elaborate please?

SOFIA trader 08:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Ldn:

I wonder what might make then cut the rates???

I don't have the figures for the economic growth.. but isn't that too brave for the ECB... I know the CONSENSUS is for hold at 2...

Genoa nic 08:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Viies , very nice reading. After all we are still in a 1.2050/1.2450 range. So the latter is probably the key area for a resumption of the uptrend, unlikely IMVHO. Selling in front of 1.24 tomorrow, barring an awful job number may be a good R/R play. It seems you bought a very good dip today ;)

Brisbane 08:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Australian Job Vacancies -3.3% Dec-Feb Vs Sep-Nov

Avignon NP 08:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
I'm short EUR/USD from 1.2301 yesterday SL at 1.2360 .... if ECB does cut it's in the chart already or nearly , if it does then back to 1.20 area

Ldn 08:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
If ECB cuts rates Thu, there's 75% chance that Hungary will cut rates Mon by at least 25bp,Lehman Brothers are saying

hk ab nz 0.6 08:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// nice signal from the aud/nzd movement.

seem the m/t turn comes again from .7660, .6680....

jeddah hmad 08:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML
Thanks
" -39 pips"

ICT ML 08:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
jeddah hmad 08:13 >> I did at 86....no point of growing old with it.

Tallinn viies 08:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Genoa nic 08:01 - may be. to me it seemed that move down to 1,2050 was partly due fear about immidiate rate cut, which of course was wrong assumption, and now after ecb doesnt cut there will be reliefe rally toward the levels where sell of started (1,2450). this time sellers will be hungry to sell from lower levels near 1,24 I guess due they still now that ecb will cut if euro goes higher...
anyway, many many guys think ecb will cut in june

jeddah hmad 08:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Shorting ERU/USD
Better to exit?

Kaunas 08:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn viies 08:04 GMT April 1, 2004


daily moving average i suppose

hk ab nz 0.6 08:11 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
viies, dma daily sma.

Ldn 08:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
French minister says dollar level "acceptable"
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040331/economy_france_euro_2.html

GENEVA FHR 08:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Germany March Mfg PMI up at 54.1 vs 53.4

Tallinn viies 08:04 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 08:01 - I use exponential moving averages. what is dma?

Genoa nic 08:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Viies, don't you think that an easing bias on the press conference could be enough to cool down the Euro?

hk ab nz 0.6 08:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
viies, I have 1.2380 100 dma

Tallinn viies 07:59 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
and if they really cut the rates euro will fall apart and may find itself near 1,19 within 48 hours imho

Tallinn viies 07:57 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
most of market participants expcet ECB doing nothing today.
this decision should help euro up to 1,2320 and more importantly up to 1,2380/90. fwiw

Kaunas 07:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
London opens at 8GMT ?

ldn 07:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Large [AUD/USD] 0.7590 (Tokyo) and 0.7610 (NY) vanilla
option expiries noted in addition to smaller, already noted 0.7600 and 0.7550
strikes.

SOFIA trader 07:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
a simple Q:

speculations around the ECB cut yesteray were mentioned to be behind the EUR rise...

so if rates are unchanged... we must see EUR slide down below... 1.2200??

Dammam Ahmad 07:53 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz
thank you

hk ab nz 0.6 07:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
go to the archive,

check for the post from "bc".

And one of the message posted few days ago explained all the things needed.

jeddah hmad 07:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz
How may I know that London's shorting?

hk ab nz 0.6 07:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// we have outside reversal VS 100 dma on dlr/cad

hk ab nz 0.6 07:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
short 1.2268 if London doesn't short when it opens, exit.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
oops, should be the beginning of the month... fooling around day.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
the end of the month.

hk ab nz 0.6 07:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sell small eur soon?

NZ Bomber 07:34 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
G'day to you all

Has anyone got any views on which way the USDJPY is headed - it doesnt seem to make its mind up !!!

Rivonia PipPirate 07:29 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 07:15 Yes the street price, I almost forgot! Still only having two charts open will make life a lot easier.GL2U2

LAX-LGB SNP 07:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ML ... nothing works like rotten eggs ! :-)

LAX-LGB SNP 07:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
jeddah hmad 07:14 GMT April 1, 2004
i doubt if activism is going to hurt Soros or his EURUSD portfolio
FWIW i'm short on EURJPY since yesterday's open

ML ... nothing works like

St. Louis SAJ 07:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Pip Pirate -- Always remember the unofficial exchange rate of 98.6 loofs to 1 laff... (g!)

jeddah hmad 07:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
LAX-LGB SNP
Sorry for him;what will be the effect on EUR/USD?

ICT ML 07:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Yday they dumped GLUE on him...LOL

LAX-LGB SNP 07:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
George Soros hit by a lob of mayonnaise @ a Trade Conference in the Ukraine ... (no kidding !)

hk ab nz 0.6 07:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// do u think a sudden drop of dlr/hkd is forseeable this month?

Rivonia PipPirate 07:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 06:52 Ok think I get the idea, so one day 1 LIPRA = 100 Loof, next day 1 Lipra = 104.14 Loofs, I can deal with that.

la ej 06:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
going short, target 2224, stop 2278

hk ab nz 0.6 06:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/gbp actually deciding the next move on eur....

farmacia, good work.

melbourne farmacia 06:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Few levels from my Gbp/USD system - 1.8465 - 1.8379 - 1.8326 - 1.8283 - 1.8240. Once gbp takes out a level, odds suggest we target next etc... ( Current high 1.8461, suggested pull back.) GT

St. Louis SAJ 06:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Pip Pirate -- Au contraire, mon ami. The MORE centralised (even in this wonderful parody) the ''control'' over currencies, the more opportunities there will be...just it may be a trifle harder to deal (g!). GL & GT to you!

Sydney alimin 06:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
is swiss data out yet?

SPB Mike 06:49 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Rivonia PipPirate 06:46

Of course @ Lirpa Loofs web site! :))

Rivonia PipPirate 06:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SPB Mike 06:40 Gosh that means we will all be out of a job soon. Where can I get more infos on this?
Thanks
Josepf King

Tallinn viies 06:42 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
bought the euro at 1,2259. target first at 1,2314/19

SPB Mike 06:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Happy Lirpa Loofs trading!!

SPB Mike 06:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
"Global govts and central banks are said to have agreed on a new world currency mechanism in an effort to eliminate the trillons of dollars of wasted on intervention and monetary measures. The new currency, the Lirpa (ccy code Lpa), will follow the launch method of EMU. The non-physical unit will be tradable April 1st 2010, then 100 member entry 3 yrs later. The global central bank president will be Nomis Nnep, a little known but extremely powerful investment manager. The Lirpa ccy will be a decimal unit, with cents called Loofs. A spokesman for the agreement, Joe King said you'd have to be a fool not to join. Central bank vice chair Wan-Lee Kidin warned however, prospective countries had better read the small print twice."

Tallinn viies 06:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ZuperMan - sales my dear.

Bozton ZuperMan 06:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Tallinn, r u in interbank by any chance? thanx

nyc jk 06:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
yeah ML, especially with her majesty haha. I may do that then with the GBP, already short some EUR so have something in it anyway.

Provo John 06:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hey sorry guys that was a bitmap (so may have been slow to load) changed it to a jpeg, so it should load faster.

ICT ML 06:01 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
JK..to be "sure" you could wait for a break below 1.8370...that would be a pattern break on the move up.....but then again...nothin' is ever "sure" now is it...LOL

Dammam Ahmad 06:00 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ICT ML
Thank you

nyc jk 05:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks ML, looking at selling some myself at some point probably soon! gl with it

LAX-LGB SNP 05:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nursing EURJPY shorts and USDCAD longs (back to life !)

GBPUSD (between 200 ma on 4 hourly/50 ma on daily) enroute for 1.8294
AUDUSD after breaking below 0.7607 to head back to 0.75

ICT ML 05:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Provo John 05:48....it broke the line on my chart.......and its previous high so I sold it......was long most of week, closed at 1.2305 at NY close. Have to see if I jumped the gun on it in London time. Thanks for the heads up John.




jeddah hmad 05:50...it should do it in London session if it is going to do it at all friend.

Tallinn viies 05:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
good morning world
hope u all were able to take some profits on euro longs near 1,2320/25 area.
now it is time to try new long position again. area from 1,2210-1,2260 could be new base for push up to 1,2385/90.
stops under 1,2160 today. humble as stops far away today

jeddah hmad 05:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hello ICT ML
When do youexcepect eur/usd will reach 1.2220?
Thank you

CAIRO AG 05:49 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks ML.... well, i just wanted to make sure am on the right direction, ... my charts is showing me 187.20 as expected target in some days..!! Have a good day my friend.

Provo John 05:48 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ML, eur$ currently hitting hrly trendline support(which it nicked)

Euro hrly Chart here


Pardon me guys, testing out some new toys!

ICT ML 05:46 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
JK...did 40 pp stops for now. I might be too early on the gbp but euro broke my support level....targets thinking 1.8300 and re-evaluate from there and 1.2220 on euro and look that over too......

AG...haven't looked at the ninja beast from the east today. But I think it heads towards 185 over time...

Stockholm za 05:45 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw......
USD/ZAR Today......
64639-64495-z1
64317-64029-z2
63768-63563-z3
63420-63276-z4
63098-62810-62522-z5
62344-62201-z6
62057-61852-z7
61591-61303-z8
61125-60982-z9
Happy trades...............

Brisbane L 05:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Aussie any thoughts on it moving Lower was waiting for a bounce but not happening

CAIRO AG 05:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ML /// Good Morning.... Any thoughts on the GBPYEN my friend? TIA and have a good day.

GL & GT to ALL.

nyc jk 05:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ml what you thinking for target and sl for the GBP?

ICT ML 05:34 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
sold a bit of eur-usd and gbp-usd here...could be a tad early, not going to get too attached if wrong ;->

Philippines newtrader 05:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hello there, can anyone tell if there are talks of intervension with the yen?

Margahayu bdg Asti 05:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello all...

Daily Range for cable today 1.8350-1.8510..imo..thx..gl/gt !

Gold Coast martin 05:29 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
good eveving...i want to congratulate the person who posted yesterday or the day before that the aud will fallback to 76 but after it reaches the 7665 level.....grear call...g/l g/t

Bozton ZuperMan 05:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
It seems to me that euro is ripe for a nice nosedive, but cable has some upside potential up to 1.8500, Open to opinions. thanx

Kb SS 05:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
By 0815 GMT, the dollar was trading down at Y104.01. This was up from its low
of Y103.90 but a long way down from 105.64 in New York late Tuesday.
Chertkow said the market is now targeting the next major support level at
Y101.40, with Y95.0 the next major objective after that. "We could have the
same sort of movement we had in 1995," he said, referring to a steep decline
that took the dollar from Y100.00 just after the start of the year to under
Y80.00 in the middle of April.

GER ad 05:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Today's data (GMT):
6:45 Swiss CPI
8:55 Germany unenployment (Feb)
10:00 EU GDP - Q4
10:00 EU GDP forecast 2004 (Q1+Q2)
11:00 Germany Factory order (Jan)
12:00 BOE
12:45 ECB
13:30 ECB news conference
13:30 US Initial Claims
13:30 US NFP (Q4-final)

jeddah Hmad 05:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello there
Would any one tell to where the EUR/USD is going?
thank you

cl krish 05:06 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
can anyone tell me the German IFO figure announced

hk ab nz 0.6 05:02 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Kevin, I am hands off on dlrjpy.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 04:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
just curious HK why do u think the usd/yen is going to 103?

HK Kevin 04:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab, sell USD?JPY at 104.41 an hour ago. Hope could catch the train to 103. Still hold the short USD/CAD position opened last night.

hk ab nz 0.6 04:49 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
jn// nz means nzd not nz location.

lamp means those people who always tell you the opposite of the right direction. Use Cantonese and u will know.

Sydney alimin 04:47 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thx dat

pj amc 04:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
i said short aud/jpy since 79.90. i still think it has alot more downside. just my own opinion. gl and gt

Chicago YM 04:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
long aussie here around 7600 fairly tight stop might be a decent trade.

boulder dat 04:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
alimin...

6:45 new york time.

Sydney alimin 04:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
guys, what time will be the rate decision by ecb? TIA

hk jn 04:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab

where can I get more info on lamp that nt mentioned?

are you in nz? your intitial different now, is it?

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Just in case you are wondering why the bouncing on what support for eur/usd here is what I wrote earlier about it.
Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:29 GMT March 31, 2004
Here are my thoughts for eur/usd if 1.2320 holds fib retracement will be 1.2215-20, 1.2180-85 and 1.2145-50. We have TL at around 1.2260 and 250ma, 20ma around the 1.2235-45 area with good support around 1.2200 area. The news coming out Thursday and Friday will set the tone for the next move for eur/usd. Right now we are in a bullish up trend on this pair IMHO. GL GT

The 20ma has moved up since then and it is around the 1.2270-75 area for the moment.

Wellington am 04:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
closed kiwi short .6632

hk ab nz 0.6 04:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP// dlr/cad did a outside day reversal yesterday fwiw but the 100 sma was broken for 3 days. which made me to puzzle a bit.

hk ab nz 0.6 04:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
refered to nt post on true light.

hk ab nz 0.6 04:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
same thing shared here.

melbourne farmacia 03:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Pressure points on Euro / cable & aussie - 1.2320 / 1.8597 & 0.7680. Euro and Aussie sold off @ these points overnight. Break of points would assume some nice leg work. GT

washington MMM 03:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
covered half position short Aussie @ 7618

Dammam Ahmad 03:20 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP
Thank you very much.
Have good trades

Dallas GEP 03:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
USD/CAD COULD be a wonderful SHORT from 1.3150. Something to watch for later AFTER confirmation

Dallas GEP 03:16 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
YEP Ahmad, that would be good IMO

Dallas GEP 03:14 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ML , I am with you my friend, POUND DOES look heavy but I DAMMMM sure wouldn't count on it!!! LOL 4 hour LOWER BOLLINGER BAND is 1.8048 and that in itself TELLS you why gbp/usd is dangerous.

Dammam Ahmad 03:12 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Limit set at 1.2230;think it is ok?

Thank you

Sydney alimin 03:10 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
i personally think it is a bit earlier to call for usd long at this stage since all moves so far will just be the unwinding of previous run of usd short

Dallas GEP 03:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Ahmad, that SHOULD work. We are getting virtually no bounce UP off this 1.2270 area so that is good. It could go back to 1.2295 pretty easily though so you will have to watch it.

ICT ML 03:03 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
same thing on euro now..it is on its support that must hold it for another leg up to happen I think.

ICT ML 03:00 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
HMM...this is setting up like last week....where I bought 1.8450 stopped out at 1.8435...then bought 1.8400 stopped out at 1.8385..then said screw it and sold 1.8375 and covered at 1.8035.....think gbp-usd is about to selloff soon guys. 30 min already broke the swing pattern..hour;y will if candle closes red, 4 hr is looking that way too......

darn usd-jpy...took second trade on it in a few years earlier..stopped out at 104.25...hate that thing...LOL

hk jn 02:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt, can AUD go to .78? which lamp is that?

Dammam Ahmad 02:58 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP
Thank you
I shorted EUR/USD at 1.2271 stop at 1.2301;is it OK?
Your helps are appreicated.

Dallas GEP 02:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Sorry AHMAD not AHMED!!!

Dallas GEP 02:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Correction stop would need to be 1.2337 on euro shorts

Dallas GEP 02:53 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
That would a set of euro SHORTS NOT LONGS!!! LOL

Dallas GEP 02:52 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
OK I closed a set of euro longs @ 1.2275, will wait and see if it upticks. I also closed a set of Aussie Shorts @ .7621.

hong kong nt 02:51 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
hk ab nz 0.6 02:33 -- yes, apart from J Christ, they're my second best true light in the dark, statistical speaking...

Dallas GEP 02:50 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Ahmed, right now it is bouncing off some support here @ 1.2270. I would wait to see if it ticks up first but if already in your stop would need to be 1.2237 and it should head for 1.2220.

Dammam Ahmad 02:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dear Dallas GEP
What do you think about EUR/USD? I'm shorting it.To where is it heading?
Thank you

Brisbane L 02:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Quito Valdez probably aliens coming to see what a mess we are making of our planet

Quito Valdez 02:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
It's.....it's still there! Oh, wow...sorry...it's the moon. >:(') Outa here..g'nite all. April Fools.

hk ab nz 0.6 02:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
nt// do u mean they are eyeing aud .78?

Those are really true lights.

Quito Valdez 02:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
God! There's a brilliant white disk looking thing high up in the sky...hovering! Huge! MOving slowly to the west.....Geez!

Stockholm za 02:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
fwiw.....
EUR/USD...ema 55 & 89 = Yesterdays pull.........
Its starting to look like a :- censored's Triangle .........
Happy trades.......

Brisbane L 02:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
High Oil prices in the US and a weaker Dollar would have a negative affect of the Economy , wouldnt that encourage a slight rise in rates to try and shore up the Dollar ?

mex sjs 02:20 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
just shorted usdchf here at 1.2690 sl= 1.2730 tgt1=1.2580-1.26 area, if it gets down there then tgt2=1.2500/20...r/r is good...gl & gt...

Provo John 02:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
N Korea: Will Boost Nuclear Force Against US Destroyer

Porto PJT 02:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SF Augustus 02:13 GMT, on 4 hour chart seams nice to fall.

SF Augustus 02:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
This AUD has been an extremely stubborn hussy of late. She has burned me continually, but I am determined to see her fall.

Quito Valdez 02:00 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
I sold my EUR at 1.2304 this AM making 154 pipsqueeks as posted then. Bought USD at the same time...winning thus far again. Note the square hackey hump formation on eur/usd 1 day chart, then note the same square-ish humps in the 30 & 60 day charts. It's one weird formation but it repeats itself constantly in this pair. So if ECB does Foul Up and cut interest rates then I'm settin' pretty with my USD. If ECB doesn't cut interest (and they probably won't), I'm still not worried about it much and will just sell out my USD fast, make some pips hopefully, and go back to Euros to touch 1.24+ and sell off again. Beginner's luck maybe? B747...big guy you'll have to wait for the foot job.

Dallas GEP 01:56 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AUD/JPY shorts pulling on AUD/USD (shorting it also)

Saihat 01:44 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR -hourly

24-1.2264
48-1.2243

120-1.2187
240-1.2243

Dallas GEP 01:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Well you can probably get an entry with stop and limit in fast. that's part of it!!!

Brisbane L 01:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Rate Decision is today isnt it in Europe??

Wellington am 01:40 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas, if I was only as good as trading! lol.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 01:39 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
lol = lots of loot
rofl = rolling on floor laughing
roflmao = rolling of floor laughing my a$$ off
brb be right back
awk away from keybord

Philippines newtrader 01:37 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks GEP
im watching dvd passion of the christ for now..
i'll better wait for the data tonight..LOL

Dallas GEP 01:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AM you are a fast typist!!!!

washington MMM 01:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
singapore Q LOL= laughing out loud

Dallas GEP 01:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
LOL Laughing Out Load

Wellington am 01:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
LOL - Laugh Out Loud
LMAO - Laugh My Arse Off
FWIW - For What It's Worth
IMO - In My Opinion
IMHO - In My Humble Opinion
BTW - By the way

Singapore Q 01:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hi, can anybody tell me what "lol" stands for?

Philippines newtrader 01:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks GEP

washington MMM 01:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
No big shark wanna sell the euro @ these levels to break the 2260?.......lol

Wellington am 01:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Short Kiwi at .6661

Minneapolis U-Genius 01:29 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks everybody, Still holding my position with tight stop.

Dublin CK 01:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks for all this help and assistance from everyone. Its very considerate of you.

Its better than most books or classes on FX trading 101.

Rgds,

CK

Dallas GEP 01:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
genuis, it looked like someone was selling YEN across the board or it COULD have been the jpy longs squaring out for profits.

hong kong nt 01:27 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ab -- short aussie at 60, stop 00...

Dallas GEP 01:25 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Who knows what number will print before weekend??? I think the data releases will drive it, range could be 1.2150 to 1.2450 in my opinion.

QC WC 01:24 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Euro/Yen most likely will rise if Usd/Yen rise faster than drop of Euro IMHO.

Minneapolis U-Genius 01:23 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Gep, can u please update me what's going on with EUR/JPY , i was away from my comp for few hours, But still holding short position. ?
Thanks

Philippines newtrader 01:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
thanks DALLAS GEP
do i have to wait for 1,2300 again before i will position? what do you think?

ca 01:20 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
3 canadian provinces just anoounced balanced budgets, could be great for the canadian dollar

washington MMM 01:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ok GEP thanks buddy

hong kong nt 01:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
AB -- c9 idx update, cut loss at 20/60, change focus to .78. fwiw...

QC WC 01:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Look at Usd/Yen, its rising from oversold levels or intervention?

Philippines newtrader 01:19 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
dallas GEP.
how about for long term trend for euro? is it possible the downtrend would continue before the weekend?

Dallas GEP 01:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
1,18, 1.19 easy targets for euro medium term

Dallas GEP 01:17 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
need .7677 stop. I am feeling BETTER about aussie because I think AUD/JPY will short some more

Philippines newtrader 01:15 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
dallas.
how about for long term trend for euro? is it possible the downtrend would continue?

washington MMM 01:13 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
GEP .......have bad feeling on aussie ........what you think?
have my stop @7675

Dallas GEP 01:11 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
1,2280 is support on Eur but with EU rate decision meeting one could reasonably expect 1.2220 to print.

Philippines newtrader 01:09 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
good morning traders..

any forcast for euro today?

Dammam Ahmad 01:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
I shorted USD/JPY got a few points.It was my first real trade.
Thanks God.
I heard tomorrow will be something about USD interest rate.
Any one knows about that?

Thank you

Dallas GEP 01:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
OK this could be MOF OR dollar gains across the board. Limitted out on Euro/yen shorts (trailing stop). Limited on some Euro shorts @ 1.2278 (trailing stop). Other euro shorts still in with trailing stop. Hope you gbp/jpy short guys had your trailing stops in.

MTL Cain 01:04 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Rafe, can you kindly enough post the barriers of USD/CHF tonight? TIA. GL & GT

Dallas GEP 00:55 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
That Euro spike down earlier must have been bad feed my TP were NOT taken on Euro shorts

Van jv 00:54 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
WASHINGTON - Unemployment rates increased in nine of the 17 battleground states that could decide the 2004 presidential election, with Missouri and Arkansas showing the biggest increases last month, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said Wednesday.



The department's state-by-state survey showed weak job growth in many parts of the country. Jobless rates fell in six of the most contested states and held steady in two others, the report said

vancouver maq 00:47 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:35 GMT April 1, 2004
I changed my mind and I think I'll just stick it out for now with the one position. Hopefully the market will help me out here. Thanks for the fib numbers.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
ML I left a message for you about my eur/usd longs I bailed around 1.2200 left 26 pips on the table at the time but I had a good night sleep which was worth it IMO. I have been flat since then so far the week has been pretty good so far. Just watching like a hunter (or a prey) for the next moves lol.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:41 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
humm, what ccy's trade opposite usd/jpy

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
eur/usd just fell into basement

Dallas GEP 00:38 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
SA, gbp/jpy had a 80 PIP drop.

ICT ML 00:37 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
OMIL my man, how you doing today?

finally covered all the euro and gbp longs after NY session. had nice run on them...the swing could be ending, I'll know in 4-8 hrs if I turn short again.

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
well we all want a crystal ball, but must rely on what we see when we see it, im long the yen from 104.1 so im at break even right now, ill hold a little while and see what the sharks do,

Dallas GEP 00:36 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
E/Y is Euro/JPY

Dallas GEP 00:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
E/Y could potentially drop in the same way GBP/jpy did earlier CAREFUL!!! USD/JPY could follow.

nyc sa 00:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
tankan sentiment +12 above consensus, estimated around 11, however capex is - 6 which is below cosensus perhaps this isthe reason for the small move , but one should wait and see how the ECB report will impact the dollar .

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:35 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
vancouver maq 00:31 GMT April 1, 2004
This all depends on how much you are willing to put on the line but a stop over the 1.2320 cap the eur/usd has is fine. I have posted the retracement lines and support earlier. GL GT

vancouver maq 00:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thanks GEP.

Dublin CK 00:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe,

Thank you for your information every nite.

washington MMM 00:33 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
give them time to sort out the numbers and then you'll see the sharks......LOL

Dallas GEP 00:32 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
maq, stop would need to be 1.2337 on eur short

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Well a bit of excitement in the Asian time lol. GL GT

Dallas GEP 00:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dan, it ain't over yet!!!

vancouver maq 00:31 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
I'm holding a short Eur/USD from 1.2218. Thinking of doubling it here with a tight stop. Any views?

Caribbean! Rafe... 00:30 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
EUR/USD UPPER BANDS 1.2324 1.2338 1.2356 1.2371 1.2385 1.2403 1.2432
LOWER BANDS 1.2295 1.2280 1.2262 1.2247 1.2233 1.2215 1.2186

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:28 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
well i would have expected more volitility out of the usd/jpy hummmmmmmm--

Dammam Ahmad 00:26 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Thank you Dallas & people

pj amc 00:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
dahman..............i say short either aud/jpy or eur/jpy more potential imo............but who really knows

Dallas GEP 00:22 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
YEs L I am.

QC WC 00:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Usd/Yen oversold, buy is safer.

Dallas GEP 00:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Ahmad, may wait to see if there is continuation, I beleive there will be. Run stops in case BOJ comes in.

Brisbane L 00:21 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Dallas GEP hi are you still short Aud/Usd ?

Dammam Ahmad 00:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Hello people
I'm shorting USD/JPY;is it OK?
Thank you

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
or does anyone think their is more downside?

KNOXVILLE TN. Dan-k 00:18 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
does it look like the shorts are out of the usd/jpy ?

Dallas GEP 00:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Trailing I mean

Dallas GEP 00:08 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Run tariling stops to protect profits especially you GBP/JPY short guys

Dallas GEP 00:07 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
Although Yen possies may look stalled, watch for continuation,

sin hs 00:05 GMT April 1, 2004 Reply   
oz data out?